Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Clinton Leads in NC and PA, Tied in NV, Trump Leads in OH and GA

Saturday, September 24th, 2016

Yesterday, Democracy Corps released polls in four states and it shows Trump still struggling more in the state of North Carolina than he is in Nevada or Ohio.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (DC)
Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (DC)
Clinton 42%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (DC)
Trump 41%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (DC)
Clinton 46%
Trump 38%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

These poll were done September 10-19 among likely voters in each state. Today, we have a new poll from Landmark and Rosetta Stone showing Donald Trump holding a 4% lead in the state of Georgia.

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Landmark/Rosetta)
Donald Trump 47%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Gary Johnson 6%

This poll was done September 21-22 among 600 likely voters.

Polls From IA, CO, VA and GA

Thursday, September 22nd, 2016

Quinnipiac University released polls earlier today for Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and Colorado.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Quinnipiac)
Trump 50%
Clinton 44%

Trump 44%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Clinton 47%
Trump 47%

Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac)
Clinton 50%
Trump 43%

Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
Trump 50%
Clinton 44%

Trump 47%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 9%

These polls were done September 13-21 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile, the local PBS station in Colorado shows a much larger lead for Clinton in that state.

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Rocky Mountain PBS)
Clinton 44%
Trump 35%

Clinton 41%
Trump 34%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%

This poll was done September 14-18 among likely voters.

Trump Leads in NC, NV and OH, Clinton Leads in VA, WI and IL

Thursday, September 22nd, 2016

Two days ago I mentioned that North Carolina and Nevada were trending to Donald Trump. Yesterday morning, PPP’s poll pushed NC to Trump and then yesterday evening, Fox News released some “swing state” polling that has pushed Nevada into Trump’s column and brought him up to 265 electoral votes. Also polled was North Carolina and Ohio.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Fox News)
Trump 43%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 8%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Fox News)
Trump 45%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 6%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Fox News)
Trump 42%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

These polls were done September 18-20 among likely voters. In Virginia, Roanoke College is showing Trump still having issues in trying to win this state.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Roanoke)
Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

This poll was done September 11-20 among 841 likely voters. Meanwhile this morning, Emerson College has polls out for Wisconsin and Illinois that has Clinton with high single-digit leads in both states.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Emerson)
Clinton 45%
Trump 38%
Johnson 11%
Stein 2%

PRESIDENT – ILLINOIS (Emerson)
Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

The WI poll was done September 19-20 and the IL poll was done September 19-21 among likely voters in each state.

Trump Leads in NC By 2%, Within 3% of Clinton in WI

Wednesday, September 21st, 2016

As if on cue, after posting the state of race in the previous post, Public Policy Polling released a new poll this morning that has tipped the state of North Carolina to Donald Trump and has brought Hillary Clinton down to 279 electoral votes.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Donald Trump (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Gary Johnson (L) 6%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Deborah Ross (R) 41%
Richard Burr (R-inc) 41%
Sean Haugh (L) 4%

This poll was done September 18-20 among 1024 likely voters. Meanwhile, Marquette University Law School has Trump moving to within 3% of Clinton in the state of Wisconsin.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
Donald Trump (R) 38%
Gary Johnson (l) 11%
Jill Stein (G) 2%

This poll was done September 15-18 among 802 registered voters.

THR EV Watch: Clinton 294, Trump 244

Tuesday, September 20th, 2016

I took some time to catch up on The Hedgehog Report Electoral College Watch today. In lieu of posting the individual polls over the last few days, I thought I;d take a look at where things currently stand.

Right now, based on polling, Hillary Clinton holds a 294-244 electoral vote lead over Donald Trump.

Based on polling as of right now, Trump would takes the following states won by Barack Obama in 2012: Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Clinton would take the following state won by Mitt Romney in 2012: North Carolina.

More recent polling is showing trends towards Trump in Nevada and North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, but that only adds up to an additional 22 electoral votes, which still would leave Trump short of 270 electoral votes.

Open Thread Sunday!

Sunday, September 18th, 2016

About all I have time for this morning….

2016 Week 2 NFL Picks

Sunday, September 18th, 2016

Before we get to this week’s picks, a quick look back at how I did last week.

WEEK 1 NFL PICKS – WINNERS
Baltimore beat Buffalo
Green Bay beat Jacksonville
Kansas City beat San Diego
Houston beat Chicago
Philadelphia beat Cleveland
Cincinnati beat N.Y. Jets
Seattle beat Miami
N.Y. Giants beat Dallas
Pittsburgh beat Washington

WEEK 1 NFL PICKS – LOSERS
Carolina lost to Denver
New Orleans lost to Oakland
Tennessee lost to Minnesota
Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay
Indianapolis lost to Detroit
Arizona lost to New England
L.A. Rams lost to San Francisco

A 9-7 start to the season puts me tied for 7th among the so-called experts at ESPN, which also means I am tied for last place.

