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IL: Brady Leads Quinn By Double DigitsTo start off your afternoon, we have a new poll from Scott Rasmussen giving us our first look at the gubernatorial race in Illinois since Bill Brady was officially declared the Republican nominee. GOVERNOR – ILLINOIS (Rasmussen) This poll was done March 8th among 500 likely voters.
202 Responses to “IL: Brady Leads Quinn By Double Digits” |
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1
This is a shocker. Quinn was Blago’s Lt governor 6 years.
As long as Brady uses the Bob McDonnell platform of being pragmatic, he should beat the Tax Raising Buffoon Quinn.
Queue up the KOS bleaters. They will ignor this at their peril. 37% in Indigo Blue Illinois. Obama’s home state.
Gallup generic ballot (RVs)
Dem 47
Rep 44
Very enthusiastic about voting?
definite/lean rep: 42
definite/lean dem: 24
Comment on eventual switch to likely voters:
“Republican gains have ranged from no change to 11 points on the Republican share of the vote, and as much as an 11-point gain in the gap. In only one election have Democrats gained after applying the likely voter model.”
http://www.gallup.com/poll/126503/Dems-Hold-Slight-Advantage-2010-Election-Preferences.aspx
This is a pleasant surprise, I was convinced Dillard was a better candidate for the GE.
“Cao will probably switch back to YES once Stupak makes his abortion deal.”
I saw this on the other thread. I have seen nothing to back this up. As far as I know Cao said he is voting NO and did not make it contingent on Stupak.
6…
that is good to hear
Advice for Bill Brady.
1. Stay away from Social Issues
2. JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS
BLAGO BLAGO BLAGO BLAGO
JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS
Kos assured us that Quinn was up by 15 points about 10 days ago.
Nancy Pelosi, you can’t make this up…..
“But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it, away from the fog of the controversy.”
I agree Jason. If Brady says on message about jobs, taxes, and spending, he’s headed to victory. The clip of his recent appearnace on Channel 7 (ABC) shows he gets that. Now, we’ll see how disciplined he is in staying on message.
Cao will only vote against the GOP if his vote doesn’t count. If Pelosi somehow pulls an extra few votes out of the bag, Cao will likely vote yes. Remember he’s basically the only GOP seat on most top 10 lists for seats most likely to change this November.
Right George, Brady did a Chicago media blitz, he was NBC5 also. His advisors have steered him the right way.
Quinn will do the Chicago liberal muckracking calling Brady a extremist, but the with the economy so bad it will fall on Deaf Ears.
Brady just needs to stay on the economy and be pragmatic. He is Young, Handsome and not a Chicago DEM
Jason T
why have you not applied for lt. Gov job? I understand that Quinn has published a want ad asking for applicants. This has been a horrid week or two for democrats in IL. No wants to be on the ticket as Lt Gov with Quinn. Alex G’s bank is teetering. Reports have detailed how G’s family has looted the bank and has all these questionable loans to mobsters & middle eastern groups.
Did I mention the 10 billion dollar budget gap at the state level. I understand Chicago and Cook county is needing to raise taxes to keep services up.
This is more about Quinn & the democrats then Brady.
I agree 100% that Brady just needs to keep quiet on social issues and pummel the democrats on ethics -taxes-budget-banking woes.
Diogenes, spot on. Cao will never be the deciding vote
H/T Campaign Spot
Pelosi’s Job Gets Harder
One more “yes” to “no” looks pretty clear: Rep. Jerry McNerney, Democrat of California: “Audience members decried the health insurance industry’s plans to raise premiums next year and the prohibitive cost of healthcare for those who are uninsured. McNerney criticized the current version of healthcare reform passed by the U.S. Senate for the deals it makes with certain states, its lack of a public option and the inadequate number of people it extends coverage to. He said he would not vote in favor of that version of the bill if it comes back to the House.”
Alexi is on the hook for letting Tony Resko bounce 500k in checks also Rdel.
Cook county has the highest Sales Tax in the US at 10%, Chicago is 10.25%
Taxes scared away Honda and Toyota from building new plants in Southern IL
It is awful here, and Chicago sleaze has bankrupted the state
McNerney is a nut who only won in 2006 because Richard Pombo was scandalized.
GPO I would not count on this Nut if he favors the Public Option
BayernFan, is the info in #16 in your NO count?
RAS Independents:
Brady 59%
Quinn 18%
I believe the margin among indies is presently 41%.
The pattern continues.
Just like Massa, McNerney wants the Public Option. They are the same as Bernie Sanders, and cannot be trusted as NO votes
Greetings, all. Excellent news on IL; I am pleasantly surprised, and do hope that Brady follows the McDonnell vice Al Salvi model.
On the lack of shower curtains in the Congressional locker room, I was wondering if Barney Frank was responsible for having those removed. Wes, any thoughts?
Speaking of Kos, they have removed non-voters from the tracking poll. Normally that would be helpful, but, it’s Kos.
Looking at the voter likelihood numbers… previously, about 3% were not sure whether they would vote in the 2010 congressional. This week it is over 30%…
So previously, they could only find about 60 in a sample of about 1900.
But currently, they found about 360 in a sample of about 1200.
hmmm…
After whatever this entailed, those who will definitely/likely vote became:
Rep 49
Ind 45
Dem 39
(76-63-55 last week)
19..
No it is not. When a Congressman says “I will vote no IF etc etc “….
it is not a sure NO vote.
I only count hatched chickens.
If he had said “I will vote against the Senate Bill”, then I will count it as a NO.
I have it on good word that Barney Frank had them removed after he heard Scott Brown was elected.
Massa co-sponsored.
(I’m kidding)
Looking at that again…
what other verson does that CA Dem think is going to come to back to teh House? other than the Senate bill?
I just dont trust these Dem pukes. Not a one.
