DC: Fenty Leads Dem Primary For Mayor
Here’s something you don’t see too often, polling numbers from Washington, DC. Here are new numbers from Clarus Research Group.
MAYOR – WASHINGTON DC – DEM PRIMARY (Clarus)
Adrien Fenty (inc) 34%
Vincent Gray 24%
Kwame Brown 13%
Michael Brown 6%MAYOR – WASHINGTON DC – DEM PRIMARY (Clarus)
Vincent Gray 41%
Adrien Fenty (inc) 37%
On the Republican side, currently…oh wait…there is no numbers from the Republican side…but the DC Republican Party does have a website. This poll was done November 15-18 among 501 registered voters.
Thank you, Clarus.
I was so lost, not knowing the state of the race for DC mayor.
Ah, yes. I’m sure this one will be a barnburner.
I can’t believe they didn’t test general election matchups!
Still at 49% in Gallup for today.
There’s a Republican Party in DC? I’m guessing that must just be the RNC’s headquarters.
RNC Hq is in No VA, if I am not mistaken
soory, wrong info…they at least have an office in DC
I want the head to head number.
This could be a toss up.
LOL
Houston Mayor Bill White switches from TX-Sen race to TX-Gov race.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6736232.html
Was there ever even really going to be a Senate race in texas next year?
KBH says she is out of the Senate no matter what happens in the primary.
I tend to doubt that, Chek.
I had this race as a p/u for the Rs.
White will do well within the city of Houston. That’s the good news. Bad news, he’ll get slaughtered in the Houston suburbs (Republican) and the rest of the state except for the Valley.
His absolute best case ceiling is 44% state wide and that is if everything goes perfect for him.
I laugh and shake my head when I hear out of staters discuss how Texas is going to be competitive. Remember Dallas mayor Ron Kirk? Another “moderate” Democrat who was going to the Democratic hope.
LOL
Kirk lost by 10 if I recall correctly, Phil.
I forgot about the Berklely of Texas – Travis County. He’ll get 60% there.
So what.
Aaron the Texan Communist probably has all Texas races as Dem pickups next year, Phil.
Wes, He lost 55-43. That was the year of the Democratic “dream team”. A black in the senate race and the rich, self funded Tony Sanchez in the governor’s race. It was gonna maximize black and brown voter turnout. Well, that sidn’t work out.
Now Dems are back to trying a white guy. Libs are libs and Texans know that.
This is why they tell you not to get drunk at the office parties
Yeah, Aaron has polled all his tea sip friends and professors and it’s a White landslide.
Michael Barone describes 2002 succinctly for the Dems’ Texas “dream Team,” Phil: “Election Night was a nightmare for the Dream Team.”
I saw that last night, Chek.
It was indeed. Sanchez got rolled by 18 pts. I remember the next day he still hadn’t conceded and said he was going to fight for every last vote. He blew between 25 and 30 million of his own money.
How does someone not concede after losing by 18 points?
CT-SEN, CT-5
Good News on the House Front. State Senator Sam Caligiuri (R) switched over from the Senate Race to the CT-5 House Race.
http://samforcongress.com/
At Kos the new “solution” is two more senators from DC. That way you would need 61 to filibuster and they would have 62.
Oh, the simplicity of it….
However, I don’t think it will happen for this healthcare bill..
“How does someone not concede after losing by 18 points?”
José Cuervo?
Obama’s Nice Guy Act Gets Him Nowhere on the World Stage
19. Was this before or after she wrote the Ode to HC poem? Or during?
Well, I guess if you know you’ve just flushed 30 million of your own money down a rat hole, denial is all you have left to hang on to. Not sure he ever conceded. LOL
Since the Constitution says the district is not a state, I would think that would be an issue giving them voting rights without Statehood and of course the Constitutional Amendment.
BTW the reason White switched was Tom Sheiffer the former head of the Texas Rangers Baseball team dropped out of the Gov race, saying he was getting no traction. White, seeing no open seat race, decided to run where KBH might damage the sitting Governor in the primary. He has little hope in my opinion, but he is not much of a Democrat. The kind of Democrat that you see in Texas outside of the majority minority districts.
Surely you aren’t suggesting that Dems would let a little thing like the United States Constitution get in the way of their goal of absolute power?
Yet more proof that CrappyCare is not at all about “contolling costs” or “helping the uninsured” or any such altruistic nonsense – this about pure political power for the left and the “Dear Leader”:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODczNjBiNzJmZGJjMTY0ZGJiOWEwZDU1OTU1NTVjOGE=
“Mending Health Care [Yuval Levin]
These days, it seems like the actual arguments for the Democrats’ health-care proposals have all faded away. Remember back when OMB Director Peter Orszag was on television all the time talking about reducing costs? Have you seen him lately? Me neither. The case for Obamacare as cost reduction just won’t pass the laugh test anymore, and no one seems to make it. The case for covering everyone isn’t heard all that much either, since the Democrats’ plans won’t do that. The case for improved efficiency hasn’t really survived the machinations necessary to get a bill through the House and to get another to the Senate floor — as what remains after the wheeling and dealing is anything but efficient. It seems like the only case being made to (and by) wavering Democrats in Congress now is that the bill just has to pass. History is calling, we have never been closer to agreement, this is our chance, do it for the president, and on and on. The theory is that it’s this or nothing; some combination of the Reid and Pelosi bills has to pass or else we just leave our health-care system as it is.
