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NJ: Christie Leads By 1%Another poll to add to the New Jersey mash up from Monmouth University and Gannet. GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (Monmouth/Gannett) This poll was done October 28-30 among 1041 likely voters.
195 Responses to “NJ: Christie Leads By 1%” |
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Tuesday will be a watershed for Republicans and conservatives. If Corzine tries to steal the election, ordinary voters — both Republican and Independent — will demand real change: electoral honesty.
Christie has definitely turned the corner. Still tight but he will pull it off.
Corzine by 2 in the YouGov/Polimetrex poll
http://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/5336841216
in case you missed it, lisab just left her predictions.
One huge iceberg out there for Christie. The Daggett number. According to RAS and Survey, there are two and a half times more Democrats still supporting Daggett now than Republicans still sticking with Daggett.
In other words, Christie has already brought home almost all Republicans who had strayed to Daggett. Those Republicans are back home. There are a significant number of Demorats who are making up the Daggett pile of votes as of Friday’s polling. Will they stay with him on election day are at the last minute hold their nose and vote for Corzine who they clearly don’t like?
I believe the YouGovt poll is an internet poll for what it’s worth.
#5 Phil,
I think that Daggett Democrats stay home.
http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2009/11/01/ppps-tom-jensen-has-a-problem/
Marv, definitely a possibility. They certainly aren’t Corzine fans if they’ve held out this long.
Will the Obama campaigning bring them out?
Phil,
You’re right. Almost all the Daggett voters that still poll for Daggett are disaffected Dems. However, look at what the Daggett number is now! It’s almost what I predicted a while ago. Basically the influx of Christie voters that inflated Daggett’s numbers in October have now come home.
The remaining Daggett voters will either vote for an incumbant they despise or not vote. Political history strongly suggests that a large number simply won’t vote.
-Polaris
Here’s is Jensen’s write up as referenced by Red State.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/some-hard-numbers-in-virginia-and-new.html
“Maybe those numbers will improve some over the weekend- and Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine certainly aren’t the best candidates- but if that pattern continues on into next year Republicans will win back the House. Democratic voters need to wake up or the consequences will be serious in 2010.”
It’s that enthusiasm factor again. Like I said last year, the Dems had a truly historic tailwind and now actually have to do things (and it doesn’t help that Obama is turning out differently from what the public expected….although shame on the public because that info was there if you knew where to look).
Regardless, I fully expect partisan patterns to shift back (even snap back) into more normal modes and there may well be a republican enthusiasm advantage next time out.
Also in 2012 (which is looking a bit far ahead I admit), the map favors republians completely
-Polaris
I updated the prediction thread, Christi by 1/2 a percent, lol, race may not be called on election night.
#9 Phil,
I don’t think that Obama campaining for Corzine today will yield anything meaningful for either Obama or Corzine. The Jets have a home game today, the Giants play the Eagles right across the river from Camden where Obama will be, and the Yanks can go up 3-1 on the Phils tonight.
“However, look at what the Daggett number is now! It’s almost what I predicted a while ago. Basically the influx of Christie voters that inflated Daggett’s numbers in October have now come home.”
—
I agree that you said that, and there is evidence now to suggest it’s happened\happening. I’m encouraged that the dede drop out may help turn out in NY-23 both helping Hoffman, and dispiriting some Owens voters, I think it also spills over a little into folks in NJ.
FAIL:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/01/hard-hit-factory-towns-slow-relief-stimulus/
I updated the prediction thread, Christi by 1/2 a percent, lol, race may not be called on election night.
Comment by KnightHawk — November 1, 2009 @ 11:21
KH, I just read that they found a box of uncounted ballots for Corzine, in a Seattle warehouse.
Know what I mean?
“Will they stay with him on election day are at the last minute hold their nose and vote for Corzine who they clearly don’t like?”
—
Hopefully the majority of them will not bother, would you if you vote was really anti-corzine and would only help corzine win? I’d probably just sit on my arse assuming I really didn’t like daggett or want to vote for christi.
Can’t wait for the PPP polls tonight.
“Know what I mean?”
—
Kings County and D.Rossi rings a bell.
#20 I wouldn’t trust any poll done this weekend. I know that both Scott (Ras) and Jensen (PPP) say that they can do Halloween accurately but I have my doubts…and at least both of them are honest enough to do callbacks (an essential first step to keep your sample from getting corrupted). I somehow doubt that others (like Quinn) will be so careful.
-Polaris
From that article HD.. “”What work? Where?” , reminds me of EPH comments.
Course the WH would label this “not real news” cause it’s on Fox’s site, but funny enough it’s an AP piece.
#21 King Co (Seattle) is merely working hard to make sure that everyone can exercise their franchise to vote. We can’t permit the porcess to discrimate against dead people, duplicate people, cats, dogs, goldfish, etc, now can we?
(sarc)
-Polaris
Polaris,
I assume you mean by the 2012 map “favoring the Republicans” you are talking about the number of senate seats Dems have to defend. I know you don’t think the electoral college map looks good. Dems have quite a lock on that – although I believe we will win back Indiana, NC, and (I’ll go out on a limb here) Florida.
