NJ: Another Poll Shows Christie Momentum
Add Survey USA to the growing number of polls showing Chris Christie in the lead.
GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (Survey USA)
Chris Christie (R) 45%
Jon Corzine (D-inc) 42%
Chris Daggett (I) 10%
This poll was done October 30-November 1 among 582 likely and actual voters. Among those already voted (14%), Corzine leads 50%-38%-9% with 2% of them still undecided even though they already voted. And to avoid creating another pointless Virginia thread, Survey USA shows Bob McDonnell cruising over The Washington Post Creigh Deeds by 18%.
GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Survey USA)
Bob McDonnell (R) 58%
Creigh Deeds (D) 40%
The Republicans for Attorney General and Lt. Governor are also dominating. This poll was done October 30-November 1 among 574 likely voters.
UPDATE (12:36pm): Monmouth University and Gannett have an update of their polling that contradicts every other poll out so far today and shows Jon Corzine ahead.
GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (Monmouth/Gannett)
Jon Corzine (D-inc) 43%
Chris Christie (R) 41%
Chris Daggett (I) 8%
This poll was done October 31-November 1 among 722 likely voters. They are either going to look like geniuses or fools.
UPDATE (12:41pm): The polls are flying in now. Democracy Corps decides to join the side showing Corzine ahead.
GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (Democracy Corps)
Jon Corzine (D-inc) 41%
Chris Christie (R) 37%
Chris Daggett (I) 15%
This poll was done October 29-November 1 among 606 likely voters. One thing to note is the Democracy Corps poll has a much earlier start date than some of the other polls out and may be missing the Christie surge.
So now we have polls ranging from a 6% Christie victory to a 4% Corzine victory. Unreal.
Corzine 45 and tanking; if there are kos plants here, time to sell.
Wylie you are back. Do not worry; after tomorrow, Obamacare will be pronounced dead officially by Eph.
Good news.
Monmouth: Corzine 43-41 (D+11)
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP31_2.pdf
Any live teleconferencing on any conservative blogs tomorrow night?
#5
Good question.
I have to wonder where Monmouth is polling. Northern New Jersey? Sounds like desperation. Every poll is trending heavily to Christie heading into tomorrow.
The difinitive poll to me is RAS. I guess he must be polling tonight.
I wonder how Christie and McDonnell were able to mount an effective campain WITHOUT Palin (the GOP king maker) campaigning for them? Any thoughts?
Didn’t MM show a 5 point Corzine lead for it’s last poll?
#7
He is peaking exactly at the right time.
When some senior Democrats worried Scozzafava might be wavering about the endorsement, according to another account, the White House got Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, one of the most powerful figures in the state, and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to place calls to the assemblywoman on Saturday evening to coax her into delivering it. Sen. Chuck Schumer, who had been in touch with White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and Israel, also weighed in.
Two senior Democrats with ties to the White House praised Cuomo’s role in the operation, saying they were confident Scozzafava was on board after learning that she told Cuomo: “You’re going to be the next governor of New York.”
Also critical was Silver’s assurance, in a phone conversation with Scozzafava, that the state Assembly Democratic caucus would embrace her if she chose to switch parties, now viewed as a real possibility after her endorsement Sunday of Owens.
June O’Neill, until earlier this year the New York Democratic Party chairwoman, played an even more important role in courting Scozzafava, according to one New York official, because they “go to the same social events — church bingo night and the high school dance.”
Democracy corps: Corzine by 4.
http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/11/corzine-carries-four-point-lead-into-election-day/
You know this obamanation is about over. He can not show up campaigning in State races ( ala Corzine ) and claim then its not a referendum on HIMSELF when the voters go in another direction. Hope and change goes under the microscope tomorrow. Memo to Bart Stupek and the rest of the moderate House Democrats, better find a spine, the voters are paying close attention.
Chek, I completely agree. Christie has runaway momentum heading into tomorrow night. Marv, that was Quinnipiac that had that ridiculous poll showing Corzine up 5 last week.
#10 No. That was Quinn. MM though is a live interviewer poll. I am not sure what race they are polling but it’s clearly not the same one that everyone else is.
-Polaris
No surprise there Doc.
#13 — HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL!! LOL!!
Obama’s Chickens are coming home to roost!
Chek,
-best Cartman impression- I hate you so very very much (in response to your comment in the below thread)
Democracy Corps must have D+15 and up on their weight.
Christian Family Poll: Cristie by 12.
Plus they are probably undersampling independents as well.
#15
I think that interview with Imus was a turning point. Christie came across very likeable. His tone of “I-am-fat-what-are-you-going-to-do-about-it” really hit a nerve. He was able to point out what a weasel Corzine is. As Imus said, most of the people voting in Jersey are fat themselves.
I think they had +15 last time.
Jul
Three runs in the 9th. You can’t get better than that.
#9 Palin doesn’t sell well in left-center NJ and it would have given Corzine needless ammunition. That is in no way a negative reflection on Palin as a whole….although your obsession with her Chek is very tiresome.
-Polaris
Well, there it is. Carville is all in for Corzine.
Greenberg is going all out for Corzine. Unbelievable.
Maybe he’s right. Doesn’t appear that way however.
RAS is the one everyone wants to see now. BTW, these guys have Daggett at 15%. Are they kidding me??
#13 Dem Corps did pretty much what I expected. It’s a Corzine “feel good” poll made by a person who is a heavy Corzine donor. Toss.
