Wednesday Morning Tidbits (Polls from NH, CA)
I think it is safe to say that we should take any Sooner Poll we get in the future with a grain of salt. After telling us over the weekend that Drew Edmondson was running away with the Democratic nomination, it turns out that it will be Jari Askins as the Democratic nominee to take on Mary Fallin in November to see who will become the next Governor of Oklahoma.
Public policy Polling was up late last night and has released their new poll for New Hampshire.
US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Kelly Ayotte 47%
Bill Binnie 14%
Ovide Lamontagne 8%
Jim Bender 6%
Everyone Else <4%GOVERNOR – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
John Stephen 26%
Jack Kimball 15%
Karen Testerman 5%
Frank Emiro 3%PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Mitt Romney 31%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Ron Paul 12%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Sarah Palin 9%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mitch Daniels 1%
This poll was done July 23-25 among 415 primary voters. PPP also put out their second half of the California poll last night.
GOVERNOR – CALIFORNIA (PPP)
Jerry Brown (D) 46%
Meg Whitman (R) 40%
This poll was done July 23-25 among 614 registered voters. That should get you started this morning. We were also supposed to have another waste of money from Quinnipiac University for the state of New York this morning at 6:30am, but so far it has not shown up on their website. More polls at lunch time….
1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank goodness for those NH primary numbers.
Mets pennant charge began last night!
(…and, yes, I believe in Santa Claus!).
Ayotte has zoomed back up–she has all the establishment support plus some teaparty support–Oh yes Palin endorsed since the last poll. I think the last poll had her in the 30s and now she is 47%.
Lots of factors in work there-she does have the strange combination of all the party folks plus many of the insurgents plus Palin
Did I say there that the turnout last night seems to set another record for the GOP primary.
In 2006 263KD 180K R
In 2010 262K D 241K R
A bit of a snooze on the GOP side but a barn burner on the democrat side. Yet there was a huge GOP turnout while the democratic turnout was fairly mild. Where is the excitment in 2010??
bull bull bull bull on the california poll.
Brown hasnt had that big of a lead on whitman in a while, its overstated by 4-5 pts.
so the poll yesterday for fiorina was probably the same.
I’m on pins and needles about those figures from NY!
Daddy, have you made Malia less of a chunko yet?
Of the NH candidates, who is the most extremist? (I don’t support Ayotte, because women shouldn’t work outside the home.) I just want to know who people like me should rally around in order to turn this likely hold into a likely loss.
Too bad
IL-SEN (Rasmussen)
Giannoulias (D) 43 %
Kirk (R) 41 %
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/illinois/toplines/toplines_illinois_senate_july_26_2010
#10
at least he hasnt sank further.
G has expanded his lead from 1 pt to 2.
in 1 month.
seems like statistical noise to me- and hey at least hes out of the thirties again.
Rdel-
I like the R enthusiasm #’s, but don’t the D’s #’s look good as well or am I not understanding?
damnit again-
further reading on the poll.
there are more conservatives in the state than liberals.
conservatives only support kirk 74%.
WTF is wrong with them in Illinois?
I know hes not Al Salvi, but lock up the con vote and he jumps ahead of G by a few points again. WTF???
#12
the Dem numbers dropped by 1k.
but the GOP numbers JUMPED by 61k
thats a 62,000 vote shift to Republicans in turnout.
No good polls coming out of CA lately.
NY-GOV (Quinnipiac)
Cuomo (D) 56 %
Lazio (R) 26 %
Cuomo (D) 55 %
Paladino (R) 25 %
GOP Primary
Lazio 39 %
Paladino 23 %
Undecided 33 %
#15
BESIDES PPP
the polls have been relatively good.
Both Ras and Survey usa put whitman in th lead
Field Poll (the most accurate in CA) showed Whitman down 1.
Field showed Fiorina down THREE.
Survey usa showed her up 2.
Ras showed her down 7.
PPP is an outliner, calm down.
Rdel
Great excitement metrics in OK, one of the more conservative states in the Midwest. I haven’t seen many turnout stats from other primaries, or just don’t remember.
Is this typical?
That’s a 25 percent R increase in turnout as D hold steady.
From National Review’s campaign spot:
In West Virginia, Governor Joe Manchin, who is likely to be the Democrats’ nominee in the race for the Senate, cannot use the $140,000 left in his gubernatorial campaign fund in a Senate campaign. So he’s effectively starting from scratch. His most likely rival, Republican John Raese, ran against Robert Byrd in 2006 and spent $1.5 million of his own fortune. Manchin is still a favorite, but this is a complication.
The Ill Ras poll is inline with what I suggested yesterday. Not great but Alexi isn’t showing a surge either.
This still over counts dems that will show up. Let’s hope Kirk doesn’t do anything else that’s stupid.
Finn,
RAS showed Fiorina down 7.
I’m inclined to believe this. I think we’ve a better chance ousting Murray, Feingold in WA and WI than ousting Boxer in CA.
democrats will hold california, wisconsin, washington & illinois but the gop will win indiana, pa, delaware,n. dakota, colorado, arkansas & nevada. the gop will gain control of the senate in 2012.
#21
if PPP showed the gov race tied, id believe both polls.
but they show whitman down 6 as well.
NO ONE RIGHT NOW shows her down that far- most show them tied or her with a slight lead.
thus, i discount their polling this time as either
a) a bad sample
b) oversampling democrats (46%, really? this isnt 2008, even for california thats over by 4-5pts)
c) its a push poll meant to discourage Republicans.
