NY: More Of The Same
More of the same in the gubernatorial race in New York from Siena College. Giuliani leads Paterson, trails Cuomo slightly, and Cuomo crushes Paterson in the Democratic primary.
GOVERNOR – NEW YORK (Siena)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 41%
David Paterson (D-inc) 33%Andrew Cuomo (D) 53%
Rudy Giuliani (R) 41%Rick Lazio (R) 42%
David Paterson (D-inc) 39%Andrew Cuomo (D) 67%
Rick Lazio (R) 22%GOVERNOR – NEW YORK – DEM PRIMARY (Siena)
Andrew Cuomo 75%
David Paterson (inc) 16%
On the US Senate side of things, Republicans could have a good chance at the seat currently being occupied by Kirsten Gillibrand if Giuliani or former Governor George Pataki decide to take her on.
US SENATE – NEW YORK (Siena)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 49%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 43%Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 45%
George Pataki (R) 44%US SENATE – NEW YORK – DEM PRIMARY (Siena)
Kirsten Gillibrand (inc) 47%
Jonathan Tasini 13%US SENATE – NEW YORK – DEM PRIMARY (Siena)
Chuck Schumer (inc) 83%
Randy Credico 9%
I believe that is the first poll of any kind that polled Chuck Schumer’s race in new York, which has clearly been overshadowed by the Special Election Gillibrand has to run. This poll was done November 8-12 among 800 registered voters.
Run, Rudy, Run.
If today were November 16, 1979, our RINO Princess Chekote would be saying that Ronald Reagan was too Radical and Unelectable , and would lose to Jimmy Carter handidly.
So really no changes from that last poll set we saw from NY.
Gilli is beatable, never gets higher than in the mid 40s.
I am still shocked that Obama cleared the field for her.
I guess Paterson is still hanging in there
Does any New Yorker frequenting this board know if Pataki will jump in against Blondie?
I think of the Republican Party as a coalition of 1. RINOs who are about 10% 2. Fiscally very conservative and socially reasonably conservative, about 30% 3. fiscal and social conservatives (about 40%) and 4. socially very conservative and fiscally liberal(20%). Palin is very popular with groups 3 and 4. With groups 1 and 2, which happens to contain a lot of suburban republican women, she is poison. As things stand, there is a path to the nomination for her, there is no path to POTUS. For that, she has to change the image that she is under-informed and flaky. Her competition in group 3 and 4 is Huckabee. Romney is the favorite son of the first two groups. No Regan yet, Thune????
Plin supporters, read what Pitch said. It makes perfect sense to me.
Plin=Palin. My mistake.
Romney is done. He will never win the Rep nomination.
Howdy, folks.
What would a thread I appear on be without one of these?
http://enciklopediabg.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/malin_ackerman21.jpg
I want to see whether Pitch and Wes getting accused of being jealous of her; hating Palin because she is pro-life and the rest of the usual attacks.
Hi, Marv. How goes it?
Gov Paterson rips White House.
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Wes,
Goes well, thanks, how you?
Of course out of respect for Knighthawk, I also have to post one of these:
http://b5.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/01463/51/55/1463825515_l.jpg
Chek,
How did Palin do?
All right, I guess.
Palin On Oprah: Likable, Confident … Presidential?
http://www.npr.org/blogs/politicaljunkie/2009/11/palin_on_oprah_likable_confide.html
According to Wash Po/ABC News,
She’s at 50% with white suburban women in terms of favorables. It’s tough to see how she’s not in the 46-47% range overall if she’s at 50% with white suburan women.
She will probably need to win 60% of this group to defeat Obama if she’s the nominee (whoever is our nominee would have to win 60% of the white suburban women vote unless you can win an outrageous percentage of rural women and men overall).
I’m pretty sure the rural and exurban vote is going to lurch solidly Republican in 2010 and 2012, Tommy.
Folks,
Let’s just get right to it and cut the bravo sierra, whomever is nominated by the Republican Party will defeat Obama in 2012.
78/20 is Palin’s favorables with Republican women. That’s odd that she would be higher with Republican women than men but be higher with independent men than women.
