AZ: Hayworth Within 2% Of McCain
New numbers from Scott Rasmussen for the state of California has Barbara Boxer stuck at 46%, but still with a double-digit lead over the top two Republicans.
US SENATE – CALIFORNIA (Rasmussen)
Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%
Carly Fiorina (R) 37%Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%
Chuck Devore (R) 36%
I continue my plea to California Republicans, please pick anyone besides Carly Fiorina. I am still trying to wake up from the speech she gave at the 2008 convention. This poll was done November 17th among 500 likely voters. And speaking of the 2008 convention, Rasmussen shows that the man who headlined that convention may have trouble getting the nomination for his own US Senate seat in Arizona.
US SENATE – ARIZONA (Rasmussen)
John McCain (inc) 45%
JD Hayworth 43%
Chris Simcox 4%
This poll was done November 18th among 570 likely voters.
1st
What do we know about Hayworth? Conservative? Would he be electable in the general? Think Mc Cain would like to be Defense Sec in a republican admin?
Healthcare tanking at Intrade.
Bishops deserve credit for this.
Rasmussen’s write-ups are great
March Hc contract tanking.
Tommy, RAS is the only one I follow. Live or die by him.
I think Haysworth would win in Nov but McCain is unlikely to be beat in a primary.
2.
Yes, either Hayworth or McCain in the general. Frankly, I would rather it be Hayworth.
I don’t know Rdel. A lot of conservatives are extremely pissed off at McCain for a lot of reasons. Conservatives, when motivated, vote in mids. Yes, it is unlikely that McCain would lose a primary but it is hardly impossible.
wasn’t Hayworth the guy (real homespun, folksy conservative) who used to appear on the Imus radio show periodically?
Ras was spot on in 08. He is a good one to follow.
Rdel, Bishops are going nuclear today on Reid.
I don’t hate Mc Cain, it is just time for new blood.
Here is what Reid is facing. Dateline today.
an official of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops said Sen. Harry Reid’s bill is the worst he’s seen so far on the divisive issue.
The Catholic bishops have come down strong on the abortion provision in Reid’s bill. That puts huge pressure on Nelson-Landrieu.
Timing wise I still see no harm in starting this debate. No harm is a relative term. They could get 42 or 43 votes on saturday to prevent this bill from debate. That would be sweet but Reid could redo the Public option-remove the abortion clause and debate could start after Thanksgiving. By puttin Stupak in and taking Public option out Reid would pick up Snowe, the others and maybe Collins.
So if Reid is going to get this debate started, one way or another, I say lets start debating a bad bill. This bill will not pass. I would rather be dealing with a bad bill that cannot pass then a lousy bill that might pass
15…I hope you are right that this disaster bill will not pass. I fear that it might. Rememeber what happens when history calls Snowe on the phone?
THERE ONCE WAS AN OLD DAME FROM MAINE,
TREASON WAS HER ONLY CLAIM TO FAME,
SOLD OUT HER PARTY IN A FLASH,
OUR THROATS SHE DIDN’T HESITATE TO SLASH,
TO THE REPUBLIC SHE WILL FOREVER BE A BANE.
THERE ONCE WAS AN UGLY OLD HO,
WENT BY THE HANDLE OF OLYMPIA SNOWE,
AS A DEFINITE THREE BAGGER,
AND A MAGGOT GAGGER,
SHE’S ENOUGH TO MAKE A BUZZARD BLOW.
I would rather have Hayworth. H eis a solid conservative but Arizonais no longer a solid conservative state. I understand he is a rather unattractive and polarizing chacter who has already lost a majority GOP seat so I am dubious.
3…Thank you Jason. After so many weeks of bashing the Catholic church I appreciate someone that can see beyond their nose. I realize there are many things the church stands for that really irks people on this site. As a Roman Catholic I can truthfully say that I sometimes struggle with the teachings of the church. However, I am proud that after so many years of silence that the American Bishops have begun to speak out when policy effects the teachings of the church and basic principals of chirstianity.
Hayworth would be a fantastic senator; his record in the House was solidly conservative & he is a very powerful speaker also. I understand Bill’s worry that he might not win statewide, having lost his own district before. But that was in a great Dem year; 2010 will be a great Rep year.
I didn’t see Carly’s 2008 convention speech, so i can’t speak to that. On the other hand, despite a somewhat rocky start to her campaign, Carly has started righting herself recently. She’s been articulate and personable in recent interviews and has come away with some memorable quotes. For instance, she said recently to Neil Cavuto, “After cancer, Barbara Boxer doesn’t seem so scary.” She’s been railing against professional politicians and has indicated she wants to decreases taxation and regulation to create jobs. It seems to me basing a desire for her not to get the nod on a two-year-old speech is a bit anachronistic–especially in light of the fact that DeVore would be damn near unelectable next year.
I like Hayworth, but he already squandered a seat in Congress. I think John Shadegg would be better if the GOP planned to rally around a challenger to McCain.
rdelbov…. I understand your point.
