TX: Perry Leads Hutchison By Double Digits
How about something unrelated to today’s elections from the University of Texas. In the Republican primary for Governor, sitting Governor Rick Perry holds a double-digit lead over insurgent candidate Kay Bailey Hutchison.
GOVERNOR – TEXAS – GOP PRIMARY (Univ of Texas)
Rick Perry (inc) 42%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 30%
Debra Medina 7%GOVERNOR – TEXAS – DEM PRIMARY (Univ of Texas)
Kinky Friedman 19%
Tom Schieffer 10%
Ronny Earle 5%
Mark Thompson 3%
Felix Alvarado 2%
Hank Gilbert 0%US SENATE – TEXAS – SPECIAL ELECTION (Univ of Texas)
David Dewhurst 13%
Bill White 13%
John Sharp 10%
Florence Shapiro 3%
Michael Williams 3%
Elizabeth Ames 2%
Roger Williams 1%
Then we get some General Election numbers for the gubernatorial race.
GOVERNOR – TEXAS (Univ of Texas)
Perry (R-inc) 36%
Schieffer (D) 25%Perry (R-inc) 38%
Friedman (D) 23%Hutchison (R) 40%
Schieffer (D) 20%Hutchison (R) 41%
Friedman (D) 21%
This gubernatorial seat should stay in GOP hands based in this poll. This poll was done October 20-27 among 800 registered voters.
Okay, back to the day and elections at hand….
Let’s make it the start of something.
Bailout should stay in the Senate.
Hello election day, we’ve been waiting for you.
Hi Brandon
I have missed you too !
Rasmussen re-election poll of 1000 adults at
http://www.rasmussenreports.com
Frank
Okay, no one is up yet. I’m going back to sleep.
Morning Brandon, just got up my self. Today should be fun
Morning gang.
“Morning has broken…..”
Morning Tina and Jason, no new polls coming across the wire for Jersey yet. Thought RAS might have a final one this morning.
I will repost this from the other thread, under the dirty tricks category…and someone should be able to come up with something witty using the last name of the Dem chairman….
The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett.
A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.”
http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34725/democrats-admit-paying-pro-daggett-call-obama-records-robocall-corzine
PR – I do not know of a time before that Ras has released a “final” pol on Election Day.
Al-Zogby has done so in the past, but not Ras.
The coordination between Corzine and the sock puppet were pretty solid.
“was” solid – oops.
PPP is really going all in….
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/5357496137
Tina, Corzine may have fallen into the pit he dug for Christie. Looks like Daggett has become an outlet for Democratic voters who don’t want to vote for Corzine. How poetic
PPP and Neighborhood Research are the only ones showing Christie outside the margin of error…..
The optimist in me says why would PPP gamble so big if they really were not sure of their numbers….
Wow Jason. LOL!! PPP muy have taken some more polling but they are not going to publish it. I wondered what the size of the momentum that Christie has would translate to the ballot box today.
I have done my part in VA this morning. LET THE RUMPASS BEGIN!!!
Daggett denies he knew about the robocalls. He calls it typical dirty tricks that “Democrats and Republicans” use. But before the cat was out of the bag, his campaign manager had conveniently blamed the Republicans. I wonder kind of job Corzine has offered Daggett in his administration.
That would have been one big pit for Christie, PR.
19. Hey Knova go out and pass out some flyers or something. We will hold down the fort here.
Daggett also blamed Palin for requesting that he drop out of the race. An outright lie. When he was called on it, he had to backtrack quickly.
Knova I assumed you voted…..lots of voters?
I will have to sign off soon. I will be back here later this afternoon my time briefly, and then gone until past 9 PST. I rather be here, than there, but there is where I have to be.
PPP is all in? What did they say? I can’t get the link to come up.
Bye gang, hold down the fort.
#21 — Tina, now we know why Corzine has been able to keep his weight manageable
I got an email from a NJ political insider and he says the climate and energy favors Christie right now but he also says that Corzine has his goons and buses to bring in illegal voters from Philly to try to tip the scales like he did in 2005. Looks like Corzine is using every crooked trick to get him the result he wants. No wonder Christie has all those lawyers and challengers on the ground. Could be an all out war today in Jersey.
22 and 24. Those guys that pass out the “sample ballots” at the polling places just drive me nuts. I won’t even look at them.
It certainly was not like 2008, but I also voted after 7:30 this morning. Where we live the lines tend to be longest between 6 and 7 in the morning and 6 and 7 at night.
Good morning peeps! May the republicans rise!
Big Mayoral Election in Atlanta, today. I look for a Norwood-Reed runoff.
Wow,the As*hole From El Paso is in the lead fro the DEM nomination for Texas guv! Truly their party has become a joke.
I thought cap and trade was dead. What’s up with the Boxer/ Kerry mark up ?
Atlanta mayoral results
34. DQ,
Where’s Joe Camel this morning?
I will vote here in VA in about four hours from now. I wanted to go over lunch hour, because that is when I went one year ago, that way I can get a comparison to the crowd last year both in size and demographically. My neighborhood is about 40% white, 40% black, and 20% asian/other.
I will report back my findings.
Tim V
The house passed its version of Cap/trade. Boxer and some democrats are trying to beat this dead dog bill in the senate. Too little too late and too unpopular.
I don’t know if I would say that PPP is going “all in,” and if so it wasn’t because of more recent polling, as Jensen’s tweet about Tuesday going to be b-r-u-t-a-l for Democrats was posted on Sunday, Nov. 1 (the day that PPP released all of those polls).
But assuming that the polls released Sunday (and the NC mayoral polls released yesterday) are PPP’s final polls, I would say that PPP’s reputation will grow proportionally with how well the GOP does today.