-Polaris
#
I wonder how Christie and McDonnell were able to mount an effective campain WITHOUT Palin (the GOP king maker) campaigning for them? Any thoughts?
Comment by Chekote — November 2, 2009 @ 12:35 pm
Chek, give it up Puh-leez. Besides, I thought that you didn’t like McDonnell anyway because he was going to make all women in VA where burquas?
Polaris,
Why bother and risk Carple Tunnel?
Definitely a Democratic feel good poll. What do the internals look like?
#31 Good point. Chek will be Chek.
-Polaris
Oh no, we are in trouble in NY-23. Gaffe Biden just mentioned Dick Cheney in his stopover today.
#30
I reversed on McDonnell over a month ago. Give me a break. And if McDonnell ran on his stance on social issues, he would have lost. It is clear that what unites GOPers are fiscal responsibility. Rove’s strategy of using social issues and federal programs to ensure a governing Republican majority proved to be a total bust.
Tom Jensen, Democrat almost sounds hearbroken but just below is a direct quote:
Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout on Tuesday but there aren’t a lot of factors in the race pointing to that as a strong possibility.
34…”Stand up [wheelchair bound] Chuck, so everyone can see you! Oh #@&%$ what am I thinking. Everyone stand up for Chuck!”
Chek will be Chek.
Why would I be anybody else????? This is silly. Also, it is amazing how long MD can hold a grudge.
#37
My favorite Biden moment.
It is a poll designed to give their GOTV encouragement.
BTW – I commiserated with my buddy who works for the Philly Dem party this morning on the Phils implosion last night.
He had only 1 interesting thing to say – the GOTV, from what he hears (we are now into 4th hand info), the Corzine GOTV, while strong, is not quite up to what they thought it would be at this time.
He still thinks Corzine prevails in a squeaker but admits that it is a guess. He is actually (not kidding here) worried about R fraud.
Take it fwiw.
Polaris,
Help me. Am I right in looking at the internals of Greenberg’s poll showing their party ID at 42/27/31 Dem +15
I want to confirm that what I am seeing I am really seeing.
#36 Jensen is techically correct but I am sure he is heartbroken. He knows (and has pushed) what the enthusiasm model says right now and it’s nothing good for Corzine.
-Polaris
What time do the polls close?
#41 Give me a few mins…
-Polaris
#37,
Can you imagine how the MSM would have jumped all over that gaffe if it had been attributed to a GOP VP candidate? As it was, it got hardly any mention at all.
Al-CNN refers to Gaffe as the “former VP.”
If I am reading the crosstabs correctly, DemCorps has:
Party reg: 42-27-31 D-R-I
Party ID: 38-29-31 D-R-I
45…he might have told a wheelchair bound man sitting right there in his chair to stand up, but at least he didn’t fail to correct the spelling when an E appeared on the end of the word potato.
Ever since polaris predicted a mccain win I swore I would never read this report…now I’m back!
Don’t make me sorry!
Tonster
Sorry missed a “2″:
Party reg: 42-27-31 D-R-I
Party ID: 38-29-32 D-R-I
#41 He is making it hard to read, but that looks right. D+15 for Dem Corps
-Polaris
#50 Thanks DrJay. That poll was hard to read. I accept the correction then. D+12.
-Polaris
ACK! I mean D+9. I can do math…really I can.
-Polaris
#47 This btw is typical of Dem Corps. I think that D+9 is actually going to be close to correct, but Dem Corps always seems (esp in NJ) to find the most “liberal” members of the various demographic groups.
-Polaris
It’s ok, your just having a Perot moment.
Even Democracy Corpse can’t get Corzine over 41%. And Daggett is not getting 15%.
#56 Agreed. Daggett will definately be in single digits.
-Polaris
The D+15 part is funny though.
#55 KnightHawk,
It is patently unfair to tease Polaris anymore about Perot, after all, he corrected the Perot thing almost immediately.
I reversed on McDonnell over a month ago.
So as long as we have a fiscally conservative candidate, you will sell out women. Not much of a feminist are you.
http://www.breitbart.tv/planned-parenthood-leader-resigns-after-watching-ultrasound-of-abortion-procedure/
Obama weakens in Gallup: 53(-2)/39(+1)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
#54 Polaris, again, this depends on my correct interpretation of the crosstabs (”2-3-2″=weak/strong, without leaners; “3-1-3″=with leaners toward party)
DemCorps has Christie winning only 73% of republicans, Corzine winning 78% of Dems, Indies 40-30 Christie.
With leaners he has Christie winning 73% of republicans, Corzine winning 75% of Dems, Indies 33-22 Christie with 19 Daggett and 25% undecided.
Gallup’s daily tracking is horrible. Not anywhere near as good as Rasmussen. One day Gallup has it +4, then suddenly, +12, then +7, +15, +4, and so on.
Nah, I opened up the Dem Corps crosstabs. It’s just that they are hard to read and I messed it up. Dr Jay has given the correct numbers.
Carville and Greenberg are experienced operatives and pollsters. They won’t slant any poll using the obvious technique of “bad weights” because tat’s too easy to detect. My take on his poll is that he’s getting unrepresentative sample of each demographic sub-group.
-Polaris
D+9 is very reasonable for NJ – probable in fact.
