Archive for July, 2008

WA: Incumbents Lead Two US House Races

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Survey USA, who is seemed to sit out the month of July for the Presidential race, has two polls for US House races in Washington State. In District 2, Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding lead. In District 8, Republican Dave Reichert is winning in a district that voted for Democrats in the previous two Presidential elections.

US HOUSE – WASHINGTON STATE – CD2 (Survey USA)
Rick Larsen (D-inc) 58%
Rick Bart (R) 37%

US HOUSE – WASHINGTON STATE – CD8 (Survey USA)
Dave Reichert (R-inc) 50%
Darcy Burner (D) 44%

Kerry won District 2 and 8 with 51% of the vote in 2004. Gore won District 2 with 48% and District 8 with 49% of the vote in 2000. These polls were done July 27-29 among 507 likely voters in District 2 and 688 likely voters in District 8.

The Hedgehog Report Vice Presidential Selection Predicition Picks

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

The Hedgehog Report Vice Presidential Selection Prediction Contest is officially closed and there are 45 legitimate entries. An overwhelming plurality of you picked Tim Kaine for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for John McCain. Both candidates had double-digit leads. Here is the leaders contenders on each side.

REPUBLICANS
Mitt Romney 18
Tim Pawlenty 6
Tom Ridge 5
Sarah Palin 4
John Kasich 3
Charlie Crist 2
7 others 1
DEMOCRATS
Tim Kaine 20
Hillary 7
Evan Bayh 5
Joe Biden 3
Sam Nunn 2
Kathleen Sebelius 2
6 others 1

Averaging out the selection date of all the picks, Barack Obama will pick his VP nominee on August 14th and John McCain will select his on August 23rd. Now we wait….

They Make It So Easy

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Bill Clinton just sent out an email begging people to donate money to Hillary by pledging $5 for the chance to win a dinner with Hillary. I don;t why, but this entire passage made me chuckle out loud.

During the campaign, Hillary and I didn’t have the chance to eat together much because we were usually on the trail in different states. Now that the campaign’s over, I’m glad we can share more meals again.

Of all the people I’ve had the privilege to break bread with, the person I most enjoy is still Hillary

I’m sorry, but who on earth believes that crap? The next thing you know, John Edwards will be telling us…oh never mind…way too easy….

McCain Regains Footing In Montana

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

After falling behind a month ago, John McCain has regain the three electoral votes from Montana in the latest poll from Scott Rasmussen as he is now tied with Obama.

PRESIDENT – MONTANA (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 47%
Barack Obama (D) 47%

For some reason, Rasmussen polled 500 likely voters for this race when he polled 700 for the gubernatorial race one post down. Not sure why. In Kentucky, Obama closed the gap slightly, but still trails by double digits.

PRESIDENT – KENTUCKY (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D) 39%

McCain led by 16% last month. Finally in Texas, McCain maintains a high single-digit lead.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 52%
Barack Obama (D) 44%

The KY poll was done July 29th and the TX poll was done July 30th, both among 500 likely voters. Moving away from Rasmussen, we have a new poll from California from Public Policy Institute of California.

PRESIDENT – CALIFORNIA (PPIC)
Barack Obama (D) 50%
John McCain (R) 35%

This poll was done July 8-22 among 1952 registered voters. That is all for now….

Incumbents Leads In KY and MT

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

More non-Presidential polls from Rasmussen earlier for the states of Montana and Kentucky. In both states, the sitting incumbents holds double-digit leads.

US SENATE – KENTUCKY (Rasmussen)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 52%
Bruce Lunsford (D) 42%

GOVERNOR – MONTANA (Rasmussen)
Brad Schweitzer (D-inc) 59%
Roy Brown (R) 35%

Quite a turnaround for McConnell, who trailed Lunsford by 5% just two months ago. Now he leads by double digits. Both these polls were done July 29th among 500 likely voters in Kentucky and 700 likely voters in Montana. I didn’t even know there were 700 people in Montana….

AK: Begich Leads All GOP Candidates By Double Digits

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Thanks to the shenanigans of Ted Stevens, the Republicans might as well kiss the US Senate seat in Alaska goodbye. A new poll from Rasmusen shows Stevens now down by double digits while other Republicans who might be able to take down Stevens in a primary are doing even worse.