But as Sen. Tom Coburn and former Deputy HHS Secretary (and regular Cornerite) Tevi Troy argue over at Forbes, this is no way to think about public policy. The notion that our only options are a massive new entitlement (complete with huge job-killing tax increases, a bloated new government program, and ridiculous budget gimmicks, but no real means to cut health-care costs) or just doing nothing simply isn’t true. There are lots of other options, and there is plenty of time to think them through and make some changes that actually improve our system. The two basic premises the Democrats are advancing at the moment — this or nothing, and now or never — are both false. As Coburn and Troy point out, there are better ways.”
It would have to be a Constitutional amendment, and 35 states would have to ratify…I could probably come up with 15 states that wouldn’t ….
Gary, he’d be the kind of Democrat that calls himself a blue dog. In other words he’s talk moderate and then go out and vote right along with Harry Reid.
A Democrat is a Democrat. They are all liberals. Just that some in red states have to lie about it.
I could come up with at least 30 states that wouldn’t ratify it.
White will not beat Perry. His appeal is limited outside Harris county, and in the general election he will not get as many votes there as he did as mayor either.
But I think he is the best candidate the Dems can muster. Too many cycles have passed with only Rs getting elected to statewide races so the Dems don’t have much of a pool of heavyweights to draw from, just rehashed losers for the most part. The congressional delegation is more interested in surviving than throwing away their seats to run as underdogs statewide.
It would have to be a Constitutional amendment, and 35 states would have to ratify…I could probably come up with 15 states that wouldn’t ….
Comment by jason —
38 states would be needed to ratify. (3/4) of the state.
“I could come up with at least 30 states that wouldn’t ratify it.”
I can vouch for Texas. The idea would be as popular here as a rattler at a BBQ.
“38 states would be needed to ratify. (3/4) of the state.”
You are correct….38….
Texas will never be a democratic stronghold. Too much of its economy is dependent on producers and not rent-seekers. The success of tort reform means that the trial lawyer lobby is relatively weak compared to the liberal states. Right-to-work laws throughout the south means that the ports and industry will never be unionized as workers know they can lose their jobs to their neighbors quite easily. And perhaps most importantly, Texas is a lot of flat space each equally as comfortable as the next due to air conditioning and relatively easy commutes. There will always be a suburb or exurb in Texas for the successful to escape from the onerous rent-seeking, tax-raising policies of failures who want to reward themselves through politics.
The democrats greatest hope is that the mexican immigration to Texas will turn the state blue. Unfortunately, Texas mexican immigrants are not Caliornia immigrants. While Pete Wilson was alienating them with proposition 87 (or was it 187) in the 90’s, Dubya was welcoming them into his winning coalition. The low-cost, low-spending state more easily integrates immigrants who have no government dole to get them addicted to Democratic pork.
Texas will always be to the right as far as the nation is concerned.
BBQ rattler ain’t bad.
Didn’t stop them from trying earlier this year, didn’t happen though.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_of_Columbia_voting_rights (yeah I know it’s wiki)
“BBQ rattler ain’t bad.”
If there ain’t no steak or chili maybe, but that never happened.
More idiocy from democrats in DC. There is talk of a transaction tax .25% on transactions over 100K. So if some bigwig sold 2000 shars of Clorox stock, around $60, that would need to a tax of $300.
This transaction tax would either help reduce the deficit(what a joke) or fund a jobs bill.
This idea is so stupid on so many levels.
1. Its not a tax on wall street its a tax on people or funds that own stock. So say that mutual fund that has all those 401K accounts. Its not wall street but the fund holders who will pay this tax.
2. This tax will discourage transactions which will reduce brokerage income reduce the income of brokers and that’s just another drag on the economy. I might add that capital gains comes after capital transactions for we may see less capital gain income if this tax is implemented.
3. Finally let’s send more wall street business to Canada or overseas. Many stocks can be traded overseas and they may avoid this tax and send brokerage jobs to London ro Toronto.
Mercy does anyone think in DC??
There is a simple and fair way to give the DC population full voting rights. First repeal the XXIII amendment (Democrats lose 3 EV). Then retrocede the district (excpet the National MAll and adjacent Federal buildings) to MD (Arlington and Alexandria were retroceded to VA in the 1840’s). MD gets one more Congressional district (and one more Democrstic EV), DC residents get to vote for MD Senators.
Not a surprise, Romney is most popular among group of Republicans that think the Republican party is too conservative.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/romney-conundrum.html
“Texas will always be to the right as far as the nation is concerned.”
That’s the kind of definitive statement I can live with.
47 – Yup.
“DC residents get to vote for MD Senators.”
