FL: Rubio Leads Crist By 32%
Things just continue to get more embarrassing for Charlie Crist in Florida as a new poll now shows Marco Rubio more than doubling the sitting Governor and reaching 60% in the Republican primary for the US Senate race according to Public Policy Polling.
US SENATE – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Marco Rubio 60%
Charlie Crist 28%
Even worse for Crist, if he wanted to try and retain his job as Governor, he would have trouble getting the nomination again.
GOVERNOR – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Bill McCollum 49%
Charlie Crist (inc) 35%
This poll was done March 5-8 among 492 likely voters. On a more humorous note, the National Republican Senatorial Committee still can’t find it in them to even acknowledge Marco Rubio is in the race for the US Senate. They still highlight Democrat Kendrick Meek as a candidate, but will not under any circumstances include any information on the man who at this point, is the odds on favorite to get the Republican nomination. Does this make any sense whatsoever? I just wonder what will happen when Rubio gets the nomination, will the NRSC actually admit he is the nominee or still continue with leave his name off the list and only show Kendrick Meek running for the US Senate in Florida.
Let me repeat again, the organization responsible for helping to elect REPUBLICANS to the US Senate refuses to acknowledge the man who is now 32% in their own primary even exists, but has no problem showing the Democratic candidate for the US Senate ont heir website. MMMkay….
orange toast
Shouldn’t have supported the stimulus, Charlie.
To be fair, Crist was the best candidate had Barack Obama started off as Bill Clinton from the start and tried to maintain his popularity. He’s also still dangerous if he runs as an independent spoiling the overall race.
At this point Crist needs to wise up and announce he wants to spend more time with his family. He should be salvageable by 2012 if he just goes hard right until the end of his governor’s term.
3. how much you want to bet dems are working on crist right now to have him switch over
Polling has Rubio beating Meek even with Crist in the race, Dio.
Shouldn’t have hugged Obama.
http://www.nrsc.org/senate_races
Again, the GOP doesn’t yet know that Rubio exists. They better wake up, and soon.
oops, just realized Dave brought attention to the NRSC website. I have never seen anything like this. Other races they show all top-tier candidates. Not in Florida.
5. problem is, if dems can get crist to switch to dem, meeks will be thrown under the bus … how much you want to bet that is the obama plan ?
Cornyn’s asleep at the switch on that, DW. They’ll acknowledge Rubio when he becomes the nominee though. Let’s not forget this is nothing new for the NRSC to do. In 2004, the NRSC ignored Tom Coburn in his Senate primary against Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphrey. Throughout the primary, Allen never once acknowledged Coburn. Once Coburn handily dispatched Humphrey though, the NRSC rallied strongly behind the winner and poured money into the race helping him beat Brad Carson by a wide 53-42 margin.
Chamber of commerce getting political
http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2010/03/09/us-chamber-of-commerce-getting-into-the-game/
For the grass-rots guys out there, this is one instance where the establishment is clearly out of touch. Cornyn needs to at least establish neutrality in the primary.
10…I know…its crazy. In Kentucky they show all the candidates including Rand Paul. The website isn’t layed out the best either. The candidates are scattered all over the page along with the sitting senators who are not up for re-election.
That’s how the site’s always been set up, DW.
Just goes to show that any Republican who gets chummy with Obama is committing political suicide. Period.
Hello folks,
I still say that the prospects for the House passage of the Senate Obamacare bill are dim.
Marv, hope you are right. I am still pretty sure it will pass. The tip-off is Obama already moving on to amnesty. He knows Obamacare is done and passed.
DW,
Perhaps Obama senses that Obamacare will fail and he wants to change the subject.
18…that is what Bill Clinton would do…Obama is far too stubborn and will not give up. He would only move on to amnesty if he has been assured that HC is in the bag (not a reference to Pelosi).
I tell you waht, if Graham were to break a filibuster on Amnesty, the GOP better boot his ass or isk the base staying home in 2010
(posted on previous thread)
Interesting that a bunch of DEM House chairmen are claiming to be “undecided,” & 2 of them are “no.”
It’s peculiar that Zero chose St. Chales County (MO) for his visit tomorrow. SCC is the banner GOP county in the St. Louis metro area, & no DEM House members are on the bubble, as far as I know.
Maybe the idea is, “See? I can draw a big enthusiastic (invitation-only, bussed-in) pro-HC crowd, even in this white suburban GOP county! They love Obamacare even here!”
What possible motivation does the nrsc have to do this? You sure this isn’t just a case of not updating the website regularly???
wes
Thtat is why I am less then excited about candidate recruitment. Mayor Humphreys in OK was the recruited guy and in SC in 2004 it was frmer Governor guy. I forget the name of the former GOP Gov with the nice hair in SC but he was the guy.
