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MA: Patrick Below 30% In PollsWe have yet another poll for the gubernatorial race in Massachusetts that show similar results as yesterday’s UNH poll, but shows Deval Patrick even lower. Here are the new numbers from Public Policy Polling. GOVERNOR – MASSACHUSETTS (PPP) This poll was done January 7-9 among 744 likely voters.
39 Responses to “MA: Patrick Below 30% In Polls” |
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Hello folks, where have you been?
DeVal can’t win with numbers like these. Corzine couldn’t do it. What makes Patrick think he can?
toooooooooooooooo
Brandon, PPP’s using likely voters in this poll. What gives?
Wes,
Lots of rumblings of Patrick heading back to the private sector on his own volition – before the voters do that to him anyway on election day.
#4. It was the same sample as their Senate special.
Ah, I see.
Looks like an interesting three way tossup there at the moment.
The key to GOP victory will be for the GOP nominee (likely Baker) to make whatever number of Republicans exist in the state like Cahill less and to make Democrats like Cahill more.
I’d say that’s more likely than not.
Ploffe, et al are running Patrick’s campaign. I think it’s unlikely he drops out.
Plus, Harry Reid says he approves of his dialect.
Perhaps if Patrick drops out, they can substitute Martha Coakley since she won’t be a senator anytime soon (here’s hoping!). Or maybe Bill Galvin; he’ll be realy popular trying to hold up the certification of a senator-elect simply to ensure the passage of health care.
Bottom line, with Cahill in as an Indy and a Green candidate who earned 18% ini her last statewide run a few years ago, Baker will not need a hwole lot to prevail. This one should be a barnburner, but I think the GOP can and will pull it out in this environment.
Marc Ambinder:
“FWIW, internal Democratic tracking in MA last week had Coakley up 15. Today, she’s up by five.”
http://twitter.com/marcambinder/status/7683544568
Rasmussen has a new poll for the MA Senate race in less than 20 minutes, btw.
Well, Corey, Cahill is a Dem officeholder in MA. He’s the State Treasurer–which interesting since MA bills itself as a commonwealth. Shouldn’t he then be the Commonwealth Treasurer? Anyway, his sister worked on Kerry’s campaign, and he’s well known as a Dem. It would seem to me he’s likely to start drawing votes away from the Dems as time goes on.
A gubernatorial and a senatorial victory in MA in one year, George? The dems would be annihilated if such a thing happened. That said, I’m still not sold on a GOP victory in the Senate race.
Cahill, after years and years of being a democrat, has discovered that Patrick has been a mess for Mass.
I think he fades and I am interested in the Green-socialist GOV candidate
That would be two people splitting Patrick’s vote, Rdel. On the subject of Governors, does anyone know if the GOP will take a realistic shot at taking out Dave’s failed governor, O’Malley, this year?
Hellbelly, the Giants are tired for third with three Superbowl rings. That’s something to be happy about.
Comment by Wes — January 12, 2010 @ 3:04 pm
Wes, as a professional Statistician, I must inform you that you are violating the statistical rule of “tied ranks”. The Giants are tied for 4th, not 3rd, in Super Bowl rings:
Rank Team(s)
1st Steelers(6)
2nd/3rd Cowboys(5), 49ers(5)
4th-8th Giants(3), Raiders(3), Patriots(3),
Redskins(3), Packers(3)
etc.
The Giants are tied for 4th because there are 3 teams with more.
Bysiewicz drops run for CT-GOV.
http://www.registercitizen.com/articles/2010/01/12/news/doc4b4ce6f133ad6537623424.txt
That increases the chances of a GOP retention, Brandon.
DaveW,
Is there going to be a prediction thread for the MA Senate race? Saturday would be a good time to put one up and close the contest at 0700 on the 19th.
I won’t be making any predictions till the 19th, Marv. What about you?
Wes,
No fair waiting until the election, unless you make your pick before the polls open. I’ll hold my pick until Monday evening.
I second that. There are to many moving parts.
Wes,
My wife gave me a Kindle for Christmas. I love it!
I am stunned by Susan B’s move. Mercy she seemed to the leader in primary and GE.
I might add that Susan B would be the perfect balance with Blumenthal-He is old/grumpy/jewish and Susan B. is young-perky-Catholic.
I still believe in balancing tickets.
Of course the wags are already saying Susand B. for US senate in 2012
Is there going to be a prediction thread for the MA Senate race? Saturday would be a good time to put one up and close the contest at 0700 on the 19th.
Comment by Marv
Prediction:~~Massive uprooting of gravestones occuring, as the dead vote once again.
The new Ras poll has Coakley up 2, 49-47.
http://washingtonindependent.com/73805/rasmussen-coakley-by-two-points-in-massachusetts
Wes,
Not being cocky on MA; just stickiing with positive energy. I used to pooh-pooh that Hippie nonsense, but my wife told me to start thinking positively about things instead of being pessimistic all the time, and damn it, if it hasn’t worked for me on every level in my life. So, I am trying to extend some of that magic mojo towards the man of the hour, Scott Brown.
Nice, Brandon! Her 50 point ceiling has dropped now too.
That is a huge move. Didn’t he just have Coakley at +9?
Bingo! Two points and closing hard. She’ll bite viciously this week, but he now has resources to fight back (no thanks to the cheapskates at the NRSC).
Here’s the link to the internals:
http://media2.myfoxboston.com/html/2010-senate-seat-rasmussen-reports-fox25.html
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/election_2010_massachusetts_special_senate_election
How many sampled Brandon? ~600?
New thread
Thanks!
Based on the internals, and using a 2008 voter party turnout,
Brown 51%
Coakley 44%
Looks like there aren’t really much more votes to get…. turn out, turn out, turn out.