Lunch Time Polls From AR, WY and IL

We’ll start out this lunch time poll update with some grim news for the sitting Democratic US Senator from Arkansas from Scott Rasmussen.

John Boozman (R) 65%
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 27%

Even I am becoming a little shocked at how badly Blanche Lincoln is getting beaten. This poll was done August 18th among 500 likely voters. The first post-primary poll from Wyoming is out and shows Republican Matt Mead in solid position to pick this gubernatorial seat off from the Democrats.

Matt Mead (R) 58%
Leslie Petersen (D) 24%

This poll was done August 18th among 500 likely voters. We have some new polls out of Illinois from We Ask America for the US Senate race and a few Congressional races that show Republicans with major pick up opportunities.

Mark Kirk (R) 39%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 33%

US HOUSE – ILLINOIS – CD 10 (We Ask America)
Dan Seals (D-inc) 43%
Robert Dold (R) 40%

US HOUSE – ILLINOIS – CD 11 (We Ask America)
Adam Kinzinger (R) 52%
Debbie Halvorson (D-inc) 32%

US HOUSE – ILLINOIS – CD 14 (We Ask America)
Randy Hultgren (R) 44%
Bill Foster (D-inc) 37%

These polls were done August 4th among various quantities of registered voters in the state and each district. Rasmussen says we will get polls for the US Senate races in Alabama and my home state of Maryland today as well at some point.

Posted by Dave at 12:26 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (49)

49 Responses to “Lunch Time Polls From AR, WY and IL”

  1. Tommy_Boy says:

    Mason-Dixon FL-AG:

    Bondi 27%
    Kottkamp 23%
    Benson 22%

  2. Ryan says:

    Halvorsen is done. Foster is nearly done. Dold has a very legitimate shot at the seat. Although it is open, Seals has ran twice, is well known and thus is the de facto incumbent. If he is only at 43% Dold should be able to prevail.

  3. Tommy_Boy says:


    Palin and Huckabee lead in PA

    Gingrich leads in Illinois, Romney is in last place.

  4. Mark Cali says:

    Wes, and anyone else who cares, in case you miss it in the other thread. Here’s the information about the Carly/Babs debate I got from one of our campaign memo emails.


    Debate Between Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina

    On Wednesday, September 1st, there will be a televised debate between Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina. It will also be streamed over the internet. We are looking for a venue for that night where we can have large screen TVs and which will accommodate a crowd so that many of us can watch the debate together and discuss it after. As soon as we have located a facility where we can arrange this, we will let you know.

  5. mnw says:

    I sure hope We Ask America has its zh** together.

    They’re making my week, not just my day.

  6. Ryan says:

    Read their articles and they dont sound very conservative. They think Foster will be tought to beat and Dold will have a tough time. Being from Illinois, I just dont see that. I think the GOP sweeps all three seats, gives Melissa Bean a run for her money and has a 50/50 shot to take down Hare.

  7. Marv says:

    We Ask America needs to push respondents to make a frigging decision. I am getting a little irritated with pollsters who let people escape without even suggesting at least to whom they lean.

  8. Paul says:

    Hey Blanche- how’s that vote for Obamacare working for you now????

  9. DW says:

    Clarus Research Group for WWL-TV
    8/15-16/10; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
    Mode: Live telephone interviews
    (WWLTV story)


    2010 Senate: General Election
    48% Vitter (R), 36% Melancon (D)

  10. Little Gay Footballs says:


  11. Marv says:


    Time to head out to vote in the GOP Primary here in Florida. (McCollum, Rubio, Kottcamp…in case you’re interested.)

  12. Jason T says:

    Seals will not win in the IL-10. He lost twice to Kirk already, and he does not even live in the District. He has better name ID at this point, but Dold has out raised him

  13. Tommy_Boy says:

    Add around six points to Clarus and you probably get where Vitter is in reality.

  14. Marv says:

    Hey EPH, how goes it today?

  15. Marv says:

    #12 DW,

    Good poll for Vitter, he’s likely well above 50% with those who will vote. A 12 pt lead among RV’s is good.

  16. Jason T says:

    Foster is self funding millionaire, but this is Haesert’s old seat, and very GOP.

    Foster beat pathetic Republican Oberweis twice to have this seat.

  17. Marv says:


    I don’t think that we should spend any money on a
    LA Senate poll. Are you OK with that?

