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October 22, 2019

Trump Trails Biden and Warren in FL

We had a new poll from the University of North Florida today that shows Donald Trump trailing both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (UNF)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Kamala Harris (D) 41$

Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%
Pete Buttigieg (D) 42%

Joe Biden (D) 49%
Mike Pence (R) 38%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%
Mike Pence (R) 40%

Interesting that Bernie Sanders was not included at all. This poll was done October 14-20 among 669 registered voters.

When Donald Trump is paired against Joe Biden, 43% of respondents indicated they would vote for Trump and 48% indicated a vote for Biden. When paired against Elizabeth Warren, Trump had 43% while Warren had 46%. Against Kamala Harris, 44% indicated a vote for Trump and 41% a vote for Harris. Lastly, Trump had 43% of the vote when paired against Pete Buttigieg, who had 42%.

October 21, 2019

Top Dems Lead Trump in MN

The Minnesota Star Tribune released a new poll for the state of Minnesota and it shows the top three Democrats plus home-state Senator Amy Klobuchar with healthy leads over Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Star Tribune)
Joe Biden (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Bernie Sanders (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

This poll was done October 14-16 among 800 registered voters.

October 20, 2019

Hogan Leads Van Hollen in MD, Trump Trails Dems in VA

A Republican US Senator from Maryland? A long way away, but The Washington Post is showing in their latest poll that popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan would lead sitting US Senator Chris Van Hollen in a hypothetical 2022 match up for the US Senate.

US SENATE – MARYLAND – 2022 (WaPo)
Larry Hogan (R) 50%
Chris Van Hollen (D_-inc) 42%

This poll was done October 9-14 among registered voters. Meanwhile the the south of Maryland, a poll last week that came from Virginia Commonwealth University shows the top three Democrats ahead of Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (VCU)
Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

This poll was done September 23-October 4 among 800 registered voters.

October 19, 2019

Rispone Tied With Edwards in LA

We Ask America has come out with a new poll for the runoff in Louisiana that shows Republican Eddie Rispone and Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards tied at 47%.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA (WAA)
Eddie Rispone (R) 47%
John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 47%

This poll was done October 14-16 among 600 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:58 pm
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October 17, 2019

Warren/Biden Tied in IA, Biden Leads Trump By 2% in OH

Today we received a new poll from Emerson College that shows Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden tied for the Democratic caucus lead but Bernie Sanders actually being the stronger General Election candidate in the state of Iowa.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Emerson)
Elizabeth Warren 23%
Joe Biden 23%
Pete Buttigieg 16%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Andrew Yang 5%
Steve Bullock 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Kamala Harris 2%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Joe Biden (D) 49%

This poll was done October 13-16 among 888 likely voters and 317 likely Democratic caucus goers. Meanwhile in Ohio, Public Policy Polling released a new poll showing Biden is the stronger candidate for Democrats.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Bernie Sanders (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Kamala Harris (D) 43%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Pete Buttigieg (D) 43%

This poll was done October 10-11 among 776 likely voters.

Dead Heat Tie in KY Gov Race

Mason-Dixon Polling has a new poll out for the gubernatorial race in Kentucky being held next month and it shows the incumbent Republican tied with his Democratic opponent.

GOVERNOR – KENTUCKY (Mason-Dixon)
Matt Bevin (R-inc) 46%
Andy Beshear (D) 46%
John Hicks (L) 1%

This poll was done October 10-13 among 625 likely voters. Public polling is rather limited for this race, so it is hard to even determine if there are any trend lines to watch. Here are the polls I am aware of.

Posted by Dave at 3:38 pm
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October 15, 2019

Biden/Warren Lead Trump By Double Digits in ME

Public Policy Polling gives us a new poll for the state of Maine, where Donald Trump did manage to pick off an electoral vote in 2016.

PRESIDENT – MAINE (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Bernie Sanders (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Pete Buttigieg (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Kamala Harris (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

This poll was done October 11-13 among 939 registered voters.

October 13, 2019

Warren/Biden Tied in IA, Warren leads in NH, Biden Leads in SC

CBS News and YouGov release polls for slew of states this morning. Looking at the three early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Joe Biden is in danger of losing the first two states before he gets to the one state that he still leads in.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (CBS/YouGov)
Elizabeth Warren 22%
Joe Biden 22%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Kamala Harris 5%
Tom Steyer 3%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Cory Booker 2%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (CBS/YouGov)
Elizabeth Warren 32%
Joe Biden 24%
Bernie Sanders 17%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Andrew Yang 5%
Kamala Harris 4%
Tom Steyer 4%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (CBS/YouGov)
Joe Biden 43%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Bernie Sanders 16%
Kamala Harris 7%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

These polls were all done October 3-11 among 729 likely caucus goers in IA, 506 likely primary voters in NH and 915 likely primary voters in SC.

October 12, 2019

LA Governor – Election Night Thread

It has been a while since we had a simple Election Night open thread. Tonight, there is really no chance a Republican is going to win outright, so the real question is whether the voters give Democrat John Bel Edwards another term outright tonight or will he come up short of the 50% threshold and we will have a runoff election later.

The polls close at 9pm EDT. The results from the Associated Press will be found here.

Posted by Dave at 8:00 pm
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October 10, 2019

Trump Trails Biden/Warren/Sanders in NC

Yesterday Public Policy Polling released a new poll for the state of North Carolina that shows Donald Trump trailing both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie sanders (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Kamala Harris (D) 475
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 475
Pete Buttigieg (D) 46%

This poll was done October 4-6 among 963 registered voters.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS