Three-Way Battle in IA

American Research Group has put out their view of the race in Iowa and it shows a three-way race at the top of the Republican field.

Ron Paul 21%
Mitt Romney 20%
Newt Gingrich 19%
Rick Perry 9%
Michele Bachmann 8%
Jon Huntsman 6%
Rick Santorum 4%
Buddy Roemer 1%
Gary Johnson 0%

This poll was done December 19-22 among 600 likely caucus goers.

Posted by Dave at 12:07 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (295)

295 Responses to “Three-Way Battle in IA”

  1. Tim V says:

    Ron Paul!


    Been reading his newsletters. Wow!

    You know, it’s quite common to think of racism as one of the worst failings of character, but it turns out, adhering to every conspiracy theory that comes down the pike is actually worse.

    A racist may still have a nodding familiarity with objective reality and still trust most of the objects in it.

    But a conspiracy nutter suspects the water he drinks and the contents of his billfold of being part of some Grand Unifying Theory of Population Control. And as all the other little side-theories accumulate and fit in together, suspicion turns to certainty and no ambassador from Realityland -regardless of race- can ever reach such a person.

    One emailed by Gabriel this morning: Ron Paul Newsletter solicitation.

    DID YOU KNOW that yetis are REAL human-alien hybrids created in a laboratory by the US government?

    DID YOU KNOW that the CIA has hidden secret monitoring equipment in everyday objects in every one of our homes? Your wife’s bra may contain a transmitter wire RIGHT NOW!

    DID YOU KNOW that the chemicals added to your drinking water are intended to enslave and control you? And also ATTRACT YETIS?

    via ace

    let the vetting of dr paul begin

  2. J T says:

    Hawk, from last thread. Ben Nelson retiring maybe late today? Or something with Holder?

  3. Tim V says:

    thread rules : bash ron paul

  4. Tim V says:

    Reuters) – A direct-mail solicitation for Ron Paul’s political and investment newsletters two decades ago warned of a “coming race war in our big cities” and of a “federal-homosexual cover-up” to play down the impact of AIDS.

  5. jason says:

    It might be good that Ron Paul rose in the polls so a lot of this stuff will finally get a thorough airing and we can dismiss this nutcase for once and for all.

  6. Knighthawk says:

    4. I must have missed that – only read the tail end of the thread.

    Ron Paul’s foreign policy is naive.

  7. DW says:

    R on Paul is simply never wrong
    O nly Iran brings peace to the middle east
    N othing gained by supporting Israel

    P alistinians are so peaceful
    A merican emperialism must stop!
    U nfunded liability will cripple us
    L et’s get back on the gold standard

  8. J T says:

    Hawk, about the late friday dump before Xmas.

    ron Paul is almost 80 correct?

  9. MikeKS says:

    It’s clear now that Newt’s fallback has stopped — and unlike the others before him, hes bouncing back up. He was down to 13 in Iowa, now up to 19. Nationally the lead was down to 2 or even, now he’s up 6 again.

  10. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – Bolaris is 3 feet tall. I guess chicks dig meteorologists.

  11. Chekote says:

    Huntsman ahead of Santorum in IOwa?????

  12. Tina says:

    Obumbler’s $4 million vacation to Hawaii is set to begin.

    Of course, Moochelle went there first.

  13. Chekote says:

    Laura Bush travelled all over the world too. Republicans make complete asses of themselves going after the First Lady. No wonder we lose every PR battle against Obama. We have dummies on our side.

  14. Chekote says:

    And Bush went on vacation too. So has EVERY POTUS.

  15. MD says:

    A friend of mine (former friend actually) punched him in the face in the late 90’s. I am sure my friend started it although he maintained innocence which I didn’t believe for a second. Bolaris (I almost typed Polaris – strange) did nothing to avoid the conflict though. The guy loves drama.

  16. CPA says:

    Huntsman ahead of Santorum in Iowa. HUNTMENTUM!!!!

  17. DW says:

    16, 17…oh please. Even an Obama-lover like you can see the difference between an occasional working trip back to Texas, and regular vacations the Obama’s take that would make the host of “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” blush.

    How many rounds of golf has Obama played since taking the oath?

  18. DW says:

    Here is my Christmas Card to everyone on HHR:

  19. Tina says:

    I have no problem with their family going on vacation, it is the extended family and friends, that cost us $$$, dummy.

  20. Tina says:

    And I can go to HI, and probably spend $2000 – including air, five day in a five star hotel, and food.

  21. Chekote says:

    The GOP looks like a bunch off arses going after Michelle. Despite all the dire predictions that she would be the Angela Davis in the White House, Michelle is doing a great job as first lady. Leave her alone. Fools!

  22. Tina says:

    And given the bad economy – I do not know too many Americans, other than the Obumbler, spending $4 million on a vacation.

    Just saying…

  23. Tina says:

    Leave the Obumbler alone too, he is doing a great job…

  24. CPA says:

    Marv will like the fact that Santorum is below Huntsman. All of those evangelical endorsements going to Rick may now go to Rick when all the ministers realize what a loser Rick really is, over the Christmas week.

    Merry Christmas Agent P.

  25. MD says:

    I have no issue with 1 extended vacation per year for the family and the necessary security Tina. None. However, they take several and then claim to be for “the people”. What a joke. It reminds me of Biden who wrote the harsh bankruptcy laws because he was bought and paid for by a CC firm in DE (I knew his scumbag son), who also claims to be for the “little guy”. You know, Biden who hardly ever gave a dime to charity.

  26. Tina says:

    (having the taxpayers spend $4 million….)

  27. Chekote says:

    He POTUS dumbwit! Go knows what the security costs are. YOu do not think it cost money whenever Bush went anywhere? So frickin’ stupid. Why not focus on actually advancing conservative solutions? No… all we get is the same pointless chit. Keep it up and you will have another 4 years of Obama.

  28. Bitterlaw says:

    All I wanted for Christmas was a Cheksux-Tina fight. Thank you, Santa. This should be good.

  29. DW says:

    23…exactly my point. A HUGE difference between working for a week from the ranch in Texas and the “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” vacations the Obamas are regularly taking.

