Lunch Time Polls (NH, AL, AZ, FL)
The first poll of the day from Public Policy Polling shows that Bill Binnie would be the strongest candidate to go up against Paul Hodes in the state of New Hampshire.
US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP)
Kelly Ayotte (R) 45%
Paul Hodes (D) 42%Bill Binnie (R) 46%
Paul Hodes (D) 41%Paul Hodes (D) 43%
Jim Bender (R) 42%Paul Hodes (D) 43%
Ovide Lamontagne (R) 38%
This poll was done July 23-25 among 900 registered voters. From Scott Rasmussen, we have a blowout in Alabama and a lot of indecision in Arizona.
US SENATE – ARIZONA – DEM PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Rodney Glassman 15%
Cathy Eden 11%
Randy Parraz 10%
John Dougherty 7%US SENATE – ALABAMA (Rasmussen)
Richard Shelby (R-inc) 59%
William Barnes (D) 29%
The AZ poll was done July 21st among 331 likely Democratic primary voters. The AL poll was done July 22nd among 500 likely voters. An internal poll done by McLaughlin and Associates for Bill McCollum shows him trailing Rick Scott by 5% in the Republican primary.
GOVERNOR – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (McLaughlin)
Rick Scott 37%
Bill McCollum 32%
I could not find dates for this poll anywhere. That’s all for now…still waiting on a California poll from Public Policy Polling, Colorado US Senate poll from Scott Rasmussen which is already late according to his email today, and an Oregon gubernatorial poll from Scott Rasmussen later today….
Pick Ayotte, New Hampshire. Penn State and Villanova Alumni will flood her campaign with money.
ROFL!!! Someone here posted yesterday that PPP would show Hodes within 3 of Ayotte. That person deserves a beer!
Hugh Hewitt makes me a feel a whole lot better about the DISCLOSE Act vote today. I hope he’s right and should be. Any GOP Senator who would vote yea just to bring this bill up for debate would be committing political suicide.
http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/086be6ab-465c-4886-b3ed-147847410255
Once again, Jensen is trying to create a trend.
Scott has a real chance of winning.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Berwick_s-appointment-hurts-special-needs-patients-1003522-99201524.html#ixzz0utUcqEeF
for anyone with children with special needs- i assume most knew this already
I see that JulStol is having another political temper tantrum. I believe that Castle has never lost a statewide race in Delaware. Never. However, the idealogue wants to purge the GOP of people who actually win elections because they may not be 125% conservative. Jul would probably have worked against Reagan because he was not (insert reason here).
Lieberman is not going to make the vote for Disclose, so given that not a single Republican has gone public with support for this nightmare, and they now need at least two Republicans I think the vote does not even happen. Or its all about show and trying to do the old “okie doke” on voters, by claiming the Republicans are the party of NO. We should tell voters we are the party of “Hell NO” on this kind of crap.
Dave,
That McLaughlin poll in Florida is an internal poll, suggesting a Scott has an overwhelming lead at this point.
From the last thread:
Just so I have it straight. The rule is that conservative must always yield the right of way to the moderate.
All of us conservatives need to come to grips with that. Gosh, it never seems to work the other way around.
O’Donnell probably won’t win the primary against Castle but she is 10 times better than him.
Castle proudly voted yes on Cap and Trade. Remember that when he sells us out next year. I have seen some people claim he would be a no. That is 100% false.
Not only did he vote yes but he defended his vote in an infamous town hall. Go ahead, rationalize that away.
MD, Castle will be irrelevant with more GOP pick-ups besides him that will be far more conservative then he is after November.
I won’t support a conservative who has 0% chance of winning but I will support the conservative who can win.
O’Donnell would win in a general. Having said that Castle will prevail in the primary. At least, I am 95% sure of that.
Obama Weakness in Gallup: 45(-1)/48(+1)
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Phoenix,
I take a bow for the Ayotte prediction….
The University of New Hampshire also conducted a poll this weekend of the Senate race. It should be interesting to see what they found.
MD,
Where are you today?
Did Dewine lose? Did Talent lose? How about the guy in Oregon?
In PA, Weldon, English and Fitspatrick all lost. None of them is conservative and all of their voting records were moderate. They were also champions of big spending. How could they lose?
Calgary Marv.
Bitter,
Jul is a good kid and he has valid personal reasons as to why principles are important to him.
DISCLOSE Act is dead.
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/07/27/collins-a-no-lieberman-a-miss-on-disclose-vote/
In comments on the Hot Air thread and via twitter feeds, Snowe is a no vote as well. All 41 GOP Senators are against it and Lieberman is attending a funeral. Enjoy getting your butt kicked in fundraising Dems.
MD says:
July 27, 2010 at 1:04 pm
From the last thread:
Just so I have it straight. The rule is that conservative must always yield the right of way to the moderate.
———————
In a state where only a moderate probably has a shot in hell at actually winning? Yes.
Someone who supports what I want 100% of the time is useless to me if he or she isn’t in office.
Say Castle has a 90% shot at winning if nominated. Say he supports our side 55% of the time as a senator. His utility to me is .9*.55 = .495
Say O’Donnell would support our side 95% of the time, but she only has a 10% shot at winning if nominated. Her utility to me is .95 * .1 = .095.
To get her to Castle’s number, you’d have to have her with over a 50% shot at winning the general, and I just don’t see that happening.
Hence, I support Castle, and conservatives should too, I would argue.
#16–OK, so moderates don’t *always* win. But did I miss Senator Al Salvi’s retirement or something, because as far as I see, IL has two liberal Dem senators now?
Race of the Day- Alaska Governor:
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/07/alaska-governor-race.html
Ok, OK, OK. I think I get it now.
So I should overlook social issues. OK
I should overlook those who basically vote for increased government in my life.
I should overlook those who vote if favor of a climate bill which is nothing more than a scam to redistribute wealth.
Gosh, do I have any principles left?
Oh yea, lower taxes. That is until the rinos sell us out on a VAT next year. Then, I will just have to understans again!!
John Thune is running for President. The DISCLOSE Act goes down in flames. It’s a good day.
FYI: O’Donnell led Coons in the last Rasmussen poll.
The rinos are 100% responsible for allowing the Marxists to.shape the agenda. I have been very quiet on this issue for a long time but the behavior, arrogance and stupidity of the rinos over the last couple of weeks has been appalling.
We have compromised enough.
I think all some of us are saying is that sometimes you have to vote strategically. I have no problem if people vote expressively all the time; that’s your prerogative.
But expect me to speak up when a group of activists works to sabotage my party’s chances at a majority, all in the name of ideological purity. The Objectivist Party is probably pretty ideologically pure. But I’d rather be in a party that actually has seats and power, rather than one that is impotent but has a clean conscience, because at least it doesn’t “sell out.”
Of course, all those Objectivists will be shipped off to reeducation camps to listen to Janeane Garofalo read from “The Audacity of Hope” if we lose in 2010, anyways.
TB,
You just ignore that!!!! It doesn’t fit the rino meme.
Remember, the rinos here believe that Angle is running a disasterous campaign. Thank God they have MSNBC for their talking points.
We compromise time after time yet it is never enough. Never.
3rd Party Congressional Candidate in PA 15 found associating himself with anti semitic group. I shall now vote for RINO Dent. Damn.
MD – Elections are solely about winning. I would prefer that conservatives win but I need Republicans to win. On social issues, if given a choice between lower taxes and gay marriage, I only care about the taxes (unless gay marriage becomes mandatory and I have to marry a guy).
As a Delawarean I must argue with the assertion that Christine O’Donnell could win. She has run again and again. When she couldn’t get the R nomination she just ran as an independent. Always got very, very little. That will not change this year. With each repeat performance she grows less credible. I just cannot see it. I am a conservative person but Castle is the best we can get in this Biden-run Democrat loving state. Trust me. Please.
What is the point of having a majority if all we are going to do is advance the Marxist agenda, be only slightly less Marxist than them and then be blamed for everything anyway?
Look at the Bush and R congress. Compromising caused the social cons to stay at home.
All the attacks by RINOS here on Angle have gotten me to the point where I am ready top fight back.
PPP – Boxer 49% Fiorina 40%
California just can’t get enough of Babs!
Bitter – you haven’t been reading my posts. It is NOT just social issues. They sell us out on everything else and we are supposed to understand.
I don’t give a fig about gay marriage. Seriously. I just don’t think they should be included in the Civil Rights legislation. Nice try at the straw man.
I don’t blame Bitterlaw for feeling the way he does. In his area of the state, principles are a luxury most Rs can’t afford.
God, someone here predicted that exact total from PPP.
Oh, that’s right. I am not allowed to hold Jensen accountable for any of his polls in July. Another RINO meme.
If that California poll is right, the state has no hope.
What a joke of a state.
Has anyone who thinks O’Donnell can beat Coons actually paid attention to her electoral history? She ran a lunati campaign in 2008 focused strictly on negativism and ridiculous theatrics and barely topped 1/3 of the vote. This year, her website has NOT ONE positive thing to say about anything. It’s basically all “Mike Castle is Evil Incarnate. Vote for me.” That’s not a winning strategy. Jason on the thread below pointed out all the financial prolems she has. She has little connection to Delaware and has barely campaigned. In the First State, retail politics is a premium. The reason Biden, Roth, Castle, and Carper were and have been such successful politicians is that they barnstorm the state. O’Donnell thinks getting on the radio and telling people how evil Mike Castle is is enough to get her a win. It’s not going to happen. What’s worse is that in the unlikely scenario she upset Castle in the primary, she’d be facing a hardworking Dem with a lot of money who would beat ANY Republican other than Castle. You guys who delude yourselves into thinking O’Donnell can win this thing though apparently would prefer another Senator in the Biden-Carper-Kaufman mold to someone who will vote your way at least half the time. Well, if Dems hold Congress and ram through even more idiocy since they survived the worst possible political conditions, then you have no one but yourselves to blame. You also have to live with it. I don’t since I’ll be sitting on a beach in Nassau guzzling maritnis and beers while I watch the US burn.
So Bitter, you care about taxes? What do you think the fin reform bill will do? I guess you won’t consider the extra 200 to 300 dollars of bank fees a tax. I guess all the added fees coming from Cap and Trade (a RINO favorite) will notbe considered to be a tax either.
Then, next year you can defend RINO support of a VAT. It’s where they live!
MD,
You’re starting to sound like me. The local R committee has caused some of us to declare war on Moderates/Rinos. Fiscal issues are ok to squish on. NOT fiscal issues
Hey, Tommy J, can you give us some idea of what that race looks like with an LV screen?
Thune will go nowhere. Establishment and DC insiders are not winning in the current GOP climate. If anyone of them does have a prayer it’s Jeb but with Thune’s record on TARP and others coming up, he’s going nowhere.
I do love watching the beltway trying to deflect the inevitable though.
