This will begin a series of posts looking back at the 2008 election results in Howard County looking at trends and other assorted numbers that may give some information about future elections. One thing about elections is that they can give a glimpse of the true ideological make up of a district even more than the actual partisan breakdown of the registered voters can. A glaring example of this is in the south where numerous states have majority Democratic party registration but regularly vote Republican in federal elections. In other words, the partisan breakdown of the voters has absolutely no bearing on how the voters think and vote.
With that in mind, this first post will look at the breakdown by Legislative District. I took the results from the Howard County Board of Elections and broke them out by Legilsative District.
| DISTRICT |
Obama |
McCain |
| 9A |
47.85% |
50.18% |
| 12A |
52.93% |
44.71% |
| 12B |
72.98% |
25.30% |
| 13 |
64.95% |
33.27% |
Now right off the bat, the numbers in District 12A are meaning less in the grand scheme of things since most of this district is located in another county, so the numbers strictly from Howard County really don’t give any indication for this district as a whole. And really no surprise in Districts 12B and 13 considering they include all of Columbia.
The numbers that surprise me the most and shows the gains Democrats making in the county are the numbers in District 9A. Now we can look at these numbers in two ways. For McCain to only get barely over 50% in the district where Republicans are the strongest in Howard County shows Democrats may be looking to make this a major battleground next year. Just two years ago, Governor Ehrlich won this district with 58% over Governor O’Malley. Now some of this can be attributed to the Obama wave across the county, which saw Obama getting nearly 60% of the vote, compared to the razor thin margin (50%-49%) O’Malley won Howard County two years ago. Of course, one other way to look at it is that the shift to Obama in this district underperformed the countywide shift to Obama from O’Malley by 2%. Either way, this district is going to be a lot more competitive next year than it was two years ago and I expect Democrats to field two candidates this time around to take on Gail Bates and Warren Miller.
One caveat to these numbers is the voters in each who voted by absentee ballot ro by provisional ballot are not included. for some inexplicable reason, the Howard County Board of Election refuses to break down these voters by their respective district and include them among the voters for each precinct. In addition, these results are still listed as “unofficial”, which is absolutely mind-boggling. How is a technologically advanced county as this one incapable of posting the official results of this election nearly two months after the election has been completed. What on earth is taking them this long? Just another complaint in a long string of complaints I have about the complete inefficiency of the Howard County Board of Elections.
Anyway, later this week and next week, I will be posting a breakdown of the 2008 election by County Council district to see how each district voted and what it possible means for the future races at this level.