Polls From NC and SD
We have a new poll for the gubernatorial race in North Carolina that shows Republican Pat McCrory’s lead over Walter Dalton down to 5%.
GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen)
Pat McCrory (R) 46%
Walter Dalton (D) 41%
Humorously, Rasmussen decided to hide the dates and number of voters for this poll behind the paywall, but assuming it was done at the same time as the Presidential poll he released yesterday, this poll was done August 1 among 500 likely voters. We also have a new poll from some polling organization called Neilson Brothers Polling that claims Barack Obama is within 6% of Mitt Romney in the state of South Dakota while the sitting Republican congresswoman is only ahead by a single percentage point.
PRESIDENT – SOUTH DAKOTA (Neilson)
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%US HOUSE – SOUTH DAKOTA – CD AL (Neilson)
Kristi Noem (R-inc) 47%
Matt Varilek (D) 46%
The article I linked above does indicate the head of this polling firm actually ran for the South Dakota State Senate as a Democrat just four years ago. Unless I missed it, I did not see the dates for this poll in the article, but it does say it was done among 540 registered voters.
UNO
Uh, Dave. You need to edit that SD Pres poll. you gave me a heart attack with it showinf Barry up 5.
Any Ras numbers yet?
mcVain took SD with 53% last time.
Hey, IP – “McVain” was a war hero. You can dislike his politics but show some respect. I don’t care if you served in the military. You did nothing compared to what he did for this country.
US leads Lthuania 12-6 in the first. This is too close. The US may only win by 30.
Polipundit has a poll on who should speak at GOP convention. Not on the list is Artur Davis. He gave a seconding speech for Obama at 08 Dem convention. He’s since switched parties and supports Romney. He should give a seconding speech for Romney this year–the symbolism of that is just too delicious to overlook.
To be clear, I thank IP for serving. I would expect a vet to show more respect.
Didn’t know there was a NT.
46/44 today
47/45 w/leaners
Hope – please don’t post any more Ice Cream Man videos. I had a bad night.
The NRCC YouTube video spots launched yesterday and are aimed at West Virginia’s and California’s third districts, Iowa’s first, Maine’s second, and Ohio’s 16th. The organization will spend $10,000 in each of the five districts and expects to run the ads until that money runs out.
http://www.clickz.com/clickz/news/2196725/republicans-spend-usd50k-on-youtube-ads-targeting-congressional-districts
Could be an Indiana presidential poll coming today.
It’s coming tomorrow.
Wow–Serena Williams is squashing Sharapova in gold medal final. She means BUSINESS.
8.To be clear, I thank IP for serving. I would expect a vet to show more respect.
Comment by Bitterlaw —
There are many of us vets who have no use for his political antics,in spite of his ordeal in Vietnam . He wasn’t the only one incarcerated. There are many things you don’t know about the individual in question.
Response to Tina–yes I believe that the next two unemployment reports should be really bad. Its a shame the BLS made +400K in adjustments to numbers. Romney campaign should pick up on that but harping on 8.3% unemployment is also a pretty good line.
Yeah Bitter, our closet gay friend, has top secret insider information about “McVain”.
Brandon – If IP is saying he was a POW then I apologize for not thanking him more for his service. I can’t stand John Kerry and I suspect he overstated his military record BUT he did serve. His Winter Soldier tour was a disgrace but I can not take away what he did before that. As a diabetic, I was not allowed in the military. I regret that.
Why do homosexuals have to be discussed or mentioned in every thread around here?
Are people that obsessed with it or maybe they aren’t being honest with themselves?
Howard Dean – I have deided that the only sex life I care about anymore is mine. The rest of you can have at it. Men, women, goats, racoons, whatever. As long as they are of age (whatever the age of a goat and racoon is for consent I don’t know), have fun. I just don’t wnt to see it.*
*Unless it is 2 or more women or involves Kate Upton.
I have always respected the William sisters and yes they asked Bill Clinton for a favor:
http://brian.carnell.com/articles/2000/clinton-gore-venus-williams-is-your-enemy/
IP – are you referring to the stories I have heard about when he was a POW? No way to know if they are true so I won’t repeat them.
You are right HD. The problem is that with CFA, it has been a big issue and them lisab comes along and in”flames” the situation.
Couldn’t help myself.
Bitter – I am 99.9999% certain that the Phils will not work out a deal with the Dodgers and Lee will stay with the Phillies. For those of you who don’t know, Lee was put on waivers and the Dodgers claimed him.
In the back of his mind, I wonder if Hamels is thinking, “damn, I could have had $30m for 7 years there?”
If I were CFA, i would have sent out water to the protesters.
I appreciate your understanding Bitter Shyster. Please excuse me, my boyfriend needs help with the wood.
MD – I think Cole is thinking:
“I have more money than my grandchildren can spend. I have a guaranteed deal. My World Series Ring sure does sparkle in the sunshine.”
Bitter – the Phillies still have only $46m to spend on 16 players next year. How do we get a starting 3b, CF and RF and fill all the holes on in the pen? They may be willing to go $10m over the cap but no more. So, that would give us $56m.
26 – Alright, it is getting old now.
MD- The other thing about LA is that they have a hstory of choking in the playoffs. I know there is a new ownership group and they seem to be going for it but something about a fanbase that thinks a game starts in the 3rd inning and ends in the 7th does things to a player’s soul.
Yeah old and wrinkly. I might need to find a younger boytoy.
I agree Bitter but they have won a lot more WS in their franchise history than the Phils. Been a long time since their last one. 88?
Easy, MD. Just offer Tampa Bay $56 million and ask for 16 of their players. You mightbe able to get of them for that price.
If MFG is around – have you looked at the stuff from Doubleline? Would be interested in what you think?
I would take any Upton and Eva Longoria.
35 was just a friendly shot at Author. He is the only Rays fan I know even though I know a lot of people in that general area all of them are from someplace else.
Kate Upton?
MD – I like when CHris Wheeler will come out with a stat like, “The Dodgers are 9 and 4 against the Phillies in playoff history.” As we all know, Black Friday weighed heavily on the monds of the Phils in 2009.
Did our friends at Obama loving RCP include the criminal PEW polls?
10 Facts You Didn’t Know About Olympic Gold Medalist Gabrielle Douglas
She is only 16 years old! Gets criticism because of her hair! (unbelievable) A devout Christian.
http://newsone.com/2028248/gabrielle-douglas-wiki/
Believe tennis should be screened for human growth hormone abuse
Rass Report
What They Told Us:
Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
The frustration in America these days runs deep. Just 14% think today’s children will be better off than their parents. That’s the most pessimistic assessment ever and the number is even lower among those with children at home. Worker’s confidence in the jobs market has fallen to the lowest level of 2012. Read More
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Romney 46%, Obama 44%
Gap Narrows in North Carolina Governor Race
The gap has narrowed between Republican hopeful Pat McCrory and Democrat Walter Dalton in the race to be North Carolina’s next governor.
28% Conservative on Both Fiscal, Social Issues
66% Say Formal Education Key to Success in Life, Not Street Smarts
Consumer Confidence Down, Investor Confidence Up
Yes the Pew poll was cited as evidence that Obama is clearly ahead. He has a 3 point lead. Of course the only leads in any poll above 2 points are D/liberal polls.
yup consumer confidence was below 65% last month. That’s like recession or worse level.
post 22
~~~NO
Thanks Rdel. RCP is a farce
You’re the farce.
speaking of football and isn’t it a small world
Jimmy Haslam III is buying Cleveland Browns for 1 billion dollars.
His Father founded Pilot Oil-truck stop operator.
Jimmy III’s brother is Bill Haslam, governor of TN
Jimmy III’s college room mate was Bob Corker.
In TN its a small world. Yes Haslam family have been very close to Baker family, Duncan family and the East TN GOP machine. Lamar Alexander has also been super close to Haslam family.
of course Haslam family is super tight with UT affairs.
“There are many things you don’t know about the individual in question.”
is he gay?
