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Obama Leads Romney By 8% in MI

Interesting numbers from Scott Rasmussen in Michigan. While other polling organizations were showing a tightening race in Michigan (one even giving Romney a lead), Rasmussen is out with a poll showing Obama leading Romney by 8%.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%

This poll was don June 14th among 500 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 12:18 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (425)

425 Responses to “Obama Leads Romney By 8% in MI”

  1. janz says:

    First!

  2. jenny-the conservative movement is dead says:

    will amnesty help obama in states like arizonia, colorado or nevada?

  3. Bryan says:

    Interesting numbers I would have thought Rassmussen would have showed a tied race here.

  4. Barrett says:

    jenny, I think it will even out

  5. jan says:

    Once again Mitt Romney has proven to be a good candidate. Staying completely on message about the economy.

    Lets make this very clear. Obama’s political distraction changes nothing in policy. Already deportations of non criminal illegals were stopped, according to the actions of the Department of Homeland Security. This is strictly a political action by a desperate campaign.

  6. Tim V says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    June 15, 2012 at 11:38 am

    Tim V. – My son starts college in 4 years. My Dad better pick up the pace on the beer and cancer-sticks. We need to pay tuition.

    Bitter, Tell your son that he is going to have to help pay for college. Have him start working over the summers and have him give you 1/2 of his earnings for you to put in a 537 college plan for him. Let him start at a community college and have him get a part time job. Teach him early the value of hard work, savings, thrift and frugality. It will make him a better man.

    If he wants to major in Philosophy, Art, or Psychology or something like that, tell him he is on his own.

  7. DW says:

    This is the image that symbolizes the vision Obama and democrats have for America:

    http://www.drudgereportarchives.com/data/2012/06/08/20120608_192331.htm

  8. lisab says:

    “I told everyone that Obama would basically offer this by decree many months ago and I was laughed at by people on the board.

    I am sure that apologies are forthcoming.”

    addisonst predicted amnesty years ago

  9. jan says:

    HotAir.com pretty much nails it:

    So, the “framing” economic speech yesterday was a bust — yeah, they’re going to need us to move away from that ol’ chestnut pretty quickly — so here comes the next big talking point in the Obama-campaign wheelhouse.

  10. Barrett says:

    I hate addison because everyone else does

    Wait, no I dont!

    Why does everyone hate Addison? I think I missed out on that

  11. lisab says:

    “Obama wants to add 800,000 people to the unemployment/food stamp rolls.

    Open your wallets.”

    ILLEGALS don’t count as unemployed

  12. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V. – Good ideas but I was hoping to blow huge money so he can be the third generation to go to Lafayette College. Why? Because I’m shallow and loved it there. The problem with Community College is that he will still be in my house. He is always welcome to return on holidays and week-ends. I won’t have a truly empty nest until 2025 when my daughter should be graduating from college.

  13. jan says:

    Also the work permit stuff is laughable. Permit for what work? Especially for under-educated illegals.

    More workers without more jobs = higher unemployment rate. BO is an idiot.

  14. Bitterlaw says:

    I don’t hate Add. He is a visionary. He was the only person on Earth to predict that the Packers would win the Super Bowl after the 2010 season. Well, him and the ESPN and Sports Illustrated experts I posted yesterday.

  15. Titus says:

    A one day poll?

  16. sir Albert says:

    I agree w Jan. Romney needs to stay focused. WI proves we outnumber the takers.

  17. phoenixrisen says:

    Obama may have just lost the midwest. He is making a play for FL, CO, and NV. He’s gambling that IA, MI, WI, and OH will lie down on this. His poll numbers must be that bad and he may be pre-

  18. MD says:

    Don’t put it past him to simply say he would ignore a SCOTUS ruling. Evidence? He has already directed Justice to ignore laws he doesn’t like. Also, there was a reason why he mentioned the fact that SCOTUS is unelected. It builds the case to ignore them.

  19. MD says:

    This may shift my thinking on Veep a bit. I had Portman as 1 and Rubio as 2. May have to shift that.

  20. phoenixrisen says:

    pre-empting/softening the blow he issss going to get from the Supreme Court on Obamacare.

  21. phoenixrisen says:

    very good point MD. Rubio may become the #1 for VP now.

  22. jan says:

    This analysis is wrong. This political distraction does not change the dynamics of this election for Romney. He is focus on the economy and will continue to do so. Nothing has changed here, the same policy that was carried out yesterday is the same has it was today.

    I do think on the congressional level Republicans have a powerful talking point in states like Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Dakota, Wisconsin etec.

    Watch for the reaction of Democrats from states with no large Latino population, it could backfire on Obama.

  23. DW says:

    Romney up again in Gallup 46/45

  24. Bitterlaw says:

    I am starting to like Kelly Ayotte more and more for VP. I would rank her just behind Rubio. I would love to ser debate Biden. She has already argued in front of the U.S. Supreme Court. I think she can dispatch Biden pretty quickly. She also counters some of the War on Women b.s. and can help in PA since she is a Penn State grad.

  25. todd says:

    This clumsy attempt to rally the “base” (both the legal and illegal base) was surely moved from the original early October announcement to June in order to change the emerging narrative that Obama is Bush I and this is 1992 all over again.

    There is only one problem with this calculation by Team Obama: the undecideds voters are overwhelmingly white, middle and working class.

    How is this blatantly obvious de facto amnesty attempt going to play with these voters in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pennsylvania?

  26. lisab says:

    addisonst predicted you would like Kelly Ayotte

  27. lisab says:

    Jenny McCarthy accidentally sent nude photo to dentist

    Jenny McCarthy (Evan Agostini/AP)

    Model/actress Jenny McCarthy was left mortified recently after accidentally sending a nude photo of herself to her son’s dentist.

  28. Dr. SoHope says:

    McCain: Adelson funding Romney Super PAC with ‘foreign money’

    Is this guy allergic to winning???

  29. MD says:

    lisab – can u give her my email address please?

  30. MD says:

    I really, truly cannot stand John McCain. Even after the media trashed him in 08, he still wants to be their best friend.

  31. Bitterlaw says:

    lisab – it happens. MD’s dentist just laughed when he got MD’s photo. He thought it was funny.

  32. pitchaboy says:

    I believe Obama’s move to stop deporting illegals is unconstitutional and the House needs to hold him accountalbe for it.

  33. lisab says:

    Here’s a snapshot from the April data:

    States
    2 states are in a steady expansion: Alaska, North Dakota.
    5 are at risk, meaning they’re still in positive territory but slipping toward recession: Illinois, Maine, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Wisconsin.
    The remaining 44 (including D.C.) are in recovery, meaning they’re still weak but rising toward expansion. The states improving into this category in April were Alabama, Connecticut, Missouri, Oregon and South Carolina, according to Moody’s.
    0 are in a moderating recession, meaning their economies are not contracting as severely as six months earlier.
    0 are in an unrelenting recession. It’s been that way since January. The last state out was Georgia.

  34. MD says:

    Agree 100% Pitch. Watch what Obama does next.

  35. Scott says:

    #23-DW
    Also in today’s Gallup, Omama’s approval/disapproval ratings are 44%/49%,respectively.

  36. Dr. SoHope says:

    The only real beef I have with Obama’s executive order is that he went around Congress. Immigration isn’t a huge issue for me…I know it is for some here.

    I hear that the E.O. is similar to Rubio’s proposal. If Obama wanted to solve a problem why didnt he instruct dems in the senate to work with Rubio?

    This is purely about buying votes for November.

  37. MD says:

    Hope – he went around congress is my exact point! I guess next he will just ignore a scotus ruling and we can all yawn.

  38. AuthorLMendez says:

    Actual tweet by PPP:

    “Going to have some very important Friday afternoon polling data in a little bit- what % of NV voters would trust John Ensign with their pets”

    WOW

  39. Dr. SoHope says:

    I think this will hurt Obama in IA and WI

  40. pitchaboy says:

    While Polaris may have been terrible with polling, he predicted backin 2009 tht Obama would not care about little matters like separation of powers. He also predicted that Obamacare would be passed one way or the other and it certainly was by reconciliation. The man was dead on in his assessment of Obama.

  41. Dr. SoHope says:

    what a hacktastic tweet!

  42. pitchaboy says:

    Obama’s move is because he is hurting in CO,NV and NM and if he loses them he has no hope whatsoever. He is hoping this will give him an outside chance of FL, which I dont believe it will.

  43. jason says:

    Ï don’t hate Add. He is a visionary.”

    Yeah, he saw the success of Obamanomics before anybody else here did.

  44. Bitterlaw says:

    man was dead on in his assessment of Obama.

    Comment by pitchaboy

    Polaris was also an elitist, primadonna who felt that he was entitled to be worshipped as a god because he made one correct election prediction in Georgia. His “don’t denigrate me” post was all I needed to understand him. HHR is a brutal place. Stay or go but if you stay – be ready to defend what you say. If you are wrong, admit it (unless you are lisab because we gave up on trying to enforce it with her years ago.)

  45. david says:

    Job programs for illegals….wonder how unemployed “legals” feel about that? I don’t think this will help him overall. He might had done it also to offset Rubio as VP.

  46. 99 Week unemployed guys says:

    Damn illegals took the jobs we were too good to take. Hey – what’s on Sports Center?

  47. EML says:

    Report is Cuomo is pursuing opening up fracking in my county. Libtards who don’t live here are incensed. http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06-13/idea-of-limited-ny-fracking-divides-energy-camps

  48. Howard Dean says:

    Front page Yahoo online poll has 75% against Obama’s amnesty plan.

  49. Bitterlaw says:

    Cuomo clearly wants the 2016 Dem Nomination. If Hilary ended up as the nominee for Pres. that would keep Cuomo off the ticket (can’t have 2 from the same state). I don’t think HC would ever accept the VP slot unless she really wanted to coast into retirement and hope for some bad news.

  50. SusyQue says:

    Polaris was an interesting fellow and he gave substantive reasons for his choices. 2008 had a lot going on and no one realized the reality of the massive crowds that gathered for ooo. They were all duped. Hannity was out there telling people about his radical background, but people were tired of Bush and wanted someone different. They sure got it. The press also added to the confusion because they went 99% for ooo. He was not vetted! I imagine the pollsters were dazed with the fact that ooo was not vetted. Since it was such an unusual election, Polaris should be give some slack. We all mistakes. His are forgivable.

  51. janz says:

    I have felt Rubio is the best candidate to fill the VP puzzle piece, for some time now. This latest Presidential order only adds more reasons for that choice, as Rubio has his own remedies for young illegal adults, which, BTW, are really not that far out of line.

    Demographically, we are heading in the direction of a more diverse national population. There will have to be some allowances made, to soften the blow of immigrating to this country, for those who are deemed to deserve it — non free-loading, young, productive, long term members of this country. The ‘deport them all’ meme does not serve to grow or sustain a political party, at this juncture in time.
    ____________________________________

    Shrinking the gender gap, brought to you by Scott Brown. I think it is a well done ad!

  52. Apologetic California says:

    Libtard Obama sees his approval rating dip to 44% for the first time in a few months I believe in Gallup.

  53. Bitterlaw says:

    “Polaris was an interesting fellow” – SusyQue

    There is no way on this planet that SusyQue is who she claims to be. What woman says, “interesting fellow?”

  54. janz says:

    This is what you get when government is burdened with deficits because it has taken over too much of the people’s business.

    Greece’s rundown state hospitals are cutting off vital drugs, limiting non-urgent operations and rationing even basic medical materials for exhausted doctors as a combination of economic crisis and political stalemate strangle health funding.

    My fingers are so tightly crossed that the supreme court throws out the HC Act, that they hurt!

  55. janz says:

    SusyQue, Bitter loves you. His comments are nothing more than ‘blog hugs!’

  56. MD says:

    54 – don’t be certain he won’t decide the “ignore” the ruling. Can’t happen? Yea, people told me that about DREAM via EO as well.

    Polaris was right in his concerns regarding Obama. He was wildly wrong in 08 on party ID and then took to blaming the voters. That was Jake like. Then, he couldn’t take the heat. We all take heat here. If you can’t take it go to romperroom.com. They play nice in the sand box over there.

  57. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – are you saying we can take down romperroom.com?

  58. jan says:

    Lmao did anyone just watch the Rose Garden press conference?

  59. AuthorLMendez says:

    I don’t have an issue with a guy interrupting this a-hole, but once you do it don’t be surprised if you’re not invited back

  60. JHCOAMFC says:

    I doubt he’d ignore a scotus decision but I suppose its possible

    More likely he’d start a war in October

  61. dylan says:

    Polaris was also “wrong” about obama being like kenya’s Odinga and not allowing any future elections and the like. Obama doesn’t have and never had that much power. 2008 election was his high water mark. The guy is on his way out. The people have had enough.

  62. JHCOAMFC says:

    I liked polaris very pompous but interesting

  63. JHCOAMFC says:

    If he could suspend elections he would

    He is another chavez or worse

  64. dylan says:

    What I can’t understand is how/why the “good people” of michigan continue to let the democrats run the show in national elections. Sheesh–at least give the gop a chance every now and again. Their state is in ruins.

