Archive for the ‘2006 Governor’ Category

MD: Light Turnout For GOP and Democrats (UPDATED)

Tuesday, November 7th, 2006

An interesting email was sent out by the Ehrlich campaign and I do not know what to make of it.

Dear Supporter,

Would you please do me a favor?

Our internal poll tracking is showing that turnout is light in our key counties. If this trend continues through the rest of the day we may face real trouble. In 2002 we won because of the incredible turnout. Our latest comparison of turnout, shows a decline that could put the election in jeopardy.

I need you to immediately forward this email to 10 of your friends, family, and coworkers and urge them to vote now!

As soon as you have sent the email, please go vote right away.

Thank you and Godspeed,

Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr.
Governor

Now it is hard to tell if this isn’t just a psychological ploy to make sure people get to the polls by pretending your turnout is low to ensure everyone who has not yet voted does so. But it seems to me that this could backfire since it could imply to your supporters that you have already lost and that could actually cause people who might get this email at work to decide there is no point in even voting.

Just seems like an odd email to send….

UPDATE (3:19pm): OK, this is too funny. Now Martin O’Malley’s campaign sent out an almost identical email to his supporters.

Dear Dave,

This is it. In just a few hours, the polls will close.

It looks like turnout is not as high as it needs to be in some of the key precincts that will deliver our victory tonight. I really need you to go and vote – right now.

I lost my first election by 44 votes, and I vowed never to let that happen again. Anthony and I were on the road all last night, visiting diners and shift changes at 24-hour workplaces – and we’re still working polling places, as I write.

We need you to please forward this email to at least 10 friends and family members – to make sure they vote. And then immediately go to your polling place, if you haven’t already voted.

After all these months of hard work, we’re running out of time to make Maryland’s government work for working families. We need to turn out every possible vote.

Thank you for all your help. And thank you for voting today

Martin

Maybe I was jumping the gun about Ehrlich’s email. Interestingly, neither Steele nor Cardin seem too concerned about turnout in their respective races as I have not received similar emails from them.

Afternoon Poll Update

Monday, November 6th, 2006

It looks like George Allen’s days as Senator are coming to a close if the latest poll form Survey USA is to be believed.

VA SENATE
James Webb (D) 52%
George Allen (R) 44%

This poll was done November 3-5 among 741 likely voters. When all is said and done, if Allen does end up losing, his campaign may go down as one of the worst of all time. He deserves to lose based on the campaign he ran. More bad news as Republicans hoping for a last minute surge from Mike DeWine are probably going to be disappointed with two new polls today, one from The Columbus Dispatch and the other from the University of Cincinnati.

OH SENATE (Columbus Dispatch)
Sherrod Brown (D) 62%
Mike DeWine (R) 38%

OH GOVERNOR (Columbus Dispatch)
Ted Strickland (D) 67%
Ken Blackwell (R) 31%

OH SENATE (U of Cincinnati)
Sherrod Brown (D) 56%
Mike DeWine (R) 44%

OH GOVERNOR (U of Cincinnati)
Ted Strickland (D) 59%
Ken Blackwell (R) 37%

The University poll was done November 1-5 while the Columbus Dispatch poll was done October 25-November 3. The final polls for Quinnipiac University in Connecticut and New Jersey.

CT SENATE
Joe Lieberman (I) 50%
Ned Lamont (D) 38%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 8%

NJ SENATE
Bobby Menendez (D) 48%
Junior Kean (R) 43%

The CT poll was done October 31-November among 676 likely voters. The NJ poll was done October 30-November 5 among 917 likely voters. And finally, Rasmussen publicly released his latest Missouri poll.

MO SENATE
Jim Talent (R) 49%
Claire McCaskill (D) 48%

That’s all…for now….

Morning Poll Update

Monday, November 6th, 2006

The last day. USA Today and their buddies at Gallup have some new statewide polls.

MO SENATE
Claire McCaskill (D) 49%
Jim Talent (R) 45%

MT SENATE
Jon Tester (D) 50%
Conrad Burns (R) 41%

NJ SENATE
Bobby Menendez (D) 50%
Junior Kean () 40%

RI SENATE
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 48%
Lincoln Chafee (R) 45%

TN SENATE
Bob Corker (R) 49%
Harold Ford (D) 46%

VA SENATE
George Allen (R) 49%
James Webb (D) 46%

All these polls were done between November 1-3 or 4 among likely voters. Keep in mind, however, how poorly Gallup performed in 2004 in their state polls when they said Kerry was going to win Ohio and Florida and Bush was going to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A couple of Survey USA polls I didn’t catch last night in Minnesota and Maine.