Top Tier DEM, Monroe County DA Mike Green, will not run for Massa’s seat. NRO
The only chance they had. Look for Cook to make this a Likely R Seat
The only person with an accurate whip count is Pelosi.
I have no doubt that there are more solid NO votes than YES votes.
As long as this thing does not get to the House floor, YES is short.
George we have a Al salvi type in the IL 8 with Joe Walsh.
But Brady has wised up and is a impressive guy who looks the part, unlike Old Queen Fat Quinn.
Jason, good find. This is excellent news.
PHIL
I forgot to mention the 59-18 split among indies.
Richard McNerney has drawn a lot of oppisition this time around. I might add that his district is one of the prime targets on the Obama war on water in CA. Its an AG district and its hurting.
If you google Costa & Cardoza on Healthcare you will find that they are not on board for the senate bill. They are not a definite no but they are not voting yes.
Could it be that Costa-Cardoza-McNerney–the three democrats who represent the Central valley–are voting no over water? Would Obama ditch the greens over 3 healthcare votes? Or is the Valley so brown now for lack of water and the 16% unemployment rates there have killed Obama’s popularity?
Spot on Bayern.
McNerney is a far left liberal in a GOP district who won because of scandal. He is trying to fool his district that he is on the fence, but he will be a YES.
RDEL, the problem there is they all are from Cal. Pelosi will pistol whip these Lap dogs in to YES.
Zogby
Obama approval: 48-51 (LVs)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1828
Phil, it looks like Kuhl again. Even the dEMS say he is a easy winner
I think Intrade is a poll driven farce, and they had Coakley at 98%.
But they have Deathcare down to 58% after being at close to 70% this morning
In Trade is closely following my poor man’s whip count. They see that NO is two votes from victory.
26 – Exactly that’s what he was talking about without saying it.
34 – Is zog going to be doing those weekly, monthly etc (ie try and make a come back) or was this just a random one off?
Jason, Cook will definitely change NY-29 to Likely R…in late October.
I’m not so sure Pelosi has a stranglehold on McNerney, Cardoza and Costa…well, maybe McNerney since he is practically next door and relied on busloads of volunteers form San Fran to push him over the top in 2006. Cardoza and Costa represent fundamentally more conservative in nature; CA-11 is largely agrarian, but has several east bay suburbs in it to give the Dems a fighting chance in a decent environment (hence 53% and 55% in 2006 and 2008 for McNerney). I think we could take CA-11 this year, although it would have been nice to have a top-tier challenger; we’ll have to settle for the lot we have to choose from instead. Haven’t paid attention to Cardoza and Costa’s districts to see if the local GOP has gotten their act together. If they have not, shame on them. I can see a + 4 gain for the GOP in CA alone this year if they played their cards right (counting Loretta Sanchez’s seat in CA-47). Sadly, I think that the national GOP wave will subside by the time it hits CA, much like 1994 when our gains were limited.
#39 Zogby offers an approval poll about every one to two weeks.
KH…
over $6500 is what my insurance company is being billed.
I wouldnt pay more than $2000 out of pocket for an elective procedure like that.
We need to get people weaned off of low deductible health insurance.
Scott Brown’s approval 1s 70-26 in Mass according to Rasmussen.
Mass disapproves of Obamacare 46-53
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_scott_brown_march_8_2010
George, in 1994. Radonovich took out a Dem Liberal Rep, Seastrand won the late Capps Seat. Bilbray beat a DEM woman also. Sonny Bono won, Frank Riggs took out a incumbent. That is +$ there alone.
Wes would know, but Wilson was re-elected and the GOP won the state House in Cal.
Could be wrong
Dr. Jay, Death care is at 46% in soviet Boston, and this fool keeps pushing the crap
WAPO
Massa groped three male staffers. Massa is a liar and a gay predator. He would have been a Yes Vote in the End anyways.
Glenn Beck got played
42 – “We need to get people weaned off of low deductible health insurance” – Indeed. Believe me I don’t ‘want’ to get it done, but with both my dad and his brother dying from it (caught late), probably not something I should put off much longer then mid 30’s.
Wait you mean you want people to treat health insurance as actual err insurance? You radical you!
george
Obama & Pelosi are very unpopular in Central valley right now. Water policies are killing the democrats as farms drying up to save Salmon Runs plus some crazy salamander.
BTW 6500 is what they are being billed, I’ll bet your ins. company settles that for like 4500.
Amazon dumps all affiliates and Sellers in Colorado.
Colorado Left Wing Legislature imposes a Sales Tax on all amazon Online Sales, Amazon tells Colorado to F-Off.
46 – Interview hasn’t even happened and already you’ve drawn conclusions.
Rdel, are Costa and Cardoza both Hispanic? Deos that help them
Massa has nothing to lose by going on Beck and hanging his dirty laundry out there.
Yes he might be a scumbag but those are the ones that frequently have the best dirt on those around them.
Beck even hinted that he new Massa was dirty and compared him to a Mob Informant.
45 – You will take Deathcare and you will like it, Barry knows best.
Hawk, you may be right, but if Massa is a Queen and a liar, what is the point.
Charles if he takes down “Gollum”, more power to Massa.
“The Obama administration and Democrats in general are in trouble because they are not urgently and effectively addressing the issue that most Americans want them to: the frightening economic insecurity that has put a chokehold on millions of American families. . . . Instead of focusing with unwavering intensity on this increasingly tragic situation, making it their top domestic priority, President Obama and the Democrats on Capitol Hill have spent astonishing amounts of time and energy, and most of their political capital, on an obsessive quest to pass a health care bill.”
Quote from Bob Hebert? WHOA, the fog is being penetrated in some sections of the “reality based party”. Can you imagine a liberal such as Hebert writing that even a year ago?