I am always asked to compromise. I have been hearing that for years. Then, we lost the Congress and elected a MARXIST POTUS.
It had nothing to do with THEM though. That was all on us. What utter crap.
Castle voted for the Bush tax cuts and all the economic portions of the Contract with America and against Obamacare. Yes, let’s make sure the Dems keep that seat so the winner can vote the opposite way on al of those!
Social issues are ok* yikes
TB, you predicted 48-41 for Boxer from PPP. What a load of $@#!!!. Tommy Jensen really wants to be the new KOS pollster
So, MD, are you saying Bush was a RINO since he was the person who set the GOP agenda and was the focal point for the losses that culminated in Obama’s election to the presidency?
#45
Nope, Marc did…
I got Ayotte/Hodes right though…
I would belive that Boxer has a soft 3 to 4 point lead. Jensen is a joke.
Oh whatever Charles. Thune has already acknowledged that his TARP vote was bad and has tried to scrap it. What other issues do you think Thune has? You think Thune is an establishment pick? He has worked his tail off in public service, took out a Senate Majority leader and has I believe a 95-100 ACU rating, pro-life, pro-gun, smaller government conservative. Wes and Phil will have fun jumping all over you…again.
I agree with that, MD. Jensen would have a lot more credibility with me if he used LV screens.
#48 — I agree MD. I think it is a 2-3 point lead for Boxer and Fiorina is holding her fire.
JulStol – Let me remind you that in 2002 I ran as a pro-life, pro-defense, pro-business, low tax conservative in Philadelphia against Chakka Fattah. I received 12% of the vote but I showed the flag. Please do not lecture me on the evils of my part of the state. I went to college in the Lehigh Valley so I know that area, too. While most people are nice and hard-working, that area is not perfect. I remember driving through a KKK rally in Emmaus in the late 1980s so don’t preach to me about the ideal nature of that area.
Also, Allentown has too many New York Giants fans to have any appeal for me.
Yes Wes. Domestically in many ways he was. Now, he wasn’t an outright Marxist because he did lower tax rates but domestically he caved into their agenda and their only response was, “it is not enough”. He allowed them to shape the agenda especially in his 2nd term.
You’re wrong, Phoenix. I personally won’t say a thing to him. I don’t read or acknowledge Charles the Jackoff’s posts. He’s the stupidest person ever to post on the HHR, and I have no desire to take the risk of droping my IQ by reading his idiotic rants.
Well, at least you’re consistent, MD.
If Thune is only 95% conservative, Jul will start a movement to draft somebody who is a true conservative to run against him.*
*I do hope that the wedding planning is going well.
Remember Carly didn’t surge ahead til late in the primary. Not too worried yet
Wes,
You know I have been critical of Bush. I have him ranked around 35. It is a matter of degrees only between us.
I like JulStol, Bitter, but he reminds me too much of the Freepers. No one is conservative enough for him or them. It’s a little like the Libertarian Party. If there’s a candidate who can actually win, then in his eyes, the candidate is clearly doing something wrong.
Jul – it is a PPP poll which means there is NO reason to even take it seriously.
Let’s see SUSA and RAS poll it again.
Cripes Bitter calm down. Unlike you I’ve won an election
Kelly up 48-37 over Dahlkemper?
NRO Campaign Spot
Thanks for correcting me Wes
61 – whoa.
Wes, Tancredo seems to be backing off a little
#62 — YIKES!!! Dahlkamper is going down.
My broader point, MD, was that you seemed to be saying the RINOs were responsible for GOP losses in 2006 and 2008. Well, Bush, Cheney, Hastert, Delay, Frist, and McConnell were the GOP leaders during that time. As the leadership, they would logically be the ones responsible for what happened. Thus, you must consider them RINOs.
MD,
I’m sure with age will come a bit of pragmatism. For now I’m happy to be the idealistic angry young man
That’s good to hear, Jason. How long does Tancredo have before the filing date passes?
if one does a proper conversion of the ppp poll is it fair to state that the boxer carly tussle is w/in the moe?
If the Dahlkemper poll is accurate, then she’s going to take it on the chin in November.
Jason T,
That’s not the Terrance poll is it?
Of course, Phoenix.
I think until the primary on 8/10 Wes.
My man Sean would know
Pitt Post Gazette I think Jul
Wes,
Bush, Frist and McDonnell – yes. Hard to say with Cheney.
Look, I would still vote for the rinos over the Marxists. I am just tired of rinos here running down every conservative candidate with stale talking points stolen from MSNBC.
“O’Donnell probably won’t win the primary against Castle but she is 10 times better than him.”
Who said that???? I said the woman is a deadbeat who will get crushed with allegations shady financial dealings.
Make that Castle is 10 times better than her, plus the fact he can win.
You guys have heard Reid is promising a public-option addition to Obamacare, I’m sure. Angle needs to run with that. Reid is literally writing her campaign commercials for her.
PPP is a complete wack job of a polling firm
trash upon trash–
who steals PPP steals trash
Jason T,
Sweet!
Wait, Tarrance Poll is correct Jul. Still 11 is a big spread
I have nothing against JulStol. I just disagree with the scorched earth tactics against almost all Republicans. If I lived in Alabama or Geoergia, I would expect more conservative candidates. In Pennsylvania, I take who can win.
The problem with social issues is that they are not easily attached to a general liberal/conservative position. For example, there are two available “conservative” positions on abortion. 1 – It should be outlawed because it violates the right to life. OR 2 – It should be allowed because outlawing it gives too much power to the government. Same with the death penalty. What to do with me – I am pro-life on abortion and wish that the death penalty was imposed more often.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot
Are their still any CCPPP Defenders here?