Gallup plus 14, starting its weekly free fall to +8 before rising again on Friday to 14%. They need to work on their methodology.
Foir the LAST time – will everyone stop teasing Polaris about the now infamous Perot Gaffe?
It is not fair to keep mentioning it over and over again.
Yup, I see it as D +8 to 10 for NJ.
On a side note, the stock market’s rise this am, has fallen fast. It went from +122 to +9 now.
#63 Exactly and you’ve just explained why I found the table so hard to read, but I agree that your read makes the most sense.
Your numbers though illustrate what I think is wrong with Dem Corps here (besides the fact the person actually running the poll is a heavy Corzine donor).
This is a heavy GOP year with a lot of angst towards the Dems nationwide (as shown by the Indie shift virtually everywhere) and Corzine is an awful governor by any estimation. This has contributed to a very low enthusiasm factor for Dems.
Yet in spite of this Dem Corps (Carville) would have us believe that Corzine will hold more of his partisan Dem support than Christie will hold of his partisan GOP support.
That is complete and utter garbage.
-Polaris
Darrell and hugh,
Yep, Gallup doesn’t measure up to RAS. I just put it up for something to discuss, it does, however, show a loss for Obama over the weekend. Perhaps that is further evidence of the noticeable shift toward the candidates we are following in NY23, NJ, and VA.
RAS picked up the same movement.
#73 Indeed. I find Ras’ numbers today to be remarkable since Obama is near record lows WITHOUT outlier days.
-Polaris
#70 If Corzine gets more Dems than Christie does Reps, and only loses indies by 10, then I would say it’s a no-brainer that Corzine wins… Like you, I’ll believe it when I see it.
#73 Polaris,
You are #73, to whom are you responding?
Marv, I meant to respond to your post in #72 sorry, typo.
Basically, however, I find the latest Ras numbers remarkable because of the very lack of overt outlier data.
-Polaris
Dem lose ground in Gallup Generic Ballot: D 46(-4)/R 44(nc)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124010/Generic-Ballot-Provides-Clues-2010-Vote.aspx
So Greenberg has Christie up just 10 among indies? Am I reading that right? Seems a lot different from PPP and SUSA. They had that group much more lopsided. So did the last two RAS polls.
I’m confused.
#76 Polaris
OK, thanks
“It is patently unfair to tease Polaris”
—
Not really I never got in on the action before so I took the opening.
btw Biden muddles his words again in NY.
#78 There is nothing cofusing about it. Carville is selecting (pushing) the various respondants to give results that are contrary to all other reputable polls. Basically all his respondants are “more liberal” (or more pro-Corzine if you like) than you should otherwise expect.
Remember that Carville has a personal stake in this as a big Corzine donor which IMHO automatically disqualifies his poll on that ground alone.
-Polaris
Response to Vice President Biden’s Comments Today About My Position On Energy Independence
http://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin#/sarahpalin?v=app_2347471856
As the vice president knows, I have always advocated an all-of-the-above approach to American energy independence. Among other things, my alternative energy goal for Alaska sits at 50 percent because Alaska reached more than 20 percent during my term in office. The Obama-Biden administration, on the other hand, recently announced a renewable goal of only 25 percent. However, domestic drilling should remain a top priority in order to meet America’s consumption and security needs.
The vice president’s extreme opposition to domestic energy development goes all the way back to 1973 when he opposed the Alaska pipeline bill. As Ann Coulter pointed out, “Biden cast one of only five votes against the pipeline that has produced more than 15 billion barrels of oil, supplied nearly 20 percent of this nation’s oil, created tens of thousands of jobs, added hundreds of billions of dollars to the U.S. economy and reduced money transfers to the nation’s enemies by about the same amount.”
This nonsensical opposition to American domestic energy development continues to this day. Apparently the Obama-Biden administration only approves of offshore drilling in Brazil, where it will provide security and jobs for Brazilians. This election is about American security and American jobs.
There’s one way to tell Vice President Biden that we’re tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation’s progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!
- Sarah Palin
Last RAS had indies at 66-20. SUSA had them at 55-25.
Gallup Generic Ballot: D 46(-4)/R 44(nc)
…..
HAHAHAHAHA!
No.
…and PPP had indies at 52-29.
Greenberg has it at 10?
Biden is a dope.
BTW, Obama has zero plans to make the USA “energy independent,” mostly because in the short-term, it cannot be done.
I mean, we get a lot of oil, NG and electricity from Canada and Mexico.
And the problem is???
The trouble with Democrats is they always have costly solutions in search of problems.
–KRR
Some of these generic ballots are a joke. PPP(D) actually said D’s had a 48-40 advantage in a poll released Oct. 23. Given the poll is of registered voters, but does anyone believe the mood of the electorate is almost the same as the +9 the D’s got on election day 2008 in congressional races?
Damb she’s quick, he only said that like an hour ago.
Gosh, how many Gaffes did the Hair Extension one have today?
Don’t know, day is not over yet!
#89 Does Vegas have an over-under betting line on Biden’s gaffes the day before an election?
-Polaris
His whole speech is so full or errors and gaffes.
Intrade should do a weekly count over\under.
#91 Polaris,
Speaking of Vegas odds, Air Force is a 17 point favorite at home against Army this Saturday.
250 people showed up to the Biden rally. However, 50 were media folks. So, net 200.
Biden rally today: 200 people (not counting media)
Last time Palin was in upstate NY: 28,000
LOL
#95 Tina,
You’re listening to Rush too.
