Monday Morning Thread (Updated with MN Poll)
Just a quick look at the daily Gallup Tracking Poll from yesterday shows Barack Obama starts the week with a single percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Gallup tracking)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%
This edition of the poll was done July 15-21. Better news for Republicans from a new The Hill poll that shows voters are finally beginning to blame Barack Obama more for the bad economy than Congress, George W Bush and Wall Street.
BLAME FOR BAD ECONOMY (The Hill)
Barack Obama 34%
Congress 23%
Wall Street 20%
George W Bush 18%
This poll was done July 19th among 1000 likely voters and was done by the same polling organization that does the polls for Scott Rasmussen, so take that into account with these results.
126 work emails last week to go through on my first Monday back at work in nine days…fun times….
UPDATE (7:40am): One more poll to add this morning to this early morning thread that I missed (thanks to Brandon for finding it) for the state of Minnesota from Survey USA.
PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Survey USA)
Barack Obama (D_inc) 46%
Mitt Romney (R) 40%US SENATE – MINNESOTA (Survey USA)
Amy Klobuchar (D) 55%
Kurt Bills (R) 31%
This poll was done July 17-19 among 552 likely voters.
Minnesota(SurveyUSA)
Obama: 46%
Romney: 40%
Klobuchar: 55%
Bills: 31%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7eeab57a-eb71-47e3-aed7-5cab8493d94f
I’m from St. Louis, currently visiting OH for a few days– amazing difference in advertising. I’ve yet to see one Obama ad in MO, yet the airways are stock-full here in OH with both Obama and Romney- Obama has to be burning some big-time cash here in the Buckeye state… I think this makes it even more important for Romney to select Portman….
Obama has spent $100 million in ads, so far. And, 1/5 of that, in Ohio.
I still believe the basic thing applies, electorally. Look at three states; Pa., Fla., and Ohio. Win two of the three, and most likely, you are President.
Should Mitt commit resources to MN to strech Obama thin?
MI and PA are a Romney head fake IMO. I think Romney should add MN to that list. I do not believe he has committed himself to it yet.
Starting to feel that VP should either be Portman or McDonnell. Romney can lose either VA or OH — not both.
6 – I don’t think he can lose either.
He can’t lose Ohio, period.
Losing Virginia (assuming he wins Ohio) makes it pretty difficult for him.
Was at a couple of big parties this weekend with loads of R suburban women. When not discussing useless BS, the 2 topics were:
1. Can you believe how Corbett missed the Sandusky thing?
2. When will we finally ban all guns?
These are Republican women!!! Exactly why PA will not be won.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/23/obama_spending_push_brings_little_change_in_race_114872.html
Sean Trende analysis of the race as it stands today
Second or so poll that shows that the Obumbler is to blame for the poor economy. The blame Bush meme is done with.
Today, will be an ugly stock market day and Friday could be a sub 1 percent GDP growth rate.
If he picks up NH and IA — while retaining CO, I beleive he can lose one or the other. Obviously, I would want him to win both, but I think we are going to need a VP from one of those states to lock them in.
Thx, CCCP! Now we have the view of an honest-to-God admitted foreigner who votes socialist.
Thx, Tim. Now we know how real DEM Obama zealots (“Criticism of Obama is McCarthyite! Don’t you dare mention Van Jones!”) see the race.
7 states. The entire race comes down to just these states:
FL
OH
VA
IA
NH
CO
WI
IN and NC are going red. NC is something to look at for future years though. FL should turn as well even with the Obama pandering. The rest on the list all favor Obama today but are well within reach. MI, PA and Minn will break your heart every time. Worth spending the $ if you have them to force the Marxists to play defense.
In fact, there’s some evidence that the advertising barrage is actually hurting the president. Incumbent campaigns are usually loath to go negative because negative ads tend to drive down the incumbent as well as the challenger, and because they tend to increase the challenger’s name recognition (something that is not really an issue in a presidential race).
From that article cited by Biomom. Would add that this is a likely effect because the Obumbler is unpopular nationwide.
MI, PA, and WI – dare I say fool’s gold?
I’d heard that this year there were two extra wildcard teams in MLB, but I hadn’t really bothered to learn what the new playoff system was.
I’ve just now read up on it, and I can safely say it’s one of the most moronic things I’ve ever heard of.
Van Jones was an admitted Communist, and it is no surprise that Obama loves him. Like minds….
17 – how about the 1 pointer in the CFL?
15 – Tina
That is a great point. I saw the negative ad where they show Romney singing. Extremely negative for this early in a general. Going for the DQ. Hasn’t worked but I do think it has put some back on the fence maybe and, just maybe, bought Obama a point or 2. I wonder how ugly things will be in October? By then, Romney will be a mass murderer according to Obama.
Old Mr. Market not doing Recovery Summer IV any favors today. Headin’ south.
He will also have to deal with a worsening economy too, MD. I know the group that makes the recession call b/c of their political leanings will not make it official that we are in recession. They will say that it happened once Romney takes office, or after the Obumbler is re-elected.
Tina – China down 3%. Futures tanking. Oil is still over $90 though. Thanks Obama.
It will be interesting to see where the 10 year finishes today. Could be go sub 1.4%?
