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June 3, 2020

Polls From AZ, FL, MI, NC, OH, PA, TX and WI

Catching up on some polls from earlier in the week and today starting with a batch of polls from CNBC and Change Research that show a complex view on how strong Joe Biden really is.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (CNBC/Change Research)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Joe Biden (D) 44%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (CNBC/Change Research)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (CNBC/Change Research)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (CNBC/Change Research)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (CNBC/Change Research)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (CNBC/Change Research)
Joe Biden (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

These polls were all done May 29-31 among likely voters in each state. But then we get a new poll today from Quinnipiac University for the state of Texas that has Biden within a single percentage point of Trump in the state of Texas.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Joe Biden (D) 43%

This poll was done May 28-June 1 among 1166 registered voters. Also out today are new polls from FOx News from Arizona, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Fox News)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

US SENATE – ARIZONA (Fox News)
Mark Kelly (D) 50%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 37%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Fox News)
Joe Biden (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Fox News)
Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

This poll was done May 30-June 2 among registered voters in each state. And finally another new poll for North Carolina from the Civitas Institute has Trump’s lead at 3% in the state he is about to take the RNC from.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Joe Biden (D) 44%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas)
Thom Tillis (R-inc) 38%
Cal Cunningham (D) 36%

GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas)
Roy Cooper (D-inc) 49%
Dan Forest (R) 37%

This poll was done May 26-28 among 500 likely voters.

May 29, 2020

Biden Leads Trump by 1% in FL, Trump Leads Biden By 4% in MO

Late this week we received polls from both Florida and Missouri that continue to show how much trouble Donald Trump is starting to have in states that he absolutely needs to win later this year. A poll from StPetePolls.org shows Joe Biden ahead of Trump by a single percentage point while in Missouri, a new poll from We Ask America has Trump’s lead at only 4%.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (StPetePolls)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (WAA)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Joe Biden (D) 44%

GOVERNOR – MISSOURI (WAA)
Mike Parson (R-inc) 47%
Nicole Galloway (D) 39%

Both polls were done May 26-27 among 4763 registered voters in Florida and 500 registered voters in Missouri.

May 26, 2020

Biden Within 3% of Trump in UT, Leads Trump By 24% in MD

Donald Trump’s lead in Utah is down to a mere 3% in a new poll from UtahPolicy.com and KUTV done by Y2 Analytics.

PRESIDENT – UTAH (UtahPolicy.com)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Joe Biden (D) 41%

This poll was done May 9-15 among 1099 likely voters. Meanwhile in my home state of Maryland, no surprise that Joe Biden should win easily in November as shown in this latest poll from Gonzales Research.

PRESIDENT- MARYLAND (Gonzales)
Joe Biden (D) 59%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 35%

This poll was done May 19-23 among 810 likely voters.

May 25, 2020

Biden Leads Trump by 5% in MN

ON this Memorial Day, we have a new poll from the Minnesota Star Tribune and Mason-Dixon Polling that has Joe Biden ahead by 5% in the state of Minnesota.

PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Star Tribune)
Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

This poll was done May 18-20 among 800 registered voters.

May 19, 2020

Biden Leads Trump by 7% in AZ

We have a new poll from OH Predictive InsightsOH Predictive InsightsOH Predictive Insights that shows Joe Biden now with a 7% lead over Donald Trump in a state that Trump won by 3.5% four years ago.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (OHPI)
Joe Bien (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

This poll was done May 9-11 among 600 likely voters.

May 16, 2020

Trump Leads Biden By 3% in NC, Biden Leads Trump By 6% in FL

In the state of North Carolina, East Carolina University has a new poll showing Donald Trump and Thom Tillis with small leads in their respective races.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (ECU)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Joe Biden (D) 43%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (ECU)
Thom Tillis (R-inc) 41%
Cal Cunningham (D) 40%

GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (ECU)
Roy Cooper (D-inc) 51%
Dan Forest (R) 36%

This poll was done May 7-9 among 1111 registered voters. In FLorida, a new poll from Florida Atlantic University shows Biden ahead of Trump.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (FAU)
Joe Biden (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

This poll was done May 8-12 among 928 likely voters.

May 12, 2020

Trump Leads Biden By 3% in OH, 6% in TX, Biden Dominates in CA

Yesterday we got three new state polls from Emerson College showing Donald Trump with leads in OH and TX and Joe Bidn is dominating in CA.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Joe Biden (D) 43%

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Joe Biden (D) 41%

PRESIDENT – CALIFORNIA (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 59%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 29%

These polls were one May 8-10 among 725 registered voters in OH, 799 registered voters in TX and 800 registered voters in CA.

May 8, 2020

Biden Dominates Trump in Northeast, Kennedy Leads Markey in Two Polls

No surprise here, we have polls in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York from Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University and two polls for Massachusetts from UMass-Lowell and Emerson College that shows Joe Biden will be expectedly very strong in the Northeast.

PRESIDENT – CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac)
Joe Biden (D) 56%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 33%

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
Joe Biden (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 35%

PRESIDENT – NEW YORK (Quinnipiac)
Joe Biden (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 32%

PRESIDENT – MASSACHUSETTS (UMass-Lowell)
Joe Biden (D) 58%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 30%

PRESIDENT – MASSACHUSETTS (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 60%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 30%

The Q-polls were all done April 30-=May 4 with 945 registered voters in CT, 945 registered voters in NJ and 915 registered voters in NY. The UMass-Lowell poll was done April 27-May 1 among 1000 likely voters. The Emerson College poll was done May 5-6 among 740 registered voters. What may be more interesting in the two polls in Massachusetts is we are on the verge of seeing a sitting Democratic incumbent US Senator go down in the primary.

US SENATE – MASSACHUSETTS – DEM PRIMARY (UMass-Lowell)
Joe Kennedy III 44%
Ed Markey (inc) 42%

US SENATE – MASSACHUSETTS – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Kennedy III 58%
Ed Markey (inc) 42%

Ed Markey spends 40 years in the US House to finally become a US Senator to replace John Kerry (he does also get elected to a full term in 2014), but is on the verge of being pushed out by his own party after only one full term. The UMass-Lowell poll has 531 likely Democratic primary voters and the Emerson College poll had 620 likely Democratic primary voters.

May 4, 2020

Biden Within 2% of Trump in IA

Public Policy Polling released a new poll for the state of Iowa today that shows Donald Trump, while ahead, struggling to maintain the same margin he had four years ago when he nearly won Iowa by double digits.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (PPP)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

US SENATE – IOWA (PPP)
Joni Ernst (R-inc) 43%
Theresa Greenfield (D) 42%

The above also represents yet another US Senate seat in danger. This poll was done April 30-May 1 among 1222 registered voters.

May 2, 2020

Biden Leads Trump By 6% in PA, Biden/Trump Tied in TX

Yesterday we received a new poll from Harper Polling for the state of Pennsylvania that has Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by 6%.

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Harper)
Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

This poll was done April 21-26 among 644 likely voters. Even more trouble for Trump in the state of Texas where we have yet another poll showing this state that should be a GOP guarantee in a Presidential election will not be an easy win this year. This latest poll comes from The Dallas Morning News.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Dallas Morning News)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%
Joe Biden (D) 43%

This poll was done April 18-27 among 1183 registered voters.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS