Obama Leads GOP in PA
Public Policy Polling has come out with a new poll for the state of Pennsylvania showing Barack Obama ahead of all the Republican challengers including Mr. Pennsylvania himself, Rick Santorum.
PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Rick Santorum (R) 46%Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Ron Paul (R) 41%Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Newt Gingrich (R) 39%PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Rick Santorum 43%
Mitt Romney 25%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Ron Paul 9%
This poll was done March 8-11 among 689 registered voters and an oversample of 564 primary voters.
One
Thread rule
Predict the spin when Mitt wins ms tonight
47/47 approval disapproval as the most polarizing president ever (read: New York and California are disproportionately represented in the approval ratings) and somehow he is at or near 50% in all swing states.
Creative statistics!
Summum bonum, the highest good for
our country, led by President Mitt Romney
in 2012!
PPP putting its thumb on the scales once again hoping that nobody notices when the real results come in.
We are to believe that Little Ricky who got blown out in PA in 06 is within the margin of error but the moderate Romney is 7 behind Obama?
Is that laughing I hear. Ricky must be playing very well in the Philly burbs.
I stand by my prediction that Romney wins PA. Santorum is hated by the women in the suburbs (except for the ones who Juls said were less educated – that was his description and not mine).
Ricky is barely at 40% against Obama much less having 46% that PPP is showing. Especially with the crazy stuff he has said he would do worse then McCain in PA.
Exactly who is PPP fooling?
SD Primary and President:
Romney: 33%
Santorum: 24%
Paul: 09%
Gingrich:09%
45% Santorum
33% Obama
44% Romney
35% Obama
NBP released Friday the results of a poll it conducted between Feb. 15-17. Officials say they selected registered South Dakota voters are random. The question on choosing a GOP candidate drew 302 responses, with a margin of error of 5.64 percent. The question on a head-to-head race drew 559 responses, with a margin of error of 4.15 percent.
http://www.kdlt.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15627&Itemid=57
it took them a month to release the poll?
Let me get this straight. Somehow Jensen would have us believe that Santorum would run significantly better in Pa than Romney? For that to happen, Santorum would have to be running better in the Philly suburbs than Romney. Yeah, right!!
Times like this when I wish MD was back so he could punch holes in this bogus poll of his home state.. Since he’s not, I guess I’ll hav to do it.
This doesn’t pass the smell test in the suburbs. it just doesn’t.
Whatever, PA is pipe dream for the GOP either way.
11…yes and no. The GOP candidate gets PA if the whole thing is a blow-out anyway. I mean if Mitt keeps Massachusetts in single digit margin, makes MI too close to call, and easily wins NH, OH, FL, VA and NC, then PA could fall. If the election is at all close, then we probably don’t get PA.
Mitt all the way!
Gallup: National:
Romney: 32%
Santorum: 27%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 12%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
#12, right. But I think the only way Mitt et. al. wins is if it’s close. I’d be shellshocked if this was a blowout year for GOP in POTUS.
Is it 5 hours till closing of precincts?
MS and AL both close at 8PM EDT.
Brandon Marshall traded to the Bears. Wow.
Not a shock, stupid people need to be hit in the head with a brick to make change, thats why health costs and everything else was deferred till after the election
PPP Jensen is muff garbage.
For two number 3′s
Makes sense they have no receivers but without young blood coming in via the draft how will the Cutlerettes get younger?
They’re still trying to get Mario Williams also, that would be something Peppers & Williams together
I don’t see how that makes sense for Miami at all. Are they trying to get worse?
I thought it was 8 A.M. close time, no?
#23 – should have refreshed first.
Maybe they can’t get Manning and ditched him for salary cap reasons?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nrqUHEj-Zw&feature=player_embedded
-Lovie Smith making a video for AfricanAmericansForObama.
Remember PPP’s mad dash of polls the weekend before the midterm and how they all conveniently showed Republicans doing better in most of them.
Another reason to hate the Cutlerettes
Rumor is that Manning didn’t want to play with Marshall. This shows how utterly desperate the Fins are to snag him.
A GREAT move for the Bears obviously.
That Lovie is an Obama Boot Licker. He Was only Hired because he is Black.
When will Manning decide?
31.When will Manning decide?
-If he is a Democrat, WEDNESDAY, November 7, 2012!
While I’m not saying PA is going R this year, you cannot ignore the changing demographics. The Democratic Party has made the conscious decision to ignore white working class folks and become the party of the poor, the young, and the minorities. There are many, many working class white folks in PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, and IA. These states will be moving to the R column over the next few cycles if the Democrats continue on the path they are on.
