TX: Heading To Runoff In Gov Primary Race
It hasn’t started snowing here yet, but the National Weather Service still has not changed their estimate for 10-20 inches for the Baltimore/Washington corridor. In my little office park, just about every roof has people on it shovel off snow in the hopes to avoid a roof collapse when the next round hits us later tonight and tomorrow.
Despite the predictions for more snow, Public Policy Polling still decided to release a new poll for the state of Texas gubernatorial primary, which shows incumbent Governor Rick Perry with a double-digit lead over Kay Bailey Hutchison with Debra Medina nearly catching Hutchison for second place..
GOVERNOR – TEXAS – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Rick Perry (inc) 39%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 28%
Debra Medina 24%
This poll was done February 4-7 among 400 likely voters.
UNO
Medina helps KBH since she draws con votes away from Perry. This goes out to the TX boys – is TX a runoff state?
Yes. There would have to be a runoff.
Perry will get 57% in the runoff without breaking a sweat.
Yeah I think the runoff is a nonevent. Hutch is running ads about a mandatory virus innoculation, and for awhile was railing about the Trans Texas Corridor, which is a plan to alleviate congestion on I 35 which runs through Dallas and Ft Worth down through Austin into San Antonio. My reaction is “So”? And then Perry has responded with an ad capturing Hutch saying she will never vote for the bailout and then a day later voting AYE.
I say about 60 40 in the runoff, if she does not pull out before then.
KBH still has not come up with a rationale for running against Perry. She has been all over the place but has not come up with one valid reason to turn Perry out of office.
Update from my PA source in the Philly Dem party on Sestak v Specter.
I had a couple of beers with him last night. He held a fund raiser for local Dem candidates a few miles from my house and stopped by afterwards.
His thoughts summarized:
Sestak is running his senate campaign exactly the way he ran his CD campaign – alienating everyone and relying on family members. He fails to understand that he was elected for 3 reasons in 06:
1. The CD was trending blue for a long time.
2. 06 was a blue year everywhere especially in PA and he ran on Casey’ coattails.
3. Weldon was mired in a scandal.
Sestak’s campaign is in complete disarray. He is having trouble raising money (my friend’s area of expertise and he WON’T help – they had a run in in 08). Despite all of this, it could still be a competitve primary because distrust for Specter runs high with Dem voters, especially those further left.
This could affect the coming special election for CD 12. My friend suggests that Sestak is much too liberal for the district and the lack of real enthusiasm for Specter could result in a Russell victory if he even runs which he may not for a placeholder seat.
He still bemoans the fact that Rendell is not running. The seat was ticketed for him (so he thinks anyway) but the WH screwed it up in their quest for 60. Basically Rahm strong armed Rendell who might not have run anyway since Specter gave Rendell his first job in politics.
Still, he thinks the seat could stay blue if the following happens:
1. Sestak pulls out early and defends his house seat.
2. If Arlen is down by double digits in September, he pulls out and Rendell replaces him.
He doesn’t think either will happen and we got into a protracted debate on Rendell. I maintained that the bloom is long off the rose and that Toomey would beat Rendell. He disagreed – strongly.
Medina and her supporters live in fantasy land. She will abolish all property taxes and replace it with a sales tax? Yeah, right. How high will the sales tax be? And wouldn’t people just go to OK to buy goods?
The only way to eliminate property taxes is through a national sales tax, whereby the nat gov would allocate the revenue back to the states. There are numerous reasons why that would be a horrible idea.
Texas does not register voters by party affiliation. Therefore, Democrats can and will vote in the GOP primary in an attempt to throw off the leader. However, the Dem. voter then cannot vote in their primary.
I like states that do not register voters by party affiliation. One more layer of privacy in the voting process.
I give Medina credit though – it is a populist hot button issue that can actually draw votes from the left and right. It is besides the point that it is unworkable.
