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October 30, 2014

Hagan Leads By 3% in NC, Sullivan Leads By 4% in AK, Crist Leads By 3% in FL, Gardner Leads By 7% in CO

Elon University has their view of eh race in North Carolina and it shows Kay Hagan with a 4% lead over Thom Tillis.

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Elon)
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 45%
Thom Tillis (R) 41%

For some reason, they did not explicitly include Sean Haugh as a choice in this poll. This poll was done October 21-25 among 687 likely voters. Meanwhile, Moore Information has been paid money by Dan Sullivan to provide a poll showing Sullivan ahead by 4% in Alaska.

US SENATE – ALASKA (Moore)
Dan Sullivan (R) 42%
Mark Begich (D-inc) 38%

This poll was done October 26-28 among 500 likely voters. In Florida, Quinnipiac University is showing Charlie Crist with a 3% lead over Rick Scott.

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
Charlie Crist (D) 43%
Rick Scott (R-inc) 40%
Adrian Wyllie (L) 8%

This poll was done October 22-27 among 817 likely voters. There is better news from Quinnipiac University in Colorado where Cory Gardner holds a 7% lead.

US SENATE – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Cory Gardner (R) 46%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 39%
Steve Shogan (I) 7%

This poll was done October 22-27 among 844 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 8:01 am
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October 29, 2014

Walker Leads By 7% in WI, Perdue/Nunn Tied in GA

The big poll this afternoon has to be the new poll from Marquette Law School that shows Scott Walker surging to a 7% lead in Wisconsin.

GOVERNOR – WISCONSIN (MULS)
Scott Walker (R-inc) 50%
Mary Burke (D) 43%

This poll was done October 23-26 among 1164 likely voters. Rasmussen Reports pours some cold water on the earlier poll from Monmouth University and pegs the US Senate race in Georgia as a dead-heat tie.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (Rasmussen)
David Perdue (R) 46%
Michelle Nunn (D) 46%

This poll was done October 25-27 among 977 likely voters.

Perdue Leads By 8% in GA, Rounds Leads by 14% in SD, Udall Leads By 1% in CO

Monmouth University drops somewhat of stink bomb into the room with their latest view of the race in Georgia claiming David Perdue is now ahead by 8% over Michelle Nunn.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (Monmouth)
David Perdue (R) 49%
Michelle Nunn (D) 41%
Amanda Swafford (L) 3%

GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Monmouth)
Nathan Deal (R-inc) 48%
Jason Carter (D) 42%
Andrew Hunt (L) 5%

This poll was done October 26-28 among 436 likely voters. This poll lead to this back and forth between Nate Cohn and the Director of Monmouth Polling, Patrick Murray.

Rasmussen Reports adds to the idea that the race in South Dakota is over with another double-digit lead for Mike Rounds.

US SENATE – SOUTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen)
Mike Rounds (R) 45%
Rick Weiland (D) 31%
Larry Pressler (I) 21%

This poll was done, well I don’t know when it was done because as of the time of this post, the article says it was done June 4-5. Some polling firm called Strategies 360 has a poll out for the race in Colorado claiming Mark Udall holds a single percentage-point lead.

US SENATE – COLORADO (S360)
Mark Udall (D-inc) 45%
Cory Gardner (R) 44%

This poll was done October 20-25 among 760 likely voters.

Ernst Leads Braley By 4% in IA, Malloy/Foley Tied in CT

This morning, Quinnipiac University has given us polls for Iowa and Connecticut this morning already.

US SENATE – IOWA (Quinnipiac)
Joni Ernst (R) 49%
Bruce Braley (D) 45%

GOVERNOR – CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac)
Dannel Malloy (D-inc) 43%
Tom Foley (R) 43%
Joe Visconti (I) 7%

Both polls were done October 22-27 among likely voters. Another poll on the gubernatorial race in Colorado should be coming out shortly.

October 28, 2014

Orman Leads Roberts By 2% in KS

It has been a weird days of polls today with results coming in that seem to be all over the map. The big one tonight is from Kansas where we have a new poll from Survey USA that shows Pat Roberts still trailing Greg Orman.

US SENATE – KANSAS (Survey USA)
Greg Orman (I) 44%
Pat Roberts (R-inc) 42%
Randall Batson (L) 4%

GOVERNOR – KANSAS (Survey USA)
Paul Davis (D) 46%
Sam Brownback (R-inc) 43%
Other 5%

This poll was done October 22-26 among 623 likely voters.

Perdue Leads By 3% in GA, Braley leads By 1% in IA, Rounds Leads By 14% in SD

David Perdue has surged in the state of Georgia and now leads in the latest poll from Survey USA.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
David Perdue (R) 48%
Michelle Nunn (D) 45%
Amanda Swafford (L) 3%

This poll was done October 24-27 among 611 likely voters. Meanwhile, Loras College is now claiming in their latest poll that Bruce Braley has a single percentage-point lead over Joni Ernst in the state of Iowa.

US SENATE – IOWA (Loras)
Bruce Braley (D) 45%
Joni Ernst (R) 44%

This poll was done October 21-24 among 1121 likely voters. Finally in South Dakota, we have more proof that the US Senate race was not much of one despite claims otherwise with the latest poll from Monmouth University.

US SENATE – SOUTH DAKOTA (Monmouth)
Mike Rounds (R) 45%
Rick Weiland (D) 31%
Larry Pressler (I) 19%

This poll was done October 24-27 among 429 likely voters.

