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February 4, 2012

Nevada Caucuses Results Thread

Apparently, according to the Nevada Republican party Twitter feed, they will start releasing results at 8pm tonight followed up with the full results by 1am.

Here is the official website for the Nevada Republican party website where the results will be tallied.

Also, the Associated Press has a results page up.

Adding to the intrigue, Newt Gingrich apparentley will be holding a “press conference” between 11pm-Midnight tonight. I guess this replaces the normal “sore loser” speeches he has given after some of the previous primary election nights….

February 3, 2012

Obama Leads GOP in NH, Nixon Cruising in MO

They say it is always good to have bad news released on a Friday night and we have that with two new polls. A poll from WMUR and the University of New Hampshire shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by double digits in the state of New Hampshire.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (WMUR)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 40%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Ron Paul (R) 42%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 60%
Newt Gingrich (R) 35%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 56%
Rick Santorum (R) 35%

This poll was done January 25-February 2 among 527 randomly selected adults. We haven’t had a poll from New Hampshire for the General Election since November when Romney was leading Obama in poll after poll, so hard to say whether this is an outlier or a trend until we something else. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Jay Nixon appears to be on his way to another term in Missouri in a new poll from Public Policy Polling.

GOVERNOR – MISSOURI (PPP)
Jay Nixon (D-inc) 47%
Bill Randles (R) 29%

Jay Nixon (D-inc) 48%
Tom Schwiech (R) 30%

Jay Nixon (D-inc) 47%
Dave Spence (R) 27%

This poll was done January 27-29 among 582 registered voters.

Romney Stronger Than Gingrich Against Obama in GA

Survey USA is out with a new General Election poll for the state of Georgia showing that even in Newt Gingrich’s native state of Georgia, Mitt Romney is still more electable against Barack Obama.

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
Mitt Romney (R) 51%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%

Newt Gingrich (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA – GOP PRIMARY (Survey USA)
Newt Gingrich 45%
Mitt Romney 32%
Rick Santorum 9%
Ron Paul 8%

This poll was done February 1-2 among 1144 registered voters and 459 likely primary voters. Public Policy Polling gives us some more numbers from their poll in Ohio showing the sitting Democratic US Senator Sherrod Brown ahead of Republican Josh Mandel by double digits.

US SENATE – OHIO (PPP)
Sherrod Brown (D-inc) 47%
Josh Mandel (R) 36%

This poll was done January 28-29 among 820 registered voters.

Romney Up By 25% in NV

Last night, Public Policy Polling released their poll for the Nevada Caucuses and it shows Romney has the potential of hitting 50%.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA – GOP CAUCUS (PPP)
Mitt Romney 50%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Santorum 8%

This poll was done February 1-2 among 937 likely caucus goers.

That’s all I have for this Friday morning….

February 2, 2012

Romney/Obama Tied in MO, Gingrich Trails By 7%

I am not saying the Donald Trump endorsement of Mitt Romney is any great prize, in fact it might be more of a negative than anything, but what was so humorous to me was to read Newt Gingrich worshippers this morning all giddy about the reports that Trump was supposed to be endorsing Gingrich and how this was such a game changer and how great Trump was and on and on and on. Then spinning on a dime, when the news came out that Trump was actually endorsing Romney, those same people decided the Trump endorsement is an embarrassment to Romney and decrying the mere thought that anyone should be excited to stand next to Trump and on and on and on. These Newt Gingrich worshippers hate Romney so much that they don’t even know what they believe for anymore (even in the same day)…other than they hate Mitt Romney….

Public Policy Polling is out with a new poll this afternoon for Missouri that once again shows the stark difference between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich when it comes to electability.

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Newt Gingrich (R) 42%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Rick Santorum (R) 44%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%
Ron Paul (R) 43%

It still perplexes me why self-proclaimed “conservatives” are so much more willing to back Newt Gingrich than Rick Santorum when it is becoming clear that Santorum is even more electable than Gingrich as well as being more “conservative”. This poll was done January 27-29 among 582 registered voters.

