Where To Find Results Tonight
Tonight will be another fun-filled night of election results and analysis of what it all means.
The polls in the special State House election in Kentucky have closed. The official results can be found here.
In Florida, the polls in the primary races for the open Congressional seat for District 19 close at 7pm. The results for the Republican race can be found here. The results for the Democratic race can be found here.
The official results for the three special State House elections in Missouri can be found at these locations: District 27, District 57, District 62. Polls close in Missouri at 8pm.
Finally, the one most people will be watching, the primary races in Illinois. The polls close in Illinois at 8pm. The Illinois SOS website does not appear to have any page for election results currently posted. I am also sure The Chicago Tribune will eventually have a results page. I will update this soon.
I am sure local newspapers and other local websites will also have results, but these should get you started.
First
Looks like a low turnout in IL.
Who knows what that means?
Snow, Rdel. LOST is on tonight, so no young people will vote
Less than two hours to go here in IL!
But if the primary is anything like 4 years ago, they may get around to counting Cook and Lake counties around 11 pm.
It could be an extremely long night for many races, despite the low turnout.
IL SOS has nothing to do with elections.. (sorta a scary thought), so I would try the newspaper sites or the Associated Press wire for totals.
Also, if you people have cable, I am not sure if the WGN Superstation 9 o clock (Chicago time) news is available across the country, but they will be covering the election for a few hours starting then.
How about a HHR betting line:
Over/under Kirk’s percentage of the vote: 60%
Over/under margin of victory for Giannolous: 7%
IL-Gov (R): pick em
IL-Gov (D): pick em
I’ll say Kirk wins 57%. Giannoulias wins by 3. Very narrow victories by Quinn and Dillard… perhaps recount territory.
Who would be the weakest Democratic governor’s AND senatorial candidate in the general?
Is there any concensus on that?
Corey, lets root for alexi and quinn.
Alexi is very tainted, Quinn a doofus tax raiser
Phil, Quinn by far.
Alexi has money, but he is dirty, and his family Bank is tied deeply to Tony Resko
Yes, Quinn and Alexi, hoping they hold on! Although if Cheryle Robinson Jackson wins the Senate primary (which I suppose is possible) that could be even better for Mark Kirk.
Wish I could say that Todd Stroger will hang on in his primary for Cook County Board President, but that is unlikely to happen.
So, while I do not want it to happen for political reasons, I am perhaps hours away from seeing my incumbent Dem Gov and incumbent Dem County Board President get thrown out of office by the voters!
No IL Gov has been booted at the polls since 1976.
I really want to know who Blago voted for today. There had to have been television cameras around to see what he would have to say.
Why I’m speaking at Tea Party convention
By Sarah Palin
http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2010/02/column-why-im-speaking-at-tea-party-convention-.html
Hoffman would be tough to beat for Kirk.
He is a City Inspector, very clean and ethical, loved by the media.
Alexi is a scummy hack
Even though Chery Jackson would be the easier for Kirk, she would help the DEMS with the Black vote in the GE
Hoffman has weaknesses as a candidate too. For one thing, a lot of Democrats would absolutely refuse to support him.
That would Walking Dan Walker in 1976. He walked across the state to beat Paul Simon in an epic democratic primary in 1972.
I am cheering for the Mighty Quin and Alex G. I expect both to win in a low turnout.
I look for 60% for Kirk and maybe an upset in the GOV’s race. Just not sure who it will be.
I’m rooting for Quinn(D-Gov), Jackson(D-Sen), Kirk(R-SEN), and McKenna(R-Gov). Also, I am rooting for Ethan Hastert in the 14th, and Beth Coulson in the 10th.
Go Andrjeweski (still cannot spell his name)!
…really don’t want to see McKenna win here… but tomorrow (assuming there is a winner), it will be time to unite behind whomever it is across the ballot.
Been on all day… so excuse me pulling an A1N..
(posted overnight)
“46. With all due respect, KnightHawk, you miss the point.
So we should just punt 2012 & reward President Zero with 4 more years & the possibility of naming maybe 3 more SCOTUS justices?
Hope you never wind up in a foxhole with any soldiers. Good Lord.
Comment by BPL in Scottsdale”
—-
WTF are you talking about dear sir? I never ever suggested rolling over for the turd in the WH. But no I don’t think simply changing which turd we have in the WH is going to accomplish the course correction the nation needs, that person will need a congress and people that have a change of mind and that I find unlikely. (hense my we’re doomed anyway comment) Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.
Knight,
BPL claims I am a troll because I won’t Palin because she is supporting a person I consider to be detestable.
He is not a logical person so I am going to ignore him. At least with Ain, I could have a conversation.
Just finished voting. Went for Kirk and the Adam A. Dragged my wife to the polls and told her to do the same, but she blew it. “You said to vote for Kirk and there were two of them, so I voted for both.” So mark one up for Dillard also.
Kirk ‘10! For Both! (maybe)…
Goodnight all.
MD,
As I said earlier, Sarah’s endorsement both surprised and disappointed me. Perhaps because I’ve had to live in Ron Paul’s district and watch that fool spout his nonsense about how we somehow are responsible for 9-11.
If any of the stuff about her candidate is true, I’m very disappointed in my girl.
It was reported on the evening news that Adam A over-voted when he cast his ballot and had to re-do his vote.
“I won’t Palin ”
—
Did you mean you will not support her cause of the Paul endorsement your a ‘troll’ now? That’s mildly amusing, I’m sure I’ll join you in troll-hood soon cause I think the nation needs more then just rearranging the deck chairs.
Kirk will be well over 60% and Alexi G will win by 5%
So what went on in the world today, anything interesting md?
Federalism: One of the cornerstones of the conservative governance!
http://townhall.com/blog/g/3adc6e09-391e-4505-aaec-b407e4763633
“Tuesday, February 02, 2010
States Take Action Against Obamacare Mandates
Posted by: Meredith Jessup at 2:44 PM
Yesterday, the Virginia Senate became another state body to take action against purchasing mandates included in President Obama’s planned overhaul of the nation’s health care system.
The Democrat-majority-led Virginia Senate rebuffed their own party’s Washington plans in favor of a more state-centric federalist policy… and they’re not the only ones. AP reports:
The proposals would assert a state-based right for people to pay medical bills from their own pocketbooks and prohibit penalties against those who refuse to carry health insurance.
In many states, the proposals began as a backlash to Democratic health care plans pending in Congress. But instead of backing away after a Massachusetts election gave Senate Republicans the filibuster power to halt the health care legislation, many state lawmakers are ramping up their efforts with new enthusiasm.”
The other cornerstone principles that conservatives must consistentently back:
- Personal Freedom (ie people are capable of self-government and making their own choices)
- Equal Protection for Individual Rights/Liberties (ie natural rights as endowned all humanity from the creator)
- Limited/Constitutional Governance
The time to stop the “regressive” push for massive centralization of power in the form of an elite politcal and technocratic class is NOW!
- Free Market Econonomics
Ugh I hope Obama Endorser Dillard doesn’t win.
WEC – Good news, step in the right direction, hopefully there will be many more.
Per ABC News:
“Expanded Playing Field? Nearly 126 GOP House Candidates Have $100K-Plus”
As I have been saying, there are close to 120 Dem seats (open and incumbent) which are very vulnerable, given current generic polling.
More than 65 of these are extremely likely to flip.
Believe me now, or believe me later.
I would prefer to believe you later, but I look forward too such a day.
when do the polls close tonight?
Sam, I’d love to believe you. I really would. I’ve expanded the number of POSSIBLE competitive districts to 80 in the last two weeks. Twenty of those are reaches as far as winning them even in this political environment. That said, I had the number of competitive seats in the high 60s two weeks ago and the number keeps expanding. It’s moving your way but to get 65 unemployment has to stay around 10%. If that happens, yeah, 60 seats is at least possible.
Sam,
Oh, I believe. Yessssss, ayhhh beleeeeve. (Arms stretched upward; eyes shut).
#30 Evidently it has alot of grassroots political support behind it:
“Supporters held a rally at the Pennsylvania Capitol. And hearings on the proposed constitutional amendments were held in Georgia and Missouri. The Missouri hearing drew overflow crowds the day after Obama urged federal lawmakers during his State of the Union address to keep pressing to pass a health care bill. The Nebraska Legislature plans a hearing on a measure this coming week.
Supporters of the state measures portray them as a way of defending individual rights and state sovereignty, asserting that the federal government has no authority to tell states and their citizens to buy health insurance.
“I think the alarm bell has been rung,” said Clint Bolick, the constitutional litigation director at the Goldwater Institute in Phoenix, which helped craft an Arizona amendment on this November’s ballot that has been used as a model in other states.
“These amendments are a way to manifest grass roots opposition” to federal health insurance mandates, Bolick said. “They kind of have a life of their own at this point. So while some of the pressure may be off, I think that this movement has legs.”
Of course the socialist/statist/interventionist/Democrat click say that since the Federal government has unlimited powers, any ObamaCare like-law passed with an individual mandate would “trump” these state laws….
Methinks the pimps of statist class is wrong both Constitutionally and polically – they are in for a Crap Storm if they try…..
Plus, assuming CrappyCare wont pass this year, these law/state amendments will prevent individual states from becoming another ME, MA, NY etc that have these bad government run compulsary insurance schemes from further ruining our HC and insurance systems….
Keep up the heat on the commies is what I say!
Kristen how’s the speech coming?
15 walker later was appointed by his USNA classmate to the federal bench. he was convicted for some white collar crime and served time in the federal pen.
Geez – how does a candidate get beaten that bad in one county? Is it all black?
Scratch one Republican Kentucky House seat.
“It’s moving your way but to get 65 unemployment has to stay around 10%. If that happens, yeah, 60 seats is at least possible.”
As time passes, if unemployment stays at 10%, the mood of the voters will keep deteriorating. The voter mood is not going to remain constant.
If unemployment remains at 10% through July-August, I’ll guarantee 90-seat loss.