  30. Chekote says:

    He is POTUS… sorry

  31. CPA says:

    “a bunch of arses” is a perfect description of Mooochellle.

  32. MD says:

    9.25. It wasn’t that crazy but it is hard to actually understand so I threw in some bonus points.

  33. Tina says:

    They can go on vacation, MD, we are all in agreement there, it is just the extended family and friends.

    The last time, Moochelle brought 40 friends with her to Africa.

    That is not right.

    I would say the same if a R did that, but none has.

  34. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – get out of the ring and let them fight. This is great!

  35. Tina says:

    I know the last time I went to HI (granted I flew out of lovely SFO) – it cost $299.

  36. MD says:

    Bitter – I heard you on WIP. You gave the Cowher defense for Reid. That was you right?

  37. DW says:

    Looks like we struck a nerve. It must be that the data from the DNC troll center is showing that the Obama-Vacation issue is hurting his chances with independents, so Chek and the other trolls are rushing out to make a moral equivalency to Bush43 argument….hoping to scare this issue off the table.

  38. Chekote says:

    That’s because Obama doesn’t come from a wealthy dynasty like Bush. He doesn’t have a ranch or the fancy house in Kennebukport. Believe me. Bush wasn’t slumming it. No president does. Frankly, there are bigger issues with Obama than his vacation. The GOP has become the Grand Old Petty.

  39. Tina says:

    BTW, while Candlestick is a mess, SFO is very beautiful facility – a sharp contrast to OHare, which smelled like urine everywhere.

  40. Tina says:

    Ok, lets see how his poll numbers are when he “returns” from the $4 million trip.

  41. Chekote says:

    Whenever someone resort to “troll” they lost the argument. But keep on wasting time on bullchit while Obama runs circles around the Boehner and McConnell.

  42. DW says:

    I can just about imagine the MSM outrage if Bush43 had vacationed like the Obamas.

  43. MD says:

    Tina – I cut him some slack on HI since it is his home state. I do think 1 vaca a year for 10 to 14 days is justified for him, his family and all the necessary security and precautions. However, they go waaay beyond that. They really should just make greater use of Camp David on the weekends. That is pretty much a private resort. Also, the left has gone mute on Obama’s golfing. I guarantee you he has golfed twice as much as Bush. Remember they counted every round for Bush.

  44. Chekote says:

    His polls numbers will do just fine as long as arses on our side go after his wife and kids.

  45. Tina says:

    And Yes, to defeat the obumbler nothing should be off the table, you go after every single issue and attack, attack, and attack.

    The Drats do this all the time.

    Again, Reagan did not do this, Ford, Bushes, etc.

  46. DW says:

    Obama cannot afford a ranch??

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA…what a joke. Chek has become a parody of herself.

  47. Tina says:


    45.I can just about imagine the MSM outrage if Bush43 had vacationed like the Obamas.

    Comment by DW — December 23, 2011 @ 1:27 pm

    What would have been the reaction of one or more posters too it, you knw the concerned ones if it is an R, but become unconcerned when it is a Drat.

  48. MD says:

    40 LOL DW. Well, no surprise really.

    Boehner has looked awful this week with his yes, no, yes routine. Awful and weak. He can rebound but they may have to manipulate a situation where he tells the House freshman to F off and then they fall in line. It would be orchestrated (many of these are) but would benefit everyone, even the freshman. BTW – the inside scoop on this is pretty interesting but I have been sworn to a month of silence.

  49. Tina says:

    I am sure that one of his Street Thug Friends, perhaps the “Marxist troll down the street” could buy him a ranch…

  50. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    Sigh. I keep telling Chekote in the break room that she is going to get re-assigned to a different conservative blog. She has not been able to resist going open with her trolling. I am kind of bitter because she got a bigger holiday bonus than I got…even though I have done a better job of trolling.

  51. Chekote says:

    Yes we know the media is biased. I frankly do not remember a single Democrat saying anything nasty about Laura Bush or her travels with her daughters. On our side you have that joker of Rush calling her Moochelle and his dumb parrots repeating it.

  52. Tina says:

    The vacaation, while deserved by him, and yes he does deserve all of the protection, is foolish. The trip costs $4 million, he is not paying for it, and the economy SUCKS.

    But the Drat fools, say it is ok.

  53. Chekote says:

    Boehner and McConnell need to go. They are awful. Stupid. And Cantor is a so annoying. Get some new blood!

  54. MD says:

    48 – Tina

    I would go after him on all the issues that make him and the left look like hypocrites. After 8 years of Bush/Hitler that is fair game. Not only that but the msm would lead with a negative Bush story every single night without fail. Yes, let’s go after the Marxist hard. Very hard. I would not leave Michelle out of it since she sticks her nose into issues. The kids are off limits though for me. I know the left didn’t leave the Bush twins alone but in this situation, I just can’t justify making an issue of children.

  55. Chekote says:

    Yes, sure Tina. Any president needs protection. But especially a black president. Let’s not forget what happened to many prominent black leaders in this country.

  56. MD says:


    You know how to handle this. In short, don’t listen to Bitter.

  57. Bitterlaw says:

    Bitter – I heard you on WIP. You gave the Cowher defense for Reid. That was you right?

    Not me. I did leave a message that Dom Giordano played. I usually leave at least one per week and they get on.

    As for Hawaii, big deal. he grew up there and has to visit his . . . well, not his Dad . . . no, Mom’s dead . . .

  58. Bitterlaw says:

    In short, don’t listen to Bitter.

    Comment by MD — December 23, 2011 @ 1:35 pm

    Handle what? Fight Fight Fight.

  59. Tina says:

    When did you change your position on Boehner and Little Mitchie.

    I seem to recall, every time I mentioned Little Mitchie selling us out, that you would go bananas?

  60. jason says:

    Michelle Obama is absolutely fair game because she has an activist role and is involved in partisan politics.

    Nobody attacked her kids, but attacking HER is smart politics because it exposes the hypocrisy of the whole class warfare meme.

    Chekote never misses a chance to rise to the defense of her messiah.