10 year is down too. 30 year rates at 3 percent soon?
And Anita Dunn thinks Mao was a great inspirational moral leader. She was zero’s communications director!
The green shoots have become crab grass.
And Fed is likely out of ammo too with the inept Bernuckle.
#12
What do you mean ‘retaining CO’?
If Romney loses Ohio, he would need ‘pick ups’ in IN, NC, FL, VA, CO, IA, NV, NH and the one Congressional district in NE to get to 269-269.
Tina – I might have to refi again!!!! I have a 10 year at 3.25%. Would like to find a 7 year fixed if possible. At 1.75 or 2% it would be worth it.
Check aimloan.com, md.
Cory – The Americans are trying to have a discussion. Bug off.
Or amerisave.com
Let me chime in with my daily post that PA and MI can be won. You only have to look at the recent RV polls to know that.
Now we see states like MN, WI, NM and OR that in the 4 to 6% range in RV polls. At the start of the campaign or actually before the real start of the campaign.
Not a single Romney ad or campaign appearance and MN is down to 6%.
Did I mention we have had the longest period of +8% unemployment since the great depression? Did I mention that the only reason its not the longest period of +9% unemployment rate is that Obama’s adminstration cut 3 million people from the labor pool.
It’s ironic that unions & leftist orgs are calling for a boycott of Marriott hotels. Marriott has never been a great favorite of NumbersUSA, either.
#31
Please. You people can’t tie your shoes without me telling you how to do it.
Tell us about the Grits’ revival, Cory. Stick to what u know & love.
The quality at SUSA has obviously gone down-hill. How can they say with a straight face the Obama is ahead by 5 in Florida and ahead by 6 in MN at the same time?
Obama below 50% and only up 6 in MN?! Don’t get me wrong, I still think MN will go Obama in November but this shows his weakening support, btw I LOVED “dark Knight Rises”
“How can they say with a straight face the Obama is ahead by 5 in Florida and ahead by 6 in MN”
good point, that FL poll from Saturday had me scratching my head
As soon as I saw that there was an 11-point swing zero/Mack, I knew right then it was krap. No need to look any further. That’s just stoopid.
Cory
Why do you refuse to mention your beloved Grits? Ashamed of being a socialist, r u? Or did you go all the way over to the Dippers now? What the hell. Might as well put on the hammer & sickle. You know you want to, Grit-boy.
The blame Bush meme is still alive, disregard my previous post. According to the Newsbusters site, over the weekend, the un-msm are blaming Bush for the CO tragedy.
I thought Obama was NOT running negative ads in CO for the time being?…
Especially when he was here visiting the victims?…
Saw at least 3 of his Romney singing ads yesterday…
Seems inappropriate to me but what the hell do I know…
Every polling organization produces a crazy poll every once in a way. FL SUSA is clearly one. By themselves either result is not out of line with other polls that have been done. Mack and Obama have been ahead in other FL polls. Together they strain the brain.
Yet MI, OR, NM, NV and now MN have recently been place in that 6% or lower range in recent statewide polls. That’s too much to ignore. You can say maybe MN or OR or NM or MI should be within 6% right now is one thing. Yet all three of them showing dramatic moves from 2008 means something is happening.
Call me crazy, but I don’t put a lot of stock in State Polls. Their samples are to small and easily skewed.
If Romney is to or three points ahead at the time of the election then Florida and Ohio and Virginia will be his. If Obama is ahead by that much the same is true for him.
In other words a three point race makes today’s battleground states blue or red and it makes leaning states into battleground states.
JPMorgan cuts 2Q GDP forecast to 1.4% from 1.7%
28. I am not worried about NC, FL or IN or the NE district — they are going red this time.
The point being is that Romney can lose Ohio if he wins, VA, CO, NV, IA and NH.
It’s not unrealistic.
BTW, we have seen polling from CO and NV that shows Romney in striking distance. I believe he will win NH and IA.
269-269 is a Romney win.
where are the state polls that show a romney lead? obama leads in every state poll that’s been released!
Cory’s shoe tying lessons:
1. Take the left shoelace in your left hand.
2. Take the right shoelace in your right hand.
3. Take the middle shoelace…
Cory wears velcro shoes.
Courtesy of my facebook, here are the kind of voters we have to deal with:
“Here I am voting to elect people who will probably put this state further in debt because the people who I believe could be the bastards we need right now to make the tough financial decisions are also the ones who are anti woman’s rights and anti marriage equality. Marriage equality and reproductive rights are more important by a long shot, I just wish it did not come with such a bitter after taste. Is it impossible to get elected as a fiscal conservative with socially progressive views???”
These people think that abortions and gay marriage and government funded health insurance are basic human rights and that those are more important than keeping the country from driving off the fiscal cliff, sending us into depression, throwing millions into poverty, hunger, and homelessness. But as long as gays can marry, we will be A-ok.
33 – PA won’t be won. I don’t want people to be fooled this time.
The middle shoelace only exists when I’m on mushrooms…
So I was at a conference in Canada 3 years ago and a Canadian economist was crowing about how the US spends 16% of GDP on health care while Canada spends 10%. On and on.
Then a guy in the audience asks the following question:
“Are you factoring in all of us Canadians who go to the states for care when we don’t want to wait on the Q or are concerned about the quality of a particular specialty here”?
Dead silence from the economist for 30 seconds. Then he said, “that doesn’t matter”.
RAS
Romney up 46-43 this morning.
Back up among independents.
51 – Are you sure they weren’t R women from the Philly burbs?
“Gosh, my Dad was a racist so don’t I have to vote for Democrats?”
Well, the good news is Penn St won’t be hit with television ban. The bad news is that after these sanctions, they will be unwatchable.
Geez, they may as well have just given them the death penalty. Only Fifteen scholarships per year and no bowl for 5 yrs? How can they possibly recruit?
Cory, as HHRs geek of the week, I gladly announce we don’t need you anymore.
http://m.ign.com/articles/2011/09/08/back-to-the-futures-self-tying-shoes-are-real
So get lost!
The Republicans maxed out with Bush in 2004 in PA and STILL lost by more than two points.
As of now I say we lose Pa by between 4 and 5 points. Not the wipeout of 2008, but you just can’t lose the Philly suburban counties AND get clobbered in Philly – the math doesn’t work, and I think that’s what MD has been tryng to tell us.
#55-Phil
Good Morning. What about the other Ras data?
MD – I am tempted to bet you about PA. I am reluctant to do so for a few reasons:
1. I tend to be the kiss of death for anything I support. I can look at 2 teams I don’t care about and pick one to win just for fun and it will lose.
2. You will start at $10k and call me a p*ssy. Also, if Obama wins I need to hold on to the money.
3. If we bet dinner then we actually have to eat dinner together.
I’m still thinking about it.
Based on these polling results, I see Obama winning by 10 points
“55.RAS Romney up 46-43 this morning.”
Dave said to ignore RAS, so I will
What are they putting in the water supply in MN????
Phil what is O’s appv in Ras?
We mustn’t be too harsh with commie cory,because beneath that exterior of hyperbole, sophistry, and bravo sierra, you just might find a real genuine a$$hole.
Phil – we will make ground in the burbs. Significant improvement in Chester, Bucks, Berks and several other counties. However, it won’t be enough to win. Even the Romney campaign has figured this out from reports.
Corbett has now become a drag on the R’s. No one wants to hear that but it is true.
IP’s repatriation is going a lot smoother than Eph’s.
I might be coming to MD’s side on this PA is lost thing. Romney’s own team rather compete for MI & WI then PA. I think we’ll do MUCH better then we did in 2008 but actually win it? I’m not so sure now
btw per Ras, PA Senate race is a D+11 race among likely voters
RAS
48-45 with leaners
Approval/Disapproval
49-50 -14
45/53 with independents.
The 10 year briefly touched 1.395%.
Wow. I mention that Romney can win PA and both Author and Romney immediately give up on the state. I really am a jinx.
#66
Well, if there’s anybody who knows a thing or two about finding a$$holes…
Dow is down 220 points.
Bitter – I would love to be more optimistic about PA. I see a 2 to 4 point loss. It doesn’t help that cardboard Casey is running and against someone who seems intent on pissing off R women in the burbs. (Jul loves him so you know that is true).
“Dow is down 220 points.”
already?!
Author – there is 1 wildcard and that is voter ID. However, Nutter has already said that they will ignore the law.
Only in today’s America.
Great Scott Brown ad:
http://youtu.be/oqDIjGsBEP8
MD – Jul thinks that all of Pennsylvania is the 5 square mile area that elected him. If only the GOP had nominated a true conservative to send a message!
Roubini comments on the worsening economy:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48281577
You could add about 3 points to any romney poll,but then you must subtract 4 points due to voter fraud.
From the Food Stamp President:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48281252
Poverty on the rise.
Latest on Cruz-Dewhurst down here.
Dewhurst is spending millions. His ads are everywhere – 90% negative. He’s just trying to overwhelm Cruz on the airways. Haven’t seen any polls, but my contacts say there is absolutely NO enthusiasm for Dewhurst. None. Also, his negative ads have gone on for six months – same ads BTW he did months ago. People have sort of built up an immunity to them – tuned them out.
I suppose by sheer volume, the ads have made some difference, just not sure how much. My wife and I will vote two for Cruz this week.
MD – They need poll watchers in Philadelphia. Are you up for the challenge? You can beat people up while I call the Common Pleas Judge fielding complaints.
#57:
Well, they can’t. At least, not in the ranks of top players.
Honestly, I thought they were gonna get the Death Penalty. And, it would have been worse. SMU has never really recovered from it, even though they got hit with it, 25 years ago.
They have poll watchers. They wear black berets and have clubs.
#82:
ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………
Phil- There were 2 Black Panthers in a city of 1.5 million people. 2! I don’t even know why they bothered. It was a 90% Democrat polling place anyway.
Yup and the AG covered that one up, but you know Zimmerman is a racist, because he is white.
Wait a minute, there is no evidence that he is racist.
(I make no comments about his guilt or innocence, leaving it to a trial to decide his fate).
The worst AG ever. Would like for a member of Congress to arrest his arse.
Tina – Holder should not have dropped the case but I am tired of this myth about armies of Black Panthers rampaging across the city.
I did not see an army, only 2, whose case should not have been dropped, BL.