Oh but Wes – she CAN’T attack him. The RINOS have mandated that so we must lay off.
Also, Castle is not a conservative. Not even close. Again, it is always the conservatives who must compromise.
61.Cripes Bitter calm down. Unlike you I’ve won an election
Comment by JulStol — July 27, 2010 @ 2:24 pm
School Board vs. Congress? Yes, I am truly humbled.
I’m not too sure about that poll, Jason. It’s an internal poll. It has a small sample size and a high MOE. I hope it’s accurate, but I’d need to see other polls to back up its conclusions.
Isn’t the PA 3 poll and old poll that was an internal for Kelly?
I do have PA 3 flipping. If it doesn’t, it is a bad harbinger for regaining the house.
Well, MD, I’ll make a deal with you on the Castle race. Show me a more conservative candidate than Castle not saddled with O’Donnell’s lackluster campaign skills and sky-high baggage, and I’ll support him/her. Otherwise, it looks as if Castle is the man.
MD, I think you are making a case where there isn’t one. My problems with candidates like Angle and O’Donnell and Hayworth aren’t because they are more conservative than their opponents, I really think either they can’t win or their opponents are more qualified.
I supported Perry against Hutchinson for example. Show me a better qualified conservative candidate that can win on the R side and I will support him or her in a nanosecond.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/colorado/election_2010_colorado_senate
I’ve jumped fully on the Angle campaign bandwagon by the way, MD, even though I expressed concerns about her during the primary. As you know, I am not and have never claimed to be a conservative. I still support Angle though, and as I’ve noted a number of times on here, John Thune is my preferred GOP candidate for President. I think I’ve proved my willingness to meet conservatives to work toward common ends.
Castle will win. What more can I say? Don’t expect me to be a fan.
Kurtz new book coming out
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWQyNjQ5NDJjZjIwOGFmMzJkNjA4N2UyNTk3OWU0Mjg=
Bitter,
You lost your school board race too.
Dear Phoenix,
Thune may or may not be a good candidate. His problem is the vibe in the GOP is anti-DC/Insider. Thune for his voting record and duration in DC, qualifies. The Establishment R’s like Beltway Boy, are the ones going to back him as being the one that change everything because he was there the whole time.
That’s how their logic works.
Thune getting in means, that Mittens is likely done as PREZ candidate and will be shifted over to a candidate for RNC chair to replace Steele.
It also means that the Beltway crowd is watching the polling and not liking the trend emerging from Alaska as it means the end of their grip on power.
Hence we have Wes the Beltway Fraud who lacks any degree of common sense attempting to use his political knowledge and history that he gained from Googgling five minutes earlier, to try and impress people. That’s why he keeps trying to say Palin isn’t running even though anyone with a lick of Common sense, knows she is.
Going forward the GOP candidates will be Ron Paul (he’s gonna run til he physically can’t anymore), Establishment/moderate candidate (Thune, Daniels, or Jeb most likely), designated Stalking Horse and Palin.
Of those we know who the left fears and who the Trent Lotts of the world fear. they’ve made it abundantly clear.
95 – that hurts Jul and is NOT nice.
Bitter is a good guy. I bet he lives no more than 5 miles from me.
This is the point where we start comparing credentials. Ay Dios Mio.
I still call bs on the Tarrance poll but Kelly should win
Tom Jensen is so full of shit .If you look into the sample of the poll unsurprisingly you find a more Democrat electorate…more then in 2008. In unfucking believeable…Jensen’s sample hows a turnout model of 35D-29R-36I, but Obama won just 48-45 with this sample. That doesn’t jibe with the 2008 exit poll, which was 29D-27R-45I, and with that Obama won 54-45.
Also this smacks of a push poll with the Palin question..Just
informing the voters that Ayotte has been endorsed by Palin is enough to change some voters’ minds. And for PPP to spend time informing voters of Palin’s endorsements seems like an investment in a Democratic victory.
By 20 votes, Jul. I lost to people who have lived in this town for 20 plus years who ran before. That is the nature of local races. By the way, 2 of the people I ran with are the most conservative people I know (more conservative than me). They also lost.
Tim,
That is a pretty big admission on your part.
BTW – I called Sherrod. We had a nice talk.
You’re a Dem, Tim. For you to make an assessment of a Dem-friendly poll speaks volumes.
#100 Tim,
What does a 29D-27R-44I 2010 turnout model do for Fiorina? (Using PPP’s preference numbers)
Wes,
Bitter’s credentials are far better than mine. I’ll admit that in a heartbeat.
Bitter,
Radnor township is full of guilt ridden limosine liberals. I know many of them personally.
Marv – I think Tim was referring to NH.
I could give some of my friends here a huge list of conservative republicans that moderate & liberal GOP people supported while their 1st preference (a more moderate candidate was not chosen)
Reagan-Bush41-Bush43- DAmato-Santorum-Bob Taft-Jesse Helms-Strom Thurmond-Bob Corker-John Ashcroft and so forth.
The great untruth is that somehow conservatives-who get the GOP nomination-somehow are betrayed by moderate or liberal republicans in GE–Mercy is that not true. 90% of the time moderate/liberal GOP types stick together.
I hope Wes can back me up on this for NC–Jesse Helms was not your typical Carolina republican. He was from Eastern NC and was not culturally like the more moderate GOP types from far Western NC but the GOP never divided over Jesse Helms style of more strident conservatism.