And don’t think these switches can’t happen rapidly. Vermont went Republican in every election (except 1964) from 1860-1988. Bush41 won VT in ’88 then lost to Clinton by 16 points in ’92. By ’96, the spread was already over 20 points. MO, as well, has gone from a historical bellwether to reliable Republican in a matter of a couple elections. Voting patterns aren’t set in stone – they are always changing.
I do not pretend to know what will happen in November. The boundaries that I see are:
On the good side: Mitt wins in a modest landslide, capturing 363 EVs including these states: FL, NH, NC, VA, OH, IA, WI, CO, NV, PA, MI, ME, MN, NM and OR. Other blue states were suprisingly close, and the GOP stomps further down the ballot. This happens if the middle east continues to disintigrate, and both Jews and Catholics turn against Obama as he continues to poke them in the eye throughout the campaign. Then gas soars beyond $5 a gallon and stays there throughout campaign, and unemployment does not improve, and housing values continue to decline, and more bailouts are demanded.
On the bad side: Obama wins, getting all the states he got last time, except losing IN which flips back red. This happens if unemployment gets back down under 8% in a bogus calculation, and people believe we are on the cusp of recovery. Gas prices get back down, and the middle-east suddenly becomes quiet again. At this extreme, the GOP does hold the house, but fails to capture the senate.
REALITY: What will happen will be somewhere between these poles.
This isn’t about Romney winning PA, but common sense. Common sense would tell us that Santorum who was defeated in a historic landslide not that not ago is not 2% behind Obama. In a state were the Philly suburbs decide the election.
PPP is complete B.S with it’s thumb on the scale pushing an agenda.
From the Baton Rouge Business Report:
“Oops! An independent group backing Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination has started sending out mailers to Louisiana voters in advance of the state’s March 24 primary—but didn’t quite get the details right for advising voters. Restore Our Future, a super PAC helping to finance television ads, automated phone calls and direct mail to support Romney, told voters in the Louisiana mailer they should vote for Romney on Tuesday, March 24. But the primary actually falls on a Saturday, not Tuesday. The mailer went out around north Louisiana, criticizing Rick Santorum as a big-spending Washington insider and calling Romney, the front-runner, a strong conservative leader. No word yet on whether a new mail piece will go out to the same homes to tell people the correct voting day.”
Is this an attempt at one of those Gingrich supporters vote on Tuesday, Republicans on Saturday flyers that we hear about every 4 years? Not really sure what to expect here in Louisiana. I have been getting Robo-calls from Gingrich and his ads are all over local talk radio stations here in town. I was polled (I think we all know how painful that can be) by what appeared to be a Romney firm. I was asked to press a corresponding number for the candidate for whom I was likely to vote. Then when I pressed it asked me if i was “aware of” a list of negative traits about the candidate I selected. I think everyone here seems resigned to Romney as the nominee not sure how that will translate on voting day.
Jan nails it.
DRUDGE POLLING DATA SHOWS ROMNEY TO SCORE WINS IN AL, MS… DEVELOPING…
So far and since it began, DRUDGE data has correctly predicted every outcome on primary day…
Exits leaking:
81% Evangelicals in MS
73% Evangelicals in AL
CNN exit: 45% in Mississippi said religious beliefs mattered “a great deal.”
CNN exit of Alabama: 66% of voters are Republican, 28% are independent, 6% are Democrats.
CNN exit of Mississippi: 80% of voters are Republican, 17% independent, 4% Democrat.
CNN exit of Alabama Republicans (not indies, Dems): Santorum 34%.. Gingrich 31%… Romney 31%
ppppolls: Romney leads Santorum by 4 in NC poll we’ll release tomorrow…10 point shift from a week and a half ago…Newt 3rd
For reference, the PPP polls had 68% Evangelicals in AL and 70% in MS.
<= Romney supporter.
Yes, both Romney & Santorum should win Pennsylvania. However, it is Ohio that will detemine the winner. Don't discount Santorum in PA. HE did win twice and you have to remember how conservative Casey SR was.
And, don't get into an idea that Obama wins if he gets the unemployment under 8%. They have already been massaging the numbers, of course the official stats will be under 8%. FIVE PERCENT is where it should be. Obama has NO chance to win in N.C., for example.
#45, if Romney or Santo win PA, which I doubt, then they will not NEED Ohio.
Gotta run. Back later.
Drudge is just a fun internet poll. I’d love it to be true. However, now that they are highlighting Ron Paul will be winning those polls soon. His followers flood internet polls.
