MA: Brown Opens Up Double-Digit Lead

I just got home and saw we have a new poll for the US Senate race in Massachusetts showing Republican Scott Brown opening up a double digit lead over Democrat Martha Coakley. This poll comes from the Merriman River Group.

Scott Brown (R) 51%
Martha Coakley (D) 41%

This poll was done January 15th among 565 likely voters. Thanks to Brandon in the comments for finding this one. I don;t know anything about this polling group, but here is their website if you want to peruse….

Public Policy Polling says they will release their new poll around 10:30 or 11pm tonight while Pajamas media will be releasing a new poll at 3am. Charlie Cook is now claiming Scott Brown is favored to win.

Posted by Dave at 3:31 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (399)

399 Responses to “MA: Brown Opens Up Double-Digit Lead”

  1. rdelbov says:

    Brandon you are the tops you are the Mona Lisa

  2. Dylan says:

    a POLITICAL 8.0 EARTHQUAKE is coming.

  3. Brandon says:

    I’ve never heard of this MRG before this poll FWIW.

  4. MD says:

    As a follow up to the last thread, I think AA turnout will be 3 to 4% of the overall population of voters. I have been very quiet on the threads because I have been digging in on this. I think a prediction will be in order later 2nght or tomorrow.

    Let’s just say I am starting to feel very positive. The 3rd party will not be a factor and, after the debacle of NY 23, that concerned me.

  5. MD says:

    A Noreaster is approaching Mass that will be felt in DC, NV and the bay area.

    I am actually getting the chills!

  6. KnightHawk says:

    Wonder if these are Brown’s internal pollsters? btw what’s the word on what they see if they have said anything at all (which it would be wise that they don’t).

  7. MD says:

    Calling Gary Maxwell,

    How is “God’s team” doing today?

  8. ameister says:

    Intrade down to 50 . been moving towars Croakley
    al day

  9. Jan says:

    Here is an interesting graph analysis of Brown versus Coakley:

    H/T Justrand of BJG

  10. rdelbov says:

    The heaviest snow apparently will be the very liberal and democratic western part of MA-berkshire area. 5 inches of global warming might discourage them.

    I have a few thoughts on this poll in a bit but now for something competely different.


    I think you and others have the legal points right. I think MA has poor language in its legal wording.

    That being said the senate sets its rules and is the ultimate determinating force in its membership. Now some of you real legal eagles got get info on Adam Clayton Powell from 1969 but that was a house case. wiki it as I recall its a fascinating legal story.

    Yet Kirk is a legal US senator would Patrick or SOS Galvin decertify in MA? if they did maybe the US senate might but if the Gov and SOS back in MA say Kirk is their guy then 59 democrats will not boot him out. Do you think Reid & Dodd will boot him out?

    Now Lieberman or Nelson or Lincoln balking on HC until Brown is seated is another matter. That could happen.

  11. MD says:


    Intrade is meaningless garbage and has always been.

  12. Jan says:

    Anyone know what time Obama is making his appearance in MA?

  13. Brandon says:

    Yes, I know these probably can’t be trusted, but FWIW, Marc Ambinder says the Coakley internal track shows a “dead heat”.

  14. MD says:

    I thought he already did Jan.

  15. MD says:


    It is like following a script. First , “we are down a couple”, then “we’re surging” and finally tomorrow it will be, “we have pulled ahead but need every vote”. Don’t believe any of the nonsense. All garbage.

  16. tgcaGNAT says:

    Well, I hope the momentum holds for Brown. I am not superstitious but I don’t want to jinx it just in case so I will hold my predictions until Wednesday morning.

  17. KnightHawk says:

    Obama thingy is going on now.

  18. tgcaGNAT says:

    Will the Obama appearance be televised? I don’t want to miss the opportunity to see our president supporting our electoral process as he so unbiasedly advocates the importance of voting and making a difference. But I do have to take out the garbage and scrub the toilet so I just might have to miss it. Darn!

  19. Mark Cali says:

    Anyone watching the Coakley rally on Fox? She is horrible! She comes off so scummy and the audience looks so bored.

  20. Mark Cali says:

    TGCA – Tune in to Fox. 🙂

  21. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #19 I have a very low tolerance for pain, I cant watch that crap…..

    You know what gonna be said:

    – Its all Bush fault
    – Socialist HC for Teddy
    – Its all the R fault
    – Its all the “greedy banks” fault – more taxes for them
    – I need Martha to rubber stamp the socialist agenda
    – Oh did I mention, its Bushes fault
    – Brown is an ogre from hell – he will kill you, you kids, and your grandparents if you elect him….

    Blah, blah, blah……Socialism is great!

    Sigh, quite predicatable…..I guess the “enthusiams” in the Obama crowd depends on how much slush the SEIU is putting on the street to the goons….

  22. Hellbelly says:

    I just went up and down the dial here in Massachusetts. ABC showing infomerical; NBC showing skiboarding; Fox showing Cowboys/Vikings; CBS showing Jets/Charge pregame; CNN showing Haiti.

    Only place to see this “rally” is on Fox and my hunch is that Coakley supporters aren’t watching there.

  23. Hellbelly says:

    This rally comes in the category of “a tree falling in the forest making no noise.”

  24. Yolanda says:

    I think it’s generally a good rule to subtract a few points from any campaign’s “leaked” internals (unless we know that, honest to goodness, they were leaked against the wishes of the campaign).

    And no campaign would ever say they’re behind when they’re not. People don’t vote for losers; it wouldn’t fire up the base.

  25. Hellbelly says:

    …my bad….CNN just switched to Obama mid-speech….no coverage,however, of Coakley’s stemwinder (sarc implied!).

  26. rdelbov says:

    Massive crowd for Brown in the liberal bastion of Worchester-standing room only-don’t believe the democratic twitter unless that makes you go door to door for Brown.

    I think this poll has the right look and its not just because it has Brown ahead by 10 points. Its just extends what would be obvious in the suffolk poll if turnout leans towards the conservative side of the spectrum.

    I read 100’s of posts on Brown’s momentum and getting out to vote for him. On the liberal side its all Kennedy’s seat-HC’s doom, birther, taeabagger and vote for Coakley because you must.

    No one seems all that excited about Martha C. on the democrat side.

  27. Wes says:

    If coakley’s still running against Bush, then she seriously needs to update her playbook. The man’s no longer President and hasn’t been for a year. He’s down in Haiti now trying to coordiate disaster relief. I’m sorry but despite his record as President, Bush is not a trump card for the dems in electoral politics anymore.

  28. Yolanda says:


    What about the Daily Pravda Live, I mean, MSNBC?

  29. Wes says:

    Those really seem like major motivations to get out and vote for Coakley to me, Rdel. I don’t think I’ve ever lied in my life as much as I did with that previous sentence.

  30. Mark Cali says:

    WEC, you just about nailed all the talking points. LMAO!

  31. Hellbelly says:


    You’re right (I had to look up it channel number). Apparently they’ve broken away from their regularly scheduled “Killing the Konstitution” show to bring us Obama.

  32. Wes says:

    If Brown wins Tuesday, then the narrative needs to be this: Only Obama could get a Republican elected in Massachusetts. It will be the truest statement about this race I can think of.

  33. ameister says:

    Intrade back up to 54.7 during Obamas speech

  34. Mark Cali says:

    Obama just got heckled for a full minute! Wow!

  35. Phil says:

    Folks, Obama is making an appearance in Mass because he has to. Losing this race with him not at least going there would upset his lefty base. I don’t think Rham Emanuel has any expectations that his appearing at a rally is going to actually win this thing.

    As far as them playing games to pass the healthcare bill BEFORE Brown is seated, it would be a PR nightmate for them. I know..I know…the whole thing has been a PR disaster – the deals, the midnight votes, the buying off different big interests – it’s never stopped them before.

    Well, trying something to end run the voters here would be so out and out blatant on top of everything else they’ve done that it would just be a bridge too far.

  36. Yolanda says:

    If Brown does win, the msm meme will be the following debate:

    “Analysis: Tea Party Victory in MA–Anti-Obama Racism, Anti-Coakley Sexism, or Both?”

  37. Wes says:

    I can’t watch, Mark. The President’s so smarmy and condescending when he speaks I can’t bear to watch anything he says for more than a few minutes.

  38. Mark Cali says:

    But Wes, Obama’s busting out his “Negro” dialect.

  39. Wes says:

    Well, the GOP needs to counter with legitimate analysis of what’s going on, Yolanda. I notice the erstwhile Doom and Gloom Phil is a bit more sanguine about this race than he was a year ago about the GOP’s ever winning the White House again. That could be a good sign.

  40. Wes says:

    He can have that while he’s fetching coffee for Coakley and reid, Mark. I still refuse to watch.

  41. tgcaGNAT says:


    The housing market is impacting everyone these days.

  42. KnightHawk says:

    34 – Can’t wait for the video of that later.

  43. Mark Cali says:

    Wes, you’re not missing much now. It’s a bunch of anecdotal drivel. ” “

  44. Mark Cali says:

    Insert sob story, then Insert justification to suppress your liberties/tax you more

  45. Phil says:

    Wes, you’re doing better than I am. I can’t stand even looking at him for one second. Besides, Obama is going through the motions in my estimation.

    Like I said, look at which campaign is pulling out all the desperation tactics. That tells you what the numbers are really saying.

