Romney/Akin Lead in MO (Plus New Politico Poll)

Unlike most Monday mornings of late, we actually have a new poll this morning and it comes from Survey USA and the state of Missouri where Mitt Romney holds a slim lead in the presidential race while Todd Akin is ahead by double digits.

Mitt Romney (R) 45%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%

Todd Akin (R) 51%
Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 40%

Jay Nixon (D-inc) 51%
Dave Spence (R) 37%
Jim Higgins (L) 5%

This poll was done August 9-12 among 585 likely voters. We also have a new poll from Politico and George Washington University that has the national race showing Barack Obama with only a slim one-percentage point lead.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 47%

This poll was done August 5-9 among 1000 likely voters. That is quite a difference from the media polls towards the end of last week.

Posted by Dave at 7:42 am
Filed under: General | Comments (245)

245 Responses to “Romney/Akin Lead in MO (Plus New Politico Poll)”

  1. Big Joe says:

    El Numero Uno boyeeeeeeeee

    Ryan’s budget on trial

    The people deliver the verdict on Nov 6th.

    Fasten your seatbelts and don’t forget the Dramamine.

    Weird MO poll too.

  2. explosiveliberal says:

    The MO numbers look better for Obama because Survey USA calls cell phones. This is a trend now I think, pollsters are getting 5 or 7 more points for Obama overall if they include cell users. It explains RAS polls being less favorable to Obama.

  3. rdelbov says:

    SUSA tends to be a bit erratic as it does not hardcode its R/D voter models. Unlike PPP.

    So 37-37 for a party split is fairly heavy D. I might add indies are a bit liberal. The senate poll, however, shows how low AirClaire is.

    National poll shows what I have been saying for a month or so.

    1st national race is tied
    2nd Obama will outspendt
    3rd economy is getting worse and the mood will continue to improve for the GOP

  4. explosiveliberal says:

    Politico did use cell phones (good) and likely voter (good) but had a sample of 78% white voters (not gonna happen, more like 74-76). Overall as a liberal I’m going to say this poll is good for Obama since it is an improvement from the last time when it was Romney up by one.

  5. rdelbov says:

    Layoff reports for the day:

    +1000 jobs cuts coming to Google Mobility. +4000 worldwide with +1000 in USA:

    Fedex is cutting its workforce through buyouts:

  6. Todd McCain says:

    Obama is going to get beat by 10 in MO. Mark my words. When was the last time O went to MO, anyway?

    Same with AZ. Both are of the table this time for O.

  7. rdelbov says:

    Liberals do not like to see depressed AA and hispanic voters?

    Who is picking and choosing its polls that they like now? Conservatives are on fire to vote while democrats seem unwilling to even walk across the street for Obama.

  8. explosiveliberal says:

    6. yes Obama will lose MO even if he whens all the other battleground states, I agree. But this poll agrees with the other national polls about where the race is at. Among RV’s though……..

  9. Todd McCain says:

    AND Im going to say your cherrypicking….all the reputable pollsters have this a close race: RAS, Gallup, Battleground….Did anyone see the 15 K that showed up in Wisconsin for R&R last night. Grand Excitment.

    I want Romney to hammer Michigan, WI, and IA.

  10. explosiveliberal says:

    7. I’m not worried about turnout, with early voting and provisional ballots (yes in FL they have these if you don’t have an ID you can still vote) AA turnout and Hispanic turnout will be the same as in 2008 if you factor in demographic changes countering less interest in 2012. I think Dems will awaken more and more as we get to October. Overall I agree with Politico on this one, I see about a D+4 turnout year.

  11. EML says:

    10 – Gallup’s party ID poll by and large has found 2012 to be even more republican than 2010. No way its D+4 this year.

  12. explosiveliberal says:

    In a 50/50 election with Paul Ryan, Romney’s only chances in midwest are still just Iowa and Ohio, not buying the WI flip idea for a second. Iowa scares me though.

