AR: Lincoln Leads Baker By 2%
Democrat John Zogby is out with a new poll today for the state of Arkansas and it shows Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln only getting 41% in her bid for re-election.
US SENATE – ARKANSAS (Zogby)
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 41%
Gilbert Baker (R) 39%Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 45%
Kim Hendren (R) 29%
Then there is this paragraph from the article attached to the poll.
But when voters were asked how they would vote in a Lincoln-Baker race if Lincoln voted in favor of the healthcare legislation, the incumbent Democrat fell behind her possible GOP challenger 37-49. In all, 48% of likely Arkansas voters said they would be less likely to back Lincoln’s re-election if she supports the healthcare bill with 38% saying they were much less likely to support her in that event.
Might make her waver a little before casting her vote with Obama and Harry Reid. This poll was done November 16-17 among 501 likely voters.
Thanks to Brandon in the comments for alerting me to this poll.
If You’re Going To San Francisco [Robert Costa]
From the San Francisco Chronicle:
It might as well have cooties. Hardly anyone wants to touch the thing, or even get close to it.
The new autobiography by moose hunter and failed vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is harder to find in the Bay Area than a hockey mom. Some bookstores figure it’s one of those grit-your-teeth First Amendment deals that principled booksellers must put up with from time to time.
But many nonchain bookstores won’t handle it.
“Our customers are thinking people,” said Nathan Embretson, a bookseller at Pendragon Books in Oakland. “They’re not into reading drivel.”
There’s not a single copy on the shelf. Embretson said no one has asked for it except for one guy, who was kidding.
“He said he wanted to look at it but he also said he didn’t really want to read it,” Embretson said. “Anyway, he certainly didn’t want to buy it. I think he regarded looking at it as a kind of punishment.”
There are no copies of the book at Cover to Cover Booksellers in Noe Valley, either.
“Anything like that we wouldn’t carry,” said clerk Emily Stackhouse. “We’re a small store and it would probably gross us all out. Some things you carry because of freedom of speech, but a book like that is just gross.”
And the GOP guy in this poll is NOT EVEN COMMITTED TO RUN!
How would this poll look if he was actually running?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
Showing off their tolerance once again in the San Fran area GPO, are they still breaking windows and protesting recruiting offices?
Imagine if the GOP Rep Boozeman were to run?
He should announce to today and scare Lincoln into voting no on cloture.
After Obama was elected, I thought San fran would have unicorns.
“Arrests of illegal immigrant workers have dropped precipitously under President Obama, according to figures released Wednesday.
Criminal arrests, administrative arrests, indictments and convictions of illegal immigrants at work sites all fell by more than 50 percent from fiscal 2008 to fiscal 2009. ” -WaTimes
1…
This tells me that liberals, not conservatives, are book banners and intolerant of opposing views. Imagine that. The Left is always guilty of the sin they attach to their opponents. The Left always projects onto its opponents its own characteristics.
Liberals don’t read books. Conservatives do.
Huckabee should float a trial balloon rumor that he is running, and keep it alive as long as lincoln is on the hot seat.
50-44 in Gallup. Worst spread yet. I’m not a fan of the Gallup tracking poll however. Too much day to day variation.
The Fox Opinion Dynamics Poll is devatating however.
from streetaccount
Senate Majority Leader Reid confirms earlier reports that the key procedural vote to begin debate on the healthcare bill will take place on Saturday
As noted earlier, reports indicate that Reid has secured the necessary 60 votes to pass the motion to proceed on the bill
-12 the voters say if you dare vote with Harry Reid. And at 49% no, it would mean all undecideds would have to vote for her and not just stay home or she is burnt toast. No that might make her butt clinch a bit.
And its Zogby, so he probably found more Democrats than will ever turn out on election day.
Lincoln is a NO, I will bet money on it.
A forthcoming DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Florida shows Marco Rubio (R) surging in his race with Gov. Charlie Crist (R) for the Republican Senate nomination.
Crist now leads Rubio, 47% to 37%. In January, Crist led 57% to 11.
Gary, you mean a no on cloture?
Yep, they are going to sell us out. This is so easy to see yet most keep holding on to believing it won’t happen.
So, I am reading James Michener’s Alaska and now have Going Rogue to read. There is irony in that. Do I read the 700 pages left in Alaska or take a break and read Going Rogue?
Crist under 50%
RUH RO
No Rudy Run for Albany in 2010?
Rudy Giuliani is not running for governor, the New York Times reports.
If the PPP trends hold up, Obama should be leading Palin tomorrow by only a 50-43, 50-44 margin.
Huckabee should either take the lead or be tied with Obama.
Here is an interesting blog about a worse case “repeal CrappyCare” plan:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTMzZTlkNTE4M2ExNjFlNjUyMTY1YjQxMjg4YzJjYTg=
Huckabee should announce that if Lincoln votes yes on final cloture (in January probably) he will announce against Lincoln.
Oh he won’t. The guy has no interest in the senate whatsoever despite the fact that it would be his seat for the taking.
Rudy should run against the bimbo for her Senate seat.
17 – Think we all figured that out already.
AOL is embracing the unicorn recovery and is going to layoff 2,300.
Too bad on Rudy, but Cuomo would be tough. I hope he runs for Senate, a much easier task.
I can see Lincoln going either way on starting the debate. A certain “No” on the bill but will she fillbuster??
this is the problem. The GOP are fighting with plastic forks again.
The RNC should have made ARK GOP Rep Boozeman run, then Lincoln would have said no to cloture.
No need to get “hysterical” about CrappyCare:
http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=MjVjY2FmYmE3MTQwNmNlYWRlMzE4YTc5NGQ4OGJkMmM=
“The idea of imprisoning or fining Americans who don’t knuckle under to an unprecedented government mandate to purchase a particular insurance product should outrage anyone who believes in the exceptional promises and opportunities afforded by our basic American freedoms. The idea isn’t progressive but highly regressive, the equivalent of reinstituting debtors’ prisons, a punishment Americans eliminated 160 years ago.