Monumental mistake. Textbooks are going to write about this and the whacking the Democrats are going to take.
55 – Simple, keep the Blue on Blue drama in the news.
I think “whip counts” are a waste of time. When a congressman says, “I’m inclined to vote ‘no’,” that often is a message to the leadership that “I don’t like the bill as written. You’ll have to change it if you want me to support it.”
This is hardly original thinking on my part, btw. In any event, if a straightforward statement is in reality a coded signal, then how valid are nose counts based on such statements?
What I’ve described seems to be appx what Stupak is now doing.
Like many others, I deeply distrust potential “yes to no” votes from among liberal DEMs who support public option.
49.. i will be watching to see what they get paid. BTW, that doesnt include the doctor’s charges.
If people want health care costs to go down, they need to deregulate health care insurance, tax employer provided insurance, provide tax credits to allow people to buy their own insurance, and watch people’s thrifty shopping drive those costs waaaay down.
I should ask that the “pharmacy” charge be written off seeing as how I woke up during the procedure.
Jason, I know about those figures, but they hide some trends we should have beaten down further. Seastrand BARELY won against Capps in a big year, foreshadowing her five point loss in ‘96. We stalled in the State Senate, and slipped by in Assembly seats where there was a backlash against Willie Brown (then Speaker, the “Ayatollah of the Assembly”). In fact, less than 10,000 votes statewide gave the GOP 41 seats in the lower house; they picked up eight seats in razor tight races. Gray Davis won by twelve points for Lt.Gov, and Tom McClintock lost the Controller race by over 200,000 votes. Bilbray’s seat in San Diego was a marginal seat, and Rigg regained the NorCal seat he lost in 1992 against Dan Hamburg (a weak incumbent). Lehman lost CA-19 against Radanovich after he beat a 27 year old novice by a handful of votes in 1992 (0.5%). Bono won a Republican held district after Al McCandless retired (he beat the dad from “The Waltons” as I recall).
I’ll concede Pete Wilson’s fifteen point romp, but again, Kathleen Brown ran out of money and went silent towards the end of the campaign as Wilson racked up big margins with white voters using Prop 187 to stir up long standing bitterness with illegal immigrants. All told, we did well, but could have done better (namely, Feinstein’s 2 point win when she should have gone down in flames. No big name Republican took her on; that was a crime in and of itself).
mnw…
that is why my whip count is the most accurate one out there.
214 NO votes. For certain NO votes.
Every chicken hatched and counted. And not one more.
BTW he may or may not have done what WaPo reports, but take early reports from WaPo with salt. Will be interesting to hear if he will flush out his problems more with Glenn. I can’t watch till 5:30 due to a call, but I’m tivo’ing it.
If only Boxer had filed for the B seat in 1992 and Feinstein took the full term for Cranston’s seat; Huffington would likely have won, even with the Nannygate scandal (thanks, Arianna!). Of course, he likely would have lost in 2000 since Gore carried the state by twelve points, and of course, he was outed by then, so he might have had to step down or could have been challenged in the GOP primary.
60 – I had them try and bill my ins. company 10k for about 30m use of the O.R. (just the use of the room); ins paid them 5700, hospital was happy.
Okay vote counters here is the best info I have seen yet. Go to Campaign spot at:
http://Nationalreview.com
The NRCC has it
190 NO
192 Yes
49 Undecided
RE: BRADY & KIRK
Dear Bill & Mark:
Happily for you, your DEM opponents both carry more baggage than a Conestoga freight wagon. All you have to do is keep a laser-like focus on the issues of corruption & cronyism… you lucky, lucky bastids.
#57–
Add Herbert to the list of confirmed racists. Sad.
61. Thanks George good info.
WASHINGTON, March 9 (Reuters) – About 16 percent of Americans between the ages of 14 and 49 are infected with genital herpes, making it one of the most common sexually transmitted diseases, U.S. health officials said on Tuesday.
…
about 21 percent of women were infected with genital herpes, compared to only 11.5 percent of men, while 39 percent of blacks were infected compared to about 12 percent for whites, the CDC said.
—
Racist and sexist Herpes!
Those with the (-2) count seem to be correct.
Mnw, Kirk is the big winner here. Not only will he crush alexi in the Suburbs, but now he gets the Downstate Coattails of Brady and big GOP turnout there.
I’m sure this is going to help:
PELOSI HEALTHCARE: ‘We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it’…
Also
WASHINGTON (AP) – Major business groups say President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul is a job killer, and they’re launching a multimillion-dollar ad campaign to take that message to voters.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and groups ranging from contractors to retailers said Tuesday the Democratic health care bills would raise their expenses, while failing to control health care costs.
Advertisements will start airing nationwide Wednesday on cable television and shift in a few days to 17 states, targeting moderate and conservative Democrats whose votes are critical to passing the bill in the House. The campaign is estimated to cost between $4 million and $10 million, with the insurance industry paying part of the cost.
Obama knows passing HCR is an absolute political necessity. HCR is a central plank of the Democratic Party platform. If they cannot get it passed with congressional supermajorities and a president who makes Trotsky look like Hayek, they can never again use it to rally voters. What will replace it? Subsidized Snugglies for the nation’s “dangerously cold dog population?”
He will NOT give up this fight. They will eliminate this country’s private insurers by bureaucratic or judicial harassment if they need to.
Former Dodger Outfielder, Willie Davis, died today at 69.
RIP
I’m shocked to see Brady ahead. Remember, Mr Brady, Bob McDonnell showed you the way. Now all you have to do is follow it.
I am circulating a petition calling on Eric Massa to be indicted for crimes against humanity.
Anyone who introduces images of Rahm Emanuel naked into my brain MUST be punished severely.
