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TX: GOP Leads White In Gov RaceIn a follow up to yesterday’s primary poll, Scott Rasmussen has the latest numbers in the gubernatorial General Election races in Texas. GOVERNOR – TEXAS (Rasmussen) This poll was done February 1st among 1000 likely voters.
281 Responses to “TX: GOP Leads White In Gov Race” |
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1
The Sun will rise tomorrow. That’s something that’s about as obvious as the results of this poll.
About what I expected.
Wes – Your Bimbette comments inspired me to visit Youtube and see what the fuss was about. She sounds like she’s 12 years old and her perky voice inflections are very distracting. I can see why she’s not being taken seriously. Like, totally, fer shur!
Mark, I hope Pataki leaves his POTUS dream world and jumps in.
Wes, if Bill Brady wins and turns out to be a good candidate against Quinn, I will eat my words.
Brady better be pragmatic on Abortion, that issue is a huge loser for the GOP in IL
Agreed, Jason T. But I have this feeling that even Blakeman at this point can beat her (especially after the debates). This is the ditz that voted to keep ACORN funding.
I hope he is, Jason.
Jason T, you being from IL, what do you think about Kirk’s ability to shore up the rural vote? It seems that he totally got his ass kicked in the coal districts. And would Brady be a net positive for helping Kirk get out the vote in those rural areas?
Curious about your insight on this.
Mark, With Quinn and Alexi, we got the DEMS we wanted.
IL-14 Hultgren is a great candidate and should beat Foster who is very wealthy. Hastert’s son was a ?. Would his Dad pull him thru in a GE, who knows?
IL-10 We may lose this seat. Kirk will help Dold being on the ticket, but Coulson would have been better.
Seals helps us. Hamos would have been the sure winner.
Seals does not live in the district, is a two time loser, and is Black in a very white District
Jason, that’s good to hear. I noticed that Seals was getting about 47 percent of the vote the last 2 times. That’s not a bad total. I hope Dold runs a good campaign and makes himself attractive to voters.
Mark, I just do not know. Brady could help Kirk, but Kirk I think will win no matter what. Alexi is dirty and the Blago trial is this Summer. Alexi is a Resko Guy.
The Lt Gov races are wierd. A pawn broker won on the dem side, and Murphy the Popular Surburban State Sen was upset by a 27 Year Old downstater near St. Louis.
Just think, Mark. The voters of an NY congressional district elected and reelected the Bimbette.
I think a good ad by Brady, would be if Quinn dies in office, will the Pawnbroker be Governor?
Wes, Tedisco and Hoffman did not live in their NY districts
Is Murtha in bad shape?
Coats is great, I hope Bayh retires. The Healthcare issue is going to be huge
Well, all, I have a doctor’s appointment. I’ll catch you later.
Looks like we may have a positive jobs number on Friday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35213567
Jason, I will say that I think Brady looks and sounds better than Dillard, despite positions that may be to the right of the state. Especially with the focus on taxes and spending, I think Brady would communicate his position better. Dillard just seems dull to me (Dullard) and a little swishy.
Dillard also endorsed Obama, and regardless of the nature of his endorsement, it could turn off the Republicans and Independents.
But I don’t claim to know about IL. Just my observations.
Former Senator Coats to challenge Bayh?
The 27 year old Lt Gov, if he wins, could be a good person to build the GOP bench in IL for the future, I’d think.
God knows we need new talent, everywhere.
Mark, you are right.
Brady is much better looking and younger. But he needs to avoid the Social Issues, like McDonnell did. Stay with Financial issues, he owns a Construction company.
in 2002 Blago was a obscure Chicago Congressman, who many thought was a GE loser. He rode the anti George Ryan wave and won barely. Brady will have to use Blago big
21. Like Kirk, Jason Plummer is a Naval Reserve Officer
yes Howard- Came out last night- great news!!
I wonder what Obama’s approval is in NV?
LOL
Palin to Attend TeaParty in Reid’s Hometown
February 2, 2010 – 10:44 PM | by: Jake Gibson
Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R) will be attending the kickoff of the “Tea Party Express III” in Searchlight, Nevada, the hometown of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).
18. Brandon word of Caution. CNBC in Dec said the Nov Employment numbers would be horrible, and they were good or better.
A Tea party guy won the GOP nom in the IL-8 to take on liberal Melissa Bean. This a Big GOP district, but Bean wins with the Soccer Moms
Howard- Brandon posted this last night
http://howeypolitics.com/m/ArticleDisplay.aspx?articleid=5581§ionid=39
Positive job growth in January might be just what the doctor ordered for Obama and congressional Democrats.
Jason, I’m sure he will use his best asset: his construction company (and delaying law school to help run it- great story).
I’ll tell you already that I’m not impressed with the aesthetics of his website. He should hire a more professional team and currently, he has Pro Life real big on the “Issues” section of his page. Hopefully, he runs a practical campaign, not an ideologically fueled one. Especially since this is Gov, not Sen.
I’m just going by the trend. The ADP says 22,000 private sector were lost in January. But that number is usually around 90,000 higher(losses) than the actual job numbers. So we’re probably looking at roughly 80,000 job gain.
Mark, as you can see by the number of my many posts, I am a pissed off IL Conservative who wants to throw out the Chicago DEM scum.
If we lose the Gov race, IL is finished and will go into Bankruptcy like Cal
#
yes Howard- Came out last night- great news!!
Comment by GPO — February 3, 2010 @ 9:10 am
I bet that’s why Pence declined.
Coats spoke to him and said “this is mine”!
31. Fair enough, that still keeps us at 10%
80000 job gain?
Wow! That’s very encouraging!
COURIC FACES PAY CUT; DEEP LAYOFFS HIT CBSNEWS
Drudge headline
YESSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Howard, that shows Pence is a good man, who took one for the team, and will be a force in a future GOP House.
Give the SOS Roitka credit too, he makes Buyer’s seat a sure GOP Hold
Jason, many of us are. If the silent majority had not been woken up, Massachusetts (and New Jersey, for that matter) probably wouldn’t have happened. Liberalism has just gone too far.
The turnout on the GOP side in IL really impresses me and makes me very optimistic that the GOP will sweep the 2 big races (Gov, Sen) and a bunch of the House races. (Provided there are no major errors on our side)
Phil are you being sarcastic?
Phil, any news on Murtha? I hope he lives, but retires
Well said Mark. Your post made me feel better.
I just hope Brady will take a cue from Pro Life Christie and McDonnell and stay away from Social Issues
Jason
yep
There are more conservatives than liberals in every state:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125480/Ideology-Three-Deep-South-States-Conservative.aspx
Bill White switched from the Senate race to the Governors race. He cant get to 40% even against unknown Deb Median. LOL I am sure Aaron will be along to remind us of the coming wave of Democrats in Texas!!!!
Phil, you are “The Man” on the House Races. What do you feel on the IL House races after Yesterday?
Bill White of Houston, Hicky of Denver, and Barrett of Milwaukee.
All three White Big City Mayors who will crushed because to run a city you must go far left
Jason, Brady seems very bright, from listening to him. I think he knows he’s secured his base and it’s time to expand and make the right moves to appeal to suburban and Northern voters. Most important now is the campaign, of course. We’ll all be watching.
Our primary here in CA isn’t as early as yours. Our registration dynamics are similar to MA (and I’m guessing IL). Democrats are 44 percent of registered voters. The other 56 percent is Independents and Republicans. I’m hoping and praying that a similar coalition will coalesce and push Meg Whitman (Gov) over the top and whoever is running against Boxer (Carly or Tom).
The turnout in IL is giving me hope for a similar thing here in CA.
