Archive for December, 2007

Happy New Year!

Monday, December 31st, 2007

It’s definitely been an interesting year for me. Started out great despite the bad elections two months prior, took a nosedive around the end of March through the middle of June with a gaggle of events, then got better towards the end of the year.

I’ve made my resolutions for the new year and one of my public resolutions is that, even after five years of toiling around on this site (see retrospective if you missed it yesterday), I hope to continue to make this site as good as I can make it.

And remember, we are only three days away from the first votes in Iowa. So party it up tonight and know tomorrow morning, we will officially be in the Election year that could be one of the wildest we will ever see….

Yap about whatever you want and have a Happy New Year!

UPDATE (2:25pm): The year is already starting out well – Brian Billick has been fired by the Ravens….

IA: Hillary and Huckabee Still Lead

Monday, December 31st, 2007

It looks like the poll by Democrat John Zogby will be a tracking poll we get each day. Today’s results are not much more different than yesterday’s numbers showing Hillary and Mike Huckabee in the lead.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS
Hillary 30%
Barack Obama 26%
John Edwards 26%
Bill Richardson 5%
Joe Biden 5%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS
Mike Huckabee 29%
Mitt Romney 27%
John McCain 13%
Fred Thompson 8%
Rudy Giuliani 7%
Ron Paul 7%
Duncan Hunter 1%

This poll was done December 27-30 among 899 likely Democratic ad 876 likely Republican caucus goers.

NH: McCain/Romney Tied, Hillary Falling

Sunday, December 30th, 2007

The latest poll from American Research Group out of New Hampshire shows John McCain and Mitt Romney still tied, but both increase their percentage and have turned New Hampshire into a two-way race between them.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
John McCain 30%
Mitt Romney 30%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Rudy Giuliani 9%
Ron Paul 7%
Fred Thompson 3%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Alan Keyes 1%

The biggest loser in this poll is Rudy Giuliani, who saw his percentage drop from 16% to 9% in a week. Meanwhile, Hillary’s 14% lead she held in an ARG just last has been cut in half as both Barack Obama and John Edwards have seen a surge in support.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 31%
Barack Obama 27%
John Edwards 21%
Bill Richardson 5%
Joe Biden 3%
Dennis Kucinich 3%
Chris Dodd 1%
Mike Gravel 1%

This poll was done December 27-29 among 600 likely voters in each party.

Since I predicted that Hillary and Romney would win Iowa over a week ago (and I still stand by that prediction). I am going to predict right now, before a single vote is taken in Iowa, that John McCain and Hillary will win in New Hampshire. My feeling is Hillary will in Iowa, effectively ending the Democratic primary and therefore free up all the Independents to vote in the Republican primary for John McCain. This, of course, brings up the idiocy of allowing Independents to choose a Republican nominee, but that is a debate for another day….

Five Years Later….

Sunday, December 30th, 2007

It all started five long years ago on this day, December 30, 2002 when sitting at my computer at work waiting for the dismissal to go home for New Year’s Holiday that I set up a website on Blogger. I don;t know quite why, but I enjoyed reading the blogs around back during the 2002 election and had few people who I interacted with who enjoyed politics as much as me. I hadn’t even become involved yet in Republican politics yet in Howard County, MD (that would not come until late 2003). For months, the only people who would read my site were me, my non-Republican brother, my parents, and anyone else I could convince to look at it. In fact, that old blogger site is still available at Blogger for some reason. Eight months in, Dean Esmay of Dean’s World, a man I never met or have met offered to help move anyone who asked off of Blogger to Wordpress. I took him up on his offer and started davidwissing.com. It wasn’t until the middle of last year that I finally got hold of hedgehogreport.com Five years later, the site is up to 7650 posts and over 118,000 comments. So with that in mind and, while I rarely self promote this site (never advertised or begged for a link from anyone), you’ll have to pardon me while I take a look back at some highlights for this site over the past five years.

