Two More National Polls Show Close Presidential Race

If you need any more evidence that Bloomberg’s poll released earlier today was absurd, even Public Policy Polling has the race within the margin of error.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%

This poll was done June 14-17 among 1000 registered voters. Meanwhile, YouGov and The Economist are showing Romney and Obama in a dead heat tie.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%

This poll was done June 16-18 among registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 10:40 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (119)

119 Responses to “Two More National Polls Show Close Presidential Race”

  1. addisonst says:

    First bishes.

  2. Walt says:


    DW (if you are here) thanks so much for your suggestions about the neat hiking trails at First Landing State Park (Va. Beach). My wife and I did one this a.m. and one this evening.

    Both real neat hikes. Wife said to be sure to thank you.

  3. Mr.Vito says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    June 20, 2012 at 10:39 pm

    no, for you I am and I always be an android.

    Comment by AWESOME



    He’s not much more than an interpreter, and not very good at telling stories…

  4. addisonst says:

    So I said whatever you do, don’t tell bitter. Oh hey bitter.

  5. Bitterlaw says:

    Corbett’s proposal calls for Shell to receive $66 million a year in tax credits over 25 years, beginning when the so-called “cracker” plant is scheduled to open, in 2017. Neither the governor nor legislators were offering details Wednesday night of whether the numbers had changed in budget negotiations.

    $66 million. Mother of God – The Philadelphia School District could piss that away in a month and create no jobs.

    Comment by Bitterlaw

  6. Bitterlaw says:

    Add – I feel as if you and I have reached a good stage in our relationship. A healthy mix of respect and contempt. Cream soda.

  7. lisab says:

    i have done the princess leya golden bikini thing

  8. addisonst says:

    I have no contempt. And I admire how you spell judgment properly.

  9. addisonst says:

    And I was one of the first people to recognize cream soda as I love midnight run. Are you moron number one? Put moron number 2 on the phone

  10. Corey says:

    Awesome is definitely not Monetarist.

  11. addisonst says:

    You don’t look like a criminal. I’m a white collar criminal.

  12. AWESOME says:

    #212 and #214 from previous tread.

    MD and Bitterlaw,

    Wes is a political scientist while I am an applied nuclear physicist. Do you think he would be able to code the AWESOME methodology? It is not a big code (about a thousand lines in Fortran language); however, it requires some skills that political scientists do not have.

  13. addisonst says:

    Lonsmen good evening. In about 4 weeks we can start the superfan chat. I tink marshull will have tew hunnert catches and tirty tree touchdowns.

  14. Mr.Vito says:

    “i have done the princess leya golden bikini thing”

    Why wasn’t she admitted into the a-hole club again?

  15. AWESOME says:

    Reposting from the previous tread.

    Ok, back to business. Below the electoral votes using the aggregate results from each individual states. States that have switched side from 2008: IN, NC, CO, FL. Ohio is essentially a tie. If Romney wants to win, he should work on VA. What do you think MD? Does this look realistic?



                         DEM.        REP.          IND.
    PARTY ID.    38.8%       33.8%       27.5%


    STATE      WEIGHT      OBAMA      ROMNEY      E. V. OBAMA      E. V. ROMNEY

    AL            1.6%           39.0%           61.0%                                                 9
    AK            0.4%           38.0%           60.0%                                                 3
    AZ            1.8%           45.0%           54.0%                                                 11
    AR            0.9%           46.6%           51.9%                                                 6
    CA            10.2%           60.5%           38.0%                   55                              
    CO            1.7%           48.9%           49.6%                                                 9
    CT            1.3%           56.0%           42.5%                   7                              
    DE            0.4%           62.0%           37.0%                   3                              
    DC            0.3%           93.0%           7.0%                   3                              
    FL            6.0%           48.0%           50.5%                                                 29
    GA            2.9%           41.9%           56.6%                                                 16
    HI            0.5%           72.0%           27.0%                   4                              
    ID            0.6%           36.0%           61.0%                                                 4
    IL            4.1%           62.0%           37.0%                   20                              
    IN            2.1%           44.3%           54.2%                                                 11
    IA            1.2%           50.7%           47.8%                   6                              
    KS            1.0%           42.0%           57.0%                                                 6
    KY            1.4%           41.0%           58.0%                                                 8
    LA            1.5%           40.0%           59.0%                                                 8
    ME            0.6%           57.7%           40.8%                   4                              
    MD            1.9%           62.0%           37.0%                   10                              
    MA            2.3%           62.6%           35.9%                   11                              
    MI            3.6%           51.5%           47.0%                   16                              
    MN            2.1%           56.7%           41.8%                   10                              
    MS            1.0%           43.0%           56.0%                                                 6
    MO            2.1%           46.0%           52.5%                                                 10
    MT            0.4%           44.4%           54.1%                                                 3
    NE            0.7%           43.4%           55.1%                                                 5
    NV            0.8%           52.6%           45.9%                   6                              
    NH            0.6%           54.6%           43.9%                   4                              
    NJ            2.8%           58.2%           40.3%                   14                              
    NM            0.7%           57.6%           40.9%                   5                              
    NY            5.7%           62.9%           35.6%                   29                              
    NC            3.0%           47.3%           51.2%                                                 15
    ND            0.4%           42.2%           56.3%                                                 3
    OH            4.1%           49.4%           49.1%                   18                              
    OK            1.2%           29.9%           68.6%                                                 7
    OR            1.4%           51.3%           47.2%                   7                              
    PA            4.3%           54.2%           44.3%                   20                              
    RI            0.5%           63.0%           35.0%                   4                              
    SC            1.5%           45.0%           54.0%                                                 9
    SD            0.4%           45.0%           53.0%                                                 3
    TN            2.0%           42.0%           57.0%                                                 11
    TX            6.4%           45.5%           53.0%                                                 38
    UT            0.9%           34.0%           63.0%                                                 6
    VT            0.4%           68.0%           31.0%                   3                              
    VA            2.6%           50.3%           48.2%                   13                              
    WA            2.3%           54.3%           44.2%                   12                              
    WV            0.7%           43.0%           56.0%                                                 5
    WI            2.2%           51.0%           47.5%                   10                              
    WY            0.3%           33.0%           65.0%                                                 3

    AGGR.    100.0%          51.6%          47.0%                294                            244

    DISCLAIMER: AWESOME is a methodology, outlined here , under test and
    results cannot be considered reliable. Results are provided only for my own ludic
    purposes and the entertainment of the HHR community.

  16. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    D+5 is ridiculous

  17. AWESOME says:

    #224 from previous tread.


    the problem with NH is that there are no “fresh” polls. For PA also we do not have a significant number of polls. The situation will evolve for sure.

  18. jason says:

    Awesome reminds me of Frank and his long columns of numbers.

  19. addisonst says:

    Sock boy if you had a man cave would you let a nagging liberal chick in there if she wasn’t hot and at least a b cup?

  20. Mr.Vito says:

    I have done the Jabba tongue-waggle strangle thing…

    boy was MD mad that day…

    mad enough to pull the ears off a gundark, I tell ya!

  21. addisonst says:

    Mfg have you read confederacy of dunces?

  22. MD says:

    Per MFG – no way we lose PA by 10 this time. Also, I think NH will be very close.

    I think it all comes down to VA, OH and NH. NC, IN and FL will flip. We get the other 3 and it is game over. Now, if we don’t get NH, then IA is our next best bet.

    If we don’t get both VA and OH, Obama wins. We cannot lose either one.

  23. jason says:

    If Dave shows the poll in red, even though Obama is ahead, it means we will win.

  24. MD says:

    MFG – I am thinking D +3. My best guess.

  25. jensen says:

    Actually we were going to have to show Romney ahead, but the Bloomberg poll gave us cover and we did a quick redo.

  26. MD says:

    The good news is that Obama is going to have to defend many states he thought were very safe 6 months ago. MI, WI, IA, CO and maybe NV and PA.

  27. Mr.Vito says:

    Frank was from Connecticut.

    Barney Frank is from Massachusetts.

    Frankenstein was from Germany.

    Frankfurters are yummy.

    Anne Frank was Jewish.

    Frankly, Clark Gable didn’t give a damn.

  28. AWESOME says:



    I explained sometime ago that that specific party affiliation is not realistic now. It is the result of the aggregate of all states. More than half of the states have no polls, so I had to use the results of the 2008 exit polls. If you go back to the previous tread I posted the summary of the national polls. There the national party affiliation is D(+0.8), which is, I think, realistic. I expect that, eventually, the two party affiliation (national and state aggregate) will converge close to election.

  29. addisonst says:

    Even ezra klein mocked bloomberg.

  30. Bitterlaw says:

    Mr. Vito – lisab was on the short list ahead of jason. However, when she flipped and battled almost all of HHR on why teachers should … Forget it. I can’t fight that battle again. MD said he would quit if the union goon joined. Of course, that was when MD drank and ate food and wasn’t a chick. Today? Who knows how the vote would go?

