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April 28, 2016

Biggest Polling Loser From MD – Gravis Marketing

Since this is mainly a site dedicated to polling, I could not this primary night in Maryland on Tuesday pass without mentioning the polling disaster in Maryland’s District 1 from Gravis Marketing. If you remember this post from January, Republican challenger Mike Smigiel released a poll from Gravis Marketing claiming he had a 58%-29% lead over incumbent Andy Harris. It actually led to some to claim Harris might be in trouble.

The final results from Tuesday night? Andy Harris defeated Mike Smigiel by a blowout margin of 78%-11%.

April 26, 2016

Election Night Thread

More fun….

April 25, 2016

My Ballot for Tuesday

It is finally Election Day here in Maryland and tomorrow morning, I will be casting this ballot.

PRESIDENT
[X] John Kasich

US SENATE
[X] KATHY SZELIGA

US HOUSE 3
[X] MARK PLASTER

DELEGATES TO GOP CONVENTION (Choose Up To 3)
[X] Janet Moye Cornick (Uncommitted)
[X] Mary Beth Tung (Christie)

ALT DELEGATES TO GOP CONVENTION (Choose Up To 3)
[X] Joyce Pope (Rubio)
[X] Jeff Robinson (Rubio)

BOARD OF EDUCATION (Choose Up To 3)
[X] Vicky Cutroneo
[X] Christina Delmont-Small

I decided to do some bullet voting for delegates and the Board of Education instead of choosing all three spots. Normally in Maryland, which Presidential candidate wins the primary drags their assigned delegates across the line as well and right now, that would be Donald Trump if the polls hold.

April 22, 2016

MD-SEN: Van Hollen Opens Up Huge 16% Lead

Keeping up my sporadic posting, I will stick with my home state and the new poll from Monmouth University that has Chris Van Hollen now opening up a huge lead over Donna Edwards in the Democratic primary for the US Senate.

US SENATE – MARYLAND – DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Chris Van Hollen 52%
Donna Edwards 36%

This poll was done April 18-20 among 300 likely primary voters.

April 19, 2016

Trump Leads GOP, Van Hollen Leads Edwards By 9% in MD

As you can probably guess form my sporadic posting of late, my time is extremely limited and sometimes certain things have to fall by the wayside and unfortunately this site is one of those things I’ll keep posting as I can and I am not going to miss an opportunity to post a new poll for the state of Maryland from Public Policy Polling.

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Trump 43%
Kasich 29%
Cruz 24%

US SENATE – MARYLAND – DEM PRIMARY (PPP)
Chris Van Hollen 42%
Donna Edwards 33%

The biggest surprise here is the surge by Chris Van Hollen moving ahead of Donna Edwards on the Democratic side. This poll was done April 15-17 among 310 primary voters.

April 17, 2016

Open Thread Sunday

Just trying to squeeze in clean thread….

April 13, 2016

Trump Leads GOP in MD, Two Polls Conflict On Who Is In Second Place

Not often we get polls for the state of Maryland so I will take advantage of this to provide the results for two new polls from Marist College and Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND (Monmouth)
Trump 41%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 19%

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND (Marist)
Trump 47%
Cruz 29%
Kasich 24%

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND (Marist)
Clinton 63%
Trump 27%

Clinton 55%
Kasich 38%

Clinton 60%
Cruz 31%

The Marist poll was done April 5-9 among 368 likely primary voters. The Monmouth poll was done April 10-12 among 301 likely primary voters. Based on those General Election numbers above, my refusal to vote for Donald Trump as the Republican nominee really does not matter….

April 12, 2016

Kasich Leads Clinton By Double Digit in CT

A lot of polls out for the state of New York, but there was one for the state of Connecticut from Emerson College that shows what a terrible mistake Republican primary voters are making.

PRESIDENT – CONNECTICUT (Emerson)
Kasich 49%
Clinton 38%

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

Clinton 52%
Cruz 31%

The numbers speak for themselves. This poll was done April 10-11 among 1043 likely voters.

April 10, 2016

Trump Dominates GOP in PA and NY

Back into the grind, Fox News released a new poll for the state of Pennsylvania this morning showing Republican primary voters in this state wanting to make Donald Trump the face of the Republican Party.

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA – GOP PRIMARY (Fox News)
Trump 48%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 20%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News)
Trump 44%
Clinton 44%

They also released a new poll in New York showing an even bigger primary lead for Trump.

PRESIDENT – NEW YORK – GOP PRIMARY (Fox News)
Trump 54%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 15%

PRESIDENT – NEW YORK (Fox News)
Clinton 53%
Trump 37%

These polls were done April 4-7 among likely voters in each state.

April 7, 2016

Kasich Moves Into 2nd Place in MD, Pugh Leads Dixon By 6% in Baltimore

My home state of Maryland votes in less than three weeks and it looks like John Kasich has moved into a solid second place according to The Washington Post and the University of Maryland.

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND – GOP PRIMARY (WaPo/UMD)
Trump 41%
Kasich 31%
Cruz 22%

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND (WaPo/UMD)
Clinton 63%
Trump 28%

This poll was done March 30-April 3 among likely voters. I will say, it is clear the establishment in Maryland is full square behind Kasich if a anecdotal survey of my politically-active Republican friends is a representative sample. Sticking close to home, The Baltimore Sun and The University of Baltimore are showing Democratic voters may be end up not giving former mayor Sheila Dixon, who was forced to leave office previously after being convicted of a misdemeanor, another term as Mayor.

MAYOR – BALTIMORE – DEM PRIMARY (BaSu/UofB)
Catherine Pugh 31%
Sheila Dixon 25%
Elizabeth Embry 9%
David Warnock 7%
Nick Mosby 5%
Carl Stokes 5%
Everyone Else <1%

This poll was done April 1-4 among 400 likely primary voters.