My first brush with notoriety that made me realize people actually read this site was back in August 2003 when I linked to a story that the comedian Gallagher was running for Governor in California during the Recall Election. The Gallagher website then linked this site and the number of hits in one day on this site skyrocketed and exceeded what I was normally getting in an entire month. Of course back then, just getting 100 visitors in one day was a big deal for me. Interestingly, I ended up getting an email directly from Gallagher himself offering me free tickets to one of his shows in Maryland simply because I linked his site.

My next brush with notoriety occurred in October 2004 when John Podheretz mentioned this website in a column in the New York Post. It was a passing reference about the polls I was compiling, but it did include the URL. Unfortunately I never got my hands on a paper copy….

During that 2004 election, I became obsessed with polling information and it became a staple of this site that exists to this day. My biggest peak in daily visitors occurred right before the 2004 election when I reached over 50,000 unique hits in a single day on the day before the election. This number was repeated a day later and the two days boosted me up to 12th on the TTLB Traffic Ecosystem, albeit for a short two days. The election ended and I fell way down right after that and I have not come close to that figure since. Those around here back then will remember the threads that reached over 500 comments….

My next brush with notoriety occurred in March 2005 when Hugh Hewitt included me in his new book BLOG. What was interesting about this is that I had no idea it was in there until I actually started reading the book and came across the mention of my site by pure accident while reading. Then there was a second mention later in the book. The mentions were brief, but seeing my name and website appear in a best-selling book was surprising to say the least. Later on, Michelle Malkin also included this site in her book UNHINGED, although I was aware of this prior to actually seeing it in her book. On a more local level, this site, along with some of the other local Howard County, MD websites, has been featured in The Baltimore Sun, The Baltimore Examiner, and The Howard County Times.

And finally, after 4 and a half months with this site, I finally got my first Instalanche in August of this year which came from this post about John Edwards’ mansion.

And now for my lowest point and what was my biggest kerfuffle with the local media. It occurred back in March 2005 when, in a fit of rage, called local radio broadcaster Chip Franklin an “Ass”. You can read the original post here, but it boiled down to what I had thought at the time was his backing out of a deal to show up at a meeting of the Howard County Republican Club. He caught wind of my post and let others know he was not too happy about it and then I ended up talking to him directly on the phone to clear things up. In the end, Chip Franklin ended up coming to the HCRC meeting and speaking. It was one of those posts where I typed before I thought things through. Of course, I am still convinced it was my original post that made him change his mind and show up as originally planned, but I haven’t convinced others of that yet…on a side note, Chip Franklin is no longer a radio host in Baltimore.

It is hard for me to pick a favorite post, so I will just say my favorite time on this site was the period during the 2006 election when I included many posts from things that happened during that election. They ranged from the simple post about the latest sign installation up to a full fledged Blogger Candidates Forum hosted by this site as well as other Howard County blogs on both sides of the political spectrum. It is hard to describe in detail, but some of those posts were the most enjoyable to me personally even if it went over the heads over many of my readers who were from out side Howard County.

But enough about me. What I love most about this site is that it has become something I enjoy doing everyday. I am not and probably will never be as big as the other major blogs that you hear about, but I don’t think I want to be. This is a hobby for me, not a job, and just is my little space to talk about something I enjoy – politics. Sure I have made a little money on the side, but it barely covers the cost of the sever company I use. I have a real job that pays me quite well and I have no expectation that this will ever be something that I can retire on. I do this site for the pure fun of it. Of course, the site has changed over time, and now mostly focuses on national politics, but I do like to include local politics, football picks, and once in a while, I might show a little of my personality.

What also makes this site great to put together every morning is the commenters. I am amazed at the quality and range of commenters I have attracted to this site. I don’t even know most of you other than what I read here or, in some cases, if you happen to email me on the side Commenters have included some elected officials on the local level , from Councilpeople to State Delegates and Senators and officials of the Maryland Governemnt as well as a visit early on from Elizabeth Edwards during the 2004 campaign. Once in a while, I have met some of you and become friends and even had relationships with people who I would probably otherwise never know. While I ultimately do this site for myself, I love everyday reading the comments, and sometimes responding, even when the comments have absolutely nothing to do with the original post. Anyway, that is my clumsy way of showing my appreciation for everyone who makes this site an enjoyable experience for me everyday.

