Ayotte Leads Hodes By 8%, Wyden Cruising in OR
We did get some late afternoon polling for a couple US Senate races. The University of New Hampshire put out a poll that shows Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Paul Hodes by 8%, larger than the 3% lead PPP was claiming in their poll yesterday.
US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH)
Kelly Ayotte (R) 45%
Paul Hodes (D) 37%Bill Binnie (R) 41%
Paul Hodes (D) 38%Paul Hodes (D) 39%
Jim Bender (R) 36%Paul Hodes (D) 42%
Ovide Lamontagne (R) 36%
This poll was done July 19-27 among 453 likely voters. Scott Rasmussen did release a US Senate poll for the state of Oregon.
US SENATE – OREGON (Rasmussen)
Ron Wyden (D-inc) 51%
Jim Huffman (R) 35%
This poll was done July 26th among 750 likely voters.
First…oh my…
new thread guys
damnit meant to post that in the other one..and who the hell is Mr Rection?
it sounds like “misdirection”…plant?
#2. Aren’t we on the new thread already?
#4 see #3 on #2
Is anyone here worried about kelly ayotte against paul hodes? The spin from PPP(D) was completely laughable, even to White House flak Marc Ambinder.
Seriously, I can understand people being worried about Paul, Angle, Rubio, etc…but Ayotte against Hodes? C’mon
I is confused.
Yeah I am counting on Ayotte keeping this seat.
#6
It calls all the recent scare polls, particularly California, into doubt now.
It seems they are just oozing an agenda now, and thats pretty pathetic.
STILL…If you average Rasmussen and PPP, CLOSER to the election date, you tend to be within 1-2 of the result… heres hoping Jensen sees the light after Labor day to avoid embarassment…
Owner of Sub shop in Edison NJ where
Obama visited today says he should
order a presidential sub with lots of
Baloney! They were not impressed
http://www.politickernj.com/obama-menu
Is Graham willing to prosecute Cindy Sheehan, the NYTiems and anti-war collogues?
Interesting handle for #1. Geez……
Graham would then have to prosecute our President and Secretary of State.
pretty sad when a university poll seems much more accurate then PPP??
Brandon,
I’ll predict that Quinnipiac will show Crist with a 7-point lead, continuing its left-leaning trend.
#15
who knows
it might show him with a 2-3 pt lead now.
Rubio has been hammering him, after all.
and with the BP spill calming down, free press is starting to evaporate.
Is it true that Ayotte now has some fairly stiff competition on the GOP side, from at least one of these guys?
Does anyone know the current situation in NH?
New DNC ad buy in 60 districts of
49 million $. Does anyone have the details. I do know they did not buy in the Adler- Runyan district.
#18 15 of them are Republican districts, probably to play a mind game. 45 are in Dem ones though, and thats the key- they know they are in deep doo-doo if they are ad buying in FOURTY FIVE of their own districts…
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/1-2-3-13.html
#18: Here’s the only list I could find of the targeted districts. As you see, most of the money is going to play defense.
i found the list here.Any surprises.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/40319.html
Tim,
Moderate millionaire Binnie was nipping at her heels but it seems Palin may have fixed that
Thanx, Jul…
An earlier poll found Ayotte at 47%–just this week-with a huge lead over all the GOP midgets facing her.
I tend to agree with Julstol that Palin was a big help for the primary
Ovide LaMontague was endorsed by all the conservative commentators like Laura Ingrahm, Red State I believe, etc. He is the one polling the worst against Hodes so of course that is who they support! Without Palin this could have been Sharon Angle all over again.
hey what about KY6—Chandler at 46%–three term incumbent –He won huge in 2008.
Danger–Danger Will Robinson indeed
FL 25 is Diaz-balarts district. He is retiring but its R +6 . Rubio should do well there as well. Looks like a big head fake there.
Well, if all the polling this year has been right, then it’s simple enough. The GOP nominates Ayotte, and they win. Right?
Anyone else here ENCOURAGED by Kirk’s numbers heading into August?
Hes down 2 but has climbed up since his bottom a few weeks ago. AND he now has a 4 to 1 cash advantage, and the Illinois news media now more focused on Blago and the defecit. I suspected they wanted to keep this race tight to sell newspapers but perhaps August/September we will see Kirk start pulling ahead.
What poll has Chandler at 46%? It would be huge if the GOP managed to retire him and Yarmouth this year.
NY23 situation in a nutshell
Hoffman 215K COH (finally he raised soemthing_
Dohoney (600K-some was his funds)
Doheny has lined up most of the GOP support but Hoffman claims teaparty support and has an internal poll with him leading by 32 points in the GOP primary.
Hoffman has the conservative line this Nov and vows to run -even if he loses the GOP primary.
I do not know if the poll is accurate or not. Hoffman apparently is a little more polished now and lives in the district.
So if dread uncertainty don’t do NY politics.
Is the same thing gonna happen in NY 23 again, rdelbov? It’s kinda looking eerily familiar.
Yes I am encouraged by Kirk’s numbers
Obama won by 60% in IL and Kirk is virtually tied.
If RAS poll is like some others the vast majority of undecideds are McCain and or moderate/conservative voters.
So moderate/conservative/McCain voters will decide between Kirk and AkexG/Quinn/Obama/Pelosi.
Top that off with the wave thoery of tsumani elections where undecideds break to drive a message home and to moderate it.
So while I am not thrilled with Kirk’s campaign to date -like Angle-I see a winning path for him.
My advice to Hoffman: Run better than last time. If he loses the GOP nod and then causes Owens to win reelection, any hope he has of ever holding office in his life is gone.
Sessions calls Kagan nomination “dangerous.”
Tim
the difference is that Doheny is a down the line conservative (except for abortion). I add that he harps that he has the same position on Abortion that Ric Lazio has.
Hoffman and the conservatives could-I said could-live with Doheny–he is no Scavafazo.
In addition if Hoffman wins the GOP primary there is unity.
