Obama Leads in NH, Romney Leads in AZ

Last week, we saw a poll from Dartmouth claiming Mitt Romney was ahead in the state of New Hampshire, but this morning, we have a contradictory poll form the University of New Hampshire showing Barack Obama with a healthy lead over Mitt Romney.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%

This poll was done April 9-20 among 486 likely voters. We also have a new poll from Arizona State University claiming Mitt Romney is only leading Barack Obama by two percentage points in the state of Arizona.

Mitt Romney (R) 42%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

This poll was done April 9-13 among 488 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 6:57 am
Filed under: General | Comments (201)

201 Responses to “Obama Leads in NH, Romney Leads in AZ”

  1. Enjolras says:

    Happy PA Primary day!

  2. EML says:

    And NY

  3. SusyQue says:

    WOLF: Romney Revolution (YES!)

    America is a center-right nation with perennial polls showing that conservatives outnumber liberals 2-1. Democrats and their allies in the media know there simply aren’t enough liberals to defeat Republicans, so they will do everything they can to split the Tea Partyfrom Mitt Romney. They will fail.

  4. SusyQue says:

    Cash-poor Gingrich campaign leaves some contractors unpaid as it disputes debts. (Newt has no shame!)

    Mired in $4.3 million of debt, the Gingrich campaign is disputing whether it has to pay for Newt’s Network and officially signaled Friday in its FEC filing that the campaign may never do so – one of three contractual disputes that provide further insight into the extent of the campaign’s money troubles.

  5. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Christie telling the Nets to essentially go to hell re: their pending exit to Brooklyn confirms once again he is the only sensible VP option for Romney.

    Christie has guts. Rubio does not.

    Happy primary day all!

  6. MD says:

    F off troll

  7. SusyQue says:

    Is the Obama re-election campaign getting desperate?

    Without any actual accomplishments to tout for President Barack Obama and with attacks on his rival, Mitt Romney, backfiring, the dwindling group of supporters of the president is starting to come up with bizarre reasons to re-election him.

  8. SusyQue says:

    #6…I disagree…Christie not the guy we need
    on the ticket. Rubio, very articulate and patriotic. Florida more imp than New Jersey!

  9. Rockefeller Republican says:

    #7, you dignify me with your anger.

    Thank you!

  10. SusyQue says:

    Bitter…is Mitt going to win today?

  11. Rockefeller Republican says:

    #9, completely disagree.

    Christie tells it the way it is – and people are hungry for straight talk.

    Both are articulate. But Gov. Christie has guts. Rubio does not.

    Don’t worry – Romney/Christie will carry FL.

  12. EML says:

    You know who else is considered to “tell it the way it is”? Keith Olbermann, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Rachel Maddow. Maybe one of them should be the VP nominee.

  13. DW says:

    Forget about Christie, it ain’t going to happen. My DC insider tells me that in fact the NUMBER ONE (numero uno) factor that Romney will consider is the first rule for a veep pick. First do no harm. Romney will not take chances. What he does NOT need is to take the focus of this race off of Obama’s failures and make it all about a 54 inch waistline…or whatever it is.

  14. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    DW, how does your DC insider feel about Romney’s chances. I remember you mentoning that he confirmed Santorum had hurt us with women.

  15. Phil says:

    Portman seems like the ultimate “do no harm” selection.

    It’s early, but NH is starting to worry me. The poll indicates Romney has more room to grow among Republicans and is within striking distance among NH indies. It’s winnable.

    Normally, I wouldn’t worry that much about 4 electoral votes until you think back and realize that Al Gore would have been president had Bush not carried NH. Forget Florida.

    We need every electoral vote. Flipping Ohio, Florida, Indiana, NC, and Virginia only gets us to 266.

    Kelly Ayotte still makes a lot of sense to me.

  16. The Joker says:

    Romney is a Loser!!!40 state Romney Loss looking like!!!

  17. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    Phil this poll was nicely took down on the basis of its crosstabs in the previous thread. It over represents Ds and under represents Rs and Is

  18. DW says:

    Dem hack Charlie Toupee Cook must not have listened to the recent NC trolls posting here…he has moved NC from Tossup to Lean R:

  19. EML says:

    15 – so Critz has no shot at beating Altmire?

  20. The Joker says:

    You can put Ronald Reagan on the ticket and this sad sack will lose!!!

  21. DW says:

    I think dartmouth poll nailed where NH is right now. A two point advantage for mitt. Its right where Paladin/CFP polled it as well.

    16…he said about a 40% shot for Romney right now. Incumbancy is very powerful, and we do NOT have a gracious president who will mitigate it’s power in the spirit of fair play and presidental tradition. Obama’s team has no interest in any of those things. It will be smash-mouth Chicago thugs on the loose like you have never seen before. Last time, they just looked through Republican dumpsters. This time they will throw Republican bodies into the dumpsters after destroying them (reputations, not literally).

    But my DC insider is very real. Not a figment of imagination like Jim Geraghty has with his supposed obi-won.

  22. NYCmike says:

    While I don’t think Christie would be the right choice because of the “do no harm” rule, to put him down in the same category as Keith Olbermann, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Rachel Maddow is just ridiculous!