As it happened DeMint & Coburn not only proved to strong candidates but great US senators.
I would rather hae someone really driven and a great candidate then have someone dragged into it.
That being said Tommy Thompson would be a huge catch in WI. Tommy T. is just a natural Pol. He connects with people on a one on one basis.
Its Halloween again on the drudgereport
My healthcare whip count shows that NO is stuck on 214…. 2 votes short of winning, and that is before the upcoming special elections move the required number for victory to 218.
NO had 215 in November, and has had a net loss of 1 vote since then. Cao went from YES to NO. But Gordon switched from NO to YES and Massa quit.
Cao will probably switch back to YES once Stupak makes his abortion deal.
I kind of feel sorry for Mr. Crist for letting himself be Graysoned.
25…how does Murtha’s death factor into your numbers?
His death, as well as some of the retirements and resignations, has reduced the number of Reps to 431. As such, 216 is needed to win.
That is how it affects the numbers.
My way is simpler and more accurately reflects the state of things. As of now, NO is short 2 votes.
Bayern, were you not the one who told us Bayh would never vote for Healthcare?
The Special elections do not matter right now. This needs to be stalled until after Easter.
Do you have Ellsworth, Hill, and Donnelly on board as Yes?
Bayern, did you factor in Deal staying on?
Bayern, not to sound crass, but Jay Cost is the expert on the vote Count, not yourself.
A side note on HC “yes” votes:
On Sunday John Batchelor said he heard Pelosi had not more than 200 votes. Crystal has said the same thing. And, today I read that Emanual Cleaver, a dem congressional whip, has thrown out 201 as the number of yes votes.
Bayern, sorry I am taking my bad mood out on you. Not Fair. I just hate these Socialists.
Orrin Hatch at NRO
” Pelosi does not have the votes. If she even had 200 she would be on the Floor right now.”
He says he will shut down the Senate and Joe Biden. Hatch has been around since 1976, and has been Judiciary Chair. I believe he knows his stuff
None of the above, and none of the people Jay Cost lists,
have announced their votes.
My whip count is where NO stands today.
NO needs 216 to win.
It has 214.
Any YESSES who announce that they are switching to NO will be added to NO’s count.
So far no one has done so.
Hatch just said it to Jan. He says that if she had 200 votes she would be on the floor already getting ready for battle, like November.
I think we are very pessimistic here because not only do we have the MSM playing games, but we all thought it would die in 2009.
As I said before were are the Bishops?
To be clear, YES may be below 214… maybe a lot…
But I would rather just count up the NO votes to get a sense of where things stand. NO needs 2 more votes to win.
So close… and yet so far.
I see now Bayern. Your count is based on your own gut feelings. That is cool
I know exactly where BayerF is coming from. He is close to what Cost has if you assume the Stupak deal is made. I for one seen lots of problems with fixing Stupak
Boxer-Gillibrand and the other abortion fire brands are up in arms about Stupak. They will not allow the senate to pass a Stupak approved companion bill. So will Stupak allow HC to proceed with a signed and passed Stupak bill? I personally doubt it. I have been surprised before but with the political furor over HC I do not believe that Stupak will be content with a piece of paper. Is he a Chamberlain who waves a signed piece of paper from Boxer or will he insist on a signed and passed bill?
I remain strangely confident about stopping HC. Not sure why its more then a hunch or a feeling. Here’s my top ten reasons
1. Stupak is really hard to resolve
2. Hoyer slapped down Gibbs today-the 18th will not happen for a house vote
3. Where’s the recon bill? what’s in it?
4. Where’s teh CBO score on this bill? You can’t pass the senate bill in the house without a recon bill. So no having one delays it.
5. Where’s all the folks rushing to embrace Obama and HC?
6.Reid-7.Durbin8.Schumer9. Pelosi10.Hoyer
My last five happy thoughts involves who is pushing HC. They ain’t got it done yet when Mitchell-Foley would have done in months or by the August 2009 recess.
It is based on publically announced NO votes. That is all. Not gut feelings at all.
Worry about Cao. That is a gut feeling. If he switches back, NO is down to 213, three votes short.
Have I missed any NO votes? As far as I can tell, the only person to switch from YES to NO is Cao, a Republican.
Have any Dems who voted YES said that they are NO votes regardless of any abortion deals and reconciliation?
Rdel, good points. But I guess with Stupak that is what this whole thing comes down to. Will he vote Yes on a promise?