#22
dont count on anything for 2012, thats 2 years away.
It sounds very cocky.
The Democrats thought they were going to go 3 for three 2006,2008,and 2010- early 2009 polling showed them favored to gain perhaps 2 more seats.
Then-
Bidens son declared he wouldnt run in Delaware.
Specter switched parties
Dorgan retired
Bayh retired
Lincoln voted for HC
Rossi,Johnson, Fiorina all declared and won or are going to win primaries in WA,WI,CA
Gialonoliasawhatshisface won the primary in Illinois.
A LOT of things have happened in just over a year to shift the Senate elections in favor of the Republicans.
It is quite possible for opinions to shift in 2011 and 2012, even if it doesnt seem likely.
FOCUS ON 2010- TRY TO WIN ILL,WA,WI,CA NOW and you wont have to pray and hope for the next cycle…
The campaign in California for Senate hasn’t even really begun and already people are writing it off? Ridiculous.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/07/mass_legislatur.html?p1=News_links
So imagine the outcry from the left, if say, the GOP candidate is Palin, and she wins the national popular vote by 10,000 votes over Obama, but fell short on the 270, except for this new law in which the state of Massachusetts would have to hand over its electoral votes even though the state went 68/31 for Obama.
How about another Photo Finish like we saw yesterday in Oklahoma.
See here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1798f4d4-8f68-4f8d-8215-502d641b819a
27..my browser is having problems with that link, could you post the particulars?
RAS had Boxer 89% for D’s–5% for Carly F but PPP has it 77-13. So if you put the PPP numbers in the RAS partisan breakdown situation you have a tie in CA.
I don’t believe that. I think Carly F & Whitman lead–trash polls from PPP and frankly RAS was off in its last poll too.
In OK the democrats outnumber GOP by 5-4 so roughly the democrats should outnumber the GOP on primary night by 25%
So if the GOP did 240K the democrats should do 300K–they did 260K.
I might add the democrats had a burnbarner primary-with huge # of ads while the GOP had a snoozefest.
Yet the GOP set a record and the democrats were down.
AL-GOV (Rasmussen)
Bentley (R) 55 %
Sparks (D) 35 %
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/alabama/toplines/toplines_alabama_governor_july_22_2010
IF you are a PLATINUM Member at RAS you should now that a new NV-SEN Poll will be released at Noon ET.
Good night for Obumbler on Ras -15, 46/53…Improvement from -20, 43/56 yesterday. Probably noise, seems to be hovering around 45-47% in most polls, slightly lower in Ras.
DW,
Sure.
KS 1st District GOP Primary
Barnett 24 %
Huelskamp 24 %
Mann 24 %
Wasinger 12 %
Boldra 7 %
Cobb 2 %
Undecided 7 %
The Full Quinnie Poll is now out
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1480&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
California is a huge and diverse state. It’s tough to poll. Rasmussen has never had a great track record here, sorry to say. In fact, Rasmussen’s state polling, generally, has been mediocre at best.
The race hasn’t even begun on the Senate side. Like in the primary, Carly is waiting to strike when people are actually paying attention. On the Governor’s, yes, it’s heating up early.
I will go with Survey USA or Field before anyone else, when it comes to California.
30…so the anti-Angle eeyores will be out in force with their sharp knives waiting for this poll. I hope they are disappointed.
great news form AL–
interesting poll from KS
spot on about RAS from CA–look to the last field poll in my opinion
RAS state polls are always problematic, because of his methodology of 1-day, 500-count samples.
He aggregates these state polls for his national numbers, which then tend to be very accurate.
PPP-D, on the other hand, is deliberately making stuff up. Its basic narrative for this election cycle is that the electorate is more Dem-friendly than in 2008 or 2006.
Ras has Kirk trailing by 2 to the Drat crook. This is not good news.
We need to take this seat, which would be a blow to the Obumbler Regime.
Toss PPP-D registerd voters polls. They are garbage. They have problems with the methodology for 2010 Election.
another surprise decline in durable goods orders-these surprises are coming on a daily basis this summer.
Tina, no ads running for either candidate in Chicago. Kirk has a big money advantage and should be able to repair his image. I worked for Kirk while he was a congressman and he is a nice guy who is really bright. His politics are far to the left of mine, but are fairly in line with Illinois voters. He should be able, barring some new revelations, turn the tide as the campaign heats up.
Rdel or TOF-
Is there a place where I can get the Vregistration #’s for each state? I want to show my Voter registration army on Thurs.tnx!
#38
Kirk is still struggling to win over conservative Republicans.
He locks them up in the south and he climbs ahead of G.
G’s very liberal base is happy to vote Green this year out of disgust- they usually get 5-10% of the vote in years with shitty Democratic candidates.
If Kirk can get to 48% he’ll likely win.
hes got independents by a 20-pt margin.
he only has 74% of conservatives. get that to 85% (likely) and he goes ahead.
Its way early Ryan, and nobody is paying attention due to vacations, school out, etc… I will be more concerned in mid October. At this point, Kirk needs/can do better. He needs to be more effective – I will not say he is running a poor campaign yet – like some here said about Angle.
I want to demonstrate how the D’s out register us in each state fyi.
IL,NV,CA are all still competitive.
Im surprised PPP didnt poll washington to show murray up by 8 over rossi yet…
or knowing their methods, up by 11.
Rdel,
Beige Book is on deck @ 2 PM EST. I do not think this report will be good at all.
