Fresh off Tuesday’s Special Election in Kentucky where Democrats managed to pick off a previously held Republican State Senate seat, we have another State Special Election tonight in Louisiana.
There are really two ways to look at this Special Election tonight in Louisiana to replace outgoing Democratic State Senator Reggie Dupre. As anyone who has followed politics over the past few years, you know Louisiana has what is commonly referred to as jungle primaries where all candidates, regardless of party, run in a primary election which is followed by a runoff election among the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation. Earlier this month, the Special Election primary in Louisiana saw the Republican candidate, Bob Callais, gain a plurality of the votes against two Democrats. But when combined, the Democrats managed to get a total of 62% of the vote.
| 2009 STATE SENATE 20 – PRIMARY |
| PARISH |
Callais (R) |
Chabert (D) |
Baldone (D) |
| Lafourche |
2,245 |
1,954 |
1,359 |
| Terrebonne |
2,810 |
2,405 |
2,598 |
| Total |
5,055 |
4,359 |
3,957 |
| % |
38% |
33% |
30% |
Now one way to look at this election and what may happen tonight is that the two Democratic candidates combined garnered a clear majority of the vote and the Democratic candidate should cruise to a victory tonight. The other way to look at this election is to look at what happen in the 2008 presidential election. This district covers portions of two parishes in Louisiana which saw the following results (only portion of parish in District 20 included).
| 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION |
| PARISH |
Votes |
McCain (R) |
Obama (D) |
| Lafourche |
21,388 |
16,010 |
4,647 |
| Terrebonne |
26,132 |
17,401 |
8,095 |
| Total |
47,520 |
33,411 |
12,742 |
| % |
. |
70% |
27% |
So clearly this district has Republican leanings when it comes to Presidential races. So what will that mean tonight. Can Bob Caillas overcome the overwhelming Democratic registration edge as well as gain enough votes from the defeated Democratic primary challenger to reach 50%? Or will we see a repeat of Tuesday where the voters stick with the Democrat despite their Republican leanings in the Presidential race?
Polls close at 9pm.
