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Obama Leads GOP in PA, Keeps It Close in TN

No Arizona or Michigan polls to start the day with, but there is a new poll from Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania done by Muhlenberg College for Morning Call showing neither Romney or Santorum will have much of a chance against Barack Obama in November.

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Rick Santorum (R) 41%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 37%

If Santorum had decided to take on Bob Casey again, a man he lost to by 18% six years ago, he would still lose.

US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College)
Bob Casey (D-inc) 44%
Rick Santorum (R) 36%

This poll was done February 15-21 among 625 registered voters. Also out this morning is a new poll from Vanderbilt University showing Rick Santorum as the clear leader among Republicans who want to make him the face of the Republican Party.

PRESIDENT – TENNESSEE – GOP PRIMARY (Vanderbilt)
Rick Santorum 33%
Mitt Romney 17%
Ron Paul 13%
Newt Gingrich 10%

PRESIDENT – TENNESSEE (Vanderbilt)
Rick Santorum (R) 42%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 38%

Mitt Romney (R) 42%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 39%

Ron Paul (R) 40%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 39%

Newt Gingrich (R) 41%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 38%

This poll was done February 16-22 among 1508 registered voters. The more we see states that Republican should win easily as close as this poll shows, the more we are seeing what a blowout 2012 is going to really be.

Daytona 500 today (although rain seems to be forecast) will keep me somewhat distracted, but I will post new Michigan and Arizona polls as they become available….

Posted by Dave at 9:13 am
Filed under: General | Comments (81)

81 Responses to “Obama Leads GOP in PA, Keeps It Close in TN”

  1. Wobbles says:

    This shows that we need a brokered convention.

  2. MFG says:

    What do you mean Dave you’re predicting an Obama landslide?

  3. WeNeedANewCandidate says:

    Ronald Reagan is the guy we need…

  4. david d says:

    It is way too early to predict a blowout by Obama…however, I think what Dave is saying and I concur…that if an incompetent, pathetic, socialist administration as this has been, is still even close in the polls tells you how far our country has slid…And I am not so sure it will ever recover. With the govt a giant behemoth now and so many on the dole with even more to come when obama care kicks into high gear and the class warfare attack against the middle and upper classes to fork over and support the govt, we could be seeing the last throws of American free enterprise, capitalism, republicanism, limited govt going to it’s death. If we lose it, American is no more. European socialism will have completely taken over. Obama will rule over the complete demise of America as it was founded and intended to be.

  5. Wobbles says:

    Are RTD2 and Robbotie related?

  6. bob says:

    Rasmussen DTP:

    Obama 45 Romney 43

    Obama 47 Santorum 42

    Obama approval/disapproval:

    46/53

    Obama has fallen 4 points in approval in the past 72 hours.

    Obama is DEFINITELY not a cinch for re-election.

  7. Scott says:

    Here we go again with Ras’ polling.Today,he has the Mittster down by 2 against the Kenyan,whereas,three days ago,Obama was up by 10 on Romney.Also,Santorum has closed to within 5 of the President.
    Obama’s approval/disapproval has fallen to 47%/53%,the first time it has been below a 48% approval in over a month.
    Ras’ polling is way too volatile to be taken seriously!

  8. Scott says:

    #7
    Me bad.Make Obama’s approval/ disapproval in today’s Ras poll 46%/53%.Sorry.

  9. bob says:

    I would be the first person to admit Obama would be in good shape if his poll numbers reflected that.

    But they don’t. And anyone who suggests now that Obama will blow out either Romney or Santorum simply doesn’t know what they are talking about.

    Now am I saying that Obama is sure to lose? No.

    But he is not sure of victory either.

    In sports, they call it a competitive game. That’s what we have.

  10. Robottie says:

    R2D2 is my second cousin …

  11. Wobbles says:

    The polling has not fully reflected the $4-$5 gasoline. It will definetly slow the economy and the stock market will get ugly.