Don’t be too hasty in saying that, Marv. at this point, it’s highly likely. We can’t say what will happen in three years though as I posted recently.
Pitch,
I’d argue that Huckabee is not strong among Group #3. I also think you overestimate the percentage that are in group 2 (I’d say 20% at most).
Group #3 is probably 60% of the party and while group #4 is probably 10%
Personally I think John Thune would be the best bet to unite the various factions of the GOP, win among indies, and peel off enough Dems to beat Obama in 2012.
#25 Wes,
Oh, what the heck, Wes let’s be hasty. All three service academies (Army, Navy, and Air Force) won their football game Saturday and I’m in a good mood.
Historically, Marv, I think Obama’s in a very precarious position and is unlikely to win in 2012. Unlikely does not mean it’s absolutely not going to happen though. I prfer to wait till about a yera out of the actual election before making predictions though–although in early 2007 I did say whatever Republican won the presidential nod would lose in 2008 because of the circumstances at the time. It’s just too early at the moment to say who will win and who will lose in an election three years away.
I never will understand why a woman this beautiful is in porn. She seriously needs to model.
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://img.listal.com/image/608050/600full-jenna-haze.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.listal.com/viewimage/608050&usg=__ytmX70zIZYoL9X25S08t5ETqo3k=&h=720&w=540&sz=82&hl=en&start=77&tbnid=sYbRj5dvZMqSrM:&tbnh=140&tbnw=105&prev=/images%3Fq%3Djenna%2Bhaze%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D21%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26start%3D63
Has anyone heard anything from Eph Rove?
Some of the transcrips from Barbara Walters have been released….I’m liking what I’m reading thus far.
Phil Garrido apologized for what he did to the Dugard girl. I’m all for locking up for life with a gay guy whose endowment makes John Holmes look small.
#29 Wes,
You are correct about 2012. I think that we can begin to make some assumptions regarding 2010 and the Democrats appear to be in serious trouble. There is nothing currently being advocated by them which is will appeal to enough of the voters to shift opinion back in their favor in a decisive way. In fact, the majority of policies currently being advanced are exceedingly unpopular without much upside potential.
Definitely, Marv. That doesn’t mean afte rthe dems are slaughtered in 201o, Obama won’t “pivot”–to use his word–and maybe edge his GOP opponent if the eceonomy isn’t in the doldrums then.
CNN Poll
(Obama misread the mood on the public.
)
Military Tribunal 64%
Civilian Trial 34%
No opinion 2%
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/16/rel17b.pdf
That’s a CNN poll too. Amazing they’re not trying to give him cover.
#31 Wes,
Eph remains in deep cover on special assignment.
Ah…I see.
Next year’s elections are starting to look to me like the famous scene in jaws where Roy Scheider is chumming the water and muttering to himself. All of a sudden while his back’s turned, Bruce surfaces, and Scheider realizes he, Robert Shaw, and Richard Dreyfuss have a much bigger–and worse–problem on their hands than they expected. Scheider then backs into the cabin of the boat and delivers the famous line, “You’re gonna need a bigger boat.” I’m thinking 2010 will be much the same way for the Dems.
Did this guy get the bus?
http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2009/11/man-found-dead-near-merchandise-mart-downtown.html
Chek,
How did Palin do?
Okay. She still is struggling with explaining exactly why she quit her job. She is the most effective when she talks about her kids. She seems like a nice lady but way out of her league.
Brandon
Did you watch Palin on Oprah? If yes, what did you think?
#40 Wes,
Or how about the movie, “The Longest Day”, where the German soldier in a bunker on Normandy Beach is peering through his binoculars on a very foggy day and sees that massive invasion fleet come into view right in front of him. That “invasion fleet” in 2010 will be the conservative/Republican Party coming to reclaim America from those Philistines in DC who are in charge now.
Group 2 could be 20% but group 4 is not that small. There are a lot of working poor in the bible belt, who are socially very conservative and economically liberal. Huckabee is loved by these peoople. Palin has the edge in group over Huckabee. Nut the larger point I am making is that Palin will not be POTUS without the vote of white women. Period. She could definitely get there, but she needs to show gravitas. I like Palin but in these dastardly times, she will not be my candidate. Yet to see one person unite all the factions, but it is still early. I do believe that Palin should not be underestimated.