  31. MD says:

    Holder wanted Issa to agree to NOT prosecute if he turned over the documents. These guys are flat out unreal. That is pretty much an admission.

  32. Mr.Vito says:

    #30 but… but… she does the golden bikini thingy.

  33. J. Cutler says:

    I was invited to Add’s man cave. But there were more posters and pictures of Obama than there were of me me me me, so I left.

  34. sir Albert says:

    I was thinking the same thing. It’s Frank!

  35. MD says:

    25 days and no alcohol. Down 9 pounds. Actually, don’t want to lose much more. Did a 5K in 27.56. Now, EML would laugh at that but considering that 4 weeks ago, I couldn’t even have thought about that says I have made progress. The BP is down a lot.

  36. janz says:


    Current issues such as the outcome of the ACA decision, and whether or not the F & F takes off hang in the balance of how Obama’s reelection goes, IMO.

    Like Awesome said, in the previous thread, Obama has been under a lucky star — but that may all change soon.

  37. addisonst says:

    Holder is gone either way. Presumably his boss loses. But if he wins what upside does his boss have to fight this fight next year w Issa. If obama does win there’s no downside to impeaching holder.

  38. Bitterlaw says:

    Rock Rep alwaus wanted to entertain the HHR community. Another AWESOME suspect.

  39. janz says:


    Do you miss drinking?

  40. janz says:


    Can Holder even be impeached?

  41. jason says:

    “The situation will evolve for sure.”


    Things are what they are.

    And what will be will be.

  42. MD says:

    Janz – no, but I also didn’t promise to abstain forever. Basically, I am hitting the reset button because I was alarmed about my health. I really didn’t drink as much as would indicate here by our joking around but I was no teetotaler to be certain.

    I haven’t found it to be very hard to be honest. I have probably been in a dozen situations already where I would have had some drinks. Found it easy to not drink.

  43. jason says:

    Nah. Rockefeller Troll was too dumb to keep a fake handle for more than 3 posts before giving himself away.

    That’s how he outed himself on the first night.

  44. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – please don’t take this the wrong way. I think it is a good thing that you are taking care of yourself. You should be proud. I hope you save this with the Maxwell Farewell because I won’t say it again.

  45. Mr.Vito says:

    J. Cutler says:
    June 20, 2012 at 11:08 pm

    I was invited to Add’s man cave. But there were more posters and pictures of Obama than there were of me me me me, so I left.


    Jay, its not add’s fault your posters take up a whole wall in order to fit your swollen head in them.

  46. addisonst says:

    My man cave has month cutler or s4b pics. It does have payton pics and my sons middle name is payton.

  47. MD says:

    Janz – I don’t think he can be impeached. I am not sure how he can even be charged with actual crimes. The House can hold him in contempt. It is plainly obvious by his actions that he or people who worked for him broke the law. Not sure what can be done to be honest.

  48. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    This election will not be close, a Romney blowout is most likely

    8% unemployment for four years
    The economy retanking
    Europe collapsing
    China slowing
    HellCare going down (great for us)
    Or being upheld (even better – itll ramp up our turnout)
    Growth revised downward again by the Fed, the same Fed which has constantly OVERestimated growth

    Barring some sort of health problem (God forbid) Mitt wins easily

    Obama’s chances are WAY under 20% right now

  49. Bitterlaw says:

    MD doesn’t miss drinking. He just misses being drunk. Zing!

  50. addisonst says:

    Janz I believe as a constituional office holder he can be impeached but don’t hold me to that. How else do you remove him? He’s not subject to voters.

  51. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    This asssshole is going to need to start a war to try to pull this out

  52. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    Add, no, never got around to reading CoD

  53. MD says:

    48 – the math doesn’t say that MFG.

  54. addisonst says:

    I concur w mfg. But mitt has not closed the deal.

  55. janz says:

    #42 MD

    I would say you are a very disciplined man. My father-in-law was like that. He had some kind of episode with his pancreas. His Dr. told him to cut back on the liquor. He said fine, and basically never drank again, except for non-alcoholic beer. I was pretty in awe of how he could just turn over a new leaf…immediately, and not really look back.

    Anyway, I’ve been following your new patterns of health on HHR, and am quite impressed.

  56. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – my brother’s trugliceride level is 400. Since he won’t give up drinking I guess I should start writing his eulogy.