The Durable #s were revised lower for May.
I agree Tina, his campaign does need to be more effective but I think given his opponent and his record, once ads start running Kirk should be able to redfine himself favorably. He finished strong in 2008, winning fairly comfortably despite many prognostictors claiming his seat was lost. If he can win over those same voters and not see mass defections in S. Illinois, he will win.
KS-SEN GOP Primary
Interesting Fact
According to the last FEC Filling Reports (Pre-Primary) Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt have nearly the same amount of money CoH as of July 14th
Moran 795,015,23 $
Tiahrt 888,548,66 $
From the pro-American Left — remember them? — Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen have a remarkable op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this morning on the failed promise of President Obama to transcend racialist politics and class warfare. They write:
Rather than being a unifier, Mr. Obama has divided America on the basis of race, class and partisanship. Moreover, his cynical approach to governance has encouraged his allies to pursue a similar strategy of racially divisive politics on his behalf…. By dividing America, Mr. Obama has brought our government to the brink of a crisis of legitimacy, compromising our ability to address our most important policy issues.
-Liberals going after the marxist.
(Source was from the Corner).
Tina
spot on for economic projection plus spot on Obama’s shift in political perception. From post partisan/post racial to ultra leftie
the Corner folks also picked apart the PPP polls from CA & NH
I don’t bother anymore as PPP is finding a leftward/democratic shift in voter intentions from earlier this year and they see voter turnout to be like 2008.
What an absolute joke.
52…its as though Obama seems himself as George Jefferson, and Michelle as Weesie. Instead of a “deluxe apartment in the sky” they get to stay in the White House and ride around in Air Force 1.
At least George Jefferson worked hard to build a business.
Caddell and Schoen are both pollsters who have decided that their integrity is worth a lot more than the adulation that cheerleading for Democrats gets the likes of Tom Jensen. Tom is going to find “movement” in the final weeks of the race, in a desperate attempt to keep his reputation unsullied. Except some of us have caught on to the sham…
Laz, from last thread.
Many Republicans, not Just Conservatives, stayed home in 2008. Many figured McCain was as close enough to Obama on the major issues of the day that it wouldn’t have mattered which one got into office.
While it’s true that McCain wouldn’t have screwed the country as badly as Obama has, he still would’ve screwed the country, AND GIVEN THE ELECTION TO THE DEMOCRATS IN 2012.
I leave it up to you to determine which is better, massive screwing 2008 to 2010, less screwing 2010 to 2012 after the GOP takes over Congress under Obama
Or
Would you prefer Less screwing 2008 to 2010 but heavier screwing after 2010 because the Democrats would’ve taken the Congress? You know McCain as POTUS would have signed every bill that came out of a Democrat Congress
Can we at least agree on that?
Tony,
That’s a lot of screwing Tony. The equivalent of a political orgy.
Shorter Tony. “We’re screwed.” LOL
56– Tony, Bartman is right, you really have “screwing” on your mind this morning. Any reason why?
You know McCain as POTUS would have signed every bill that came out of a Democrat Congress. Can we at least agree on that?
Comment by Tony — July 28, 2010 @ 10:32 am
Oh yep, and then he’d got to Iran and sign an official Surrender, giving the Iranians control of our country! C’mon, Tony, get real! Have you been paying attention at all? McCain has voted with us (ACU rating) 96% of the time since Obama was elected. He was a leader in the fight against Obamacare. Last month it was HIS senate bill to prohibit the VAT tax that was overwhelmingly supported. You are so filled with hatred for the man (based on 1 or 2 votes against your pet issues) that you completely overlook anything good he does. If McCain were President today, he’d be fighting the Democrats tooth and nail! He’s got a lifetime conservative voting record of 82%, so it’s same to assume that he’d oppose at least 82% of the stuff the Dems sent him. Wake up, Tony, and get past your stupid hatred.
RE: Kirk
Someone explain to me why Kirk thought it would be a good idea to volunteer that “if I were in the Senate, I’d vote to confirm Elena Kagan.”
1) Kirk ISN’T in the Senate, so therefore he had a perfectly legitimate opportunity to answer, “Look, I haven’t seen the Kagan confirmation hearings– I’ve been too busy campaigning in IL– so I don’t want to shoot from the hip on an issue of that importance. Plus, I think that without full information, it would be inappropriate for me to speculate on a vote I’ll never be able to cast anyway.”
2) But no. He gratuitously announced he’d vote for Kagan. What was Kirk’s political calculus? He figured he was already so popular with IL GOP conservatives that the Kagan comment wouldn’t damp down their wild enthusiasm? That they WANT another Lindsey Graham, but just don’t realize it yet? Or did Kirk think his comment about Kagan would gain him some IL DEM votes? As if.
Kirk’s Kagan comment is yet another stupid, self-inflicted wound. If this were baseball, you’d score it as an “unforced error.”
56– As for your point that we’re better off because McCain lost and Obama won — due to the bath the Dems are about to take in 2010 (and maybe in 2012 too), you are correct to a point.
But these things can never be predicted accurately in advance. Elections are NOT chess games, where we can be looking 2 or 3 elections ahead. The election of Jimmy Carter led to Ronald Reagan. Does that mean that, in retrospect, conservatives should have voted for Carter in 1976? The election of Bill Clinton led to Newt Gingrich and the Republican Congress. But does that mean we should’ve supported Slick Willy in 1992?