Still not nearly enough.
I can’t wait for Carville-Greenberg’s poll tonight or in the morning. Ought to be interesting.
{ot}
Been the weekend of drop outs, Abdullah dropped out the re-race in Afghanistan. Should we count on the president using this little fact to even further delay any GD decision on this matter? Come on mr. president I dare you announce your decision before November 3rd.
#24, not to worry I had my mom in NJ register her dog and her cat, the ballots have already been sent in via the updated mail-in ballot system.
That’s 3 for Christi.
This is not enough for Christie. It does not put him outside of the MOF. Even Polaris would agree that 1% is a reasobable MOF. Further, if it goes to the courts in Jersey, we lose.
The decisison may come in mid November.
Before then, he has to get Ms. MEanthing a $600 pair of sneakers; a few more five star restaurants in NY; a swing to the west Coast (to plug up traffic); etc.
MD- I have chartering a plane to your house for dinner ok???
Knight,
I honestly think Obama is going to annouce a staged pull out from Afghanistan, which will prove to be an absolute disaster. The masters who control him want us out. That is why he is waiting. He has no intention of increasing troop levels. Why do you think we are going to pay the Taliban to be nice?
Tina,
You would always be welcome in my house. Most of the people on this site would be very welcome, even some of the Dems.
Funny, how our ratio of trolls has drastically decreased as the elections come upon us.
MD, even Obama is not that stupid.
#29 MD,
Why do you presume that if NJ goes to the courts that we would necessarily lose? Christie is an expert in the judicial system and knows how to navigate through it at least as well as the Corzine/Obama leftie lawyers.
If I were Christi I’d have the lawyers ready, willing, and on-site in every county courthouse just waiting for a call come Tuesday.
#25 I was referring to the Senate Map AND to the districts (as of right now….that could change in 2010) that are McCain districts with a D-congressman.
However, I think you are unduly pessistic about the 2012 electoral college map. Remember that Obama got a huge Dem tailwind and a huge enthusiasm gap and a historic influx of “new” voters. Of these (if things remain the way they are now or get worse), most of this influx of enthusiastic new voters will be gone. Obama will get the monothlic 95-5 AA vote and a large turnout there (and should be accounted for from the top), but otherwise I expect a more normal partisan dynamic to reassert itself.
1. States that flip back to red for sure:
North Carolina, Indiana, Florida.
These are states that Obama BARELY won when he had everyting working in his favor against a weak GOP ticket. Odds are long that he wins them again.
2. States that likely flip back to red:
Virginia, Nevada
Given the state of the VA races, I am almost tempted to put VA in the first category but there has been a strongly favorable long term demographic shift (for the Dems) in NOVA. Still I’d be very suprised if Obama keeps this state in 2012. Given Reid and Obama not playing well in Nevada, I think this flips as well but am not certain.
3. States that will be in play and IMHO will lean red. Ohio, MO (which Mac kept albeit barely).
4. States that will be in play and IMHO will lean Blue. Penn (I expect a conservative pushback in Penn but it prob won’t be enough), IA, WI, Colorado (Demographic shift has been extreme), New Mexico (same as Colorado).
I think that this electoral map is a lot more winnable than you think Phil.
-Polaris
Yeah, but he can nothing about liberal hack judges that will make the decision.
EPH is of course welcome but he has a 15 beer a day limit. That will be strictly enforced. He will not be allowed more than that but he will have to drink 15 everyday, no less.
Marv,
Your joking right? Have you not seen what happens to R’s in recounts and through the court system? Frankly, we need Baker on hand to run that process. Maybe then Christie would have a shot. His experience in the system does not matter a whit, unfortunately.
“That is why he is waiting.”
—
I totally disagree that is necessarily why, I think it’s because announcing it no-matter what it is, can’t help him in NY\NJ\VA, only hurt. If he goes with the McC plan he annoys the left and they don’t show up, if he goes with something else he pisses off most the rest of the counrty and they make an extra effort to come out. My guess is he’s going to do the worst thing possible which is half-ass it – some watered down version where McC is given 50-60% of what he says he needs, and screwed up version of the Vice-idiot’s thoughts.
If he wants to pull out, then pull out, I think it’s disastrous and had far reaching impact beyond that theater (watch iraq start to heat up again), but at least it would be a definitive decision.
Polaris,
I almost agree with you on 2012. My prediction, subject to change since it is so early, is that Obama wins narrowly.
I see FL, NC, NV and VA flipping. IN could be a problem because of Gary, IN and all the shenangans that now go on there during elections. CO is a strange state. If you look at it’s history, it should lean to the GOP but it is changing. IA allows itself to be bought by the ethanol swindle. It is going to be tought to flip that in 12.
If Obama wins in 12, then I predict a landslide victory for the GOP in 16. At this point, they will control everyting. Hopefully, they would do a better job than last time.
#37 – Not to mention red states are likely to pickup a couple electors post census – assuming of course acorn is not involved, a big IF.
Rememeber folks, is the NJ Supreme Court (Liberal partisan Ds) that MAKE the law.
