Romney Leads in FL, Obama Leads in OH and PA
I know I am a little late again this morning, but this time I am blaming the Washington Capitals for not only losing the game last night, but for taking three overtimes to do it in and not allowing me to get home until well after midnight.
This morning, we have a new set of polls from Quinnipiac University for the states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania showing Mitt Romney slightly ahead in Florida, Barack Obama slightly ahead in Ohio while Obama holds a larger lead in Pennsylvania.
PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
Mitt Romney (R) 44%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%PRESIDENT – OHIO (Quinnipiac)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Mitt Romney (R) 39%
All teh polls were done April 25-May 1 among 1169 registered voters in Florida, among 1130 registered voters in Ohio and among 1168 registered voters in Pennsylvania.
I’ll happily take a 2-point deficit among RVs in Ohio with 14% undecided against the incumbent.
There’s def. a trend that Mitt is barely ahead in FL
MD…
(Newt, Santorum and Palin have not endorsed Romney. Why not?
Their lack of endorsement weakens our GOP ticket when we should be united. They should be out there encouraging every segment of society, especially the “conservative evangelicals” to vote for Mitt Romney so we can fire president zero in November. Is that their focus and goal…to fire ooo, or is it to expand their own power, wealth, rank and honor.)
…………………………………
My point is the importance of unity now in the GOP.
Here are the Party ID’s for the Quinnipiac Polls from today.To wit:
FL- 25%(R),31%(D) and 30%(I)
PA- 29%(R),36%(D) and 30%(I)
OH- 26%(R),34%(D) and 34%(I)
Is this data realistic?
Pa looks about right for now. An 8 pt gap with registered voters = about 5 points among likely voters. That cuts Obama’s 2008 ten point margin in half. That gap closing probably has happened mainly in the Philly suburbs I’d guess.
MD
In the Quinnipiac Poll for PA,Romney is doing better among Republicans than The O man with the Donkies.Therefore,I do not believe that Santorum is a factor.This us a D+7 poll and Romney is behind substantially with the Indies.Why?
4 – those are the unweighted numbers. They weighted their polls to come out:
FL 31D 28R 37I
OH 34D 26R 34I
PA 36D 29R 30I
In 2008, it was:
FL 37D 34R 29I
OH 39D 31R 30I
PA 44D 37R 18I
So they basically kept Ds up by the same amount, but reduced the overall number of Ds and Rs and brought up the number of Is. Not very realisitic to think Ds will outnumber Rs by the same amount they did in 2008.
Gallup Party ID polls:
FL: 2008 was D+9, 2011 was D+2, a shift of R+7
OH: 2008 was D+18, 2011 was D+1, a shift of R+17
PA: 2008 was D+16, 2011 was D+5, a shift of R+11
7 – oops, nevermind, you do have the right weighted numbers.
the administration is releasing selected OBL letters today…any bet that they are letters with Bin Laden claiming that he was afraid that the mighty American warrior president was closing in on him?
I like those OH & FL Q registered voter poll numbers.
Anyone seen any OH RTW poll numbers?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsrSAqRrCc0&feature=player_embedded
This is a good ad about Obama’s spiking the football.
if romney is doing well in ohio, he’s also doing well in virginia and n. carolina.
mitt/jindal!
Scott – that should be obvious.
from the pollster:
“Romney’s ability to cut into the president’s leads in Ohio and Florida reflects …changes in the political environment: …voter optimism about the economy has leveled off, reflecting economic statistics over the past month and the public reaction to them.”
Trayvon and Zimmerman: The Structure and Elements of a Disinformation Campaign
By Scott Swett
http://www.americanthinker.com/printpage/?url=http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/../2012/05/trayvon_and_zimmerman_the_structure_and_elements_of_a_disinformation_campaign.html
so who’s buying the AP’s claim UE will be at 7.9% on election day?
7.99999% unemployment on election day
Rasmussen today:
Approval 50/49
10:30 AM- National Day of Prayer
12:00 PM- Montana Senate
1:00 PM- Walmart
3:00 PM- Newspapers
“who’s buying the AP’s claim that UE will be at 7.9% on election day”
Chris Mathews
Alec Baldwin
CNN
ABC
NBC
CBS
Paul Krugman
Reuters
MSNBC does NOT buy it. They believe it will be something like 5.6%
What’s with Democrats claiming to be fake indians.
