Another Poll Shows A Romney Surge

An optimistic Capitals’ fan would tell you that their loss last night was a backdoor way of guaranteeing a third home game in the best-of-seven series…but an optimistic Capitals’ fan I am not….

Reuters and Ipsos become the latest pollster to contradict that CNN poll yesterday by showing a surge for Mitt Romney in a General Election match up with Barack Obama.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Mitt Romney (R) 43%

Apparently just a month ago according to this pollster, Obama was ahead of Romney by double digits. This poll was done April 12-15 among 891 registered voters. One set of numbers I missed from that PPP poll yesterday in Wisconsin was the look at the US Senate race.

Tammy Baldwin (D) 47%
Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 40%

Tammy Baldwin (D) 46%
Mark Neumann (R) 45%

Tommy Thompson (R) 47%
Tammy Baldwin (D) 45%

This poll was done April 13-15 among 1136 likely voters.

Finally, it should not go without saying on this bright, beautiful Tuesday morning that the Baltimore Orioles are once again atop the American League East….

Posted by Dave at 7:57 am
Filed under: General | Comments (190)

190 Responses to “Another Poll Shows A Romney Surge”

  1. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Good! We need a Romney surge to combat the liberal urge to splurge!

    Happy Tuesday all!

  2. Tim says:

    I’d say that a 4 point gap right now is about right.

  3. mnw says:

    There was no “Walker surge” yesterday. PPP switched over to LVs. That’s what really happened.

  4. mnw says:

    Bob Beckel is an incontinent alcoholic. Leave him on the air & watch the freak show, I guess.

  5. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    wonder if Ras will have any state polling?

  6. Tim says:

    Actually, Walker’s position is very tenuous. It’s gonna be close, and entirely dependent on turnout. Plus, there are several state senators being recalled. If one seat flips, the Dems then conrol that body.

    Gonna be interesting to see how the flood of money from the pro-Walker forces affects this thing. They have far more money than the other side does.

  7. SusyQue says:

    Ted Nugent Declares ‘I Will Either Be Dead or in Jail’ if Obama Is Re-elected

    Ted Nugent is hitting the pavement for GOP president hopeful Mitt Romney. The rocker called for attendees of the National Rifle Association’s convention to go out and recruit thousands of people to vote for Romney in the coming election. Nugent said, ”Our government is wiping its a– with the Constitution.” During an on-site interview, he also told the crowd, ”We’ve got four Supreme Court justices who don’t believe in the Constitution.

  8. CAC says:

    Reuters partisan IDis something to behold. 47%D 38%R. So with that big a D sample, Obama can only get…47%. Like the yougov poll a few days ago.

  9. SusyQue says:

    Zimmerman’s ‘Aggravated Stalking’ Charge

    The Florida statute under which George Zimmerman has been charged with second degree murder is 782.04 2n, unpremeditated murder as a result of aggravated stalking. Does it really apply?

  10. DW says:

    Today’s poll from Paladin/CFP just released:


    Romney 46
    Obama 43

    500 Likely Voters, 4/16/2012

    2012 Paladin/CFP, All rights reserved.

    This poll actually turned out quite similar to the Des Moines Register poll from February which had it 46/44 for Romney.

  11. SusyQue says:

    The Coming Resignation of Barack Obama (hope-hope) bold!
    By Peter Ferrara on 6.2.10 @ 6:09AM
    It’ll come as Democrats abandon him.

    Months ago, I predicted in this column that President Obama would so discredit himself in office that he wouldn’t even be on the ballot in 2012, let alone have a prayer of being reelected. Like President Johnson in 1968, who had won a much bigger victory four years previously than Obama did in 2008, President Obama will be so politically defunct by 2012 that he won’t even try to run for reelection.

    I am now ready to predict that President Obama will not even make it that far. I predict that he will resign in discredited disgrace before the fall of 2012. Like my previous prediction, that is based not just on where we are now, but where we are going under his misleadership.

  12. Tim says:

    He believes the Adminstration of this President will have him either killed or jailed? LMAO!!!!!

    I thought he said he didn’t do drugs.

  13. Tim says:

    Anyone here wish to make a small wager on that one?

  14. DW says:

    Peter Ferrara must be smoking a rare brand that is laced with something we have never seen before. Obama resign? The difference between Johnson and Obama is that although Johnson WAS unquestionably a miserable failure, he was smart enough to know when he wasn’t wanted any more. Obama, even if he dropped to 30% approval, would think its just because he wasn’t mean enough, nasty enough, and didn’t trample the constitution hard enough–and because he and Michelle didn’t take enough vacations and spend enough money.

  15. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    @11 that’d be awesome but it ain’t happening

  16. Proud Obamacon says:

    Tim – I am going to disagree on WI. The momentum is all in favor of Walker. Further the R’s in WI do much better on specials for turnout than would be expected. The judge race proved that. They were massively outspent and still won.