I hope he lives, but retires
Comment by Jason T — February 3, 2010 @ 9:18 am
I hope he retires.
Beyond that, I can care less what happens to that corrupt bastard.
These people have screwed this country and flushed it.
I don’t care if he’s hospitalized.
Can I get a big amen for the job John Cornyn is doing? Putting Senator Coats up against Bayh is a hell of a coup. I think he has another card up his sleeve as well.
COURIC FACES PAY CUT; DEEP LAYOFFS HIT CBSNEWS
Wed Feb 03 2010 09:11:21 ET
CBSNEWS anchorwoman and 60 MINUTES contributor Katie Couric faces a dramatic pay cut at the network, insiders tell the DRUDGE REPORT.
CBS boss Les Moonves is determined to save money and trim expenses — from top to bottom — at the former crown jewel of broadcasting.
Couric, the highest paid TV news personality in history, commands over $14 million a year, plus bumps for non-EVENING NEWS appearances.
But her salary is now in the direct line of fire, network insiders explain, and a populist backlash against Couric’s cash is said to be forming inside the newsroom.
“She makes enough to pay 200 news reporters $75,000 a year!” demands a veteran producer. “It’s complete insanity.”
The angry source continues: “We report with great enthusiasm how much bankers are making, how it is out of step with reality during a recession. We’ll look at Katie!”
MORE
Couric’s $300,000 a week paycheck has become the obsession of disgruntled CBS staff, just as deep layoffs rock the fishbowl.
Dozens of employees — including staff members in D.C., San Francisco, Miami, London, Los Angeles and Moscow — are being let go, the NEW YORK OBSERVER reports.
Couric’s current CBS contract expires next year.
Developing…
HAHAHAHA!
Outrage over the bankers!
Funny how the msm doesn’t police themselves.
Brandon, thanks for the link to the Gallup poll. If we can win Massachusetts, one of the smallest conservative-liberal gaps, things are looking great for us in every single state but Vermont and Hawaii (though their gap is not that far off from MA)
We are in good times.
Gary – I saw Cornyn on Fox. He’s looking very confident about his recruits. Don’t be surprised if he’s secured WA and WI (and maybe even Pataki, VT and HI)
I like our chances of defending Ill-10. Very weak Dem candidate and our primary numbers in total votes was about the same as theirs.
Would have prefered the other candidate for our side but in this environment, Kirk will help a lot in a suburban district like 10.
I think we have a very good shot at taking down Foster as well.
I just read where we will be forced to watch Katie interview the ONE before getting to watch my Saints kick the Colts A**. I guess that’s when I’ll make the run to the store for more refreshments. Even on Super Bowl Sunday, we can’t escape this egomaniac. Geaux Saints! Who Dat?
John Cornyn has been nails.
Cornyn says without naming that there are some potential candidates who previously were approached and declined who are now about to get in the game. This is guy is a former Supreme Court chief justice for Texas, he does not make statements he cant back up. Look for at least one other get. I would put good money on it.
Every time I think of Murtha’s slander of our marines my blood boils.
http://www.breitbart.tv/las-vegas-mayor-obama-is-not-our-friend/
As mentioned above, Coats running is BIG
http://howeypolitics.com/m/ArticleDisplay.aspx?articleid=5581§ionid=39
Now, if we could get Lingle to run in HI, Thompson in WI and Rossi in WA…almost no Senate seats would be safe
And the long shots: Douglas in VT and Rell in CT.
Yes, but I thought Rell and Douglas were through with politics period
MY guess? Tommy Thompson comes on to put a smackdown on Russ Feingold.
We are getting our candidates. Now, lets see what the jobs market does.
Obama still holding 50/49.
Very curious.
if 80,000 jobs are added…wonder how many are federal paid by the deficit?
Unless Thompson would be leaving a good job in the private sector, I think he will run…it’s not like he is going to run for President again.
-22K per ADP ( who actually process paychecks as opposed to the Bureau of Labor Statistics who has government economists. ).
Remember, just to absorb the new college and high school grads we need a certain amount of new jobs. We are a long way from eating into the unemployment and underemployment, probably two years or more. Obama policies will stretch that out too.
Forget about unemployment dropping, probably at all. Any uptick and a whole bunch of discouraged will get up off the couch and start looking again. And that will add to the unemployment numbers due to the stupid way we count.
Charlie Cook has moved IN Senate seat from Safe Dem to lean dem even before Coats announces.
62: David, I think Jodi Rell is dealing with cancer. God bless her and I hope she makes a full recovery.
As for Douglas, I’m not sure what his intentions are, aside from not wanting to run for a 5th term as governor.
With a national environment like this, if they wanted to work in DC, the job’s available.
We might see a tick up in jobs but seasonal adjustments might bite as well. The Nov & Dec job numbers were funny-honey figures.
Rate might actually bump up as well
Wouldnt it be hilarious if the Dems win all of 3 or 4 Senate races on November 2?
Coats is huge. He can raise lots of money and definitely has stature over Evan.
He can say, “If I had been in the Senate, I would not have voted 5 times in one month for health care reform, like Evan Bayh did.”
“I would not have voted to increase the debt ceiling by 2 trillion dollars, like Evan Bayh did.”
“I would not have voted to waste 1 trillion dollars in useless stimulus spending with 9000 earmarks, like Evan Bayh did”
“i would not have voted to cut Medicare by 500 billion, raise insurance premiums, and tax the middle class, like Evan Bayh did.”
And so on and so on and so on etc etc
Much more dramatic changes on the job front are required to pull the Dems out of the world of crap they face in November. Job growth was strong in 1994, leading up to the GOP takeover. Basically, people understand that economies recover from recession. It will take a much greater wave of prosperity throughout the spring and summer to change a whole lot of minds between now and November.
Mark Cali
Do you know the filing deadlines in CT and VT?
David:
CT – May 25
VT – July 19
There’s time to be indecisive.
Phil, Halverson is done in the IL-11. Adam K. is awesome, a Iraq Veteran, and the district leans GOP.
Encouraging turnout in IL as I think the dynamics of the race favored Dem turnout. There was a clear choice to make in both races Quinn vs Hynes, and Alexi vs Hoffman vs Jackson. On the R side you knew Kirk was going to win (so why waste my time) and for governor it was a big jumbled mess. I follow pretty closely, but did not really have a clear choice to make.
And you guys may be curious to know the deadlines for filing:
WA: June 11
WI: July 13
Mark, I think douglass should resign, allow Dubie to take over and have a leg up in Nov.
Then Douglass could announce against Drunken fool Leahy
Jason T, great idea. Dubie definitely could use that boost.
For those who don’t know, Douglas vs. Leahy would be a rematch from 1992 (when Douglas had not been governor yet) and he only lost by a few points.
Douglas can take Leahy down in this wave year. I wrote Douglas and NRSC by the way. Hope y’all do the same.
Would you pay to have an audio tape from Bayh’s office this morning? Dont you know this was a real Maalox moment! LOL
Gary, that would be some entertaining audio tape.
I wonder what happened to all the trolls?
67- david, my brother lives up in Wisconsin, and he says Tommy Thompson WOULD be leaving a high-paying private sector job to run against Feingold. Thus, he says, the rumors are that Tommy is leaning against a run (though hasn’t ruled it out).
72- BayernFan, when you said “Wouldnt it be hilarious if the Dems win all of 3 or 4 Senate races on November 2?”, do you mean ONLY 3 or 4? At first, when I read this, I thought you were rooting for the Dems.
Great News.
The DEM who won the IL Lt. Gov spot, Scott Cohen, was arrested for domestic abuse in 2005. He is a pawn Broker.
What a gift. Quinn has to run with him, and how do you explain that he would a heartbeat away
Don’t get too excited about Linda Lingle’s chances in Hawaii. While she is very popular out there, Inouye is a Hawaiian institution. He’s a Medal of Honor winning WW2 hero, and since the state is majority Asian, he has that advantage too. I think Lingle may be waiting for an open senate seat, which would give her a much better chance.
Brady will bring out the Conservative base, which did not vote here in 2006 and 2008. This will help Kirk and Congressional Races and down ticket.
This unified the IL GOP
Just read Morrissey on Hot Air. He said economists expect the numbers Friday to be a net of 5,000 jobs created and an uptiick to 10.1% unemployment.
Of course, I haven’t seen an economist yet who has made an accurate prediction – ON ANYTHING!
65 – Phil, according to Frank at rightpundits.com , there was a massive outlier among independent men (change in 3 day average of 5 percent) that is due to fall off tomorrow… Still, I don’t see why Obama’s numbers seem to be going up…
AIN, I agree. Lingle and Caputo in WVA will be patient, the samrt way to go
Sean, he rousted the SCOTUS in his speech, brought home liberals.
Jason, that is some very unfortunate information – if you are an Illinois Democrat.
LOL
Phil, watch the MSM tout the 5k number.
Off course CBS fired everyone I think, except the Smurfette
Phil
Reagan asked for a one handed economist. He was tired of the “on the other hand” sppeech from most of them.
Its called the dismal science for a reason.
Dont call it domestic abuse, call him a wife beater. So much more descriptive. NARAL to denounce? Dont hold your breathe, he is a Democrat wife beater.
Yep, lets let the MSM get the positive number of job creation (meager as it is) celebration out of their system.
It won’t drop the rate under 10% regardless how they spin it. They’ll try like hell of course.
In looking at IL for this general election and to get a feel for what has to happen for Kirk and Brady/Dillard to win.
You have to go back to 2002 to see a GE race at the top level where the GOP was competetive. In 2002 GOV race Blago beat Ryan by 52-45
Total major votes cast 3.412 million +236K Blago
Cook County/Chicago 1.312 million cast +452K Blag
Suburban Collar 735K cast Ryan won by 141K
Downstate 1.365 Million 75K margin for Ryan
One can only assume that Cook county will go a little less demcoratic in 2010 then 2002. Democrats have to be depressed by the economy plus county & state taxes have hit residents hard.
Ditto on the suburban votes. Surely the GOP with the economy at their back-two decent candidates plus Alex G & Quinn are Chicago Hacks. Surely the GOP can improve on Ryan’s numbers.
Finally Downstate or really everything not in Chicago & suburbs. This is not monolithic farm country as their is suburban E. St. Louis plus numerous blue collar towns like Rock Island-Rockford-Peoria-Springfield yet Ryan’s 5% margin in 2002 was pitiful. With the economy weak-the farm belt hurting and really this may be the last election before Illinois becames Chicagostate. The democrats in Chicago have pretty much just taken over this state. Surely 40% of the people outside of Chicago land will man up to elect GOP types this year?
still hoping someone other than Brady wins in IL .. Brady came in 6th place in Cook Co. AND in 6th place in every single collar/exurban county in northern IL .. quinn will wipe the floor w/ him in the suburbs if he is the nominee
Erickson at Red State is a moron, he is ruining that site.
He said today that he will vote Fod DEM Roy Barnes in the GA Gov Race.
He also wants Kirk to lose in IL, too send a message
Record time you are wrong. Quinn has 25% approvals and is trying to raise taxes. Quinn is toast
Brady can win. Yeah, he’s by far the weakest candidate in the Chicago suburbs. No doubt about it. Republican primary voters definitely made it hard on themselves in the governor’s race. However, researching Quinn this morning, he really does have horrible numbers and is a tax hiker.
I’m very encouraged for Kirk, and Brady does have a chance which he wouldn’t if the environment was different and Quinn wasn’t the opponent.
True Phil.
#75, YES, PLENTY OF TIME
DSCC on Coats:
“Dan Coats is a federally registered lobbyist whose client lists include banks, private equity firms, and defense contractors. Coats is a Washington DC insider who lined his own pockets as taxpayers spent $700 billion bailing out Wall Street banks. Indianans won’t ignore Dan Coats’ decade as a lobbyist working the system to gain special favors for the banking industry at the time of financial collapse and at the expense of working Americans.”
Dan Coats is Currently a Federally Registered Lobbyist. Dan Coats is currently a federally registered lobbyists, whose clients include banks, private equity firms, and defense contractors. [Lobbying Disclosure Act Database]
Coats Lobbied for Bank of America Just As Bank Took $15 Billion in Bailout Funds. According to filings, Coats lobbied for Bank of America in October 2008, just as the bank was receiving $15 billion in bailout funds. Coats firm was compensated $120,000 in the period just before the Wall Street bailouts.”
Well, the DSCC didn’t wait long did they? Record breaking time.
So, their attack ad is:
Coats, as a hired private citizen, lobbied for a bank bailout, that EVAN BAYH VOTED FOR?
Yeah, great argument. No way it could be spun back against your candidate.
theoneandonly
That’s funny!
Apparently Coats has been registered to vote in Virginia for about a decade now.
When Bayh ran for Senate, he had a record as a fairly moderate and popular governor.
Now his record is of a liberal senator. In an extreme ant-incumbent year.
Sam you’re missing his primary defense against Coats!
Don’t vote for the lobbyist with bad ideas that tricked me into a bad vote!
Don’t vote for the man with a bad idea, vote for the man WHO VOTED BADLY ON THE SENATE FLOOR.
Right-as any noticed where Bayh raised his 14 million? Much of it came from lobbyists for financial & drug companies.
non issue on Coats.-At least he voted?-I might add that Coates also served in Germany as an ambassador. Where he is voted is not a biggie for me.
Election Projection: How the GOP can win back the Senate
….although, I personally think it more strategic they take the House back and are a few short on the Senate, in order to obstruct but not not be in the driver’s seat to shoulder all the blame…or be in the position for Obama to triangulate.
#110/#111 -
You just have to shake your head at the logical absurdity of some of these arguments.
As I have maintained (I should stop using this term, it is so Obamaesque), 2010 in Indiana will be a vote on Obama, Bayh, the Dems and 10% unemployment. In a conservative state.
Coats is not a slam dunk, but he will certainly make this race extremely competitive, I’d expect. I’d have hated to have seen the GOP give potentially vulnerable senators a pass.
That said, Gillibrand is absolutely ripe for the picking, but Pataki needs to make up his mind NOW. If it’s not Pataki, then someone else (e.g., Lazio) needs a longer lead time, particularly since Gillibrand is so adept at fund-raising.
Bayh is not happy today.
Coats will be able to raise hundreds of thousands very fast.
OK I give Rasmussen 1 day to poll Indiana and Illinois. who else wants to bet?
LOL…”what’s that AVATAR thing again?” sometimes it’s just too funny!
Wes,
Tom Jensen from PPP(D) is saying the same thing I said yesterday regarding Kirk:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/giannoulias-and-kirk-both-pretty-weak.html
“Kirk didn’t do all that well as the campaign heated up either though. In that December survey he had 41% to 3% for Patrick Hughes and a total of 10% for the variety of lower tier candidates in the race. Based on the final results he appears to have picked up about 37% of the undecideds from that point on to 35% for Hughes and 28% for the assortment of less serious candidates. Given how little money any of his opponents were spending that’s not too impressive.”
I just learned that Scott Cohen, the Democratic nominee for Lt. Gov. in Illinois, is a pawn broker. He’ll be Pat Quinn’s running mate. With the mess Quinn’s got the state in, maybe we’ll need a pawn broker as Lt. Gov.