Maybe Elizabeth Warren was pulling a Ward Churchhill to get her faculty tenure at Harvard.
Ras Montana senate will be interesting. Let’s see if RAS confirms PPP’s 5 point Tester lead.
I think this poll makes Ohio look a bit sweeter for Romney. He’s down by 2, but based on the statements above, the partisan breakdown is a bit skewed in favor of Dems. If he carries the state by 1 or 2, thats good enough!
I’m sure you all are also eagerly awaiting the “Walmart” poll from Rasmussen.
Ras will be updating the MT Senate race today huh? Will be interesting to see if he finds the shift towards Tester PPP claimed
unemployment by state (including U-6 “real unemployment”)
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
Ras MT Senate polling is probably a printing mistake.He will do something else.
Also,once again Ras’ national polling is erratic if he shows Obama with a 50% approval rating and climbing.
I remember during the 2004 election some reporter was trying to suggest something nefarious was happening in the Florida panhandle because Ds outnumbered Rs by a lot yet the R was winning (Bush). They interviewed a poll worker and the lady said something to the effect of ….people don’t bother to change their registration from D when there families have always been Ds, but they would NEVER vote for a liberal here. NEVER. The reporter was shocked. Something like that could be in play in Florida again this year.
Hope, can you explain U-6 to me? It’s early and I’m not firing on all brain cells yet
26 National security (Osama, Afghanistan) bump for Obama. It will fade unless the jobs numbers tomorrow are good. Of course, they will likely manipulate them to guarantee that.
Ras will attribute Obama’s improvement to the bin Laden effect so take his polling with a grain of salt until this time next week.
This Chinese dissident mess up by the Obama administration needs to be trumpeted bu the Romney surrogates. He himself should not say too much. Keep the economic message front and center with minimal distgractions.
Sorry for the spelling typos.
@27 Ds outnumber Rs down here but up in the panhandle you have Ds who vote GOP. Their remnants from the old days when FL was a southern solid Dem state who have been voting more to the right post-New Deal
Elizabeth Warren listed herself as a native american in order to benefit when getting a job. Here great great great grandmother is listed as a cherokee. What does that make her 1/32 Cherokee?
http://bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20220502warren_i_used_minority_listing_to_make_friends
U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
#34 – You’ve never heart of The Chief of the Great Wolf Tribe, SittingWarren?
and I got a laugh from a full blooded Seminole college room mate when I claimed my 1/16 cherokee heritage in a conversation.
He said, “do you have a number? if not, your not native american”.
but then he go expelled a year later for hiding pot on campus…so I got the last laugh.
I am hence forth known as Squatting Dog.
In Ras’ daily tracking poll,he has the country back in love with Obama,but Romney gaining on him from 3 behind to 2 behind today!
I watched Dances with Wolves. I will put that on my application to teach at Harvard.
Don’t forget to mention you’re a fan of Turok
Turok was killed by Biggie.
Sorry. That was Tupac.
Romney winning back Catholics, big lead with Protestants.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/03/gallup-catholic-vote-a-tossup-4646/
Dances With Wolves…great movie…a classic!
Real Protestants or those weak, squishy Protestants?
With overweighted D counts, Obama does not make it to 45, let alone 50 except in PA. He will lose these states.
Yes, PA is an absolute lock for Romney.
Pennsylvania is the ninth most useless state in the country.
I heard they have a Governor with the leadership skills of a gerbil.
California is most useless. Others in the top 10 include the Dakotas, Vermont (we already have New Hampshire), Nebraska and Kentucky (we already have Tennesee). Discuss.
California is more useless than the other 49 states put together.
12% of the population and 33% of the welfare payments.
Sarcasm aside, PA is not a lock but clearly doable. The UE numbers and economy are stalling and this will be a rough summer for the dems.
http://usconservatives.about.com/b/2012/05/03/3-new-swing-state-polls-show-bad-news-for-obama.htm
Earl Ray Tomblin, Democratic West Virginia Governor, Says Obama Hasn’t Earned His Vote
Dems in WVA know all they have to do is semi-bash a lib and they will have jobs for life
I find it amusing that the people calling California useless are posting this on the internet using various software and hardware created in California. Pennsylvania could be swallowed up by that 50 year-old fire in Centralia, our lives wouldn’t be affected a bit. Except for all the dead people of course, but that’s fewer electoral votes that Obama will need.