  46. Yolanda says:


    I agree with you completely. Obama was facing a no-win situation here.

    Scenario A: Stay in DC, Coakley Loses.
    Scenario B: Stay in DC, Coakley Wins.
    Scenario C: Go to MA, Coakley Loses.
    Scenario D: Go to MA, Coakley Wins.

    For Obama, it’s D > B > A > C

    Sure, C is his worst-case scenario, but A is SO much worse than B–I mean, orders of magnitude worse–that if he thought there were any chance his going would result in D, he had to take it.

    Keep in mind that Obama took some flak in November for NOT campaigning for Thompson in NYC, given how close that race turned out to be.

  47. Mark Cali says:

    KH – Barack looked pretty damn uncomfortable towards the end and when he started speaking again, the audience behind him was looking away from him. lol Classic.

  48. tgcaGNAT says:

    Oh My! This is an original argument why MA needs to elect a Dem senator.

    Boston Mayor: Coakley Foes Want Obama to Fail

  49. Wes says:

    All right, here’s a question no one’s asked before: assuming Brown wins, how long does everyone think it will take the networks to call the race for him? It took 50 minutes for Fox to be the first to call the VA race for McDonnell despite McDonnell’s solid lead out of the gates with the others quickly following like a pack of rabid hyenas. It took Fox about 2 hours to call the NJ race with the others following within the hour. Thus, if Brown does beat coakley, what’s your projection on the call time? I project Fox will be first at roughly 2 1/2 hours while Ted Turner’s Former Playground, the Obama Peacock Network, the Weird Eye Network, and the Good-Lord-We-Seriously-Need-David Brinkley-to-Come-Back-to-Life Network will hold off until they have absolutely no choice.

  50. KnightHawk says:

    Watch the video after the picture store in this post.

  51. Bitterlaw says:

    The Cowboys were crushed today. I wondered where that fake Romo came from the last 2 weeks. Real Romo obviously escaped and took the field today.

  52. wheelz says:

    What is going on in Massachuetts???
    This is the worst campaign speech I have ever
    heard… it seems like they know its just
    for show.

  53. Tommy_Boy says:

    We need a predictions thread up…I’m ready to nail this one, hahahaha.

  54. Wes says:

    What was the score, Bitter?

  55. Bitterlaw says:

    The Brown race will be called in July when the last of 19 Court challenges ends when the Mass. Supreme Court says, “Screw it. We’re going to Cape Cod.”

  56. Wes says:

    Are you sure you can get this one right, Tommy?

  57. tgcaGNAT says:


    Stop being so cynical. I have seen no evidence *hack! hack! hack!…TGCA coughs up furball* that the MSM has provided biased coverage in this election. Please provide one example! Just one!

  58. Bitterlaw says:

    34-3. This sad Eagles’ fan began to smile for the first time in a week.

  59. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #38 Ah yes, my favorate of the dozens of Obama personas – the fake Jive Preacher lol

    Yeah, the child of priviledge from rich grandparents, private school in HI, and Harvard bustin’ it out like he was a hommie for Jesus from the hood lol

    How about a bit of the phoney “fake intellectual” in their too for the Harvard crowd….

    Yeah, the talking points are all too predicitable – hate, populist emotion, fear, picking the “target” then demonizing them……anything but the issues and the facts….

  60. Tommy_Boy says:


    heh heh…I think I’m going to nail this one.

  61. Wes says:

    Well, Bitter, that makes me 2 for 3 so far. For some reason, I apparently developed a temporary case of brain damage and had the Ravens beat the Colts. At least I can do no bette rthan 50-50 on my predictions for the week though.

  62. KnightHawk says:

    Wes depends on how close it is once say 1/2 the vote is in.

  63. Wes says:

    If it’s any consolation, Tommy, I was an hour and a half off on my prediction for how long it would be before Christie ousted Corzine.

  64. Wes says:

    Knight, McDonnell never dropped below 62% of the vote in the VA returns till 90% of the vote was in in November, but Fox took a full 50 minutes to make the call. That seriously should have been called as soon as polls closed.

  65. KnightHawk says:

    What time do the polls close in MA, 7pm or 8pm?

  66. Frank says:


    Off topic.

    Any thoughts about the last TD pass by Favre against the Vikings today?

    My opinion to follow shortly.


  67. Wes says:

    In #61, I should have said no WORSE than 50-50 on my predictions for this weekend. Aye aye aye. How the hell did I make that kind of error?

  68. Gary Maxwell says:

    Why would an Eagles fan of all people be throwing around disparaging remarks about quarterback play? Short term memory loss from not one beat down but two? Maybe a concussion from the beat downs?

    Congrats to Bret Favre, he did not play like a 40 year old. Seems like a week off is very significant. 3 out of 4 with one left to play go to the team with a bye.

  69. Wes says:

    Polls close at 8 Tuesday, Knight.

  70. KnightHawk says:

    Not talking about VA, I was thinking NJ. Frankly I would prefer the networks take longer to call all races where there is any doubt.

  71. BPL in Scottsdale says:

    Networks will call it only once the margin is outside the MOF (Margin of Fraud).

  72. Wes says:

    Any time, Knight.

  73. Wes says:

    I agree, Knight. If brown’s up by 100,000 though with half the vote counted and most of the Coakley-friendly precincts in, i think they should just go ahead and call the damn thing, don’t you? That of course assumes Brown wins.

  74. Tommy_Boy says:


    My guess is that it’ll be called by the time Palin is talking to Greta on Tuesday evening about the election.

  75. Wes says:

    That’s about what I predicted, Tommy–roughly 10:30.

  76. Marv says:

    Hi guys.

  77. Wes says:

    Hola, Big Marv. How go things?

  78. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    Statist never change – ever:

    “Illinois Gov. Quinn still wants tax increase

    Jan 15, 2:28 PM (ET)

    CHICAGO (AP) – Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn says he’s committed to raising the state income tax to come up with more money, even though he never used the phrase “tax increase” during his recent State of the State speech.

    Quinn said Friday his proposal to raise the tax rate 50 percent is the best plan. He wants to lessen the impact on poor and working families by increasing the personal exemption.”

  79. Marv says:

    Good, Wes. I’m 1 and 2 so far in teams I rooted for.

  80. pitchaboy says:

    Sorry Gary, come playoff time the only thing worse than an Eagles loss for the Eagles fans is a Cowboys victory. Yes, Eagles fans rejoice in the pain of Cowboys’ fans.
    As for predictions, I have predicted this one more than aweek ago. Dont listen to CCroakley’s internals; those are her internal organs crying out for. She is cooked.

  81. Marv says:

    Hard drive crash and I’m operating with a backup computer. All of my political sites are gone so I need to rely on timely info here!!!!

  82. kris says:

    BPL in Scottsdale — Polls, for US, will close at dinnertime. And what a meal it will be!

    K in Carefree.

  83. KnightHawk says:

    74. Maybe but I just get annoyed when they call races early in all but the most obvious cases, especially in presidential races. Actually in presidential years I almost wish they could delay reporting (not counting) till 10pm.

  84. Wes says:

    Everything seems to be trending toward brown. I still refuse to make a prediction before tomorrow afternoon though.

  85. Gary Maxwell says:

    Yeah but Eagles fans throw snowballs at Santa Claus, so I guess I would consider the source. But Quarterback play is not something I would bring up as an Eagles fan. Just sayin…

  86. MD says:

    This has been 2 great threads in a row!


    Just busting your chops. You brought up the God’s team thing last week after the boys put the beat down on the birds. I just had to say something. What was up with Romo today?

    Anyway, I will make a prediction soon and I am feeling very, very good about the race!

  87. Wes says:

    Has Michael Barone said what he feels about this race yet?

  88. MD says:

    Let’s see – I congratulated GM last week. Notice how the Cowboy’s fan reacts today? BTW – the Santa was in 1968 and he was drunk!

  89. Wes says:

    Anyway, I’m off for now. Catch you all later.

  90. KnightHawk says:

    “Quinn said Friday his proposal to raise the tax rate 50 percent is the best plan.”

    What raise it to 50% or raise all rates 50%? That’s his ‘best’ plan? Have they heard of cutting services out there in IL?

  91. Gary Maxwell says:

    Report I am getting is the Coakley and Obama did not even fill the small auditorium on NE Univ campus. Meanwhile Brown had a larger crowd in a larger auditorium and had to turn people away. Folks comparing the enthusiasm to JFK.

    Cant spit shine a turd into anything other than a turd. Results will be amazingly lopsided I believe.

  92. KnightHawk says:

    94 – See the video of carl cameron saying the same thing.

  93. Tim says:

    Did you see this? Do you know about this guy?

    Unlike the Dems, the GOP will barbecue a guy, like this.

  94. MD says:


    Notice the talking point? Not Obama’s fault. Without him Coakley would be blown out. He is personally saving the D party in Massachusetts from turning into Alabama.

  95. Gary Maxwell says:

    MD you gloated above ( see # 7 ) and then Bitterlaw made a nasty comment about Romo. When you are sitting on the sidelines, I think maybe you dont have a dog in the fight. And when your own quarterback stunk the place out, two weeks in a row you got nothing but sourgrapes. I will be cheering for the old guy next week, and it will be another great game.