The Dems have an all Cook County Slate. The GOP has two candidates from suburban Cook Count (Kim and Topinka), two candidates from the collar counties (Kirk and Enriquez), and two from Downstate (Plummer and Rutherford). If Brady edges out Dillard, that would be three from Downstate.
The GOP needs to win Downstate by 300,000 to 400,000 votes to have a real shot at winning statewide.
That smell? Its the DSCC pissing their pants. Do you love the fear in that press release. Print release and then think about the consequences.
I’d rather be Kirk right now than Alexi.
The smell of fear is very strong indeed.
Phil,
The NRSC ad against Alexi is hilarious.
Looks like we may have a positive jobs number on Friday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35213567
===
They expected a 10,000 job gain in December. We lost 80,000.
Tommy, I have three words for you: Deeds, Coakley, Corzine. Enough said. I predicted Kirk would what he got, I remind you.
Hannity is the headliner for the NRCC dinner.
#125
Jensen and I seem to be on the same page regarding how to interpret the primary results.
For you polling/electoral college experts out there. I know we are 33 months out from the election and a lot of things can happen, but I am wondering what states do you think we can start flipping back Red for 2012. I am thinking Indiana, Nevada and Florida are safe bets to make at this time. I am trying to remember did Obama win Montana? If so Montana also. can people weigh in on this?
DCH,
Montana did not flip in ‘08.
I suspect North Carolina is a near certainty to flip at this point.
I’d much rather be Kirk and win a primary by 38 points over my nearest than the G Man and win by 5 or 6. I think I’ve stated my case.
George
thanks for the update. The GOP looks like a classic balanced ticket with a good geographic balance.
I think its clear with the brady vote downstate plus the big vote for Adam A downstate that there is teabag mad at pols.
No doubt Kirk would have loved to have gotten +60% overall but there are tons of reasons for that. Can you say Cap/Trade. Kirk also made the decision to skip debates. When you have a 30% lead you can do that but you pay a price. All the others gang up on you. Kirk made the decision to skip 1st because the crazy guy calling him a homo & a pedafile would be there. Who needs that junk. In addition all the guys would be pounding on him.
So when you consider the anti-Chicago feeling downstate-skipping debates-teabag fever over bankbailouts-cap & trade getting 56% was pretty good. Kirk just needed to survive the primary. He did that.
He won by a solid margin and still has most of his money.
Let me also say that mark Kirk is almost certainly going to get a Scott Brown visit.
Well, Tommy, you made the interpretation. Given your record, by definition, I have to say it’s the wrong one. That’s jvst my interpretation based on the available data.
“In the red zone
Share Post PrintFebruary 3, 2010 Posted by Scott at 6:46 AM
Stumping in New Hampshire yesterday, Barack Obama talked up Obamacare with a metaphor drawn from football. “We had to go into overtime,” Obama said. “But we are now in the red zone. That’s exactly right. We’re in the red zone. We’ve got to punch it through.”
I’ll meet him halfway on that. I think he’s in the red zone too, just not that one. “
Wes
That was uncalled for. His guess is as good as yours at the moment, no need for the gratuitous insult.
DCH – I would think Virginia is a likely flip
Let me also point the Chicago/Cook County paradox
It took 4 hours last night to count 4100 precincts.
In the 3 1/2 hours that the election office has been open the last 96 precincts have not been counted yet. I will let you stat guys do that math on that process
Apparently the St. Clair county sheriff-downstate near East St. Louis is still trying to local the officer & the box from a precinct down there. Every once in a while an election officer will stop into a bar on the way to the election commission. Things just happen after that as Tiger Woods can testify on.
Wes, I’m pointing out that my intepretation was the same was as the pollster lionized by many on this blog.
Anyone going to purchase Sanford’s book?
That was essentially my interpretation of things regarding Kirk, Rdel. He clearly starts off in a stronger position than the G Man.
Look for the same reason that a bunch of reliably red states went for Obama ( the indys broke heavily the other way ) there is pretty good argument to be made that several normally reliably blue states would be in play and switch at this point. The entire midwest, Pennsylvania and even NJ could do so. When its 2 to 1 against you with the largest voting block, its hard to make that up with your own loyal voters.
I wouldn’t be insulting Tommy if he hadn’t fired the first salvo last night, Gary. He wanted to start something, so now he has to live with the consequences of it.
Wes,
You can delve into non-sequiters but you really haven’t disputed the point that Tom Jensen and I have made, which is that the undecideds did not break Kirk’s way to the proportion one would expect of a guy of Kirk’s purported caliber competing against someone you claimed to be a total clown in Hughes.
This analysis has nothing to do with a general election matchup. It’s retrospective look at the GOP primary results.
That’s just a recipe for fraud, Rdel.
I’ve argued no non sequiturs, Tommy. Hughes got 19% of the vote. Kirk got 57%. By my math, that’s a 38-point spread. For you and Jensen to argue that’s a poor showing for Kirk makes no sense.
I cannot stay long at the moment, but I just wanted to check in and see a bit of the IL discussion..
Late yesterday afternoon, someone asked if we would start a pool on specific questions.
I said that Kirk would win with 57% and looks like I was right on the money. I said Alexi would win by 3, looks like he won by 5, and that Quinn and Dillard would be very narrow winners, perhaps recount territory. Wow.
When I left home this morning, they were discussing recounts on both sides for Governor and saying it could take up to 6 months??!!
Based on the margin of his lead and the outstanding vote, Quinn is probably going to hang on, which is great for Republicans.
Last I heard Brady’s lead over Dillard was down to 503 votes, and Brady is likely to get very little in what is left to be counted, so Dillard may very well pull it out…
Brady/Dillard, Dillard/Brady, if only there were a way to get them to run as a ticket together this fall…That would involve our 27 year old (probable) GOP nominee dropping out though.
Jason Plummer has a bright future in the GOP, but he was able to (maybe) buy the nomination by spending the most money. Same on the Dem side, which, where you all know by know, the Dem nominee to be a heartbeat or an arrest away from the Governorship is a dude who runs a pawn shop!
Wes – TB- can I referee? Lets direct at the real enemy, ok?
TB
I take your point. If you take Tribune 47Kirk 8Hughes 10 others 35 Undecided–Kirk got around 30% of the undecideds
RAS had it 53Kirk-18 Hughes-12 others–17% undecided. Under this scenerio Kirk got 20% or so of the undecided.
There’s no doubt there was some reluctance among conservatives to embrace Kirk. Lets be honest the GOP Gov’s race inspired the folks to come out. Folks were not storming to either vote for Kirk or against him. Kirk was an afterthought as his victory was pretty certain. Lots of conservatives came out for Brady & Adam A. I will rely on others but it looks like 30K or 4% of the GOP primary voters did not vote in the senate primary? Too lazy to calculate numbers.
That means lots of folks were undecided on Kirk.
That being said I go back to my golden oldies on Kirk
a. Downstaters perceive him as a Chicago GOP moderate
b. Downstaters just are sick of Chicago types running the state and the GOP.
c. Cap & Trade
d. Kirk did not debate-that hurt Coakley too.
I will say that GE is a different matter as Alex G. will be a HC supporter-Obama’s choice-Chicago democrat-far left liberal who is ethically challenged. Kirk might lag Brady a bit but he will rack up big margins downstate in IL
http://townhall.com/columnists/BrionMcClanahan/2010/02/03/funding_the_aristocracy_nancy_pelosi_and_taxpayer_joy_rides
All hail Countess Nancy and Lord Harry!
Long live King Barrack the Compassionate, exalted restributor of wealth!