The moderate & socially liberal wing of the GOP have held its nose alot for very conservative candidates from CA to NY. Even Gordon Smith who was nowhere near Bob Packwood or Mark Hatfield in policy matters ran with 98% GOP support in Oregon.
Are people seriously claiming that Christine O’Donnell could win either the primary or general election in DE?
Colorado is up on RAS.
Norton (R) – 48%
Bennet (D-inc) – 39%
Norton (R) – 44%
Romanoff (D) – 40%
Buck (R) – 48%
Romanoff (D) – 42%
Buck (R) – 48%
Bennet (D) – 42%
Obama approval: 42/57
Strongly Approve/Disapprove:
29/49
She can’t win the primary. Ras had her up 10 (?) In the general. Go ask him.
Bitterlaw,
Sorry, that was a bit below the belt. I won by 22 on the R side and about 40 on the Dem. I could just as easily have lost. The Unions have me targeted next year. Hey, we’re all Eagles fans right? Hope the job hunt is going well
Also in the poll:
Norton’s views:
52% Mainstream
33% Extreme
15% Not Sure
Buck:
43% Mainstream
36% Extreme
21% Not Sure
Yes Ayotte in NH
I was surprised that the Rasmussen poll showed O’Donnell with any sort of lead in DE, but it’s good for Republicans in general, since nobody really knows who she is.
She won’t win the primary, but if she were to be the nominee, there is no way she could win in that state, once she would be defined or whatever.
I remember her from the mid 90’s when she was often on television as an abstinence advocate. Did she ever wind up getting married?
I love the Eagles skill players. Everything else is a problem.
I believe the Bears play the Eagles again this year….
Corey,
Let’s hope so. Maybe then she learned the joys of carna…OK – won’t finish that thought.
Her bio makes no mention of a marriage.
MD,
You in town this weekend?
OK – Charles makes reference to Beltway Boy. Who is that?
Sean why is that even a question? Liberal don’t get poll if their views are extreme…
Thune will go nowhere. Establishment and DC insiders are not winning in the current GOP climate.
Comment by Charles — July 27, 2010 @ 2:12 pm
So what are you suggesting, Charles? Should we nominate some idiot “non-establishment” candidate for President? (like Rand Paul, Angle, or Buck)
I’m not for nominating a retread (ie, Romney, Huckabee, Palin), but I’d really like to get behind either Jindal, Thune, Daniels, or maybe Gingrich.
Wes: WHY “Charles the Jackoff”? I’ve always wondered. Do you have video evidence?
That’s partly correct, Rdel. Helms was actually from Central NC. He was known as a conservative long before he sought statewide office. The other NCGOP Senators have all been conservative to varying degrees. John East was an ECU political science professor specifically recruited by Helms because of Richard Morgan’s vote on the Panama Canal. He and Helms had virtually no difference in their voting records. Lauch Faircloth was the first GOP Senator from the western part of the state. He was conservative but a bit more moderate than Helms. Liddy Dole was the next western NC Republican Senator. She is to date the most moderate Republican elected to the Senate from this state. Richard Burr is the first Republican Senator since Helms to be elected from the Triangle Area. He’s more conservative than Dole but less so than Helms, East, and Faircloth. Moderate and loberal Republicans have usually backed Republican Senators regardless of ideology though. That will continue to be the case–especially since the recent Dem Senators have been far more radical in office than they campaigned.
MD,
I can see why you get so upset at me when I rip Beck. You sound just like him today!
“There’s not a dime’s worth of difference” (between the parties)
great RAS–see that likely voter model working
trash PPP poll–Jensen found a democrat surge in 2010????
poll after poll shows discouraged democrats but in NH & CA they are surging to the polls while the GOP is wishy washy about voting.
I will say it one more time–In 2006 democrats in primaries topped the GOP by 3 million in turnout. This year the GOP is +1 million over democrats–1st time ever in a midterm more GOP voters then democrats since like civil war. 10 states have set GOP primary turnout records.
Jensen see a democratic turnout surge. Right
So your saying Angle is an idiot right La Z?
This is exactly what I was talking about earlier.
Republican “retreads” always get the nomination (or the son of a “retread”) It’s how the party works, and we win Presidential elections more often than not with the “next guy in line.”
We can hash this all out starting in 2011, but if we want to win the White House back in 2012, the best bet will historically be someone who is not a U.S. Senator, but a Governor. In 2012, it will be a political plus to have never served in Washington.
Gingrich is an absolute non-starter. We would get slaughtered with him.
I like Jindal very much, but there is no way he would be able to run for reelection as Governor next year while also running for President at the same time. He will not run for President in 2012, but perhaps could be the #2, as could Thune.
There are many great things to say about Mitch Daniels, but in the television era, the hair situation could be a negative for him. Again, a great potential VP for the eventual GOP nominee…. perhaps a “retread” GOP Governor with great hair.
Bye for now.
La Z is desperately scurrying back to MSNBC for a new talking point.
campaign spot listed in one lump the most recent house polls:
•NM-1: Barela 51, Heinrich 45.
•IL- 17: Schilling 45, Hare 32.
•VA-5: Hurt 58, Perriello 35.
•AZ-8: Paton 45, Giffords 44.
•PA-11: Barletta 56, Kanjorski 37.
•PA-7: Meehan 47, Lentz 26.*
•VA-2: Rigell 41, Nye 35.