    I won’t profess to be an expert on the state senate races but aren’t some D’s being recalled as well? I could be wrong about that.

  17. SusyQue says:

    Newt Gingrich’s Ongoing Candidacy Draws Ire of GOP Establishment

    Patience is wearing thin for Gingrich’s Don Quixote moment inside the GOP establishment, which has been skeptical of Gingrich’s motivations from the beginning of the race, but has become infuriated with his inside-the-tent swipes at everything from Paul Ryan’s budget plan to retroactive hits on Freddie Mac and TARP, which Gingrich had once supported…

    “If he’s out there being destructive to the brand, he will never be able to recover from that,” Fratto said…’s-ongoing-candidacy-draws-ire-of-gop-establishment/

  18. Brandon says:

    No state polls coming from Rasmussen today.

    National approval is 48/50 for today.

  19. Bitterlaw says:

    So, we have those here who think Obama will never leave office (The CHief Roberts in Chains/Add wing of HHR). We have those seriously discussing whether Obama will resign rather than lose. DailyKOS does not have a monopoly on crazy talk.

  20. DW says:

    16…looks like you forgot to change your handle back to what it normally is.

  21. DW says:

    18…the only “legitimate” question along these lines is whether or not Biden will be on the ticket.

  22. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    @20 if not Biden then who? I dont think Hillary would take it

  23. DW says:

    21…Virginia’s Mark Warner.

  24. Phil says:

    Obama is kicking ass. He’s winning by even a bigger blowout than he won by in 2008.

    CNN said so.

  25. DW says:

    Warner would be enough for Obama to capture VA–unless Romney picked McDonnell. But Warner is younger than Biden, much more polished, and doesn’t gaffe.

  26. mnw says:

    National Review editorial endorsement: “Mourdock for Indiana” excerpts:

    “Lugar has become a carpetbagger in his own state… an out-of-touch, institutionalized Capitol Hiller… Mourdock has shown himself to be a Reagan conservative… a successful oil geologist with an interest in economist Milton Friedman… He successfully sued to recover $6 million in pension fund losses caused by Obama’s auto bailout.”

    Anyway, perfesser ‘apples ‘n’ oranges’ jason has explained that the IN state treasurer is an unelectable witch like COD or Ken Buck (or something), so I guess reasoned analysis will be lost on him.

  27. Bitterlaw says:

    I think Biden stays on the ticket. If it looks like Obama will lose, who wants to take the hit and lose with him. Who is a future Democrat star for 2016 who wants a boost if Obama wins? Governor Cuomo?

  28. mnw says:

    To which coven does the IN state treasurer belong, perfesser?

  29. Phil says:

    ….and CNN wouldn’t cook the numbers. The Party ID of their sample can’t be challenged. It’s rock solid.

  30. Brandon says:

    Either O’Malley or Cuomo look like they want 2016.

  31. Tim says:

    I still think the nomination in ’16 is Sec. Clinton’s, if she wants it.

  32. DW says:

    27…I don’t think there will be many dems–especially those currently with big heads because they are big shots in DC–who will honestly believe that Obama will lose. And even if they fear it, I don’t see anyone not jumping at the chance to be on the ticket. Even if its a losing ticket, history shows it doesn’t disqualify someone from then running for POTUS in the future.

    But these people have such big egos, I can seem them thinking, “Wow, Barack wants ME on the ticket! I know that I am SO good that I will pull him across the finish line!”

  33. Phil says:

    With Virginia, Obama wins even if he loses Ohio, Florida, NC, and Indiana.

    Warner is his ace in the hole.

    BTW, I detest Warner. Fake moderate if there ever was one. Nothing whatsoever moderate about his senate voting record. Look it up. It’s no different than Al Franken’s.

  34. DW says:

    33…totally agree. He is as slimy as they come, but many voters here in VA aren’t very bright.

  35. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    I studied the 100 senators a couple year back and came to despise Warner. he parades as a moderate even though he votes like a left wing lib

  36. DW says:

    But my only point in bringing up the Dem Veep is that it is a legitimate question. Maybe it will just end up being Biden again, but at least the question is legitimate. Talk about Obama resigning before the election is the fairy tale stuff of pixie dust and pumpkin carriages.

  37. bio mom says:

    There are some posts out today about the White House Strategy for painting Romney as both an extremist and ALSO an etch a sketch at the same time. But my comment here involves those supposedly on our side who are helping Obama with that caricature. This includes the Wall Street Journal editorial page writers like Kim Strassel and Bret Stephens who have written articles during the primary about Romney as a “hollow man”. Now Obama is jumping in on that as are other lefties. And then there are Romney’s primary opponents who piled on to paint that same picture during the primary and even still (Gingrich). I await the return of Santorum to the fray. He stated yestereday that in about a week or two, once he has completed his taxes, he will make a statement to his supporters regarding what they should do, or something like that. I can see him stabbing Romney in the back. I hope I am wrong. If “our side” doesn’t help out in this election we cannot win it. And that will be a disaster for this country. Thanks for allowing me to vent.