Is Syria Our Fight or a Re-Election Ploy?
by Kevin Craig
Read more: http://politicaloutcast.com/2012/08/is-syria-our-fight-or-a-re-election-ploy/#ixzz22alwuNKb
#14, Yes, 6-1, 6-0, serena. I would love to see Serena win the US Open and several more Slams. A major comeback from her injuries/sickness.
lisab – IP is a man of mystery. Well, he says he’s a man. He posts more about gays than even gay people do. Who knows?
Lisa B is obsessed with gayness.
“There are many things you don’t know about the individual in question.”
does he watch msnbc?
Washington(SUSA)
Obama: 54%
Romney: 37%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4c1a6bac-14db-4c7f-bd8a-c9bd8fbae726&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
I don’t know a lot about Doubleline MD just the name
” Well, he says he’s a man. He posts more about gays than even gay people do. Who knows?”
well if it was marv saying mccain has a secret, we would know the secret … mccain obviously secretly voted for army during the army-navy game
You’re a fan of Gundlach?
I presume IP was referring to McCains many episodes of giving the middle finger to conservatives
Are we doomed today?
Rdel, I agree with it being the next several months.
Stock market probably just wanted to rally, see it dropping back next week.
or IP could be referring to mccain’s black child
But that report with the BLS guess, is going to really come back to bite us in the next few months.
Why couldn’t we have had a broken convention?
*sob*
Susy,
I am heading to SF today and partying with some really leftist types (you know the ones that really support the Obumbler).
I have to go now.
Aka they are the 1% – I believe the person’s house is worth in excess of $30 million.
Bye gang.
Was just listening to Larry Kudlow’s radio show. He had Keith McCullough as a guest and he made a good point about the stock market and Romney’s chances.
As long as the market remains elevated (SP500 in the mid 1300′s), things will look better for Obama. That’s why Democrats pushed Bernanke so much for QE3.
If there comes a point where investors realize no QE is coming and the market sells off, Romney has a much better chance. When the SP500 hit 1270 in early June, it corresponded with Romney pulling even with Obama.
“Why couldn’t we have had a broken convention?”
well there is a good chance that romney will drop out before the convention because he is mormon and many republicans won’t support him
Stevie Wonder files for divorce, even though he isn’t seeing someone else
http://www.starpulse.com/news/index.php/2012/08/03/stevie_wonder_files_for_divorce_from_k
*sob*
Jeb!!
Total Recall? Forget it
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/03/showbiz/music/total-recall-review-charity/index.html?hpt=hp_bn9
Stevie has been pounding down the groceries lately wow…
not jeb
a sarah palin/rick perry ticket
they would win the republican base
Tina
no economically we are not doomed. Unless obama wins re-election!!!
There is a path to a return to the America way if we exhibit thrift, hard work and innovation.
Sadly the D’s do not want to reward any of those three items.
well it is hard for stevie to read the food labels on what he buys
Condi!
*sob*
Trump Says The Way President Obama Is Running The Country Is “Stupid”
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Trump-Obama-Stupid-Country/2012/06/15/id/442491?PROMO_CODE=F354-1
#55
The SYSA Poll claims that Obama is ahead in Eastern WA. That would be like Obama’s winning Idaho.Two,the poll claims that the O Man receives 20% of the Tea Party vote.Paint me skeptical.
“no economically we are not doomed”
what does doomed mean?
we have faced worse.
actually, if we simply kept deficit spending to say $200 billion we would eventually grow out of our debt problem.
now … getting the deficit spending to $200 billion would get people a little upset, but it is not impossible
Kristen Stewart Is Not Welcome At Rob Pattinson’s Cosmopolis NYC Premiere!
Have to say that I truly believe that in the end Romney will win by 4-5%. But some of these state polls do have me worried.
Will Ferrell Is All Busted Up Over Kristen Stewart & Robert Pattinson – CONAN on TBS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuwgoIFgQpY
i think the tax issue and the economy will play a big part
almost certainly president obama will turn to romney during the debate and say something like,
“the people who are struggling to send their children to school and put food on the table deserve to know what you paid in taxes”
romney needs a good answer
#84: the reason they are struggling to put food on the table is your dumb-ass policies and my tax return wont fix it. Your defeat will.