•SD-AL: Noem 49, Herseth Sandlin 44.
•ND-AL: Berg 51, Pomeroy 44.
•AR-2 : Griffin 50, Elliott 34.*
•OH-13: Ganley 44, Sutton 41.
•MS-1: Nunnelee 50, Childers 42.
There seems to be a message somewhere in these polls…
The Rinos here (not you Wes, I don’t view you that way) have spent 100 times the energy attacking Angle than they have Reid. 100 times.
La Z,
So I sound like Glenn Beck today?
You sound like an asshole every day.
What’s wrong with sounding like Glenn Beck? Unless you’re a progressive
The message is a three finger salute with a caption to “read between the lines” Democrats. LOL
MD
I sent my $25 to Angle the day after she won.
I personally make it a point to never disparage a GOP candidate–
Gulp I would send ODonnell $25 if she won. I view that as unlikely as unlike in Utah teaparty is not too strong in DE and Castle has 100% of the party support(unlike Utah).
CO. goes GOP in 12.
MD
Looks like my donation to Mike Kelly helped more than I expected. As soon as I mailed it, he released an internal showing him ahead.
Just sent in my MO absentee & voted against Obamacare (Prop. C). Ahhhh! I hope it was good for Zero too.
Ready for the Next Trillion-Dollar Bailout
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTI3ZWE1ODI0MGY1MmRjNDVlOTYwOTFhNmIxMGFjZjA=
1 or 2 money bombs for Kelly is all he needs. The Dems have committed huge $ to her. He only needs enough to fight back and point to her record.
O’Donnell was an abstinence spokeswoman. That’s like when Bristol Palin demands $15,000 a speech to extol the benefits of celibacy. Not exactly the right person for such a campaign. Now if you guys like, I’ll go up to Delaware and find out if O’Donnell’s still a virgin–although I doubt she is. Now don’t worry about me. Sometimes you just have to take one for your side. Of course in the unlikely event O’Donnell still maintains her celibacy, that will no longer be the case once I’ve finished my inquiry.
I have made a vow that EVERY time I see the word Trillion posted here on HHR, I will post the following so we know what we are talking about:
How much is 3 trillion dollars?
Suppose you hire a consultant for the outrageous price of a dollar a second. This means it costs $60 a minute, and $3600 per hour. But lets say you are the federal government and you have over three trillion dollars you want to spend on this consultant…it would mean it you would hire him for 100,000 YEARS!
dollar / timespan
$1 – 1 second
$60 – 1 minute
$3,600 – 1 hour
$86,400 – 1 day
$31,536,000 – 1 year
$315,360,000 – 1 decade
$3,153,600,000 – 1 century
$31,536,000,000 – 1 millennium
$315,360,000,000 – 10,000 years
$3,153,600,000,000 – 100,000 years
And voters wonder whether or not government should reign in spending??
Jul – My only credentials are that I am older and had time to lose more races. As for the Eagles, while it may unite us, I am not sure. I wish McNabb was still here and you probably don’t.
MD – Are any of your guilt-ridden Radnor contacts hiring? I used to work in an office where everybody was either a Democrat, gay, or both. The money was still green so I got along fine. Are you in Chester County? How are the horses on your estate handling the heat?
127– OK, MD, “idiot” was the wrong word for her. I should have said “novice”.
129– Haven’t watched a bit of MSNBC since the 2008 Election (when I switched back and forth for updates).
132– Woke up on the wrong side of the bed again, huh? Back to your vulgar name-calling. (Did I call you a vulgar name, comparing you to Beck? If so, I apologize.)
133– JulStol, unless you buy into Glenn’s silly re-defining of history, the “progressives” are either the far Left fringe of the Democratic Party (ie, Pelosi, Obama, Frank) or they were a movement, led by Teddy Roosevelt, from the early 1900’s. So why would I be a part of one of these groups? I’m a conservative Reagan Republican, and I think Glenn is a nut.
By the way, MD, relatively speaking, compared to Wes & Charles, you and I are best friends! (LOL)
Your sacrifice is noted Wes.
Next, you are requested to personally certify the status of Janet Reno. We need physical proof. Sorry, I know what you were thinking.
Bitter,
I live in Berwyn Chesco. No horses although my youngest daughter takes horseback riding lessons.
I grew up in Ridley Township. By no means wealthy.
We need physical proof.
Yeah bring us back your blue stained dress!
LZ
I enjoyed Reagan on the radio–1970’s not 1930’s but can’t stand Beck. Only Beck could make history dull–
Keep hanging in there–LZ–I agree with 95% of time.
Of course I agree with MD 95% of the time.
If I was as smart as Barack I could sort out the numbers on that one.
Rdel,
It is more an issue of style.
127– I’ll double down, MD, on apologizing for the Angle remark. I’m 100% on board with her and, like Wes, I desperately hope she wins! I do not think she’s an “idiot”, only a “novice” (and not our strongest candidate). In fact, in reviewing her views and her biography, I’m sure that if she gets elected, I’ll love her! She’s huge in the Nevada home schooling movement, and my wife and I just finished home schooling our 4th (and final) child.
My ONLY point on Angle is that we learn from her — let’s not nominate any more like her, that is if there’s an equally conservative choice. Let’s show we’ve learned by rejecting Ken Buck in CO.
Kelly can self fund a bit too. And he will
Jul,
I realize that. Also, Dahlkemper is a Pelosi boot licker.
Tim,
Bennet and Romanoff got polled as well for whether they were mainstream or extreme.