  38. GPO says:

    That article in post # 7 is from June 2010

  39. Bitterlaw says:

    My daughter wants to see The Three Stooges movie. She watched a few of clips of the real stooges. The dilemma is that I think the Stooges should not be tarnished by a re-make. As a father, I want my daughter to be happy so she does not end up hating me for not letting her see this movie, start taking meth and end up on the stripper pole.

  40. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    Romney up 1 in Ras daily tracking

  41. bio mom says:

    41: 5 day tracking. Llast 6 days: even, R up 4, R up 5, R up 4, R up 3, R up 1. Reflects Romney’s bump when Santorum dropped out. Also influened by weekend sampling that improved Obama’s numbers in his approval/disapproval values. It will be a long campaign. We need everybody on board. The stakes are very high.

  42. MD says:

    OK – Just Jul weep. Radnor came in right behind our little geniuses.

  43. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – Radnor is one spot below your district. Radnor is stable and TE is dropping like a stone from 2 to 3. Next year is our year!

  44. Tredyffrin Maxwell says:

    Just wait, Radnor, just you wait!


  45. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – TE also imported all the Asian students to skew the numbers. Toinight, Radnor is voting to impose 3.2% tax increase even though it had a surplus last year. The Democrats seized control of the Board and they are acting like Democrats. One of the Board members has a daughter on my softball team. Maybe I should ask him if he wants his daughter to bat last for the rest of the season?*

    *Just kidding. My batting order is based on many factors. The most significant is the player’s number. In the first game, #1 batted first and #13 batted last. Next game, #2 will bat first and #1 will bat last. I am so glad they have numbers.

  46. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – Lower Merion must be suicidal at being #8.

  47. jenny-former republican says:

    Cuomo needs a wife if he wants to get elected president. Also, Hillary will run again and she’ll get the nomination.

  48. DW says:

    Today is the primary for the special election to fill the AZ_08 congressional seat vacated by Giffords. From what it looks like, its expected to be Ron Barber (D) against Jesse Kelly (R).

  49. James Buchanan says:

    Cuomo needs a wife if he wants to get elected president.

    I dispute that assertion. I did not have a wife. I was able to fully devote my energies towards the nation’s business by destroying the Union.

  50. Bitterlaw says:

    One more education note. My Township has become a magnet for children with “special needs.” Under the law, the School District has to provide programs and support for these children. I support that but there are some examples that defy logic – one child is driven by a driver paid by the district every day to a specialized school in Delaware. Also, people actually move here after a need is diagnosed to get access to the programs. As a parent, I understand wanting to do everything for your child but I think the program needs to be evaluated for areas where less expensive alternatives can be utilized.

  51. DW says:

    Wow–RCP just updated their states map, and they are calling AZ a tossup. SC leans Romney. MT leans Romney. They are basically saying that 22 states are in play.

  52. david says:

    #34, Warner even has many Republicans in Virginia brainwashed. If Warner is not picked for V.P. he will run for Govenor in 203.

  53. Phil says:

    Well, if they are calling Colorado a tossup, I guess it’s fair to make Arizona a tossup as well.

  54. Scott says:

    Mark Warner is overrated.he had no affect in VA in the 2010 midterms or the last Governor’s race.

  55. NYCmike says:

    #52 – door#1, door#2, or the old Door of Compassion. That gets the suckas every time! Even the Philly A-Holes fall for it, time and time again!!

  56. pitchaboy says:

    The only way to get Obama to lead is to get a D plus 7 or over sample. This election will be a D plus3 at the most and more likely even to D plus 1. If you put those numbers in, he is at best even or more likely behind by a point or two. More importantly, he is at around 45%.

  57. Bitterlaw says:

    Dr. Pitch – can you settle a medical debate. I am a Type I diabetic (Tyoe 2 is for fat pu**ies like Tim V.) I think that if I stopped taking insuling, I will lapse into a coma and be dead within 7 to 10 days. Tim V. says 3 days at most. Please settle this dispute.

  58. NYCmike says:

    Dr Pitch – No rush, get back to Bitterlaw whenever you get a chance, he’ll be ok. (like the nuns answering the bell at the abbey in “Sound Of Music”)

  59. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – those nuns messed with Nazis. They were fierce.

  60. DW says:

    61…I always wondered how that would have played out. OK, it was a funny stunt for the movie, the nuns holding the distributor cap and wires. But in reality, those nazis would have immediately looked under the hoods of their cars when none of them started. They would have spotted right away what was missing, and they would have immediately suspected the occupants of the abbey. Those nuns would have been tossed into a train for a long ride to a gas chamber.