You too, KnightHawk?
Yup!
Rush misread Fund’s E-mail on the Indie support for Christie in NJ. Rush said that Christie has 30% of the Indies, when it’s actually a 30 point lead at 55-25 among Indies.
Yes.
Market has turned negative.
Rush mentioned the Drudge headline “Atlanta poised to elect white mayor.”
What caused the market to turn so fast?
I take it back Mamouth has the spread of indies as Christie just +10.
I love Rush’s comments on Dede Scozzafava, he says she is guilty of bestiality because she screwed every RINO in the country with her Owens endorsement.
105
Now that’s funny!!!!!
Guys, please don’t let your excitement get you carried away! I still say Corzine wins re-election due to massive, blatant fraud. Nothing will be done because the media are in the tank for the Dems.
Secondly: Can we please modulate the Palin sychopancy. While an interesting personality, her resignation fatally undermines her as a conservative leader of substance in the future. I still can’t get over how terrible her exit speech was — showed she was not ready for prime time as an elected conservative leader.
That said, I do believe that Palin will be very influential as a conservative celebrity a la Rush. She enjoys a dedicated following as evidenced here and now that she is unfettered by elective office she will be a refreshingly candid voice in our national discourse. She will nicely compliment Rush and Hannity.
But please, no more talk of her as a future presidential aspirant. It’s not her thing.
Folks,
I’d bet that Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe become hard NO votes on Obamacare after NY23, VA, and NJ. (Particularly Collins who campaigned for DeDe.)
the market
On NJ,
The fact that it is going to be very close is a loss for the Dems in erality. In normal times, they win by double digits.
erality should be reality.
Mark Blumenthal calls the NY-23 race despite the Siena poll:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ny23_watch_monday_morning.php
Market has fallen because of concerns abou the U.S. Economy.
#107 I smell a Kos plant
#107 CA Conservative
1 or 2 points is about the maximum fraud possible, even for the Dems. In NJ, that’s going to be about 22 to 44 thousand votes in this election, based on 2005 turnout. That is probably too much fraud to hide, as far as a raw vote total is concerned. Besides that, it is really, really, dumb to attempt fraud on that scale against a former Federal prosecutor.
#104 That also explains why MM is the only independant poll at this point showing a Corzine lead in NJ.
I don’t believe that Christie only leads by 10 in NJ when set against all the other evidence. It’s more and I suspect much more.
-Polaris
#117 Polaris,
Yep, Christie at +10 with Indies is crazy. SUSA has him at 55-25 with Indies.
Polaris,
Glad you’re back. Check #115 please. It just seems virtually impossible to cheat by 40,000 votes in the state election. What is your considered estimate for fraud in a race with this big of a raw vote total?
“DemCorps has Christie winning only 73% of republicans,”
Right, more than a quarter of Republicans want Corzine as Governor???
Don’t make me laugh.
Polaris,
Your analysis are much more insightful compared to Slimy Silver’s.
Maybe you should become a real time election prognosticator and blogger??
Ever thought of it? You’d be better than Dem Hack Sabato.
#119 I agree with you and said as much last night. About the most you can expect to get from fraud is 1-2% and that would translate into about 20,000 ballots as a rough, first approximation, best guess estimate. Anything more, and the fraud becomes blatently obvious and people go to jail which is….embarassing….in a race with considerable national attention.
-Polaris
If you read MM’s “explanation” they say the change from their previous poll that showed Christie + 1 is “statistically insignificant”. It’s the only poll that doesn’t show Christie improving. Even Dem Corpse improved Christie from -5 to -4.
Jason – some of the Republicans would be in the Daggett camp and some in the undecided column.
#121 Nah. I like the protections of being a private (and anonymous) citizen. This analysis if fun, I will admit that.
-Polaris
#123 Of course. The people at MM can read the other polls as well as we can and they are trying to protect themselves.
-Polaris
If you notice, the polls showing Corzine up have the most “undecideds”.
You know, fraud really becomes an issue if an election is extremely tight like what we saw in Gregoire-Rossi and Coleman-Franken. Marv, you’re right. I just can’t imagine anything via margin of fraud that will exceed 1%. 1% is an awful lot of votes. Christie being up in essence 4 after you average out the legit polls (though I saw take Quinn and Monmouth with a grain of salt) I don’t see how Corzine can get what he needs.
“Jason – some of the Republicans would be in the Daggett camp and some in the undecided column.”
Not 27%
#121 Jack
Some of us think that Polaris does that already (real time election prognosticator), he just won’t confirm it.
#129 Agreed which is why the “pro-Corzine” polls have rather suspect corosstabs today. I think it’s pretty darn clear that the polling is all showing a late surge towards Christie which is telling me that the remaining undecideds/Daggett voters are crystalizing towards Christie…which suprises me not at all.
-Polaris
The Pollster.com final average is tied at exactly 42.
#132 Brandon,
Advantage Christie, due to late movement towards Christie over the weekend.
based on #131, given polaris’ predictions that mccain would beat obameister, I guess the money is on corzine right now…
It is obvious to predict NJ.
Just average the respected pollsters, and throw out the University and hack polls.
Average- Quinn, RAS, PPP, SUSA
You saw Quiinipac realized that they could not keep propping up Corzine this morning. Their clients are watching.