So there is two paths to unity in NY23 and one path to division.
There is some weird stuff going in NY and predicting what will happen in NY1-NY13-NY23 is tough–I can’t hazard a guess.
The problem in NY-23 is that we are screwed no matter who wins the primary and gets the GOP line. Hoffman has the Conservative party line and Doheny has the Independence party line, so there will be vote splitting among Republicans in the general.
New York has such screwed up e;ectoral laws. People who have never lived in the state can move there one day and declare candidacy for office later that day. Candidates can appear on multiple party lines. Party bosses have nearl;y absolute control over the nominating process. It’s almost as if the mafia machines of the Prohibition Era still run thigns up there. Ay Dios Mio.
Sessions vs. the “masters of the universe” speech in which he urges his colleagues to scrap McCain-Kennedy and go back to the drawing board.
Funniest speech ever.
Brandon
I think Doheny gives up the indie line–great point and there is a rumour of even another line coming
All seperate lines in NY is gettin silly
Great point however to remember me again how complex NY politics is.
Hopefully they’ll prosecute you too bunu!
That’s so true, Wes. NY residency is a joke. Clinton and RFK exploited it. I remember when Bill Buckley ran for Mayor of NYC, and his brother for Senate. And, I think they both lived in Connecticut.
And, what everyone says about those ballot lines is true, as well. It’s a shame to split the vote like that, and cost one side or the other a race that they otherwise would win.
I know Blunt is not the best candidate but these people are trying to throw away another seat:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/40345.html
Oh and in regard to NV we had 2 candidates with around a 10 point lead. So our side decides to throw them to the wind and nominate someone who is now behind. Brilliant. If Reid wins it is our collective fault.
the tea party is being funded by george soros. he’s trying to destroy the republican party. the tea party is a joke! go matt blunt!
You must mean Roy Blunt.
I am done whining about Angle until after the election. I pray she is able to turn this around.
It’s not my fault. I did everything I could to try and convince people I knew in Nevada and sent money to both Lowden and the coach guy whose name I can’t even remember at the moment. The vote was split between the two more mainstream candidate and Angle won the kooky vote.
Things are getting too bad, many people are so angry, they are joining the tea-party as an anti-everything vote. Completely undisciplined, and like wes, full of hate for george bush too.
As I see it, the GOP isn’t quite there in party unity yet. Clinton saved mainstream candidates in the Dem party twice already. I only wish Palin would do the same and endorse the stronger candidate instead of throwing it around to help her own career. Didier was a really terrible endorsement.
Why is drudge now linking to infowars.com???
jenyy took her brain to the cleaners and it came back shrunk!
Julian Assange to go on Freedom Watch
The Judge landed an exclusive with the Founder of Wikileaks for his show Freedom Watch this weekend according Shepard Smith at 7 pm EST.
Jenny’s a consumate Eeyore, Gary. Her posts are staring to verge on the comical with their histrionics.
Diogenes-aisle 7 about eye level
#45:
George Soros? You are joking, right?
I can live w eeyores but jenny has no idea what she is talking about. Like chek only hysterical
ZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Boring thread topic…
Same Rino concern over NV.
You mean Chekote isn’t hysterical, Ad?
Clintune saved mainstream candidates twice already????
Useless point, I believe Blanched Nuts goes down to defeat in the mid term.
It appears that the Drats are doing better in many races based on the last several posts here.
Maybe, its conclusive proof of the indies moving the Drats.
I think that we’re in a mid-season mini-slump. We’ll snap out of it in a couple of weeks or so.
Well, the closest poll between Lincoln and Boozman has him up 25, Tina. I think it’s safe to say Boozman wins in November.
Fortunately, our competition sucks so much more than we do that we’ll probably actually win the House and get to 48-49 or so in the Senate.
Wes, you highlight what I wrote, so I am not sure how Clintune saves Blanched Nuts. He just further damaged Obumbler by doing this and divided the Drat Party.
If thing deteriorate further for the Dems, Marv, then both houses will flip. Noye: I AM NOT predicting the GOP wins Congress in November–at least not yet. It is, however, possible given current circumstances.
“Same Rino concern over NV.”
Ah yes, Angle blew her lead and is now behind in EVERY poll but to be concerned about that means you are a RINO.
61 I agree better to lose a little momentum now and build it up around labor
day. Once again, most people are not paying any attention now. It is summer and vacation time. We do need $ , that is
the biggest problem I see. That is the other sides biggest advantage. Business is not putting up the $.
A young Christian girl is suing a Georgia college for their decision that she must change her position on homosexuality as a “choice” if she wishes to stay in the Master’s program to become a teen guidance counselor. Ordinarily I’d side with the student, but this time I must admit I’m with the school all the way. If the Master’s candidate’s position is that homosexuality is a choice, then that would definitely color interaction with gay students. The school’s absolutely right on this.
Interesting video posted at Hot Air…a clip showing Chris Matthews comments on the AZ ruling. He didn’t seem all that happy about it, reasoning that it will only help the right in the midterms by amping more anger towards the dems for interferring with Arizona’s immigration problems.
Change of direction. Apparently IKEA hosts an annual Swedish Crayfish festival. Who knew?
jason like the guy at NRO is concerned about Angle
Upper Big Branch Mine in West Virginia will reopen in a few months. I’m not exactly sure how that will play out.
Amazing. We have not lost any momentum. This has become the voyage of the clueless.
I’d be lying if I said I weren’t concerned about the direction Angle is taking her campaign in, Rdel; nonetheless, she’s still competitive with Reid. There’s no need to panic and overreact.
Was down in DC last night & this morning. Went to a good fundraiser for Tim Scott, the black GOP soon-to-be congressmen from SC. Came across as a solid guy.
