MI: Hoekstra/Cherry Lead Gove Primaires
Some new numbers from Michigan to see who will eventually square off to take over for failed Governor Jennifer Granholm in Michigan from Denno-Noor.
GOVERNOR – MICHIGAN – GOP PRIMARY (Denno-Noor)
Pete Hoekstra 21%
Mike Cox 15%
Mike Bouchard 13%
Rick Snyder 5%
Tom George 3%GOVERNOR – MICHIGAN – DEM PRIMARY (Denno-Noor)
John Cherry 20%
Andy Dillon 6%
George Perles 6%
John Freeman 2%
Alma Wheeler Smith 2%
This poll was done November 12-17 among 930 likely voters.
First
MI=Highest unemployment in the nation.
Know what they need?
Yup.
More Democrats!
Enjoy the misery, MI!
HD,
Most of the R’s have left. D’s are all that is left so it is hard for them to lose in MI. BTW – I had a gift for you yesterday.
Let me go find it. Can you hang out for a bit?
Why not just let the Canadian Granthomeless run for a third term. Let them change the rules, if nec. to allow it?
HD – An early Merry Christmas to you:
http://www.made-in-china.com/image/2f0j00iMWtlRFJnhcPM/Word-s-Top-Fashion-Sexy-Mini-Dress-021.jpg
Cherry is really weak and has been getting crushed in the general election matchup polls.
Shout out
MD, I did see your link late yesterday.
But for some reason, I just clicked it again.
It’s a double treat for you!
You have to watch this SNL skit:
http://msunderestimated.com/2009/11/21/snl-obama-jintao-press-conference-in-beijing-video/
Most likely MI’s next Governor will be a Republican.
All of these states – MI, OH, PA, WI, and IA, among others – will have Republican governors.
And it is not fool’s gold.
10 – lol
Cute link, Howie.
HD,
Funny! I guarantee that Immelt received a call from Rahm and it won’t happen again. At least until NBC is sold to Comcast. BTW – they are libs as well. The #2 guy at Comcast is a huge Dem.
wes, I owe U an apology on the other thread, but do not like the charge you made.
Will IL go GOP, Sam?
Good chances, Wes.
Football Sunday – Yaaaaaaay!!!
It was an over the top remark, Tina, and I regretted it after I typed it. I should have been more judicious. I apologize for the unnecessarily demeaning way I portrayed my take on things.
I see the following Dem losses in 2010 governors’ races:
Open seats – KS, MI, OK, PA, TN, WI, and WY
Incumbents – CO, IA, and OH
Other possible Dem losses – MA, IL, MD, NM
“And it is not fool’s gold.”
—
LOL maybe not, but there are some fools up in them there hills though.
19 – Yup that’s what’s important apparently.
Its not fools gold, but lets hope the R party does not ruin victory in those races.
I agree with you McConnell should grow a spine though. Opposition to Obama requires people who will fight every step of the way. Sadly those in Washington seem not to realize that.
Tina:
Fair point.
Though I am sure the R’s will mess up some races. Just like the Dems do.
Pobody’s nerfect.
Do the 42% voters in CA who want to legalize & tax pot understand that it’s not going to help the state budget to any real degree? Do they understand the math and the depth of the hole they are actually in? If they want to legalize it, I say go for it, but they should not kid themselves that it will materially impact the state budget in a positive way.
/Random comment
Wes, you have made my point – perhaps better than I could. That is why I am upset. Again, I apologize about my remarks to you and respect your opinion here.
They want to tax anything that lives and breathes here in this state.
EAch time they raise taxes, revenues fall further.
Schwarznkennedy should have realized this, but he is no better than a D.
Hug it out.
Last I saw, ME and OR were also competitive for the GOP.
And Schwarznkennedy and the financial disaster he has left this state will weigh heavily on the Governor’s race here. Moonbeam could be beaten.
Wes, there are some races I don’t have a feel for, such as ME and OR
Thank you, Tina. I feel the same way.
Anyway, good day for now.
Shout out to the HHRs.
Wake up and just realize that Obamacare is one more step closer to passage. I hope the grass roots is not demoralized, but fear that it may be.
32 – Sure he could, don’t know that e-man is the right tool for the job.
I believe Governor Ritter is going to lose here in Colorado, however, I wish Josh Penry would have stayed in the race. McInnis would do much better than Ritter, but McInnis is part of the old Washington guard (former Congressman), where Penry was the energetic outsider….
The GOP needs to find politicians who will fight for core values and educate voters on the dangers of Dem policies. Very few of those exist now sadly.
Is Penry running for something else, Sean?
Folks,
PPP(D) is sees Obama weakness in the mid-west.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/sunday-morning-roundup.html
HMS Obama=going down
The takeaway from PPP is that they think Obama is “in the Red” in WI.
I just don’t think the R’s “get it” yet. The other side is playing for all the marbles and we are hoping to just pick up a couple.
They will do anything to win. Funny, they don’t even have to resort to the most noxious tactics since the R’s seem hell bent on making things easy.
I missed this apparently this week:
Jessie Jackson – “You can’t vote against healthcare and call yourself a black man.”
Wes,
What did you want McConnell to do? Seriously. The Dems have made a strategic decision that they needed to appease their base. Just like the GOP did when they proceeded with the impeachment of Clinton when polls that the majority of Americans were against. When they proceed with Schiavo. I mean the man got Snowe to vote with him.