Labor Department to Revise annual job numbers. I guess Obama can tell everyone that the Recession was worse than realized giving him cover when a few jobs are reporte be added on Friday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNSc0oQ0vb4M&pos=10
Rdel,
Agreed about the general.
I was just engaging wes in some retrospective analysis of the primary results.
Bill White will be a strong candidate but it is still a Republican year.
That is part of the BLS’s Annual Revision, it was announced several months ago.
#148
She has to get the benefits as speaker while she still is!
dch,
While it’s very early to be thinking about 2012, I honestly LOVE these Electoral Map projections, so I’ll weigh in.
(A) First, let’s start with the tragedy of 2008: Obama 365 McCain 173
ps- Did you all know that Obama picked off an electoral vote from Nebraska? I never knew that!
(B) One thing you may be forgetting is that the score automatically shifts in our favor due to REAPPORTIONMENT! According the the most mathematically-conservative estimate, the following states will gain electoral votes: AZ, FL, GA, NV, TX(3), UT; while the following will lose electoral votes: IA, LA, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA.
This would result in a net change of +5 in our direction, thus: Obama 360-178.
(C) I think that most of us agree that the following states should not have gone to Obama in 2008, and as things stand now, they will certainly not repeat this mistake in 2012: NV(6), IN(11), NC(15), FL(28), and that doggone Nebraska CD2 (which BHO won by only 3,000 votes). Switch these and we get: Obama 299-239.
(D) The next level are states I think are at least are slightly tilting our way, and away from Obama. We can’t take them for granted, but they look very winnable: CO(9), IA(6), VA(13). Switch these, and it’s now Obama 271-267. We are on the cusp of victory!
(E) The next set of targets include: OH(19), WI(10), NH(4), MI(16), and PA(20). I personally think Wisconsin is the most vulnerable right now, though Ohio and NH look tempting too.
151. Bill White has an uncharismatic persona and nobody outside of Houston where he was mayor by default knows much about him. He built a reputation (false) as a “good administrator” but his marketing team is going to be hard pressed to find real issues for him to run on. He is as strong a candidate as the Dems can put up, I agree that much, but he would lose even in a Democratic year.
LOL!!! Bill White will get 39% just like most Democrats!
TB
I certainly take your point and will raise it by 50 cents. If Kirk would have been under 50% it would danger-danger will Robinson. When you in a multi candidate primary and get under 50% you have some serious problems. Same with an incumbent when, like Corzine, when a nobody gets 20% or so in a primary.
By some accounts folks seem happy with GOP primary results in 10th-11th & 14th congressional districts.
“So why do we expect mediocre folks with huge egos to create jobs, turn the economy around, and provide for our medical care, housing, and energy?
Most politicians could not succeed in the private sector, yet we want them to focus on the economy and jobs, to fix whatever is broken. They claim to create millions of jobs. Obama claims to have “saved” millions more. Bull. Every job they create forces some guy with a real job to pay for it. Jobs are created when free people find a need for a product or service and fill it. “Created” jobs can cause temporary stimulus, but they cost us all in the long run.”
Exactly……
We have a Community Organizer President and a Congress that is 85% lawyers!
Their main talents are taking money from producers upon threat of legal action ie governement force (ok, we can say they are still doing this right now lol) and to look good, talk slick, and get people to like them either on juries or in voting booths….
We expect their government interventions into the economy and other things they know nothing about to work? We the people need to reasses what we expect of our elected officials……
If we keep expecting them to “fix” the economy or “do something” about medical care/insurance they will just wreak more desturtion on us and set up schemes that empower themselves and government at our expense!
We need to start demand of politicans that they quite simply stayout of affairs that are not Consitutionally permited for them or common sense dictates they cannot do well…..
In other words, we need to stop asking politicans “what can you do for me/my town/state?” and start asking them “please leave us well enough alone and concentrate on core governmental functions ie security and protection of our individual rights/freedoms”….
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/do_americans_expect_too_much_f.html
Let me add to Tina’s point about the BLS adjustment. This is done to account for self employment and small business jobs that are hard to account for on a month to month basis.
its not strange to me but I cannot remember a downward revision. So often we see upward revisions in household employment numbers. That’s been the pattern for years as some many people are outsourced, like myself, into a service sector/self employed job.
Now apparently people have gone from self employment to retirement or unemployment.
its a small number 842K is alike 1/2 of one percent of household employment.
It might bump the rate up? You often see a bump in household employment at the same time you see a seasonally adjustment down in employment.
Maybe Tina can sort of this stuff as I only casually look at these stats.
Bill White will be lucky to break even in Harris County.
Trust me.
redstate on Kirk race
http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2010/02/03/a-few-words-on-redstate-and-mark-kirk/
Can you say NEA payoff????
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/02/obama_and_education_pork_you_c.html
“America is addicted to education largess. Between 1900 and 2008, our total government spending on education rose from 1% of the GDP to 7% in 2008. In 1919-20, the cost per pupil in constant (2005-06) dollars was $668; by the beginning of WWII, it had risen to $1,404. Upward movement continued, so in 1949-50, it was $2,188, and by 1959-60, it was $3,190 per pupil. By the end of the 20th century, it hit $10,000, and by 2003-05, it was $11,000 [1]. Education munificence has even outstripped health care appetites. We are also spending more on buildings and facilities.
The enterprise is also incredibly labor-intensive, far exceeding practices in private businesses [2]. While corporations automate to cut costs and improve quality, schools relentlessly expand payrolls without improving quality. In fact, by the mid-1990s, salaries for the venerable classroom teacher, once the major budgetary item, consumed less than half of all school salaries. This was true even though shrinking class size requires hiring more teachers per school. Schools with “at-risk” students can rival luxury resorts where attendants outnumber guests. In 1949-50, the ratio of pupil to school staff member was 19.3 to 1; by 2004, it had fallen to 8 to 1. In the ’60s, there were barely any “instructional aides” (1.3% of all staff); by 2004, nearly one of eight staff members was an “instructional aide.”
The incestuous cabal of self-growing big government/big public union needs to be broken NOW if we are to repair our nation!
AIN – just a quibble about your electoral flips.
I think Ohio will revert to red much before states like NV, IA and CO. It’s the nature of the populace.
You guys heard of McDonald’s new Obama Value Meal?
Order anything you like and the guy behind you has to pay for it.
drudge siren – brown demands to be seated. why is he not seated yet is my question
“The merit of a job-creation bill is irrelevant. People need work, and if a school district can afford to hire thousands of “Educational Assistants II” to supervise recess and lunch, why complain? The issues are truth in advertising and sustaining a horrific incentive structure. General Motors was once described as a health insurance provider that occasionally manufactured cars. American education has become a huge pork-laden enterprise, where few are ever fired, that occasionally imparts learning.”
Do you think that Democrats or Republicans
bear more responsibility for the current state of
the economy? If Democrats, press 1. If
Republicans, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Democrats 46%
Republicans 39%
Not Sure 15%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_203.pdf
168. I blame Bush for the fact people are forgetting to blame Bush.
GPO I have given up on Redstate.
Erikson is a fool, who says he will vote for Roy Barnes, and wants Kikr to lose in IL.
Here is a great example how the elitest “I know what is best for you” attitude sticks the the average American with higher cost by removing their personal freedom to chose via government intervention:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Massachusetts-provides-a-look-at-higher-utility-bills-to-come-83455592.html
“Massachusetts provides a look at higher utility bills to come
By: Mark Tapscott
Editorial Page Editor
02/03/10 1:05 PM EST
Massachusetts consumers will pay higher utility bills as a result of a state law passed in 2008 that requires energy companies doing business in the Bay State to buy electrical power generated using green production resources, according to the Boston Globe.