  61. Chekote says:

    “I would not leave Michelle out of it since she sticks her nose into issues”

    Bullchit. She has stayed away from politics. I am glad she is helping soldiers find a job once they get back. And as far as child obesity, how is that different than Nancy Reagan and her crusade against drug use.

  62. MD says:

    Boehner did hand Obama a nice Christmas gift. He thought he had no choice. He was wrong. He did. However, the good news is that many Freshman were stunned at the negative reaction they received from the very constituents that voted for them.

  63. Bitterlaw says:

    Dom Giordano says Obama has played 88 rounds of golf as President. I’m sure somebody keeps count.

  64. Chekote says:

    Keep it up GOP. Obama’s numbers are rising again. Why not start up with the birth certificate bullchit again?!

  65. Tina says:

    I do not fight Mr. BL.

    I have arthristis in my knee and an achilles that is cranky.

    Another year of gubment service, I will retire.

  66. MD says:

    jason – 100% correct. Unlike Laura Bush, MO has weighed in on almost every issue. That makes her fair game.

  67. MD says:

    Do you hear Michael Moore talking about that or following Obama with a camera?

  68. Tina says:

    They should have fought over the budget, hot a stupid 2 month tax, which will not do anything to help this economy.

    Watch out in 2012. Income #s, spending, #s, Oracle warning, etc.

  69. CPA says:

    Eagles need Jets and Giants to help drive for Super Bowl. Stranger things have happpened.

  70. jason says:

    Laura Bush has class.

  71. MD says:

    Tina – remember, a certain entity is crying for attention. Don’t cave in. Bitter wants entertainment. The settlement season slacks off this time of year.

  72. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    Just so you know….Chek is just working overtime here at the DNC troll center. Its been a rough year for us, and she needs all the money she can get.

  73. Tina says:

    Moochelle is a liability and she needs to be attacked for her spending habits at taxpayer expense.

    It is fair game.

  74. MD says:

    Tina – Oracle’s problem is that Oracle sucks. I use their awful Siebel system at work so I know first hand.

  75. CPA says:

    Can eagles fire REID after he wins the super Bowl???

  76. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    We all had to take a pay cut after the 2010 election fiasco. Chek was particularly embarrased after her 2009 decision to press our team to go hard after McDonnell’s thesis–being so sure it was the ticket toward taking him out.

  77. Tina says:

    Deport the obumbler’s uncle….

    Did Romney really say that.

    If he did, I will now send him a check for $200.

  78. jason says:

    Michelle Obama views herself as a co-President and is always making partisan and activist speeches.

    Very different from Laura Bush.

    Michelle Antoinette Obama is fair game. By her own choice. And she deserves the criticism because she only wants the little people to live (and eat) by her rules.

    Fire away.

  79. Bitterlaw says:

    Actually, MD, settlements boom in December because the attorneys want to put the fees on this year’s tax return unless they are about to get pushed into a higher bracket. I have had attorneys settle cases on January 2 just to stay in their bracket.

  80. Tina says:

    The miss by Oracle, MD, is showing that tech spending is falling. It is not a commment on their products- being good or bad. Just a note of harsh times ahead.

  81. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    And we still joke about that here in the office…whenever Chekote has another brilliant idea…”Hey Chekote have you read McDonnell’s thesis lately?”

  82. jason says:

    Start writing the check… 8)

    ASHLAND, N.H. – Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney says he would deport President Barack Obama’s uncle, who police say was arrested in August for drunk driving near Boston and is an illegal immigrant.

    In an interview with Boston radio host Howie Carr on Wednesday, Romney said “yes” when asked if Onyango Obama should be deported. Romney at first did not recognize the name, but said the nation’s immigration laws should be enforced.

  83. Bitterlaw says:

    Can eagles fire REID after he wins the super Bowl???

    Comment by CPA — December 23, 2011 @ 1:41 pm

    MD would. If the Giants miss the playoffs, their coach is probably gone.

  84. Tina says:

    The newsmedia touted a strong economy – reminds me a lot of late 2000 – when it was crashing quickly.

  85. jason says:

    I am still worried about Bill White, the formidable candidate. I think he might move from Texas to Louisiana and pose a huge threat to Bobby Jindal.

  86. jason says:

    Newt slams Ron Paul…

    Despite his mantra to stay “positive,” Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich took a swipe at rival Ron Paul on Thursday, suggesting that the Texas lawmaker’s political base consists of “people who want to legalize drugs.”

    During a radio interview with conservative commentator John McCaslin, the former House speaker also said that Paul is naive about the war on terrorism and Iran’s nuclear program. “This is a guy who basically says, if the United States were only nice, it wouldn’t have had 9/11. He doesn’t want to blame the bad guys.… He dismisses the danger of an Iranian nuclear weapon and seems to be indifferent to the idea that Israel could be wiped out. And as I said, I think the key to his volunteer base is people who want to legalize drugs.”

  87. CPA says:

    so the Redskins will have to save Coughlin’s job.

  88. Knighthawk says:

    Chek on tilt again.

  89. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    #89 it is also made up of people that hate them joooos

  90. Knighthawk says:

    81. Not to mention most of Laura extended trips were to Africa to deal with aids, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc in efforts to support progress for women, literacy and breast cancer awareness, or Burma to promote democracy movements. Something btw she’s still involved in. You never saw Laura take a high flying european vacation and drag 40 friends along. Michelle just takes pricey (above and beyond security costs) vacations.

  91. lisab says:

    First lady Michelle Obama tells Barbara Walters in a 20/20 special that it is “practical” for her to put her self highest on her priority list.

  92. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    Comb the desert…

  93. lisab says:

    An Open Apology to Amy Koch on Behalf of All Gay and Lesbian Minnesotans

    Dear Ms. Koch,

    On behalf of all gays and lesbians living in Minnesota, I would like to wholeheartedly apologize for our community’s successful efforts to threaten your traditional marriage. We are ashamed of ourselves for causing you to have what the media refers to as an “illicit affair” with your staffer, and we also extend our deepest apologies to him and to his wife. These recent events have made it quite clear that our gay and lesbian tactics have gone too far, affecting even the most respectful of our society.