  23. Scott says:

    The U of New Hampshire Poll had the Party ID at 44%(D),38%(R) and 19%(I).Our NH experts tell us that this is pure fabrication.
    Obama is showing poorly in AZ if he has only 40%.

  24. EML says:

    24 – what im saying is…”telling it like it is” is not the #1 trait to look for in a VP.

  25. Bitterlaw says:

    I just voted the anti-Jul ticket and I feel fine.

  26. SusyQue says:

    ALLBAUGH: It’s Romney versus Carter

    Mitt Romney will win in November, and the reason is simple: because of President Obama’s record. Before my friends in the conservative movement spend the summer gnashing their teeth over the supposed ideological impurities of a Republican who governed one of the nation’s most liberal states, let’s all remember who we are running against: the greatest presidential failure since Jimmy Carter.

  27. EML says:

    Gallup Party ID poll has NH going from D+13 to R+4 in 2011. A 17 point swing towards the GOP.

  28. DW says:

    Also, when you look at Cook’s POTUS grid, even though historically he tends to put his thumb on the Dem side of the scale, look at what he has for states…

    He has all the McCain states in Romney’s column of course, with AZ, GA, MO, and flipped IN all in Likely R. Then he has NH and NC in Lean R.
    Then he has only 7 states in “Toss Up”:

    CO – we don’t need it
    FL – we must have it
    IA – we don’t need it
    NV – we don’t need it
    OH – we must have it
    PA – we don’t need it
    VA – we must have it.

    so we need three out of the seven tossups to win. It all comes down to winning FLOHVA

  29. Phil says:

    Ok, I didn’t do my usual homework on the NH poll internals. UHH is usually one of the better university polls, but those internals are indeed screwy.

    It’s early, and it’s just one poll. The top line numbers didn’t seem all that realistic.

  30. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    no insider schedule on Rasmussen polls today? will it be another boring day like yesterday?

  31. Brandon says:

    It hasn’t been posted yet. Probably within 15 minutes.

  32. EML says:

    Mike – you going to TAP this weekend?

  33. NYCmike says:

    My only point was that Christie may “tell it like it is” like those other hacks mentioned, he also has backed up his talk with very good results. He deserves better than to be lumped it with those reprobates.

  34. DW says:

    New Hampshire isn’t at all hard to figure out. Just look at RCP. I will make it easy on you and give the link:

    Just ignore UNH and you can see why Cook has this one in his Lean R column.

  35. Brandon says:

    #37. All of those polls are from last year though. There needs to be some new data.

  36. NYCmike says:

    #34 – Coincided with a Cub Scout camping trip, so my son gets preference, as his mother won’t let me get him a fake ID until he is 13. I was trying to push it so he could vote this year, but she would have none of it. I have to get that pair of pants back from her! This cold front has got my legs a bit chilled!

  37. Scott says:

    You may want to re-consider your admiration for the U of New Hampshire polls.Yesterday’s poll actually showed Romney gaining a point on Obama from its last poll,which showed the O Man up by 10%.
    Also,I suggest you be leery of polls in which the pollster editorializes about its results.In this case,the sponsor of the poll said that the results showed that Romney “had been greatly damaged in HH during the primary process”.

  38. Rockefeller Republican says:

    #14, LOL! What DC insider thinks outside the box??? Romney needs to be bold. Certainly milktoasters like Daniels and Portman bring nothing to the ticket.

    Romney will carry IN and Portman offers no guarantee of OH. Both are guilty of the unpardonable sin of being boring! Daniels appearance on Fox News Sunday this past week was nothing to write home about…

    Romney is in no position to play it safe – he is the challenger going against a bunch of Chicago thugs with a take-no-prisoners approach.

    Is your DC insider suggesting that Christie would harm the ticket?? If so, he/she is woefully out of touch with mainstream America…. which makes sense since that trait defines a DC insider.

    Romney/Christie ’12!

  39. Brandon says:

    Rasmussen today:

    46/53 approval

    10:30- Government Investments Part II
    12:00- Virginia Senate Results
    1:00- Sentiments on Student Loans
    3:00- Favorable Ratings of NYC Quarterbacks

  40. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    damn that Rasmussen, he has VA senate polling today but he’s gonna make us wait for the Presidential polling there

  41. DW says:

    38…not all of them. Dartmouth had Romney up by two just a couple weeks ago. This week Paladin/CFP had Romney up by two. The ones that were done late last year show that Romney has a strong ability to win the state. FOUR different pollsters had him beating Obama by 8, 11, 9, and 10 points.

  42. SoHope says:

    vp ayotte makes no sense.

    She is a great Senator, but a double new england ticket isn’t a good call right now. Don’t tell me a geographically balanced ticket doesn’t matter.

    Rubio is the best choice. His dream-lite (w/o the dem goodies) would get him better than Bush numbers with hispanics. He would be good for younger voters, nail down Florida, and tea partiers would have something to get excited about.

  43. DW says:

    Last month, Rasmussen had VA 51/42 for Obama. I would expect some tightening this time.

