As they say in the news business.  More details to follow?

I have ruled out any connection with Michael Jackson.   Maybe she thinks she can find 97 electoral votes and get to 270?  Or perhaps based on census estimates she only needs about 92 votes in the electoral college.  I think its very possible that unemployment will be over 10% in 2012 and that could be tough for Obama to win re-election.

 Who knows? 

Our Healthcare industry is massive and is estimated at 15% of GNP.  Its not just our hospitals but extents to Doctors to medicine aisle at thousands of retail outlets.  I want to examine why the Obama Effect is so harmful to this industry.

1st let’s be clear we have a two tier medical system.  The lower tier  is for those who are uninsured, poor, indigent, on welfare or use the VA medical system.  There are public hospitals, rural medical clinics, public health outlets, church run clinics and the VA system to serve this portion of the population.  There is medical provided but its at a lower level aimed more at care then prevention.  The locations tend to be centrally located near the population that is served and you can count on waiting for your services.  In some cases, there is lots of waiting time involved, the doctors in this tier have less impressive resumes and the equipment is little more dated.  This is no knock on the VA system and the honor due our Vets.  Its just the reality that while I might wait 40 minutes to see a doctor my brother has waited hours.  I have also seen him wait four hours to get a RX filled.  Of course he choose to wait for it.  He could have let them mail it to him in three days or so.  So to repeat you can get medical care in this tier but its not the Mayo clinic style care.

Then there is the second tier that the majority of Americans get their healthcare.  This is where the insured, the middle class, the upper class and most of our seniors get their healthcare.  Its where the better doctors practice, there is better equipment and the hospitals/offices are much better.  While there is an emphasis on treatment in this tier there is also a great deal of time and money spent on prevention.  A good example of this is Colon cancer. 50,000 people die every year from Colerectal cancer.  My wife and I have both had Colonoscopies in the last year or so (we are 51 and 52) and thankfully we got great test results.  We both have excellent Colons and have been given 10 year passes on any further Colon tests.  These tests are expensive (about $1500 each) and we paid for it with our own money.  Our private plan does not cover this test.   This money, however, has given us a much better chance of avoiding this cancer.  Plus if we had we would have a much better chance of surviving it .  The 40% of adults who cannot afford this test at age 50 will have a much greater chance of dying from this disease then my wife and I.  We traded our money for peace of mind. 

This whole second tier medical system is built around this sort of treatment plan.  We see better doctors and have a series of annual tests that cost us money but Lord willing we are trading money for health.  As much as Providence will allow us to.   I could go on and on about annual physicals, pap smears, mamograms, stress tests and all sorts of other things that our middle class living affords us as far healthcare.  The vast majority of money in the Healthcare business is geared towards this second tier of the system. 

So here’s the Obama Effect.  The democrats want to tear down the barriers between the two systems.  Oh their intial plan is to just provide medical insurance for some folks but their ultimate goal to have a one size fit all system.  Everyone in the medical field knows this.  In addition the funding plan is pretty simple those of us who pay for the second tier system will need to not only pay for our coverage but provide money to lift the 1st tier coverage up to our level.  Look the Dodd plan and where the 50 billion a year comes from.  Its from businesses, individuals can afford to pay and from the current medical providers.  Now why is the growth in the medical part of the GNP slowing? Because why should money be invested in a business when conditions are so uncertain?  Obama is hurting this sector by causing extreme uncertainty as to whether your future investment will generate a profit. 

The Obama administration has released an Irainian with American blood on his hands for the bodies of 2 dead Brits. Ace has the story here…

ace.mu.nu/

A brief excerpt is here…

The Obama administration has not only released Laith Qazali, it has been in negotiations to release his brother, Qais Qazali, as well. The negotiations and release were carried out in flagrant disregard of the longstanding policy against exchanging prisoners for the release of hostages. Undermining that policy endangers all American troops and civilian personnel — as well as the troops and civilian personnel of our allies — by encouraging terrorists to kidnap them to use as bargaining chips.

article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=ODFkYTU2MjBmMTE5MDUzZTEzZWMyMTE5ZWZjNWI4Mjg=

www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/01/the_karbala_attack_a.php

Today there   was another dismal unemployment report .  Not to sound like a broken record but I see unemployment rising to around  10.5% by early next year and then it may  plateau at that level or drop just a bit.  I see a tepid recovery and one reason for that is the “Obama effect”.  I had enough discussion about  curves last  year so now I am spectulating on an  ”effect”.

