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October 24, 2014

Gardner Leads By 5% in CO, Nunn Leads By 3% in GA, Shaheen Leads By 3% in NH

The big poll this morning has to be the new one from Quinnipiac University for the state of Colorado, where they now show Cory Gardner up by 5%.

US SENATE – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Cory Gardner (R) 46%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 41%
Steve Shogan (I) 5%

This poll was done October 15-21 among 974 likely voters. At this point in Georgia, the whole goal of he Republicans has to be to keep Michelle Nunn from reaching 50%. We have yet another poll, this time from CNN and Opinion Research, showing Nunn with a lead over Perdue.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (CNN/ORC)
Michelle Nunn (D) 47%
David Perdue (R) 44%
Amanda Swafford (L) 5%

This poll was done October 19-22 among 565 likely voters. Meanwhile, the University of Massachusetts Lowell has the race in New Hampshire at a 3% margin.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UMass-Lowell)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49%
Scott Brown (R) 46%

This poll was done October 15-21 among 643 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 8:30 am
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October 23, 2014

Baker Leads Coakley By 9% in MA

Today’s email from the Democrats:

We’re sorry.

We hate flooding your inbox like this.

But you’re our final hope.

We’re quite literally running out of money to pay our staff, feed volunteers, and put ads on the air.
….
Dave — you’ve been there every step of the way with us. Now, in these final 12 days we need one last big push to get us over the finish line. Can you chip in whatever you can right now?

So if I don’t give them money, their volunteers won’t eat? Oh well. In Massachusetts, The Boston Globe how has Charlie Baker taking an incredible 9% lead over Martha Coakley.

GOVERNOR – MASSACHUSETTS (Boston Globe)
Charlie Baker (R) 45%
Martha Coakley (D) 36%

This poll was done October 19-22 among 500 likely voters.

Polls From KS, GA, IL, NH

Rasmussen Reports latest look at the US Senate race in Kansas puts Greg Orman up by 5% on Pat Roberts.

US SENATE – KANSAS (Rasmussen)
Greg Orman (I) 49%
Pat Roberts (R-inc) 44%

This poll was done October 20-21 among 960 likely voters. Also from Rasmussen is a new poll in Illinois which seems to confirms this morning’s poll.

GOVERNOR – ILLINOIS (Rasmussen)
Bruce Rauner (R) 48%
Pat Quinn (D-inc) 47%

This poll was done October 20-22 among 1000 likely voters. American Research Group joins the parade of pollster showing race in New Hampshire close.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49%
Scott Brown (R) 48%

This poll was done October 19-22 among 600 likely voters. Finally Insider Advantage becomes the third pollster in a row to show Michelle Nunn ahead of David Perdue.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (IA)
Michelle Nunn (D) 47%
David Perdue (R) 45%
Amanada Swafford (L) 4%

The Republicans best hope here might to be make sure Nunn doesn’t hit 50%. This poll was done October 21-22 among 704 likely voters.

Rauner Leads By 2% in IL, Shaheen Leads By 2% in NH, Ernst Leads By 2% in IA

It has already been a busy morning for polls and we start with the new poll from The Chicago Tribune that has Bruce Rauner now back ahead of Pat Quinn.

GOVERNOR – ILLINOIS (Chicago Tribune)
Bruce Rauner (R) 45%
Pat Quinn (D-inc) 43%
Chad Grimm (L) 4%

This poll was done October 16-21 among 800 likely voters. CNN and Opinion Research have the race in New Hampshire down to 2%.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/ORC)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49%
Scott Brown (R) 47%

This poll was done October 18-21 among 645 likely voters. The other big poll this morning comes from Quinnipiac University for the state of Iowa where they have Joni Ernst up by 2%.

US SENATE – IOWA (Quinnipiac)
Joni Ernst (R-inc) 48%
Bruce Braley (D) 46%

This poll was done October 15-21 among 964 likely voters.