“The four investor-owned utilities in Massachusetts – National Grid, NStar, Western Massachusetts Electric Co., and Unitil Corp. – are soliciting bids from producers of energy from renewable resources. Bidders have until Feb. 19 to submit proposals for 10- to 15-year contracts to sell power to the utilities, which do not make their own power, but rather buy and distribute it.,” according to the Globe.
“The utilities must enter into contracts with renewable energy suppliers under state environmental legislation passed in 2008. The power companies and the state Department of Energy Resources will choose a short list of bids by early May, and submit contracts for approval in late July,” the Globe said.
The Obama administration is seeking to force a nationwide move in the same direction, but using massive federal subsidies to renewable energy producers to keep them in business regardless of market conditions, regulatory proposals limiting the use of traditional fossil fuels, and government-created economic incentives to corporations to convert to green energy sources.”
Oh, yeah – the buddies of Big Governement/statists ie crony capatists of politically connected “green” industries make out like bandits!
Yeah, we need more government intervention to “do something” about the “enegry crsis” that their previous bad government interventions created!
You think its bad where you are at? Look at this:
Ocean City is one of the 19 metro areas that reported unemployment rates of at least 15 percent. Twelve of those are in California and three are in Michigan, the department said.
Take a look at ethanol plants if you want to see where these green alt energy plants will end up, even with subsidies.
GPO I have given up on Redstate.
I did a long time ago. I thought they were very destructive.
The creepy religious faith of “man-made global warming”:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/How-climate-change-fanatics-corrupted-science-83396362.html
“Like the theorists who invented epicycles to explain away the failure of Ptolemaic theory to account for astronomical observations, they have distorted science in the interest of something that resembles religious dogma.
The secular religion of global warming has all the elements of a religious faith: original sin (we are polluting the planet), ritual (separate your waste for recycling), redemption (renounce economic growth) and the sale of indulgences (carbon offsets). We are told that we must have faith (all argument must end, as Al Gore likes to say) and must persecute heretics (global warming skeptics are like Holocaust deniers, we are told).
People in the grip of such a religious frenzy evidently feel justified in lying, concealing good evidence and plucking bad evidence from whatever flimsy source may be at hand.”
Need we be reminded again as to what the ultimate endstate of this relgious cult is: self-suicide of the human race since we are the “problem” that is “killing” the planet!
GPO I have given up on Redstate.
Erikson is a fool, who says he will vote for Roy Barnes, and wants Kikr to lose in IL.
Comment by Jason T — February 3, 2010 @ 1:48 pm
I dont go there as much as I used to, but in the link I posted he says he believes Kirk has good instincts, but wont personally give money to a pro-choice candidate. says he is obviously better than the D
Now Mr. Erickson has problems with Coats.
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/02/03/shoot-me-now-please/
Brown attorneys to file suit so that he is seated.
Brown wants to be seated by 11 AM tomorrow, 2/4.
He needed to attack this and blamethe Obumbler every day.
This is part of the culture of corruption and lies.
Erikson wants the GOP to have about 30 Senators who are all as far Right wing as he is.
I am very disappointed in Red Red State and FR, tow sites that I looked at every day.
I have taken both off my bookmarks
#177 Brandon, I completely disagree with Erickson on this one. Coats is a great candidate. Erickson is complaining that Coats is a retread. People in Indiana know Coats’ record and what they will get with him. Bayh has unmasked himself as a closet liberal. Coats couldn’t prove that back then but now he can. I can’t think of a better conservative candidate to take on Bayh than Coats with the exception of Pence. Coats already has a substantial fundraising network that he will have to dust to cobwebs off of.
Brown not being seated is complete BS. Time to take Reid to the cleaners.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1230376
It is being elevated, but now Dufus Duval is not available to sign off.
Kirk claims he’s up 12:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Kirk-claims-a-double-digit-lead-in-Illinois-83459632.html
Good morning to all (at least here in HI). As I read it, the best part of that article was;
Mike Madigan, the powerful Democratic Speaker of the Illinois House and chairman of the state Democratic Party,
…refused to endorse Giannoulias after he had received the Democratic nomination, refused to take his phone calls, and even refused to put his photograph on the party’s campaign website. “I want some answers. The allegations are there,” Madigan said at the time. “My history in politics, if you were alleged to be connected to the mob, you were done. But life seems to go on.”
Tony Soprano would indeed be proud.
I love the way the Mayor of Las Vegas takes on Obama!
George, that is big. Madigan, as State House Speaker, is the most powerful DEM in the State, bigger than Daley.
But I have heard this crap before, in the end they will be kissing each others butt.
That hot blue on blue action is pretty exciting isnt George?
“Lost” has become like a L Ron Hubbard Book.
My God it was terrible last night. The Time Travel angle destroyed the Show
That’s a Madigan quote on Alexi from 2006. He never forgave him for winning the primary for Treasurer.
Don’t see Madigan wanting to do too much for Alexi or Quinn.
It’s going to be very tough sledding for whomever is Governor for the next 5 years, and it would work out better for his daughter, the AG Lisa Madigan, if a Republican is Governor for a bit after next year.
Obama hated Vegas because all Muslims do.
Brady is up 750 votes
When I mentioned a few weeks ago that Obama was tupid, I remember a few (Polaris, WEC) jump on me.
Well, here’s my new friend:
Las Vegas mayor: Obama is “a real slow learner”
Rel slow learner, stupid. Same thing.
stupid, not tupid.
I stopped the Red State e-mail updates and removed the bookmarks there too. They have lost their minds and are becoming more and more ridiculous everyday. When they start saying they will vote for the Democrat candidate to “make a point” with the struggle we’ve just gone through with super majority situation in DC, it’s time to write them off.
White is within 9. My Dem friend in the Philly machine thinks White will upset Perry. I disagree but do find it surprising that White is within single digits.
It is about time that Brown made a stink about not being seated. It is absurd.
As for Redstate, Erik seems to have gone off the rails in the last 12 months.
Corey, even though the jury is still out on Brady, we were lucky last night.
The 3 DEM’s who would have been very hard to beat, Hynes, Hamos, and Hoffman were defeated.
We pretty much won the Treasurer and Controller races for November last nigh too.
This nitwit Pawn Broker, Cohen, is a gift. He will really hurt Quinn as his running mate. The Guy was arrested for beating his wife
MD, your Dem friend in Philly needs to get out more.
Wasn’t he the one saying Corzine would steal the election in NJ?
Drudge
Goodman – Obama is not OUR Friend.
Goodman’s trashing of Obama was hilarious but he won’t be the last Dem to do this. Just watch. Byah will be trashing Obama publicly by May and probably a half dozens inc. Demrats in the senate will be doing the same.
Won’t work boys and girls. Your about to be fired.
MD, I have given up on Red State like I did Polipundit.
Erickson and Oak Leaf need to be let go
White is only closer because of the GOP Primary, once that is settled, the GOP will soar
I’ve been out of the loop at work today, so not sure if there are new numbers that have Brady increasing from 503 to 700 or something. Given that it was said the remaining precincts were from Cook County, that would be tough to do.
Haven’t heard the story yet on Cohen and domestic abuse, but basically nobody knows anything about the guy.
Yes, happy that Quinn (probably), Alexi, and Seals in my district are the opponents. Same with Cohen… Dems nominated the weaker candidates for Treasuer and (probably) Comptroller too. Not sure if that one has been formally called yet.
Big missed opportunity for the GOP perhaps though in IL 8 against Melissa Bean.
He had Corzine winning by 2. In fairness, he did say 5 days before the POTUS election that Obama was up by 7 in PA with a bullet that indiated the trend was moving even more his way.
