The Winner
Time to announce the winner of The Hedgehog Report 2009 Election Prediction Contest.
Well there were only six predictions that included Bill Owens being victorious over Doug Hoffman. All of these predictions were done prior to Dede Scozzafava dropping out, so not of these predictions were anywhere close to final result. Therefore, in choosing a winner, we will look at only the Virginia and New Jersey Election Results.
The final numbers I will be using are the following:
VIRGINIA
Bob McDonnell 58.64%
Creigh Deeds 41.23%NEW JERSEY
Chris Christie 48.9%
Jon Corzine 44.5%
Chris Dagget 5.7%
With the breakdown, the winner of The Hedgehog Report 2009 Election Prediction contest is….Big Joe. His prediction for the race was:
VIRGINIA
Bob McDonnell 58%
Creigh Deeds 42%NEW JERSEY
Chris Christie 49%
Jon Corzine 44%
Chris Dagget 7%
This equates to a total percentage difference of 3.3%. The runners up are Michael T, who had a total percentage difference of 4.3% and DrJay, who had a total percentage difference of 5.1%. By the way, if fully rounded numbers were used for the final results, Big Joe would have also have been the top prediction, tied with Michael T.
Congratulations to Big Joe.
I demand a recount!
congrats bog joe
Good work Big Joe. I pretty much nailed NJ, but underestimated the slaughter in VA. That’s something good to be wrong about
-Polaris
Congrats Big Joe.
Good job Big Joe. I’m happy with third. Was I the only one who had Daggett at 6%? I worked very hard on these two predictions… I guessed on NY-23.
Congrats big joe.
Congrats Big Joe
Are Eph and MD around today?
#5 Interesting to note that Daggett fell to exactly what the historic maximum was for third parties in NJ.
-Polaris
Polaris, I based it on that and the strong daggett numbers in several polls.
#10 Right. Didn’t really disagree with you much (I had Daggett at
but I thought that Daggett would get a bit more than 6.
Really shows that third party candidates don’t stand much of a chance in NJ even with all other factors being favorable.
-Polaris
So is Nate Silver all up in the grill of Carville for his totally bogus polling? I thought not.
“Are Eph and MD around today?”
MD was around. I haven’t heard any VOTE PRO LIFE screams so Eph is not around.
#13 Hey Carville and Dem Corp(se).
How’s that crow tasting?
-Polaris
“So is Nate Silver all up in the grill of Carville for his totally bogus polling? I thought not”
That would be a case of the pot calling the kettle black.
Congrats Big Joe!
Apparently Carville thought pushing Corzine was more important than getting it right. You called it right Polaris on Carville- Greenberg.
#17 Thanks but it wasn’t a very hard call given the completely unrealistic numbers hidden in the internals and given that Carville was a big Corzine donor.
-Polaris
They were only off on Daggett’s percentage by 10%, lol.
Fiorina Announces Bid for Senate
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125734892810628133.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories
I hope that she does a better job of keeping us awake than she did for McCain.
#19 Hey…off ten points…that’s pretty good right? (sarc)
-Polaris
I had slightly underestimated both races in my predictions. Had Christie winning, but only 45/44 and I had McDonnell but only 57/42.
Congrats Big Joe!
Gallup: 50/43
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
#23 The Obama-erosion continues.
How long will it be before Obama is upside down in all the polls?
-Polaris
Therefore, X gave orders that each day begin with formal prayer, to be led by the officers of each unit. He decreed as well ,that all profanity be banned…
who was X ?
25…never as long as CBS, CNN and NYT put out Obama “rescue” polls.
I imagine he hits 48 or 49 this week…
How long will it be before Obama is upside down in all the polls?
-Polaris
mid december
Michael Barone splains it to Lucy ala Ricky Ricardo:
In the 2nd congressional district, where Democrat Glenn Nye beat Republican incumbent Thelma Drake 52%-47%, McDonnell beat Deeds 62%-38%. In the 5th congressional district, where Democrat Tom Perriello beat Republican incumbent Virgil Goode 50.01%-49.85%, or a margin of 727 popular votes, the lowest in the country, McDonnell beat Deeds 61%-39%. In the 11th congressional district, where Democrat Gerry Connally won 55%-43% a district vacated by Republican incumbent Tom Davis, McDonnell beat Deeds 55%-45%. And the southwest, coal-producing “Fighting Ninth,” represented since 1982 by Democrat Rick Boucher, voted 67%-33% for McDonnell.
I cannot imagine that Congressmen Nye, Perriello, Connally and Boucher have not already accessed the websites which have shown the position of their constituents in a contest which, while like all governorship contests has its own specific features, was also in its contrast on issue positions reasonably congruent with those prevailing on national issues. And I can certainly respond with sympathy if any or all of these incumbents responded to these numbers with a two-word comment of which I will relay only the first word which is, “Oh.”
The 2009 election results are certainly not going to make it easy for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to round up the needed 218 votes for Democrats’ health care bills.
#27 You can only do that so long before even the big media polls lose all credibility and believability (even for Obama-bots)
-Polaris
#26 George Washington
#30 Obamacare must be stopped COLD!
Any HHRs rallying in DC tomorrow?
who was X ?
Comment by Tim V
George washington
#34 Not a suprise. A lot of period Generals were like that (regular services and no profanity). It helped enforce discipline. Of course he also believed in flogging soldiers for minor offenses as well.
George Washington is one of our founding fathers and was uniquely well suited to be our first president, but a great general he was not.
-Polaris
Woohoo! What do I win? I promise not to donate it to the DNC
Just kidding Dave. Thanks for running the prediction thread and for tallying up the results. I think we take you for granted sometimes so I do want to know that your work is appreciated.
I have to give a shout out to Polaris for sure. I think it was you Polaris who had suggested last year that voters don’t really change their minds in the weeks/months before an election (unless there’s a fundamental shift). So my predictions were almost exactly what I predicted back during the summer. The polls did show some movement (esp. in NJ) but Polaris’ principle held.
Clever, but the point of the question is what?
That the memebership in the military is contigent upon you volutarily surrendering many of your individual rights for the effiective functioning of the organization?
Thats a given really
+5 for Christie on election day.
congrats to Big Joe
If Pelosi can round up the votes look for a final vote on Saturday for the healthcare bill.
Great link on more practical lessons from yesterday’s slaughter of statists:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/11/024872.php
“1. The “independents” or “moderates” get it. That is, they seem to understand that the Obama agenda and those allied with it are bad news for the economy. Whether they understand HOW bad Obama is for the economy, and how much of a danger he poses to other things like, say, freedom, cannot be determined from last night’s results. But the independents are no longer nearly as taken in by the smooth talk as they were a year ago.
2. The era of succeeding by running against George Bush is over.
3. Intensity counts.
4. Far from being a post-racial figure, Obama is the most racially polarizing politician since George Wallace. The white vote shifted dramatically against the Dems. On the other hand, what did they expect after Van Jones, ACORN, and the rest of Dear Leader’s fellow “community organizers”?
5. Goldwater 2.0 is underway. That is, the Republican Party, which, in domestic policy, had been all but emasculated by Bush’s playing kissy-face with welfare state and corporate liberalism (No Child Left Behind, prescription drug benefit, cheap and easy money, bank bailouts, and more), is into the process of discovering that conservatism is its heart and its salvation.”
Polaris–
Do the results in New Jersey at least provide (for you)some kernal of optimism that this country will not tolerate Juan Peron-style fascism in elections and, on a larger scale, that Obama will not be able to impose fraud such that we no longer have truly free elections in this country?
I know you were concerned (as was I and as I continue to be) after election night 2008.
Dylan
DQ, I posted this below if you aren’t watching it.
“I want words of Christ, not Paul. Previously known as Saul, who held the coats of the people stoning St. Stephen (Acts 8:1)
So give me the words of the only pure man to live, not the interpretation from an ex persecutor.”
#36 Thank you. I pretty much hold to that principle too. Once the electorate starts paying attention and once minds are made up, it’s difficult to impossible to change those minds. That’s esp true of presidential elections after labour day.
2008 was a very unique case that I doubt any of us will see again in our lifetimes.
-Polaris
Six people here thought Owens would win? I must admit I was not among them.
I will say generally that whoever is in charge of the Republican Senatorial Committee really needs to get their act together and get GREAT candidated to run. By that, i mean whenever there is a possible GOP superstar that could run in a seat now held by a Democrat, they have to get that candidate to run. Let’s face it, having Libby Dole in charge of selecting candidates in 2006 and Ensign in 2008 was a debacle. They were out to lunch. THere is VERY LITTLE TIME for the GOP to get their acts together on this front. They must do it. I think the House will take care of itself either with or without Sessions.