In simple words (what other words could I use) here is how I define the “Obama effect”.   Any economic uncertainty that is generated by the actions or plans of President Obama and the Democrats in DC will have a negative effect on economic growth.  Based on historical precedence we have a huge fiscal stimulus out there plus a huge monetary stimulus so where is the growth?  So where are  the jobs?  The “Obama effect” is killing economic growth and hindering job creation. 

Here’s an exhibition #1-Obama-Dodd-Kennedy health plan #2:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abCGiXSLGKfE

This $611 billion plan is designed as revenue neutral?  Do you need a bridge in Brooklyn?  How  about that $750 tax on any employee without health insurance.  Or $375 tax on any employee who is a part time employee without health insurance?  Of course if you shrink your business down to 25 employees you can avoid this mandate.  The same is true if you shift to temp workers from an agency?  Can you see the Obama effect in this plan?  If you are a small employer and manage to get smaller you save money.  Does this work against job creation?  You bet and that’s “Obama effect”.

For that matter where does the 50 billion dollars come from that make this plan revenue neutral?  I can assure you there will be s a series of mandates-benefit cuts to doctors or taxes on employer or employee benefits.  All these will be a hindrance to job growth.  Oh you may see more folks with health insurance but there will be less jobs.

How about Cap and Trade or Obama energy policy affecting job creation.  Say you have a smokestack industry that needs to expand or you use lots of electricity in the creation of your product.  Do you  plan on expanding in Ohio, where you may face huge energy cost increases or do you go to Mexico or China?  What’s estimate of what electrical costs will be  over the next 5 years? There’s no crystal ball out there for that guess.  So you do not know what Cap and Trade will do?  Reason dictates that if you are uncertain you do not invest money and therefore you do not create jobs.  Its Obama Effect pure and simple. 

Finally on a family level what do you do when faced with uncertainty?  Say you work in Healthcare (15% of GNP) and your employer faces an uncertain business landscape.  Or your company is in the energy business or deals with “Cap and Trade ” issues.   Where there is economic uncertainty one hangs on to as much cash as you can.  You add to your savings and pay down debt.  That puts a damper on economic growth as savings and paying down debt puts a temporary brakes  on growth.  Ironically 8 years of “Obama effect” (bite my tongue) would almost certainly look like an 8 year period  of slow growth as  Americans add huge amounts to household savings  as they pay off massive  amounts of household debt.   In a way that’s the outcome I want and the next time we get a pro growth GOP President we  will see a period of unprecedented economic activity as pent up demand is unleashed.

On this happy note have a great day.

here is a clean slate…

talk about anything you want…

We get another poll for the gubernatorial race in New Jersey from Fairleigh Dickinson University. In this poll, Christie holds a 6% lead over Corzine.

GOVERNOR - NEW JERSEY (FDU)
Chris Christie (R) 45%
Jon Corzine (D-inc) 39%

This is the first poll in the month of June that Christie did not have a double-digit lead and the closest Corzine has been to Christie since April in any poll. This poll was done June 22-29 among 803 registered voters.

For more polls from New Jersey, click here.

I guess after years of seeing headlines during the Bush 43 era I should be jaded by now.  I remember headlines like “Inflation up .2% in March and investors are fearful for the future”.  Or “200,000 jobs are created in April but layoffs loom”.  It seemed that folks at the New York Times or CNN could take the best of good economic news, during the Bush years, and twist it into sad news.

Now we are seeing the exact opposite as CNN is searching high and low for the happiest glimmer of sunshine among the clouds.  There is this newsline from them this morning

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/01/news/economy/job_cuts/index.htm?postversion=2009070108

Yes the job market is showing some improvement and CNN had that headline out before any other News service.  Mercy they were fast and perhaps furious.  Now the followup stories from Ruethers, Bloomberg and the Wall street Journal have not been so upbeat as CNN.  They focus instead on the high, relatively speaking, level of job cutbacks in June.  For the record  the New York Times headline on the story is “Job cuts are down in June from May”.  That’s factually correct but 99% of economists would still say that the job cuts are very high. 

So is the reduction in rate of job losses the story or is the very high level of job losses the story?  In the Obama era CNN and the other liberal media sites will focus on the Sunshine. 

