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SC: No Frontrunner On Dem Side For GovScott Rasmussen’s look at the Democratic primary for Governor in South Carolina shows the race to be just as jumbled as yesterday’s poll for the GOP primary. GOVERNOR – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Rasmussen) This poll was done March 3rd among 398 likely voters.
96 Responses to “SC: No Frontrunner On Dem Side For Gov” |
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First?
Dos
A beautiful Spring day. Good morning!
Four…some!
Tina, what I do not understand is the logic of the Bishops.
They were suckered and burned by the Senate in 2009 when Reid added Abortion funding, and then were also duped by Ben Nelson.
My point is why would the Church or Bishops give cover once more to a President who is Pro Death? do they think this marxists will be true and hold their end of a deal?
Just pathetic
I am not convinced that Stupak has betrayed the pro life movement.
I believe that he and the Stupak 20 will not vote for HC unless the hosue and senate votes on a seperate bill to fix the senate language.
In my opinion that seperate bill has zero chance of passage.
I could be wrong but that’s how I see it playing out.
I repeat as well that no seperate reconciliation language is out so whatever fix is out there is a vapor fix-at the moment.
Still hopeful. Never say never but keep the pressure on.
http://www.nrsc.org/senate_races
Every day I want to draw attention to the fact that the NRSC website refuses to acknowledge that Marco Rubio exists. I will keep doing this every day until the day comes when they are forced to admit that he is the man.
I will never give a cent to the disastrous NRSC.
Rdel, this has all the same theatre of November.
What I cannot comprehend is how Stupak and the others can even think that Obama will erase Abortion Funding?
Stupak will be a fool and help pass the Senate Bill and then the Next Day Obama will sign the thing and tell Stupak and the Church to F off.
Do these people not realize that unlike November there is no Filibuster to help them if Obama renigs?
The Bishops are extremely smart people, why would they want to get duped again by Pro Abortion Marxists?
Howard, do not worry about the FL Race, we are on the verge of Marxist Care. It needs to be stopped
is there a rally in DC ??
Rdel, you could be right about Seperate Bills, but I realize I am seem like a Catholic basher today, but I gave the Church a pass in November when they covered Stupak. I just pray that will not happen again
Perhaps those sharp eyes at KOS can tell us what a Republican shill James Carville and the Democracy Corpse is. Third Way is a liberal think tank also, but I am sure they are now in the tank for Republicans:
-19 again to day for zero. -10 overall, 44/54
OMG!!!!!
My sister was on CNN!!!!
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/03/08/cnn-so-what-was-it-like-to-live-tweet-your-abortion/
You go sista !!!!!!!!!!!
The Stupak debacle illustrates the “moderate Democrat” fallacy. Stupak is just as much a big government enthusiast as the rest. He may just be a little more corrupt and more of a media hound.
James Carville is as partisan a Democrat as they come but he does not always spin the party line. I remember once on CNN during the 2002 or 2004 election when he wore a paper bag on his head the entire program. WHile others were spinning he was saying things like “this is a debacle” and we “got our asses kicked”.
14 – DW – According to Frank at rightpundits.com , the day that rolls off tomorrow was a day that caused approval among women to go up from 51.79 to 55.49, a huge outlier when the 30 day average is around 50.83%. The following day, the approval among men dropped from 39.07 to 35.98, an outlier almost as large. (30 Day approval among men is now at 40.80%).
What this means is that tomorrow the possible outlier among men will still be in the dataset, but women should go back to the 50-51% range. We could be seeing 42% approval overall for the first time, or dare I even say 41%. Yes, it will be because of an outlier, but it’s still a good feeling…
http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=4534
Thank you, Frank, for taking the time to post these numbers. I for one really enjoy looking at them every day.
THE MATH
220 (# of November rollcall yeses)
-
3 (yesses no longer in the House)
-
1 (Congressman Cao is a no this time)
=
216 yes votes +
In addition – Congressmen Gordon (retiring (Tenn) and Altmire (Pa) are no votes now all glowing about the “more conservative” nature of the Senate bill.
216 is the over the top number. We need yes votes that will flip. So far, no Democratic takers. We are reduced to hoping Stupak and his band of merry men don’t cave. Hill, Ellsworth, Pomeroy, and Spratt are the last hope unless you are counting on the Stupak bunch. Stupak wants the bill. You can’t count on this guy. He’s an absolute socialist.
No votes in November – 215
-
Massa
+
Cao
=
215
Not enough. We need Dem flips.
TYRANNY OF THE CONGRESSIONAL MAJORIY
That tells me the GOP needs to nationalize the race to replace Wesler, Phil. Beat the drum in that district of how Obamacare will hurt seniors, and we could get that all-important 216th vote.