Dylan
#40 Outlook cloudy. Ask again later.
Seriously though, in the issue of Obama the idealogue, I am both encouraged and frighted both at the same time. I am encouraged because it does seem like the moderate middle is waking up and understanding just what Obama (or more importantly his policies) really mean and that means a huge backlash is building.
I am frightened because if I can see it, I am sure Obama and his advisors can see it too and may well be motivated to move before the 2010 elections rather than wait for them. Steyn today in his editorial makes much the same point (regarding healthcare specifically which will the the cornerstone of the takeover). Steyn (and I) believe that Obama will unearth every political body and move as much as possible because he KNOWS he won’t have a friendly congress to work with after 2010.
-Polaris
btw, not trying to hijack, just don’t want DQ to dodge. More than happy to continue below.
#45 Styen is exactly correct.
The HC takeover now becomes a political imperative for the statist long term electoral survival. They need to grow that dependency!
Also, short term too many ascribe to the foolish theory of “D lost in 94 because they failed to pass Hillarycare”.
Plus any number of statist probably figure that 10 is a write off now anyways so they might as well go out with a “legacy” accomplishment like HC….
#47 Yep and I am virtually certain that’s how Pelosi and Obama will both read what happened. They get healthcare done right now or they never will.
-Polaris
link to Mark Styen’s comments:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmNiOWI0YTA0OTM3Y2M0NTk0ZTE5NWY1YjFiMTA0ZDU=
Obama may want to commit Hari Kari before 2010, but red State Dem’s do not.
Presidents come and go, but DEM Senators want to be in power for life.
#48 And all they need is a foot-in-the door with HC. Drop the public option, reign in enough of their own mushy moderate D. Wait for the government control and regulation to break private HC. 5 to 10 years, single payer/socialist HC = government dependency = electoral lock for the left!
Now is the time to fight harder then ever vs HC as we are at THE most critical juncture!
I think smart GOPers like Hatch, Pense, Bachman sense this hense the rally tomorrow!
#50 Normally I agree with you, but Obama and especially Emanuel Rahm are politicians of the Chicago School. If that means using any tactic (even criminal ones) to “persuade” reluctant senators, that is what they will do.
-Polaris
Polaris,
It depends on the standards by which you measure a great general. If you are measuring his tactical maneuvers and overall battlefield success against the British, he is not a great general, but victory depended on so much more than that. Washington’s main challenge was keeping his army together when it could have disintegrated so many times. It certainly took a great leader to get an army to trudge through the cold and cross the Deleware to gain victory at Trenton, a victory without which the Continental Army almost certainly would have dissolved. And how about the achievement of keeping the army intact through the winter of 1777-78 at Valley Forge, getting the British to evacuate Boston without firing a single shot in 1775 and his successful movement south undetected so he could achieve numerical superiority in the South and bring the British Southern Strategy to an end, culminating in the victory at Yorktown. And what about his bravery on the battlefield at Monmouth in June 1778 where he rallied his retreating troops to stand and fight, staving off a major disaster nearly engineered by the inept Gen. Charles Lee? There is much more to great generalship than tactical brilliance on the battlefield. While he even showed such brilliance on a few occasions, George Washington distinguished himself as a great general in so many other ways.
The down Ballot in VA and NJ really helped.
Cucinelli would blow out Webb in 2012.
Bolling will be the Governor in 2013.
The female LT.Governor will have name ID in NJ.
#51 I agree and I want to give a big thankyou and giant hat-tip to all those hard-core liberal representatives and senators that refuse to even consider any healthcare reform without a public option.
You have become our biggest allies in opposing Obama-care.
-Polaris
#50 But we are set up to get both!
Simply drop the public option and moderate D opposition disappears!
The public has been conditioned to think public option=government run HC.
The statists get their takeover and the D get to keep their seats!
#48—Well, if that is indeed true, then won’t 2010 be an even bigger wipeout which could in and of itself result in a repeal of any crazy-ass legislation that is passed without broad public support. hey, i know I know–it’s next to impossible to repeal legislation once it is passed.
More good news for conservatives from the election. Bill Foster(R) won the election for mayor of St. Petersburg, Fl in an open seat race. Any of the rest of you folks have new info from your area?. I’d still like to know about the Republican pick ups in the Virginia House of Delegates.
Polaris, that will not work. Rahm Emanuel is being vilified in D.C for blowing NJ. He took a body blow. Dorgan and Conrad are not on board, either is Ben Nelson.
These DEM politicians are Political lifers because they can do nothing else in Private Life. their seats are everything to them.
Polaris great job on NJ by the way.
#53 I think a Great General has to be both a great leader of men AND a great tactician. G. Washington was unquestionably a great leader of men. As a tactician, he was average at best (although unlike a lot of other period generals, he at least had the good sense to put together a solid staff and listen to them).
There was a reason why the British during the French and Indian war refused to give Washington a regular commission. He wasn’t qualified and his battlefield performances showed this.
-Polaris
Came really close in my local elections to ousting the Dems, but fell a couple of percentage points short. Christie’s coattails weren’t very long.
#59 I hope you’re right, but I am concerned that you might not be. Don’t underestimate the lengths that Obama will go to in order to get healthcare passed. It’s his key building block to a permanent Dem majority.
-Polaris
#55 Yeah, problem is the so-called “pricipled opposition” by the hard left congressionals is simply a front to keep their base appeased.
The public option was never in the cards anyways per the WH deal in May.
The election results simply give them cover to back to their base with a straight face and say “look, people dont want the public option”. Political cover they need now – they know full well the rest is just as massive a government HC takeover. Its simply covertly couched in a semi-private facade…..
These people knows this – there will be no liberal legislative opposition to HC without a public option thats in anyway meaningful….
Marv, GOP won in Greensboro, N.C. Stamford, Conn also.
Won a Bellweather State Senate seat in Mich.
Took Control of PENN SCOTUS
Won the Chairmanship of Westchester County, N.Y
Took control of Nassau-Long Island Government
#57 One short term wipeout they will accept to for such a huge power grab. And your correct, they know it will be impossible to ever be rid of short of full economic and social collapse.
Polaris Re#35 – Actually, Washington started out as a disaster, but learned from his mistakes and became a great general.
Polaris I agree. Even Regis Philbin gets it. On his show today, he said Corzine lost because the guys Washington are too worried about Healthcare and not the economy.
#64 Jason T
Thanks, Jason. Also, there was a GOP pickup in a Washington State legislature seat (according to Bill Kristol).
#66 Um, I still don’ think I’d ever call Washington a great General although he did learn and get better and at least had the sense to have a solid staff to help him (unlike many other period generals).
I would call Washington a great leader and great president, but that’s not the same thing.
-Polaris
Polaris, FDR tried even a bigger grab in 1938. He had a 70-22 Majority in the DEM Senate. He was pissed that GOP SCOTUS appointed Judges shot down his New Deal Bills.
He tried to double the size of the SCOTUS and threatened to run Primary Opponents against all DEM’s who opposed it. Well FDR went down in flames, all the rebel DEMS won , and FDR lost 87 house sEats in the Fall of that year.
#67 Indeed and it goes back to “Never let a crisis go to waste” said by none other than Rahm Emanuel himself. I am morally convinced that Obama doesn’t care about the economy at all except in so far as he can use the bad economy to force down programs that will insure that his vision of the Dem party is in power forever.
-Polaris
Marv, Maine was big too. It showed that the Church and NOM has more power than Cal Outsiders.
Brandon, I see Kelly Ripa’s father is the new DEM Camden County clerk
#70 Yes, but Obama clearly thinks he’s another FDR except this time he will “get it right”. Don’t think that Obama won’t try to suceed where FDR failed…Obama will merely use a different tactic.
Pray for the health of Scalia, Roberts, Alito, and Thomas. Pray HARD.
-Polaris
The Obumbler was not watching the election returns but a film on….
Polaris being from Chicago, Emanuel is not considered such a force here, more of a thug.
He has had terrible 2009.
1. He let Obama go to Copenhagen as he privately told the Chicago media that Chicago was a lock.
2. He tried to ram through Obamacare in july.
3. He was all over NJ, sending his puppetmaster to NJ for 6 days.
4. He also was involved with Blagoevich and the US senate Seat.
There were three big losers yesterday:
1) Obama
2) The Republican county chairs in NY-23
3) Tommy_boy
Does anyone know the results of CA-10? I’m sure Garamendi won, but I’d like to know if it was a blowout.
Just can’t get over Pelosi saying they won last night.
Gibbs says today the election in NY proved “anger will only get you 45%”
Could we please recruit a decent candidate next time so we don’t have to listen to this jackass gloat and mischaracterize what happened?