Of course, the prospect of winding up in prison for failing to maintain government-mandated insurance may be of no personal concern to the president or members of Congress. They each receive a Cadillac version of health-care coverage funded by those same American taxpayers who, in the reformers’ vision, will be federal criminals if they have the audacity to make their own decisions about medical insurance.
If the public’s objections to this provision grow loud enough, we will undoubtedly be told that criminal prosecution will be used only against really bad actors. But that same reasoning was used to justify the law that sent inventor and entrepreneur Krister Evertson to federal prison for nearly two years. Evertson testified in July at a bipartisan House hearing investigating the overcriminalization of conduct in America.
In May 2004, FBI agents driving a black Suburban and wearing SWAT gear ran Evertson off the road near his mother’s home in Wasilla, Alaska. When Evertson was face down on the pavement with automatic weapons trained on him, an FBI agent told him he was being arrested because he hadn’t put a federally mandated sticker on a UPS package.”
Rdel, I told you Ben Nelson was a liberal. A Reid Patsy
#22 Knighthawk
I think most thought he was waiting to see if Cuomo was going to primary Patterson before deciding
She really has no choice. Look at Al Zogby’s poll, she might squeek by unless she supports HC reform. And voters are not distracted so voting yes and then voting no wont work any better than it did for John Kerry. She allows it to pass, she goes down hard.
The feet dragging by reid and company is to foster the illusion that we have a representative gubmint, but it is nothing more than smoke and mirrors to pacify the sheep. The fix is in, this sucker will pass.
The fraud of our “demokracy” will be exposed as nothing more than allowing the prols a chance to pick which party forges their chains.
The sheeple will then have the satifaction of growing used to the yoke that they created and are wearing. The tyrants love demokracy to justify their tyranny.
Streetaccount? who are they?
Hawk, as I said before. If the GOP cannot get a Deep Redstate DEM Senator who is up in 2010, to vote no on cloture, then we need new leadership.
This is crazy
The only reason Giuliani wanted to run for the Senate was because he was eyeing the White House. It is quite clear that he will NEVER on a national ticket. So why bother?
Anybody have a Fox news link tomorrow?
I mean a link to the poll that was discussed?
34 – I’ve been all over the internet looking for one. I don’t think the internals get released until this afternoon.
#28 – He would have announced already if he was going to go for Gov, it would be an uphill battle against Cuomo but doable if he wanted to put forth all the effort, he doesn’t. I agree the senate seat is an easier race and comes with arguably better perks.
GPO (#222, last thread): If a bookstore doesn’t want to sell a book, they won’t, and they don’t have to! Believe me, I know. I’ve got a book out right now and the biggest hinderance to my sales is book stores who won’t stock my book. (By the way, Newt Gingrich wrote the Foreword to my book — an excellent Foreword.)
http://www.amazon.com/Americas-Best-Zoos-Travel-Families/dp/188714076X/ref=pd_sim_b_1
Wylie- I completely agree with your link in #19
Felix- streetaccount is a scrolling newservice I subscribe to that is 95 % stocks related but intersperses political notes as they come out
http://www.streetaccount.com
32 – Um I didn’t comment on AR or HC debate, not that your wrong.
I disagree on Boozman, Felix. Lincoln got her seat originally because Boozman’s brother self-destructed. The GOP needs new faces in its Arkansas Senate bids.
CrappyCare – saving money by killing you off early!
“Death Panel in the U.K. [Greg Pollowitz]
From BBC News:
Liver cancer drug ‘too expensive’
A drug that can prolong the lives of patients with advanced liver cancer has been rejected for use in the NHS in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) said the cost of Nexavar – about £3,000 a month – was “simply too high”.
But Macmillan Cancer Support said the decision was “a scandal”.
More than 3,000 people are diagnosed with liver cancer every year in the UK and their prognosis is generally poor.
Only about 20% of patients are alive one year after diagnosis, dropping to just 5% after five years.”
CrappyCare’s new moto: Your simply not worth the cost!
Cool GPO. Ben Nelson pisses me off. He is supposed to be the Stupak of the Senate, but is playing ball with Reid, who wants to implement Abortion in Conference.
A/N – Does your book include congressional zoo?
Wes, I just meant as a way to muscle Lincoln.
How hard can it be for the RNC to stop Cloture?
What is the point complaining here, if Our leadership is a bunch of Trust Fund Country Club wimps.
Just think about this. The Republicans need just one democratic senator to kill this Crappycare. If they cannot get that, it speaks volumes of their ineffectiveness and the suicidal streak of the so called moderate dems.
Our leadership is a bunch of Trust Fund Country Club wimps.
You forgot RINOs.
It’s going to be hard because the Dems are going to be lobbying to keep their members in line, Felix.
Chekote, should you not be at a Gay wedding with Megan McCain?
Bayernfan,
Thanks for your observation regarding the left projecting their stuff on to the right.
There is a similar situation that is when an individual projects their stuff on to another individual. Many time this starts out as a pet-peeve. According to Jungian psychology, if a individual obsessively continues to always find fault in a person of the same gender, then it called a “shadow projection”.
#45 – When the opposition has effectively 60 members it’s quite difficult, so I guess this means Lieberman will sell himself out again (assuming harry really does have the 60).
Pitch, that is what I mean.
HC is dead if they cannot get cloture on debate. The wooden stake.
Nelson is scum, but Lincoln can be wooed.
I was hoping Rudy would run for govenor and Patika (spelling) run for Senate
Hawk, Lieberman was honest that he allow debate, but Nelson changed his tune.