While Obama’s election may be leading to some very good electoral results this year, and maybe in 2012 too, but who’s to say that Obama might make a major national security blunder that will lead to thousands, maybe even millions, of Americans to lose their lives in a devastating terrorist attack, or maybe an Iranian nuclear attack. Less deadly, but equally horrible, what if Scalia or Thomas were to suddenly die and Obama gets to replace them on the Supreme Court, tipping the Court to the Left. Would THAT be worth your 1 or 2 good elections?
60,
Kirk’s political calculation is that he has to run up some decent margins in the North suburbs of Chicago, where he has represented, and that might help there. He also needs to cut into the dem base in Chicago, which is possible given Alexi G’s negatives. He also probably suspects it won’t hurt him amongst conservatives because it is not a critical issue. She is going to be confirmed anyway.
Im not sure it was a great move, but I wouldn’t classify it as an error. Kirk is going to win this election by being conservative enough to the comparitevly smaller base of conservatives and moderate enough for dems and independents to stay home or even crossover. Kagan might help him, although I think the effect is marginal either way.
Bartman, the definition of a political orgy is when politicians gives it up to anybody for any price or no price at all.
I realize not all of Republicans can be as Conservative as I’d like them to be, but when they whore themselves out to be something they are not, I have no use for them. McCain and Ben Nelson to name two.
They are nothing more than fairweather politicians. Garbage IMHO.
Has anyone caught this: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/07/28/sec-says-new-finreg-law-exempts-public-disclosure/
This is scary stuff and I would say that the POTUS is a big hypocrite and a liar but that would be stating the obvious.
BTW, I’m gonna need a new job because of the Financial Reform Law. My business stands to be deemed unworthy any day now. Anybody got any ideas?
mnw
I tend to agree that voicing support for Kagan is not my idea of a vote winner.
The indies in the middle are iffy on Kagan and the liberals who really love her are not voting for Kirk.
Like with Angle its fairly pointless to spectulate how another candidate would be faring against Alex G. in IL–We got Kirk so there you have it. I am not thrilled with in Kirk in IL but I suspect when people go into that voting booth the GOP will win. Not Kirk but the GOP will win. folks will just not hand that seat to Alex G-just my opinion mind you. A party win -not a personal win
Tony,
Agreed, I was just trying to be funny:)
Laz, funny You should mention McCain’s 96 acu rating at the same time as I was writing that he is nothing more than a fairweather politician.
Tony, I noticed on the previous thread your contention that the GOP leaders are completely unresponsible for the losses the party endured in 2006 and 2008. That’s utterly ridiculous. The leadership sets the agenda. Bush made the decision, based on obviously flawed intelligence, to invade Iraq and then pretend nothing was going on for years while the country melted down. Bush decided not to call for spending restraint and back up such a call by vetoing pork-laden spending bills. Bush tried to ram amnesty through Congress. Hastert and Frist bobbed their heads to what Bush wanted and twisted arms and cajoled their members into doing what they wanted. Even the most liberal backbenching Republicans had nothing to do with what the leadership chose to do. It was the leadership that tried to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case against the will of a wide majority of the American people. The so-called RINOs actually did the right thing and opposed that travesty. Your sanctimonious contention that the GOP leadership was the only segment of the party bearing no responsibility for the losses back then is absilutely asinine, and I think you know it.
I am happy with the IL poll. Kirk has been hammered by the Chicago media for a month, and is still in a dead tossup. I thought he might be down by 5% here
the media will go after Alexi next, and Kirk has a 4 to 1 COH and has been lying low until the next news cycle when everyone forgets about his resume.
Look Kirk needs to start talking with IL influential Conservative leaders. If he can get better with GOP voters, he would have a 5% lead right now
Just asn an FYI, Tony: Ben Nelson is a Democrat.
rdelbov,
I’m with you. Most importantly right now is to get majorities, change the leadership, and change the committee chairs. Then we need to concentrate on cleansing a handful of RINO’s.
Letting a democrat win because you think a republican is too moderate or liberal is exactly how we got here. If you want to make a difference within the party vote in the primaries! According to vote numbers very few of us ever do that.
To be fair to me at least, Bart, I can’t vote in a GOP primary.
What did the Rinos do wrong in 2006/2008?
Wes,
Why not?
Tom Roeser, one of the most respected conservatives in IL, has a weekly Chicago radio show. He had Kirk’s former deputy Chief of Staff on.
This guy said Kirk only votes moderate and left wing because he has to run every two years in a DEM House District with a big Jewish population.
He feels that if Kirk is elected to a 6 year Senate Term he will not vote with Snowe or Brown, but more like a Bob Corker of Tenn.
Avoiding the gaffes over his resume and his position on the SC pick, would have been better for him overall. Fortunately, mistakes (I do not think they are that big) can be overcome at this stage.
Well, Tina, Bush, Cheney, Hastert, Frist, DeLay, and McConnell were running the party back then and setting the agenda. Are you saying they;re RINOs since they were in charge of the party and bore responsibility for the party’s agenda?
BTW, I voted for McCain. As much as I hate to admit it because I despise him so much, he is a better man than Obama could ever be.
On the flip side, Obama is an America hating Marxist so I EXPECT him to do what he’s doing. McCain just whores himself out, sometimes without reason.
This guy said Kirk only votes moderate and left wing because he has to run every two years in a DEM House District with a big Jewish population.
He feels that if Kirk is elected to a 6 year Senate Term he will not vote with Snowe or Brown, but more like a Bob Corker of Tenn.
Comment by Jason T — July 28, 2010 @ 11:07 am
Jason T, I hope you are correct ultimatlely. I, however, have seen this too many times – and McAmnesty is the prime example of this. Talk like a conservative running for office, and then acting like a Drat when you are in office.
I’m a registered Libertarian, Bart. Under NC law, party primaries are closed, so unless I reregister as a Republican (which I will never again be so long as GWB still lives) or an unaffiliated voter, I can’t vote in the state Republican primary.
For the record, I didn’t vote for McCain in 2008. I left the presidential spot on my ballot blank that year.
No, we need a better analysis of what Rinos did re: Amnesty and the failure to extend tax cuts, and bigger spending.
McAmnesty deserves a lot of blame for why the tax cuts will be expiring too.
Remember, his early mantra in 2001, was they are tax cuts for the rich.
What a POS.
Wes, I know Nelson is a Democrat. He’s still a political whore though.
Tina, I know that I sound like the defacto Kirk defender here, but I am really not. He is a dumbf%6k who should be up 15%. The IL GOP is pathetic and should have vetted him earlier so Kirk could have got out in front of this crap earlier.
I will wait after Labor Day to be worried, but his big cash advantage makes me breathe easier.
I held my nose for McAmnesty in 2008 too- not because of him, but for Palin, who was the brighter of the two.
Jason T, agreed, wait till after Labor Day. Please continue to post your info on the race, however. Its good.
But after TARP-Amnesty, Bailouts by the Rs, I will simply not vote for the candidate with an R after his/her name.
Tony, Bush supported amnesty and actively tried to get Congress to pass it. Fail nunber one. Conservative Republicans were spending just as much as liberal Republicans, and Bush never called for spending restraint nor vetoed ANY spending bill. Fail number two. Where were the conservative Republicans on the issue of extending the tax cuts? They never proposed it; had they, the bill would have gone through Congress, especially in 2005. No one proposed that though. Fail number three. Any more?
well said Tina. I am glad the Kirk crap came out over the Summer instead of October.
It just sickens me that scum like alexi can even be in this race, he is even more sleazy than Franken
funny You should mention McCain’s 96 acu rating at the same time as I was writing that he is nothing more than a fairweather politician.
Comment by Tony — July 28, 2010 @ 10:59 am
I’m missing the joke, Tony. Do you not understand what 96% means? That’s 24 out of 25 votes in our favor. Quite honestly, it’s not that much higher than his 82% Lifetime rating. Unlike your silly “fairweather” belief, the reason he’s gone up (from 82 to 96) is because, under Obama, all Democratic bills have been much more clearly liberal. Nothing from Obama has been even remotely “moderate”. If you look at just about any Republican moderate (ie, Snowe, Collins), their ACU ratings have gone up significantly under Obama.
By the way, to answer your silly claim that JD would be a better senator — only if you like late night informercials. Less than a month now until the offical END of J.D. Hayworth’s political career. Thank God.
87. Will do Tina.
(Who will continue with greater spending/tax increases/deals with Drats/Amnesty/etc.
For the brain challenged, I make no mention of SOCIAL ISSUES.
The GOP leadership isn’t responsible for the votes the members. That’s a weak argument.
“They made me vote for amnesty. ” Just doesn’t cut it
Nathan Deal is toast.
Atlanta Newspaper says there is a grand Jury looking into him
I can agree that Hastert and Frist were bad managers. Remember, I referred to Hastert as the “BLOB” for his handling of FFF.
Actually, LZ, McCain has probably ticked upward in his conservative voting record because he doesn’t like Obama. The President was very in gracious in victory, and McCain is a very vindictive politician. His best way to get back at Obama for that is to oppose the Dems’ agenda at every turn. That’s probably the biggest reason McCain is voting as consistenyl conservative as he is now.
We got lucky on Deal folks. If the grand Jury leak came out after he won the runoff, we would be screwed.
Well gang, have a great day. Will be back later.
You really don’t know much about politics, do you, Tony? The3 point of the leadership is to get their agenda passed. That;s why there are leaders and whips. They barter with, bribe, and cajole their members to get the votes they want. If you seriously want to excuse the leadership from all the problems the Republicans had during the Bush era and pretend they alone bear no responsibility for what happened, then there’s no point in responding to you anymore. You clearly have no idea what the hell you’re talking about.
I’ve a bad feeling of that NV-SEN Poll coming out from RAS at Noon. I’ve the feeling that Reid is ahead. I hope I’m wrong though.
tina, many hate Hasert here in IL, because he was chummy with Mayor Daley on pork projects. Like the Expansion of O’Hare Airport that is wiping out Suburban GOP towns.
Hasert’s son lost in the GOP Primary for the IL-14, because the former Speaker was a RINO
Have a good day, Tina.
Daniel, it just has to be close. what does a small lead mean right now anyways?
The trend will be our friend after Labor day
Jason T,
It still will be a tough Race for Handel against Barnes.
As long as Reid is not near 50%, angle will be fine.
104,
I hope RIGHT YOU ARE, Jason T.
not as Tough as a Tainted Deal against Barnes. Handel won Statewide as SOS too
“You know McCain as POTUS would have signed every bill that came out of a Democrat Congress”
Asinine comment of the day. A completely baseless statement.
I agree with you on that, Jason. I’m no McCain fan, but the idea that he would be a rubberstamp for a Dem Congress isn’t supported by fact.
Laz, are you so gullible to believe McCain is voting against Obama’s bills because they are not moderate enough?