If they win PA, they will have already won Ohio. Very similar, but bigger Democrat votes out of Philly.
Jefferson county Iowa convention just finished and Paul took 100% of delegates.
Today on Hannity, he was talking to two pollsters.
One fellow is on Hannity’s night show often. He is a Dem pollster and is taking about starting a third party with Huntsman and I didn’t get the other name. Hannity said “I’ll never forgive you if you do that.”
#50, keep on dreaming, Bunu.
*talking
There is a new Reuters/Ipsos Poll which shows Obama’s approval/disapproval at 50%/ 48%,respectively.
But catch this–the Party ID is 51.1% Dem,38.8% Rep and the rest Indies.
WHAT A DISGRACE!!!
Romney winning tonight. Alabama willbe tight
How many hours to go till the polls close?
Susy, read the thread once in a while.
#54, heh, with those cross tabs, Barry should be well above 50% approval! What a joke.
Intrade
AL
Romney 55.5%
Gingrich 25.5%
Santorum 15.4%
MS
Romney 67.1%
Gingrich 25.0%
Santorum 8.0%
#38 waingro
Keeping fingers crossed that Drudge is right!
Republican primary voters in Alabama and Mississippi say being able to defeat President Obama in 2012 is the most important quality in a Republican presidential candidate, according to CBS News early exit polls.
In Alabama, thirty-nine percent of voters said defeating Mr. Obama was the most important candidate quality; in Mississippi, 42 percent of Republican primary voters said the same thing.
Don’t discount the idea that Paul supporters will win delegates in Caucus states beyond what they “won”. If this happens as much as I expect, it will kill off most caucuses for 2016.
It is strange that Brett is not reflecting what Drudge is saying.
For the savvy on here…what would Drudge know that they don’t know?
Scott do not get upset. Put all poll numbers into a D/R/I of 35/35/30 and get your results
5 PM ET: NETWORK EXITS SHOW ALABAMA TIGHT; ROMNEY TAKES MISSISSIPPI… DEVELOPING…
DRUDGE POLLING DATA:
AL
ROMNEY 32.07%
SANTORUM 25.24%
GINGRICH 23.6%
MS
ROMNEY 33.55%
GINGRICH 24.62%
SANTORUM 22.15%
I’ve just looked at the exit data released by Fox and CNN. It suggests to me Santorum will win Alabama while Santorum and Romney are neck and neck in Mississippi. The numbers didn’t look so good for Newt.
I’m going to take another look though.
Where is Romney stumping from tonight?
Man if he can pull off THIS trifecta (including Hawaii), I see a HUGE celebration speech coming.
They both close at 8 Susy.
Im not gonna believe Romney is winning until its declared. But how delisious would it be if Santorum came in third in both?
56.How many hours to go till the polls close?
57.Susy, read the thread once in a while.
103.SUSYQUE on Twitter – a match made in Heaven!
-maybe we should start with an abacus.
Please, let’s not cite Drudge’s online polls as anything that’s news worthy. They’re less reputable than Zogby’s online junk.
Where is Romney stumping from tonight?
Man if he can pull off THIS trifecta (including Hawaii), I see a HUGE celebration speech coming.
Comment by Waingro — March 13, 2012 @ 6:10 pm
He’s actually not holding a rally anywhere. That’s what I read earlier today.
Until Mitt starts hitting 45% or more in primaries and caucuses, this race won’t be over because he won’t be gaining the delegates needed. The math is the math.
A win for Mitt tonight would be big, but there is no incentive for his challengers to drop out. The proportional voting rules have made this a marathon, not a sprint.
I know this will infuriate the Mitt fans, but Newt and Santorum have a very plausible, although not a likely path, to block Romney from 1144.
In 2008, men made up 53% of the #ALprimary electorate. CNN #exitpolls are saying @newtgingrich carried the male vote, 34%, Santo 30%
Romney wins 65+ vote in #ALprimary per CNN #exitpolls. Romney 37%< Newt 31%, Santo 27%. #tcot #gop2012
NEWT GINGRICH CARRIED MEN in #ALprimary per CNN #exitpolls. Newt 34%, Santo 30%, Mitt 29% #tcot #gop2012
Santorum wins rural voters in #ALprimary per CNN #exitpolls. Santo 32, Newt 31, Romney 30. These numbers look very strong for Romney #tcot
Romney wins urban voters in #ALprimary per CNN #exitpolls, w/ 37% of vote. Santo 36%, Newt 20% #gop2012 #tcot
2012 #ALprimary electorate LESS EVANGELICAL than in '08. 73% identify as Evangelical per CNN #exitpolls, 77% did so in 2008. + for Romney
#72 And Ron Paul may win Hawaii
#69…NYCmike…Greetings! 2.5 hours to go.