    We apologize that our selfish requests to marry those we love has cheapened and degraded traditional marriage so much that we caused you to stray from your own holy union for something more cheap and tawdry. And we are doubly remorseful in knowing that many will see this as a form of sexual harassment of a subordinate.

    It is now clear to us that if we were not so self-focused and myopic, we would have been able to see that the time you wasted diligently writing legislation that would forever seal the definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman, could have been more usefully spent reshaping the legal definition of “adultery.”

    Forgive us. As you know, we are not church-going people, so we are unable to fully appreciate that “gay marriage” is incompatible with Christian values, despite the fact that those values carry a biblical tradition of adultery such as yours. We applaud you for keeping that tradition going.

    And finally, shame on us for thinking that marriage is a private affair, and that our marriage would have little impact on anyone’s family. We now see that marriage is more than that. It is an agreement with society. We should listen to the Minnesota Family Council when it tells us that marriage is about being public, which explains why marriages are public ceremonies. Never did we realize that it is exactly because of this societal agreement that the entire world is looking at you in shame and disappointment instead of minding its own business.

    From the bottom of our hearts, we ask that you please accept our apology.

    Thank you.
    John Medeiros
    Minneapolis MN

  94. lisab says:

    “There’s a different leader in Syria now. Many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he’s a reformer.” michelle bachman

  95. mnw says:

    I love it when I Am A Beautiful refers to GOP as “us”! SOOOO convincing.

    In that vein… as you all know, mnw has LONG held that we must bring ‘Americans In Waiting’ (as I like to call them) OUT of the shadows and welcome them INTO our jobs, our homes and our future.

  96. david says:

    The President’s Approval per RCP is very depressing. by next weekend, he will have a positive net rating. There has been a drastic change since 12/1.

  97. david says:

    Any ideas what is causing his approval to go up? I can’t be the payroll tax deal.

  98. Tina says:

    I wonder if ??? is part of the 40 member entourage to HI?

  99. Corey says:

    It’s the Holidays. Exact same thing happened last year.

  100. Tina says:

    Who cares about the Obumbler’s #s, they go up, they go down, they go up, they go down, he is still below 50 in RAS and in the low 40s in others.

  101. Corey says:

    In the two daily tracking polls, Obama is at 47% in Rasmussen and 44% in Gallup.

    Sounds about right. Definitely not the number of an incumbent who is going to have an easy go of it for reelection against a good Republican opponent.

  102. jason says:

    Good answer by Newt. I give credit when credit is due.

    Newt Gingrich, asked on Laura Ingraham’s radio show this morning about Meghan McCain’s criticism of his wife, Callista, didn’t take the bait.

    “Newt, I know you’re losing sleep over the fact that Meghan McCain called Callista ‘icy’ and said she was doing damage to your campaign,” Ingraham said. “Meghan McCain, now being touted by MSNBC as a ‘conservative thinker.'”

    Gingrich laughed, responding, “Well, listen, let me — let’s be fair. By the standards of MSNBC, she is a conservative thinker.”

  103. J T says:

    Spot on Tina. As Corey told us yesterday, Obama was at 50% last XMAS, even after he got walloped in the 2010 midterms

  104. MD says:

    Good for Romney! The guy has no right to be here. Period. End of story.

  105. jason says:

    Gallup Newt 26 (-1) Mitt 22 (+1)

  106. J T says:

    Tina, who is moving to Santla Clara? The Giants or the 49ers?

    And who is the SF Mayor these days, another marxist Flower Child?

  107. jason says:

    “You never saw Laura take a high flying european vacation and drag 40 friends along. Michelle just takes pricey (above and beyond security costs) vacations.

    That doesn’t matter to Chekote, she is very sensitive about anything that might tarnish Obama.

  108. SUSYQUE says:

    #98…Lisab…what’s with this sarcastic apology letter?

    “Forgive us. As you know, we are not church-going people, so we are unable to fully appreciate that “gay marriage” is incompatible with Christian values, despite the fact that those values carry a biblical tradition of adultery such as yours. We applaud you for keeping that tradition going.”

    There is no biblical tradition of adultery. Nor is adultery a tradition.
    Marriage between a man and a woman is ordained by God Himself and trumps any other type of sex.

  109. jason says:


    Christianity is still the most prevalent religion in the United States, with 78% of American adults identifying with some form of the Christian religion in 2011. Less than 2% are Jewish, less than 1% are Muslim, and 15% do not have a religious identity.

  110. Tina says:

    JT, 49ers to Santa Clara. They have their HQs there and it has been that way since forever practically.

    The Giants stay in SF, their ball park is 11 years old.

  111. Corey says:

    We Are the Less than 2 Percent

  112. MD says:

    Corey – that is right around where Bush was 11 months out. He would slip more but still win a close race. You already knew that of course.

    I maintain that this will be a close race. Very close.

    I am also 100% certain that Romney will be the nominee.

    Paul and Newt are now attacking one another. I apologize to everyone because my evil plan took longer to unfold than I would have liked. Keep it going boys.

    Puppets on a string.

  113. jason says:

    “Marriage between a man and a woman is ordained by God Himself and trumps any other type of sex.”

    Wow, some sex trumps other sex?

    I personally think phone sex trumps internet sex.

  114. Corey says:

    I believe the numbers would indicate that GWB was several points higher at the end of 2003.

  115. mnw says:

    “Video Shows Paul Discussing Racist Newsletters in 1995, Six Years Before He Claimed He Learned of Their Existence”

  116. jason says:

    I am glad MD got off the couch and intervened and now everything is going well…

  117. MD says:

    I had the flu and then a lingering infection jason. Give me a break. Plus, I was actually busy with work in the last quarter. It is the holidays.

  118. Tina says:

    Actually, JT, the mayor of SF, is a bit more conservative these days. He seems like a nice person and is aware of the negative or poor business climate in the city.

  119. MD says:

    You are right Corey. It varied between 50 and 60 before falling off the cliff.