  12. Brandon says:

    Brewer endorses Romney….

  13. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Shame on you Mr. Wissing and others here who think this year is going no be a blow out…No one knows yet what the hell will happen. As such, stop being downers!

    Foucs on the now and getting Romney nominated.

    I would also remind you all that these polls were done by a college and university – they’re not known for reputable polling and are probably hotbeds of adoration for President Apologia.

  14. david d says:

    #10…you are correct. It is a competetive game…that is what saddens me…it should not even be close. As horrible a president as Obama has been and he is competetive? Im not sure why anyone would want 4 more years of his leadership (or lack thereof)

  15. david d says:

    #14
    I don’t want to be a downer but college left leaning poll or not, there are stil way to many in favor of this failure as president. You are right that we have to get a nomimee and rally around him (Not so sure it should be Romney)…I will support whomever is the nominee (as long as it is not PAUL which there is no chance of that).

  16. Tim V says:

    I can support any of the remaining potential nominees except Ron Paul. Ron Paul’s foreign policy would be suicide. At the present time my preference is still Romney but I am begining to consider Santorum as a possibility. Let the primaries play out and we will have a nominee whether it be Romney, Santorum or Gingrich.

    How Obama can be competitive is beyond me but how he got elected in the first place was also beyond my comprehension.

  17. bio mom says:

    Since when does Vanderbilt do polling? So it is not only a college poll but also a newbie college poll.

  18. mnw says:

    It isn’t that America has slid, exactly. It’s the demographic change.

    Read “Mexifornia.” THAT’S why zero is even competitive.

  19. CAgopguy says:

    How do you poll a current senator and an ex-senator who is running for president and come up with 20% undecided? It’s not as if they lack name recognition.

  20. Wobbles says:

    So, in 2008 when gasoline were at the same levels, the media blamed the President for being in the pocket of big oil. Will they do the same to the current occupant?

  21. Pitchaboy says:

    The eeyores are becoming unbearable. Obama will lose handily. I do not see him taking FL VA NC NH and OH to nAme a few states

  22. dylan says:

    Romney/santorum need to sell why obama is responsible for gas prices. They have not effectively made that “sell” and they need to “close”. Glengarry style. Coffee is for closers only.

  23. SUSYQUE says:

    Brewer endorses Romney in Arizona presidential primary

    PHOENIX — Republican Gov. Jan Brewer on Sunday endorsed Mitt Romney in Arizona’s presidential primary, saying the former Massachusetts governor “is the man that can carry the day.”
    “More than that, he has that pro-business background and that political history that he would serve America the best of all the candidates,” Brewer said. “Mitt is by far the person that can go in and win.
    The endorsement in advance of Tuesday’s Arizona primary came during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press”, and four days after Romney and three rivals appeared in a debate in Mesa, Ariz.

    http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/d8de40b533404d1d8935ee927f034b83/AZ–Romney-Endorsement-Brewer/

  24. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Romney is the only electable option.

    Little Ricky & Grinch would lose 35+ states and have an adverse gender gap of 70% or worse with women. They would also lose Republicans like me who are put off by their extremism and intemperance.

    Romney will win men handily and will at least break even or better with women.

    Ron Paul is amusing but not serious.

  25. Tim V says:

    ELECTABILITY

    poll after poll after poll has shown Romney to be the most electable republican vs. Obama.

    is that still true ?

  26. janz says:

    Romney/Santorum seem to be locked more into social issue wars rather than turning the conversation towards more important topics such as gas prices.

    Just this morning there is a piece on Hot Air, by Bryan York, Romney/Santorum trade blasts on pro-life beliefs. This is a democratic-created dispute for the republicans to haggle over in their attempts to distract all attention away from Obama’s disasterous economic record. So far it seems to be working for him, too!