The Missouri primary is this Tuesday. Sarah Palin is in Missouri campaigning with Sarah Steelmen this weekend.
“More to the point Mr President is why has unemployment stayed over eight percent for all four years of your disastrous failed administration?
You are in charge here and the people of this country will not tolerate any more of your ridiculous deflection from the true issues facing this nation.”
Obama Economic Advisor said that “the real Unemployment number is only 8.254%” to which a Republican party spokeswoman countered “23 million people struggling to find work isn’t a rounding error and the White House attempt to argue shows how out of touch they really are”. I would think this would make for a good Romney TV add somewhere.
Can someone here who knows a heck of a lot more than I do about this stuff please explain to me how Obama wins Ohio with his approval rating at 44% according to Gallup?
#82 Scooter Boy,
I agree with your estimation of a 4-5 point Romney win.
I am not concerned with any of the state polls. The state poll samples invariably estimate a partisan turnout out model showing the Democrat percentage of the sample exceeding the 2008 actual percentage. 2008 was a perfect storm of bad circumstances for the GOP and unlikely to happen again for several cycles. Most certainly it will not happen in 2012. I suspect that the national turnout will be close to Rasmussen’s model, 34.9R/34.0D/31.1I. A state by state 2008 turnout model for the GOP is a bit opitimistic, but it is not beyond the realm of fair possiblility.
Scooter Boy,
Ohio goes red this year………the same color as Ohio State’s home game jersey.
If we win, it won’t be anything like 4 or 5 points.
We have a chance to sqeak by if we can keep the Party ID on election day at D+2 or less.
A new study out states that the Media coverage by ABC,CBS,and NBC of Romney’s overseas trip were 86% negative in their reporting. MSM strikes again.
Scooter boy, Obama will not make 50 percent in OH unless he trips up Repubs going to the polls
Jan,
Despite MNWs objections, I like Steelman. She’s surging but Brunner is still the frontrunner.
Either would be Conservative.
So would Akin, come to think of it.
May as well have a new, photogenic, Conservative, female Senator from MO
Rasmussen:
August 4, 2008: 47-46 (R/D)
August 4, 2012: 46-44 (R/D)
Frank
Frank, Is that posted just for information or are you trying to make a point?
#96: don’t know what numbers are those. After both conventions in Sept 2008 RAS party ID was R/D. 33/39
It’s the head-to-head numbers.
And in August it was D/R 39/33. In August and September there was some see-saw between McCain and Obama but after that Obama was constantly in the lead
No changes in gallup today whatever.
#7 GeorgeIllinois
You are brilliant! Artur Davis speaking at the republican convention would be a stroke of absolute genius!
I am sure if Artur Davis is willing to speak at the GOP convention, he will. I think he wants to run for Congress in Virginia as a Republican. Maybe for the old Tom Davis district. My guess is he’d make a good candidate.
91. Agreed! Obama’s goose is cooked in Ohio.
After the financial meltdown, the dye was cast. It was over. Before that, I honestly thought McCain would win.
Still not seeing Romney as the favorite in this election. I am trying but as I look at things state by state (I ignore dailies until after labor day), I just have a hard time seeing Romney prevailing. He certainly was our best choice by miles in this election compared to the alternatives. I also think he is running a decent campaign. We will keep control of the House by a safe margin and have a 50/50 shot at the Senate. Today, I would give it 290 to 248 to Obama with Obama winning the pop vote by maybe 1.5%. JMO and hopefully my viewpoint changes. I have to say that I have felt this way for months and nothing has happened to alter that view.
Romney will win popular vote- 54-46
MD
I was the same about McCain, as to feeling he would prevail until the Fall of ’08 financial mess happened… especially after McCain made that major “I am suspending my campaign” faux pas.