This morning, talked with 2 Texas GOP congressmen who are pretty confident that we take out Edwards in TX-17. Then at Grover Norquists’s meeting heard about a half-dozen congressional challengers: the guy vs. Chandler in KY-6 was top-notch & claimed that polling as him doing well. Candidate in CA vs. McNerney also excellent & again said polls show him running strong. The others were all longer shots.
Finally, had lunch with a guy who is trying to round up indep. expenditure money to throw into some close Cong races in October; thinks he can raise at least several hundred thou.
Altogether a pretty promising set of conversations. The general feeling from the people who have been most accurate in the past is anything from a narrow majority to a blowout–no one was worried about not getting at least 40 in the House.
#72
We had multiple candidates stumble. Angle and Kirk.
But in the same period weve got Rossi riding high, Johnson making waves in Wisconsin, Both CO GOP candidates ahead by at least 6 in that race, Toomey holding his own, PORTMAN making waves, Rubio back on top in a GOP poll, and Missouri slowly tilting to Blunt.
Not to mention Ayotte will LIKELY win and is a strong contender for holding New Hampshire.
A demotion for Nancy Pelosi? Part one
H/T Power Line
The beauty of the teaparty movement is that is a massive grassroots movement that has energized many people–it will be a huge plus for the GOP
The downside of the teaparty movement is that there are some oddballs who claim to be teaparty leaders or candidates who will delight the left/the MSM. for the most part these charactors will amount to nothing
Of course todays ruling helped us. Especially in nv. I feel like the little dutch boy putting my finger in the kagan.
I agree with Matthews, Jan. Speaking of Arizona, looking at Jan Brewer, I get the idea that she was a very beautiful woman when she was younger.
Jim B —> your post was encouraging.
Are you in a competitive district, Jan? By the way, I’ve donated almost $1000 to Carly and will keep donating till I hit the max if I must. She simply MUST take out Babs.
Wes, Brewer probably was quite striking as a younger woman. However, her grit and tenacity are even more attractive at this stage of life. She comes across as strong and confident in herself.
Oh, I completely agree, Jan. She has two things I greatly admire in a woman: competence and intelligence. Without those, even the most beautiful woman in the world is worthless.
#81
Im working as an indy contractor now for registering voters here in cali, wes. Weve registered over 100k new voters this year.
Well, I’m in CA. But, Waxman is my representative in Congress. So, I would say the answer is, “No” to being competitive.
Thanks for your donation to Carly. I was thinking about sending her some money today, myself, as it would be momumental to wave goodbye to Boxer.
#85 Meg should just use a third party thing a la Obama and Acorn and donate 1/10th of ebay…i think that would make up for her previous endorsement of boxer.
could you imagine if Fiorina had a good $50 million wallop to Boxer?
Jan whats your feelings on where Carly is?
i think shes maybe 2-3pts behind, keeping things close…
Keep up the good work, Finn. I’ve donated more to carly than to my own state’s Ruchard Burr–largely because Burr is well funded and isn’t in nearly as tight a race as Carly. Don’t worry, guys and gals, I’ve donated to Sharron Angle too. I just want Babs to go down, so I make sure to keep the money flowing Carly’s way.
#83 —> I agree, and even feel that way about my girlfriends. There’s nothing more boring than talking about nail polish and shopping 24/7. I’ve always enjoyed conversations generous in their humor and/or knowledge.
Can you please refer to her as Senator? She worked really hard to get that title, you know.
Carly has a huge personal fortune herself though. I hope she’s willing to use it at some point in the campaign. I think she will be.
Hilarious, Brandon.
Jason, STFU. When I ask you something, you can give an answer. Do not meddle like you did yesterday.
Jan, I have no representative here, I will adopt Paul Ryan, as I have adopted Senators.
What the hell, Tina?
#87
I think in one of the latest poll Fiorina was behind, within the margin of error. However, I’ve also seen polls where she has been up by the same number. Basically it is close, but I think she has a good chance of winning, as Boxer is increasingly seen as inept and dumb.
Tina,
I’m with you on Paul Ryan! I’m so impressed with how that man conducts himself. He was interviewed on the Chris Matthews show, and came off with so much clarity — totally aced the interview!
Theone and only–keep registering the right type of people in CA??
Maybe I need new friends but everyone from CA is fired up to ditch the democrats.
I predict a Carly F-Meg switch.
its the turnout mix and the CC valley water situation
He took offense to the same Rino concerns about NV. If Candidate X had beaten right wing nut Angle, that Candidate X would be up by 10.
This site sucks, Wes.
Its freaking July and most people are not paying attention.
If Angle is down in October, let me know.
carly and Meg need to coordinate to get as many Republicans to the polls as possible, Jan. I have Carly’s website bookmarked. She’s barnstorming the hell out of the state. If she loses–please, God, no!–then it won;t be for lack of hard work.
I adopted Senator Sesssions and Thune too, Jan… It sucks really not having any representation…
There are too many eeyores on here, Tina. It comes with the territory though. I remember we had a lot of pollyannas at this time in 2008 too.
Carly and Fiorina may be down a few points, or up… Who knows. At this point the race is very competitive, when in most years it would not be.
93. Sorry Tina you don’t get to choose what I comment on. You want to make the statement I am free to comment on it. If you don’t like it feel free to ignore it.
Carly and Fiorina, Tina? Do you mean Carly Fiorina or Carly and Whitman?
Wes I have to say that I don’t like a taxpayer funded university forcing a student to adopt certain moral/religious/political beliefs. This issue is/will not be the only issue where liberal school force students to have certain beliefs. I am not even one who cares about the gay issue one way or the other.
Wes if you really want to get a bang for your buck donate to hillary 12. Run hill run!
Whitman sorry, I just got off of work, Wes. Worked a 13 hour shift.
Look deeper at the issue, Ac. They’re telling her she’s not the best candidate for the program if she automatically brings an unfounded bias against some students she will have to counsel. She has a right to participate in any other program at the school. Her religious beliefs though prevent a legitimate conflict of interest with her ability to perform her hoped-for job if she completes the program. For that reason, i wholeheartedly support the school’s decision.