  61. Annie says:

    I was up late last night and caught a glimpse of CNN’s really early show, in which the news babe announced that Romney was down to Obama by double-digits in the CNN poll (52%-43%), that there is a HUGE gender gap between the two, and that 70% of Americans approve of the “Buffett Rule”! And she said it all with a smirky smile. Never fails, they will put out the propaganda they want – hopes for self-fulfilling prophesies and just blatant misinformation. It still amazes me… Along with a similar ABC/Wash Post poll (51-44), the polling average at Real Clear Politics then appears in Obama’s favor.

  62. NYCmike says:

    #62 – I am still trying to figure out how to catch a cloud and pin it down!

  63. Bitterlaw says:

    DW – not in 1938. They would have all had a big laugh about it. Didn’t you see Hogan’s Heroes?*

    *Funny Nazis? Wow. That wouldn’t get on tv today.

  64. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – it’s not as easy as holding a wave upon the sand.

  65. Joe J says:

    The Rueters poll cracks me up D +7 and D +9 with leaners and he tops out at 47%. Can someone do the math and reweight this to day D +2 and add more indys?

  66. Phil says:


    Morrissey over at Hot Air blows up the CNN poll.

    Worth the read. The poll is complete crap.

  67. Sue Nami says:

    #66 – You can say that again!

  68. Diogenes says:

    +2 isn’t realistic either as this is a presidential year. Obama had +6 in 2008. That is a reasonable baseline. If things stay bad it will be at +4, +2. Remember it can’t go down much below that because the dead can vote and Obama will have a billion banked up.

  69. Bitterlaw says:

    Morrissey? Whiny singer who’s fans were whiny college girls or gay college guys.

  70. DrJay says:

    These people managed to hold a wave upon the sand…

  71. Annie says:

    Bitterlaw – My dad – now in his 80s – has been a Type 2 diabetic for 30 years now, and he has never been a “fat pu**y.” In fact, his diabetes is caused by a generational genetic flaw. In my family, Type 2 diabetes has been traced back at least to the 1850s, and appears only in the males. My grandfather and all of his brothers developed Type 2 diabetes – and not one of them were fat. Likewise, all of his uncles had the same form of diabetes. Several male cousins, and second cousins, also have Type 2. One of my male 2nd cousins and his uncles (also all have the same diabetes) are part of a genetic testing research program in Missouri. My dad is now losing his eyesight, but thankfully, still has both legs. I have seen him begin to pass out from going too low on many occasions, and it is a very scary thing. My mom has to keep orange juice and his sugar pills handy.

  72. pitchaboy says:

    Yes Bitter you can be dead in 3 or in 7. While your sugar readings will rapidly go up what will determine time to death are 1. your hydration status, if you start off dehydrated you are done in 3, 2. your age, the older you are the sooner you fall and 3. the status of yor kidneys and heart; if they are bad you sink quick and 4. infection or not, if infected, you go faster.

    If you are young, have good heart and kidneys, are not dehydrated to start it and not infected, you could make it to 7 days.

  73. Annie says:

    68 – Phil – The frustrating thing is that I know full well the CNN poll is complete crap, but so many people do not – they trust CNN.

  74. pitchaboy says:

    While most type Ii diabetics are on the plump side, you can have type II DM and be thin. What correlates best with type II DM is your waist line. Therefore, even with a normal BMI, if you have a pot belly it could be sugar time.

  75. Jerry muthertruckin' Cruncher says:

    Bitterlaw and other lawyers. Legal question: in a novel, is it okay to use/mention real life companies/products?

  76. pitchaboy says:

    These manufactured polls are mainly to depress the Republicans. They wont because the base wants to get rid of Obama. Do not lose sleep over it.

  77. jason says:

    David Brooks says Obama is a “pragmatic liberal who believes in fiscal sustainability”.

    I almost barfed my breakfast.

  78. Joe J says:

    I forget which of the polls but one had him 37/57 approval/disapprove with indys.. he’s toast if that maintains

  79. DW says:

    I really feel sorry for folks who are dependent on medication to stay alive. In the future, they are always one government shortage or government death panel decision away from eternity. I have a loved one who has a daily medication that if it was stopped would survive a month before going comatose and maybe a few months after that before death.

  80. jason says:

    77. Bitter doesn’t do pro-bono……

  81. MD says:

    Pitch – is there any way we can kill Bitter a little quicker than above?

  82. Bitterlaw says:

    Pitch and Annie – I am sorry for over-generalizations. If Tim V. sends his medical reocrds to Pitch, maybe the good doctor can determine whether he is a fat pu**y.


    I believe that you can make reference to real products but you can’t market them. For example, you can write, “Eva drank Diet Coke.” I would not make the title of your book, “Eva the Diet Coke Drinker is Dead.”

