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May 23, 2016

Clinton/Trump Tied Nationally and in Virginia

American Research Group put out a new national poll this morning showing a dead-heat tie between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton nationally.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (ARG)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R) 46%

This poll was done May 17-20 among 980 registered voters. Meanwhile in Virginia, Roanoke College has a poll showing a dead-heat tie in the state run by Hillary Clinton’s friend and a man who is now under FBI investigation.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (RC)
Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
Donald Trump (R) 385

This poll was done May 9-17 among 610 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 6:06 pm
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May 22, 2016

Clinton Leads Trump By 1% in FL and By 5% in OH

After Quinnipiac University claimed last week that Donald Trump holds a 4% lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio, CBS News and YouGov this morning released a poll for the state of Ohio showing Clinton ahead of Trump by 5%.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (CBS/YouGov)
Hillary Clinton 44%
Donald Trump 39%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (CBS/YouGov)
Hillary Clinton 43%
Donald Trump 42%

These polls were done May 16-19 among likely voters.

ABC/WaPo: Trump Leads Clinton by 2% Nationally

We had another national poll out this morning, this time from ABC News and The Washington Post that is jumping aboard the Trump is winning narrative.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo)
Donald Trump 46%
Hillary Clinton 44%

This poll was done May 16-19 among 829 registered voters. So of the big four US television over-the-air networks that released polls this week, CBS and NBC say Hillary Clinton is winning while Fox and ABC are claiming it is Donald Trump is who is ahead.

NBC/WSJ: Clinton Leads Trump By 3% Nationally

NBC News and The Wall Street are siding with CBS News and The New York Times by showing Hillary Clinton with a lead over Donald trump nationally, albeit closer than what they showed in the previous poll.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (NBC/WSJ)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R) 43%

This poll was done May 15-19 among 1000 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 10:31 am
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May 19, 2016

Clinton Leads Trump By 6% Nationally

CBS News and The New York Times are not buying what Fox News and Rasmussen Reports are selling and they are currently showing Hillary Clinton with a 6% lead over Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (CBS/NYT)
Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R) 41%

This poll was done May 13-17 among 1109 registered voters.

Rasmussen Shows Trump Leading Clinton By 5% Nationally

Rasmussen Reports joins Fox News by showing Donald Trump with a lead over Hillary Clinton nationally.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
Donald Trump (R) 42%
Hilary Clinton (D) 37%
Someone Else 13%

This poll was done May 17-18 among 1000 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 4:19 pm
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May 18, 2016

Trump Leads Clinton Nationally By 3%

I’m not sure what happened to the pop-up comment box or why it stopped working, but I will keep trying to figure it out. Meanwhile, Fox News is claiming Donald Trump is now ahead of Hillary Clinton by 3% nationally whether Gary Johnson is included or not.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Foxx Newws)
Donald Trump (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D)

Donald Trump (R) 42%
Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
Gary Johnson (L) 10%

This poll was done May 14-17 among 1021 registered voters.

May 17, 2016

Johnson Hits 14% in NM Against Trump and Clinton

Public Policy Polling did a poll for the state of New Mexico and it shows Gary Johnson reaching double digits in a three-way race against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

PRESIDENT – NEW MEXICO (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
Donald Trump (R) 33%
Gary Johnson (L) 14%

This poll was done May 13-15 among registered voters. I’ve been prepared to track a two-way, but with Trump as the Republican nominee and the potential of a decent third-party candidate form the Libertarian Party taking a decent chunk of voters (a la Ralph Nader in 2000), we may need to include the Libertarian candidate in the tracking of this election going forward.

Trump Leads Clinton By 2% in AZ With Gary Johnson Included

A poll from Public Policy Polling in the state of Arizona shows Donald Trump holding a slim 2% lead in a four-way race in a state won by Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by 9% in 2012.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (PPP)
Donald Trump 40%
Hillary Clinton 38%
Gary Johnson 6%
Jill Stein 2%

Donald Trump 45%
Hillary Clinton 41%

US SENATE – ARIZONA (PPP)
John McCain (R-inc) 42%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 36%

Kelli Ward (R) 37%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 35%

US SENATE – ARIZONA – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
John McCain (inc) 39%
Kelli Ward 26%
Alex Melusky 4%
Scott McBean 3%
Clair Van Steenwyk 2%

This poll was done May 13-15 among 896 registered voters and 443 Republican primary voters.

May 15, 2016

Trump Only leads Clinton By 4% in GA

We now have a second poll out of a particular state showing Donald Trump making states competitive that have not been so since two decades ago. Unfortunately the states he is making competitive are those Republicans could usually count on as easy wins. The latest numbers from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution for the state of Georgia.

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (AJC)
Donald Trump 45%
Hillary Clinton 41%

This poll was done May 9-12 among likely voters.