Sweep. Big out the straw brooms, gonna be hard to spin this one at MSDNC tomorrow night.
Chrisite is a former US Attorney and the DNC knows this. Corzine can only steal a recount if the vote is 1% or below.
I hear the Congressional GOP is watching closely and has warned the NJ Dem chairman that NJ GOP reps like Chris Smith will call a Special Prosecutor if thier is blantant fraud.
It seems clear to me that more live voters will mark Christie ballots tomorrow. But will it be enough to overcome the MOF? Maybe they can send Biden from NY-23 back down to NJ to stump in the state cemeteries. The Dems need to make sure they get the usual high turnout from this core constituent.
I do believe the Democrats will not allow Corzine to go full tilt on any Recount that is not credible.
They know the country is watching and it would backfire for the dEMS in 2010 in states like DE and Penn
Darrell, NJ will be watching the Yanks tonight.
Campaigning means nothing now.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2009/11/recount_in_jersey_candidates_p.html
#141. No, we will be watching the Phillies.
Just to be fair, Marist, Monmouth, Quin did a better job in 2005 than Ras and SUSA:
Quinnipiac November 2 50% 38% (+12)
Marist November 4 51% 41% (+10)
Monmouth November 4 47% 38% (+9)
Rasmussen November 6 44% 39% (+5)
Quinnipiac November 7 52% 45% (+7)
Survey USA November 7 50% 44% (+6)
(this is from Wikipedia)
M,M,Q: (+9.5)
Ras,SUSA: (+5.5)
Actual: 53-43 (+10)
I’m sure this was a more traditional electorate though.
#141 Jason T.
I think that the campaigns were basically over when Happy Hour started last Friday, with the obvious exception of NY23.
Marv, I have never seen such a blatant occasion of backstabbing as DeDe.
She was promised a Federal job by Obama and Schumer because she will lose her State House seat in 2010.
But Obama will dump here when Owens loses.
Christie and Hoffman on Hannity in the next hr.
144. Good info. Corzine won bigger in 2005 because of Bush hatred.
Corzine will lose in 2009 because of Corzine hatred.
141…no, I meant Biden should campaign in the cemeteries. Dead people cannot watch Yanks vs. Phils, but they can vote.
Brandon, what is your final call in NJ? I mean with a possible recount
#144. But look at those numbers of undecideds, that hardly makes them good polls. Looks like they got more lucky than good.
Brandon,
Any further word on a RAS NJ poll today?
Hannity says that his source says that NJ could come down to 15k to 20k votes – either way.
#151. 46-44-9
#153. I think he will release it tomorrow morning, if he did indeed poll one more time.
Brandon,
I sent RAS an e-mail asking if they have a NJ poll in the field, now answer yet.
154…if that is true, it is within the MOF and there is no way Corzine can lose.
#134 Really? Do you think Mark Blumenthal is wrong too (at polster.com)?
I see a troll here trying to take a cheap shot at me.
-Polaris
Tina, sadly fraud will beat 20k votes for Christie.
I do think chris will be a much better fighter on that than Norm Coleman
Yup Darrell.
I doubt that Ras wil come out with a poll the day of the election. I can not recall him doing this in any other race.
Hannity has says that Scott Rasmussen was looking for a Corzne surge/recovery and he has not detected it in his polling.
And the NJ courts are kangaroo courts for the Ds. They will do the Drats bigging. Do I need to remind you of 2002?
bigging =bidding.
I like Sean Hannity, but his sources never tend be right.
I listened to him in 2008 and they were usually wrong
Folks,
The Dems can’t cheat Christie by a 20,000 vote swing! Remember that it was only several hundred that did in Rossi and Coleman. (IIRC)
Tina, my gut tells me the Quinnipac poll is the real indicator.
For a pollster that was doing everything they could do to prop up Corzine, and then about face with a Christie lead tells you the real trend.
I could see a ballot box victory for Christie, but an actual election victory for Corzine when all the crookery is factored in.
I think that Eph’s sources are more reliable than Hannity’s.
Marv, I was just assuming that 20k is under 1% of the vote. If so, it gives Corzine credibility to launch a Recount.
I hope the RNC is ready for this, but I doubt it/
What does Eph say Marv?
Christie is Pro-Life, as is McDonnell and Hoffman of course.
#162 I believe it (regarding Rasmussen).
-Polaris
Tina,
Check out Brandon’s link #142.
#152 Those aren’t all undecideds. The “others” got about 4% of the vote in 2005. But Quin has the fewest listed there, and Ras the most.
Tina, I expect Pete Sessions to resign on Wednsday no matter the results.
Too many recall how in 2000 the GOP gave Jim Jeffords millions to save his VT Seat, and then switch 4 months later.
Giving Dede 900k is awful
165…and Hannity had bought into all the stuff on election day 2004, and while not conceding that Kerry had beaten Bush, Hannity was obviously convinced it was going to happen by the way he was talking.
Didnt they give a ton to that clown in Rhode Island as well?
Chris Christie’s Next Case: Who Stole My Election?
Absentee voter fraud may play a significant role in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election.Article Comments
WSJ
#172 Jason T.
I don’t know, Eph hasn’t checked in with that info yet today.
Did this get posted?
Ras: “For the third straight month, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats inched up while the number of Republicans fell slightly.”
Dem: 37.8
Rep: 31.9
Ind: 30.3
You would think after 2008 and the NY 20 Special, that the GOP would hire lawyers who specialize in Absentee ballots.