Now we have to give the tax credit we got back. Seriously, this tax code HAS GO TO GO! Time for a flat tax, consumption tax. SIMPLIFY THE DAMN TAX CODE.
Amen, Marv. That’s much better than my Jaws analogy.
Hoffman withdraws concession in NY23. (He reportedly told Beck this morning that he is within 2000 votes with 10000 to count.)
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/67997-hoffman-unconcedes-in-ny-23
I support the Fair Tax, Chek. I think it should be tried on a small scale to prove its viability. If it works there, then it should be implemented nationally.
30 – You know the other day I saw her scene from Hustler’s Star Trek porn parody where she is some alien sex princess that gets it on with Spock. I was vastly impressed with her, um oral talents.
Okay, so I watched some pirated internet porn because I was bored, what of it.
POLITICAL DOWNSIZING
Discouraged by unemployment and depopulation and frustrated by politicians’ inability to solve either, voters aren’t just throwing the rascals out of office — they’re throwing out the offices, says USA Today.
In what western New York calls “political downsizing,” communities are voting by referendum to reduce the number of seats on town councils. The movement’s theory, as voiced by its founder, Kevin Gaughan: The best (and maybe only) way to cut government is to start with your own representatives.
So far the downsizing movement is confined mostly to western New York, but it’s part of a national wave of frustration over big government that was illustrated this year by raucous town-hall-style meetings over health care and the rise of the Tea Party movement:
This year, all four towns that considered citizen-initiated referendums to trim their boards from five members to three have voted to do so.
They range from Orchard Park, the affluent suburb where the NFL’s Buffalo Bills play, to the rural, close-knit town of Alden.
In several other communities, councils have voluntarily elected to downsize.
This month, Niagara County voters decided overwhelmingly to reduce the county legislature from 19 members to 15.
There’s even talk of dissolving whole villages (which are parts of towns but levy additional taxes and have their own elected boards):
Last month, with visions of a 40 percent tax cut in their heads, the villagers of Limestone voted 3-to-1 to dissolve.
The next council downsizing referendum is Tuesday in this community of 56,000, where one candidate in the Nov. 4 election endorsed downsizing, even though it would eliminate the seat he was seeking; he won.
Downsizing is not unique to New York:
Holyoke, Mass., for example, has lost a third of its population over the past 75 years but kept a 15-seat council.
This month voters elected to consider changing the city charter and possibly reduce the size of the council.
“Everybody is becoming aware that local governments are spending well beyond their means,” says Nick Dranias of the Goldwater Institute. “There’s a sense that something’s out of control.”
Source: Rick Hampson, “Political downsizing is latest weapon for voters,” USA Today, November 12, 2009.
For text:
http://ow.ly/BSZX
If Hoffman is -2000 behind Owens with 10000 to count, then Owens must be sweating right about now.
Personally I prefer engaging in sex to watching it, Ben.
I think we really need to start and keep a list
of who the o”man has thrown under the bus. The
list is way to long for me to keep it in my mind anymore
maybe dave could start a bus thread when there are no polls
Reid probably won’t be invited to the White House “Holiday” (gag me with a spoon) Party this CHRISTMAS.
http://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/5773402769
It doesn’t say there are 10k left to count.
Hey, let’s petition Dave for that, Am. At this point, we need one to keep track of all the people on the list.
It saysd officials are still counting 10000 absentee ballots, Howie.
I’d say that the 5 Dem Senators that Reid can’t get are Lieberman, Lincoln, Nelson, Bayh, and Landrieu.
“Officials in the upstate New York district are still counting over 10,000 absentee ballots,”
That was the total received, it doesn’t say how far along they are.
This 10k number was reported last week.
I have heard so many counts that who knows what the real number is. Anyway, I wish Hoffman did not concede. Had he done that, Pelosi would have had one less vote for HC reform.
Actually, marv, although Lieberman votes to organize with the Dems, he officially is no longer a member of the Dem
Party.