Democrat wins in KY-24 3001 to 2518 with 21% voter turnout.
Phil,
That seat will flip back in November. The Rs had a badly outspent novice candidate. He’s being challenged for the nomination in the May primary by a well connected city Councilman. Mills will be State Rep for about 8 months
41 – What you mean voters will not accept 9-10% unemployment as the new baseline? Someone should let the WH know this, seems it might throw a wrinkle into their plans.
talk about your friends & family effect. The candidates won like 80% of the vote in their respective home counties
Knight – 27
I was too busy working to notice.
I did just see that Obama slammed Vegas again. He must really hate Harry Reid.
The KY house seat has weird results. One county has the R winning 413 to 46 and the other has the D winning 2611 to 333. However this same county (Marion) that is now 9 to 1 Dem was 50-47 McCain…..
Something screwy here….
Roger Md, same here, heading out for a bit catch yah ltr.
What races are we talking about on this thread and should I pay attention? Just waiting for the Kirk nomination. He is my least favorite GOP candidate but he is better than every Dem
I can’t say the same for the Paul family.
It has to deal with local candidates….Dems are much more likely and usually do get elected on the local level in KY and a lot of other southern states.
The other 2 counties are roughly showing the R DOING BETTER than McCain. Maybe the Dem is a local icon but if if was the R I would be taking a hard look at Marion’s results.
44-The whole WH is a group of motley fools who have no experience and no clue. About anything.
Add in the bumbling idiots Pelosi and Reid, you have a veritable Confederacy of Dunces.
Can’t handle the economy, can’t handle jobs, can’t handle healthcare, can’t handle terrorists, Gitmo still open. All with supermajorities in Congress and WH control, with constant as*-cover from media, and complete control over financial, entertainment, automotive and academia industries.
No wonder these morons are in such trouble, as evidenced by the blowouts in VA (24-point turnaround from 2008), NJ (20-point turnaround) and MA (31-point turnaround).
Local politics don’t run in the same rythym as national, statewide or congressional politics. A completely different animal.
50. Yeah that’s true but I find it hard to believe a county that voted for McCain went 9 to 1 Democratic…I think there is a mistake.
Maybe the D saved the county single handedly by sticking his finger in a breaking dam….let’s see.
I swear that the following is true. Taken directly from my sister’s FB page. She has it right on the top:
Dearest Obama, tax cuts for businesses won’t help us now, tax the corporations, TAX THE RICH ALREADY!
Yes, she actually believes that Obama is being too nice to businesses. I am going to use this the next time she comes to her “rich” brother for money.
37 — Knighthawk.
Way to make me feel guilty!
Yes, I’m writing. All day. I’m more worried about delivery than prose. Oh, I wish I could write something to you here, but its far too public. Email me?
k
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/FL_Page_0202.html?SITE=FLLAUELN&SECTION=POLITICS
Quicker Florida results
2008 Results Today
Casey R 78 D 20 R 84 D 16
Pulaski R 77 D 21 R 90 D 10
Marion R 50 D 47 R 11 D 89
?????
Hometown votes in KY -friends and family factors.
Duetch apparently will win 80% of the vote in FL-19 per Broward party blog
and polls are closed in IL?
20 – Oh darn, MD is gonna ignore me. Can I make it thru the night w/out killing myself?
Here’s some logic for you:
MD – You cannot tell me your support for Sarah Palin was so fragile that you would dump her (Did she not accept your invite to dinner or soemthing?) for endorsing, with slight reservations, a guy you have never met, nor HEARD OR READ FOR YOURSELF any racist-blah-blah-blah comments from, without hearing the reasons for which she made the endorsement. if so, you will be disappointed by every politicain for the rest of your life. No one will appease you 100%.
Hope your sig-other knows how weak-kneed your support can be. If so, he/she should just turn in the keys to your crib right now.
But enjoy your confabs w/AIN – he needs the company.
Illinois election results can be found here:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_county/IL_Page_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
BPL,
I don’t support people who support the Paul family who I detest.
As for everything else you said, it is typical of someone like you to hve internet muscles.
I don’t have to respond in kind. How about we measure wallets and bank accounts? Based on your posts, I am think 9 to 1 in my favor.
Also, I know how to do very simple google searches and I can get enough information on the Paul family from varied sources within 20 minutes to realize that I want nothing to do with them.
These are simpler without the counties:
Governor: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Senate: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_US_Senate_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
“thinking” 9 to 1. Just my guess.
MD,
I’m supporting Rand and I actually voted for Ron in the 08 primary (as a protest).
If Rand wins the election will you STILL be mad at Sarah?
63 – 9 to 1? Did you make your fortune performing gay porn? Sorry, I don’t roll that way.
Nice 5th grade argument.
Agreed with Jason. These results seem to be a little off. 1900 family members? Must be a tight knit community.
Any chance that they placed the 1900 votes from Marion County in the wrong column?
Nice links Brandon. Thanks
obama may have some big problems in IL
it seems we may not be willing to take the gitmo prisoners after all
the kossians will have a fit if obama renege on gitmo
Lets see. As Republicans we want to see Quinn and Alexi win out?
They are the weakest in the general, right?
BPL,
Like my grandpop always said,
“It is mind over matter. I don’t mind and you don’t matter”.
On that note, you no longer exist in my world so take all the shots you want. There will be no response from me.
Just,
I am not angry with Sarah just extremely disappointed. Either she does not care about the Paul’s extremist positions or she and/or her staff don’t know how to do google searches. Neither is acceptable.
Definitely Quinn, and I think either Alexi or Cheryle Jackson for Senate. Basically, not Hoffman.
How go things, guys?
I think Hoffman will win Brandon. I wonder what Corey thinks?
Things go well Wes.
I hope you don’t mind, MD, but I had to defend you on the the thread bwelow against all the guys who were attacking you because you feel you can no longer support Sarah Palin.
Looks like slow count tonight. Still only a few hundred votes counted so far.
“If Rand wins the election will you STILL be mad at Sarah?”
If he wins which I doubt he will be a fringe legislator like his father, losing a lot of votes 99 to 1 with kooky economic proposals. He will join the Dems in trying to gut the military and pull out of Afghanistan and cut off aid to Israel and coddle Hamas and Iran and North Korea. He will support freeing the Guantanamo terrorists and will try to eliminate the Patriot Act and FISA.
Rand Paul is not a Republican.
If he does win, Jason, then we can only hope he’s not the same as his father.
Wes,
I didn’t read it but thanks. Look, I am entitled to my opinion. I have been a huge supporter but I just can’t support the Pauls even indirectly.
They can throw all the tizzy fits they want. It doesn’t matter.
I’m here, standing by for the results. Good news on the RAS generic ballot at 45-38.
Lord, Jason. You are describing my congressman. What a nightmare this guy sounds like. Please tell me you are exagerating.
Wes,
He has done nothing to distance himself from his anti-semetic father.
Phil,
Looks like the concern over he RAS generic ballot didn’t pan out this week…..whew.
MD and Knighthawk,
Enjoy the wrath of BPL. Warning: Don’t bother trying to have a rational debate with him. If he disagrees with you, he just insults, swears, and “screams” at you. If you ask him a pointed question that he can’t answer, he ignores it — and goes back to the insults. I may have annoyed you in the past, but I’ve always treated you with respect — even when we’ve disagreed.
What was the concern over the generic ballot?
That’s how I feel, MD. I’ve always been somewhat cool toward Palin, but I simply can’t see what compelled her to support Rand Paul. He may yet win and prove to be different from his father, but that’s far from clear at this point.
78. This is not a minor matter like forgetting what book you read or saying you can see Russia from your home, I defended Sarah tooth and nail from Dems and Chekote making a big deal out of ambush interviews and figures of speech. But endorsing Rand Paul is a major blunder, she will never recover my support.
“I am not angry with Sarah just extremely disappointed. Either she does not care about the Paul’s extremist positions or she and/or her staff don’t know how to do google searches. Neither is acceptable.”
Or the 3rd option is you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about! You’re a useful idiot for the anti-Palin drones.
But she’ll be the next prez in spite of you, not defeated because of you.
I know you’ll respond, because I’m in your head & twerps like you need to have the last word.
Looks like it’s going to be a long night. Very tight on both Governor’s races so far.
BPL hasn’t yet directed his ire toward me, AIN, but I have noticed there are times he responds condescendingly to those he disagree with.
“Lord, Jason. You are describing my congressman.”
I was describing what Rand Paul would do, but your are right, it’s exactly what Ron Paul does.
Marv, yeah, I thought with Obama’s bump from the speech it would be a lot closer. This is a good sign. A further indication what deep trouble Pelosi and company are in.
“…useful idiot for the anti-Palin drones.”
Ay Dios Mio…I can’t believe I’m actually reading a statement like that directed toward MD of all people on this blog. BPL, with that statement you have lost all credibility. No one can disagree with you apparently and not be an absolute moron in your eyes. That is really, really sad.
Example: BPL, how about commenting on the following letter from JD Hayworth’s own pen:
http://www.jdhayworth.com/blog/jds-web-blog/a-post-election-letter-to-the-new-president/
Note:
(1) There can be no denying that Hayworth is a “birther” from this letter.
(2) Really classy for JD to offer Obama condolences on the recent death of his grandmother — and then in the same paragraph, he asks Barack to produce his birth certificate.
(3) Wow, that John McCain sure is bad! So bad that JD recommends him for US Secretary of State.
Comments?
3…2….1….. (I know, I’m an ignorant slut — now can you actually answer these questions?)
Phil, did you ever think the Obama “bump” might have been nothing but statistical noise?
Jason,I was hoping Rand wasn’t Ron Paul. Sounds like that are alike.
That is horrible news to me.
#88 Kristen,
We thought that the RAS generic ballot might tighten up quite a bit this week, just like Obama’s approval rating in RAS. It turns out not to have been the case. Furthermore, Frank, over at RP, says that there was a huge outlier among men Sunday night which is artificially holding up Obama’s overall approval number. It won’t be back to normal (about 46-47 approval) until Thursday at the earliest.