I will never donate money to a Dem, Ad. I doubt Hillary would be stupid enough to challenge Obama in 2012 anyway.
“I remember we had a lot of pollyannas at this time in 2008 too.”
In that case, I am hoping history does not repeat itself.
Wes I think it is political correctness gone mad. Next they will say that if she is pro-life she can’t graduate because she won’t refer for abortions.
She can refer gays to someone else
It’s intellectual Nazism
Believe what we tell you to believe or you’re thrown out of school…???
Or try to force doctors to perform abortions…
Wes
in 2004 when Reagan stumbled at the 1st Mondale debate instead of manning the lifeboats–we burned the fleet in the harbor as there was no retreat and there was no alternative to victory.
That being said this is a political site and if folks want to express an opinion of gloom–they are welcome to it. Okay gloom is not the right word.
We got about 15 to 17 competitive senate seats (NH-PA-NC-FL-CT-WV-KY-OH-IN-IL-LA-WI-OH-MO-AR-CO-NV-CA-DE-ND-WA) among the 21 seats that we are really fighting for this year. Are we going to win all 21? Some can spectulate on losses without being gloomhounds
I am a sunny optimist–perhaps its my huge RINO nose as it gives me such an ego boost.
I think respective back and forth is fine. I mix it up with Howard dean and Tina but they among my favorites. I agree with them on policy 100% of the time but on tactics/strategy not always.
Can I help that I am the Rodney King of this site??
I disagree, Ac. There’s a difference between not referring for abortions and harboring a belief that people bring their problems on themselves because they “choose” to be gay. Seriously, Ac, could you look at a picgture of Rachelle Leah and decide, “I don’t like what I see. I’m going to go sleep with another guy”? It’s just not going to happen.
I agree, Rdel.
“He took offense to the same Rino concerns about NV. If Candidate X had beaten right wing nut Angle, that Candidate X would be up by 10.”
I never said Angle was a right wing nut, never. And if you read my posts, I have been very positive on her campaign since the nomination, and defended her from attacks about gaffes, etc.
And I think I said Lowden would be up by 15, not 10…
But since you worked a 13 hours shift such small distortions are understandable.
If Lowden is such a great candidate, why did she lose…?
Why didn’t she or Tarkanian withdraw so that the anti-Angle vote wasn’t split…???
Wes watch carville and her other pitbulls are already creating daylight to set her up.
Reid has no chance in this environment
Angle will win by >4pts folks. This is just a rough patch right now. The real action begins after Labor Day, right now we’re in the exhibition season.
Lowden could be down even greater, she ran a horrible campaign, after being up 20+ points. You want to coronate candidates without having the folks decide the nominee.
Gin and tonic works pretty well after a 13 hour duty day, Tina.
Tark may have been the “best” candidate but, he did not win the primary either. We are way past wishing for Candidate X or Y to be challenging Reid.
Marv is correct, this race will be won by low single digits. Reid is not going down without a fight. BTW, as NRO-Klo indicates, Angle is raiising a ton of $$$ and she has just purchased a $500k ad buy.
Tea Party showed up for the primaries, Tea Party won, that’s the way it works
Even though Rand is problematic and Angle may be problematic, the Tea Party has been a blessing to us this year, we are MUCH the better for them…
13 hours, and only 10 minues for lunch, Marv. Sucks.
This may be a first, but Bunu actually posted a good link:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/111413-graham-prosecute-wikileaks
I know that many of you (mnw, Brutus) have called for some kind of prosecution of the traitors who posted the Wikileaks secret documents — leaks that have been incredibly harmful to our troops and our military efforts. In this article, Senators Lindsey Graham, John McCain, and Rep.Peter King are calling for the prosecution of Wikileaks. McCain says they should get a life sentence.
Of course Bunu is counting on the McCain and Graham-haters here to stick to form and even criticize them for this. How ’bout it, guys? Show Bunu that on this one, Graham and McCain have gotten it right! Agreed?
Lowden was the establishment R party candidate with a lot of flaws… These flaws cost her in the end.
Who cares what Starship Bubu writes. I ignore his posts, and folks should do the same.
For all the Angle Eeyores, Daschle was up by a couple of points over Thune at this point in 2004. How’d that work out for Daschle?
I am all for Bunu getting life sentence.
Tina, I noticed yesterday you said Jane Norton would lose because she’s the establishment candidate in Colorado. Well, Ken Buck is the one who’s imploding while Norton is ramping up her campaign. That works both ways.
I don’t think Angle is nearly on the same level as Thune though.
If Lowden is such a great candidate, why did she lose…?
Comment by MFG — July 28, 2010 @ 9:43 pm
Actually, Wes has answered this one many times. She was not only fighting against her two primary opponents, but also against Harry Reid and the liberal MSM machine. Lowden was targeted very early as the candidate Reid least wanted to face. He got his wish.
I see the Angle biters are out tonight.
You’re right, Brandon. Thune wasn’t running against a gaffe-prone opponent underwater by double digits in terms of popularity.
Wes,
I see that the NCAA is investigating UNC. What did they do?
Harry Reid supports the Obama lawsuit against Arizona.
Treason should be the charge for the wikiscum. And if guilty let the chips fall. The left is pickled here. You know the leakers were not semper fi guys.
133– Tina, who cares who the “establishment” candidate is? I can’t figure out why that is important. Sometimes the establishment candidate is the better choice, when the alternative (ie, Buck, Didler) is a complete novice who is nearly certain to blow a great opportunity.
Wes, she will win the General, if she gets passed the primary is what I wrote.
I remember how thrilled Jimmy Carter was at facing Ronald Reagan in 1980, the “extremist” candidate who “couldn’t win”
Thune had a 56% favorable rating in Rasmussen’s last poll of the race which was greater than Daschle’s 52%. Angle currently has a 43% favorable rating in Rasmussens poll and her favorable rating is actually lower than Reid who is at 44%.