  120. jason says:

    ” Video Shows Paul Discussing Racist Newsletters in 1995, Six Years Before He Claimed He Learned of Their Existence ”

    Ron Paul made $$$$ from the Ron Paul newsletters which he didn’t read and didn’t know who was writing them.

    You have to admit the guy is a genius.

  121. Tina says:

    Those videos of Rube must be doctored by the JOOOS. It is all a conspiracy.

  122. Tina says:

    I am sure that Bubu will post 30 times, that it is not true.

  123. jason says:

    “I had the flu and then a lingering infection jason. Give me a break. Plus, I was actually busy with work in the last quarter. It is the holidays.”

    Well, ok, but I really think you should not let things almost get out of hand like that.

  124. Corey says:

    According to Gallup, GWB’s monthly average for December 2003 was 58%.

    That might have gotten a bit of a boost because of the capture of Saddam Hussein but he was polling over 50% consistently at that point.

    Obama has been pretty consistent in the mid 40s for over two years now.

    I do think it will be a very competitive, perhaps very close race, but I don’t know if there is anything he can do to get his JA to go much higher.

    All indications are that a Republican nominee, who is ideologically, competently, and personally acceptable to the country should beat him.

  125. Tina says:

    ??? ‘s political platform.

    Leave No Illegal Behind – Keep Moochelle Ahead.

  126. mnw says:

    Papa Doc in 1987: “Ronald Reagan proved the disaster of the conservative agenda.”


  127. Tina says:

    It will be nice (and a surprise) if Romney wins Iowa. It could be ovver quicker than I thought, and Corey would be right again.

  128. J T says:

    Thanks Tina. That still has to be a big loss for SF, to have the niners move. Is Santa Clara in a different County also?

  129. Corey says:

    And I promise not to gloat about that at all!

  130. SUSYQUE says:

    #119…Jason…telephone sex between a husband and a wife is fine. (if that’s their choice) Marriage is between a man and a woman is a blessed event.
    From this union, the Lord wants godly children.
    (Be Fruitful and Multiply!)

  131. Wes says:

    I hope Mitt takes Iowa, Tina.

  132. jason says:

    “I am sure that Bubu will post 30 times, that it is not true.”

    Yes, Bubu will say there is nothing racist at all, it’s a smear by zionist scum who control the economy and the media.

  133. MD says:

    Paul’s support is not from real R’s. It is from people who otherwise would ID themselves as either Libertarians (the fringe type – not the Wes type) or liberals. This skews the whole thing. Trust me that Paul is going to under perform his numbers significantly in the primaries. As for IA, anything is really possible given the structure of the caucus. It is almost silly to offer any real prediction.

    I just think Bachmann will do well and the structure fits Paul well.

  134. jason says:

    ” From this union, the Lord wants godly children.”

    But sometimes things go horribly wrong and you get a suzyque.

    And God says “oops”.

  135. Tim V says:

    via stacy mccain

    Question: What do Ron Paul and Charles Manson have in common?
    Answer: Both warned their followers of an impending “race war.”

    Maybe Lisa Graas isn’t the first blogger to make that comparison, and if some other blogger wants to accuse Lisa of “stealing” their material . . .

  136. Tina says:

    JT, the Nine have always been headquartered in Santa Clara, I think it was done in the early 1980s.

    Santa Clara is in Santa Clara County. Think Silicone Valley – home to Intel, etc.

  137. Tina says:

    Silicon Valley.

  138. Corey says:

    I thought Silicone Valley was where all the rich plastic surgeons built their mansions….

  139. MD says:

    Videotape and written evidence be damned!

  140. jason says:

    I think Paul will underperform the polls, I bet there are a lot of people saying they will vote for him who are not even registered in Iowa.

    Newt does not have that great an organization. I think he underperforms too.

    I think Romney, Santorum and Bachmann do as well or better than they are polling and Perry about the same.

  141. Tina says:

    JT – Santa Clara would be South of San Francisco, commonly referred to as the “South Bay.”

  142. DW says:

    Current prediction:

    IA – Paul 1st, Romney 2nd, Newt 3rd
    NH – Romney 1st, Newt 2nd
    SC – Romney 1st, Newt 2nd

    Fat lady enters stage left.

  143. SUSYQUE says:

    Jason….you askew authority. That’s the rebel in you.

  144. Corey says:

    I think Newt may finish sixth in Iowa and won’t get top three anywhere before he drops out.

  145. MD says:

    OK – I will go out on a limb this far on IA:

    Bachmann will finish in the top 3. Could I be wrong? Absolutely!

  146. Tim V says:

    Jason, God never makes mistakes. If someone is scewed up, blame Satan.

  147. jason says:

    I askew people with a warped view of religion and who need urgent psychotherapy… you.

  148. MD says:

    Shouldn’t Lisab be busy preparing lesson plans and buying supplies on her own dime?

  149. mnw says:

    askew! aachoo! eschew?

  150. jason says:

    153. So susyque is a creation by the Devil?

    Who knew?

    But I will accept your theory, seems reasonable.

  151. MD says:

    Please, no religious wars!

  152. jason says:

    Askew.. like in something not straight…

  153. Tina says:

    Maybe, Rube will win a straw vote.

    I think that POS will go turd party.

  154. jason says:

    You noticed I immediately bowed to Tim V’s superior analysis of susyque.

    I know an expert when I see one.

    The Devil it is.

  155. Wes says:

    God created Satan knowing Satan would corrupt the universe though, Tim. Ergo, how is God absolved of culpability? He looks like a willful conspirator to me.

  156. mnw says:

    I askew, is susyque not straight?

  157. MD says:

    If he does Tina, the D’s might live to regret encouraging him. His basic story appeals to their fringe element much more than it does to the right. Paul is certainly not a “moderate” type of 3rd party candidate like Anderson in 80.

    Imagine how badly Reagan would have crushed Carter without him in the race?

  158. jason says:

    Look if Tim V thinks susyque is the product of the Devil, I won’t argue the point.

  159. Wes says:

    I thought askew was a reference to former Florida Givernor Ruben Askew?

  160. MD says:

    God (if any such thing exists and I am not sold on that) gave everyone free will. So the whole discussion is pointless.