Rendell is a pretty good bench for the dems. Too bad Tom Ridge, like many other top tier republicans, prefers to make money. He would easily turn the seat safe red no matter who won, though he would piss of social conservatives. If Toomey wins I’m afraid he will be a Rick Santorum and get knocked off in even in a middling year for Democrats. But I’ll take 6 years over none.
#9
That’s the only hope that KBH has: enough Dem will show up to support her to knock off Perry. Bill White will get the Dem nod.
I’ve been saying that Medina might defeat Hutchinson to get a runoff for a while now.
In a runoff she has a decent shot at defeating Perry too.
MD is right. The only way to do a sales tax is at the national level. Otherwise, people will move their purchases to neighboring states.
Texas is indeed an open primary. Won’t matter. There is no enthusiasm among Texas Democrats to cross over and vote for KBH. They couldn’t care less. Most think she’s be tougher to beat in the general election anyway even though Bill White has no real chance against Perry or KBH.
Bunu supports Medina. That’s say it all.
I’m not a huge Medina fan. She strikes me as cheesy most of the time. She’s better than the other two candidates though.
Medina, imo (not from TX) has a 0% chance of taking out Perry.
Medina ran for chairman of the Texas republicans, whatever they’re called, and she turned it into a Ron Paul speech so someone cut her mic off during the convention.
Medina will finish third and that will be the last you’ll ever hear of her.
#17
She was invited to speak at the Log Cabin Dallas club. They said that she was very nervous at first. I guess she didn’t know what a “gay” club would be like.
Drop out Senator. You are wasting a lot of time and money.
Wake me up when this thing is over.
“Medina, imo (not from TX) has a 0% chance of taking out Perry.”
Really then why is the incumbent governor not polling 50% and infact not even close to 50%?
I’m not saying that if Medina gets a runoff she will win, but she has a lot better chance than a 0% chance.
Medina has as much chance of beating Perry as I do of kicking a field goal in the SuperBowl. None.
Medina has been ignored by KBH and Perry. If she gets into the runoff, she will be attacked for the first time. She is not ready for that.
Perry is fine
Medina is good too
Either are better than Hutch
23,
I already answered that question numnuts.
The GOP should qyuietly make the following deal with Obama on Sup Ct nominees… The GOP will not filibuster any nominee who is at least 65 years old.
My prediction for round one
Perry 46
KBH 35
Medina 19
or something like that. Medina is at her peak.
#28
That would be a great deal for us but too good to be true. Obama as well as his left wing would never in a zillion years go for it.
But he can nominate ANYONE over 65. Isnt Nancy Pelosi over 65?
Phil,
When would the runoff take place?
Democrats live in a fantasy world where their authoritrarian “solutions” are wildly popular if only they can impose them on the ignorant masses so that their brillance may shine:
http://reason.com/archives/2010/02/08/back-to-the-drawing-board
“In the truer-believing regions of the progressive political world, the broad agenda of carbon price hikes, centralized health care, greater regulation, increased taxes, and government-mandated diversity in boardrooms are not just sound and moral policy. They are inherently popular, if only the usual obstacles to justice and reform can be neutralized or removed. Back when he was still considered a plausible stand-in for “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party” (enough to win 2.7 percent of the presidential vote in 2000, much of it from progressives disgruntled at New Democrat policies), Ralph Nader insisted on a daily basis that his agenda was essentially “majoritarian.”
Such fantasies can serve as a salve when you live on the margins of the policy debate. And as long as you remain on the sidelines, the underlying proposals tend to go largely unchallenged. But now that progressive economic thought has its first real foothold in Washington since the 1970s, many long-marginalized ideas are being dusted off for real-world testing, from taxing stock transactions to “getting people out of their cars.” If we’re lucky, those debates will take place before the ideas are cemented into law. Better yet, maybe the growing unpopularity of central planning will dissuade the enthusiasts from inflicting their experiments on the rest of us in the first place.”
This goes into the “no kidding, eh” category:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/02/09/krauthammer_dems_need_hearing_aids_over_rejection_of_health_care.html
Did anyone really think that Obama and the radical left would just let go of the biggest politcal power in a generation?