51 – Hmmm.
Rush just NAILED this Obamacare bill.
We are being asked to board a ship, to who knows where, and the fare will cost who knows what, and its a one way ticket, no way to come back.
#50
Your homophobia is showing.
Why even allow debate of this POS if your going to vote against it, unless it’s just a scam to vote for it later when PO is removed.
#57
With all due respect, Bush did the same regarding Iraq.
http://www.hotairpundit.com
Obama down to 33% with seniors
Palin still #1 on Amazon.com. That is where the left is going to buy the book. Trust me, they are buying it.
Besides, I thought there were not enough conservatives around to push her to the top. Sarc
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books
My take on all this is that Reid knows that the senators don’t like to deal with stuff over the holidays. So if he starts debate near Thanksgiving, he will get less opposition. It always seems to me that bills all pass in a flurry right before breaks. I hope I am wrong but am worried that I am not. This thing needs to die so we don’t.
I am proud to be Homophobic, RINO
#57 Yep, its highly unlikely that CrappyCare will be repealed.
However, it would be smart if Rush/conservative media and the GOP got on board with an idea like the author proposed in the link I posted in #19 IMHO – at least there would be some hope and dedicated effort towoard elimination of CrappyCare if this turd should pass.
#61 – Still too high.
They know people don’t lose seat over procedural votes. What’s more democratic than to allow an up and down vote? As long as they vote against the final bill, they have a leg to stand on.
#63 They love SAT votes too since more people are focused on college football games then them stealing our liberties and taking over 1/5th of the economy!
“Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) says Obama is “bowing down” to Republicans. He said he is “getting tired of saving Obama’s can in the White House.”
—-
What planet does this guy live on?
I am proud to be Homophobic, RINO
Polaris,
Are homophobes a key part of the GOP coalition? Do we need to tolerate homophobia to win elections?
Felix/Chekote,
Please end this silly homophobe/rino debate now. Its dull.
Wylie, it amazing how stupid many Americans are. How the Rats are allowed to do Saturday Night votes is pathetic.
“I actually did vote for the 87 Billion, before I voted against it.”
- Didn’t play to well for Mr. Kerry.
That is where the left is going to buy the book. Trust me, they are buying it.
Of course they are. That’s why I don’t understand why people are using her book sales as a gage for her electoral prospects.
60…apples/oranges.
Naturally, the NY Times is trying to pretend that the book does not exist.
Won’t work. Sarah gets the ultimate revenge.
BTW – she was terrific on Oprah and put her in her place early.
Chekote, running to daddy again?
As long as you keep up your racism against Christians, I will bust your liberal chops.
75 – Since when has that ever mattered – just ignore it.
- Didn’t play to well for Mr. Kerry.
But saying that you allowed people to have their say will play well.
#67 What is more democratic is standing up for the principles of individual rights/liberty and stopping Unconstitutional legislation from becoming law.
Plus concerns about “up or down” votes are never considered by the left when it came to stopping conservative items or nominees so to cry about what has been the agreed upon rules now is very cynical to say the least.
Right now, of all the candidates for the GOP, it is quite clear that only Palin generates the type of enthusiasm that could defeat an incumbent POTUS.
Chekote was Anti-Gentile at Polipundit, and she is here. She hates Southern Christians, but loves Gays. Whatever.
I will be purchasing three copies of Palin’s book – for myself, my mother, and my son.
MDefl,
re: 81…that may be true but its a long time until 2012. In 1989 who was talking up Bill Clinton’s chances against Bush senior; and (although it wasn’t against an incumbent) who in 2005 was talking up Obama’s chances?
lots can/will change.
#61 Thats good, but there needs to be a significant push to get his numbers down with the “Youts” too.
The “Youts” are getting an equally bad shaft under CrappyCare yet support it along the lines of 60-70%….
If those numbers can be driven down then CrappyCare will be in most most dire straights….
As long as you keep up your racism against Christians
Are you calling Christians homophobes?
Felix
I am a Gentile. Are you a Jew hater?
Chekote,
please…..its dull….its boring….”you’re a homophobe”……..”you’re a racist”…..”no, you are!”….come on…..for the sake of other posters, its just mind numbingly dull to read.
#60 Wow, bashing Bush to justify trashing a perfectly accurate assesment of CrappyCare. This is really orginal, I have never heard anyone justify the latest left wing insanity by saying “Well Bush….”
There you again Chekote.
Chekote your posts speak for themselves. You despise Christians, especially from the South.
Many here know it, but choose to not get involved, which is fine.
Hellbelly its mindless. schoolyard stuff
Felix,
Please stick to politics. An interminable insult back-and-forth with Chekote (even if you feel it is justified) isn’t worth the effort.
rdelbov,
to say the least!
Hellbelly, point taken. I will do what the majority does here, and ignore her liberal views.
Thank you, Hellbelly. I very much agree.
Thank you both.
Rdel, true. Back to basics, any news on Nelson?
You despise Christians, especially from the South.
I despise any religious person who thinks they are God.
Chekote,
stop it. Please.
Notice how intimidated people are to offend the religious right. They can’t even bring themselves to denounce clearly homophobic statements. Polaris, what do you think? Will we get a repeat performance?
The Campaign stop at http://nationalreview.com, says people close to Rudy say the NYT article is bull, Rudy is not out.
#100
Denounce the homophobic statements of Felix and I will.
Chekote, can you think for yourself, or do you need Polaris to hold your hand?
bye, bye kids.
46-46
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/111909_ObamaPoll.pdf
#102
Giuliani supports civil unions. Giuliani moved in with a gay couple when he separated from his second wife. You supporting Giuliani makes no sense.
Hellbelly, I am trying, but as you can see she is a Religous Bigot.