#45
Oh great! Let’s throw race into the mix
ARBV
47 – When in doubt
#48 KnightHawk
Ok, I’ll bite. What is ARBV?
WTF?: Don’t taze me bro.. I’m 10
Who calls the cops cause there 10-year old girl will not goto bed?
Prefix for Venezuelan Navy ships.
#51
Unfortunately, there are a lot of parents that can’t manage their children. This is what happens when you try to be their friend insteaf of their parent.
Venezuela El-Norte.
Welcome to the future.
But remember – let us play nice.
40…. the blog entry just one spot down about seniors in North Carolina is devastating to the Dems. Dick Morris may be right. The Dems may be permanently losing seniors to the GOP. Wait till the young get a load of all the taxes they will pay and the mandates they will face under HC.
That parent should be billed for the service.
56 – May not matter though.
#57
Count me in. I am tired of accomodating irresponsibilty and stupidity. I would arrest parents if their kids drop of out school. If you are going to bring a child into this world, you are responsible for them and their actions until 18.
This health care reform train as been long coming. The GOP should have been able to see it and deal with it. The reason you didn’t get as much resistence this time is because large corporations want to dump the cost of health care on the government.
HC approval in Iowa 34-55
Jason,
They don’t care.
Jason, where did you see that?
Phil
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20091121/NEWS/91121005
All of these states – MI, OH, PA, WI, and IA, among others – will have Republican governors.
And it is not fool’s gold.
Comment by sam — November 22, 2009
Wes, you’re a fool.
1. Barrett is no light weight in Wisconsin.
2. Democrats will not lose New Mexico – period. Denish is too popular there and the GOP has no credible Candidate there.
3. Democrats won’t be losing Massachuetts as long as Independent Candidate Tim Cahill is in the Race.
4. Democrats will also likely hold Oregon if fmr. Senator Smith or Rep. Walden doesn’t get into the Race.
Your predictions are NUTS. Be realistic buddy.
I agree that the R’s will make substantial gains in Govs.
The key for them to remain a viable party is to retake the House. If that does not happen (for the record – I think it will happen) then we are looking at today’s version of the Whigs, circa 1851.
61 – An yet they still prefer bambi in IA.
Here is what’s making News this Sunday.
From State of the Union:
Quote from Freshman Senator Michael Bennett (D-Colorado)
A freshman Democratic senator said Sunday that he will support his party’s efforts to pass health care reform legislation even if that means losing his seat in next year’s midterm elections.
“If you get to the final point and you are a critical vote for health care reform and every piece of evidence tells you if you support the bill you will lose your job, would you cast the vote and lose your job?” CNN’s John King asked Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado on Sunday’s State of the Union.
“Yes,” Bennet bluntly and simply replied.
From Gateway Pundit…
“We have a winner!
Today’s chutzpah award goes to the distinguished liberal from Arkansas—
Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) told her senate colleagues tonight before the nationalized health care vote:
“We should be stopping the growth of government not expanding it more.“
Of course, she then proceeded to vote with her fellow democrats on their nationalized health care bill.”
The Dems don’t care about these polls because they know that once it is enacted, it will never be repealed and the people will adjust to their loss of freedom.
They will fight to the end to get this through. They have the winning formula.
“I would arrest parents if their kids drop of out school.”
–
How authoritarian of you? I wouldn’t consider such a thing.
If Democrats are prepared to lose their Jobs for the sake of Health Care we can do NOTHING about it.
67. Not really, Bambi is spiraling down in Iowa…
“Fewer than half of Iowans approve of President Barack Obama’s performance in office a year after he carried the state in the 2008 election, according to The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll.
Obama’s overall job approval slipped to 49 percent from 53 percent in September. Iowans’ approval is down 19 percentage points since an Iowa Poll in January, about the time he was inaugurated.”
How about we not worry about the turkey being warm and keep up the pressure with the American people?
That would have been a nice start. Too late now.
68 – Well at least it was an honest answer, telling you they are going all-in on this one.
“If Democrats are prepared to lose their Jobs for the sake of Health Care we can do NOTHING about it.”
That’s true, but some of them might be in denial, and if we convince them they WILL lose their jobs some might opt for survival.
to 70.
You’re right. Dems will fight teeth and nail to get this through. We just haven’t the Votes to stop it.
73 – An yet the llama is still at 49%, how is that possible?
“If Democrats are prepared to lose their Jobs for the sake of Health Care we can do NOTHING about it.”
Remember, just because folks at Kos are willing to sacrifice their jobs it doesn’t necessarily mean the sacrificees have signed on.
Also Bennett could not answer yes to that question without being burned at the stake.
I mean Benett could not answer NO.
jason,
Look back at the Stimulus Legislation. I bet the WH & Reid will cut a backroom Deal with Snowe, Lieberman, Lincoln, Landrieu and Nelson to get this through.
Ben Nelson will be their “Point Man”. He persuaded Snowe, Collins and Specter to vote for the Stimulus.
I could see a similar Scenario happening with Health Care.
Snowe isn’t that Steadfast as you think.