Tina gave us option code 2.111 for such people, AIN.
Hey, Marv…How go things?
BPL hasn’t yet directed his ire toward me, AIN, but I have noticed there are times he responds condescendingly to those he disagree with.
Comment by Wes — February 2, 2010 @ 8:26 pm
“there are times”??????? I recommend this for the understatement of the year!
Anti-Palin drones…hahahahha
I probably have a thousand posts defending Palin on this blog….but endorsing a racist anti-semitic anti-war truther like Rand Paul is way over the line….
Wes, no but I always felt it would be temporary and still do. PPP found no bump whatsoever so who knows.
Well, whoever called Kirk at 57% earlier got the first precinct right.
What amazes me more about that statement, AIN, is that I managed somehow not to put an “s” at the end of “disagree.” It makes me look like an uneducated rube. Ah, well…
Wes,
What does 2.111 mean? And why is it called 2.111?
I think it’s pretty clear it was transitory noise, Phil.
Can anyone give me the update on Kentucky? I find those results to be shocking and outrageous. I know it’s just a House seat changing the balance of power from Dems 65-35 to Dems 66-34. But I thought this was a safe GOP seat!
Still mystified by those KY Marion Co. results…I wonder if there is any confirmation and whether the R conceded…
Wes,
Don’t sweat what that moron says about me. How many times did I defend Sarah on this blog? Hundreds. However, the Paul’s are a line in the sand with me. It is a matter of principal. As a conservative, I can’t trust Sarah Palin if she is going to put her trust in a Paul. That does not mean that I hate her or will disparage her like Chek does. No, I want do that. I just won’t support her for POTUS. Since I am only 1 vote in 120 million, why anyone would get upset over that, I am not sure.
I still agree with Palin on 95% of the issues.
Well, I felt better about the bottom line RAS numbers when the indies weren’t moving.
It’s a code Tina invented, AIN. It means when a certain poster begins commenting on here, he’s flagged as someone an offended person just scrolls past as opposed to reading what he says. Why she calls it 2.111 I have no clue.
It makes me look like an uneducated rube. Ah, well…
Comment by Wes — February 2, 2010 @ 8:32 pm
Not really, but LOL! I often type so fast that I make typo errors all over the place. Plus, my HHR window has this irritating problem where I can’t see the first word in every line (unless I purposely go look at them).
Leave BPL alone. He is my friend.
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y146/vlad3060/sig2.jpg
110. Marion Co. results are hard to fathom considering the other 2 counties where the R actually did better than McCain….
116. Sure, twink.
The Marion County results are strange. The guy must have a very large family in his home county.
Well, MD, there are some Palin supporters on here who can brook no dissent with her. There are others, like Mark Cali for instance, who don’t habitually attack and insult those who disagree with them. It all depends on the person apparently.
117 – Jason, I just don’t believe a Dem candidate could have gotten 1900, or let’s just say, half of that, 950 family members, to come out and vote for him, who previously voted R?
“I still agree with Palin on 95% of the issues.”
Me too. That’s why her support for someone with such divergent views is hard to digest.
This has to be one of the slowest counts ever. Wake up Illinois.
So, what, did the GOP lose a Kentucky State House seat?
121. Yeah, unless the guy is Mother Teresa incarnate in the county I think there is a mistake.
I’m still looking forward to seeing Palin in person on Sunday. I’m driving 60 mile across Houston to do it. Doesn’t mean I’m happy about the Paul endorsement however. I’m not.
“This has to be one of the slowest counts ever. Wake up Illinois.”
It can be slippery throwing ballot boxes in the Chicago River….
What’s especially weird is that BPL has even criticized me about Sarah Palin. I guarantee you that no one on this board has been behind Sarah for a longer time! I cried literal tears when she was introduced by McCain in Dayton. Shaking her hand in Canton, Ohio was a thrill of my lifetime.
But still, I’m very, very disappointed in her, and I’m still holding out hope that she’ll see the error of this endorsement .. and retract it.
Jason,
I agree. It defies explantion.
104 – jason (small j) – if Rand Paul is as bad a s y’all claim, with suspect sources I might add, then this will be easily revealed by the very clever Grayson team or in the GE. & Sarah Palin will bottom-out her support for any prez run.
I believe credibility goes to the ‘Cuda before people such as yourselves. As much as she’s accomplished in 45 years, she has “scoreboard over all of you, including the gay-porn millionaire.
Equipment malfunction in Marion County, maybe? Were they using the new voting machines from NY-23?
Yeah Phil, I still admire Palin and her remarkably successful life story, but politically she has lost her allure to me.
I wonder exactly why Palin endorsed Paul, Phil. It’s fine to endorse people one disagree with, but Paul seems to have nothing in common with Palin but a letter representing party affiliation.
Thanks, Marv. Didn’t know about Ras’s generic number. Interesting about the men’s outlier.
I usually check RP daily to get Frank’s great insight into Ras’s data … but this has been an exceptionally busy week.
regarding rand paul
i have no idea about any of his positions, but i think you should not blame him for the sins of the father.
I can’t explain it Wes. I’m baffled.
What the hell was post 130 supposed to mean? It made absolutely no sense.
11% in:
Alexi 37%
Hoffman 30%
Kirk 60%
Hughes 19%
Quinn 54%
Hynes 46%
McKenna 27%
Andrzejewski 20%
Ryan 20%
I also still love the Palin story. I just have to question her judgement now. Like Ain, I hope she recants her endorsement but I don’t think she will.
Lisa, the Bible itself says the sins of the father will be visited unto his sons till the seventh generation. I’m sure David Duke’s son isn’t a Klan Grand Wizard, but would Sarah Palin endorse him for office if he ever ran for anything?
I believe credibility goes to the ‘Cuda before people such as yourselves.
Comment by BPL in Scottsdale — February 2, 2010 @ 8:39 pm
Funny, BPL, how you have so much confidence in Sarah’s credibility in this endorsement — but NOT in her endorsement in your own Arizona. Be consistent, dude!
Maybe I can talk her into it Sunday MD. There won’t be but 15K of us there. LOL
If Rand renounced his father’s positions, then I would reconsider. However, all evidence states that he holds the same general views.
nice
http://independenteyesonamerica.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/pres-obamas-aunt-zeituni-polly-onyango.jpg
Didn’t McKenna at one time say he was going to challenge Kirk? Am I thinking of the right guy?
I was never strongly enamored of Sarah Palin, but she does have a worthwhile life story. I think she has a solid future in political activism, but I’m unsure if she’ll ever participate in politics as a candidate for office again.
Please Please don’t let him be like his pop!
Phil,
LOL! No one can turn out a crowd like Palin. That is not going to change anytime soon. Most don’t follow politics as nearly as closely as those of us on the board.
What the hell was post 130 supposed to mean? It made absolutely no sense.
Comment by Wes — February 2, 2010 @ 8:42 pm
It’s called, “Don’t answer questions, just toss vulgar insults”. It’s typical liberal behavior.
We may actually win FL-19 in the General. It looks like a nasty primary for the Dems (and a unified support behind the GOP) and the district is Palm Beach County and North Broward (90 percent white/affluent). Despite being D+16 or something, we may actually have a shot at winning this one.
137 – Wes, gay-porn millionaire is MD, who claims his wealth exceeds mine by a 9-1 ratio. Is that the confusion?
Wes,
Sigh! BPL makes me miss your girly pictures.
Congratulations, World, you win!
I don’t know, MD. Der Slickmeister could turn out some major crowds in his time.
“the sins of the father will be visited unto his sons till the seventh generation”
that is ery old testament … i am a new testament kind of girl
True but I have never seen anything like Palin. People love her or hate her.
Well, I don’t generally post those unless Eph Rove or Knighthawk is on here, AIN, so you’ll have to wait if you want to look at those pics any time soon.
143 — totally agree
“If Rand renounced his father’s positions”
would you do that to you father?
i think it is best to let him rise or fall on his own. we did not blame jfk for his father after all.
156 — lol
15.9% Precincts Reporting
Andy McKenna 9,759 (26.7%)
Jim Ryan 7,456 (20.4%)
Kirk Dillard 7,047 (19.3%)
Adam Andrzejewski 6,364 (17.4%)
Bill Brady 2,063 (5.6%)
16% in:
Alexi 38%
Hoffman 33%
Kirk 65%
Hughes 18%
Quinn 53%
Hynes 47%
McKenna 28%
Ryan 21%
Dillard 19%
There are a lot of people who have the love/hate dichotomy going, MD. Palin can redeem herself and recover from this. Honestly I don’t really know if she has the interest in running for office again to worry about it though.
Ain,
While I am more in alignment with JD, common sense tells me that McCain should easily win his primary. A semi-strong showing by JD gets him back in the game for future races.
Brandon and Tommy, do you know if these districts being counted are in Chicago or outside the city? The Quinn and Giannoulias numbers are a little too close for comfort.
Her judgment is in question considering her endorsement of Rube Paul, Jr.
If this holds up, Brandon, then the GOP may be getting the candidates it wnats and needs on both sides of the ticket.
#163 which is probably why he is RUNNING- to get back into the political eye of voters.
He knows he won’t beat McCain.
But giving him a run for some of his money makes him appealing.
somewhere.
Brandon: link to the results? Would like to follow them.
Wes,
Maybe she does not. I am really not sure. I was certain that she did want to run for office but maybe I was wrong.
Hi, Tinababe. How go things? By the way, Tina, I think AIN has a question for you.
Giannoulias was BEATING Kirk wasn’t he in the general election polling?
Gov: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Sen: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_US_Senate_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Wes, I agree with you on 162, and am praying 166 holds for us.
It depended on what poll you were looking at, Finn. It was always close except in one PPP poll–registered voters, so go figure–but many had Kirk ahead or tied against the G Man.