I have no problems with gays, just gay marriage.
#106
Have they changed their sample breakdown?
#108
You said you were proud to be a homophobe. Case close.
Does anyone have news on the fence sitters like Nelson or Lincoln?
Reid says he has the votes, but others says he does not?
Fox Generic Ballot
Rep 42
Dem 39
Thanks Marv.
Notice that Obama has the exact same numbers among both Democrats and Republicans as last month. Exactly.
The difference in this and last month’s polls?
Indies
Went from 51/34 t0 34/51
Wow.
Fox Partisan Self ID
38D/36R/20I/6 don’t know
Phil,
EPH thinks I have been hanging around with you for too long since I put the % of crappycare (ht to Coyote) passing at 95%.
In early June indies were 62-26.
Keep governing left Barry.
Saw a Nevada political site, that says Reid put a Monthly abortion Fee in his bill as a Poison Pill.
Leading Democrats in Vegas thinks Reid does not want this bill to pass, because he is toast in 2010.
Hmmmmmmmmm
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/19/cbo-reid-plan-increases-deficits-89-billion-in-first-ten-years/
What planet does this guy live on?
Comment by KnightHawk
URANUS
Denounce the homophobic statements of Felix and I will.
Comment by Chekote
So much for freedom of speech.
Phil, many here have said Indy’s will swing back in 2010 if Economy is good.
The economy will never be good if we start paying Taxes on Health Care.
113 Marv
Opinion Dynamics took this poll? They have been horrible, but they tend to skew toward the Democrats.
Is it likely voter or registered voter polling?
Note the D +2 self ID versus the +8 stuff we had early this AM. Some folks might finally be catching on that a wave is coming.
Americans are much more likely to give Palin a positive rating (47 percent favorable) than another prominent female leader — Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (28 percent favorable). Moreover, about six in 10 Americans (61 percent) think Palin has been treated unfairly by the press, according to the latest Fox News poll.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/
Cook has new changes of congressional races. Look at the lower right corner of this page.
All moving in ONE direction!!!
#114
Did that change from the last poll?
How do you know Reid is lying?
His lips are moving.
His healthcare bill is one big lie so does he have the votes. No he is lying right now. On saturday who knows??
Healthcare bills lies:
1. reduces deficit? Sure if you only count 6 years of expenses versus 10 years of revenue.
2. reduces deficit? Sure if you count +50 billion in medicare/medicaid funds shifted to the states. Does NY or CA or MI have these funds available for this shift?
3. Sure it reduces the deficit if the Ponzi like CLASS longterm insurance plan is counted. Pay now and between 2010-2019 but pay out benefits in 2035. Is that anyway to fund healthcare?
50.6-43.4 will be the new RCP when they include the new Fox poll.
Our future leaders ????
Rdel, if Reid wanted this to pass, why would he touch Abortion?
If the final passes without the Option or Liberal Abortion language, the Democrats will completely piss off their base
Just spoke with Senator Landrieu’s DC and local office. Took a LONG time to get through to the DC Office. Person I spoke with seemed “beat down”. Gave very rote answers and seemed very weary. Said Senator Landrieu has not decided how she will vote on cloture. I asked if she would announce her decision before she votes and was told that she probably would not announce her decision prior to the vote. The local office person was very defensive and somewhat combative. She said she did not know of “any Senator” who announces how they will vote before they actually cast the vote” WHAT????? I pointed out that Sen. Nelson has already announced that he was voting yes to cloture and several other Senators as well. This seemed to stump her. Obviously Mary hires Democrats in her office. Neither person seemed very bright so obviously she hires from within her party or from her home town.
I remember how pissed I was two Saturday’s ago when the Blue Liars made a deal with the Church and Pelosi for cover.
Giuliani to run for Senate. Yippie. Another Seat in play.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/11/19/2009-11-19_former_mayor_rudy_giuliani_to_announce_plan_to_run_for_us_senate.html
Moreover, about six in 10 Americans (61 percent) think Palin has been treated unfairly by the press, according to the latest Fox News poll.
I think Palin has been treated unfairly by the press. Will I vote for her? No.
130. Mary will vote yes, what does she care, your state keeps electing the Blue liar.
Nelson is a huge bummer.
North Dakota weasels piss me off.
Lincoln is our only hope.
126 – Harry Reid – You lie!
Holy Crap.
Will rudy make Gildenbrand squirm on HC vote?
#122 Gary
The Fox poll is of RV’s.
#132
Nothing would make me happier. But I believe it when he actually announces it.
Felix,
If you’re here. The NY Daily News says Rudy will announce in the next 48 Hours that he won’t run for Governor BUT will instead running for U.S. Senate against Gillibrand.
Please stop blaming the Catholic Church for what Democrats did. Its both offensive and wrong. No single institution did more to derail the nightmare that was the House bill than the Catholic Church. The Bishops told every parisioner before the vote and since that if Abortion funding is in the bill it needs to be defeated. Since this is causing a problem for the democrats with their base, you should be thanking them. The Bishops took no position on anything outside of sanctity of life, which is Church doctrine.
Gary , I am Catholic. I feel the Church was honorable with Stupak, but Naive to think his bill would ever hold up.
#140
The Bishops support the public option.
If Rudy wins, make him GOP leader in the Senate from day one.
#130 GEAUXLSU,
Senator Nelson has not said that he will vote yes on cloture (motion to terminate debate and proceed to a vote on the bill), he has said that he might vote yes on the motion to begin debate on the bill, which requires 60 yes votes.
Daniel,
That would be great news and ensure a GOP pickup in NYC. We could then pit Pataki against Chuckie. He is NOT invulnerable.
For once I agree with Chekote. A official announcement on rudy would help.
Rudy would be a force in D.C
132…I hope that is true. Truly great news. Run Rudy Run.