Thune was popular. Angle is not at the moment.
Marv, I hope so. Harry should sing from the mountains on this ruling
Here’s what I was able to find about it, Marv:
http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2010/07/19/report-ncaa-probe-on-unc-involves-marvin-austin/
Lowden would be just where Angle is now in the polling
The Communists demonize our candidates and we agree with them
When the Communists run psychopaths (Al Franken, for ex) all the Communists get in line behind their candidate
Why can’t we…???
As your number shows, Daschle was popular, Reid is not.
Daschle was popular too, brandon. reid is not. We can go ’round and ’round all night like this if you like.
Thanks, Sam.
#148. Nice job completely missing the point. But then again any lamp post is going to win anyway, of course.
So our plan is to beat Reid by having a candidate be more unpopular than him? How the hell does that work?
Angle won
Get over it
J***s
To give you an analogy that should resonate with you, Brandon: I’m willing to bet Christie wasn’t exactly the most popular man in New Jersey when Corzine spent $60 million+ calling him everything but a child of God. How’d that work out for Corzine in the end?
Ever heard of MOE, Brandon? As our resident poll analyst, you should have. A 44-43 split deifnitely falls into that category.
Another way to look at it is:
“48% of the state’s voters have a Very Unfavorable view of Reid. Forty-one percent (41%) say the same of Angle.”
So it seems 48% will never vote for Reid. Not much MOE for him.
Angle is any lamp-post, and she will win.
Tina, I don’t agree with “the best candidate always wins” theory you are using against Lowden. If that was true we wouldn’t have so many Democrats in office.
As others have pointed out, Reid saw her as his most dangerous adversary and spent a lot of money attacking her. In addition the Bunus and Paulbots hated her for denying the Paulbots the right to appoint all the convention delegates when Ron Paul only got 15% of the primary vote. Finally she and Tarkanian split the vote among those who didn’t think Angle was the best candidate.
But Sue Lowden is not the nominee and while I have serious reservations about Angle as a candidate and I have made clear she needs to win and she is infinitely better than Reid.
I don’t share the rosy views here that all the polls on NV are wrong. Sure, October is more important than July, but this is a poll driven blog and we comment on the polls we have now.
I wish all the Nevada polls were wrong, Jason. Unfortunately their consistency probably means they’re all right–for the moment. That said, Angle is still competitive despite withering attacks by Reid and Co. That bodes well for her.
#154. That is true. However, he always had higher favorable ratings than Corzine. Angle’s numbers are going down at the moment, so they could possibly get even worse.
By definition, a good candidate wins
Lowden was not a good candidate
Reminds me of these Minnesota Vikings fans, “If we hadn’t fumbled five times we would have beaten the Saints because we had the better team.”
Well, fumbling five times means you don’t have the better team in and of itself
“A member of the Senate since 1987, Reid was elected with 61% of the vote in 2004.”
So, a 4-term majority leader who won 2-to-1 the last time out, and who has spent $10-20m already, cannot break 45% against a lamp-post?
Great position to be in, I am sure.
#153. I don’t care that Angle won. I would have the same concerns if Lowden or Tarkanian blew a 10 point lead after the primary.
They could also improve, Brandon.
Wes
I agree with you-100%
not sure about what but I like the sound of that
Reid has no path to 50%
Why would undecideds break for him?
In this environment…???
Pfffffffffftttttttttttttt
People were saying the same thing earlier except it was “Reid cannot break 39%”. And now here he is at 45%. Pretty soon it will be “Reid cannot break 49%”.
So what does Huffman need to do to pull out a win? Wyden being at 50% or so means there is a sliver of hope.
Could be Huffman is just too much of an unknown?
MFG, Al Salvi won the GOP Senate primary in 1996 by running a scorched-earth campaign. He promptly went on to run consistently behind the Personification of Evil Itself, Dick Durbin, and lose as soon as polls closed on Election Night by a 41-56 margin. Was Salvi a good candidate since he won?
In this environment?
14% unemployment?
Economy slowing?
Communists tanking all over the country?
Bullshit
I don’t believe for one moment Reid will win
If you’re referring to 164, Rdel, then I was referring to Sharron Angle’s polling numbers.
All the indies must be breaking for Reid…
LOL
Santorum huddles with former aides to talk 2012
Why such angst about this poll?
Does anyone even know what turnout model Ras is using?
He was better than his opponent(s) in the primary, by definition, because he won
Santorum, great
Just what we need for 2012
Maybe he can run with Alan Keyes
I’m fine with Santorum running. Maybe he’ll take a few votes from huckster.
I still think we go +11 and if the economy begins to dramatically slow, we could do even better
I’m not sure winning with a minority of the vote in a primary because of a systematic effort to demonize all opponents as left-wing ideologues really means Salvi was a better candidate than his opponents, MFG. Just throwing that out there.
Would his opponent have done any better?
I’m very leery of “the better candidate lost the primary” type of reasoning
Santorum running in 2012? What a joke. Hey, Ricky, didn;t you learn anything from an 18-point loss to an emptty suit after you spent $43 million dollars?
Reid still has a path to victory. Some third party shennanigans would give him a shot. Lowden really shot herself in the foot and at the wrong time. I’m not saying she was stellar but she had much lower downside as a well-known state-wide GOP face. Reid’s ability to define her was much lower + she is rich and could easily match Reid tit-for-tat.
Angle has ok fundraising, but she’s wasted most of it on attack ads when she really needed to define herself. Reid will still outspend her 3-1, maybe 4-1, though much of it was before the primary directed at Lowden.
I’m sure Angle has over a 50% chance to win this, but she takes away so many resources from other states and I feel like an idiot having to defend her. And Tark or Lowden would’ve made this seat esaier to defend in 2016 which would be a presidential year as well, when Nevada will have at least 5%+ more hispanics.
Nothing in Angle’s repertoire shows me she knows a damn about retail politics or campaigning.