One thing Bush did well is that his team hired excellent attorneys who would have saved Coleman and Tedesco
Drjay, that means crap if the Indy’s are really Republicans who hated Bush.
They can get 10-15k no problem.
Bergan county alone has about ~560 polling places.. say 20 per place and you got like 11k right there.
RAS also said on FOX, that the DEM ballot went up due to the DOW hitting 10k. Since that the market has tanked.
In my opinion, if there is evidence of decisive fraud in this election, the Republicans will win this time. Apparently the RGA is quite aware of the problem. See #142
I am not making this up, the MOF is a concern. Corzine is a thief, and the Rs do not know how to respond to it.
Only President Bush – 2000 – had better lawyers than Gore.
I have seen this in occur in 2002, 2004, and 2008 – with minimal response by the RNC.
I missed HOffman’s remarks on Hannity. I believe Christie is coming up nxt.
I do not trust the RNC Head to be of any help in this matter.
I Have Felt a Great Disturbance in the Liberal Blogosphere
One of my readers surprised me a great deal by e-mailing me that Nate Silver of the blog 538.com had predicted a Christie win in New Jersey. Then I read his post – there are a ton of caveats, but he does conclude: “Obviously, anybody’s race, but I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
NRO – Campaing Spot- is Silverfish doing a turnabout on NJ???
Good guys up, Democrats down big in Intrade. (I know that it’s not predicative, but reflective of the polls)
http://www.intrade.com/
From Campaign Spot:
HORSERACE
I Have Felt a Great Disturbance in the Liberal Blogosphere
One of my readers surprised me a great deal by e-mailing me that Nate Silver of the blog 538.com had predicted a Christie win in New Jersey. Then I read his post – there are a ton of caveats, but he does conclude: “Obviously, anybody’s race, but I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
Christie on Hannity (I tried to summarize):
He feels good about the trend of the race – cites several polls.
He has 300 lawyers and 600 chalengers on the ground (sounds good to me).
The race is between him and Corzine – not the Sock Puppet
Hannity warns him on voter fraud.
Hannity tells him he has an incredible oppt. to win.
Christie – continued
Praises McDonnel in VA.
Corzine an utter failure – a serial tax raiser and spender.
McDonnell down 1.5 to 97 in Intrade.
Damn, it’s getting too close.
RE: #154 and 165,
“I like Sean Hannity, but his sources never tend be right.”
I don’t like Sean Hannity and I don’t believe he has any REAL sources. I think Hannity just says what he thinks we want to hear. I’m not a fan at all because I think there is a whole lot of “preachin’ to the choir.” Not a whole lot of substance or original analysis.
Christie continued:
Corzine blew $25 billion on negative ads.
Obumbler has too much time on his hand to spend all weekend in NJ (I would personally ask the Obumbler has he read the intelligence report on Afghanistan).
He is campainging till lunch time tomorrow.
Hannity has been very inaccurate in thte past – he is my least favorite radio host.
#179 – 575,000 new registrations this year.
#197 I like Hannity and his ability to campaign over the airwaves (which is really what he does). However, he is not the best source for serious political analysis. Rush does that better IMHO.
-Polaris
#196 – haha and Dingy Harry says he wants to follow the Corzine way.
Yeah, he’s ok, but not the best source of analysis, I may have been a bit too harsh.
Polaris,
That is exactly why I don’t care for Hannity. He sounds just like a politician. He can excuse rape, incest and murder for his candidate, just like a politician, but bring on the death penalty if a democrat gets a jaywalking ticket.
Seriously, your right, it just sounds like campaigning.
Wow! now even Nate Silver has predicted a Christie win.
187. Tina, in those years we were the majority party.
It is hard for the party of the White House to scream bloody murder. The opposition always is more fired up on these races.
An 11 day FDU poll has Corzine up 2.
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/blue/final.pdf
#203 Nate Silver doesn’t want to make himself look like a bigger fool this time around than he already has.
-Polaris
Sorry on the repeat of Nate silver folks.
The one thing that Hannity does do well is he does have a lot of good guests on his show, if he would just let them get a word in edgewise. But he often lectures his guests instead of letting them make their points.
205. 11 days of 15% DEM overweight and Dagget hitting 15%
#205 An eleven day poll in a race as volotile as this one?
Toss.
-Polaris
Lib punditry sure is a lazy simple minded bunch. Many of them simply assume that the “tea partiers” are “taking over” the GOP. They fail to realize that these people are basically the middle of America, and are the quintesential independents.
The libs also refer to Scozzafava as being opposed because “she favors gay marriage and abortion rights”. They fail to see or admit that these issues are the last ones on the radar to the conservative moovement at the moment.
She was abandoned by conservatives because she favors Health care takeovers, the stimulus bill, and card check. These are the issues that pose the most immediate threat to our country. Not abortion rights or gay marriage.
So let them pooh-pooh a GOP sweep tomorrow. NY23 is a sign of things to come, and they are too chicken to admit it to themselves.
Obama to Karzai: You must earn credibility.
Karzai to Obama (hopefully): You first!
Wednesday will be “change the subject” day @ the WH, even more so then usual.
213. Can only be a change of subject if Corzine wins.
If Corzine wins it will end Healthcare for 2009.
The media thinks the Northeast is untouchable by the GOP.