Heck no LOL
Hmmm Runoff date. I’m thinking the first week in May.
Thanks for insights into TX & PA.
They cant even get a jobs bill, their new number one priority out of the Senate at the moment, and Ben Nelson is now filibustering Obama nominees. A full revolt is coming as we trudge toward the elections, they rats want off the sinking ship.
Murtha’s death will have a negligible impact on the arithmetic of the House, where the Democrats have an overwhelming majority, unlike in the Senate. But another defeat in the spring would add to the sense of panic among Democrats in the run-up to the Congressional mid-term elections in November.
Panic! Hahahahaha
Don’t sell Medina short I believe she can do it. Perry is vulnerable and Hutchinson is not the answer I like the idea of eliminating property tax’s Texas is a huge state not everyone could shop in OK. I would love to see Medina win in Texas,Judge Roy Moore win in Alabama and Ray McBarry win in Georgia we get these three elected you would see mor canadates like these get elected down south.
Don’t forget Rand Paul for senate in Kentucky if you want real change vot McBarry,Medina,Moore and Rand Paul you would get real change!!!!
Ok, Jerry RW is officially not a paulbot. Good choice on Roy Moore in AL!
I agree that a special election Republican victory in Murtha’s old district will send House Democrats into full blown panic resulting in another batch heading into retirement.
Obama drifts lower in Gallup: 50(-1)/41(nc)
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Vulnerable dems are all in Clinton-territory. Obama’s visits and promises are as worthless as they were during the primary season.
For all the bs spewed by the media about his golden tongue, the only people he’s convinced is hollywood and the ivory towers.
An interesting article on the “Second American Revolution” as Ms. Palin puts it:
http://vivalarevolucion.blogtownhall.com/2010/02/08/defeating_american_socialism.thtml
“Defeating American Socialism
Posted by Viva La Revolucion! on Monday, February 08, 2010 10:36:36 AM
American socialism has long functioned under the principle that a strong central government, lavishly funded by the middle and upper classes, should influence the economy in the name of “social justice,” and provide benefits to the lower class. The power and cost of the government have steadily increased – surging under the previous two Presidents, and exploding under the current one. Its financing has shifted to deficit spending and direct control through mandates and regulation, since endless tax increases became politically painful.
I believe this system is very close to total collapse. If nothing else triggers it, the explosive bankruptcy of Social Security and Medicare will. The half-life of American socialism may now be measured in years, rather than decades. If we let it run its course and crash, its death throes will be unspeakably painful.”
Cook has 50 vulnerable Dem seats, only 10 GOP. How does this compare from the last two elections?
An interesting insight into the makeup of the Democratic Party in Texas in the PPP Poll.
Democrats:
46% White
32% Hispanic
19% Black
How would we know if Medina is at her peak as you say. She has been going up steadily every week.
So I think you would need to see a plateau or some sort of stabilization of the polls before you could tell.
When Charlie Cook is seriously behind Phil, you know that he is still drinking the DNC KoolAide!
For the longest time, Phil had it at 3.5 gain and that was only in the House!
LOL
Not that it matters, but it should read:
Rick Perry (inc) 39%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 28%
Debra Medina 24%
Cook is believing what he WANTS to believe.
He can afford to spin for the left months in advance. As we get closer to the election he will be FORCED to get real. His business is dependent on selling $200 subscriptions to his service. If he’s off in the end it’s bad for business next cycle – Money will have to trump his biases in the end.
It’s amazing that one year ago, PPP(D) showed the following:
Hutchinson 56%
Perry 31%
This is truly a great political comeback.
#11- Diogenes, Toomey is a lot smarter politician than Rick Santorum. Toomey is just as solid on the social issues, but he has sense enough not to talk about it. The people who need to know that he’s pro-life, know it. Unlike Santorum, he isn’t going to go into RINO territory in the Philly suburbs & talk about abortion. He’s going to talk about fiscal sanity, lower taxes, job creation, national security–in short, run the kind of campaign the moderates always tell us Republicans should run: based on issues that unite Republicans, not issues that divide them.