Rdel, there two things that only matter with Stupak, everything is noise.
1. Will Stupak vote to pass the Senate Bill with a flimsy promise from Obama? Or will he demand a new bill that would have to go back thru the upper chamber.
2. Will the Church provide Stupak with cover once more without a new bill, or will they wise up and be taken once again by Pelosi and Reid.
Nothing else matters
Wexler, not Wesler…Sorry.
Jason, we have 4 special elections for the House coming up. Obamacare needs to be THE campaign issue in all 4.
Wes, why are the GOP leaders not calling for Rahm to resign.
Boehner is such a wimp.
24, Wes, could be too late
Hotair:
“If the GOP wanted to play hardball here, McConnell and Boehner could issue a statement saying that Republicans will not vote for any abortion fix later on but will instead vote “present” as a way of protesting the passage of ObamaCare. That would leave Stupak in a bind because, without Republican votes, there’s likely no way an abortion bill to his liking would pass the House or Senate. The risk is, if the GOP makes that move, then the pro-choice Democratic congressional majority could pass a law providing for abortions to be fully funded under ObamaCare, which would leave Republicans who voted “present” with some ’splaining to do to pro-life groups.”
I for one would accept the abortion funding risk to kill Obamacare. It seems to me it would be easier to kill abortion funding later that it would be to reverse Obamacare.
I would imagine most pro-lifers are conservatives who also oppose Obamacare. I understand the quandary, but since I am pro-choice (but against public funding) it doesn’t bring up the same moral issues.
We are reduced to hoping some blue dog musters the courage to step up and stop this disaster. Of course, the problem with that is that it assumes a blue dog really is what he claims to be. They are frauds.
We’re screwed.
Jason, what we need if for the Catholics Bishops to come out and say we do not support the Senate Bill and will not endorse any amendments, but we want a new Bill in Writing, no promises.
That would stop Stupak in his tracks.
Phil, we’ll see if Stupak is stupid enough to allow being swindled by Obama and Pelosi. We all know that they just want to pass a bill, have Obama sign it and move on to other things. There won’t be any reconciliation of anything. They want this out of the public eye as soon as possible. They are willing to hang and ruin the careers Stupak and the rest of the pro-life Democrats to get this passed.
You have to wonder, some Democrat might look to be the ultimate hero in all of this if it comes down to one vote. Imagine if Pelosi calls for a vote and then one Democrat turncoats with 5 seconds left and votes no and defeats the bill on the floor. Whoooooaaaaaa
We may not be screwed yet, Phil. The vote hasn’t happened yet, and if the GOP can ramp up some pressure on some of those Liar Dogs back home, then we may flip enough of them to stall it at least.
Number of Democrats who voted yea on Obamacare the first time but are now undecided has now risen to 16 according to Jay Cost. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/
Phil, you are depressing me, but unfortunateley, I think you are right. March 18th is looking like Dooms Day.
Of course if I were a House Republican leader, then I’d go absolutely machiavellian. I’d make sure no quorum showed up to conduct House business on the day Pelosi called the vote.
Sean,
My pleasure. I just updated the post for today. Women are fading and men are still low. 44.44% overall for the day.
Frank
16 is pretty big number, but does that include the Stupak dozen
Waingro, it does seem like a Repeat of December.
What worries me is that Boehner and McConnell want it to pass, so they can run against it in the Fall.
Thanks, Frank! Any chance of 42% tomorrow?
Note to GOP: nationalize this. Run ads back home highlighting the Dem votes, have candidates in the special talk about it constantly, gin up protests. In short, do what you must do to stop this debacle.
I know nothing about churches and bishops but I do know that Stupak wants this bill badly. I bet if the republicans said they would vote present, Stupak would counter that because of republican obstructionism, he will vote yes on the bill. Altimire is going to vote yes and will start talking about it being conservative. In short, the bill will pass and the momentum is on the side of the bill passing.
Also, Frank, I was sure that the 30 day average would go up today given that bad Obama days are rolling off the overage… I haven’t checked the post yet, but given that the day rolling off was 44.48%, and day rolling on is 44.44%, my math says the average won’t go down today. Let’s see if I’m right.
The Bishops are extremely smart people, why would they want to get duped again by Pro Abortion Marxists?
Comment by Brooks
How smart can they be, to embrace socialism?
I’ve not seen the momentum so clearly on the side of something the American people did not want since the Terri Schiavo debacle. We all know how that worked out.
Bishops tend to be very smart, DQ. They have a skewed worldview though. The Church often equates government paternalism with compassion. That’s wrong, but it’s the way the Church views things.