I think you have to take every poll with a grain of salt. An IBM time clock can 100% measure Phelps winning a race. The start buzzer goes off and the race ends when people touch an electronic pad. Polling is closer to judging gymanastics or ice dancing. There is MOE, polling techniques and who is doing the polling that impacts the results.
Just saying that the state polls are showing something happening.
I don’t want to beat a dead dog (even a mad one) but if NM, NV, Iowa, MI and MN are 6% or less in statewide polls then PA is very close. States that are very close are winnable.
Brandon said “2% chance Romney wins PA”.
That’s about the same odds as a top ranked golfer making bogies on the last four holes and losing a major. Or Tiger Woods being 0-15 in any stretch of Majors.
Tina – I didn’t mean you.
No, No, No…the Panthers are at Pitt
or Charlotte
I heard there are Panthers in the NHL (that sport that Canadian teams suck at now).
so the markets are gonna suck today huh?
The only Canadian team I care about are the Maple Leafs, and they’ve sucked since before I was born…
The MN GOP in its post-Franken era is PAH-thetic. Actually it is so far beyond salavgable. You mean to tell me that after the Coleman/Franken debacle, they can’t get anyone to run within 20% of Klobucher. Talk about lack of vision and death of a brand. Sounds like the California GOP.
Rdel, Brandon was too busy using his varying fake handles. Ever since he joined the Teacher’s Union, he has moved to the left.
Downfall of Brandon, was when he said Newt would be the nominee after he won South Carolina.
Yes I suspect the Markets will be in pain today as Euro Ewe (prounced like PU) is the news of the day.
Mnw, do not bother with cory 101%. His online degree at Waterloo, has him 50k in unpaid student loans
I don’t think that PA is for sure a lost cause for Romney. If the election is reasonably close, then Romney loses PA. But if Obama implodes nationally to the point where states like MN, NM, OR, WA and MI flip, and states like NJ and ME are within 3 points, then I would say Romney probably wins PA.
Penn is just so frustratingly similar to IL in many ways.
In IL, it is not the suburbs that ruin the state in POTUS elections, but the City. At ough not to crack when the Rats give out Smokes and Gubmint Cheese in the city Neighborhoods
The dead don’t smoke or eat.
If Obama’s reelect number stays at 44 or 45% that is blowout and Romney will win states like Pa.
The truth is that Obama’s reelect number is by far the most important number in all of these polls. Far more important than state polls which tend to not make much sense when you consider the internals and registered voter national polls which have skewed voter id numbers.
I know that I just am using Rasmussen’s numbers — but he has the only likely voter poll out there. And guess what, when Gallup switches to its likely voter screen I bet it will reflect Rasmussen’s numbers.
Here is the daily Paladin/CFP POTUS grid, with states in descending order of GOP strength. Moving up are PA and MN, and moving down are IA and OH:
Lock R: (112) UT OK WY ID KY KS AL AR TX AK LA SD MS WV
Safe R: (55) ND NE SC TN GA AZ
Likely R: (24) MT IN MO
Leans R: (15) NC
Wobbly R: (42) FL VA
Romney: 248
Wobbly D: (49) IA OH CO MI
Leans D: (62) NH NV WI OR PA NM MN
Likely D: (12) WA
Safe D: (25) ME NJ CT
Lock D: (142) CA MA IL DE MD RI NY VT HI DC
Obama: 290
Truly, a bastion of objective poll analysis:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
If you read his first article, he now includes a map that excludes Rasmussen polls. His reasoning? The polls tend to show Romney doing well.
Yet he has no problem with PPP Polls that are outliers, and lousy polls that use RV’s.
There are a lot of Catholics in Pa. They should be paying attention to this. Because of the feud with the church on contraceptives, more Catholics may vote for Romney throughout the country.
President Obama’s Covert Zeal for Abortion
Barack Obama has never said that. From his first public office, he has been an advocate for abortion on demand. He led the fight in the Illinois State Senate to deny protection for newborn children who survive abortion attempts. These children are U.S. citizens under the Fourteenth Amendment. And just as too many states denied “equal protection of the laws” to black Americans under a century of unjust Jim Crow laws, Barack Obama denied protection of Illinois laws to newborns in the Land of Lincoln because they had been targeted for abortion. It is tragically ironic that a disproportionate number of these late term botched abortions are performed on minority women.
http://townhall.com/columnists/kenblackwell/2012/07/21/president_obamas_covert_zeal_for_abortion
Barrett has turned on electoral-vote bad, lol
#91 – He’s pretty damn lousy, I’ll give you that!
He should resign
but to Barrett’s point, if that doesn’t show bias from him I don’t know what will. Election Projection and even silverfish have been less bias in their projections
#113 – I used to love that site. I liked the methodology and I absolutely love the way the map is presented.
But it’s a useless tool if he’s just going to throw polls away on the basis of “they support they republicans more”
This guy has become a complete joke:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
FOUR polls from FL have come out in the last 10 days or so (Rasmussen/MasonDixon/Purple/SUSA) but this guy conveniently ignores the first three so he can use only the SUSA poll and thereby color Florida medium blue (Likely D).
Other times, this guy will average all recent polls if the last poll of a state has Romney leading.
Susy, I don’t think I’ll cave to abortion. Ever.