  96. pitchaboy says:


  97. KnightHawk says:

    Tim I had not seen that, I don’t know what to make of it, off hand I would assume some personal relationship being behind it but something tells me that’s not the case. 😉

  98. pitchaboy says:

    The Cowboys are a greater organization than the Eagles and they have the rings to show for it.But, please dont tell me Romo is betteen Mcnbb. Mcnabb maybe unreliable and my stink, he has done far more than Romo. Having said that, I want him and fat boy Reid to go.

  99. addisonst says:

    Did Brown’s rally outdraw the One’s? The One didn’t even fill up the hall.

  100. MD says:

    Well, Andy Reid certainly helped Dallas. Dejean Jackson is too small to get off of press coverage on the outside.

    How does a coach counter that? You put the receiver in the slot or in motion. What did Reid do? He had Jackson on the outside on every play.

    McNabb and the lines (both sides) stunk. I am ready to move on from McNabb and Reid. They just signed Reid to a 3 year extension which means he will be here another 4 years.

  101. Gary Maxwell says:

    Not quite medicare, but he is the oldest QB ever to win a playoff game I think. You could not tell it on my monitor.

    Go Favre. Make it another one for the record books.

  102. KnightHawk says:

    Gotta run for a bit, be back online after I run out for some food.

  103. pitchaboy says:

    You dont need Barone or Cook to tell you what you heart and brain already knows.

  104. MD says:


    Yes, they are saying that Brown had to turn away a thousand people and had 3 thousand inside. Coke’s with “the one” in tow, had approx 2000 to 2500 with a capacity of 3000.

  105. Jan says:


    My sympathies for your Hard drive problems. Mine crashed over Christmas, so I know the frustrations.

  106. MD says:

    The 4 TD Favre showed up today. You never know with him. The 4 INT Favre may show up next week.

  107. phoenixrisen says:

    #100 — Kind of reminds me of how voters fled away from McCain in the last few days. I think this one is over but won’t pop the cork until I hear the race called for Brown. The comments made by that blogger were in simple disbelief. Brown win’s seat held be the Kennedy’s? WOW!!!

  108. Jan says:

    Loved the video that KH posted from instapundit juxtapositioning the Coakley/Obama rally with the
    Brown one. What a difference!

  109. Yolanda says:

    Who runs Election Projection? Whoever it is isn’t a starry-eyed GOP-supporter (has the Dems holding AR, IL, and PA in November, for example, whereas I’d rate those as GOP pickups right now).

  110. jones says:

    I saw a bit of The Liar’s rally. What is he going to say to change minds?

    “A vote for Chokely means taxes and socialism. Now get out there!”

    Good luck with that. I know this is Massachusettes, but can they even be that dumb?

    I hope not.

  111. Phil says:

    Election Projection currently has Republicans only gaining 13 House seats so no, it definitely isn’t a starry-eyed GOP-supporter.

  112. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    If the Chargers win it would be the first time in a while that both NFC and AFC had conference championship games both as 1-2 seed matchups FWIW….

    Farve is the man….he can play in the NFL until he is 90 as long as that cannon of an arm keeps going…..its still the best their is…even at 40

  113. jones says:

    Why are truck drivers disqualified from office? Teamsters, show some ball.

  114. jones says:


    Of the 5 teams left, only 2 have won Super Bowls. I find that interesting.

  115. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #111 I am a disbeleive until it happens too…..there are so so many advantages for a D in MA…..I cant beleive they can actually piss them all away and lose….its almost if the D would have to commit vote fraud AGAINST Croakley for her to lose lol

    Plus as soon a I start getting happy about something then the karma turns……I am just happy their is a chance…..anything more then that is politcal premature ejaculation…..its unhealthy and will cause you to go blind lol

  116. rdelbov says:

    Go Brown go. Great rally in Worchester

  117. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    for you rallly watchers, this site has them both – you be the da judge on what’s happening NOW lol:

  118. phoenixrisen says:

    Election Projection is a lib poll watcher. I remember monitoring their stuff when I used to browse over at Polipundit after President Bush was elected.

  119. Phil says:

    So Obama’s big applause line today?


    Mr President, you are sooooo inspiring.

  120. Gary Maxwell says:

    Its what passes for wittiness in prog land.

  121. jones says:

    Union Guys? What do you think of The Liar’s trucker bashing?

    One honest lib?

  122. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #123 Yeah but elitest skunks like Obama and Croakley wouldnt be caught dead driving or riding in one – utter fakes….lol

    Anybody can jack up taxes, impose mindless socialist programs, and expand government – and that passes for “enlighted” with the Obama crowd….

  123. Mark Cali says:

    122 – That’s electoral-vote that is liberal. Election-projection is Team GOP. read their blog.

  124. Yolanda says:


    Anybody can buy a truck? Not with the economy you’ve created, Mr. President.

  125. Waingro says:

    #121, that’s fantastic.

    Let me tell you: Worcester is as liberal as it gets in Mass. Those rally images and stories are incredible.

  126. Jan says:

    From the Campaign Corner, a clip saying WH insiders “fear” Coakley will lose.

  127. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #128 ya, not even a used beater with 200K miles like Brown ownes lol

    Of course, to the statist mindset all property is “collective” anyways so nobody should own a truck!

    Plus they are “gas guzzlers” too – killin off the polar ice cap and that crap lol

    I am surprised that Obama did critize Brown for not trading in his truck for a French “smart car” under da $$$ for da clunkas program…

  128. MD says:


    They may be team GOP but I question their abilities. Where is PA 3? How can PA 11 be a mod Dem hold when Kanjorski won by only 4% in 08? Nothing on PA 12.

    We should just start a site. I know we could do better.

  129. pitchaboy says:

    WH insiders do not fear a Croakley beating; they know it. That is why they have HC meetings on steroids.

  130. pitchaboy says:

    Nelson, Bayh and gang are praying for Brown. This is the only way they can stand up to Obama.

  131. pitchaboy says:

    It has come to this, Obama is being booed in MA. I thought yoiu would run into unicorns in MA before you spotted a Republican.

  132. Phil says:

    what pitch just said

  133. KnightHawk says:

    MD – EProj is GOP, scott’s been around awhile and they don’t normally gear up till late spring.

  134. KnightHawk says:

    134 – THX JustIn

  135. Jan says:

    The booing Obama got was from a pro-life person(s).

  136. MD says:

    Thanks Knight. I mean PA 3 is a no brainer, GOP pickup yet it is not even on their list. For the record I now think the following will turn red:

    3,4,7,11 and 12. Yes, Murtha goes down and hard!

  137. phoenixrisen says:

    Thanks for the correction on Election Projection. I must have gotten it mixed up in my head 😉

  138. pitchaboy says:

    In an election where the independents are smoking the dems, Obama is blaming Brown for voting Republican 96% ofthe time. Genius, that is the only reason MA is sending Brown to Washington—-to vote Republican and stop your agenda.

  139. MD says:


    I would have guessed that it would have been an ardent pro-choice person myself.

  140. phoenixrisen says:

    If Obama is getting heckled in Massachusetts, what a political environment the Democrats have gained with their arrogance in trying to push something that the majority of the people don’t want.

  141. MD says:

    145 was good natured sarc btw. Jan is one of the nicest people on the internet.

  142. Tommy_Boy says:

    I thought everyone who was pro-life lived in the South?

  143. Mark Cali says:

    MD – Let’s do it. No joke. How do we get in contact?

  144. MD says:

    I’ll bet that pro-lifer has a truck!

  145. KnightHawk says:

    148 – Except for those damned Catholics working at hostpitals in MA. 😉

  146. rdelbov says:

    I think today was another plus day for Brown.

    Wow what a rally for him Worchester.

    The crowds have been huge and on fire for him

  147. KnightHawk says:

    “I’ll bet that pro-lifer has a truck!”

    You know that means… must be one of those racist pro rapist teabagging rednecks clinging to his guns and religion. Stage 5 clinger.

  148. MD says:


    There can be no doubt that today was a VERY positive day for Brown.

  149. MD says:

    “stage 5 clinger” I love it! LOL!

  150. Mark Cali says:

    MD – Just added you on messenger.

  151. MD says:

    That’s cool Mark.

  152. Jan says:

    I agree that Worchester was another over-flowing crowd —> simply amazing! Brown, as usual, was congenial, saying he hoped Obama was having a good trip out to Mass, since it was such a great state! Butter can melt in that man’s mouth!

    The weather has changed a bit in Mass too. 100% snow/rain today and tomorrow. And a 50% chance of rain/snow on Tuesday. IMO wet weather is a plus for Brown.

  153. KnightHawk says:

    157 – I figured you might 😉

  154. MD says:

    Fair warning though. I get very busy at times and can’t contribute much. I was the political editor of Rightpundits for 9 months but resigned because I could give the site what it deserved.

  155. Hellbelly says:

    ….hey, did you guys know that Scott Brown voted against allowing volunteers taking time off to help post-9/11?

    How do I know this?

    Well….I just got a phone call from the DNC telling me!

    (if the DNC is calling up the Hellbelly household, they MUST be desperate!).

  156. Mark Cali says:

    Let’s help the “Obama heckled by a kid” video go viral!

  157. KnightHawk says:

    163 – Call your news station and report it, was it a robo call?
    Also call Browns office and report it.

  158. Jan says:


    …and of course that turned your vote right around!