From Instapundit
“Rather than face a crowd of protestors who jeered at his appearance, Sen. Chris Dodd entered LaCupola’s restaurant through the back entrance Saturday for a luncheon with Democrats.
Lining Route 202 and carrying signs that read “Dump Dodd,” more than 80 protestors underscored the political perils the senator faces as he runs for a seventh-term.
Quinnipiac polls released earlier this month show 54 percent of Connecticut voters disapprove of Dodd’s job performance. Polls have him trailing Republican challenger Rob Simmons by more than 10 percent ahead of next year’s election.”
And for heavens sake had the GOP not defended their Iraq Strategy in 2006 & 2006 we wouldn’t have been in the Situation we’re facing now.
“I bet the WH & Reid will cut a backroom Deal with Snowe, Lieberman, Lincoln, Landrieu and Nelson to get this through.”
Maybe but they better get approval from the House moonbats. Any deal with those 4 will mean dropping the PO and some of the soak the rich schemes. How will that play in Pelosiland? Move.on and Daily Kos will scream bloody murder and start a revolution. Roland Burris will think he is a real Senator and balk.
A back room deal on HC will be harder to come about than the one for the stimulus.
jason,
Pelosi will have to deal with it. On this Reform REID IS THE KING and not the House Speaker.
“On this Reform REID IS THE KING and not the House Speaker.”
I doubt Pelosi agrees. She knows Reid would double cross her at the first opportunity. I wish we could put both of them, armed with knives, in a shack with no windows and no lights along with a king cobra and see who would come out alive.
Philip Klein at American Spectator paints a more optmistic view…I hope he is right….
” With that said, there are plenty of ways for everything to completely fall apart for Democrats in the coming weeks and months. Though Reid was able to unite his caucus for tonight’s vote, at least two Senators — Joe Lieberman and Blanche Lincoln — have unequivocally said that they would block any bill that still included a government plan at the end of the upcoming amendment process. Sen. Mary Landrieu said that Reid wouldn’t have 60 votes unless Democrats agree to weaken the government plan so that it is triggered if private insurers don’t reach certain benchmarks. Sen. Ben Nelson has said he wants more restrictive abortion language in the bill. That doesn’t include other Democratic Senators whose votes could be in doubt depending on how the amendment process goes. It’s worth keeping in mind that once the bill reaches the floor, Reid will need 60 votes to make any changes. It’s really difficult to see how there could be 60 votes in the Senate to go as far as the House did to ensure that no taxpayer money covers abortions. And it’s also questionable whether there are 60 votes to remove (or at least weaken) the government plan.
Even if Reid figures out a way to get his caucus to fall into line and squeaks the bill through the Senate, the Senate bill would still have to be reconciled with the House version. And anything that gets negotiated in that conference (on abortion language, the government plan, etc.) could upset the delicate balance that enabled Speaker Nancy Pelosi to pass the House bill by a narrow 220 to 215 vote margin.”
68 – And yes, Bennet will lose his job. Colorado will go the direction of Virginia next year.
Its a little early to project governor’s races for next year.
I can see a huge tidal wave for the GOP with perhaps 10 seats.
Even states like CA, OR and NM that look tough can turn. 10% unemployment and a discouraged base can do that for you.
In NM if you want to vote against democrats the governor’s office is a good place to start. I see more taxes and budget cuts in NM next year.
48/44 in gallup today!!
90. WOW! I have champagne on ice (well, in the fridge) for the first day Gallup goes negative.
I hate to cover more of the same ground again on obamacare but here goes.
1. GOP is at 40 in the senate and at 177 in the house. That means all the opening moves are the democrats and all the early moves will favor them. That’s why elections matter.
2. In the committee votes, the 1st house vote and the 1st senate vote I am not sure what folks here were expecting. Do you John Boehner to walk up to Pelosi and slap her then challenge her to a duel? Or Perhaps McConnell and the GOP Senators should have 24/7 talkathons while the democrats go home for Thanksgiving? Its easy to call McConnell a surrendercrat when he has 40 votes.
3. As I have said for several weeks the ball is now in the court of the US senate plus the party moderates of the democrats in the house. Delay, amend, delay and fillbuster is now the business of the day. All that quick and easy committee votes plus narrow house votes or 60-40 senate votes mean a lot less right now.
a. Anything less then Stupak will not pass the house.
b. Most if not all of the individual parts of the senate bill will not pass the senate.
c. The economy is worsening, the polls are worsening and time is running short.
d. All you have to have is one US senator (on the democrat side) say I want this or else. Or give me some time to think this over and the train wreck called Obamacare stalls.
e. There are dozens of possible killer amendments:public option, stupak, illegal immigration, sunset provisions and budget neutral. One of two of these puppies can kill this bill.
The good news is that we starting on 11-30-2009 and there are no rules for how this plays out. This uncertainity is our biggest advantage as the road to passage for Reid-Pelosi is completely unknow.
I wish I would have your optimismn but I haven’t so far, rdelbov.
No way HC passes the House. No way the Senate will even vote to open the debate. It is DOA.
All things typed on here numerous times.
Beckel literally laughed on Hannity’s show. According to him, the deals have already been made and it is a done deal.
Daniel, next time you call me a fool, at least refer to a post I make. You were responding to post by Sam, not me, you fool.