  27. Tim V says:

    http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/02/romney-more-electable-than-santorum.html

    Santorum has attracted a terrible reputation among the overclass. He is defined by his crude, bigoted social conservatism, which colors the broader perception of him as an extremist. This in turn leeches out into a sense, often reflected in news coverage, which likewise reflects the social biases of the overclass, that Santorum is a fringe candidate who would repel swing voters.

    In fact, there are, very roughly speaking, two kinds of swing voters. One kind is economically conservative, socially liberal swing voters. This is the kind of voter you usually read about, because it’s the kind most familiar to political reporters – affluent and college educated. But there’s a second kind of voter at least as numerous – economically populist and socially conservative. Think of disaffected blue-collar workers, downscale white men who love guns, hate welfare, oppose free trade, and want higher taxes on the rich and corporations. Romney appeals to the former, but Santorum more to the latter.

    As hard a time as Santorum would have closing the sale among certain moderate quarters, I don’t think it’s sunk in quite how poisoned Romney’s image has become among downscale voters. Coverage of Romney’s wealth, corporate history, and partially released tax situation coincided with, and almost certainly caused, a collapse in his support with white voters with income under $50,000. Republicans have enjoyed great success attracting downscale whites in recent years, but that success has hinged in part on things like not nominating standard-bearers who epitomize everything blue-collar whites distrust about their party.

  28. mnw says:

    Brewer’s endorsement of Romney may be a dog whistle to anti-illegal alien voters in AZ’s GOP primary: “If I trust him on immigration, so should you. Who has a stronger record on immigration than I do?”

  29. Scott says:

    #23-Dylan
    Romney was asked about high gas prices the other day and his answer was “increased demand in China and other emerging countries”. He placed ZERO blame on Obama.Of course, the Democrats would be just as understanding if a Republican were President!Mitt has got to toughen up against the Kenyan.

  30. CPA says:

    How did that endorsement by the SC Gov turn out?

  31. CPA says:

    Arizona looks like a 40-40-10-10 race and anything else will a variation off that result. If Santorum gets to 40% Robamaney will be in trouble. Anyway, if Robamaney wins Santorum will protest the winner-take-all format.

  32. CPA says:

    Plus “OUR” nominee gets 17% in TN 10 days before the election. Talk about the dogs not eating the dog food.

  33. mnw says:

    |”H|ow did that endorsement by the SC Gov turn out?”

    You miss my point. I said Brewer’s endorsement MIGHT be worth something to a discrete group of GOP primary voters concerned about a specific issue.

    That’s rather DIFFERENT than saying, “The governor’s endorsement will make it a Romney blowout.”

    Haley, as far as I know, didn’t have street creds on a hot-button issue of local importance, in the way that Brewer does on immigration.

  34. mnw says:

    Romney is not going to run well in southern GOP primaries, other than FL.

    That’s a problem he’ll have to work around.

  35. SUSYQUE says:

    Romney on Fox…Chris Wallace

  36. Tim V says:

    I can’t stand Maureen Dowd
    but, she can articulate the left fairly well

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/opinion/sunday/dowd-ghastly-outdated-party.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

    how the left will portray or candidates:

    Romney = richy rich, out of touch elitist,phony

    Sanrorum= Santimonious victorian prude

  37. SUSYQUE says:

    #36…People in the south want jobs. Romney is a job creator.

  38. Tim V says:

    chris wallace can be a leftist snit sometimes, seeking a “gotcha” quote/moment

  39. dylan says:

    Scott–if that is true and romney attempted to place zero blame on obama for the gas spike (regardless of whether a president can affect prices through good policies). It is utterly pathetic. Who the hell is advising this guy????????

  40. Robbie says:

    22.The eeyores are becoming unbearable. Obama will lose handily. I do not see him taking FL VA NC NH and OH to nAme a few states

    Comment by Pitchaboy — February 26, 2012 @ 10:27 am

    Of course, most of the commenters here said the same thing in 2008.

  41. Robbie says:

    Mike Murphy, former Romney consultant, suggests Romney is + 3 right now, but outcome could be determined by Democrats voting in the open primary.