If Toomey wins, as seems likely in Nov, he’ll be around as long as he wants. He’s one of the few people since Reagan who can talk about conservative issues in an appealing, friendly, optimistic way & not a judgmental, hectoring, angry or fearful way.
http://townhall.com/News/NewsArticle2.aspx?UrlTitle=clinton-era_health_aides_push_to_save_obamas_plan&c=business&dt=02/08/2010&submitted=true&comments=true&sort=desc#comments
Well, DUH LOL
Of course the Clintoista want this passed – its their failed plan all over again!
ObamaCare was simply HilaryCare plus more overt socialism tacked on (the govt option insurance entitltement).
The govt option was never intended to stay in the final ObamaCare pacakage – it was a bargin chip to force the compliance of health insurance lobbiest, it was a sop to keep the KOS left engaged and to keep opponents misdirected from the real crappy heart of ObamaCare: the Compulsary Insurance scheme aka Individual Mandate!
Once the govt opition ruse was dropped as planned, WALA – ObamaCare was essentially the same ole HillaryCare takeover scheme almost verbatim! Dust of the old 1993/94 hillaryCare scam and you will see it equated to ObamaCare!
And yes its a govt takeover. Since govt runs insurance/medical care via rationing/regulation, compels you to buy only govt approved insurance (or be in a direct govt plan), and subsidies the bills via taxes for almost the entire population its government run HC with a “private” facade. The medical providers and insurance companies would be about as independent and “private” as GM/CitiBank and the citizens would be trapped.
Again, this whole “HC deform” fiasco was always about political power for the democrats/left first and foremost – they could give a wit about your “health” or the cost of medical care and insurance as its been factually proven from data in states like MA, ME and other countries that have these govt run compulsary schemes ala ObamaCare to be made worse!
No, this was all about getting the middle class dependent on govt subsidies for their health insurance to create a new voting bloc and to hire a million or so new SEIU govt workers in the massive govt expansion that goes with the HC takeover (the govt workers are also a monolitic voting bloc too).
Jim B. I agree. Toomey will run a Campaign that will resemble Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie. More Pragmatic. Let your Conservative base know that you are on their side, but also let the Independents realize you are not a radical.
Of course the master of this was the Great Ronald Reagan, who used this theme in to winning 44 States in 1980, and 49 in 1984
Wylie, I think the Age of the Clinton’s is finally over politcally.
Bill gave Moderate DEM Senators awful advice, who are now paying for it with their seats.
I predict Hillary will be nominated for SCOTUS
The McDonnell model is the proven winning strategy.
Specter is going to have a very long election night. Uh, I should say a very SHORT election night.
Speaking of Specter, Rasmussen has a new primary poll coming out at 5 PM.
Cook wants to believe the Dems will lose the house and possibly the senate?… because that’s what he keeps saying.
Cook has been warning Democrats to be sure. He’s said if things don’t turn around the Democrats could definitely lose the House. However, the number of current districts he has as currently competitive doesn’t support that warning. His district by district numbers have not caught up with his bottom line warnings.
I think many on this board are simply pointing out that the actual number of Democratic seats he has as lean Republican or as tossups is too low.
Phil, oh yes, it’s way too low. But if you want a ridiculously rosy picture for the Democrats, look no further than CQ. lol
Generic Ballot: Reps by 8 44-36
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
Mark, yes, I’ve been over at that sight from time to time. Last time I looked they had it as something like a 13 House seat pichup and holding.
LOL
That’s two months of consistent Rep +8 generic numbers from RAS.
It was a consistent +9 or +10 Dem lead last spring.
The last NYT poll of likely voters the weekend before the 1994 midterms was R+6 and that resulted in 54 Republican seats.
…just saying
Taxpayers eat $3.2 Billion dollars on CIT. How big will the losses run on Chrysler, GM, Fannie Mae and Freddie ?