  65. dylan says:

    He does not have the power to do that—-he is not THAT well loved or feared. Military would not stand for him suspending elections. And an october war changes nothing.

  66. ssq says:

    I am an idiot.

    I know not what I say.

  67. AuthorLMendez says:

    Obama’s fit not good for him, he could have just ignored the guy; bad move if you ask me

  68. JHCOAMFC says:

    Janz I need a ruling from you

    If hellcare is overturned doesn’t that mean it was never legally in force?

    And doesn’t that then mean when I wrote all those pieces on bjg that it would never pass that I was actually correct?

    Ie it was never legal therefore it never really passed?

  69. lisab says:

    “He does not have the power to do that”

    he is guarded by marines

    if he declared himself president for life he would be president for less than an hour

  70. ssq says:

    Polaris is as much a pompous ass as I am dumb.

    That’s a lot of pompous ass.

  71. lisab says:

    that is IF the secret service tried to help him

  72. MD says:

    The following is from a subscription service and I can’t link it. This is a START but won’t solve the problem. They need to cut benefits now.

    Pa. Legislation to Retire DB Plans Gains Steam
    0 Comments Post Comment June 15, 2012
    Republican lawmakers in Pennsylvania introduced legislation in the state House of Representatives this week that would end defined benefit pension plans for new state and school employees. So reports the Pennsylvania Independent.

    Pennsylvania’s State Employees Retirement System and its Public School Employees Retirement System are almost $40 billion unfunded. Adding new people to an already stressed system “only makes the problem worse,” says Rep. Warren Kampf, the sponsor of Tuesday’s bill.

    If adopted, the measure would place all new state hires in a defined contribution pension plan similar to private sector 401(k) plans in which their employer would contribute 4% of the worker’s salary.

    The new measure allows existing employees to retain their defined benefit plans, but those opting to switch to the defined contribution system would be rewarded with a 7% employer contribution, the Independent reports.

    The legislation corrects the “historic mishandling of pension obligations for future employees,” while also giving “control of retirement funds to enrollees,” Kampf said in the statement, the Times Herald of Norristown reports.

    Related Content
    June 4, 2012
    Pa. Lawmakers Pitch Pension Merger, DB Closure
    The proposed legislation, however, “sounds even worse” than offering all new workers a defined contribution plan, says union CEO David Fillman of the Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 13. Removing employees from the current pension system extends the problem by reducing the number of people who contribute toward the unfunded liability, Fillman says.

    Kampf disagrees, saying the measure will lead to lower pension costs in the long term, although he also admits that the numbers haven’t been calculated yet, the Independent reports.

    Gov. Tom Corbett backs pension reforms. All state and local government budget issues can be traced back to pension problems, he says.

    Republicans in Pennsylvania’s state senate have also been working on legislation to move away from the defined benefit retirement plan structure, as reported.

  73. JHCOAMFC says:

    Screw MI they put people like granholm in two terms no less and vote.for obama fuuuck them all they deserve everything they get

  74. MD says:

    58 – No. Leave the fuuuccking kids alone.

  75. MD says:

    Anyone have a video link to the presser?

  76. lisab says:

    five things mitt romney is doing correctly, and frustrating the crap out of democrats in the process

    1. Full spectrum rapid response. The Romney/RNC team has achieved a situational awareness that stretches from old media to new media and into social media in ways that no previous Republican campaign has achieved.

    2. Message discipline. All the rapid response in the world doesn’t do much good if the message is all over the place or if your campaign is easily knocked off key, but so far the RNC and the Romney campaign have ruthlessly stuck to hammering Obama on the economy.

    3. Playing effective offense. When David Axelrod staged an event in Boston to try to embarrass Mitt Romney, Romney one-upped Axelrod by staging an event at Solyndra in California on the same day. But that wasn’t the end of the story. The Romney camp kept the details of their event so close to the vest that it caught the media unawares, creating surprise that led to strong positive coverage.

    4. Fundraising. The Obama campaign bragged that it would be the first billion dollar campaign, but the Romney/RNC campaign is now outraising them significantly.

    5. Looking like winners. It has been less than a month since Mitt Romney officially clinched the GOP nomination by winning the Texas primary on May 29. But in the weeks since then, Obama has not had one single good day. From awful jobs numbers to the “private sector is doing fine” to the debacle in Wisconsin and the raw exposed divisions within the Democratic Party over his tactics and rhetoric, Obama has been suffering a flurry of terrors.

  77. MD says:

    Lisab – they have been doing a good job. At this point in the general in 08, I thought McCain was doing a decent job as well so I am going to reserve judgement until October.

    I didn’t like McCain back then either but closed ranks after it was obvious he would be the candidate.

  78. SusyQue says:

    JHCOAMFC…Your posts are littered with the “F”
    word. It diminishes the authenticity of your message. Whom are you supporting in November?

  79. janz says:

    JHCOAMFC

    If hellcare is overturned doesn’t that mean it was never legally in force?

    And doesn’t that then mean when I wrote all those pieces on bjg that it would never pass that I was actually correct?

    Ie it was never legal therefore it never really passed?

    If HC is overturned than it was never in force, ‘legally.’ But, nevertheless, it passed.

    I don’t know who you are, so I can’t comment on the so-called pieces you wrote at bjg.

  80. MD says:

    Janz – it is MFG

  81. MFG says:

    Hey janz forgot to change my.name back!

  82. Dr. SoHope says:

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/reporter-heckles-obama-white-house-immigration-announcement_647290.html

    when reports turn on a liberal you know something is seriously wrong.

  83. lisab says:

    addisonst predicted you would forget to change your name back

  84. SusyQue says:

    #71…Chicken! you can’t use your own moniker to post. Shame on you!

  85. SusyQue says:

    Bitter…you are an “interesting fellow!” You are also “pill” when you want to be. But then…we are all “pills” once in awhile.

  86. Dr. SoHope says:

    some of the posters here are pills some are suppositories.

  87. DW says:

    83…oh, now I see it was there too.

  88. Barrett says:

    I am not a pill

    I am intraveinous

  89. Dylan says:

    Biden’s speaking the truth. All the growth and hope and forward progress is in China, not here, thanks in part to Biden and Obama’s business unfriendly policies and total non-concern over the national debt. Don’t shoot the messenger.

  90. SusyQue says:

    #89…LOL…you at toooo much!

  91. SusyQue says:

    #55…janz..I’ll try to remember that when He gets the urge to attack my integrity. (wink)

  92. SusyQue says:

    #95…this president doesn’t care about anyone but himself and his leftist buddies. He is outrageous
    in using exec. order to make changes that should be
    discussed with the congress. He has no respect for our Constitution. I wish HE could be deported!

  93. sickofdems says:

    89……did you just call me a butt-plug???

  94. Mr.Vito says:

    “lisab – it happens. MD’s dentist just laughed when he got MD’s photo. He thought it was funny.”

    sorry, MD, I never did apologize for that… I meant to send him a picture of my mouth to see if I could be fitted for dentures.

  95. GF says:

    C

    Good afternoon, HHR.

  96. DW says:

    GF…you are welcome.

  97. Brandon says:

    That reporter was from the Daily Caller, wasn’t he?

  98. GF says:

    So, PPP(D) is conerned with whether Nevadans trust Ensign with their pets. Perhaps the better question would be if Navadan husbands trust Ensign with their wives.

    Alternatively, in a show of bipartisanship, they could ask if Nevadans trust Harry reid with their papers (given his propensity to misplace them), but apparently, 50% decided that they do.

  99. GF says:

    102- Indeed, thank you for the set-up.

  100. Garp says:

    The Dow is close to our stop loss cover number of 12820. let’s increase it just a tad to 12850. The fast stochastic indicates a topping point and the 90 day moving average will likely pose as a resistance area.

  101. Garp says:

    you can use the chart that tim v posted in 101 to see where we are. if you change the lower indicator from macd to fast stochastics, you will see what I mean.

  102. DW says:

    PPP(D)

    Nevada – Should Cowboy Poets be satisified with the level of funding provided by Harry Reid?

    Yes, Cowboy Poets are getting enough taxpayer funding – 42%

    No, Cowboy Poets should get more funding – 57%

    Unsure – 1%

  103. lisab says:

    Do you support President Obama’s illegal immigrant amnesty program?

    yes: 2%
    no: 98%

    Howie Carr show massachusetts’ #1 radio show

  104. DrJay says:

    Gallup Party ID (adults)

    Dem 30
    Rep 30
    Ind 39

    With Leaners
    Dem 44
    Rep 42

  105. AWESOME says:

    I have been a lurker for quite a long time. My main original motivation
    to frequent this blog was related to polls, and I appreciate all the good
    stuff I have learned here about them.
    Now, it is time for me to give something back by providing some useful
    contribution to this blog. I am not a savvy political expert, neither
    a professional statistician; however, in my work I have to deal with
    a lot of data so that I became acquainted with some statistical data treatment.
    What I will propose is a methodology to treat polls data based on sensible,
    and scientifically sound (science is what I do for living) assumptions with
    the intent of providing more reliable results.
    I named the methodology AWESOME, an acronym that stands for:
    Averaged, Weighted, and Enhanced Statistically for Obviating to Model Errors.
    How awesome is this methodology we will see after the elections.
    In the last few months I have spent quite a bit of my free time in collecting
    election and poll data and in programming the code for the data treatment.
    I hope that there will be some interest in what I will provide you, as this
    methodology allows to generate more credible (hopefully) poll results,
    if some cross tables are available.
    I will explain the basis of the methodology in the next posts, but before I
    need to make a few apologies. First, I apologize for my pedantic style.
    Then, I have to apologize also for my poor English (you have already noticed
    at this point), but English is only my fourth language in terms of fluency.
    Finally, it was my intention to show the results in a very nice way using
    tables with frames, colors, and all the whistles and bells; however,
    WORDPRESS ignores all the corresponding html tags in the comment box.
    In the end, the presentation of the results will be not as polished as I
    would have liked.

  106. DrJay says:

    Happy birthday to Bob McDonnell!

  107. AWESOME says:

    This post will be a little bit difficult to digest, but I think it is necessary
    in order to better understand the foundation of the AWESOME methodology.
    When treating data there are two main categories of errors:
    Aleatory Errors:
    These errors are intrinsic and are associated to random phenomena.
    For instance, when making a measure repetitively you will get a dispersion
    of results with a certain standard deviation.
    In the case of polls this uncertainty comes from the sampling they are using.
    The Margin of Error (MoE) is often two times σ (standard deviation) as
    they announce a 95% degree of confidence.
    A way to reduce the final uncertainty is to combine/average independent set
    of results. In principle, if the results are independent, the MoE should be
    reduced by a factor of √n where n is the number of results we are averaging.
    Again, coming back to the example of the polls this is the reason why
    RealClearPolitics average gives quite reasonable results; however,
    we will see later that the way they are averaging is incorrect.
    Epistemic Errors:
    These are errors related to lack of knowledge, and they are in principle reducible.
    One way to reduce the associated uncertainty is to apply some sort of model. For instance,
    Rasmussen applies a party weighting to reduce the error.
    However, models have errors too. One method for reducing model errors is by data
    assimilation (called also adjustment, tuning, calibration, etc.). This is feasible
    when useful and relevant experimental information is available. A classical example
    of this (Bayesian approach) is the Kalman filter used by NASA for the trajectory
    of their spacecrafts. In our case the experimental information is given by election
    results, in particular the exit polls for party identification.
    Now, given this information, I will outline the AWESOME methodology in the next post.

  108. Waingro says:

    #111, welcome.

  109. sir Albert says:

    Awesome, are you an android?

  110. Justis M. says:

    you are right lisab, team romney is running a smart campaign.