#40 MD
NJ will have a much higher public profile than MN if this thing hits the judicial system and it will likely wind up in the Federal system where it will be 5-4 all over again. We’re getting way ahead of ourselves anyway. A Christie win at 47-44-7-2 would obviate any potential adverse rulings by an Obama appointed Judge Soprano.
Knight,
While I didn’t get into that detail, I agree with you that he is waiting due to the elections and you may be right in your “half assed” theory. That might be worse than an actual pull out.
We shall see.
is =its
FNC already had a report about Drat Fraud over absentee ballots this am. I did not catch it, but be beware:
Corzine – has the courts
Corzine has the fraud
Corzine has the union thugs.
Colorado and NM gone for the reasons you state.
Denver and the surrounding suburbs are a disaster for the GOP.
I’m not nearly as optimistic about Va. A monolithic 20% of the electorate will be black (98-2 in 08 exits). Combine that with the huge influx of liberal govt bureaucrats in NOVA that keeps us from getting the 65% of the white vote statewide needed to win.
2009 is one thing – lousy Dem candidate, great GOP candidate, black vote down to 15% of the electorate, hope and change dimwits not turning out because Mr Cool isn’t on the ballot…
I also note this about Obama (and it’s likely costing him even MORE support with the military and military leadership…not that he had a lot to begin with).
In military situations, what Obama is doing is about the worst possible thing you can do (and I was taught this in leadership school). When you are in charge, and there is a critical situation with no good apparent solution it is far, FAR more important to make a decision quickly than it is to take your time and make the “right” decision.
A wrong decision made aggressively can be finessed or even turned to your advantage. Dithering, however, makes those under you lose confidence in ALL your decisions and likely makes the situation worse (and in many cases so bad that no good possible outcome remains).
In short, it is better to make a strong command decision even if it’s wrong than it is to dither.
Well…we all know what leadership school Obama went to….
-Polaris
if john thune is the nominee, iowa flips to the republican
party. he supports ethanol!
only john thune can defeat obama in 2012!
Well I am off to do some shopping. I wil be here a lot tomorrow, but very little on Tuesday.
Do not forget that the Obumbler could announe the surge and the un-msm will still support it. Anyway, it is obvious that his strategy for Afghanistan failed. He owns this debacle.
I agree Corzine has the courts for the most part, but Christi also has contacts and friends there due to his job, so he’s may have at least got a fighting chance, in certain counties though you right it’s a nearly impossible juggernaut Tina.
Easy guess is the next round of polls where Christie was behind (Quin, DC) will show him closing, but still behind. The pollsters can save face a little by saying things were trending his way, all the while propping up their preferred candidate as long as possible!! What happened to that +10 pt Strat. Vision poll anyway?
FWIW, Ocean County GOP all out of lawn signs and bumper stickers for Christie – great sign for enthusiasm. Corzine signs are everywhere like spam, only on medians with very very few actually on someone’s property. I commute across 3 counties to work every day (Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex – 1 red, 1 lean-red and 1 blue) and have yet to see a single Corzine bumper sticker while Christie’s are definitely out there (as well as the “Dump Corzine” stickers Lonegan sent out). Now, I don’t have any sense of what the Newark/Camden areas are like right now but our side is definitely fired up in one of the redder parts of the state.
Two days ’til we take back NJ!
We might have an outside chance in 2012 with a great candidate (although the MSM will waste no time Palinizing him). Outside of a John Thune I don’t know who that would be. Thune will wait until 2016.
You’re talking about Obama with a billion bucks, the MSM in his hip…
It will be much closer as Bush memory fades. Say we lose by 4 million instead of 10 million – something like that.
Important thing is to sweep the 2010 elections.
I am confident about VA. Obama won VA but it wasn’t because of the AA vote or even the NOVA demographic shift. It was because Indies deserted McCain in droves there.
That’s not going to happen in 2012. Remember that Deeds is losing by double-digits in VA. Obama won’t lose VA by double-digits, but I do think he will lose.
Gary Indiana will be a problem, but at his high water mark WITH all the problems in Gary, Obama was only able to get a win here by half a percent. No way this happens in 2012. I am certain Indiana goes back to it’s usual red in 2012 even if Obama wins big otherwise in 2012.
-Polaris
Why is Phil always so pessimistic? Get a life buddy.
#55 Sure Obama will have big money, Phil, but so will the GOP nominee. That’s because we now know better than to take public financing ever again.
-Polaris
MD, I’m not sure IN should be a problem. Obama will lose plenty of votes outside Gary; exit polls already showed him losing every age category except 18-29…which was supposedly 19% of the electorate this time around. Will Lugar be retiring?
I have one jerkoff. And if you read my posts you’d see I’ve been extremely optimistic about 2010.
#49.. We are seeing either analysis paralysis, or pure politics or likely a combo of both right now. While not universally true, I’ll take a ‘good’ plan today, over a ‘perfect plan’ some time in the future.
Odd the president has said he’s uncomfortable with the term “victory”, yet it is he who has constantly used the term “we one” when trying to get something he wants. hmm.
