Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Dems Leads Trump in WI, Trump leads Dems in MI, Split in PA

Tuesday, March 26th, 2019

This apparently came out over the weekend from Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus. We have a set of polls for the three states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan that show Trump still in decent positions of holding both Michigan and Pennsylvania where Wisconsin might be getting away from him a little.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (FH/Optimus)
Joe Biden (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

Beto O’Rourke (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (FH/Optimus)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Joe Biden (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 39%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (FH/Optimus)
Joe Biden (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Bernie Sanders (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 40%

These polls were done March 19-21 among 616 likely voters in WI, 632 likely voters in PA and 530 likely voters in MI.

Buttigieg Surges In IA

Sunday, March 24th, 2019

Emerson College has continued their torrid pace of releasing polls with a new one from the state of Iowa today showing a surge for Pete Buttigieg among Democrats.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Kamala Harris (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Cory Booker (D) 48%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%
Howard Schultz (I) 8%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Emerson)
Joe Biden 26%
Bernie Sanders 26%
Pete Buttigieg 11%
Kamala Harris 10%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Cory Booker 6%
Beto O’Rourke 5%

Amy Klobuchar 2%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Andrew Yang 0%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

This poll was done March 21-24 among 707 registered voters. Earlier this morning Fox News released a poll for the national races.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Fox News)
Joe Biden 31%
Bernie Sanders 23%
Kamala Harris 8%
Beto O’Rourke 8%
Cory Booker 4%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand 2%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Bill de Blasio 1%
John Delaney 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Michael Bennet 0%
Steve Bullock 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Terry McAuliffe 0%
Eric Swalwell 0%
John Hickenlooper 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Joe Biden (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Bernie Sanders (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%
Kamala Harris (D) 39%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%

This poll was done March 17-20 among 1002 registered voters.

Biden/Sanders Tied Nationally

Wednesday, March 20th, 2019

Emerson College has put out a new national poll today that shows Bernie Sanders moving into a tie with Joe Biden in the national Democratic primary race.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Kamala Harris (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 49%

Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 4%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 10%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 26%
Joe Biden 26%
Kamala Harris 12%
Beto O’Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Pete Buttigieg 3%
Cory Booker 3%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

This poll was done March 17-18 among 998 registered voters.

Biden Leads Sanders By 8% Nationally

Wednesday, March 20th, 2019

CNN has come out with a new national primary poll on the Democratic side that shows Joe Biden still pacing the field with Bernie Sanders in second.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (CNN)
Joew Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 20%
Kamala Harris 12%
Beto O’Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Cory Booker 3%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
John Delany 0%
Terry McAuliffe 0%
Steve Bullock 0%

This poll was done March 14-17 among 456 registered Democratic primary voters.

Biden Leads Trump By 8% in WI, Sanders Leads Dem Primary By 15%

Sunday, March 17th, 2019

Emerson Polling has released a new poll in the state of Wisconsin that shows, as seems to be the norm, Democrats have the best chance of picking off some of the states Trump won in 2016 if Joe Biden is their nominee.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie Sanders (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Kamala Harris (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Beto O’Rourke (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%

Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 4%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Howard Schultz (I) 5%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 39%
Joe Biden 24%
Elizabeth Warren 14%
Beto O’Rourke 6%
Kamala Harris 5%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Cory Booker 2%
Andrew Yang 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Hickenlooper 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Julian Castro 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 89%
Bill Weld 11%

This poll was done March 15-17 among 775 registered voters.