  159. KnightHawk says:

    Hey did you hear that Scott Brown voted to kill all puppies and kittens with Brown coats?

  160. Hellbelly says:


    Its such a weird experience getting these calls (I’ve gotten two from Scott Brown’s daughter today).

    Its been so long (i.e. NEVER) since I’ve lived up here and had a competitive race that we’ve never experienced the joy of of a robo-call.

    Its fun (for now). I imagine it can get annoying (but it isn’t yet).

  161. Mark Cali says:

    He did this all, while driving a truck! Obama doesn’t like that. He likes environmentally friendly Priuses.

  162. Jan says:

    Well, Hellbelly, enjoy all the excitement while you can. You are indeed involved in a very unique and riveting race that the whole country is watching!

  163. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #144 WTF does him “voting R 96%” mean in MA anyways? There are only 5 of them in the state senate (35 D) anyway lol

    So they are always voting for D proposals – what the heck is he going to do anyways lo

    He is a very NE/Moderate “romney” R and very independent in his votes compared to the national GOP – more fear, lies, and talking points by the DNC….

    but predictable lol

  164. Tommy_Boy says:

    On Monday:

    “Gov. Palin tells in interview that she disagrees with Glenn Beck; it’s NOT Romney’s turn to be GOP POTUS nominee”

  165. Jan says:

    …but, there is something about a truck that is super “manly,” I think. One of my first boyfriends had a pick-up and he taught me to drive with that vehicle. I have fun memories of that!

  166. KnightHawk says:

    168 – They do get real annoying, in fact if they are not careful in only hitting a phone once they may in fact hurt themselves (either camp).

  167. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    Da Brown truck shoulda been turned in ala cash for hoopdies and he should bought a frech Smart Car….


    ARRRRRRHHHHHH, we Gonnna go to NH, den ME, DEN the other 57 state ARRRRRR

  168. D.QUIXOTE says:

    Richter 8 reported at kennedy gravesite, tombstones tumble.

  169. MD says:


    I too have fond memories of a truck in my youth. It involved Mary Stewart and a certain stick shif////

    Never mind. This is not a rated x crowd! Ah, good times.

  170. MD says:

    A foul smell of alcohol is being reported at the grave site!

  171. D.QUIXOTE says:

    How to remove high heel marks from the headliner of a 64 chevy.

  172. KnightHawk says:

    That terrorist Jack Bauer spotted near Beacon Hill.

  173. Hellbelly says:

    ….i’ve been busy cooking and commenting here….wow…Jets putting up a nice fight!

  174. jason says:

    Intrade is now 60-40 Brown…the “investors” must have seen the MRG poll.

  175. Gary Maxwell says:

    BTW the Tea Party folks are in the midst of attempting to recall Menendez in NJ. Fairly recent law ( sometime in the 90s ) gives them that right and they are trying to get their petition to circulate approved, but the Democrat SoS is of course all in on fighting this.

    Since it does not appear to be a matter for the SoS this might get interesting. Think a hack like Menendez is any more popular right now than Corzine?

  176. KnightHawk says:

    181 – At least they are finally on the scoreboard now.

  177. Gary Maxwell says:

    Those of you who have money on the sidelines, you might want to get it in the market on Tuesday. Rally on Weds will be phenomenal. Crap and Charade and Card Check go down the rat hole and HC reform becomes tenuous at best.

  178. KnightHawk says:

    183 – Holy crap could imagine if that was actually pulled off?

  179. KnightHawk says:

    185 – They could always make a hard play at snowe, though I doubt after seeing this in MA that she’d be that utterly stupid.

  180. D.QUIXOTE says:

    There is no legal recall of u.s. senators.

  181. George aka Freemarketer says:

    Concure, D.Q.; the recall fire took off after Schwarzenkennedy, but the Constitution does not provide a mechanism for it. A similar effort was pointed at Mel Martinez a couple of years ago. Nice thought, though.

  182. KnightHawk says:

    188 – You mean you want to follow that pesky constitution thing? 😉

  183. tgcaGNAT says:

    OK…I don’t want to be a damper here…but everyone should take a deep breath and hope for the best on Tuesday. I see some posts getting a bit cocky here, just like in November over the NY 23rd where many thought it was a shoo-in for Hoffman. Brown could still lose this election. Keep in mind that the “hair dye” story has not hit the MSM yet, but I predict it will by Monday. This could be devastating for Brown. I just hope he does not lie about it and just admit that he does do a little hair dyeing. The American electorate can be very forgiving…as long as they don’t catch him on film primping his hair. Remember this one:

  184. Gary Maxwell says:

    Elections and rules, including recall, are set at the state level. Its why some states have governor appointments of cronies and others have governor appointments of someone from the party of the resigning Senator. There is no prohibition of recall voting in the Constitution. Frankly, Senators were not elected when the Constitution was adopted so it would have to be in the amendments. Its not. It can happen.

  185. rdelbov says:


    did you read jan’s post and Ace of Spades on Kirk still being a senator. I related to you the other day and ins of outs of past precedent in the senate. A flaw in state law (poet and don’t know it) is a potential spot in the oitment.

    I still think that until the US surpreme court kicked Kirk out the US senate with 59 democrats (surely Kirk would not vote on his own case) would keep him in.

  186. Tommy_Boy says:

    In the Wash Po rescue poll, 25% of the sample was comprised of liberals.

    Also the lean D, D/lean R, R split increased from 44/43 to 49/43. You can account for the change in his approval rating just from that alone.

  187. Gary Maxwell says:

    Hoffman was a third party candidate, and frankly a doofus. He was not a resident of the district, and quite unphotogenic. He got close.

    Totally different metric here. I have never seen a race with this kind of momentum turn out to be a loser, without a game changer. The democrats tried that with the rape victims lie, and it failed. Coakley will go down to a huge loss.

  188. Gary Maxwell says:

    Hair Dye is going to stop this candidate? I will refrain from laughing outloud but will call bullshLT on that one.

  189. Yolanda says:

    At this point, I’m surprised the DSCC hasn’t done a mailing of Brown’s nude centerfold from the 80s, with retouching done in key areas.

  190. jason says:

    Right wins in Chile after 20 years of social-democrats in power.

  191. Yolanda says:

    Even Chileans are sick of Obamanomics!!

  192. tgcaGNAT says:

    My history here is not very strong but I do not believe a senator can be recalled, even if state law allows, and a mumber of state do allow. They can be expelled or possibly impeached (a separate argument exists around this as well) under the US Constitution but not recalled. It has never happened in the US history, and that being the case, then it probably never will.

    It would be a very bad precedent to start and would only end up helping the Dems in this case. Remember what happened with Clinton! Trying to recall a duly elected official under dubious laws hurt those that seek the removal most. Do the Reps and conservatives really want to open that door? My opinion is that a politician should be allowed to finish their term and let the people decide their fate in future elections. I see nothing that these senators have done (i.e. heinous criminal activity, high crimes, etc.) that raises to the level of removing them from office. The fact that they have a radical political agenda is not enough to remove them from office because if that is the case, many Reps could also be removed from office for the advocation of what many believe are radical right agendas.

  193. Gary Maxwell says:

    I note that the Constitution says:

    Article I, § 4, cl. 1, prohibits the Congress from exercising a power to “make or alter” state regulations of elections in order to determine where Senators must be chosen.

    And of course powers not enumerated in the Constitution are reserved for the States. I seem no reason why a State can not provide for both the election and recall of their Senator.

  194. Gary Maxwell says:

    And No, Senators can not be impeached. The Constitution provides that remedy for the President and the Judiciary.

  195. D.QUIXOTE says:

    “where they are chosen”is a far cry from recalling them.

  196. Wes says:

    Stay focused, Hellbelly. We need Brown to stop Obamacare.

  197. Gary Maxwell says:

    In fact 18 states do provide a recall mechanism. Those states are:

    Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington and Wisconsin.

  198. tgcaGNAT says:


    You miss my point. Getting cocky about something is a sure way to make one look like a fool if it does not pan out. A number of times I have noticed this on HHR, just like on the lefty blogs. I hope Brown wins! I want Brown to win! It looks like Brown will win! But if he does not, many here will learn a hard lesson in politics which is never get arrogant and cocky about your chances because it is the people that decide. It is the reason Coakley is in trouble in the 1st place. She took this seat for granted. I believe had she approached this election differently, she would most likely be in a different position right now.

    …and I disagree with you on Hoffman. He almost won and probably would have won if he entered the race a month earlier. Remember, he was a last minute candidate. Most thought he was going to win on election night but he did not. It is one thing to be confident, it is another to be arrogant and cocky!

  199. Hellbelly says:


    Aside from the impact of three Ketel One’s….i’m focused… focused as can be.

    Trust me…..i’ve seen enough in 50 years to understand how important this one is.

    ….and i feel GOOD!

  200. KnightHawk says:

    How’s obama polling in Israel, has he broken 10% yet?

  201. Jan says:

    tgna — I agree with your premise about being too over-confident on this Mass race.

    However, people on the blogs seem to be holding their collective breath more than simply taking the race for granted, IMO.

    It’s like being in an operating room where lots of jokes are passed around, not to be insensitive, but, rather to relieve the tension.

    I think some of the comic relief here and elsewhere falls into that kind of category.