And his “man on dog” comments were priceless
How do you lose by 18 as an incumbent…???
I wonder if Santorum’s campaign will end up doing better than Chris Dodd’s presidential campaign.
Kustra was up over Durbin in polls at the time, MFG. He was well known and well financed. Salvi rallied social consrrvatives with the bogeyman that Kustra wasn’t conservative enough for them though. Apparently they weren;t nearly enough to get him across the finish line since Durbin walloped him in November.
I could certainly be wrong but if I were Angle I’d go massive negative on 14% unemployment Harry, I’d pound him 24/7 on Obama’s failures and hang Nancy Pelosi around his neck like an albatross
“Where are the jobs, Harry?”
“Where????????”
To an empty suit who scarcely campaigned no less, MFG. Not that I’m upset, mind you. After the Terri Schiavo Debacle, I actually thought Santorum deserved to lose.
I’ve had enough of the anti-Angle plants here.
Bye.
Santorum is a prime example of why most politicians don’t engage in name calling in most cases. All it does it enrage the other side.
“You’ve been on the job for 24 years Harry, and our state is in RUINS!!”
Night, Tina.
I have nothing against Santorum personally, we probably share a lot of the same views, but he ran a terrible campaign and would be a ghastly 2012 nominee
The liberals will be butt screwing animals if this bill passes as his argument.
What is a plant?
Reid won’t break 45%. Its one thing for RAS to determine his RDI breakdown for NV and start making phone calls based on that breakdown.
Its quite another thing to determine what the enthusiasm factor is or could be.
Any thoughts from you polling/stat guys?
Santorum lost me when he went all George Orwell on the social issues, MFG. The Terri Schiavo Debacle was the most grievous example, but diagramming a woman’s vaginal canal on the Senate floor and saying gays should be allowed to be gay as long as they don’t do whatever they do was just a bit too reminiscent of 1984, He deserved it when Casey handed his ass to him.
Woof!
I agreed with him on Terry Schiavo
I thought her husband was an asshole who murdered her for money and I thought it was a noble thing to try to save her life
Plus, all these polls are rough estimations at this time anyway. Nobody knows what DRI model Ras is currently using. I would bet $100 he is still using 2008 turnout
Heck, Ras had Martha Coakley leading by 2 a week from the election in January.
Santorum’s an idiot, MFG.
Rasmussen doesn’t weight his state polls by party ID though, so his polling would pick up on enthusiasm, in my opinion.
+11
My 202 is in response to 196.
That is another reason his state polls are so erratic.
It just wasn’t the right time or place for Santorum. PA was the wrong venue for his style of politics. Imagine him in FL or VA.
MFG, Terri Schiavo had a 2/3 liquefied brain. Whatever was left of her was more likely screaming, “Let me out!” than anything else. Besides, it was a clear overreach by the federal government opposed by a huge majority of the American people–as well as a breach of the Constitution. Washington has no right to determine people’s medical care. You thought that in the case of Obamacare. Why didn’t you think that in the Schiavo case?
Santorum would have won in LA by 20 points
It’s why the anti-RINO stuff leaves me so cold
In so many ways we are 50 different COUNTRIES; tremendously different in what we’ll tolerate politically
Are there any pollsters that now weight state polls by party ID? I’m not sure if there is.
Santorum will want to make it personal with the left. Now, he seems to want to intentionally piss them off because he’s mad at what they have said about him in the past.
If it was an overreach it was a noble overreach
Compare that overreach with everything the Communists do
Probably not, but there`are some who give their DRI breakout of every state poll.
Then you can apply your own estimate of what turnout will look like.
So when you support it, Washington has the right to determine people’s healthcare, MDF? That seems to be what I’m supposed to infer from your statements.
I’m also pretty sure Louisianans wouldn’t have been too thrilled when Santorum did the whole vaginal diagram thing on the Senate floor, MFG. Some things just go too far regardless of what state a Senator hails from.
I’m so sick of talking about Angle. I’m all Angled out. The fact that we talk about her campaign so much on her is very discouraging. Our candidates who run good campaigns don’t half has much attention.
Kelly Ayotte is a great candidate and even the push polling by PPP couldn’t move the dial that much against her. When she wins I would nominate her for being the best candidate of 2010 cycle.
I hate that Rasmussen doesn’t give that breakdown(not even to Platinum subscribers). It’s really annoying.
RAS has to have some kind of RDI breakdown, I would think. I cant believe its based on enthusisasm.
Pick up the phone and call a hundred random phone numbers in NV and I’d bet its 75-25 against Reid.
I’m assuming that’s not the Democrat Tim.
Her husband murdered her for money
The parents would have been willing to care for her
Your wife is not your PROPERTY, but a human being with rights and dignity
I thought Schiavo’s civil rights were violated and the attempt to save her was a noble undertaking
Why not John Hoeven, Tim, or the lovely and gracious Kristi Noem?
2/3 liquefied brain, MFG. Translation: She was already dead. How were her civil rights violated?
Anyone else like Lucinda Williams?
Chandler up 46-32.
http://politics.mycn2.com/2010/07/28/ben-chandler-starts-with-double-digit-lead-over-andy-barr-but-21-undecided-cn2-poll-shows/
Brandon,
Ras isn’t a lone wolf in that regard.
We’ll never agree on this Wes
Angle is not al salvi. The analogy doesn’t even make sense. Is nv illinois. Is there an incumbent pres on the ticket who is popular in the state? Reid is the issue people. There is no other issue.
Where PPP(D) failed in its New Hampshire poll was not polling about Palin’s endorsement but not also polling Obama’s endorsement.
It’s not accurate to call it a push poll. Also, Jensen claims the questions about endorsements were all asked after the head-to-head. Even though Jensen is a Democrat and is predisposed to lying, I don’t think he’s lying.
#224. Which other major firms don’t do it? I don’t think Quinnipiac gives it(though they might if you e-mail them). Not sure about any of the smaller firms.