IL is the perfect storm this cycle, methinks. Both wings of the GOP have someone to root and turnout for. Independents and soft Dems are outraged with the rampant corruption in the state Dem party, while everyone is fed up with the national Dem party for all varieties of reasons. I won’t delude myself into thinking that we’re in landslide territory, but five to seven point win are entirely reasonable. Assuming that, then, I am salivating at the prospect at down-ticket wins. Not a Topinka fan, but she seems poised to regain the Comptroller position. I doubt that Madigan and Jesse White are vulnerable, but at least we have candidates running in case the wave washes over them as well. Can we win 12 seats in the lower house and eight in the upper to take control of the legislature? What would that take? I imagine that most of the seats that the GOP lost over the last decade are suburban, but perhaps a few rural seats are Dem held and up for grabs. Anyone know?
I guess IL-8 is out of reach from what everyone seems to be saying, but what about the others? Any possibilities out there besides IL-10 and IL-14?
Jason, could solid victories by Brady and Kirk atop the ticket trickle down to big gains in the Legislature and CD out there?
BTW 6500 is what they are being billed, I’ll bet your ins. company settles that for like 4500.
Comment by KnightHawk
I had a bung job two years ago,no insurance, total cost $1671.oo
We need a strong candidate in MA-4; he can run on restoring shower curtains in the Congressional locker room. No one should have to envision their representatives in flagrante delicto.
George, if Walsh falls, then that shows one thing: The establishment can be wrong as in the case of Charlie Crist, but the grass roots aren’t always right. There needs to be some kind of pragmatic balance between the two.
“to be indicted for crimes against humanity.”
(yeah I wish I was joking)
—
lol funny.
Sound like the euro freaks who think government provided internet access should now be a human right.
That sounds exactly like Obama’s idiotic plan to make broadband available to everyone no matter the price.
Advertisements will start airing nationwide Wednesday on cable television and shift in a few days to 17 states, of the cost.
Comment by KnightHawk
A day late and a dollar short. They should have been doing this months ago.
I wish I could believe this poll right now…
But Go Brady!
Isn’t it ironic, George that only Obama can make a Republican win in Massachusetts? The GOP was massacred in the Bay State during the Clinton and Bush years. Now it seems to be creeping back to where it was in the state from the late 60s to the mid 70s.
How go things, Knight?
80 – No doubt, typically I don’t even use my insurance (using only for major things like the surgery I had to have last year), so I’ll shop around a bit though I don’t exactly want cheap service give ‘the area’ and my risks.
90 – Take it you saw the R.E. last night with both coulter and cupp? Funny one if you missed it.
#52, neither Costa (Italian-American) nor Cardoza (Portuguese-American) are Hispanic, but their districts are heavily Hispanic. If the GOP ran Hispanic conservatives against them they would likely pick off those two seats.
BayernFan, where can I see your Obamacare whip count?
No, Knight. I took my girlfriend and my new employee to Raleigh last night to check out the Imax theater. I was so exhausted when I went to bed I didn’t wake up till about 8 in the morning. I would have loved to see it though.
London will become the most highly taxed financial centre in the world when the new 50 per cent income tax rate for those earning £150,000 or more comes into force next month.
—
Not exactly something of which to be proud.
Are they trying to woo Obama heart?
Probably not, Knight, but I’m sure he sent them a few love letters after the new tax rates were announced.
By the way, that McNerney statment about voting NO was from an article LAST MONTH… 2/18..
http://www.morganhilltimes.com/news/263336-congressman-visits-morgan-hill
95 – Haha statement these days on HC have a shelf-life of about 24 hours.
What odds do you give Obamacare of passing, Knight?
95 – Hannity just repeated though there is current word to the same effect of that statement though (doesn’t make it so of course). I didn’t catch the source, who knows though.
44.34%
George and Wes, the IL State Seante is out of reach. Not enough seats up this cycle. It is 37-22 now, and Yes most of our losses were Surburban. We lost 5 seats in 2006. We should win maybe 4 or 5 at the most in 2010.
The House is more fluid. The Speaker is a Evil type, Madiagan, who has been Speaker since 1983 except for two years in 1995-97. It is 70-48 DEM, we got killed in 2008 with Hussein on the ticket. A big wave makes anything possible here, as Brady could carry the GOP downstate to knock off many DEM incumbents there.
We should win the IL-10 and 14.
These are Wellers and Hastert’s seats. We have two great recruits. Halverson is a feminist, and foster is a nitwit with Money. They both voted for HC.
In a wave we could take Hare’s West IL Seat.
100%
99. Hawk, you are optimistic good to see. The bogus March 18th deadline swayed you?
Thanks for the info, Jason.
Instead of a day late & a $ short, perhaps the Chamber ads will be like the Cavalry riding in at the end of a John Wayne movie– the one where Nancy Pelosi played the bad injun.
I give it 90% chance of passing, allowing for 10% for God to jump in and do a few more Murthas to save us.
Quixote you were at 100% on 1/18/2010 also
Skelton and Spratt aren’t in the best of health, DW. I wouldn’t wish them dead, but if God plans to pull a few more Murthas, then those will eb the guys most likely to go.
Gold water Repub…
my whip count is right here….
NO was at 215 in November.
Since then, Gordon has flipped to YES and Massa quit. BUT Cao has flipped to NO…
so NO stands now at 214, two votes short of the finish line.
I dont count any NO votes unless they voted NO before and have not publically flipped, or they were YES votes that HACE publically flipped to NO.
At one time Arcuri flipped to NO, but I read today that he is undecided.
104…now that you mention it, Pelosi looks a lot like the Indian “White Buffalo” in the 1970 John Wayne classic “Chisum.”
Bay, if a vote can be staved off till after the special to replace Wexler and the GOP can mount a campaign to mobilize seniors against the Dem running for the seat, then NO could get an extra vote at that time.