I wouldn’t get my hopes up about NY-23. Clearly the immediate post-election punditry about NY-23 (and how it was a ‘rejection’ of the ill-mannered fringe ‘teabaggers’) is now turning out to be at the very least overblown if not downright wrong.
Even if Owens wins (which is what I’m betting), such a tiny final margin now changes the analysis:
Owens won because:
1. Too many early voters voted “republican” without realizing they were voting for a donkey in an elephant suit.
2. DeDe’s endorsing of Owens (and stabbing her own party in the back like the traitor she is) got Owens JUST enough of her voters to push him over the edge.
-Polaris
Well, Chek, he conceded based on the information he had. I wonder if there wasn’t soemthing nefarious going on to underreport his vote. It seems entirely too suspicious to me.
I would add two things, Polaris:
1) Hoffman doesn’t live in the district.
2) Owens promised to oppose the public option.
The idiot then did the opposite of that once sworn in. He’s gone next year.
The effect of the two points I made on the vote totals is not to be overlooked.
I wish to God the CFG would find ELECTABLE candidates who espouse its ideas rather than saying anyone with a pulse who will run on its platform gets its endorsement.
#65 Fair enough. The point is that the popular notion that NY-23 ‘rejected the extremist “teabagger” ‘ no longer fits the facts.
-Polaris
Oh, I completely concur, Polaris.
Here’s something for you, Polaris. Note: It’s not a pic of a beautiful scantily clad girl.
http://www.dagonbytes.com/thelibrary/lovecraft/polaris.htm
CFG seems to be a kiss of death for candidates.
I don’t think it’s the CFG itself, Chek, but the candidates themselves. The CFG doesn’t look at electability and voter appeal. It just looks at ideology. If it had a better candidate-vetting system, then it would ahve more success electorally.
#72 Frum has gone off the reservation again, and seems to be TRYING to incite the very “civil war” in the GOP that he claims he opposes:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/16/frum.gop.florida.crist.rubio.battle/index.html
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2009/11/16/cnn-opinion-republicans-doomed-and-clueless.php
The second link reflects my own opinion on the matter when it comes to Frum.
-Polaris
The CFG should hire me as its PAC director. I’d put electability up there with ideology as a primary criterion for the candidates I would support.
Frum is really starting to annoy. Then again, pretty much anyone who worked for GWB annoys me, so what’s new?
#71 Heh. Well I hope I am a little less malicious than Lovecraft’s Polestar.
-Polaris
Did you write the text of the second link, Polaris?
Well, Polaris, to my knowledge you’re not a repository for homicidal Eskimos, so I think you’re safe in that regard.
#78 I can’t say that I did, but I wish I had (basically I was beaten to the punch). It’s still worth a read (the second link).
-Polaris
Oh, definitely, Polaris.
Pitch, the women that dislike Palin are largely either the ones that always vote DEM or are young, professional women who don’t have a family and have a cat.
They’re irrelevant as a voting block as far as the GOP is concerned.
Well, all, I’m going on a beer run before MNF. catch you guys–and in Chekote’s case, ladies–later.
Regarding CNN poll on 9-11 NY terrorist trial – good news. This in itself won’t hurt Obama as much as I originally thought. It is, however, one more reinforcer that Obama is the leftist we all thought he was. While none of us here needed proof of Obama’s radical leftist nature, it helps convincing the clueless in the middle.
Where it will hurt him big time is if this trial turns into a circus where America is the one put on trial, NY is hit during the trial, a hung jury, or intel is exposed. If any of that happens, look at Jack.
Charles, you can win the republican nomination by consolidating the conservatives, however, you will not be POTUS without the indies. The indies are a concoction of conservative dems, liberal repubs, a lot of women like my wife and some true-blue indies. Watch Palin’s numbers with this group. She will always have the conservatives, whe will never have the dems. If she cannot get over 55% with this group she does not have a chance in hell. While she turned out the base in 2008, this group voted against her. The indies will be trending republican in 2012 if the economy and labor market are this bd; however, to take them to the bank you need someone who they believe has gravitas. She does not inspire them right now.
Just watched the Oprah interview…I thought she did very well. Oprah looked like she wanted to cry.
