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April 1, 2020

Biden Leads Trump By 3% in WI

Today we received a new poll from Marquette Law School that shows Joe Biden with a small lead over Donald Trump in a state Trump won four years ago, the state of Wisconsin.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%

This poll was done March 24-29 among 813 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 2:06 pm
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March 25, 2020

COVID-19 Open Thread

I’ve had a few people ask for a new thread as I am falling down on the job these days. So here you go…blame COVID-19.

You’d think pollsters would be having the highest response rate ever these days with so many people stuck in their houses desperate to talk to anybody who is willing to talk to them….

March 17, 2020

Biden Leads Trump in AZ and OH

We received two more polls yesterday from Monmouth University and NBC News and Marist College for the state of Arizona that shows how much trouble Donald Trump is in in a state he won four years ago. Adding to this is Mark Kelly is now leading Republican incumbent Martha McSally in a slew of polls of late that would give Democrats a huge pickup in the US Senate.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Monmouth)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (NBC/Marist)
Joe Biden (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

US SENATE – ARIZONA (NBC/Marist)
Mark Kelly (D) 50%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 44%

The Monmouth poll was done March 11-14 and the NBC News/Marist College poll was done March 10-15, both among registered voters. Meanwhile NBC News and MaristNBC News and MaristNBC News and Marist also released a new poll for the state of Ohio that has Trump trailing in another state he won in 2016.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (NBC/Marist)
Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

This poll was done March 10-13 among registered voters.

March 13, 2020

Biden Leads Trump in AZ in Two Polls

DOnald Trump won the state of Arizona in 2016, but two new polls show him trailing Joe Biden this time around. The polls come from OH Predictive Insights and Arizona State University/Univision.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (OHPI)
Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 38%

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (ASU/Univision)
Joe Biden (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

The OHPI poll was done March 3-4 among likely voters. The ASU/Univision poll was done March 6-11 among 1036 likely voters.

March 10, 2020

Trump Leads Biden and Sanders in FL

We have a new poll from Florida Atlantic University that has Donald Trump with a small lead over both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in the state of Florida.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (FAU)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Joe Biden (D) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
Bernie Sanders (D) 47%

This poll was done March 5-7 among 1216 registered voters.

March 9, 2020

Both Biden and Sanders Lead Trump in MI, PA and WI

We have a set of polls from Yahoo news and YouGov today that shows Joe Biden doing slightly better against Donald Trump than Bernie Sanders in the all-important states of Michigan and Pennsylvania while Sanders does better in Wisconsin.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Yahoo News/YouGov)
Joe Biden (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

Bernie Sanders (D) 43%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Yahoo News/YouGov)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Bernie Sanders (D) 43%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Yahoo News/YouGov)
Joe Biden (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Bernie Sanders (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

This poll was done March 6-8 among registered voters in each state. Monmouth University also put out a poll for Michigan that gives the two Democrats an even larger lead over Trump.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Monmouth)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

Bernie Sanders (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

This poll was done March 5-8 among 977 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 5:26 pm
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March 6, 2020

Biden Leads Trump in AZ and ME, Dems Lead US Senate Races in AZ and ME

Now that we are basically down to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic (and realistically if people are honest, Biden will be the nominee), we can start focusing on the General Election polling and yesterday Public Policy polling released new numbers for the states of Arizona and Maine that shows Biden leading in both states.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 46%

PRESIDENT – MAINE (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Bernie Sanders (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Meanwhile in the US Senate races, Arizona and Maine will be two states the Republicans are in serious danger of losing based on the results of these same polls.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (PPP)
Mark Kelly (D) 47%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

US SENATE – MAINE (PPP)
Sara Gideon (D) 47%
Susan Collins (R-inc) 43%

Both polls were done March 2-3 among 872 registered voters in ME and 666 registered voters in AZ.

Barring some dramatic change in the trajectory of the Democratic race, I will likely not be even looking at primary polls at this point.

March 3, 2020

Super Tuesday Election Night Thread

I’ll put this up a little early today so people can start making predictions (also I won’t be able to post until much later tonight). I could have posted a bunch of polls for Super Tuesday but with Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar both dropping out since Saturday, most of those polls are basically useless at this point.

The only real question in my mind coming out of tonight will be whether Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders has a delegate lead. If it is the former I think the Democratic race will effectively be over and the drumbeat for Sanders to drop out (which of course he won’t) will be the only discussion left in the Democratic primary race.

If Sanders has the lead, then the drumbeat for Warren and Bloomberg to drop out will be just as defeaning so that Biden will eventually get a delegate lead before the convention.

February 29, 2020

South Carolina Primary Election Night Thread

Will Biden win by more than 15%?

Will Tom Steyer edge out Bernie Sanders for 2nd place?

Can Elizabeth Warren and/or Pete Buttigieg reach the 15% viability threshhold?

Polls close at 7pm

February 27, 2020

Biden Leads Democratic Race in SC By Either 4% or 28%

Change Research and The Post and Courier have come out with a poll for the race in South Carolina that goes against the idea that joe Biden is running away with things on Saturday.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Change)
Joe Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 24%
Tom Steyer 16%
Elizabeth Warren 12%
Pete Buttigieg 11%
Nobody Else Mentioned

This poll was done February 23-27 among 543 likely primary voters. Meanwhile, some polling outfit called Starboard Communications (linked in the article above) throws their lot in with the “Biden in a landslide” narrative by showing Biden hitting 40%.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Starboard)
Joe Biden 40%
Tom Steyer 12%
Bernie Sanders 11%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Pete Buttigieg 9%
Amy Klobuchar 6%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%

This poll was done February 26th among 1102 likely primary voters.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS