The Hedgehog Report 2009 Election Prediction Contest
BUMPED TO TOP
I haven’t had one of these in a while and there is no better time to do another one than right now with three high profile elections coming up on Tuesday.
The rules for this contest are simple; provide your prediction for the results for three races in round whole numbers. They include the Virginia gubernatorial race, the New Jersey gubernatorial race, and the New York Congressional race. Your prediction should look like the following:
Virginia
McDonnell 62%
Deeds 38%New Jersey
Christie 47%
Corzine 42%
Daggett 11%New York
Hoffman 51%
Owens 46%
Scozzafava 3%
Now wouldn’t those results be nice…but they are not my prediction which will come later. The winner will be based on a subjective look at the closeness of the final numbers, but getting the right winner and order of finish of the candidates will be important.
As in previous Prediction contests, only put your predictions in this thread without commentary. You can argue, debate, persuade, etc on any other thread, but keep it strictly limited to your predictions in this thread. I will delete any extraneous postings when I get the chance.
Prediction thread will be open until Sunday night at 7pm, so no need to rush and get your prediction in right away while you digest the final polls for the race. But you must have it in by 7pm on Sunday for it to count.
So step up and show how good a prognosticator you really are…or just make a wild guess…which is what most of us do anyway….the winner might even get a prize….
McDonnell 57%-Deeds 43%
Christie 45% Corzine 42% Daggett 13%
Hoffman 47% Owens 40% Scozzafava 13%
VA
McDonnell – 57
Deeds – 43
NJ
Corzine – 45
Christie – 43
Daggett – 12
NY
Hoffmann – 37
Owens – 34
Scozza – 29
VA:
McDonnell- 56
Deeds- 44
NJ:
Christie- 44
Corzine- 42
Daggett- 12
Others- 2
NY:
Owens- 37
Hoffman- 34
Scozzafava- 29
VA
McDonnel 56%
Deeds 44%
NJ
Christie 45%
Corzine 44%
Daggett 09%
Others 02%
NY
Owens 36,5%
Hoffmann 36,0%
Scozzafava 28,0%
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44
Christie 46
Corzine 43
Daggett 9
Others 2
Hoffman 42
Owens 35
Dede 23
VA
McDonnell-58
Deeds-42
NJ
Christie-46
Corzine-45
Daggett-9
NY
Hoffman-47
Owens-36
Dede-17
VA
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44
NJ
Christie 45
Corzine 43
Daggett 9
Others 2
NY 23
Hoffman 35
Owens 33
Scozzafava 22
VA
McDonnell-55
Deeds-45
NJ
Christie-47
Corzine-42
Daggett-9
Other-2
NY
Hoffman-46
Owens-30
Scozzafava-24
Mcdonnell 53
deeds 37
Corzine 43
christie 42
Dagett&others 15
Owens no clue
dede no clue
scoffazza – No clue
McDonnell 57 – Deeds 43
Christie 45 – Corzine 43 – Daggett 10 – Other 2
Hoffman 41 – Owens 40 – Scozzafava – 19
Virginia
McDonnell 60%
Deeds 39%
New Jersey
Christie 46%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 13%
New York
Hoffman 51%
Owens 36%
Scozzafava 13%
Va.
McDonnell 59%
Deeds 41%
New Jersey:
Corzine 44%
Christie 42%
Daggett 14%
New York:
Hoffman 41%
Owens 34%
Scozzafava 25%
McDonnell 55 Deeds 45
Corzine 45 Christie 43 Daggett 12
Owens 41 Hoffman 39 Scozza 20
Virginia
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%
New Jersey
Christie 45%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%
NY 23
Hoffman 43%
Owens 40%
Scozzafava 17%
Virginia
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 45%
New Jersey
Christie 44%
Corzine 42%
Daggett 14%
New York
Hoffman 42%
Owens 38%
Scozzafava 20%
NJ:
Christie 48%
Cozine 46%
Daggett 6%
VA:
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 45%
NY:
Owens 44%
Hoffman 32%
Scozzafava 24%
Virginia
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 41%
New Jersey
Christie 49%
Corzine 42%
Daggett 9%
New York
Hoffman 42%
Owens 38%
Scozzafava 15%
VA
McDonnell-54
Deeds-46
NJ
Christie-48
Corzine-47
Daggett-5
NY
Hoffman-35
Owens-37
Scozzafava-28
Virginia
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 42%
New Jersey
First Count
Christie 46%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%
Second Count
Christie 46%
Corzine 45%
Daggett 9%
Third Count (sometime in 2010)
Corzine 48%
Christie 46%
Daggett 6%
New York
Hoffman 40%
Owens 37%
Scozzafava 23%
VA McDonnell 58
Deeds 39
NJ Christie 46
Corzine 41
Daggett 9
NY 23 Hoffman 39
Owens 37
Scozzafava 23
My best guesses:
VA:
McDonnell: 56%
Deeds: 43%
NJ:
Corzine 44%
Christie 47%
Daggett 7%
NY-23
Hoffman-46%
Owens-39%
Dede-14%
-Polaris
Virginia [BIG smackdown]
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 42%
New Jersey (Winner: voter fraud and corruption)
Corzine 45.5%
Christie 43.5%
Daggett 7%
others 4%
New York [fingers crossed...]
Hoffman 47%
Owens 43%
Scozzafava 10%
VA
MCDONNELL:57, DEEDS:42
NJ:
CHRISTIE: 46.5 CORZINE: 43.5 DAGGETT: 9
NY-23:
HOFFMAN:47 OWENS: 44 DEDE: 9
Here are my picks:
VA
McDonnell-57
Deeds-42
NJ
Christie-45
Corzine-44
Daggett-9
NY
Hoffman-40
Owens-38
Scozzafava-21
“New York
Hoffman 51%
Owens 46%
Scozzafava 3%”
Oh, so this isn’t DW’s real NY-23 call?
LOL
Here are my picks:
VA
McDonnell-50
Deeds-49
NJ
Corzine-45
Cristie-44
Daggett-10
NY
Owens-40
Hoffman-39
Scozzafava-21
I need to ask a point of ruling question on that other thread- the one about the Predicitions:
Can I predict that Christie wins on election night, but Corzine steals it a la MN??
VA
McDonnell 60%
Deeds 40%
NJ
Christie 47%
Corzine 45%
Daggert 6%
Others 2%
Ny-23
Hoffman 43%
Owens 41%
Scozzafava 16%
VA:
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 43%
NJ:
Christie 45%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%
others 1%
NY-23:
Hoffman 41%
Owens 39%
Scozzafava 20%
NYC Mayor:
Bloomberg 62%
Hoffman 38%
VA:
McDonnell – 58%
Deeds – 41%
NJ:
Christie – 47%
Corzine – 44%
Daggett – 9%
NY:
Hoffman – 39%
Owens – 36%
Scozzafava – 25%
VA Gov:
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%
NJ Gov:
Christie 46%
Corzine 44%
Daggett/ Other 10%
NY 23:
Hoffman 44%
Owens 41%
Scozzafava 15%
VA Gov
McDonnell-56
Deeds-43
NJ Gov
Christie-46
Corzine-45
Daggett-8
NY-23
Hoffman-44
Owens-42
Scozzafava-13
VA
McDonnell: 57%
Deeds: 43%
NJ:
Christie: 44%
Corzine: 43%
Daggett: 13
NY:
Hoffman: 39%
Owens: 37%
Dede: 24%
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%
Christie 44%
Corzine 45%
Daggett 10%
Others 1%
Hoffman 44%
Owens 39%
Dede 17%
VA
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%
NJ
Corzine 52%
Christie 48%
NY
Hoffman 48%
Owens 42%
Scozzafava 10%
VA:
McDonnell: 61
Deeds: 39
NJ:
Christie: 50
Corzine: 43
Daggett: 7
NY-23:
Hoffman: 51
Owens: 40
Scozzafava: 9
New Jersey:
Christie 47
Corzine 44
Daggett 8
Others 1
Virginia:
McDonnell 55
Deeds 44
Others 1
NY23:
Hoffman 44
Owens 39
DeDe 17
VA
McDonnell-54
Deeds-46
NJ
Cristie-46
Corzine-42
Daggett-8
NY
Hoffman-41
Owens-38
Scozzafava-21
Virginia:
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%
New Jersey:
Christie 44% [winner]
Corzine 44%
Daggett 10%
New York:
Hoffman 42%
Owens 37%
Scozzafava 21%
Virginia
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 45%
New Jersey
Corzine 46%
Christie 45%
Daggett 8%
New York
Owens 41%
Hoffman 35%
Scozzafava 24%
5 lincs add…
Oceaffok
occurbupe
doubaffoda
Slefictvalleypert
LoNscennaoppobre
VA:
McDonnell 59%
Deeds 41%
NJ:
Christie 48%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 7%
NY-23:
Hoffman 46%
Owens 36%
Dede 16%
VA
McDonnell 55
Deeds 42
NY 23
Hoffman 42
Owens 38
Scozza 19
NJ
Christie 46
Corzine 44
Daggett 9
VA: McDonnell 53%-Deeds 47%
NJ: Corzine 46%-Christie 40%
NY-23: Owens 45%-Hoffman 40%
Virginia
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%
New Jersey
Christie 45%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%
New York
Hoffman 43%
Owens 42%
Scozzafava 15%
New York-23
Hoffman 45%
Owens 36%
Dede 17%
Virginia
McDonnell 54%
Deeds 45%
New Jersey
Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
Daggett 10%
VA
McDonnell 55
Deeds 45
NJ
Christie 46
Corzine 45
Daggett 7
NY-23
Hoffman 40
Owens 39
Sozzofava 21
VA: McDonnell 59-41
NJ: Christie 49-44-7
NYC: Bloomberg 57-43
NY: Hoffman 45-39-16
CA: Harmer 52-48
New Jersey
Christie 46
Corzine 44
Daggett 10
Virginia
McDonald 56
Deeds 44
NY23
Hoffman 41
Owens 39
Scazzofava 20
CA10
Garabondi(?) 55: Harmer 45
1. McDonnell 57%, Deeds 43%
2. Christie 47% Corzine 45% Daggett 8%
3. Hoffman 41% Owens 39% Scozzafava 20%
VA McDonnell 56% Deeds 44%
NJ Christie 48% Corzine 44% Daggett 8%
NY23 Hoffman 42% Owens 32% Scozzafava 26%
CA10 Garamendi 53% Harmer 47%
1 McDonnell 55%,Deeds 45%
2 Christie 46%,Corzine 45%,Daggett 9%
3 Hoffman 40%,Owens 39%,Scozzofava 21%
4 Garamendi 54%, Harmer 46%
5 Bloomberg 54%,Thompson 46%
1. VA Governor — McDonnell 56%, Deeds 44%
2. NJ Governor — Corzine 47%, Christie 46%, Daggett 7%
3. NY 23rd — Hoffman 46%, Owens 44%, Scozzafava 10%
McDonnell 54
Deeds 46
Corzine 45
Christie 43
Daggett 12
Owens 48
Hoffman 47
Scozzafava 5
My new prediction in New York 23 given todays developments with Dede.
Hoffman 52%
Owens 43%
Dede 5%
VA
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 42%
NJ
Christie 46%
Corzine 44%
Daggett 9%
NY-23
Hoffman 51%
Owens 38%
Dede 11%
Virginia
McDonnell 53
Deeds
Redo:
VA
McDonnell: 57%
Deeds: 43%
NJ:
Christie: 44%
Corzine: 43%
Daggett: 13%
NY:
Hoffman: 51%
Owens: 42%
Dede: 7%
and for kicks…
CA 10:
Harmer: 50.1%
Garamendi: 49.9%
Virginia
McDonnell 53
Deeds 45
other 2
New Jersey
Christie 48
Corzine 46
Daggett 5
other 1
New York
Hoffman 54
Owens 42
Scozzafava 4
va
mcdonnell 57
deeds 42
nj
cristie 47
corzinw 45
dagett 8
ny
hoffman 52
owens 39
dede 8
New Jersey:
Christie 47
Corzine 44
Daggett 8
Others 1
Virginia:
McDonnell 55
Deeds 44
Others 1
NY23:
(amended following withdrawal of DeDe S.)
Hoffman 49
Owens 40
DeDe 11
My redo because of NY-23 (again best guess):
VA:
McDonnell: 56%
Deeds: 43%
NJ:
Corzine 44%
Christie 47%
Daggett 7%
NY-23 (this is revised based on today’s news)
Hoffman-52%
Owens-43%
Dede-5%
-Polaris
Re-do based on the events from today:
New York-23
Hoffman 52%
Owens 37%
Dede 10%
Virginia
McDonnell 54%
Deeds 45%
New Jersey
Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
Daggett 10%
My redo:
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44
Christie 46
Corzine 43
Daggett 9
Others 2
Hoffman 46
Owens 39
Dede 15
VA
McDonnel 63
Deeds. 37
NJ
Christie 52
Corzine. 39
Dagget. 5
NY
Hoffman. 57
Owens. 39
Dede. 4
Redo on NY23
VA McDonnell 56% Deeds 44%
NJ Christie 48% Corzine 44% Daggett 8%
NY23 Hoffman 49% Owens 41% Scozzafava 10%
CA10 Garamendi 53% Harmer 47%
VA:
McDonnell: 59
Deeds: 39
Other: 2
NJ:
Christie: 48
Corzine: 43
Daggert: 7
Other: 2
NY-23:
Hoffman: 51
Owens: 41
Scozzafava: 8
CA-10:
Harmer: 52
Garamendi: 48
My redo based on the NY-23 developments:
VA:
McDonnell – 58%
Deeds – 41%
NJ:
Christie – 47%
Corzine – 44%
Daggett – 9%
NY:
Hoffman – 47%
Owens – 40%
Scozzafava – 13%
va.
mcdonnell 59%
deeds 40%
new jersey:
corzine 44% (eventual winner after extra votes found)
christie 45%
daggett 10%
new york:
hoffman 45%
owens 40%
scozzafava 15%
Here are my picks (again) with NY-23 updated:
VA
McDonnell-57
Deeds-42
NJ
Christie-45
Corzine-44
Daggett-9
NY
Hoffman-49
Owens-41
Scozzafava-9
Updated:
VA
McDonnell – 57
Deeds – 43
NJ
Corzine – 45
Christie – 43
Daggett – 12
Updated NY 23 (official)
Hoffman – 49
Owens – 42
Dede – 9
CA 10
No friggin idea
VA:
McDonnell – 57%
Deeds – 42%
NJ:
Christie – 47%
Corzine – 44%
Daggett – 8%
Others – 1%
NY:
Hoffman – 48%
Owens – 43%
Scozzafava – 8%
VA:
McDonnell – 56.5
Deeds – 42.5
NJ:
Christi – 47
Corzine – 45
Daggett – 7
NY 23
Hoffman – 47
Owens – 44
DeDe – 9
Cal 10
Dem wins by 10
Updated: (post dede suspension)
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%
Christie 45.8%
Corzine 45.2%
Daggett 9%
Hoffman 52%
Owens 43%
Dede 6%
CA-10
Garamendi wins by single digits.