It may be the only issue that makes me a social conservative, but I’m dead set on it.
I don’t know what to say about gay marriage. I f*cked up mine pretty bad, so I feel like I don’t really hold any clout in that area
lol…I posted 117 not knowing you guys were posting those from 111 – 116
#117 – DW, did you see my posts? He’s made an entire new page that’s dedicated to calculating the averages without rasmussen.
Great map concept, but horribly implemented
Election Projection is a fine site. And, Scott is definitely a Conservative, for those interested.
#119 – Haha, great minds think alike
here is the wording from that clown at electoral-vote:
“Nate Silver of the New York Times analyzed a large number of polls and pollsters after the 2010 election and concluded that the polls of Rasmussen Reports, whose subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research is the house pollster for Fox News, were highly inaccurate and strongly biased towards the Republicans. In contrast, PPP, which the media often (incorrectly) label as a “Democratic pollster” were more accurate and actually had a tiny bias toward the Republicans. Many people saw this news story and asked me to not to consider Rasmussen’s polls. I have always resisted because in principle, Rasmussen is not a partisan pollster, that is, he doesn’t work for candidates as many pollsters do. I don’t want to be accused of picking and choosing among pollsters, so I have always included his polls and will continue to do that.”
PPP (D) not a democrat pollster? With Jensen OPENLY cheering for the Drats?
Unbelievable. Up is down, right is wrong, true is false, light is dark, evil is good.
Barrett – It sounds like your marriage broke up when Obama supported gay marriage. Coincidence?
Phil
I just read that early voting starts today in Texas.So with about a week to go,what are your perceptions on the state of the Republican Senate race between Dewhurst and Cruz?
112 – that is utter nonsense. The Catholics in PA are, by and large, just going out of habit. They are NOT strong on the doctrine.
Unless I am ordered to marry a guy, I have bigger issues to worry about. Gay marriage doesn’t break into my Top 20 issues.
But the worst part is the way he arbitrarily implements his own methodology. My Paladin/CFP grid is honest and straightforward. I do not make exceptions to alter the grid to show what I hope it to be, it is what it is.
Scott,
see post #84
I don’t think Scott has anything to do with the site being dicussed now.
It may be the only issue that makes me a social conservative, but I’m dead set on it.
….
Good for you, Barrett.
#124 – I see what you did there!
I actually a pleasant date planned for tonight.
With a woman.
Who comes well equipped.
DW – he has no methodology to speak of. It is whatever favors Obama. Why even bother with the site?
#131 – Was that a sarcastic or supportive “good for you”?
Unless I am ordered to marry a guy, I have bigger issues to worry about.
…..
Like Klansman and Confederates? You seem to post a lot about them.
MD – Even though most Catholics don’t care about the bc issue in their own lives, they do not like an outsider like Obama telling them what the rules should be (even if they don’t follow the rules). It’s like Animal House – “You can’t do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges.”
The countryis slipping into a recession, markets are tanking and some of us believe Obama will pull it out. SUSA beleives MN is a 6 point race and FL is a 5 point race. Ridiculous. The obviious will become obvious soon. This guy will be wallopped.
#131 – Was that a sarcastic or supportive “good for you”?
…
Nope, I share your sentiments.
I didn’t know you were so sensitive about Klansmen, HD.
I was responding to Barrett in 118.
#138 – excellent
Bitter is actually most concerned with who stole his grey goose
Actually I’m pissed. My father bought a bottle of it and we were going to have drinks this weekend. My crazy sister found the bottle and drank it all
Look out, Barrett. Howard Dean is cranky and looking for a fight.
#126…MD…this is no ordinary presidential race. The Catholic hierarchy throughout this country will be very engaged in this election. The bishops said they object to the plan’s retention of the “nationwide mandate of insurance coverage of sterilization and contraception, including some abortifacients.”
“This is both unsupported in the law and remains a grave moral concern. We cannot fail to reiterate this, even as so many would focus exclusively on the question of religious liberty,” the statement said.
Consumer Metrics will be out with their monthly analysis on Friday. I expect it to be gloomy based on their daily data from the last 18 weeks. The daily numbers just aren’t any better, and their numbers on per capita income continue to be in slight decline. What growth there has been they point to college loan money and money freed up by refinancing. They point out that neither is sustainable.
It’s foolish at this point to say that MI, WI, MN, and PA aren’t “winnable.” They are. However, if Romney wins any of those four, chances are he doesn’t need them, because I he probably wins OH, VA, IA, and FL before any of them. Win those 4 (plus pickups in IN and NC, of course), and Obama can’t win.
Of the four, MI is the closest, and the only one I would currently consider to be in the toss-up category at the moment. Demographics here are favorable to Romney. The state’s population has declined about 1% since 2000, and a huge portion of those losses were concentrated in counties like Wayne (Detroit) and Genesee (Flint). Those counties–along with the Detroit suburbs of Oakland and Macomb–were Kerry’s biggest source of votes in the state. (In 2004, about 1 in 4 Kerry votes came from Wayne County (Detroit).)