  161. Wes says:


  162. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    I agree with MD…all sides need to stand down.

  163. jason says:

    If Ron Paul runs third party the strategy should be to paint him as a leftwing radical, which won’t be hard to do.

    Make him the OWS candidate.

  164. mnw says:


    It was SATIN who askwed it. It was one of SATIN’s hypocrisies!

  165. jason says:

    God exists. But it’s not susyque’s warped and sick idea of what God is.

  166. J T says:

    Thanks Tina. The only time I have been to Candlestick, was in the late 80’s. They played the Dodgers, and I thought Will Clark would be a future Hall of Famer some day.

  167. MD says:

    No way Carter wins Minnesota, MD or HI without Anderson in the race. WV would have been very close as well.

  168. Wes says:

    I don’t believe there’s a God either, MD. Free will and an omniscient God are incompatible concepts, however.

  169. MD says:

    170 – exactly. Hey, I would start a 527 and appeal directly to them! I can’t name a candidate but I could do everything but.

  170. Corey says:

    Minnesota was Mondale’s state. I don’t know the numbers off hand, but I don’t really think Anderson would have gotten a lot of votes out of West Virginia.

    The conventional wisdom in 1980 also was that Anderson in the race hurt Carter the most.

  171. MD says:

    175 – Wes

    Honest to God, I just don’t care either way. Why discuss this so much? I am not asking you in particular but everyone. Have faith. Awesome! Just don’t put it in my face all the time.

  172. Wes says:

    Anderson ran on a left-wing platform. I’m not sure he cost Carter those states.

  173. MD says:

    Corey – I don’t buy that at all. Anderson took about 6.5% and almost all of them were the Ford/Nixon R’s who were not comfortable with Reagan’s brand of conservatism. Anderson got 8.5% of the vote in MN while Carter beat Reagan by around 4%.

  174. Chekote says:

    Newt has stabilized… Let’s see what happens after Christmas… Newt will go after Mittens… get that phony out of the race.

  175. Wes says:

    It’s hard to say whom Paul would hurt most in the general. He probably takes roughly equally from Obama and the Republicans because of his schizophrenic political ideas.

  176. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    For those who eschew religous wars, you guys sure do keep posting away.

    New topic: Favorite super villan?

  177. Wes says:

    I agree, Chek. Romney needs to get the phony, Newt, out of the race.

  178. MD says:

    Reagan made up for them by capturing the lunch pail, go to church on Sunday, hunting fishing, voter. Thus the Reagan Democrats were born. He completely shifted the electoral landscape.

  179. Wes says:

    I’m torn between Bane and Darkseid on that one, So.

  180. Corey says:

    180. I used to sort of think that maybe that was the case, but the evidence does not show that.

    I just read a very lengthy book about the 1980 campaign and Anderson definitely presented himself as a liberal alternative to Carter on many issues.

    Yes, he received votes from some liberal Republicans (back when they existed), but mostly appealed to the suburban white liberal Volvo driving set as well as college students and professors. Anderson’s running mate was a very liberal former Governor of Wisconsin who was tight with the Kennedys.

    Many in the Kennedy Family admitted to others at the time that they voted for Anderson over Carter.

  181. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    Darth Vader or Hannibal Lector

  182. Corey says:

    I would theorize that in 1980, Minnesota was considered a Dem lock from the start (it being Mondale’s state at and all) and that many liberals voted for Anderson as a protest vote.

  183. Wes says:

    Vader before or after Lucas ruined him with the prequels?

  184. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    Chekote and I are back from lunch. Things are really busy today at the DNC troll center. We had hoped to get off early today, but the DNC doesn’t celebrate any holiday tainted by a connection to Christianity.

  185. MD says:


    Agree on Newt. Even he knows he is finished. I think we can use Newt in a very specific way for the general though. I would send him to the most conservative CD’s in the swing states and have him hold town halls (without the media) on the issue of life. I know you are pro choice and that is fine. Politically though, we need to drive up that vote as much as possible to counter the population centers and Newt has always been a huge pro-life supporter.

  186. MD says:

    Before Wes an BEFORE Return of the Jedi which I thought sucked.

  187. Wes says:

    If that’ll work, I’m all for it, MD.

  188. MD says:

    Still I go with Lector overall. The guy liked to eat faces. Hard to get more evil than that.

  189. Corey says:

    Newt can go talk to pet owners and French Horn players for the general election.

    I don’t see him as being any sort of key for the GOP. Let him go on tv and call Obama nasty names if that is the kind of thing that some on the right need to hear every day in order to be validated about participating in the process.

  190. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    New Joker or Old Joker

  191. MD says:

    He needs to be on a tight leash Wes and the press has to be banned but that should be easy to do in certain districts. Only swing states. In PA, I can think of several CD’s where, if we can get the turnout to be 5 to 10% above 04’s, we could steal the state for the GOP. It is not an easy thing to do but we might as well use him. The rest of the candidates are almost worthless to us.

  192. Barrett says:

    Seriouesly, I’ve become a poll junky, and the best that December 23rd can throw my way is an ARG poll


  193. Wes says:

    I have to go with Vader then, So. He’d kick Lecter’s ass.

  194. MD says:

    Corey – that is the opposite of what we want him doing.

    Hope – old school Joker.

  195. Corey says:

    Cesar Romero as the Old Joker?

  196. Wes says:

    You’ll have to be more specific on the Joker dichotomy, So.

  197. Chekote says:

    Oh geez… we are still talking the Reagan Democrats??? That was 32 years ago.

  198. MD says:

    200 – my measurement is on pure evil Wes. Vader became “good” (throw up) in Jedi and reformed while Lecter’s remained true to his evil ways.

  199. DW says:

    newt did by the way, get the signatures to appear on the VA ballot. Santorum, Bachmann and Huntsman did not. Frustrating. I had assumed that Bachmann would have been on the ballot.

    Now I have to choose between Romney, Newt and Paul. Of course if this thing is still in play (it won’t be) I would vote Romney. But I had planned to go with Bachmann.