I think the GOP would spend their time better going after non Stupak votes. the Chamber of Commerce is running ads this moment against HC.
Stupak should be a definite NO after getting burned the first time along with the Church.
And Brooks…
your point on Bayh is VERY WELL TAKEN.
This is why I am now a pessimist.
These people are evil. I am not counting ANY of them a YES until they swear to it.
Even then……
Bayern Accuri was a Yes to NO lat week, but is now undecided.
Ellsworth has to be a NO, why run for Senate otherwise?
I meant I am not counting any of them a NO unless they publically swear to it.
42. right on brother. The worst was Nelson by far. Once the Pharmas approved Marxistcare, I knew Bayh was a Yes, with his whore wife a Pharma exec.
I will believe it on Ellsworth and any other Democrat if and when they publically announce their intention to vote NO. Your point on Bayh is spot on.
Don’t make the same mistake regarding Ellsworth that I made on Bayh.
vbg
All Dems are scum.
And they ALL WANT TO VOTE YES.
Remember that.
I still think Massa would have been a Yes in the End. It sounds like he really is a Gay Predator and if he were not he would have stayed.
Massa wanted the Public Option
There are no chickens in my NO whip count that have not hatched.
An optomist would say that being only 2 votes short is really pretty good considering where we have gone the past year.
The pessimist says NO is still 2 votes short, may lose another in Cao, and the Dems are all scumbag Marxist/Fascists who are all itching to vote YES.
They all want to vote Yes, but thankfully they all want to stay in the House.
Cao still remembers his fun day with Obama at the Super Bowl, and if he votes YES he probaly switches parties. Last time he voted after the bill already passed.
Yeah.. Massa is not in my NO whip count.
I am also assuming that Cao has actually said that he will vote NO.
Are any of you tired of doing this all day long, day after day?
Cao has seen his last elective office.
Seems to be the only game in town.
No one in the house trusts the senate. Right now the house is being sold a recon fix. We know that will not happen. All that talk of reconciliation and not a single word yet as to what will be reconciled.
Here’s the list of concerned democratic congressmen-they voted Yes in Nov and here is the mcCain % from 2008
Mollohan 57%
Rahall 56%
Carney 54%
Kirkpatrick 54%
Spratt 53%
Pomeroy 53%
Space 52%
Giffords 52%
Mitchell 52%
Perriello 51%
Ellsworth 51%
Wilson 50%
Hill 50%
Salazar 50%
Dahlkemper 49%
That was McCain 2008 and however % to the GOP has the shift been? These folks either want Stupak to succeed or they want HC to go away. There are another two dozen congressmen who voted Yes but in the +2 to +4 obama districts. They ain’t +4 Obama districts now. I might DC congressmen are mighty unpopular right now.
Look at Toyota. They Employ 100k’s of American workers at US plants with Good Salaries and benefits. But they are not Union or UAW workers.
Obama and Detroit are pushing their friends in the MSM to trash them on safety issues, while ignoring the fact that Detroit makes S$%T cars.
Toyota sells enough autos around the world to bypass the U.S, and if they did imagine the Unemployment rates in the South.
KnightHawk,
I am tired of the Obamacare debate, I am looking forward to the next Obama outrage, whatever it is.
Knighthawk
I have googled “healthcare” 10,000 times since last September
Rdel, nice list. Those AZ rats are in big trouble. That state is about to blow up over Obama
I am tired of the Obamacare debate, I am looking forward to the next Obama outrage, whatever it is.
Comment by Marv
Try this on for size
60 – You read my mind.
The water situation in northern Cali valley gets my goat too, as well as 100 other things I suppose we could discuss. It’s just there’s no news today on HC really beyond hoyer saying mar 18th likely ain’t gonna happen. Another failed obama deadline.
I have mentioned numerous times this “recon bill”. The AP has this note on part time employees:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g0ZR7xK3OfnUMkC7pOMMHB6Kl38gD9EANDBO0
The Recon bill at best has to be revenue neutral so when they get rid of the caddie tax, for union folks, they have to get more money. One idea is to tax & penalize employers for part time employees. So little Ginny, working at the taco bell, will be cost her $1000 fine for not providing her with medical insurance.
In reconciliation every action has an equal and oppisite reaction. If you give every state the “cornhusker hustle” that costs 13 billion dollars a year. One way to pay for that is outset it by a $1000 fine on 13 million un-insured part time employees.
Thankfully all of America’s small businesses are doing so well this fine would not hurt their bottom line.
Remember folks Obama, Pelosi and Reid are writting this bill.
58 – That’s it? Only 10,000?
It’s just there’s no news today on HC really beyond hoyer saying mar 18th likely ain’t gonna happen. Another failed obama deadline.