If Rudy wins, make him GOP leader in the Senate from day one.
He is pro-abort. It will never happen.
Marv, he meant the vote on Saturday to begin debate. It would be a win for Reid to open debate. It needs to be killed Saturday.
MDefl,
Cuomo will run against Paterson in the Primary that’s almost assured. I doubt Pataki can beat Cuomo. Pataki has left NY in a huge mess in 2006.
I think Pataki is gunning for President in 2012.
Will Gildenbrand be influenced here on HC vote
Pataki is out.
Rudy running might help GOP get back State Seante which is 32-30 DEM in NY
Re #144…..hope you’re right. Heard on local radio here that Reid got a “big boost to his bill when Sen. Nelson said he would vote to allow the bill to come to a vote, but not that he would vote “yes” to the bill in its current state”.
Rudy is in favor of reversing Roe, which would allow states to legislate as they wish on the abortion issue.
By the way, liberals are NOT buying Palin’s book. Liberals don’t read books that much.
#152
Depends on what the polls look like in NY regarding HC.
“I think Pataki is gunning for President in 2012.”
—
That would be a wasted effort in my opinion.
152 – Nope.
No, Gilderbrand would never vote no regardless. Heck, Lincoln won’t vote no on cloture and that’s with her KNOWING a yes vote is the end of her career.
Rudy is in favor of reversing Roe, which would allow states to legislate as they wish on the abortion issue.
Not good enough. As we learned during the presidential campaign.
Latest Siena Poll had Rudy leading Gillibrand by 5 or 6 Points I believe.
Rasmussen has a new Poll out at 5pm ET on that Race.
#157
I agree. No pro-abort can be on a national ticket. Not for number one. Not for number two. Besides, it will be tough for ANY GOP candidate to top Palin when it comes to the life issue.
http://www.thehill.com Says Reid not sure about votes for Saturday.
Landrieu, Lincoln, and Nelson on the fence. Nelson will announce vote tommorrow
Daniel, with Paterson killing the NY economy, rudy is a lock
Give the Gov of NY to Cuomo. They deserve him. Friggin Yankee fans.
Will rudy make Gildenbrand squirm on HC vote?
Comment by Jason T. — November 19, 2009 @ 2:37 pm
No
#162
We have been through this before in the House. They have the votes on cloture.
Any Nebraska media outlets covering Nelson’s pitter patter positioning? You have to wonder if people in Nebraska knew what was going on. People in Arkansas sure do.
Bayernfan, I told you Bayh was a weasel. A patsy
#167
There is no frickin’ way that the Dems will further damage Obama by not passing something on HC. Remember how tough it was for Republicans to go against Bush.
Now Bush fmr. HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R) is said to be considering a challenge to Feingold.
I don’t like this idea. I’d rather see Thompson running to get his old job back and push fmr. Mark Neumann (R) to run against Feingold.
Neumann I believe is similar popular as Rep. Paul Ryan (R) who ruled out a run in both Races.
Chekote probably right.
If Abortion funding and the Option is wiped out, how do they Dems hold their base.
Pataki can give Chucky a run for his money. However, he has a less than zero shot at POTUS.
I am starting to think that the nomination is going to be Sarah’s for the taking if she wants it. I would rather she wait until 16 but that is jmo.
They hit her with everything and I mean everything and she is standing stronger than ever. What a lady!!!
Neumann lost already. Walker for Governor.
They have 60.
Jason T,
I heard despite Cuomo being a Democrat he and Rudy are close friends. I believe they are both Yankees Fans too.
Sounds reasonable Rudy isn’t running against Andrew.
Linecum won the NL Cy Young again
The Senate seat is far more important than governor.
Tina, like your sources had Corzine up +2
#174
Did you hear that from your sources?
Tina,
I have been saying all along that the swirl around the so called “debate” within the Dem party is nothing more than poorly orchestrated theatre for us plebs.
It is a done deal and has been so for a while. There will be no public option but there will be triggers that makes a gov takeover of hc a virtual certainty.
It is funny that people can’t see this. Isn’t it obvious?
170 – Good more money having to be spent by D’s on defense, not that a big TT fan but an improvement over Russ should he actually win.
Anbody upset with the Drudge headline in red??
I always expected Bayh to vote to begin debate. It is the cautious thing to do. He does NOT want to vote on the bill itself, or on cloture. Most of these moderates wish this thing would just go away. This thing is going to stall in the Senate debate. People like Bayh and others want it to.
Jason,
Did he light up a J in celebration?
Do not underestimate the Senate leader, like some of you did Madame Speaker.
My source also had VA +14 so what is your point?
PPP: Obama overall: 49A/46D DISAPPROVAL of health care bill: 52-40
182 – Yes, I posted it earlier here, btw will you pose with me for a good photo op?
Bio,
They don’t care about the will of the people. They were only pretending for 8 years.
KH,
Only with my gun in hand.
That stuff really makes me upset, KH.
183 – Wishful thinking they’re going to pass something, I hope you are correct and I am wrong.
#189
Calm down Annie Oakley.
Mdefl,
Some of them are just blinded, do you think he will go through the dog and pony show in the first place w/o the necessary votes.
#188
The majority of Americans were opposed to impeaching Clinton but the GOP still proceeded. Sometimes parties do things to make their base happy.
189 – Deal!
Yes it’s enraging, plus what do you think would happen had you know had said that?
I see some of us are cheering for the moderate Ds to “kill the bill.” LOL
Tina, my point is that Reid and all the pundits said Reid had the votes for “DocFix” two weeks ago, but he did not.
Pelosi had nothing to lose, knowing the Seante would take the ultimate blame.
Congressional investigations (I used the word plural)
Plus impeachment.
Jason T, its my personal prediction that he has the votes to move it forward. Take it for what its worth.