As for Romney, I have more measured optimism than you do. There are days I do think he has no chance, mainly because of some disappointing polling or the audacity of the dems. They have so many squeaky wheels and low down dirty tactics, which kind of blow past the republicans, catching them off guard, making them look like amateurs. But then, an event like last Wednesday happens, and you see people coming out of the woodwork for simply a gimmick of support, and it opens up a sense of wonderment about how many angry people there really are out there! Even the Cruz and Murdock victories add to a mounting realization in noting the numbers of ‘people wanting change’ who are under the radar. And, in this regard, I think we may have better odds than we oftentimes realize of a Romney win.
106 – No way. I already have a bet with Pitch where the only way I lose is if Romney beats Obama by 8+.
I am happy to add you to the list as well if you like.
janz – I see this is a very, very close election and my opinion certainly could change. As of now though, I just don’t see a victory. It is kind of like PA on a national scale. I can see Romney doing much better than McCain and still losing by 3 or 4.
Still, there is some time left and things could happen that would have me change my mind. If I was asked to make a prediction today, that would be my prediction.
OK – got a great workout in and now can go to a BBQ and eat with minimal guilt.
Oh, I was NOT implying that Romney would lose by 3 or 4 nationally.
MM
I confess I have no clue how Palin’s whirlwind gig for Steelman will affect the GOP primary.
I’ve always has a visceral dislike of Palin, as well as the Steelmans.
Tell u this, tho. If my candidate of preference Brunner loses to Steelman, I’ll be her biggest supporter. mnw does not do that maelstrom number about, “Since Lugar lost, I’ll vote for Blue Dog Joe now.”
Not me.
I am more in Kits camp, more like 47 to 53. I dont think it will be close once Romney has a chance when people are paying attention (after olympics and convention) to define himself as credible. Obama is a disaster with a vision independent americans dont buy. Tie obamas america to europe people are doing it on their own already. Easy to understand and it will resonate.
Do you guys want me to post the video of peach cobbler man?
#113…So Hope…why do you want to do that?
Romney has so much to use against Obama in this campaign – he has not even scratched the surface. After Labor Day the onslaught by Romney and the super PACs against Omama will be unmerciful. Romney will go for the jugular unlike McCain who ran the most wimpy campaign imaginable.
I basically agree with what MD has written. The dynamics clearly favor Romney and we all know what those are. For whatever reason though, Romney hasn’t been able to covert that into strong poll numbers, especially in the battleground states.
I think there may be two reasons why we continue to be surprised by the polls. First, I think Romney’s campaign has hindered him. In terms of organization, operation, and fundraising, Romney’s got a very solid effort. Where he’s been hurt is the messaging. I don’t think he’s crossed the threshold test with many voters yet.
Second, maybe our assumptions about Obama’s standing with the voters were just incorrect. No incumbent should be able to withstand what’s taken place, but here he is ahead. When I wrote earlier about the pollings giving us hints this was essentially what I meant. He’s just in a stronger position then logic would suggest and that is a worry for me heading towards November.
I have not written this election off in any way though. Three months is a long time, but Romney and his campaign have got to step up their game. In the primaries, he said he wasn’t willing to set his hair on fire to win. Maybe that’s the proper course, but Obama is willing to lie, cheat, and steal to win.
By all accounts, Romney has been more energized in fundraisers this week than he has been on the stump. If he takes that energy out to the trail, he’ll be in much better shape.
Folks- If Romney fails to win in November, we may as well call it a day and move out of the country as no Republican will ever regain the White House again- it would take some extraordinary events for the nation to be in worse shape than now, and if it chooses to re-elect the most incompetent and blatantly liberal president in history, we’re screwed.
117
I agree.
If we had a true and honest press the country could have a chance.mOf course we have anything but.
“Less than 24 hours after a man espousing conservative and libertarian views surprised the state’s political scene by winning the Democratic nomination, the Tennessee Democratic Party disavowed him, saying he’s part of an anti-gay hate group.
The party said Friday that it would do nothing to help Mark Clayton, 35, who received nearly twice as many votes as his closest challenger in Thursday’s seven-candidate primary, winning the right to challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Bob Corker in November.”