Oakland and Macomb are huge prizes and were near 50-50 in 2004; the electoral importance of Wayne and Genesee have diminished somewhat. Romney has potential to outperform Bush in both–he piled up huge margins versus Santorum in Oakland. That, coupled with slightly depressed turned in Washtenaw (Ann Arbor) and Ingham (East Lansing), if the college kids aren’t as agog over Obama as they were in the past (and they won’t be!), could make the state genuinely competitive. If I were Romney, I’d focus on those Detroit suburbs (forget the Philly suburbs), as well as racking up big numbers in heavily GOP Kent County (Grand Rapids).
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/judd-gregg/239387-opinion-heading-toward-a-sept-surprise
on that MN poll, the GOP is under-sampled, it’s D+6 (38D/32R/28I), in 08 it was D+4 (40D/36R/25I)
on that MN poll, the GOP is under-sampled, it’s D+6 (38D/32R/28I), in 08 it was D+4 (40D/36R/25I)
oops, double-post, my bad
Interesting poll on Minny. But that’s still a pipe dream–even with T-Paw.
I was responding to Barrett in 118.
…
I thought it odd you downplayed the Panthers, it was only 2!
How many Klan have you seen in your area since 08? How many blocked voter access?
Some of your posts read like excerpts from a Southern Poverty Law Center release.
Just an observation.
Btw, has anyone in the msm nailed down the recent alibis of George W. Bush and Bristol Palin? The shooter in Aurora *was* wearing a mask, after all…
Friends,
Trust in Rasmussen’s national poll. Although he wasn’t the “best” in 2008, 52-46 is quite close to 53-46, as he was in 2004.
Additionally, the best part of today’s national poll from Rasmussen is that it is 48-45 Romney with an outlier that raises the approval numbers to 49-50.
Frank
looks like I have to put this note to add to my last comment: no I don’t think MN is going Mitt in Nov., just saying it’s an interesting poll on a usually quiet polling day (Monday)
#84- Phil
Thanks. So I guess the Nolan Ryan endorsement of Dewhurst will not change the outcome!
Good post on Hotair about Minny by Ed Morrissey:
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/07/23/minnesota-in-play/
#146/147 – Author, do you think that puts MN in the tossup column?
oops forgot to read 153
The MN poll has me wondering now…when was the last time RI was polled?!!
Good stuff, Frank.
I share your belief in the RAS national numbers whatever they happen to be.
His methodology is solid as proven by the last two election cycles.
@156 I have a rule that any state where the last 30 days average of LV polling shows a margin less then 7pts is a tossup this far out from election day. (I’d decrease it to less then 4 as we get closer though). So based on that i’d have MN as a tossup on my 270 to win map. But do I think it will last in that category? i’d be shocked. I’ve been treating MN as a sure Obama win in Nov and will continue to do so unless something dramatically changes.
I will never understand vacating wins in NCAA sports…Joe P. lost 13 years of wins…they never happened.
Late is August, when the GOP Convention starts…people will tune in, and this is when many will see Romney in a new light; a man who has the experience and competence to creating new businesses and jobs. Officially being the presidential candidate also brings in a lot more money for Romney.
It like the song, We’ve Only Just Begun” (Carpenders)
And when the evening comes, we smile
So much of life ahead
We’ll find a place where there’s room to grow
And yes, we’ve just begun.
Minnesota is the longest drought for the GOP, right? 1972 I believe?
#162…*it’s like…
@163 yes, freaking MA (last in 84) & VT (last in 88) voted GOP for Pres more recently then MN has
I also disagree with “forcing Obama to spend money in MN” b/c by definition it would require spending money there as well.
Howard Dean – The Klan is filled with vile scum. No exceptions. They are filth and have no redeeming value. If that makes me a radical to you, then I am honored.
161…so will current NFL players who went to Penn State have to update their profiles to show that they went 0-48 in their college career?
stocks bounced back a bit but DOW still -136, what a bad start
SoHope – I guess the BCS now has to calculate its rankings based upon the number of players arrested after a game.
“Well, we were going to rank _______ #1 but the rape allegation aginst the cornerback dropped them to #3.”
#169 – Clearly Bush’s fault
so will current NFL players who went to Penn State have to update their profiles to show that they went 0-48 in their college career?
What’s the big deal. Columbia’s football team is pretty much like that every year.
#162…oh dear me…correction…song by “Carpenters”
last 13 year’s of Penn St football – Zero rushing yard…zero passing yards…last in the NCAA in defense…
Sounds like dook football
Howard Dean – The Klan is filled with vile scum. No exceptions. They are filth and have no redeeming value. If that makes me a radical to you, then I am honored.
….
Are you having a conversation with yourself? That was in no way a response to what I posed.
Do you work for Holder? Your posts/statements seem eerily similar, at times.
No I am not saying Romney should campaign 24/7 in MN or divert millions upon millions of dollars there. Not even sure how I would rate it. Probably lean D right now. +6 looks alot like lean D. I might add that tons of races that lean D or lean R in July end up being won by other party.
Here’s my two concise points.
1st based on recent polls Romney has a path to 350 ECVs. If every state that is lean D(MN, MI, WI, WA, OR, NM etc) or tossup or lean R turn to him we get to 350 ECVs. Not saying this will happen but lean races certainly flip to the other party.