The political rumours in Chitown this morning from Capitolfax is that Dorgan, Conrad, and Nelson are a firm no go on Obamacare and have nothing to gain for voting for it. If pressured Nelson would switch parties and win easily in 2012
Polaris #74,
I will respectfully disagree with you on the George Washington issue, but I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments on SCOTUS. That is one of my biggest worries for the next three years. I am fairly certain none of those four will step down voluntarily while Obama is president, so I will pray for their continued good health.
Wes, it was 53-43 in Cal 10.
A good showing.
10 points Wes.
Jeff, let us hope they have the same doctor as Stevens.
#76 I hope you’re right, but for the kind of work that Obama is going to try to do to ram healthcare through, he will want a thug to do his dirty work.
-Polaris
The democrats didn’t WIN NY-23. The Republicans LOST it. The reason for the loss was multifactoral. Still, it should dispell the idea of supporting third-party candidates in elections, since clearly they tend to help elect Dems.
That’s a rather poor showing for Garamendi given the solid Dem bent of the district.
Big Joe is a Democrat right? Makes his picks doubly impressive its not easy to make accurate picks against your own party.
Phil, has anyone won a House Seat without living in the district.
Limbaugh says Hoffman had the highest vote total of any conservative Party candidate ever.
Said also that dede and Owens were on the ballot twice
With Dorgan and Conrad, it probably depends on how serious Hoeven is about running against one of them. If they don’t think he will run, they probably will go along with Reid.
emocracy Corpse sure did have some bad polls?
Does anybody think PPP “planted” that NY 23 poll, or do you think it was a phuq up?
#88 I agree. The GOP tailwind was clearly evident in CA-10, but the dstrict is gerrymandered in such a way to make a GOP victory there nearly impossible.
-Polaris
87. The third party loss could be a blessing in disguise. If Hoffman won, could have 40 or 50 of these races in 2010.
Yes, Jason. Here in NC in 1994, Walter Jones, Jr, won the seat he currently holds in congress.
Perhaps George Washington was the 1st Ike. You can say that General McN. who held Bastonge under incredible odds was a brilliant general. When you on the ground and in direct control of troops that reguires one type of general. It takes another type to decide on stragey and manage men and troops.
Washington did everything that a general has to do from scoops to Nuts. He rode battle lines and sent troops into battle. He had bullets whiz by him and horses shot under neath him. He devised battles and led troops into battle. Did he make battlefield mistakes. You bet. That’s war. Like a baseball manager he can send the troops in but they got to fight. The coach that holds Florida to 20 points and loses by 17 may have been a better coach that night then Urban Meyer. Who gets the “W”.
Washington faced greater array of tasks from 1776 to 1783 then any general in history. He organized, led, fianced, recruited, fought and housed an army where previousily no army existed. There is no historical example like Washington.
I might add that he walked away from his Army and allowed America to be a republic and not a dictorship. Every inch a general but was he a Patton or a Lee fighting text book battles. No then again he did have a text book army. He wrote the American army textbook. He did not have the advantage of 150 years of martial history that bradley and Patton had.
“Gibbs says today the election in NY proved “anger will only get you 45%”
What a deep thinker he is…did he say re NJ big bucks, liberal politics, and union thuggery only get you 45% too?
#92 I think PPP(D) screwed up and Jensen even had a mea culpa on his site this morning. He was trying to measure a race that was changing fefore his eyes and that was a mistake (and Jensen flat out said pretty much this).
-Polaris
How bad were the results for the Dems in the VA House of Delegates? I haven’t heard any hard numbers, but I’ve heard it was significant for the Republicans.
Jason, its got to be a rare occurance. Lampson didn’t live in Tx 22nd but moved in with a relative to run against a wounded Tom Delay.
Phil I am pretty happy. Maine was icing on the cake. The Gay brownshirts and their muscle tactics were rejected. The PENN SCOTUS race was huge
88. Obama won CA 10 by 30. Obviously some of the luster is off.
Wes last count was GOP +5 in VA House
#92. Well it’s pretty hard to poll a race when one candidate drops out in the middle. They probably should have just scrapped the poll, and they say just as much.
IL-Sen: Kirk Seeks Palin Endorsement
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/il-sen-kirk-seeks-palin-endors.html#comments
Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk penned a memo to Republican poobah Fred Malek hoping to secure an endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for his Senate candidacy, according to a copy of the memo obtained by the Fix.
After noting that Palin will be in Chicago later this month to appear on “Oprah”, Kirk writes that “the Chicago media will focus on one key issue: Does Gov[ernor] Palin oppose Congressman Mark Kirk’s bid to take the Obama Senate seat for the Republicans?”
Kirk goes on to write that he is hoping for something “quick and decisive” from Palin about the race, perhaps to the effect of: “Voters in Illinois have a key opportunity to take Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Congressman Kirk is the lead candidate to do that.”
Malek confirmed the authenticity of the memo in an e-mail exchange with the Fix.
Kirk’s memo is tangible evidence of the power of Palin’s endorsement in a Republican primary. Kirk, a moderate by voting record in the House, is clearly very concerned about the negative impact a Palin endorsement of one of his primary opponents could have on his chances at being the party’s nominee for the seat being vacated by appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D).
The memo comes on the heels of Palin’s decision to endorse Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman in the special election in New York’s 23rd district. Palin’s endorsement helped force state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) from the race although Hoffman ultimately came up short against Democrat Bill Owens.
I mean to say, drops out while the poll is in the field.
Wes,
How’s it going man, hahahah?
103- we knocked off 3, count em, 3 Dem incumbents in Fairfax Co (Nova)
Wes, not as bad as it could have been for them I guess. They loss 5 for sure with another one looking like a recount.
Phil, Corzine losing was awesome. governorships are now 26-24 DEM and we should hit 30 in 2010
The pubic option may have been a throw away red herring from day one.
Giving it up may entice the holdouts to jump aboard and support the rest of this goatrope, which in itself is an abomination, what with the mandates and all.
Watch leiberleft jump ship and support it if they dump the option.
I fear we will be hosed,in spite of the recent election.
Nick Lampson almost lost to a write-in after Democrats conveniently kept a Republican off the ballot, and then was booted out in the next election. He got to keep the seat slightly longer than Owens will.
Kirk is a Veteran. I think Palin will respect that. And their is no GOP opposition for Kirk anyways.
Bottom line about NY-23: The GOP screwed things up from the start by picking Scozzafava. Hoffman himself was no great candidate with little charisma and only a tangential connection to the district. The Dems were united while the GOP split its vote. Had Hoffman appeared alone on the ballot, then he may have won. I was dubious all along about Hoffman–although more so early on–because of his backing by the CFG. Although its ideals are worthwhile, the CFG has never had a reputation for supporting charismatic candidates who can satisfactorily present its message to the voters. That is something the CFG MUST work on if they want real tax, fiscal, and spending reform in Washington.
“The pubic option may have been a throw away red herring from day one.”
Not to the net roots…to them its the line in the sand. Over at KOS the “not one more dime until PO is passed” is the mantra.
94….a silver lining I thought of with the NY_23 is that it, along with CA_10, might give Pelosi just enough perceived ammo to press ahead with Obamacare and thereby result in a greater slaughter in 2010. Don’t get me wrong, I wish Hoffman had won, but it will probably work out in a year anyway. One thing for sure, the VA slaughterhouse and the NJ race have dwarfed the news on NY_23.
NJ was the Iceberg for Obamacare.
Yes, Lampson got really lucky. Courts ruled Republicans couldn’t replace DeLay on the ballot even after he dropped out. Write in still got 42% with no real campaign and no money.
It turned out ok. We have a really good man in there now.
Darrell let the DEMS vote on record for a 1 Trillion joke when people are losing their homes.
114…and I am convinced now that Dede never would have won in a matchup against Owens alone. She was a very, very poor candidate, regardless of her views. And she never had much money. Different voters would have shown up. Conservatives would have stayed home and Owens would have won in a low turnout.
If Obamacare passes the DOW will hit 5k.
Hoffman is done. New Blood. Hoffman needs to take one for the team
Jason,
Are we cool now? As for Kirk, I don’t think he’d write a memo and release it to the press regarding Palin unless he felt he was in some trouble in a primary.
I may not have been right about the initial amount of time I predicted it would take for Christie to beat Corzine, but I was definitely right about Christie’s winning–as an aside, because of the reasons I stated:
1) Incumbents as unpopular as Corzine don’t win.
2) Corzine’s hypernegative campaign which gave New Jersey voters no reason to vote for him had the same result as all such campaigns–his loss.