Sure hope Drudge is correct about Romney being ahead.
Hope all is well with you.
Lookin’Good SUSYQUE! Greetings from the Center of the Universe, I am glad we are on the same page!
What does #tcot mean?
Jeez, Susy, can you not tell time or what?
Possibility Of A Third-Party Candidate?
Sean invited political consultants Doug Schoen and Ed Rollins to the show to discuss the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Sean asked the experts whether or not it would be beneficial to the party if the candidates took the race all the way to the Republican convention. Sean also addressed the possibility of a third party candidate jumping in to the presidential race, which both guests felt is likely. You can listen to the entire discussion with Schoen and Rollins….. Go Here for the rest of the post.
http://www.hannity.com/videos/?uri=channels/400391/1623039%20
Dining on NY strips and truffles, Biden tells $10K-a-plate donors GOP doesn’t get ‘average folks’…
Just think how many condoms that would pay for for all those poor college students…It’s all about the children.
Santorum seems to be winning all of the demographics in Alabama.
73 – those are good numbers for Mitt, jan. The rural numbers are telling. 32% for Santorum and 30% for Romney. Santorum should be killing it in the rural areas.
#77 Don’t type it in the “Your Comment” box…type it in google.
#78…EML..sorry you find me irritable. If you asked me the time, I will tell you and not put you down. I would tell you whenever you would ask. At any rate, I like reading your posts. (:-)
http://www.google.com
No Robbie. Mitt is winning urban and post graduate and over 100kand over 65 according to CNN
http://www.ibopezogby.com/news/2012/03/08/65-believe-obama-likely-be-re-elected/
No Robbie. Mitt is winning urban and post graduate and over 100kand over 65 according to CNN
Comment by bio mom — March 13, 2012 @ 6:37 pm
Of course, Mitt has won those groups in every state. Was discouting it for that reason, but good point.
rural #’s look bad for Santorum…I would like to see better urban numbers for Romney…most elections are won in the suburbs, though.
This could go either way.
Robbie, That may please you but it will only help Obama.
ogby:
Romney: 30%
Santorum: 29%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 16%
http://www.ibopezogby.com/news/2012/03/08/65-believe-obama-likely-be-re-elected/
Romney is inMissouri today I think and then fundraising somewhere else.
89 – Mitt doesn’t necessarily do well in urban districts. He lost MI-13 in Detroit and OH-03 in Columbus to Santorum due to Operation Chaos. He has been cleaning up in the suburbs.
Exits are not the Drudge poll. I cannot believe R can win these deep South state. He just needs second and raking in more delegates.
I just voted for Romney in AL.
Romney did pretty well in the cities pre-operation hilarity…now that edge has been blunted by crossovers.
But yes, you are right…I am cautiously optimistic
Robbie, That may please you but it will only help Obama.
Comment by bio mom — March 13, 2012 @ 6:40 pm
Yep, I would be pleased because. I’m not rolling over for Romney until I must.
I will believe Romney takes one of these states when I SEE IT….
CBO NEARLY DOUBLES OBAMACARE ESTIMATE…
$1.76 TRILLION OVER 10 YEARS!
Romney is not the issue Robbie. Defeating Obama is.
#95…JMC…Good for You!
98 – it really would be a huge upset for Mitt to win either of these states. Regardless, he looks to get a good share of the delegates. A win here would look good on the map though.
I plead with you all please dont feed Robbie. He craves attention and likes stiring the pot. Please just ignore him and maybe he’ll go away to Daikykos were he belongs.
Looks like Gingrioh… will come in 3rd in both states. Put a nail in that coffin thank goodness.
Somebody asket about Mr. Roboto’s appearances in MO 2day:
Romney was in Kirkwood, MO, for a rally in a park, before his FR.
Kirkwood is a not-very-upscale St. Louis suburb.
I’d LOVE to help my fellow HHRers analyze returns this evening, but… they DROP THE PUCK in Chicago in an hour & a half, you see. BLOOZ!
Romney endorsed by PA reps Bill Shuster, Charlie Dent, and Jim Gerlach
“Governor Romney is best suited to fix our economy,” Gerlach said. “Pennsylvanians want a leader in the White House that will have a bold plan to create jobs, bring home energy security, and right our country’s financial ship. Governor Romney is that leader.”
http://pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/breaking/s_786260.html
Hello.
I received my first anti-Santorum robocall from the Romney campaign here in Illinois.