Can GOP Win House Seat in MD-3?, Coakley’s Own Poll Has Her Trailing By 2% in MA

A rather humorous email from the DCCC this morning:

Don’t worry – this email isn’t asking for money.

We need something MUCH more important: your voice.

According to our records, you live in zip code 21045. That means you’re right in the middle of one of our most competitive Congressional races!

(if you’ve turned on your TV recently, you probably didn’t need us to tell you that)

This race is going to be close. Honestly, it could go either way. But we know we can pull off a big Democratic victory if we can get enough Obama voters out to the polls on November 4th.

They actually did the highlighting. If Democrats are telling me the 3rd Congressional District in Maryland is one of the “most competitive Congressional races”, then Democrats are in much more trouble than I even thought. In 2012, Democrats won this seat with almost 67% of the vote! Now even this seat is competitive? Wow!

It has to be bad when you are the Democratic candidate for Governor in Massachusetts and the best you can do is release an internal poll showing yourself down by 2%.

GOVERNOR – MASSACHUSETTS (Kiley)
Charlie Baker (R) 44%
Martha Coakley (D) 42%

No date sin the article, but the poll was done by Coakley’s campaign among 1200 likely voters. Meanwhile, Ivan Moore in Alaska is not only claiming Mark Begich has an 8% lead in Alaska, but Republican congressman Don Young is also trailing as well according to him.

US SENATE – ALASKA (Ivan Moore)
Mark Begich (D-inc) 50%
Dan Sullivan (R) 42%

US HOUSE – ALASKA – CD AL (Ivan Moore)
Forrest Dunbar (D) 46%
Don Young (R-inc) 40%

This poll was done October 24-26 among 330 likely voters. Ivan Moore is so confident in his poll that he ends his post on the poll with “You heard it here first.”

October 27, 2014

Perdue/Nunn Tied in GA, LePage/Michaud Tied in ME

From today’s “the world is ending” email from the DCCC:

Subject: It’s over. Zero chance. Goodbye.

The math is daunting: if we can’t fight off all these Republican attacks, our chances of winning will drop to ZERO. That might sound grim, but it’s the truth.

Well, I’m inspired. My guess is this won’t be the last poll we see from Public Policy Polling for Georgia, but I am somewhat surprised they could only manage a tie in this race considering this poll was done for a leftist group.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (PPP/LCV)
David Perdue (R-inc) 47%
Michelle Nunn (D) 47%
Amanda Swafford (L) 3%

GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (PPP/LCV)
Nathan Deal (R-inc) 48%
Jason Carter (D) 45%
Andrew hunt (L) 4%

This poll was done October 23-24 among 771 likely voters. Republican Governors Association paid for this poll from Magellan Strategies for the state of Maine.

GOVERNOR – MAINE (Magellan)
Paul LePage (R-inc) 42%
Mike Michaud (D) 42%
Eliot Cutler (I) 13%

This poll was done October 23-24 among 869 likely voters.

Monday Afternoon Polls (MD, CO, LA, NC)

Living in Maryland, you just assume the Democratic candidate is going to win the statewide races, so even when a race is supposedly close, I don’t get my hopes up too much. Republicans had one break in 2002 with Bob Ehrlich, who was a good candidate, but also had the benefit of the Democrats picking the worst candidate in the history of electoral politics – Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And he still only won 52%-47%. So I am still a little skeptical of this latest poll from Gonzales Research (that was paid for by the Maryland Republican Party).

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (Gonzales)
Anthony Brown (D) 46%
Larry Hogan (R) 44%

This poll was done October 20-24 among 822 likely voters. The latest CBS News/New York Times/YouGov pegs the race at a 15%-38% lead for Brown. If Hogan were to pull this off, I would actually consider a bigger upset than Ehrlich winning due to the quality of candidate. Not that Anthony Brown is the brightest bulb, but he at least comes across as a much more credible candidate than Townsend ever was. In Colorado, Rasmussen Reports adds the list of pollsters showing Republicans on the verge of winning this seat.

US SENATE – COLORADO (Rasmussen)
Cory Gardner (R) 51%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 45%

This poll was done October 21-23 among 966 likely voters. USA Today and Suffolk have a look at the runoff race in Louisiana.

US SENATE – LOUISIANA (USAT/Suffolk)
Bill Cassidy (R) 48%
Mary Landrieu (D-inc) 41%

The primary poll has both candidates stuck in the 30s, so this is definitely going to a runoff. This poll was done October 23-26 among 500 likely voters. We also have a couple of polls in North Carolina showing that race remaining close. The polls come from Survey USA/High Point University and Monmouth University.

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Survey USA/HPU)
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 44%
Thom Tillis (R) 44%
San Haugh (L) 5%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Monmouth)
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 48%
Thom Tillis (R) 46%
Sean Haugh (L) 1%

The Survey USA poll was done October 21-25 among 802 likely voters. The Monmouth poll was done October 23-26 among 432 likely voters.

Rounds Leads By 9% in SD

We have a new poll this morning from the Argus Leader and KELO, done by Mason-Dixon Polling, that shows a 9% lead for Mike Rounds over Rick Weiland.

US SENATE – SOUTH DAKOTA (Mason-Dixon)
Mike Rounds (R) 42%
Rick Weiland (D-inc) 33%
Larry Pressler (I) 13%

This poll was done October 20-23 among 800 likely voters.

US SENATE 2014

Party Prediction Gain/Loss
GOP 51 6
DEM 46 -7
IND 3 1

US HOUSE 2014

Party Prediction Gain/Loss
GOP 238 4
DEM 197 -4