I just got my call  from Zogby

McCain is surging as Obama plunges.  Its drinking a nice big glass of water

It clears your head and you vote for McCain.  America is waking up

Well its a little late to be tackling this subject.  Frankly most of the discussion here at Hedgehog for the last five weeks has been on Partisan distribution in polls.  Strangely many of the tracking polls and a few National polls have been coming around to the conservative viewpoint here.  That is, of course, that come election the partisan distribution will be somewhere between +1 to +4 D.  A recent battleground poll had the generic party congressional advantage at +4 and while that’s slightly difference then party ID there usually is a rough relationship between the two. 

Now I  am looking at the % of Democrats who will pull the switch for Obama on election day or actually before election day as the case may be.   To me there is three points to ponder here.  1st there are some democrats lost to Obama from day one.  If you were a democrat for voted for Bush in 2004 obama & Clinton probably did not float your boat in 2008. Then the PUMA clinton voters & then frankly some Bradley effect voters.  So here is the Kerry breakdown from 2004 & then here is what Obama is doing in some polls in 2008

Kerry  2004         State     Obama in polls 2008

90 Kerry  9 Bush     OH            83 Obama   10 McCain

93 Kerry   7 Bush    CO             89 Obama    10 McCain

85 Kerry  15 Bush    PA            91 Obama    6 McCain

92  Kerry   8  Bush    VA           93 Obama   6  McCain

85 Kerry   14 Bush    FL           86 Obama   9 McCain

So where are all the disgruntled bitter -rural democrats?  Where are the PUMA’s?  Where is the Bradley effect?  Where are all the older Jewish democrats in FL voting for McCain?  I only took selective polling data as many polls do not breakdown partisan breakdown unless you go to the website or have premium services.  Yet in many ways Obama is matching Kerry and yet polling (28% of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain last month) is not showing it.  Where are all these Racist people that Murtha is worried about in PA?  

Let’s just cover a little ground here.  I suggested , did others, that the indies and undecideds would start edging towards McCain and they are.  I suggested,  as did others, that the partisan ID gap would narrow and it has.  Will the final move that the pollsters pick will be the DEMOCRATIC gap and that Obama will get fewer democratic votes % wise then Kerry did.  Well right now I think we are two for two.  Come election day we will be 3 for 3.

Strategic Vision at it +5 obama a day after Mason Dixon at it +4.  Between the undecides, PUMA, and Bradley effect  it looks good for McCain in PA in my opinion. 

RAS tracking has it a +4 Nationally for Obama.  The indies and undecides will determine this election.  I say McCain by 2.

I appreciate the hat tip on this battleground poll

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/10/27/daily80.html

Its 48-45 For Obama over McCain plus a tie in battleground states.   MOE and moving on

To me its clear MSM bias.  If McCain or certainly  if Palin was running for re-election and  running for VP at the same time.  They would be all over it.  Yet Joe Biden is doing it without hardly any publicity

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ikXdkhGpxM9rLnLYzrmagNZhJMIAD945E2BG0

What’s insulting to the “DuPont ” state is that Biden is just laughing at the people of Delaware.  What a joke.  Unlike Lieberman in 2000 Biden’s state has a nice democratic governor who would do his bidding.  In addition his son , the state AG, is a natural successor who is not only popular but is serving a short tour in Iraq.  In addition the GOP nominee is not exactly a heavyweight so why not resign Joe.  Show a little faith in the leader. 

Still waiting on more tracking polls.  Even with a +6  Party ID edge RAS is only at 4 points so its stil MOE folks.  We see more democratic states during more Bluer then blue so its tight in the battleground states. 

Yep that’s right there will be no beer sales at the Obamaton cryfest on Election.  Here are the details

 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-obama-rally-30-oct30,0,886537.story

Officially there will be 65,000 tickets handed out, but the  invite is out to whoever can get to the park.  If 500K show up and there are 265 port a potties it could get rough.  I understand that Willie Nelson and his bus will be in town plus taco bell is setting up booths for .49 cent bean burritos with Pepsi for only a .25.  Could give new meaning to phrase windy city.

 Okay I am not out here

So what to make of all this early vote business.  There are long lines of voters all over the country.  How about Nevada and its big turnout that seems to favor democrats, but say what that’s lots of older democratic and tons of indies voting too.  Here’s a poll of those who have voted

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTBjYzhiMmQ4NzQ1MGVjZjI5NGY2NDk2YTk2NTg0MDE=

yes the early vote per this exit poll with a 20% democratic edge is nearly tied.  So what gives?  How about Florida

http://www.poligazette.com/2008/10/30/early-voting-mccain-the-advantage/

Between the absentee voting and early voting McCain seems to have a slight edge in polling?  Take that with a grain of salt, but who is sleeping easy and who has a worried mind.  So are undecided voters really McCain voters?  Is there an extra 6 or 7 percent for McCain out there plus some Bradley effect too?  Well here’s a classic country song nearly as old as McCain that describes Obama’s situation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMyw60aqFGY

Yes  Big John has an ace in the hole.  Its the automatic flipping feature on these diebold machines.  I have my button on my cell phone that flips votes when I do my poll watcher duties.   

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Voting-Machines-Flipping-Votes-Many/story.aspx?guid=%7B4019D5D9-4903-4CBE-A854-94B9569CE11C%7D

I might add that to offset the Diebold affect I saw a youngster at the polls last week who looked like Micha from that TV show whatever its called Heroes.  Wassup? Here’s a good machine in action

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q9NSVUu8nk