One estimate is that 500 nuclear power plants would make America energy independent. I think that is optimistic in that an abundance of electricity doesn’t mean we won’t need to import oil for transportation needs, but it would certainly take us a long way toward independence. The cost would be in the order of 2 billion per plant (I would think less; that is the first one might be 4 billion, but the 400th would be considerably less than a billion; but call it 2 billion). That is one trillion dollars, comparable to the TARP or stimulus — and for once a deficit would be financing something real.
It is less than the cost of the war, and less than the war is going to cost if we continue. Cheap reliable energy would be one major step toward economic recovery. Low cost energy plus freedom will bring prosperity. If we have the energy we can work on the freedom. The whole thing could be accomplished in four years. Of course the ravening wolves in the Congress won’t do it — but then it’s not likely that this is the kind of hope and change we can believe in from the current White House.
But it would work. France knows the value of nuclear power. Why can’t we learn it?
http://jerrypournelle.com/view/2009/Q4/view595.html#Monday
On the healthcare front. I do not buy all the press talk about healthcare momentum. The budget news on the house bill is bad and worse. The total cost is 1.3 trillion and rising.
The senate bill is a no go with a public option. Heck that bill is not even introduced.
Congressman Stupak’s Mother in law died and he may not be in town until next week. There’s a chance that no healthcare moves will happen this week
Phil, You guys aren’t voting for Senator today. Are you?
If PPP is correct with their polls in NJ and NY 23, their reputation for accuracy on top of their very good record in 2008 will be solidified.
Actually, the fact that he nailed GOP victories will really add to his credibility. He’s a liberal Democrat but his polling business depends on his credibility. This could really add to it although I’m sure he wouldn’t be thrilled about his political results. It would be good for business.
I commented last week on the stock market and the effect of acquisitions on the market. Here’s news today that Warren Buffet will pay Burlington Northern Railroad for 34 billion. He owns 24%(Berjshire does) and he is assuming 10 billion in debt.
Yet 15 billion dollars of so in stock will be bought out. Folks will receive cash and they will have to re-deploy that cash. Buffet has the cash to fund this deal and at 3% interest if financing is cheap-cheap. This may not drive the market today but over time these acquisitions make stock more scarce.
I might add that J & J which has been quite profitable during this downturn will be cutting 6-7 % of its workforce. Even as it makes huge profits it will get its costs in line with its future sales. Its adjusting to a 10% world
It’s almost time to OWN it:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/october_2009/49_blame_bush_for_economy_45_blame_obama
38. I call this going all in…..you can call it what you want.
“Well folks either Democrats don’t like to answer polls over Halloween or Tuesday is going to be b-r-u-t-a-l”
“The house passed its version of Cap/trade.”
You notice a flurry of global warming stories this weekend? The snows of Kilimanjaro melting, etc.?
It’s not a coincidence of course.
Good morning everyone. Election day is finally here!!!!!
#46
I was thinking the same thing. Amazing how the stories of melting snows coincides with the bill. And, of course, Charles Johnson was right on time with a Kilimanjaro melting away thread.
Hey Tim,
where have you been? What happened to all the Dems on this blog?
39 – Tim, the problem with building a nuclear power plant in the US vs. France is that in the US each plant is a one off project with a seperate EIS and permitting process. In France they pretty much build the same plant over and over again. That is why it is way more expensive here.
#50
The reason we are not energy independent is because the enviro movement in this country has been taken over with marxist. Their main goal is to hamper capitalism instead of protecting the enviroment.
Tim V #39
Amen, and Amen!
You would think a legislater would rather put his name on energy independence than throwing money down a rat-trap. I’ve read that todays nuclear power plants aren’t based on the old westinghouse models of the 1950 and 60’s; they’re a lot safer, more efficient, and storage for ALL our plants according to the EPA are safe for over 1 milion years. I wish the ostriches would get their heads out of the sand and do this.
Sorry… I meant by Marxist. More coffee is in order.
46/52 -13 ras today
Nothing will change on nuk-ya-lur power until electricy is 50 cents/kwh for everybody. Until then it will remain NIMBY or every adult who remembers TMI is dead or no longer able to vote.
Just remember the snail darter!
Is “-13″ a new low?
-14 is the record back in the befinning of September but it was produced as a result of an outlier.
This is the second day in a row for -13. Obama has been at 46 and 47 for the past 10 days or so. These aren’t outliers. As Frank says, Obama reached a lower plateau about two wks ago.
joe camel toe
I think those are yesterday’s RAS numbers. He updates at 10.
I’m wrong. He’s at the same number today.
Ok boys, time for another cBS Obama rescue poll.
I think Obama has been bad enough days in Rasmussen, that it no longer can be attributed to an outlier.
Okay, awake again. Planning on going to vote in about an hour or so.
Wow, Jennings has a new post up at PPP. He’s more positive on the Republicans winning tonight than the Republicans.
KBH needs to drop out of the governor’s race and to so today. She has a gigantic ego, but in Texas especially given the anti-DC/anti-Obama tidal wave that’d building in Texas (and elsewhere), KBH is a dead woman walking when running against a governor that has actually (at least in some things) stood up to Washington.
Last year Perry looked vunerable. This year? Not so much.
Even with the trends, KBH would be a lock to get reelected. Now? Because of crossover vote, she is running a serious risk of handing a valuable senate seat to the democrats.
KBH, it’s not all about you. Stay in the Senate where you belong.
-Polaris
#64. Just a few snippets from there:
We think tonight will be very good for Republicans.
Two of the main reasons for that are superior party unity and pretty overwhelming support from independents.
From the high levels of party unity it’s clear that Republicans voters see the path back to power will require staying on the same page. And whether it’s because the Democrats have bad candidates or they’re unhappy with President Obama, independents are giving the GOP very high levels of support. It should be the best Republican election night since George W. Bush got reelected.
I wonder if ScozzaTheHutt’s campaign manager is getting any job offers for other campaigns? I mean after those brilliant moves to hold a rally in front of a Hoffman office, and the wise decision to have ScozzaTheHutt call on Hoffman to declare all the polls false, and drop out of the race.