  57. MD says:

    MFG – I agree on your points FWIW. The Obama factions that he is pandering to do not vote on those issues. They are generally 1 issue voters or sheep. Regrettably, that is a significant portion of our population.

  58. jason says:

    It’s depressing MD has cut down on booze. Now I am the only one that drinks more than I pretend to.

    MD, if you want to donate your bar I will be happy to hire a moving van to go pick it up.

    If you could label the cases by category it would be helpful.

    Like separating the single malts and so forth.

  59. janz says:

    #50 Add,

    That’s why I asked, as I was wondering myself how Holder could be removed.

  60. addisonst says:

    Mfg you must. Its hilarious and its pure nawlins. I’ve read it 5 times but there are undoubtedly references that you would get in first read as a local that I haven’t caught.

  61. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    You CAN’T win elections with these numbers, its not that it’s difficult to win with numbers like this its IMPOSSIBLE

    FDR only did it because the economy started improving as he neared reelection, things are CLEARLY retanking

    And the Fed said today they expect 8% for the rest of the year and they revised growth down again

    And why Retwist as well?

    Because the economy is dying

    And after four years of this he’s going to get reelected?

  62. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    I’ll put it on my Kindle wish list Add

  63. MD says:

    Thanks Jan! Don’t worry bitter – I’ll try to forget that you were nice to me after 11 pm on a work night one time. I won’t ruin your rep by re-posting it all the time.

    Jan – I find I like Seltzer water. The rest of the family hates it. Perfect.

  64. addisonst says:

    The 2 funniest novels of all time are confederacy of dunces and catch 22.

  65. jason says:

    Truglicerides rather than Fakeglicerides?

    Mine used to be around 50 but lately climbed to 150.

  66. janz says:

    Well MD, you are a good example of mind over matter, that’s for sure!

  67. MD says:

    61 – You can win. Friggin Boxer won and she literally denied a significant portion of her state water!!!

    Past is not prologue MFG. In the end, whoever wins will do so by a small margin. This is not set up for a blowout. Wish it was.

  68. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    Well, if we’re at the point where people nationally vote like they do in CA then its time to revisit secession

    But I don’t think we’re there yet

  69. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    No way this is close

    No way

    Mitt by 3%-5% at a minimum, likely higher

  70. Mr.Vito says:

    “Jan – I find I like Seltzer water. The rest of the family hates it. Perfect.”

    I am going to have to inform the population here in the sock drawer… it is great for removing stains.

    If one is missing… it wasn’t me.

  71. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    trig of 400 is awful

  72. Scooby77 says:

    #15 Awesome:

    I haven’t been posting since the debacle known as the 2008 election, but I do read the website quite a bit.

    Just for reference, per the “Unlikely Voter” website’s Swingometer, Romney needs to win by 2.2% to win the electoral college.

  73. MD says:

    My tri’s were OK. Glucose was getting a little high although it wasn’t high yet. BP and Cholesterol were my major problems. I know my BP has improved a lot. Not sure about the cholesterol though.

  74. AWESOME says:



    Frank was an Indiana middle school teacher that was making just averaging over 30 days. With all due respect, AWESOME is a little bit more complex algorithm.

  75. sir Albert says:


  76. addisonst says:

    Its interesting that obama threw gam gam and his minster under the bus but is still protecting holder. I really though the scandal stopped w holder but maybe the story of wanting to force gun control on people came from the oval.

  77. MD says:

    jason – MFG is right. That isn’t good. Just found out my neighbor, 2 years younger than me, not obese and not a big drinker has total c of 240 and LDL of 162 with an HDL of 36. That is very problematic.

  78. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    Holder has something big on Captain Communism or he’d be gone by now…

  79. MD says:

    Good night.

  80. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    HDL of 36 is screaming heart attack

  81. jason says:

    I like Solomon’s Temple by Stanley Hoffman… not a classic in literature but funny about losing weight.

    What Do Women Want by Dan Greenburg

    Very funny.

  82. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    Goodnight MD

    Hope the Phils improve

  83. addisonst says:

    I don’t think pop vote will be close. Red states are going to be insane. Texas 60 percent? 65?

  84. lisab says:

    ” but… but… she does the golden bikini thingy.”

    did …

    did the golden bikini thingy.”

  85. addisonst says:

    Mfg that’s my take too. I think holder perjured himself to protect his boss. He’s the liddy of liberals. We should start calling him that. Or the ollie north.

  86. addisonst says:

    Dan jenkins is also hilarious but he’s not a heavyweight.