There were people on this blog predicting that McCain would win PA the day before the election.
He won by 11.
He also called the Hillary/Obama primary spot on.
He is about 80% accurate. I personally think he is dead wrong (and have told him so) on TX. He just laughs it off.
Bayh and the Blue Liars never wanted a vote on Health Care. They are now on record for supporting Socialism. Lincoln and Bayh will pay the price, no more political cover
Perry will win by around 56-44 or so. Every cycle people outside the state talk about competitive races in Texas. In 2002 people in the east talked about how Ron Kirk was running neck and neck with Cornyn. We all know how that one came out.
I know I’m preaching to the choir MD, but really, people outside of Texas are absolutely clueless.
Corey,
I expect to see your blog pick up now regarding IL politics.
Phil,
That is how I feel as well.
JT,
Byah is getting a top-shelf competitor who will have the $ to run an effective campaign and is thought of fondly by many in IN.
Byah is one of the biggest frauds in the senate.
JT,
PP has become an absolute joke site.
Thanks MD, but I really won’t have time for that, I am afraid. I am going to have to find a way to cover American Idol in a couple of weeks….
This summer, I am going to do a “Race of the Day” look at every contest for U.S. Senate and Governor in 2010.
Corey , Walsh in the IL-8 could win. that is a big GOP district, and Bean voted for Health Care.
We did really well in the IL-11, Adam K will beat Halverson for a GOP Pcikup. Hultgren will beat Foster in the IL-14.
Corey,
The people are demanding it!!!
There would have been other stronger candidates in IL 8. I never really gave Walsh much thought. His name was just in the paper though because the guy Joe Walsh from the Eagles sued him for using one of his songs in a campaign ad of some sort.
Must have bene a big Tea Party turnout in that part of the suburbs. The only incumbent State legislator to lose, was one from my neighboring State House district, in part of that area, who lost to a more conservative candidate.
MD
Just like folks in Philly should not be commenting on quarterback play in Dallas, they should also not be commenting on Texas politics. They really dont have a clue.
White was running for Senator, and then switched with the long shot hope that Hutch and Perry would damage each other so much that he might slip in. Wont happen, Perry is up so big on Hutch that he sails right in.
Bill White is unknown in any part of Texas EXCEPT HARRIS CO. That is Houston. That is his power base, but it wont be nearly enough against a popular Governor who really has managed the State pretty well.
Tell him I got as much money on Perry as he can handle and see if he wants to put money where his mouth is, instead of where his brains are.
Scott Brown threaten to sue to get sworn in, and lo and behold it gets scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. I guess Scott Brown just showed the other senators he doesn’t need to grow a pair, he already has them.
I guess IL 8-11-14-17 are all possible pickups.
7 hours and 12 precincts counted in Cook County. Folks these are touch screen machines now. This is paper ballot stuff
If I was Hynes I would be freaking. Did I mention some precincts are in his strongeholds
I think the Democrats are terrified that if they appear like they are obstructing the duly elected Senator, that they wont be able to travel in their own States without disguises and armed guards! I am only halfway kidding. Lots of folks are plenty mad at arrogant behavior. Look at Ben Nelson, he has to order pizza to be delivered.
GM,
Heh. I bet him $50 with 2 to 1 odds so I will only get $25 if I win. That is how sure I am that Perry is going to prevail by double digits.
Seriously, White won’t do any better than break even in Harris County. The areas outside of Houston he’ll get murdered – Deer Park, Clear Lake, towards Katy.
He carries Travis County, inside the city limits of Dallas, Houston, Hispanic South Texas and gets blasted everywhere else.
I know people in Katy and it is safe to say that they will all vote for Perry.
I don’t think the media has, or will, focus on how damaged the Democratic ticket in Illinois really is.
First, we got a Senate nominee who approved loans to mob figures when he was chief loan officer, whose family bank is under federal supervision because it bled about $50 million out of the bank (someone n Kirk’s campaign should look at how much family money was going into Giannoulias’ campaign during this period), and whose financil shenanigans with the Bright Star college fund (parent ssavings for their kids’ education) cost the fund a ton of money.
A candidate for Governor who was Blago’s running mate twice.
A Lt. Gov. candidate who is a pawn broker and recently beat a domestic violence rap.
An attorney general candidate whose father is the Speaker of Illinos House and a real political insider.
A treasurer candidate who was chief of staff to Giannoulias during th eBright Star fiasco.
Capitol fax reports today rumbles within Dem ranks of trying to “nudge” Scott Cohen off the ticket as Lt. Gov.
The Pubbies will need to be tough and sophisticated, but if they can’t hang the Springfield mess around this ticket, they wil deserve to lose.
George,
Your acting as if any of the above is a problem.
Corey, Bassi of Palatine lost because she would not sign a no tax pledge
George well said.
The Blago trial will be this Summer also, and Resko will be star of that show. Alexi is screwed
Brown will seated Tomorrow? The Unions are slitting their wrists.
Deval Patrick had to get it done, it is a election year
Ouch. 800,000+ jobs lost in 2009 after government revisions. More bad news for Obama and Dem congressmen. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNSc0oQ0vb4M&pos=10
George, even the liberals on the North Shore hate Taxes.
The New Trier Tax vote went down 63 to 37
What bank gave Obama the loan to buy the land next to his house? Was it this bank at you now are referencing?
No I think George was just reciting a long list of problems that the democrats have.
What’s unreal is that we have a 9 month campaign.
It will be a long nine months too, Rdel.
MD
the easiest money you ever made. If I were you, I would goad him constantly to double the bet. Just like backgammon, get it up to some real money. Best way to teach a Democrat to keep their mouth shut.
99 – “He said today that he will vote Fod DEM Roy Barnes in the GA Gov Race.”
—
WHAT???
Granted the GOP 7 way primary is getting exhausting but Barnes?? Not even Tim will vote for Barnes.
Hawk, Erickson is nuts. He is from the Al Salvi wing.
For 2012 I have it in the momen
BHO:204EV
GOP:299EV
Undecided:35EV
It’s good to know I’m not the only one who despises Salvi, Jason.
Gary, Alexi’s family owns a Privately owned Broadway Bank on the North Side of Chicago.
He as Chief Loan officer gave a Million Dollar loan to a mobster. He also allowed Resko To bounce 500k in checks there.
In 2006, the Chicago media went after him, but it was a awful GOP year in IL, and Alexi rode the wave to win the Treasurer Race.
He is a 33 year old scummy punk
By the way, Jason, I heard last night Salvi was on TV in Illinois briefly. can you confirm, and if so, was he wearing a dunce cap?
Most likely the G Man will lose badly to Kirk, Jason.
Wes, they tried to Salvi Mark Kirk yesterday, but it did not work because Kirk is Top Tier.
Wes, Salvi’s wife ran for something and lost. they live in the IL-8, Bean’s district.
Wes, this Lt Governor for the Dem’s, Cohen, is a Godsend, he will really hurt Quinn and the ticket
Toomy_Boy was doing everything he could earlier to say Kirk’s 57-19 victory over Hughes somehow reflected poorly on Kirk, Jason. i don’t know about you, but by my math, a 38-point spread is a political landslide.
She ran for Bean’s seat in 2006, Jason. She lost the primary, and Salvi blew up at her opponent on a radio show. I’m sure his outburst didn’t help her one bit with voters.
“Erikson wants the GOP to have about 30 Senators who are all as far Right wing as he is.”
—
There is nothing wrong with wanting that number of dark red senators, hell I’d go further and want 40, difference is I realize those 30 or 40 are only good with another handful or more senators that may have to be a different shade of red or purple.