2nd as noted you have to take polls one by one but if we have seen nearly a dozen states move towards Romney. NH, MI, WI, MN, Iowa, CO, NM, NV, WA and OR. Something is happening and most of this movement has been in the last month of so. The worst of the econ news has not hit many of these polls.
Not declaring victory but there may shifts out there that are certainly worth noting. I believe in running scared and certainly never pull up and take a victory lap until you win!!!! So those are my points.
I wonder how many people are calling their bookies today to get back the money they lost on PSU’s “vacated wins.”
SoHope, I don’t know enough about the rules of college football. I know this obviously affects Penn State’s status, but does it affect the players in the last 13 years who ran the yards, made the catches, etc?
Wobbie troll has been eerily quiet today…so far
Ok, Howard. Thinking that the Klan are vile scum makes me a supporter of Holder.
Bitter – you do go to great lengths to always mention that it was only 2 black panthers.
The fact is that it was a very clear cut case of voter intimidation and Holder decided not to prosecute because they were part of a minority class. Imagine the outrage if 2 KKK members stood, robed, outside of any polling house in the country? Of course, there would be outrage. There should be! There should have been outrage about the black panthers as well. WTF?
Bitter, Your diversions aren’t very good.
I’ll re-post the questions:
I thought it odd you downplayed the Panthers, it was only 2!
How many Klan have you seen in your area since 08? How many blocked voter access?
Penn State is lucky it wasn’t worse. Paterno looked the other way while a child rapist continued on for years.
That no longer qualifies as opinion. It is fact. I think they should remove all his victories.
Regarding the black panther situation – It’s news. We heard about it, we know about it, there’s not really anything we can do about it (not trying to sound like a defeatist).
I think everyone here agrees that for multiple reasons, Eric Holder should not be our AG.
Cream Soda????!?!? Anyone?!??!
183 – HD – none that I know of but if they had been they would be in jail today, deservedly so. The Panthers should be in jail as well. I have never understood Bitter’s fixation on “it was only 2!”. That makes no sense. Voter intimidation is voter intimidation.
So, next time it is 4. Then the time after that, 8? Then 50? Where is the line?
I said that the Panthers should have been prosecuted. I mention that it was only 2 because it was only 2. I just think that people should be accurate. I know that does not fit the narrative here. As for blocking access, they obviously sucked at it because I think that polling place voted 105% for Obama anyway.
There are Klansmen in PA. I can’t say how many, if any, were at the polls because I don’t live in those areas. The Klan does have a presence in the Lehigh Valley.
I’m trying to imagine Obama making a concession speech the day after the November election in which he says something like “I called governor Romney and congratulated him and pledged a smooth transition of administrations”
No matter how much I try, I can’t see him doing that. I just can’t. It’s impossible to visualize this narcistic, mean spirited man being gracious in defeat or for that matter, even acknowledging it.
Bitter, You don’t have to answer, I’m over it.
I was personally harassed by Farrakhan’s klan on a college campus.
I didn’t take the verbal bait b/c I knew what they wanted to do. In a just world, he would have been prosecuted for a hate crime.
“No matter how much I try, I can’t see him doing that. I just can’t. It’s impossible to visualize this narcistic, mean spirited man being gracious in defeat or for that matter, even acknowledging it.”
I believe out of all the incumbents who were denied a 2nd term, the two Adams were the only ones to refuse to go to the victorious challenger’s inaugurations. I would not be shocked that if Romney wins, for Obama to come up with an excuse as to why he can’t make it and move out a day earlier.
MD – So, your point is that people can just outright lie to make a point? Fine. There were over 1500 Black Panthers actually shooting people at the polls that day. Feel better?
The 2 Black Panthers should have been prosecuted. What they did was wrong. See how easy it is to post the truth and draw the correct conclusion.
We don’t live in a just world. It’s better than it was, but not as good as it should be.
If this were a just world. James Holmes would not be appearing in court with orange hair. He would be strapped to the top of a flagpole while the Aurora community took turns throwing rocks at his genitals
No matter how much I try, I can’t see him doing that. I just can’t. It’s impossible to visualize this narcistic, mean spirited man being gracious in defeat or for that matter, even acknowledging it.
Comment by Phil
His TOTUS is not programed for that.
I don’t know, Barrett. I know UNC got shafted over a fired assistant coach connecting player with agent without the knowledge of others on staff and we fired him, self-reported and cooperated. We lost a couple seasons and a bowl win…vacating is a stupid punishment.
Bitter – who lied? It just seems like you go out of your way to diminish the crime. And it was a crime.
MICHIGAN
Romney 46
Obama 46
500 Certain to vote
Paladin/CFP – 7/20/12
I wonder if Obama will continue to cheer for his favorite election year team, the “Nitally” Lions?
DW I believe Paladin was the 1st to show Obama’s weakening support in MN, like you say, always a step ahead!
184. MD, it cant get worse. BIG TEN also excluded Penn State from revenue as well.
PSU is dead for at least a decade if not more. They have given us the death penalty just under a different set of names and “corrections” — the program may never recover.
Sucks for an avid college football fan like myself, but what can I do about it……
198…yes, we had it 49/42 for Obama in MN in the first week of July.
MD – I have a truce with one poster who used to go on about the Black Panther’s influence at the polls. Since we both agree that they should be in jail, I don’t understand what we are fighting about. I am in this city 5 days a week. I love it here and I hope I can move back when my children graduate from college.. The politics suck but I survived it before.