Do you of you folks know if there are polls scheduled to be released today?
Polaris, you are correct about indies in Va – data indicates they are moving in mass toward GOP in just about every poll nationally – may be enough in Va. Don’t know.
I put up my predictions a little while ago, FWIW.
“Do you of you folks know if there are polls scheduled to be released today?”
—
I can jimmy up another if you really want? Though some people didn’t get the joke immediately last time I did that.
My sources say we are due for a Christian Family poll.
The red leaning states are going to pick up more congressional seats after the 2010 Census. The northeast and upper midwest will lose seats and California and the southeast and southwest will pick these seats up. A net advantage to the Republicans.
The electoral college is based on the number of congressional and senate seats a state has. So the 2012 Presidential map should be 8-10 votes more favorable to the Republicans. So this would help off set the loss of Colorado.
Gil
For Immediate release:
NJ Whitewater Rafting Association Poll
C.Christi 46%
J.Corzine 42%
C.Daggett 11%
J.Frost 1%
Poll was conducted October 27th – October 30th, sample consisted of 365 fake but accurate in person interview of members of the association or their employees, 16 cats, 12 dogs, and 6 interviews of deceased persons via wigi board were also included in the sample for a total of 399 responses. Partisan weight was D:37/R:29/I:34.
I don’t know if the fraud issue is going to affect things in Jersey guys. The Dems are not enthused at all about Corzine. Indies favor Christie by at least 2 to 1. Christie had a 3-4 point lead via RAS and PPP(D) prior to the Imus interview and the toll road gaffe creating a lot of strong momentum for Christie at the right time. This was a worst case scenario for Corzine with something out of the blue nailing him. Christie takes this by 3-5.
According to the NY Daily News, Scozzafava is quietly telling her supporters to vote for Hoffman, contrary to what I saw posted earlier on HHR.
57
From what I have read phil has been quite upbeat compared to a few weeks ago when he predicted Obama as ruler for life. Hey may have even thrown away his tinfoil hat, or at least hid it in the closet. You never know when the aliens may come…
#70 WHOOPS!! I meant Scozza is telling her supporters to vote for Owens. I need caffeine now.
#68 KnightHawk,
Your fake but accurate poll will probably be quite close to the actual result in NJ. I’m still waiting for Eph to tell us what his sources have found out.
The White House has allowed itself to get into a fight with Rush.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/1109/Axelrod_fires_back_at_Limbaugh.html?showall
For immediate release:
NJ American College of Emergency Physicians Poll
J.Corzine 45%
C.Christi 36%
C.Daggett 12%
B.Obama 4%
M.Popsicle 2%
Surveys conducted by waiting around in emergency rooms of 12 NJ hospitals from October 28th through October 31st and polling 890 adult patients verbally, only patients clearly in pain and on pain medication were sampled. Partisan self identification D:47% R:19% I:30% unknown:4%. This organization is not to be confused with the real NJ-ACoEP. Note: 10 patients sampled who have since died have been included in the sample due to mail-in ballots and the likely heavy turnout of dead voters.
Friends,
Any more “tweets” from PPP?
Frank
The White is receiving return fire from a “website” (of all things). The White House fighting with a web site would be comical, if it weren’t so pathetic.
http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/press/159486/article.html
“I meant Scozza is telling her supporters to vote for Owens.”
—
Good, she can also risk loose her day job now, that’s one smart cookie.
She suspended her campaign not because she was being nice, she had no money left, no support, and was going to take 3rd no matter what she did.
#74 – Anything to distract people from looking at the White House.
Frank,
How about posting your RAS updates here again?
we have to take Skippy out in ‘12 or he will create an emergency to take advantage of and we’ll never be rid of.
Peole waiting for Thune or whomever in 2016 are dismissing what kind of nutcase this guy really is. If he’s re-elected, he’ll be able to get more of his agenda and marxist structures in place.
“Limbaugh called Obama “immature, inexperienced,” “narcissistic,” and “a child,” on “Fox News Sunday.”
—
Haha DEAD ON BALLS accurate.
“He also accused President Barack Obama of “destroying” the economy, pursuing an “unconstitutional” health care reform plan, and “not caring” about the war in Afghanistan, in the Fox interview.
“It’s no surprise that Rush Limbaugh espouses the views that he espouses,” said Axelrod. “He’s marketing the outrageous and he does very well with it.””
—
Yes Axel your president’s activities,policies, and personality are outrageous, your boy’s making Rush’s job easy.
“Peole waiting for Thune or whomever in 2016 ”
—
Those mentioning Thune have not been doing so in the context of 2016 from what I’ve seen, at least here i’ve seen him mentioned for the dark horse of 2012. Thune’s first job though is get reelected in 2010, you may contribute here if so inclined.
WH pressuring for DeDe endorsement of Owens
NY-23 is a conservativ district. Hoffman is the clear favorite.
GO YANKS! Big win yesterday, gutsy move by Joe to go with three starters. That means each starting pitcher from here on out will be working on short rest. Advantage Phillies .. Yanks bats must deliver as the pitching will struggle
I’m not sure Dede’s “endorsement” is necessarily a good thing.