#216: Exactly. That is one of the reasons, among others, I always take Ras’s state polls with a dose of skepticism.
Topline numbers are so susceptible to the DRI model used. I suspect Ras uses the DRI from the last statewide election.
That is how he screwed up MA senate race in January.
(That said, his national numbers are golden, because he aggregates these 1-day, 500-sample state polls to generate a low-variability national sample.)
How is a direct violation of the Constitution a noble undertaking, MFG? It was an attempt by people obsessed with power use Washington to give themselves control over others. Terri Schiavo was nothing more than a shell at that time. Washington should have stayed out of it. The State of Florida could have gotten involved al it wanted–though I would have counseled against that as well. You yourself were lamenting about how Washington ignores the will of the people today. Wel, the overwhelming will of the people back then was that Washington needed to stay the hell out of the issue. Why do you support the will of the American people on the border issue but oppose it when they say Washington shouldn’t have the power to control decisions about their medical care?
#228,
CNN/Opinion Research
Hoeven doesn’t really have a race so I wouldn’t compare it to Ayotte.
You’re right, MFG. We won’t. Thus, let’s move on.
Also, Economist/YouGov is actually pretty good. I recall you saying that we can trash it because it’s an internet poll. But its record and methodology is nothing like jokes such as zogby or harris.
None of the numbers it has found are outliers, though its partisan split suggests that it’s a little too Democrat friendly.
Santorum was on the side of the angels with his support for Schiavo and her parents. It hurt him politically, for sure.
So how do you explain PPP showing the race closer then a poll by the UNH taking at the same time Tommy?
Also PPP has the 2010 turnout more Democrat then it was in 2008?
Hmmmm…According to Drudge, 20% of Californians say they need mental health care.
That seem shockingly low to anyone else?
He doesn’t have a race, Tim, because the sitting Dem senator took a look at the polls and got the hell out rather than lose to him. What about Kristi Noem? She has a damn good shot at taking down a seemingly invincible juggernaut this year.
Anybody care to answer my earier question re Huffman? Any way he pulls out a win?
It seems VERY low to me, Yolanda.
I’m still not sold than internet polls have sound scientific methodology. I just don’t see how you can get a random sample using a self-selecting survey methodology. I would have to see a longer track record before I can give them any credence.
Question for anyone from Georgia…is the Augusta Chronicle a right-leaning newspaper?
I think the Chandler poll is decent news as that seat is not one of the first 40 we would win anyway.
Yolanda, do you write jokes for a living? You should. You have some of the best one-liners.
Ad, I think you missed my point. I wasn’t comparing Angle and Salvi. I was talking about MFG’s contention that the best candidate always wins. That’s just not the case. I’ve actually been supportive of Angle, and Salvi is the last person I’d compare her to.
Chandler is around 100 in my ranking of vulnerable incumbents.
If it becomes available, it is gravy.
RAS is a Democrat, right? RAS is probably the most respected pollster, right?
No he is not a Democrat. And I’m not a huge fan of his polling on the statewide level.
Jeff Sessions has the best speeches in the universe because he’s always pissed off at whatever the dems and r’s are doing.
Ras is very good at national polls. His tracking polls during presidential years are great.
I don’t think Rasmussen is deliberately biased.
I just think that his 1-day, 500-sample state polls have large MOE because of their nature.
Back to Angle, the fact that nearly 60% of nevadans think she’s an extremist and she’s still within 2 is all you need to know.
If that number is equal to Reids by the end of this election, Angle will have won comftorably.
Watch for Sharron to destroy this tool in a debate. Neither Tark nor Lowden could hange with her. i doubt reid could.
I think Chandler and Boucher fall in the same boat. Both well known and seeming well liked in their respective, coal-based regions. Both seemingly up by about 10 to 15 points right now. Both vulnerable to a strong challenger, a strong campaign and a national wave. If we win either seat we are on our way to 60 to 80 seats, but it is good to see fairly close races at this time.
incumbency in a year like 2010 where 11% of people have a high opinion of congress might not be an advantage.
Even folks like Taylor-Matheson-Skelton-Boucher-Boren with fairly conservative records might be in trouble.
I don’t count anyone in or anyone out.
Do you know how hard it is to have personal contact with 200K voters?
At plus ten RAS there are going to be some strange upsets.
Mind you a few fish will get away from there will be upsets.
“How were her civil rights violated?”
because she did not leave a written statement saying she wished to be starved to death
thus allowing her husband to kill her and cash in,
instead of having to divorce her, in which case her money would have gone to her parents.
the federal government is the last court of appeals for all citizens in all cases on any level, even at the local level. ANY case, even the smallest traffic violation can eventually be appealed to the feds …
the schaivo’s had every right to appeal to the feds, they simply lost
199…Well said, MFG.
Look for polls from like KY6-VA9-ME1-CT4-MA3-NJ12-GA3-MS4-TN4-OH13-MI9 and many other second tier seats.
incumbents under 50 without challengers not well known–MN1-WI3-MO3-OK1-CO3
among others. If the cracks start appearing in these seats–If you see a united GOP party with huge teaparty support just watch out. 500 volunteers working six weeks can be worth a million bucks.
I say watch out Nevada when you get the largest teaparty group-per capita working for Angle. A couple thousand motivated people in a small state like Nevada-think the Amway pyramid with 500 people selling Amway.
With that thought goodnight
Rd is correct. Angle has the grass roots. Its funny the same nervous nellies who rip on kirk as a rino, which he is don’t like angle. Too pure.
Wtf
also, going back to the original argument,
homosexual relationships are a choice, and there is thousands of years of empirical evidence to back this up.
lots of people who normally are heterosexual choose to have homosexual relationships for various reasons, especially when it is socially acceptable.
in our society it is simply less acceptable for men than women at the present time. that was not always the case in the west, and it certainly is not the case in the east.