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120803/NEWS02/308030124/Senate-nominee-Mark-Clayton-disavowed-by-Tennessee-Democratic-Party-?odyssey=nav|head
I again respect everyones opinion who don’t agree like I do that Romney will pull away with a 4-5% point win. All I can say is I was not involved much and did not follow politics until I saw this Country going to Hell under Obama and I just get the feeling that there are many more like me who can’t wait to go to the polls to vote this guy out. I honestly don’t think the polls at this point are picking up on that dynamic. I could be completely crazy but that’s the feeling I get. I just think when people go to the polls they aren’t going to want 4 more years of this. Just my opinion.
Just a drive by to link my weekly blog post on the Presidential race. Feel free to skip this of course. Bye.
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2012/08/race-for-white-house.html
SPOILER ALERT
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Team USA 99, Lithuania 94
“LeBron James was the difference, taking over down the stretch for a series of quick scores in the clutch as he finished with 20 points on 9-14 shooting.”
Apologize if somebody already posted this but supposedly the Kiss in at Chick-fi-a was a gigantic bust.
116…Robbie…We know Mitt Romney is in a much better position than McCain was, in terms of organization, money, appearance, an a energized electorate, etc. In 2008, close to the day of the election, McCain quit campaigning when the large banks crashed, and Obama was still standing. Now, in 2012, the R’s are energized to go to the polls much more than they were in 2008. ooo will not get the number of voters in got in 2008, so we have a great opportunity to win. I don’t know if you are a Christian or not, but
much prayer is going forth from those who realize this is the last
chance to save our Republic and to protect the Constitution and the Judiciary from being taken over by liberals and marxists. There is more at stake than ever before.
#124…good news! Glad it failed!
#122….Thanks, Corey….I plan to read it!
bad news for Chick Fil-a.
It may have lost my business!!!
One store at 1PM today had no spots to park plus their was an overflow to nearby lots. Plus there was +30 cars in drive in window line. I will not wait 30 minutes in line for fast food.
At 2:30 the other nearby Chick Fil-a had a full lot and only 7-8 cars in drive in. But who wants to eat lunch at 2:45?
The crowds at the local stores are a concern to me.
I like reading all the optimism about Romney on this board. And, for all I know you could be right. In kind of an open ended way, this election could really surprise people!
However, I look at the social progressives as more and more of a Darth Vader kind of player — they will cross every limit line in order to win, and the press will hardly ever report it. But, should the GOP go toe-to-toe, in the same vicious fashion, it will be splashed from one end of the country to the other, vividly portrayed as ‘evil,’ or some other term. Like bio mom has said, if we only had more “true and honest press the country would have a (decent) chance”………..
#128 rdel
125
Susy I. Have a deep faith to. But Ithink God allows our free will and so, although I pray I do no ask for a Mitt win but instead pray that our electorate has the graces to choose wisely.
Robbie. I respectfully disagree that Obama is ahead in this race. If polls had plus 8 republican samples showing us way ahead would you then say wow Romney is way ahead? I know I wouldnt.
#120,
I read a bunch of stories deriving from the link you posted. It looks like liberal groups are basically labeling every organization that makes significant noise against same-sex marriage a “hate group.” I am not suprised. But I was expecting to see some David Duke-type stuff not just affiliations with groups that fight strongly in favor of traditional marriage. According to libs, that makes you a de facto hate group. I’m sure the Coalition of African American Preachers is a hate group, too, isn’t it? The Rev. Owens has almost 4,000 more black preachers on board. This issue could cause real trouble for the Democrats.
Re: 133
Correction: It’s the Coalition of African-American Pastors. (not “preachers”)
I certainly think, as I have said many times before, that the race is tied. I would say to my good friend MD that legit state polls show Romney a path to 350 ECVs. I said a path, not a prediction, as 5-6 points behind in states like MN or OR or NM or where ever is nothing in August.
I can see Romney winning nationally by 3 to 6 % and if that’s the case the ECV votes will be there. Whatever moves the national % by 3 to 6% to Romney will move more then enough states to him.
The RNC will be Romney’s one big chance to move the polls. He needs to win a lot of current undecideds at the convention. I don’t know how he can achieve that, but it’s got to be his best opportunity.