“NJ American College of Emergency Physicians Poll
J.Corzine 45%
C.Christi 36%
C.Daggett 12%
B.Obama 4%
M.Popsicle 2%”
Sadly I think M. Popsicle would be do a better job as NJ Guv than any of the other four people.
“NJ Whitewater”
If they are connected to the Arkansas Whitewater Association I am sure they are completely above board.
NJ’s Governor’s Race: Candidate Plays Loose With Facts?
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=164760653434
Despite what candidate Chris Daggett is claiming, I have never contacted him or his campaign. I have never asked him to drop out of the NJ Governor’s race. Now, if a politician is going to play loose with facts like this, the electorate needs to know it.
So, to the good people of New Jersey, please know that Daggett’s claims are false. I’ve never even suggested he should drop out of the race. But, come to think of it…
- Sarah Palin
70 WHOOPS!! I meant Scozza is telling her supporters to vote for Owens. I need caffeine now.
~~~by phoenixrisen
THERE ONCE WAS A GORDO NAMED SCOZZAFAVA,
SHE CAMPAIGNED LOOKING LIKE A PLUMP GUAVA,
AN OVERSTUFFED RINO WAS SHE,
TRYING TO CON THE LIKES OF WE,
BUT WE WEREN’T BUYING HER HIGH PRICE JAVA.
.
I don’t think Dede will endorse Owens. Despite being demonized by conservatives, her voting record in the NY State Assembly is average for a NY Republican. If she does, she will prove the point of everyone who was against her. People who contributed to her will be really pissed. Even jason, who hates to be wrong, would have to upgrade her from liberal Republican to raving moonbat.
MoF Polling Inc:
Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
Daggett 12%
Breakdown of results:
Actual votes for Corzine: 33%
Imaginary votes for Corzine: 2%
Deceased votes for Corzine: 2%
Triple counted ballots for Corzine: 2%
Quadruple counted ballots for Corzine: 2%
Miscellaneous fraudulent Corzine votes: 2%
“Look what I found in my trunk!” ballots for Corzine: 2%
Christie: 43%
Actual Daggett ballots: 6%
Christie ballots tallied for Daggett: 6%
#92 MFG
Link please.
“Gary Indiana will be a problem, but at his high water mark WITH all the problems in Gary, Obama was only able to get a win here by half a percent. No way this happens in 2012. I am certain Indiana goes back to it’s usual red in 2012 even if Obama wins big otherwise in 2012.”
Gary is only 99,000 people. It is about one tenth of Northwest Indiana, “Da Region,” and everything south of U.S. 30 is GOP, including Valparaiso, Crown Point, LaPorte, etc. North of U.S. 30, many Republicans also live in Hammond and Chesterton.
+5 Christie
This poll exactly matched the democratic breakdown in 2008.
Ain’t happening.
+5 Christie
MoF Polling Inc doesn’t have a website; they operate from the back of a pick up truck in Trenton, I think…
From Jon Lerner, pollster for the Club for Growth:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/11/024843.php
“In case your readers are wondering, Scozzafava’s departure from the race clearly helps Hoffman. In our last poll for the Club for Growth (the one over last weekend, which was the first to identify the Hoffman surge), the partisan composition of Scozzafava voters was: 63 percent Republican; 29 percent Democrat; 8 percent Independent. I think Hoffman would have won the race anyway, but now he is strongly favored.”
Dede endorses Owens.
http://watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091101/NEWS09/911019992
Friends,
Watching “V” on the Sci Fi channel … and thinking of the President.
Frank
Frank,
Are you going to start posting the RAS numbers here?
#98 Brandon,
That probably won’t help Owens very much. Momentum is with Hoffman.
“Dede endorses Owens.”
—
Whats funny is all the morning programs today more or less said she endorsed Hoffman. lol
So what time will Jensen release his NY-23 poll tonight? We need to the NY-23 media to cover Jensen’s poll tomorrow so we can create an aura of inevitability.
I think they start putting them out at 10 PM.
Obama camp: Gives up on VA Gov and NY 23
http://thenextright.com/ironman/obama-camp-gives-up-on-va-gov-and-ny-23
Apparently Chris Daggett has claimed on a MSNBC interview that Sarah Palin asked him to drop out of the race.
Sje has made an official reponse and it is classic:
http://www.conservatives4palin.com/2009/11/sarah-palin-no-i-havent-asked-chris.html
PPP Twitter:
“So should I change the NY-23 horse race question AGAIN? Still expect Hoffman to win easily”
http://twitter.com/ppppolls
I bet those “Repbulicans” that endorsed Dede feel like fools this afternoon. Newt has lost all credibility. Endorsing a candidate that ended up endorsing the Democrat.
108,
I hope w/ see some humility and a change of ways.
I already laughed at one NRCC telemarketer. I wonder what the give/laugh ratio is nowadays.
“I bet those “Repbulicans” that endorsed Dede feel like fools this afternoon. Newt has lost all credibility.”