Linus Wilson, a University of Louisiana professor who has kept a close critical watch on the bailout, just hopes the Treasury has learned its lesson on CIT, should the lender run into trouble again under its new boss, former NYSE Euronext(NYX Quote)and Merrill Lynch chief John Thain.
“Taxpayers have already been burned once propping up CIT Group. Hopefully, they will not be forced to do that by misguided Treasury officials again. One thing we learned from the first Chapter 11 filing of CIT Group was that its bankruptcy was a non-event for the markets,” Wilson wrote via email.
Phil, also check out their fantasyland Senate ratings. ND with a competitive Likely GOP rating? AR is a tossup?
For the record, MA-Sen: Rothenberg was the only one who called it with a “Leans GOP”, Cook and CQ both said “Tossup”, though Cook was at least astute enough to call it for Brown.
Rothenberg > Cook > CQ
Get this…Cantor just said the GOP will be at the meeting.
69!
The GOP needs to oppose this new Dem spending bill.
And loudly.
“However, the number of current districts he has as currently competitive doesn’t support that warning.”
He has 51 Dem seats… That’s enough to flip the house. Plus, 36 more potentially competitive races.
+8 on RAS plus the indies towards GOP.
Its like the “PAIN” button on Jim Cramer.
ouch
51 seats has the POTENTIAL to flip the House providing Republicans win 80% of them allowing for Dem pickups in Delaware and Cao’s seat. 80% is possible but not likely considering the advantage of SOME incumbents. I’d argue that realistically it would take more than 50 seats in play to get 40 seats and he’s currently light with his 51 number.
It’s academic now anyway with the election over eight months away. Makes for interesting speculation down the road however.
Bottom line – Democrats in deep doo doo.
74!
Phil
I wish I had a time machine, only about Christmas Eve or so. You were telling us that we were crazy, that you had gone district by district and it just was not in the cards!
Welcome to the dark side, however!
That was before Massachusetts however. RAS also had Republicans at about +2 or so on the generic.
The week before Christmas the generic jumped to R+8.
I definitely underestimated the tide or should I say the tidal wave.
I would say its just as likely for the GOP to take the house this Nov as it would be for the “WHO” to sing at a Super Bowl.
Okay let’s change that. How Willie singing at a Super Bowl.
The GOP for what its worth has a goal of having a GOP candidate in every congressional district.
No I am not being drafted for TN-9.
Read this and see if you dont see red:
Pitchforks and tar and heading for Washington DC?
#73 Phil, I respect your prognostication on the house. I guess the point I would make is that, being paid to prognosticate/analyze would naturally lead to slow-playing the field, while issuing warnings of what you would believe will be the case. I don’t think it is anything sinister… he has been downgrading Dem seats like crazy in steps.
I am linking Cook’s charts from June and November of 08 below.
He was very slow to put republican seats into the fire as well, but as polling comes out and primaries are finalized, I think he moves them into the right spots. The November one shows that he made very good calls, I think last year… his tossups went 50-50 for each party, and he called nearly all the other races correctly (missed Goode’s and Boyda’s losses… one for each team).
If these two charts are indicators, I think his prognostications are to be taken to mean that that he expects many more of the “potential” seats to actually be competitive, but does not have the data right now to move them (the incumbents versus generic, absent any data, create a slight advantage for the incumbent party).
http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2008-06-19_14-54-12.php
http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2008-11-04_13-32-49.php
Talk about Jobs? Harry Reid has a secret 80 billion dollar job plan. He hopes to introduce it on Wednesday and have it passed on Thursday.
No seriousily that’s what Harry Reid really wants. He and his crew are working on a secret jobs plan and they want it voted on Thursday.
Does anyone thing the democrats only want a rubber stamp
“Cook has 50 vulnerable Dem seats, only 10 GOP. How does this compare from the last two elections”
Didn’t Cook have a Cook Political report out yesterday, with 109 Dem “vulnerable” seats.