#131…bio mom…I am so glad you are praying too. I am praying wisdom for Mitt and an uncovering of anything fraudulent at the polls and/or counting of ballots.
#136…Jeff…remember…ABBO…they will vote for Mitt.
Pretty good point above
Explain to me how Obama wins OH with a 44% approval rating?
135. I agree the race is pretty much even at this point. That’s why I see the Undecideds swinging one way or the other the closer we get to election day and I just don’t see them sticking with Obama because I think there are no (or not many) people Undecided about Obama.I think they either go to Romney or stay home. Most will go to Romney. These people are not paying attention to the race right now, but what they are paying attention to is the economy. If the economy doesn’t start picking up and these people start feeling better about their own state of affairs they are not going to vote for Obama. That’s why Obamas approval numbers in most states according to Gallup are not good. I continue to believe most pollsters in these state polls are way oversampling democratic turnout. That’s why Romney needs to stay on the Economic message. Keep pounding home how bad this Economy really is and how he will fix it.
And you don’t think there will be backlash on gay marriage in states like OH?
Obama is firing the base up and losing the middle in the process
I don’t think the race is tied at all
The country wants to get rid of Obama but wants to see Mitt sell himself to them as a credible President
Once they get a good look at Mitt, I think Obama is done
#122 Thanks Corey for the reminder and the link…great posts!
Survey USA
Washington Governor
D. Inslee 48
R. McKenna 45
+-4.4
Thought Experiment:
Suppose Mitt Romney were the incumbent President of the United States today and had all of Obama’s current numbers
What would be the opinion on this board?
The opinion would be, 100%, that he was doomed to defeat
Two models. Assuming the candidate with the popular vote lead wins the electoral vote race (90% chance I’d guess) I’d say it will be close but not quite.
Consider this. Obama won by nine and a half million votes in’08. Looking at the state by state popular vote projections (example: Romney getting 46% of the Michigan vote vs the 40% McCain got, increasing the Texas vote a couple of percent, adding 4% in California, and on down the line state by state) I see Romney coming about two and a half million votes short out of 130 million cast – about 2% short. That’s what I get when I put all the state totals together.
My other model, the one I’m hoping for, has Romney winning by a point or two and it’s based on the Rasmussen Party ID model with the GOP having close to the same party ID on election day as the Democrats. That’s only happened once (2004) and normally, I’d say it just isn’t likely.
However, RAS got the party ID right last cycle and that gives me hope that he nailed it this time.
Election day, if the Party ID is even or D+1, Romney wins. D+2 it’s 50-50. D+3 a 1 in 4 chance, and beyond that, no chance.
That’s how I see it.
Put it this way
If Rasmussen is right on party ID Obama is done right?
What are the reasons to believe hes getting it wrong?
Why would it shift back if he has it right?
I trust him more than D+18 horsesh*t
Romney calls Obama’s Ohio military voter lawsuit an outrage
If most of the military voted democratic, what are the odds that Obama would be pulling this?
So Phil even in your worst case scenario with lets say a +4 or 5 dem pary ID Romney would probably lose by about 2% is that right? Again I’m just trying to understand this. If that’s the case some of these state polls showing double digit more Dems polled than Repubs and can only get Obama a 5-6 point lead then are actually showing the race tied or Romney ahead if we are using your worst case scenario Dem ID advantage. Would that be correct? Again I’m a novice at this so please excuse my stupidity if I’m not understanding it.