  83. Obamacare Golden Sunset Panel says:

    82. Don’t worry. Our expedited process will ensure a decision in 60 days.

  84. MD says:

    79 – yea, expect the same load of crap from Smerconish.

  85. Scott says:

    #79- jason
    David Brooks has a man crush on Obama.He usually glows about the O Man as he does today,but sometimes pouts when he feels “betrayed” by him.
    Brooks’ articles are laughable and meaningless.

  86. MD's Dad says:

    In the future, they are always one government shortage or government death panel decision away from eternity.

    Fear me, weaklings. I will shut off the insluin supply if you “f” with me. Try shooting up without needles, a-holes. You can’t drink your insulin.

  87. Inmate # 36987 says:

    I made my decisions based on free legal advice on blogs.

    The judge was sympathetic, I only got 3 years, could have been 5.

    Send cigarettes.

  88. Scott says:

    It is amazing but almost something one can bet on—-as Obama goes up in Ras’ polling,he will slide in Gallup’s polling.

  89. Annie says:

    76 – In my family, the men folk are all skinny, no tummy fat at all. And they still develop Type 2 diabetes. We have traced the disease back to my great great great grandfather, the first actually recorded as having diabetes, and dying from it in the mid-1800s. Most likely, the disease goes back even further in the ancestry, but there is no way to verify that. However, as I mentioned, far-reaching branches of the relatives are now in genetics studies to find the genetic marker.

  90. DW says:

    89…wow, our taxes are now going to cover free internet for inmates!

  91. Jerry muthertruckin' Cruncher says:

    I’ll send him some $.

  92. pitchaboy says:

    Recommend buying Romney in Intrade; he is cheap at 38 bucks.

  93. jason says:

    ” Brooks’ articles are laughable and meaningless.”

    They should be, but remember that according to the MSM, Brooks represents the “other side”. Brooks in effect is their “fair and balanced”. He is the spokesman for conservatives (purportedly).

    So he carries a lot more weight than he should.

  94. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – I usually give Smerconish 5 minutes a day between commericals on 97.5 when driving home. He is a full blown lib now but has some interesting residual traits. He would legalize pot. He would also execute Mumia personally if he had the chance. He would have the US leave Afghanistan but would nuke the Afghan-Pakistan border.

  95. Annie says:

    MD’s Dad, insulin can also be administered in pill form…just not as effective as shots.

  96. jason says:

    94. I think I will buy Obama. I can’t afford to have my wallet AND my heart broken at the same time.

  97. MD's Dad. says:

    Annie – not for the Type I diabetics but thank you. I will put that on the list. I might as well kill the Type 2 Diabetics, too.

  98. Bitterlaw says:


  99. Cookie Monster says:

    is for cookie– that good enough for me

  100. Annie says:

    Time for work – bye all, for now –

  101. Cookie Monster says:

    Ahm chom chom chom chom chom

  102. Inmate # 36987 says:

    ” 89…wow, our taxes are now going to cover free internet for inmates!”

    Not really free. I had to take a shower with Jerry Sandusky to get online for a few minutes, he has connections.

  103. Cookie Monster says:

    Me have diabetes now

  104. Bitterlaw says:

    Cookie – does Tim V. attend the same “Fat Bastard” meetings that you do?

  105. Jerry muthertruckin' Cruncher says:

    Darn it, Bitter! That’s my exact title. Just kidding. Sounds about right. Thanks.

  106. Elmo says:

    Here, wash it down with a Pepsi!

  107. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V. is today’s Favorite Evangelical. Cream soda will be served as the pot luck supper.*

    *Do Eangelicals have those or is it just Lutherans?

  108. Vanilla Ice says:

    Just don’t steal from Queen and David Bowie. Trust me.

  109. Cookie Monster says:

    Me not fat, me just “big-boned”

  110. DW says:

    109…there is such a thing as an Evangelical Lutheran

  111. Scott says:

    In the Reuters/Ipsos Poll,Obama’s net approval/ disapproval rating among Independents fell from -12 to -20,yet his approval rating only went down by 1% and his disapproval rating only went up by 1% from the pollster’s last poll.

  112. Joe J says:

    Scott, thats what happens when you only poll 15% indys instead of 30

  113. Bitterlaw says:

    there is such a thing as an Evangelical Lutheran – DW

    I can’t keep up with Protestants. Sorry.

  114. Scott says:

    So Smerconish is now a full fledged liberal with some Libertarian tendencies.Can you give a few examples of his new liberal thinking?
    Also,what kind of ratings does he get compared to conservative talk radio hosts who compete against him in the same time slot?

  115. Apologetic California says:

    He also described his measure as a “millionaires’ tax,” even though the increased sales taxes would apply to everyone and the income tax hike would kick in at $250,000 in income.

    When braced about the latter, he said that “everybody who makes $250,000 becomes a millionaire very quickly if you save.”