Apparently, it’s all from Cook
Almost all from Cook I mean….
Thanks, Mark.
BPL,
Palin is coming to Arizona on April 24th.
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/02/01/daily15.html
Tightening up a bit, Alexi up 4 with 22% in.
By the way, all of you, I’m hoping if Paul does win the primary and the general, he will be as far from his father ideologically as possible. I’m seriously hoping he surprises us.
Tina,
How goes it?
OK – have to watch friggin Lost now. I actually hate the show but after so much time, I feel like I have almost no choice. My wife feels the same way.
Okay, Lost is on now, I’m out for the night, I’ll be back later.
Later, MD. Just think how hot E. L. is while you’re watching. That should make it easier on you.
24.2% Precincts Reporting
McKenna 28.3%
Ryan 20.7%
Dillard 18.4%
Andrzejewski 15.9%
Brady 6.4%
Later, Brandon.
She is hot but is hotter off the show!
Tommy, if this is Cook, then it will tighten for Giannoulias and Quinn (not a good thing for us). Hopefully, they squeak through with a win.
True enough, MD.
141 “Funny, BPL, how you have so much confidence in Sarah’s credibility in this endorsement — but NOT in her endorsement in your own Arizona. Be consistent, dude!”
AIN, you ignorant slut: I never said that Sarah Palin’s endorsement of McCain, in my own backyard no less, loses her one OUNCE of credibility. In fact, I’m smart enough to figure out why she’s doing so. Are you? Sorry, dumb question.
I just won’t let her endorsement of the candidate I oppose cloud my judgement about her Presidency prospects. Y’all are so frigid that you can’t even THINK, rather than react, about why she makes these endorsements. You don’t see the forest from the trees.
Endorsing the guy who gave her the biggest break of her live is not a disqualifier for me. But supporting the SON, of L Ron Paul is the nail in her political coffin? I think not. Your support, if there to begin with, was just a house of cards ready to fall & you chose this as the excuse.
I am excited to see the post-primary polling.
Then a 2nd round of polling maybe 2 weeks later.
If we notice a trend of consolidation by Republicans and Indys around Kirk, he probably has locked it up.
It depends on the turnout downstate, Mark. From what I’ve heard turnout all over the state was pretty light. That should be a plus for the G Man.
Greetings from the Kirk party. Very optimistic. Former gov Edgar is here. That’s a good sign
Wish Gov Edgar the best from all of us, Ad.
16% reported
KIRK 65%
HUGHES 18%
On a side note: I see DeVore is failing horribly to raise any money or get any traction in CA. Good, I say. Al Salvi failed in Illinois. Putting his siamese twin up in Cali will be just as horrible a mistake.
RE Policy 2.111 – it was a joke about a government policy # – used to ignore trolls, like Chekote.
Wes – DeVore is a joke. I told him early on in his campaign not to go negative so early and he himself turned off his base and painted himself in a corner. He has no charisma and is now trying to compare himself to Scott Brown. It’s a trainwreck, really.
I’m rooting for Campbell or Carly. They at least present themselves as serious candidates.
178 – Thanks Tommy_Boy. I saw that. She’ll be here manrch 26-27 also.
#102 Wes
I’m doing fine tonight. How about you?
However, give the Brown victory (WHY? IS HE NOT SEATED YET MITCHIE?) I prefer not to battle those on my side.
wes; tHERE WAS AN Al Salvi sighting on TV tonight
Okay, before I go, here is a great map for tonight’s results:
http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/IL
Also, one other thing. I’m worried about Kirk’s old district, CD-10. If Beth Coulson doesn’t win the primary, I think it will make it difficult for us to hold the seat in the fall.
#195
and Poizners meltdown yesterday screws him out
He seriously needs to drop out
Let the GOP consolidate behind Whitman for governor.
As for the Senate race, Campbell and Fiorina are in a lock to the finish line. Fiorina has the dough. But Campbell has the mo’mentum. Not to mention he’s a social liberal but a FiCon to the highest order- the kind of person who could very well win in California
Barring a major dropoff in support, I’m willing to bet Kirk wins the Senate prmary big. that sets him up with a solid base of support to take on the Dem nominee.
Anyway off to Bingo night, take care gang.
I’m doing well, Marv.
No need to pay attention to the MO races. 2 safe D and one safe R. One of the safe D already counted 65-35 D, other safe D there is no R running and it is St. Louis City, Safe R seat is in very conservative SW, MO (looks like Branson area or close from the map I saw)
Was he wearing a dunce cap, Red? Seriously how can someone blow a winnable race against someone like the Personification of Evil Itself, Dick Durbin, as badly as Salvi did?
With 27% (Senate) IL counted:
323,694 democratic votes
91,733 republican votes
Ratio: 3.53 to 1.
At the end of counting it should be roughly 2:1, if past precedent holds.
If there is to be a major GOP wave in this state, we should be seeing it in voter turnout today.
Must be a lot of Cook county coming in indeed.
I would say nothing is sure at this point except for Kirk as R-nominee for the Senate.
26.5% Precincts Reporting
McKenna 24,308 (25.5%)
Ryan 18,819 (19.8%)
Dillard 18,451 (19.4%)
Andrzejewski 14,430 (15.2%)
Brady 9,937 (10.4%)
Proft 8,093 (9.0%)
It would take a lot for anyone to catch up to mcKenna at this point, Tommy.
Is McKenna going to be OK as our nominee? I missed the previous commentary on him.
There doesn’t really seem to be a concensus as to who would be the best candidate for Governor, Marv, so flip a coin, I guess.
Wes,
Agreed at this point. It appears as if everyone split the late deciders. For McKenna to have lost, the undecideds needed to break one way.
Wes,
However, I’m reading that Brady the best chance because of his performance in southern and western illinois (where most of the vote is for Republicans apparently).
I say, anyone but Dillard (who endorsed Obama)
If there is to be a major GOP wave in this state, we should be seeing it in voter turnout today.
…..
Er, you might want to check the MA primary results before blindly typing.
Kirk needs to start running for the Senate as soon as he’s declared the winner. It’s going to be a long nine months.
88% of the vote in so far is Cook.
All three of the Dem senatorial candidate are from Chicago BTW.
It wouldn’t be as fun then to bat down his stupidity, would it, Howie?
Phil, I’m wondering if the fatc that the eventual Dem nominee will be a white man who beat a black woman running for a Senate seat last held by two black men might not hurt the Dems in the fall.
You got me there, Wes.
And he does own stupidity.
At least the vile Andy Martin will be nowhere near the GOP Senate nod.
And how, Howie.
McKenna is dropping as downstate comes in….
33.1% Precincts Reporting
McKenna 24.8%
Dillard 19.4%
Ryan 19.2%
Andrzejewski 15.2%
Brady 11.1%
Proft 9.0%
I’d say Cheryl Jackson is done if she is this far behind with mostly Cook CO in.
She never really had a chance anyway, Brent. Didn’t you know the Senate’s an old white man’s club?
Kirk raised 5mm so far. He is going to be a juggernaut. Illinois is not going to be close in Nov folks. The lack of turnout in the dem race tells you everything
Ugh! My girlfriend’s playing Godsmack. I’d rather hear my daughter start crying than listen to that garbage.
Could be Wes. What is going to hurt anyway is no Obama on the ballot. Black vote as a percentage of the overall electorate will be well down from 08.
Of course this is gonna kill black voting percentages everywhere – particularly in the South.
I hope you’re right, Ad.
Godsmack has a few good tunes, Wes.
I understand that, Phil. I was thinking blacks could be miffed the Dems chose a white man over a black woman for a Senate seat held by a black person for all but six of the last seventeen years.
Please Dear God, not Dillard!!!
Wes,
I still say that Jack Bauer is going soft. He has no business showing any compassion whatsoever for Renee during the course of the mission. Maybe later.
I never could get into their music, Howie. I guess having to endure them is what I get for dating a woman 8 years younger than I am though. Josie’s beautiful, but she really listens to some weird shit.
234 – I share that sentiment.
I have a different take, Marv. I think Renee represents Jack’s attempt to establish a relationship with a woman after so many heartbreaks. I’ve been there before. Sometimes the guy goes for a flawed girl because he thinks he can pull her out of her self-destructive ways–only to find out he can’t.
That said, Marv, Katee Sackhoff adds absolutely nothing to the storyline–at least so far.
Really disappointed with the results in CD-10.
What happened, Brandon?
The more electable candidate is going to lose the primary, and it’s Kirk’s old district which was going to be a tough hold to begin with.
Wes,
The point is that Bauer should either be
“interrogating” terrorists or killing them. We can go over and watch “Lost” if we are looking for some kind of love story.
Close race in IL 14 between Hastert and Holtgren (only 9% in)
Brandon is watching “Lost”.
close elections????
I’m rooting for Hastert in that race, as I think he’d be able to win it, based somewhat off of good name recognition.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/02/murtha-reportedly-icu-surgery/?test=latestnews
Wes: Salvi should be wearing the dunce cap. McKenna down to 24% Kirk down to 60%
Ethan Hastert (J Dennys) kid is struggling in IL-14. That is a house seat the GOP is looking to take back this year. Right now he is up 51-49
IL-10: Coulsen trails 37-28. That may be the 1 house seat we lose this year
I agree, Marv. Still, if all Bauer does is kill people, then he loses a bit of his humanity. Giving him some reason to yearn for human contact–something 24 has done since Season One–makes him a more realistic character. Also, his is never a traditional romance. He never gets a happily ever after ending, and quite often the women he displays affection for don’t survive. I can live with the occasional touch of intimacy in Bauer just as long as the producers don’t go all soap opera on us.
Brandon, I agree. But if Seals wins, who does not live in the district, and is already two time loser, wins the DEM nod. Dold will make this close.