The adventures of Mitchy Poo, part 1:
“Darling, have you seen my ascot? You know you Miffy is at the club. All gentlemen must have ascots. Oh, that Miffy! What a card”.
“Beckel literally laughed on Hannity’s show. According to him, the deals have already been made and it is a done deal.”
Then what’s the point in even discussing HC anymore?
Make them fight and truly bleed Sam. Man, you are pretty slow on this.
“All of these states – MI, OH, PA, WI, and IA, among others – will have Republican governors.
And it is not fool’s gold.”
Daniel G:
“Wes, you’re a fool.
1. Barrett is no light weight in Wisconsin.
2. Democrats will not lose New Mexico – period. Denish is too popular there and the GOP has no credible Candidate there.
3. Democrats won’t be losing Massachuetts as long as Independent Candidate Tim Cahill is in the Race.
4. Democrats will also likely hold Oregon if fmr. Senator Smith or Rep. Walden doesn’t get into the Race.
Your predictions are NUTS. Be realistic buddy.
Comment by Daniel G. — November 22, 2009 @ 12:17″
Who is a fool here, numbnut?
I am talking about PA, OH, IA, WI and MI. Why do you bring in NM, OR and MA?
MD
Beckel was close to Mondale. He did stellar work getting him elected in 1984. I do not put a lot of faith in what he has to say.
I recall what Stupak had to say about some white house spokesman about him not knowing what he was talking about.
I for one never suggested that Pelosi could not get a bill passed nor did I ever suggest that senate would not take the bill up for discussion. Most of the posters here that I respect did not make those startling claims.
I look at Reid-Harkin-Pelosi and I get optimistic. If anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory its them.
Here Heggehog, like in DC, we are in the gabbing and staking out positions phase. Reid-Harkin want action in three weeks while McConnell wants six weeks of debate. Look for something in the middle. Brown-Sanders want nothing less then a robust public option or they will will vote for the bill. Nelson-Lincoln-Landrieu-Liebermab say the exact oppisite. Who will bend and who break?
Its all just BS until the voting starts.
I do not want any bill. The best way to kill is by individual votes in the senate. Will Reid allow that? Not if he has to. Of course on 12-22-2009 if Lieberman & Nelson plus a few others will not budge maybe we will see some additional votes.
How do you know they are not already bleeding? The two pieces of actual evidence we have had are NJ and VA.
The further pieces of evidence will come in Nov 2010.
Is Modo turning on Obama? Check out the favorable impression of Palin, hahahah.
Visceral Has Its Value
By Maureen Dowd
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/opinion/22dowd.html
Regarding Bennett’s comments further up in the thread:
I have always maintained that Dems are going to be kamikaze votes on HC. They are willing to lose Congress and the WH to get socialized medicine.
Plus, they know that this Congress is their only chance for the next 40 years.
It doesn’t take a genius to recognize that they will pass socialized medicine. Consequences don’t matter.
Sam
here’s my quick rundown
possible GOP pickups
ME, MA, NY, PA, TN, OH, MI, IL, WI, Iowa, OK, KS, CO, NM, WY, OR and CA (17) some are more likely then others and yes primaries & indie candidates do matter.
Possibel GOP losses
RI, VT, CT, NV, AZ and HW. (5) there are several term limited govs plus popular incumbents are retiring.
There are some absolute wild cards out there. Paterson in NY if he wants to play hardball can secure some sort of third party line in NY. He could lose the Dem. primary to Coumo and then be on the Working peoples or Liberal line. Cahill could drop out in MA plus Green party candidates can get huge votes in NM or OR in statewide races.
There is so much dragging the democrats down right now. Of course if we trade HW, VT, RI and CT for PA, OH, MI and IL that might be a fair swap.
Rdel:
CA is not a GOP pickup, it is a GOP open seat right now. I’d consider it a toss-up at best, at this point.
As you said, some of the Dem states are not really in play at this time (NM and OR come to mind). Otherwise, I agree with your take.
Overall, that is why I say that we are looking at about 10+/- net gOP GOP pickup in 2010. I am sure the picture will get clearer as we come closer to Nov.
So Gallup has it at 48/44 today. Very bad for Obama. This is a poll of adults which means it includes the hope and change morons who don’t vote and have their hands out society to support them.
It further means it’s another poll showing Obama cratering among independents since a Gallup poll of adults is about D+10.
Finally, Beckel doesn’t have a shred of credibility and hasn’t in years.
Thought some of you might want to know that both Perry and bailout have both started running their campaign ads this weekend.
As expected, Perry emphasizing problems in Washington and that he’s not part of them. Running against the Washington crowd (KBH) and emphasizing his independence from them.
KBH ad is all about her ranting against Obamacare. Not a bad strategy until Obama signs something before the March primary. At that point I doubt if Republican primary voters are going to exactly welcome her as a conguering hero.
Stupid IMO.
CA has a republican governor?
Okay I will not break the 11th commandment.
I did forget about Arnold.
CA-OR-NM are long or longer shots but OR & NM (in my lifetime at least) have surprised folks with GOP wins.
Hope & Change has not broke yet but its bending
I understand bailout needs to do something to cut into Perry’s lead among conservative primary voters. However, once Obama signs a bill, conservatives are going to be livid and are going to turn even more on KBH.
We’re already angry.