The healthcare situation in the senate is a wheels within wheels situation. There is going to be some sort of healthcare debate one way or the other. Nelson or Lincoln or Landrieu could object to the bill. Reid can make any sort of adjustments like taking the public option out. That moves the bill to debate. The Public option still be voted in or the conference could put it back in and then you face a fillbuster at that point. Either way I think the debate starts.
I think the senate debates because that’s what it does. Right now might be a good time to firestorm the vulnerable democrats with calls and letters.
Secondly in my opinion the real action occurs when the voting on the amendments comes up. If Reid will not allow amendments then you fight every inch. You read the bill you force 24/7 action in the senate. This process cannot occur until debate starts. So many three weeks of debate? Then a week of votes.
At that point, say at Christmas time, if the public option is still in you fillbuster and get Lieberman-Lincoln-Nelson and others voting “no”.
Reid is no fool. Saturday’s vote is not up or down on Obamacare. Its just the 1st step. I say he gets 60 votes and in a way that’s best. Let’s start three weeks of debate on public option instead of starting without which saves the democrats about 4 weeks of time. Right now we need the time.
Tina cool
The Dems are stuck. The made a fatal mistake in pushing HC reform so early. They should have used to economy as an excuse to postpone HC. Instead, the Obama-idiot wants to get everything done ASAP. Again, this is what happens when you put an inexperienced person in charge.
I ditto Tina’s assessment.
Oh and 2010 will best Reid’s last in the Senate.
Have I got this right?:
The vote on Saturday is to open the debate on HCR, right?
The real key vote, however, will be sometime in the future for cloture to end the debate. Is that right?
If that’s the case (and I could be wrong), there can be no doubt that Saturday’s vote to open the debate will be won by the dems. It really can’t be a surpise, since they have 60 votes.
Anyone who was expecting anything differently really is delusional since its a “risk free” vote for wavering dems. Why tick off your leadership when yo don’t have to.
The key vote will be on cloture. I still would suggest that Reid is going to have a real hard time getting to 60 on that. Lieberman (who will vote to open the debate) had made it clear he’ll be a “no”. I think it will be a safe bet (any takers?) that one or two others of the “at risk dems” will join him.
Yeah, it would have been nice to kill this immediately by not allowing debate. But that wasn’t going to happen for political reasons. I still think it will die via the fillibuster route, however.
You may disagree with my conclusions, but are my facts correct on “oopening debate” and “cloture”? If not, I stand corrected.
And until the moderates prove me wrong, I will continue to say they have the votes.
I also expect to lose one to three from the R side.
It is funny that people can’t see this. Isn’t it obvious?
Comment by MDefl —
see post 30
I also expect that you will see many Rino posts, when/if an R does that.
Just a warning to the plants.
Rdel, excellent post. But I feel the momentum would kill Reid if not cloture.
If they like to debate, what about Cap and Trade?
#207
How can anyone expect anything less from you????
Rdel,
You are placing too much emphasis on the public option. The end bill will have triggers and mandates.
The triggers will guarantee a takeover of HC within a few short years and mandates will result in a dramatic loss of personal freedom.
And as far as my source on NJ, he ultimately said that Christie would win by 20k votes, while he was off. I also said that he got his stuff from second hand – while he was keyed into VA rather closely.
As far as VA, when some pushed the panic buttton on the thesis, I told you that polls (which were narrowing) would reverse, and that the R would win…
The obammer map
#208
I think Obama said he was going to postpone cap and trade. I mean, he couldn’t get crap from the Chinese on climate chang. More “smart diplomacy”.
And this same source, gave me the bad news on OH and Florida days before the 2008 Election.
The problem is that each step Reid wins, the more the media will try to swing public opinion.
Mdefl,
i will ignore…
Tina,
I remember you clearly stating that the NJ info was second hand. I also thought Corzine would prevail but that was a personal opinion. I had no sources on the Jersey race of the VA race for that matter.
It was obvious that McDonnell was going to win big. I think I projected +14.
Chekote it passed the House. Senate would not even debate crap and Trade.
And on nj, my personal opinion was that Christie would win. It took me a while to get on board, and I did not like the manner in which he campaigned for most of the last month (except the last week).
#215
They do that anyway.
rdelbov,
Are may facts correct in #204?
214 – Tina,
I was castigated here the Thursday before the election because my source in the FL GOP stated that Obama had a 2 point lead and they did many different samples and came up with the same result.
Most here accused my source of trying to manipulate results. They contended that since he supported Romney in the primary that he must want Mac to lose. They flat out accused him of lying. I bought into that and asked directly. He hung up on me. We patched things up and he basically that all of our nerves were frayed.
Also, my PA source was spot on in the PA primary and very close in the POTUS race.
The vote on Saturday is to open the debate on HCR, right?
—
Yes
The real key vote, however, will be sometime in the future for cloture to end the debate. Is that right?
—
Yes
Knighthawk that is correct
Just to clarify – I was stating that they had 60 to open…
When is Congress recessing for the Holidays?
….than i completely agree with #200…..a debate was going to happen….so….LET’S DEBATE (and debate……..and debate…..and)
Time is our friend.
Mdefl,
I debated whether to not post any stuff this go around after the 2008.
Time is our friend
But Rinos and mod. D are the enemy.
Rdel, I will follow your lead.
It seems to me that you think this will never come to vote in 2009. right?
Yup the key vote or votes will be 1st key vote, after saturday, will be amendments. Stupak-immigrants-taxes-public option.
Then the big vote will be cloture on the final bill after amendments.
If Reid defeats all amendments then Lieberman, Nelson and others will billbuster the bill.
On what happens if Reid loses on amendments is a whole other question
Tina,
I am not shy about posting those things even if it does not favor us. It is what it is.