  18. Jason T says:

    In 2006 and 2008, there were various pre election polls that had Seals even or a little ahead over Kirk. After Labor day, Seals started to tank after Kirk ran ads asking why Seals did not live in the district. Seals still has not moved into the IL-10 yet.

    This is one of the wealthiest districts in the nation, and seals is a black tax raiser

  19. mnw says:

    “U.S. Assures Israel: Iran Threat Not Imminent”

    That settles that, then. The Israelis have nothing to worry about. Zero says so.

  20. Marv says:

    #22 mnw

    If Reagan or Bush were President, I would bet that a strike against Iran is imminent. That is a classic mis-direction statement.

    (What? You mean the invasion beach is Normandy and not Pas de Calais?)

  21. Diogenes says:

    I just found out that my old econ prof stepped down as head of Obama’s concil of economic advisors. Nice lady, but she was more of an economic historian than an economist. I had no idea why Obama nominated her to be honest. Her expertise was in depression economics, very similar to what Bernanke is known for. Of course, bernanke has done a fairly good job while Romer was clearly a disaster (which is why she stepped down).

    Stimulus spending on the most unproductive elements of society is not exactly a recipe for recovery.

  22. Jason T says:

    Tony Abbott, the anti- Climate Change and conservative opposition leader Down under, is surging and has a chance to be the Next Aussie PM after Saturday’s election.

    European and Aussie Bookmakers say bets are coming in 8 to 1 in favor of Abbott.

  23. Marv says:


    I heard a rumor that Obama’s telepromter is disenchanted and is actively considering retirement.

  24. Jason T says:

    Dio, I respect that romer served her Country, but she should have told Obama to back off on deathcare

  25. Jason T says:

    If the Conservatives get lucky and win in Austraila, it would mean a big world shift in politics.

    France, Germany, Austrailia, Canada, Italy, and Britiain would all non left wing Governments

  26. DW says:

    20…agreed. Canceled it.

  27. EML1 says:

    7 – RE: We Ask America

    I’m pretty sure I recall reading somewhere (can’t remember where) that they are associated with Karl Rove’s American Crossroads group. I’m about 98% certain they are conservative. HOWEVER, IIRC, they pegged the IL Dem Sen primary within 1/2 a point and also polled Critz ahead of Burns in PA-12. Other than the fact that they don’t have much of a track record, I don’t have any reason to not trust them.

    Lefties won’t accept their polls at all due to them being associated with Karl Rove and because they have been putting out some GOP-friendly polls lately. Although, I think this is the second time they’ve polled IL-10 and Seals was ahead both times. And again, they picked Critz. And they did a NV-Sen poll a week ago showing Reid ahead.

  28. Jason T says:

    31. Right. Good points. I did not say they were wrong about the IL-10. It is a true tossup at this point. The leader only at 43%.

    My point was not the polling, but the dynamics of the race.

  29. rdelbov says:

    good polls today–getting to be time for weekly update

  30. LaZebra says:

    heading out to Costco as I type.
    Comment by rdelbov — August 20, 2010 @ 12:32 pm

    I hope you don’t drive and text/type at the same time. If so, it would be the first “fault” I’d have with you. It drives me crazy when I see drivers texting while they drive.

    Hey, as you’ve followed the Tigers, do you remember Assistant Coach Tony Barbee? He went to UTEP and now to Auburn. I went to the same church with Tony when he was in high school. Nice guy.

  31. Mark Cali says:

    34 – Who’s sounding like the hall monitor now? ROFL

  32. rdelbov says:


    Tony B. is a super nice guy. Yes he is a friend of Cal but Tony B. is very well thought of here in Memphis.

    He did great at UTEP–he will do well at Auburn. SEC is all about football so Tony B. will likely have a winning record and then move up to say Indiana?? Now there they play basketball.

    NCAA is still torturing the Tigers over the Cal years.

  33. Tina says:

    Mark, I am getting happy about the defeat of Boxah and Moonbeam. How about you?

  34. Mark Cali says:

    Tina, the Moonbeam/DemocRat ads running against Whitman are so ridiculously ineffective. I foresee a comfortable win for both our girls.

  35. avodah says:

    Partisan, partisan, partisan, throw the IL polls out.

    We Ask America: Its website only discloses that it is a division of “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.” But it does not tell the reader what exactly that means, which turns out to be quite significant.