Angry does not begin to capture how we feel Phil. Remember Hussein Chavez is a “centrist”.
I might add that despite what this poll says I believe that AG Cox will easily win the GOP primary.
“Beckel literally laughed on Hannity’s show. According to him, the deals have already been made and it is a done deal.”
Beckel is a Democratic political hack of course he going to say that. We are now quoting Beckel to prove a point here? Why don’t you just quote Reid directly, he knows more than Beckel and he says the public option will pass.
I don’t agree with all those GOV pick-ups but I do with some of them. I think the GOP should be seen as favored in PA and MI and in Iowa if Branstad runs, all important states. I think MA is out of the question and ME and IL and NY(without Rudy) really iffy. I also think CA is uphill as well as OR and OH and NM. The others are feasible.
But if someone offered me right now PA, MI, IA, CO and TN I would take it. It would give the GOP a comeback in the big Northern industrial states and reclaim Iowa and Colorado and Tennessee. I would hope for more but I wouldn’t be unhappy with those pick-ups.
Colts win!
“Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), told POLITICO’s The Arena: “I have made it clear to the administration and Democratic leadership that my vote for the final bill is by no means guaranteed.”
Sanders said no public option no yes vote. Trigger not acceptable. But since Snowe supports the trigger they can afford to lose Sanders, but not Lieberman.
Remember the undefeated year by the Patriots?
Everything happened that allowed them to win games at the very end of games.
This is happening with the Colts this year.
Amazing.
Frank
How does even Vermont tolerate a communist like Sanders in the Senate?
Or Leahy for that matter. Leahy and Sanders would be the first two people strung up on piano wire in a conservative revolution.
The same way they tolerated a turncoat rino like jeffords.
#86….I hope the KING COBRA!
The adventures of Mitchy Poo part Dos:
“Sarah Palin? She is nothing more than an impertinent, skunk shooting trollip who clearly does not understand her station in life and how to respect her uppers. Sweeticums, is the guest wing ready for the Rockefellers of West Virginia? They are the only citizens of West Virginia allowed on this natch”.
Better to be hung on their own leotards.
Cahill will bail in MA. I suspect he drops out and runs for his old office as an Indie. He has no chance to win Gov in Mass. Think that guy in NJ-whatever his name was-that was all the rage for a month or two.
During this gabfest period between votes naturally Reid will express confidence. Its how you build on momentum. I might add that the 1st several votes-which Reid will help dictate the order of will almost certainly be votes that Reid will win. That’s how the game is played. Same with Sanders or Lieberman. You draw the line in the sand. I suspect, however, that liberals will hold their nose and vote for this turkey. Many Moderate democrats are really hoping that this bill dies. They just do not want the blame for it.
All I can say to the GOP is to talk slowly and delay everything you can.
Yea, just like they did yesterday.
“Many Moderate democrats are really hoping that this bill dies. They just do not want the blame for it.”
I trust more in the Moonbat Dems to stop the bill because it’s not socialistic enough than the Moderate Dems (if they exist) to stop it because it’s too socialistic.
Strip the PO and abortion funding and the netroots will be in a uproar and might actually be stupid enough (from their perspective) to scuttle the bill.
The PO and the abortion language will not be stripped and Loserman and Lincoln and Nelson and gang will be on the line. The bill actually has to go down before the moonbats will consider coming down. This showdown is coming and we will see if Loserman and gang mean business. After all the braVADO and his Meet The Press interview today, I dont see how he does not filibuster without becoming a complete joke.
MD
No GOP senator voted to start the debate on healthcare.
What more could McConnell do? He’s not that pope who can create new Cardinals.
I might add that the senate calendar is absolutely jammed pack with stuff that needs to be done as the GOP has stalled and delayed on appointments and passing bills.
Right now the ball is on Reid’s court as he can decide how to proceed. How about those bluffs about working Thanksgiving week? 9 more days without Obamacare as nothing is happening until the afternoon or early evening 11-30-2009.
McConnell needs help to defeat this bill. Time is his best friend. he needs someone on the democratic side to stand on his principals or at least to be fearful of their political life.
Mcconell needs people in Arkansas and Nebraska and Louisiana to slam their senators and they need to rund ads in those states highlighting the taxes and medicare cuts.
“After all the braVADO and his Meet The Press interview today, I dont see how he does not filibuster without becoming a complete joke.”
What did he say in a nutshell? I missed it.
here’s my quick rundown
possible GOP pickups
ME, MA, NY, PA, TN, OH, MI, IL, WI, Iowa, OK, KS, CO, NM, WY, OR and CA (17) some are more likely then others and yes primaries & indie candidates do matter.
Possibel GOP losses
RI, VT, CT, NV, AZ and HW. (5) there are several term limited govs plus popular incumbents are retiring.
There are some absolute wild cards out there. Paterson in NY if he wants to play hardball can secure some sort of third party line in NY. He could lose the Dem. primary to Coumo and then be on the Working peoples or Liberal line. Cahill could drop out in MA plus Green party candidates can get huge votes in NM or OR in statewide races.
There is so much dragging the democrats down right now. Of course if we trade HW, VT, RI and CT for PA, OH, MI and IL that might be a fair swap.
Comment by rdelbov — November 22, 2009 @ 2:04 pm
This is completely out of Mind.