  111. AWESOME says:

    In the following I provide the outline of the AWESOME methodology, but I will spare you
    the fine details. First we Average, but the average has to be Weighted.
    Would you equally average a poll with a 50% of MoE with another with a 1% of MoE?
    Of course not. AWESOME uses the correct statistical weights, which takes into account
    the MoE, in averaging.
    Another factor to consider is the reliability of the polls. I think everyone agrees
    that adult polls are less reliable than likely voters ones. I did not have time or
    resources to prove, as common HHR wisdom indicates, that there are definite biases
    depending on the kind of polls.What AWESOME does is to apply a penalizing factor to the MoE
    of adults and registered voters polls, so that this is also reflected in the weighting.
    Another variable to consider in the weighting is time, because polls are just a snapshot
    of the moment at which they are taken. Our host, Dave Wissing, takes the last poll to
    generate his electoral map. This means that he gives a 100% weighting to that poll.
    I think that using an exponential behavior is more appropriate in order to describe
    a “decay” of the importance of the poll. We can weight with a factor (I apologize, but I cannot
    put the sup script font for the exponent) exp(-λ Δt), where exp is the base of natural
    logarithm, λ is the time decay constant, similar to that of a radioactive isotope,
    and Δt is the time interval from the current date and the time the poll was taken.
    Next step is to Enhance Statistically the results using a model, specifically by
    party identification weighting.
    Besides party identification one should have used other demographics (e. g. gender,
    ideology, age, race, etc.), but that would be too complicated, as would imply to use an
    iterative tenique. I think we all agreethat party identification is the most important
    weighting factor.
    Rasmussen has been quite successful with this model at the national level because he uses a
    large data base; however, at the state level he is not so good because he has a significantly
    smaller number of samples.
    How we can Obviate to Model Errors? The sensible answer is, again,
    to statistically average the party identification provided by the different poll organizations.
    In this way we effectively enlarge the data base.This has the advantage also to narrow
    significantly the dispersion of the results as they are weighted with the same party
    identification for all poll organizations.In practice, when a poll comes out, if there
    are cross tables, AWESOME will be able to providethe results using the statistically
    averaged party identification.
    I will provide two sets of combined poll results. The first is the weighted average, which
    will take into account also polls that do not provide cross tables. The second set of results will
    be the aggregate one using the AWESOME party identification and the statistically averaged
    percent distribution coming from the cross tables. In this way the aggregate results take
    into account only polls that provide internals.
    Finally, there is another way to obviate to model errors. This is done by data assimilation
    using election exit polls as “experimental” information in order to correct any bias the
    pollsters are introducing in their models; however this method is, in this case, more questionable.
    The difficulty resides in the fact that we cannot easily separate the systematic (bias)
    component from the aleatory one in the discrepancy we can observe when comparing the predictive
    results provided by the pollster and the actual exit polls.
    In other words, we compare the party identification provided by the pollster in their final
    polls against the party identification of the exit polls and calculate a correction to be
    applied for future polls.
    Is this correction (bias) systematic? Difficult to say. For instance, if they have changed models
    with respect to the past, this correction should not be applied. If this correction has the same
    sign and about the same magnitude for all past elections, this is an indication that the correction
    is probably systematic. If they have different sign, they tend to cancel out and therefore
    are not systematic.
    I have used, whenever possible, the results and final polls of the last 4 elections
    (2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010) for the limited number of poll organizations that provided
    the information about party identification, but I do not think I have enough significant data.
    In most cases the bias is related to the number of independents. This is likely due to the fact
    that pollsters try to push party identification and exit polls not.
    In any case, because of the questionable assumptions of this method, I will keep for me
    the results that use the bias correction.

  112. AWESOME says:

    #115 Why?

  113. Walt says:

    DRUDGE

    “UPDATE: Military mom breastfeeding advocate fired from civilian job…”
    *********************************

    Why would she be breastfeeding an advocate rather than breastfeeding her child?

  114. AWESOME says:

    Here how AWESOME sees the RAS poll for Michigan.

    AWESOME RESULTS FOR: MICHIGAN PRESIDENT
    DATE: 6/15    POLLING ORGANIZATION: RAS

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    PARTY ID.    37.3%       34.1%       28.6%

    OBAMA        91.0%       10.0%         46.4%               50.6%
    ROMNEY     7.0%    87.0%       34.3%              42.1%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  115. SusyQue says:

    Awesome…what is your first language?

  116. AWESOME says:

    And this the current summary for Michigan.

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: MICHIGAN
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/15

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    PPP         38.0%          28.0%         34.0%         4.4%         8.0%
    EPI         39.0%          37.0%         24.0%         4.0%         46.6%
    RAS         35.4%          32.3%         32.3%         4.5%         45.4%

    AVE.         37.3%          34.1%         28.6%         2.8%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    PPP         5/27         50.9%          41.7%         4.4%         5.7%        
    EPI         6/ 5         44.9%          45.7%         4.0%         33.1%        
    FOS         6/12         46.9%          45.5%         2.3%         28.9%        
    RAS         6/14         50.6%          42.1%         4.5%         32.2%        

    AVE.         6/15        47.6%          44.3%         2.1%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    2.4%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        91.0%       7.0%         40.7%               47.9%
    ROMNEY     5.9%    88.7%       39.4%              43.7%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  117. WV Johnny Appleseed says:

    “…Grow a fuucking pair”
    Comment by JHCOAMFC
    ******************************

    Actually, instead of pears, I prefer apples.

  118. DrJay says:

    Awesome why does FOS have a smaller weight than EPI… it is more recent and with a smaller MoE.

    Is it an adult poll?

  119. GF says:

    Good work, Awesome. If Mitt can swing just 5% of GOPers form Obama back into the fold, he will narrow the gap to 49-44. He needs to do that stat so he can concentrate on the Idy gap he faces in MI.

    The state is in play. No question about it. Lock down FLOHVA (or exchange VA for CO and IA), then send some spare troops to PA and MI. Make the b@st@rds play defense for once.

  120. Waingro says:

    AWESOME “came to play!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_qFmGEd_Bo

    Great stuff so far.

  121. DW says:

    Paladin/CFP POTUS outlook. States sorted top to bottom and left to right in descending order of GOP strength:

    Lock R: (112) OK WY UT ID KY KS AL AR TX AK LA SD MS WV
    Safe R: (44) ND NE SC TN GA
    Likely R: (35) MT AZ IN MO
    Leans R: (44) FL NC
    Wobbly R: (47) OH VA IA WI
    Romney: 282

    Wobbly D: (15) CO NV
    Leans D: (47) MI OR PA NH
    Likely D: (14) ME MN
    Safe D: (93) NM CT CA
    Lock D: (87) IL MA DE MD RI NY VT HI DC
    Obama: 256

  122. AWESOME says:

    #121

    Hello Dolly,

    (I am calling you with your original moniker, because it seems nobody seems to realize that), this is my first and final post addressed to you, and I will explain why. You deeply offended my family. A few months ago, you reported about the increase rate of autistic children and commented to look for women consuming drugs in the streets. My son was diagnosed to be in the autistic spectrum when he was three years old. Now he is 11 doing very well in school, even if he still lacks some social skills. I am comforted by the fact that another HHR contributor with the a similar condition, the freemarketeer from your area in San Diego, has been able to overcome the problem and he is quite successful in life. My wife, besides raising two children, has a juris doctor degree (lawyer) from one of the most prestigious University in South America, a master degree in transportation law from a very prestigious University in France, a master degree from NIU (hi Corey!), and considering a PhD. Meanwhile she helps as an interpreter (Spanish, French, Italian) in an hospital people to recovery from strokes through speech and physical therapy. Do you think she is the type that spends her time consuming drugs in the streets? I let you think about. End of conversation.

  123. AWESOME says:

    #124 Mr. Vito,

    EPI is likely and FOS registered.

  124. GF says:

    *sniffles* Awesome, that was just awesome. Thanks for the shout out. Asperger’s is not easy to overcome. It takes a LOT of hard work and being totally, consistently conscious of everything and everyone around oneself.

  125. GF says:

    That said, Awesome, reveal yourself at once! :-)

  126. DrJay says:

    Ah, yes, hello dolly… it was on the tip of my tongue, but I kept thinking holly, polly, molly…

    Thanks, awesome.

  127. MD says:

    Awesome – what handle did you post under before?

  128. DrJay says:

    #128 I remember her posting that… I am certain I commented on it.

  129. DrJay says:

    (It offended me as well)

  130. MD says:

    GF – you have Asperger’s? Friends of ours have a son who has diagnosed with that. He is light’s out smart in school. Remind you of someone?

    He does have trouble socially but seems to be improving lately. He loves my wife more than anyone in the world. His Mother (one of my wife’s best friends) is perplexed by this. When she tries to find out what is wrong with him on a particular day, he usually just says, “I’ll wait for Aunt G___”. Then he tells her. Whatever works.

  131. Barrett says:

    Man, awesome showed up and nobody invited me

    MF’ers!

  132. AWESOME says:

    Here in the following the summary for the national poll. I think at this point is the most reliable one for the large number of polls and consequently a quite reduced MoE. Notice that for RAS I use the weekly data (only available to platinum members) that have an MoE of only 2%.

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: NATIONAL
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/12

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    MAS         37.0%          32.0%         31.0%         3.0%         16.0%
    IBD         34.0%          29.0%         37.0%         3.5%         5.1%
    ABC         31.7%          21.8%         46.5%         3.5%         3.4%
    NBC         44.0%          36.0%         20.0%         3.1%         4.3%
    RAS         34.0%          35.0%         31.0%         2.0%         65.5%
    IPS         47.0%          38.0%         15.0%         3.4%         5.8%

    AVE.         35.6%          34.0%         30.4%         1.4%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    MAS         5/14         42.3%          48.5%         3.0%         8.1%        
    WTZ         5/14         41.7%          44.6%         3.5%         5.9%        
    FOX         6/ 5         41.9%          43.3%         3.0%         13.1%        
    IBD         6/ 8         44.7%          44.0%         3.5%         2.6%        
    ABC         5/20         49.0%          46.0%         3.5%         1.7%        
    NBC         5/20         49.0%          46.0%         3.1%         2.2%        
    GAL         6/11         46.0%          45.0%         2.0%         8.5%        
    RAS         6/10         46.9%          44.7%         2.0%         33.1%        
    CNN         5/31         48.0%          48.2%         3.5%         2.2%        
    PEW         6/ 3         47.9%          45.6%         2.3%         5.3%        
    MON         6/ 6         44.9%          44.3%         2.9%         14.4%        
    IPS         6/11         45.0%          44.0%         3.4%         2.9%        

    AVE.         6/12        45.3%          44.9%         1.0%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    1.2%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        85.7%       7.1%         39.7%               45.0%
    ROMNEY     8.7%    85.8%       41.4%              44.9%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  133. AWESOME says:

    #133I told you hat I was a lurker.

  134. Bitterlaw says:

    Wow – Awesome posted something longer than WEC and it wasn’t all cut and paste. I’m impressed.

  135. GF says:

    MD, it’s a tough road to hoe, I can tell you that. From what it appears, I am on the edge of the spectru, so i am fortunate. Being raised abroad in a VERY sheltered and old time atmosphere (parents are pre-WWII generation, and mom’s family was from Europe, so even more old school) did not help, probably exacerbated an existing condition that with a normal environment here at home could have been overcome earlier. Even now, I detest most social situations and sit them out on the sidelines if I have to attend some function. Makes work difficult at best, so I simply excel in mmy profession as much as possible so that people leave me alone.

    Off to a meeting; be back in a while.

  136. HHR Poet Police says:

    Roadrunner says:

    June 13, 2012 at 12:54 am

    To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
    Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
    To the last syllable of recorded time;
    And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
    The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
    Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
    That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
    And then is heard no more. It is a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
    Signifying nothing.

    beep beep!
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    But one example of recent poetic postings by persons other than the officially designated HHR Poet Laureate.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Roadrunner and others must make sure that they have applied for and received licenses to post poetry here.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    We also have some copyright attribution infrigement issues with the one example posted above.

  137. Cory says:

    I found Hello Dolly to be exponentially more vile than Susy.

    Susy just seems completely clueless, which leads her to occassionally say some vile things.

    Are they really the same person??

  138. Walt says:

    Who is Awesome?

    Rdlbov?

    Benny?

    ***********************

  139. DrJay says:

    #143 yes

    What BHO (OOO) proposes may sound good to some citizens, but what I see is masked reparations. His intention is to hire 30,000 people and give them government jobs while omitting 30,000 contractors’ jobs. His mentality is still that of a South Side of Chicago community organizer.
    Psalm 109:8, Let his days be few and another take his office and charge. (Acts 1:20)

    Comment by hello dolly — May 17, 2009 @ 9:34 am

  140. DrJay says:

    EPH….wake up…discern the times we are living in. What is your world view? What is your purpose for living?

    Comment by hello dolly — May 17, 2009 @ 10:22 am

    Albert…you tried….but you are not funny. Your chunk of dark humor is not appreciated.

    Comment by hello dolly — May 17, 2009 @ 10:07 pm

  141. HHR Historian says:

    I do not believe that Hello Dolly and Susyque are the same poster. Susyque is a sock and her sockmaster is NOT Hello Dolly.Susy’s puppetmaster already revealed him/herself with a posting blunder. It IS possible that Hello Dolly is also a sock but I don’t think so.

  142. Dr. SoHope says:

    PPP

    would you trust obama to water your plants?

  143. DrJay says:

    No, he would declare amnesty to the weeds and aphids.

  144. AWESOME says:

    I will show you next what is the current situation for electoral votes. Regarding the weights of each state used to calculate the final aggregate national value, I combined the number of voters in 2000, 2004, 2008 and the electoral votes assigned for 2012, that should take into account the census change. For both results and party affiliation, keep in mind that only a limited umber of states have significant polls, so that I used the 2008 results for more than half of the states. This is the reason why there is quite a difference with respect to the national polls.I expect that in the long run they will eventually converge.

  145. AWESOME says:

    #144 Benny is German and I am not.
    Rafael is from Tennessee and I am not.

  146. Cory says:

    #145
    I just can’t imagine Susy understanding the term ‘masked reparations’, let alone using it in a way that actually makes sense.

    I know they are both crazy, and both extremely religious. But, I thought the intelligence scale tipped decidedly in Hello Dolly’s direction… and the ‘Not being a horrible person scale’ tipped decidedly in Susy’s direction.

    Did Hello Dolly create a lame-brained alter-ego, so her hatred and bigotry could be passed off as simple ignorance??? Is SusyQue actually an evil mastermind??! My mind is in the process of being boggled.

