NJ: Christie Opens Up Lead Over Corzine
And here is the other poll everyone was waiting for tonight from Public Policy Polling.
GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (PPP)
Chris Christie (R) 47%
Jon Corzine (D-inc) 41%
Chris Daggett (I) 11%
This poll was done October 31-November 1 among 994 likely voters.
I am going to bed and won’t be awake for the Virginia poll release that is supposed to come out at 1 am. I am sure tomorrow we will be getting a slew of final polls from just about everyone who is willing to stick their polling credibility on the line. It should be an interesting day and night leading into the fun on Tuesday.
First!!
And I am one happy conservative right now! Sorry if I can’t contain my excitement. I thought the gaffe and the Imus interview would create some momentum for Christie and it looks like it has. However, this is Jersey but this might be just impossible now for Corzine and his cronies.
Wow, just wow. That’s all I can say right now.
Thank “you know who !!!”
Frank
PS
Good night.
So much for Hussein coming to NJ today, ay?
Well, it’s Jersey but Polaris has been very consistent about this race and he and PPP are in alignment.
Ok Polaris. What do you think our friend Carville and Greenberg have for us tomorrow? Do they continue to go all in for Corzine OR do they release some squishy tie? Another Corzine +5 job?
MD,
You promised that you wouldn’t tease Polaris anymore about his completely screwing up the Perot number in 1992. Perot actually got 18.9% of the vote.
MD,
I aint staying up for extra innings tonight my man!!!
And our friends at Quinn – PPP has the electorate at D + 8. Quinn has it at D + 15.
Which is it going to be?
What happened to that Gallup NJ poll?
Pedro Feliz ties the ballgame
Siena has a NY-23 poll out in the morning.
It’s fine (but I will say that the Perot error thing is starting to get old especially since I admitted I was wrong almost immediately).
-Polaris
#12 Dammit. Can I get a “retaliation poll” Eph?
How many retaliation polls are coming out tomorrow? Carville will have one for certain.
Phil,
Given the mood of the nation and given how unpopular (and even despised) Corzine is as a governor in NJ I can promise you, thyat the partisan split won’t be D+15 (that’s a 2006/8 high water mark). It might not be D+8 although that is what I am expecting, but it won’t be anywhere close to D+15.
-Polaris
TB, it will be useless. My guess is RAS has Christie up 4-6 Monday and Tuesday. This one might be over.
Polaris — D+10…at the MOST.
RAS will be out tomorrow. If Christie is up 3 or 4 I’m going to be feeling pretty good. I really expect Carville to come up with another Corzine +4 or 5 number.
Look for a NYT hack poll as well.
At least the Washington Post has given up on Deeds – no more polls from them.
Also in this poll, Republicans lead by 6 on the Assembly generic ballot.
If PPP nails these elections I might have to start paying more attention to them (final poll only). No pollster gets credibility in my book until they can call a Dem leaning election cycle and a Rep leaning election cycle. Anyone can look brilliant when you team is winning i.e PPP state and Nate, but can you have the proper analysis when the other team wins. It is already obvious Silver is a fraud (we all figured he was, but this cycle will give us the proof), the jury is still out on PPP. I still don’t trust them a few weeks out before the election as of yet, based off the analysis given both before, during and after a poll.
Seniors support Christie 54-37 in this poll. Brandon, isn’t that a major shift from prior polls?
You are all just jealous of Carville and Greenberg. They have perfected the art of surveying the graveyards of Bergen County, and include that population in a sample is key to predicting actual returns and turnout.
BTW, this is another of the endless number of polls showing Dems getting smoked among independents. It’s getting to the point that the indy numbers are a given in each and every race.
Has anyone seen any crosstabs for how the obese are leaning in NJ?
#22. Not sure to be honest. I really don’t pay attention to those because the MOE of the subsamples is usually very large.
#24 It’s a constant pattern this year which is telling me that there are strong GOP tailwinds this year. If the Indy votes continues along this path, expect strong GOP tailwinds in the 2010 races as well.
-Polaris
#27 cont I should say it’s a constant nationwide pattern (i.e. Indies shifting strongly to the GOP).
-Polaris
Brad Lidge was just smoked.
Bye bye Phillies. Damon’s at-bat and great baserunning creates opportunity and the Yanks capitalize. Wow.
Lidge is going to be run out of town. Bank on it.
I knew Lidge would blow it! Now tomorrow night’s game will be a funeral.
Brandon, I really meant to ask whether something happened in the last couple days that you thought would cause a shift among seniors (or women) in NJ. (Either would be different from the most recent polls and would probably finish off Corzine.)
Any guesses on what Siena will show tomorrow? They shouldn’t embarrass themselves by finding Obama at 59% again in the district.
The GOP lost indies in 2006 by 17 or 18 points according to the CNN exit polls.