  44. SoHope says:

    After Rubio, I would say Daniels, Portman, or McDonnell.

  45. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Christie is the best choice.

    He has guts. Rubio does not.

    Let the junior senator from FL ripen on the vine a few year more years…He should have some intestinal fortitude by then.

  46. SoHope says:

    I love Christie, but I am thinking he wouldn’t be a good combo with Romney in this election.

    He would be a bad*ss AG or chief of staff…the twisted side of me would also love to see him as press secretary

    Rock Rep is still a troll.

  47. Rockefeller Republican says:

    McDonnell would have been my #1, but killed his chances with the mandatory ultrasound issue…

    It’s Christie.

  48. SoHope says:

    mmmkay, troll

  49. Rockefeller Republican says:

    #49, LOL… And you’re still a horse’s ass.

    Christie has guts. Rubio has to find them.

  50. Phil says:

    A geographicly balanced ticket doesn’t matter. It mattered in the 1800s when there was no media or media coverage and geography was about all nationwide voters new about the candidates.

    That said, I’m fine with Rubio. I’m just not sure you’re going to get him. You may be looking at Bob Portman. I want Ohio as bad as anyone – just not sure blah Portman does us any good there.

    Just my two cents…..

  51. SoHope says:

    I guess I just disagree on an ALL NEW ENGLAND ticket being a positive.

    If Rubio isn’t VP it will be b/c he didnt want to risk being a losing VP candidate before 2016.

  52. SoHope says:

    …and Rock Rep IS a troll

  53. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Blah is an apt description for both Portman and Daniels.

    Mitt’s gotta git with Christie.

  54. Brandon says:

    New Jersey isn’t New England.

  55. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Still LOL @ #55…And you STILL are a complete ass.

  56. SoHope says:

    The Race-Baiter-in-Chief/Community Organizer of the US should be proud….

  57. SoHope says:

    #57…talking about VP Ayotte from NH

  58. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    I just got out of our morning strategy meeting. Now that I am a manager, I get in on all the strategic plans. Sounds like we are going to add some more new trolls. I already told you about the ones that we have planned to discourage regarding battleground states. But we have also realized the importance of “broken record” trolls. They consume a tremendous amount of space saying the same thing over and over and over. I told them how effective it was at HHR as it chased away several regulars. More of them will be coming your way.

  59. SusyQue says:

    Mitt Romney is my man for President. I have a fondness, trust and respect for Romney because he is such a decent man who loves this country, and will work hard to turn it around so we
    can have our country back. He is much tougher that most imagine. He has a reputation in the business community of completing all jobs in a timely manner and with excellence. He is the ace in the deck of cards…compared to useless and destructive obama, who is the joker. Yes…Mitt Romney’s my man and he deserves my vote and your vote!

  60. MFG says:

    TDT you crack me up, always have!


  61. MFG says:

    62 SusyQue

    You go girl!

  62. Barrett says:

    #6 has to be the worst attempt to use logic that I’ve ever seen.

    Back under the bridge, troll

  63. SoHope says:

    I don’t know, Barrett…Bunu’s had some woppers.

  64. Bitterlaw says:

    MFG – I am prepared to offer a truce regarding the Civil War. I need to focus more on others. I feel like I have been neglecting Tim V., Rock, and some others.

  65. SoHope says:

    Rock Rep, if I admit to being an *ss will you admit to being a troll?

  66. bio mom says:

    I voted in Wilmington, DE at about 7:30 this morning for Mitt. Only two people there, myself and a Dem. On our local radio station the reporter was at a voting site near the U of Delaware and reported it very light also. Of 6 people he interviewed, 3 voted Romney, one voted Gingrich, one voted Paul, and 1 voted Santorum, who is still on the ballot. Santorum will also be on the Pennsylvania ballot which will probably eat into Romney’s numbers.

  67. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:


    Obama @ 46% Approval

    Romney 48%, Obama 44%

  68. Alexxxx Treebekkk says:

    540.I like the Horny Old Bastards but i would go with Organization so we can use HOBO’s.

    Sounds more dignified than Philly A-Holes.
    Comment by sickofdems
    I had thought of “A–Holes Without Borders”, but it has no catchy acronym with the letters.

    HOBO is now in the lead for the name, IMO. Except you KNOW Bitter will call us HOMOs instead of HOBOs

  69. Walt says:

    Hmm….who is Alexxx Trebekkk?

  70. Barrett says:

    Here’s my truce on the civil war –

    You tell me something you like about the North, and I’ll tell you something I like about the south.

    I’ll start by saying I enjoyed hiking in the mountains of Tennessee during one of my church trips there several years ago. You guys have some nice scenery

  71. Barrett says:

    I also like Hardee’s, anything deep fried, and NASCAR

  72. Philly A-holes says:

    HOBOs – GFY.

  73. SoHope says:

    Yeah, I wonder
    who he is
    because I am
    a big fan of

  74. Bitterlaw says:

    Something good about the South? Lisab hates it. It must have some redeeming qualities.

  75. Barrett says:

    #78 – That’s a good one….Now I’m waiting to hear what they’ve got on the North

  76. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    the North has great Pizza, the South has great fried food.