  87. jason says:

    Yeah my total cholesterol is 300. HDL is 65, the only saving grace. Not overweight, don’t smoke, normal BP, normal glucose. Don’t exercise either.

    Probably not long for this world, but I hope to make it to see Obama lose.

  88. jason says:

    Holder is probably a dam holding a lot of other stuff back in addition to Fast and Furious.

    That’s why he can’t be thrown under the bus.

  89. frank says:

    “Frank was an Indiana middle school teacher that was making just averaging over 30 days. With all due respect, AWESOME is a little bit more complex algorithm.”

    You are a humble bastard aren’t you.


  90. addisonst says:

    Holder when he’s not busy w perjury is explaining why I can’t get into my own office w out an id but I don’t need one to vote.

  91. AWESOME says:



    I sincerely apologize if I have offended you. I was just pointing out the difference in the approach of treating the data. Sorry again.

  92. addisonst says:

    Frank good to see you if only for a second. I always liked your posts and wish you were still here.

  93. AWESOME says:



    on a second thought, Frank was too polite to make a post like that. It is probably Jason.

  94. AWESOME says:


    I mean Addisonst.

  95. Walt says:

    I can’t stay up any later.

    I declare this post to be 100, or as close as I can get to it so I will call


  96. RickPerrysParakeet says:


    are you on statins?


  97. jason says:

    306 but I rounded it down… 8)

  98. jason says:

    91. I accept your apology on Frank’s behalf.

  99. jason says:

    I am scared of the big C.

  100. RickPerrysParakeet says:


  101. RickPerrysParakeet says:

    See (Canadian)

  102. jason says:

    Whew, that was close.

  103. jason says:

    Now I can post all night without getting close to any Cs.

  104. jason says:

    Me and a parakeet, I wonder if that dammed budgie will show up too?

  105. Mr.Vito says:

    How about a sock?

  106. Rick Perry's Budgie says:


  107. Rick Perry's Budgie says:


  108. Rick Perry's Budgie says:

    I got yelled at once for crapping in the sock drawer. Mrs. Perry wanted to feed me to the cat.

  109. Mr.Vito says:

    I was Rick Perry’s mock debate opponent.

  110. Mr.Vito says:

    Wait, the Perrys keep their budgie in a sock drawer?

    This is a bigger scandal than the Seamus thing!

  111. Mr.Vito says:

    AP-Gfk health care support:


    That’s in a sample that is 49-39 D-R

  112. Tim says:

    Who are You? Doris Day?

  113. Ben Romney says:

    They moved the party ID from R+3 in May to D+3 in June – LOL

    FLORIDA-President: Obama: 47/49
    Obama/Romney: 46/42

    Nelson/Mack: 43/39

  114. Ben Romney says:

    Tim what“ wrong with Doris Day??

    I love her

  115. Ben Romney says:

    Obama leads with 47% while Romney is just 1% behind at 46% in the telephone poll of 750 likely voters in the November General Election.

    Mitchell is a very good pollster.

    The nailed the 2010 governor and downballot races and also the 2008 races.

    And they also had Romney winning the MI GOP primary by a hair.

    Looks like MI might be really tightening.

    The good news for Romney is
    that he is holding the president below 50% in both his job approval (49%) and his share of the
    vote (47%)

    The automated survey was conducted Monday June 18, 2012 before Romney started his bus tour through the state.

    The poll has a Margin of Error + or – 3.58% at the 95% level of confidence. The survey was conducted by Mitchell Research for the media and was not paid for by any campaigns or committees.

  116. Tim says:

    Not one thing. I like her, as well. Read the last line of post #41. Sound familiar?

  117. Ben Romney says:

    ah I understand sorry Tim

    that`s great!!!

  118. Ben Romney says:

    MD lools like you“re wrong

    MI is really in play more as PA imo

  119. Scott says:

    #113-ben romney
    Yesterday, I said that Quinnipiac was going to release a rescue poll for Obama in FL.There you go!
    Quinn is usually accurate,but once in a while,it goes off the reservation.
    If we are to believe its polling,than in one moth,Obama has gone from 6 down to 4 up with bad economic news.
    In Quinn’s poll,the swing has occurred for two reasons: (1)A swing in the Part ID by 6 in favor of the Dems and(2) Quinn says that in May ,Indies were in Romney’s camp by +10,but in June they are in Obama’s camp by +10.
    If we are to believe this poll,then Romney is more competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan than in FL.
    Trash the poll!