I’d rather be in Angle’s position than Reid’s . His topline numbers require a lot to move while hers can move simply by being mediocre.
195. What is a plant?
On this blog it means anyone who dare suggest that the most conservative candidate might not always be the best candidate for the general election
Freely substituted by RINO.
there are many different groups within the republican party … and much to the horror many republicans …
they found out they cannot win without the social cons of the party
and
they are afraid that much of their work getting socially liberal/moderate republicans into the party leadership will be undone by the 2010 elections
however, 2010 will see a dramatic shift right in the party.
Oh my Gosh!!! It’s a new RINO:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/unleashed/2009/05/baby-eastern-black-rhinoceros-at-englands-chester-zoo.html
unless things change, rinos could become extremely rare and perhaps extinct after this fall
basically the libertarians will have to decide what they hate more
belief in god
or
an oppressive government where a few elites and an underclass soak the middle class with high taxes in order to keep people from accumulating wealth and joining the elites without their approval.
dnc helps the tea party hurt republicans. headline:msnbc news!
PPIC
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_710MBS.pdf
Boxer 39
Fiorina 34
Brown 37
Whitman 34
PPIC finds Boxer at THIRTY NINE PERCENT to thirtyfour for Fiorina with 21% undecided?
Yeah, Boxer is, like, TOTALLY surging here. all hail PPP…
/sarcasm
California Generic Ballot
Field poll January- 50 D 32 R
Field poll July- 44D 41R
Republicans made a gain of 9 and Democrats made a loss of 6 in 6 months.
I have a bit more faith in Field, PPIC, and Survey USA because CA is so hard to poll.
If Field showed a MASSIVE shift in support to the GOP in the first 6 months of the year, Boxer isn’t
surging out of the blue. Its either bad data or pushpolling. Fio hasnt done anything to screw up (like Angle or Kirk) since June 6th
yeah, the dnc has helped the tea party hurt the gop so much that they are on the verge of losing the house, and what should be safe dem senate seats are in play!!!
there is a split in the dem party between establishment dems and the kossians and the dnc will not be sorry to see some kossians go down.
Oregon(SurveyUSA)
Governor
Dudley(R): 46%
Kitzhaber(D): 44%
Senate
Wyden(D-Inc): 53%
Huffman(R): 35%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5f112e4a-ccef-4f09-b242-108729f2c5ff
Florida Primaries(Quinnipiac)
Republican
Scott: 43%
McCollum: 32%
Democrat
Greene: 33%
Meek: 23%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1481
Man, Greene winning is very dangerous for Rubio. Also, I thought McCollum had this in the bag before? I thought leading the charge against Obamacare was really popular in Florida? As it is, it doesn’t look like the top of the ticket will help Rubio much.
Thanks Finn for the CAL numbers
Brandon no offense, but you are a great numbers guy and linker, but since you are a big supporter of PPP and Quinnipac, why should we worry about your Anti Angle platform?
Scott is spending McCollum under the table. Greene is doing the same to Meek. Money does talk.
Dio, McCoolim is a awful campaigner, as he blew the 2000 Senate Race too.
I want Greene to win, it will keep the blacks home in November.
Quiinipac is awful too, junk poll
“but since you are a big supporter of PPP and Quinnipac,”
Not true.
“why should we worry about your Anti Angle platform?”
It’s not “anti-Angle.” I don’t care that it is Sharron Angle. I care that a Republican candidate blew a 10 point lead in the matter of a month and a half. That is what concerns me.
dio do not even try to say blacks would now vote for Crist.
They still think Crist is a GOP Governor who supported McCain, and will never vote for him
Brandon fair enough. But you did in the past defend PPP quite often.
Look, I feel Lowden would be down 2 also right now. Lowden would lose far right voters because she donated to Reid in the past.
Angle just bought some big TV AD blocks
Tim, I am right that FL blacks will not vote for Crist?
Scott polls much better against Sink right now.
Crist now against Bush tax cuts.
Rubio has so much ammo against this clown
The black vote is irrelevant no? If Greene wins, the democratic establsihment would be encouraged to donate and support Rubio without free of retribution from the black community. That’s the main danger, from dems bailing on their candidate to vote for Crist over Rubio strategically.
Meeks winning ensures that this doesn’t happen.
err to donate and support Crist*. Errata.
“But you did in the past defend PPP quite often.”
Absolutely. I’m not denying that. Their results in 2008 were quite good. Lately their polls haven’t been as good. We’ll see how they do this fall and if they are good again then you can bet that it will put them right near the top again in my mind.
Brandon that is not the point. PPP is always good in October, like everyone else.
I am talking about their horrendous summer polling with bad models.
Dio, FL Democrats will not vote for Crist if a DEM is on the ballot.
They are sheep. Blacks will not vote for Crist, Jews would vote for Greene since he is Jewish
Well i respect all your opinions. I wish it were post labor day, when the pollsters have to have their acts together
#281:
He got about 20% of that vote, in ‘06. If it’s Meek, it will be less. If Greene, then maybe a bit more.
Good morning, east-side HHRs
I’m sleepless in Arizona. It’s 4am and I’m writing bad haiku.
So, on to politics: I don’t have a good, intuitive sense of what is happening in Florida. Crist, to me, seems used-car-salesman-like. Do Floridians who vote look at him this way? Does he seem slick? Perhaps dishonest?
It’s all about impression. In a high turn-out election, name ID and a general impression is all most voters will go on.
Thus, I’m wondering about Crist’s “impression.”
Rubio has always seemed like the earnest, puppy-dog faced kid, who is probably not as clean cut as he’d like us to think. Still, he has a certain innocence. Perhaps charm. In an election of jaded voters, this may bode well for him.
Thus, I’m wondering about Rubio’s “impression.”
273…In my opinion, McCollum blew it when he came out so strongly against the AZ law, which is very popular in this state.
I believe my wife got called for a poll for the Denver Post… Number was from Massachusetts… I believe Survey USA does polls for the Denver Post…