  77. Walt says:

    ************************** 🙂

  78. DW says:

    The north has a great market for snow shovels!

  79. Barrett says:

    Fair enough, DW

  80. SoHope says:

    Parts of the North would be a safe haven during the winter months during a zombie apocalypse.

  81. david says:

    Now we know why the Ds are going to make the AZ Immigration Law an issue. Perfect timing for them.

  82. NYCmike says:

    something good about the South(east) – you can get to NYC in about 3 hours!

  83. Barrett says:

    By declaring the north a safe haven during a zombie apocolypse, I hereby consider the truce fully solidified.

    One nation, under god, indivisible, with liberty, and justice for Bitterlaw

  84. DW says:

    Another good point about the north: Just east of Williamsport, PA, there is a McDonalds with a NASCAR theme. They even have two cars right in the store.

  85. SoHope says:

    War on Women meme…blew up in their face
    War on Dogs meme…blew up in their face
    War on Latinos meme…developing

  86. Barrett says:

    The South has several good spots to visit/vacation(in my opinion) including the outer banks, biloxi, new orleans, huntsville, and all of florida

  87. david says:

    #49, & #50. I agree, Chrisite and McDonnell are out. So that leaves Rubio and Portman. If Portman can win us OH, then it has to be him.

    The ultrasound bill will hurt McDonnell. My wife is 100% pro-life, but she even disagrees with the ultrasound bill.

  88. david says:

    ..Too bad Senator Ayotte is from NH and not Ohio. She would be perfect.

  89. SusyQue says:

    Where’s the Media?… Mobile Man Clings to Life

    After Brutal Beating By Black Mob – Saying “This Is Justice For Trayvon” (Video) Posted by Jim Hoft

    Police tell News 5 the suspects used chairs, pipes and paint cans to beat Owens.
    Owens’ sister, Ashley Parker, saw the attack. “It was the scariest thing I have ever witnessed.” Parker says 20 people, all African American, attacked her brother on the front porch of his home, using “brass buckles, paint cans and anything they could get their hands on.”
    Police will only say “multiple people” are involved.

  90. Walt says:

    What a GLORIOUS day!!!

    The Obammer / unicorn administration had declared the “war on terror is over.”

    I now feel completly safe and will unload my weapons and beat them into plow shears.

  91. lisab says:

    i am prepared to offer a truce regarding the Civil War.

    you agkistrodon contortrix!

    the union must and shall be preserved!!!

  92. Barrett says:

    #93 – That’s unacceptable. And sick that CNN and MSNBC would not mention it.

    After reading this, I need no further justification for why “Stand Your Ground” is an important measure. Not because we are violent, but because we are scared

  93. lisab says:

    “Parker says 20 people, all African American, attacked her brother on the front porch of his home, using “brass buckles, paint cans and anything they could get their hands on.””

    duh …

    because zimmerman had a gun

  94. lisab says:

    “Something good about the South?”

    tahiti is nice

  95. michael corleone says:

    Have any of you ever seen Rubio speak in person? He is absolutely fantastic – articulate, energetic, and inspiring. ROmney will not be hurt by putting him on the ticket.

    Let’s not lose sight of the trees here. If we break up Obama’s hispanic coalition (just a little) and win FLorida, the GOP claims the White HOuse. There is no better pick.

  96. GF says:

    Good morning, HHR.

  97. lisab says:

    obama speaking … again

  98. lisab says:

    what is wrong with teaching to the test?

    the test has math and reading on it …

    testing is good

  99. MD says:

    MC – I am not worried about FL. OH is our problem. Otherwise, I agree with you.

  100. DW says:

    93…an Obama-started Race war only helps Romney in the election. Sure it would get a bigger AA turnout in places like LA, Chicago, NY, etc., but these are cities in blue states anyway, and the AA vote was going to be pretty well maxed out as it is. But Obama cannot afford to bleed white votes. He could easily allow states like WI, IA, CO, NV and perhaps MI slip away.

  101. DW says:

    I wonder if the man beaten by 20 blacks looks like the white half-brother Obama never had?

  102. lisab says:

    he also cannot afford to bleed hispanic votes

    zimmerman is a hispanic democrat

    well … was a democrat.

    you know what the say, a republican is just a democrat who has been jumped from behind by a 6’2″ thug, had his head bashed into the ground, shot the mugger in self dense and then been arrested for defending himself …

    i think that is the saying 🙂

  103. lisab says:


    when a sailor is on duty during the night

    when do they sleep? right after their shift? how does that work?

  104. lisab says:

    “Forbes writer recalculates Smaug’s net worth after enduring onslaught of enraged nerds”

    taking into account a variety of factors including the estimated length of a dragon (64 feet), how many scales he has on his belly (822), the percentage of air in the treasure mound (30%) and the price of gold, silver and diamonds i estimated the ancient wyrm to be worth $8.6 billion.


