PREZ: Huckabee Surges Ahead
Scott Rasmussen has new primary numbers out in the 2012 Presidential race on the Republican side and it shows Mike Huckabee moving ahead.
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Mike Huckabee 29%
Mitt Romney 24%
Sarah Palin 18%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
This poll was done October 15th among 750 likely voters. On a side note, for you Newt Gingrich fans, he just endorsed the Republican candidate in the special election for the 23rd Congressional District in New York.
second first of the day. None of these top three will be nominated.
#1 Hugh,
In my opinion, you are correct, sir.
second second of the day. Palin will be the nominee.
make that first third, thanks Marv
Go Huckabee!
“On a side note, for you Newt Gingrich fans, he just endorsed the Republican candidate in the special election for the 23rd Congressional District in New York.”
Newt is out
Obama falls in Gallup:
52(-1)/42(+2)
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Eph,
Good afternoon, sir. Whom do your sources say has the actual inside track to the Republican nomination? My sources are unreachable today.
If you look at the crosstabs, Palin is winning the 18-39 group handily but getting her clock cleaned among the older voters.
Not sure the nomination is something that will be prized by anyone. Incumbent president backed totally by the MSM who can raise a billion bucks.
Better to go in 2016.
10. Phil,
why not 2024?
8. Marv,
My sources tell me that the wild card is Mike Pence of Indiana, but keep that between us please.
Check out Drudge…it seems that he’s ready to go negative on Huckabee with the tone of his post.
#12 Eph,
Roger that, Eph. When I was in the USAF, I held to Top Secret (NoForn) Clearance, so I know how to keep a secret.
‘Choice,’ abortion’s accomplice, unmasked as a killer in new pro-life website
By admin on October 16, 2009 9:08 AM | No Comments
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MEDIA ADVISORY, Oct. 15, 2009/Christian Newswire -
“A woman’s right to choose,” introduced in the mid 70’s, succeeded brilliantly in distracting attention from the seriousness of abortion by focusing instead on the decision making process. The result being that the seeming fairness of the decision making process worked to legitimize its outcome. The late Dr. James Kennedy, founder of Coral Ridge Ministries, defined the issue, saying, “They have long tried to skirt the gruesome and sinful nature of abortion-for-convenience by making the word ‘choice’ stand for far more than its innocent-appearing use implies.”
Until now, the malicious and distracting influence of “choice” has gone unchallenged and abortion is never discussed apart from its legitimizing influence. Clearly damaging the image of “choice” would help pro-life move the discussion to abortion itself. Fortunately, over the years, “choice” has become vulnerable to criticism due to its close relationship with abortion. Choice actually facilitates abortion and makes it permissible with the phrase “freedom of choice.” By doing this, “choice” has become an accomplice to the abortions….
The ChoiceKills effort is introduced with a website, Choicekills.com. It is directed at young women. “Judy, the talking embryo” greets them with the tragic reality of her dangerous existence and asks for their help. Typical opinions of young women who have been enticed to abort their babies portray a variety of regrets stemming from the deceiving image that Choice had given them.
Website visitors are encouraged to keep other young women from falling prey to the seduction of “choice” and know for sure that “freedom of choice” is far from free. Inexpensive bumper stickers and T- shirts are offered as a way to carry the life-saving message to their community. Young men are encouraged to assist their female friends in the effort.
The ChoiceKills project was originated to serve the goal of preventing abortions by providing a method that could unite pro-life organizations with an effective response to “Choice”, killer of millions.
Noticed that a new Fox News poll was out yesterday with lots of bad news for Obama. Waited for it to be highlighted on the Bret Bair 6 o’clock show as all other Fox polls usually are. But I heard nothing, unless I missed it. Do you think this is a result of the heat the White House is putting on them? Sure hope not.
Tommy_Boy,
What about Drudge?
I still think Palin or Huckabee is only the nominee if Obama looks unstoppable in 2012. If he’s looking weak, I expect we’ll have stronger candidates coming out of the woodwork.
I’m not sure those people will come from the House, though. Only once ever has a sitting House member been elected president.
If Obama is weak in 2012, look for one of the governors to come on strong – Perry, Daniels, Rell etc. – who would have completed 6 years in their states.
If Obama is re-elected in 2012, there should be a strong Rep bench for 2016 from the governors’ ranks, especially from the ranks of those elected in 2010.
19. Rell? are you joking???
I like Thune. My guess is he won’t run until 2016. He’d have an easier time. That is, if we’re still having elections then. LOL
Palin will bEAT hUCK
http://www.prozac.com
HOPE … WITH A SIDE ORDER OF CHANGE:
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2009/10/disgusting-obama-disgusted-with-israel.html
Thorazine. It deals with the delusions better.
#19–
I still think Jindal has his eyes on the prize. Rell not only wouldn’t win the nomination, but I don’t get the sense that she has those ambitions. (If she did, I think she would’ve tried to pick off Dodd this year.) I wonder whether Perry and Daniels are too close to Bush to catch fire.
From some of the stuff I knew about Huntsman, I liked him (but now that he’s joined the Evil Empire, he’s dead to me).
I’d hate for us to lose in 2012 against a bad incumbent because we put forward a weak nominee (see, for example, the John Kerry Mistake).
I would vote for the Republican in NY-23 too. A third conservative party will result in Dems getting elected. Republicans need to win everywhere in order to control the legislature. So a RINO there gives power to say, Mike Pence. A vote for the conservative in NY23 is a vote to keep Pelosi in charge. Conservatives need to grow up, as Barry said. The GOP is the conservative movement’s historic home. Taking over the GOP is the answer, not a sitting out or forming a third party. So the rule governing your vote is simple. Vote for the conservative candidate in the GOP primary, and the GOP candidate in the general election. No exceptions. Even if it is Snowe or Specter or Crist.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_lawrence_kudlow/storm_clouds_gather_as_dow_hits_10_000
I saw that. Even Wall Street constant cheerleader Kudlow is starting to get it.
The news Kudlow puts out in that article is deeply sobering, Phil.
27…we went over this in detail yesterday. The candidate running with the R next to the name is NOT a RINO moderate…rather just is a flaming liberal. Most RINOs look conservative by comparision. If there was EVER a race to go third party, this IS IT. And the conservative does have a shot here. Newt has disappointed me several times in the past, and I am finally done with him.
Jindal has told GOP leaders in congress to work with Obama. He’s out.
This is Palin’s spot if she wants it, that’s why she keeps earning more and is starting a second group. She aims to remake the GOP and take it back from Mccain.
Is this the same Newt that wanted to do a healthcare deal with Hillary/ Do you remember the ads they ran together at the beginning of this year?
He is a big disappointent, as is the NY R party for going with a leftist candidate.
If Hoffman can pull ahead, then, yes, vote for him. If not, then hold your collective noses, NY23 voters, and vote for Dede. Then next year, have Hoffman primary her and take the seat. We can’t afford to embolden the Dems with any padding on their congressional majority.
Newt has been a disappointment ever since his second term as Speaker, Tina. His love of the limelight and gross misreaidng of the American public did more to consolidate power in Clinton’s hands than anyone could have imagined at the time. There’s a reason Sam Rayburn and Tip O’Neill never endangered their majorities: They didn’t let themselves become lightning rods and pick fights they couldn’t win with opposing Presidents.
31. Yeah I disagree. If it were Tom Hayden running with an R next to his name for Congress, I would vote for him. The only caveat that I can think of is this… if I REALLY thought that the Conservative Party candidate was going to win or have a real chance.. then maybe.
If Hoffman seriously had a chance, then I’d be contributing to him today, Bay. Unfortunately running a distant third in a three-way race is not the way to prove that. Bernie Sanders he is not.
I agree wtih that, Wes. I question his cnservative beliefs especially when he is running ads with Hillary about health care. I also do not think he is smart since the Clintunes destroyed him in 1994, and he failed to fight back.
John Thune will be the next GOP nominee for POTUS.
I’m convinced Thune waits until 2016. If he really wants to be President, he needs to wait until Obama can’t run again. That’s assuming Barry hasn’t found away around the 22nd Amendment.
I’ll always be eternally grateful to Thune for picking himself up after having the senate seat stolen from him in 2002 and then taking down Daschle during the next cycle.
38 – Even if Hoffman can’t win, that is NO reason to vote for Dede the Daily Kos’s favorite Republican. If Dede were to win, the National GOP will keep nominating more limp-wristed RINOcrats who lean ever further to the left. By defeating the RINOcrat who may actually lean more to the right than the DEM candidate, it sends the message that these kind of Republicans can not win and should not be nominated.
Besides if the DEM wins, then it clears the way for a real conservative, like Hoffman, to be the candidate to run in a two-way race in 2010.
CA job losses worsened in September
Rate 12.2
Losses 39k.
Hey, that’s a pretty good month for California.
I guess I’m in the minority here on Newt…
I thought he was a fairly strong, constant voice this past summer relative to energy, spending, etc…
Phil, Schwarznkennedy is touting that the rate went down from 12.3 in august.
LOL
On a side note, for you Newt Gingrich fans, he just endorsed the Republican candidate in the special election for the 23rd Congressional District in New York.
Newt is out”
Really? We have a new suicidal litmus test? If a Republican supports the Republican candidate he is out because said Republican candidate is not “conservative enough”?
This kind of asinine thinking won’t get us very far. Right now the big picture we need to stop the Obama trainwreck on our economy and our way of life and our security. If that takes swallowing some RINOs to accomplish it so be it. Hoffman is a spoiler and is not going to win. The fact Newt knows that does not disqualify him for a damm thing.
41. http://www.prozac.com !!!
A vote for Speaker Boehner is a vote for Speaker Boehner. That is enough of a “litmus” test for me.
Tina,
I heard that Arnuld is at 27% these days
But do you vote for Rs, who will support that same agenda?
“Besides if the DEM wins, then it clears the way for a real conservative, like Hoffman, to be the candidate to run in a two-way race in 2010.”
THis is wishful thinking. Once you get in you have a lot of advantages of incumbency and it takes $$$ to unseat you. Hoffman is free to run against Dede in 2 years if its that easy. Meanwhile, everyone who will caucus with Republicans and deny Nancy Pelosi another vote is fine with me.
MSNBC…
Touting Reid versus Pelosi on HC…
BREAKING: Scozzafava Possibly Mulling Party Switch
Posted by Erick Erickson (Profile)
Friday, October 16th at 1:39PM EDT
7 Comments
As I said in my previous post, the Democrat in NY-23 has a greater likelihood of voting with the GOP than Dede Scozzafava.
Now The Weekly Standard is reporting that when asked about switching to the Democrats upon election, the Scozzafava campaign was less than reassuring for the GOP.
Will Dede Scozzafava, the liberal Republican running in the November 3 special election for Army Secretary John McHugh’s open upstate New York seat, stay in the Republican party in the (unlikely) event that she wins? Would she run in 2010 as a Republican—facing what would likely be a tough primary? Or would she pull as Specter?
Her spokesman Matthew Burns won’t say. Asked via email if Scozzafava would commit to running in a Republican primary in 2010, Burns replied last night, “Dede is focused on the election that is Nov. 3.”
He wrote that Scozzafava currently “is a vote for Rep. Boehner” to be speaker of the House.
Yes, he is at 19 to 27 percent in the last two polls, pretty much would have been recalled, if time was not running out of him. He has been a disaster.
BTW – check out his photos of his chest at drudge the other day, and you can seek how serious the steroids abuse was.
Eph,
I’ve been on Prozac for fifteen years. Got anything stronger?
“I’ll always be eternally grateful to Thune for picking himself up after having the senate seat stolen from him in 2002 and then taking down Daschle during the next cycle”
At the time I was furious Thune let himself be ripped off by the 2 am Indian reservation vote count where he lost by 500 votes. But it worked out ok. Now if we could only get rid of Johnson….
The general election is too late for litmus/ideology tests. You vote Republican, period. The PRIMARY is where you take the GOP right, if you can. And maybe, you know, you can’t. Them’s the breaks.
“He wrote that Scozzafava currently “is a vote for Rep. Boehner” to be speaker of the House.”
Good…Rep Boehner needs the vote. She can switch after voting.
#16 bio mom
I sent the following e-mail to Fox News Special Report with Bret Baier:
(”Hi Bret,
I was looking forward to a segment last night (the 15th) on the recent Fox News poll of Obama’s job approval. You didn’t have one, so are you going to cover it tonight (the 16th)? I hope so. Thank you.”)
Here was the reply:
(”We will. Thanks.
Bret Baier
Anchor, “Special Report with Bret Baier”
Fox News Channel”)
57 boooze
61. Great stuff!
“As I said in my previous post, the Democrat in NY-23 has a greater likelihood of voting with the GOP than Dede Scozzafava.”
You think a Democrat will actually vote for Boehner? It won’t happen. And even a “liberal” Republican like Dede will vote for Boehner. That’s the way the system works. The Blue Dogs are rolling over right now for Pelosi. You need a serious reality check.
I tried that election night. The damned stuff keeps wearing off.
If Crist were to drop out and run for Governor again, what would ahppen on the FL Dem side. right now they have no one, but would they bring in a heavy hitter against Rubio? Rubio as a GOP Senator and true cosnervative would be huge for the Right.
Tinareports
VA MCDonnell +9
Corzine +2
Little birdy…
At this point, I don’t think Florida Democrats have any heavy hitters in the wings.
55. Eph, we need to let her go, she is pathetic. Like 2000 when the RNC gave Jim Jeffords huge $$$ for re-election, only to have him switch and deliver the Senate to the DEMS.
We have to cut our losses and hope Hoffman wins, if not run a stronger candidate in 2010.
Daggett is a bastard, he is allowing Corzine to pull ahead and win the perception war.
69. Hoffman or nothing
Eph,if hoffman could convince Palin to come to the NY-23 would it help or hurt?
#72. Hurt.
#67, Tina
Which poll?
How about this for a dream ticket since I believe the 2012 race will come down to a few states like Ohio,Michigan and Pa. How about this dream ticket? Sarah Palin / John Kasich in 2012?
Brandon Thanks. Rudy must be behind DeDe along with Pataki.
Tina I just heard form a NYC friend who lives in the Jersey suburbs, the feeling is that Daggett numbers are way inflated and Corzine cannot break 40% which is a death knell for an incumbent.
Jerry it will have to be a conservative. We saw 10 Million conservatives not even vote in 2008 because of McCain, we cannot have that again or we will get crushed down ballot in 2012.
Here we are in the middle of a Socialist takeover, and jackass McCain wants to pardon a boxer.
It is time to primary this fool out of his AZ Senate Seat. I respect his Military service, but this is pathetic.
Brandon, Bloomberg will endorse Corzine. Bet on it.
“Eph,if hoffman could convince Palin to come to the NY-23 would it help or hurt?”
Hurt, big time. Like NJ too.
retail sales update- Today’s coupons
$5 off $20.00 or more from dollar general(wow)
$10 off $50.00 or more from office depot
10% off entire purchase from Petco
Plus this week only the Domino’s special is $8.99 for any pizza, any size any toppings. Wow and Wow. A large pizza with any toppings for $8.99 delivered.
This is a great time to spend money.
Pizza Hut coupon. I just saw it. $5 off any $15 dollar purchase. Carryout or delivery. I tell it Obama has made it a great time to spend money. retail sales are so weak every thing is on special.
The sad thing is if you are among the 10% unemployed its tough. I know folks who are looking for work. Its a bad time to look for jobs. So to those 90% working enjoy all the retail deals.
For the 10% looking for jobs remember Obama.
78. Our only hope is if JD Hayworth primaries him.
rdel,
I’ll take PetCo please
Its $5.99 here for the large 1 topping Dominos pizza rdelbov.
david, no official polls….just a little birdy’s #s.
Murdoch to Obama: Just Keep Whining
These whiny babies on the left just never learn. They’ve been pissing and moaning about Rush Limbaugh for 20 years and the guy is more popular than ever, despite the endless smear campaigns waged by the angry left and the media swine who promulgate their lies.