Hamos is much tougher to beat in the GE
Brady is coming on really strong…
I’m rooting for Hastert as well Brandon. IL-14 is a red district and Foster is a hack
Hultgren is good too in the IL 14, he will beat Foster also
#250 Wes,
OK, just as long as the kiss lasts no more than
2.5 seconds……tops.
Oh, cool. Now my girlfriend’s turned on some Z Z Top. (Who would have ever thought a 23-year-old girl would listen to Z Z Top?) It’s a lot bette rthan that God-awful Godsmack she was just playing.
Hey, Marv, notice last season when we thought Jack and Renee were about to kiss, she slapped him. That tells me the producers aren’t willing to go overboard on the romance although they’ll let it be a strong subplot.
Brandon, how does Quinn look? If he wins, along with Alexi we are in great shape in the Fall
Quinn is a dead duck if he wins the nomination. His approval ratings are horrendous.
#256
Mine listens to lady gaga.
so often I find myself dancing to her in my sleep.
Like Rush Limbaugh.
Mind you I play the Talking Heads until her eardrums are close to rupturing, so its all even
Quinn is hanging on by a thread
Last report anyone gave us, Quinn was up although his margin dipped a bit as the votes moved away from Cook County, Jason.
Wes,
We need to find a way to get Joel Surnow to go back and clean out some of the lib writers. They should get back to pleasing their original core audience.
Mine likes that ridiculous Pokerface song, Finn.
Agreed, Marv. They really changed focus after Surnow so now what was the core of the story is looked at from the periphery rather than the middle of the action.
Brady surge
48.2% Precincts Reporting
McKenna 21.5%
Dillard 19.2%
Ryan 17.2%
Brady 17.2%
Andrzejewski 15.5%
Proft 8.0%
Anyway, guys, I’m going to have a few drinks. I’ll be back later. Have a good night, everyone!!!!
Dold has good anti tax message, in the Wealthiest part of the state.
We need Seals to beat Hamos
Brady surge is gone.
Anyone btw actually want to stick their neck out to help a fellow conservative in his artistic pursuits?
I am doing land art and installation work, I need someone who lives in the NORTHEAST-
NY, PA, MD, DE, NJ for a site-specific work.
It’s called SUBSIDY.
Basically its an elaborate land art installation-
A Washington Palm tree planted in a place that it naturally would not grow. One that requires a rather elaborate means of keeping it warm and alive during the harsh winter (also provided by me)
Much like the near-insane projects of windfarms in states like Minnesota, or subsidizing crops for ethanol.
The total cost to you would be…um…having a palm tree growing in your back/front yard.
Marv, I gave up on “24″
Cherry Jones is a huge marxist and Lesbian in real life
there’s definitely something wrong w/ the KY numbers. HD-24. this is not your “typical” southern democrat district (ie. GOP national elections, but Dem locally); it’s one of the most GOP parts of the state all around — if you look at the 3 counties combined, went 73% mcCain; in 1996 was 59 Dole – 32 Clinton; in 1976 57% Ford – 43 Carter; even 1964, Johnson won over Goldwater by only 50.1 to 49.9. either the Dem. is some sort of local hero, or (more likely) the numbers are screwy .. does anybody have more info. ? maybe, all politics is local, but this result is ridiculous.
Brandon, Coulson ran a bad campaign. She voted for tax Raises in the IL state House, and was trashed by Dold.
Are only chance is if Seals beats Hamos
Senior cong. officials say that Rep. John Murtha’s condition is grave. Lots of sad Dems tonight on the Hill.
The AP has called it for Kirk.
Murtha will still win in November.
64% in
Quinn 51.4
Hynes 48.6
I did not care for Murtha politically Phil, but he was a Vietnam Vet. I hope he is making Peace with his Maker
Hang on Quinn
272, that sounds fishy. You think the numbers may have been reversed and incorrectly awarded to the Dem?
Which side?
63%
Alexi 38%
Hoffman 35%
The numbers are screwy but that was a Democratic County.
Does Illinois have runoffs in the primaries?
Or does the highest plurality determine who gets the nomination?
68%
Quinn 51
Hynes 49
no runoffs
Jerry the Iceman Butler won again
For your love??
Wow – McKenna and Dillard are neck and neck,
No Runoffs Harry
Terry Mills website and I quote: “a conservative and independent voice in Frankfort.” He’s the Democrat that just ‘won’ in KY.
http://www.terrymills.org/
Wow, so you can get 20% of your party’s vote and get the nomination?
Doesn’t that sometimes get fringe candidates the nomination?
Now Brady is coming on! A 3 way race.
Brady is only 6000 votes behind with
downstate coming in… of these I hope
Brady wins… i don’t care for McKenna or
Dillard.
Quinn’s lead seems to be melting down state.
Hang on Quinni
Wow, that GOP governor primary in IL is tight between Dillard and McKenna. Going to be a nailbiter
This is insane. Absolutely nuts. Anyone but Dillard please!
Brady is a sure GE loser. Way too right wing.
Was the KY House Seat a loss or a DEM Hold
Really close in the GOP GOV primary.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
BREAKING: Former Senator Coats will challenge Evan Bayh.
http://howeypolitics.com/m/ArticleDisplay.aspx?articleid=5581§ionid=39
73.2% Precincts Reporting
McKenna 20.4%
Dillard 19.6%
Brady 19.3%
Ryan 16.9%
Andrzejewski 14.8%
Proft 8.0%
MD,
What’s the 411 on Dillard?
McKenna up 3K+ on Dillard and 5K+ on Brady. Very, very tight.
Brandon, I KNEW IT!!!!!!!
COATS WILL BEAT BAYH Praise the lord
Giannoulias will the dem nominee for us senate.
30 thousand votes ahead… not enough left
to lose
Dan Coats is a particularly strong candidate!! The adults are beginning to assert themselves.
#298 — Whoa…talk about something out of left field. That’s a pretty strong and seasoned candidate to take on Bayh. Good rebound for the GOP after losing out on getting Pence to run.
Marv,
Dillard supported Obama. Need I say more?
Alexi is what we want. He is tainted
Once Kirk runs ads he will crush him.
Brady has now passed Dillard into second place! This is exciting.
only 10K for Quinn now
top 3 republican governor candidates all at
20 percent now.
Coats is very popular, better than Pence.
I think Bayh may retire
Did Coats retire or was he defeated?
MD, If you know IL, Brady is a great guy, but will lose the GE.
Did Coats retire or was he defeated?
Comment by Phil — February 2, 2010 @ 10:28 pm
he retired
Coats retired in 1998, Bayh won his seat.
WHY did Coats retire??
Well Coats is a surprise and I believe it since the source is on record and named.
Yep, he can beat Byah.
I wonder if Coats and Pence had a conversation?
Coats was up for re-election in 1998 when he decided to retire, citing the pressures of constant fundraising
I hope Dillard loses.
Bayh may still win but he aint a happy camper tonight.
316- Bayh declared and Coats quit rather than lose to him. Now the tables have turned.
Where does Illinois get all these anti-gun republicans? They really are the stupid state.
JT,
I am no expert on IL politics so I will take your word for it. I really can’t believe how this is turning out. A 3 way tie. Only 800 votes separating McKenna and Dillard.
Hultgren will beat Hastert in IL-14
Brady is now leading!
322-the Chicago suburbs..
Suddenly I am feeling really good about Indiana’s seat now
Now Brady has passed Dillard. WTF is going on in IL?
As happy as I am MacDonald will fix this problem, it is disgusting the way these people don’t think. At least in Wisconsin we have decent repubs.
79.3% Precincts Reporting
Brady 20.1%
McKenna 19.9%
Dillard 19.6%
Ryan 16.6%
Andrzejewski 14.8%
Proft 8.0%
Jason: WHy is Brady a sure loser? Edger was from downstate. Ryan was from Kankakee which is outsside of the collar although North of Springfield. This is a difff=ernet year
Then I now give Indiana a 50/50 position in flipping.
That makes Illinois, Indiana, and California
potentially 48, 49, and 50 GOP seats.
:X
A Bad night.
Brady is not good, comes from Downstate, will not attract Chicago area votes. Big Pro Life guy who will trashed by Chicago media
Haesert’s son was better too
We need Quinn to win, for a batter night
Brady’s comeback is amazing. Maybe he is too far right, I honestly don’t know but with 60% counted, I did not think he would even be close.
Edgar was Scott Brown on steroids and Pro Choice.
No Pro Life Republican has won Governorship in last 40 years,
MD,
Tonight is proof that early returns can be misleading. The downstate vote had not come in at all when 60% was counted.
JT,
Looks like Quinn is going to pull it out.
Don’t count out McKenna quite yet. The margin could not be any slimmer.
Flatlanders
The Purist RINO Hunters should love Brady
Cornyn gets the job done.
If Quinn wins the Dem primary then I think
Brady will have a good chance of beating him.
Quinn wants to raise the IL State Tax by 50 percent.
That will not fly even in Illinois.
338
Yep. Keep your d$%^# boats in Illinois.
Is Ethan Hastert losing??
A 3300 vote lead for Brady.
Dlllard and McKenna have split the moderate vote, I guess. What is Ryan’s story?
Coulson concedes, Dold wins.
Md, my main man if Quinn wins I will be happier. I am a downer sorry, Coats in Ind helps.
Abortion is a big loser for the GOP in Illinois, especially the vocal Pro lifers like Brady
Did Seals win Brandon
Hastert is running behind Hulgren, still a block of precinct out.
Plummer has pulled ahead of Murphy for GOP Lt. Gov.
9000 vote lead for Quinn. Close to being over but not quite.
McKenna and Ryan are runing 4th and 5th in many downstate counties. It is Brady, Dillard and Adam NGF-Ski in many Downstate counties. Adam carried Macoupin County with a nice percentage. Unfortunately only about 1800 voters.
George just great. Murphy is a popular Surburban State Seantor, Plummer from Downstate.
Brady/Plummer will not do well in the Chicago Area
Al Salvi lives
Seals is up, but it hasn’t been called yet. Might be recount territory.