MN HOUSE CD 5
Keith Ellison (D) 49%
Alan Fine (R) 24%

ME GOVERNOR
John Baldacci (D) 36%
Chandler Woodcock (R) 30%
Barabara Merrill (I) 21%
Pat LaMarche (G) 11%

The MN poll was done October 31-November 4 and the ME poll was done November 2-4, both among likely voters. Strategic Vision released their final polls in a mess of states. You can get full results here, but in summary.

MI GOVERNOR
Jennifer Granholm (D) 52%
Dick DeVos (R) 42%

MI SENATE
Debbie Stabenow (D) 50%
Michael Bouchard (R) 44%

PA SENATE
Bob Casey (D) 52%
Rick Santorum (R) 40%

PA GOVERNOR
Ed Rendell (D) 58%
Lynn Swann (R) 35%

WA SENATE
Maria Cantwell (D) 53%
Mike McGavick (R) 42%

FL SENATE
Bill Nelson (D) 58%
Katherine Harris (R) 35%

FL GOVERNOR,/b>
Charlie Crist (R) 51%
Jim Davis (D) 44%

GA GOVERNOR
Sonny Perdue (R) 51%
Mark Taylor (D) 35%

NJ SENATE
Bobby Menendez (D) 49%
Junior Kean (R) 42%

WI GOVERNOR
Jim Doyle (D) 48%
Mark Green (R) 45%

All these polls were done November 2-4. That’ll get you started…

Sunday Night Poll Update

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

Polls, polls, everywhere polls on this final full weekend of campaigning.

Survey USA is out with a slew of polls in California, Kansas, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan, Connecticut.

CA GOVERNOR
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 53%
Phil Angelides (D) 38%

CA SENATE
Dianne Feinstein (D) 60%
Dick Mountjoy (R) 31%

KS GOVERNOR
Kathleen Sebelius (D) 57%
Jim Barnett (R) 40%

FL GOVERNOR
Charlei Crist (R) 49%
Jim Davis (D) 47%

FL SENATE
Bill Nelson (D) 59%
Katherine Harris (R) 36%

SC GOVERNOR
Mark Sanford (R) 57%
Tommy Moore (D) 40%

MI SENATE
Debbie Stabenow (D) 52%
Michael Bouchard (R) 42%

MI GOVERNOR
Jennifer Granholm (D) 51%
Dick DeVos (R) 45%

CT SENATE
Joe Lieberman (I) 49%
Ned Lamont (D) 38%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 9%

All these polls were November 2-4. Click on the links above for the particulars. Two polls in New Jersey, one from Marist College and the other from Monmouth University, listed in this order below.

NJ SENATE
Bobby Menendez (D) 50%
Junior Kean (R) 42%

Bobby Menendez (D) 45%
Junior Kean (R) 42%

Both polls were done November 1-3, 619 likely voters for Marist College and 1068 likely voters for Monmouth University. Some polls from Democrat John Zogby for Florida Governor, Senate and a House race.

FL SENATE
Bill Nelson (D) 60%
Katherine Harris (R) 315

FL GOVERNOR
Charlie Crist (R) 48%
Jim Davis (D) 38%

FL HOUSE CD 22
Ron Klein (D) 49%
Clay Shaw (D) 39%

These polls were done October 31-November 2 among 804 likely voters statewide and 401 voters in District 22. In Iowa, a new poll from Selzer and Company has some grim news for Republicans.

IA GOVERNOR
Chet Culver (D) 52%
Jim Nussle (R) 43%

IA HOUSE CD 1
Bruce Braley (D) 56%
Mike Whalen (R) 35

If you remember, Braley was the Congressman who told John Kerry to stay as far away as possible after he ridiculed the intelligence of the military. Looks like it was a smart move. This poll was done October 31-November 3. There are other polls out there, but these were the important ones.

Honestly, my state polls pages have fallen out of date since I have just about zero time to actually get to them. At this point, it probably doesn’t matter too much and, frankly, I don’t care about them at this point. They served their purpose. Maybe after the election, I will go back and update them just for the record to be able to look back on in the future.

A Shift To The GOP?

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

I hate generic poll questions because they are absolutely useless in predicting specific elections in districts. But there is no question they represent trendlines for people to use when looking at an election on a macro level. Therefore, what is one to make of three nationally respected polls coming out today all showing a dramatic shift to Republicans. First we had ABC News and The Washington Post showing the gap shrinking to 6% from 14% in the same poll two weeks ago.

GENERIC BALLOT (ABC/WaPo)
Democrats 51%
Republicans 45%

Then we have Pew Research also showing a dramatic shift to the GOP, from 11% three weeks ago to 4% today.

GENERIC BALLOT (Pew Research)
Democrats 47%
Republicans 43%

And now, USA Today and Gallup are showing the Democrat’s 23% lead in a poll one month ago is down to a mere 7% today.

