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July 29, 2015

Duckworth Leads Kirk By 6% in IL

Republicans will likely have a hard time holding the US Senate seat in Illinois if Tammy Duckworth becomes the Democratic nominee according to Public Policy Polling.

US SENATE – ILLINOIS (PPP)
Tammy Duckworth (D) 42%
Mark Kirk (R-inc) 36%

Mark Kirk (R-inc) 38%
Andrea Zopp (D) 29%

On the Presidential level, this state should stay in the Democrats’ hands.

PRESIDENT – ILLINOIS (PPP)
Clinton (D) 48%
Bush (R) 39%

Sanders (D) 42%
Bush (R) 37%

Clinton (D) 49%
Carson (R) 37%

Clinton (D) 49%
Christie (R) 35%

Clinton (D) 51%
Cruz (R) 37%

Clinton (D) 49%
Fiorina (R) 34%

Clinton (D) 51%
HUckabee (R) 35%

Clinton (D) 47%
Paul (R) 37%

Clinton (D) 49%
Rubio (R) 37%

Sanders (D) 40%
Rubio (R) 34%

Clinton (D) 51%
Trump (R) 33%

Sanders (D) 48%
Trump (R) 32%

Clinton (D) 50%
Walker (R) 39%

Sanders (D) 40%
Walker (R) 36%

This poll as done July 20-21 among 931 registered voters.

Trump Leads GOP Field in Florida

The Republican Party is absolutely screwed. St. Pete Polls is showing Donald Trump now leading the Republican Party in the home state of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (St. Pete Polls)
Donald Trump 26%
Jeb Bush 20%
Scott Walker 12%
Marco Rubio 10%
Ben Carson 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
John Kasich 4%
Rand Paul 3%

This poll was done July 18-28 among 1902 likely voters. It does seem odd is that they did not include all the candidates, incuding Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and Chris Christie.

Posted by Dave at 4:28 pm
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Trump Leads GOP Field By Double Digits

Morning Consult is out with their latest poll and it now has Donald Trump leading the Republican field by double digits.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (MC)
Donald Trump 24%
Jeb Bush 13%
Scott Walker 9%
Ben Carson 8%
Marco Rubio 5%
Chris Christie 5%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
John Kasich 4%
Rand Paul 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Perry 1%

This poll was done July 23-27 among 1979 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 2:51 pm
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July 28, 2015

Trump Doubles Up On Bush in NH

More evidence that a good chunk of the Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are delusional comes from Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Donald Trump 24%
Jeb Bush 12%
Scott Walker 7%
John Kasich 7%
Marco Rubio 6%
Ben Carson 5%
Rand Paul 5%
Chris Christie 4%
Ted Cruz 3%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%
George Pataki 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Perry 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Lindsey Graham <1%
Jim Gilmore <1%

This poll was done July 23-26 among 467 registered voters.

July 26, 2015

Trump Leads GOP Nationally and in NH, Second Place in IA

The disaster for the Republican Party that is Donald Trump continues unabated today as we have a set of polls showing how utterly blind to reality a large chunk of Republican voters are both nationally and in the two early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Donald Trump is now on top of the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (CNN/ORC)
Donald Trump 18%
Jeb Bush 15%
Scott Walker 10%
Ted Cruz 7%
Rand Paul 6%
Marco Rubio 6%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Chris Christie 4%
John Kasich 4%
Rick Perry 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (CNN/ORC)
Hillary Clinton 56%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Joe Biden 15%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Martin O’Malley 0%

This poll was done July 22-25 among registered voters. But wait, it gets worse. NBC News and Marist College released polls for Iowa and New Hampshire this morning that shows Trump surging in both of these early states.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (Marist)
Scott Walker 19%
Donald Trump 17%
Jeb Bush 12%
Ben Carson 8%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Marco Rubio 4%
Rick Perry 3%
Chris Christie 2%
John Kasich 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Jim Gilmore <1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Marist)
Donald Trump 21%
Jeb Bush 14%
Scott Walker 12%
John Kasich 7%
Chris Christie 6%
Ben Carson 6%
Ted Cruz 5%
Marco Rubio 5%
Rand Paul 4%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Carly Fiorina 2%
George Pataki 2%
Rick Perry <1%
Bobby Jindal <1%
Lindsey Graham <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Jim Gilmore <1%

Just absolutely mind boggling that there are this many Republican voters who really want Donald Trump to be the face of the party. On the Democratic side, Hillary CLcinton still leads in both states by double digits.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Marist)
Hillary Clinton 55%
Bernie Sanders 26%
Martin O’Malley 4%
Jim Webb 2%
Lincoln Chafee 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Marist)
Hillary Clinton 47%
Bernie Sanders 34%
Martin O’Malley 5%
Lincoln Chafee 2%
Jim Webb 1%

Both sets of polls were done July 14-21 among registered voters in each party.