All these fence sitters will vote yes and then go on TV and say “I have reservations but people are dying, we had to do SOMETHING”.
All the DEM talking heads on the Sunday shows were schooled on the “do something” meme as if this monstrosity was the only option.
“I bet if the republicans said they would vote present, Stupak would counter that because of republican obstructionism, he will vote yes on the bill.”
And nobody will question him on how he is willing to sell his conscience and principles on abortion down the river to “counter Republican obstructionism”.
need to inundate DC in a rally against HC- scare the crap out of them
GM #13,
I love how the libs are perplexed by the findings. This poll made me think about the question of whether it is better to be loved or feared – in the case of this poll, it’s more a matter of is it better for the U.S. to be “liked” or “respected”? Obama’s “America Sucks” world tour may have made people around the world hate us less, but it clearly didn’t raise their respect for us. It probably actually significantly lowered respect worldwide for the U.S. Voters here, esepcially the independents now, see this. The most liberal, partisan Dems will never see this because they have been convinced for quite some time now that Obama is infallible and must be followed at all costs. Throwinbg little bones to Obama like the ridiculous Nobel award will keep them convinced that Obama is perfect in the eyes of the world – when reality is much different.
Sorry guys. Not trying to depress anyone. Wes is right, nationalize this election to the max.
Wes, does McConnell have the balls to stop this?
I cannot believe this is happening
Scumbag Bayh, after denouncing reconciliation for months, was on TV with a yellow grin talking about “doing something”….truly revolting.
PPP(D)
Rubio 60
Crist 28
51. I think it takes more than balls to stop it, you need votes.
Gosh, I cannot believe all of the bashing of Stupak here! Phil has even called him a “socialist” (again, a name that should be reserved for the real socialists, like Obama).
For now, I say we should support and encourage Stupak and his pro-life allies. They are at least saying they plan to vote “No” on the Senate version of Obamacare. Until that changes, I’m a Stupak supporter and I’m going to believe the best of him that he will stand up for his pro-life beliefs, as he says he will. If we just bash him in advance, he might as well give us the negative results we are predicting from him.
But if Stupak does cave in to Obama and Pelosi, THEN (and only then) we should hammer him!
The rising number of undecideds does not bode well for Pelosi, but most of those undecideds just want some cover for November that this was a hard decision for them, they are independent thinkers but decided to support the bill despite its giant flaws, blah blah blah.
In the end, this comes down to whether a few Dems are willing to commit electoral suicide, while some of their peers get cover for November and vote NO.
55. I think you are too optimistic. He has not said he will vote no for sure. He said he would vote no if they didn’t “address his concerns”. Yesterday he said he is “optimistic a deal will be reached”. Stupak IS a big government socialist, let’s not kid ourselves. If he is our only hope we are screwed.
I am with redl on this. As for the Bishops, I do not see any letter from the American Catholic Bishops pro or against a HC bill period. However, they will remain fervently against anything that promotes, pays for or otherwise contributes to abortion. They would rather shut down their hospitals then be forced to do abortions. Other than that they are entitled to any political view they want. The FW diocese Bishop decided to stay home and miss the ND commencement then go there with Obama speaking.
Comments from an ashamed ND grad.
Crist is also down 14 points in a prospective GOP primary fight to run again for governor.
Seems he will serve out his term as governor and be gone from Florida politics altogether.
How’s that hug working out for you Charlie?
#52, no surprise there jason.
57. Correct. He is playing the same game as Nelson. Hold out for some goodies for his district, then vote YES, and then say I tried
I have no confidence in stupak, but where is the Church on this Seante Bill?
If the Bishops truly wanted to stop this and pressure Pro Life Dems, they would go on the offense and say they do not Support the Senate Bill. We want a new bill with guarantees.
“In the end, this comes down to whether a few Dems are willing to commit electoral suicide, while some of their peers get cover for November and vote NO.”
I think it comes down to if there are any fence sitting Democrats who are not big government proponents who want socialized HC. I think we know the answer.
And frankly, I am pessimistic on the impact of this on November. We will have 8 months of a relentless sycophantic MSM news cycle on how Obama “accomplished his greatest goal” and I don’t know if the intensity of the opposition to this can be carried to November. That is what Obama is selling to the party, that they are better off with any kind of victory than defeat. I am not sure he is wrong. Which makes defeating this bill all the more important.
Gov Crist will probably show up in some capacity in the next GOP administration. I’d be OK with that; ambassadorship, Dept. of Education, etc.
I have no use for Stupak. Over the next week he’ll illustrate quite openly why.
