Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Trump Leads GOP Nationally and in NH, Second Place in IA

Sunday, July 26th, 2015

The disaster for the Republican Party that is Donald Trump continues unabated today as we have a set of polls showing how utterly blind to reality a large chunk of Republican voters are both nationally and in the two early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Donald Trump is now on top of the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (CNN/ORC)
Donald Trump 18%
Jeb Bush 15%
Scott Walker 10%
Ted Cruz 7%
Rand Paul 6%
Marco Rubio 6%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Chris Christie 4%
John Kasich 4%
Rick Perry 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (CNN/ORC)
Hillary Clinton 56%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Joe Biden 15%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Martin O’Malley 0%

This poll was done July 22-25 among registered voters. But wait, it gets worse. NBC News and Marist College released polls for Iowa and New Hampshire this morning that shows Trump surging in both of these early states.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (Marist)
Scott Walker 19%
Donald Trump 17%
Jeb Bush 12%
Ben Carson 8%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Marco Rubio 4%
Rick Perry 3%
Chris Christie 2%
John Kasich 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Jim Gilmore <1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Marist)
Donald Trump 21%
Jeb Bush 14%
Scott Walker 12%
John Kasich 7%
Chris Christie 6%
Ben Carson 6%
Ted Cruz 5%
Marco Rubio 5%
Rand Paul 4%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Carly Fiorina 2%
George Pataki 2%
Rick Perry <1%
Bobby Jindal <1%
Lindsey Graham <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Jim Gilmore <1%

Just absolutely mind boggling that there are this many Republican voters who really want Donald Trump to be the face of the party. On the Democratic side, Hillary CLcinton still leads in both states by double digits.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Marist)
Hillary Clinton 55%
Bernie Sanders 26%
Martin O’Malley 4%
Jim Webb 2%
Lincoln Chafee 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Marist)
Hillary Clinton 47%
Bernie Sanders 34%
Martin O’Malley 5%
Lincoln Chafee 2%
Jim Webb 1%

Both sets of polls were done July 14-21 among registered voters in each party.

What is really depressing is that even if Republican voters eventually manage to avoid the embarrassment of Donald Trump being the face of the party, the damage that has already been done to the brand may be something that won’t be recoverable in 2016.

Vitter Trails Edwards in LA

Friday, July 24th, 2015

Since we hit 1000 comments, I guess I should get a new thread up. Could David Vitter actually lose the gubernatorial seat for Republicans in Louisiana? A new poll just made public done by Market Insight indicates he is currently trailing the jungle primary.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – PRIMARY (Market Insight)
John Bel Edwards (D) 30%
David Vitter (R) 24%
Scott Angelle (R) 14%
Jay Dardenne (R) 12%

This articel onyl indicates this poll was done in “late June”. The good news for Vitter is that the combined Republican vite hits 50%, meaning he would at least have that in his favor in the runoff election.

Another National Poll Shows Trump Leading GOP, Ayotte Leads Hassan by 6% in NH

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2015

Public Policy Polling joins the chorus of polling organizations showing Donald Trump with a national lead in the Republican primary.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Donald Trump 19%
Scott Walker 17%
Jeb Bush 12%
Ben Carson 10%
Marco Rubio 10%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Rand Paul 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Chris Christie 3%
John Kasich 3%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Rick Perry 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Lindsey Graham 0%
George Pataki 0%

Meanwhile in the General Election, despite apparently trailing Rubio, Bush and Walker in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, PPP claims Hillary Clinton leads everyone nationally.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Jeb Bush (R) 41%

Jeb Bush (R) 44%
Bernie Sanders (D) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ben Carson (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Chris Christie (R) 38%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Ted Cruz (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Carly Fiorina (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Mike Huckabee (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Rand Paul (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 41%

Marco Rubio 41%
Bernie Sanders 36%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R) 37%

Bernie Sanders (D) 47% .
Donald Trump (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46% .
Scott Walker (R) 41%

Scott Walker (R) 40%
Bernie Sanders (D) 39%

This poll was done July 120-21 among 1087 registered voters. Meanwhile, more from that University of New Hampshire poll, this time for the US Senate race where Kelly Ayotte has opened up a 6% lead over Maggie Hassan after only leading y 2% two months ago.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH)
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc) 47%
Maggie Hassan (D) 41%

This poll was done July 7-20 among 532 likely voters.

Clinton Trails Walker/Bush/Rubio in CO/IA/VA

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2015

In a poll that almost seems to good to be true, Quinnipiac University claims the top three legitimate Republicans hold leads over Hillary Clinton in the states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. Unfortunately Donald Trump was not included in the poll so we could all see what an unmitigated disaster he would be as a General Election candidate.

