A Threat…Or A Promise?
One more day to sleep in, how nice for me. And I was brought to laughter by a quote that was linked to by Political Wire from The Washington Post.
At the same time, Obama intends to lobby wavering House Democrats to vote for a Senate version of the legislation and to support the subsequent reconciliation process, which Republicans have characterized as an unjustified use of majority power. Among the rewards Obama is ready to offer, White House officials said, are election-year visits to competitive congressional districts, where a presidential appearance can bring in hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign funds
I am sure Governors Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine as well as US Senator Martha Coakley were very, very gratefull for Barack Obama campaigning for them.
one
Did everyone see the comments on the Politico article? The wavering Democrats most definitely dont want Obama anywhere near them come November. The Progs in safe Blue districts might. That is as Dave implies a better threat than a promise, vote for my bill or I will come and wreck your election changes by showing up in your district!
White House officials said, are election-year visits to competitive congressional districts
…
HAHAHAHA!
They
don’t
want
him…..
That is one of the funniest things I have read in a long, long time.
To sum up GM, the only Dems who will want to see him in the fall are the ones who don’t need him – or can’t be hurt enough by him.
SO it beings…
March 15 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. and the U.K. have moved “substantially” closer to losing their AAA credit ratings as the cost of servicing their debt rose, according to Moody’s Investors Service
Is slaughter constitutional?
Dodd to Unveil Plan That Expands Fed Powers
AP
This is like the old joke that goes ” the winner will get two nights all expenses paid in Cleveland, and the runner up will get three nights all expenses paid in Cleveland.”
The prize is not exactly coveted.
Please, Mr. President, please visit the 9th, 5th and 2nd Virginia Districts.
43 to 53 – healthcare Ras.
I think its largely a weekend #.
He is down to 45 to 54 in today’s survey too.
He will crater once the Weekend results are fully gone.
I do not think he could sell watermelons at the side of the raod.
Dan Rather – liberal icon.
Uh uh David. We in PA have first dibs on Obama in CD 3, 4, 10, 11 and 12.
You will have to wait your turn.
Can someone explain whether Rasmussen uses the same weekend sample that he uses for presidential job approval in his health care polling? I have always thought it odd that he would use the weekend sample that typically skews more Obama friendly when doing the health care polling. Why not poll on health care during the week when the sample doesn’t skew pro-Obama?
I hear you..great point MD.
MD, you telling me that you all may be able to pickup 5 seats in PA?
This national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 13-14, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see methodology).
Sharon, this is the h/c result. Anyway nothing has mpved in the last several months…
Whoops,meant stephen.
The E.R. Myth [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Robert Samuelson:
The uninsured, it’s said, use emergency rooms for primary care. That’s expensive and ineffective. Once they’re insured, they’ll have regular doctors. Care will improve; costs will decline. Everyone wins. Great argument. Unfortunately, it’s untrue.
A study by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation found that the insured accounted for 83 percent of emergency-room visits, reflecting their share of the population. After Massachusetts adopted universal insurance, emergency-room use remained higher than the national average, an Urban Institute study found. More than two-fifths of visits represented non-emergencies. Of those, a majority of adult respondents to a survey said it was “more convenient” to go to the emergency room or they couldn’t “get [a doctor's] appointment as soon as needed.” If universal coverage makes appointments harder to get, emergency-room use may increase.
Samuelson goes on to question whether extending health insurance to the uninsured would really do much to improve their health. I share his skepticism, but it’s worth pointing out that a desire to improve health outcomes isn’t the only reason to wish more people had insurance: Lack of health insurance creates a lot of financial anxiety for a lot of people. That’s a good reason for reforms that would make insurance more affordable even if those reforms would not do much to improve health.
So, ER care will likdly rise further under Obumblercare.
My Congressmen voted yes last time, but supposedly he is undecided now leaning no and the Obama camp is working on him. In any event. Somehow I do not think it would be in the Dem’s interest to have Mr. Obama visit my district, but hey.