    Read more here:

    LMAO. Sigh.

  116. DrJay says:

    PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls

    Obama’s approval in Florida is at 51/45. Full Presidential poll there in the next couple hours

  117. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    @118 id love to see the crosstabs on that Rescue poll

  118. Bitterlaw says:

    Scott – I don’t have the ratings. There really is not a lot of competition in talk radio in Philadelphia. 1210 am has the biggest reach (50,000 watts). There is a station (990 a.m.) that carries conservatives like Medved, Bennet and Hewitt zzzzzzzzzzzzz. It has a weak signal and I don’t know anybody who listens to it. I am sure that the 2 sports talk stations crush 990 am in the ratings.

  119. DW says:

    Paladin/CFP has released its state polling plan for the election year. Their focus will be on 20 key states. Each will be polled every month from now through election day. These include AZ, CO, FL, IA, IN, MI, ME, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, VA, WA, and WI.

    So far, MN and IA have been released for April. Here is the next one:


    Romney 45
    Obama 44

    500 Likely voters, 4/16/12.

  120. DW says:

    And special thanks to MD and Marv for their hard work on our strategic plan.

  121. DrJay says:

    Paladin Polling: “fake but accurate”

  122. Tim V says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    April 17, 2012 at 11:34 am
    Tim V. is today’s Favorite Evangelical. Cream soda will be served as the pot luck supper.*

    thanks bitter. it’s been awhile since I recieved the honor.

  123. 24601 says:

    I made my decisions based on free legal advice on blogs.

    The judge was sympathetic, I only got 3 years, could have been 5.

    Send cigarettes.

    Comment by Inmate # 36987 — April 17, 2012 @ 11:19 am

    Three years in the clink? That’s nothing; I got 19 years for a loaf of freaking bread!

  124. DW says:

    123…fake? tell that to Strategic Vision and Research2000.

    Regarding the PPP(D) FL poll that is forthcoming. With that sort of job approval, expect it to be a ten point Obama lead.

    Fortunately Paladin/CFP has our alpha team in the field in FL and we will rush the results here as soon as possible.

  125. Tim V says:

    Covenant Church (mostly swedes) have great pot luck suppers.

  126. Phil says:

    Another rescue poll from PPP.

    Another one of Jensen’s seven months out wonders.

    like clockwork…..

  127. Tim V says:

    Bitter, I am overweight or fat if you prefer.

  128. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V. – you will work off the weight when you are living in the condo in Hell with me, MD, GF, Brandon and Jason.

  129. Tim V says:

    131- just think, you could be there in 3-7 days.

  130. Bitterlaw says:

    Did the voices in your head tell you that, Tim V. or Dr. Pitch? Can you tell the difference?

  131. Cookie Monster says:

    Me nominate good buddy Oscar to be a Philly a-hole.

  132. Cookie Monster says:

    Oscar really is from Philly and a big Eagles fan…. that why he talks trash and dyed himself green.

    Andy Reid why he so grouchy.

  133. GF says:

    Isn’t “Sesame Street” based on a mixed neighbourhood between Harlem and the Bronx? I don’t think the Philly crowd would take to well with New Yorkers getting in their mix.

    Good morning, all.

  134. Cookie Monster says:

    That why he hates everybody of course!

  135. Scott says:

    PPP Poll says that Obama is up 50% to 45% in Florida due to 15 point lead among Hispanics and 30 point lead among the youth.
    PPP should just say that Obama will carry all 50 States.

  136. 2008 Polaris says:

    There is no way that minorities and young people will vote for Obama.

  137. DW says:

    139…only 5% undecided at this point in the race? I just texted our team lead for the FL poll Paladin/CFP is conducting and he replied saying that we are getting almost twice that in undecideds. So something is definitely fishy about his PPP(D) poll. Of course we are just polling likely voters.

  138. Phil says:

    So, after carrying Florida by less than 3 points in 2008, zero expanded that to 5 in 2012.

    Must be all that success he’s had during his first term.

    Go, Jensen!

  139. Phil says:

    No, Scott. He carries all 57 states.

  140. marc says:

    Remember PPP will not show a GOP lead in any of the swing states this far out unless it has to. Right now they are all about pushing a narrative of inevitability on Obama’s reelection.

  141. Phil says:

    marc just nailed it

  142. Scott says:

    Phil- Good point about the 2008 numbers in FL.So to believe PPP/ Jensen,Romney is behind by about the same percentages in Florida and WISCONSIN!!! Yeh,right.
    Also,expect Jensen to show the Dem in FL up by 15% in the Senate race.

  143. DW says:

    I just got a text from our FL poll team lead…he says that his team has finished, and his quick calculation shows Romney 46 Obama 44. I will confirm later if this is the official results.