3) Indies–the largest voting bloc in New Jersey–swung heavily away from Corzine.
So, while I was wrong in saying earlier this year Christie would win in a half hour, I was definitely right about his winning. I’m proud of myself for that one.
Amazing though that a 30 point win among Indies, only gets you a 4 point win.
The GOP needs a better candidate than Hoffman–preferably one who lives in the district–in 2010.
But Wes, you wanted Corzine to win so that NJ could complete its collapse
You’re right, Knova. I WANTED Corzine to win. I never EXPECTED him to win.
Remember the Daggett effect, Brandon. That kept Christie from topping 50%.
So who do you want to win the World Series and who do you think will win it? That’s right you aren’t a baseball guy, but same idea.
#129. I’m not too sure about that. I think most of Daggetts voters would have gone to Corzine if they were forced to.
123. Tommy he is not. I am voting for him and I am a Conservative. We know the score here in Blue IL. Kirk has a great shot to win and my friends like his military background.
We have destroyed ourselves with GOP civil wars in the past which have given us crap like Dick Durbin. Aint gonna happen with Kirk
If I had to guess, I’d say the Yankees will pull it out. As far as whom I want to win, I really don’t care one way or the other.
Go Phillies.
I hate A-Fraud
Remember two words out there in Illinois, Jason: Al Salvi.
Tommy we are cool. You manned up last night
#131 In the end I think you’re right….those that voted. I think if they were forced, most Daggett voters that were left probably wouldn’t have voted. Remember that those that voted for Daggett were the devoted Daggett “true believers” and those weren’t likely to vote for either other guy.
-Polaris
Nobody will be fooled in thinking NY-23 was a vote for Obamacare, especially since Owens is in favor of the bill but without the public option. The Blue Dogs won’t see anything in NY 23 to comfort them.
Right Wes. Salvi. It did work one time though.
In 1998 Arch Conservative Pete Fitzgerald beat the RINO in the Primary and then won the General against Mosely Braun.
But he had to spend 40 Million of his trust fund to do it.
The Personification of Evil Itself, Dick Durbin, is what the GOP gets when it insists on ideological purity for its candidates. I noticed Limbaugh was crowing about social issues today on his show. He overlooked one thing: While the Republicans who won were by and large social conservatives, they largely avoided addressing those issues. Taxes and economics were the driving force for the GOP wins yesterday. Future GOP candidates for office would do well to remember that.
#132 Jason T.
I’m with you Jason T. When Kirk was asked about his Cap and Tax vote, he said that he voted for the narrow interests of his district, but that as a Senator, he would vote no because Illinois is a coal producer. (I’ll accept that as his answer and will not try to put to fine a point on it.)
I knew Daggett would fade as a Third Party, just like Hoffman.
He also had the advantages of running in a year when the GOP swept most statewide offices over there, Jason, and facing a scandal-tarred, wildly unpopular incumbent. The amazing thing about that race is that it was only a 51-49 victory for Fitzgerald.
Marv, the IL-10 has become a Liberal RINO combine. He voted with his district. It is on Lake Michigan and a big green Area.
If this doesn’t make you want to stop Obama, nothing will.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Wes, it also brought us George Ryan the GOP Party destroyer.
I could have posted this last week but was euphoric over Hoffman. Here’a story about the guy who got robbed of the GOP nomination by Dede:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/66001-hoffman-ahead-as-wacky-race-in-ny-23-reaches-finish-line-
Matt Doheny who cheated out of the GOP nomination by dede is still interested, lives in the district and has cash
Pragmatism is what the GOP needs in elections. No, I don’t mean electing Democrats in Republican clothing like Scozzafava but putting forth candidates who will support the party on salient fiscal and economic issues even though the demographics of the places they hope to represent may force them to buck the party on issues like abortion and gay marriage.
I think rush needs to realize that Conservatives need to win first and then preach Ideology.
145 – WOW. That is worse than I thought. The unfunded liablity number I always heard was $54 trillion. We need to do something now, if anything can be done at this point.
Has Democracy Corpse apologized for there polling too, Polaris?
#144 Jason T.
Thanks for the info. Cap and tax will probably not be voted on by the full Senate anyway, certainly not after the 2010 election, so Kirk will not be given a chance to vote on the issue.
DedE was just awful. Has she been dumped yet anyone??
Unfortunately no one could see that at the time, Jason. I’m sure the Republicans would have worked to elect a different candidate for Governor–maybe Kustra–had they seen the enormous damage Ryan would do to the party during his term. I’m pretty sure the Dems are feeling the same way right now about Blagojevich.
Exactly, Jason.
Looks like GOP frontrunners for federal office are terrified of getting primaried by conservative opponents. They should be. Kirk’s cap-and-trade explanation seems that he made his vote based on the political winds at the time, not what his district’s interests were. Smart politician trying to get Palin’s endorsement.
Rdel, there is your man. Hoffman needs to step aside and not run 3rd party.
Charlie Cook has moved Colorado and Pennsylvania Senate races to toss-ups.
Arkansas Senate downgraded to Lean Dem.
Some others here: http://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings_updates
“Has Democracy Corpse apologized for there polling too, Polaris?”
Yeah, Carville said Corzine had guaranteed him he would steal as many votes as it took to make the poll look good and left him out to dry.
Regarding yesterday’s elections though, I’m deeply impressed with McDonnell. I definitely see him as a future candidate for Senate and maybe even a presidential contender in a decade or so.
The option is a flak catcher designed to keep attention away from the other draconian aspects of the bill.
Knowing that they will have their butts handed to them in 2010, the neo marxists WILL NOT give up on hellcare. They will only redouble their efforts, as they know this is their last hooorah on the matter after the next election anyway, so why not forge ahead and build themselves a lasting monument, (to their own stupidity)
Socialized medicine has always been the crown jewel of the collectivist mindset,and they see this as their last opportunity to fulfill their marxist/leninist blueprint.
Phoenix, Kirk is a great guy. I have met him. He is Not a DeDe.
The best shot we have at that seat and a strong filibuster.
Wes, Cuccinelli will beat Webb in 2012.
#145–All I can say is “Bye Bye Dollar” and “Hello Zimbabwe”
We are going to have hyperinflation in this country that will make Weimar/Zimbabwe look tame. People just don’t get it and by the time they realize it, it will be too late. btw, Gold is amost $1100/oz.
“WOW. That is worse than I thought. The unfunded liablity number I always heard was $54 trillion. We need to do something now, if anything can be done at this point.”
Right, the GOP should have that debt clock featured in lighted billboards everywhere, that would be a good investment
158. If Lincoln votes for HC she is done.
Cmon Huckabee you wimp. The seat is yours
Phil #109,
How much more could the Republicans win in Virginia? They now hold 60 seats in the House of Delegates. This isn’t Massachusetts, after all, where there is no organized opposition to keep legislators on both sides honest (at least somewhat) and fearful of the next election. Republicans clearly rule the day right now (except for a slight disadvantage in the state Senate), but there is still strong, fairly well-organized opposition from the Democrats. Virginia is a two-party state with spirited competition for power. That’s a good thing in a democracy.
Phil, I say this as someone who is empathically relishing yesterday’s results in Virginia.
Kirk has three advantages in next year’s elections:
1) A lightweight opponent in the primary who has invoked Al Salvi of all people as the template for his campaign
2) A tide against the opposing party
3) A likely candal-tarred incumbent
That said, Kirk is not automatically the Senator and will definitely have to work hard to outpace the Daley Machine.
#161–I’m not so convinced that even if they pass it, it couldn’t be repealed. First of all, you don;t know whether states will be able to opt out. Many have said they will. Additionally, and empirically, look at what happened in Hawaii several years ago when they socialized health care for children. The program went bankrupt and the legislature was forced to repeal it. All I am saying is that a GOP supermajority in congress can pass legislation over Obama’s veto.
163 – I honestly don’t see Webb running for another term. The guy has options (ie he is wealthy) and he is a flake. He was a total accident and the confluence of events that led to his election in 2006 will not be there in 2012.
Jeff good post
Has anyone else noticed how I tend to use Al salvi’s name as a political epithet?
Who do you think will be most likely to run for Webb’s seat in 2012, Knova?
2012 and 2014 will be huge GOP Senate Years.
That is why 2010 is about getting a decent Filibuster
Jason,
Then why did Kirk release/leak the memo to Political reporters? It seems to be a strange move unless he was feeling some heat among the right.
So are we to assume you want Al Salvi to run for the seat then, Tommy?
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/04/inevitable-gop-senate-candidate-applies-for-palin-endorsement/
Let’s start a draft Huck campaign for the Senate. It would serve a double purpose, get rid of Blanche and get rid of Huck for Prez.