Polaris. Agreed. Kay Bailout is making a big mistake. She picked a bad year for her to try this. Perry will beat her. Conservatives are in a fowl mood.
Wow.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/ive-gotten-some-right-wing-tirades.html
Read the comments. People are skewering Tom Jensen over his latest post. He says that few voters have changed sides since 2008. I guess that’s subject to argument at the very least.
Per CNN Poll…
54% disapprove of Obama’s handling of economy…
57% disapprove of Obama’s handling of healthcare…
Double-digit swings on both in 6 weeks…
Yes…It’s Waterloo…
CNN 54-45
Economy 46-54
Health Care 42-57 (whoops…)
Afghanistan 42-56
Immigration 36-58
Has a clear plan for solving problems 45-54
Wow that was close…Hunter by a nose…
Poem over at BJG (might make you smile)
link: http://bejohngalt.com/2009/11/a-visit-from-obama/
Hope it comes true.
#68 Yes, and what does the RNC and GOP faithful do to her is the GOP actually loses that Texas seat….or even has to spend real money to fight for it?
KBH, you need to see the big picture here. If you fail, your political career is finished.
-Polaris
BTW for the non-Texans on the board here is a rundown on the top three Democrats above. Kinky Friedman is a musician and a bit of a jokester. He calls his c & w bank “Kinky Friedman and the Texas Jewboys”. Never held any public office and is both a bit of a libertarian and a crank. He almost beat the Democrat nominee as an independent last time. Not really a serious threat.
Tom Sheiffer is the former President of the Texas Rangers ( who have performed like a minor league squad most of their time in the bigs ). Recruited to run despite never having held office previously due to the extremely short bench of Democrats here. Can put you to sleep within minutes of speaking. Nothing more than a sacrificial lamb.
Ronnie Earle is the DA in Travis Co that indicted Tom DeLay on a statue that did not exist when the alleged incident occurred, and shopped it to not one, not two but three grand juries until he could find one stacked enough and dim enough to issue the indictment. Partisan hack that will only draw extreme moonbats and would be absolutely slaughtered in a general election.
Never ever heard of the other three although none gets more than 3% and one is showing 0%!!!!
The action is all in the Republican primary, and I honestly dont understand what KBH is thinking, other than maybe its boring in Washington in the minority. She will not beat Perry, and I am not particularly fond of the former Democrat turned Republican Governor.
71 – What that poll tells me is that people are afraid of being called racist for opposing him. There is a real disconnect between peoples’ approval of him and this policies.
I won’t read this poll… Everyone knows you can’t believe anything that comes out of the University of Texas.
HA!! Just kidding, Polaris.
40. RDEL, that is why is so ignorant for the House to even vote on a Healthcare bill that they know the Senate will to even bring to vote.
The only thing a House Bill accomplishes is a roll call of yea and Nay votes, which will be harmful to Moderate Dem’s
75 – Hey Gary, what about Michael Williams? I was really impressed with him at the convention, and i’ve heard him speak a lot, very smart guy.
Do you think he has a chance? As RR commish, he has statewide name recognition. And i wouldnt think texas republicans have some latent racism against black candidates; in fact he might get the benefit of a ‘reverse’ racism a la obama.
Anyways, i really like him, and i know the election is a ways off (and might not even be in ‘10 if KBH DOESNT resign), but for either ‘10 or ‘12 i think Michael Wiliams is the real deal.
thoughts?
Unions not pulling weight so Dems resort to gangs LOL!!!
http://www.redstate.com/blog/2009/11/03/union-thugs-not-pulling-weight-nj-dems-upgrade-to-actual-criminal-gangs/
Funny thing is that Corzine is from a Farm Town in Illinois, and went to college in Champaign.
I talked to a Fraternity brother of his who said he was a good guy, but was corrupted by $$$ at Goldman Sachs.
I thought this spin was telling from the Politico’s Arena:
Paul Begala
Democratic strategist :
Granted, off-year elections are poor predictors of future results. But they are useful Petri dishes for potential new strategies. In Virginia Creigh Deeds practiced the politics of differentiation. He refused to say he was an Obama Democrat (in a state Obama carried by six points). He indicated he would opt out of the public option for health care if he were empowered to do so. Let’s see how that strategy works out for him. Whether it was with Reagan in 1982 or Clinton in 1994 or Bush in 2006, candidates who run away from their party’s president usually fail – even when the president is unpopular. Heck, especially when the president is unpopular. Voters can spot a phony and a coward a mile away. Every candidate must run his or her own campaign, but a broad strategy of running away from Obama looks like a stone loser to me.
CNN 54-45
…D+18
80. Phoenix I think every GOP voter tonight should be given a Video Camera Phone and try to catch ACORN. Then send it to Glenn Beck
Intrade
Hoffman 77.4
McDonnell 99.1
Bloomberg 95
Christie 56
#76 Knova…that commentary against Obama was raaacist!
(Just kidding)
-Polaris
Underlying theme tonight EPH, is that Hoffman, Christie, and McDonnell are Pro-Life
Jason, 56 for Christie. Good sign, even though I despise SinTrade.
79 IGABT Jim, Williams is indeed the RR commish and that office oversees the various oil and gas leases on state lands, but its not a platform to get you to the Senate when the LT Gov is running. Dewhurst ran the Senate ( the Lt Gov in Texas is in many ways stronger than the Governor in Texas due to this structure ) and is a pretty strong conservative. Bill White is the mayor ( or former ?? I forget now ) of Houston and thus has a base of support there.
Both are way outpolling Williams. I would think Dewhurst gets the nod unless he changes his mind about running.
KBH needs to drop out of the governor’s race and to so today.
She won’t.
She seems pretty determined to run for governor and has a lot of support. Medina will be a spoiler for Perry.
Bloomberg is a schmuck, but at least he is not officially a Democrat
JMH, you know. I’m seeing a lot of MSM, Dem figures and pollsters already explaining the butt-kicking they are apparently expecting tonight. The internal polling that we can’t see must be that bad.