I find it amusing that you think the state of california has anything to do with the hardware and software thats been created.
Everyone knows California has nothing to do at all with your high-tech gadgets. Absolutely not. These things are created by the well-worn hands salt-of-the-earth miners of Allegheny County.
You’re correct, it has to do with people, not the state. If California fell into the ocean, the only things that will be missed are Stone, Russian River, North Coast, Lost Coast, and Green Flash.
California is great. That’s why we want it!
All my techie stuff is from china, japan, korea. The company headquartwrs are in CA dor the nice weather, earthquakes, and high taxes.
WV EARLY VOTING UPDATE
37.5K total early votes
22.9 D early voters
11.1 R early voters
3.4 Indy early voters
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of 55 counties
11 have more early R votes than early D
5 other counties more early R+ I than D
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No big surprises concerning individual counties or party breakdown of early voters.
California gave me to the US.
“California [s great! That’s why we want it!”
You already have it.
The one thing I think is a shame about Newt Gingrich being out of the race now, is that one of the guys I taught with (and grew up with, who is recently retired) was a spitting image of Newt–face, body build, etc. And he was a fellow social studies teacher.
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Newt could have hired him as a double.
Walt, is your friend a man-whore too?
Don’t get too comfortable, Mexifornia. No matter how much the Americans hate you, another group always come along to take your place.
Haters gotta hate.
Anyways, Obama launches probably the most sexist campaign tactic ever. Pimps a ho named Julia and tries to walk through her fictional lifetime on how many government programs she’d get on. It doesn’t mention how she’d pay for any of it (who can blame her, stupid liberal chicks think birth control pills should be paid by the Vatican).
So if your idea of feminism is mooching of her sugar daddy Uncle Sam and the backpocket of male taxpayers, I guess this Julia campaign works.
Michelle Malkin/Ann Coulter needs to mock this thing quick.
When the jobs number disappoints tomorrow, the talking point in the MSM will be that the recovery is “sustainable.”
69
Why would it? It can be manipulated.
Take care of Julia from cradle to grave!
Forward!!
GFY, Phil. How am I supposed to afford birth control as an unpaid intern at the Museum of Obscure Oppression Art? We can discuss this after I get back from Starbucks with my $6.50 Mocha half-latte.
You all suck. Back to work. See y’all later. LOL
I am trapped in court. I am waiting for 2 other cases to conduct testimony. Zzzzzzzzzzzzz
Julia
Suck it up, B**ch!!
Phil- Your unkind vulgarity is not appreciated or appropriate. Julia is a child of God and should be rebuked only gently and with love.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/03/possum-tree-drinking-game-dunedin
These are very good polls for Romney. Matter of fact once adjusted to accurate party ID’s Florida and Ohio are in the Romney camp. PA is within about 3-4 points. The main issue is Virginia, I still have him losing VA barely by 1-2 pts and therefore the election.
Bring the focus back to California
California last again in business climate ranking
http://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2012/05/02/california-last-again-in-ceo-business.html
“hostility to business, high state taxes and overly stringent regulations, are driving business out of the Golden State has fast has they can move”
Julia lives in California.
She would not be treated like she should if she lived in Texas.
#68 – Romney hits the nail on the head
Most of the people who have lost jobs in the recession are Women. The only reason Romney is getting attacked is because Obama can’t run on his record.
#79 – I’m guessing at this point people are leaving California to look for jobs. Am I wrong?
Julia’s not leaving.
Julia wont abandon her messiah
Why would I move to Texas? I’m not a gun owning Jesus Freak.
You are right. Middle class whites are leaving the state in droves. The biggest employer in California is now the state government.
It’s ironic, my wife and I had considered Julia as a name if we had a daughter.
Not so much now…
I didn’t say California isn’t a cesspool of libtard effluence. I’m just saying that due to our long storied state that created fabulous Republican politicians, we have SOME things to give to the rest of the country. Unlike Pennsylvania.
Here are the top five and bottom five in Chief Executive’s Magazine Best Business climate ranking:
Best States:
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. North Carolina
4. Tennessee
5. Indiana
Worst States:
50. California
49. New York
48. Illinois
47. Massachusetts
46. Michigan
We gun totin Jesus freaks are employed.