    Last year, I based Smaug’s length (64 feet) on an Advanced Dungeons & Dragons website, then loped off 70% as being tail (the proportion of tail to body for a Komodo Dragon). Apparently this was an error. Geniesolmyr writes:

    I’m afraid you were wrong, according to the D&D sourcebook (3rd Edition, ISBN 0-7869-2884-0), p36, p48 and p51, a dragon’s body length means “The dragon’s overall length, less its neck and tail. Measured from the front of the shoulders to the base of the tail.” And Smaug’s body length is approximately between 33ft. to 35ft., or 34 feet in average. He’s body width is approximately 15ft.

    Turbogigity insisted that Smaug is even larger:

    At the risk of showing just how nerdy I really am, I am compelled to point out that an ancient red dragon has a much larger body length than 19.2 feet. Indeed, the source that is quoted in this very article indicates that it is 64 feet from the snout to the base of the tail. Ergo, the body length alone is 64 feet, meaning that the size of the mound of treasure, and thus the total net worth, has been greatly underestimated.

  105. bio mom says:

    When the recent polls have been broken down around race, Romney has big leads with whites, Obama with blacks and Hispanics. This is sad but a direct result of the Democrat’s policies and Obama’s campaign to divide. How can anyone win an election losing a majority of the whites? Seems goofy to me.

  106. MD says:

    110- bio

    That is because whites represent 71% of the population. When Reagan was elected in 80, I think it was something around 84%.

    Did Add come back at all with his insanity?

  107. DW says:

    111…which is exactly why Obama cannot afford to bleed whites. He already has all blacks.

  108. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    >>How can anyone win an election losing a majority of the whites? Seems goofy to me.<<

    Dems can win elections that way. It happens all the time. Had only whites voted, Clinton never would have been President. The number im worried about is women. The elections of 1916, 1960, 1976, and 1996 saw Dems win thanks in part to winning women while they lost the mens vote. We dont need to win the women vote necessarily but we do need to make it close w/ them.

  109. Apologetic California says:

    I’ve compared libtards to viruses before. They infect and destroy a healthy cell (California) before destroying other ones (Colorado, Nevada). This takes the cake.

  110. MD says:

    Wonder what our NC troll thinks of 114? Perhaps the troll can check in.

  111. Brandon says:

    VA Senate(Rasmussen)

    Allen: 46%
    Kaine: 45%

  112. GF says:

    Lisa, yo sleep whenever you can; before or after the shift. Depending on what you are tasked with, if there are enough people, sometimes you can nap during the shift e.g. 24 hr. shifts held by Marine guards at brigs are authorized 4 hr. rest periods when others on the team cover all duties, usually at night when prisoners are asleep anyway from 2200-0500.

    Off to work; back later. Have to convince my detailer that keeping me in a law office is better for all parties vice stiffing me with some lousy instructor duty where I teach fleet Sailors how to solder miniature circuit cards and what not. One thing is certain, I am NOT going to Alaska. Could be rough going otherwise…

  113. lisab says:

    Matt Damon would ‘Kiss George W Bush on the mouth for three seconds for his AIDS relief work’…but with no tongues!

    Matt Damon wants to kiss George W Bush on the mouth – for three seconds, but no tongue.

    That is the surprising reward the former president would receive from the Hollywood star for his work to help AIDS relief in Africa.

    Naturally more left-leaning than the 43rd President of the United States, nonetheless, Damon, 41, sees Bush’s AIDS relief model as a clear guide for how the Obama administration should work in developing nations.

  114. MD says:

    Breaking! New CFP/Paladin POTUS poll for PA to be released before noon today!

  115. DW says:

    Looks like if the Washington Nationals keep up their pace, they will be the team to root against in the baseball playoffs this fall. You can just see Obama at the game rooting for the home team.

    In 2008 we saw the greatest ever candidate-turned-sports-fan flop ever. The 2008 Kentucky Derby featured a filly in the field that Hillary saw a chance to capitalize on. If a filly could take on the boys, so could she!!! So she openly rooted for this horse…but…

    The filly broke down not long into the race and was euthantized right on the track.

  116. SusyQue says:

    “Are the Debates About Manufacturing Jobs, Energy Independence and Illegal Immigration About to Become Irrelevant?” By Clark S.Judge

    As we debate the nation’s fate in the campaign ahead, we keep an eye on the enduring foundations of our fortunes: The state of our constitutional system, the openness of our economy, the robustness of our social institutions, our place as the essential architect of security and growth on the global scene.

  117. Rockefeller Republican says:

    #66, what is it that you find objectionable about Christie? Time and again during his governorship he has shown the guts to make tough decisions.

    Rubio – when he had the chance to endorse Romney when it mattered – before the FL primary – took a pass.

    There is a clear stature gap between the two.

    It’s your logic that seems flawed so you go back under the bridge…

  118. DW says:

    119…looking forward to it! The last Paladin/CFP poll of PA had it 45/44 for Mitt, but that was before our new CTV model was rolled out.

  119. MD says:

    I won’t keep everyone waiting:

    Paladin/CFP – Pennsylvania

    Election for President of the United States

    568 – Certain to Vote (CTV)

    Obama – 48.1%
    Romeny – 45.9%

    % who feel strongly committed to their vote:

    87% – Romney
    79% – Obama

    Romney has a 2 point lead with independents. A significant portion (enough to make it a tie) of those who describe themselves as “Santorum Republicans” are not included in the above because they maintained they will sit out the election.