But I wonder if you are outsmarting yourself. lol
The way I see it, Reid put the public option and abortion in b/c it can’t pass without both. And if it gets stalled now… that is a win for us, and starts the ball rolling to stop the thing. If debate can not be started on a bill in the Senate with a public option, the whole thing will acquire the stink of death amongst many people, including the media.
Bottom line for me is kill it every chance you have to kill it.
Agreed, Bay.
I continue my plea to California Republicans, please pick anyone besides Carly Fiorina.
I don’t know that Californians have much to choose from. In any case, I think it is time to get beyond whether someone can give a great speech or draw a crowd and start focusing on whether they can govern effectively. Our country is in deep trouble. We need people who can turn it around.
Hi Wes!
Hi, Chek.
Chek, I think Dave’s too focused on a two-year-old speech no one else remembers. Given the alternative to Fiorina in the primary, I have to sya she’s the best bet of knocking off that hag.
Hey did I read somewhere that Blanche (I cant type her last name out of general principles) said she was going to announce her vote intention today?
You guys do a great job as a Poet
I’m no linguist, don’t I know it.
Reid has to be stopped for all our sakes
Please O Lord, forgive us our mistakes
We elected Obama who was to govern from the center
but quickly he showed us his Marxist banner
Rahm it down our throats, he really doesn’t care
All of your money, with others you must share
If only I was a poet, I could say it well
God please save us from communist hell
What is wrong with Carly? She is a businesswoman. She is a vote to give the Senate to the GOP.
Apparently she gave a bad speech once, Bay. It seems to have traumatized Dave so much he just can’t forgive her for it.
Hayworth will win the primary and the general.
2010 will be unlike any other year.
If he wins the primary, then he’d almost certainly win the general next year, Howie. Looking to the future, he’s already squandered a safe GOP seat once. That does not bode well for the future for him…although he may have learned form his mistakes.
Wes,
I know understand why there are no statesmen/women. Modern politics is all about looks. Giving great speeches. There in no concern about whether the person has the ability to govern effectively. Obama is the prime example.
Chekote is probably dead on – Carly Fiorina is the best option we get on the R side coming out of California.
if you didn’t hear her 2008 speech, here is how it went…you have to read this in a flat monotone voice, and pay attention to what is in parenthesis:
(stare at teleprompter, read words, look up, and say) “I am here today to express my support for John McCain” (put on goofy plastic smile, while waiting for everyone to applaud. Please applaud soon, because I cannot hold this smile much longer…applause finished, look back at teleprompter, read next line, look up and say) “John McCain will put America first” (put on plastic smile, while waiting for applause)…on and on it goes
Did you remember to read that in monotone voice?
For those who remember it, did I get that right?
JD Hayworth is a windbag.
BayerF
I take your point. As I mentioned last night its a wheels within wheels situation. Reid has to cater to the 54 or so Democratic sentors who want nothing less then a public option. Hey actually 30 democratic senators would vote for single pay to be honest. So why should Reid give in, without a fight, when the majority of the US senate would vote for a public option.
So Reid throws his liberal bill out there and until it fails that turkey is in play. Does he stop if he only gets 58 votes to start debate? No and anyone if thinks this ends on Saturday would be incorrect. No if he fails on Saturday he goes to Snowe, Lieberman, Nelson or Landrieu or whoever and says what gets your vote to proceed.
All I can say is if that’s what going to happen its better to start that horse trading in late december then in late November.
Let the debate start on Tuesday 11-24-2009. Then let the votes start on 12-8-2009 and then fillbuster on 12-22-2009 when the Public option is still in the bill.
I might add that in the amendment process-Stupak might pass-illegal immigrants certainly will pass-plus the individual mandate might get booted out. Criminal penalties will certainly be removed. Gut the turkey and nothing may pass.
#37
So what? She started as a secretary and moved up to be a CEO. We should be grateful that people like her was to be associated with the GOP.
Boxer is safe.
John Glenn gave a speech at democratic convention-maybe 1976 or 1980 and I am still get drowsy thinking of it. ZZZZZZ
She’s not been like that at all in recent interviews, Darrell. Alrthough I live nowhere near Cali, I have a close friend out there who’s been follwing the campaign and is working hard to help her win the primary and general. To wit, the friend I refer to is closer to Rdelbov on the issues than to me. Personally I’ve been watching interviews with Carly every time I’ve been aware she was going to be on. She’s been smart, personable, funny, and concrete. It seems to em that’s the kind of person the GOP would want running for office out there.
Bill Clinton gave a bad keynote speech and lived to tell about it.
40, 43….oh I am for her, but I was just explaining what Dave Wissing was talking about.
I like Fiorina calm demeanor. She has the demeanor of an executive.
If we based every potential politician’s future on one bad speech, then we would probably have only four or five officeholders left in the country–not that that would necessarily be a bad thing.
Personally I’m not sure Carly can ultimately win–indeed, it’s an uphill battle–but given the fact that DeVore would basically cause Boxer to be declared the winner the second the polls close, I don’t see how the CAGOP has much choice but to nominate her if desirous having any chance of winning.