Quinn’s margin continues to shrink as the downstate vote comes in. Is he holding back some Cook County precincts?
He better be.
Interesting about Hultgren. He’s been massaging his local constituency for many years. I’m not surprised to see him win.
I lived in Wheaton for many, long years at which time Hultgren was a well-known local name. Both of my in-laws had funeral services at Hultgren’s Funeral Home on Main Street, for example. That’s his constituency — the staid, Midwestern, families that attend church on Sunday and Wednesday, mow their lawns regularly, and have neighborhood block parties. They’re predictable and “down to earth,” as they say. And oh-so-nice.
Looking at the counties out, I don’t see how Brady loses.
Depends on Dupage county.
If its AG v Kirk, its 50/50 until the Blago connections start coming, then it likely shifts into GOP pickup territory.
Where are you seeing the counties Brandon?
Hultgren better have $$$$ Kristen. Foster is a self Funder
Brady will lose to Quinn. Quinn will make Social issues his platform
Here:
http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/IL
And you can view the map.
Blago is on trial this summer finn.
Kirk will win
Hoffman has allegedly called and conceded.
“Brady will lose to Quinn. Quinn will make Social issues his platform.”
That did not help Corzine or Deeds, did it?
Brady now leads Dillard by a neck, McKenna has slipped to third, but still close. Less than 9,000 between Quinn and Hynes.
I think Hultgren has money. He’s got extended family with tentacles into the community. There’s a few of them. They tie into the Wheaton College/evangelical community closely.
I think he’s a partial self-funder. Don’t know, though.
#361
Then we are at 48.
I am pushing for either Fiorina (and forcing Boxer to say something horrifically stupid about cancer) or Campbell in Cali.
That would likely put us at 49.
If this dude in Indiana sounds as good as is being suggested, thats 50.
WHERE THE F*** IS PATAKI? ROSSI? TOMMYBOY?
Sam, Christie nor McDonnell were vocal but Pragmatic. They also did not have a Chicago type city to deal with.
38% for Alexi is bad for him
Yeah, they told` me the Dem machine in NJ would deliver it.
Sure.
Look, 10-11% unemployment
If the DuPage County results are any indication, more than 70% of that vote is still out–Dillard’s and Ryan’s home county.
Hultgren over Hastert with 75% counted.
Yeah, they told` me the Dem machine in NJ would deliver it.
Sure.
Look, 10-11% unemployment has a tendency to concentrate thoughts.
Is there a site with live totals in Illinois?
Who is Brady?
http://www.chicagotribune.com
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Downstate State Senator Rdel.
375. Thanks.
http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/IL
Hastert Losing makes it a bad night. The Lauzin wing and the Hastert wing of the district are still at odds with one another. At least we dont have Oberweis running this time around
Downstate senator? If Brady starts driving around in a beat-up pickup truck, he is in.
Any scoop on Green candidate Rich Whitney. Could corruption drive lefties to protest this cycle?
Redgill, Hultgren is good, but Haesert would have been a sure pick up.
The IL-10 does not look good. Dold is a small Business Owner, Coulson was a popular State Rep, but she got RINO Hunted
According to the map 10% of Cook is still out which may be good for Quinn.
downstate IL is deep red except in the cities, peoria, bloomington, champaign, evansville, east st louis etc.
cook county is deep blue.
iirc you cannot own a gun in chicago.
Hynes ran big in the small Downstate counties around Springfield–the place with lot sofr state workers and their families. He’s not less than 7,000 behind Quinn. Brady still leads Dillard, but with some much of Dupage out???
Hultgren is now 54-46 over Hastert with 88% counted.
384
Otis MacDonald is challenging Chicago’s handgun ban. That should be a bad memory by July.
What is interesting is that the Dem primary total is about 770k so far…but the Rep total is over 630k…considering the Dem advantage in party affiliation it appears Reps are motivated to vote….
http://www.chicagoguncase.com/
We need Quinn to win George. Hynes will be up 20% against Brady off the bat
i like the chicago ban
Ok, time to start campaigning LIKE HELL to make Kirk a Senator.
Time like crazy to get the path cleared for Coats too for Indiana.
You guys wanted your potential political powerhouse a la Boozeman for Indiana?
Just walked in from left field/Area 51.
Quinn down to 6000 vote lead and fading.
Dold versus Coulson in Mark Kirk’s 10th and SEals vs. Hamos in the same district have been stuck for some time with 13 precincts still out–in the Chicago area that starts to smell.
We’re going to go into recount territory int he gubernatorial contests in both parties–just a hunch.
Ambinder: Murtha’s situation is grave
390
Folks in the Antebellum South liked slavery. Monkey.
around me, the farmers put signs up like
“guns save lives”
of course they do not mention the bullets
just walked in from area 51
LOL
Good one
Dillard is now leading.
Read Gary Kleck and John Lott’s books. The signs are right.
Dillard back on top.
Only 50% of Dupage has reported. This will help Dillard
McKenna catching up again…close…
Brady won alot of Northern counties as well.
I think he can beat Quinn. Downstate will be
fired up to vote this fall.
lisab,
When guns are banned, only criminals and the government have guns. That is a bad situation, because the police only show up after the home invasion or carjacking.
MD, Dillard is not your favorite, but the Obama crap was over hyped.
Dillard has the best Republican in the State Behind him in Edgar.
Dillard’s 82 year old Father died Sunday
Jason T who do you want to win on the R gov primary?
Quinn got a second wind…he was up by 4k but now up by 7k
How could Dupage have 50% out w/ 10% of all preceints left?
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Jason, I like all of these guys, but I want to win the GE.
Mckenna or Dillard is fine with me, Brady is a good man but would not win
One thing about Seals vs. Hamos in the 10th. Julie Hamos was being backed by Jan Schakowsky and her husband Bob Creamer’s political organization. She did not originally live in the district, but found an address in Winnetka. So, if Seals pulls it out, it is a setback for Jan. Let me cry crocodile tears.
Jason, we got Alexi which is good, he is tainted
We need the owner of the horrible IL economy, Quinn to win
The Cook county precincts that have not reported are mostly in Black & Hispanic precincts.
I think the machine is holding these out to see how many votes Quinn will need.
I can’t call it for Quinn yet but isn’t odd that the Cook county numbers have not moved in an hour.
410. Right, looking ok for Dillard…
George, Seals still does not live in the district. The Guy has run 3 times now, and wants to raise taxes where he does not live
Rdel, Hynes is the DEM machine hack not Quinn
I hope Dold gets big $$$ from the North Shore Fat Cats (Think John Hughes movies-Home Alone)
He will need it
With 7 candidates its hard to gain a lot of votes with 7% left, I think McKenna is done. But Dillard’s lead is narrowing again.
The Quinn/Hynes race has to be headed for a recount.
Oh crap, looks like Dillard just might pull it off.
Phoenix, better Dillard than Brady
arguing with someone on another site about Kirk for senate.
They say its better to have a Democrat than someone who voted for cap and trade.
Yes. Better to have a Democrat than to HAVE CONTROL OF THE F****** UNITED STATES SENATE.
Are these people just f****** insane?
Wow, it is so close.
Pretty close.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Finn, our Buddy maelstrom has been trashing Kirk at FR tonight.
#422 — I agree. Rahm is right in regards to the far left primarying Blue Dog Dems calling them retarded. I just want these GOP candidates to be limited government fiscal conservative Dems. I also want them pro-life but you can’t get them all.
Oops, I meant Rs not Dems. Must be getting late
Well, it looks like the GOP Lt. Gov. and the DEM Comptroller races may also be heading to recount.
If we have Kirk and Dillard plus Topinka on the ticket. We need some downstate GOP representation. Right now the only sure bet is Dan Rutherford for treasurer. I don’t know where the SEc. of STate and AG candidates are from. I think the Downstate vote will be crucial in this election. There is a lot of anger at the way tings have gone among Downstate voters of all persuasions. But that’s just my prejudices.
It used to be that Chicago cast 20% of the statewide vote. Suburban Cook County 15-20%. The collar counties (outer suburbs) about 20-25% and Downstate 35-40%. Don’t know how that works now. I’d have to see registration figures. A winning Republican has to run well enough in the collar counties to eat substantially into the Democratic margin in Cook County, and then pile up a big margin Downstate. We’ll see if that can still work.
It’s getting close to my bedtime. Good night.
Finn,
Kirk said that he voted for cap and trade because his district was for it. He also said that as a Senator, he would vote no on cap and trade.
Kirk got 60 thousand more votes than Giannoulias
so that should be a good sign. The Hoffman vote
should be more conservative and some should go to
Kirk.
Dillard widening lead to 3K over Brady. Looks like this one just might be about done.
OK JT,
Why was the Obama thing with Dillard overhyped?
6% to go Quinn has a 6k lead and Dillard a 4k lead…
There are still about 40k R votes out there but so fragmented Dillard should win.
Whoops, down to 3k again….
#429
then you’ll have some purist ASS argue that but voting matters more than words.
Purists be damned. They were useless for Massachusetts.
They will be useless in this election and if they want to sit out, so be it. Doing so is a VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS, as far as this cycle is concerned- it really is a ZERO SUM GAME.
Kirk is running as the clean independent guy. Its as good as we get but he will win and presumably have some tails
Cook County machine definitely holding back their precincts for Quinn.
Just like Daley did for Kennedy in 1960. Playing the waiting game waiting for downstate precincts to throw in – then count them out with the Chicago precincts.
ala 1960. Illinois politics never change. I’ve seen this movie before.
I can’t get Chicago Hacks straight?
Brady still has lot of the vote out
439. Looks that way since Dillards lead is down to 800 votes.
635 vote lead for Dillard.
The guy leading for GOP Lt Gov is only 27 years old.
lol
Brady within 600.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
I declare that we refer to the race in Illinois now as
Kirk V Gag-a-lot-us
It looks like PPP(D) undersold Brady.