    #147 And, if that’s true, then who is Susy’s puppetmaster?

  147. AWESOME says:

    These are the electoral votes using the aggregate AWESOME results.

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS: NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

    NATIONAL PARTY IDENTIFICATION

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.
    PARTY ID.    37.2%       32.5%       26.6%

    STATE RESULTS

    STATE      WEIGHT      OBAMA      ROMNEY      E. V. OBAMA      E. V. ROMNEY

    AL            1.6%           39.0%           61.0%                                                 9
    AK            0.4%           38.0%           60.0%                                                 3
    AZ            1.8%           45.0%           54.0%                                                 11
    AR            0.9%           42.7%           51.4%                                                 6
    CA            10.2%           55.0%           34.6%                   55                              
    CO            1.7%           44.6%           47.7%                                                 9
    CT            1.3%           50.0%           38.0%                   7                              
    DE            0.4%           62.0%           37.0%                   3                              
    DC            0.3%           93.0%           7.0%                   3                              
    FL            6.0%           44.9%           47.3%                                                 29
    GA            2.9%           39.2%           52.8%                                                 16
    HI            0.5%           72.0%           27.0%                   4                              
    ID            0.6%           36.0%           61.0%                                                 4
    IL            4.1%           62.0%           37.0%                   20                              
    IN            2.1%           40.0%           49.0%                                                 11
    IA            1.2%           47.8%           45.1%                   6                              
    KS            1.0%           42.0%           57.0%                                                 6
    KY            1.4%           41.0%           58.0%                                                 8
    LA            1.5%           40.0%           59.0%                                                 8
    ME            0.6%           58.0%           40.0%                   4                              
    MD            1.9%           62.0%           37.0%                   10                              
    MA            2.3%           53.2%           39.3%                   11                              
    MI            3.6%           47.9%           43.7%                   16                              
    MN            2.1%           52.0%           38.4%                   10                              
    MS            1.0%           43.0%           56.0%                                                 6
    MO            2.1%           42.4%           48.4%                                                 10
    MT            0.4%           44.2%           51.4%                                                 3
    NE            0.7%           38.9%           53.0%                                                 5
    NV            0.8%           50.0%           43.6%                   6                              
    NH            0.6%           51.1%           41.1%                   4                              
    NJ            2.8%           52.1%           36.1%                   14                              
    NM            0.7%           52.5%           37.3%                   5                              
    NY            5.7%           57.3%           32.5%                   29                              
    NC            3.0%           44.3%           48.0%                                                 15
    ND            0.4%           39.0%           52.0%                                                 3
    OH            4.1%           45.4%           45.1%                   18                              
    OK            1.2%           27.0%           62.0%                                                 7
    OR            1.4%           46.9%           43.3%                   7                              
    PA            4.3%           47.5%           38.9%                   20                              
    RI            0.5%           63.0%           35.0%                   4                              
    SC            1.5%           45.0%           54.0%                                                 9
    SD            0.4%           45.0%           53.0%                                                 3
    TN            2.0%           42.0%           57.0%                                                 11
    TX            6.4%           42.9%           50.1%                                                 38
    UT            0.9%           34.0%           63.0%                                                 6
    VT            0.4%           68.0%           31.0%                   3                              
    VA            2.6%           47.6%           45.6%                   13                              
    WA            2.3%           50.3%           36.8%                   12                              
    WV            0.7%           43.0%           56.0%                                                 5
    WI            2.2%           46.3%           43.5%                   10                              
    WY            0.3%           33.0%           65.0%                                                 3
    ————————————————————————————————————————

    AGGR.    100.0%          48.2%          44.4%                294                            244

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  148. AWESOME says:

    And these are the electoral votes using the AWESOME averaged results.

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS: NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

    NATIONAL PARTY IDENTIFICATION

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.
    PARTY ID.    37.2%       32.5%       26.6%

    STATE RESULTS

    STATE      WEIGHT      OBAMA      ROMNEY      E. V. OBAMA      E. V. ROMNEY

    AL            1.6%           39.0%           61.0%                                                 9
    AK            0.4%           38.0%           60.0%                                                 3
    AZ            1.8%           45.0%           54.0%                                                 11
    AR            0.9%           42.7%           51.4%                                                 6
    CA            10.2%           55.0%           34.6%                   55                              
    CO            1.7%           45.7%           46.4%                                                 9
    CT            1.3%           50.0%           38.0%                   7                              
    DE            0.4%           62.0%           37.0%                   3                              
    DC            0.3%           93.0%           7.0%                   3                              
    FL            6.0%           45.4%           46.5%                                                 29
    GA            2.9%           39.2%           52.8%                                                 16
    HI            0.5%           72.0%           27.0%                   4                              
    ID            0.6%           36.0%           61.0%                                                 4
    IL            4.1%           62.0%           37.0%                   20                              
    IN            2.1%           40.0%           49.0%                                                 11
    IA            1.2%           46.9%           44.8%                   6                              
    KS            1.0%           42.0%           57.0%                                                 6
    KY            1.4%           41.0%           58.0%                                                 8
    LA            1.5%           40.0%           59.0%                                                 8
    ME            0.6%           58.0%           40.0%                   4                              
    MD            1.9%           62.0%           37.0%                   10                              
    MA            2.3%           53.2%           39.3%                   11                              
    MI            3.6%           47.6%           44.3%                   16                              
    MN            2.1%           52.0%           38.4%                   10                              
    MS            1.0%           43.0%           56.0%                                                 6
    MO            2.1%           42.4%           48.4%                                                 10
    MT            0.4%           44.2%           51.4%                                                 3
    NE            0.7%           38.9%           53.0%                                                 5
    NV            0.8%           49.2%           44.5%                   6                              
    NH            0.6%           51.1%           41.1%                   4                              
    NJ            2.8%           52.1%           36.1%                   14                              
    NM            0.7%           52.5%           37.3%                   5                              
    NY            5.7%           57.3%           32.5%                   29                              
    NC            3.0%           44.3%           48.0%                                                 15
    ND            0.4%           39.0%           52.0%                                                 3
    OH            4.1%           45.7%           44.7%                   18                              
    OK            1.2%           27.0%           62.0%                                                 7
    OR            1.4%           46.9%           43.3%                   7                              
    PA            4.3%           47.5%           38.9%                   20                              
    RI            0.5%           63.0%           35.0%                   4                              
    SC            1.5%           45.0%           54.0%                                                 9
    SD            0.4%           45.0%           53.0%                                                 3
    TN            2.0%           42.0%           57.0%                                                 11
    TX            6.4%           42.9%           50.1%                                                 38
    UT            0.9%           34.0%           63.0%                                                 6
    VT            0.4%           68.0%           31.0%                   3                              
    VA            2.6%           47.5%           45.4%                   13                              
    WA            2.3%           50.3%           36.8%                   12                              
    WV            0.7%           43.0%           56.0%                                                 5
    WI            2.2%           47.6%           43.4%                   10                              
    WY            0.3%           33.0%           65.0%                                                 3
    ————————————————————————————————————————

    AGGR.    100.0%          48.3%          44.3%                294                            244

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  149. lisab says:

    Lindsay Lohan ‘Fine’ After Paramedic Scare
    Early reports say the actress was taken to the hospital, though her publicist tells MTV News she was just taking ‘a nap.’

    Just another day in the life of Lindsay Lohan: On Friday afternoon (June 15), California station KABC broke news that the oft-troubled actress was taken to the hospital after being found unconscious in a Marina del Rey, California, hotel room and that her condition “was currently unknown.”

    According to the report, the Los Angeles County Fire Department responded to a 911 call at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel after Lohan — in Marina del Rey to film the Lifetime Original movie “Liz & Dick” — was found unconscious in the penthouse. KABC ended the story by promising “we will add more details to this report as they become available.”

    Of course, those details might be difficult to come by. Because right around the time KABC’s report was making the rounds, TMZ jumped into the fray, breaking news that, while paramedics did respond to a 911 call at the hotel, Lohan was never taken to the hospital.

    “Paramedics … determined nothing was wrong with Lindsay [and] left without transporting her to the hospital,” the TMZ story said. “Lindsay wasn’t feeling well after complaining of exhaustion. She called someone from the ‘Liz & Dick’ production team early this morning, and the team sent a private doctor to check on her.

    “Before arriving, the doctor called the hotel and asked someone to check on Lindsay,” the report continued. “Someone from the hotel went to her door, ‘checked on her’ and determined she was ‘unresponsive.’ The hotel then called 911.”

    KABC subsequently updated its story to include a comment from Lohan’s attorney, who let it be known that the actress was, in fact, “fine.”

    “As I understand it, she was exhausted after shooting non-stop for two days,” Shawn Holley told the station. “Someone called paramedics, for reasons which are unclear. They determined that she was fine.”

    “She’s OK,” Dina Lohan told the Huffington Post. “She was working through the night and wrapped at 6:15 this morning. She’s home now sleeping. She’s doing a great job.”

  150. SusyQue says:

    #128…I am truly sorry if I offended you by what I said. I too have an autistic child in my family, so I know the heartache mothers have for their challenged children. My cousin adopted a baby who is autistic, about 12 years years ago. She was told the mother was a drug addict while she was carrying the baby. I think we have had this discussion once before. My concern was to alert women that drugs can cause great harm to the unborn child. I believe we had this conversation on HHR and last year. I apologized then for I meant nothing disparaging to women in general. I am a mother and a teacher of many decades. I love children and have had students in my class who were challenged in different ways. Sir, i believe you have taken whatever I said
    very personally and yet you know that I do not know you nor your wife. Will you forgive me for offending you? My prayers for the complete restoration for my counsin’s son named Zac will not stop. I will include your child in my prayers.

  151. DrJay says:

    There have to be at least ten things in those three posts that reveal hello dolly and susyque to be the same.

    They are the same person… both could be socks of the same person.

  152. DrJay says:

    And the fact that she answered 128 with no objection is the definitive answer.

  153. Cory says:

    Circumstantial evidence is definitely piling up…

    Susy, did you used to post as ‘Hello Dolly’?

  154. DW says:

    So that mystery is solved. Who then is Transparent Dem Troll and who is Cowboy Poet?

  155. SusyQue says:

    #157…DrJay….please stop. My heart is very heavy that I was so misunderstood and caused anguish to another. I have asked to be forgiven for
    causing him emotional pain.

  156. AWESOME says:

    I will post the current summaries for some battleground states: Fl, Va, Oh, Co, Ia. If you are interested in any other state, let me know and I will post it.

  157. Cory says:

    NV and NH, if you’re taking requests.

  158. AWESOME says:

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: FLORIDA
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/ 9

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    RAS         32.7%          32.7%         34.6%         4.5%         16.3%
    SUF         40.8%          36.7%         22.5%         4.1%         27.1%
    QUI         31.0%          34.0%         35.0%         2.4%         26.7%
    MAR         43.4%          35.4%         21.2%         3.0%         16.7%
    PPP         41.0%          40.0%         19.0%         3.9%         13.3%

    AVE.         37.3%          35.5%         27.1%         1.6%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    FOX         4/17         40.3%          46.8%         4.0%         2.7%        
    RAS         4/25         46.1%          45.7%         4.5%         10.3%        
    PUR         6/ 5         44.5%          49.0%         4.0%         33.7%        
    SUF         5/ 8         45.8%          45.0%         4.1%         17.2%        
    QUI         5/21         43.2%          45.7%         2.4%         16.9%        
    MAR         5/20         48.0%          44.0%         3.0%         10.6%        
    PPP         6/ 3         50.1%          45.6%         3.9%         8.5%        

    AVE.         6/ 9        45.4%          46.5%         1.7%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    1.7%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        83.8%       10.2%         36.8%               44.9%
    ROMNEY     10.1%    85.1%       48.9%              47.3%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  159. DrJay says:

    #161 I am not trying to harass you, Susy. I am just trying to establish whether that was your old handle… if you do not wish to discuss it, then I will not bring it up again.