Never fear, in a few months, McCain will be the old McCain and when those really important bills come up, You can worry along with the rest of us and ask, “Will McCain screw us or not?”
Daniel, I feel the GOP should treat every race as tough. I like it when GOP candidates are nervous.
If we treated every race in 2006 and 2008 with a dump in our boxers, we might have had the brains to save Burns, Smith, Coleman, and Dole.
And Barnes won the Governorship. Speaking of Polls between the two it’s close.
Tony, you have to be realistic. After Shadegg took a pass, McCain was going to win. We have to live with him, no choice.
Hayworth is no smarter than Kirk or Blumenthal. He does those awful govt Cheese infomercials, and does not expect it to haunt him?
Jason,
Honestly I think Bush screwed Burns in MT 2006. Burns was making headway against Tester, the Polls were closing.
Then “Junior” this Fool went all the way up to St. Helena & Billings and stopped Burns Mojo.
I disagree, Tony. Unlike LZ, I don’t believe McCain has suddenjy had a conservative epiphany this Congress, but I do believe he will continue to vote as he is as long as Obama’s in the White House–if for no other reason than that he doesn’t like Obama.
The Mess we’re in it’s Juniors Fault. ALL and I mean ALL.
“Atlanta Newspaper says there is a grand Jury looking into him”
Is it a liberal rag like the Atlanta Constitution? Let’s wait until real facts show up before writing any obituaries.
wow, it seems as though the last day or so on HHR has been cycles where someone posts an over-the-top comment, others blast a response full of insults, and then the original poster throws the insults back, and then they go back and forth until someone has to get offline.
I guess I will stick to my new job with Paladin/CFP polls.
Wes, first You argue that politicians are beholden to their voters then you argue that they are beholden to their masters. Which is it?
Foley did a lot to stop Burns’ momentum too, Daniel. Burns had battled to a tie with Tester at that point. When the Foley revelation came out–find a way to blame that coverup on your so-called RINOs, Tony–that cost the GOP a chance to minimize losses in November and probably played a significant part in Burns’ loss.
A Prez McCain would have been worth it for one reason SCOTUS.
Maybe souter would have stayed on, but Stevens had to step down, and a McCain moderate choice is still better than Kagan. It would have been a pro life choice too
97– I don’t disagree, Wes. Whatever his reasons are for opposing Obama, I don’t care, as long as he keeps on opposing him. All EVIDENCE (a word that seems foreign to Tony) shows that he’ll continue to oppose Obama, as long as he’s President.
Tony, John McCain has never “screwed” me, so I’m not worried about it at all.
Notice one thing, folks: I’m having a spirited debate with Tony — but there’s no insulting and no vulgar name-calling. Too bad we can’t always do this!
118…Jason makes a good point. The GOP cannot afford to have 5 good candidates waiting in every race knowing that accusations, just accusations will wipe out four of them. Throwing our candidates under the bus at just the fear of accusations is only going to invite more of this sort of thing. We used to fight this (i.e. Clarence Thomas).
Wes, my point was that Burns should have not even run in 2006. A nervous GOP should have pushed him out for Rehberg.
Burns was doing the William Roth, Naps on TV routine
AND yeah George W. Bush should be exposed from the entire United States.
Different politicians act in diffefrent ways, Tony. Some go strictly with what their constituents advocate. Others toe their leadership’s line. Others do a mixture of the two. It depends on the politician. Nothing passes without the leadership’s support or allowance though. Why does it not surprise me you actually had to have that explained to you?
DW, well said. Every time a GOPer gets a whiff of trouble, many on the right want them to step down like Kirk.
Kirk is a screwup, but he is in a tossup and is raising huge $$$ as we speak.
with Deal it is different. We have a solid choice in Handel
Jason, what is so asinine about that statement. McCain would take democrat bills, tell them What they would need to do to earn his signature, and sign it regardless. Every bill every time.
118. Jason, the boys at Redstate too.
Then “Junior” this Fool went all the way up to St. Helena & Billings and stopped Burns Mojo.”
Pure unsubstantiated fantasy. Burns did close at the end but this “mojo was stopped by Bush” is garbage. I personally think it probably helped more than hurt, Burns only lost by 2500 votes, and from late returns from Indian reservations at that. But there is no real way of knowing if Bush’s visit hurt or helped. The fact is Burns did better than the latest polls indicated so there is nothing to indicate any momentum was stopped.
tony, I do not believe that. McCain is a lot of things, but not a Marxist.
You tend to forget that McCain has to work with the GOP congressional leadership if he is POTUS.
To be fai to Roth, Jason, he was actually alert and cogent during committee hearing when he chaired the Finance Committee. His downfall came when he fainted in front of cameras and fell against a building. Burns was taped multiple times sleeping during committee hearings. That was the beginning of the erosion of his support.
Bush’s popularity was in the mid-30s when he visited Montana, Jason. No, he wasn’t the deciding factor in Burns’ defeat, but there’s no way to logically argue it helped.
Tony, I respect your concern about Mac, but Wes is right.
McCain will not even be that relevant if we have a big election in 2010 anyways.
Whether we have 47 or 51 Senate Seats, he will have no room to make deals. And if we take the House, McCain will be a forgotten man
“Jason, what is so asinine about that statement. McCain would take democrat bills, tell them What they would need to do to earn his signature, and sign it regardless. Every bill every time.”