10* Would it be more accurate to describe Michael Bennet’s views as mainstream or extreme?
44% Mainstream
42% Extreme
14% Not sure
11* Would it be more accurate to describe Andrew Romanoff’s views as mainstream or extreme?
47% Mainstream
36% Extreme
17% Not sure
Lazy Bra needs to try, like, finding a BFF in real life.
I didn’t realize a political polling analysis website could be any more “middle school”, involving so many hurt feelings, alliances. Laaaaame.
Bitter,
Yes I was glad to see McNabb go. We seemed to win more games without him than we did with him. You’re a college graduate and a pretty successful guy. Current economy not withstanding.
Keep hanging in there–LZ–I agree with 95% of time. Of course I agree with MD 95% of the time.
Comment by rdelbov — July 27, 2010 @ 3:32 pm
Thanks, Rdel! Actually, you’ve made my point well. I’m sure I agree with MD about 90% of the time too. But that’s not good enough for him (or JulStol). He gets furiously angry and starts name-calling if you cross him even slightly. Despite that, I really respect MD as I think (most of) his posts are brilliant. And as I’ve been saying forever, we’re supposed to be on the same side! The true enemies have a “D” after their name.
I’d love to see these polls:
Tipton/Salazar (CO-3)
Gardner/Markey (CO-4)
Frazier/Perlmutter (CO-7)
My guess is all three are red, or within MOE…
LaZebra,
It’s a style thing. I have my problems in that regard too.
154– What’s a BFF?
Hey Mark Cali (or Tina), I meant to ask you a California question: I read that your state’s Governor’s Mansion (in Sacramento) has not been lived in by the Governor since Ronald Reagan — and he only lived in it for the first 3 months of his 8 years. So WHY is this? What do California Governors have against living in Sacramento? How are they able to be effective governors if they live many hours away from where the state’s business is being conducted? Just wondering if you know.
158– I have no problems with you, JulStol. As I told Wes, I was very much like you when I was younger. I even voted for and worked for Pat Robertson when he ran for President in 1988.
I’m just glad you don’t have MD’s temper or his profane name-calling. By the way, God bless you and your bride on your wedding plans!
BFF = Best Friend Forever
I’m sorry. On behalf of my generation for coming up with that one
I am not a D Mac hater by any means Jul. The fact is they won a ton of games with him.
It was time for both parties to part ways. He always seemed like a strange fit for a Reid team. Reid is a huge fan of the short-pass but that wasn’t D’s strength. He was awesome on the long ball. Now, Kolb can throw the slants very well but clearly doesn’t have D’s arm strength.
Paladin/CFP
US Congress – Colorado
CO_03
Salazar (D-Inc) 45%
Tipton (R) 49%
CO_04
Markey (D-Inc) 41%
Gardner (R)51%
CO_07
Perlmutter (D-Inc) 45%
Frazier (R) 44%
Each poll was of 500 likely voters.
7/25-7/26
2010 Paladin/CFP, All Rights Reserved.
LaZe,
Thanks for the well wishes.
MD,
I’ll take your lack of response to my earlier ? as an answer.
MD- I was kidding about the horses. I liked the chicken cheesesteaks at Berwyn Pizza when I was in law school.
You see La Z. You just keep pushing it.
166– Pushing what?
Jul,
I don’t know what you are referencing. Sorry.
Not an Eagles fan, but Donovan McNabb is a future Hall of Famer. He led your team to one Super Bowl and numerous NFC Championship games. Sorry, but I think the Eagles will be in rebuilding mode without him.
Bitter
Mario’s right down the street has awesome pizza.
MD,
Oh, you may have missed it. Just asked if you were in town this weekend.
Part of the weekend Jul. There is a family reunion on my mom’s side on Sunday in jersey.
future Hall of Famer.
LOL, you might want to stick to politics.
Ah well I’ll be down at the fiancee’s on Saturday but she works during the first part of the day. I’ll be close by if you’d like to grab lunch somewhere.
Mr. Bottlecap (a beer distributor) also sells the best Fuente double wrapped cigars Bitter.
Jul,
Where exactly will you be?
GM,
He is on the bubble. A SB win may put him over the top. FWIW – I don’t think that will happen with the skins but you never know.
Plymouth Twp but I can drive pretty much anywhere.
Bitter and MD,
What are your thoughts on Skip Brian’s near ouster for re election? He wants to be State Party Chair but I’m not sure he’s better than what we have now…but he isn’t worse either.
DW – I am sure you’re not terribly far off… I believe that Salazar and Markey will fall, and it will be outside of MOE… Frazier will win in a wave. I’m thinking he pulls it out by 2 or 3.
Jul,
I haven’t given that much thought to be honest.
I thought Charles the Jackoff was a devilishly clever play on Carlos the Jackal. Did I outkick the coverage?
MD,
Maybe I really should get a life. A 22 year old Lehigh County R is concerned about who’s chairman of Chester County… Well, I know the guy who ran against him too.
The last time I looked, Donovan McNabb had the lowest career Interception percentage of all-time. He’s also very high on a lot of other career passing stats. Plus he’s in the Top 5 for rushing yards by a QB.
I’m hearing that Kurt Warner is a lock for the HOF. If he is, the McNabb will also make it.
MI-O1 R Primary (Benishek Internal)
http://danbenishekforcongress.com/2010/07/27/benishek-leads-by-16/
Benishek 36
Allen 20
Undecided 37
Can we plz show some thread discipline people!
Thread discipline?
What is that?