  160. AWESOME says:

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: VIRGINIA
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/ 9

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    ROA         30.0%          33.0%         37.0%         4.0%         3.4%
    RAS         33.0%          35.0%         32.0%         4.5%         41.7%
    PPP         39.0%          32.0%         29.0%         3.8%         6.5%
    MAR         30.7%          28.7%         40.6%         3.0%         17.4%
    QUI         31.0%          28.0%         41.0%         2.7%         31.0%

    AVE.         32.3%          31.5%         36.3%         2.1%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    ROA         4/ 5         40.0%          46.0%         4.0%         2.1%        
    PUR         6/ 5         47.3%          46.8%         4.0%         34.2%        
    RAS         6/ 3         47.6%          45.9%         4.5%         25.8%        
    PPP         4/29         48.5%          44.7%         3.8%         4.0%        
    WAP         5/ 2         51.3%          44.5%         4.0%         4.0%        
    MAR         5/20         48.0%          44.0%         3.0%         10.7%        
    QUI         6/ 6         47.2%          43.3%         2.7%         19.2%        

    AVE.         6/ 9        47.5%          45.4%         1.9%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    2.0%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        92.8%       10.6%         39.5%               47.6%
    ROMNEY     4.0%    86.1%       47.4%              45.6%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  161. lisab says:

    do you guys remember marrianne faithful, Bitterlaw’s old lover/girlfriend?

    well, she has been sliding since her Bitteraw days

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2159808/Shocking-images-reveal-time-took-toll-swinging-sixties-sweetheart-Marianne-Faithfull.html

  162. AWESOME says:

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: OHIO
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/ 9

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    PPP         41.0%          39.0%         20.0%         3.3%         13.2%
    QUI         31.3%          29.3%         39.4%         3.0%         16.4%
    MAR         37.0%          28.0%         35.0%         3.0%         22.1%
    RAS         34.0%          31.0%         35.0%         4.5%         48.3%

    AVE.         35.1%          31.1%         33.7%         2.4%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    FOX         4/17         45.4%          37.5%         4.0%         3.2%        
    PUR         6/ 5         44.7%          46.8%         4.0%         39.9%        
    PPP         5/ 6         49.5%          41.5%         3.3%         7.5%        
    QUI         5/ 7         46.5%          42.9%         3.0%         9.3%        
    MAR         5/20         48.0%          42.0%         3.0%         12.6%        
    RAS         5/29         44.9%          45.2%         4.5%         27.5%        

    AVE.         6/ 9        45.7%          44.7%         2.1%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    2.2%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        84.2%       7.0%         40.3%               45.4%
    ROMNEY     10.3%    86.6%       43.1%              45.1%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  163. AWESOME says:

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: COLORADO
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/ 9

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    MAR         31.0%          35.0%         34.0%         3.0%         29.0%
    RAS         27.0%          32.0%         41.0%         4.4%         71.0%

    AVE.         28.2%          32.9%         39.0%         3.2%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    PUR         6/ 5         44.8%          49.6%         4.0%         33.7%        
    PNA         5/24         48.0%          44.0%         4.0%         26.1%        
    MAR         5/24         46.0%          45.0%         3.0%         11.6%        
    RAS         6/ 6         44.4%          45.3%         4.4%         28.5%        

    AVE.         6/ 9        45.7%          46.4%         2.1%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    2.7%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        84.5%       9.8%         45.2%               44.6%
    ROMNEY     12.0%    84.7%       42.1%              47.7%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  164. AWESOME says:

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: IOWA
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/12

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    PPP         36.0%          37.0%         27.0%         2.9%         16.8%
    MAR         33.7%          34.6%         31.7%         3.0%         22.9%
    RAS         28.0%          33.0%         39.0%         4.5%         60.3%

    AVE.         30.6%          34.0%         35.3%         2.8%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    PPP         5/ 6         50.4%          41.7%         2.9%         16.8%        
    MAR         5/24         44.0%          44.0%         3.0%         22.9%        
    RAS         6/11         47.0%          46.0%         4.5%         60.3%        

    AVE.         6/12        46.9%          44.8%         2.8%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    2.8%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        92.7%       9.4%         45.7%               47.8%
    ROMNEY     5.6%    85.3%       40.6%              45.1%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  165. MFG says:

    Where to begin?

    The aggregation of data is absurd (April results?) there is no allocation of undecideds the combination of different polls using different methods is ridiculous plus some pollsters are intentionally falsifying data sets (ppp)

    GIGO writ large says I

  166. AWESOME says:

    As requested:

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: NEVADA
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/13

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    PPP         40.4%          38.4%         21.2%         4.4%         25.2%
    RAS         41.0%          35.0%         24.0%         4.5%         37.4%
    MAR         40.0%          38.0%         22.0%         3.0%         37.4%

    AVE.         40.5%          37.0%         22.5%         2.3%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    PPP         6/10         48.1%          41.7%         4.4%         25.2%        
    RAS         4/30         51.2%          44.9%         4.5%         37.4%        
    MAR         5/24         48.0%          46.0%         3.0%         37.4%        

    AVE.         6/13        49.2%          44.5%         2.3%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    2.3%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        87.8%       11.7%         44.8%               50.0%
    ROMNEY     9.4%    83.4%       39.8%              43.6%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  167. bio mom says:

    Romney is getting criticized on the right on some blogs for essentially backing Rubio in his statement about the Obama ploy this morning.

  168. AWESOME says:

    #171

    MFG,

    you noticed that the weight takes into account the date, so that it has “decayed”. What you mean by “different methods”? If PPP is falsifying this will eventually appear as an outlier in the statistical combination.

  169. DW says:

    No disrespect to AWESOME, but Paladin/CFP’s state chart is simple, easy to read, and it is based on current polling, but without any influence of PPP(D) polls. Our rankings are also based on a calculation of poll averages taking into account trends and unique factors that affect the states. This keeps us a step ahead.

    Lock R: (112) OK WY UT ID KY KS AL AR TX AK LA SD MS WV
    Safe R: (44) ND NE SC TN GA
    Likely R: (35) MT AZ IN MO
    Leans R: (44) FL NC
    Wobbly R: (47) OH VA IA WI
    Romney: 282

    Wobbly D: (15) CO NV
    Leans D: (47) MI OR PA NH
    Likely D: (14) ME MN
    Safe D: (93) NM CT CA
    Lock D: (87) IL MA DE MD RI NY VT HI DC
    Obama: 256

  170. Dr. SoHope says:

    Obama hopes that his immigration meddling places a wedge between rubio and the rest of the gop. He is afraid of him.

  171. AWESOME says:

    Final one for Cory, but it is not so “fresh”.

    AWESOME SUMMARY FOR: NEW HAMPSHIRE
    PRESIDENT ELECTION         DATE: 6/ 2

    AWESOME PARTY AFFILIATION

    WHO         DEM.          REP.           IND.          MoE        WEIGHT

    DAR         27.2%          34.7%         38.1%         4.9%         6.5%
    PPP         34.0%          31.0%         35.0%         2.9%         46.8%
    UNH         44.2%          37.7%         18.1%         4.4%         46.7%

    AVE.         38.3%          34.4%         27.3%         2.5%         100.0%

    AWESOME AVERAGED RESULTS

    WHO      DATE    OBAMA     ROMNEY        MoE       WEIGHT

    DAR         4/ 4         46.8%          40.2%         4.9%         6.5%        
    PPP         5/13         53.8%          40.7%         2.9%         46.8%        
    UNH         4/20         49.0%          41.5%         4.4%         46.7%        

    AVE.         6/ 2        51.1%          41.1%         2.5%         100.0%        

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS    MoE    2.5%

                         DEM.        REP.          IND.             RESULTS

    OBAMA        91.6%       10.7%         45.1%               51.1%
    ROMNEY     6.1%    83.2%       37.2%              41.1%

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  172. lisab says:

    awsome,

    unfortunately you are too late

    the poster addisonst has already predicted obama will lose

  173. MFG says:

    Every poll has a different methodology they cannot be combined in this fashion; ppp is intentionally falsifying data sets which has to be clear to everyone by now; april results cannot possibly mean anything in mid june

  174. SusyQue says:

    #173…bio mom…could this amnesty announcement
    today be the “October surprise?”

  175. lisab says:

    btw

    since 70% of all ILLEGAL ALIENS are under 30

    today’s obama message is 70% amnesty

  176. MFG says:

    Romney has come on like a freight train in the last ten days it is absurd to have him getting blown out in nh

  177. Dr. SoHope (channeling my inner-SSQ) says:

    The intimate dinner banked about $2 million, with 50 people paying $40,000 each. …

    Speaking in a dimly lighted, art-filled room, Obama told supporters they would play a critical role in an election that would determine a vision for the nation’s future.

    “You’re the tie-breaker,” he said. “You’re the ultimate arbiter of which direction this country goes.”

    Among the celebrities on hand to hear Obama’s remarks were Oscar winner Meryl Streep, fashion designer Michael Kors and Vogue editor Anna Wintour…

    The president and Mrs. Obama also headlined a second glitzy fundraiser in Manhattan Thursday night that included a performance from singer Mariah Carey and remarks by singer Alicia Keys. The 250-person dinner yielded the Obama campaign at least $2.5 million.

    Let me be clear.

    ar·bi·ter
    [ahr-bi-ter] noun

    1. a person empowered to decide matters at issue; judge; umpire.
    2. a person who has the sole or absolute power of judging or determining.

  178. lisab says:

    NH is one of the whitest states in the country

    obama is slightly ahead at best

    especially after today

  179. AWESOME says:

    #175

    Darrel,

    as I said, I am not an expert in American politics. What I do is to use only hard numbers, possibly in the most objective way.

  180. MFG says:

    You want to do something like this pick five accurate pollsters with a good reputation use nothing but likely voters and you may hacve a useful tool using ppp is like calling the dnc for its opinion

  181. DrJay says:

    Awesome, I am always a fan of another polling estimate… someone can always decide for themselves to what degree they will accept your estimate.

  182. EML says:

    Searching the HHR archives, the most frequent users of the word ‘obviate’ are Wes and Gary Maxwell.

  183. AWESOME says:

    #179
    MFG,

    still I do not understand your comment about not combining polls that have different methodologies. Do they provide independent results? If yes, I can combine them statistically. I have already answered your comment about PPP. Regarding the April results think about the weighting, I will give you something to grasp how much it is. A two months old Poll, when using a decay constant of ln2/30(days) gives a factor 4 that is a multiplier for the MoE. The statistical weight is proportional to the square of the inverse of the MoE. In the end i weights a factor 16 less than a poll taken today. Is it not enough?

  184. SusyQue says:

    #189…Who do you think will win the 2012 presidential election?

  185. Addisonst says:

    Battered by a once-again slackening economic recovery, Democrats of late have publicly betrayed their concerns about President Obama. That criticism reached a fever pitch Thursday, when Rep. Mark Critz, D-Pa., issued an unsolicited rebuke to the White House moments after the president’s high-profile economic speech ended.
    “President Obama and others in Washington need to realize that we cannot spend our way to prosperity and that to in order to create jobs,” Critz, who represents much of the late John Murtha’s district around the Western Pennsylvania town of Johnstown. “We need to address unfair trade deals that ship jobs overseas and enact policies that allow us to take advantage of our vast natural resources such as coal and natural gas in a safe and responsible manner which will lower energy costs and create jobs and approving the Keystone XL Pipeline would be a good first step.”

    The Crats are leaving the sinking ship!!!!

  186. AWESOME says:

    #187

    DrJay,

    yes, I am not saying that I am better than others, and, for sure, I will accept constructive critics for improving the methodology. I am not expecting people to like the AWESOME results. They are what they are.

  187. AWESOME says:

    #188

    EML,

    I already said that English is not my mother language. I take your comment as a compliment. Thanks.

  188. MFG says:

    My suggestion was in my number 186 above

  189. Dr. SoHope says:

    http://youtu.be/7zeGQdkqduY

    Romney’s latest ad is awesome!

  190. lisab says:

    “Battered by a once-again slackening economic recovery”

    but … but … you said your bankers said the economy is expanding?

    is the economy no longer expanding?

  191. Dr. SoHope says:

    Is awesome = benny?

  192. MFG says:

    Sounds like him

  193. MFG says:

    Even kudlow is saying global recession and kudlow could rah rah the hindenberg

  194. AWESOME says:

    #194

    MFG,

    how do you establish good reputation? From the statistical point of view lower the MoE better the “reputation” :-). Regarding PPP, I do not discriminate and I consider also (R) pollsters. Hopefully, if they are skewed, they will compensate.

  195. lisab says:

    “From the statistical point of view lower the MoE better the “reputation””

    that is silly

  196. AWESOME says:

    #197, 198

    See #151.

  197. Addisonst says:

    Mfg,

    I bought some cheap assed s&p puts today out of the money. No different than putting 25 bucks on the roulette table. We’ll see if greece is a disaster for the markets.

    Did the same on wellpoint calls. Figure they get a pop when Scotus nooks HCR next week. Again it’s pin money

  198. MFG says:

    Reputation = accuracy over time

    Ppp is clearly falsifying data

    Also if you’re going to project electoral votes you must allocate undecideds

  199. SusyQue says:

    #195..soHope…yes, it’s a great AD!

  200. Dr. SoHope says:

    eeeewwww….french.

  201. AWESOME says:

    #201

    Sorry but the sarcasm did not go through.

  202. MFG says:

    I took a small short position yesterday add closed it out with a small loss today then at market close took another small short position

    Well see what happens…

  203. AWESOME says:

    #204

    What would you suggest as an objective algorithm for allocating undecided?

  204. Cory says:

    MFG, you think #189 sounds like Benny?
    Are you MF’ING kidding me?

  205. lisab says:

    “Sorry but the sarcasm did not go through.”

    it is not sarcasm. you are simply incorrect to say,

    “From the statistical point of view lower the MoE better the “reputation””
    ———————————–

    if a pollster sampled every land line telephone number in NH, i.e. not cell phone, they would have a very small standard deviation

    but they still would have a bad sample.

    ———————————–

    the ONLY two things that matter in a poll is the size of the sample AND the sampling frame … i.e. the rules that determine their sample

  206. MFG says:

    His English is somewhat in the style of a person whose native language is german

  207. MFG says:

    Well awesome you have me there I don’t know how undecideds could be allocated but I think you need to do this if you are going to allocate electoral votes based on polling results

  208. Dr. SoHope says:

    lisab is right…and she basically has a masters in statistics

  209. AWESOME says:

    #211

    Lisab,

    you are correct in your observation.