Wes,
I like the Hughes guy from everything I’ve seen.
No expert on Virginia politics, but could Allen make a comeback? Even the WAPO can’t get any more macaca mileage.
Webb is funny.
Have you seen him on TV.
HE answers each questioning by
Grunting, Groaning, and saying “Iraq.”
Huckabee’s uninterested in running for Senate, Jason. His ego makes the local Galactic Cluster look small, so to him the only office to run for is the presidency. As far as Lincoln goes, every Republican in the race against her is competitive or ahead at the moment, so I think she’s gone either way.
Right, the GOP should have that debt clock featured in lighted billboards everywhere, that would be a good investment
But then what do they do about it. Those numbers are incomprehendable.
What the GOP needs to do is come out with a budget that says our priorities in order are the following:
1. Pay interest on our debt
2. Pay some portion of our debt down (1% 5% whatever)
3. Pay those people who are depending on previous promises (seniors, a political necessity, and the right thing to do anyway)
4. Pay for an adaquate military
5. Zero out all functions that are not a part of the constitution
6. No more deficits and but no tax cuts either. Use any excess to pay down more debt.
We really need to get on an austerity budget or it is going to collapse sooner than latter.
Tommy, Kirk is doing that for the General. He wants no stay at Home Conservatives.
Tommy, Hughes said he plans to run the way Salvi did. I can only assume that means you wnat Giannoulias to be the next Senator from Illinois.
Are you a professional journalist? You write very well.
180. why Not? Nixon did
Good post, Knova.
173 – I couldn’t tell you at this point. it would have to be someone with statewide appeal that is for sure.
I doubt Allen ever runs for anything again.
I’m pretty much over being irritated about NY23, the final margin appears to be 49-46-5. The big kills were the three seats in VA, and the NJ Gov/Lt. Gov seats, as well as the VA house pickups. To further expound on VA…..it was the first time in history that the same party won all three seats and McDonnell won by the largest margin for a Republican in the history of the state.
Irrespective of Pelosi’s spin, the moderate Dems in the House know that their party was killed last night and a vote for Obamacare will be fatal for them in their districts. Obamacare is a very tough sell for Pelosi right now, expecially because of hardening opposition in the Senate. (See Jason T.’s #81.)
In addition, there was a Republican candidate for a seat in the Virginia Houses of Delegates who defeated the incumbent Dem in SW VA. His main issue was opposition to cap and tax; SW VA is a coal region.
Whom was Crasty addressing with that question?
180 – Allen is dead politically. And the truth be told, no one can really name an accomplishment from him while he was in the Senate.
Well ok, but people don’t want to read a lot of mumbo jumbo either. The debt clock is a good visual tool, everyone can understand they are getting screwed. So a combination of the clock and a short explanation perhaps.
One thing I’m wondering about Deeds’ political future: Sinc ehe failed to carry his hom region, is it possible Deeds could be defeated when his seat opens up in 2011?
192 -Crasty and others are spambots. Don’t click their links.
Sounds like the story where a woman says loudly in a crowded room “the tie is crooked on the best looking man here” and every guy in the room adjusts his tie.
“Does anybody think PPP “planted” that NY 23 poll, or do you think it was a phuq up?”
—
I’m discounting the plant theory and going with a phuqup, it was a wild weekend\couple days in an already odd race.
Also -
I’m not with many of the voices here getting down on Hoffman. If he wants to run in the primary next year I’m totally fine with that, he’ll have a better idea what to expect, actual time to setup a campaign (assuming he were to win the primary). Yes he should move 25 or so miles and get a residence in the district he was sliced out of last time it was redrawn (funny enough it’ll likely be re-drawn again after 2010), and take a couple candidate\media relations training classes. Average joe blow dude from outside the district that had nearly no support 3 weeks before the election pulls 46% of the vote on election day against an opponent who was well funded and organized for months? That doesn’t strike me as as much to be ashamed of folks.
Having said that if in the primary a better candidate comes along next year, and one might, then so be it. If one is looking to be mad at someone over ny-23 it’s mrs.doo-doo head, the idiot gop chairs, and the other idiots we have at the RNC, NRCC who handeled this whole situation about as badly as they could, not Hoffman or his supporters.
-2cents
Rahm Emanuel did one thing right. He saw Allen as a rising Star and had his DEM friends at WAPO sabotage him.
Allen was a popular Governor, beat Chuck Robb and had a Family Name. Allen would have been the nominee in 2008 and Taken VA, NC, and FL. He would have lost but would have saved Senate Seats.
Hawk well said. He deserves the right to run, but the out of district is baggage.
Actually, Jason, Schumer was the one who took Allen out in 2006. Of course it would never have happened had Allen kept his mouth shut when he saw Siddarth filiming. Ann coulter went to great pains to defend Allen and point out Webb’s hypocrisy, but ultimately the problem lay with Allen himself. He blew the 19-point lead he had over Webb. No one else was responsible although WashPo did what it could to help.
So who was the best pollster this cycle?
VA
Survey USA was closest 18% win vs actaul 17.4%
PPP was second at 14%
Beloved Rasmussen was
NJ
PPP was closest at 6% win vs actual 4.4%
Survey USA was second at 3%
NYC
Survey USA was closets at 11% but still far off from the actual 5%
(No PPP poll)
Quinipiac was second at 12%
So who was the best pollster this cycle?
VA
Survey USA was closest 18% win vs actaul 17.4%
PPP was second at 14%
Beloved Rasmussen was
NJ
PPP was closest at 6% win vs actual 4.4%
Survey USA was second at 3%
NYC
Survey USA was closets at 11% but still far off from the actual 5%
(No PPP poll)
Quinipiac was second at 12%
http://www.ncsl.typepad.com
Good breakdown of Legislative races last night
199 – WAPO whacks all GOP candidates, with a couple of exceptions. True that Allen beat Chuck Robb, but at the time Robb was going through a little scandal of his own (”back rubs” by a former Miss VA. He had survived macacca. He went from +2 to -2 in 2 days when someone on his staff decided that it would be a good idea to make some of the more lurid quotes from Webb’s fictional books a campaign issue. I mean, I voted for him, but when that shit came out all I could say is WTF are they thinking. That was the killer. If not for that I think that 7000 votes swing the other way. He may not have been Presidential material after that but he would be a Senator for life.
So who was the best pollster this cycle?
VA
Survey USA was closest 18% win vs actaul 17.4%
PPP was second at 14%
Beloved Rasmussen was next at 13%
NJ
PPP was closest at 6% win vs actual 4.4%
Survey USA was second at 3%
Rasmussen was also +%
NYC
Survey USA was closets at 11% but still far off from the actual 5%
(No PPP poll)
Quinipiac was second at 12%
So looks like its worth paying close attention to Survey USA, PPP and Rasmussen, and disregard the rest.
Good point, Knova, but “macaca”–which, although archaic, is a racially demeaning term–was what started Allen’s downfall.
Knova the VA House is now looking like 61 GOP including Independents pending a recount
Too bad Nate Silver launched a campaign to discredit Strategic Vision. It would have been interesting to see how they would ahve handicapped things.
I am not sure Allen would have been the nominee but I agree the macaca thing was way overblown. That being said it was a dumb mistake by a seasoned politician. Unfortunately today the PC police are going to be on you like flies on a fresh turd especially if you are a Republican. Different standard for Democrats, for them the MSM explains “what they meant to say”.
So has anyone heard if there will be any party switches by Dems in the VA Senate? Before the election, there was some talk of that if McDonnell won big.
Wes, Am I overreaching or do I see a trend with all these big and samll Blue state wins for the GOP?
State House seats in NH, and Wash. Mich state senate
PENN SCOTUS, NJ etc….
Wes I heard that 2 Dem Senators were talked out of it by Tim Kaine over the summer.
Silver was right on NY-23 though. Wrong on the Butt Pirates in Maine
207 – I think that we had been through the story before, but Allen on several occasions sat down with “macacca” since he was a steady presence at his rally’s. They actually had a bit of an affinity for each other, and that is why he pointed him out at the rally in question.
Webb was closing initially on his Iraq stance (remember that he had a son there and wore his boots on the campaign trail.) He was of Scottish descent and was therefore a bit more popular than the normal statewide Dem candidate in the Appalacian regions. Macacca hurt, no doubt, but was not fatal. Allen had survived it.
#214 Not quite. Nate Silver was hopeful about NY-23 (from his PoV) and made a prediction that did in the end turn out to be right, but don’t forget that he CHANGED his prediction just hours before election day to Hoffman.
So no, Nate didn’t see NY-23 any better than anyone else.