#87
But they didn’t run on the abortion issue. They ran on economics. That should be the lesson for the GOP. Focus on economics and don’t emphasize the social issues.
86 – Sorry, I couldn’t read that at first…my white hood was in the way.
Bloomberg is about Bloomberg. He doesn’t really belong to any party.
I voted today.
KRR
Chekote I disagree. Voters do not like it when heavy hitters go after a Incumbent in their own party.
I have college friends in Austin who do not like her because she is making a safe senate Seat open.
96 – Where??
Attaboy Karl. Wish I could, but I do not work for Corzine and am not a Baltimore Prostitute.
#97
Look. I don’t know why KBH is running. But she seems determined to do it.
“But they didn’t run on the abortion issue. They ran on economics. That should be the lesson for the GOP. Focus on economics and don’t emphasize the social issues.”
Exactly. Pro-life won’t be the message here.
According to KBH, she was going to run for governor the last time but deferred to Perry with the understanding that he wouldn’t run again. She feels that she has already deferred to him once for the party’s sake and won’t do it again.
Chekote I agree, abortion issue does not help the GOP like Economics.
But it is a added bonus when a man that everyone thinks is a RINO(Christie) is Pro-Life
KBH is an idiot. She is reaching the end of her shelf life.
#101
But the SoCons will spin it that way. Just like they claimed the ‘94 victory even though the Contract with America DID NOT contain ONE social issues. They even stayed away from gun control. Again, the GOP needs to emphasize economics. That unites all Republicans.
Actually the Catholic Bishops of North America put out an explicit message to every single parish this weekend that blasted the House bill that provides funds for Abortion. They message was unadulterated, call your rep and senator and tell them this comes out and if it does not that you want them to vote no on the bill. There is a very strong wave of anti Abortion message being sent here, and it is wrong to ignor it.
Wasnt there a recent poll that showed folks against Abortion to be in the absolute majority for the first time? Gallup I think.
102. Point taken. She paid her dues when she took the Bentsen seat in a Special in 1993 to help support a Filibuster.
Problem is that Kay is Status Quo and would appease Obama. Texans i know say that Perry would much tougher on States Rights than Kay
#100 Chek,
I can guess why. It’s EGO pure and simple, but if Texas loses that senate seat then KBH will rate just above DeDe in the minds of the GOP here. She does not have a lot of true support in her run for governor. What she has are a lot of Texas Dems that are crossing over to support her in the primary so they can pick off that senate seat.
If she (and you) can’t see that then you’re blind. The “Daily Texan” (the local UT Campus Rag which is as liberal as you can imagine) was actually encouraging Young Dem student volunteers to go out and make sure that KBH won her primary race for this reason….and you can be sure it’ the strategy of the Texas Dem party.
KBH needs to pick another year to run. Simple as that.
-Polaris
For 2009 and 2010, the Republicans just need to be NOT OBAMA. The Indies will put them over the top.
Jason, although you hate Christie, buy him and make 44 cents per dollar; he is cheap.
#102 So what? KBH is acting like a child. This “my turn” BS works inthe playground but not in politics. Life ain’t fair KBH. Get over it.
-Polaris
105 . Chekote, after the Dems got their ass kicked in 2004 did they move to the Center? NO!!!
They went further left and won in 2006 with a San Fran Marxist as Speaker, and then in 2008 with Hussein.
What is your point? Move to the center left and lose every election like we did in the 1960’s and 1930’s
I don’t know of anyone who thinks that Christie is a RINO. Actually, I am getting tired of the constant RINO, country club, elite meme. It is really tedious. I don’t like populism. It smacks of marxism. People vs. elite can easily morph into proletariat vs. wealthy.
110. Dude I like Christie, I just hate Intrade.
Chekote, after the Dems got their ass kicked in 2004 did they move to the Center? NO!!!
They did on gun control. They did on raising taxes. They did on welfare. Look, you want to go out there and make the criminalization of abortion front and center. Be my guest. You will lose again. Even in South Dakotat where they have been trying to ban all abortions with few exceptions now for two election cycles and both time they got shot down.
#112
Obama adopted a very moderate tone. He campaigned on tax cuts for 95% of the people. Go back and see how the Dems used to campaign before Clinton. No to death penalty. Tax increases for everyone. No to welfare reform. Yes to gun control. This idea that the Dems made no adjustments is pure crap.
#113 However a party dominated only by the elite can (and usually does) lose track of the voters and conditions on the street. That is bad in a lot of ways.
Taken too far, populism has it’s downside, but populism in of itself is not bad and needs to be respected.
The problem is that too many GOP mandarins look down on the very people that make the GOP what it is, and that’s not right or healthy. As was mentioned before, look at the Dems. They were getting the same advice that Frum is giving to the GOP now (move to the center because you are alienating too many people). THEY DID NOT. They moved hard left and opposed everything the republicans tried to do.
When the GOP stumbled and overreached, the Dems got huge gains.
Turnabout is very much fair play. What the GOP needs to avoid is another round of overreach….and the first step to avoiding that is (if we sweep which I think we will) is to recognize that we’re winning this year on ECONOMIC issues and on FEARS of SOCIALISM and NOT because the candidates are pro-life or otherwise social conservatives (and in fact that may actually be hurting Christie somewhat in NJ).
-Polaris
I will never forgive Intrade for the massive screwup on election Day 2004.
I worked in the CBOT bond pits and in the Know traders told me that many Soros employees manipulated that site for weeks to keep Kerry close, even though Bush was a solid bet to win.
They crap site had Bush in Single digits after the Media screwed up the INS polls
Voted at 7 am as I generally do, and there were more people than at the same time last year. Not at all suggesting that kind of turnout, but perhaps a small anecdote in support of increased GOP (and Indie) enthusiasm. Christie voters calling in on the radio this morning seemed to be reporting the same in their areas as well.