    Romney has a chance to win PA if we can persuade some of the 21% of voters not firm on Obama to change their votes and get some of the Santo R’s off of the side lines.

  120. MD says:

    We also asked independent women who made it through our screen to be listed as CTV voters (Obama held a big lead – 15% with this group) how Rick Santorum’s candidacy affected their current support:

    56% – said no change at all
    32% – More likely to support Obama as a result of Santorum.
    12% – More likely to support Romney as a result of Santorum.

    It all comes down to independent women. Romney holds a HUGE advantage with independent men.

  121. MD says:

    Sorry for the typo in 125. I have been working day and night on this and on all the double checks from DW. I honestly feel this represents the current situation in PA precisely.

  122. Walt says:

    ALEC email of info regarding a state by state impact on Obammer EPA war on coal.
    Top ten states hurt concerning negative economic impact:
    1. IL
    2. WV (electric bill hike by 7-28%)
    3. Ohio
    4. AL
    5. MI
    6. IN
    7. PA
    8. TN
    9. KY
    10. NC

  123. Tim says:

    #113 and #110:
    Well, there you go. Don’t let anyone except white men vote, like in the 1800’s, and you’re a certain winner.

  124. MD says:

    128 – you will still elect Mancin though. Lucy holds the ball again. Same trick all the time.

  125. MD says:

    129 – how about you need to pay at least $1 in fed income taxes or have worked for 25 years? Sound good?

  126. DW says:

    125-127…thank everyone on your team for us. I know you put in a lot of work.

  127. MD says:

    Wow. The gymnastics the AP goes through to try and spin this must really hurt:


    WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes fell in March by the largest amount in more than a year, indicating that the U.S. housing market remains under strain despite some modest signs of improvement.

    The Commerce Department said Tuesday that sales dropped 7.1 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 328,000 units. That followed a 7.3 percent increase in sales in February. This figure was revised up from an initial estimate that February sales had fallen 1.6 percent.

    The weakness in March could reflect that a warmer-than-normal winter caused sales that normally occur at the start of the spring sales season in March to occur in February instead.

    The median sales price was $234,500 in March, down 1 percent from the February price.

    Sales of new homes stand at just about half the roughly 700,000-a-year pace that analysts consider evidence of a healthy market.

    Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes fell 2.6 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million units. For previously owned homes, economists consider a healthy annual sales rate to be roughly 6 million.

    The sales declines in March were led by a 27 percent drop in the West. Sales in the Midwest fell 20 percent. New-home sales rose 7.7 percent in the Northeast and 3.1 percent in the South.

    A separate report on home prices showed that home prices dropped in February in most major U.S. cities for a sixth straight month. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index shows that prices dropped in February from January in 16 of the 20 cities it tracks.

    Though new homes represent less than 10 percent of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to statistics compiled by the Realtors.

    A key reason for weak sales in the new-home market is that builders must compete with foreclosures and short sales. (Short sales occur when lenders allow homes to be sold for less than what’s owed on the mortgage.)

    About half of the states reported sharp increases in foreclosure activity in February. The pace of foreclosures is rising now that states have reached settlements with the nation’s five biggest mortgage lenders over foreclosure abuses.

    Builders have stopped working on many projects because it’s been hard to get financing and to compete with cheaper resale homes.


  128. Walt says:

    130.128 – you will still elect Mancin though. Lucy holds the ball again. Same trick all the time. [MD]

    Don’t blame me. I don’t blame you for Obammer winning PA.

    Manchin loses my county. 🙂

  129. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    I don’t need your snipes nanny state Tim, I was just saying a fact on the numbers and how to fix them to help the right side

  130. MD says:

    DW – the team appreciates your kind words.

  131. Apologetic California says:

    Democrats upgrade from HIV-infecting their women, to providing their wives with meth to get addicted on. This is Cali’s state treasurer, Bill Lockyer.

  132. DW says:

    129…what is truly sad is that blacks have no real role in American politics. Their bloc vote is taken for granted by the Dems, and they won’t listen to the GOP. So each election, they pick Democrat cotton by showing up to vote for Dems, and then by the next election, they are worse off, unless they had the fortune of losing the election to Republicans who improve the lot of everyone.

  133. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    does Manchin really count? the guy is pratically a moderate Republican

  134. NYCmike says:

    MD – you are not supposed to ask Tim any questions. He just does hit and runs on other people’s statements while never giving a reason why he believes what he believes, other than that he is the closest (almost?) to Social Security and Medicare on this board.

    He votes with the moochers, and he will soon become one!

  135. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    oh wow I was actually not aware he voted against the repeal of O-Care, he’s still more to the right then his colleagues

  136. MD says:

    He is just like the rest of the Marxists. He will toe the line when told to do so:

  137. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    I wonder if a good Senate candidate could wrap that around Manchin’s neck. Is he beatable at all? Polls show him to be heavily favored to be re-elected this fall.

  138. NYCmike says:

    #142 – he seems to play the game so WV residents will keep voting for him.