October 22, 2014

Hogan Within 1% of Brown in MD

One from my home state where Larry Hogan paid Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research to put out a poll claiming he is within a single percentage point of Anthony Brown.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (WPAOR)
Anthony Brown (D) 42%
Larry Hogan (R) 41%

This poll was done October 19-20 among 500 likely voters.

Split Results in NH, McConnell By 8% in KY, Gardner By 7% in CO

We have two polls for the state of New Hampshire today, one from New England College and one from Public Policy Polling.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (NEC)
Scott Brown (R) 48%
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 47%

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49%
Scott Brown (R) 45%

The NEC poll was done October 16th among 461 likely voters. The PPP poll was done October 20-21 among 764 likely voters. Voter/Consumer Research has come out with a new poll for the US Senate race in Kentucky that has Mitch McConnell up by 8%.

US SENATE – KENTUCKY (VCR)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 49%
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41%

This poll was done October 16-21 among 815 likely voters. Earlier this afternoon, USA Today and Suffolk University are showing the race in Colorado turning into a mini rout.

US SENATE – COLORADO (USAT/Suffolk)
Cory Gardner (R) 46%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 39%

This poll was done October 18-21 among 500 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:20 pm
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Orman leads Roberts By 2% in KS

probably the most anticipated poll of the day is now out. Greg Orman leads Pat Roberts by 2% in the state of Kansas according to Gravis Marketing.

US SENATE – KANSAS (Rasmussen)
Greg Orman (I) 47%
Pat Roberts (R-inc) 45%

GOVERNOR – KANSAS (Gravis)
Paul Davis (D) 49%
Sam Brownback (R-inc) 44%

This poll was done October 20-21 among 1124 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 4:56 pm
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Ernst Leads By 1% in IA

Democrats have another message in this morning’s email:

Subject: It’s over. It’s done.

It’s over. It’s done.

We have no ideas left.
….
Dave — we don’t want to miss out on this opportunity to finally defeat the Republicans. So we’re putting all of our hopes in you answering President Obama’s call-to-action today.

Seriously, we’re at the end of our rope here. You’re our only hope.

If I am their only hope, then they are in some trouble. Another day, another random state poll from Monmouth University. This time it is the state of Iowa.

US SENATE – IOWA (Monmouth)
Joni Ernst (R) 47%
Bruce Braley (D) 46%

This poll was done October 18-21 among 423 likely voters.

Polls For GA, CT, FL

In Georgia, Survey USA’ latest poll has David Perdue inching closer to Michelle Nunn.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
Michelle Nunn (D) 46%
David Perdue (R) 44%
Amanda Swafford (L) 4%

Nodates for he poll are given in the article. Quinnipiac University has polls from Connecticut and Florida this morning.

GOVERNOR – CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac)
Dannel Malloy (D-inc) 43%
Tom Foley (R) 42%
Joe Visconti (I) 9%

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
Rick Scott (R-inc) 42%
Charlie Crist (D) 42%
Adrian Wyllie (L) 7%

Both polls were done October 14-20 among likely voters.

October 21, 2014

Gardner Leads in CO, Hagan Leads in NC, Snyder Leads in MI

Monmouth University seems to branching out this year and they join a string of pollsters showing Cory Gardner with a lead over Mark Udall in Colorado.

US SENATE – COLORADO (Survey USA)
Cory Gardner (R) 47%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 46%

This poll was done October 17-20 among 431 likely voters. Meanwhile Survey USA is out with a new poll showing Kay Hagan with a 3% lead over Thom Tillis in North Carolina.

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Survey USA)
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 46%
Thom Tillis (R) 43%
Sean Haugh (L) 6%

This poll was done October 16-20 among 568 likely voters. Finally this evening, Rick Snyder seems to be pulling away in Michigan according to EPIC-MRA.

GOVERNOR – MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA)
Rick Snyder (R-inc) 47%
Mark Schauer (D) 39%

This poll was done October 17-19 among 600 likely voters.

US SENATE 2014

Party Prediction Gain/Loss
GOP 51 6
DEM 46 -7
IND 3 1

US HOUSE 2014

Party Prediction Gain/Loss
GOP 238 4
DEM 197 -4