  202. tgcaGNAT says:

    Those states laws have never been litigated and would most likely not prevail in court, especially after over 200 years of never having a precedent. Many states have laws that are not enforeceable but have never been removed from their books. It is highly unlikely a senator can be removed in a recall election.

  203. KnightHawk says:

    Amendment XVII
    “The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each state, elected by the people thereof, for six years; and each Senator shall have one vote. The electors in each state shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the state legislatures. ”

    One elected by the people you got your 6 years unless your retire or die. I believe even if expelled the term still has to run it’s course unless said fool actually retires to allow for another election no? Now if we’d kept the original language without XVII, then yes whatever the state legislature setup could playout, but currently I don’t see how a recall of a house or senate member is constitutional despite state laws that may have such parameters.

  204. KnightHawk says:

    210 – Agreed. Still it’s a nice thought.

  205. Wes says:

    Menendez will not be recalled. To assume it’s even possible is lunacy.

  206. Gary Maxwell says:


    I reject your point emphatically. Neither superstition nor “overconfidence” has anything to do with posting opinions on a blog. There is no opinion police here, agree or disagree but dont try to enforce your own superstitions here.

  207. tgcaGNAT says:


    I agree with you. I just find it hypocritical that some on HHR accuse other sites of being arrogant and cocky but then behave in the same manner. To me the polls are meaningless if you can’t get out your vote. But I do recall how over-confident some in HHR got in previous elections and then only had to eat crow, and then they usually blame others for why the loss occurred. I am confident but cautious. For anyone that works in the legal profession, this is something you learn to live with. You cannot predict results when their are many unknowns, regardless of what popular opinion is.

    The “hair-dye” story is devastating to Brown. 🙂

  208. Diogenes says:

    I use to go to election projection back in 2004. Scott was one of the few sites to call it right for Bush but he bungled the 2006 elections. Jumped over from his site to this site in 2008 because of how negative things looked. Lots of great attempts to push for a McCain win somehow but we all knew the numbers didn’t support it, even with the most blatant manipulation of polling I’ve seen in my short 8 years of watching politics and polling.

    I don’t feel good about Brown and I won’t until he’s actuall called the winner. This is Massachussetts for god’s sake. And a lot of outside democratic money is pouring into Coakley’s race too. I just hope that the dead people and animals they get to vote are stupid and vote for the guy named Kennedy instead of Coakley. How misinformed most democratic voters are may actually help us with the ACORN vote.

  209. Gary Maxwell says:

    Takes 25% of votes cast in the last Senate race to have a recall election scheduled. That is most definitely possible.

  210. pitchaboy says:

    Joe Namath revisited with the Jets. Awesome defense.

  211. Phil says:

    What’s the hair dye story?

  212. Hellbelly says:

    I’m no Jets fan by any stretch of the imagination, but you have to love this game!

  213. Jim B. says:

    If you google “Recall of U.S. Senators,” you’ll find up in the first few items a research report done for Sen. Dick Lugar explaining the constitutional reasons why neither states nor people have a right to recall a Senator or Congressman, despite several states’ laws to the contrary. I believe conservatives in Idaho tried to recall Frank Church back in the 70s & couldn’t.

  214. pitchaboy says:

    GNAT, in a way the polls reflect turnout. The models take into account who will come out with pitchforks. Last time it was dems, now it is the republicans.

  215. KnightHawk says:

    “It’s like being in an operating room where lots of jokes are passed around, not to be insensitive, but, rather to relieve the tension.” -Jan

    That’s a very nice way of describing it I think.

  216. tgcaGNAT says:


    I am making a point…the purpose of a blog. You can disagree with it but it does not mean it is incorrect. I am not trying to play hall monitor here. I am making an observation about HHR past posts and elation and subsequent disappointments. HHR, like many sites, tend to get caught up in the moment and behave in a manner that they criticize others for but fail to recognize within themselves. It is a constructively critical observation that should not be ignored because it is unpopular to state.

  217. pitchaboy says:

    I told my son the Jets defence reminded me of the Eagles ofthe late 80’s. He told me their coach is Buddy Ryan’s son. Makes sense.

  218. KnightHawk says:

    222 – Only entertaining one this weekend so far.

  219. pitchaboy says:

    It is okay to feel a bit upbeat after being down in the dumps for a couple of years.The worst thing that can happen is Brown loses and we are brought down to earth. Atleast we had our jollies until then.

  220. Wes says:

    It will be great to see Nelson go.

  221. Jan says:


    Like I said, I understand about having a safety net of caution when talking about these races. It really does depend on turn-out for Brown rather than Coakley.

    I try to keep an attitude that it’s been an amazing race, win or lose. Nobody anticipated that it would go the way it has. A strong message has already been sent to the powers that be. A Brown win, however, would be like the frosting on a cake.

  222. tgcaGNAT says:


    I agree with you. Polls generally reflect a good pulse of the electorate’s feelings in normal elections. Those models do not have a track record for turnout in special elections however. I just read where one special election had a 17% turnout, and polling does not reflect that expectation. Again, I believe Brown has the momentum and could win. But if he loses, I would not be surprised because of the vast unknowns here. …especially the “hair-dye” story. 🙂

  223. MD says:

    A month ago no one even thought it would be a race. Win or lose, it is fun AND a huge loss for the Dems in the mids.

  224. Chekote says:

    Praying the Brown wins. It is the only way to stop HC reform.

  225. pitchaboy says:

    I think this is not a typical special election. It has been effectively nationalized by the HC debate and the turnout is going to be fairly high barring bad weather. And ifthere is bad weather, it will further help Brown as Croakley’s friends these days are fair-weather friends.

  226. Wes says:

    Diogenes had a great post.

  227. tgcaGNAT says:

    #223 JimB:

    I agree. I have read a few issues that constitutonal scholars have with senate removals. The fact that the people would vote for removal is not the issue. The issue is whether the mechanism they were allowed to vote for removal under (i.e. a state law) is constitutional. The fact that it has never happened in our nation’s history is extremely strong evidence that it never will happen without some major revision of the US Constitution or interpretation of it at the USSC level.

    …and of course, though it is nice to dream about this with respect to certain senators, this could easily hurt Reps as well, since I bet many would be willing to remove Rep senators. IMO, it is a door that should never be opened. The people make a contract with their vote and that vote should extend the duration of the contract unless heinous criminal activity occurs for which other remedies exist.

  228. Marv says:


    Some lady named Opel Sapphire called the office today and wanted to apologize to you about last night….I’m just relaying the message.

  229. D.QUIXOTE says:

    google “congressional research service recall senators”

    check crs-5

  230. pitchaboy says:

    GNAT, I firmly believe unless unemployment falls below 9%, election after election will be turkey shoots. The democratic turkeys and republican hunters. Polls, models, etc. are trivia when the national mood is so sour.

  231. Chekote says:

    That flyer the Dems put out against Brown is absolutely despicable.

  232. wheelz says:

    OMG… Scott Brown once dyed his
    hair. I think most will overlook that scandal.

  233. D.QUIXOTE says:

    Praying the Brown wins. It is the only way to stop HC reform.

    Comment by Chekote

    24 hours later, dirty dingy harry would cram it through via the budget reconcilliation route.

  234. Chekote says:

    OMG… Scott Brown once dyed his

    Absolutely shocking!!!! 🙄

  235. Marv says:

    Does anyone have a report from MA on the Obama visit and Brown’s rally?

  236. Chekote says:

    24 hours later, dirty dingy harry would cram it through via the budget reconcilliation route.

    If he does, most of the provisions don’t go into effectin until after 2012. Why are the Dems on such a suicidal mission?

  237. Chekote says:


    I can’t believe Obama went to MA to campaign for that loser. He has wasted so much political capital this year and has very little to show for it.

  238. Chekote says:

    Great game going on. The Cowboys game was pretty sad.

  239. pitchaboy says:

    HC is the gift that keeps on giving for the repubs. If all that Croakley can talk about is hair dye and Brown’s hair the weekend before the election, you know the result.

  240. Phil says:

    He can’t cram it through with reconciliation in 24 hours. It has to be restructured and that means sent back to 2 committees. That would drag it out for months. The bill is bleeding Democrats dry. The last thing they can afford is to have it strung out into the late spring and summer.

    It’s killing them politically.

  241. Jim B. says:

    “Massachusetts Miracle” – great video.

    If you haven’t seen this video yet, go on YouTube & look for “Massachusetts Miracle.” It is outstanding–too bad it’s just a video & not a Brown campaign ad. (or maybe it is)

  242. D.QUIXOTE says:

    If he does, most of the provisions don’t go into effectin until after 2012. Why are the Dems on such a suicidal mission?

    Comment by Chekote

    most of the provisions don’t go into effect until after 2012 no matter how they pass it. They do it because they are insane.

  243. wheelz says:

    Crapley and Obomo was on Fox News and it was
    a horrible rally… but I have not seen anything
    on the Brown rally. Is there a video of it

  244. tgcaGNAT says:

    #239 Quixote

    Good summary article. Though it is the opinion of one legal expert, it does generally make sense to me and I doubt after over 200 years there would be a new precedent set by allowing the people to remove a senator through recall, especially since the USSC and various other courts have addressed the underlying issue of Federal vs. State rights in this and other circumstances (as referenced in this article). This paper seems to make the similar arguments I have read over time, and therefore I doubt it will ever become an issue to be concerned over.