Patrick will be reelected in Massachusetts unless State Treasurer Tim Cahill drops his Indie Bid.
In New York Andrew Cuomo will reign unless Pataki wants his old job back.
In Oregon Kitzhaber will get his old Seat back.
And in Illinois the Ryan Name is still toxic so I’ll go either with Quinn or Hynes. The Names Ryan & Blagojevich will disappear FOREVER.
And Democrats won’t be winning Nevada: The new Governor of the Silver State will be Brian Sandoval.
Jason, he said two things:
1. I dont see how this bill will ever get the votes and
2. he said any kind of public option, including triggers will be filibustered as he feels P does not assure insuring one person, does not decrease costs, creates an entitlement and therefore will increase taxes and increase debt. No Republican has made a stronger case against the public option.
Certain GOP Governor Pick-Ups:
Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Wyoming
Leans GOP
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado
Leans GOP Hold
Nevada
Toss-Ups
Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida
Leans Dem
California, Minnesota
Certain Dem Pick-Ups
Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Hawaii, Arizona
Leans Indie Pick-Up
Rhode Island
Leans Dem Hold
New Mexico
Daniel that’s pretty good analysis.
The only changes I would make is I think Fla still leans R, and I am not convinced AZ is a sure DEM pick-up yet.
Also if Branstad runs I think you could put Iowa on the certain pick-up list. If not its a toss-up.
jason,
I forgot Maine is a Dem Hold like New Mexico. Sorry.
jason,
If fmr. IL AG Jim Ryan (R) is the GOP Nominee in IL the State moves to a Safe Dem Hold like New York for example.
I think noone doubts that Cuomo will win regardless of what Paterson does. BTW Cuomo has already raised 16 Mio $.
We should be happy that we might get Rudy into the Senate Race to help us Down Ballot there.
Yeah, I hope Rudi goes for the senate, that could be an unexpected pick-up.
Well I was reading Ben Nelson’s interview on ABC I think and he said the PO is “negotiable”. We need to get Nebraskans to put pressure on him. What a weasel.
jason,
rdelbov is sometimes a little bit too greedy. I’m more a realist, more balanced.
Once the Cornhusker FB season wraps up against Texas, the pressure against Nelson will come home in droves.
#
How does even Vermont tolerate a communist like Sanders in the Senate?
Comment by Dylan — November 22, 2009 @ 4:29 pm
EASY.
The majority of people in VT are communists.
Markos tweet:
Lincoln won’t be a senator in 2011.
#144. By all means, primary her out Markos. Hand us the seat.
Here we go with the mod Dem thing again. Pass the popcorn.
They will all chit on us.
Every last one of them.
Go Markos. Primary her out with one of your wingnuts. I’m sure one of your leftwing loons will do great in a general election in that bastion of liberalism called Arkansas.
For the Senate, here are the definite pickups assuming that the R’s don’t screw up an easy thing:
CT, AR, CO, NV, PA (if Specter is the Dem), NY (buh bye Gildy) and ND.
Depending upon circumstances more come into play as possibilities:
CA, DE, WI
Long shot but not entirely out of the question:
WA, NY (Chucky)
The R’s should not lose any open or incumbent seats in 10. In the House only Cao will bite the dust.
Again, this assumes the R’s actually run a well-strategized campaign. If the mess that was the Governor’s association is any indication of what could happen, we may be asking for too much.
I’ll give money to the Markos candidate in AR in the primary.
I agree with the Senate analysis, except I think DE is quite feasible with Castle and I don’t think Chucky is in play in NY. And of course to win NY and ND we need Rudy and Hoeven.
Castle’s House seat in Delaware will also probably be gone and possibly Kirk’s seat in Ill. Beyond that, Republican house seats are safe. We’ll capture threee Dem seats in Virginia alone.
“I’ll give money to the Markos candidate in AR in the primary.”
Sure but I Markos should really piss her off starting right now, no sense waiting for the primary.
I think Markos, sorry.
There are three Dem House seats gone for sure – in Idaho, Louisiana, and Md.
No hope and change on the top of the ballot and indies deserting the sinking SS Hope and change equals a bloodbath.
If Castle wins as Sen, then his seat will stay red assuming everything I typed above.
We will see. I really have very little faith in the R’s to put together a cogent campaign.
If they don’t retake the House, what comes next?
#154, Also, 5th District of VA – Perriello
Yeah, I was counting it in those three Va seats I alluded to. But yes, Va 5 a done deal.
I sm supposed to leave the R party if I do not agree with it per the resident plant.
Think about that sentence plant.
The R’s should pick up, with ease, in PA, the following:
PA 3, 4, 10, 11
They will pick up at least 1 of the following 3 and maybe more:
7, 12, 17
Again, this assumes a solid campaign. I have more faith in the House than the Senate.
Tina,
We are not registered R’s so how can we leave?
#151, what three VA Seats? Nye, Perriello and Baucher or Connolly?
Kagan is gone in WI-8, and Kind may be gone in WI-3.
Yeah md, I do not get the comment.
We are going to get Byrd’s seat too.
One way or the other.
WVA needs to run someone popular against the criminal Rockefeller.
HD,
When is Byrd scheduled to run?
You know what puts me in a better mood? I look at Olby’s ratings. He is being overtaken by Nancy Grace!