So it come as little surprise that due to the White House jihad against Fox News their ratings are better than ever.
News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch said on Friday that White House criticism of commentators on his Fox News television channel had served to “tremendously” increase their ratings.
“There were some strong remarks coming out of the White House about one or two of the commentators on Fox News,” Murdoch told the annual meeting of News Corp. shareholders here.
“And all I can tell you is that it’s tremendously increased their ratings,” he said.
Murdoch’s remarks came after White House Communications Director Anita Dunn told The New York Times earlier this week that Fox News was “undertaking a war against Barack Obama and the White House.”
What pisses me off is that the Right is having a Civil war at the Wrong time. This is why Reagan was the Best Prez we ever had. He knew how unite both Conservatives and moderates and convince them that the real enemy was the Democrats.
We all need to fight socialism, not each other.
84. Tina, we have a 10% sales tax in my county. That Pizza is $6.60 here.
I excluded sales taxes, and delivery fees, so it would probably be a birt higher than what Rdelbov originally indicated.
The last NJ debate is tonight if anyone cares.
Brandon, has Rudy campaigned for Christie?
#91. I know he’s had appearances, but to what extent I don’t know. That’s more of a North Jersey thing.
Corzine is an overwhelming favorite to win now on Intrade: 60%
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=new+jersey
Rasmussen isn’t going to be the lone wolf out there showing Christie with a 4-point lead. The left would have a field day if Rasmussen misses this one. We need a good showing from him.
Hoffman is a pipe dream. He has 23%. Emotions don’t win elections.
This is the biggest obstacle facing Christie: that it’s a toss-up with Corzine winning only around 70% of black voters.
An X-Factor for Corzine?
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/x-factor-for-corzine.html
#95. If Democrats always “underpoll” with blacks, shouldn’t their topline results at the polls on election day always be higher than what pre-election polls show? That doesn’t happen. Which means that they must be overpolling with white voters as well.
93. Tommy boy the Same Intrade who had Chicago winning the Olympics at 80% a day before the vote??
Tommy, Rothenberg says the whole election comes down to Daggett. Corzine cannot win if Daggett gets less than 12% of the vote.
94. I agree, but I want Hoffman to win. DeDe got a $ million plus today from the RNC, she will win now.
#87 What pisses me off is that the elites in the Republican Party take their voters for granted. They lost because they were big government spenders and did not stand up to the offensive of the left. I see absolutely no evidence of that changing other than a mostly unified defense against Obama, but Obama went so far left, he made that easy for the R’s to protest.
I am absolutely livid at how they treated Palin. Love her or hate her, they left her to fend for herself. Rush and the Rams, silence. The special election in NY, she might not even stay out the term as a R. I’m sick of government growing bigger. Voting R didn’t change squat and the R’s are a big reason Obama got elected since they botched up things so bad and didn’t fight back against the media onslaught. The only reason that R’s keep losing to 3rd party candidates is that there is no reason to vote for them other than they are not Dems. Instead of blaming the voter, blame the party. We keep sending them the message, they keep ignoring it. Voting 3rd party isn’t wasting a vote, it’s a long term investment into reshaping the Republican party. Its not my fault the Republican Party is too stupid to get the point. Field better candidates and you might win.
D, I agree. If you had a conservative 3rd party, it would force so called DEM conservatives to come out of hiding and join that party or be frauds. It only helps the Left in the long run, sadly.
“Corzine is an overwhelming favorite to win now on Intrade: 60%”
Intrade has no inside knowledge. It reflects the polls and the latest one shows Corzine with a 3% lead. Chicago was at 70% to win the Olympics until a couple hours before the decision when it dropped to 60%.
Tommy boy the Same Intrade who had Chicago winning the Olympics at 80% a day before the vote??
LOL
“I agree, but I want Hoffman to win. DeDe got a $ million plus today from the RNC, she will win now.”
I want Hoffman to win, but if I have to choose between an R and a D who can vote for speaker I have to go with the R. If Hoffman had a chance it would be different, but he doesn’t.
#77 Sarah Palinin isn’t a conservative? Why would you say that? A Palin/Kasich ticket is probably the most conservative ticket you could put together that could win. To me that could be the winning ticket. McCain’s handlers practacally threw Sarah under the bus along with McCain’s daughter. I think she is compleatly free from McCain. The only reason I voted for McCain / Palin was because of Sarah Palin. I always keep saying don’t blame me I voted for Palin!!
“Tommy boy the Same Intrade who had Chicago winning the Olympics at 80% a day before the vote??”
Double LOL
Drill
By Sarah Palin
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Nzc2ZjhjY2MwMWUyM2M4NTM5YWRjYTcwMTEzZTNjMTc=
Breaking News: Harry Reid has saved the world.
“Was everything we’ve done perfect?” Reid asked. “No. But I have no doubt what we did has saved the world (economy).”
Jason T,
Not saying we need a 3rd party (heck i’d be happy for a second party other than the Dems), but you’d think after 3rd parties constantly suck away votes, election after election that the R’s would content for those votes instead the moving more toward “the middle”. True they gain some votes by moving left, but those votes come at the cost of even losing more to a 3rd party if one is present.
Here is what is going to happen in NY. The R is going to lose. The elites are going to blame social-cons. The base is going to throw a fit that they are getting blamed for not voting for the most liberal of the 3 candidates. The internal war will only deepen and the party leader won’t fix the problem in 2010 and cost a few more house seats. We cry about Dems not listening to voters, maybe we should look into the mirror and see that Reps don’t give a crap either. Only problem is that Conservative/Libertarian types can’t be rounded like sheep to the booth if they are being ignored like Dem voters can.