Chamber ads may backfire on the great unwashed, who still resent “big business”.It (HC) can’t be all bad if those evil corporate types are against it.
Reverse psychology may work better IE: have all the insurance companies come out for it.
That’s never going to happen, DQ.
Gordon is a Yes. We need a Tennessee Posse to talk some sense into him
102 – No.. I go back and forth each day lol.
Today is a optimistic day because of likely further delays,(but I expected that) and knowing that business and insurance are about to hit the airwaves to blunt any movement obama thinks he making with all these lame speeches full of lies.
Ask me again tomorrow and it might be 52% for passage though. If they simply don’t care at all, they will pass it, but if that were really the case it would be done already. This BS about cover for abortion isn’t going to help them back home when they vote yes, and they know that (or should), so I think it’s just a smoke screen to delay and gum up the works as a way to avoid voting again. We’ll see.
Quixote you were at 100% on 1/18/2010 also
Comment by Jason T —
Hopefully I am consistently 100% WRONG.(Where’s helen thomas)
114. Correct. As Hatch said today, even if Pelosi was 20 votes short, she would be on the floor this week twisting arms, and giving out Pirate Booty.
Wes
That is Palm Beach County. It is filled with both Seniors and Jewish voters ( the reason Wexler got elected was the latter ). I would think at first blush the chances of PB County going Republican are not high, even with lots of seniors plenty ticked off.
Quixote LOL. Fair enough.
I would tag team Boxeer and Botox to stop HC, But Helen Thomas is just to Armageddeon
My honest assessment is that Obamacare never passes. The Dems have had to change tactics and strategy on it too many times. A rabid chimpanzee would be a better salesman for it than Obama. Even many union rank-and-file members are concerned about it because of its potential impact on their very generous health-care packages, thus putting pressure on a lot of Dems. Many Dems are looking more at their own reelection bids than at some ethereal future empowerment for their party. Big bills rarely pass during election years. Given all that, I just don’t see it happening. Pelosi, Reid, and Obama remind me of the Big Bad Wolf in front of the little pig’s house made of brick. We all know how that worked out.
i>But Helen Thomas is just to Armageddeon~~~jason T
No guts, no glory.
The last poll saw Hare seven points down in the generic re-elect question (40-47), but I could not find any cross tabs on registration, etc. IL-17 used to be a GOP seat until Evans took it, and we ran some strong races against him. My guess is that 17 was redrawn to be more favourable to a Dem incumbent.
The issue of having the wrong seats up in 2010 is coming up across the board. Many states whose Senates flipped or became totally out of reach for the GOP will only have the 2006 seats up this year for the picking; all those 2008 losses that were unduly influenced by the Obama wave will only be up when he’s back on the ballot (much like the two classes of US Senators who won’t have to feel the wrath of November this year). The good thing is that at least in one state, NY, we only need two seats to put us back in the game (one would give us a tie, so I am not sure what good that would do if Cuomo wins, which he likely will).
Speaking of Cuomo, my WSJ newsletter said that we are closer to getting Levy to switch and run with the GOP. He has $4 million in his account, much more than Lazio. I looked over his record, and I must say that I am impressed with his history of backing tax and spending cuts to balance his budgets in Erie Co. (that’s Buffalo, right?). I think he could give Cuomo a run for his money; Lazio needs to switch to the Bimbette or run for some down-ticket office instead.
I’m aware of the nature of the district, Gary, but Scott Brown won without nearly the proportions of seniors in MA as the GOP can probably count on in Wexler’s district. I’m not necessarily saying such a strategy will work, but if the seniors turn out in force and the Jews aren’t motivated, then an upset is at least a slender possibility.
Fortune favours the bold, Jason; time to suit up and tag Helen Thomas.
This may be Quinn’s high mark… with his massive
tax increase he is pushing and I live in a town of
about 40 thousand and it was announced today
that we are getting a 900 thousand cut in state
funds. Even the downstate dems will be turning
on this guy. Also I am in Il-17 Hare’s district
and there is a good chance he is toast..only a
39 percent re-elect score. I hope Illinois
leads the way against socialism.
We will even video tape the event for you.
Here in NC, George, the Dems are frightened as Hell Obama and Perdue have caused their wave to crest. They’re essentially resigned at this point to a Richard Burr victory. Although they have decent-sized majorities in the Legislature, their margins are not enormous. Scandal, a sour economy, and a trend away from the Dems leads many to believe the GOP can recapture one or both houses. Also, despite early handicapping favoring the Dems in the CD, many Dems are thinking the Obama-friendly votes several Dem Congressmen have taken this Congress could severely hamper their reelection bids even in places where currently the GOP is perceived as having no hope.
We really ought to tailor our candidates to suit the districts they run in, a la Pelosi in 2006 and 2008. We should have recruited a Jewish Republican to run in Wexler’s seat as an insurance policy. I know people say that we don’t stoop to playing identity politics, but damn it, I want to win! It’s a fact that many ethnics groups feel more comfortable supporting their own. We held the district covering Santa Monica, Malibu and Venice in CA for several years with a Jewish woman on the GOP ticket (Bobbi Fielder), and only lost it when she ran for the Senate against Cranston (she lost the primary to Ed Zschau). We’ll see how it plays out in Florida, but at some point, our strategists and recruiters need to wise up and accept that now and then, we need to bend to political realities and ensure a strong fight in as many districts as possible.
119. Wes, well said
Amen, George.
Dick Morris’ group is supposed to start running some targeted ads too.
DW
If Skelton & Spratt were shovel-ready projects like Murtha, that would be 2 less “no” votes, so Pelosi’s job would be easier. Skelton won’t flip. Period. You can take that to the bank. I haven’t heard anything about Skelton being in bad health. He’s been crippled since before he came to Congress.