Daggett’s ballot position is pretty horrific in my county too, while Christie and Corzine take the first two columns, Daggett is on the second line of the sixth column. I’m thinking he pulls in low single digits in Ocean.
116. Chekote. Moderate tone my Ass. It was the frickin media protecting his ass.
20 years in a Racist Church with Reverend Wright was awful. If Hillary used it, Obama was toast.
I loved Intrade for that screwup; they had Bush in the toilet, Hugh Hewitt’s blog said that INS polls were not accurate and I bought a ton of Bush. Later, that night, I was smiling.
Chekote,
You are wrong. OBAMA ran to the center yes, but only after he had the omination locked up. Until then, he appealed to the hard left. Obama was able to fool a lot of people during his presidential run.
That said, the enthuisiasm that drove the Dems both in 2006 and 2008 was done so by the hard liberal base, and it was this voice of angry opposition that provided the octane that powered the Dems…..and got Obama’s volunteers out on the street.
Don’t fool yourself. 40% of the country is conservative. Therefore the GOP needs to position itself as the opposition party that caters to CONSERVATIVES. If you do, you should be able to peel off at least 10% of the moderates who might not be happy with the ruling party (Dems) on certain issues to get a winning combination.
The numbers indicate to me that Frum has exactly the wrong approach.
-Polaris
For the record, its a sweep tonight. Christie will win surprisingly easy for a very blue State and Corzine will rue his strategy of putting in a sock puppet as Democrats who cant bring themselves to vote for Corzine will punch up Daggett and cost him some votes from usual party loyalists.
119. Great info brother. thanks for Voting.
All I can tell you is that Perry will beat bailout Kay. She is free to run if she wants, but conservatives aren’t gonna like it and they are the ones that vote in the primary.
With the conservative backlash among Republicans it’s a terrible political move for KBH.
My only guess is that she is so insultated inside the beltway she has no idea what is brewing among the rank in file.
Gary, I am thinking Daggett hits about 8%
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/03/cnn-poll-54-disapprove-of-obama-economic-performance/
Going to go vote now.
Chekote we agree to disagree, but your posts are excellent today.
We Chicagoans are still on a hight after Obama’s massive loss of the year. The Olympics. His Feeder Cattle wife too.
Don’t fool yourself. 40% of the country is conservative. Therefore the GOP needs to position itself as the opposition party that caters to CONSERVATIVES.
The thing is that the definition of conservative is somewhat flexible, Most people here describe themselves as conservative, yet there is disagreement on this site, especially with respect to social issue, as to what defines one as a “real” conservative.
CNN: 57% now disapprove of Obama’s performance on health care
And it’s an ADULT poll.
128. Brandon , may the force be with you.
131. The Communist News Network?
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/66041-blue-dog-says-dem-losses-would-strengthen-centrists-position
125. Perry wins on States Rights. Kay would be another Charlie Crist
What’s this?
Rasmussen:
Obama job approval: 42-57
45% for Obama, 49% Against – If Election Were Held Right Now
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/november_2009/45_for_obama_49_against_if_election_were_held_right_now
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/econ_survey_toplines/october_2009/toplines_barack_obama_october_27_28_2009
I live in NY state, but nowhere where there is a major national consequence.
Re: #109 That may be a winning strategy, but it’s not a long-term governing strategy. We need/must have quality candidates with real ideas that work. Obama got elected on “not Bush” and see how that’s already unraveling for him. GOP must emphasize fiscal responsibility first and work on social issues when we can. If the economy is strong the rest will follow.
Howard, they dont make enough Depends for the Blue Dogs for what is going to happen tonight. After they clean up, Speaker Pelosi is going to struggle to 218 for a commendation of national weather anchors.
134. Howard.
1. Double Digit win in Swing State VA is the first body blow
2. Hoffman win for Conservatives creates big Moe for 2010 base.
3. Corzine loss is Micheal spinks getting decked by Tyson in 12 seconds.
4. Gay s lose in Maine is the cherry on top
Have fun Brandon and let us know how it is out there when you get back.
Interesting comment I saw over on HotAir regarding CA-10.
Don’t be so certain that Harmer can’t win in the California 10th. I live in the district. The letters to the main paper in the district, the Contra Costa Times, are heavily in favor of Harmer over Garamendi, the 30-year career office holder. Letter writers are pointing out that Garamendi has been in the state assembly, the state senate, Insurance Commissioner, and now Lt Gov. People are TIRED of career Democrats who have destroyed this state. A surprise may be in order today.
sdillard on November 3, 2009 at 10:40 AM
If Harmer pulls off a win there which I don’t think is likely, that would be incredible. Lots of drunk HHR people would be making strange posts overnight and into the wee hours of tomorrow morning.
#125 I know Phil, but consider this. If the conservatives are mad now, what happens if Texas heaven forbid loses what should be a safe senate seat?
In that case there isn’t a hole deep enough in Texas for KBH to hide in….
-Polaris
Gary, True that.
I want to see the look on Webb’s face after the bloodbath.
He’s up in 12.
Watch his votes carefully.
138. Tom well said.
Howard, unless Biden is dumped by Obama. Webb would be on the ticket in 2012. Biden to old and stupid to be bearer in 2016.
Remember keep tabs of how many times talking heads tell you “this is not a referendum on Obama or Obamacare”, just chuckle. The fact that they had to address it, means that even folks that did not consider that, will have to think about it. And given the record of most of these talking heads, their denials wont be particularly convincing to all but the rabid Democrat progressives.
141. another Jesse Unruh
NYT reports on IOWANS regrets on Obama:
“All my Republican friends — and independents — are sitting back saying, ‘Oh, what did we do?” Ms. McAreavy said. “I’m not to that point yet, but a lot of people are.”…
140 – I agree totally with the first three of your points. The cherry would be Harmer in CA-10. As far as the gay thing is concerned, I still can’t understand how that affects anyone on this site to the point that they would care about it or think it important.