-Polaris
208 – yeah i think that there were two races that had incumbent Dems at 50/50
No, Jason. The trend is definitely in the right direction. What yesterday tells us is that in the current environment the GOP can resurge from its recent doldrums with solid candidates and a consistent message of less government intrusion into people’s lives. What it also tells us–via NY-23–is that the GOP must be united to do this. Via CA-10, it tells us even Dems in areas solidly partisan for them are potentially in trouble with the right GOP candidate and a united opposition.
One narrative I have heard on TV (even Fox) or read in the HHR report is that Obama made 5 trips to NJ on behalf of Corzine. This is a huge amount of political capital squandered as not only did Corzine lose, but Obama’s trips did not move the meter one percentage point. I can’t recall a sitting president ever expending that much for a candidate (someone chime in here and correct me if you can). You have to have an oversized ego to want to be President, but Obama’s is huge and will be (already is?) his undoing.
TARP II and Card Check were wake up calls for the American people, Cap & Trade was an alarm bell, and Obama Care was the panic button. The GOP is going to do great next year.
Make that “One narrative I haven’t heard”
“Too bad Nate Silver launched a campaign to discredit Strategic Vision”
You think they didn’t poll because of Nate Silver???? Why should they care what he says…this guy is a baseball statistician who elevated himself to pollmaster by saying every Democrat would win on a year they were destined to win. His biggest call on this election was that the gay marriage measure would lose easily (wrong). He also said Hoffman would win. He called VA (duh!) and hedged on NJ. His 15 minutes were up last year.
Poerlineblog thinks 2010 will be more like 1982 when Reagan lost 27 House Seats. I think more like 35 to 40
Then explain to me why SV never did another poll after the Silver debacle, Jason.
Look guys besides live in the Obama zombie capital, I also have Teh RINO’s at Real Clear Politics and Nate Silver.
These wind bags thought Chicago was a Olympic lock
#223 I think Wes is right. SV is getting ready to sue Nate Silver into bankruptcy, but the one thing they can’t do is potentially give Silver any more ammunition hence the moratorium on polling.
-Polaris
Good point, Tom. Did anyone else notice last night it took the networks almost an hour–even Fox–to call Virginia even though the GOP was up huge in all three races early on and there was no realistic way the Dems were going to come from behind? I mean, in the Senate race last year, they called the seat for Warner within five minutes of polls closing.
tom that says it all. The reason NJ was the election of 2009.
#219 Tom
Obama has a poor record when campaigning for anything other than himself. He lost the Olympic bid for Chicago after his trip to Copenhagen, he lost all three seats in VA after campaingning for Deeds, and he lost two seats in NJ after campaigning for Corzine.
32- yes, you are correct, the answer was George Washington.
KH- I discount that as well. They just got it wrong on NY 23. I think that Hoffman needed more time. He went from 20 percent to 40 percent quickly. The R party ran ads against him before Mazzola dropped out.
“So has anyone heard if there will be any party switches by Dems in the VA Senate? Before the election, there was some talk of that if McDonnell won big.”
The guys who were going to switch all lost….
One other thing I noticed during the returns: Despite being consistently described as a “nailbiter,” the NJ Governor race had Christie ahead all the way. Even at the moment when Fox finally put the checkmark next to Christie’s name, the anchors were saying it was “too close to call.” You’d think someone would feed info to the talking heads to prevent screwups like that.
Shaftan nailed Christie’s percentage in NJ at 49%.
#226 Wes,
I think that the decision by Fox to hold off on the VA calls was to hold onto the ratings. If anyone else would have called it, Fox would have called VA even before the other network finished.
So, the Obumbler has no time to read the latest intelligence report on Iraq or listen to the reports from his General. He only has time to watch a movie about himself.
The VA Senate isn’t up till 2011, Jason. Good reply though.
231 – VA senate was not up last night. And except for here I have not heard that rumor.
I did notice FNC was very hesitant to call NJ. Christie had a 100k lead 50-46 with most Corzine counties counted and Shep was still saying “neck and neck”, “too close to call”, “down to wire”…they must of had some really bad exit poll data saying Corzine was going to win.
Maybe so, Marv. I just remember watching it the whole saying, “Why don’t you just go ahead and call this thing, you idiots?” I even texted a buddy of mine in Cali a message wondering if the White House hadn’t paid off the networks to hold off on the calls despite the fact that the winners were obvious from the beginning.
GOP won the Mayors race in Manchester, NH also
238 can’t blame FOX, they were waiting for ACORN also.
The early voting hurt Hoffman also
They were still saying “neck and neck” when the checkmark appeared next to Christie’s name. Someone should have said, “We’re about to call this thing” before Smith made that statement.
#238 I think they had bad exit poll data along with the fact that Obama’s JA rating was 57%. That combination made the tabulated results look unrepresentative.
-Polaris
“Shaftan nailed Christie’s percentage in NJ at 49%.”
My new hero. If he wants to buy 538 when Silver gets hit by a huge lawsuit and needs to conjure up some cash I will send Shaftan a check.
#239 Wes,
Yep, I pretty much noticed the same thing. I still think that it was a ratings play, except in Shep’s case. He probably hoped that NJ would actually turn into a nail biter.
So, the actual results are less accurate than the exit polling now, Phil?
GOP won control of Nassau County Long Island, made gains in Suffolk.
I don’t think it was Shep, although he is a weasel. I think it was exit poll data.
The GOP also won a huge race solidly in Westchester.
Jason, won the chairmanship of Westchester county also.
Rush was on this. Guy who won does a Catholic Radio show and is Arch Conservative. Beat a 12 year Incumbent by 16%
#248 jason,
Yeah, you’re probably right about the exit poll data.
Shep shares a closet with David Geffen’s boyfriend , Keanu Reeves.
Where are Eph and MD?
How are the races looking now on Intrade? Does it still show Corzine above 50???
“I want words of Christ, not Paul. Previously known as Saul, who held the coats of the people stoning St. Stephen (Acts 8:1)
So give me the words of the only pure man to live, not the interpretation from an ex persecutor.”
Comment by 2012NSE —
2012, it is a mistake to pay less attention to the words of Paul than to the words of Christ. His words are scripture, and all scripture is inspired by the Holy Spirit. They are words from God NOT man.
Ace has outdone himself. The title of that thread had me in tears laughing.
http://minx.cc/?post=294385
Democracy Corps is out with a new poll for 2013. Corzine 56%-Christie 39%
The only disappointments for the Republicans were the losses in the congressional races, and given the undelrying fundamentals of each race, those are actually areas where the Republicans have realistic chances next year.
I like that, Phoenix.
The GOP is clearly on a roll. Now don’t overreach. Let’s be the adult voice in this conversation. McDonnell showed us the way.
Fox misstated Obama’s JA in Virginia. The networks were saying 52% but the Fox exit poll showed 48/51.
Now, I’m still worried that Obama was at 48% approval in a 51-43 McCain/Obama electorate. However, it’s a lot less worrisome than the 52% that was reported by the networks dishonestly or simply erroneously earlier in the night.
Agreed, Tom. McDonnell is the candidate the GOP needs to emulate next year. Even Hoffman, despite his strong showing, was something of a disappointment. Hoffman’s loss though shows a person of his beliefs with a united GOP at his back, a bit of charisma, and a compelling message would be a great candidate for races like that.
#261. That’s because they were using the unweighted exit polls, and not the weighted ones.
TB, didn’t someone say the exits showed McDonnell with a 10-point lead though?
Forty-eight percent is four points below Obama’s electoral percent there last year, Tommy. That’s good in that it indicates a downward trajectory.
#264 (and Christie tied 47-47)?
264. Tommy Boy
When will the exits be released?
Jason, I thought he linked to someone’s twitter from a network. I might be getting mixed up.
Now, Jason, let’s not beat up too much on Tommy. He has made a series of exceptionally bad calls, but his heart’s in the right place. I’m not sure he’ll ever be willing to admit he was wrong though.
An exit poll would not be the appropriate measure of job approval, or would it?
Here are the NJ exits:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/04/nyregion/1104-nj-exit-poll.html
The double cheeseburger for Christie was yummy. Had to have it with garlic fries though. The Zantax appears to be working.
“Republicans will overwhelmingly reject the Democrats’ healthcare reform measure when it is reaches the House floor, according to a key lawmaker.”
The headline at Ace is good, but I don’t know about the sentence above. If about 40 Dems don’t join them its meaningless.
Interetsing. I just looked at a map of the New Jersey election, and Daggett actually carried a county. Weird.
Actually Sean Hannity hit the panic button early on NJ.
