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IL: Giannoulias Leads Kirk By 3%One more poll to chew on today from Scott Rasmussen for the US Senate race in Illinois. US SENATE – ILLINOIS (Rasmussen) This poll was done March 8th among 500 likely voters. I am a little surprised considering the poll yesterday showed Republican Bill Brady ahead by double digits in the gubernatorial race.
86 Responses to “IL: Giannoulias Leads Kirk By 3%” |
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Bad poll by RAS. He cannot be right all the time. when Kirk starts running ads on this mobster, alexi will sink
Any place else a guy with this much dirt would have to resign the ticket in shame. Leading in a poll with his family bank about to cost the FDIC a boatload? Known gangsters in the tapestry. What a cesspool. Illinois gets the governance it deserves.
The Ras has had a number of erratic polls lately. Colorado was the most recent example. Since nothing has happened to change the dynamic of the race, I have to assume this is one of those.
Blessed be the also rans, for the Meek will inherit the cull pile.
Garbage in garbage out….
MNW, that is Hatch talking publicly. Behind the scenes he is all over Matheson to stay a No Vote. If he does not flip, Matheson gets confirmed
Hi, Jason. How go things?
Brandon, I think PPP does a good job on the East Coast, but there awful showing in TX says to me that hey are not a National Pollster of Merit
Hi Wes, just trying to ignore Ras today. Abberation I hope on Kirk
Wes, you ever read Hawkins at Rightwingnews? Good post today on this Whole HC mess and on how it will fail. He is a doomer usually
#5 Alright man, that’s pretty good, hahahaha
Well, Jason, all press surrounding the G Man has been negative recentl;y. As I noted above, many of the Ras’ polls recently have been erratic from week to week. I see no reason it’s not an aberration. The Ras had polls like this in 2006 too where from week to week one guy would be up then down. I put little stock in the Ras this early because of that. Once we get closer to the election, then his polls will start being consistent.
#8. They nailed Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Colorado, West Virginia, and Minnesota in 2008. They aren’t all East Coast states.
I’ve never visited Rightwing News, Jason. Can you provide a link?
http://www.rightwingnews.com
They blew Texas this year and NY-23 last year, Brandon–although the latter can reasonably be chalked up to developments on the ground during the poll. Face it, man. Your God is not infallible.
Kuhl Not running for his old seat (Massa) in NY
Thanks, Jason.
Did I say infallible? And it’s not like they had Hutch winning, that would be a royal f*** up.
Justice Roberts is going after Georgetown Prof who started bogus Retirement Rumor. That guy’s career is finished
Brandon, so did every one else in 2008. It was a prez year. They blew Indiana
RAS did not publish the indie breakdown in IL?
I am skeptical if indies go for Brady but not Kirk.
The good news is that the worse is yet to happen to Alex G
You didn’t have to say the word, Brandon. You defend every goddamn thing they do as if it’s the requirement for your continued existence. You may not say they’re infallible, but you clearly believe it.
Brandon they had Perry down outside the MOE from where he ended up. The polls should have had a 95% confidence level, but he was what 7% from actual result or more, and MOE was either 3 or 4%
That is a bust as far as polling goes.
Brandon also quotes those morons at WAPO’s the Fix.
One day they said 80 year old Mike Iltch was running for Mich Gov, they also said Dorgan was retracting his retirement
I hope nothing too serious on HC happens while I am out.
All I can say if the democrats are talking tricks and passing student loan bills through Recon they are in deep trouble
still no legislative language and no CBO score.
dang it if only that was available Pelosi could passed HC today.
I see a little of Queeg in Pelosi. She is going to be counting out quarts of strawberries soon
Wes, the Meek polling is awful, and have Pro amnesty Hicky at 50% in Co.
I just feel PPP now has agenda after their good calls in NJ,MASS, and VA.
Jensen is pumping up the DEMS to help them with HC
That could be, Jason. Brandon will never believe they’re not the greatest thing ever to happen to the universe though.
Wes,
Are you feeling better yet? It used to take me a couple of days sometimes.
Oh, I was feeling fine when I woke up, Marv. I always drink water when I’m having my alcohol to make sure I don’t develop a hangover. I had a 36-hour hangover in 2000 and decided after that I’d make sure I never had another.
Ras normally has a good rep, but there are WAY too many undecideds to make tis poll relevant. He pushes ppl in his Prez tracking poll so responses make up 99%, but here only 85% make a selection? Ras must be getting cold feet, or a fish in the mail from the Chicago Democrat mafia.