    Xpress Professional Services, Inc. is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association, which is an anti-union, anti-tax, and anti-Health Care Reform industry advocacy organization.

    Its CEO is Greg Baise, who was a 1990 Republican candidate for Treasurer, losing to Pat Quinn by 11%. He is also Treasurer of the Economic Freedom Alliance, which has targeted Democrat Bill Foster with advertising labeling him as a “job killer” for his support of card check legislation.

    Its COO is Gregg Durham, a former spokesman for the Illinois Republican House Caucus and Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.

    The bottom line is that this is a partisan Republican pollster and an arm of the pro-business Illinois Manufacturer’s Association. There is nothing wrong with being a Republican pollster or being an arm of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association. However, there is something wrong with the half-ass disclosure on the website of an affiliation with “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.,” which could be anything, instead of a full disclosure of the direct link to the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association and its Republican principals.

    Articles about this:

    …All this happens with a staff that includes mainly just three full-time workers.

    Beacon News:

    Foster’s camp took aim at the robocall Thursday, charging that it did not allow people to register votes of support. According to e-mails and calls sent in to both Foster’s campaign and district offices, the poll looped back on itself when a “more likely” vote was entered.

    Those charges take on new dimensions given some of We Ask America’s organizational ties. WAA is the polling arm of Xpress Professional Services, which is owned by Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. Durham is also the executive vice president of the IMA.

    The IMA’s president, Greg Baise, is also the treasurer of the Economic Freedom Alliance, a political organization that put up billboards around the Fox Valley, charging Foster with killing jobs. Foster’s support of the Employee Free Choice Act drew opposition from both the IMA and the EFA, and Foster is listed as a “targeted member” on the EFA Web site.

    The two organizations are tied financially as well — the IMA is the biggest donor to the EFA, and the biggest recipient of EFA money.

    The IMA has taken a stand against the health care bill, according to Jim Nelson, vice president of marketing and communications, because of the financial difficulties it will cause for its member companies.

    “There isn’t a member of Congress that hasn’t been contacted by members of our organization and isn’t aware that the IMA has steadfastly opposed this,” Nelson said.

  36. Diogenes says:

    *yawn* Do you have anything better to do than drive-bys? Every pollster is a partisan. Judge only by the record. So far, this firm has proven itself ok and less bitterly partisan than most mainstream organizations (rebalancing to a double-digit D advantage).

  37. avodah says:

    rofl…. that’s right, judge only by the record. And I am not a fly-byer, I read this website every single day and contribute only when necessary. And this time, it was necessary.

  38. Marv says:


    Thank you for playing, see the attendant backstage for your parting gifts.

  39. LaZebra says:

    35–Not a hall monitor, Mark. Just trying to keep the roads safe.

  40. Marv says:

    #43 LaZebra,

    Speaking of safe driving, I try to stay away from the vicinity of the Lyman Gate around 1700 hrs.

  41. LaZebra says:

    I used to live in one of those tall apartment buildings across from McNair Gate. One night I was awoken by a terrible crashing sound. When I went out on my lanai to see, there was a car upside down at the front of our parking lot. They had hit an electrical pole and its wires were hanging down on the car. A girl tried to crawl out of the car, but then let out a horrible scream and collapsed. (She had crawled out onto a wire and been electrocuted.) This was the first time I witnessed someone die. When we went out to the parking lot, the car had dozens of empty beer cans falling out of it. There were 3 bodies covered with sheets.

    I later learned that the downhill curve by McNair Gate was one of the deadliest roads in all of Hawaii.

  42. LaZebra says:

    44–Regarding my comment against driving while texting (#34) and Mark’s comment against me:
    A couple years ago, the father of one of my daughter’s friends was killed on the Interstate. He was in a headon crash with an 18-year-old girl who (reports showed) was talking on a cell phone while driving. Ever since then, I’ve been a stickler against driving and cell phone talking. But driving and texting is even far, far more dangerous. Any thoughts?

  43. Marv says:

    #45 LaZebra

    Downhill curve? Is that on the road that runs up to the northside of the island where the sugar mill is.

  44. LaZebra says:

    Downhill curve? Is that on the road that runs up to the northside of the island where the sugar mill is.
    Comment by Marv — August 20, 2010 @ 4:15 pm

    Yes, I believe so. (But it’s been a lot of years since I was there.)