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KY: Paul, Mongiardo Continue To Lead Primary Races

Some polling in the late night from Research 2000, who were paid by someone other than the leftists at Daily Kos for this latest poll for the US Senate primaries in Kentucky.

KENTUCKY – GOP PRIMARY (Research 2000)
Rand Paul 44%
Trey Grayson 32%
John Stephenson 3%
Gurley Martin 3%
Jon Scribner 1%

US SENATE – KENTUCKY – DEM PRIMARY (Research 2000)
Dan Mongiardo 39%
Jack Conway 32%
Darlene Price 6%
James Buckmaster 4%
Maurice Sweeney 2%

This poll was done May 2-4 among 500 likely voters in each party. The primary election for this race is May 18th.

Tomorrow, we go overseas for the UK elections….

Posted by Dave at 10:05 pm
Filed under: 2010 Senate - KY | Comments (28)

28 Responses to “KY: Paul, Mongiardo Continue To Lead Primary Races”

  1. Waingro says:

    1st!

  2. Waingro says:

    First!

  3. addisonst says:

    Hullo

  4. Wes says:

    Argh…The GOP has decided to comit suicide in 2016 with Rand Paul.

  5. Wes says:

    How goes it, Ad?

  6. addisonst says:

    Waiting to meet a yum in the vodka business for a drink. First date.

  7. Wes says:

    Well, you’re a bit more sober than I am. Bombay Sapphire is smooth going down but feels like a ton of bricks when it hits the stomach.

  8. Bunu says:

    Rand Paul statement on Arizona immigration law.

    Much has been made of the recent Arizona law. Let me start by saying
    I support local solutions to illegal immigration as protected by the 10th amendment. Clearly, state and local government believe they must take these matters into their own hands, because of the federal government failure, and I support their right to do so.
    I support laws that allow immigration status to be checked as a secondary issue, meaning, if a person has been stopped for some other valid reason. I support the full enforcement of federal immigration laws, be it by federal or state law enforcement.
    Finally, as a United States Senator, I will vote for any bill that strengthens border security, including the construction of a physical or electronic fence.

  9. Tommy_Boy says:

    Nate Silver says it’s been a “weird year” for polling and that he doesn’t know who to trust, LOL

  10. GF says:

    Mmmm…vodka. Time for a French Martini to celebrate Cinco de Quatro…

  11. Victrc says:

    Wes or whomever…quick question….why are people saying that BJG is going nuts over Christie and the SC….do they have a problem with Christie??

  12. Wes says:

    I haven’t been to BJG since last year, Vic, but when I was still posting there right before the elections last November, a number of the posters were making fun of Christie’s weight, calling him a RINO, and actively hoping he would lose to Corzine. Whether that’s still the case I don’t know, nor do I care to know. It was enough for me to flame out the site here on the HHR and pledge never to even consider returning.

  13. Jan says:

    Victrc

    There are those at BJG who considered Christie to be a RINO. However, Christie is obviously trying to make common sense strides in NJ, proving these people’s judgment to be inaccurate

    But, people don’t like to be “wrong” in their assumptions or conclusions. So, some here are thinking that those BJGers, who dissed Christie, might be sweating his good actions, which in turn will make them look silly, and maybe even appear a tad over-reactionary.

  14. Jan says:

    Sorry Wes, I sort of answered for you. I didn’t think you were still on. The people on the other site still come over here, and saw your comment, which in turn provoked defensive responses.

  15. Wes says:

    No problem, Jan. You imply the BJGers felt the need to make defensive posts about what I said here. That speaks volumes. It’s quite similar to the scene in Hamlet when two characters are looking at a cloud and trying to determine what it most resembles. The judgement on the object viewed speaks much more about the observer than about the thing observed:

    Hamlet: Do you see yonder cloud that’s almost in shape of a camel?
    Polonius: By th’ Mass, and ’tis like a camel, indeed.
    Hamlet: Methinks it is like a weasel.
    Polonius: It is backed like a weasel.
    Hamlet: Or like a whale.
    Polonius: Very like a whale.

    For the record, Jan, you, whom I greatly admire as an intelligent poster, are not among those I referred to in my response to VictrC. You have always been one whose opinions I thought were intelligent and well reasoned.

  16. VictrC says:

    Egad! I am sorry I brought it up, I was just wondering because of the posts the previous two days about Christie’s handling of the SC situation.

    I have to say that I really do respect many of the posters here on HHR, but I also do at BJG. They have always treated me well and with a certain amount of decorum, even when they disagree with something I say. The same goes here. When people here disagree with me, they sually state their reasons, and for the most part they are cohesive arguments. A number of people here understand that we will all have varying degrees of Conservatism and respect where we all stand in the spectrum.

    I appreciate both sites, and in general the posters here and there.

  17. VictrC says:

    Egad! I am sorry I brought it up, I was just wondering because of the posts the previous two days about Christie’s handling of the SC situation.

    I have to say that I really do respect many of the posters here on HHR, but I also do at BJG. They have always treated me well and with a certain amount of decorum, even when they disagree with something I say. The same goes here. When people here disagree with me, they sually state their reasons, and for the most part they are cohesive arguments. A number of people here understand that we will all have varying degrees of Conservatism and respect where we all stand in the spectrum.