As for Oprah, she should be kissing Sarah’s buttocks:
http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/11/sarah-palin-oprah-ratings-.html
“….As for Oprah, she should be kissing..”
They made a movie about that once:
Beauty and the Beast.
Right now I do not see the democrats giving up on the public option.
The house wants it and the majority of senate members want it.
Without a public option Obamacare is lots of nasty stuff funneling profits to the health insurance companies. The bill literally would take money from seniors and disabled folks and it to HMO’s.
So for the liberals its the Public Option or bust
#232
Palin matched the Osmonds. Maybe Oprah’s audience likes celebrities with lots of kids.
Why liberals hate Palin
…….time will continue to be “our friend” in an amplified way as:
a) the economic news, specifically unemployment gets worse; and
b) we get closer to the midterms.
Is there any way to add “ignore user” functionality?
It sure would be nice to put Chekote on ignore and avoid reading her useless drivel.
The Fox News write up on its poll:
As Sarah Palin blankets the media on a whirlwind book promotion tour, the former vice-presidential contender is clearly back on America’s radar screen. Despite being characterized by many as a divisive force in her party and the nation, Americans are much more likely to give Palin a positive rating (47 percent favorable) than another prominent female leader — Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (28 percent favorable). Moreover, about six in 10 Americans (61 percent) think Palin has been treated unfairly by the press, according to the latest Fox News poll.
Palin has been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2012, along with a host of other Republicans. Among self-identified Republicans in the survey, Palin gets the highest favorable ratings (70 percent) amid a group of other possible contenders for the GOP nomination, including Mike Huckabee (63 percent), Mitt Romney (60 percent) and Newt Gingrich (58 percent). Palin’s favorable score among all voters is 47 percent, up nine percentage points over last July’s reading of 38 percent.
Another woman who has often been called divisive over the years is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. When asked if they’d rather spend the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday with Palin or Clinton, the choice does provoke considerable division — with each attracting about 40 percent to a hypothetical turkey fest (Clinton 42 percent; Palin 39 percent). About one in seven Americans (14 percent) volunteers the view that neither would be welcome in their home next Thursday.
President Obama recently stated that he “probably won’t” read Sarah Palin’s new book. But his possible opponent in the 2012 elections trails him in personal favorability by only seven points (54 percent to 47 percent). Among the critical segment of independent voters, they are virtually even (Obama at 50 percent; Palin at 49 percent).
I received 11 of my Going Rogue copies yesterday. My wife has now mailed 10 of those to lib friends. 7 more are still coming.
My contribution to humanity.
Cook Political Report: Obama Is ‘Beyond Radioactive’ in Key Democratic Districts
The Cook Political Report lays out what readers of this blog have been hearing a lot lately:
Plenty of veteran Democrats who haven’t had to break a campaign sweat this decade are quickly losing their aura of invincibility. Next fall, some in this category are likelier to face tough races than many of the 42 less tenured Democrats who populate the “Frontline” list. As of today, eight House Democrats elected prior to 2006 sit in our “Lean Democratic” and “Toss Up” columns, and another 20 whom we view as potentially vulnerable sit in our “Likely Democratic” column.
This is not to say that highly influential and venerated fixtures such as Reps. Ike Skelton (MO-04), John Spratt (SC-05), Bart Gordon (TN-06), John Tanner (TN-08) and Rick Boucher (VA-09) are goners next year. Their eventual vulnerability is highly dependent on the quality of GOP nominees and the discipline of their “time for change” messages. But if these party elders decide to seek reelection rather than retire, the underlying dynamics of their districts suggest at least several will need to fight to survive.
Many watchers of House politics are tempted to downplay the potential for real races in these districts after taking one look at immediate past election history. How could Republicans possibly threaten the likes of Skelton or Spratt, both of whom won more than 62 percent of the vote in 2008? Or Gordon, Tanner, or Boucher, all of whom were unopposed last year? But that was before they were saddled with a sitting Democratic president who is beyond radioactive in their districts. History is history.
Less than a year out from Election Day, it’s time to rethink who the vulnerable Democrats are. And if President Obama is the dominant issue of the 2010 midterms (and rarely has a midterm not been a referendum on the incumbent president), Democrats ought to be seriously concerned about districts where reliable surveys suggest voters are in open revolt against him. Democrats would rather not draw attention to their problems in these districts, but both parties recognize the sea change underway.
What is “beyond radioactive”?
GPO,
The second the House passed HC, I revised my prediction upwards.
Tommy Boy,
From the fox poll, you pick what suits you and discard what doesn’t.
70% of the American people believe that Sarah Palin is UNQUALIFIED to be President.
You can explain away anything you want, but I hope the Republicans nominate Palin in 2012.
The idea that YOU think that she speaks for the majority of the American peolpe is ludicrous.
Remember, you guys thought Bush was qualified to be President as well, so your judgement is questionable, at best.
Go ahead make the Democrats day and nominate her in 2012.
It will be a crushing defeat for the Republican Party.
GPO: “What is “beyond radioactive”?”
a black hole?
241…you could sum up that whole article with the simple observation that when the GOP base goes to the polls in 2010, they will see the name “NANCY PELOSI” on the touchscreen no matter which district in the country it is that they live.
Go ahead make the Democrats day and nominate her in 2012.
It will be a crushing defeat for the Republican Party.
Comment by Alan
When the sheeple elected that manchurian imposter from kenya as POTUS the bar was forever lowered. If a neo marxist nihilistic narcissist like obammer can get elected, there is no standard that has to be met.
I like Sarah Palin, but there is no way she will be the nominee this time around. She needs atleast 8 more years. The good thing about Sarah is that if she runs she will not work to damage the republican party nominee like Pat Buchanan did.
and that is why I think these congressional prognosticators are fooling themselves if they think that a blue dog like Glenn Nye (VA_02) will be save just because he kept his nose clean on cap/trade and Pelosicare. IT WON’T MATTER. Pelosi will be vicariously on the ballot in VA_02.