  139. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    @145 true NYCmike, he is in a state that is overwhelmingly anti-Obama

  140. MD says:

    Author – The WV residents have a very long history of voting for D’s who claim to be conservative, then they are betrayed and then they vote for the D again. Mancin is in for life.

  141. DW says:

    As Wes would say, WV voters are the most stupid people in the whole country.

  142. bio mom says:

    129: I said the racial disparity was a sad thing, so don’t yell at me. But it is a fact. Of course I do not want only whites or white men to vote. Why do you have to say things like that? It is that kind of touchiness that prevents any honest discussion about race in this country.

  143. DW says:

    In honor of the stupidity of WV, here is one I pulled from the archives from two years ago:

    Top ten excuses Republicans give for voting for BlueFrauds:

    10. My grandpa used to vote for my BlueFraud’s grandpa.

    9. My BlueFraud and ONLY my BlueFraud is capable of saving our air base!

    8. My BlueFraud has nice eyes.

    7. I got a really nice letter once from my BlueFraud.

    6. My BlueFraud has been in office for 28 years, so he must be good!

    5. My BlueFraud is a fiscal hawk! So never mind that our country is being destroyed by Dem leadership, my BlueFraud will try to stop it.

    4. My BlueFraud used to go to my church.

    3. My BlueFraud has excellent constituent services.

    2. I have never heard of my BlueFraud’s challenger.

    1. What was the question?

  144. SusyQue says:

    Obama’s Undiplomacy by Victor Davis Hanson

    Most of the criticism of the Obama administration’s foreign policy concerns the failure of “reset diplomacy,” the inability to deal with Iran or North Korea, or the sense that we are ignoring allies and appeasing enemies.
    All true. But under the radar, there are several developments that are far more disturbing than we seem to realize.

  145. MFG says:


    What you hear in LA about Mary Landshrew (from the little old ladies who support her):

    “Mary is nice!”

    Yes, but she’s far left

    “But she’s so nice!”

    But she’s a Communist!

    “I knew her father, Mary is nice!”


  146. jason says:

    Southcentral Pa Vote Report

    Parking lot had mostly English, but some horse and buggies.

    Mennonite ladies had impressive bake sale with shoofly pies and shoofly cakes galore.

    I was number 70 to vote at about 9:30.

    There were some fresh Santorum signs around, some deadenders still don’t get the message.

    Only one campaign worker outside, a woman for Scott Perry.

    The wafting smell of horsecrap made me hungry, so I stopped at Yoder’s for breakfast. I picked from the light fare menu, pork belly with a side of scrapple and mashed potatoes with bacon drippings.

  147. MD says:

    No reason to think about it much. Mancin will be taken from the Senate floor with an oxygen mask when he is 96 years old.

    As for Tim, Bio, I think he sees the same type of racial politicing that we see and he is projecting.

  148. DW says:

    149…and the truth is, the Democrat Party is a political plantation.

    The plantation bosses are Chuck U. Schumer, Dick Durban, and Harry Reid. The woman in charge of the Plantation house is Nancy Pelosi. Rahm Emanuel is the bully with the whip.

    The field slaves are managed by Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, who keep the slaves whipped into frenzied work for the Plantation owners.

    The GOP stands ready to free these slaves, but they seem to enjoy their poverty and never seem bothered by the broken promises of their plantation owners.

    So maybe someday, they will be free at last.

  149. jason says:

    Rockefeller Troll is around, I guess the stench of the NH poll attracted him like a maggot to roadkill.

  150. MFG says:

    But some on our side are just as bad, DW

    The deadenders, who if they got 99.99% of what they want would still scream RINO!!! at the top of their lungs

    And who, if they got 100% of what they wanted would shriek about flip floppers

  151. DW says:

    156….yeah…this is always a troll-free zone when we have a great Romney friendly poll.

  152. MFG says:


    I am friends with one of the most prominent black Republicans in New Orleans and he has bluntly told me to write off his people, there is no chance at all of making any progress

  153. jason says:

    Notice Wobbie Troll disappeared once Romney wrapped up the nomination. He was a one trick pony who had nothing else to day when bashing Romney got old.

  154. MFG says:

    Robbie has reappeared as Conner, IMHO

  155. jason says:

    A prominent black Republican in NO?

    Has he arranged to donate his brain to the Smithsonian?

  156. Barrett says:

    #123 – I don’t find much to object to in regards to Christie. Your argument is what I object to. The vice president shouldn’t be a person who is good at telling other people to go to hell.

    Yeah, that’s a good way to unify the country and motivate the base!

    Especially since you based it on a sports issue.

  157. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    MFG, I heard one GOP talk radio guy (a moderate btw not your typical RINO this and RINo that) say that the AA vote should be left alone by the GOP and to focus on Hispanics not becoming the next AA vote.

  158. MFG says:

    Yes, Bob is one of the ONLY black Republicans in New Orleans, granted

    But he really got out there supporting GWB for both elections, took endless shiit for it, it took a lot of balls for him to do that

  159. MFG says:

    Exactly, Author

    And of course Hispanics are hardly monolithic my niece and nephew are blond haired blue eyed Hispanics who consider themselves white

  160. MFG says:

    Christie’s got an Orca problem, he needs to get stomach stapling surgery then give it a shot in 2016

  161. DW says:

    165…that’s why I had hoped that Herman Cain would have worked out. Its too bad he had all those problems, and that he proved to not be a top tier candidate. I would have loved to see him go to the AA audiences and make the case to them.