Webb would be on the ticket in 2012. Biden to old and stupid to be bearer in 2016.
Comment by Jason T. — November 3, 2009 @ 11:06 am
It won’t matter who is the VP if unemployment is around 10%.
Which it very well could be.
Look at the fundamentals, they are ugly.
Business is scared to death right now and will not hire anytime soon.
#130 Yeah I know that the term “conservative” is somewhat fuzzy, but the GOP should make this a good thing rather than a bad thing. The GOP should cater to the broadest possible sprectum of what is considered “conservative politics” in this country while maintaining a unified party. That has the side benefit of appealing to enough moderates to win.
In that vein, I do agree with Chek on one point: The pro-life effective litmus test needs to go (at least in it’s most uncompromising form). Being against partial birth abortiions is fine (most reasonable people are), being against Roe v Wade is fine too but it needs to be presented as a states and individual rights issue.
In short the GOP needs to define itself rather than let the media define the GOP for them (because the media are not our friends).
-Polaris
Over on The PA side of trenton they only have
municipal election etc but a friend who is a
poll worker says they have been contacted about Acorn
people coming over into NJ and if they have any info.
Sounds like the thugs are throwing everything
they got at this one. I am still suspicious that
this mail vote may be the killer. I was told
they have 180 K mail in votes. I am trying to
find out if mail in as well as absentee ballots
can be bundled by a group or handler. That could be
a killer. If it works look for it in your neigborhood
next time. What ever happened to doing your civic
duty,and going out to vote. This mail voting
needs to be stopped
Per The Hill…
If there are wide-spread GOP gains tonight, Blue Dog Dem warns it may change how they write bills and vote in 2010…
Wow..
Blue Dog says Dem losses would strengthen centrists’ position
By Michael O’Brien – 11/03/09 08:40 AM ET
Centrist Blue Dog Democrats might see their position strengthened if Democrats suffer broader losses Tuesday, one Blue Dog member suggested.
Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) argued that an election night rebuke for Democratic candidates across the nation could lead some in the party to rethink their plans on healthcare reform and other issues.
“It looks as though the anger that has been boiling up the last couple of months is going to lead to a pretty high turnout from Republicans and from people who are concerned about increased spending,” Altmire said Monday evening during an appearance on Fox Business Network.
“And I do think that if the results show Republicans have a pretty good night, that probably is going to lead some Democrats to think that, going into next year, we need to take a second look at the way that we’ve done a lot of bills we’ve addressed up to this point,” the Pennsylvania congressman added.
150 – It would be Warner before Webb. There is just not the warm and fuzzies in VA for Webb. Warner, unfortunately, would probably keep VA in BHO’s camp.
Does anyone know when the polls close tonight in NJ cemeteries?
#141. I usually don’t go in the morning and I vote in a small precinct, so I don’t think much could be gleaned from my trip.
Everyone is referring to KBH as “bailout Kaye”. Didn’t we establish here last week that she did not vote for the TARP? What is the real story on that? I’ve heard her being bashed for supporting Obama’s plan. Can anyone clarify how she actually voted? I know it’s popular to bash those republicans that some on here consider “RINOS” but I am pretty sure someone posted the lnnk to the roll call vote and she did not vote for the bailout. Am I wrong?
154…I agree. I am often puzzled what fellow Virginians see in Mark Warner.
#157. She didn’t vote for the stimulus but she did vote for TARP.
#160 The big deal with KBH, however, is while her votes have been good (otherwise the water she’s in would be considerably warmer), she has not taken the initiative to publically oppose much of Obama’s agenda. Gov Perry using the Gov’s pulpit in Austin has done just that.
That makes this year about the worst possible time to try to oppose Perry in the GOP primary in a state like Texas. KBH needs to get over her hurt feelings and realize that she is making a dreadful mistake not just for her but for her party.
-Polaris
“Does anyone know when the polls close tonight in NJ cemeteries?”
That will depend on how many votes are needed….
In post #160 I meant to refer to post #157
-Polaris
Someone explain to me why Warner is constantly referred to as a “moderate” or even a moderate conservative.
As far as I can tell, he’s been in lock step with Obama on every piece of legislation and judicial appointment Obama has proposed. When they talk about the ones in the senate who might balk on the public option, he’s never even mentioned. Someone tell me the difference between John Kerry’s senate voting record this year and John Warner’s.
154 – I used to like Warner and had some real high hopes for him being a successful business person. As governor I was disappointed when he raised taxes after saying he wouldn’t, but everyone knew that it was going to have to be done anyway.
That said, he has been a total disappointment as a Senator. Just another Dem hack who made it for himself, but wants to put constraints on those who wish to emulate him in business. I think he got bored making money and decided that he wanted to tell people how they should live.
tarp vote ???
“Underlying theme tonight EPH, is that Hoffman, Christie, and McDonnell are Pro-Life”
No pale pastels bro!!!!
I vote in Texas and I never had a problem with KBH. I think both she and Perry are perfectly fine. I happen to like Perry better, he is already Governor doing a good job and I don’t see why we need KBH running against him, there is zero benefit in this exercise.
KBH is not a RINO and she doesn’t deserve to be demonized. She made a strategic error in my opinion, that’s it. The rest is hype. I am voting for Perry, but I would vote for KBH in a flash over any of the Dems running.
“Underlying theme tonight EPH, is that Hoffman, Christie, and McDonnell are Pro-Life”
Huge losses for NARAL and the pro-abort left tonight.
“Someone explain to me why Warner is constantly referred to as a “moderate” or even a moderate conservative.”
MSM hype. See Bayh. Same narrative, same BS. Anybody read about his father, Birch Bayh? A flaming liberal.
“Underlying theme tonight EPH, is that Hoffman, Christie, and McDonnell are Pro-Life”
Huge losses for NARAL and the pro-abort left tonight.
And not a single law gets changed. So what is the point?