  210. MFG says:

    Maybe Dutch maybe Danish…

  211. AWESOME says:

    #212

    MFG,

    believe me: I wish I could speak German but I don’t.

  212. lisab says:

    “she basically has a masters in statistics”

    correction, empirical statistics

  213. Dr. SoHope says:

    217, If Ron Paul had been president during WWII you would have gotten your wish.

  214. MFG says:

    What os your native language?

  215. AWESOME says:

    #214

    Dr. SoHope,

    I have already said that I am not a professional statistician.

  216. AWESOME says:

    #220

    Italian.

  217. lisab says:

    “I have already said that I am not a professional statistician.”

    doing a meta-analysis of polling is not an exact science

    your guess is as good as anyone’s i suppose

  218. Addisonst says:

    Well Kommie Kory is in the house.

    Kommie Kory, just as I supported the Potus on his standing up for gay marriage, I applaud him on his clearly non politcal move on amnesty.

    Let us hope he continues by fighting for union rights, against guns and supporting Holder.

    I think he’s in great shape for November. Don’t you?

    To put him in landslide category he needs a strong statement saying affirmative now affirmative action forever.

  219. lisab says:

    however, MFG claims that the

    PPP poll is biased

    to the point of perhaps being made up

  220. AWESOME says:

    # 223

    You are again correct. Look at my disclaimer.

  221. MFG says:

    Ive been too critical your methodology is an interesting start

    I hope you refine it and keep us updated on the results

  222. AWESOME says:

    #225

    Lisab,

    if that can and it is demonstrated, I will discard them.

  223. Ben Romney says:

    believe me its not me

  224. DrJay says:

    Actually there is a third thing that matters in a poll and that is the results themselves… results nearer the center of a random sample have less confidence.

    If you know your sample is random, and you have a large sample, a result of 80-20% has a smaller confidence interval than 52-48%.

  225. bio mom says:

    176

    Yes. A lot of this is all about Rubio. He has his book coming out Monday and his own immigration legislation was gaining popularity in Congress.

  226. lisab says:

    ” Look at my disclaimer.”

    i saw it

    i think your opinion is ok

    however, i suggest that perhaps your NH numbers are a little too pro-obama.

    i could be wrong, but i live in massachusetts and imo NH is not as pro-obama as your analysis makes it

    i have no opinion on your other states

  227. AWESOME says:

    #227

    MFG,

    as I said, I am open to anything that can improve it. So let’s ask the HHR community: what can be an objective algorithm (please, forget your party sympathy) for assigning the undecided?
    If you can come up with something that can be considered valid, I will implement it in my coding.

  228. lisab says:

    “results nearer the center of a random sample have less confidence.”

    interesting point

    and a forth thing would be the underlying distribution …

    however, i think it is fair to say these samples are:

    a.) not random
    b.) not stationary, or even close to stationary
    c.) not far from 50-50
    d.) and not normal

  229. bio mom says:

    180.

    Suzy, it was all about Rubio and the failure of his economic speech yesterday. Otherwise it could have been an October surprise. But he still has other panders to play in October and he surely is looking for dirt on Romney.

  230. AWESOME says:

    #232

    Lisab,

    I do not fudge the numbers, but I use what it is given. The polls in New Hampshire are old. I am pretty sure that new ones will give a better understanding of what’s going on there.

  231. MFG says:

    If I were going to do this I would weight pollsters by reliability and only include the top six or seven pollsters in my results and then weight by reliability (as exemplified by accuracy in past cycles) and time

  232. AWESOME says:

    #234

    Lisab,

    If your points a) and d) are true, then AWESOME is just trash :-).

  233. SusyQue says:

    #235…Hopefully, the gop and congress will rise up put a stop to his plans. He seems to think he is president, legislator and judge.
    He gets away with too much!

  234. MFG says:

    Well an assumption has to be made…

    Historically undecideds break 2-1 for the challenger so perhaps we allocate 58% of the undecided to the challenger (the midpoint between 66% and 50%)

  235. AWESOME says:

    #240

    MFG,

    what about Nevada senate in 2010?

  236. MFG says:

    Weight by reliability and time then assign 58% of the undecideds to the challenger…

  237. MFG says:

    True

    Also Bush in 2004 split undecideds as an incumbent

  238. lisab says:

    Awesome,

    we know the samples are not from a normally distributed population, they cannot be — a vote is either pro-obama or pro-romney. they are not even binomial, because sometimes they report undecideds — so at best the polls are multi-nomial.

    also, we know the samples are not random. each polling group has a different sampling method, largely based on trying to pick out registered voters vs. likely voters vs. adults.

    also, most of the polling is done by telephone. that is certainly not random sampling.
    ——————————-

    real world data collection is very different from textbooks.

  239. AWESOME says:

    Ok, I think I have swamped you with enough numbers today. MFG gave me something to think about on how to split undecided. Meanwhile, if someone has a better suggestion about this,let me know. Have a good night.

  240. MFG says:

    Keep us posted as to how this evolves…

  241. AWESOME says:

    #244

    Or nuclear data, the ones I am used to. In any case, this is for fun. We will see how AWESOME does perform.

  242. Justis M. says:

    for assigning the undecided?

    undecideds will break heavily against the President

  243. lisab says:

    just to give you an idea of how PPP could fudge the numbers very plausibly

    ———————————–

    let’s say that 10% of the vote in 2008 came from predominantly black neighborhoods — just for example purposes.

    i could reasonably say that 10% of my sample should therefore come from black neighborhoods this time in 2010.

    however, that assumes

    a.) that obama will get out the same number of black voters (somewhat likely)

    b.) they will vote for him at the same rates (likely)

    c.) 90% of the voters will come from non-black neighborhoods in 2010 (somewhat unlikely)

    ———————————-

    it is quite likely that MORE non-blacks will vote in this election than last election (percentage-wise), either because of lower black turnout or higher white turnout than in 2008

    and

    more whites will vote for romney than voted for mccain (percentage-wise)

    ———————————

    thus PPP could easily skew their polls if they wanted

  244. DrJay says:

    “Although she offered no insight into the tightly held decisions of her colleagues, [Ruth Bader] Ginsburg did indicate that many of the court’s decisions over the next two weeks — which are also expected to include an FCC indecency ruling — might be close.

    The 21 remaining decisions, she said, were “many of the most controversial cases” that the court reviewed this term.

    “It is likely that the sharp disagreement rate will go up next week and the week after,” she said.”

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77479.html

  245. lisab says:

    so the court is likely to rule 5-4 on obamacare and arizona

  246. bio mom says:

    Many on the right are once again threatening to stay home because Romney did not call the immigration pronouncement unconstitutional . Unfortunately it is not! He did not use an executive order he just is having the Homeland Security dept. show prosecutorial discretion. Romney cannot yell about things that are not true. He is not a blogger!

  247. lisab says:

    it is a murky question

    can the executive branch refuse to implement a congressional law?

    it is a moo point though, because the democrats in congress will support obama no matter what he does. he could order the usa to start collecting guns from dangerous elements known as the white middle class, and the dems would support him.

  248. lisab says:

    “Many on the right are once again threatening to stay home because Romney did not call the immigration pronouncement unconstitutional . ”

    just tell them to wait until obama is in his second term and has appointed two or three more judges on scotus

    and then they will see what obama will do.

  249. SusyQue says:

    #254…bio mom…their response is just a knee-jerk reaction. Their threats will hurt them and all who want ooo gone. Executive order should not be used politically. Maybe it needs restrictions. As you so often say…relax…ooo
    thinks he is king again.

  250. mnw says:

    Who’s the new lefty thread hog/sitepest?

    Chek on speed?

  251. addisonst says:

    President Barack Obama issued an executive order that bars the US Open golf tournament from deporting foreign golfers who miss the cut. “These players should not be punished merely because they had to travel on a long flight. American golfers have an unfair advantage with no jetlag. Jetlag leads to inferior ballstriking. That is not an America we want.”

  252. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw – I skipped AWESOME’s crap faster than SusyQue and WEC’s posts.

  253. SusyQue says:

    #260…Thanks Bitter…that’s all I need today.
    Even SusyQue needs a pleasant word now and then.

  254. Bitterlaw says:

    OK, Hello Dolly.

  255. Bitterlaw says:

    I didn’t really follow the SusyQue/Hello Dolly discussion. This ispretty damning evidence to confirm the relationship:

    Yes, the scripture tells us plainly how the Almighty views homosexuality. We respect homosexuals by showing everyone common courtesy. That does not mean we compromise our scriptural values. As believers, we must honor the Almighty and his Word, first. Every homosexual person was created by the sexual union of a man and a woman. The very essence of government is the family. It is the foundation of sound government. Each generation is created through the marriage union of a man and a woman. From this union the Almighty wants godly children. (Malachi 2:15) Blessings follow those who follow
    the Word of the Lord.

    Comment by hello dolly — May 8, 2009 @ 11:55 am

  256. addisonst says:

    Wasn’t hello dolly smarter but crazier?

  257. Michael Keller Ditka says:

    People who live in the past are cowards and losers.

  258. Pitchaboy says:

    Romney needs to be clear that whole there may be merit to Obamas proclamation today it is blatantly unconstitutional

  259. addisonst says:

    Doubt that happens Pitch. They are baiting Mitt so they can paint him as sheriff joe. He will probably team up w Rubio for a gop dream act.

  260. Bitterlaw says:

    Is that a mini-Ditka or a regular-sized Ditka?

  261. SusyQue says:

    #266…Where in the constitution is what ooo did wrong? Is it congresses job to control who is declared legal or illegal?

  262. bio mom says:

    I believe Obama cleverly avoided the constitutional issue by not saying they were not here legally but by allowing their cases to be subject to prosecutorial discretion. Yes, it is an abuse of power but I think he covered himself legally. We need to solve this problem at the ballot box and vote him out.

  263. EML says:

    Interesting developments on HHR today. Awesome shows up and outs susyque as hello dolly, but hides his own identity. Does awesome = bonncaruso?

  264. lisab says:

    ” Is it congresses job to control who is declared legal or illegal?”

    yes, the congress is the branch that wrote the laws regarding who can be here. the ILLEGALS have broken the law.

    and obama is refusing to enforce the law

    unfortunately the democrats in congress will not force the president to enforce the law.

    —————————

    and that is very bad because it means that the president can ignore any law he dislikes.

  265. Bitterlaw says:

    bio – it depends upon the statutory language. It’s the battle of shall vs may.Shall means you must be deported. may means you can be deported.

  266. SusyQue says:

    #271…outing hello dolly….please…I have a right to be whomever I want to be on any blog. there is no outing…I have never written anything
    shameful or awful to be ashamed of; it’s like changing your password now and then. I am no longer hello dolly.

  267. addisonst says:

    Wes had said the hall monitor was hello dolly. I don’t know but I don’t remember hello dolly being as insipid as the hall monitor.

  268. lisab says:

    if exxon dumps oil into the gulf of mexico

    will they be subject to

    “prosecutorial discretion”?

  269. Diogenes says:

    Amnesty and citizenship should only be rewards for truly outstanding behavior. Going to college and getting a useless chicano studies degree while sucking up student loan resources for better-deserving students should not be one of them.

    Military service where life and limb are at stake is clearly one area deserving of citizenship status.

    At any rate, Obama is an idiot panderer. Week after week he goes after stupid micro-issues designed to help him win re-election rather than dealing with the nation’s problems. He’s every bit the closeted liberal bigot that we all knew him to be in 2008.

  270. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes outed Hello Dolly and then disappeared. Coincidence?

  271. SusyQue says:

    Doesn’t a president swear to uphold the constitution. If he doesn’t can’t he be impeached.
    He should be stopped in some way or we are
    destroying our own republic. Are we not a government of laws and law abiding citizens?!?

  272. lisab says:

    “Military service where life and limb are at stake is clearly one area deserving of citizenship status.”

    you cannot join the usa armed services if you are an ILLEGAL ALIEN

  273. addisonst says:

    Today was another bad day for s4b politically. No reason for mitt to take a contra position. Besides he isn’t going to undo it. He will be busy w bigger fish.

  274. lisab says:

    “If he doesn’t can’t he be impeached.”

    he can only be impeached if the dems think not upholding the law is a crime

  275. addisonst says:

    Yes he’s going to be impeached 5 months before the election. And then will romney be impeached when he doesn’t reeverse the order?

  276. lisab says:

    fortunately in many places it went over like a lead balloon

    in massachusetts obama is getting hammered

    if you or a family member are without a job and have a mortgage with children in college

    and the president just said, “anyone in the world can come here and get welfare and food stamps” paid for by the working people of the usa

    you would be upset too

  277. bio mom says:

    Wait unil he agrees to send money to help bailout Greece! They are thinking about it.

  278. SusyQue says:

    #278…Bitter…you are right. This is the second time that “the person” who called me out for offending his family. Nothing was addressed to his family in anyway. He took it very personally and I apologized then because I didn’t want him to think I would speak unkindly about his family whom I do not know at all. Today, he brought it forth again. I don’t know his moniker. Dave is the one who told Wes my blog name.