Its funny that “The Hill” website is cheering the idea that Scott Murphy (NY-20) is open to voting Yes. He voted Yes last Nov and is “open” to the idea.
such cheerleading. I say don’t be fooled by the vapor bill from last night which was really a rehash of the Pelosi/Reid bill. Here is where we are right now:
1. No reconciliation bill (the way to actually be reconciled) is released.
2. No agreement on the reconciliation bill has been announced.
3. No CBO score
4. No letter from senators promising to pass reconciliation has been written or signed.
So in my opinion no movement has occured
If they are working on him, so should you and everyone of your friends. Remind him of the reception Ben Nelson got in Nebraska after passing the Senate bill. Doesnt he want to come back to Ohio and his friends and family?
David,
Yes, that is what I am saying. I think our possibles are as follows in order from what I think it most likely to least likely:
3
11
12
7
4
10
8
If the GOP is going to take the House, I think we must have at least 4 of these. I would feel a lot better with 5 but Mary Beth Buchanan in 4 is campaigning like a rookie which is allowing Altmire to make noise that he is going to vote yes. He must be extremely confident that he can continue to manipulate her into tantrums.
Heh, to think the House can trust the Senate to pass a fix bill if they pass the Senate bill as is. Not going to happen, the GOP is just going to shut everything down until November. A Reid promise from the Senate is about as worthless as a sheet of used toilet paper. Can’t wait for the GOP to cut up the recon bill that comes out of committee. This is going to be fun today. The bishops came out against Obamacare yesterday. National Right To Life is likely to really bring the heat against pro-life Democratic congressmen today. Those switchboards in Washington might short circuit from all the callls against Obamacare in the next two weeks.
Kind of a funny threat from Obama. If you don’t vote for my health care bill, I’ll come out and campaign for you in your district?? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
It doesn’t matter if the GOP messes up the reconciliation bill because at that point the Senate bill will be LAW.
Brandon,
Yep – if the D’s go forward with Slaughter.
Friends,
Wait until you see the generic ballot. Oh, why not.
Rep: 44.96%
Dem: 35.10%
Wait until you see the weekly totals. Oh, why not.
Strongly Approve: 25.65%
Somewhat Approve: 19.25%
Somewhat Disappr: 11.74%
Strongly Disappr: 42.34%
Approval index: -16.69%
Men Approval: 41.27%
Women approv: 48.12%
Such a strong display of leadership by our President.
Frank
Happy birthday to Justice Ginsburg (77).
I wonder if she and Scalia exchanged gifts (b-days 4 days apart).
This clearly highlights how delusional Obama is. He really truly thinks his visits help in marginal races. If you can stomach it, George Packer’s piece in the recent New Yorker is interesting on this. Yes, the piece’s thesis is mostly that Obama is unpopular because Americans are too stupid to recognize his greatness, but you also get a sense of the hero worship that goes on in Obama’s inner circle. They really do think this guy is a Political Midas.
Also, this is a ridiculously empty threat. If you vote NO, and you’re in a district where an Obama visit might help you in November, and you’re in a tight race, and you’re begging Obama to come out, Obama’s going to say “No. I’d rather the seat went to a Republican!” Um, no way.
+10 R? ouch.
Brandon, totally agree. And that’s why if the House passes the Senate bill and banks on promises from the Senate, they are the dumbest politicians on the face of the earth.
Take a look at this poll over at Redstate:
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/03/15/swing-districts-oppose-health-care-deform/
Seven in 10 would vote against a House member who votes for the Senate health-care bill with its special interest provisions. That includes 45% of self-identified Democrats, 72% of independents and 88% of Republicans. Three in four disagree that the federal government should mandate that everyone buy a government-approved insurance plan (64% strongly so), and 81% say any reform should focus first on reducing costs. Three quarters agree that Americans have the right to choose not to participate in any health-care system or plan without a penalty or fine
45% of Democrats??? Whoa. Can the warning bells get any louder? Well, the GOP would likely have a 35 seat pickup there alone if the Dems try to ram this through.
generic ballot -10. Double figures? Well, that’n never happened before. If things stay anywhere close to that on election day. Democrats will lose half of Cook’s likely Democratic districts, 90% of his lean Democratic districts, and all the tossups.