MD, I think it’s 2012 but he won’t last that long.
Byrd will be taking a dirt nap before he runs again.
Byrd’s seat is up in 2012. If he retires before then, I would think the seat would be at best for the Dems either Lean dem or toss-up. Does anyone know…if he retires in 2010, will there be a special election in 2010 or will it wait until 2012?
They have a Dem Gov, right?
There is a Dem Gov there if I’m not mistaken.
Yes, very popular Dem govenor there…he may run himself.
Is the ND Republican Govenor going to run in 2010?
Daniel calls himself balanced and reasonable, yet he responds to someone else’s post and calls me a fool for predictions I didn’t make. That pretty much tells me all I need to know about the quality of his observation and predictive ability.
Supposedly Hoeven will announce challenge to Dorgan in January.
SNL mocking Obama; the pendulum has swung. November unemployment rate will be announced December 4. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 12% by next March.
“If they don’t retake the House, what comes next?”
Well, retaking the House would be nice. But actually even a 20 seat pick-up would change the dynamics in a big way as far as what Obama could get passed after the mid-terms. Assuming all the pick-ups arent’be blue dogs, and they won’t be, it will be much harder to get 218 votes for the moonbat proposals. If the Rs had 197 seats now instead of 177 Pelosicare would not even come to a vote.
In the Senate the same holds true. 3 or 4 seats is enough to make the filibuster very feasible and far left bills will not pass. If the Rs had 44 seats right now Obamacare would look very different.
“When is Byrd scheduled to run?”
I don’t want to seem unkind, but his running days are over.
West Virginia has gone red for awhile now in Presidential races…it there anyone that can win senate seats there on the R side assuming Byrd and Rockerfeller have run their course?
After Byrd is gone, there is a good chance that his seat flips. The aforementioned Gov. Joe Manchin would be the only one we really would have to worry about. Even in a bad Dem environment, he could be tough to beat.
I’m really looking forward to November 2010 here in PA. The Dems got absolutely killed in the statewide Supreme, Superior and Appellate court races this year. Big labor and the trial lawyers spent huge money on the Supreme Court race, and their guy lost badly.
I don’t see the environment getting any better for the Dems here in less than a year. If 2010 looks anything like 09 did here, Specter is gone, along with 5 to 7 Dem House seats and the narrow Dem edge in the state House. Of course, Tom Corbett will also be elected governor. That will be a nice change after eight years of Eddie The Slimebag Rendell.
We can all celebrate the end of Arlene Spectacle in the Senate.
Half of me almost wants Spectacle to lose in the primary, since that is what he switched parties to try and avoid. On the other hand, it would be just a bit sweeter to see him have to face Toomey after all and lose in the general.
I hope Specter wins the primary. Support for him will be luke warm on all sides in the General. Sestak on the other hand will galvanize the traditional Dem constituencies in PA. I think Specter would be easier to beat.
I agree, Jason. I don’t think Sestak would prevail in the end, either, but Specter definitely has trouble with the base.
There once was this senile old codger,
From the GOP he was an artful dodger,
An escapee from the nursing home so cruel,
May he wind up drooling in his bowl of gruel,
This geriatric political tool.
There once was a sphincter named Specter,
Who has the charm of Hannibal Lector,
He says with a sneer ,
That goes ear to ear,
“You knew that I was a defector.”
MA is not a likely GOP pickup
they do not have any candidates.
they would have to find someone like romney to run, i.e. someone from outside of government.
the deals have all been made on obamacare — it has about a 90% chance of passing.
your only chance is if obama’s polls keep going down. if obama goes under 45% in gallup you have a real chance.
however, reid would not bring it up for debate if he did not have the votes.
my guess is the public option gets taken out, abortion funding gets taken out
and once that passes, it goes to reconciliation and those items get put back with a 51 vote margin.
the headlines will be, “i voted against obamacare”
and it will be true
If Manchin doesn’t run in WV, then Shelly Capito becomes the frontrunner for the seat.
Welcome back, Lisa.
“and once that passes, it goes to reconciliation and those items get put back with a 51 vote margin”
That’s not going to happen, but everything else in your post will.
Nope. Using reconciliation is too blatant. Using it to put a govt option and abortion back into a not very popular bill that is already opposed by a majority of the people anyway aint happening in spite of the fact that Reid, Pelosi, and Obama would love it if they could get away with it. They can’t. Not in this environment.
It’s virtually impossible to write the entire bill in such a way as to make it fit the budget bill criteria to use this tactic. That’s the practical problem.
Further complicating this is the fact that Reid is in a fight for his political life back in Nevada. He knows if he tries this he’s cooked. Obamacare is opposed by a majority in Nevada to begin with. Reid trying to pull an end run around the process will finish him and he knows it.
Finally, Democrats have HUGE problems with independents. Independents will oppose reconciliation in almost the same numbers as Republicans. I’ve seen several polls on that already. The last thing Democrats need is another way to piss on indies in an election year.
They may pass the bill, but it will be out a public option and abortion funding and it won’t be through reconciliation.
without a public option and abortion I meant to say
Yup without public option, abortion and insurance for illegal immigrants. Perhaps insurance for no immigrants at all.
I appreciate the fact that some folks are here as legal immigrants but should they get tax payer funded benefits?