He defined 6 criteria for a Dem seat to be considered vulnerable, saying that a seat was considered vulnerable if it met at least 1 criteria.. He had a list of 109 Dem seats that met 3 or more of the criteria. Here’s his definition of vulnerable:
“To earn a place on this chart an incumbent had to possess at least one of five serious political risk factors: 1) Voted Yes on the American Clean Energy and Security Act, also known as Cap and Trade 2) Voted Yes on the Health Care Reform Bill. 3) Represents a district with a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) score of D+ 5 or less; 4) Represents a district with a PVI score of R+5 or more; 5) Received 55% of the vote or less in 2008; 6) Has a Republican opponent with $100,000 or more cash on hand. Obviously, candidates with the most risk factors are likely to be serious targets in 2010. But, even candidates with just three risk factors could find themselves in serious political risk in 2010. This is not a hard and fast list and many incumbents will come and go off the chart.
So, what is this talk of “Cook has 50 vulnerable Dem seats”. Does he maintain different lists, based on his audience?
Rdel,
Do the Dems never learn a lesson? He really thinks there can be a vote on Thursday. I thought Mormons did not imbibe in alcohol. WTF is going on?
Sam, I think he has a seperate “official” chart you see on his webpage. Then the list that was shared here on the 3 factors-6 factors criteria. He uses the second list to make proper changes on the first, I believe.
I think it’s quite a good system.
Cook has 50 “competitive” Dem seats, and over 100 “vulnerable” Dem seats.
Do not worry about Cantor and the House GOP going to Blair House with Obama. It is good politics for them to take it up, shows the
Independents that are not just the “No” party.
The Senate has the final say anyway, so why not have some Dinner with the SCOTUS, smile for the camera, and just stall
“OBAMA CRITICS HELPING AL QAEDA…” -drudge
—
HAHAHAHAH you knew it was coming.
out the loop last 24-48… anything special happen last 2 days, beside that douchebag dropping dead?
80 – “Jobs bill” = More “stimulus” handouts, just that stimulous is now a dirty word.
Dr Jay and Phil, Cook has to play it safe right now, because it is good business for him.
If he came out and said the GOP would win, there is no drama 8 months out. He wants the GOP to creep up until Nov.
Besides if their is another 9/11 all bets are off.
75 – He also mentioned he’d be updating his numbers every couple weeks.
Hawk, the GOP is in a position now to junk any more garbage like a Reid Jobs bill.
Reid is wounded and D.C smells his blood
CQ politics never has a good track record. They blew the 2002 elections
70 – HD they probably will not, but if they do they need to not use the dem name for it.
It will be so fun watching Harry Reid give his concession speech in November.
It will be so fun watching Harry Reid give his concession speech in November.
90 – “Look look those evil republicans are against ‘jobs!’!”, I’m not sure that crap will work since more people are paying attention but you know the dems will play it and the twits on tv will repeat it. They need to put an end to using “jobs bill”, call it what it is “Stimulus’s step child”.
Going to be fun watching a lot of those. Really would like to see Boxer’s too. lol
What?! How the hell did I doublepost?
Reid is disillusional-Obama is not far behind him. He was all about bi-partisanship today at the white house press room. yet no white flag from Obama. He wants to present the House & Senate HC plans at this HC summitt.
Then have the GOP present plans. No he will not ask Reid to axe the reconciliation idea. Actually the toady press did not ask that question but Obama gave encouragement to the GOP on this matter.
Rush and others are correct. This summitt is all about politics. There’s not a chance a 2300 page bill with Stupak-malpractice reform passes the house.
Obama-reid-Pelosi just wants the GOP to suggest improvements to Obamacare and then get the GOP to approve of the worst parts of Obamacare.
McConnell & Boehner are not fools. They want to look agreeable but don’t really want to go to Blair house
I hope we get to see that too, Knight. She’s a huge embarassment to Tina’s home state.
Rdel, all for the cameras. Mitch and Boehner are starting to get it. smile for the Indy’s, stall for your base
Actually I think California deserves Boxer the same way Michigan deserves Stabenow. They are quite the fools in the Senate.
