Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Biden Leads Democrats in IA and Nationally By Double Digits

Sunday, December 16th, 2018

We have the first poll for the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2020 from the partnership of CNN and The Des Moines Register that shows Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over second place Bernie Sanders.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (CNN/DMR)
Joe Biden 32%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Beto O’Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Kamala Harris 5%
Cory Booker 4%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julián Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Eric Holder 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Tom Steyer 0%
Eric Swalwell 0%
Andrew Yang 0%
Steve Bullock 0%
Eric Garcetti 0%

This poll was done December 10-13 among 455 likely caucus voters. CNN also released a national primary poll on Friday that showed the same three candidates in the top three nationally.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (CNN)
Joe Biden 30%
Bernie Sanders 14%
Beto O’Rourke 9%
Cory Booker 5%
Kamala Harris 4%
John Kerry 4%
Elizabeth Warren 3%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Eric Holder 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Terry McAuliffe 1%
Eric Garcetti <1%
John Hickenlooper <1%
Julián Castro <1%
John Delaney 0%
Tom Steyer 0%

This poll was done December 6-9 among likely Democratic primary voters. Weird they included the 2004 loser John Kerry in the national poll, but not in their Iowa poll.

Edwards/Abraham Tied in Louisiana Runoff Election

Friday, December 14th, 2018

We have a new poll from Remington Research that shows Jon Bel Edwards short of the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff, where he is currently in a dead heat with the leading Republican.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – PRIMARY (Remington)
Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 43%
Ralph Abraham (R) 31%
Eddie Rispone (R) 9%

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – RUNOFF (Remington)
Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 44%
Ralph Abraham (R) 44%

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – RUNOFF (Remington)
Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 46%
Eddie Rispone (R) 39%

This poll was done December 11-12 among 1680 likely voters. This gives me the opportunity to highlight the return of The Hedgehog Report PollWatch pages, which after going into hiding the last two cycles, are back. Along the top menu bar below The Hedgehog Report logo, you can click on the three states that have elections coming up next year at the gubernatorial level.

Castro Forms Exploratory Committee for 2020

Wednesday, December 12th, 2018

There have already been a few lower-tier Democrats who have said they are running for President, but I would say this might be the first of what the media would consider major candidates to at least formally announce he is forming an exploratory committee.

Seems early, but with the number of candidates likely announcing after New Year’s Day, might as well get your name out there in th empty space instead of it getting mixed up with other candidate’s announcing at the same time.

Biden Leads 2020 Dem Field

Tuesday, December 11th, 2018

Emerson College yesterday released a new national primary poll for the Democratic Party that included a somewhat limited list of names and it shows Joe Biden with a small lead over Bernie Sanders while Beto O’Rourke stands in 3rd place.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Biden 26%
Bernie Sanders 22%
Beto O’Rourke 15%
Kamala Harris 9%
Sherrod Brown 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%

This poll was done December 6-9 among likely Democratic primary voters.

Biden Leads Dem Field for 2020, Trump At 44% in GOP Primary

Tuesday, December 4th, 2018

We have new primary polls for both parties in the race for President in 2020 from Harvard and Harris.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Harvard CAPS/Harris)
Joe Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Beto O’Rourke 7%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Cory Booker 4%
Michael Bloomberg 4%
Kamala Harris 2%
Michael Avenatti 2%

The poll also included a trial with Hillary Clinton and she would place 3rd.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Harvard CAPS/Harris)
Joe Biden 25%
Bernie Sanders 15%
Hillary Clinton 13%
Beto O’Rourke 9%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Kamala Harris 2%
Michael Avenatti 1%

On the other side, a plurality of Republicans still love Trump although he is below 50% in his own primary.

PRESIDENT – NATIPONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Harvard CAPS/Harris)
Donald Trump (inc) 44%
John Kasich 6%
Mitt Romney 6%
Paul Ryan 5%
Ted Cruz 5%
Jeb Bush 3%
Nikki Haley 2%
Jeff Flake 2%
Ben Sasse 1%

This poll was done November 27-28 among registered primary voters in each party.

Election Night Thread – Mississippi Runoff

Tuesday, November 27th, 2018

Polls close at 8pm EST…Go!

Hyde-Smith Leads Espy by 10% in MS Runoff

Monday, November 26th, 2018

A new poll paid for by RRH Elections has Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith up by double digits over Democrat Mike Espy in this final race of the 2018 election cycle for the US Senate.

US SENATE – MISSISSIPPI – RUNOFF (RRH)
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 54%
Mike Espy (D) 44%

This poll was done November 18-24 among 684 likely voters. The election is tomorrow night and the polling has been nearly non-existent in this race for the runoff and considering that the final weekend was Thanksgiving weekend, not sure how reliable any poll could be over this past weekend.

Michelle Obama Leads Trump by 7%

Sunday, November 18th, 2018

In a potential match up between Donald Trump and Michelle Obama in 2020, Obama leads Trump by a 7% margin according to a new poll by Rasmussen Reports.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
Michelle Obama (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

This poll was done November 12-13 among 1000 likely voters. Of course, it should be noted that one day before the Election two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports claim Republicans had a lead in the Generic Ballot US House test, only to see Republicans lose by more than 7%. As far as I can tell, the gang at Rasmussen Reports has yet to explain why they were so far off….

O’Rourke Jumps To 3rd in 2020 Democratic Primary Race for President

Tuesday, November 13th, 2018

We have a new poll from Politico and Morning Consult that shows Joe Biden still leading Bernie Sanders in a 2020 primary race. Jumping to third place in this new poll is the losing candidate in the Texas Us Senate race, Beto O’Rourke.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Morning Consult/Politico)
Joe Biden 26%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Beto O’Rourke 8%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Kamala Harris 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Gavin Newsom 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Howard Schultz 1%
Eric Garcetti 1%
Eric Holder 0%
Deval Patrick 0%
John Delaney 0%
Michael Avenatti 0%

This poll was done November 7-9 among 733 registered primary voters.

Biden Leads 2020 Primary Field

Thursday, November 8th, 2018

Next!

We have a new poll for the Democratic primary race for President from Harris and Harvard and it shows Joe Biden starting the new election cycle with a lead over Bernie Sanders for the right to take on Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Harvard/Harris)
Joe Biden 25%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Hillary Clinton 12%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Kamala Harris 4%
Michael Bloomberg 4%
Corry Booker 3%

This poll was done November 5-6 among 680 registered primary voters.