Well matters are pretty settled in Minnesota as the Supreme court has ruled for Al Franken.  What a bad joke this is

http://www.startribune.com/

Coleman has conceded and Pawlenty is signing the certificate so more bad news on the doorstep.   I am too tired to relive the Franken/Coleman saga as of right now.  I will do an point by point post on this outcome later. 

On a more local front after hours of hurry and wait I was selected late on Monday to sit on a jury.  By law and the Judge’s instructions that’s about all I can say.  I had hours of pointless waiting on Monday.  Today there was more pointless waiting and a quick trial.  Tommorrow we sit in judgement. 

Comments??

New poll numbers for the fight to replace Judd Gregg in the United States Senate from American Research Group.

US SENATE - NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG)
Paul Hodes (D) 40%
John Sununu (R) 34%

This is identical to the 6% margin Hodes had in poll done by ARG in March. This poll was done June 27-29 among 558 registered voters.

As expected, Public Policy Polling released their latest poll for the race in new Jersey and it shows what many other polls have shown, a solid lead for Republican Chris Christie.

GOVERNOR - NEW JERSEY (PPP)
Chris Christie (R) 51%
Jon Corzine (D-inc) 41%

His lead among Independents is a ridiculous 60%-26%. Corzine’s approval rating in this poll stands at 36%. This poll was done June 27-29 among 1094 likely voters in New Jersey.

For more polls from New Jersey, click here.

More data from that Mason-Dixon poll from yesterday for the state of Florida. This time we have numbers for the gubernatorial race.

GOVERNOR - FLORIDA (Mason-Dixon)
Bill McCollum (R) 41%
Alex Sink (D) 35%

Alex Sink (D) 43%
Paula Dockery (R) 18%

Paula Dockery is a State Senator in case you had no idea…like me. In the primary race on the GOP side, McCollum has a solid lead.

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Bill McCollum 53%
Paul Dockery 4%

This poll was done June 24-26 among 625 registered voters.

Republicans held the Governor’s seat in Massachusetts for a number of years prior to Democrat Deval Patrick winning in 2006. Patrick may have trouble keep it in Democratic hands if the latest poll from Scott Rasmussen is to be believed.

GOVERNOR - MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen)
Christy Mihos (R) 41%
Deval Patrick (D) 40%

Deval Patrick (D) 41%
Charlie Baker (R) 36%

This poll was done June 24th among 500 likely voters. Remember, Mihos was the one who ran as an Independent three years ago.

Public Policy Polling is teasing numbers from a poll they will release later today for the gubernatorial race in New Jersey.

Charlie Crist and Kendrick are the frontrunners for their respective party nominations for the US Senate according to a new poll from Mason-Dixon Polling.

US SENATE - FLORIDA - GOP PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Charlie Crist 51%
Marco Rubio 23%

US SENATE - FLORIDA - DEM PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Kendrick Meek 27%
Corrine Brown 12%

In the General Election race, Crist dominates both Meek and Brown.

US SENATE - FLORIDA (Mason-Dixon)
Charlie Crist (R) 48%
Kendrick Meek (D) 26%

Charlie Crist (R) 55%
Corrine Brown (D) 24%

Rubio wasn’t apparently included in the General Election polling match ups. This poll was done June 24-26 among 625 registered voters.

I thought this day would never come.  I report for Jury Duty today.  I will be one of 300 or so folks in this week’s jury pool.  Its a short week-Friday is a county holiday (3rd of July)- so nothing much should be going on this week.

 Tennessee has eliminated nearly every exemption or reason to be left out of Jury selection.  So you pretty much gotta serve but usually only a week and you get a 10 year exemption before you can be called again.

The selection of your time for jury service is a prelude of how medicine would be allocated under Obamacare.  Some 4000 citizens of Shelby county (Memphis) are called downtown to the convention center.  We hear 20 minutes of uesless spiel and then we stand in line to see what week we are assigned.

There are roughly 13 weeks in question so if you have a vacation scheduled or a work project due that week you can try to avoid service that week.  For the most part you just stand and line get the luck of the draw.  If you happen to be in line when your vacation week is being handed out you can go to the line and wait for another week.   

I have been through jury duty once before (about 12 years ago) so the routine is pretty set.  There will be one hour spiel, with a few pointless questions and then waiting.  Most likely nothing will happen today and we will be dismissed at noon.  For all this I get $11 and out of that money I have to pay for parking, gas and food.  Thankfully I have a library book so that part is cheap.

Good Morning