I feel sorry for people in the suburbs who think the city is incredibly dangerous and filled with violence on every corner. They are missing out on alot.
His excuse would be, “the election was stolen from me”. Simply, he will never acknowledge that he was rejected. He consders himself deity, and thus it would be impossible for America to reject him unless the election was rigged.
He really believes that. He’s that much of a megalommaniac.
I do feel bad for current Penn State players…had nothing to do with this whatsoever, and yet they could very well lose out on the chance to make the NFL.
Todd – explain that to me. I didn’t read about that. What revenue sources are they excluded from? If I were the incoming President, I would just shut down the program.
Look up the rankings of where Penn State stands with public schools academically. Very high. All focus going forward should be on that. I still can’t believe they will play football this year.
They also have gone nuts at Penn State with the whole diversity thing. There are kids attending PSU who can’t read. NOT making that up.
SoHope – From what very little I know about vacating, it sounds like it would hurt the players more.
Paterno’s legacy is destroyed, wins or no wins.
What we need to do is break the spirit of this school and let them know that their precious legacy isn’t so precious.
They all like a bunch of little golem’s there
“we must protect the precious!”
Well, this isn’t surprising from RAS
51-41
Likely voters DO NOT think gun laws should be more strict.
The gender gap is even worse than I thought. Men reject that point of view by thirty points. Women actually agree they should be made stronger by 49-42.
Women operate on pure emotion. Not rational creatures at all.
Then, those kids don’t make it and PSU gets raked over the coals for not being fair to minorities. That is next. PSU is RACIST.
I can predict this stuff with ease.
http://www.mcall.com/sports/college/psu/mc-big-ten-penn-state-sanctions-20120723,0,5270485.story
MD, they are taking away the bowl revenue. Personally, at this point, they should shut it down — you cannot be competitive with a 50% cut in scholarships and no bowl eligibility.
They could go 3-9 every year, honestly.
#203 – I don’t feel for them. There are people putting Flowers at the paterno statue (before being fenced off and removed)
and kids running around screaming “Joe Pa”
They’re obsessed, and they need a dose of reality. If they’re false football legacy is more important to them than countless children being raped, then the students are brainwashed, and to me, are no better than Paterno and company
You are right Barrett. He legacy is not tarnished, it is destroyed. It will never be repaired.
Really, how can they possibly play football this year?
Barrett,
They live in a bubble there. I am not excusing the behavior just explaining it. My POV is extremely clear.
MD, I agree. I think people who aren’t in the bubble have this figured out
BTW – Ray Didinger, a HOF sportswriter wrote a series of articles on the troubling aspects of the culture surrounding Penn State and the unbelievable influence that Paterno had on the community – in 1981!
I remember my political science professor told me that Joe Paterno was selected to be an Elector for the Electoral College gathering….I forget which year…might have been 2000
“Based on these polling results, I see Obama winning by 10 points” bunu
bunu when you troll you have to write things that are not silly on their face
next time say 2 points and maybe some would believe you
lisab – that is EPH
#215…MD…Barett…what is the “bubble?”
Insert SSQ joke here…
Penn state didn’t lose half of their scholarships. They went from 85 to 65. Devastating for a competitive division 1 program, but they didnt lose half.
rasmussen
PA sen
Casey: 49
Smith: 38
#219 – and my mind starts to wander in regards to how dirty I could make this joke
Casey is under 50 so for an incumbent that means…
Sorry, can’t even fake it. Casey in a walk.
Susy – time to consult your urban dictionary book again.
Since I went to a small school, I never became a huge college football fan. If you want to watch student-athletes, drop down to I-AA. Lafayette-Lehigh or Villanova-Delaware is fun to watch.
If only Sam Rohrer was the nominee. He would lose by 20 because he doesn’t have Smith’s money, but he would SEND A MESSAGE!
crap is it really already 1:00? For a monday, it’s moving by incredibly fast
I am on vaca the rest of the week. Not sure why I even bothered coming to work today. This is how a Democrat must feel all the time.
MD, I enjoy my job just so I can piss off Democrats
“I am on vaca the rest of the week.”
You’re on a COW?
Gun violence has no borders — as evidenced in recent weeks with mass shootings in Toronto and Colorado — but laws in Canada and the U.S. differ, prompting at least one Ontario lawyer to say “cultural difference” is the best defence for Americans caught with weapons.
He said the best defence is to claim cultural differences.
“Saying ‘I forgot’ doesn’t sell too well in our court system. [We think], ‘How can you forget you had a loaded handgun in your car?’” Goulin said.
He called loaded handguns “very frequent” in the U.S. and “standard additional equipment” in homes and cars.
“To me, the cultural difference is so very obvious,” Goulin said.
Goulin said Canadian courts accept “cultural differences” as a legitimate defence. He said in some cases, “upstanding U.S. citizens” have been caught with a handgun at the border because they live in high-crime areas where owning and carrying a firearm is “normal” or “justifiable
The Hill Poll: Voters blame president most for slow economic recovery
Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.
It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy. Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. Twenty percent point the finger at Wall Street, and 18 percent cite former President George W. Bush.