Rdel, have you noticed this year a lot of seasoned politicians on the Dem side are acting in incredibly irrational ways? I haven’t see anything like it since I first began paying attention to politics in the mid-’90s.
Brooks,
I agree. Show up, be polite, then fight him on everything beginning the next day.
Somehow I failed to put an “n” at the end of “see” in my previous post. My mistake.
That makes the case for the GOP’s needing to nominate and elect better candidates in the future, Gary.
Wes, I recall in 2004, that many pundits like Novak, said Daschle cannot lose because of National Stature in a small state. He had a huge war chest.
Here is Reid, who the pundits know will lose. He is a Dead man walking trying to push a left wing agenda. This is why Nelson supported a GOP filibuster today on a labor appointee.
Big Ben can go stick it. That won’t help him. His HC vote will never be forgotten. In 2012, that seat will go red.
The DEMS cannot even dump Reid, because his Lieutenant’s are even more incompetent. Durbin and Schumer would be awful, deer in Headlights.
Actually, Brooks, Novak said Thune would be the only Republican with a chance to beat Daschle before Thune ever announced in January of 2004. I believe Novak did handicap the race as slightly leaning toward Daschle early on, but never once did he claim Daschle was unbeatable. By the time fall rolled around, I believe both Novak and Barone were the only two political prognosticators who were predicting Thune would win. Ironically though on Election Night, both CNN and MSNBC projected Thune had won a full three hours before Fox News did although several Fox News pundits before the official call implied it was all over for Daschle.
That’s fine let the gop present it’s plan but insist just like the dem’s did on 99.9% of their version, if obama don’t like it well tough sh1t —hmm how do you like it when it’s done to you barry?
They also can’t dump Reid because they have no one to take his place, brooks. Berkley and Titus would be unable to capture the seat, and there are no Dems in the legislature who can make a race of it. Bob Miller would be their only remotely realistic bet at this point, and he made it clear over a decade ago he has no desire to go anywhere near the Senate. Dems are stuck with Reid and have to hope Lowden will eb caught in bed with a live girl or a dead boy.
I like that scenario, Knight.
Yeah, Nelson has burned his bridges. I couldn’t care less what he does from this point forward.
Just looked at the internals of the RAS generic ballot. Republicans up 46-20
26 POINTS!
Exits in 06 had Democrats at 57-39 with indies.
Can you say November BLOOD BATH?
I hope it’s like 1946, 1894, and 1920 repeated, Phil. The dems deserve such a huge loss after how they’ve damaged the country.
#111 Yuck Wes, pretty graphic description even for you
I want to party like it’s 1894 come November.
It’s starting to look possible Wes.
Next target? Murtha’s seat in the special.
Let’s get it!
Wes, my wildest dream would be for the GOP to pick up 114 seats in the House so they could have the power to override Obama’s veto. Very slim chance of that happening but one can dream.
113 – every time someone says bloodbath I think of that scene from Hostel.
I’ll take 60 seats and just enjoy Obama getting NOTHING passed!
Phoenix, that was a reference to the 1991 Louisiana Governor race where Edwin Edwards famously said, “The only way I can lose this race is if I’m caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl.” Since Sue Lowden will most likely beat her opponents in the primary and face Reid in November, it was necessary to reverse the analogy.
I want ti see 1894 revisited in November too, Knight.
I think of the opening scene to Bram Stoker’s Dracula, Knight.
Is Lowden up over Tark in the primary? I haven’t been closely following that one.
Last I saw, she was ahead, Phil.
The GOP needs to get a strategy if Stevens and Ginsberg retire. Is their any way to stall until the next Senate is seated in 2011?
As long as they don’t kill each other in the primary – save the ammo for Reid.
Hawk, Hostel is the reason I will never visit Eastern Europe or the Philliphines.
I hear Eli Roth said they have those places in Bangkok.