  144. DW says:

    OK, actually, with rounding complete, here is the FL Paladin/CFP poll:

    Romney 47%
    Obama 44%

    500 Likely voters, 4/16-4/17

  145. DW says:

    Gallup Tracking

    Romney 48 (+1)
    Obama 43 (-2)

  146. marc says:

    The thing about the manufactured polls from PPP/CNN etec is that while they hope it depresses eyoring Republicans, they are mainly for media purposes.

    Also the thing about these polls and the Democrats know this is that if it seems like the general wisdom is that Obama has it in the bag a huge number of the Democrat base will not bother voting.

    So trust me the polls will tighten and many will begin to show a Romney lead has the election draws closer.

  147. DW says:

    So gallup says Romney is ahead 5 points nationally, but PPP(D) says Romney is BEHIND 5 points in Florida???

  148. MD says:

    Scott and Bitter

    They don’t give ratings on shows. You can find the Nuke codes easier.

  149. marc says:

    Also PPP is now 100% connected with DailKos and it’s propaganda. Markos Maoulious has basically said the election is over and Obama and the Democrats will win a huge victory. PPP has to carry on with that narrative to continue to get paid.

  150. DW says:

    I humbly submit that the polling firm Paladin/CFP has produced a FL poll much more consistent with Gallup and Rasmussen’s tracking polls, as compared to this faked PPP(D) poll.

  151. bio mom says:

    I like that gallup number!!

  152. MD says:

    DW – wait until we re-introduce the new and improved Certain To Vote (CTV) scale.

  153. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    so when you average things out Obamas approval is in the high 40s and is losing to Romney nationally albeit in a close one

  154. DW says:

    156…looking forward to it. Do you and Marv have a timetable on when it will be rolled out? Are you in beta testing yet?

  155. marc says:

    Obama’s approval is at about 46%.

  156. MD says:

    I haven’t looked at Tommy J’s analysis but let me guess. Scott’s unfavorables are killing Romney in FL.

  157. DW says:

    160…that, and in NC, once Marshall starts advertising, Burr will be in trouble too.

  158. marc says:

    What has kept his numbers high was the negative Republican primary which has undoubtedly done damage to the GOP brand with many voters especially women. The Gender GAP is really. The culture warriors /Rush really f-up trying to make political hay out of the contraception issue. Instead of backfiring on Obama it backfired on Republicans.

  159. marc says:

    No Jensen claims that Obama’s 15 point lead with Hispanics( which is impossible since cubans make up 40% of the Hispanic population in Florida) and his 30% lead with “youth”( you can imagine how Jensen classify s “youth” is what is giving Obama his lead in Florida).

  160. DW says:

    more from the FL poll team leader…the data gathered shows that senior citizens much more strongly prefer Romney over Obama. In fact, of those who identified that they voted in 2008, Romney is doing about 10 points better among this key group than McCain did against Obama.

  161. MD says:

    DW – it is in the 2nd round of beta testing. Frankly, I wasn’t thrilled with the first results and thought we missed the mark with the algo just a bit. Of course, I am notoriously difficult to please or so some say. Anyway, the round is looking much better. I can safely say we will have the rollout within 2 weeks per board approval.

  162. Brandon says:

    #163. Impossible eh? Obama won Hispanics in FL 57-42 over McCain. Not saying it’s right, but certainly not “impossible”.

  163. bio mom says:

    46/48 Obama approval today in gallup. Up 1. That is comforting suggesting the Romney against Obama number is a real upswing, not just due to a more negative Obama sample.

  164. marc says:

    Well a lot of Cubans voted for Obama in 2008. That won’t be the case in 2012.

  165. GF says:

    164- That improvement is key; younger voters may not even show up if things continue to get worse. Seniors will vote no mater what.

  166. MD says:


    Can u possibly kiss Tommy J’s as+ a little more?

  167. MD says:

    Still – I agree. It is not impossible. However, tommy j has proven, over and over again that he can’t be trusted this far out.

  168. Tom Jensen says:

    170- Hey, Philly A-Hole! Leave your new inductee alone; I e-mailed him, you know!

  169. marc says:

    In Florida unlike in other states they are two types of Hispanics groups. You have economic immigrants and we can include the puerto ricans into this group and the professional class immigrant we can include cubans in this group.

    One group leans Democrat b/c of economic concerns they are usually lower class and less educated these include columbians, domincans, puerto ricans etec. The other leans Republican they are educated either in their nation of birth and have professional degrees or ares entrepreneur these tend to be Cubans, Brazilians, Argentinians, Venezuela for the most part they come to the U.S seeking freedom and liberty etec.

    Sometimes these two merge but it still usually applies.

  170. Phil says:

    On second thought, Obama up 5 in Florida is probably right. After all, Obama is up 9 nationally. I know, because CNN says so…

  171. CAC says:

    PPP FL: male 45% female 55% a swing of 4 from 47-53 actual in 2008.
    No push here at all.