Romney Leads By Double Digits in AZ and MI

Rasmussen Reports released two new primary polls for states holding primaries on February 28th showing Mitt Romney with healthy leads in both. We will start with the poll from the state of Arizona.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney 48%
Newt Gingrich 24%
Rick Santorum 13%
Ron Paul 6%

This poll was done February 1st among 750 likely primary voters. Meanwhile in Michigan, Romney also holds a double-digit lead.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney 38%
Newt Gingrich 23%
Rick Santorum 17%
Ron Paul 14%

This poll was done also done February 1st among 750 likely primary voters.

Romney Up Big in NV

Public Policy Polling’s Twitter feed says the following about their new poll in Nevada that should be released late tonight.

After first night in field, @ppppolls has Mitt up close to 20 points over Newt in NV. Early numbers indicate Paul can’t get 2nd.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Review-Journal and the Survey Center at UNLV also seem to be showing a 20% lead for Mitt Romney over Newt Gingrich.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA – GOP CAUCUS (UNLV)
Mitt Romney 45%
Newt Gingrich 24%
Rick Santorum 11%
Ron Paul 9%

This poll was done January 27-31 among 426 Republican caucus goers. I was hoping for a bigger blowout, but the fact that Newt Gingrich is still dominating second place and keeping Rick Santorum down, in my mind, is good news for Mitt Romney. I said early on that Santorum made a huge mistake not doing more to take down Gingrich and allowing Gingrich to somehow convince self-proclaimed “social conservatives” that he was one of them. Speaking of men who cheat on their wives, apparently Donald Trump is going to endorse Newt Gingrich. That should get those “social conservatives” even more excited….

February 1, 2012

Obama Leads GOP in OH, McCaskill Vulnerable in MO

Somehow, Public Policy Polling managed to do a poll of the US Senate race in Missouri that showed exact 43%-43% ties for three different match ups.

US SENATE – MISSOURI (PPP)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 43%
Todd Akin (R) 43%

Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 43%
John Brunner (R) 43%

Clare McCaskill (D-inc) 43%
Sarah Steelman (R) 43%

This poll was done January 27-29 among 582 likely primary voters. In Ohio, PPP is claiming Barack Obama is opening up a huge lead over his Republican challengers.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Ron Paul (R) 38%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Rick Santorum (R) 42%

Barack Obama (D-inc)
Newt Gingrich (R) 39%

This poll was done January 28-29 aong 820 registered voters.

Santorum Leads in MO, Gingrich Leads in OH, Dems Lead in HI

So to play some catch up from yesterday, we had some polls from Ohio and Missouri from Public Policy Polling. Because Newt Gingrich’s campaign was too lazy to do the work to get Gingrich’s name on the ballot in Missouri, Rick Santorum currently leads the Republican presidential primary.

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Rick Santorum 45%
Mitt Romney 34%
Ron Paul 13%

In the state of Ohio, the race is currently between Gingrich and Romney.

PRESIDENT – OHIO – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Newt Gingrich 26%
Mitt Romney 25%
Rick Santorum 22%
Ron Paul 11%

Some other primary races in Missouri for those following those races.

GOVERNOR – MISSOURI – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Tom Schweich 28%
Bill Randles 10%
Dave Spence 7%

US SENATE – MISSOURI – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Sarah Steelman 32%
Todd Akin 23%
John Brunner 18%

The Ohio poll was done January 28-29 among 626 primary voters. The Missouri poll was done January 27-29 among 574 primary voters. We have a new poll out of Hawaii from Honolulu Civil Beat showing either Democratic candidate leading Republican Linda Lingle in the race for US Senate.

US SENATE – HAWAII (Civil Beat)
Ed Case (D) 46%
Linda Lingle (R) 33%

Mazie Hirono (D) 46%
Linda Lingle (R) 39%

This poll was done January 18-19 among 1,358 likely voters

January 31, 2012

Polls in Florida Start To Close

I thought I was going to have more today, but will have to catch up tomorrow…meanwhile, the polls are starting to close in Florida (with the remaining polls closing at 8pm)….