  162. Bitterlaw says:

    I like the Amish. They work hard. Tehy leave people alone. They have 8th grade educations. Jul better watch out or he will lose his seat.

  163. MFG says:

    Cain wasn’t ready he just wanted to sell books

    Jindal probably wont get any crossover votes from Blacks if he is ever the R nominee for POTUS one day

  164. DW says:

    167…exactly. Romney cannot afford to have this race be anything other than a referendum on Obama. Putting Christie on the ballot does nothing other than give the Obama-drooling media an out…it will all be about obesity in America, and not about Obama’s failures.

  165. HHR Florida Field Correspondent says:

    Obama doing poorly in Fla. b/c of $4 gas….

  166. MFG says:

    After some thought I like DAniels for VP DW

    Two detail oriented turnaround artists

    Boring boring boring

    But qualified

  167. Rockefeller Republican says:

    164, you don’t read carefully. I cited Christie’s Nets comment as just the latest example of his refreshing candor.

    You don’t know history either… Running mates/VPs are traditionally the hatchet men.

    You wanna us to play nice?? That will be a sure way to lose to the thuggish opposition.

    The base will be motivated. We’ll see about the country after the election.

  168. Bitterlaw says:

    Christie dared to piss off all 11 New Jersey Nets fans? Wow.

  169. Rockefeller Republican says:

    167, LOL. Yeah right…………..

  170. MFG says:

    I like Christie

    He may be too bombastic though

    And looking like John Candy the day before his heart attack is not helpful either…

  171. AuthorLMendez, Liberterian For Romney says:

    btw for those who take the Redskins week of election stuff serious, they face the Panthers at home

  172. Rockefeller Republican says:

    #175, remember the big picture…

    Christie dared to run and get elected in a blue state.

    Christie dared to take on the unions and won.

    Christie has dared to turn NJ around.

    Give Gov. Christie some credit.

    He has done more than any of the weak sisters being mentioned for VP.

  173. MFG says:

    I like Christie



  174. MFG says:

    Of course, only one guys vote counts and it isn’t mine!

  175. Bitterlaw says:

    Breaking News:

    If this ambulance chaser defeats Pat Meehan in November ( ) I am going to declare that I am running for Congress again in 2014.

  176. Bitterlaw says:

    Damn it. Rock likes Christie, I like Christie. What do I do now?

  177. jason says:

    Don’t worry, nobody is a troll by association unless its Dustin/Melissa.

  178. jason says:

    Christie is a pugnacious take no prisoners type who would swallow Biden whole in a debate.

    But you really don’t need the campaign to be all about his weight.

  179. Rockefeller Republican says:

    #184, you could start drinking – but that’s probably not advisable for a diabetic. Plus, you’d probably end up an angry drunk like MD…

    Just declare victory and move on.

  180. jason says:

    Something must be very wrong with Christie for Rockefeller Troll to like him.

    Mitt be warned.

  181. DW says:

    Christie on the ballot affords us the opportunity to take a race that was going to be Reagan vs. Carter, part II, and instead make it Taft vs. Wilson part II. Although I think Christie is heavier than Taft was.

  182. GF says:

    “…remember the big picture…”

    Not the best words to use in reference to Christie. 😉

    Bitter, should that happen, the new registration numbers should help you break 20%. I will officially stay neutral in the current race. If Meehan wins, great! If not, you’ll get a check from me when your committee is set up in 2013.

    I hear that former Miss America Erika Harold is thinking about jumping into the IL-13 race. If she makes it all the way through along with Mia Love, the CBC could have its hands full with four black Republicans making noise and grabbing media attention (unless MSDNC tries to ignore them).

  183. SusyQue says:


  184. GF says:

    “Christie…would swallow Biden whole…”

    Exactly the problem, no? I love the guy but worry about the weight.

  185. jason says:

    Look if by the luck of the draw and the law of averages one day I agree with Bunu on something, does that make me an America hating self loathing racist anti-semitic loser?

  186. Rockefeller Republican says:

    LOL @ #189-90:

    Amusing that many on here base their VP preference on such superficial reasoning.

    Christie’s fat…BFD? Be concerned with his record, not his waistline.

  187. MD says:

    183 – Bitter

    Already sent that douche an email. I don’t know if it is still on his site, but he tried to claim that Meehan drew his own map for his CD

  188. MD says:

    Christie won’t be veep. If Romney scores an upset (yes, I still have Obama as the favorite), then Christie is a logical choice for AG.

  189. MD says:


    Christie’s fat, I get angry now and again, you are a trpll….

    We all have our thing.

  190. NYCmike says:


  191. NYCmike says:

    Crazy talk!

  192. NYCmike says:


  193. SoHope says:

    maybe melissa and dustin tell us why obama is drawing less than half the crowd that he did in 2008 at chapel hill