  200. MD says:

    I loved Caesar as the Joker and Meredith Burgess as the Penquin. Nicholson was good but it is hard to beat the original.

    I would give the nod to Halle Berry for Cat Woman though over Eartha Kitt and the other lady who played her. Then again, that ranking would have nothing to do with acting ability.

  201. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    Nicholson vs Ledger Jokers

  202. Wes says:

    I ignore Return of the Jedi, MD. Vader was bad ass in Star Wars and Empire Strikes Back.

  203. Corey says:

    Julie Newmar as the other Catwoman?

  204. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    204…That troll course we took together made the point to ridicule whatever conservatives want to talk about, but I think you are taking it a little too far.

  205. MD says:

    DW – Huntsman has his following but this is a clear sign that his organization is just not deep enough.

  206. Corey says:

    That scared the crap out of me as a five year old when Vader took his mask off in Return of the Jedi.

  207. Wes says:

    The Nicholson Joker was closer to the original Kane/Finger Joker, so I’ll choose him.

  208. MD says:

    Agree Wes. I was even OK with the end of Empire. However, turning him into a hero was absurd. The guy ended planets and now we are supposed to cheer for him? Lucas might be the most overrated film maker of all time.

  209. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    Lector cut off his own hand instread of hurting Clarece (sp). There were lines he wouldnt cross.

  210. MD says:

    One last thing on the 80 race. I think Reagan takes Alaska without Anderson. I give Carter GA, DC and WV (which would have been closer). That is 21 EVs.

  211. Chekote says:

    At least your are not talking about the civil war

  212. MD says:

    He had a fetish for her. All evil guys are allowed 1 fetish. It is in the handbook of evil.

  213. Corey says:

    Reagan did win Alaska in 1980, right?

  214. Tim V says:

    DENVER — This is the story of three sports-loving Muslim brothers and how they boosted the career of the NFL’s most famous Christian.

    The Suleimans – Tariq, Ali and Mohammad – are responsible for “the Sign,” the towering electronic billboard that captured national attention when it began running messages in September urging the Denver Broncos to start Tim Tebow as quarterback.

    It worked. “It just goes to show you,” said Mohammad, “when Muslims and Christians get together, miracles can happen.”

  215. david says:

    #206, I was hoping he didn’t make the ballot in VA.

  216. WeAreTheMittWeHaveBeenWaitingFor says:

    If the Southern states never left the Union why did they have to be readmitted after the war?


  217. MD says:

    Corey – I intended to type HI. My fault. Reagan, of course, did win AK.

  218. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    Anikan was super gullible and illogical in the prequals and phantom menace was bad but the work as a whole was great.

  219. MD says:

    How different would things have been had Nancy allowed Ronald Reagan to campaign heavily for GOP candidates across the country?

  220. WeAreTheMittWeHaveBeenWaitingFor says:

    e o
    b b
    o e

  221. Wes says:

    Dracula or Mr. Hyde?

  222. WeAreTheMittWeHaveBeenWaitingFor says:

    Whoops, that didn’t work!

  223. WeAreTheMittWeHaveBeenWaitingFor says:

    Best villain Dr Doom of course

  224. Corey says:

    I vote for Henry Hyde of IL.

  225. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    What about KHAAAANNN!

  226. Wes says:

    The GOP would have had a better night in 1984 and may have staved off the 1986 electoral disaster, MD.

  227. WeAreTheMittWeHaveBeenWaitingFor says:

    Yes, Khan was great!

  228. MD says:


    I give the first (77) one a B+, maybe A-. The second one was my favorite – a solid A. Return of the Jedi a C. The fourth one was a D. I stopped watching after that because I thought Lucas ruined the entire franchise. BTW – I am the owner of a Star Wars #1 comic book from 77 or 78 published by Marvel. Around $40.

  229. Wes says:

    I disagree, So. Only Star Wars and Empire Strikes Back (the originals) appeal to me. I loathe the other movies.

  230. MD says:

    I prefer Magneto because there is a good reason for his evil.

  231. Tim V says:

    Wes says:
    December 23, 2011 at 3:10 pm
    God created Satan knowing Satan would corrupt the universe though, Tim. Ergo, how is God absolved of culpability? He looks like a willful conspirator to me.

    You know Wes, I just ran an errand and was thinking… If God created man and man was good, what happened ? All I know is God is good but there are many questions, I have no answers for.

  232. Wes says:

    Khan or Unicron?

  233. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    Bunus favorite villan was Mr Schindler.

  234. Corey says:

    I don’t know how much Nancy Reagan had to do with the Gipper supposedly not campaigning as hard as he should have.

    1984 has been written about before though in regards to Ed Rollins wanting to get a 50 state sweep and sending the President to campaign in Minnesota instead of elsewhere where he might have helped other Republicans.

    At the time of the 1986 midterms, Reagan was pretty unpopular relatively speaking and might have done more harm than good in some parts of the country.

  235. Tim V says:

    who is dr. doom ?

  236. MD says:

    Corey – he didn’t spend that much time on the road. After he was shot, Nancy became very active in making certain he wasn’t used too much. Not that I blame her.

  237. Wes says:

    Magneto was a dumbed down villain in the X-Men series when I was a kid. I preferred Apocalypse. He kicked ass and took names and never questioned why he was pure evil.

  238. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    238…please no….

    Next topic:
    Most overated movie?

  239. Wes says:

    Dr. Doom is the villain from Fantastic Four. His original design inspired Darth Vader’s look.

  240. Corey says:

    Most overated movie?

    1. Napolean Dynamite
    2. E.T.

  241. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    Pulp fiction & Lord of the Rings movies.

  242. MD says:

    Corey – his ratings plummeted at the end of 06 because of Iran Contra. Up until that point he was still around 60%. 87 and 88 represented low points. The scandal broke late enough that I don’t think that affected the voting that year.

  243. Wes says:

    Avatar and Titanic are easily the most overrated movies ever.

  244. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    I agree with N. dynomite….not on ET

  245. Sothisishopeandchange says:

    I liked avatar if you ignore all the politics

  246. MD says:

    I liked that Magneto had reasons Wes. I once had the #94 Uncanny X-men that was the first issue with the new X-men. I sold it 15 years ago for $125. I bet it is worth a fortune today. I need Christmas money.