McKenna basically stopped getting any votes 45 minutes ago. Quinn’s lead less than 5k but he should be OK. I am sure he has a K or 2 in reserve with Cook County. Better safe than sorry.
He got out of college less than 5 years ago. Good Lord. Is he even eligible for the office?
Do the voters even know how old he is?
Okay, I’m stil up. It looks as if most of the Downstate and suburban vote is in. It’s the minority areas of Chicago that have the most outstanding precincts. Not many GOP votes there. Dillard is ahead by 600 or less. Recount!
#445. Rasmussen did worse.
Marv,
guns don’t kill people … um … it is the bullets ripping through flesh and organs that kills you
Dillard up by 754.
What did Ras have again Brandon?
I have to give pollsters a break on this one. 5 viable candidates makes it tough to poll.
Andy McKenna 20%
Jim Ryan 16%
Kirk Dillard 13%
Bill Brady 11%
Adam Andrzejewski 11%
Dan Proft 8%
Some other candidate 4%
Not sure 17%
#450 lisab,
Yep, that’s the idea.
I still want to know why Dillard’s support of Obama has been overplayed. I am willing to listen.
so my class has to invite someone to speak to our class,
this is my adult education on american government class, not my six year olds.
several want to invite pat quinn
a few want various mayors from surrounding towns
one wants john mccain
and four or five want sarah palin.
i am suggesting rod blagojevich … well he has plenty of time and many interesting stories
456. Dillard supports Obama?
If and when I have to shot, I intend to kill. Therefore 2 things are evident:
1. I will be absolutely sure that I need to shot.
2. I will have the proper equipment to do the job right.
Quinn will win. He’s now praying for a Brady win to save him in November.
The guy leading for Dem Lt. Gov. is in college now and owns a pawn shop in Chicago.
I am not making this stuff up.
*snicker*
Yes, but JT thinks is has been overplayed. He knows a lot more about IL politics than I do so I want to know the “rest of the story”.
Dillard spoke well of Obama but withdrew his words and endorsed McCain in GE
NO excuse for endorsing Obama in a democratic primary but hey they were serving in the state senate togother.
No excuse.
500 precincts to go Dillard is up by 1k.
This might be the chance of a lifetime to seat a conservative gov. Dillrad is a DuPage republican, which is only one step above a Cook County Democrat. Go Brady Go!!!!!!!!!
OK – so Quinn wins and the remaining precincts are in AA areas which means the results for the GOP should be set. However, after what I have seen tonight, I want to see 100% reported before coming to any conclusions.
Brady’s home areas are coming he is up 1000 votes
465. So this is really old news, a lot of people that supported Obama have changed their minds, I don’t hold it against them.
Brady is now up!
Brady +1200 w 96.4 in
If Dillard supported McCain in the gen, then I am OK.
Who knows, he might have been a poker buddy of Obamas in the state sen.
Go Brady GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
See, nothing is set!!! 100% have to be in.
Go Brady Go!!!
Does Brady have any chance in IL realistically?
He’s going up against a guy with a 25% approval rating.
So much for Lech Walesa’s endorsement.
“Does Brady have any chance in IL realistically?”
Did Brown have a chance in MA, realistically?
Jason T said Brady was a certain loser. A guy named Jason probably can’t be wrong….
I’m stunned that Kirk has only 57% of the vote. Even Corzine got more than that.
Anybody has a chance against a governor presiding over 10% unemployment, realistically.
Hmm, what did I say an hour ago, oh wait, this:
Brandon says:
February 2, 2010 at 10:44 pm
Looking at the counties out, I don’t see how Brady loses.
MD,
When I found out that Quinn had only 25% approval, I thought about moving to IL and running against him. That all fell apart when our CFP, Inc board wouldn’t approve my paid move.
tommy: I thought Kirk would do better. He has some fences to mend. I think he will do fine against AG but work must begin now
I hear there are huge precincts holding out and they are all for Ryan!
Just kidding – I don’t know chit.
Just waiting.
Brady and Dan Rutherford, treasurer candidate, got elected back int he early 90s as insurgent candidates who beat the party bossses’ candidates. He’s a businessman conservative from Bloomington. He’s run statewide once before in the primary. Rutherford ran against Jesse White 4 years ago for SEc. of State. I think Brady’s brother may be state GOP chairman. And after he moved up toe STate Senator, I think a brother grabbed a state rep. seat. He’s going to have to work to win over suburban independents. He needs to down play the social stuff and focus on the mess in Springfield and Blago.
Brady can beat Quinn… Downstate will come
out huge for Brady. Quinn wants to raise
taxes by 50 percent… thats all anyone needs
to know about Quinn and he is toast.
#482
Before you pat yourself too hard, check out #266 and what you wrote in #269
I want Obamas (I mean the peoples) seat in the gop column
Brady will win… only hope for Dillard looks like Rock Island county, and McLean County has some precincts out but has strongly favored Brady so far.
So Bill Brady for Gov and some 27 year old dude for Lt. Gov.
vs.
Unpopular Dem Gov and college attending/pawn shop owner for Lt Gov.
I’d remind you I said Kirk would get a percent in the mid to high 50s, Tommy.
483
So that was what the “supersecret” meeting was about. I was seriously worried about you that day.
Keep the mantra in mind:
2010 is a vote for or against Obama and the Dems.
Who runs against them is interchangeable.
Brady extends lead to >2100.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
97% reporting
Quinn +5200
Brady +2100
Wes,
Great call. Even a stopped clock is right sometimes eh?
#488. Haha, well it was gone when I wrote it, but then it came back.
“Does Brady have any chance in IL realistically?”
yes.
unlike massachusetts which is almost a uniform blue
illinois is almost all red, except for cook county and a few other purple leaning blue cities.
the republican should easily win down state. all that matters is the dem turnout in chicago. if the dems do not turnout ANY rep can win
283 of the 351 precints left are in Cook County
Wait a sec… 283 Cook county precincts still out and they have been favoring Dillard by better than 3-1.
Brady Quinn. Isn’t that the former Notre Dame quarterback who now plays for the Browns?
Brady will win the primary-the GE is a teabagger moment?
If I was Mark Kirk this would look a perfect storm for me.
1. He is running against the scandal ridden Alex G.
2. Gov Quinn apparently will be carrying the banner for the D’s in the Gov’s race.
3. 10% unemployment and getting worse
4. THE Gop Gov candidate will be a downstate conservative who will be a huge pull for downstate conservatives who will also be pulling that lever for Mark Kirk.
mostly minority=about 800 GOP votes out
Still votes left to count in Cook County. I am shocked. Just shocked!
It’s Bill Brady, former RNC Chairman. and Sen from Tenn maybe? Or was that Bill Brock?
I’m really happy tonight…you are telling a rural, downstate conservative, pro-life Republican was able to win a divided Republican primary basically relying on base voters in Ilinois (the Illinois GOP electorate is probably average nationally in terms of its conservatism).
I think we got a tell tonight about what happens in a couple of years.
Kirk getting 57% is a tell as well.
Bill Brock is the former RNC Chair from TN.
Rdel,
If you have it down to the exact vote count outstanding, then I am truly amazed!
Well, I think Kirk wins the senate seat. He looks strong. Finally an Illinois Republican who runs well in the suburbs. That’s the good news.
I hope Brady can beat Quinn. Downstate vote in Illinois vs Chicago machine. The tie is broken by the Chicago suburbs. Unfortunately, Brady runs like crap there.
Good news is that party purists have a primary win. Bad news is that Quinn has a chance. He’s thanking the lord right now for Republican primary voters.
Nicholas Brady, GOP Sen from NJ?
Tommy_Boy,
“Tell”
Sounds like you’re a “Texas Hold’em fan too.
#506. Let me guess, it means that Sarah Palin will be President?
2400 vote lead for Brady. I think it is over. Maybe….
Tommy, need I remind you of Deeds, Corzine, and Coakley? Talk about a stopped clock. When was the last time you called a race right?
Good news is Brady will motivate the downstate Republican voters to turn out – very good for Kirk because they won’t vote for tax hiker Quinn.
I got Corzine wrong. McDonnell was an easy call and Brown was obvious 3 days out.
Brady might help Kirk while still losing if I am reading his right.
Recent update.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
#512 I’m still waiting for Wissing to catch the Kos poll today. There was nothing wrong with the first two questions in that poll.
Lead up to 2500. I am all for contested primaries but 5 viable candidates in a state wide race is 2 too many.
Did we get any general election matchups in the governor’s race from PPP(D)?
Kirk brings out the suburb vote for Brady
and Brady brings out the downstate vote
for Kirk. Sounds like a perfect way to win.
I don’t think McKenna has received one vote in the last hour. That is bizarre.
Why are we going to assume that Brady will lose?
Tommy, Obama got 53% of the vote in the 2004 Dem primary. Give it a rest. You’re the worst political prognosticator since Alan the idiot.
#521. Yeah, but they only included Ryan and McKenna(the frontrunners at the time).
OK, McKenna finally picked up another 700 votes.
So, what have I missed?
Marv:
My point exactly. How can anyone assume that an incumbent with 25% job approval will win? T
Wes,
I think we can distinguish between the position that Obama was in with the situation that Kirk was in.
I’m hopeful Marv. Quinn is so unpopular. But damn, Brady runs poorly in the suburbs – even among Republicans (which admitedly or RINOS) Still you need their votes to win Illinois.
Wes,
TB might not give Nostrodomous a run for his money but he is a good guy.
are
Brady probably wins this thing going away without AA in the race
I still think TB is more accurate than Al-Zogby.
2200 vote lead. Man, I have to go to bed. They need to count these friggin votes.
Who did Ditka support?
Tommy_Boy,
What the heck happened to Gallup?
Gang,
I’ll get one election right…..the 2012 GOP primary.
Brown’s victory wasn’t obvious to Tommy a day out based on the prediction thread, MD.
TB,
You are a good sport.
Marv,
The House GOP bailed him out….there was absolutely no bounce until Sunday.