I can see why women watch Oprah.
Tommy
is it worth watching I actually recorded it and was thinking of watching it. What were the highlights and lowlights (if any). Thanks
Wes,
I still don’t see how HOffman comes back from 2,000 down with 10,000 left (it appears we received bad info from the Watertown Daily News).
Unless all the absentees are from his base area.
You must have not watched Oprah much. She was professional but very cold.
None really from a political policy perspective.
I think she just came off very well for the part of Oprah’s audience that constitutes swing voters.
She reminds me of my mother (a highly educated person btw) and I don’t think I’m the only one who feels that way. It’s not a bad thing if people start perceiving you that way.
#89 I don’t watch Oprah. But I came away with a favorable impression of her.
Sullivan is mad at the interview because he felt Oprah went into the tank for Palin. If he’s feeling that way, I’m feeling pretty good.
More ex-Democrats: a county commissioner & a justice of the peace in Texas switched yesterday & will run for re-election as Republicans. And it continues…heh heh heh heh
Sullivan the misogynist gay guy, thinks Oprah was in the tank for Palin during that interview? Why does this not surprise me? Why can’t he just go back to fantasizing about fellating his hero Obama
and leave the rest of us alone.
And to think some conservatives once considered him one of our own.
And to think some conservatives once considered him one of our own.
At one time he was. He started changing once same sex marriage became a big issue.
Just say NO to Obamacare!
Palin was good on Oprah I have to say
Thanks for that Trolletta. I was debating whether to watch the interview, now I will.
She came across as a down to earth suburban mom, much like myself .. will it translate into 2012 support? That’s doubtful. But still a good interview that shows the politicains are people too LOL
#96
Why not watch it?
typo
shows *that politicians* are people too
She came across as a down to earth suburban mom,
That she did. As I said earlier, she is most effective when talking about her family.
She is most effective when giving a speech at the Republican National Convention. I have to say that was one of the best political speeches given since Ronald Reagan was President. The whole country was in rapture.
#101
Her speech at the convention was superb. But my favorite convention speech of recent times was Zell Miller. Especially, his line about Kerry wanting our soldiers to use spitballs.
Palin’s strongest suit is that she is a regular woman. It is also her weakest suit; when the dollar is tanking, unemployment is over 10%, there are two wars being fought and on and on, there is a majority right now that is uncomfortable with her in the W.H.
The Zell Miller was just what I needed to hear after all the BS at the Democrat convention about Kerry’s military service.
Another one thrown under the bus. Notice treasury
dept officials said they had nothing to do with it.
a sure sign!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GMAC-CEO-Alvaro-de-Molina-apf-739926096.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Maybe we should nominate John Corzine for that
job. Oh thats right he’s taking over Bank of amerika
#103
Personally, I am looking for a grow up to take care of the situation. I feel that we are in deep trouble and want someone who makes me feel he/she is serious and has the ability to fix a government that is going out of control, bankrupt. This is why listening to Cheney is so satisfying. No gimmicks. No folksy jokes like Huck. No phoniness like Romney. No perkiness.
Are you talking about father Cheney or the daughter Cheney. The daughter sounds as impressive as the dad, especially in foreign policy. If she is as well versed in financial matters, she has my vote.
Pitch,
Did you see my post in #26 in response to you about how the party breaks down?
I would only concede that she’s unpopular with RINOs while group #2 is probably the same for her as group #4. How else is she on average viewed favorably by 70-75% of the party? Ras has her at 80% and Wash Po at 76%.
I did see your post T_B. I think group 2 is a spectrum. For a guy like me who is in the right of the spectrum bordering on group3, she is acceptable. For someone like my wife, who is dead center in group 2, she is not. I have no doubt she will get a good majority of republicans; it is her appeal with the independents that needs to grow. That is the number to watch.
#108
I was talking about Dick Cheney. But Liz is equally good. If Liz Cheney chooses to run, she will have my vote, money and volunteer time.
#110
What does your wife say about Palin?