Jason T, but to allow voter fraud and theft and not say anthing about it?
#213 That’s what’s called a ’sucker’ bet.
-Polaris
Hannity – there is another rally for Owens with Gaffe – and nobody is there.
BayernFan – No, no, didn’t you here all those nasty racist tea-bagging hate mongers were right-wing radical republicans. Of course they are getting it wrong, it’s on purpose cause the truth doesn’t fit the narrative they want.
Ok, maybe he is taling about the earlier one…
Christi on Cavuto atm.
#217 – LOL, yeah I just heard that.
PREDICTION: Obama will announce his Afghanistan plan tomorrow late afternoon, and it will dominate the evening news in an obvious attempt to keep the election results off the front page.
You heard it here first.
#214 – I think you meant ‘if Christi wins’, not Corzine no?
Another suckers bet Darrell.
#223. Why do you always type Christi instead of Christie?
Cavuto – Corzine would not come on this program after repeated requests.
Cause I’m retarded.
Seriously it’s cause Christie reminds me too much of Christine Todd Whitman.
Sorry Knight you are right. If Corzine loses, every Blue Dog in the House will take a Dump in their $500 slacks.
@BayernFan
Darrell doesn’t matter, the squishies in Congress will still get the message from the voters loud and clear. That’s all that matters in the near term.
In other good news……the mail just came and I received my Navy at Hawaii football tickets.
Sorry, wrong name in the first line in my last message.
#229 – I doubt it, but it will certainly help with some, Mrs. piggy doesn’t need many of their votes anyway.
“I Have Felt a Great Disturbance in the Liberal Blogosphere”
Too bad. the dream is interrupted.
These folks thought they would one-party rule a la JFK/LBJ from 1960 to 1968.
Or FDR from 1933 to 1945.
Na.Ga.Happen.
2010 will be a version of 1994. GOP could later take back Congress in 2012.
I’m more interested in the effect it should have on a handful in the senate.
Marv, say Hi to Linda Lingle. One of the few Pubbies to call Obama a Socialist in 2008.
235. Knight so true.
#236 Jason T.
Actually, I might do that. She will be at a function for Naval Academy fans on the Friday night before the game.
SUSA has Corzine ahead 50-38 on early voting, which comprises 14% of the vote according to the poll. That’s the biggest advantage right now for Corzine.
234. Good point, FDR had WW2, otherwise he would have been dumped earlier.
In 1966, The Dems basically lost control of the House after the GOP won 50 seats and alligned with Southern Dem Conservatives.
Marv, some advice get there early if your not within walking distance to the stadium, Honolulu traffic can be a m_f_beotch.
239. Tommy I was waiting for your Pro Corzine post.
Tommy you were predicting a Owens win last week.
#238 – Actually that sounds like a huge advantage, clearly they got a good part of the fraud voted in by mail.
#239 Tommy_Boy,
The Dems have a big mail in vote drive in NJ, so a Corzine lead is to be expected. The GOP has a GOTV game plan this time around.
#241 KnightHawk,
Roger that, I’m a mission hacker type of guy and we’ll be enroute shortly after breakfast (wife permitting) and it’s a night game!
How does SUSA figure that Corzine lead with people who have already voted? Because SUSA asked them?
Steele on Cavuto backtracking, or trying.
Are we going to get a RAS poll this afternoon or in the morning OR not?
“it’s a night game!” oh don’t worry long as it’s 7 or later, morning might be overkill lol. Sunscreen, lots of sunscreen.
No one knows at this point Phil.
Phil, looks like no, but he did say on Fox that he saw no Corzine surge since his last poll.
#245 Yes, that’s exactly how. SUSA asks at the end of the survey if you’ve already voted.
#239 The Dems especially in union/machine states like New Jersey have been pushing early voting HARD ever since 2002 (after Cantwell did it sucessfully in Wash state in 2000 for the senate seat). In New Jersey, I’d be stunned if the early vote were anything other than heavily Corzine.
-Polaris
You want me jimmy up a Rahway Automotive Services of NJ poll (RAS) poll?
#251 Jason T,
That indicates a probable poll of NJ then. Otherwise, RAS wouldn’t know that there is no detectable surge toward Corzine.
Brandon, to your knowledge, has RAS ever waited until the morning of election day to release a poll on a state race? Outside of the national election tracking numbers on election day 2000, 2004, and 2008, I don’t think he ever has.
I bet we have a 5pm NJ from RAS.
But when has Ras come out with a poll the day of the election??? I do not recall him dong that in the past?
ROFL!
The methedology of the last FDU poll is so bad that even (left leaning) Pollster.com is not including it in it’s aggregate!
-Polaris
Jason,
I was predicting an Owens win? You may want to take that one back since I’ve been predicting a Hoffman win for about two weeks now.
I asked that question before Phil on the thread, and re asked it without seeing his comment.
Latest RAS (Rahway Automotive Services) poll:
J.Corzine: 43%
C.Christie: 40%
C.Daggett: 11%
Michelin baby: 6%
Poll of 27 employees of Rahway Automotive Services located in Rahway NJ, including 1 junkyard dog. D:39/R:21/I:40
Lets tune up for tomorrow and really Weds.
This was a Governors race and that has nothing to do with the National govt, or HC Reform or much anything really. Corzine had worn out his welcome and really did not ask the WH for much help until he was basically not redeemable.