Tonight alone we have PPP telling us Hoffman is up 22, Christie up 23, and in PPP’s last Virginia poll McDonnell was up 59-34 (25).
You can do the math on what that kind of swing does in 2010.
I think the Phillies are having a Scozzafava moment….
-Polaris
Do you know why more seniors are supporting Christie? It is because Obama campaigned for Corzine. Obamacare reduces the care given to seniors.
Someone made the term “death panels” a household term?
Who? None other than Mrs. Sarah Palin. She has has an effect on this ace!
#33. Nothing in particular that I know of.
Yep, resigning as Gov of AK and backing a minor conservative candidate at the expense of an establishment republican have completely ruined Palin’s standing in the GOP.
Yep.
-Polaris
Forgive my typing. I am in a Brad Lidge induced depression. Maybe Dede will share some of her Zanax with me.
SUSA is out tomorrow with their NJ poll.
I am going to have 4 shots of Jack and go to bed.
On-line tears flowing.
#41 SUSA over Halloween? This ought to be entertaining. You have to be very careful with Halloween polling and SUSA is not a very caeful pollster.
-Polaris
MD,
It could be worse. You could be a Tampa Bay Bucs fan.
-Polaris
True Polaris. There is no cheering me up though.
Good night – sniff, sniff.
First memory of Brad Lidge that I have was in 2005. Astros up two in the top of the ninth. Two on and Lidge hangs a fat 3-2 slider to Pujols who launched a moonshot that hit the rail tracks. What I remembered most is a little boy sitting in the front row standing and when Pujols hit it he looked and sat down with his mother covering her mouth as they watched the ball sail out.
This world series is basically over.
-Polaris
Anyone have a read on if the indy pool is the same as last election? I have to think there are more Conservatives in the indie pool since there is a bunch of them fed up with the Republican Party. I don’t think there are anywhere near the number to shift the indie number this much though, but I wonder if it is statistically significant. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Here is something that will cheer up the Phillies’ fans. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeFHnAffr0I&feature=related
RAS shows the indy number hasn’t changed much at all and he polls Party ID every month.
This poll is great news! Definitely outside the MoF
Trifecta on Tuesday…???
Hey, I had to watch my Tigers blow the Central Division title this year. Don’t worry MD and the other Phillies’ fans. The Phillies will come back…next year.
#49 That’s the Jensen hypothesis, but even then it would indicate a strong GOP tailwind.
Honestly, I think the effect is overstated. I think what happened instead is you had truly historic pro-Dem events happened politically that warped the partisan landscape for a while, and like a sheet of rubber it is now bouncing back especially since those that benefitted have insisted on completely mistreading what was a one-time confluence of events as a long term fundamental mandate.
The Dems are not the first to make that mistake either.
The GOP made the same mistake (in hindsight) after the effects of 9/11 which proved to be a one-time drastic event that stretched the political landscape in favor of the GOP for a couple of years….but the GOP misread it as a long term fundamental mandate.
In both cases the party that benefited overreached (with Dems it always seems to be healthcare and with the GOP it’s always ‘life’ issues….see Schiavo).
-Polaris
#51 Good work Phil and that seems to confirm my suspicions. Republicans didn’t (for the most part) defect to become Indies…they stopped or reduced their participation in the face of a Democratic headwind….which has now changed.
-Polaris
Daggett admits to being a liar:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2009/11/palin-smacks-new-jerseys-daggett-for-false-drop-out-claim.html
I am curious to see the PPP numbers for VA now, the analysis seems just plain wrong. “The truth is if the same set of voters who showed up in 2008 showed up next month Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine would both win. But of course that’s not going to happen.”
I find that very unlikely, people would not change their votes with Obama on the ballot, so is PPP really claiming that enough people are sitting home that would give Deeds and extra 10%+ at the polls?
+6 hmm, wow.
Basically, that is exactly what he’s claiming and he’s right. Without Obama on the ballot the black vote is down along with the hope and change 20 something moron vote. We first saw that phenomenon in the Georgia senate runoff a month after the general election. However, he needs to couple that with what is happening with indies. They’ve undergone a huge flip.
Hey Folks,
I’d like to bring up CA 10. Let’s assume that the mood of the national electorate has shifted to the point that the PPP(D) numbers actually reflect public opinion in NY23 and NJ, let’s further assume that McDonnell’s expected low-mid double digit win occurs.
If those events happen, how likely is it that there could be a 1.5-2 point win for Harmer in CA10? We haven’t been following it that closely, but the big shift toward the GOP in the mid-south to northeast part of the country cannot be taken in isolation. It could be happening elsewhere (Albuqueque Mayor and City Council races as a case in point.) The next mayor of Atlanta could be a Republican without a runoff, according to the polls.