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Rubio 46%
Clinton 38%

Bush 41%
Clinton 36%

Walker 47%
Clinton 38%

Rubio 49%
Biden 35%

Bush 45%
Biden 36%

Walker 48%
Biden 36%

Rubio 46%
Sanders 35%

Bush 43%
Sanders 37%

Walker 44%
Sanders 36%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Quinnipiac)

Rubio 44%
Clinton 36%

Bush 42%
Clinton 36%

Walker 45%
Clinton 37%

Rubio 45%
Biden 37%

Bush 44%
Biden 37%

Walker 47%
Biden 36%

Rubio 43%
Sanders 36%

Bush 42%
Sanders 38%

Walker 44%
Sanders 36%

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac)

Rubio 43%
Clinton 41%

Bush 42%
Clinton 39%

Walker 43%
Clinton 40%

Rubio 45%
Biden 41%

Bush 45%
Biden 40%

Walker 45%
Biden 41%

Rubio 44%
Sanders 37%

Bush 46%
Sanders 36%

Walker 44%
Sanders 36%

These polls were done July 9-20 among 1231 registered voters in Colorado, 1236 registered voters in Iowa and 1209 registered voters in Virginia.

Hassan Leads Sununu By 16% in NH Gov Race

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

WMUR and the University of New Hampshire have released a new poll for the gubernatorial race in New Hampshire and it shows the Democrats’ best bet of holding the seat would be for Maggie Hassan to run for another term.

GOVERNOR – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH/WMUR)
Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 48%
Chris Sununu (R) 32%

Chris Sununu (R) 36%
Colin Van Ostern (D) 26%

Chris Sununu (R) 36%
Chris Pappas (D) 28%

This poll was done July 7-20 among 472 likely voters.

Trump Leads Another National Primary Poll

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

Add Morning Consult to the list of pollsters that are now showing a plurality of Republican voters who want Donald Trump to be the face of their party.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Morning Consult)
Donald Trump 22%
Jeb Bush 15%
Scott Walker 12%
Ben Carson 8%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Someone Else 3%

This poll was done July 17-20 among 1978 registered voters. Just shaking my head….

Trump Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead Over GOP Field

Monday, July 20th, 2015

The voters of the Republican Party continue to just amaze me with their absolute stupidity in the latest poll form ABC News and The Washington Post.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (ABC News/WaPo)
Donald Trump 24%
Scott Walker 13%
Jeb Bush 12%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Marco Rubio 7%
Ben Carson 6%
Rand Paul 6%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rick Perry 4%
Chris Christie 3%
John Kasich 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Carly Fiorina 0%
Lindsey Graham 0%

What’s even worse to think about, his lead could have been even bigger if this statement in the article is to be believed regarding his attacks on John McCain.

Support for Trump fell sharply on the one night that voters were surveyed following those comments. Telephone interviewing for the poll began Thursday, and most calls were completed before the news about the remarks was widely reported.

Although the sample size for the final day was small, the decline was statistically significant.

SO despite this drop, he still has a double-digit lead. Just absolutely depressing. This poll was done July 16-19.

Walker Leads Trump By 9% in IA

Monday, July 20th, 2015

Scott Walker is ahead of Donald Trump by 9% in the state of Iowa according to a new poll from Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (Monmouth)
Scott Walker 22%
Donald Trump 13%
Ben Carson 8%
Jeb Bush 7%
Ted Cruz 7%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Marco Rubio 5%
Bobby Jindal 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Rick Santorum 3%
Rick Perry 3%
John Kasich 2%
Chris Christie 1%
George Pataki <1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Lindsey Graham 0%

This poll was done July 16-19 among 452 likely voters.

Cuccinelli Leads GOP Gov Field in VA

Monday, July 20th, 2015

I had the pleasure of joining the Kudzu Vine radio show last night with our old friend Tim to discuss some Maryland politics.

Republicans in Virginia appeared to have learned absolutely nothing from Ken Cuccinelli’s embarrassing run for Governor in 2013. They appear to want to give him another chance to lose according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Ken Cuccinelli 37%
Eric Cantor 16%
Ed Gillespie 8%
Bill Bolling 8%
Mark Obenshain 7%
Pete Snyder 1%

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (PPP)

Mark Herring (D) 36%
Eric Cantor (R) 33%

Ken Cuccinelli (R) 38%
Mark Herring (D) 38%

Mark Obenshain (R) 34%
Mark Herring (D) 34%

Ed Gillespie (R) 38%
Mark Herring (D) 34%

Eric Cantor (R) 35%
Ralph Northam (D) 32%

Ken Cuccinelli (R) 37%
Ralph Northam (D) 35%

Mark Obenshain (R) 36%
Ralph Northam (D) 32%

Ed Gillespie (R) 37%
Ralph Northam (D) 30%

This poll was done July 13-15 among 1170 registered voters.

Trump’s Classless Tweet

Friday, July 17th, 2015

This Tweet from Donald Trump is just absurd:

Whatever you think of John McCain politically, calling someone who was a prisoner of war a “dummy” and criticizing his time at Annapolis, to me, is just pathetic. Sadly, this is the man a good portion of Republican voters want to be the face of the Republican Party.