Be careful…such a thought might get you banned by Dave.
Knighthawk
our much attacked GOP leadership in the senate attached an amendment to the DC voter rights bill. This amendment would undo all the gun laws that DC has enacted. So the DC voting bill is tied in a gun control issue.
with 40 votes there is only so much McConnell can do
“Not a surprise, Romney is most popular among group of Republicans that think the Republican party is too conservative.”
I didn’t get to vote so it’s not fair.
“Mercy does anyone think in DC??”
I hope that’s a rhetorical question….
52 – huh?
I’m well aware since that is noted in the link I sent (which I read weeks ago). I did not attack anyone on the issue, I provided a link that provided information about the legislation and the topic being discussed.
Nevada Governor(Nevada News Bureau)
Sandoval(R) 35%
Goodman(I) 28%
Reid(D) 21%
http://www.nevadanewsbureau.com/2009/11/23/poll-shows-sandoval-benefiting-in-three-way-race-for-governor/
Knighthawk
Oh sorry. I did not imply that you had attacked our GOP senate leaders. Far from it. I was providing you with the info as to why this bill has had advanced.
I mixed in a defense of McConnell and others on the GOP side with that explanation to you.
In doing so I may not confused some of our posters here. I was not poking you.
So the DC voting rights bill has been held up by the GOP leaders.
#48 How small is that group? 25% of the party
56 – I think maybe I just read that wrong, we are on the same page.
The suspense is just about over:
Obama to announce Afghanistan decision on prime time Dec 1
Finally!!
But why wait? Does he not want people thinking about it over the holiday or does he just want everyone’s eyes on him again?
Wait I’m getting a communication from my tin hat… it reads:
Conspiracy to knock V off tv that night.
I love this line…”The decision on Afghanistan is shaping up as one of the most momentous of Obama’s presidency”. LOL Can they hype up this President any more than they already have?
You can get clues from his comments about what he is going to do.
a. Timetable. Were going to do this by this date and then were out. Thats worked out well for him so far hasnt it.
b. Were going to increase troop levels by 20-30,000 (hell never give the full amount, it would mean giving in to the military) BUT a lot of those troops have to come from other NATO nations. The second part, after the BUT, will be left out of most news accounts. Also left out will be the fact that most NATO countries wont send any more troops, theyve already said that. So in the end McChrystal will at at best, 10k troops more, which will do nada.
c. were going to send drones into Pakistan. BFD
d. what is all means is he has full intentions to lose the war, then blame Bush’s execution of it during his term as the reason.
So predictable.
“Also left out will be the fact that most NATO countries wont send any more troops, theyve already said that.”
—
Little reported but while in Japan he lost the Japs, they are pulling out of helping us via naval refueling missions in the Afghan area of operations.
RAS
“Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans Post Seven-Point Lead on Generic Ballot”
…Voters not affiliated with either party continue to heavily favor Republicans, 44% to 20%.
But PPP (D) said it was plus 8 for the Ds, yesterday, right?
Okay math guys follow this logic
1. McCain won the popular vote in 240 or so congressional districts in 2004. I say or so because everytime I count I get a different number(maybe I should work in the CBO)
2. I believe the generic numbers in 2008 was +5D?
The democrats tend to be concentrated in urban districts so that’s why they won only 200 or districts in the popular vote. So roughly 40 to 50 democrats are in McCain districts but out performed Obama and won election. Of course likewise there are some Obama Republicans.
3. If there really is a 10-12 % shift in party perferences that’s a massive move as GOP is more broadly based and less concentrated in urban areas. This is opening lots more seats and the GOP target range needs to greatly expand. Perhaps up to 280 seats can be viewed as targets. Of course some incumbents are not going to be beat.
Wow
Over the weekend I spoke to a financial guru I know and asked him if he was telling his people to buy or sell. Without hesitation he said BUY. I responded, really? With the potential for Obamacare passing? And he said that the DJIA will hit 11,000 before the end of the year.
Its rare for him to make those kind of statements, as usually he is very cautious. I guess I will know in 1 month if he knows what he is talking about.
Rdel:
IIRC, Dems had a 8.9% advantage in congressional races in 2008.
Rdel
I am not sure it was 5%, I think party ID at one point got down to about 5.5% with RAS but I think even that went up by election time. The generic number was a little bit higher, maybe as high as sam says, I just dont remember.
The swing of 15%, if that is what happens ( it could be more due to offyears tending to be more Republican than Presidential years ) will be huge. Its why I have been saying Tsunami for months now. Otherwise blue districts in blue states wash out in the backrush. People are going to be amazed.
Rdel:
Here are some final generic polls for the 2008 elections:
KOS 49-40
NBC 48-36
Hotline 44-39
USAT/Gallup 53-41
CNN 54-45
Battleground 45-41
CBS 48-36
AP 43-37
Anywhere from +12 to +5. Could be a +19 to +12 swing, if election were held today. I would argue even if it was +5 last time, that the +7 is light due to several factors. Its a +15 tsunami, I can feel that weather coming in my bones!