Do any of you folks care to weigh in on CA 10? Thanks.
Wow so Daggett’s people just repeat random chit to there candidate in such a way he bring it up when interviewed by media? lol
Marv, I think it’s a bridge to far this season, perhaps next is my opinion.
It’s a San Fran district that gave Obama 70% in 08. If we can come within 10 points there that will deliver another strong message.
Knighthawk, I would agree with that. If memory serves me right CA-10 is a San Fran suburb district isn’t it? I think it will be close though.
Sometimes, even the folks in San Francisco can surprise you; in the 2008 they:
1. Voted No on a referendum to name a new sewage treatment facility after George W. Bush
2. Voted No on a referendum to legalize prostitution in San Francisco.
3. Voted Yes on a referendum to have the San Francisco School District re-establish for-credit JROTC in their high schools.
Perhaps they have another surprise upcoming. Apparently Harmer is hitting the Dems hard on the water rights and smelt issue.
Maine voters favor traditional marriage 51-47.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
Maine says no to Gay Marriage 51-47 according to PPP.
You beat me Marv. I won’t hold it against you this time my friend…but don’t do it again
My gosh, talk about a nightmarish weekend for the libs.
Marv,
Maybe, but I expect the Dem to win by about 8 in CA-10. It’s not a favorable district for the GOP. I’d love to be wrong about that of course.
-Polaris
#66 This number on the Maine Marriage question corresponds to a generalized GOP/Conservative tailwind caused by a realignment of Indies. I also think (and partially agree with Jensen) that a lot of Dems will be discouraged and not vote at the same rate as conservative and moderate to conservative voters (generally Indies and republicans). More than anything, I think the state of the economy has the most to do with this.
-Polaris
My understanding is that CA-10 was gerrymandered in 2002 so that it would be “safe”, whereas it had been competitive prior to that. Maybe this water thing is a sleeper issue, but I don’t think turnout alone would flip the seat.
#65–
1. That only lost because people opposed naming the facility the “George W. Bush Solid Waste Treatment Plant.” Rather, they would have preferred that the actual, er, waste be referred to as “George W. Bush.” As in, “Jeez, I just stepped in some dog George W. Bush!”
2. Most San Franciscans agree with the late Andrea Dworkin’s assertion that “all (heterosexual) sex is rape.” Therefore, legalized prostitution would just be legalized rape.
3. A military is acceptable, as long as it serves Barack Hussein Obama and His Glorious Revolution. Given that Obama’s victory seemed imminent at that point, this was a gimme.
#72 That was my understanding as well Dr Jay. Cali is one of the most Gerrymandered states in the union. It’s almost impossible to change the partisan nature of the Ca assembly (or CA congressional makeup) no matter how big or small the partisan tailwind.
The “gubernater” tried to change that and was foiled a few years ago.
-Polaris
I kid you not but Frum has renamed the New Majority the Frum Forum!
#75 I am not suprised at all. However, I think it will be years, if ever, before Frum is welcome again amoung conservatives. Same goes for the likes of Peggy Noonan and Colin Powell and the other usual suspects.
-Polaris
Polaris,
But FrumForum? hahahahaha
In the PPP NY-23 poll, 61% of independents said the Dems in Congress were too liberal.
Marv’s intuition about CA-10 could be on to something.
Harmer is hammering the water issue which has signage along Interstate 5 going North and South across the state. Harmer has also gotten some supportive radio time and plugs. Supposedly, he also did well in the debate he had with Garamendi.
We’ll see…..
#77 Maybe Frum likes to see his name in print. That would explain all the interviews with the MSM in order to “help” the republican party.
-Polaris
#68 phoenixrisen
Sorry, I don’t know what on earth got in to me.
#78 That seems appropriate for the constituency of NY-23 given it’s a reliably republican district that leans conservative.
-Polaris
We can glean from the NY-23 results that the indies are pretty conservative.
The Republicans in NY-23 seem more moderate than they are nationally according to PPP(D) (less than 2/3 of them are conservative) but they’re still voting for Hoffman.
#83 Near as I can gather, the fact that Scozzafava has been outed as a democrat is poison to those that self-id as republican in NY-23 unless they are already inclined to agree with her ideologically.
At least that is my take.
If so, then what Scozzafava did today is likely to hurt Owens more than help him.
-Polaris
Anyone else see Jensen’s lattest tweet?
“Bob McDonnells up by a zillion, can i just go to bed?”
#85 That’s pretty funny actually.
-Polaris
Polaris,
Your points in #71 could be used to argue my contention that a win by Harmer in CA10 is possibility.
The last poll had him down 50-40-10. Perhaps it did not catch the apparent national mood-swing over the weekend. (I mean, Johnny Damon had two strikes on him with two outs in the top of the ninth and look what happened. Slam, bang and it was over…..same thing could happen in CA 10.)