Baseless supposition that goes contrary to any reasonable analysis of McCain’s record, which overall is quite conservative throughout his career. The idea he would sign liberal Dem bills is absolutely unfounded.
to tell the truth, I have bigger problems trying to pull Republicans over the finish line here in IL, than worrying about McCain.
I agree, Jason. McCain would cave to the Dems on some issues, but the idea that he would be nothing but a rubberstamp for a Dem Congress is not an idea supported by his voting record.
I do not like McCain, because of his wimp approach towards Obama in 2008, not because of his Senate Record or votes
“Bush’s popularity was in the mid-30s when he visited Montana, Jason.”
That was a national average. Bush probably visited Republican leaning areas to get out the vote for Burns, and you can bet they were areas where he was over 30%.
In any event I can accept it might not have helped, but the idea it stopped Burn’s momentum is false.
anybody want to take a crack at ras numbers for nevada?
I say Reid 45 Angle 42
Wes, I meant to ask you of your assesment of Kirk?
finn, I would take that.
If she is down 3 in PPP though…she should be even in Ras or ahead by 1.
Maybe though Ras will tweak his sample to try to fall in line with MASON-DIXON
“Nathan Deal is toast. A federal grand jury is investigating him.”
This… from the same poster who bitterly, & repeatedly, complained that I once said Ensign was likely to be indicted (he probably still will be, btw) based on published reports of a really massive investigation by two separate federal grand juries.
When a prominent political figure is under criminal investigation, if there’s NOT going to be an indictment, the feds usually issue a simple statement when it’s over, i.e., “Our investigation is now completed, & no further action is contemplated.” There’s been no such statement regarding Ensign, as there was, eg., w/ Rove.
I have a mixed assessment, Jason. On the one hand, he’s raising money and hoarding it for the home stretch. On the other, he had a number of errors that, while not politically crippling, certainly blunted his momentum. I think he could have run a better campaign, but to his credit he seems to have weathered the worst of it. He’s the nominee though and would be much better than G-Man, so despite some reservations, I have to get in line behind him.
I have a mixed assessment, Jason. On the one hand, he’s raising money and hoarding it for the home stretch. On the other, he had a number of errors that, while not politically crippling, certainly blunted his momentum. I think he could have run a better campaign, but to his credit he seems to have weathered the worst of it. He’s the nominee though and would be much better than G-Man, so despite some reservations, I have to get in line behind him.
Baseless supposition that goes contrary to any reasonable analysis of McCain’s record, which overall is quite conservative throughout his career. The idea he would sign liberal Dem bills is absolutely unfounded.
Comment by jason — July 28, 2010 @ 11:41 am
You are DEAD RIGHT, Jason! But it doesn’t matter to Tony. He just hates McCain, so thus he abuses children, rapes nuns, collaborates with terrorists, deals with Democrats, or whatever silly baseless charge Tony can come up with. He’s not at all interested in a “reasonable analysis of McCain’s record” because that would destroy his belief that McCain is evil.
My own brother says, with conviction, that John McCain is a “child of Satan”. My brother is a disciple of Glenn Beck. Help me, as I don’t listen to Beck enough to know — is this what Beck is saying? Tony, are you a Beck disciple?
that was weird. The site went down, and when it came back up, my response to Jason was in the comments even though it previously had looked as if it had been eaten. Interesting.
Wes, all I can say about 127 is it’s a wasted effort. Some people just don’t get it.
Kirk has raised the money and will benefit from Brady running for Gov–Quinn with his tax increases will kill the democrat ticket–That’s strictly my opinion but Governors who raise the income tax during a recession will pay a political price.
Rasmussen will likely show Angle 46 Reid 41
Nevada Senate: Reid (D) 45%, Angle (R) 43%
OK, I was wrong.
145. Easy Eyeore troll. The boys at Redstate are all over Deal, at least I have sources that are not marxist like your bosses at Swingstate.
Are you on Alexi G’s payroll too?
I am going to leave for the rest of the day, so that the eeyores here can have full vent.
Wes, since you prefer to go the way of insults, I’m game. Obviously I’m talking about those politicians who vote against their constituents. McCain has a history. (Amnesty, taxes, etc)
Seems to me you’re trying to argue that politicians have no principles of their own and are solely governed by their surroundings.
The miracle of it all, is that in Illinois one of the bluest of all states we are actually talking about a Republican Governor candidate and a Republican Senate candidate as if they have something other than a snowball’s chance. Think about it, and it will tell you how far off centrist the Democrat Party has wandered.
DW, I will take it. A true within the MOE tossup with Reid at a lowly 45%
A multiterm Senator who is polling at 45%? Political term for that is “dead man walking”. I think he probably cant get to 45% in November either.
158…the 45 is has high as Reid has ever been in a Rasmussen poll. However, I doubt 45 is enough for him to win come November, but he clearly has closed the gap on Angle.
Further confirmation that Angle is down a couple of points. Hopefully she has stopped the bleeding. One would expect she would bounce back as the campaign deepens, but that is no sure thing given she was so unknown and Reid has done a job defining her.
#153. Ugh. That’s not good news. I’m not normally an eeyore and Reid’s numbers are still low, but Angle is plummeting.
Wes, how do you think the July polling looked for GOP Senate Candidates in 1980?
The majority leader is in a tossup after spending 20 Million already.
the nra will endorse reid & he will win.
Ron Paul is running strong in NH.