    Just start heading to florida guys. Obviously there are women just falling out of the sky.

  172. Brandon says:

    I even said it’s probably not right! I was just pointing out the fact that FL Hispanics have voted for Obama before, it’s not impossible for them to do it again.

  173. marc says:

    164- That improvement is key; younger voters may not even show up if things continue to get worse. Seniors will vote no mater what.

    Comment by GF — April 17, 2012 @ 1:19 pm

    Why do you think they are so desperately tryna sell this “recovery”, who do you think would believe that more a college student who hardly works or an adult with bills and a mortgage to pay?

  174. GF says:

    175- Just like the WI poll yesterday that had to have a 10-12 point gender participation gap to get the numbers they posted (I could nto find the actual crosstabs on male vs. female total samples).

    177- My point exactly.

  175. lisab says:

    “You’re dad is at least 80 and he’s still working? For NASA?”

    yup … nasa, jpl, dod

    he is a theoretical physicist

    it is not like he works in construction

    he mostly studies solar radiation

  176. GF says:

    Just heard on the radio that Sancto is putting out to voters that he has NOT endorsed any candidate, so how they vote is up to them. Way to help unite the party.

    He can kiss a Vatican appointment good bye, IMO.

  177. Phil says:

    Hmmm Jensen says it’s 55-45 female – male.

    Kind of reminds me of those first exit polls in 2004 showing Kerry carrying Florida and Ohio – with a 54-46 male-female ratio.

    Tommy Tommy – you can be less obvious than that. Quit showing your work…..CNN doesn’t.

  178. Phil says:

    female – male ratio I meant to say

  179. marc says:

    Jensen is playing up the gender gap in accordance with DailyKos also.

  180. Thomas Jensen says:


    Get your Kiwi set pronto. I have some smudges on my wing tips.

  181. jan says:

    Why would the put out misleading polls just to depress Republicans? Would that not also cause Democrats who tend to be younger and minority not to vote?

  182. GF says:

    WSJ rpeorts on OH Senate; I had no idea that Mandel hailed from Cleveland and was reasonably popular there. Did he beat an incumbent in his statewide race?


    Ohio Senate Race Tightens
    By David Feith

    Want to know where Election 2012 will be decided over the next six months? Follow the travel schedule of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose presence on the stump will be coveted by Republicans nationwide. Monday found him in Ohio on behalf of Josh Mandel, the 34-year-old Republican state treasurer hoping to knock Democrat Sherrod Brown from the U.S. Senate.

    It’s been a long 18 months since Ohio Republicans so dominated the 2010 polls that they reportedly forced Obama re-election strategists to consider writing off the state. Today it’s clear that Ohio will be in the thick of Election 2012, with a heavy influence on both the presidency and control of the Senate.

    A senior state Republican has predicted to Political Diary that the Mandel-Brown race for the Senate will go the way of the presidential contest, with Mr. Mandel’s fate tied to Mitt Romney’s. Most recent polls suggest the same and show Republicans currently trailing. On March 28, Quinnipiac found President Obama leading Mr. Romney by six points, while Rasmussen had him leading by eight. In the Senate race, meanwhile, the Real Clear Politics average of polls has Mr. Brown leading Mr. Mandel by eight.

    But the Mandel camp is touting an end-of-March Rasmussen poll of likely voters that had the race tied. Mr. Brown should be concerned, Mr. Mandel argues, because his approval ratings have been below 50%, problematic territory for incumbents. Mr. Mandel also argues that Mr. Brown is considerably to the left of the Ohio electorate, having won election in 2006 thanks to national dynamics and a particularly weak year for state Republicans. Mr. Brown has been named the Senate’s “most liberal” member by National Journal magazine two years in a row, and Mr. Mandel notes that he has voted with Mr. Obama 98% of the time.

    A Marine Corps reservist and two-time Iraq War veteran, Mr. Mandel stresses his strength in populous and liberal Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland and the suburb of Lyndhurst, which Mr. Mandel represented for four years in the state house. He was the only Republican to win more than 40% of Cuyahoga votes in 2010.

    Expect this race to be expensive. Both campaigns are flush—Mr. Brown raised $2.4 million in the first quarter and has $6.3 million in the bank; Mandel raised $2 million and has $5.3 million in the bank—and both are expected to attract major outside support, with Mr. Brown drawing on labor unions and Mandel on groups such as Crossroads GPS.

  183. mnw says:

    Interesting post, GF


  184. MD says:


    Jan – we should ask that question to Senator Elaine Marshall.

  185. lisab says:

    “Why would the put out misleading polls just to depress Republicans?”

    the problem is that if obama goes behind in the polls

    it will likely become irreversible.

    it is not like he can expect good news over the next few months. it is important for the dems to keep him about 5 points up so he can shrug off each bad news story as it comes up.