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February 8, 2016

Conflicting Views of NH From CNN and Emerson College

Emerson College Polling Society, who was in the top three pollsters when it came to the Republican race in Iowa, is out with their final look at the race in New Hampshire.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (ECPS)
Trump 31%
Jeb Bush 16%
John Kasich 13%
Marco Rubio 12%
Ted Cruz 11%
Carly Fiorina 7%
Chris Christie 6%
Ben Carson 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (ECPS)
Bernie Sanders 54%
Hillary Clinton 42%

This poll was done February 4-7 among likely voters. CNN’s final poll for the state of New Hampshire seems to show a much different pictures, showing Marco Rubio still in pretty good shape to get second place despite the media hyperventilation about the debate while Sanders has a much bigger lead over Clinton.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (CNN/WMUR/UNH)
Trump 31%
Marco Rubio 17%
Ted Cruz 14%
John Kasich 10%
Jeb Bush 7%
Carly Fiorina 5%
Chris Christie 4%
Ben Carson 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (CNN/WMUR/UNH)
Bernie Sanders 61%
Hillary Clinton 35%

This poll was done February 4-8 among likely voters. Keep in mind, CNN was downright awful in Iowa, claiming Sanders was going to win by 8% and Trump was going to win by 11%.

Trump Leads Kasich By 11% in NH

Gravis Marketing has put out a last minute for the race in New Hampshire and they now show John Kasich as the runner up to Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Gravis)
Trump 28%
John Kasich 17%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 14%
Ted Cruz 11%
Chris Christie 6%
Carly Fiorina 5%
Ben Carson 3%
Rand Paul 1%
Rick Santorum 1%

This poll was done February 7th among 705 likely voters. I have to think we will see some more polls before the night is done.

Morning Tracking Polls for NH

The big football news out of last night came before the game when Joe Flacco, not even three months out of surgery for a torn MCL, walked without a limped during the SB MVP celebration. Super Bowl LI, here we come.

The morning UMass-Lowell/7News tracking poll shows a jumbled mess for second place among the Republican field.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (UMass-Lowell/7News)
Trump 34%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 10%
Bush 10%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (UMass-Lowell/7News)
Sanders 56%
Clinton 40%

This poll was done February 5-7 among likely voters in each party. American Research Group has also put out their latest numbers this morning.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (ARG)
Trump 30%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 16%
Cruz 10%
Bush 9%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 3%
Carson 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (ARG)
Sanders 53%
Clinton 41%

This poll was done February 6-7 among likely voters in each party.

February 7, 2016

Polling Avalanche in New Hampshire

We have four polls so far this morning for the state of New Hampshire this morning from CNN/WMUR/UNH, UMass-Lowell/7News, American Research Group and Monmouth University. Here are the results.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (CNN/WMUR)
Trump 33%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 11%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 6%
Christie 4%
Carson 2%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (UMass-Lowell/7News)
Trump 36%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 13%
Bush 10%
Kasich 9%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 4%
Carson 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Trump 30%
Kasich 14%
Rubio 13%
Bush 13%
Cruz 12%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Carson 4%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (ARG)
Trump 31%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 17%
Cruz 9%
Bush 9%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 2%
Carson 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (CNN/WMUR)
Sanders 58%
Clinton 35%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (UMass-Lowell/7News)
Sanders 57%
Clinton 40%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (ARG)
Sanders 53%
Clinton 42%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Sanders 52%
Clinton 42%

Check out the links for the dates, but they are within the last three days among likely voters.

February 5, 2016

Another NH Poll Shows Rubio in 2nd Place

Apparently the University of Massachusetts has competing polling firms within their own system. We know about the UMass-Lowell tracking poll and now UMass-Amherst has their own poll out of New Hampshire that they are doing with WBZ.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (UMass-Amherst/WBZ)
Trump 35%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 11%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (UMass-Amherst/WBZ)
Sanders 58%
Clinton 35%

This poll was done January 29-February 2. In this day and age, the dates of this poll being released only today make it borderline ancient.