Please, please, please. The Catholic Church leans left. Except for abortion and gay marriage, they embrace the leftist agenda.
#66, big time. Especially out here in my neck of the woods in Mass!
I am feeling about 90% sure that the DEMS will have the votes and this thing gets passed. Obama is already working on amnesty, which tells me he has checked HC takeover off his Marxist to-do-list.
20 — Just a continuation of Phil’s “MATH”, I see lots and lots of reasons for optimism (not pessimism) on our side. Again, from Phil’s calculations (which look right), the tally going in is 216-215, in Pelosi’s favor. But then look at Jay Cost’s latest “Scoreboard”:
Democrats Who Voted Nay in November
Very Hard to Persuade: 25
Hard to Persuade: 6
Persuadable: 6
Democrats Who Voted Yea in November
Suggested Might Now Vote Nay
(Including Confirmed Stupak Democrats): 16
Other Possible Stupak Democrats: 10
So, if even one third (9) of the pro-life Dems sticks to his/her lifetime beliefs, that would be 9 Nay-to-Yea switches that Pelosi would need. Looking above, she would need to switch all of the “Persuadable” reps plus half of the “Hard to Persuade” reps. Yes, that’s doable for Nancy, but very, very tough — especially when you consider the current political climate.
Then consider if even half (13) of the pro-lifers remain consistent with their lifetime of voting pro-life. That would mean Pelosi/Obama would need to switch all of the “Persuadables”, all of the “Hard to Persuade”s, and even pick off one of the “Very Hard to Persuade” No-voters.
Sorry, pessimists, but I remain very optimistic. We’ve been here many times before, where it looked like they were going to win — and then something always happened (ie, Massachusetts) to mess things up for them.
66. Absolutely. In Latin America the church is all about income redistribution and land redistribution (except their own), “liberation theology”, etc. In Brazil the church distributes “voting guides” urging people to vote for those “defending the poor”, which they define as the leftist politicians.
Jason you give the MSM way too much credit. They tries to prop up Corzine and Coakley in friendly deep blue states and lost.
The media House of Cards is falling down, and Independent voters will not be swayed. Arrogance in Government has always been a vote killer.
I predict right now with supreme confidence, that if Obama signs HC into law with no GOP votes, we will take back the House and The Senate and 10 Governorships
And we can dream all we want that there is a band of three or four dems who are playing Pelosi by promising Yes, and when it comes to the floor will switch to No. But that is all it is…a dream, which will turn out to be a nightmare for America.
AIN, I appreciate your optimism. Jay Cost is terrific. I think the reason we are so down today, is that we feel Stupak is playing the same game as Nelson. Sit on the fence to make it look like he is not a patsy, and then vote Yes in the end
AIN I fervently hope you are right and I am wrong. The Massa episode illustrates what these people are willing to do to win. I don’t see enough Democrats that can withstand that kind of pressure or even that want to.
The fact that Obama is doing this crap in a Census year, shows you how stupid the Kenyan is.
Massa was guilty Jason. If he were innocent he would have stayed on for a month. They must have had hard proof he was a predator
“I predict right now with supreme confidence, that if Obama signs HC into law with no GOP votes, we will take back the House and The Senate and 10 Governorships”
Like with AIN’s comments I hope you are right. But we live in a world of short sound bites and fast news cycles. I don’t see the anger being sustained for 8 months, unless its replaced by another topic like immigration. Of course I think Rs will do well in November, I am just not convinced HC will be the hot button then whether it passes or not.
“Massa was guilty Jason. If he were innocent he would have stayed on for a month. They must have had hard proof he was a predator”
Believe me, lots of people are guilty and don’t get chased around the showers by a naked screaming Rahm.
73 — Brooks, we can “feel” like Stupak is playing us, but he has a lifetime of voting pro-life to factor in. He can also look at what has happened to Nelson since he compromised. He’s not only a complete lame duck, electoral-wise, but he’s a poster child for selling out the unborn — something that Stupak and his collegues don’t want to be.
74 — those Dems are getting “pressure” from both sides. Certainly the pressure from Pelosi, Rahm, and Obama is intense, but so is the pressure from their constituents, and the pressure from their internal voice telling them a “Yea” vote would be career-ending.
AIN, on HC the dems have never lost anything until Scott Brown which temporarily stunned them. They will pass the bill; it will energize their base to some extent and will depress the right to a great extent. Electorally this will be good for them as I am coming around to believe. November will tell them if they did the right thing. Of course they will lose seats, but if they retain a workable majority, they come out ahead.
The only way the republicans keep HC alive is to run on repealing it. Then it would be fight in November, otherwise it fades to a great extent.