#167 I don’t believe I’ve ever called KBH a RINO. I think she is a selfish woman who is not only putting her own future at risk but the GOP in Texas at risk too for no good reason other than her personal ego.
-Polaris
171. I didn’t say you specifically called KBH a RINO, but others have said it or implied it. And I agree her motives are suspect and not in the interest of the party.
SPIN SPIN SPIN BABY!!!
Elections in Virginia, New Jersey, New York Provide Opportunity for Pro-Life Gains
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — The off-year elections in Virginia, New Jersey and New York provide the pro-life movement with an opportunity for pro-life gains. They also provide the first chance for voters to sound off on the pro-abortion record President Barack Obama has compiled since taking over the White House.
The Virginia governor’s race appears to be the one that will provide the most dividends for pro-life advocates.
There, pro-life former Attorney general Bob McDonnell is taking on pro-abortion candidate Creigh Deeds.
As the race heads into the final day, polls have consistently shown McDonnell leading Deeds even though Deeds has attacked the pro-life advocate on abortion consistently throughout the campaign.
Dave Andrusko of National Right to Life says the Washington Post — in both its news and editorial reporting — has also led a campaign to defeat McDonnell.
“The Post’s editorial page and its hard news reporters–nominally independent of each other–are working in tandem, singing harmoniously off the same sheet of music,” he says. “Collectively they have done their best to torpedo not only McDonnell, but also the pro-life Republican candidates for Lt. Governor and Attorney General. It is no exaggeration to say that the Post’s coverage has been hysterical.”
The Virginia Society for Human Life PAC has endorsed McDonnell, who would be a welcome change from recent pro-abortion governors, the group says.
In New Jersey, the New Jersey Right to Life and National Right to Life PACs, along with pro-life leaders like Rep. Chris Smith and Deal Hudson, are behind Chris Christie as he takes on pro-abortion incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine.
Polls have shown a true toss-up in the race in recent weeks — complicated by the fact that pro-abortion independent candidate Christopher Daggett is getting the support in the high single digits.
“And not a single law gets changed. So what is the point?”
How do you know this?
Dave,
We’re going to need a new thread within the next 10 minutes
“Huge losses for NARAL and the pro-abort left tonight.”
Ordinarily I would take issue with this but hopefully it’s a day for celebration and unity and for lemmings to interpret as they wish.
#168 I’d be careful about the pro-life groups patting themselves on the back. Abortion is very definately a back-burner issue this year, and I’m glad it’s so. I think fighting for control of our own country is far more important.
-Polaris
“And not a single law gets changed. So what is the point?”
….maybe not, but I like to think of it as another dagger into the heart of health-care reform (led by, gulp, some Democrats who will not stand for federal funding for abortion).
I have called for restraint on the use of the term RINO, but when it does fit, use it forcefully. Over-use of the term waters down its meaning. Scozza The Hutt WAS in every way a RINO.
Polaris said:
“In that vein, I do agree with Chek on one point: The pro-life effective litmus test needs to go (at least in it’s most uncompromising form). Being against partial birth abortiions is fine (most reasonable people are), being against Roe v Wade is fine too but it needs to be presented as a states and individual rights issue”.
Although it is no secret that I am staunchly pro-life, I agree with this point of view entirely.
We can disgree on the first trimester and still work together. I CANNOT disagree on PBA and remain in the same party.
Hi Folks,
It’s a great day to be an American! I’ll be standing by all day here at my personal Command Post.
(Polaris, you remember what a Command Post is.) How about some reports from the field?
Joe Scarborough say it’s Christie by 5.
http://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/5395240908
Huge WINS for G-d’s unborn children tonight folks!
<i.How do you know this?
Just going by history. How many were changed from 2000 to 2006?
Eph, I know that the issue is important to you, but this election is not about it. It is about BHO buyers remorse, the economy, and government intrusion into our daily lives. The other stuff is simply along for the ride.
177
Again, I agree with that point. However, I do think Roe should be overturned because the Supreme’s had no right to issue a ruling.
Having said that, it won’t happen and we have to live in reality no matter how distasteful.
Right now, we need to work on saving our country from turning into a poor man’s Venezuela.
” I CANNOT disagree on PBA and remain in the same party.”
Good bye Snowe and Collins!! LOL
178 – Now the defeat of Obamacare is something everyone can agree on, and has more to do with this election than anything else.
180…I am with you MD. As a civil libertarian, my view is that every abortion wipes out about 70 years of civil liberties.
But I also acknowledge that while abortion is a big problem in this country, we have to rescue the country or we won’t have it at all.
Just going by history. When did GWB sign the ban on PBAs???
“As a civil libertarian, my view is that every abortion wipes out about 70 years of civil liberties. ”
Amen!
185 – Snowe and Collins are all that stands between us and Obamacare. I will let others decide what they think is important.
186…true.
WHERE’S CHEK????????????
EPH – was it 2005? Age (and all the beer I drank at the Phils game last night) is eroding my memory.
First things first. We must save our economy from the Marxist influences in the executive and legislative branches of government.
Eph,
Have your NJ sources reported in yet?
“Snowe and Collins are all that stands between us and Obamacare.”
How do you know this?
Wins today at least would mean we’re less likely to see government-funded, abortion-on-demand laws.
193. Does 2005 come in between 2000-2006?
My math aint that great today
Partial Birth Roll Call:
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00340
Darrell and EPH,
Believe me, I am with you guys. Howver, I don’t want to live in a permanent, pseudo-socialistic leftist oligarchy.
No thank you.
Please eph, get a clue OK. BTW, PBA is not abortion, it is murder.
Partial Birth Roll Call part 2:
http://senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=108&session=1&vote=00402
194. Marv,
You know my top sources reorted to me last night that they had an offer from a poster from Florida. I call it a hostile take over of the Christian Family Polling agency. Know anything about that Marv???