Like I said before: we sent the message, stop blaming the voters for the leaders not understanding it.
#85, sounds like it. There hasn’t be this much excitement with Virginia Repbulicans since George Allen’s campaign for Govenor in 1993. We all know what happened the following November.
HOFFMAN DOES HAVE A CHANCE! We hashed this all out yesterday. And the GOP candidate is NOT a moderate for crying out loud. I am all for a big tent and having to put up with some moderate GOPs, but you have no party if you are no different from your opponent. Its crazy. At 23% Hoffman is not that far behind in a three-way race, and once the conservative voters of that district, and even moderate GOP voters see that Hoffman is the REAL GOP candidate, they will stampede over to his side.
david, do you think Allen will run for office again?
Ditto D,
If they ignore the base, they lose!!
On huck, no way he’s nominated. I’m a professor and i cannot vote for a preacher! If i want a sermon, i’ll go to church! Nuff said
113…no worries, he is a liberal preacher, not a conservative one. He preaches fluffy flowers and warm fuzzies. Not hellfire and damnation. I have my reservations with Huck, but its not his preaching, even though I wish he had been a conservative preacher instead of a liberal one.
Huckabee/Bumblebee 2012
In Nov. 2001, 6 weeks after 9/11, the Democrats picked up the governorships of NJ and VA and the Democrats . did it help the DEMS in 2002 and 2004. No
I think a Virginia win is great for the GOP in a swing State. I hope Chrisitie wins, but if not, Jersey is a blue State that does not affect 2012.
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Darrell, Huck would gain big traction with me if he ran against Blanche Lincoln in 2010.
I do think he would beat Obama. Even Ohio governor Strickland said Huck would be tough in the Midwest.
Huckabee, if he had George Bush type $$$, would win back Ohio, IND, NC, Va, FL, and then would win Iowa.
My opinion, do not not trash me. LOL
George Allen is waiting for Webb in 2012. After the VA GOP effectively neutered the Washington Post in 2009, Allen will win.
Huck is a little too Gomer Pyle-ish for me.
I see one of Obama’s Billionaire Hedge Fund Supporters got indicted by the FEDS today for Fraud.
118…I agree that Huck could be formitable against Obama.
Federal Deficit hits all time high of 1.42 Trillion. Keep spending Hussein.
#121 I suppose it is wishful thinking that it is Soros.
122. I would knock to door to door for Palin, but electorally if Huckabee had the $$$, I think he would win.
Many conservatives may not like stances, but him being southern gives him credibility with Evangelicals.
124. Some Hindu
120 Like I say, Huck has faults, but he has big advantages on the Electoral map that Clinton also had. I am not a Huck guy, but the TV show has helped him on FOX. He could start by helping the GOP nominee in ARK against Blanche Lincoln.
RE: Political endorsements
The Atlanta Journal Constitution will no longer endorse candidates for political office. They have ‘listened’ to the readers and will provide articles on the candidates and their positions on the issues. Readership is off as everyone knows, so this move is interesting.
DOW closed under 10k for the Week. The DEM media lose a talking point for Sunday morning.
Huck’s too much of a populist to face Skippy on even terms.
GM
Intrade nailed it. Only a fool would go to the Olympics to present the case for Chicago and not have the vote in the bag. The President of the United states does not show up in Copenhagen without the deal already cut.
I do not blame intrade missing the Olympic bid but rather Obama for going to some corrupt tin horn group of mini dictators and begging for the Olympics.
redel, INTRADE has made many gaffes, besides Chicago. Elelction day 2004 was awful.
Reid asked. “No. But I have no doubt what we did has saved the world”
BFD…I invented the Internet.
Let’s see…
PPP: Christie ahead
SUSA: Christie ahead
The Ras: Christie ahead
NYT: Corzine ahead
Greenberg: Corzine ahead
FU poll: Corzine ahead
We have six separate polls–three done by Dem hacks, two done by less biased pollsters, and one done by a Dem organization that overtly tried to fix the date for its poll. All show Corzine polling aorund 40%. The two less biased pollsters and the Dem organization that openly shilled for Corzine have Christie ahead. The three Dem hackjob polls have Corzine ahead. I can tell you what way I’m betting on this race given the above data.
130. Charles you may be right, but my gut tells me Obama’s star will have faded by 2012, and like Jimmy Cater after Watergate, a plain nominee like Huck with his electoral Advantages would win.
Tina
CA must be in the tank if a large Domino’s one topping pizza is 5.99
Is unemployment at 15% yet??
Let me repeat that my Domino’s ad has a $8.99 any size -any toppings. That means I could get 4 toppings on my pizza. The ad has a picture of a pizza with onions, green peppers, sausage, mushrooms and pepperoni. None of this one topping business.
You spend more but you can get a whole lot more.
I was especially impressed that I got a $5 off add at the dollar general. The Dollar General already has low low prices on its cheap generic products (it has brand names too) so $5. off on cheap single ply paper towels really cuts it down to nothing.
GA, maybe they finally figured out openly campaigning for Dem candidates in an overwhelmingly Republican state would hurt their circulation further?
I agree Wes, but the media will make the perception that Christie is losing, therefore hoping Daggett voters will not jump to the GOP because Christie is the favorite.