“shows you how stupid the Kenyan is.”
I think Obama squandered a lot of capital and goodwill, but it will pay off if he socializes a sixth of the economy. That is what socialists live for. If it doesn’t pass, he will have lost his huge gamble.
The guy is a glorified community rabble rouser with an undistinguished record and really questionable relationships that became President. I don’t think he is stupid.
Was Hitler stupid for invading Russia? Maybe, but before that he was a one-balled crackpot nobody who almost conquered the world.
Sean,
I have updated the weekly numbers as well as the generic ballot. Your arithmetic was spot-on. No change in the 30-day trend. I must admit that I was surprised by this. I didn’t research to see the day that would be falling off.
Tomorrow may be an interesting day, assuming men stay low and women return to normal.
Frank
80 and 81. I agree with that assessment, unfortunately.
Read their voting guide, there is nothing liberal about it. They leave economic issues to our judgment and conscience, and on social issues they are very conservative. There is no leave it to judgment or conscience on abortion.
Pitchaboy, I’d argue with you, but obviously we both hope you’re wrong. It comes down to optimism (which I have) or pessimism. From listening a little bit to Glenn Beck’s program this weekend, I can see where some of the pessimism is coming from. Gosh, that dude is Mr. Pessimistic! He had one woman calling in, sobbing because she said, “We are losing our country”. After laughing at her, I had to turn Beck off.
We currently have a tidal wave building in our favor, which is one reason I am so optimisitic. Beck is fighting against that wave, saying the Republican Party needs to self-flagellate itself first before going out and crushing the enemy. The only other thing that can prevent a massive tidal wave victory in November is if the Paulbots can persuade enough of the Tea Party folks to join them and we get a bunch of unacceptable Paulbot-tinged candidates — in Kentucky, Indiana, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pitch, the thing you forgot, was the tax raises. These start immediately when the Bill is signed. Taxes are a huge loser in 9.7 Economy
I feel if HC passes the House, Boehner should be dumped. I know he does not have the numbers, but since Brown won he has not capitalized.
1. Boehner should be dumped anyway; Ryan and couple of other young guys are far better and infinitely more articulate.
2. I have no doubt that the dems will lose plenty seats in November. But, I do believe a defeat in HC will so depress the left that a big loss could become a catastrophic shift in power
3. The stock market is already factoring in HC being passed and is optimistic about November
I do not watch nor listen to Beck. I flat out think he is a crazy guy. My sense of political humor is more in tune with Rush.
Pitch,
Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t saying that you watch/listen to Beck. Just suggesting that he is driving some of the overall pessimism on our side. We need to ignore Beck and Savage.
Frank, it looks like in a week or two, we’ll have higher (48-49) overall approval numbers falling off… The fact that the 30 day average is dropping when fairly low numbers are rolling off makes me think we can break the 46% barrier, and maybe even get into the mid-45’s…
With that being said, I would much rather see this healthcare bill defeated than see low Obama numbers… My guess is that if the Democrats ram this bill through, we could see low 40’s daily approvals instead of mid-40’s…
I don’t have a favorable opinion of Beck anymore. He doesn’t seem to understand that the way back is via a revitalized conservative Repbublican Party. If I hear him say one more time that there is no difference between the Democrats and the Republicans, I will puke!
If massa is “guilty” wht isn’t bwany fwank being dumped???
92 — Marv, Beck wants the Republican Party to obtain it’s “redemption” by following his (Glenn Beck’s) prescribed formula for redemption. This includes a Catholic-like confession of the Party’s past sins and a purge of any Republican sinners that Beck sees as unforgiveable.
My brother is a big fan of Beck, so I get this from him.
What Beck fails to see is that the “sinful” Republican Party that blew it in the last decade no longer exists. “That” Republican Party was led by Bush, Cheney, Rove, Frist, Lott, Hastert, Armey, and DeLay. All of those guys are gone — out of power.
93– Barney Fwank is too powerful. Massa was a freshman.
The pessimists here could be underestimating the fear factor among DEMs. Interesting that a bunch of House committee chairman (!) are claiming to be “undecided,” & 2 of them are “no.”
I wish I knew something about the mail & phone call volume.
I wonder why Zero chose St. Charles County (MO) for his visit tomorrow. It’s the GOP’s banner county in the St. Louis metro region, & as far as I know, none of the MO House DEMs are on the bubble. Is it because it’s more-or-less in the center of the country? Weird, or too crafty for me to figure out.
rdel,
No need for an Almanac post on demograhics of SCC, pls. I worked at BC’04 HQ there, & again in ‘06. SCC is to MO GOP what Richmond was to the Confederacy.