In his defense, and mine, I doubt he thought she would endorse a Democrat. I urged support for Dede while she was ahead in the polls for the sake of party unity. By endorsing a Dem she shows that she has no party unity and proves her critics right. She will never be accepted by the Dems and she is a pariah for Republicans. Welcome to oblivion.
Scozza is dead to us now.
The RNC might as well given the 900k to the Democrats. I hope it backfires. Is Hoffman still predicted to win?
Funny you mention V I just DL the orginal series the other day, getting a refresher to compare with the new series starting this or next week.
ahh my fav. V scene with the hot blond in her undies “boy you don’t look like an iguana”!
Scozza is dead to us now. – She already was, but now it’s kinda personal.
Jason save your breath! Explain next time!
You were the one who said “Hoffman can’t win”.
If conservative republicans think like you, the revolution will never begin!
Now you’re flip flopping like your buddy newt!
Just save it!
It was our resilience and “anybody but dede” attitude that got us this far! We are not weaklings who refuse to fight until the end for what we believe is right!!
How do you like her now Newt?
Fried, with a side of grits.
Scozza could have kept her yap shut at least and would have preserved some respect. Then, at some point, she maybe could have received an appointment to some political job. Now, she is nothing. And should get absolutely nothing from the GOP from now on. Absolutely nothing.
No. 108: What did you expect from old Newt? He divorced his first wife after learning she had cancer while he was having an affair with his soon to be second wife; then when the second wife years later was diagnosed in the initial stages of MS, he told her she wasn’t presidential wife material and ran off with a young bimbo intern who is now his third wife! I can hardly wait for wife no. four…
I don’t see the relevance to endorsing Dede, but okay.
“In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.”
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-ny-23-mess.html
Some fox-infobabe just now “If hoffman doesn’t win in NY-23, it spell doom for the gop in 2010 does it?”, said to some dude being interviewed.
UHH who wrote that question for her? Pure comedy.
Survey who is uglier”
Piglosi or Dede?
Can somebody tell me why Jensen is telling the voters that Scozzafava endorsed Owens??
Me thinks he desperately wants to reduce the margin for hoffman. Pathetic!
I outted Dede. If she did not drop out, she would have changed parties. Its too bad that some here did not see that.
Dede = Arlen Spectacle = the media con artists.
“Survey who is uglier
Piglosi or Dede?”
Halloween is over.
“Some fox-infobabe just now “If hoffman doesn’t win in NY-23, it spell doom for the gop in 2010 does it?”,
Actually this is now a must win for Hoffman. The media gloating if
he loses would be unbearable.
Tinareports poll:
Who is uglier – Dede or Piglosi?
Dede – 20%
Piglosi – 20%
Both equally – 55%
Unsure/Decline to state – 5%
***It should be noted that the respondents in SF called the Polling Authority and wanted the pollster arrested, tried, and convicted of “hte speech.”
“Hey Jack the extremist professor”
I dont need to explain anything, least of which to a moron like you.
Daggett are Dede are DNC plants imo.
#125 Personality or appearance?
121. Mary our Queen you seem like a moralist, and quite up to date on Newt’s failings as a husband years ago. How does your moral compass register about the current ethical and criminal lapses of Charlie Rangel, Christopher Dodds, Jack Murtha, among many others?
WaPo says Dede endorses Owns (D).
What a disaster this has been, hand delivered from the NY GOP and the RNC.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/ny-23-scozzafava-endorses-owen.html?wprss=thefix
#129 – I’m talking reality though. lol
No one cares who DeDe endorses except the wingnuts over at Kos.
People don’t vote on the basis of endorsements.
Feeling smart today, Newt?
The endorsements mean zilch at this stage of the game. Hoffman wins as the conservatives come out in a red district.
A day or two before election day I agree they don’t really matter, week’s prior they can help.
Phil, remember when Newt did this about a year ago:
http://fora.tv/2005/07/21/Bipartisan_Health_Care_Reform_with_Hillary_Clinton_and_Newt_Gingrich
Newt is a sell-out to conservative principles. He is part of the beltway bubble – the R establishment.
“Feeling smart today, Newt?”
—
Massive egg on the face, particularly because he ran around this week defending his position and to a lessor extent her in general.
Yeah since mid-07 he’s gone real wobbly, had spurts of it prior to that, but since has been going rouge (in the wrong direction) more often.
Not only did he run around defending his position, he said Palin and Armey were against the Tenth Amendment — on FOX News.
Haley 2012.
I was one of those Republicans who thought that it was wisest to support Dede once the local Republican apparatus had supported her. I figured they must know more about the area than I did. However, following her endorsement of the Democrat, I realize how wrong I was. I am embarrassed that I wrote posts supporting her candidacy. I stand corrected. She should be ashamed of herself, calling herself a Republican yesterday and coming out today for the candidate of Pelosi.
I would still rather be Hoffman then Owen right now. Its liberal versus democrat in 2009 with the liberal-Rep still on the ballot for those who still love her (very few but she may approach Daggett level).