And finally to those who come by and, while not leaving a comments, have bookmarked this site or linked this site in the past, another thank you. I have a respectable 1,000 unique visitors a day, so I know there are many of you out there who, while not commenting, after all these years find yourself coming here to get the latest poll information, or local news information, or (dare I say) football picks. I thank you as well.

Finally, the most often-asked question I get by email and in the occasional comment is – “Why is it called The Hedgehog Report“. Sorry. Someday I might reveal why, but for now that will remain a secret….

Oh, and don’t forget the occasional appearance by Calculus….

Alright, enough navel gazing..again, thanks to everyone and here’s to five more years….

IA: Two Polls Show It Is Still Close On Both Sides

Sunday, December 30th, 2007

Two more polls out this morning showing the race is still close on both sides and show different leaders in each party. First, the new numbers from Democrat John Zogby put Hillary ahead by 4% and Mike Huckabee ahead by 1%.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS
Hillary 31%
Barack Obama 27%
John Edwards 24%
Bill Richardson 5%
Joe Biden 5%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich <1%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS
Mike Huckabee 29%
Mitt Romney 28%
John McCain 11%
Fred Thompson 8%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
Ron Paul 8%
Duncan Hunter 1%

Zogby also says this:

Importantly, if you eliminate the potentially ‘unviable’ candidates and redistribute their supporters’ second choices, the result is: Clinton 35.8%, Obama 33.4%, Edwards 30.8%.

This poll was done December 26-29 among 934 likely Democratic and 867 likely Republicans caucus goers. And we also get a new poll from Mason-Dixon this morning showing Edwards and Romney in the lead.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS
John Edwards 24%
Hillary 23%
Barack Obama 22%
Bill Richardson 12%
Joe Biden 8%
Chris Dodd 2%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Mike Gravel <1%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS
Mitt Romney 27%
Mike Huckabee 23%
Fred Thompson 14%
John McCain 13%
Rudy Giuliani 5%
Ron Paul 5%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Alan Keyes <1%

And when the second-tier candidates are thrown out, Mason-Dixon estimates the following.

If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.

That is quite a difference from what Democrat John Zogby is showing. This poll was done December 26-28 among 400 likely voters in each party.

IA: Romney Surges Ahead of Huckabee/Hillary Lead Cut In Half

Saturday, December 29th, 2007

Ask and you shall receive. American Research Group, days after telling the world that Hillary had a 14% lead in Iowa, has come out with a new poll showing Hillary’s lead cut down to 7%.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS
Hillary 31%
John Edwards 24%
Barack Obama 24%
Bill Richardson 5%
Joe Biden 5%
Denis Kucinich 1%
Mike Gravel 0%

This still is the largest lead Hillary has in any public poll, but at least it is more in line with other public polls out there. Meanwhile, the Huckaboom and turing into a Huckawhimper (okay, that was bad).

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS
Mitt Romney 32%
Mike Huckabee 23%
John McCain 11%
Fred Thompson 7%
Ron Paul 6%
Rudy Giuliani 6%
Alan Keyes 2%
Duncan Hunter 2%

Huckabee did not lose any support and it was Romney that has surged from 21% to 32% in five days. This poll was done December 26-28 among 600 likely caucus goers in each party.

Still waiting for polls from other polling organizations that have been polling Iowa all along such as Selzer&Co., Newsweek, Mason-Dixon, Scott Rasmussen and Democrat John Zogby. We’ll see if they have the guts to release a last minute poll.