Coats to challenge Blue Blah.
Phil:
You still needed RINO votes in MA, which was not exactly a hotbed of mainstream conservatism. Why would the IL RINOs be any different?
As I said, 10% unemployment has a great tendency to concentrate the mind.
MD,
southern illinois is very red. when i turn on my radio there are as many church stations as rock stations. they run morality plays … seriously …
“announcer: debra saw an old lady drop twenty dollars on the street …
debra: i wonder if i should give it back to her? hmmmm … i really could use twenty dollars, i think i will keep it.
announcer: three years later debra is turning tricks in a argentinian brothel, when a Christian man turns down her offer of sex
debra: please sir, if you don’t have sex with me, my pimp will beat me
Christian: well, i cannot do that, but … here is twenty dollars … so your pimp doesn’t beat you
debra: wow … if only i had not stolen that old lady’s money
announcer: debra stopped being a prostitute and from that moment returned to her church. etc”
I’m off to bed. Kirk looks strong for November. Very strong.
Nite all.
CORRECTED PROJECTION FLIP LIKELIHOODS;
DE 99%
ND 99%
AR 90%
NV 90%
PA 75%
CO 70%
IL 60%
IN 50% CURRENTLY 49 GOP 51 DEM+IND
CA 25% TO 50-50 SPLIT
NY 25% TO 51-49 MAJORITY
WI 10%
WA 5%
Wes,
When we get to 2012, we can’t let you wait until election day for your prediction, like we did for MA this year.
For all the rap on Judy Baar Topinka, now the GOP candiate for Comptroller, she can go into the white ethnic wards of Chicago and canpaign like gangbusters. We might see Polish and Italian voters moving a bit toward the GOP in these wards. Just saying.
I have to go to bed now. I am just going to assume that Brady prevails.
Good stuff tonight.
Oh, and there are more new people on the GD island in Lost. That show drives me nuts.
It was Gallup that gave a bounce to the Obumbler.
Here;s a prediction, amrk it and bring it up on Nov 5:
Brady will have an easier time beating Quinn than Kirk will have beating Alexi G.
#549. It’s really confusing me. I have no idea who those people are.
btw, this was posted by a dem on my favorite blog today. supposedly she actually works for the dem party, but who knows. it does sort of explain their philosophy, and why i am no longer a dem. they are NOT liberals.
“I think it’s interesting that you conservative foot soldiers are not very excited or really interested in controlling the Government. You clearly don’t trust your own leaders. That right there is one main difference between D’s and R’s: We want to Win at all costs. You don’t. We want to govern. You just want to talk abou t governing. You aren’t willing to fight hard. We are.”
Exactly, Tommy. You’re predicting dire things for Kirk based on his landslide primary win. Based on your track record, I’d have to say Kirk is a lock.
#555
Glen Beck slams media matters after a few drinks, aka Ariana Huffington.
Wes,
Where I predict dire things for Kirk? I’m just arguing that 57% is a terrible showing for someone in his situation.
However, it doesn’t matter for the purposes of a general election now.
I’ll jump on board with Sam’s prediction that brady runs ahead of kirk.
I’ll work to oblige you, Marv.
If TB is agreeing with my prediction, I want to change mine.
Well, Tommy, it was a possibility till you said it. Now that you’ve predicted it, it’s not going to happen.
#559 LOL
Who have I jinxed?
TB, you need to root for Quinn and Alexi.
You jinxed Deeds, Coakley, and Corzine, Tommy.
Good thing the primary is many months before the general. Who knows how long it will take to sort out some of these races.
Agreed, Sam. Good night, everyone.
Wow, two stunners tonight. Coats takes on Bayh in Indiana and a conservative wins the GOP governor primary in Illinois…WOW
Anyone stil here?
Quite a night in the Land of Lincoln.
Check out my post here from 6:16.
I was pretty right on the money about those things, except Brady has the narrow lead at this point.
My sense is that probably holds up, but the Dillard campaign is saying that all the remaining vote is from Cook County, with much of it suburban, and they could make it up there.
Of all the candidates for Governor, I am closest ideologically to Brady, but did not support him in the primary for electability reasons. His victory, if it holds up, would be due to a variety of factors…
The best news though is that Quinn appears to have survived. Brady could beat Quinn. Absolutely.
Very glad that Alexi survived too!
The NRSC is already slamming him in a web ad saying that “Tony Soprano would be proud.”
Happy that Seals won the Dem nomination again in my District, excited to be behind Robert Dold.
In IL 14, I probably would have supported Ethan Hastert out of loyalty to his father, but truth be told, Hultgren is the better candidate at this point.
One real surprise is Joe Walsh winning the GOP primary to run against Melissa Bean. I thought he would do no better than third. That could be a lost opportunity for us. Maybe it was The Eagles thing…
Corey, thanks for the insight.
Ambinder is claiming that Coats is one of the people behind the Palin VP pick.
Never seen so many close statewide and Congressional races in one night in my life… razor thin margins all over the state for everything. Probably going to be recounts or calls for recounts. Since the primary was so early… (thanks to the Dems), what’s the rush?
If present trends hold, the GOP nominee for Lt. Governor will be a 27 year old businessman and the Dem nominee is a complete unknown, who as mentioned here, runs a pawn shop!
If it is Quinn vs. Brady, both sides are going to be more focused on rejoicing on the perceived weaknesses of their opponents than anything else.
When it all comes down to it, Quinn’s JA was at 25% in a poll out this week, and the Blagojevich trial will be going on during the general election.
If Peter Fitzgerald was able to beat a weak incumbent for a U.S. Senate seat in a tough GOP year, Brady can beat Quinn for Governor this year.
Brady up 1800 votes with 200 precincts still to count
Complete preliminary statistics on the races in IL, KY and MO are posted on my predictions page at uselectionatlas.
Only statistics. However, based on turnout, it is clear that the Republican party has spurred it’s base on in Illinois.
Greets,
bonn
“However, based on turnout, it is clear that the Republican party has spurred it’s base on in Illinois.”
nope, just like in massachusetts, my home state, here in illinois where i live it is all anger at obama and the dems.
the people are not voting for the republicans.
they just cannot stand the democrats.
in massachusetts it was because obama wanted to raise their taxes and lower their health care
in illinois it is because the sales taxes went up statewide.
when people start realizing the obama tax hikes are starting to kick in, the fury will be awful to see.
i strongly advise the dems to not raise taxes, like by ending the bush tax cuts.
big mistake … big … huge fail … the people are angry.
for example today i went to walmart to buy $26 of groceries.
the lady in front of me bought $120 of junk food. tv dinners. tgif potato skins. literally $120 of crappy instant food.
all on food stamps.
i had to pay cash … and for hers too … through my taxes.
if the gop was smart they should just run ads pointing out how much obama is going to raise their taxes and help the government employees
like me
#573
Bonn I think you are overly confident that Castle will lose.
he beats a generic D in polling. Biden’s son wouldn’t even run due to the sour climate this time around.
Also I disagree over Pennsylvania- I think Specter always flirts with failure during reelection bids, and hes flirted one time too many.
The fact that Toomey is beating him handily in the polls this far out and despite T’s very conservative stands leads me to believe this is going to be picked up this year.
Other than those 2, good initial prediction
@575 Think of how much fun it will be to pay for this woman’s healthcare too!
#577 if it were breast augmentations instead of abortions I wouldnt mind
this woman need no breast augmentation … she was a little chunky …
i think the dems are vastly underestimating the amount of anger over taxes right now, especially as the money goes to people who do not pay into the system.
obama having an illegal alien aunt living in boston public housing does not help
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_0ARX402Z1tE/SnUN-sgo6sI/AAAAAAAAAPw/hERh-4yaD74/s400/obamaauntpolly.jpg
and if you complain, they label you a racist.
even teachers are worried the rate of spending is unsustainable
I dare people to call me racist. I almost bait them sometimes.
The look on their faces when they spot my fiancee, its like you can actually see the head explosion in slow motion…like that movie Scanners
well, i assume she is black?
i think you can imagine what the dems will call her if they know you are a republican.
not all dems of course … just the 15% of dems who will say whatever it takes to win …
they see republicans as the enemy,
terrorists are simply potential opportunities to exploit a crisis
Chinese diplomat: Ties with USA deteriorating since Obama…
to give you an idea of how bad it is getting in illinois …
hubby and i travel to massachusetts several times a year to buy things.
the sales tax on everything here is over 8%. in massachusetts ther e is no sales tax on clothes or food.
you know it is bad when buying in massachusetts is the better option.
About Coats:
I met Dan Coats and his wife on July 4, 2002 in Dresden, Germany for the celebration of Independence Day. At that time, he was the US Ambassador to Germany and I sang for the event. He speaks little german, but his wife understands it pretty well. She and I also share the same birthplace of Middletown, OH.
Dan Coats is a very, very intelligent man and will be a formidable opponent. Bayh will have his work cut out for him.
I must say, the GOP just put up a top tier candidate.
But Bayh is also popular, this could come down to a nailbiter in the fall.
Coats was appointed to teh Senate in 1988 by outgoing Gov. Robert Orr to replace Dan Quayle, who had been elected VP. Coats was a Rep for Quayle’s former CD. Bayh was elected Gov in 1988, so Orr appointed Coats before Bayh was sworn in.
Coats won the Special Election in 1990, beating Baron Hill. He then won a full term in 1992 beating Joe Hogsett. He declined to run for another term in 1998 fearing that he would get beaten by Evan Bayh. He would have.
He was Ambassador to Germany for a while and served on some heavy liftin commissions. He is very well connected and will be able to raise a ton of money. He has very large stature, although most voters in Indiana these days wouldn’t know his name right now and more wouldnt be able to pick him out in a lineup.
Still, it is obvious he was recruited out of “retirement” and will be a very good opponent. He is definitely a field clearing candidate for the GOP nod.
“Latinos are our natural allies”~~misguided rinos.
yeah right