Massa’s seat will likely stay vacant until the new Congress, I predict. Patterson can run out the clock. There is misinformation that the seat has to be filled within 40 days of the vacancy, by special election. Not exactly! Within 40 days after Patterson DECLARES a vacancy. And when might that be?
This si the S*&T that really pisses me off.
Here the Dems are trying to ram thru a Marxist Bill that will destroy the US, and frickin Susan Collins is helping the DEMS avoid a Filibuster on the Jobs Bill.
WTF Where is the Hardball
Wes, five in the senate and 9 in the assembly: NC is definitely doable. We actually gained a little there in 2008. A limited victory, though, since Perdue would still have to sign a redistricting bill (or do you have a commission to handle that?).
Vaya con Dios, Jason. Make sure after you’ve finished–er–pleasuring Miss Thomas, you find your way to your nearest drinking hole and drink Bombay Sapphire till you can’t even remember your name.
97– I say a 20% chance that Obamacare passes (in anything close to its current form).
But I won’t feel better until I can say 0%, when they finally, really give up.
Wexler may have further problems as news of various state and federal figures tax-payer-funded expenses has begun to leak.
It will hurt some of the R’s as well notably Dan Rooney’s son or grandson. But the Dems are in bigger trouble.
MNW, I laughed out loud at that; “shovel ready-projects” in reference to grave-diggers. I really needed that!
I vote that to be the new HHR term for ageing incumbents: “Shovel-ready.”
131 — Jason, Collins is in a Democratic state. As has been said many times, sometimes we have to allow for them to at least “look” bipartisan. Let’s at least be thankful that Susan Collins has been consistent on voting against Obamacare.
George, you need at least 32 votes in the NY State Senate to conduct any Legislation. Right now it is 31-30 DEM after the Bronx DEM was expelled. If there were a tie after 2010, the GOP will be able to shut down any DEM favored redistrict plan for the census.
Wont matter though, I assume the GOP will easily take back the NY Upper chamber and protect the possible 5 to 6 new GOP US Reps.
The NY LT. Governor does not get a tie breaking vote.
The Legislature and Governor redistrict here in NC, Jason. If the GOP gained even just one chamber, then they would force the Dems to compromise on redistricting. If the sides couldn’t agree, then the federal courts would redraw the lines. Most Judges on the Fourth Circuit are GOP appointees, so the chances of a map friendly to the Republicans being drawn by the Court are good.
BTW, I am thinking of undertaking handicapping the state legislatures up this year as I have not found any comprehensive resources covering them. Any advice or help would be appreciated. Perhaps a collaborative effort with various HHRs taking on their home regions and/or areas of strength? It’s census time and ideal for us to look at the impact this coming decade.
right AIN, but she is not up until 2014. I agree that they have to vote more moderate, but this is unique situation with RECON on Healthcare.
We need to shut the Senate down. The voters will back us up too
If it’s 5pm on the east coast, then it’s time to start discussing Helen Thomas’ sex life again, I see.
Since she & I are about the same age, I should volunteer, but… there are some things even I will not do for Mother Russia, comrades.
The only thing I’m sure of: if it aint passed before Easter break, it aint passing. Because those bozos are gonna get blown away by the anger back home.
George
“The Thicket” at the National Legislature Site. Do not know address, I always Google it
RE: IL-17 This poll was taken back in November… and if
anything it should be worse today.
The first question of the poll asked: “If the election for your Member of Congress were held today, would you likely vote to re-elect Phil Hare?”
A. Yes 39.59%
B. No 47.03%
C. Unsure 13.38%
Levy is quite bullish about his ability to take on Sheldon Silver (I typed “Silverstein” at first, but had to check it as something didn’t sound right) having served with him in the Dem caucus. I am generally wary of party-switchers, to be sure, but in this case, we may get something/someone better than our own likely nominee in Lazio. Plus, NY could use an upstate governor having been dominated by the city and suburbs downstate for too long.
One thing we should all take into account regaridng redistricting is the Obama Justice Department. Unde rthe 1965 Voting Rights Act, it can intervene in the redistricting of many states if minorities are not “sufficiently represented” in the redrawn maps.
beck prepping his audience for massa.
Jason,
I saved it to my favourites earlier today. What I am looking for is better coverage of developments at the local level vice pure numbers.
http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=16507
I may be getting in over my head taking on the entire nation, which is why I suggested breaking it down into regions. I am well versed on the West Coast and some other mountain states with an insight into NY, VA, WI and a few other states. Most of the middle is out of my league, though.
I invite the DOJ to interfere with redistricting on those terms; that will only benefit the GOP by packing in minority votes into heavily D seats and thus withering down D registration numbers in marginal seats.
Massa interview starting.
124. Just stayin. Teachers all over the State of Illinois are being layed off because the State is not paying out funds to any of the Public School districts. These teachers are all unionized and supported Obama, but they are getting dumped left and right.
149. Sorry George, do not know any data sites for the Legislatures. Barone used to put it in his Political almanacs.
That doesn’t always work to the GOP’s benefit, George. Although the Justice Department did not intervene against the Texan middecade redistricing in 2006, the Voting Rights Act let the Supreme Court intercede. The redrawn 23rd District was a partial factor–though not the deciding one–in Ciro Rodriguez’ defeat of Henry Bonilla that year.
Well, we know the following states will have no legislative races this year:
NJ
VA
LA
MI.
Some seem to think this guy really has a shot at Wyden. Recall that Rassmussen polled it 49-35, and apparently he is just starting to become known:
Jim Huffman: A credible and serious challenger for a Senate seat
“He says that the abortion issue has “corrupted American politics for way too long” and that it is so difficult because, unlike most individual rights cases, it pits the rights of two individuals — the mother and the unborn — against each other. If forced into one camp or the other, he says he would be characterized as pro-choice.