Assange: We don’t know source of leaked data
NV-SEN (Rasmussen)
Reid (D) 45 %
Angle (R) 43 %
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/toplines/toplines_nevada_senate_july_27_2010
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/election_2010_senate_balance_of_power
GM
great minds think alike-
I was just going to say that IL went 60% for Obama in 2008-
here’s another point–until Kirk & Brady lead in polls this year no GOP candidate had in any poll since 1998 in IL. That’s bluer then Rhode Island or MA or even VT. So IL has been super hard core democrat. For Kirk & Brady to be ahead or tied is like a democrat winning in Utah statewide or maybe Idaho.
The NRA will cease to be influential if that happens Jenny
Rdel, Republican Judy Baar Topinka won the Treasurer race in 2002, but you are right, it has been dog days here for the GOP
Palin needs to help Angle
Maybe Ensign will be indicted but the “payoff” charge is pretty bogus. Payoffs are not illegal unless under coercion or with illegal funds or public funds. Getting a good job or even giving money to the husband of the woman you are having an affair with is not a crime. The “structuring” charge is going to be hard to prosecute.
My view is if this was an easily prosecutable case Ensign would have been indicted long ago. But maybe they are waiting for an optimum moment to help Reid out. An October surprise.
135 Jason t. I’ll call that the post of the day. If we take over both house of Congress, McCain wont have that much power to wield his vote. Pray it happens.
I know You guys don’t have the concerns I do with McCain, but I just happen to see him as detrimental to the party, and therefore the country.
IL is a democratic state. the republicans don’t have a chance. ann coulter is right. the republicans are lying to themselves.
Palin can’t help angle. Palin’s strenght is in primaries, not in general elections.
Angle is a good unity candidate in terms of solidifying the base, which is the only real strategy to win in US politics.
170,
Jason T,
Palin should stay where she is. I agree with Diogenes. Palin can’t help Angle. She would even further alienate Moderates.
‘Outrage’ as Cameron Slams Gaza Blockade
175,
I completely disagree with you.
To win Elections you have to win the Center, the Independent Vote.
Jenny you are a eyeore
Tony, I try to have reasonable debates with you, but I lose patience after you start arguing everyone you don’t like is responsible for all the country’s problems while those you like are completely free of culpability. I can’t argue with that kind of asinine statement because of its utter vapidiity, so I have no qualms about expressing my contempt for it.
Jenny is the consumate eeyore.
aljazeera: Israel demolishes Bedouin village
Want Angle to win? Simply support her financially and praise her strengths and keep comments detrimental to her faults to yourself. (Many people peruse this blog and others like it and comments that aren’t helpful will turn people off toward her.) She’s gonna need every bit of support she can if she’s going to win.
To win, a politician needs to hold his/her base and then pick off a majority of voters in the middle. Reagan would have been slaughtered had he appealed strictly to conservatives. He peeled off moderates by pointing out the multiple national-security and economic faux pas of the Carter Administration. Four years later, he pointed out how well he had managed the economy and painted Mondale as a throwback to the failed policies of Carter. That he appealed to much broader swaths of voters gthan just base Republicans was apparent in his winning such left-wing bastions as Rhode Island, West Virginia, Hawaii, and Maryland.
In short, don’t do What I do to McCain.
I’ve contributed to Angle, Tony. Have you?
BIG PROBLEMS FOR CRIST
Charlie Crist’s Jim Greer payout
Gov. Charlie Crist has said he’s “disappointed” in his former hand-picked Republican Party chairman, Jim Greer, who faces fraud charges for allegedly bilking the state GOP. But sometime in the last campaign-finance quarter, Crist’s now-independent Senate campaign paid Greer $1,529.89 for “office equipment and furniture.”
Here’s how I look at the Reid-Angle poll: Having eviscerated Angle as an extremist and essentially had the airwaves uncontested with Angle making statements widely perceived as gaffes, Reid has gotten all the way to 45%. That’s John Corzine territory. We all know how well Corzine ultimately performed after adopting the exact same strategy Reid is employing now.
Not good for Weathervane Charlie, Marc.
Crist was unaware of where 20% of his campaign war chest went? Does he know where your tax money is going? What candidate on earth other than Charlie Crist would approve a $1.5 million payment FROM his campaign and not know what it was for? Why does Crist seem so beholding to Greer?
All of the optimism for Angle’s chances is legitimate. Reid being at 45% is very bad. The one thing that has me somewhat worried is the “None of the Above” option on the Nevada ballot. This means that Reid could win with only 47% or 48%.
I sent Angle money, but I’ll be damned if I’ll let anybody insist that I only post happy talk here. The hell w/ that.
And to hell w/ all the “eeyore” accusations too.
Question, Tony:
If you lived in Arizona (do you?), would you vote for McCain’s Democratic opponent in November? I ask this because you sound like you dislike him worse than you dislike the Democrats.
“Many people peruse this blog and others like it and comments that aren’t helpful will turn people off toward her.”
Oh please, so we can’t say something negative about Angle because then lurkers won’t vote for her??? I know we are very influential here at HHR but I am not taking the fall if Angle loses….
Look, even those who prefer we had another candidate are pretty clear that she is 1000 times better than Reid.
So lurkers, vote for Angle!!!!
Looking at the Nevada poll just makes me angry.
who in their right mind takes the time to drive to the polling place, wait in line, just to mark none of the above?
196. Remember PT Barnum….”nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people”
jenny apparently got an assignment to spew mindless drivel, as if that is going to influence anyone 100 days before an election. Shoo.
was it 1500 or 1.5MM? Big difference for the public and their perception of Crist. If 1.5 MM, Charlie got some ’splainin’ to do.