  279. lisab says:

    “Wait unil he agrees to send money to help bailout Greece!”

    that would be very unpopular

    but actually in our best interests

  280. SusyQue says:

    #284…Good point lisab…! That’s just what he is doing.

  281. SusyQue says:

    Bitter…do you think it had anything to do with what I said about forgiving Polarus this morning?

  282. addisonst says:

    Wtg Bitter. Now the hall monitor is posting on that nonsense on top of her usual claptrap. Thanks muchly

  283. addisonst says:

    Um other than our imf bribes we are not funding greece. The imf payments aren’t going away either. They should have already been cut by the house. I hope boehner gets jettisoned and replaced w Cantor.

  284. Bitterlaw says:

    Add – she’s just talking to herself. We’re better off that way.

  285. lisab says:

    “I hope boehner gets jettisoned and replaced w Cantor.”

    is that your prediction? :)

  286. addisonst says:

    Bitter she’s talking to herself twice as much.

  287. SusyQue says:

    Drudge:
    OBAMACARE RULING: SUPREMES ‘SHARP’ DISAGREEMENT

  288. lisab says:

    “OBAMACARE RULING: SUPREMES ‘SHARP’ DISAGREEMENT”

    if the decision was 5-4 in favor i doubt she would describe it that way

    it is possible, but i think if she thought it was going to be upheld she would say there was agreement

  289. addisonst says:

    So now we are bailing out greece with a slush fund? Good thing holder is around to investigate. Ok bitter here’s sa toughie. More insipid holder or hall moniotor?

  290. DW says:

    295…that’s good news. I would be worried if they had reached consensus and agreement on the ruling.

  291. HoistTheColours! says:

    Susy,

    Don’t let the turkeys get ya down. They only attack you (and even I have been guilty of an unkind jab or two) because you shine the light of the truth of the lord on their immoral behavior.

    We are all sinners. The Lord knows this, forgives us, and loves us anyway.

    The surest way to earn dislike is to force someone to look at themselves. You do this. Others don’t like it, but I do appreciate it.

  292. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    How did you all like our brand-new troll AWESOME? Pretty sly strategy.

  293. janz says:

    Look, probably shouldn’t get involved in this blog’s twists and turns…however…it seems to me that many people here use different names for a variety of reasons. So, why it is such an earth-shaker to have it revealed that SusyQue used another moniker at some time or other?

  294. addisonst says:

    Not an issue to me Janz. I just want her to stop her let’s convert everybody to her religion crap.

  295. SusyQue says:

    #299…How kind of you to say that to me. I appreciate your comforting words. Thanks!

    Do you think Romney will win this election? I am believing he will.

  296. Brandon says:

    A couple vacations coming up for me so probably a 2 week hiatus for me. Just so you know I’m not dead.

  297. HoistTheColours! says:

    Susy,

    Yes, I think Romney will win. He’s running a very strong campaign.

    I’ll be happy with his judicial picks, but that’s about it.

  298. Phil says:

    His judicial picks are a pretty damn big deal.

  299. SusyQue says:

    Janz…we all read the posts we want to read and we skip the ones that don’t appeal to us. (some on HHR don’t “get” it) I appreciate the posts from all the gals on HHR. Lots of good information. #302 is in denial. (:-)

  300. Bitterlaw says:

    When your only ally is Jul . . . forget it. Good evening, Jul.

  301. SusyQue says:

    #300…do you really think he is “new?”

  302. HoistTheColours! says:

    Phil,

    I agree. He’ll also reverse the Kenyan Candidate’s foreign policy of restoring the Caliphate to bring about the destruction of Israel to cause the return of the 12 Imam (or, in Christian terms, the Anti Christ)

  303. addisonst says:

    That’s my other big thing w hall monitor. She brings gender into everything. Liberal style. Pathetic.

  304. HoistTheColours! says:

    Bitter,

    That took you longer than I thought it would. I almost said it myself just to save you the key swipes.

  305. michael corleone says:

    It’s time to draw up articles of impeachment against Obama. We cannot allow a precedent to stand where an Executive ignores laws he doesn’t like, or rewrites laws through enforcement. There are at least 3 recent examples – ranging from the momentous to the minor:

    1. Today’s decision to institute the DREAM Act by fiat

    2. His decision to “recess appoint” officials even when the Senate was not in recess….in fact, during that “recess” the Congress passed his payroll tax cut

    3. Changing the date on the enforcement of certain student loan provisions to benefit students. The provision reduced payments owed under a certain repayment plan. The law was scheduled to go into force in 2014; he decided to make it effective in 2012.

    4. DOMA – He refuses to enforce — that said, at least this is a constitutional objection, in which withholding enforcement power is arguably kosher.

  306. HoistTheColours! says:

    Add,

    Don’t be so sensitive. She’s not hurting anyone by evangelizing.

    Personally, I’m a Christian but I don’t believe Jews, Hindus, Wiccans, Buddists, or mainstream Muslims (etc…) are going to hell.

    If she said “convert or I’ll kill you”, then you’d have a point.

  307. janz says:

    #304 Brandon

    Enjoy your vacation time, away from politics and teaching!

  308. addisonst says:

    Jul I’m not that sensitive. If you want to tell me that your guy is the guy and shove it down my throat, then I tell you that he’s a carnival barker conman with nary a clue and that you pray to a pagan.

  309. Walt says:

    #166 (VIRGINIA)

    AWESOME AGGREGATE RESULTS MoE 2.0%

    DEM. REP. IND. RESULTS

    OBAMA 92.8% 10.6% 39.5% 47.6%
    ROMNEY 4.0% 86.1% 47.4% 45.6%
    *********************************************

    So according to the numbers, only 4% of Dems vote for Romney in VA?
    *************************************************
    Am I reading this right?

  310. Bitterlaw says:

    Jul – SusyQue has turned me people here against religion than she has converted. Actually, she has converted nobody. Even our Evangelicals have asked her to stop,

  311. HoistTheColours! says:

    One of our “Evangelicals” is a creepy old perv with issues who stalks pretty 20 somethings on Facebook and makes them feel uncomfortable.

  312. jason says:

    Number one: SusyQue is a moron.

    Everything else is a direct result of number one.

  313. addisonst says:

    Jul its not stalking its persistence

  314. Bitterlaw says:

    It’s better than stalking unattractive 20 somethings.

  315. sir Albert says:

    I agree w lisab. This went over like a lead balloon.

  316. HoistTheColours! says:

    Goodnight, HHR. I’m in far too harmonious a frame of mind to let the A-holes ruin in.

    Susy,

    Stay in the light. You have your faith and family. You don’t need anything else. Be well, and God Bless.

  317. Dr. SoHope says:

    “One of our “Evangelicals” is a creepy old perv with issues who stalks pretty 20 somethings on Facebook and makes them feel uncomfortable.”

    Hey!!! I’m 31 and don’t do facebook. I possess only the standard ammount of perversion and have never stalked anyone.

  318. Walt says:

    AWESOME

    Said they speak 4 languages?

    Italian, English and what else?

    Spanish? and Hopi?

  319. Walt says:

    AWESOME

    A WES O ME
    ************************

    Can’t you see????

    It is WES

    (a name spelled within aWESome)

    TA DA!!!!!

  320. Dr. SoHope says:

    Also, everyone is free to believe what you want. I happen to believe in an afterlife that has rules of admission. That doesn’t make me hateful or bigoted. I will tell you that my belief is that the rules of admission are faith based and not merit based (thank God for that) but that is as far as I will take it.

    It your religion states that you must dress like a clown and make meow for 3 hours a day or you will go to hell then more power to you.

  321. Mr.Vito says:

    “…dress like a clown and make meow for 3 hours a day or you will go to hell then more power to you.”

    Dude! I’m in! I already do this for 2 hours a day!

  322. Jack, of Jack and the Bean Stalk says:

    Hey, nothing wrong with stalking….

    I am who I am because of stalking
    ************************************
    Now just where is that goose that lays the golden eggs….

  323. Walt says:

    AWESOME,

    Can you please put up the polling result for my State House of Delegates district?

    I would appreciate it.

  324. Dr. SoHope says:

    I think we can all agree all socks face eternal damnation in the lent trap of despair

  325. Walt says:

    Will each sock stand on its own or must they go in pairs to Heaven or Hell?

  326. jason says:

    “I happen to believe in an afterlife that has rules of admission. That doesn’t make me hateful or bigoted”

    Right, it doesn’t. You are free to believe what you want.

    It’s when you decide that other people have to believe in what you believe that it becomes a problem.

    And it becomes bigotry when you use your beliefs to discriminate against others.

    SusyQue has a big problem with what others believe in.

    Some think that because she is a moron with the IQ of a turnip she should get a break.

    I don’t happen to agree.

  327. Dr. SoHope says:

    Matthew 24:40

    Then shall two be in the field; the one shall be taken, and the other left.

  328. Dr. SoHope says:

    “It’s when you decide that other people have to believe in what you believe that it becomes a problem.”

    I personally believe that you have to “believe a certain thing” in order to get in “the afterlife I believe in” and I don’t believe in any other afterlife….is that a problem for you, Jason???

  329. Mr.Vito says:

    Who the h3ll keeps their socks in a field?

  330. Addisonst says:

    without stalking none of us would be here. Your great grandmother didn’t let your great grandfather anywhere near her the first time he asked her out. He had to come over numerous times. Court, sleep on the porch.

    Well ok if you were Irish that’s not true but no ethnicity with any class let a first time interloper get near his object of desire without serious stalking

  331. Dr. SoHope says:

    336 was an answer to Walt’s sock afterlife question.

  332. Mr.Vito says:

    Every sock is judged accordingly. Thank goodness… I would NEVER be able to make up for the sins of Sir Carmine.

  333. Walt says:

    Matt. 24:40
    yeah, he talks about two in the field.

    But what about two in the sock drawer?

  334. Dr. SoHope says:

    Who the h3ll keeps their socks in a field?

    Fruit of the Loom?

    BTW, all my socks are knitted, not woven?

  335. Bitterlaw says:

    Hope – are you saying that when a sock disappears in the dryer, it is realy the Rapture.

  336. Mr.Vito says:

    Only right socks disappear in the dryer… the rest of us are left.

  337. janz says:

    #335 jason

    Just do some chilling towards susyque. She is entitled to her beliefs, just as you are to your’s. Even if she attempts to persuade people into thinking as she does, you are fully capable of rejecting it, and simply moving on without making a major crisis out of it, or subjecting her to ‘moron’ status.

  338. Dr. SoHope says:

    Bitter, I take it you havent seen the two latest installments of the Left Behind series?

    The Battle of Arm & Hammer

    and

    The Rise of the Anti-Static Dryer Sheet

  339. Dr. SoHope says:

    Mr. Vito, have you taken the Mark of the Bleach?

  340. Mr.Vito says:

    Sir Carmine is very old… he was in the garden of eden… Eve thought he was a serpent. In the new testament he was part of the legion cast into the swine… however he made his way into a sheep and passed himself down from generation to generation until the Amish sheep we were knitted from.

    In between he has made many leaps and left a trail of havoc…

    The fall of Rome? Carmine.
    Mrs. OLeary’s cow? nuh uh… Carmine.
    The Hindenberg? Carmine.
    The McCoy’s pig? not stolen… Carmine.

  341. jason says:

    Ï personally believe that you have to “believe a certain thing” in order to get in “the afterlife I believe in” and I don’t believe in any other afterlife….is that a problem for you, Jason???”

    None at all. You can believe in what you want. I am perfectly fine that you think you need to believe in certain things to get into the afterlife.

  342. Bitterlaw says:

    Hope – Personally, I think Snuggles is the Anti-Christ. Nothing can be that cute and good at the same time.

  343. Mr.Vito says:

    “Mr. Vito, have you taken the Mark of the Bleach?”

    No, never.

    But once Carmine gave me the black spot… said it was from his pirate days. Apparently he had a run-in with Davy Jones.

  344. Walt says:

    Well, all you people and socks sleep tight tonight.

    You may awake tomorrow and have to deal with “God knows what” HEAD ASS might do to further destroy the nation or the world.
    ************************************
    We may luck out since it is a weekend and he may take a day or two off from the pillaging and ruining of the nation.

    Peace.

  345. Mr.Vito says:

    That snuggles bear tries to snuggle me and I’ll make him my b!tch.

  346. Mr.Vito says:

    Good night Walt… DrJay says Kiki Cuyler and Rogers Hornsby… whatever that means.

  347. Dr. SoHope says:

    well I am out too…later

  348. SusyQue says:

    Jason/et al… stop talking foolishness…everyone on this blog is over 21 years old. We are all adults. You are responsible for your own life and one one can convert you. If you are a miserable person you have chosen to be that. Name calling is a social blunder for people who are ill mannered and who project their own misery on others. I am very thankful for the good life God has blessed me with since I was born. Sadly, it has become trendy to criticize outstanding people with outstanding accomplishments. You may very well be smarter than I am but you lack wisdom and that
    is a gift only God can give.