How about soccer, did you hear Thierry Henry joined the NY Red Bulls?
And KC defeated Man United in a friendly? Isn’t that something?
Oh happy days!
NC Senate(Civitas)
Burr(R-Inc): 44%
Marshall(D): 37%
http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-unaffiliated-voters-and-low-name-i-d-present-uphill-battle-marshal
rushing yards for a QB? that might have gotten Fran Tarkenton into the HOF, but nobody since then. He is in the top 5 for choking under pressure however, so there is that. LOL
The Eagles thought so much of him as a QB that they let him go to a division rival. Ponder that one…
WI-03(Public Opinion Strategies(R Internal))
Kind(D-Inc): 44%
Kapanke(R): 38%
http://www.scribd.com/doc/34848887/AFP-Kind-Kapanke-Poll-Breakdown
Charlie rangel, your days are numbered here at faber. You and all your sick democrat buddies.
Subtract 4 or 5 points for the internal.
OR-GOV –
Dudley (R) 47%
Kitzhaber (D) 44%
Ras-http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/oregon/election_2010_oregon_governor
OR Governor(Rasmussen)
Dudley(R): 47%
Kitzhaber(D): 44%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/oregon/election_2010_oregon_governor
Love the A House reference Add.
193…yay! that means an Oregon Senate number will come out tomorrow from Rasmussen!!!
We will see if that race is as tight as Paladin/CFP says it is.
The Eagles thought so much of him as a QB that they let him go to a division rival. Ponder that one…
Comment by Gary Maxwell — July 27, 2010 @ 4:54 pm
Money, and insecurity about his longterm health.
Wow.
“Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Virginia voters continue to approve of the job new Governor Bob McDonnell is doing, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. That includes 29% who Strongly Approve. ”
–this was the guy would was certain to be wiped out by the WaPost hit piece.
I thought Charles the Jackoff was a devilishly clever play on Carlos the Jackal.
Comment by addisonst — July 27, 2010 @ 4:12 pm
If so, that’s brilliant. (Am I violating “thread discipline” now?)
Do you think the funding from the DNC dried up? Poof no more bullchip posts!
DW – our little firm seems to get more right than wrong.
I wonder how Gov Deeds is doing?
BTW – we have 4 days left in July. We all know those polls will turn against the AZ poll!
Th AZ law!!! How could I screw that up?
190…I know its an internal, but still good news for the GOP. This is a district that went 58/41 for Zero.
Brown, Collins, Snowe all voted NO on Disclose.
REID voted no (probably to save his ass)
Lieberman sat out.
Feinstein threatened a NO due to the NRA exemption.
IF THAT IS WHY THE NRA WONT ENDORSE ANGLE…
sigh thats sad.
Reid voted no because of Senate rules.
I’m putting the over/under on Ayotte’s lead tomorrow at 20 points in the PPP(D) poll…
Even 4 or 5 points off and that is a great poll. Kind is the type of longshot we would knockoff in an 80-100 seat election.
Reid voted No so as to be on the prevailing side of the vote. Only one who has voted with the prevailing side on a bill is allowed to put that same or similar bill on the floor for another vote. The Democrats want to try again, thus Reid had to vote No.
That provision can be found in Robert’s Rules of Order, as well as in the procedures of the US Senate.
Reid voted no because of Senate rules.
Comment by Brandon — July 27, 2010 @ 5:18 pm
Brandon’s right. By voting “No”, he gets the right to bring it back up for another vote whenever he wants. Bob Dole used to do this a lot, when he was Minority Leader.
209..or at least 60-65 seats which is what I am seeing right now.
210,211– Tropic Lightning minds think alike, Marv!
actually, I just double-checked my scorecard and I have a GOP gain of 69 seats at present.
LaZebra,
Roger that!
DW,
When will we put out our final projections for the US House and Senate? I’m figuring that we should have it out at noon EST on Mon 1 Nov 10.
How does that work for you?
Wes,
Have you added Oklahoma’s Mary Fallin to your list of up-and-coming female Republicans? Looks like she may be the next Sooner Governor.
216…sounds good
Scott Brown held up for once
Kapanake is a great candidate–no a super candidate–conservative/articulate/good looking/good money raiser
WI3 is nations #1 dairy state–guess who hates milk–that’s right Obama. He is a tobacco guy-not a milk guy. Okay milk & dairy prices stink. Remember milk at nearly $4.50 or $5.00 per gallon? I have seen it at $1.99. Dairyland is hurting./
Great OR poll–maybe the left coast has hope for change???
Has there been a case in which Snowe and/or Collins have held up, but Brown did not?
Nice to see others here talking 65 seats or more. The pied piper of addison st has been saying
France declares War on Al-Qaeda!
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-07-27-France-al-qaida_N.htm
“I think it’s made of the same stuff” as former U.S. President George W. Bush’s tough line on al-Qaeda.
I made a couple of posts on our new thread
Ras:
Obama in VA
49/50
As a matter of fact, I have, LZ. Here’s my list of top-level female Republicans seeking statewide office this year:
Governor-
Whitman (CA)
Brewer (AZ)
Martinez (NM)
Fallin (OK)
Meyer (WY)
Haley (SC)
Handel (GA)
Senate-
Murkowski (AK)
Fiorina (CA)
Norton (CO)
Ayotte (NH)
McMahon (CT)
Angle (NV)
At Large House-
Noem (SD)
Rollins (DE)
All of these women have good to great chances to win, and I hope they all pull it out. They will definitely reflect a new era for the GOP if successful en masse.