Here is the rotten truth behind CrappyCare – it will get your freaking killed early – well except if you ar politcally connected!:
http://rightwingnews.com/#post7623
“What. An. Outrage.
This is despicable.
This child has a heart attack and the hospital staff do nothing.
This is the treatment the common people get. Brock Lesnar had to flee Canadian healthcare when he grew ill. He said it nearly killed him.
But, if you are one of the elite, you get different treatment”
This outrage is what the socialists/leftists/democrats want for us!
Their is a “moral imperative” to shove government run HC down our throats – more like a moral outrage IHMO!
The only thing “equal” about this is that the average American citizen would be forced to pay more, lose tons of freedom, and die early and in more pain – all while the politically connected cheat the system and loot us!
This is exactly why medical care or health insurance can never become a “collective” government run system – its gets politicized and the weakest and most vunerable get screwed?
What alternatives or choices did this family have – answer: none!
What can they do about this outrage – answer: nothing! You cant appeal or fight the national government!
If we keep medical care and the payment for it individual/family choices then we will always have alternatives both for treatment and funding of it!
I read Jenson’s analysis that Kirk somehow looked to be weak according to the primary results. 57% is weak? He ran strong in the suburbs and pretty well downstate. I know he didn’t have much in the way of competition, but if you look at his vote totals he got a helluva lot of votes.
Folks,
Did the Senate take any votes today? When are those controversial nominees to be voted on?
I don’t see how voting for Roy Barnes and cheering for Makr Kirk to lose helps Erickson’s case, Knight.
We kill HC Reform and the thanks we get is continued runon posts? Does it require a stake through the heart or what?
“Erickson is nuts. He is from the Al Salvi wing.”
—
He’s not (or used to not be) but he seems to be doing one hell of an impression lately.
Phil, in a four-way race with one loon calling him a homo pedophile and some concerns among the party as a whole because of his C&T vote, Kirk took 57% of the vote and beat Al Salvi clone Hughes by a 38-point margin. Naturally Tommy_Boy and Tom Jensen think that’s a poor showing. The math’s just not adding up on that analysis for me.
246 – I don’t either.
It’s Wilye’s reason to live, Gary. He’d probably die if he hadn’t those War and Peace-sized posts to torture us with.
Pretty close.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/IL_Governor_0202.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Kirk did not run one TV ad for the Primary. If he did he would have had 80%.
All the buzz was on the 3 way race with Alexi/Hoffman/Jackson
New IL Numbers at http://thecapitolfaxblog.com
Wes, I just got shredded at FR last night for defending Kirk. They were going after Coats, Castle, and Brown too. I think I have had enough over there.
I want Numbers to stop the Socialists and Obama, great if conservative candidates win, but I do not want 35 Senate Seats
I told you not too long ago, Jason: Freepers are psychos. I’ve refused to go to that blog ever since I stumbled across it in 2005 and saw how radical many of the posters there were.
Phil – Jensen (PPP) can Eeyore all he wants about Kirk’s results. Remember this is the same buffoon who spun his own final prediction of a Brown 5-point victory, and called it “within the margin of error”. Look at the hard numbers. That’s why we’re poll geeks. We don’t need to get suckered into anyone else’s spin and make conclusions based on hard numbers. Like Wes said, a 35 point victory is just that: a landslide.
How go things, Marv?
One last thing on the Texas governor’s race. KBH should just drop out and announce she will complete her term in the Senate. She won’t and I know why. She’s raised and spent millions and she can’t just crap out on her contributors before the voting no matter how hopeless. She’s gon too far.
She’s got to be very sorry she made this run. I don’t know what she was thinking. Someone gave her some terrible political advice. Just shows how disconnected one can get in the Washington bubble.
Every other contested statewide race yesterday had a razor-thin margin, but Kirk won in a blowout. Somehow that reflects a poor performance on his part. Such an analysis smacks of one thing to me: sour grapes.
If she really wants to be Governor–and why one would wnat to be Governor of Texas when it’s a fairly weak political position is beyond me, Phil–then she should wait till Perry retires. With this quixotic run, I’d say chances are good that she’s eliminated any chance of ever becoming Governor now.
261 – state dog catcher may be open to her though.
If I had my choice, I’d much rather be a Senator than a Governor personally.
#247 & 251 I post ONE article on HC in about a week and you guys whine lol
Yeah, until Congress abjourns for the year we are one 24 hr notice away from the House craming down the Senate CrappyCare bill….
Dont doubt that the powergrabing Obama left wont do it if they see an opening to get the votes – watch for it when the number of D retirements get past critical mass!
Those “retiring” leftists are rubber stamp “yes” votes for the regressive crowd!
Kay Bailey bet on the fact that Texans did not want Perry to win another 4 years after being in Office for over 10 years.
She lost that bet
That’s not the only overlong, meandering post you’ve put up since Obamacare became moribund, Wilye.
Wes,
Things going well here. How u?
In his book Running for Office, Ron Faucheux describes a key element to a campaign as timing, Jason. KBH apparently lost her sense of that this cycle.
I’m all right.
For 2012 I have it in the moment
BHO:204EV
GOP:299EV
Undecided:35EV
Bailout should never had tossed her hat into te race.
Did the US Senate take any votes of importance today? Brown is due there tomorrow, correct?
Erik has really gone off the deep end. I am a conservative but I understand that not every R will be as conservative as I am. For the record, I am also not nuts about Kirk but he is better than any D in IL.
I flat out don’t like Castle but understand that he is an electable R in DE. There are some who believe that AL R’s can win anywhere. That is simply not true and whether I like it or not is besides the point.
As for Perry/White, yes it is going to be easy money.
It’s really too early for that, Benny. First, we don’t know what the Electoral College will look like after reapportionment. Second, we don’t know what shape the eocnomy will be in in three years. Third, we don’t know who Obama’s opponent will be. It’s a good try, but really this far out it’s impossible to make such a prediction.
Great post, MD.
Wes,
We also really have no clue who the GOP candidate will be in 12. We all like to guess but it could be someone we are hardly familiar with as of yet.
***Nu thread***
WEC
that’s correct-passing the senate bill remains a Pelosi option up to 01-02-2011. Til this session of congress ends.
Ironically the democrats could lose 60 seats in Nov then come in for a lameduck vote to pass HC bill of senate.
Don’t ask me why but for some reason-computer wise-24 precincts are tied together in Cook County by some sort of odd counting/sorting arrangement.
That some sort some of error in four of these precinct pods. So it took nearly all day to count and release votes for 24 precincts
There are only like 700K votes in Cook county for this primary but there like 5000 precincts in that county. So its like 140 per precinct.
I can only assume a dozen or so precincts vote at each location and several locations are tied togother in some sort of counting pod. As far as I can tell all the missing precincts are in democratic areas.
Good point, MD.
Thanks Wes. If you have noticed, I have tried to be civil with Chek lately. However, she is having a love affair with Brown based on his looks and thinks he should be on that national ticket. That negates her issues with Palin in my mind.
Of course, I now have an issue with her myself but I think it is a little more substantive than Chek’s issues.
Chek’s dreaming, MD. There may yet come a day when Scott brown appears on a national ticket, but if that day comes, it definitely won’t be 2012. Honestly I doubt the GOP would want him to run for national office since if he won, they’d have a hard time holding the seat given the Bay State’s current political configuration.
#265 I dont get this “overlong” stuff either – I see several others equally as long on here…..if I dont like it I simply scroll past it….
No issue or bother for me really, I just use the scroll button on the mouse….
However, I guess I will try to be more in tune with the whole shortness vibe…..
And CrappyCare still bites!