    The only way I could ever see this happening is if GWB or Sarah Palin became senators. Then I could see the Dems changing the US Constitution simply to remove them from office. 🙂

  245. KnightHawk says:

    254 – There are photo’s and video at PJ media.

  246. MD says:


    Your right. The nuke option is not simple to deploy. It would drag out HC for a minimum of 4 more weeks, probably more.

    Further, if (IF) Brown wins, the Dems may not get 50 for that option. I can’t see Byah, Nelson, Lieby, Lincoln, Baucus, LA slu+, Lincoln, The CO guy (name escapes me!), Gildy, Johnson, Burr and Bill Nelson voting for it. Honestly, I think there are more that would vote no.

  247. tgcaGNAT says:

    Yes! I was shocked when I read about Brown dyeing his hair a bit darker to hide some of that gray. It is scandalous! He should do the right thing and step down as the Rep candidate. It is inexcusable that a political candidate would engage in such an act. It is totally selfish and without precedent of any previous candidates in politics. He is just another RINO hurting the Reps. Now knowing this, I would definitely cast my vote for Coakley if I were in MA. The choice is now obvious. The issue is clearly black and white to me…there is no gray here…at least not anymore. 🙂

  248. KnightHawk says:

    Final – Jets 17 SD:14 w00t!

  249. Hellbelly says:

    wow….as i’ve said, I’m no Jets fan, but that was a great game for the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets!

  250. MD says:

    What about Biden’s plugs and Pelosi’s face lifts? Oh, like screwing around it is OK if you are a Dem.

  251. Marv says:


    Let me get this straight on the schedule of known poll releases, we have PPP(D) out sometime between 1030 and 1100 tonight and we have PJM/CrossTalk at 3 am EST. Is that correct? If RAS does one more, it should be out by 5 tomorrow.

  252. Diogenes says:

    If Brown wins, I think the chances of absolute failure are much, much greater.

    The Democrats were betting on passing this quickly by early February and moving on.

    Brown winning gives the Republicans a filibuster and moderate dems cover (those that are going to vote against the final bill but not for a filibuster). If the GOP gets a unified front, the bill will have to go back to actually incorporate some ideas to actually pass the senate and the closer the bill gets to the 2010 midterms, the more unlikely it gets passed.

    I sent Brown 100 dollars. Unfortunately a friend of mine was registered to vote in Massachussetts but the deadline for absentee ballots was January 15th. Foolish of me, but I will do what I can.

  253. sam says:

    I believe that they can only get some pieces through reconciliation if they tried. Things like the tax increases and other money items.

    Elements such as individual mandates could not go through reconciliation.

    (Or it may be the other way around.)

    It doesn’t matter. If Brown wins, HC is dead.

    That is why Obama is in MA today. Not because he cares about Coakley.

  254. Marv says:

    Is Obama back in the White House, yet?

  255. tgcaGNAT says:


    I would hope that if Brown wins that senators would do the right thing. If they delay his seating simply to pass a bill, that really hurts the senate and will go down in history as a low point for them…not that they are actually at a high point now. I think some of the more reasonable Dems or those up for re-election in red states would be hesitant to allow such delaying tactics but one never knows. I think that Reps should also boycott the vote if such a tactic occurred where it was apparent that all Dems would vote for the bill. Either that or send two hot “Girls Gone Wild” over to Robert Byrd’s the evening before the vote. 🙂

  256. Chekote says:

    Jets all the way!!!!!

  257. jones says:

    I have read that Chokely’s rally was sold out and I have read that it was packed and people outside. I have seen no pictures other than the FOX report. Anyone help?

  258. Chekote says:

    That is why Obama is in MA today. Not because he cares about Coakley.

    You are probably right. However, after Corzine why would Obama think that he can make a difference this late in the game? Brown is winning big among indies. They are not going to switch their vote just because Obama showed up in MA.

  259. Brandon says:

    It’s not about switching votes, it’s about getting Democrats who weren’t going to show, to actually get out and vote for Coakley.

  260. tgcaGNAT says:


    The sell out was due to the free booze and weed I heard so keep it in context.

  261. wheelz says:

    Not a big believer of Intrade… but
    SCOTT BROWN is surging… up to 66 for
    those that follow such things.

  262. Marv says:

    So PPP is going to release their MA poll during that last hour of “24”?

  263. rdelbov says:

    Okay here’s the political analysis of the weather. Has this race be studied or not?

    This is a great site by the way. They had bunches of photos and links

  264. Chekote says:


    But aren’t the majority of voters in MA indies? I know that the Dems have a 3 to 1 advantage. But I suspect that the GOP numbers are very low so 3 to 1 is still a minority of voters.

  265. Chekote says:

    Please no intrade. Thank you.

  266. MD says:


    Sorry I lost you on the messenger. I can’t figure out how to get back. Sorry.

  267. wheelz says:

    Please no Chekote. Thank you!

    and thats from someone that lurks.

  268. Chekote says:

    and thats from someone that lurks.

    Does lurking give you extra credibility or something? I think not. Sorry but I will post whenever I feel like it.

  269. Chekote says:

    Tiger gave $3 million to Haiti. I just hope that all the resources pouring in will finally get Haitians out of their miserable poverty.

  270. KnightHawk says:

    274 – I will be dark from 9 – 11 for that so hopefully they do it at 11:05pm. 😉

  271. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #198 Your correct, that win for the center-right canidate in Chille is HUGE – its a good sign that a latin american counter bloc can form to the hugho-castro-lulu-ortega commie/authoritarian bloc….

    As for getting over confident in MA….well, its great we have a chance but its MA after all….

    With all the D advatages their I dont think anyone should be more then cautiously optimistic…..

    I am not too sure an “message” has been sent to the hard left gang – they seem very much in the “dont give a fart” mode since jan 20, 2009 lol

    The power grab called “HC reform” is so great from the left that its doubtful they will just drop it if Brown wins…..I look for them to try to pass the Senate bill “as-is” thru the house – it contains all the power grab/dependecy elements they need – individual mandate for 100% forced participation, huge subsidies for dependency, massive tax increases, de facto control of medical care and insurance thru regulation/rationing, and 100 new fed agencies to hire millions of new seiu employees….

    No, I look for them to fight to the bitter end…..

    The simple fact that they push despite public outcry literally mounting by the second tells you how much power they think they will get by ramming this thru…

  272. wheelz says:

    Well Ms Chekote… i posted about the intrade
    … i said it was for those that cared to know..
    and you opened your pie hole about PLEASE
    NO INTRADE. I may not post much… but I’m
    in to good of a mood to take crap from you.

  273. addisonst says:

    Intrade is more reactive than predictive on elections, but it’s still a pretty amazing swing. Brown traded at a nickel last week. And this is a race where it’s harder to follow the polls and invest on intrade. Then again, I said this race was over on Friday when Brown was still at 30.

    Also, if one wants to double their money, they can take the Gops to capture the house this year. The gops still only trade around 33-35 which I find both odd and fascinating.

  274. Chekote says:


    I don’t want to get into a fight. Intrade moves with headlines. I don’t feel that it brings much to the table. Anyway, I can’t believe that Brown is ahead by 10 points. If he wins, it will be 4 or 5 at the most. Kinda like Christie.

  275. Chekote says:

    When will Ras release the final numbers on MA? Although Ras is not as good for state races as it is for national numbers. At least, I think that is right.

  276. theoneandonlyfinn says:

    I have the best, most accurate indicator ever for elections.

    On the Election day, I run to the bathroom.
    if it floats, the GOP wins.
    if it sinks, we lose.

    If it comes out blue, I call a doctor.

    I’ll be sure to let you all know what happens.

  277. wheelz says:

    Well for Chekote that is as close to an
    apology as I will get… so I will accept it.

    Now… GO SCOTT BROWN!!!!

  278. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #286 Yeah, these 10, 11 Brown or Coakley 15 polls are BS – nobody beleive them….its 1-4 pts either way…..tight

  279. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #288 thats as good as any method for this race – pinch it out lol

  280. jason says:

    Highest bid for Coakley right now on Intrade is 28….there are bidders for Brown at 63 but no sellers, lowest seller at 69…

    As pointed out Intrade is reactive, not predictive, it reflects available information rather than inside information.

    Still, perceptions are important and a bandwagon effect 48 hours before the vote is valuable in the sense it depresses the Coakley vote and increases the enthusiasm of Brown voters.

  281. Chekote says:


    I am not sure I want to know. Let’s wait for the results if you don’t mind.

  282. Chekote says:

    I think that flyer will backfire big time. I think women will vote for Brown. He is really handsome.

  283. jason says:

    “I’ll be sure to let you all know what happens”

    What happens if nothing happens?

  284. KnightHawk says:

    287 – There is no confirmation there will be another reading from Madam Rasmussen.

  285. Chekote says:

    I have been really busy these pass weeks and I am trying to get caught up with political news. It doesn’t appear that Ras was intimidated by the WH after all. His polls are still showing Obama tanking.

  286. Chekote says:

    GOP winning is NJ and MA would be simply fantastic. Who would have thought it possible a year ago? BTW, McConnell was pretty effective in going after the special deals that unions are getting on HC reform. Hopefully, people will get just as angry about it as they did about Nebraska’s special deal.