  13. Todd McCain says:

    Im not so worried about FLA as I am OH. With the convention there and strong conservative excitement, I see the state going for Romney. Seniors are one of Mitt’s strongest subgroups, I doubt see them changing because of Ryan.

    I give Mitt FLA and IA. WI will be crucial if Mitt cant win OH. Can Ryan pull it in? Who knows. With the GOP successes as of late, I dont see why we cant win it.

  14. rdelbov says:

    All you need to know is that Romney is ahead by 10% among indies in this poll. Legit polls show this over and over again. The junk polls showing 10% leads among indies, RV polls for the most part, are total junk.

    GW poll appears to be +6D–can’t find all the crosstabs.

    I might add so far new AA and hispanic voters are no where to be found while so far AA & hispanic voter turnout has been way way down from Jan to Aug 2012. I can only report what is happening as opposed to wishful thinking.

  15. EML says:

    12 – keep closing your eyes to everything that’s happening around you. Obama has been a disaster. His economic policies have led to the worst recovery on record. His leadership is non existent. Romney and Ryan are true leaders. How many times do the voters of WI need to come out and tell you they are sick of democrats? IA and WI both going R in 2012.

  16. Todd McCain says:

    I still see OH caving to Romney as the economy thorns Obama’s side. Just like in the primary. I remember Rick Santorum had 12-20 pt leads in OH — how did that work out for him?

  17. 1)pay no mind to the lib

    2)once again facts destroy Wobbie’s poll trolling. this LV polls proves how this race is the close/tied race it’s been in months. as i’ve said Obama wins today, but his lead is so shaky and weak that could change

    3) this SurveyUSA poll shouts outler in all 3 polls. but I guess it’ll be a good poll to average into the LV polls and get a more conservative estimate of Romney’s win there

  18. sir Albert says:


  19. Tina says:

    The GW poll was done from 8/5 to 8/9. What do you think of this? Seems kind of long.

    Of course, this poll is now dated, but contradicts the Faux and other garbage polls from last week.

  20. rdelbov says:

    I take SUSA for what it is. Their polling is very erratic and seems like a coin flip nearly every time.

    The reason is they do not tend to hardcode their polls for P/R or idealogical goals. They have set goals for female/male plus race but other then that they let it fly.

    So they could poll MO today and find it 37-37 while next week its 43R-36D.

    I hate to beat a dead pollster or a dead horse but PPP only comes up D heavy and liberal heavy because they plan it that way.

  21. Michael says:

    PPP releasing Ohio and New Hampshire polls tomorrow, opinions?

  22. Tina says:

    I only believe the RCP average. LOL

  23. @22 Tina did you catch Wobbie, the same guy who slammed Dick Morris’ “real polls” telling us that Bill Kritsol’s “private polls” we’re showing a big Obama win? this guy is such a hypocrite and when you call him out on it the answer is the same “I know you don’t like me, but please stop lying. You didn’t read me right.”

  24. EML says:

    21 – PPP?
    OH – Obama 48 Romney 43
    NH – Obama 51 Romney 44

  25. MFG says:

    PPP prediction?

    Obama +7 in OH +6 in NH

  26. MFG says:



    Great minds think alike…

  27. PPP prediction: Obama+4 in OH, Obama +6 in NH

  28. Phil says:

    PPP will show Obama up big in both states. Cunt on it. It’s how they planned it.

    I know these guys.

  29. Phil says:

    oops – count

  30. Michael says:

    I think Ohio will be a tad closer b/c of Ryan influence, he is not in the poll I believe but as they polled during the weekend there had to be some major influence.
    I think Ohio stays at 3% (makes them look better then Quinnipiac, anything to try to look better)
    And New Hampshire a 5-7% lead sounds about right for them.

  31. Tina says:

    AM, I really cannot pay attention anymore. Too many inconsistencies.