What is really depressing is that even if Republican voters eventually manage to avoid the embarrassment of Donald Trump being the face of the party, the damage that has already been done to the brand may be something that won’t be recoverable in 2016.

July 24, 2015

Vitter Trails Edwards in LA

Since we hit 1000 comments, I guess I should get a new thread up. Could David Vitter actually lose the gubernatorial seat for Republicans in Louisiana? A new poll just made public done by Market Insight indicates he is currently trailing the jungle primary.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – PRIMARY (Market Insight)
John Bel Edwards (D) 30%
David Vitter (R) 24%
Scott Angelle (R) 14%
Jay Dardenne (R) 12%

This articel onyl indicates this poll was done in “late June”. The good news for Vitter is that the combined Republican vite hits 50%, meaning he would at least have that in his favor in the runoff election.

Posted by Dave at 9:13 pm
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July 22, 2015

Another National Poll Shows Trump Leading GOP, Ayotte Leads Hassan by 6% in NH

Public Policy Polling joins the chorus of polling organizations showing Donald Trump with a national lead in the Republican primary.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Donald Trump 19%
Scott Walker 17%
Jeb Bush 12%
Ben Carson 10%
Marco Rubio 10%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Rand Paul 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Chris Christie 3%
John Kasich 3%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Rick Perry 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Lindsey Graham 0%
George Pataki 0%

Meanwhile in the General Election, despite apparently trailing Rubio, Bush and Walker in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, PPP claims Hillary Clinton leads everyone nationally.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Jeb Bush (R) 41%

Jeb Bush (R) 44%
Bernie Sanders (D) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ben Carson (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Chris Christie (R) 38%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Ted Cruz (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Carly Fiorina (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Mike Huckabee (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Rand Paul (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 41%

Marco Rubio 41%
Bernie Sanders 36%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R) 37%

Bernie Sanders (D) 47% .
Donald Trump (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46% .
Scott Walker (R) 41%

Scott Walker (R) 40%
Bernie Sanders (D) 39%

This poll was done July 120-21 among 1087 registered voters. Meanwhile, more from that University of New Hampshire poll, this time for the US Senate race where Kelly Ayotte has opened up a 6% lead over Maggie Hassan after only leading y 2% two months ago.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH)
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc) 47%
Maggie Hassan (D) 41%

This poll was done July 7-20 among 532 likely voters.

Clinton Trails Walker/Bush/Rubio in CO/IA/VA

In a poll that almost seems to good to be true, Quinnipiac University claims the top three legitimate Republicans hold leads over Hillary Clinton in the states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. Unfortunately Donald Trump was not included in the poll so we could all see what an unmitigated disaster he would be as a General Election candidate.

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Rubio 46%
Clinton 38%

Bush 41%
Clinton 36%

Walker 47%
Clinton 38%

Rubio 49%
Biden 35%

Bush 45%
Biden 36%

Walker 48%
Biden 36%

Rubio 46%
Sanders 35%

Bush 43%
Sanders 37%

Walker 44%
Sanders 36%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Quinnipiac)

Rubio 44%
Clinton 36%

Bush 42%
Clinton 36%

Walker 45%
Clinton 37%

Rubio 45%
Biden 37%

Bush 44%
Biden 37%

Walker 47%
Biden 36%

Rubio 43%
Sanders 36%

Bush 42%
Sanders 38%

Walker 44%
Sanders 36%

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac)

Rubio 43%
Clinton 41%

Bush 42%
Clinton 39%

Walker 43%
Clinton 40%

Rubio 45%
Biden 41%

Bush 45%
Biden 40%

Walker 45%
Biden 41%

Rubio 44%
Sanders 37%

Bush 46%
Sanders 36%

Walker 44%
Sanders 36%

These polls were done July 9-20 among 1231 registered voters in Colorado, 1236 registered voters in Iowa and 1209 registered voters in Virginia.

July 21, 2015

Hassan Leads Sununu By 16% in NH Gov Race

WMUR and the University of New Hampshire have released a new poll for the gubernatorial race in New Hampshire and it shows the Democrats’ best bet of holding the seat would be for Maggie Hassan to run for another term.

GOVERNOR – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH/WMUR)
Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 48%
Chris Sununu (R) 32%

Chris Sununu (R) 36%
Colin Van Ostern (D) 26%

Chris Sununu (R) 36%
Chris Pappas (D) 28%

This poll was done July 7-20 among 472 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 8:36 pm
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Trump Leads Another National Primary Poll

Add Morning Consult to the list of pollsters that are now showing a plurality of Republican voters who want Donald Trump to be the face of their party.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Morning Consult)
Donald Trump 22%
Jeb Bush 15%
Scott Walker 12%
Ben Carson 8%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Someone Else 3%

This poll was done July 17-20 among 1978 registered voters. Just shaking my head….

Posted by Dave at 5:13 pm
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