I appreciate the fact that some folks are here as legal immigrants but should they get tax payer funded benefits?
As a former green card holder, I would say yes. I paid the same taxes as everyone else. Why shouldn’t legal immigrants reap the rewards too.
We can all celebrate the end of Arlene Spectacle in the Senate.
That would be sweeeet indeed. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
The final HC bill will have whatever Joe Lieberman wants.
#194
BTW, when the GOP goes after legal immigrant they come across as nativists.
We’ll see whether Senators get an earful when they go home for the holiday.
I said this time and time again. They will get a federal judge to put back abortion and illegal immigrants coverage. What they are passing is similar to what Romney did in MA. A state judge ordered that abortion be covered. The game is rigged.
Expect gold to spike and the dollar to plummet tomorrow. What an affront to our chinese overlords that we continue to pass these porkulus bills that simply insure the further devaluation of the dollar. Pathetic
Dylan,
The Canadian $ (called the looney) is trading at 94 cents to the US $ and I would argue that the US $ is overvalued.
We are massively and I mean massively screwed. Still, we are in the sweet spot for the market. 3 more months. Celebrate now because it is going to come to a very harsh end.
Md-you are preaching to the choir here. The dollar is the worst of the fiat piece of debt ridden chit currencies out there now. Forget about the dow–yeah, that’s screwed. If this bill passes, you will see the euro hit 1.80 and the canadian, aussie and swiss franc will all exceed parity with the greenback by late spring at the latest. Personally, I like gold and silver but really anything anti-dollar at this point. Just too much pathetic debt
Dylan,
70% of my portfolio is in 2 things:
1. Equities that invest in stocks demoninated in foreign currencies.
2. Inflation protected securities
I am staying away from gold and silver for now. Govs have made massive purchases of gold and at some point will unload. I don’t want to be the last man standing. A correction down to $650 and I will take a fresh look.
Very slowly, I have been decreasing my % in stocks. Not too much because I don’t want to sell out near the bottom.
However, at this point, I think we are getting closer to a correction than a bull market.
If you asked me. from this point, looking out 6 months will the market be 15% higher or lower from where it is today, I would have to go with lower.
I would love to buy in at 650/oz. I don’t think we will ever again see it in that zone–maybe 900/oz. I don’t really like tips because the cpi rate of inflation is total b.s. so you aren’t really getting a true protected return. I would settle for getting paid in either loonies or aussies for the foreseeable future –equities are too overvalued now
If this bill passes, how is any company going to maintain profitability without majorly raising prices?? That is going to crimp earnings and kill stock prices
We pretty much agree on everything except gold. I always worry about securities with no intrinsic value. Anything can happen and with lightning speed. Of course that has happened to stocks and bonds also.
I do like TIPS but also agree with your point on the CPI. Still, it is protection, imo, against what will be here in a few months. It is not perfect but I feel better in them that at gold at this point. JMO.
Also, why would firms hire anyone?
I have never seen anything like this. We are set up for a massive case of stagflation that will make the late 70’s look like a tea party.
OK – bed time. I have a little cold I am fighting. Need my rest!
The greenback is toast, indeed. While the Chinese cannot dump it overnight as some fear, they can do it incrementally (and have been). Once the USD index falls much further, we could see some very quick and very devastating panic selling.
I decided four years ago to forgo any unnecessary large purchases, stash away some gold and silver and eliminate debt. I’m self-employed, and with the exception of a manageable mortgage, debt-free. The fiscal mess that our country is in still scares the hell out of me, but at least I can sleep at night.
When the dollar falls, isn’t it sensible to have a lot of debt? I mean, if you buy stuff you want you get to pay for it with cheaper dollars.
BayerFan and Housesparrow-you are both right??
How about that? I could be an economist??
If you are a multi national company like Pepsi you make more money overeseas when the dollar is weak. In addition its cheaper for foreingers to buy Pepsi stock with those dollars. So I think Pepsi is a great deal for investors(domestic and foreign). There is also the plus that all of our products are cheaper to sell and we should be exporting more. That would create jobs if only Obama was not killing domestic industry with Cap/Trade fears.
On the flip side if you want to buy products from overseas it will clost more. Think oil or Christmas goodies under the tree. In addition will the world keep buying our debt at reduced prices?? If you are working fella-a common man type guy this environment can be very hard to deal with.
I think Obama has created a Robin Hood in reverse economy where the rich are stealing from the poor with Obama being the overlord. Working folks are losing their jobs and the lower middle class is being squeezed by Obama and his economy policies(think cash for clunkers). Yet if you are upper-some who is working a good job-saving money or have already saved lots of money Obama is not half bad for you (yet wait til you die or face the new tax increases).
I agree with House sparrow that the most prudent way to deal with the Obama uncertainty is save your money. Notice that the national savings rate is soaring under Obama. How you invest it is a matter of perference
Sparrow had it right by hoarding gold early. I think it is too late to do that now.
Yes, in an inflationary cycle, it is typically better to spend $ today that will be worth less than tomorrow.
However, EVERYONE needs a cash cushion of at least 6 months of expenses. You can hold USD but monetize it to another country with an ETF. I saw an equation on how to do based on your $ savings but can’t remember where I found it.
MD
Cash cushion of some sort or passive income to offset possible job loss and keep debt down.