  32. voice of reason says:

    MI will go to Mitt also. If Ryan can sell his budget we could end up north of 300evs

  33. Phil says:

    Boy, they really hate Sky Queen in Mo. She makes Blanche Lincoln look strong.

    Akin will obviously cruise in spite of my earlier worries about Akin.

    When I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

  34. rdelbov says:

    +10% among indies nationally in GW LV voter poll.

    Watch PPP’s numbers for indies in OH and NH.

    I am thinking +16 for Obama in OH and +10 in NH.

  35. Scott says:

    #28- Phil
    PPP/Jensen will say that with the Ryan selection,Romney is losing Indies.Also,Evangelicals are abandoning Romney because Ryan’s hairline contains the sign of the devil.
    That is my prediction!

    (Phil,a bad typo in #28.)

  36. EML says:

    SUSA – MO poll

    In 2008, Gallup had Party ID in MO at D+11 (still a lot of ancestral conservaDems in MO). In the red wave of 2010, it was D+0. Now in 2012, they have R+4.

    Akin is up more with females than he is with males. Seems reversed.

    The Libertarian candidates seem to be taking away more from the D than from the R. Hopefully this holds up.

    SUSA’s “cell phone polling” is hokey. For landlines, they call people. For cell phones, they send a message to the phone (no calls). This would seem to me to grab a higher percentage of non-voters that won’t get screened out.

  37. Michael says:

    Ryan headed to Iowa today and Nevada tomorrow. This will big how he operates on his own.

  38. Michael says:

    Romney super pacs stepping up advertising in Michigan and Wisconsin, article in politico.

  39. Jeff G. says:


    But the filter kills j e n n a?

  40. EML says:

    My guess is that Obama picked up a lot of the anti-war, pot smoking, Paulbot/Libertarian crowd in 2008. Now…Gitmo still open, still in Afghanistan, drone assassinations, taking out OBL, unilateral bombing in Libya…these types aren’t voting Obama in 2012.

  41. Jeff G. says:


    I think (hope) most of those libtards are OK with killing bin Laden. But the rest of your point is well taken.

  42. Todd McCain says:

    Good to see Romney expanding the map — force Obama to defend PA, MI, and WI.

    IA and CO are going Red.

    IN and NC are gone.

  43. explosiveliberal says:

    41, Don’t use that word. This site is actually more civil than the other sites I go to, which are mostly liberal sites. That word cheapens any civil discussion.

  44. EML says:

    Libtard telling us not to call him libtard. Rich. You have to be pretty darn retarded to look at what’s going on in Europe and then advocating we take the same path.

  45. Bitterlaw says:

    I know 28 had a typo but the filter is a strange beast, indeed. At least it protects us from J enna.

  46. Phil says:


    Romney 47-44

    50-45 with leaners

    approval 45/53

  47. explosiveliberal says:

    44. Using that word doesn’t help you make a stronger argument about Europe. I’m not trying to be a jerk, its just an offensive word. I refer to republicans as GOP or republicans.

  48. Michael says:

    Great, I might start getting excited knowing that the RCP average for Obama is dropping

  49. @47 you know we can argue about who leads this race, but no one can deny O’s appv has taken a plunge this last week. Did the cancer ad hurt him that much?

  50. Tina says:

    Romney move ahead by 5 in Rasmussen.


  51. EML says:

    No need to make an argument about Europe, the facts speak for themselves. Liberal policies have led to disaster. If you think we need to re elect Obama and follow the same path, then you’re a libtard. Maybe when you grow up and think for yourself, you will see the error in your ways. For now, you’re nothing but a clueless libtard.

  52. Tina says:

    I get tingles when RCP uses Drat-plus 9 samples.

    Next, they need to use more of the private or internal polling. I know there is a difference between the two, much like brokered and contested.

  53. Todd McCain says:

    Meticulous Mitt had a great roll out for Ryan. Now — we need to get in front and STAY in front of the Medicare assault that is coming!!!