  287. Chekote says:


    You had to ask, didn’t you? 🙂

  288. jason says:


    Barney Frank: “Obama is not Martha Coakley in drag.” Not sure who that statement is meant to help . . . .

    UPDATE: Reader Steve Corcoran writes: “With all the gaffes that she has made, I’m starting to think that Martha Coakley is Joe Biden in drag.”

  289. KnightHawk says:

    French blame USA over medical delays (haiti) … lol 😉
    /off to the tv bubble catch you later.

  290. jason says:

    300. Was just floating another outcome….

  291. Tommy_Boy says:

    PPP(D) is getting inundated with e-mails, hahaha.

  292. theoneandonlyfinn says:

    #304…because we are so obsessed with this…
    we are asking the pollster OMG WTF O RLY LOL?!?


    We used to have to wait for a poll. Now we harass them DURING THE POLLING.


    Its exciting

  293. AlN says:

    #197: At this point, I’m surprised the DSCC hasn’t done a mailing of Brown’s nude centerfold from the 80s, with retouching done in key areas.
    Comment by Yolanda — January 17, 2010 @ 6:54 pm

    Actually, Keith Olberman DID show the picture on his sleazy show! (There was no retouching done, though.) Olberman also openly called Brown a “teabagger”.

    #234: Praying the Brown wins. It is the only way to stop HC reform.
    Comment by Chekote — January 17, 2010 @ 7:35 pm

    No offense, Chekote, but are you REALLY praying? I thought you once said you were an atheist. Am I mistaken in my memory?

    Also, Chekote, as a professional statistician, I happen to find Intrade very interesting and quite often they’re very accurate in projecting results. If nothing else, they show what the majority of informed people THINK is going to happen. That 2/3 of informed political people think Brown will win — that’s terrific news!

  294. Marv says:

    Screw the damn French, I’m getting tired of their BS. They don’t belong in Haiti anyway.

  295. Tina says:

    This poll more or less matches ARG’s with the adjustments by Morrissey. My source is very happy, but I am not b/c its down pouring here.

  296. Tina says:

    Well, the French and the English are right. The relief effort is a disaster right now. I must add that I share the opinion of the General.

  297. Marv says:


    Where are you, in the PST?

  298. Tina says:

    Phuq PPP-D just release the freaking poll result, and quit wiht the TWeets and the Twits.

  299. Tina says:

    CA Time -LOL.

    You sir, where are you?

    You make me jealous with your Pink Palace remarks. I had a bad memory of HI – a lovely state. Got stung by a jelly fish decades ago, pretty painful.

  300. Tina says:

    Ed Morrissey’s article cited by Phil here is a great piece of work.

  301. Marv says:


    The reason for the screw ups is that Obama has not ordered the military to establish Joint Task Force Haiti. JTFH would then assume control of all Haitian relief missions with a central US commander. That kind of stuff offends Obama.

  302. Tina says:

    For my Dallas Cowboy friends here:

    Tony Turnover and Coach Blubber will not win a Superbowl.

    Ever – NEVER.

  303. Tina says:

    Marv do you live on the West Coast too?

    I agree it would also help if there is joint coordination on the groudn with our allies.

    BTW – the French President hates the OBumbler.

  304. Marv says:


    Location, FL. Loved HI ever since my USAF days (that probably had something to do with the ladies on the beach.)

  305. Marv says:

    Yep, the French think that Obama is a substandard
    leader. I share their opinion.

  306. Marv says:

    I’m going dark for 2 hours. I’ve paused “24” at the beginning so that I can FF through the commercials, now I’m going to start the show.

  307. Tina says:

    Great state marv.
    HI is also nice. The pink palace is finished with its remodeling, right?

  308. tgcaGNAT says:

    #197 Yolanad:

    Actually, if Scott Brown’s nude pics were at issue in this campaign, that just might help and not hurt his election bid.

    Ask most women who would they rather see “nekid” Scott or Martha? Ask the same question of men. Either way, I don’t see Martha coming out on top. 🙂

  309. Marv says:


    The Royal Hawaiian has been restored to its former glory and is beautiful. The only thing that I don’t like is that they remodeled the “Surf Room” and turned it into “The Azure Room.” It is a very nice upscale restaurant, but it is not the “Surf Room.”

  310. rdelbov says:

    One more poll to confirm what some others have shown

    I might have liked a have voted already question. That % of turnout seems likely to me

  311. Tina says:

    The president may recall as well how much he used to talk about a new kind of politics – about campaigns based on conviction, instead of just false and small-minded negative ads. Well, as long as he’s paying a visit, he might want to talk to Martha about that. Not only are her ads negative, they are malicious. How quickly the politics of hope have become replaced by the politics of desperation. Shame on Martha.

    Scott Brown slams the Obumbler, his complete speech is at NRO.

  312. Chekote says:

    I thought you once said you were an atheist. Am I mistaken in my memory?

    You are mistaken. I am not an atheist. I am secular.

  313. Brandon says:

    Why are we all of a sudden trusting polls from pollsters that have come out of nowhere?

  314. Phil says:

    Looking at that poll it shows Brown up 9.6 with a sample of 57% female?

    Almost a little too good to be true.

  315. tgcaGNAT says:

    #323 Bayer:

    This is the 1st glimpse we get to see the demographics on a poll at this late date. It appears the party split is reasonable, though the response to turnout seems a bit high…but who knows.

    Again, I don’t want to jinx it for the superstitious here so I will not release my prediction until Wednesday morning.

  316. Chekote says:

    The French suck. And anyone who thought Obama was going to make the French like us was a fool.

  317. Phil says:

    Brandon, I’m not trusting any one poll one way or the other. As I always like to say, it’s just one poll.

  318. Tina says:

    Thanks Marv, when I return to Hawaii, I will again stay at the Pink Palace. I could easily afford the $300 a night suite.

  319. Chekote says:

    with a sample of 57% female?

    Women are the majority of the electorate. They account for at least 52% of voters at the national level. Am I right Brandon?

    Anyway, if Brown is doing well in a poll that has oversampled women he is going to win.

  320. tgcaGNAT says:

    There is no reason to discuss or legitimize the French. They’re French! Let’s leave it at that.

  321. Brandon says:

    I’m just a little suspicious of polls from companies called CrossTarget and Merriman River Group.

    And women should probably be around 53% for this election in my opinion.

  322. Tina says:

    But the Obumbler promised us that Europe will luv us, the one thing he forgot is that the Europeans – Western are mainly Socialists, who hate us.

    The Obumber just said that he knows Nothing about Brown’s policies….

  323. tgcaGNAT says:

    So were these polls taken before or after the “hair-dye” story broke?

  324. Tina says:

    If they are allied polls done for one side or the other, they should bne tossed.

  325. Sir Alberto McDougalito says:

    Goind to war without France is like going hunting without an accordian.

  326. Phil says:

    Chekote, my point was that it had Brown up 10 points EVEN with an oversampling of women – a demographic that tends more Democratic. Thus, my comment that it seemed to be too good to be true.

  327. Tina says:

    Not sure if this was covered, but the Obumbler was heckled in Mass.

  328. MD says:

    Brown up by 9. I was messenging with Mark Cali and that is the exact % I thought they would show. Doesn’t mean a whit but interesting.

    Nate at 538 is bending over backwards trying to explain why Coakley should win but hedging at the same time.

    Silver was OK in Dem trending years because he is a biased lib but his cred is about to get flushed down the toilet.

  329. MD says:

    It was Tina. A 10 year old kid was doing the heckling.

  330. rdelbov says:

    Not impressed with Silver’s analysis

    How some waffles Nat??

  331. tgcaGNAT says:

    Unless Scott’s turnout is enormous, I would think if he wins, it would be in the 1% to 6% range at most. But its dependent on turnout which is so hard to predict in these special elections. It is feasible he can get 9% but not likely.

  332. Tina says:

    I think the Obumbler hates Black People based on the Haiti non response.

  333. Tina says:

    I think Browns wins it by 4 to 5 points, if turnout is what I expect.

    Does anyone have the # of folks at the Obumbler event?

  334. Marv says:


    The Moana Surfrider (the orginal hotel on Waikiki)
    has recently completed a renovation of their original building and it’s beautiful too. That’s where the old radio show “Hawaii Calls” originated, on the veranda in the back underneath the giant Banyan tree.

  335. tgcaGNAT says:

    Tina was the heckler in MA? You go Tina!

  336. Tina says:

    Silverfish is probably hoping for a PPP-D Bailout poll.

  337. jones says:


    1100 according to KOS, with people from both sides outside.

  338. MD says:


    Agreed and here is my prediction. A ton of thought went into this and I still admit that anything is possible:

    Brown – 52%
    Cokes – 46.3
    Kennedy – 1.7

  339. tgcaGNAT says:

    #348 Tina:

    That is not fair! Your comment is way out of line. I do not believe for a moment that Obama hates black people. He just prefers the “light skinned AA with no negro dialects.” That is different than hating black people.

  340. Chekote says:


    I agree with you. I don’t want to get too excite about Brown winning. I don’t want a repeat of NY 23. That was a real bummer.

  341. Tina says:

    I would not be caught dead there in MA.

  342. MD says:


    Have you read Michener’s Hawaii? If no, you should.