#85 phoenix,
Could you copy us in on that, I’d like to see it?
#87 Maybe. However, CA-10 as DrJay suggests is pretty well gerrymandered in favor of the Dems. You may well be right. I am simply not expecting much from CA-10 is all.
-Polaris
PPP is quickly becoming a favorite pollster. Yeah, so theyre biased- they have the wisdom though to see reality when its pretty glaring, and their latest polls seem to reflect the general dynamics of these races- a rebounding Republican party + angst against unpopular Obama policies + poor Deeds campaign + Jon Corzine being John Corzine… not to mention the whole Dede fiasco…all adding up to big wins potentially on electrion day.
#89 Polaris,
OK, copy that. We’ll watch CA10 as a bonus. At about what time on election night will you be back up on this freq?
#91 Expect me back online at about midnight EST (Tues night/Weds morning) give or take.
-Polaris
#90 finn
What’s your take on CA10?
As for Siena, here’s a post over at silver’s blog:
“The Siena poll is over counting Dems, perhaps substantially.
When reviewing the linked internals, I was wondering how Hooffman could be leading among Republicans and Indis and pulling in more Dem than Owens is GOP in a district with 45% GOP and 27% Dem.
If the GOP, Dems and Indis all show up at equal rates in the Siena poll, Hoffman (37.48%) should be leading Owens (33.47) by four points.
The conservative GOP and indis are far more fired up in national polling than liberal Dems, thus Hoffman probably should have a high single digit lead in the Siena poll.
The only way Owens could have a one point lead is if Siena substantially over counted Dems and liberal Indis.
The PPP results indicate that Hoffman continued to accumulate support over the past few days. Hoffman will win this in a walk.”
#92 Polaris,
OK. CA will have been closed for about an hour by then and we’ll have almost complete results for VA, NJ, and NY23. The Atlanta Mayoral election plus ME Question 1 will provide grist for the mill.
#94 Tommy_Boy,
It appears that Nate has come to the realization that there has been a measurable shift in the public mood over the last 72-96 hours. I hope that it carries us all the way to CA10.
Marv,
That’s not Nate but rather a comment on his NY-23 post.
#96 I wonder what 2×4 finally penetrated Silver’s thick skull that the mood change was real effect rather than pollsters “creating news rather than reporting it”
-Polaris
its gerrymandered here beyond a 15% chance of an upset, unfortunately.
The problem is they include RESIDENTS in many of the population tabulations to carve up districts- read-non-citizens- so LA city is actually over represented, meanwhile Republicans have to fight for a few districts in Orange and Riverside and San Diego and San Bernardino Counties. If balanced based on CITIZEN population, Orange, the IE, and San Diego Counties would have as many representatives as Los Angeles County. But thats not the case.
#97 NM. Nate is still clueless….
-Polaris
LA County-10.2 million
“Red” Southland counties- 11million see below.
Orange 3.1 million
Riverside 2 million
San Bernardino 2 million
San Diego 3.1 million
Ventura .8 million
The state is carved up to force Republicans to compete in moderate districts, the dems get protection.
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 42%
#102 14 point win for McDonnell. Consistant with all the other polling in VA for the last week.
-Polaris
Did anyone notice Q.10 in this poll? Barack Obama’s approval/disapproval is at 45-45 in NJ. Could that be possible? If so, his campaign stops Sunday probably didn’t do much good.
Tommy,
Link please, thanks.
#104 That would be my take. If this pattern persists, Dem candidates next year will be asking Obama to stay away.
-Polaris
#106 Polaris,
Deeds correctly saw the hazard of more than a token embrace of Obama, even so, the D label after his
name has proven to be fatal. Owens and potentially Corzine will have the same problem. I tend to agree with your skepticism about CA10, although we can hope.
Marv,
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/5357560981
#107 Owens and Corzine were counting on third party stalking horses to allow three corner races.
Winning a three corner race is much different than an effective head to head race since (given only a plurality is needed to elect) in a three corner race, if you can turnout out your hard-core partisans, youi will win.
That is why I am morally convinced that Corzine hired Daggett to run as a third party candidate in NJ. In the case of NY-23, the Dems sat back and gleefully watched the GOP do it for them.
-Polaris
Well, PPP has made my predictions look reasonable, if only for a night. Yay! Good night!
Q.9 in this poll is the Obama approval/disapproval number in VA…..41-52
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1102.pdf
From PPP(D)
“Unless Democrats really have an aversion to answering polls on Halloween weekend (wasn’t a problem last year) Tuesday is going to be a pretty brutal election night. We shall see.”
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
Good night all.
Did Bloomberg endorse anyone in NJ?
I am watching Imus call Corzine a creep right now.
+5 for Christie on election day