When you hear LIz Cheney, you hear a very well read person and someone who has given deep thought to foreign affairs, a chip of the old block. She does not have the charisma of Obama or PAlin; however, in tough times peoople will be looking for a grown-up. A grown-up, she definitely is; I do want to hear her on financial issues and on matters of health care — two other issues I care about. If she runs, she will skirt social issues, a la Mcdonnell.
My wife likes her personally but cannot take her seriously for POTUS.
Pitch,
She’s at 45% with indies in Wash Po. Not a bad place to start. 45% suggests that she’s winning over most right-leaning indies.
The suburban white women number is the key. She’s at 50% with the group. 60% is needed for victory against Obama.
you hear a very well read person and someone who has given deep thought to foreign affairs
Absolutely.
I find the Cheney family repulsive.
So, how many votes are outstanding in NY -23?
Even Sarah Palin would be better than a Cheney in office.
If Palin gets Chek and my wife, I guess she is POTUS. My gut says, she wont run.
#118, allegedly 10,000 still and Hoffman allegedly gained an extra 1,000 votes.
I find Ron Paul family repulsive. Even Lyndon LaRouche would be better than Ron Paul.
I think the $900k that the RNC blew on the Rino Troll in NY-23 may be the difference in the race. It appears that Hoffman should not have conceded so quickly given the errors, discrepanices, etc. in that race. He also could have used the GOTV.
#119: I can understand some people hat Dick Cheney; but how can you paint all Cheneys with the same brush. Prejudice?????
If Hoffman can unconcede can we unelect the Obumbler?
Gee, in my family Palin was the only reason to get out and vote. I still had 2 stay home because of McAmnesty.
Policy 2.111 or we go down fast.
Tina- So you didn’t vote at all?
We need to take a quiz:
Which leader will the Obumbler bow to next???
Rube Paul.
NY Governor Rips the White House.
Let the Drat Civil War begin…
#120
Honestly, among the people said to be running I see a bunch of midgets at a time when we need giants.
I can not take my 6 week early retirement trip to Italy next year. The $$$ continues to decline in value.
Europe is so expensive to begin with. No with the dollar tanking it is prohibitive.
Yes, Chek, good point.
#129 Tina
“Which leader will the Obumbler bow to next???”
That would be Sarah Palin, most likely.
There were 49 other leaders who all did handshakes there. Obama was bowing in Saudi Arabia, and there was a lot of criticism back then so it was not a mistake. He does it on purpose for some reason.
Maybe he just does it it to annoy right wing pundits.
Because Obama is an un-American whiner who is trying to outdo Carter.
Well, for being the smartest aka the most intellectual President, he sure does not know the customs very well does he. He did not get taught that being ACORN’s lawyer, Marv.
He does it on PURPOSE. It has nothing to do with not knowing customs.
I find it amusing.
Hoffman down 2951 with 6123 absentee ballots to count.
http://www.gouverneurtimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8024:updated-23rd-district-election-counts&catid=60:st-lawrence-news&Itemid=175
How many was he originally down by?
About 5500.
And there were how many absentees? 10K?
As Iowa goes, so goes the Nation.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/11/bad_news_for_dems_in_iowa.html
#145
Yes, that approximately correct.
So they have counted 3877 (10000 -6123)
and he’s gotten 3127 more votes (5500-2951)?
That means he’s getting almost every absentee vote if true.
He does it on PURPOSE. It has nothing to do with not knowing customs.
I think you are right. Just like the birth certificate.
Hoffman conceded the race on Election Night after learning he trailed Owens by 5,335 votes. But the Syracuse Post-Standard reported last week that the margin had shrunk to 3,026 votes after recanvassing.
Ah that explains it.
#149
The birth certificate?
The birth certificate stuff is crazy, but some people apparently really really want it to be true so they keep propagating this stuff about it.
#148
Most of his pick ups came during the recanvassing process. There were some precincts where his total was erroneously reported as zero.
Chek,
Yes, I did see the entire interview. I thought she did alright, I didn’t think it was anything special. She still has trouble articulating things, and those long run on sentences are sometimes grating.
Goodnight, Ladies and Gentlemen.
Marv
please keep us updated with links on a daily basis.
thanks
Ralph
These polls in NY all do look the same, month after month…