Three New NH Polls

In Iowa, Gravis Marketing’s final poll said Hillary Clinton was going to defeat Bernie Sanders by double digits and Donald Trump would beat Ted Cruz by 4% with Marco Rubio only getting 13%. We see how that turned out. With that in mind, here is Gravis Marketing’s latest poll for the state of New Hampshire.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Gravis)
Trump 29%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 15%
Kasich 13%
Bush 8%
Christie 6%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 4%
Paul 1%
Santorum 0%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Gravis)
Sanders 58%
Clinton 42%

This poll was done February 2-4 among likely primary voters in each party. Suffolk University and The Boston Globe have their view of the race in New Hampshire and show very similar numbers on the GOP side, but a single-digit race in the Democratic side.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Suffolk)
Trump 29%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 13%
Bush 10%
Cruz 7%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 4%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Suffolk)
Sanders 50%
Clinton 41%

This poll was done February 2-4 among likely primary voters. Adding to the NH pile is MassINC and WBUR.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (MassINC/WBUR)
Trump 29%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 9%
Bush 9%
Fiorina 8%
Christie 6%
Carson 4%
Gilmore <1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (MassINC/WBUR)
Sanders 54%
Clinton 39%

This poll was done February 2-4 among likely voters. Looking at just these three polls and seeing that Carly Fiorina is either tied with or ahead of Ben Carson, I have to say it is a little ridiculous that Fiorina is being excluded from the debates while Carson is included. Meanwhile Rasmussen Reports awoke from their slumber to release a new national poll on the Democratic side.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Clinton 50%
Sanders 32%

This poll was done February 3-4 among likely voters.

Rubio Surges Nationally, Leads Clinton by 7%

The polls, I am sure, are going to be coming fast over the next few days and I will try to keep up as I can. This morning, Quinnipiac University, who absolutely botched the Republican caucus in Iowa on Monday, is out with a new national poll this morning.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Quinnipiac)
Trump 31%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 19%
Carson 6%
Bush 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 2%
Gilmore 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY(Quinnipiac)
Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Quinnipiac)

Clinton 46%
Trump 41%

Clinton 45%
Cruz 45%

Rubio 48%
Clinton 41%

Sanders 49%
Trump 39%

Clinton 46%
Cruz 42%

Rubio 43%
Clinton 43%

This poll was done February 2-4 among 1255 registered voters. Meanwhile, the latest tracking poll from UMass-Lowell and 7News has Trump falling once again.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (UMass-Lowell/7News)
Trump 34%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 8%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (UMass-Lowell/7News)
Sanders 55%
Clinton 40%

This edition covers February 2-4 among likely voters. On the flipside, American Research Group shows Donald Trump gaining a couple of percentage points.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (ARG)
Trump 36%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 14%
Cruz 12%
Bush 8%
Christie 6%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%
Gilmore 0%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (ARG)
Sanders 54%
Clinton 38%

This edition of the poll covers February 3-4 among likely primary voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:04 am
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February 4, 2016

Rubio Surges to 11% Behind Trump, Sanders Leads by 20% in NH

CNN and WMUR have put out a tracking poll for the state of New Hampshire that shows Marco Rubio surging into second place and now within 11% of Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (CNN/WMUR/UNH)
Trump 29%
Rubio 18%
Cruz 13%
Kasich 12%
Bush 10%
Christie 4%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 2%
Gilmore 0%

This edition covers February 2-4 among likely voters. Meanwhile, NBC News, The Wall Street Journal, and Marist College have the Democratic side out and it shows Bernie Sanders with a 20% lead over Hillary Clinton.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Marist)
Sanders 58%
Clinton 38%

This poll was done February 2-3 among 567 likely primary voters.

ARG Puts Out New NH Tracking Poll

Contrary to UMass-Lowell, American Research Group show Bernie Sanders gaining in New Hampshire compared to pre-Iowa, however they end up at about the same place.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (ARG)
Sanders 54%
Clinton 38%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (ARG)
Trump 34%
Rubio 14%
Kasich 13%
Cruz 12%
Bush 8%
Christie 6%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%
Gilmore 0%

These poll were done February 2-3 among likely voters. This will be a tracking poll and ARG will be releasing a new poll everyday.

Trump Collapses Nationally

I saw these new numbers from Public Policy Polling last night and thought they were interim numbers for the poll, but apparently it was for the full poll.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Trump 25%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 21%
Carson 11%
Bush 5%
Kasich 5%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
Fiorina 3%
Gilmore 1%
Santorum 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (PPP)
Clinton 53%
Sanders 32%

This poll was done February 2-3 among 531 primary voters on the GOP side and 517 primary voters on the Democratic side.

Posted by Dave at 2:19 pm
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