Charlie Crist (R) 47 (57)
Marco Rubio (R) 37 (4)
That’s a 43-point swing in the last 10 months. Dramatic. Now we wanted to know where Rubio’s support was coming from, and so we decided to see if there was a correlation between the birthers — the craziest of the GOP’s base — and this primary.
Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America, or not? (Asked only of GOP primary voters)
Yes 35
No 29
Not Sure 36
Was Obama born in US?
Yes No Not sure
Crist 73 31 33
Rubio 16 54 45
Wow. Clear correlation. The crazier the Republican, the better Rubio does. Of the sanest Republicans — those who don’t buy into the crazy birther conspiracy theories, only 16 percent support Rubio compared to the whopping 73 percent who support Crist. The governor’s problem is that only 35 percent of Florida Republicans fall under that category. Note the birther crosstabs for both the general and GOP primary election samples — the general election sample is less crazy, with 57 percent of Republicans saying Obama was born in the US, compared to 35 percent of likely GOP primary voters.
These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there’s little chance of him surviving. Remember, Rubio hasn’t spent a dime on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the teabaggers are engaged, angry, and looking for the next Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him, and failing. Note — 50 percent of Republicans still don’t know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does.
Marist Poll
NY-SEN Special
Rudy (R) 54 %
Gillibrand (D) 40 %
Undecided 6 %
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/ny091112/Giuliani/2010%20Matchup%20US%20Senate%20in%20NYS_Gillibrand_Giuliani.htm
GOP Primary
Rudy Giuliani 71 %
George Pataki 24 %
Undecided 5 %
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/ny091112/Giuliani/Complete%20November%2019,%202009%20NYS%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf
……..ah….the old “republicans are crazy” argument…..the corollary to the even older “republicans are stupid” argument we’ve heard for the better part of 30 years.
Pretty big talk from a supporter of Joe “FDR on television in ‘29″ Biden.
Marist Poll
NY-SEN Special
Rudy (R) 54 %
Gillibrand (D) 40 %
Undecided 6 %
…..
WOW!
I really like the idea of Rudy in the Senate. I like the guy personally, I like how he stepped up and lead on 9-11, and think he’s about as conservative as a candidate that could win in New York… I do, however, think he shouldn’t immediately be looking at the Presidency…
I’m starting to see a chance of Republicans taking the Senate in 2010.
We could see Republicans in Obama’s seat, Biden’s seat, and Hillary’s seat. Wouldn’t that be great?
252…GULP!
253….that would be quite a hat-trick.
Gillibrand is GONE once Rudy declares. I’m breathing a sign of relief that Rep. Steve Israel (D) decided not to challenge Gillibrand in a Dem. Primary.
That would have complicated matters with Rudy because Israel would have been likely a far more formidable Candidate than Gillibrand is now.
We could see Republicans in Obama’s seat, Biden’s seat, and Hillary’s seat. Wouldn’t that be great?
Comment by Sean — November 19, 2009 @ 4:07 pm
These Senate Seats have all once in common. Most of them got appointed.
AND usually appointed Senators doing far more worse in their first Elections see Menendez in 2006.
Had 2006 not been a Dem year Kean Jr. would have won.
I agree that Palin wont be the nominee in 2012, but whoever she gets the nomination will need her endorsement. I truly expect it to be Thune with a very strong Palin endorsement
That clicking sound you hear is all of the prognostication websites moving NY senate seat from tossup to LEANS GOP.
I received 11 of my Going Rogue copies yesterday. My wife has now mailed 10 of those to lib friends. 7 more are still coming.
My contribution to humanity.
But I am obsessed with Palin….
#259
Did Giuliani OFFICIALLY announce a run for the Senate?
whoever she gets the nomination will need her endorsement
You are probably right on this.
Chek- link Daniel G posted earlier
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/11/19/2009-11-19_former_mayor_rudy_giuliani_to_announce_plan_to_run_for_us_senate.html
Rudy just denied it.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1109/Giuliani_camp_denies_Senate_report.html?showall
264…that would be staffer denying it…who quoted past statements from Rudy saying he wouldn’t be interested.
Don’t they always deny it?
#263
I want to see footage of him announcing.
#264
That is why I want to see footage of Giuliani announcing it.
new thread
#
Don’t they always deny it?
Comment by Brandon — November 19, 2009 @ 4:21 pm
Excatly. They always deny it. Don’t pay Attention to “Spokespersons” all the time.
Quote from Rep. Pete King (R) last Night:
Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), who spoke at length with Giuliani after a campaign fundraiser last night, told POLITICO that he had no inside information about Giuliani’s political future, but did think it would make sense for him to pursue the Senate race.
“It makes sense for Rudy to run for Senate, because these are the issues he’s been focusing on — international issues, national security. He really has a lot to say. On the other hand, Rudy’s background is as an executive,” King said.
“I can see him wanting to run for president again, and doing the Senate race would position him well for that…. the Senate would be a great opportunity to keep him in the public eye — keep him in the national attention more, rather than in the narrow prism of the governorship.”
Well, the NY Daily News is claiming almost excatly Kings Quote.
It doesn’t matter what the polls say now. If Palin runs in 2012, she will be tough to beat. She connects with voters like no other since Reagan. She is by far the most charismatic of all potential GOP candidates. Right now voters are not focused and they are being swayed by the negative caricatures of the left and the elitist inside the beltway republicans. By the time 2012 rolls around, Palin will be looking very good.
They don’t usually bother denying it if they are actually going to announce later that same week, sounds to me like the post and the times both got slightly different versions of the same bad information.