#21. Go back and look at the numbers. SurveyUSA was number 1(off by 0.96), PPP was number 2(off by 1.04), ARG was third, Zogby was fourth, and the great Rasmussen was fifth.
This is from the WSJ:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg
Oh and they blew Indiana? Having Obama winning 50-49 is blowing it?
Rdel, it seems to me that the Bishops are holding up Stupak, because they want more than a promise. They feel what we do, Obama will just sign the Senate bill with no Recon.
Hatch is ready for Bloodsport, and Reid wants no part of that
Besides, my sales babes are on track today to exceed the banner day they had yesterday. The kind of elation that brings always helps in recovering from a binge-drinking session.
Montana was the biggest blown call from PPP(D) in 2008.
All right! Someone get the Hannibal Lecter mask out for Brandon! He’s going rabid on us.
Brandon, what is up here dude? You defend PPP like they are kin.
I do not give a F*&k what they did 2 years ago in a base election.
Jensen blew TX. I respect your number crunching, but I like others go by trends and between the lines
you know what? I am going to lay off Brandon, he did a great job on the NJ Election.
My only real purpose is the Killing of Marxist Care at this point
Apparently Brandon is the High Priest of the Church of the Painful PPP, Jason. High Priests are always the storngest and most vociferous in defense of their gods.
Yes, Brandon is very defensive when anyone questions PPP.
I think it’s because it’s run by a young guy (remember the days of never trust anyone over 30?). Of course, PPP also has the old nut-job who used to head the North Carolina ACLU.
The game changer in the MASS polls were Rothenberg and Cook. They were the first ones to see the Brown surge and put it on the line and predicted he would win. PPP showed Brown leading but latter in the game
the real schmuks are Quiinipac
rdelbov,
Your candidate in Kentucky just dropped out.
The PPP poll released January 10 had Brown up 48-47. Cook moved the race to tossup on January 14.
Insider Advantage
Rubio 60
Crist 26
Just in:
Carville’s poll still has Corzine up 4 points.
I am curious as to why PPP(D) is finding so few young people voting in our primaries.
IA has the 18-29 crowd comprising 14% of our electorate whereas PPP(D) has them at 5-6%.
Jason T, agreed about PPP. They are losing credibility because of their bad call on TX-Gov Primary.
Agreed, Mark.
It is hard for the GOP to win in IL. May be G’s bank problems will do the trick.
Their poll on Florido was a real stinko. Meek up with indies. Haha. Sure he is. Not ever and certainly not in this environment.
BTW, I love the way Bibi waited until Biden showed up to announce expansion of the settlements. Didn’t Obama and the Dems tell us that Bush was the cause of the stalled peace talks?
PPP is a good regional pollster, nothing more
Wes
Do you think I should go see Karl Rove? I am torn about it.
Chekote, Bibi’s brother ARI, was killed during the raid on entebbe in 1976. He is a huge Israeli hero, and their family are warriors
Phil, I agree . The Meek poll really has me down on PPP. And the CO poll with Hick at 50%?
I would do it if for no other reason than to hear what he has to say, Chek. Grnated, Rove was a horrible campaign manager who managed more losers than winners as clients and got lucky twice with Bush’s campaigns, but he does have strong insights.
If this were 2006, I could see Hickelooper at 50 or above, Jason. That doesn’t make sense this year though.
Wes, 2002 was a good Rove year. To win back the Senate in Bush first by year. Granted 9/11 helped, but that was impressive.
#54
Yes. I know. The Raid on Entebbe. I remember when it happened. We couldn’t believe when the news broke about the rescue.
Ask him why the hell he had Bush in California the last week of the 2000 campaign?
brain dead
Bibi is sexy. Has charisma. He is tough, smart. Oye, I love him.
I don’t believe Rove is a genius. Bush lost the popular vote and won Florida thanks to military ballots. In 2004, we were still under the 9/11 effect.
Maybe all the undecides are breaking for the Drat????
Jason, Rove got lucky in 2000, 2002, and 2004. Had Nader not been on the ballot in 2000, then Bush would have lost. 9/11 and arrogance by dems in the Senate helped in 2002. In 2004, a late gaffe by Kerry and the fact that Bin Laden endorsed Kerry just before the election were the deciding factors. Once Rove had no perfect storms at his back, look at how fast things went south. Bush cratered in popularity in summer of 2005 and never recovered. Rove was repsonsible for policy, and what he was doing only hurt the cause. Rove is a hugely overrated political strategist who managed a few fluke victories because of mistake by his opponents. I would put him and Mike Murphy on the list of guys I’d never hire to run a campaign for me.