Also, Ron Paul has been endorsed by gadfly Illinois Congressman Tim Johnson.
Based on everything that has been said on here and elsewhere about the GOP primary over the past several months, it’s amazing that we are sitting here today considering that possibility that Mitt Romney may win either Mississippi or Alabama.
Barack Obama is in attendance right now watching Western Kentucky play Mississippi Valley State, the #67 and #68 teams in the tourney.
Does he have nothing better to do?
We need a brokered convention. I am back and gasoline hit FIVE in Los Angeles.
Santorum source on the exits:
Santorum ahead in AL
Romney with small lead in MS
A Santorum source is not a realiable source my dear. Try again.
#109:
Perhaps. On the other hand, he is appearing on National Television in the State of Ohio, at a very popular sporting event.
What President would pass that up? My guess would be none…..
Sorry my dear, take your condescension and shove it.
How is turnout in both states?
#114 Amen… let them find their own polls…
#113, people watch TruTV?
and sources
Happy birthday to John Hoeven
…and the blowhard Alan Grayson.
Santorum Tweet:
Will live on, we are going to the convention.
We were told for months and months, on here and elsewhere, that Romney would be completely shut out everywhere in the South, during the primaries.
Winning Mississippi would be a monumental primary achievement.
Me and my wife voted for Romney here in AL this morning. Hoping he pulls it off
…and the blowhard Alan Grayson.
65.Did you hear about the lawyer hurt in an accident?
An ambulance stopped suddenly.
Saw this earlier, figured it worked near that name!
#117:
I would imagine, with the NCAA on there, it is their biggest viewing audience of the year. Plus, all the Ohio news outlets will pick this up……..
Get your popcorn…30 minutes to go!
Corey Says
Simply put, Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum may all finish anywhere between first and third in both states on Tuesday. Gingrich needs the wins the most and Romney needs them the least. It would be beyond the wildest dreams of Romney supporters to think he could finish first in one or both of those very Deep South states. He will remain a clear frontrunner either way, despite the somewhat unfavorable portion of the primary and caucus calender in March, but if Romney finds a way to win those states, it will be taken as a sign that the race is nearly all over.
5 PM ET: NETWORK EXITS SHOW ALABAMA TIGHT; ROMNEY TAKES MISSISSIPPI… DEVELOPING…
Susy,thank you for being a loyal reader of my blog.
I think it’s basically you and my parents now…
tune in to the NCAA basketball game soon and you can hear your President.
127…Corey…don’t give up on your blog. Hope you didn’t mind my cut and paste. That paragraph caught my eye and it is so timely for tonight.
When you are away from HHR…I cannot get into your
blog, so I wait until I see your name and click on that.
#128….Yuck!
#122 thanks
No problem. You can always just bookmark it or do a Google search for cgpolitics.
Most people who stumble across my blog on Google are usually after American Idol information.
Why does it feel like Obama has spent more time today breaking down Western Kentucky and Mississippi Valley State that he has on gas prices or Afghanistan?
Ironically enough, after this game, Brigham Young University, alma mater of the person who will take Obama’s job, will be taking the court in Dayton.
New theory: CO2 makes you fat
Danish researchers have announced a rather wild hypothesis: Perhaps we are getting fatter and fatter because of the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
Prime Minister David Cameron is saying he has never been at a basketball game before.
Perhaps he will get another chance at this summer’s London Olympics. Luol Deng of the Chicago Bulls will be representing Great Britain.
Please be true!
Please be true that the two dopes lost to a Mormon in Mississippi!!
Well folks, if I were the Chief of Staff to a Republican President, I would have them in Dayton tonight, too.
It’s freaking Western Kentucky and Mississippi Valley State for crying out loud.
Early exit polls had Romney +4 last week in OH, ultimately ended up winning by 1. A three point error again could shift the race…
When Mitt Romney wins Hawai’i, will people demand to see the long-form election returns?
Turnout moderate in my opinion but I aint got nuttin’ to compare it too, fools..
Let’s not feed the troll tonight he has already begun with several preposterous statements…
Alabama
S: 34%
R: 29%
G: 28%
Did I mention it was in Ohio, Corey? LOL
Mississippi
R: 35%
G: 30%
S: 29%
Romney MS and Santo AL
Early exits look like a split MS Romney and AL Santorum.
CNN Exit Poll
Alabama
Santorum 34%
Romney 29%
Newt 28%
Mississippi
Romney 36%
Newt 30%
Santorum 26%
29%
Fox is continuing with it’s regular programs.
Exits point to Romney in Mississippi and Santorum in Alabama.
Go to the new thread.