  247. Wes says:

    The Dark Knight was highly overrated in my view (despite the conservative message underpinning the movie).

  248. MD says:

    I thought Dynamite sucked the first time I saw it. Funnier the next time.

  249. Wes says:

    I never cared for Napoleon Dynamite.

  250. Corey says:

    In 1986, the economy in many states, especially the Farm Belt was pretty bad, and that is where the Dems made much of their Senate gains. Reagan was not popular there for those reasosn.

    Republicans did pretty well in Gubernatorial elections in 1986, interestingly enough. George H.W. Bush worked very hard to elect a lot of Governors.

  251. MD says:

    Reagan was still personally very popular though. He just wasn’t used enough and was doing international travel.

  252. Wes says:

    Dems won a grand total of two Senate seats in the Farm Belt in 1986, Corey–both because of Republican incumbents’ being undercut by members of their own party. The biggest concentration of losses was in the South, where Republicans shed four seats.

  253. SUSYQUE says:

    WSJ Kimberley Strassel:

    If Republicans want to take the White House or the Senate, the next 11 months have to be an exercise in crisp compare-and-contrast. They have to explain Mr. Obama’s tax and regulatory and energy and health-care policy and make the “moral” argument against it. But to do that effectively they must simultaneously embrace and sell their own sweeping alternative vision of the universe. If Mitt Romney thinks he can win by out-pandering Mr. Obama with the middle class, he’s never seen Democrats pander. All he does is muddy a debate that demands clarity.


  254. MD says:

    Corey – I will give you North and South Dakota but the other losses were not farm issues as far as I can tell. It was a disaster for the GOP but not unexpected.

  255. Corey says:

    He also had gotten a bit older too. In regards to travel, the story was that Nancy relied on astrological charts in order to determine what would be the safest days for him to go somewhere.

    He was very much misserved during those years when Don Regan was the Chief of Staff. His Presidency and popularity was able to rebound at the end once Regan was gone.

  256. Corey says:

    What were the other Senate seats the Republicans lost in 1986? If someone can do the research.. I think I have read in the past about individual circumstances.

  257. Corey says:

    What were the other Senate seats the Republicans lost in 1986? If someone can do the research.. I think I have read in the past about individual circumstances regarding them.

  258. Wes says:

    GOP Senate losses in 1986:


    GOP gain that year:


    Nothing to indicate the GOP went South because of the Farm Belt that year.

  259. MD says:

    I don’t think I voted in the 86 election. I was busy with other stuff but I do remember thinking that I would consider Edgar over Specter. Edgar was my House rep and the guy had constituent services second to none.

  260. MD says:


    FL, GA, WA (Slade Gorton – surprised me even then). Have to look up the rest.

  261. MD says:

    Wes beat me to it.

  262. Wes says:

    Or you can just read Post 267, MD.

  263. MD says:

    uh, that was the year Reid got into office. The only way he is leaving is in a pine box.

  264. Corey says:

    Jeremiah Denton lost in 1986 in Alabama because he basically said men should be allowed to rape their wives. I think Paula Hawkins in FL was considered a weak candidate who lost to a popular Governor.

  265. MD says:


    Funny that strategy is basically a failure in any decade since suffrage but someone always seems to give it a shot.

  266. Corey says:

    1986 was before I was following politics, but I have just never heard the theory expressed regarding that year that Reagan needed to campaign more or did not campaign enough to save any of those seats.

  267. Wes says:

    Dems carried the overall Senate vote by less than 50,000 votes in 1986. The elections didn’t seem to be a rejection of the GOP per se but more a reaction to rookie Senators who didn’t know how to shore up their political bases. ND and SD went as they did because of extraneous issues. MD went as it did because only Mathias could win. He retired because Strom Thurmond shut him out of chairing Judiciary. Laxalt in NV retired because he was tired of the Senate. He would have been Senator for life otherwise.

  268. MD says:

    What a shocker from the guy who has given 3X as much in contribs to the Dems as compared to the R’s!


  269. J T says:

    Trump is a Chump!! Good riddance

  270. Corey says:

    Donald Trump is an attention whore, nothing more, nothing less.

    His feelings are hurt because the GOP candidates put the kibosh on his debate.

    He will go all thru May saying he may run as an Independent, but he won’t.

  271. Wes says:

    Has JulStol been reached for comment yet, MD?

  272. Corey says:

    Jul should change his Facebook profile picture.

  273. MD says:

    Corey – if you talk to people who were involved in the process back then, they will say that Reagan could have made a big difference. He was busy in meetings with Gorbechev in October and from what I have heard was tired.

  274. MD says:

    I don’t care about Trump. Not worth the time.

  275. J T says:

    What is Bigger?

    Trump’s Ego or, his Daughter’s implants?

  276. MD says:

    Bitter – I hardly ever go on FB and I actually hate it but I went to check on Jul and I think he de-friended me. I can’t figure that guy out.

    FWIW – I am considering deactivating my FB. I really don’t want to know when someone has gas.

  277. Corey says:

    Will 2012 be the year I finally give in to joining Facebook?

  278. MD says:

    Don’t do it. I have a whole bunch of friend requests that I am ignoring. I really don’t care to follow the minute by minute details of someone’s life.

  279. Corey says:

    If people are talking on Facebook about when they have gas, maybe I’ll pass.

    Wait.. that didn’t sound right.

  280. pitchaboy says:

    I have categorically maintained that Obama will be beaten comfortably unless there is a miraculous turnaround in the economy or a conveninet third party candidate. Trump, a closet democrat, is to Obama as Perot was to Clinton.

  281. Wes says:

    New thread.

  282. MD says:

    Yea Pitch – for you to win our bet, Romney has to win by more than 4. Good luck with that.

  283. Knighthawk says:

    1. Napolean Dynamite

  284. Knighthawk says:

    Avatar and Titanic are easily the most overrated movies ever.

    Without taking too much time to think about it I tend to agree.