Bloodbath.
Fank, whats Obama’s approval/disapproval this morning with whites.
My guess is somewhere around 38/60.
35 seats? Probably in the Eastern time zone alone. There is a very large price to pay for telling the American taxpayers to sit down and shut up.
Shouldnt someone write the companion book to “Whats the Matter with Kansas” as being “Whats the matter with Women”? Suffice it to say Zero is being propped up by women, despite having absolutely nothing of accomplishment on his resume. Unreal. Which Constitutional amendment gave woment the right to vote? The 23rd? Seems like a lot of them are giving strong evidence of lack of a thought process in their support.
I hear that acorn is changing their name and recharging for the mids.
Gary, the poll was comprised of calls to people in 35 swing districts. Sorry, should have mentioned that. Hey, by the way, it looks like Obama is suddenly open for special deals again similar to the Cornhusker Kickback, Louisiana Purchase, etc. Umm, his desperation is amping up trying to pass this bill. Keep up the pressure.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jlMpJGn28kqCcgU-aGcYE_ZHW-ywD9EEUDMG0
We can kid around about a “threat or a promise” of a Zero visit, but the way it will/would work is this: Zero isn’t going to Chandler’s district in KY, for example. He’ll have a fundraiser for Chandler (or whomever) in D.C.
Same thing W did in his last 2 years.
GM,
His approval is almost down by double digits since his ascendancy to the throne.
As I said yesterday, I have the NO vote at 216.
start at 215 from November.
take away Massa, Altmire, Gordon, and Matheson (says he is undecided)…
add Cao, STupak, Lipinski, Donnelly, Driehaus, and COstello.
I think that there may be around 5 or so NO votes in my tally that may have indicated publically that they are undecided. OTOH, there are a few YES votes out there that may come to vote NO (like dahlkemper, Ellsworth, etc).
My point is that I think NO may very well be very close to victory.
I am not sure we will know that it has reached victory until a vote is held or the bill is pulled. I am not sure that many more REps will be publically announcing their opposition.
Or they may all be sandbagging and will all vote YES like they did in November.
Women think emotionally. They respond mostly to the bleeding heart stories that Democrats tend to lead with. Also, single moms are mostly low income and want the government to tax and send them benefits.
ooops… also take away Baird.
mnw – how did that work for R’s in 06 and 08?
Money is NOT the only factor in mids.
Our money situation is the worst I can ever remember. In this cycle that’s pathetic.
Phil,
37/63
Frank
21. Murphy voted NO last time ..
You guys will like this from some loon on another site:
Tell ya what: you can call it whatever you want to, okay? But let’s agree that when the citizens of a country give some of their hard-earned money to a governing entity that then is free to spend that money on supporting the infrastructure that keeps that society going, then when you choose to accept some of those things (roads; bridges; education) and demonize others (Welfare; Health Care) by pretending that one is part of Your System Here and the other is “Socialism” and therefore automatically bad, you are being dishonest and disingenuous.
That clear it up at all?
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Fascism is government control mixed with private ownership.
——————————————————————————–
You mean like… The FDA allowing the Pharmaceutical Corporations to write the Drug Laws? The FCC allowing the Telecommunications Corporations to write Broadcasting regulations? The SEC allowing the Banks and Stock Brokerages to write the financial regs?
That kind of fascism?
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A pure socialistic system can never succeed.
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Agreed. That’s why every country that actually works has a mix of using citizens money to support infrastructure along with some other system. Like the United States. So what’s the problem?
I thought of a fabulous political trivia question, if I do say so myself.
Memory ONLY, pls. No google/wiki!
What makes Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA) unique among all congress members, past present & future? She’s the only one there will ever be.