200. Thank you for correcting me knova, my mistake.
some of us have different definitions of PBA though.
EPH,
I am working on a joint venture with a private equity firm. You were NOT supposed to find out. Who was the leak?
Thank Doc J for that link. Very imformative.
And not a single law gets changed. So what is the point?
Comment by knova — November 3, 2009 @ 11:37 am
Funding could change.
so are there exit polls? If so, when are they leaked?
See eph, you hijacked the thread and caused desention on this great day, by claiming an issue that was not even discussed by the GOP/Conservative candidates.
And MD, I am not fully convinced that eph would not want to live in an socialistic oligarchy as long as abortion were totally banned. Think about it.
“Joe Scarborough say it’s Christie by 5.”
I hope he is looking at an exit poll….
Knova,
I highly doubt that. Plus, in what reality would that be an either/or choice?
#202
No sir!
201. An awful lot of RINOs on that list, including Mr. Orthodox Jew, Joe Lieberman.
I say lets enjoy this day for what it means–victories will slow the advance of Obama’s big government agenda. Lets celebrate around that and not take the focus and place it on any one issue, abortion or otherwise.
I was at Colonial Williamsburg recently, and just before they were going to re-enact the roll call vote on whether or not to go for independence from Britain, I was walking down the Duke of Gloucester street, and came along side of Patrick Henry (these actors are ALWAYS in character) and I remarked to him what a nice day it was. He stopped, looked me in the eye and said “Aye, that it is. I believe it is going to be a great day for LIBERTY!”
That is kind of how I feel today if we can pull off these wins. Lets all celebrate it together.
MD, Prediction for game 6?
Jason,
There is a 0% chance that he is looking at an exit poll.
I still can’t get my hands around Jersey. By now, I thought I would be certain, one way or another.
I have to stick with my narrow Corzine victory although my degree of confidence is extremely low.
Plus, in what reality would that be an either/or choice?
Several of the middle eastern countries.
All I am saying is don’t try to make this a referendum on abortion when it clearly is not.
“See eph, you hijacked the thread and caused desention on this great day”
Knova,
you are 100% correct. I was just giving Chek a preview of the spin she should expect from me this week. hahahahaha
They are being much more careful about exit polls these days, and I hope you wouldn’t trust any that were leaked. Exit polls that are not precint adjusted are frightfully inaccurate and you can’t precinct adjust until the polls are closed.
In short, just say “No” to Exit polls prior to the end of voting.
-Polaris
“In that vein, I do agree with Chek on one point: The pro-life effective litmus test needs to go (at least in it’s most uncompromising form). Being against partial birth abortiions is fine (most reasonable people are), being against Roe v Wade is fine too but it needs to be presented as a states and individual rights issue”
This is excellent Polaris. If Republicans take this view they will win a lot more elections.
NJ exit poll analysis updated throughout evening? (at njn.net)
http://www.monmouth.edu/newswire/default.asp?iNewsID=5288
HD,
Yankees 9
Phils 7
The expiration date for Pedro will be on Wednesday. Pettite will sucks also but it will come down to the back end of the bullpen for each team.
The Phils lose that battle sadly.
Had an awesome time at the game last night. Tried to post but could not get a signal.
216 – Aaagghhh. Knova places head in hands and shakes head ruefully.
210. You sure is wasnt you Marv?
The Christian Family Polling agency is not for sale!
Knova
Read back – you are encouraging it by discouraging EPH.
Did you enjoy the game, MD?
“Mr. Orthodox Jew, Joe Lieberman”
What is that supposed to mean exactly?
Would you call someone Mr. Conservative Christian?
I think that characterization sucks, frankly.
Who said anything about a sale? This is a hostile takeover baby.
Remember when Michael Corleone sent the goon to the casino to beat up the owner and tell him that their was a new boss?
Think along those terms. We are taking control of CFP, like it or not.
MD,
No big deal, I’ll sit back and wait for my turn bro
#222 Eph,
Yes sir, I’m sure that it wasn’t me. Besides that, they guaranteed me that they wouldn’t tell you.
Doc,
I did. You know what a fan I am of baseball. In my wildest dreams as a child, I never thought I would attend a WS game. Hit the game winning homer? Yes. Attend as a fan? No
It was a dream come true.
225. Jason,
Joe Lieberman “markets” himself as an Orthodox Jew. What religious Jew of any kind would vote against PBA is beyond me.
He is a “JCC Jew” and a fraud.
New thread!
Marv,
You and I were both at the meeting. We were told to keep our mouths shut but now that the cat is out of the bag, wtf.
There are some interesting people on their way to Gilbert, AZ.
228. I believe you Marv…for now
I was hoping the Phils would win to cheer you up… (sorry, Eph).
231. where?
Thanks Doc. See you on the new thread.
“Joe Lieberman “markets” himself as an Orthodox Jew.”
Lieberman does not market himself as an Orthodox Jew, he IS an Orthodox Jew. Your characterization of him as Mr. Orthodox Jew smells of racism and prejudice.
“What religious Jew of any kind would vote against PBA is beyond me.”
Feel free to criticize his vote. But who are you to decide what a religious Jew should or should not vote for.
“Lieberman does not market himself as an Orthodox Jew, he IS an Orthodox Jew.”
YEAH AND I’M A MUSLIM
Jason, you know Eph is Jewish, right?
I’m not espousing either sid…, just wanted to point out where he’s coming from.
I think that it’s acceptable to call Joe Liberman “Mr. Orthodox Jew” when one is specifically referring to actions that are unacceptable for devout Orthodox Jews, such as support for partial-birth abortion (if you are captioning a picture of Lieberman eating chicken-fried bacon that would work, too). It would be the same as to refer to Nancy Pelosi as “Ms. Conservative Catholic Grandmother” when highlighting her votes for abortion and against traditional marriage.
240. I bet you don’t know a damm thing about what Orthodox Jews can or cannot support so why don’t you keep your ignorance to yourself.