There’s always a pox on pox both houses vote out there and in NY Hoffman gets it plus the conservative voters & GOP types
Yeah I saw that interview Karl, it was a total wtf moment, couple different ways he could have played it and he tries to make a 10th amendment argument about it? I actually rewound the tivo thinking I some how missed something.
Isnt about time for Mchugh to endorse Hoffman? Isnt it a no-brainer at this point?
“Yeah I saw that interview Karl, it was a total wtf moment, couple different ways he could have played it and he tries to make a 10th amendment argument about it? I actually rewound the tivo thinking I some how missed something.”
**** Newt!
We got rid of him 10 years ago, and like a case of the shingles, he has returned.
jason, i have no time for kossack esque petty insult. You supported a candidate who just endorsed a democrat!. How disingenious! Just a reminder that nt everyone with a R next to their name is a republican. take note.
I for one am all in favor of bi-partisan health reform. I do not have use anymore for Newt but healthcare and health insurance can be greatly and easily improved. So do not just block out the idea that health insurance and health care cannot be improved.
1. Policies can be offered across state lines and yes like insurance companies write policies that cater to the young and healthy.
2. One way to help the young and healthy is MSA or some other form of health insurance. Let the young get the deduction now and spend on healthcare later.
3. offer a variety of tax credits to employers who provide insurance instead of punishing those who do not offer health insurance. You want employers to offer insurance reward them-do not punish them.
4. Can you tort reform-lets get it on.
5. Here’s one specific area of tort reform and malpratice insurance help. There are many community based volunteer low income health clinics in the USA. Many of them are faith based. Doctors who semi-retired or those who are past the age where they are wanting a 50 hour a week practice would love to donate time to these clinics. Yet the clinic or the Doctor must fork over huge premiums to serve in these clinics. How about calling off the ambulance chasing lawyers when Doctors donate their time to serve the poor and needy?? You want healthcare, Congressman Grayson, thousands of doctors are ready to serve for no pay but are frightened of John Edwards clones.
This is the real healthcare tragedy that the democrats are only wanting to support a one size fit alls healthcare scam.
150 – jack, as someone who has argued with jason on more than one occasion, let me say that you are out of line. He is a long time poster, states his reasons for why he says what he does. Very few people here thought that Dede would pull the stunt that she did, although more than a few were concerned about her switching parties if elected. jason said all along that once Hoffman was ahead then he would have his support but until then he would support the party.
For someone who has only been posting here a couple of weeks, you should do a better job of getting to know the people in the community before coming down on them. You may notice that no one else is doing it to the degree that you are.
Folks,
In my opinion, one of the most important numbers in this poll is Christie at 51-29 with Independents. Indies could be the decisive group in this election. Coupled with the apparent blase attitude by Democrats and the noticeable enthusiasm of Republicans, I think that a Christie win at 47-44-7-2 is looking like a pretty safe estimate.
Anyone else have anything new on this race?
Nothing Marv. Polls should be out tomorrow. PPP indicated a chance they may release their poll late tonight.
Hoffman should be OK.
knova. point taken. apologies to jason too.
156- you are a good man. welcome to the neighborhood
Jack
I like your posts and respect your point of view so keep posting.
I certainly admit to be a very late supporter of Hoffman. I am capital “R” guy. That being said here in TN we have the luxury of fretting of Lamar Alexander as a moderate. He has been an absolute solid conservative in his voting record. In the last 7 years there’s maybe one vote a year that I would question Lamar for.
I might add that if we had 100 senators with lifetime ACU ratings of 80 what a different world we would live in.
I
The Intrade number for Hoffman is 50-50 right now. It looks like the Dede endorsement spooked the traders. I think someone could make big money right now buying Hoffman contracts. They better hurry up and trade, though, because if PPP(D) comes out tonight with a big Hoffman number, the Intrade number will go up quickly.
From PPP(D) earlier today:
“In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.”
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
Jason was wrong- but sowhat- he said he would go with Hoffman if he passed Dede in the polls. Hoffman passed her and he jumped on board. He has admitted he was wrong about her.
I want to know why the hell McHugh has not come out and endorsed Hoffman. It seems strange to me.
Perhaps McHugh likes the POLITICAL APPOINTMENT that has currently.
David, Jack, Phil, Mary, Karl, and especially Tina:
You all are SO wrong about Newt Gingrich! He is NOT a “RINO” and not a sell-out! He is still a very solid conservative leader, and perhaps the smartest thinker we have. He is far more intelligent than entertainers like Glenn Beck, and far more reliable. In NY23, Newt was just a bit short-sighted in his endorsement of Dede Scozzafava. He was attempting to be a Reagen “Big Tent” Republican, and he (initially) saw Hoffman as a spoiler who would enable Nancy Pelosi to gain one more supporting member in Congress. In Newt’s defense, hardly anyone could have foreseen what Doug Hoffman has done!
Those of you who are now viciously criticizing Newt — YOU are the real traitors! You folks would criticize Ronald Reagan today for his “Big Tent” philosophy. Grow up!
That’s a big tent. More like an open barn.
#163 AIN,
President Reagan’s “big tent” philosphy involved convincing moderates and others to become conervatives and thus expand the number of conservatives in the “big tent.”