  42. monetarist says:

    It’s not very complicated…

    Romney runs best in states north of the Mason-Dixon line and out West. He runs worst in the South.

    In the general election, Obama has zero chance of winning the South no matter who the nominee is.

    So… I wonder which Republican candidate is best positioned to win?

    The one that runs up massive wins in the South but alienates the rest of the country, or the one that wins the South simply because he’s a Republican and is most competitive everywhere else in America?

    Hmmm, that’s a mystery.

  43. Bitterlaw says:

    I just watched an HBO documentary on Joe Namath. It was excellent. I highly recommend it to those who have access to it. I was born in 1968 so I don’t really have any memory of him as a player. My dad always hated him because he remembered that Namath beat up a reporter. It is amusing to see the reaction to a football player getting a $200k signing bonus and making $75,000 a year.

  44. Robottie says:

    Must cheerlead for Mitt defeat

    Must pretend to be a Republican…

    Whiiiiiiiiiiiiiirrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…

  45. Bitterlaw says:

    I wish that all journalists were hard on candidates of both parties. There should be no safe havens. MSNBC should go after Republicans and Democrats. Fox should do the same. I know that is not the way it is but it is the way it should be.

  46. bio mom says:

    CPA You are really nuts if that is what you think about Arizona.

  47. Ben Romney says:

    In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president leads Mitt Romney 45% to 43%. That matches the closest Romney has been since February 2!
    If Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 47% to 42%.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

  48. Robottie says:

    We should go back to the 19th century when there was no such thing as “journalism”

    Newspapers cheerled for parties and did so openly

    Much more honest

    “Journalism” never existed and never will

  49. Tim V says:

    monetarist, who runs better in ohio, pa, michigan,wisconsin,iowa,indianna-romney or santorum ? no question mitt runs better in NH.

  50. bio mom says:

    Romney talked about the Keystone pipeline and that the increase in leases was inherited from Bush and that Obama has reduced the number under his watch. Said these things today on Fox News Sunday.

    I always find it best to listen to the candidates myself rather than taking the word of others about what they may or may not have said.

  51. dylan says:

    Bio mom–the problem is this needs to be a MANTRA with romney–not some ome off statement when and if he is asked on occasion. Romney has been very weak staying on a winning message. He is on track to–at best–win a set of ateak knifes.

  52. janz says:

    I did not catch Romney’s interview on FOX this morning, but hope to see it on the Fox Sunday’s web cast. Santorum on MTP this morning, though, gave a strong performance. And, I thought it was a subtle swipe when Gregory added that Romney has been invited many times on MTP but has always declined.

  53. Tim V says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    February 26, 2012 at 11:42 am
    I wish that all journalists were hard on candidates of both parties

    wishfull thinking. 90-95% of journalists lean strongly to the left. that’s how they were educated at journalism school and that’s how their peers in the workplace think.

    they cheerleaded for obama and will do so again.

  54. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V. – You miserable @#^#^@%%@. I didn’t say it would happen. I said I wish it could happen. Let’s flame each other for 300 posts over it.

  55. monetarist says:

    Tim V

    The Fox News poll had Romney and Santorum both winning Ohio.

    The Rasmussen poll had Romney performing better by 5 points in Santorum’s home state of Pennslyvania.

    The DMR poll had Romney and Santorum both winning Iowa.

    I haven’t seen a poll of Indiana. I don’t think that state will be all the close in November.

    We agree that Romney runs better in NH and Santorum has a 0% chance of taking NH (making his path to 270 much more difficult).

    Rasmussen shows Romney running stronger in Virginia, another vital state.

    Here’s the thing: Mitt is a well known commodity. Santorum is still pretty new to voters, and his radicalism is only now beginning to show.

    In addition, USA Today, Gallup, and Rasmussen all show Romney running stronger nationally as well.

    Once Santorum’s views become more widely known, he is simply unelectable. He is a radical, no ifs, ands, or butts.