ESPN NFL EXPERTS
Merrill Hoge 11-5
KC Joyner 10-6
Mike Golic 10-6
Matt Bowen 10-6
Adam Caplan 10-6
Kevin Seifert 10-6
ME 9-7
Dan Graziano 9-7
Ron Jaworski 9-7
Seth Wickersham 9-7

The turnover at ESPN this off-season really pared back the number of people picking games clearly. Now without further ado, the Hedgehog Report pick for Week 2 of the 2016 NFL season.

2016 WEEK 2 NFL PICKS
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (Lost this one already)
New Orleans at N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm FOX
Kansas City at Houston 1:00 pm CBS
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00 pm CBS
Dallas at Washington 1:00 pm FOX
Miami at New England 1:00 pm CBS
Tennessee at Detroit 1:00 pm CBS
Baltimore at Cleveland 1:00 pm CBS
San Francisco at Carolina 1:00 pm FOX
Tampa Bay at Arizona 4:05 pm FOX
Seattle at L.A. Rams 4:05 pm FOX
Indianapolis at Denver 4:25 pm CBS
Jacksonville at San Diego 4:25 pm CBS
Atlanta at Oakland 4:25 pm CBS
Green Bay at Minnesota 8:30 pm NBC
Philadelphia at Chicago 8:30 pm ESPN Mon

Too bad the Ravens won’t be seeing RGIII this week….

Trump Leads Clinton in OH and IA, Trails By Only 3% in VA

Thursday, September 15th, 2016

Add Suffolk University to the list of pollsters now showing Donald Trump moving ahead in the state of Ohio.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Suffolk)
Donald Trump (R) 42%
Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
Gary Johnson (L) 4%
Jill Stein (G) 1%

This poll was done September 12-14 among 500 likely voters. Meanwhile in Iowa, Monmouth University now shows Donald Trump with an 8% lead.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Monmouth)
Donald Trump (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
Gary Johnson (L) 8%
Jill Stein (G) 2%

This poll was done September 12-14 among 404 likely voters. In Virginia, the University of Mary Washington has Trump within 3% of Clinton.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (UMW)
Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
Donald Trump (R) 37%
Gary Johnson (L) 8%
Jill Stein (G) 1%

This poll was done September 6-12 among 685 likely voters. It is starting to become increasingly clear that Hillary Clinton’s medical episode from Sunday might have caused a lot of damage to Clinton. What else can describe such a precipitous drop in Clinton’s standing this week?

Trump/Clinton Tied in CBS/NYT Poll, Trump Leads BY 6% in LAT/USC Poll

Thursday, September 15th, 2016

The good polling news for Donald Trump rolls into another day as CBS News and The New York Times are now showing the race as a dead heat tie.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (CBS/NYT)
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Clinton 42%
Trump 42%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

This poll was done September 9-13 among likely votes with leaners. Add to that today tracking poll from The Los Angeles Times and USC that shows Trump opening up a 6% lead nationally.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (LAT/USC)
Trump 47%
Clinton 41%

Could Hillary Clinton actually lose this election?

Trump Leads in OH, FL and NV

Wednesday, September 14th, 2016

The good polling news for Donald Trump continued today with Quinnipiac University where Trump has sliced what was a double-digit deficit less than three weeks ago down to 5%, 2% in the four-way race.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Quinnipiac)
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

Clinton 41%
Trump 39%
Johnson 13%
Stein 4%

This poll was done September 9-13 among 960 likely voters. Reuters and Ipsos have the four-way race tied and Clinton only up by a single percentage point head-to-head.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters)
Clinton 40%
Trump 39%

Clinton 39%
Trump 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

This edition was done September 8-12 among likely voters. Moving to the state level, CNN and Opinion Research confirmed what Bloomberg was showing this morning, Trump now ahead in Ohio while also showing Trump ahead in Florida.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (CNN/ORC)
Trump 50%
Clinton 46%

Trump 46%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

US SENATE – OHIO (CNN/ORC)
Rob Portman (R-inc) 58%
Ted Strickland (D) 37%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (CNN/ORC)
Trump 50%
Clinton 46%

Trump 47%
Clinton 44%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (CNN/ORC)
Marco Rubio (R-inc) 54%
Patrick Murphy (D) 43%

Both polls were done September 7-12 among likely voters in each state. Finally in Nevada, Monmouth University shows Donald Trump moving into the lead there as well.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Monmouth)
Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 8%

US SENATE – NEVADA (Monmouth)
Joe Heck (R) 46%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 43%
Tom Jones (AIP) 4%

This poll was done September 11-13 among 406 likely voters.