JD Hayworth is VERY polarizing, a virtual flame-thrower. Being that he’s already lost a conservative-leaning CD, if they nominate him over McCain, it could be a disaster. We might be throwing away a very reliable Republican seat. Beyond that, there’s one strong conservative voice who is near certain to come and campaign for McCain, should he need it — Sarah Palin. If he needs her help, is there any doubt that she’d give it to him? She owes him, bigtime!
I think it would be a HUGE mistake to primary McCain out. He’s one of the reliable Republicans who should be allowed to retire on his own terms. If it’s truly time for him to step down, then Republican leaders should encourage him to do so, behind closed doors.
If however, the worst were to happen, and Hayworth ends up beating McCain in a messy primary campaign, this could be a real disaster for the Republican party’s hopes for a big 2010. Remember what the liberal media is saying about NY-23: that conservatives rejecting Dede Scozzaflava, in favor of Doug Hoffman, showed that “No moderate neeed apply” for their support. The TRUTH is that Scozzaflava was NOT a moderate, she was a liberal, and a treasonous one at that! But if conservatives dump someone like John McCain, then the media will be proven correct, and national moderates and independents will be turned off from our party/movement in droves! We will look exactly like what the liberals say we are: extreme radicals.
story on drudge
Video: Sen. Inhofe to Sen. Boxer on global warming: ‘We Won, You Lost — Get a Life!’
Inhofe is a hero. One of the few heros in the senate.
Amen, Darrell.
NY-SEN
NRSC Chair John Cornyn (R) has picked up the Phone as I urged him to do and has called Rudy to run for Senate.
From Politics Daily:
Senator Rudy? Although Rudy Giuliani announced this week that he will not run for New York governor, Politics Daily has learned from Sen. John Cornyn, the Republicans’ top Senate recruiter, that GOP officials are pushing Rudy to challenge Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand for the seat once held by Hillary Clinton. Cornyn said Thursday that he has called the ex-mayor in the last several days to urge him to run in 2010 and that another top Republican senator has done the same. No word from the Giuliani camp on the ex-mayor’s plans, though.
Inhofe is a mighty fine senator. OK has two of the best.
If CA gets any worse can the democrats survive out there?
Howard I think you are right.
And everybody remember this… nothing is guaranteed by the past. We have no idea as to the uproar and tumult that would ensue were HC to pass and average voters find out what they have to do and pay over the next 4-5 years. Most are already turned off by what is going on NOW. And HC is only being TALKED about.
After medicare in 1965, the GOP gained 47 seats in 1966. After HC in 1993, the GOP gained 54 seats. There is no doubt in my mind that the GOP gains HUGE (around 50 seats) in 2010. Whether HC passes or not. If it passes, it will probably be more, as the details of the taxes andmandates come out in 2010. Average people (well… the young, the latte liberals, the elderly, the urbane Obama voters included) will be picking their jaws up off the floor as they realize what they are in for. And that would absolutely devastate Dem prospects in 2010.
Even with Obama in the WH, smart GOPers in Congress will immediately call for repeal, and the new GOP House and the GOP controlled Senate will do so. There will be no filibuster of that. If you want precedent…. think of Rostenkowski being mobbed AFTER catastrophic health care was PASSED in 1986-87. So nothing is set in stone.
Obama would be under enormous pressure to accede to repeal or face defeat (along with more Dem senators).
This whole thing could cement the GOP in power for another decade or two.
“Former Vice President Dick Cheney and his wife, Lynne Cheney, welcomed their seventh grandchild, Sarah Lynne Cheney, Wednesday, November 18, 2009. She weighed 6 lbs., 14 oz and was born at 8:17 A.M. at Sibley Hospital in Washington, D.C. Her parents are the Cheney’s daughter Mary and her partner, Heather Poe.”
Congratulations to the Cheneys.
Seen this? Did I scoop Brandon on this? Big news, think Holder is doing Obama any favors? How about Harry Reid?
OBAMA BELOW 50%….RUSH
#56 Gary Maxwell,
Dadgummit, you scooped me.
5 minutes Marv, an eternity in a basketball game but just enough here on HHR.
Primary challenge McCain – If he wins so be it, if he retires as he really should so be it, sure Hayworth is a bit of risk come general time,but I also don’t want to see mccain 10 years from now as the next Robert Byrd.
Carly – I’d prefer another candidate and have told her that, but she does have the better shot in my view against boxer and that’s all it is – a shot. I’d rather see her representing CA in the senate than Boxer, it’s a step up even if it’s not the step up many want. Either of them though winning is stretch at this point, there only hopes are very strong winds to push them over the finish line.
I agree with KH, wes and others that Carly, with all her imperfections, is probably the most viable candidate running against Boxer.
In fact DeVore, who I really like, is a carbon copy of Bill Jones, who ran against Boxer (and heavily lost) back in 2004. Both DeVore and Jones are “nice,” very conservative, melba toast men, with very little appeal to women. Whereas, with the demographics being what they are in CA, a business woman running against Boxer would have a much better chance of taking some of the professional female vote away from her.
I would LOVE for Haysworth to defeat McCain. Actually this would be my second favorite race to follow other than Kentucky.