    And as we know, I’m no big fan of Romney.

  56. janz says:

    The mantra that is being stated, over and over again, by dems and the press, is that oil prices are a by-product of global pricing, rather than a dearth of local drilling. On This Week, it was said that if all the oil leases were acted upon, that oil prices would, at best, drop 3 cents. As an augmentation of that prediction, a corollary was drawn between how little oil prices dropped when the US went into it’s oil reserves to help gas prices.

  57. janz says:

    #58 Monetarist

    That was a good analysis of the candidates and the states.

  58. Ray Tuleya says:

    Dave, even in Pennsylvania, this is not “great” news for Obama. An old rule is if the incumbent is polling less than 50% this far out of the election, it is not good news.

    If you are talking Tennessee, remember it was a little more than a generation ago that Tennessee was a solid Democrat voting state.

    I agree with you that Mitt Romney is a better candidate and would make a better President. However, even though I don’t think Rick Santorum would win the “popular” vote, I still think he should win the election. He has to win Ohio and Florida. I don’t care if Obama wins California by 10 million votes.

  59. Tim V says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    February 26, 2012 at 12:07 pm
    Tim V. – You miserable @#^#^@%%@. I didn’t say it would happen. I said I wish it could happen. Let’s flame each other for 300 posts over it.

    bitter, i run out of flame after about 6 posts so here is flame 1-

    YOU FREAKIN PHILLY A HOLE,

    I READ YOUR BOOK ( the one about the 3rd best rack) you non-magnificant a-hole !!!

  60. Tim V says:

    60- I second that opinion. nice job money !

  61. Tim V says:

    santorum is still being vetted

  62. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V. – I’m lazy. Here goes:

    You crazy fat mf-er. I hope you go to Heaven. Go today for all I care.

    Cream soda.

  63. Tim V says:

    flame 2- i hope you get snake handled :)

    preferably by a …ess

  64. Tim V says:

    > accepts cream soda.

    peace on earth goodwill to men

  65. Tim V says:

    You crazy fat mf-er.

    I have lost 17 lbs. since 12/26/11

  66. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V.- good news on the weight loss. Of course, it could be cancer. Good luck.

  67. jason says:

    ” Mike Murphy, former Romney consultant, suggests Romney is + 3 right now, but outcome could be determined by Democrats voting in the open primary”

    Wobbie posted this.

    If Santorum wins Michigan because of Democrats voting for him in the open primary, watch the Troll explain to us how this shows Romney is a “weak” candidate.

  68. jason says:

    ” Brewer endorses Romney….”

    Darn RINOS….

  69. lisab says:

    “I do not see him taking FL VA NC NH and OH to nAme a few states”

    santorum would probably lose NH by at least 5%

    mccain lost it by 10%

    and he was not openly religious

  70. monetarist says:

    Thanks!

  71. Robottie says:

    Pope Ricky doubles down on dumbfuqq over and over and over again

    Insane…

  72. Robbie says:

    If Santorum wins Michigan because of Democrats voting for him in the open primary, watch the Troll explain to us how this shows Romney is a “weak” candidate.

    Comment by jason — February 26, 2012 @ 12:52 pm

    You make laugh every time you post. I relayed what Mike Murphy tweeted and you went bonkers. Guess the Mittbots are feeling the heat.

    When Romney wins Tuesday night, and he will, you’ll be singing happy days are here again and will try and tell us this means Michigan is in play in the general election.

  73. bio mom says:

    Romney 31

    Santorum 29

    Gingrich 15

    Today from gallup. 5 day average

  74. Robottie says:

    Must denigrate Romney!

    Must denigrate Romney

    Beep beep beep

    Whirrrrrrrrr….

  75. Todd McCain says:

    33. Based on what? Romney has lead every poll out of AZ. It’s more like 40-30-15-15

  76. Tim V says:

    click whirrrr newwwww threadddddd

  77. Jerry muthertruckin' Cruncher says:

    Someone cook me breakfast