Dems Lead Trump in MI, Sanders Within 3% Of Biden Nationally

Tuesday, March 12th, 2019

Emerson College has a new poll for the state of Michigan that shows Donald Trump may have a hard time holding this state in 2020 if Joe Biden gets the Democratic nomination.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie Sanders (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Kamala Harris (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 4%

Bernie Sanders (D) 495
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Howard Schultz (I) 6%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Biden 40%
Bernie Sanders 23%
Kamala Harris 12%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Cory Booker 3%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Jay Inslee 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Julian Castro 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 895
Bill Weld 11%

US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Emerson)
Gary Peters (D-inc) 44%
John james (R) 43%

This poll was done March 7-10 among 743 registered voters. Meanwhile at the national level, Monmouth University shows a tightening race in the Democratic primary.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Joe Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Kamala Harris 10%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Beto O’Rourke 6%
Cory Booker 5%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Bill De Blasio 1%
Andrew yang 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Michael Bennet 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Eric Holder 0%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Terry McAuliffe 0%
Marianne Williamson 0%
Steve Bullock 0%
John Delaney 0%

And for the first test that I am aware of to include my Governor Larry Hogan against Trump.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Donald Trump (inc) 74%
Bill Weld 18%

Donald Trump (inc) 75%
Larry Hogan 17%

Considering I wrote his name in for the General Election in 2016, I’d have no problem voting for him in a GOP primary in 2020 if his name was actually there. This poll was done March 1-4 among 746 registered voters.

Sanders Surges Against Biden, O’Rourke Falls Back in IA

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

CNN and The Des Moines Register have put out a new poll for the Democratic caucus in Iowa and it shows Joe Biden’s lead shrinking down to 2% over Bernie Sanders while nobody else even gets to double digits.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (CNN/DMR)
Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Kamala Harris 7%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Cory Booker 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Michael Bennet 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
John Delaney 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Erc Swalwell 0%
John Hickenlooper 0%
Marianne Williamson 0%
Andrew Yang 0%

I am starting to become surprised at how fast the campaigns of Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rurke and even Kirsten Gillibrand have completely stalled. Gillibrand stuck at 0% after being in the race for about seven weeks has to be devastating for her. This poll was done March 3-6 among 400 likely caucus goers.

Biden Dominates Dems in SC, Trump Leads General Election

Sunday, March 3rd, 2019

Joe Biden dominates the Democratic field in South Carolina according to a new poll from Emerson College.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Biden 37%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Kamala Harris 9%
Cory Booker 6%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
John Delaney 0%
Julian Castro 0%

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 90%
Bill Weld 10%

Trump does lead everyone in the General Election in South Carolina, as he should if he hopes to win re-election.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Joe Biden (D) 48%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Bernie Sanders (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Cory Booker (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 56%
Kamala Harris (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 56%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 56%
Amy Klobuchar (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Bernie Sanders (D) 42%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

This poll was done February 28-March 2 among 755 registered voters.

Sanders Leads Biden By 4%, Trump Leads Kasich By 41% in NH

Thursday, February 28th, 2019

We have a second poll in a row from the state of New Hampshire showing Bernie Sanders now ahead of Joe Biden in the Democratic primary race for President according to a new poll from the University of New Hampshire.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (UNH)
Bernie Sanders 26%
Joe Biden 22%
Kamala Harris 10%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Michael Bloomberg 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Delaney 0%
John Hickenloopoer 0%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 68%
John Kasich 17%
Bill Weld 3%

This poll was done February 18-26 among 218 likely Republican primary voters and 240 likely Democratic primary voters.

Trump Below 50% Against Dems in TX

Thursday, February 28th, 2019

Quinnipiac University has put out a poll today for the state of Texas showing Donald Trump below 50% against a slew of Democratic candidates.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Julian Castro (D) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Kamala Harris (D) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%

In the US Senate race, should Beto O’Rourke decide to challenge John Cornyn instead, they would start out tied.

US SENATE – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
John Cornyn (R-inc) 46%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 46%

This poll was done February 20-25 among 1222 registered voters. For Quinnipiac’s most recent record in Texas, in their final poll before the 2018 elections, they had Ted Cruz up 51%-46% over Beto O’Rourke (it ended up 51%-48%) and Greg Abbott up 54%-40% over Lupe Valdez (it ended up 56%-43%).