That would make sense if the G Man didn’t have a noteworthy scandal currently in the news, Tina.
or Cheney in Hawaii
Wes, its a joke.
I think the Il Rino candidate is a weaker candidate than the othoer guy, and its two different races.
Still a long time to play out though.
PPP is a good regional pollster, nothing more
Comment by Jason T — March 10, 2010 @ 6:16 pm
They are a Drat pollking firm too.
Why does PPP bother with RV polls if they supposedly have such a good LV model? And why are we seeing such strange sample demographics? These things make me question the integrity of that company. It seems they’re riding on a few good calls to now be a cheerleader for Dem candidates. (Case in point: CO-Gov)
Wes,kirk needs to ramp it up, but its really up hill since he is not energiziing conservatives in the #s needed.
The government ran up the largest monthly deficit in history in February, keeping the flood of red ink on track to top last year’s record for the full year.
The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the February deficit totaled $220.9 billion, 14 percent higher than the previous record set in February of last year.
The deficit through the first five months of this budget year totals $651.6 billion, 10.5 percent higher than a year ago.
The G Man is self-destructing right now, Tina. The best thing for Kirk to do is barnstorm the state and spend minimal money till late rin the year. Once Labor Day rolls around, Kirk can ramp up a huge spending spree against an opponent who won’t have the resources to counter. Till then, Kirk just needs to press the flesh and keep his name out there while prominently opposing Obamacare. If he started spending heavily now, then he’d neutralize much of his advantage in the late summer and fall.
So far, the Obumbler has spent over $2 trillion….
I agree Wes, it would be foolish for him to unload his war chest at this time.
That’s one reason my daughter will be growing up as a Bahamian rather than an American, Tina.
The Obumbler will have spent $3 trillion at last by 9/30/10 – the end of the fiscal year.
That just makes me sick, Tina.
Yup, and they said that bush was a big spender.
JT
You have more confidence in Hatch than I. You’re counting on reports about what he supposedly said privately, & I about hurled when I read what Hatch said PUBLICLY, immediately after the appointment was announced.
I trust the RCP averages (& the consensus here) about Rubio & Kirk. They’ll be fine. There’s just no way that Brady is up 10 while Kirk is down 3 simultaneously. Also, NOTHING HAS HAPPENED in IL to shake up the Kirk/Giannoulis race since the last RAS poll.
I agree, Mnw. As I’ve pointed out, the Ras has had a number of erratic polls lately. This looks like one of them to me.
Bush in CA 2000 was foolish, but polling in 2004 in HI showed Bush and Kerry tied in late October. Ultimately, undecideds broke over 80% to Kerry, in line with Barone’s theory that undecideds almost always break for the challenger, often at levels of over 80% of them. Thus, with about ten percent undecided, over 80% of them went for Kerry; quite plausible indeed.
Hawaii has for years been overwhelmingly Dem, but they usually do back incumbents (Regan won HI in 84 as Nixon did in ‘72; Carter edged Ford out by less than 1%). Having their patriotism questioned for years apparently led many HI voters to lean towards backing a President in office as a measure of their patriotic support. To wit, Bush, Jr., performed much better in HI in 2004 compared to his 2000 blowout. Sadly, that trend is fading as the older voters pass on and are replaced by haole hippies and Pinko youngsters who want cradle-to-grave care via the Feds.
JT/MD,
With Hafer out in PA-12, I am hearing rumblings that Russel’s folks are pushing to run as an Indy in the Special if Burns takes the nomination. Any solid word on that? Is Russel himself egotistical enough to screw the party over? I can see him having a legitimate claim to the nomination were he to challenge for the primary (he has every right to do so), but to foil the very party that gave him the chance to take on Murtha to begin with just ain’t right.
Michael Barone discusses that in his feature on Hawaii in the Almanac of American Politics, George. Too bad Lingle’s so far been unable to make Hawaii seriously competitive for the GOP again yet.
Wes, looks like they’ve all moved up to the new thread. I wrote that to counter TB’s suggestion that Cheney was wasting his time coming out here. Lots of devout Christians in HI, too; they were perfect fodder for Bush in ‘04.
My take on Giannaoulias versus Kirk poll is that Mark Kirk has not brought back in some of the conservative voters who see him as too moderate or liberal for them. AT the same time, I think Alexie has seen just about as much support as he’s likely to see.
Kirk should pick up if he can reassure conservatives without loosing his suburban moderate base.
Kirk is going to lose because he is a Liberal and a Sodomite!!!!