Comment by KnightHawk — March 9, 2010 @ 2:07 pm
that seems like huge news isnt it?
Remember folks Obama, Pelosi and Reid are writting this bill.
—
Meaning your assured things will cost more, you will be taxed more, and you will have less choice and receive less for what you do receive.
I thought the left was pro choice?
The senate will budget recon a new bill(same old crap) prohibiting abortion,then send it to the house where it will be approved.
67 – I wish them luck with that. Well not really, lol.
#65 GPO,
I’m with you, I think that the Hoyer smackdown of the March 18th date is a significant event. Perhaps Senator Hatch is correct and Pelosi can’t even get beyond 200 votes. If the Dems had the votes, the Senate Bill would be on the House floor immediately.
In a free market health care world, where people shop for procedures and pay for them out of pocket, how much do you think a colonoscopy would be worth?
About an hour in the office, some anesthesia, an endoscope, a monitor, a nice printer, and they physician’s dextrous skill, expertise, and time in talking to you about it afterward.
How much would you pay for that as a 50 year old getting screened for colorectal cancer?
#65, that’s definitely good news.If they do not get CrappyCare passed by March 18, then those Blue Dogs on the fence will be forced into Town Hall meetings with angry potential voters.push this off!
It’s that rich
69 – Well I’m about to find out later this year what it costs in today’s market for someone far younger then that. I’m sure it’ll be several thousands.
Call now! colonoscopy sale 995$ would seem more reasonable, probably get more sales too.
DailyMail.uk
“Nelson Mandela has been accused by his former wife of betraying South Africa’s black population.
In a savage attack, Winnie Mandela said he had done nothing for the poor and should not have accepted the Nobel peace prize with the man who jailed him, FW de Klerk.
The 73-year-old said her ex-husband had become a ‘corporate foundation’ who was ‘wheeled out’ only to raise money for the ANC party he once led. ”
—
Sounds like much like some of the race pimps here in the states.
Gallup generic ballot (RVs)
Dem 47
Rep 44
Very enthusiastic about voting?
definite/lean rep: 42
definite/lean dem: 24
Comment on eventual switch to likely voters:
“Republican gains have ranged from no change to 11 points on the Republican share of the vote, and as much as an 11-point gain in the gap. In only one election have Democrats gained after applying the likely voter model.”
http://www.gallup.com/poll/126503/Dems-Hold-Slight-Advantage-2010-Election-Preferences.aspx
Nice little trade war with Brazil could be developing, how nice, sure that will be great for jobs.
Marv I agree with you, but I recall that these timing games happened in November also, where Hoyer there would be no vote until December Yada Yada and then Boom, Stupak Caved along with the Bishops and they passed it on a Saturday Night.
Hoyer means squat, I trust Hatch. He is right, if they were withing 20 votes they would be on the Floor arm twisting.
I think we can look at BayernFan’s number (214) as an absolute minimum for the “No” votes. Based on his criteria, the “Yes” votes would be way below that — probably below 200, as Senator Hatch suggests. Again, this is reason for optimism. It means that if there are perhaps 20 senators who are “Undecided”, we only need 2 (10%) of them to vote our way.
Don’t dis Cao. He is in a deeply blue district. Everyone on this boards whines about fake blue dogs who vote with the leadership most of the time. Well Cao has only voted liberally when his voted didn’t count and has voted with the leadership where it counts for the GOP side.
If we want a majority back we have to let congressman from blue-states vote against us once in a while.
One idea is to tax & penalize employers for part time employees.
rdel
That idea was floated today.
Today, however, I feel more confident that HC will continue to meet obstacles that it will not be able to overcome.
One article called Pelosi’s job as being like a Forest Ranger, in having to constantly put out lots of little forest fires. It seems if you satisfy one constituency, you automatically step on the toes of another. HC is turning out to be an endless game of musical chairs, where you are always missing at least one chair to sit in.
Also, historically, bills involving massive social change have had a consensus of public approval behind them. This HC bill has had a long-standing negative response from the public. It has literally become an issue filled with nothing but land mines for Congress people who are sretching their necks out, while looking at reelection possibilities just around the corner.
BTW — is this site especially “slow” today?
The latest intelligence I have is they are a dozen or so votes short and mostly holdouts waiting to see what kind of compromise the senate will hatch out for abortion, taxes etc. There is no doubt, if Pelosi has the votes she will call for a vote pronto. There are so many things to be done it is unclear if they will make the deadline. If they dont it is smiles on HHR until the next last HC push starts.
82.. next we’ll hear start hearing “before Easter!”.