We have already heard the dump on Creigh speech, expect it to be memorized and be repeated on a continuous feed. That Creigh just did not listen and this is a state race blah blah blah.
On the house seat it will be some tea bagger slurs mixed in with saying over and over that this district has been in Republican hands for over 100 years, blah blah blah.
Just laugh when you see the bozo talking head spitting these out.
#261 KnightHawk
Yeah, I saw that on their website. It looks like you beat me to it.
#255. I honestly do not know.
Michelin baby’s makes his final case to voters
Interview with Huckabee on his book tour:
Q&A: Mike Huckabee on the (Book Tour) Trail
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1933816,00.html
Gary, actually the Maine Gay Marriage vote will be the headline for the Media, since everyone in Hollywood is Gay.
#262 – Indeed.
I betcha Huckabee is kicking himself for not having gotten out ahead of the others by endorsing Hoffman. Its too late now.
Darrell, true. Huck blew it. Palin benefits greatly.
Not much real news on the healthcare front. Strangeness but not news
1. Harry Reid has blasted the republicans for what putting their healthcare bill online. Saywhat? Reid controls the healthcare plan for the Senate and has not yet released it for public examination. Oh he released paragraphs of what the bill has but no bill. Reid has taken heat for actually not releasing his bill for study. Yet he blasts the GOP for releasing a bill. I mean the President is a democrat, Reid has 60 democrats in the sente and the house is heavily democratic. I would think the democrats had the legislative ball in their court. So let Reid release a bill.
2. Harry Reid is oh so willing to allow amendments from the GOP to the healthcare bill. He will not say which ones as the GOP really cannot propose amendments without actually seeing a bill. So he is not prepared to rule amendments as germane because the GOP really does not know what to amend. How can you amend when you do not have a bill to amend the GOP asks? Confused?
3. The House is even more of a mystery. So much for blasting the GOP for being undemocratic. Remember when a Congressman from Florida accused the GOP of acting like Nazis when the cut off debate in the Ways and Means committee. Pelosi has a secret bill that she will instroduce today or tommorrow. Until she introduces it no one is for sure what’s in it. It may not be the same as her earlier bill. In addition will she allow amendments or will it be all up and down. This is like the old Soviet Union where the members were asked to vote Yes and not given a choice in writtig a bill.
From the Campaign Spot:
(He makes an interesting point)
The Strange Pattern Among the Undecideds.
I look at this trend in New Jersey’s polls, and can’t help but wonder if certain Christie or Daggett supporters don’t like saying so to a pollster. The percentage who say they’re “undecided” in polls showing Corzine up: 7, 8, 8, 6, 7, 4.
Now here’s the percentage who say they’re undecided in polls showing Christie up: 2, 3, 6, 5, 3, 3.
The Corzine poll undecided averages 6.6 (you can take it out to another six, if you’re demonically-inclined) while the Christie poll undecided averages only 3.6.
(I’m not counting the Neighborhood poll, which had 15 percent undecided)
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
BTW what #262 mentioned is already starting.
Chuck Todd attacks PPP:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/33585991#33584319
Says they are a ROBO-poller, and ROBOs get ignored in the final days.
Poor Chuckie poo, he is upset.
rdelbov – Now that’s some change you can believe in right?
I would think that the live pollster would be ignored before a robocall.
274- So do the Chuck Todd’s of the world.
Are you folks going to be here tomorrow night and which network will you be watching?
I will watch Fox with the second tuner on MSNBC.
#272 This was noted by Jensen and others at Pollster.com. Bascially thhe way I see it, IPV polls favor Christie over Corzine by about 3-4 points or so. You will note that this just about explains the difference in “undecided” and DNR voters.
My conclusion: People in NJ are less likely to tell a live interviewer that they are voting against the Democrat than to a machine (i.e. anonymously). Given the political history of NJ, this is not a suprise.
-Polaris
Personally, I would rather do a ROBOpoll than a live one, although both would be interesting to me. But a ROBO — more so. And convenient.
Beck’s use of the quote from princess bridge was priceless tonight.
Polaris,
How would you account for the fact that Rasmussen said on Fox that he has detected no surge toward Corzine since his last poll, if he wasn’t in the field doing one now?
Marv a good question.
Marv, it was mentioned on Hannity’s radio program. I think SEan meant that Ras’s polls, incljding his last one from a few days ago, showed no surge toward Corzine.
I would be very suprised if Ras polled nj again – to provide a result tomorrow.
There is only one more poll that matters. The one that is counted in real time starting about 7 PM EST tomorrow evening. Expect a lot of long faces on commentators, and absolutely no tingles up anyone’s leg.
new thread.
#285 Tina
Ok thanks.
Among those already voted (14%), Corzine leads 50%-38%-9% with 2% of them still undecided even though they already voted.
If those numbers do not prove mail-in voter fraud, nothing does.
I came in third this month ( my 2nd win) winning $100 at RP just for making the 3rd most comments. Lisab won $300 for the 3rd month in a row !
princess bridge ?
So as long as we have a fiscally conservative candidate, you will sell out women. Not much of a feminist are you.
McDonnell said that the thesis no longer reflected his views. I am a Christian and believe in redemption.
although your obsession with her Chek is very tiresome.
So is yours. I know. Those tree hugging, arm pit haired Austin liberal women have you deprived. So pick up a Maxim and see Palin for what she is.