As a Marylander, I quite like Texas. My lifelong friend is originally from there. It’s the home of mission control, and West Texas was a a major part of my thesis research.
I hope you guys stick with the Union, wouldn’t want to lose you.
And amen on #90
All Democrats should be given Native American names
Our glorious Leader should henceforth be called “Lying B@stard”
Montana Senate(Rasmussen)
Rehberg: 53%
Tester: 43%
Montana Senate (PPP)
Rehberg: 33%
Tester: 63%
Sorry, just making a prediction
Coakley 2.0 circling the drain lolololol:
http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=131385
The comments to the above are hilarious I prefer
“Dances With Marxists”
92, He-Who-Compresses-”Girlfriends”
so Rasmussen says the GOP has expanded their lead in the MT senate race to 10 but PPP claims tester is up 5? Jensen really needs to get off the hack crack
#99. That’s assuming Rasmussen is correct. Obviously there needs to be a third poll done.
Today’s Obama Unicorn pic (this is one of my favorites):
http://www.faithmouse.com/barack_obama_unicorn_nude.jpg
PPP is preparing to poll IA & OH to give Obama some help there
@100 I’ll take likely voters over registered voters any day
Yeah, maybe Montana wants to reelect a Communist in the middle of a depression
We need another poll, PPP has such credibility…
#73:
The poster who wrote this should be made to go to prison, and be a girl.
Discuss…….
Not all likely voter polls are created equal.
#100:
No, you’re wrong. No 3rd poll is needed. Ras is right on this race, since everyone here said so. Don’t you know the HHR rules?
I know who would be:
“Hider-of-Love-Child”
“Glow-Bull-Warmer”
“Stainer-of-Dresses”
“Gaff-A-Minute”
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“Who would be “Mouth of Dung”?
or “Lying Rhino”???
66.Walt, is your friend a man-whore too?
Comment by SoHope
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Nay.
He was married and went through one divorce. Does not have serial wives and mistresses.
Tester barely beat an incumbent sitting US Senator plagued by scandal in 2006 with the wind at his party’s back. Now he faces an incumbent Republican Congressmen who represents the entire state like Tester does in a Presidential election year.
You’re right. Rehberg shouldn’t even bother campaigning. Tester has no chance.
Drive-by Tim says:
May 3, 2012 at 11:48 am
You all suck. Back to work. See y’all later. LOL
————–
Tim says:
May 3, 2012 at 12:39 pm
#73:
The poster who wrote this should be made to go to prison, and be a girl.
Discuss……
————-
Very well, Tim, you shall go to prison and be made a girl.
@110 I think Tester’s a goner but Rehberg will have to work for it and in the end it’ll porbably be closer then the Presidential race will be in MT
I just think talking absolutes on a race still 6 months away is crazy. Little money has been spent on both sides and the campaign really hasn’t even heated up yet.
“I think Tester’s a goner but…”
How dare you declare a race over! Such actions will not be tolerated as they offend Brandon’s sensibilities!
Off with your head!
I like several polls of any race. One or two polls can be off. Several polls can provide a snapshot, as to where things are, at that moment.
It’s dangerous to hang your hat on one poll. Ask the Literary Digest.
HHR has it’s own God, now?
It was just a matter of time. One missed dose of Thorazine, and there you are………..
#116 Excellent commmentary, Tim. I shall commute your prison sentence. You shall remain a man.
I am familiar with Thor… but who is this Thorazine? Is that his new mistress?
I would love to be a guest on your program, Tim.
We can talk about how my fellow deity Obama plans to smash the Republicans with his sword of truth.
With the proliferation of PPP polls. They cloud the outlook on theses races so far. We all remember when PPP desperately tried to prop up Elaine Marshall against Richard Burr when we all knew that under the political circumstances of 2010 Burr was has safe has could be.
Right now PPP is just mucking up the waters for everyone.
Gallup
Obama: 46%(+1)
Romney: 45%(-1)
There’s no denying Obama has gotten a bump from the Osama killing anniversary
We all knew he would get a balance. Eventually, he will run out of things to create a balance for him.
I believe the word you are looking for is “bounce”.
new thread
I am happy that so far Obama’s bounce is only putting him up 1 over Romney. But that could go higher for a few days once the 5 day tracker catches up to the 3 day approval tracker. I was most happy to see the Romney number go up over Obama today despite the Obama approval going up. This race is essentially tied nationally.