    I appreciate both sites, and in general the posters here and there.

  18. VictrC says:

    Wow, not really many people commenting tonight…

  19. Polaris says:

    #9 Translation: The polls that I weight the most in my regression analysis are showing a democratic disaster that I will not accept therefore it has to be a “weird year” in polling.

    -Polaris

  20. Victrc says:

    Polaris…Lol…I really can’t stand Nate silver…also do you know in colleges they are teaching fivethirtyeight.com as the ultimate election and polling site…it’s despicable

  21. Victrc says:

    In fact he’s projecting 362 conservative seats (or a good majority) 146 labour and 110 lib deems… Let’s see how he does

  22. Victrc says:

    Wait I’m wrong that was one of his 17 models!!! He projects 312…204…103. As noted above. So a small majority and no hung parliament

  23. Victrc says:

    My lord. I hadn’t been there in a long time but they live in fantasy land there. Ellsworth is a good bet to beat Coats becAuse people in Indiana are sick of him??? Crist is a lock in Florida because he will draw I dependents who are turned off to GOP politics who are beholden to the corporations?? Seriously? Do these people live on planet earth?

  24. avodah says:

    Wes wrote: “Argh…The GOP has decided to comit suicide in 2016 with Rand Paul.”

    Oh, I don’t know about that. Apparently, Paul is drawing a lot of people – there must be something about him that really awakes interest in voters who would otherwise be sleeping at this time in KY, or we would not be seeing this phenomenon.

    Of course, he has name recognition through his father. And Mongiardo will make is a rough race for the guy.

    That being said, although I am moving KY back into the battleground column for 2010 SEN for now, it is still advantage red.

    And with respect to my republican friends, of whom I have many, apparently the GOP rank and file in KY is not so hot on a coronation. They are sour at Bunning and apparently happy to see him go – at least the ones voting for Grayson. One thing we call all agree on is that no one really expected Paul to take off as he has when he first started.

    Whether Paul is political suicide for the GOP in 2016 remains to be seen. First, he may, if elected, attract a lot of democrats over 6 years since his views don’t reflect the GOP mainstream. Second, 2016 will be a presidential election year and most likely an open election after Obama serves his second term. Statistics tell me that the chances that Obama will be re-elected, even under hard circumstances, are very good. Even GOP statisticians will tell you this. But at the same time, it paves the way for a GOP wave in 2016 to the White House, and if that wave were to come, then KY would certainly be within it. In that case, Paul would be relatively safe in KY.

  25. Polaris says:

    #20 I’m not suprised. I am all too familiar with what passes for political discourse (and Political Science) these days on Campus. Either you go along or you can face some dire professional consequences both as a student and a faculty member. The only way to “get away” with being a ‘conservative nut-job’ even in the hard sciences these days is to be tenured…but heaven help you if you don’t toe the Dem party line until you are!

    -Polaris

  26. Polaris says:

    #24 Watch Obama’s Job Approval. As long as it stays underwater, he won’t get reelected (at least not in a fair election). Pretty much any credible statistician and political scientist will tell you the same.

    -Polaris

  27. Diogenes says:

    All expectations about Obama winning reelection are based on simple econometric models.

    Most models rightly assume that the trough of job losses happened relatively early in Obama’s term (approximately fall of last year). Given historic economic recovery trends, Obama should be set for re-election in 2012.

    However, the recovery has not been historical at all and we may very well see the very first double-dip recession in our nation’s history if the greek contagion spreads.

    Even if it does not, we will have an anemic recovery. Household incomes has not recovered and the recovery is girded half by temporary government spending which is more or less expiring. The stimulus package which kept most states afloat for another year is winding back and now states simply have to face the hard decisions the stimulus put off.

    All signs point to government action simply delaying the economic pain that was necessary to re-adjust the economy.

    The GDP numbers themselves speak this. from 5.2% to 3.2% within a quarter. This is not a sustained recovery as of yet with GDP growth being slower this quarter. In fact, with cash for clunkers and the housing credit expiring, one could say that GDP growth would have been 1-2% without them and that the policies themselves merely shifted spending from the future to the present.

    The IMF itself predicts sub 3.0% growth for the US over the next 2 years. 3% growth would indicate a replacement rate for jobs. That is, unemployment would actually increase due to all the new workers entering the economy.

    Most reasonable projections predict 8% unemployment in 2012. In fact, 8% is more or less the best we can expect. No president has been re-elected with those kinds of numbers in the last half century except for reagan and that was in a year where the economy was growing at 6% and adding several hundred thousand jobs a month.

    We have had 2 one-term presidents in recent memory. They all looked set to win second terms from early polling and historical trends.

    In the end, they were torn down by the economy. Obama’s terrible handling of the economy is extremely likely to do him in yet.

  28. Polaris says:

    #27 Indeed and all of it factors into the JA number.

    If people see their lives getting better by 2012, then Obama’s JA will improve and he will get reelected.

    If things stay the same (by perception) or get worse (and I think there is about a 50-50 chance we’re looking at a double-dip. The Libor rate response to the Greek Crisis and lack of any recovery or job growth in the private sector coupled with a doubling of the money supply worry me…a lot), then Obama will not be.

    Frankly it doesn’t matter much who the GOP runs.

    -Polaris