Honestly, Jason, I wouldn’t want Huckabee to win the GOP nod. He reminds me far too much of Huey Long for me to be excited to vote for him. Besides that, by pumping his ego rather than downballot candidates for his party, he let the Dems regain control of Arkansas politics.
Intrade just reflects what the current polls show. Right now if you buy a few Corzine shares at 60, 59, 57 you can drop him to 55 without any “insider knowledge” for less than 100 bucks. Intrade does not lead, it reacts. Currently its Corzine with a 60% chance and Christie at 42% just because of the NYT poll. Have another poll with Christie ahead even by 1% and it will shift again.
I don’t think that will work, Jason. Also, I believe Corzine’s deeply personal attacks on Christie’s weight will boomerang against him.
Grandma and Grandpa are really unhappy with Obama care. So right as we consider Obama care its time to send them $250 stimulus checks again?
What happened to Paygo rules??
The stimulus is not working so we need to spend 13 billion on checks to seniors??
Guess how much of the $787 billion stimulus has been spent?? I understand that its less then 50% and yet we need to spend more while we have not spent how has already been authorized.
If anyone thinks that the electorate is happy with all this mess you are wrong.
I stick by +5 Christie and +10 McDonnell
Is the media trying to be too clever? Will people bolt from Daggett because the election is close to dump Corzine?
“I agree Wes, but the media will make the perception that Christie is losing, therefore hoping Daggett voters will not jump to the GOP because Christie is the favorite”
That’s the strategy. Let’s see it works for a guy with a 65% job disapproval rating.
139. Wes, my feeling about huck are two things.
In 2012, America will not be looking for Charisma anymore with Double Digit Unemployment and Inflation.
Huck has the same advantages electorally Clinton had, a Southerner close to the MidWest.
Just my take
I saw a crawl on the news this morning, Rdel, that said Michigan claims to have “saved or created” a whopping 400 jobs since the stimulus was passed. I’m sure that completely incalculable statistic is a great comfort to the 15% of Michiganders out of work since Obama took office.
Christie should have an ad out….
Corzine destroyed the state economy, taxes are exorbitant, unemployment double digits, etc.
I am fat.
I still don’t see it, Jason. Huckabee will run a Huey Long-style campaign, and that’s not what the GOP needs.
I wish Huck would take away Blanche’s senate seat, but this poll will make him starry eyed.
143. D, I think that is the media’s motive. They know from inside numbers that Corzine cannot win Daggett has at least 12% to 15%. So They put out bogus polls from Clintonista’s saying Corzine is the favorite, why switch from Daggett to Christie.
Christie is at fault here too, he needs to go negative.
149…I agree with you. Huck would be great on the senate floor.
There’s no need for Huckabee to jump into the race at this point, other Jason. Lincoln will be joining Reid, Dodd, and a boatload of other Dem Senators in the unemployment line come January of 2011.
Huckabee will be eviscerated by the media. But then again, what Republican won’t? Even their darling McCain was defined as an old bumbling womanizing fool who didnt understand economics and the Internet and was mean to his ex and didnt know how many houses he had.
Wes, I hope someone emerges then. I love Palin, I like Palwenty etc…
If not for 2006 George Allen would be the nominee, but the media whores nailed him.
Does Daggett personally want Corzine to win? Anybody know?
Jason, Reagan was massacred by the media in 1980 with the Bonzo and senile crap too. That is expected.
To be fair, Jason, Allen did everything in his power to give the media the ammo to take him out. It was almost as if he wanted to lose.
If Christie loses, Daggett’s 5 minutes are up.
Wes, Webb was just as racist as Allen.
There is a rumor Corzine lured Daggett into the race to syphon votes away from Christie because Corzine knew he would never win a head-to-head matchup.
“Jason, Reagan was massacred by the media in 1980 with the Bonzo and senile crap too. That is expected.”
Sure, but neither McCain or Huckabee are Reagan…they can’t pull off the “there you go again” with the same panache.
How true that is though, I have no clue.
Great posts here today, I will get off the ledge and say Christie will still win. NY-23 I do not know, but she is awful
161. Then explain Nixon. He had no Reagan silver tongue, and won two terms, along with Bush.
“There is a rumor Corzine lured Daggett into the race…”
Ok, assuming that is correct, is Daggett in on the plot is my question. He could have been lured without being in cahoots with Corzine. Is Daggett getting a payoff if Corzine wins?
That’s true, Jason. In fact, I’d say Webb was far more of a bigot than Allen. The thing was that Webb was never caught making a demeaing statement about a person of other-than-white heritage. What Allen should have done when he saw Siddarth filming him was wlak up to him, shake his hand, welcome him, and ask him to join the people for lunch. It would have completely obviated what ultimately happened and kept Webb in the Senate. The very worst thing Allen could have done was what he did. It was really painful to watch him self-destruct as he did. Shades of George W Bush, really.
160. Wes if that is true, then Christie’s people should have been privy to it. They could have easily sabatoged Daggett in the beginning, or gave him a cabinent post.
This is Jersey, not Narnia.
“Then explain Nixon. He had no Reagan silver tongue, and won two terms, along with Bush.”
Ah, but Nixon had already been Borked and had survived with the Checkers speech. He didn’t survive Watergate but the MSM was low on ammunition in 1968, they thought they had got rid of him in 1962 when he lost the California race.
Nixon lost a nailbiter to a vigorous opponent in 1960. In 1968, he couldn’t lose because of Johnson’s unpopularity. In 1972, the Dems overreached and gave Nixon his dream opponent. Had Nixon faced a more substantial candidate in 1972, it’s far from clear he would ahve been reelected. Then again, it’s far from clear he would have been defeated.