  349. SusyQue says:

    Janz…you are a jewel…a wise woman…I appreciate your peace-maker skills.

  350. DrJay says:

    Susy, what is your favorite parable?

  351. jason says:

    SusyQue you are an ignorant moron who thinks somehow you have been appointed by God to spread your twisted views of what religion is about here.

    You haven’t. This is not a forum for whatever missionary work you feel you feel compelled to accomplish.

    And nobody cares what your ideas of acceptable blog behavior are.

    If you can get these two concepts clear in your limited brain you won’t have to whine all the time about how you are treated.

  352. jason says:

    “#335 jason

    Just do some chilling towards susyque. She is entitled to her beliefs, just as you are to your’s. ”

    Exactly.

    Nobody cares what her beliefs are, so why not keep them to herself.

    Or better, why doesn’t she go to a site where people are interested on her views on religion, if such a place exists.

    I give the same advice to Bunu, I think he will be much happier over at Stormfront or Daily Paul.

  353. Howard Dean says:

    As Sunday’s Greek elections approach, there’s a rising consensus and concern that the plebiscite could prove to be a Lehman Brothers moment for Europe. That is to say, if the hard-left bailout-denouncing Syriza party wins, it could set off a cataclysm in the markets, a chain reaction that would set neighbors and then the whole world on fire.

    ….

    Saddle up.

    Go Syriza!

  354. SusyQue says:

    DrJay…I cannot express how deeply I love the Lord for what He has done for me. I have no favorable parable because I love reading and believing all the parables. Jesus is my first love. He said. “If you love me, you will do what I say.” So, when I seek His wisdom and read His word and do what it says, I am expressing my love to Him.
    What is your favorite parable?

  355. DrJay says:

    the sheep and the shepherd

  356. DrJay says:

    Mr.Vito approves too.

  357. Bitterlaw says:

    My favorite statement in the bible is “Render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s.” I think it means keep religion and politics separate at HHR.

  358. jason says:

    My favorite parable:

    The Parable of the Pharisee and the Tax Collector

    To some who were confident of their own righteousness and looked down on everyone else, Jesus told this parable: “Two men went up to the temple to pray, one a Pharisee and the other a tax collector. The Pharisee stood by himself and prayed: ‘God, I thank you that I am not like other people—robbers, evildoers, adulterers—or even like this tax collector. I fast twice a week and give a tenth of all I get.’

    “But the tax collector stood at a distance. He would not even look up to heaven, but beat his breast and said, ‘God, have mercy on me, a sinner.’

    “I tell you that this man, rather than the other, went home justified before God. For all those who exalt themselves will be humbled, and those who humble themselves will be exalted.”

  359. SusyQue says:

    #365…DrJay, yes it’s beautiful the way the Lord looks over us and go out of His way to find us if we stay.

    I have blogged at HHR for many years. I am very interested in current events and politics. I got that from my father as a little girl.
    (Greeks in Greece are always talking politics.) This election is sooo
    important to me and I trust you feel the same way. I like to post interesting articles….I don’t really understand the interpretation of polling numbers, so I admire the bloggers who do.

  360. SusyQue says:

    #367…Bitter…Sunday is Father’s Day, have you ever told your Dad
    that you love him?

  361. Bitterlaw says:

    SusyQue- He will be 85 in a month. His generation doesn’t want to hear that. He knows I love him. I also told him that I have already written most of his eulogy if he ever wants to hear it. We have the same sence of humor.

  362. SusyQue says:

    #371..Bitter, I am sure you have many laughs together! You’re a good son because you do look out for your Dad.

  363. Mr.Vito says:

    Welcome to the HHR night shift…

    For your listening pleasure… a few Presidents of the United States that know a little something about being im”peached”

    …and some beautiful artwork.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmaF6IOODFc

  364. Mr.Vito says:

    Ah, yeah… Mr.Vito flipping the tracks…

    And now we bring you to a smooth groove featuring our buddy Bunu… be sure to watch for the shock ending, where we discover why Bunu keeps the tinfoil under that hat.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=aa3rBVb3v4g

  365. Mr.Vito says:

    And now, in honor of Papa Tim, a song that is sometimes peaceful, sometimes a bit stressful… and at times downright depressing… but still endearing.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFkzRNyygfk

  366. sir Albert says:

    I hate to say this, but Romney may have made a bad move today. If 70 percent of this country is against illegal immigration/amnesty, why would he not play those odds?

    And Rubio introducing his own Dream Act could be a mistake of epic proportions.

    I mean, what is to gain for Rubio introducing his own version now?

  367. sir Albert says:

    Romney could lose the base right when we are starting to belive in him.

  368. Mr.Vito says:

    Sir Albert joins us on the program… what do you say Al? Can the Cardinals get back on track?

  369. sir Albert says:

    The Cards are always reliable. Kind of like Alabama Crimson Tide Football so yes.

  370. sir Albert says:

    Romney’s campaign has been top notch thus far, but I’m telling you, the base is pulling its hair out over this one.

    He needs to put the president’s move today into economic terms like jobs for Americans first. He must use the economy to make the desperate move by ooo look severely out of touch.

  371. Mr.Vito says:

    Indeed… the Cardinals always seem to at least give themselves a chance in the end. More teams into the playoffs, too…

    Interesting point about Romney… do you have a link?

  372. sir Albert says:

    No link, just my take. It’s a great opportunity for Romney. In baseball terms–a pitch right over the plate, but does he see it?

  373. Mr.Vito says:

    We’re nearing the end of our programming…

    Next is a beautiful ballad about my chance encounter with the Bitterlaws on the subway… you’re a lucky man!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oofSnsGkops

    Notice the one article of clothing that seems to be missing… (a coincidence? I think not!)

  374. sir Albert says:

    Good night hogs.

  375. Bitterlaw says:

    Sir Albert- ZzzzzzzzZzzzzz. I forgot abour the “But what about the (never defined) base?” whine. Truly Deadender old school rhythm.

  376. Mr.Vito says:

    Good night, Sir Al… we’ll see how this amnesty thing plays out in the polling in the next week.

  377. Mr.Vito says:

    Good night all! I’ll leave you with a song I can’t get out of my head… MD kept singing large portions of the tune in the shower for six weeks straight after Gary Maxwell made his infamous exit…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAKm7JWZ2xI

    Special thanks to Sir Albert!

    My apologies to Chekote, who we couldn’t bring out due to time constraints (wink wink).

  378. AWESOME says:

    I do not understand this animosity against me. I am not a troll, neither Wes or BonnCaruso. As I said, I am just a lurker from long time back and have still good memory even if I am relatively old. I am trying to give here some useful contribution. You do not have to like the numbers I post, and you are free to criticize them. I am using a methodology and that’s it.

  379. AWESOME says:

    Coming back to the discussion of including PPP or not, I want just to point out that AWESOME has an intrinsic mechanism to mitigate/obviate any possible distortion. Many of you say that it is the party affiliation used by certain pollsters that would skew the results. AWESOME does not use the original party affiliation provided by the pollster but it weights them with the statistically average of the party affiliation of all polls. This reduces the dispersion and mitigates the skew. This will be clearer with time when more state polls will be available and I will show how AWESOME “changes” the result by re-weighting. HTH.

  380. AWESOME says:

    #327

    Walt,

    French.

  381. Bitterlaw says:

    AWESOME is more boring than Polaris but takes 20x as many words to say the same thing. Discuss.

  382. AWESOME says:

    #318

    Walt,

    that is correct. That is the result of the statistical weighted average of all cross tables available.

  383. MFG says:

    I don’t see how the issue of deliberately fraudulent data can be gotten around

    You’d be better off selecting six or seven pollsters with high reliability then weighting them

    If I started making up numbers today would you add them into your average because you’re confident your system would later discount them?

    The idea is ridiculous be gotten around

    Much better would be picking 6 or 7 pollsters

  384. MFG says:

    Ok awesome here’s my.poll
    MI June 15

    Mitt 75%
    Obama 25%

    MoE 1.1%

  385. Bitterlaw says:

    I met MD once because he lives 6 miles away. Dave W went to the university 2 blocks from my house. Hellbelly’s son is going to college close to my house. Brandon, Jason and Barrett are within a 3 hour drive from my house. Am I the center of the HHR Universe?

  386. AWESOME says:

    #240

    MFG,

    I thought about it. I do not think at this stage, we are still more than 4 months away from elections, we have the right to break down the undecided in favor of the challenger. Undecided are still what they are: undecided. Maybe down the road (in the last month?), we can think of “forcing” the undecided to vote. I am open to a good suggestion on how to do that.

  387. Bitterlaw says:

    MFG – I didn’t even understand AWESOME enough to be able to make fun of him effectively.

  388. AWESOME says:

    #392

    Bitterlaw,

    I apologized in advance for my pedantic style. See #111.

  389. Bitterlaw says:

    Pedantic? I was going to use verbose or overblown.

  390. MFG says:

    Well you can’t assign electoral votes to candidates then
    When I worked on Bobby jindals first governors race a seven point lead turned into a four point loss in a week the opponent went negative we didn’t respond I estimate undecideds broke 9-1 against us

    46%-44% with ten percent undecided tells me nothing

  391. lisab says:

    Bitterlaw,

    you are cranky this morning

    here is some music to cheer you up

    ummmmmm … you may want to drop acid first :)

    DJ Anjali and The Incredible Kid

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z988suWE4TM

  392. AWESOME says:

    #394

    MFG,

    I consider only documented polls (normally they appear in RealClearPolitics). For that you have noticed that I have not included the Palladin/CFP polls :-).

  393. MFG says:

    I would start with the assumption that undecideds break 3-2 against obama which is reasonable

  394. MFG says:

    You’d be.better off with paladin
    Ppp is agenda driven horseshiiit the network polls are d+10 or worse
    GIGO

  395. AWESOME says:

    #440

    Bitterlaw,

    OK. I apologize for my verbose and overblown style. Cream soda :-).

  396. Bitterlaw says:

    HHR posters I have met:

    MD

    HHR posters I could meet without much effort:

    hellbelly
    Lisab (if she wants to meet me on my Boston vacation)
    Jason
    Dave W.
    Brandon
    Jul

  397. Bitterlaw says:

    Cream soda? You are a lurker. Cream soda.

  398. MFG says:

    Nothing with PPP in it can be taken seriously nothing from the networks usind d+12 can be taken seriously nothing with registered voters (as opposed to likely) can be taken seriously

  399. AWESOME says:

    #405

    DW,

    maybe it is because I am used to the idea that people do not cheat, but I would, at least for the moment, keep them all. In the scientific world cheating is the worst sin: you are automatically disqualified.

  400. Waingro says:

    Wow, looks like the Miz – er AWESOME – has already managed within less than 24 hours feel the wrath of HHR.

  401. Howard Dean says:

    (Reuters) – With President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney delivering dueling visions for the U.S. economy in speeches on Thursday, a majority of independents said that Obama’s policies have made it harder for Americans to gain employment, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Friday.

  402. Emerica says:

    I see MittWitt has flip flopped on DREAM act and amnesty this morning.

    More validation that he will say anything to get elected and that no one should trust him or vote for him.

  403. Emerica says:

    Montana, Iowa & Virginia State Conventions all this weekend.

    Let’s hope they all oppose Mitt Romney,

  404. Dr. SoHope says:

    Ron Paul!!!

  405. bio mom says:

    I usually do not name call here but Emerica you truly are an absolute idiot.

  406. jason says:

    “Let’s hope they all oppose Mitt Romney”

    Bunu, the man (?) History left in the dust…..

  407. jason says:

    “More validation that he will say anything to get elected and that no one should trust him or vote for him.”

    Bunu, you need to vote for Obama.

    He promised to transform America as we know it and he is doing it.

    You can trust him.

  408. jason says:

    “HHR posters I could meet without much effort:

    hellbelly
    Lisab (if she wants to meet me on my Boston vacation)
    Jason
    Dave W.
    Brandon
    Jul”

    If you call purchasing some nice gifts such a case of fine wine and a genuine NFL Tebow jersey “not much effort” I would have to agree.

  409. Bitterlaw says:

    json – do they sell the jerseys of backups? I can’t find any Mike Kafka jerseys for the Eagles. Zing!

  410. phoenixrisen says:

    Please Bunu. I don’t think Mitt made any bad move at all yesterday. He was smart not to have a knee-jerk reaction. That’s why he didn’t respond to desperate reporters who were shouting at him yesterday. He’s better off just holding to what he has said in the past and deferring to Congress to come up with a solution for the immigration problem.

    Obama is desperate and he wanted to cut out Rubio’s proposal before it got legs. He is all about saving his presidency no holds barred. I think this really hurt Obama badly, particularly in the Midwest. Obama has already been up with a 2-1 edge on Romney in the Hispanic vote. I don’t think he can get much more out of that voting segment. But there are a ton of blue-collar white indies and Democrats in the Midwest that are really going to have a problem with him on this.

  411. bio mom says:

    Except for white limousine liberals Obama has pretty much lost the white vote and he knows it. I take no joy in this situation because such division is not good for the country. But he deserves to lose and quite frankly he has not been a president for all of the country, just for his favored groups. And he does not even try to hide it.