Huffman is a fiscal conservative and voted against Measures 66 and 67. He supported Sen. John McCain’s bid for president. He says that he liked Sarah Palin’s GOP convention speech but that she is not the right person to run the country, remarking that she has been “entertaining.” He’s reliably supportive of private property rights and feels that the populace is overtaxed. He thinks most of Congress’ bailouts and proposed health care packages have been wrong for the country.
And, perhaps most important in 2010, he thinks Washington, D.C., needs fresh leadership and participation from people who aren’t seeking a career in politics and who won’t just follow a party line.”
http://www.oregonlive.com/hovde/index.ssf/2010/03/jim_huffman_a_credible_and_ser.html
All other states have legislative races coming up. Dems are likely safe in the following:
MA
RI
MA
AR
CA
OR
HI
WA
NM
VT
The GOP is likely safe in the following:
ID
WY
UT
AZ
ND
SD
NE
OK
KS
TX
TN
SC
GA
FL
A headline that sounds like veritable angelic song to mnw’s ears: “Hoyer Says Won’t Meet March 18th Deadline”
Oh, yes! Just keep inching toward that Easter break, fellas.
There are no places where Dems are likely to make gains, but the GOP has solid shots of removing Dems from any power in at least one state legislative house in the following states:
AK
CO
MT
MN
WI
IL
IA
IN
MI
OH
KY
AL
NC
DE
PA
NY
NH
ME
Oh, I forgot. Dems are safe in WV, while the GOP is safe in MO.
The more Massa talks, the worse he looks.
CT is a question makr at this point. I’m going to have to examine the state more before I determine if the Republicans have a shot of recapturing either hosue of the legislature.
I think Ciro was an exception to the rule; Bonilla didn’t look like he took the threat too seriously, and lost even more ground in the run-off given he GE vote total at 49% (thus barely requiring a run-off to begin with).
I’ll have to pick up Barone’s latest Almanac for my project, it seems. It’s worth the money, but I still hate dropping $75 for the hard copy. I may try for a paperback on Overstock, but I think even those run $50.
Haven’t heard much about this guy in OR. I would love to see Wyden go down. Nothing personal, but he reminds me of LBJ’s quote about Jerry Ford; “He’s a nice guy, but he spent too much time playing football without a helmet.”
I agree, Chek. He’s entertaining though.
Wes, no seats in MI? Are you certain? I thought that they had their legislatures up along with the governor. MI seems like an ideal take-over given the state of the Dem party at the local level.
I’m aware, George. That’s why I said redistricting was a factor but not the deciding one. Had the 23rd not been redistricted, then Bonilla would ahve had no opponent to begin with. It was the blindside of a mid-year redistrict by the Supreme Court that threw the race into turmoil at the worst possible time.
Sorry, George…My mistake. I meant MS rather than MI. I erred.
KY si the only state where the Legislature and Governor never run in the same year. Odd state, KY.
While I am all for the 10th Amendment and states rights, is there really a need for states to require run-offs for Federal campaigns? If they cannot term limit federal representatives, they should not be allowed to impact Federal races in other ways either (to be consistent, if nothing else). Georgia used to do that, which helped us take Fowler’s seat in 1992, but then got rid of it just in time to allow Cleland to avoid a run-off against Millner in 1996. It just seems like a silly requirement. Parliaments don’t require 50% + 1 in a FPTP system, and although we are different, it does not seem worth the costs for a two year term to hold yet another election just for a supposed mandate.
My darn netbook crashed (an Asus). Actually the system freezes up everytime it is turned on. It appears as though it could be an XP operating issue. Have I mentioned that windows sucks?
Anyway, these are 2 absolutely shocking polls. Crist might as well become a Dem or Indy. He has lost all creditability.
The polls have all turned dramatically towards Rubio.
As for the IL poll, I am going to withhold judgement until I see one or two more that confirm. A D incumbent is bound to be very unpopular especially in IL given what happened with Blago. See Patterson, NY for another example of how tough it is to replace a disgraced Gov. We will just have to see what happens with Sandford’s seat. The GOP is lucky it happened when the trend is turning their way.
BTW – the friggin netbook was purchased 7 months ago. Man, I am pissed.
Georgia has reinstated the runoff rule, George. That’s why Chambliss had to face Martin twice in 2008. If we had the runoff rule nationally, then Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, and Virginia could all possibly be short one Dem Senator right now.
160 Reminds me of some posters.
Get a Toshiba netbook, MD. Mine’s incredibly reliable.
Got it on MS; makes sense. I think we are limited to only four or five in CA assembly, and only if Meg runs a strong race against Moonbeam. Maybe one more in the senate, but we got screwed with the 2001 gerrymander (some would argue that we have what we do thanks to that, but being so low, what’s one or two more seats? I don’t think we would fall below the 1/3 mark in either house as the most vulnerable seats survived in 2008 when McClintock’s old senate district stayed Red despite the Obama wave). We should keep everything we have in CA and gain one in Orange county that we were robbed of in 2006. A lot depends on whether or not Abel Maldonado gets confirmed for Lt.Gov; his seat could potentially flip, but most of his seat is rural, even if it is central coast and more Dem friendly. I think we can keep it in a bad year.
Your brain on drugs
Thanks for that tip Wes. I looked at one on-line today. How much batter power do you have?
It says, 2 1/2 hours, MD, but mine tends to last about 4 hours.
I’ll give you Alaska and Minnesota on that list, Wes; Stevens started climbing back after his trial was shown to be mostly trumped up, and the Clown could not beat Coleman in a fair fight. BTW, I think that Coleman was wise to skip running for governor this year; he deserves a chance to get his seat back after that stupid independent screwed him over before the state Dem party got the chance to screw him in the courts. Webb might have lost a run-off, but Allen was pretty good at stuffing his foot in his mouth by then, so I am not sure. Besides, I would rather see a Sen. Cucinelli vice George Allen making a comeback.