This is key, and why I think this nonsense does not pass. From Phoenix article this cut and paste:
A congressman can buy himself a little grace if he had previously voted for health-care reform but now votes against it. Forty-nine percent of voters will feel more supportive of that member if he does so, 40% less supportive. More dramatically, 58% of voters say they will be more supportive of their congressman’s re-election if he votes against the bill a second time. However, for those members who voted against it in November and vote yes this time, 61% of voters say they will be less likely to support their re-election.
Over a third of respondents say they will actively work against a candidate who votes the wrong way or for the candidate who votes the right way. Perhaps that’s because dramatic pluralities of both sexes—young people, seniors and independents, regardless of whether John McCain or Barack Obama carried the district in 2008—say that if the legislation doesn’t pass they will be relieved.
There are two noeworthy things about Congresswoman Speier in her political carer, Mnw. Which are you referring to?
Whip Count Update:
The Hill
210-221
Jay Cost
210-221
FireDogLake
209-222
I assigned some weights/probabilities to the undecideds to get the above numbers. For example, for The Hill, I assumed we get 80% of prior nos who are undecided and 0% or prior yeses who are undecided.
My whip count: Who cares? It’s not passing. Al unofficial whip counts are pointless.
Wes
I only know of one. Bang.
Good morning, folks. There are three possible scenarios to Obamacare:
1. No vote taken, the bills disappear into a bureuacratic morass.
2. It passes with 1 or 2 votes to spare.
3. It fails with less than 200 yes votes.
My best estimate is that it fails with less than 200 yes votes. It will appear close as the vote progresses, but then as it becomes apparent that the vote will fail, a fairly significant number of very soft yes voters will switch to no. Soft yes voters will not want to be on the wrong side of the vote for a hugely unpopular bill which fails to pass.
Ryan’s death?
Colorado Primaries(PPP)
Dem Senate
Bennet: 40%
Romanoff: 34%
GOP Senate
Norton: 34%
Buck: 17%
Wiens: 7%
GOP Governor
McInnis: 58%
Maes: 8%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/demtoplines.pdf
Tinareports has it down to 39,6 percent for passage.
I have it at 10 short.
Please bring slaughter on, so that the drats can be slaughtered in nov.
Brandon
thanks for the poll and it looks about right.
Bennett is in deep trouble while Norton is coasting
Marv
Yes. A fascinating story. I read a couple of books about Jonestown. Here’s what I learned about Speier.
Future Rep. Speier was a member of Rep. Leo Ryan’s in 1978. She was part of the Congressional Delegation that went to Guyana to investigate whether or not any Jonestown residents were being held there involuntarily.
When the gunmen opened fire at the tiny landing strip, Rep. Ryan & several others were murdered, & Speier was seriously wounded. After shooting at the delegation from a distance, the gunmen then walked up to the victims & kicked them, i.e., to determine if anybody was stll alive. The gunmen then used shotguns to finish off survivors.
Speier played dead, & she was so bloody the gunmen apparently believed her to be dead.
Speier still carries bullet fragments that were never removed. (I”ve always been curious if she sets off metal detectors.)
She said she executed a will right before going down to Jonestown, without feeling herself in any particular danger– just a coincidence.
Ryan could’ve requested a Guyanese police escort, and gotten one easily, but he made no such request. No-one sensed the danger.
RE: Whip Counts
If Pelosi really IS at 210, she’ll get the other 6. If it’s that close, it passes.
OHIOBOY
Bug that congressman! Please.
That is the more noteworthy thing about Speier, Mnw. The other is that she’s the first woman in the California Legislature to give birth to a child while serving.
One scenario for Obama on HC, if it doesn’t pass this week is —-> he leaves for his “vacation,” comes back and simply dismisses HC as something to do “later.” He then goes on to heroically demand that the congress do the “people’s work” focusing on job formation and improving the ailing economy.
By having his vacation posing as a buffer from him and his HC plan, he can do a snappy turn to something more relished by the people, and act as if this renewed attention to the people’s business was all his idea!
Glenn Nye (D-VA) is looking to stay as a no.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rep-nye-virginia-looks-no
The dam is starting to break.