Scooter in my opinion the state polls are being dummied up and the national polls are accurate Rasmussen & Gallup
It is basically impossible for Romney to be behind in swing states by these margins and be tied or a point ahead nationally
As an example, Pew has D+9 sample in OH a state that almost always votes more Republican that the nation by several points
If Mitt were really down 6% in Ohio he’d have to be down 8%-9%^ nationally
They are dummying up the state polls to keep Captain Communism’s fund raising from collapsing
To be a bit more clear, the Pew poll showed a D+9 sample with Obama winning the state 50%-44%
And he has a 44% approval in OH
Absolute motherfuucking dummied up lying horsesh*t
Now lets say the race is tied 45%-45% in actuality nationally
The electorate is R+1 as per Rasmussen and OH goes 2% more R than the nation as a whole and undecideds split 3-2 for Mitt (a conservative guess)
Therefore:
After the undecideds split OH becomes:
51%-49% (ie undecideds go 6% to Mitt 4% to Obama
The electorate is R+1 therefore:
52%-48%
And OH is +2% more Republican than the national vote:
54%-46%
Pretty consistent with a 44% approval rating don’t you think?
I have consistently on this site over the past year read where almost every poster here has stated that it is almost impossible for an incumbent to be re-elected with national approval of 46% or below. Now I look at Obamas approval ratings according to Gallup in the swing states of Iowa 46%, Florida 46%, Virginia 46%, Pennsylvania 46%, Nevada 45%, New mexico 45%, North Carolina 45%, Ohio 44%, Colorado 43%, Missouri 41%, and Indiana 38%. (added Missouri and Indiana even though I don’t think they are swing states this year). My question is, does the same rational not play out on the state level as it does on the national level or am I just missing something here?
The efforts of Obama’s goons to try and suppress the military vote in Ohio is a clear act of desperation on his part and the last nail in his coffin. The Seal Team 6 Super PAC is going to have a field day with this in Ohio. The MSM can’t suppress it. Obama is done! Gone! History!
Correct. Worst case we lose by around two and a half million votes which is 2%. I looked at it state by state. We gain from 2008 in every state from 2008. Problem is, we need to average about 4% more in every state. Some like Michigan and Wisconsin, that will be easy. The problem is that in states like Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, etc there isn’t that much room to grow over the 2008.
Again, I’m assuming a popular vote win will translate into an alectoral win (almost always does).
Gaining 4% in California and NY alone cuts the 2008 popular vote margin by 1.3 million votes. Of course, my point is that all states won’t move uniformally.
I’m holding out for the RAS Party ID model (R+1 at the moment). If that does indeed occur then it means my state by state 2008 to 2012 movement above was too conservative. If that happens I’ll be a happy man.
As I said, RAS got it right last election. Here’s hoping he is nailing it now.
132.Robbie. I respectfully disagree that Obama is ahead in this race. If polls had plus 8 republican samples showing us way ahead would you then say wow Romney is way ahead? I know I wouldnt.
Comment by hugh — August 4, 2012 @ 4:33 pm
I understand your point, but even a reworking of the polls to a more likely turnout still gives Obama the edge. And a la 2008, I’d rather be ahead in the polls than in the position to say the polls aren’t accurate.
Everything I see, read, and hear from the candidates suggests Obama leads. Now that doesn’t mean I think he’ll win, it just means, right now, I think he leads by 2-3 points. I continue to find that astounding considering the economy.
145.Thought Experiment:
Suppose Mitt Romney were the incumbent President of the United States today and had all of Obama’s current numbers
What would be the opinion on this board?
The opinion would be, 100%, that he was doomed to defeat
Comment by Sobbie — August 4, 2012 @ 5:14 pm
The big difference is Romney would have the media totally aligned against him. Obama’s got the media working for him.
The hand wringing, the gnashing of death, the gloom, the doom… Please people do something productive with your time. Obama is finished.
#157,
Robbie,
Another big difference is that Conservative voters would objectively see that the economic numbers of the last three years have stunk. This is a depressingly weak recovery. Conservatives would be more apt to accept that reality even if a Republican were presiding over it. On the other hand, liberals truly believe that the economy has performed spectacularly under Obama becaue civilization did not come to a crashing halt. Liberals, in general, have much lower expectations for America, so they are pleased with the “great progress” of the past three years. I truly believe that’s the fundamental difference between the majority of posters here and the average liberal. We believe America is capable of doing much better.
I wonder also would a VP selection help his cause like how much will Portman help in Ohio or Rubio Help in Florida and some of the Southwestern states. I think these state polls are bogus that Ohio where it is a 9% D avantage is a good sampleling.