George, try your library. Barone is at mine. Try the used book market at Amazon, very good I use it all the time. No sales tax either
Love it.. Biden goes to Israel and scolds them, more smart diplomacy.
Well,I think Smith would have won a runoff in Oregon too, George. He lost to Merkley only because the Constitution Party–which for some reason hates him more than any Dem–siphoned off critical votes. In a one-one-one I think Smith would have won. In Montana, Burns would have faced Tester without a Libertarian splitting the GOP vote. Black turnout in Kansas City and St Louis would have been down for McCaskill as well.
+10 Brady
any bets on what Kirk is?
+12 over Alex G.
MD, try and put it into safe mode. F8 I believe.
I’ll look, Jason, but this is Hawaii, where doing anything intelligent like reading is frowned upon as being a “haole” (read “white man”) waste of time. The libraries here are not really up to date in temrs of books, either. My card and my wife’s card are more decorations for our wallets than useful tools for self-enrichment.
JT,
Already tried that. Didn’t work – still froze up. It is now driving me nuts.
In contrast, the only seats the GOP took from the Dems without majority votes last decade were the seat Talent held, the former Coleman seat, and the seat Rubio will win. Demographics in runoffs in all three instances would have favored the GOP.
Ras Generic is 44-37 republican.
Wes, with Smith in Oregon. If someone is going to vote 3rd party, it means they never would vote for Gordon smith in the first place.
It is not like smith would have received their votes if the 3rd party was not on the ballot. It is a wasted vote from the fringe
Totally forgot about MT with Tester; Burns was also climbing back from the dead. Talent may not have pulled it out, though; the environment was toxic enough, and besides, the polls in St. Louis and Kansas City always stay open as long as necessary to help the Dem. The point is that in each of those races, we fell under the Dem candidate when we should have out-polled them to begin with. Environment sucked, but frankly, some of our candidates weren’t so hot, either.
George what is going on with Roy Ashburn, the Conservative. He came out as Gay yesterday after his DUI.
Will he stay with the GOP
I disagree, Jason. The Constitution Party cost Smith the January 1996 special against Wyden. In November, Smith won. In 2008, the Constitution Party again fielded a candidate for the express purpose of beating Smith. He lost. Why the Constitution Party hates Gordon Smith so much is beyond me. He was mostly loyal to the party. He was about the best the GOP could ever hope for in the state. For some reaosn, the Consitution Party decided he was Satan though. Their purpose in Oregon became not to advance conservative ideals but to destroy Smith’s political career. Odd fixation for a party, I’d say.
Well, George, it’s not well known, but the Dems tried to rob Talent of the seat in 2002. He caught wind of what they were trying and put a stop to it quick, fast, and in a hurry though. In a runoff, I think he would have won.
DQ
RE: BANZAI B***zh**!
Before we get down to Helen Thomas’ sex life, I wish to state that I call “banzai b***zh**! on “Yamamoto’s body was thrown from the plane. His hand was stll holding his sword.” Oh, I’m so sure. And I’ll guess his now unseeing eyes were staring at the rising sun, too. And his last words (before grasping his sword) were… Long Live the Emperor!
An easy question for you: WHERE were Marine fighter pilot Pappy Boyington AND USN Commander Richard O’Kane (Tang captain) when the POTUS approved the recommendations that each be awarded the Medal of Honor?
Upon further reflection, I amend my question to simply, “Where was Boyington?” O’Kane isn’t a good fit.
Wasn’t O’Kane in a POW camp? I know that the Tang was sunk by it’s own torpedo when the gyro froze.
Probably in a jap prison camp.
MNW, you forgot about the bento box Yamamoto was feasting on when ejected from his plane, sword in hand. The chopsticks were miraculously retained by his other hand as the Ahi roll remained unconsumed yet apparently undamaged throughout the ordeal.
I thought that whole thing was a bit of a farce. One thing that is (gruesomely) true is that Admiral Kidd’s Academy Ring was found welded to the conning station on board the bridge of his flagship, USS Arizona. The heat of the magazine explosion was so fierce that no human remains were found above decks in the forward part of the ship.
FWIW, Wiki confirms that both were in POW camps. Again, it’s Wiki, so trust what you will.
Before we get down to Helen Thomas’ sex life, I wish to state that I call “banzai b***zh**! on “Yamamoto’s body was thrown from the plane. His hand was stll holding his sword.” Oh, I’m so sure. And I’ll guess his now unseeing eyes were staring at the rising sun, too. And his last words (before grasping his sword) were… Long Live the Emperor!
~~~MNW
Could well be wartime bravo sierra, however for you edification:
see second para
I live in Hare’s district. And yes, it was redistricted to make it more Democratic. Macoupin County, heavily Democratic, was moved from Shimkus to Hare (Shinkus had been able to carry the county). And it sankesa round to take in the minority areas of Springfield and Decatur. But the real boatload of votes is in Rock Island County. Tom Railsback used to represent the district when it was primarily Rock Island and Western Illinois.
There is a bit of a Tea Party movement in southern Macoupin County, Jersey County and Calhoun County.
I think in a wave election Hre could be vulnerable to the right candidate. The question is who is the candiate running against him. I can’t even recall the name.
If Kirk and Brady run strong winning campaigns, it will help down ballots races. But their election will also provide the Illinois GOP with some leadership, something we’ve beeen lacking for years. They could have seen we had stronger candidates to run against Madigan and White, had a stronger candidate in IL-08 and even a stronger one to run against Jerry Costello in IL-12. We won’t have the same opporunity in 2012 as we do this year.
Pappy was picked up by a jap sub after ditching his corsair.
“49 Undecided”
Every single one of the undecided would vote for this if they could get away with it. That is the sad part.