GENERIC BALLOT (Gallup)
Democrats 51%
Republicans 44%

Like I said, generic poll numbers don’t really mean anything since every race is a district-by-district battle, but I am sure the Republicans would rather be only down by single digits heading into Election Day than the double digits they were seeing in October.

As they say: Once is an anomaly, twice is a coincidence, is three times is a trend?

New Mason-Dixon Polls

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

The final Mason-Dixon polls came out this morning and seem to show some brightening news that the GOP may be able to hold onto the US Senate.

PA SENATE
Bob Casey (D) 52 %
Rick Santorum (R) 39 %

RI SENATE
Lincoln Chafee (R) 46 %
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 45 %

MO SENATE
Claire McCaskill (D) 46 %
Jim Talent (R) 45 %

NJ SENATE
Bobby Menendez (D) 48 %
Junior Kean (R) 41 %

WA SENATE
Maria Cantwell (D) 54 %
Mike McGavick (R) 38 %

MI SENATE
Debbie Stabenow (D) 53 %
Michael Bouchard (R) 37 %

AZ SENATE
Jon Kyl (R) 49 %
Jim Pederson (D) 41 %

OH SENATE
Sherrod Brown (D) 50 %
Mike DeWine (R) 44 %

MT SENATE
Jon Tester (D) 47 %
Conrad Burns (R) 47 %

TN SENATE
Bob Corker (R) 50 %
Harold Ford Jr. (D) 38 %

VA SENATE
James Webb (D) 46 %
George Allen (R) 45 %

And here are the results from the gubernatorial races.

PA GOVERNOR
Ed Rendell (R) 56%
Lynn Swann (R) 38%

RI GOVERNOR
Don Carcieri (R) 50%
Charles Fogarty (D) 38%

OH GOVERNOR
Ted Strickland (D) 56%
Ken Blackwell (R) 37%

AZ SENATE
Janet Napolitano (D) 61%
Len Munsil (R) 33%

TN GOVERNOR
Phil Bredesen (D) 61%
Jim Bryson (R) 26%

MI GOVERNOR
Jennifer Granholm (D) 52%
Dick DeVos (R) 38%

These polls were done on various days between October 31-November 3 among 625 likely voters.

NH: Conflicting Results In House Races

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

One of the states where Democrats are hoping to take over a seat or two is New Hampshire. Today, there are completely conflicting results on what the potential outcome could be. First, from the University of New Hampshire, it would appear the seat in District 2 is as good as gone as far as the GOP is concerned.

NH HOUSE CD 1
Jeb Bradley (R) 47%
Carol Shea-Porter (D) 42%

NH HOUSE CD 2
Paul Hodes (D) 49%
Charlie Bass (R) 36%

This poll was done October 30-November 2 among 336 likely voters in District 1 and 305 likely voters in District 2. However, a new poll from Research 2000 shows Bass clinging to a 1% lead.

NH HOUSE CD 1
Jeb Bradley (R) 48%
Carol Shea-Porter (D) 40%

NH HOUSE CD 2
Charlie Bass (R) 47%
Paul Hodes (D) 46%

This poll was done November 2-3 among 300 likely voters in each district. A third poll done by the American Research Group also shows Bass slightly ahead.

NH HOUSE CD 2
Charles Bass (R) 47%
Paul Hodes (D) 44%

This poll was done October 30-31 among 619 likely voters. The ARG poll was an internal poll done by Republicans, so take that into account. Since I am on New Hampshire, the first two polls also included the gubernatorial race results.

NH GOVERNOR
John Lynch (D) 72%
Jim Coburn (R) 19%

John Lynch (D) 67%
Jim Coburn (R) 26%

The first listed was the UNH poll and the second was the Research 2000 poll.

Saturday Morning Poll Update

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

The final weekend is here. What did I miss yesterday?

Survey USA had polls in Ohio, Texas, Indiana, Colorado, Arizona, and California.

OH HOUSE CD 6
Charlie Wilson (D) 58%
Chuck Blasdel (R) 39%

TX GOVERNOR
Rick Perry (R) 38%
Chris Bell (D) 22%
Carole Strayhorn (I) 21%
Kinky Friedman (I) 17%

IN HOUSE CD 9
Mike Sodrel (R) 46%
Baron Hill (D) 44%

CO HOUSE CD 4
Marilyn Musgrave (R) 44%
Angie Paccione (D) 43%

AZ SENATE
Jon Kyl (R) 53%
Jim Pederson (D) 40%

AZ GOVERNOR
Janet Napolitano (D) 57%
Len Munsil (R) 38%

CA HOUSE CD 4
John Doolittle (R) 50%
Charles Brown (D) 43%

All these polls were done October 31-November 2 among likely voters. A poll done by some group affiliated with The New York Times had Charlie Crist heading to a huge victory in Florida.