Well, the GOP is assailing Daggett on taxcheating. I never said Daggett DID get into the race at corzine’s behest. I just said some people in New Jersey have speculated that was the case. Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised it Corzine in his desperation did lure Daggett into the race.
Wes, you are right though. Its been under the radar, but the GOP has picked up some great Senate Candidates, that should at least strengthen a Filibuster.
the thing about Corzine is that he has never broken 40%, even in a three way race, that is unelectable for a incumbent.
134. Dont forget about Christian Family Poll too
If things deteriorate further for the Dems, then the GOP may have to be the party trying to obviate a filibuster after next year.
CA may ban plasma tvs.
Re Nixon, GHWB, Reagan etc. They were successful in defining their opponents first. Carter as an incompetent (not too difficult), Mondale as weak on Defense, Dukakis as weak on crime, etc. Clinton defined GHWB as weak on the economy. Obama defined himself as the Messiah.
If Republicans can define Obama as a failed Messiah he will lose despite the MSM support.
Well, Corzine was at 41% in 1 poll and 44% in another. Aside form that, though, he’s been stuck at 40% or below. That’s not good news at all for Johnny C.
I heard about that, Tina. Why do you continue to live in that sewer of a state? I’d have moved long ago. The Pacific islands must be much better places to live.
“the thing about Corzine is that he has never broken 40%, even in a three way race, that is unelectable for a incumbent”
I have been making that point for weeks, Jason T. …. only in NJ would this guy still be politically viable.
I’m not even sure New Jerseyites are that stupid, other Jason. Then again I’ve been wrong–rarely–before.
Long roots here in CA, Wes. Difficult to move, I really like the weater, not too hot, not too cold.
It owuld be interesting to see the polling data for the 1993 NJ race.
Wes, if not for California, the DEMS would never win another race.
It is amazing that Bush won twice without those 55 electorals.
181. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
They would have won last year without California, Jason. It’s sad Bush was such a disaster as a candidate he had to win without California. Conceding that much firepower to the enemy is never a wise move.
From 1968 to 1988 the GOP won California, I think Nixon won in 1960 also.
Too many illegals there Wes.
I remember the first poll after Deeds won the Nomination in Va had him up 5%. Intrade had Deeds at 65% that day.
I hate to beat up on a dead pony, but this caught my eye…
“Only 21 percent of Americans now have a favorable view of Edwards. Of the modern politicians who have had their dalliances, none has sunk like Edwards.”
My first ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
from EPH.
Am I going crazy or have TWO days gone by now with the headline picture on Drudge that Stupid balloon story???
IS there nothing else going on?
I will jump in before eph does….
190:
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Modoc County went 67-29 for McCain in California, his biggest margin in any county there. Unfortunately they only have 5k voters.
Wes,
I’d bet you $100 on Corzine at this point. Think about it man. It’s tied with Corzine at around 70% with blacks. I think they are more likely to defect from Daggett to Corzine than conservatives from Daggett to Christie.
It’s certainly been an interesting day on Intrade for the 2012 primary race. It seems like Huckabee rising is having an effect on Pawlenty.
Wes,
By the way, I’m still hoping Erickson jumps on the Begich story. We should force him to issue a denial.
isn’t this pole a little premature. 3 years is a long ways off, who knows what sort of candidates we will be looking at. I do agree with the above post that none of the top 3 will be nominated.
Sadly i believe 2012 will probably go to Obama so the republican party should be more concentrated on taking and keeping the house and the senate to essentially neuter Obama. A lame duck Obama is an Obama i could live with.
“I’d bet you $100 on Corzine at this point.”
I wouldn’t. RCP still has Christie narrowly ahead, and voting by mail has been going on for weeks, presumably reflecting the polling when Christie had a bigger lead.
Conservatives will defect from Daggett to Christie, what conservative wants Corzine again???
If Corzine isn’t polling at least 45% by election day not even Daggett can save him.
Ok, so instead of making a prediction, I am going to look at what Christie needs to do to win.
1. Perform extremely well in counties like Hunterdon, Sussex, Warren and Morris. If Daggett is getting big numbers there, Christie is going to be in huggggge trouble.
2. Perform better than 60-40 in favor of Corzine in Middlesex and Union counties.
3. Win the swing county of Somerset.
4. Win better than McCain’s 51-48 in Monmouth and take Ocean and Cape May by 10-15 pt margins.
5. Take Salem and Gloucester counties in South Jersey and keep margins down in Trenton and Camden.He needs the red counties to be really red and capture Somerset.
I would take any of the Republicans on the list over Obama in a nanosecond. But I agree in two years we will probably see other candidates emerging.
Umm..also, I think we need to stop writing states off. George W. Bush campaigned all over and that is why he won. If we stop campaigning in NJ, CA or New England we are going to become a regional party. Even Dick Cheney went to Hawaii to see if he could rally some support. Even if it doesn’t work it furthers the message outside of that state. It is so important. Bush lost NJ by 7 and CA by 10, it isn’t cause he was liberal it was because the message was there. Obama won by 15 and 20 in those states when McCain ran.
199, i am not saying i want Obama, but realistically he is gonna be a tough customer to beat. Face it a lot of the nation are and will continue to be Obamabots. I feel we are in for it with him, and unless he looks exceptionally weak in 2012, we shouldn’t invent all of our eggs into beating him. We would be better off throwing a weak candidate at him with low funding, then trying all we can to pick up the senate and house seats to make him a lame duck.