  343. Chekote says:

    What did the heckler say? I couldn’t decipher it. I am getting sooooo old.

  344. Tina says:

    Gosh, nRO is reporting that Brown got at least 3500 for one of his.

  345. Marv says:


    OK, I’ll do it.

  346. tgcaGNAT says:

    #354 MD:

    Kennedy is dead and should not be allowed on the ballot! This is outrageous!

  347. Tina says:

    So, TG, he hates Haitians?

  348. Chekote says:

    I think the Obumbler hates Black People based on the Haiti non response.

    Actually, his response to Haiti was much more swift that Fort Hood or the Panty bomber.

  349. Sir Alberto McDougalito says:

    Folks-i don’t think we are going to be pleasantly surprised by turnout. It will be an absolute showstopper. These people in MA are itching to send a message and they will bring their brothers and sisters, even their mother-in-laws. I think we are underestimating what is about to occur.

    This will may Jersey look like a nail-biter.

  350. MD says:


    They had to turn away people. There are signs over almost every highway overpass for Brown. It has gone viral.

    I can only compare this to Reagan’s late momentum against Carter although I know it is not an apple’s to apple’s comparison

  351. Hellbelly says:

    Alberto…..the vibe of a potential blow-out is growing.

  352. Tina says:

    It is viral and my source is happy, I have no leaked results though. b I liked his speech at NRO.

  353. Mark Cali says:

    This comment by Geoff sums up Nate’s analysis perfectly:

    can you even see the irony of using Rasmussen as the most weighted poll, despite its relative age, when you yourself hammered Rasmussen as having an awful “house effect” on this VERY RACE just days ago while hammering on the Ras poll and loving on the then 30 point lead from the Suffolk poll, which, of course, switched to a four point Brown lead?

    Your analysis is internally inconsistent and meanders based on partisan objectives, not sound methodology.


  354. Tina says:

    Silverfish is an indepenent pollster, be nice to him, despite his shortcomins.

  355. tgcaGNAT says:

    #366 MD:

    I agree, not equivalent at all, more like pickles to banana comparison. But it does feel strangely odd…as if the Gods are watching over Brown.

  356. Marv says:


    One thing you’ll notice on your next trip to HI, the people may be liberal in their domestic politics, but they are very supportive of the US armed forces and their HI National Guard.

  357. Tina says:

    The reports of Brown stalling were false, as the Morrissey article indicated. The only things stalling are the Haitian non response.

  358. Tina says:

    Marv, they indeed are. We get the flyers for $300 round trip flights to honolulu out of SFO. Very tempting…

  359. Tina says:

    Ok,Geraldine is on the ground in Hait. I feel relieve.

  360. Tina says:

    Well, its time to fix dinner, got to run for now.

  361. Chekote says:

    Let’s say Brown wins. How long before he is sworn in as Senator? Also, what time will the polls close on Tuesday?

  362. Sir Alberto McDougalito says:

    Something big is a brewing…even the clams in the chowder are beginning to whisper “Brown” to unsuspecting diners across the commonwealth. Excuse me while I go slap my mother-in-law in the next room. Poor thing, she’s been tied up for days and stuck watching re-runs of Dukes of Hazzard.

  363. tgcaGNAT says:

    #372 Marv:

    That is because they grew up with military and it supports their communities (i.e. economics). But wait until they secede from the union. 🙂

  364. Jan says:

    Loved the link to the “weather” provided by rdel in #275. It’s amazing that the areas getting slammed more by bad weather are the more liberal ones. Coincidence? I don’t think so! Maybe some divine intervention happening! LOL

  365. Chekote says:


    You are simply brilliant. LOL!

  366. Marv says:


    Are you eligible for Space Avail flight out of Travis?

  367. Marv says:


    If HI leaves the Union, I may move there. Either that our Texas.

  368. tgcaGNAT says:

    OMG! Alberto’s gotta slap granny. Tina’s gotta get dinner…and I gotta feed the pooch. See ya soon!

  369. Marv says:

    26 minutes til PPP

  370. tgcaGNAT says:

    I dated and have known a number of people from Hawaii. Very strange folks. I think their lack of attachment to the mainland impacts their judgment and reasoning ability at times.

  371. Brandon says:

    New thread

  372. Chekote says:

    I found this on Sullivan’s site from an Obama supporter in MA:

    “I’m with you in thinking that Obama is the best thing the Democrats have going for them right now. But I also think that in having the supermajority, they actually undercut him. They don’t have to compromise and so they don’t try to. Instead, what passes as legislation is a horrid mismash of corporate interests and traditional, not progressive, balms of the Democratic Party. I know this country can do much, much better. And I think Obama needs a less powerful Democratic party to make it happen, like Clinton did.”

    Interesting. I do think that Pelosi and Reid have done more to hurt Obama than anyone else.

  373. Big D says:

    I disagree. It’s Obamas fault all the way. He tried to let the House and Senate draft the bill so he couldn’t be pegged to any idea that may be unpopular. He thought he could play the “Yes it has flaws but we need to do something” card and not be blamed for the details that were unpopular. His lack of leadership let them run wild and their tactics in passing it made it worse. Obama did not live up to his campaign promises about bi-partisianship and openness. That along with the awful plan is what killed him.

  374. AlN says:

    You are mistaken. I am not an atheist. I am secular.
    Comment by Chekote — January 17, 2010 @ 9:33 pm

    Thanks for clearing that up! You know I usually defend you!

    By the way, folks, why are we all attacking France? If we are honest, we would have to admit that the French people were a LOT wiser in selecting their latest leader than the American people were. Nicholas Sarkozy is both more conservative and much more responsible than Barack Obama! I consider Sarkozy and (Germany’s) Merkel the REAL “leaders of the Free World”! If a major world crisis were to happen, most nations would turn to Sarkozy and Merkel to decide what to do. Obama would simply wet his pants and then get on the phone, calling Paris.

  375. AlN says:

    Actually, in all honesty, what Obama would really do (after wetting his pants) is call the United Nations to ask them what to do.

  376. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “He tried to let the House and Senate draft the bill so he couldn’t be pegged to any idea that may be unpopular.”

    He was trying to avoid the kind of defeat that faced Bill and Hillary Clinton. They wrote their own bill, no one in congress had any stake in it, and unsurprisingly they were just as willing to let it die in committee rather than go to bat for it when the public got upset about various details. Instead, Obama let it originate in congress, so the entire democrat party would have stake in it. So much so that it puts the whole party in a do or die, we’ve crossed the Rubicon situation. Problem was that individual congressmen were inevitably going to pad it with their own interests & projects and the swing members were well-positioned to get more than everyone else because their vote was worth that much more.

    If Bush had approached social security reform the same way, he might have gotten it through. He had decent majorities in the house and senate in 2005, after all. Instead he tried to go on a whistle stop promotion tour, failed to make a convincing case to the people, who then called their congressmen and said they didn’t want it. Dead in the water before he could even get started. Appealing to the public first is a bad strategy. It’s even worse to try and go around congress and get the people to support you over them. The public are spectators until election day, the members of congress are the pieces on the board and all that really matter in this game.

    Not saying this is a great thing, but that’s the way our system is.

  377. lisab says:

    hey, it is the moron in tx … soooooo … question

    do you thing a state has the right to force

    a.) an ER doctor
    b.) a hospital

    that for religious reasons refuses to perform an abortion

    to perform abortion services or leave the profession

  378. lisab says:

    Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI)… Curiously … mentioned Coakley repeatedly during his remarks to reporters, each time referring to her as “Marcia,” not “Martha.”

  379. lisab says:

    doh !!!

    marcia marcia marcia

  380. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “do you thing a state has the right to force

    a.) an ER doctor
    b.) a hospital

    that for religious reasons refuses to perform an abortion”

    No. But I’m sure you can twist it in such a way to show that I do.

    “t is the moron in tx”

    Sigh… This is why I don’t come here anymore.

  381. Diogenes says:

    You frequent conservative sites and can’t stand being trolled.

    I agree with the comments but Obama is still a bad president in terms of his ability to convince people. Reagan was the most effective communicator ever and won over people. Obama, despite all the moronic comparisons to Reagan, has done terribly and people are quite frankly sick of his speeches.

    The main problem with obamacare is that nobody cares at this point in time with the economy so bad. The democrats look dangerously out of touch by focusing so much on issues nobody cares about in a recession and with the terrorist threat still a clear and present danger.

    Social Security Reform was always dead. Pulling back the government has always been a failing endeavor in congress. The benefits may always be greater than the costs but the costs are so concentrated in key districts and senators that it is almost impossible to evade a filibuster. And Bush never had a supermajority or a real mandate for any of his domestic policies (other than his tax cuts). His poor communication skills also doomed him.

  382. Bubba Logic says:

    Does anyone think that a Brown win may force Obama to face the fact that the healthcare reform bill needs to be re-tought, and that maybe a little true bi-partisanship would go a long way toward saving his own numbers from tanking even more as we near the real gun fight in November.

    Imagine if Obama called Reid and Pelosi out saying this is not what I promised the American People, and if you don’t go back and produce a real reform bill with no under the table deals for anyone, I will veto it. He would then get a huge jump in his numbers, and he would take back the reigns of power from Reid and Pelosi.

    I think the American people are looking for real leadership, Obama had it, then he gave it away.

    Go Bama, Roll Tide

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