US SENATE – ALASKA (Rasmussen)
Mark Begich (D) 50%
Ted Stevens (R-inc) 37%

Mark Begich (D) 50%
David Cuddy (R) 35%

Mark Begich (D) 55%
Vic Vickers (R) 22%

This poll was done June 30th among 500 likely voters. If Stevens had any honor or shame whatsoever, he would announce his intention to not seek re-election and let someone else get the nomination to give his party a half fighting chance to keep this seat. But I am not holding my breath….

Rasmussen’s email today says we will be getting polls from Montana, Kentucky and Texas later today.

Obama Leads in FL, OH, PA

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Quinnipiac University is out with a trio of swing polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Here are the results.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac University)
Barack Obama (D) 46%
John McCain (R) 44%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Quinnipiac University)
Barack Obama (D) 46%
John McCain (R) 44%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac University)
Barack Obama (D) 49%
John McCain (R) 42%

Like the polls from MN, CO, WI, and MI last week, all three results represent a gain for McCain. The polls were done between July 23-29 among 1,248 likely Florida voters, 1,229 likely Ohio voters and 1,317 likely Pennsylvania voters.

By the way, don’t forget that today is the last day to enter The Hedgehog Report Vice Presidential Selection Prediction Contest. If you haven’t put in your guess, go there now….

The Hedgehog Report Vice Presidential Selection Prediction Contest

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

BUMPED TO TOP

Okay, before either candidate jumps the gun, I figure it is about time to set up The Hedgehog Report Vice Presidential Selection Prediction Contest. For this contest, I want you to give four pieces of information. You will choose whom you think Barack Obama will choose as his vice presidential ticket mate along with the date he will make the selection followed by whom you think John McCain will choose as his VP ticket mate along the date you think he will make the choice public.

For instance, your prediction should read as follows:

Barack Obama
Joe Lieberman
August 18th

John McCain
Chuck Hagel
August 30th

Winner will be the one who gets the most items correct with the tiebreaker being the actual running mates. There can be a tie.

In this thread, please only enter your prediction. There will be plenty of other places to argue, debate, criticize, and whine about vice presidential choices.

I will keep this contest open until July 31st at 7:00pm and will periodically link to this post again as the days go by.

Good luck!

WCI Going Bankrupt

Wednesday, July 30th, 2008

If the Plaza Tower is not already dead, here is another nail for the coffin. From News-Press.com in Fort Myers, Florida.

Bankruptcy protection is all but inevitable for WCI Communities Inc., analysts said Tuesday after the company reported it has defaulted on debt agreements and has lost more than $184 million this year.
….
The company faces a midnight Monday deadline to exchange $125 million in debt — which it has said it can’t pay — for new debt.

The company hoped debt holders would take the exchange because the new debt pays a higher rate and grants the right to buy shares of company stock for next to nothing — one year from now.

However, the bank defaults likely will derail that, said Vicki Bryan, senior high yield analyst at Gimme Credit, an independent research service on corporate bonds.

The banks would have to grant a waiver on the debt agreements before the note exchange could proceed.

“If the banks don’t play ball, there goes the exchange deal,” Bryan said. “Their only option then is Chapter 11.”

Now a bankruptcy in itself is not a death knell for a company. THe company I have worked with for the past ten years actually had to file for bankruptcy protection seven years ago and it actually did not impact me in anyway whatsoever personally. I am still with the same company and our office is still thriving as it was before the bankruptcy and managed to still serve our clients without much impact. In fact, within a couple years after coming out of bankruptcy, the company itself was back up and running on all cylinders and probably ended up better off after bankruptcy protection. Obviously not knowing th edetails, this could be an entirely different situation.

For now, we will be stuck with the vacant lot in Downtown Columbia for at least the near future….

McCain’s Pathetic New Ad

Wednesday, July 30th, 2008

I can’t believe the McCain campaign actually thought this ad was a good idea.

Now the McCain campaign has been hit or miss with many of their ads this year. This one is borderline pathetic and I can’t believe McCain was actually willing to put his “I approve this message” at the end. I actually cringed when I saw this the first time. I guess I should at least be happy they found a new person for the voice-over for the ads….