Phoenix, even if the GOP won the necessary 113 seats to take 2/3 of the House, they’ll still be well short of 67 in the Senate. If the GOP were to win every Senate seat up this year, then they’d only be at 59. That’s not even close to the number they’d need to override a veto.
At least in 1994 George Mitchell was not running for re-election when he ran the lemmings up the hill. reid is marching Lincoln-Bennett-Bayh-feingold to the mountain top.
Pelosi is the one who shocks me. She marched the troops into Cap & Trade then HC. She has toasted dozens of folks.
Durbin and Schumer are busy counting votes.
Does anyone think Schumer wants Alex G. to win. That’s a sure vote for Durbin. I can’t really call Durbin more conservative then Schumer. I rate the Reid succession race a tossup right now.
It would depend on the nominee, Brooks. Last time something like that happened was in 1968 when Johnson appointed Abe Fortas. The GOP seized on Fortas’ corruption and drinking problem to force a filibuster. Since Fortas was Jewish, many bigoted Southern Senators joined in the filibuster, and cloture topped out at 47 votes. Opposition to him swelled, and Fortas was forced to withdraw his nomination. This kept Johnson from making an appointment, and Nixon subsequently appointed Burger to replace Warren.
I’d say the Personification of Evil Itself, Dick Durbin, probably has an edge over Schumer in the vote count right now, Rdel. The Whip in a succession race usually does. Of course if Dems lose catastrophically in November, then Schumer can campaign against the Personification of Evil Itself by pointing out the Personification of Evil Itself and Reid were the leadership who brought about such losses while he, Schumer, engineered two huge election victories in the Senate. That could very well throw the race in Schumer’s favor.
There is at least a chance that the only prize for these two dufi ( plural of dufus ) is minority leader. In that case I vote they split the job, as they only have half a brain each.
There’s an incredibly slender chance Schumer may lose in november, gary. Should that admittedly incredibly unlikely scenario come to pass, then the Personification of Evil Itself would get the position of Minority Leader by default.
Pennsylvania Senate(Rasmussen)
DEM Primary
Specter: 51%
Sestak: 36%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_democratic_primary_for_senate
HD they probably will not, but if they do they need to not use the dem name for it.
Comment by KnightHawk — February 9, 2010 @ 4:08 pm
Agreed.
Where ya been?
Reid loses his first Cloture Vote. NRO
Becker goes down for Labor Board as Nelson and Lincoln Support GOP Filibuster
I see fatgirl McCain opened up her cock-holster again.
Amazing what the knowledge of an impending political death will do to a lawmaker, right, Brooks?
That’s a rather strange analogy, Howie.
Ben looking for another cornhusker payoff? Blanche thinking Landrieu having all the fun?
Or have the red state Democrats started to blink? The game of chicken may be over.
Amazing how the Dem “moderate” reappears when their vote is not absolutely required to pass something. What a bunch of liars they all are.
It’s a little too late for that, Gary. They should have thought about acting independently of their party a year ago.
They still aren’t acting independently. There is zero doubt in my mind, that they are a yes vote if there are 60 Dems in the Senate. Its a cowardly vote.
No argument here, D. They’re pretending because they know their hides are on the line over the course of the next couple of cycles. Unfortunately for them though, they’ve already outed themselves. These lame attempts at facesaving won’t work.
I think they are not giving the American people enough credit, and dont realize that a couple of no votes is not going to improve their damaged standing. But it will really depress and enrage the nutroots. This should be fun to watch, who can hold their breathe long enough to go over to HuffPo or Kos and report back on the festivities?
Agreed, they are all toast even if they have a solid voting record. Speaking to the choir, but they have no right to continue on anyways, if they vote like a coward, they don’t deserve a position of tremendous power that requires courageous people to make the tough decisions.
Too bad they get that pension and HC benefits. I’m I was president for a day, each Senator that voted for HC would get that plan as their benefits in retirement.
D = Dead (in the political sense) in 2010 and 2012. New thread, BTW.
136 – Sorry HD, people been actually making me earn my salary the last 2 days.