IA: Romney Moves Into Lead

Saturday, December 29th, 2007

Bob Novak is reporting that “A private corporate interest commissioned a phone bank survey of 15,000 Iowans who say they will attend Republican presidential caucuses Jan. 3.” This poll,. according to Novak, says Mitt Romney has moved back into the lead over Mike Huckabee. Here are the results of this poll, according to Novak.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS
Mitt Romney 30%
Mike Huckabee 26%
John McCain 12%
Rudy Giuliani 9%
Ron Paul 1%
Fred Thompson 1%

Novak doesn’t give the name of the company doing the poll or the dates of the poll, so hard to say much about the reliability of this poll. Interesting to note that McCain is in third place while Fred Thompson, who some people claim still has some chance at the nomination, is at 1%. Also, William Rehnquist will be resigning from the Supreme Court this week….

Also in Novak’s article was this nugget about Bob Dole.

Unexpected late intervention by Bob Dole in the Iowa Republican caucuses confirms that Mike Huckabee may have blundered by assailing President George W. Bush’s “arrogant bunker mentality” in international affairs.

“Why have you joined the ‘Bush bashers’?” Dole asked in a letter to Huckabee that he made public. Dole, until now neutral in the 2008 contest, called Huckabee’s critique of Bush policy in Foreign Affairs magazine a “perfect example of 20-20 hindsight.”

Hmmm….

They Don’t Even Hide It Anymore

Saturday, December 29th, 2007

The “mainstream media” and their liberal bias that is. I just laughed out loud this morning when I opened up MSNBC this morning and saw the headline for an article describing the ad war in Iowa between the contenders in each party. Here is a full screen shot (click for readable version) of the site this morning with the headline highlighted.

For simplicity, here is that headline blown up.

Now here is the article being linked. I read through this entire article and it looks to me as if both Edwards and McCain are comparing their records against their opponents, yet the Democrat is portrayed as “drawing a contrast” while the Republican is portrayed as “going negative”.

Get used to it folks, it will only get worse in the General Election….

2007 Week 17 NFL Picks

Saturday, December 29th, 2007

Before we get to this week, a look back at last week.

WINNERS
Pittsburgh beat St. Louis
Dallas beat Carolina
New York Giants beat Buffalo
Indianapolis beat Houston
Cincinnati beat Cleveland
Jacksonville beat Oakland
New England beat Miami
San Diego beat Denver
Arizona beat Atlanta
Tennessee beat New York Jets
Detroit beat Kansas City

LOSERS
Baltimore lost to Seattle (DAMNIT)
Minnesota lost to Washington (DAMNIT)
New Orleans lost to Philadelphia
Tampa Bay lost to San Francisco
Green Bay lost to Chicago

An 11-5 week keeps me in 6th place, one game behind fourth place, among the so-called ESPN experts.

Ron Jaworski 156-69
Mark Schlereth 160-80
Merrill Hoge 157-83
Chris Mortensen 151-89
Sean Salisbury 150-89
ME 150-90
Seth Wickersham 148-91
Mike Golic 143-96
Eric Allen 141-99

SO we finally get to the last week of this interminable NFL season. Without further ado, the final Hedgehog Report picks for the 2007 NFL season.

New England @ New York Giants
Seattle @ Atlanta
New Orleans @ Chicago
San Francisco @ Cleveland
Detroit @ Green Bay
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati @ Miami
Buffalo @ Philadelphia
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Dallas @ Washington
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Jacksonville @ Houston
Minnesota @ Denver
San Diego @ Oakland
St. Louis @ Arizona
Kansas City @ New York Jets

Go Dallas.

IA: New Research 2000 Poll

Friday, December 28th, 2007

I have a feeling we are going to be inundated with polls from Iowa in the next six days. Here is the latest from Research 2000 showing a three-way mess among democrats and a two-way battle among Republicans.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS
John Edwards 29%
Barack Obama 29%
Hillary 28%
Bill Richardson 7%
Joe Biden 3%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS
Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 27%
Fred Thompson 11%
Ron Paul 8%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
John McCain 8%
Duncan Hunter 1%

This poll was done December 26-27 among 500 likely caucus goers in each party.

Oh, and if American Research Group ever wants to be taken seriously again, they better come out with a new poll soon so that their previous poll results are forgotten. There has now been three polls that don’t come anywhere close to showing the 15% lead they claimed Hillary has in Iowa.