FL GOVERNOR
Charlie Crist (R) 49%
Jim Davis (D) 35%

This poll was done October 28-November 2 among 500 likely voters. A new Mason-Dixon poll in Montana calls the race a dead heat.

MT SENATE
Conrad Burns (R) 47%
Jon Tester (D) 47%

This poll was done October 31-November 2 among 625 likely voters.

Well that’s a start. I will keep updating the numbers as I come across them when I am actually at home today.

After Lunch Poll Update

Friday, November 3rd, 2006

Here’s what I did not get to this morning. In Oregon, the latest poll for The Oregonian has the Democrat ahead.

OR GOVERNOR
Ted Kulongoski (D) 46%
Ron Saxton (R) 39%

This poll was done October 28-31 among 600 likely voters. In Colorado, the next Governor will surely be a Democrat, according to Public Opinion Strategies.

CO GOVERNOR
Bill Ritter (D) 55%
Bob Beauprez (R) 33%

This poll was done October 28-30 among 500 likely voters. Trouble for the GOP in Idaho if the latest poll from Greg Smith and Associates is to be believed.

ID GOVERNOR
James Brady (D) 41%
Butch Otter (R) 36%

ID HOUSE CD 1
Larry Grant (D) 38%
Bill Sali (R) 34%

This poll was done October 25-November 1 among some unknown number of likely voters. That seems to be way too many undecideds this late in the race. Scott Rasmussen has his daily release of polls that everyone already knows about in Alaska, Montana and New Jersey.

AK GOVERNOR
Sarah Palin (R) 45%
Tony Knowles (D) 44%

MT SENATE
Jon Tester (D) 50%
Conrad Burns (R) 46%

NJ SENATE
Bob Menendez (D) 48%
Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 43%

The Alaska poll was done October 29th,and the other two done November 1st, all among 500 likely voters. A new poll in Arizona from The Arizona Daily Star has Pederson with 5% of Kyl.

AZ SENATE
Jon Kyl (R) 46%
Jim Pederson (D) 41%

This poll was done October 25-30 among 400 likely voters. A couple of polls from Research 2000 in Connecticut and Wisconsin.

CT SENATE
Joe Lieberman (I) 51%
Ned Lamont (D) 39%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 7%

WI GOVERNOR
Jim Doyle (D) 50%
Mark Green (R) 44%

Both polls were done October 30-November 1 among 600 likely voters. A new Mason-Dixon poll has Bill Nelson crushing Katherine Harris.

FL SENATE
Bill Nelson (D) 58%
Katherine Harris (R) 34%

In the gubernatorial race, Republican Charlie Crist holds a slim lead.

FL GOVERNOR
Charlie Crist (R) 50%
Jim Davis (D) 43%

This poll was done October 31-November 1 among 625 likely voters.

Late Night Poll Update

Thursday, November 2nd, 2006

Sorry, I wanted to get this up earlier, but ended up at a local Columbia Council meeting for two hours. Anyway, what did I miss today? The University of Washington shows Maria Cantwell moving to a double-digit lead.

WA SENATE
Maria Cantwell (D) 53%
Mike McGavick (R) 41%

This poll was done October 25-31 among 700 registered voters. Two polls from New Jersey showing somewhat differing margins. The first is from Fairleigh Dickinson University and the second is from Rutgers-Eagleton.

NJ SENATE
Bobby Menendez (D) 48%
Junior Kean (R) 38%

Bobby Menendez (D) 46%
Junior Kean (R) 42%

FDU did their poll October 25-31 among 577 likely voters. Rutgers-Eagleton poll was done October 29-31 among 500 likely voters. Survey USA had some new polls tonight in Virginia, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Illinois, Colorado, and California.

CA HOUSE CD 26
David Dreier (R) 54%
Cynthia Matthews (D) 35%

CO GOVERNOR
Bill Ritter (D) 57%
Bob Beauprez (R) 35%

IL GOVERNOR
Rod Blagojevich (D) 45%
Judy Baar Topinka (R) 37%

MA GOVERNOR
Deval Patrick (D) 55%
Kerry Healey (R) 34%
Christy Mihos (I) 6%

VA HOUSE CD 5
Virgil Goode (D) 61%
Al Weed (R) 35%

KY HUOSE CD 3
John Yarmuth (D) 52%
Anne Northup (R) 44%

These polls were done October 30-November 1 among a bunch of likely voters. In New Hampshire, the University of that state shows the Republicans in danger of definitely losing one of the House seats and close to losing both.

NH HOUSE CD 2
Paul Hodes (D) 45%
Charlie Bass (R) 37%

NH HOUSE CD 1
Jeb Bradley (R) 47%
Carol Shea-Porter (D) 42%

This poll was done October 29-November 1 among 352 likely voters in 1 and 330 likely in 2.

I think that I got all of them, but at a minimum, it should be enough to keep you busy for now….