Christie: 47.5
Corzine: 44
Daggett: 6.5
McDonnell: 57
Deeds: 43
Hoffman: 57
Owens: 40
Scozzafava: 3
VA:
McDonnell – 56%
Deeds – 43%
NJ:
Christie – 47%
Corzine – 45%
Daggett – 7%
Others – 1%
NY:
Hoffman – 50.5%
Owens – 41%
Scozzafava – 8%
Virginia
McDonnell: 55
Deeds: 42
New Jersey
Christie: 45
Corzine: 43
Daggett: 8
NY-23
Hoffman: 53
Owens: 39
Scozzafava: 8
Virginia
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 42%
New Jersey
Christie 49%
Corzine 44%
Daggett 7%
New York
Hoffman 51%
Owens 44%
Scozzafava 5%
Virginia
McDonnell – 57%
Deeds – 43%
NJ
Christie – 40.02%
Corzine – 40.01%
Daggett – 8%
New York
Hoffman – 53%
Owens – 44%
Scozzafava – 2%
Dave, I am removing the “halves” from my NJ prediction to make it simpler:
Christie: 48
Corzine: 44
Daggett: 6
McDonnell: 57
Deeds: 43
Hoffman: 57
Owens: 40
Scozzafava: 3
McDonnell – 56%
Deeds – 44%
Christie – 44%
Corzine – 42%
Daggett – 14%
Hoffman – 49%
Owens – 41%
Scozzafava -10%
Redo-
VA-
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44
(similar victory margins for Republicans Bolling and Cuccinelli
in Lt. Gov and AG races)
NJ-
Christie 45
Corzine 43
Daggett 9
others 3
NY 23
Hoffman 49
Owens 44
Scozzafava 7
NYC
Bloomberg 54
Thompson 46
CA 10
Garamendi 58
Harmer 42
World Series-
Yankees over Phillies in 6
Democrat in White House = Yankees win titles
VA-
McDonnell 57
Deeds 43
NJ-
Christie 46
Corzine 43
Daggett 8
others 3
NY 23
Hoffman 50
Owens 42
Scozzafava 8
Redo:
VA: McDonnell 64-36
Bolling 69-31
Cuccinelli 77-23
NJ: Christie 49-45-6
NYC: Bloomberg 63-37
NY: Hoffman 54-43-3
CA: Harmer 51-49
Luis says:
VA-
McDonnell 56
Deesds 41
NJ-
Christie 47
Corzine 45
NY 23
Hoffman 53
Owens 44
updated
only NY 23-rest are the same
Hoffman 51
Owens 41
Scovafazza 8
Virginia
McDonnell 57
Deesds 43
New Jersey
Christie 48
Corzine 45
Daggett 7
NY 23
Hoffman 52
Owens 43
Dede 5
California
Garamendi 53
Harmer 47
NYC
Bloomberg 55
Thompson 45
Other Races
Maine
Yes to gay marriage 51
No to gay marriage 49
Charlotte Mayor
Republican 50.5
Democrat 49.5
PA Supreme Court
Republican 51
Democrat 49
Virginia
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%
New Jersey
Corzine 46.5%
Christie 45.5%
Daggett 8%
New York
Hoffman 52%
Owens 44%
Scozzafava 4%
VA
(% of 2 party vote)
McD: 57%
Deeds: 43%
NJ:
Christie: 47%
Corzine: 44%
Daggett: 8%
NY-23:
Hoffman: 52%
Owens: 40%
Scozza the Hutt: 8%
CA-10:
Personification of Stupidity and Arrogance: 52%
Harmer: 48%
I don’t have time to venture reasonable guesses on the VA downballot races, but I say we take the Lt.Giv and AG easily by fifteen + each, and haul in nine seats in the assembly. In the NJ assembly, I’m shooting for a +6 pick up, just short of a majority, with the bulk of those seats coming in from south Jersey and Ocean county. No gains from Middlesex or up north (endangered Dems hold on).
If Christie breaks 50% (doubtful), all bets are off on the NJ assembly.