Tina, I think if the representatives of one party were overwhelmingly rejected by the voter son Election Night, then that is an extremely accurate reflection of the voters’ view of the President’s job approval rating. Anyone agree with me on this?
Jason not meaningless. With no GOP cover, the DEMS own it and the DOW which will hit 5k along with 15% unemployment
Brandon, are those exits finalized (tweaked)?
By the way, congratulations on your efforts paying off. That must feel especially good.
277 – Come on wes, this was all about local issues. At least that is what they told me at Kos
Hmmm…white men Christie 63-29. White voters 59-34.
Wes,
48/51 is a good in a 51/43 McCain/Obama electorate. The 2012 Virginia electorate won’t consist of a 51/43 McCain/obama electorate. The 48% approval with yesterday’s electorate suggests that Obama is around 51-52% approval with a presidential year electorate in the state. Am I wrong on this point? I would love to be wrong.
#261 Tommy_Boy
In today’s hyper-sensitive, politically correct environment, a pollster can get a fairly accurate pre-election poll using the IVR method, but not necessarily a live pollster. That’s why even exit polls are suspect, IMO. RAS has Obama at 48-52 today and a 45-49 re-elect number published yesterday. You’d have to figure that if RAS polled VA today that Obama would be mid-high 40’s.
Well, no one can ever say New Jersey is “fool’s gold” again, right, Tina?
“Republicans will overwhelmingly reject the Democrats’ healthcare reform measure when it is reaches the House floor, according to a key lawmaker.”
I don’t think so. I think that was Salem that was late reporting so it was colored differently. A guy with 5% can’t carry a county.
Do you believe everything you hear, Knova?
#275. Daggett didn’t carry a county. What the heck are you talking about.
http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34816/christie-says-first-executive-order-will-freeze-unfunded-madates-and-regulations
Maybe so, Jason. I just looked at the map though, and it listed one county in the Daggett column. Of course as you say, it wa sprobably because of late reporting.
Underlying factor from last night is that GOP picked up 2 new faces for the Party and the Network Talk Shows. From 2 different Regions
whoops..wrong quote…i was referencing the comment that Daggett carried a county.
Wes, I have explained that in other threads, and btw I ultimately came out for Christie.
Dagget only picked up the clep
286 – absolutely, especially if it is on the internet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:New_Jersey_Gubernatorial_Election_Results_by_County,_2009.svg
Additionally, in the context of a President Election, it is applicable.
It is also applicable that 50 percent of NJs want more government.
So the R candidate for President will be phuqed next time.
I was just reading the colorcoding on this map, Brandon. It indicates a Daggett win in one county although as Jason pointed out, that’s probably because of late reporting.
#290 Jason T.
Are you talking about McDonnell and Christie.
hmmm… ID was D+10 in NJ. I think I read R+4 in VA (37-33).
And it was not a referendum on Obama. However, did you see drudge – and his article on how “racial” politics played a key role.
The return of Hate Whitey…
I also hit the party id- for NJ – I said +10 for the Ds.
I wasn’t serious about saying Daggett won a county. The map needs to be updated so as not to indicate such an erroneous conclusion though.
298. Yes Marv.
That’s not color-coded for Daggett. It’s gray because they didn’t have any results yet when they made the map.
Corzine carried only seven counties. That’s not good at all for him.
Brandon, see post 302 please.
Marv, one thing is a given in 2010. the GOP will take a majority of Governorships. It has been the GOP Power Base for years.
Who did win that county by the way?
The exit poll seems to imply that without Daggett,et al, on the ballot, a net 4% would have stayed home and 2% would have gone to Corzine, making it 49-46 Christie.
Christie won Salem by 7 points.
One thing the R party needs to do is win some House and Senate seats next year. They can not continue with STeele bleeding House seats.
Here is the NJ data by county
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2009&fips=34&f=0&off=5&elect=0
#303 Jason T.
In addition to McDonnell and Christie, we have three stars who will show up in races down the road….Bolling and Cuccinelli in VA and Lt.Gov. Guadagno in NJ. Guadagno is an attractive and well spoken lady who is a potential US Senator.
#309 actually that’s poorly worded… you would then have to inflate the percentages for the missing electorate, which would probably make it about 51+ to 48+
Congrats Big Joe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#307 Jason T.
Roger that!
Hi, Benny !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here is a radical thought for all you HHRs on here who are ripping the GOP and Hoffman as a candidate…
The D Owens WAS A PRETTY SOLID canidate!
He appears to talk a moderate game and is a military retiree in a district who largest employer is FT Drum NY (think many DOD employees and Military retirees):
http://www.observer.com/4850/meet-bill-owens-dccc-approved-non-democrat-house
I think this guy was a smart pick by D to play to the military element in the district or at least blunt that vote.
The other side gets to think too and Owens was a solid choice
NOTE: this does not constitute any form of endorsement of Owens goofy statist views; its simply a comment on the politics of the situation lol
Corzine only got 25% of the vote in several counties. He was decimated in Ocean and Monmouth.
#319. Jason, I am still shocked by some of the counties. Christie won Middlesex by almost 5, Obama won it by 30.
Owens wasn’t popular at Kos, in fact they were urging a vote for Dede. Of course now he is their main talking point, there is no other.
Big Joe,
I am still waiting for the sales commission on the BP stock in the 30s. It is not 57.58.
Hi Benny.
Owens is a No vote for the public option and could turn out to be a Ben Nelson type Democrat.
Congrats to Big Joe. Funny how poorly we did as a group. Hoffman was a tough one to call. I am thrilled to have been wrong on Jersey.
MD
Howdy!
the republican endorsed independant candidate in dayton ohio defeated rhine mclin the god-awful mayor who was running for her 3rd term. she happened to be at one time the ohio democratic party chair
How is this for a shellacking in VA
Rockingham County
McDonnell 16,516 Deeds 4,599
78/21
In Toledo, an Independent candidate beat the Dem for mayor.
318…another reason for my assertion that ScozzaTheHutt would not have won had the Conservative Party never fielded a candidate.
#321 Yeah, amazing how popular Owens has become with the hard left when they have nothing else to say. Owens wasn’t just disliked by Kos, he was villified by Kos early on.
-Polaris
327. Cool add that to Greensboro, N.C Manchester,NH, Stamford, CONN
and earlier in this year Alberquerque
Yup, she was heading for defeat.
It still sickens me that the R party had run ads against Hoffman- before Mazzola dropped out.
Polaris, Owens has no reason to cave into Pelosi. She cannot primary him, and his only hope in 2010 is to vote against HC
The stock market had a pretty substantial sell off today. It still closed up, but well below its high for the day.
Friday we get the new job #s. I will no be forecasting.
Christie’ win stops the Marxist Swine Flu from eating the Northeast.
The botox has creeped into Pelosi’s Brain.
Pro-abortion Health Care Vote for Saturday.
Barone says DEMS in deep trouble at the Weekly Standard.
It sounds to me as if Owens could have been a moderate northeastern Republican, rather a Democrat, if someone from the RNC had talked to him right after his military retirement. (Eisenhower became a Rep in a similar fashion)
#338 Jason T.
Link please?
http://www.weeklystandard.com
Hi Tina
I am so glad that Corzine lost
)
I am sad about ME
VA is great
now I feel much more optimidtic that VA will flip back red in 2012!!
AS NC IN FL will do!!
Almost BHO has his first challenger from his own party for 2012
))
#256 – Thanks that was a great link.
#337 See, them statist WONT quit on HC…..you will have to be up in their grill in vocal opposition for them to drop it…..its too big a power grab for them…..
Sorry, just dropping the public option is NOT derailing a governemnt HC takeover…..the real takover is the regulations, subsidies/taxes, and mandated participation by 100% of us!
I dont think for a second either that the smarter KOSers dont know this – they will at the end of the grumble a bit but gladly take the incremental step to full governement HC and political dominance….they will tote the line provided they get a good show by Pelosi and Reid that they are “fighting” for the public option….
smelling blood in the congressional waters of VA:
http://hamptonroads.com/2009/11/mcdonnell-win-has-gop-looking-nye-house-seats
I am back to talk politics, though i will wrap up my religion debate earlier.
DQ- I am not trying to take away your religion, i am simply saying just because you believe the Bible is your moral compass, it is not mine.
Tim V- It is all how one interprets it.
Now, back to politics.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/04/wilson-proposes-forcing-congress-government-health-insurance-plan/
FINALLY, a politician talking about accountability. Its about time.
Tim V- It is all how one interprets it.