YOU are the real traitors!
That is pretty strong. Those traitors ARE part of the big tent. I don’t think that their vilifying Newt is based soley on his endorsement of Dede. It might have to do with supporting HC, Craap and Tax and several of the other things that he would not have supported in 1994.
165 – I disagree with you somewhat on what Reagan might have meany by thr “big tent.” Most people’s political beliefs are pretty much written in stone by the time that they are young adults. I don’t think that we are going to magically turn moderates into conservative. What I always thought that Reagan meant by the big tent was to find common ground with the important issues (economic, smaller government) to both moderates and conservatives, then convince them that those issues were best addressed by the GOP.
So we’re the traitors. Hmmm. I’d think DeDe proved today who the traitor is. Look up the word “traitor” in the dictionary and you’ll see a picture of her ugly mug.
Marv,
Hoffman goes back up to 60-65% after PPP releases its poll in three hours. Let’s hope Jensen does the honorable thing and releases it tonight instead of burying it until tomorrow morning.
Why are your numbers in NY-23 so different from Siena and Research 2000?
We’re getting a lot of that today.
Two main reasons:
-We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing. Research 2000 had Hoffman leading 41-34 with GOP voters. Siena had it at 50-29. We find it at 66-17 so far.
-We are anticipating a much more GOP friendly electorate than the other two polls. Siena found Obama’s favorability in the district at 59%. Research 2000 had it at 50%. So far we find Obama’s approval rating with likely voters at 39%. We’re finding an electorate that voted 50-43 for John McCain in comparison to last fall’s narrow Obama victory in the district. That drop off in Democratic voters is consistent with what we’re finding in much of our 2009 polling but obviously we won’t know if we were right or not until Tuesday.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/ny-23.html
Looks like PPP sees a shitstorm coming on Tuesday that the other pollsters are missing.
Perhaps McHugh likes the POLITICAL APPOINTMENT that has currently.
Comment by knova — November 1, 2009 @ 6:25 pm
Would he really lose the appointment for Endorsing someone in his own party?? That would make Obama look like a fool IMO
See this is the funny thing about PPP. If it looks OBVIOUS to them that the Dem will lose, their polling drops all bias and, when the Dem is going down in flames, the language changes to “blowout”- seems like the only thing they like less than Republicans are Democratic candidates that lose…
PPP is run by partisans. They like to be right on election day however – and generally have been.
Major Garrett claims that the White House has conceded that they will likely lose NY-23
#173… then things look good for Tuesday. If PPP is saying all this, we might be in for a surprisingly big blowout win up and down the East Coast. that CA house seat would be icing on the cake though.
I just read that Scozza endorsed the Dems. Now that’s a RINO!!!!!!!
I’m very interested in what PPP has to say about NJ. They’ve been VERY quiet about that one this weekend.
I take that as a good sign.
Drudge has an interesting news headline:
“Corzine campaign staffer arrested on drug charges”
163 – If Newt’s the best thinker the GOP has they may be in real trouble, see #166, I used to think very highly of the man in the political arena, now after the last couple years, not so much. If he can’t take some deserved criticism he should get out of the game. As for not being able to for see this playing out, how is it so many here could? I don’t even mean de-de dropping out, so many could see her true nature and the preference to not support such a pure rino candidate even if it meant losing.
Jason, that headlines been up for a day or so, don’t know that it really matters, course it would be leading the nightly news if it was a Christi staffer.
Newt is the past. Forget about him.
Folks,
By my “YOU are the traitors” remark, I’m referring to your quickness to form a circular firing squad at someone like Newt Gingrich, simply because he made a mistake on Dede. His endorsement of her was understandable — but wrong. He has conceded that, in that he too has now endorsed Hoffman. One problem I have with you Newt critics is that some of you are the same ones who “get your panties bunched up” whenever that idiot Glenn Beck is criticized! Beck is the real nut, not Newt. He’s the one who said McCain would be a worse president than our current socialist, Obama. Newt has never said such a dumb thing.
#177. I agree, their quietness definitely smells like good news for us.
No. 34: I never slept with any of the guys you listed, only Newt…
176..what I have been saying all along. Remember she shopped parties to see which she wanted, and never was committed fully to the GOP.
I agree about Newt. His time has passed.
You’re wrong about Newt…his time has not passed. He can still get it up…
I am glad we are on the same side now Jason. I wont flame you since at least there was thought behind your endorsement.
I doubt there would such a firing squad around the man if there weren’t other factors beyond this most recent one. I’ve yet to see him simply admit that he made a mistake by not examining the record before giving an endorsement. Newt has his own share of stupid quotes, probably not a good idea to bring them up.
btw
DeDe ex-campaign manager just came out for Hoffman I’m told.
Should be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
New thread above.
Palin is now the slight favorite on the 2012 intrade market.
Jesus there is a 2012 market already?
Of course:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=2012
AIN, I believe in the big tent, but the R party does not need sell outs. Its what newt has done over time, not just his recent miscues.
PPP poll has Christie up 6 up on their site now