Not being idealistic, just realistic.
O/T january jones
http://www.gq.com/women/photos/200911/january-jones-slideshow#slide=7
Live streaming the NJ debate:
http://live.foxnews.com/strategy-room
Let me know how the candidates fare in this debate. I can’t stand watching Corzine.
I do not mean to kid about the coupons that I get in the mail. Retailers are hurting and that’s a reflectation of the job market and economic situation.
I lay the blame squarely in the lap of Obama. He has under cut the financial markets, the manufacturing and energy segments of the economy with Cap and Trade plus Obamacare is a knive posed at 16% of GNP. No wonder people are hanging on their money and businesses are not hiring. Obama is a one man anti-stimulus plan.
If you want a stream without annoying commentators:
http://www2.my9tv.com/subindex/my9_news/political_news/gov_debate
in 2012 skippy will be worse than the peanut farmer ever was. watch hilary make her move.
#112, I really don’t know at this point if Allen will run again. If Allen doesn’t run against Webb in 2012, look for the new Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to run against Webb. The dems are afraid of Ken.
Tina:
After make that statement above. It appears Allen getting more active once again in politics. He is being seem throughout the state.
Obama will campaign for Deeds on 27th of October. One week before election. Thoughts?
Me thinks that’ll give the spin more leverage. Imagine the headlines. “despite campaigns from Obama, Clinton, Gore, Washington Post, Deeds loses by 7 points”
who won the nj debate ?
That’s encouraging.
can mayor cory booker deliver enough votes in newark?
booker is more important than obama. corzine will win
in a squeaker!
Tammy-
Stop smoking crack. It’s highly addictive.
Who won the NJ debate?
Marv,
Here’s the headline from Politico:
Christie takes aim at Daggett
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28402.html
It sounds like Daggett got off some great lines.
In a clear reference to the unfavorable ratings of the two major-party candidates, Daggett said: “It’s time to vote for someone rather than against someone.”
Twice, Daggett got off the same line on the issue: “My definition of [property tax] rebates is money Republicans and Democrats shouldn’t have taken from you in first place.”
201) http://www.prozac.com
This thread is awful. Some of the comments are just plain stupid. Like let Obama win in 2012?!?!?!?
Dave can you re thread us night owls???
“210.who won the nj debate ?”
Sara Palin
RAS = 47/52
Where’s Phil ??????
hahahahahahahahahahahahahha
219 LOL
Eph, did you read the Carville/Greenberg focus group memo?
http://gqrr.com/articles/2398/5488_TheVerySeparateWorldofConservativeRepublicans101609.pdf
Check out the parts on Palin on the last two pages.
http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/34192/no-winner-gubernatorial-debate-daggett-was-big-loser
Per Politico…
One of the largest unions openly challenging WH on health care…
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28397.html
Gee, Brandon’s site has Corzine -vote for him in the top of his link. Is this site left wing?
NY Slimes said that Christie’s close was especially srong and got a rousing audience response.
Wow, that’s good news if Christie held his own and Daggett lost some steam.
#224. They’ve had Christie ads as well. I guess it’s whoever pays for the advertising at that time.
Who won the Christie/Corzine/Daggett debate last night?
Huck has no shot at ever becoming POTUS. Strength in the mid-south only.
The blog server firms decide on the ads in many cases. That is the libs strategy. Look at this site and RP – both have MSNBC ads. Neither Dave or McCain would accept those if they had a choice.
Christie is in deep trouble. No one wants to hear that. He better pray for the type of rain we are having today on election day.
The libs think Corzine won. The cons and some mods think Christie won. Those who are pissed at both parties think Daggett won.
No one did. It was boring! Christie performed better than this time. Daggett was trying to play the middle man, the good guy painting christie and corzine as birds of a feather. But Christie did a good job in my opinion. Corzine wasn’t so appealing.
I’m glad you realize Huckabee has no chance of becoming President, MD. The man was far from a great Governor of Arkansas and won by only 7 against an unknown opponent who raised virtually no money and barely campaigned–even as Huckabee’s wife was annihilated in the Secretary of State race in a great year for Republicans. Huckabee’s ego is so enormous–I’d say the Andromeda Galaxy would be small compared to it–he doesn’t realize that though.
Jack, Corzine has all the personal appeal of the man-eating shark from Jaws. The only thing sustaining him is Daggett’s candidacy combined with the natural dem proclivity in New Jersey. I have my doubts about how much that will help him on Election Day.
New thread pls!
Wes,
I actually like his TV show but his record was mixed. I really feel like he should take on Lincoln but you are right – his ego is going to force him into another misguided run for POTUS. Huck was responsible for McCain being the candidate. Romney would have lost as well so I guess it didn’t matter in the end.
No Republican had a chance last year after Bush suffered such a sustained decline in his popularity, MD. God Himself would have lost to Obama had He been the GOP nominee because of that.
230. LOL
‘Christie is in deep trouble”
Right, a Republican in NJ is actually tied or ahead 2 weeks before the election, while the sitting Democratic governor is mired at 40% in polls and has a 65% disapproval rating, despite greater resources and a formidable machine.
Who is in trouble?
Any of these people on the list and any others in any Republican’s imagination will lose big time to Obama in 2012.
Go ahead make our day ! Nominate Palin!
#238. The Rpeublican is in trouble because he had been leading up until now. He is no longer leading.
You lose!