Yes, BUT if you allow scripture to interpret scripture ( which is how I do it ) you would NOT come to the conclusions that you did. For example:
2Ti 3:16 All scripture [is] given by inspiration of God, and [is] profitable for doctrine, for reproof, for correction, for instruction in righteousness:
I am sure folks have seen this little feature on this site:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
What I like about it is that you can determine who the potentially vulnerable democrats are. Take for instance Ike Skelton-MO-4. McCain carried his district 61-38. He’s a no on Obamacare. There lots of democrats in districts that McCain carried.
With Cap/Trade being such a dog I just wonder if Nancy can force all these democrats to fall on the Public option sword.
I count 47 democrats are in districts that McCain carried. If you move the needle 4% you catch another dozen or so. I just cannot believe this vote takes place this week
#349 rdelbov
Good post. The next few days will be rough and tumble in the DEM caucus.
David Johnson from Strategic vision has been on local talk radio here. He’s a regular on the daily morning show.
#351 Charles
What did he say?
It’s not quite so much of a mixed bag as the Dems are trying to say. McDonnell and Christie clearly benefitted from enthusiasm among those who dislike the President’s policies.
#351 Anything about Nate Silver or his lack of polling (from SV)?
-Polaris
#353 Wes
I think that the folks in the White House and at the DNC know that too. They are just trying to put up a brave front in the face of a bad night.
The second channel in germany celebrate again the elction of our Messias
(
will this never ends here???
Today I saw a bus and on every glasfront stands
YES WE CAN
Tommy needs to read that Barone article.
I would be running scared were I a Dem right now, Marv. I just read Mike Barone’s article. If the trend among suburban voters–whose sole desire is not to pay as much of their income in taxes to the government as possible despite what Tommy says–as represented by this election continues, then the Dems are in DEEP trouble in upcoming elections.
The progs are going to force a vote and take names. The poor Democrats in Red and Purple districts will face primary challenges if they vote no and angry constituents in the general next Fall if they vote yes. A few might think about changing parties, as it solves both problems ( maybe ).
So tempers and fists are going to fly behind closed doors, and Pelosi may find out that there are plenty of folks itching to vote her out of the Speaker chair. Its all good.
Here are the alleged stops on Palin’s book tour:
Grand Rapids, Michigan
Noblesville, Indiana
Fort Wayne, Indiana
Washington, Pennsylvania
Rochester, New York
Cincinnati, Ohio
Columbus, Ohio
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Roanoke, Virginia
Fort Bragg, North Carolina
Orlando, Florida
The Villages in Florida
Albuquerque, New Mexico
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Lessons-from-the-2009-election-results-69054827.html
Tommy, read this article. Michael Barone gives the REAL reason suburbanites abandoned the GOP, not the reason as expressed in the manufactured poll you keep citing as gospel truth.
True enough, Gary.
Sean Hannity lands first cable interview with Sarah Palin in primetime… to air on November 18th…
Does anyone know if the Dems are going to try to prevent Christie from appointing a replacement to the Senate should Lautenberg die or Menendez be forced because of corruption?
marv, its on the show’s webpage, http://www.wflafm.com, ‘the morning show’. Its in the Tuesday rundown.
Congratulations Big Joe,
Glad I was wrong about Corzine. I am told the
AA vote was preety good but the unions stuck it him
for not delivering on the promises he made last
election. I can see that in Gloucester, Middlesex
a little and Union ( county that is) . Wondering
if Polaris has looked at the mail in votarama yet.
A thorough analysis there is important because
if its a dem advantage they will roll it out
big time.
On Lautenberg, he could resign now and they will
have a lame duck session and have the votes to
change the law. There is no Filibuster in Assembly
or Senate but there are some procedural routes.
Should be interesting. Oh yeah, Intrade
at 50 for Lautenberg living to 105!
To clarify, they will have a lame duck session
but do not need to change the Law for Corzine
to replace Lautenberg.
http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/34802/will-democrats-try-change-us-senate-vacancy-process-corzine-leaves
Tom Kean, Jr, might well want to pull out all the stops to keep the Dems from doing that.
Argh!!!! On BJG, some pompous social conservative just gave an incredibly ridiculous and vapid response to my question about why anyone should give a damn about the results of the Maine gay marriage vote.
Conservatives win when they are optimistic, address issues, proclaim their fiscal conservatism loudly and practice it, speak softly on their social conservatism but practice it in office without pomp and fanfare.
On another note, for you intrade lovers/haters, for 35 cents you can buy contracts for the repubs taking control over the house next year. Looks like a good bet.
Someone needs to tell Rush Limbaugh that, Pitch.
When I came to the US in 1986 I worked in a lab run by a nice lady who was a sixties radical. She told me, I believe around 1989, about Rush Limbaugh and how obnoxious he was and that he was a racist. I have listened to him a lot and I have neverfelt he was racist. I find him bright, articulate and very funny. I do agree that he goes overboard at times. However, my gut feel has been that he is a hard nosed fiscal conservative, but on social issues, he talks big but never sounds passionate. Hannity, on the other hand, is passionate about the social issues.
370, don’t sweat it. The SoCons have been out in force today. 1 day after 2 good elections and they totally forget why Obama is in office.
Conservatives win when they are optimistic, address issues, proclaim their fiscal conservatism loudly and practice it, speak softly on their social conservatism but practice it in office without pomp and fanfare.-pitch
I concur
Argh!!!! On BJG, some pompous social conservative just gave an incredibly ridiculous and vapid response to my question about why anyone should give a damn about the results of the Maine gay marriage vote.
Comment by Wes
Wes, I don’t think BGJ is a good fit for you.
And I don’t recommend picking a fight. All you get is a lecture on their view of morality as the only right one. Strange how one second they can talk about freedom, then the next harass individuals for living the life they do. I group them with the far left wackos.
Obviously the libertarian view of live and let live escapes those who are afraid.
I know, Tim. The name of the site screams libertarian, but the majority of the posters love for Big Government to dominate people’s personal lives almost as much as they enjoy watching Dems squirm.
376 “Wes, I don’t think BGJ is a good fit for you.”
A good observation, I would listen to it Wes, I don’t even read BJG anymore and would never post.
Give me a minute, 2012, and I’ll post of the asinine responses to my post.
Um, Jay, I disagree. And it’s awfully disingenuous of you to pose that as a rhetorical question as if any disagreement would be without reason or not forthcoming.
For starters, how about the fact that it gives legal status to a lifestyle that is not only immoral, but also destructive. It presents homosexuality as a normal behavior and refuses to recognize that there may be a dysfunctional interplay in the relationships (or non-relationships) between mother, father and child that contributes to the child growing up and entering into the homosexual lifestyle. I would guess that you’ve never studied child development to understand the way a child’s sense of self and sexuality develops.
2009 November 4 5:29 pm
[8] ip727 permalink
Does anyone’s life really change if gays are allowed to marry? Didn’t think so. That being the case, why do we care?
~~~JAY
Hey WES,why not just stay over at HHR with your pro homo bravo sierra?
A majority of the American people disagree with you.
That sounds like really open-minded thinking to me, 2012. Wouldn’t you agree?
Maybe, complain to the Blog Authority and it will be shut down.
ip727 is DQ, i have already gotten into it with him over gay marriage today. Lost cause.
I’m aware, 2012. He’s as much a nutjob as Alan or Cory the Canadian Communist Person (read: CCCP).
One thing I forgot to put into that cut and paste from BJG: The top response is from INC, not IP727.
It is not open minded. Its all about applying their moral compass to someone else. As a libertarian I don’t have a problem with people with religion, and I also don’t have a problem with them disliking gays. However when they cross the line of treating gays like sub humans, that sickens me. These are the same people that are totally agaisnt abortion…a human right. Well gays are people too.
Would they abort a baby if they knew (hypothetically) that it would turn out to be gay? Does a gay life have less value?
As a man of science and having observed human behaviour in the best and very worst of times, I am amazed on a couple of issues:
1. It is almost brain dead to argue as to when life begins. It begins at conception. The only issue is at what point could we nurture it on the outside to a “baby”. Twenty years ago it was at 32 weeks of gestation; these days at 18 to 20 weeks as my brother’s son who is 5 years old will tell you.
2. Homosexuality is not a behavioral choice. For heterosexuals it is almost unthinkable to have feelings towards someone of the same sex. If you observe gays carefully, especially gay men, their body language is different. They are tremendous in appreciaition of colors, music, arts and a lot of the functions of the non-dominant hemisphere of the brain. It is a matter of time before we understand the genetic, biochemical and neurological differences that makes a person gay.
Therefore, I am confident one day all of humanity will realize that abortion at any time is the taking of a life; but I understand this is an issue that has to be decided by society at large and not by nine judges. And I AM also equally confident someday we will understand people are gay because they were created that way and let them live the life God gave them.
#378
I tried to warn you sometime ago about BJG.