    One thing that has annoyed me with Camp Romney is there inability to sense when a barrage is coming when it is so clear — BAIN, Tax returns, etc etc.

  54. explosiveliberal says:

    Ok, someone help me out here, does it not cheapen this site to use that word? I can’t be alone here.

  55. Michael says:

    @53 if they are willing to call us republicans shouldn’t we show some respect and just call them democrats?

  56. DW says:

    Like I said here last night, I spent time working the phone and talking to social conservatives over the weekend to get a reaction on the Ryan pick.

    Specifically I called those who were wary about Romney and were not totally committed to vote for him. Every single one I spoke to in VA is now very enthusiastic. Same for other states I called like PA, TN. I finally had to get a report from the Ozarks in Missouri to find some holdouts who still don’t want no Mormon.

  57. Tina says:

    Obumbler is the only politician that has cut Medicare, $700 billion.

    They kept pounding this from what I saw that the Camp Obumbler is now forced to explain this.

  58. Tina says:

    I call them Drats and they need to be destroyed.q

  59. Tina says:

    Obumbler -Gaffe

    Ticket of the old and nasty compared to Romney Ryan, young and the dynamic.

  60. explosiveliberal says:

    Tina seriously?

  61. SoHope says:

    using the term libtard does just as much to make a valid point as you citing PPP polls.

  62. Tina says:

    Erskine Bowles: Ryan Budget Is “sensible … honest, serious”

    Ron Wyden

    The late 1990s budget agreement.


    All supporters of the Ryan budget

  63. DW says:

    And with the Rasmussen update, here is today’s EXTREMELY Clear Politics average of only credible likely voter polls:

    ROMNEY 48.5
    Obama 46.5

    BOOM – two point lead.

  64. Scott says:

    Ras has had the O Man’s disapproval at 53% or higher for the past five(5) days.
    Also, ObamaCare repeal/ no repeal is 56%/38% this week as compared with last week’s 50%/44%.
    Thanks for the Ras data.

  65. Tina says:

    Tina seriously?

    Yes, serious, your ticket represent the old and nasty.

  66. Bitterlaw says:

    Ok, someone help me out here, does it not cheapen this site to use that word? I can’t be alone here.

    Comment by explosiveliberal — August 13, 2012 @ 9:03

    Personally, I don’t use words like libtard, Marxist and Communist to describe liberals. However, Iwill call anybody (liberal, conservative, whatever) a mf-er, d-bag, moron, etc. as appropriate.

  67. EML says:

    Yes, libtard cheapens the site. Keep the discussion contained to masturbation socks, Jay Cutler’s ranking in the top 5 of qbs, and new age faith healers who are on the run from the government.

  68. Tina says:

    I no longer like the RCP Average.

    We must now only use private polling.

  69. voice of reason says:

    50 – 45 w/leaners. Obama better fill bank of america stadium to the brim. He may not get out of the mid-40s if he doesn’t start generating some excitement.

  70. DW says:

    This is the ticket of Smart and Smarter versus “you didn’t build it” and “STAND UP CHUCK!”

  71. @65 what a joke. Kritsol’s private polls show Obama up big

    – Wobbie

  72. Todd McCain says:



    This is when Mitt should stay 50 mil of his own money and just blast away at PA AND MI.

  73. Tina says:

    We are also facing the ticket that claim that there are 57 states and asthma patients need breathlizers.

  74. Barrett says:

    #70 – I no longer TRUST the RCP average

  75. voice of reason says:

    EML drop the Europe reference people like Europe ask Pitch. Use California instead.

  76. Bitterlaw says:

    EML – You forgot that Kate Upton is a big, firm, blonde beautiful part of our discourse.

  77. explosiveliberal says:

    67. Why is are strongest demo group young? In fact its the exact opposite in terms of age. The GOP right no runs strongest with the plus 50 crowd. Your argument can’t be used just because Paul Ryan is young. He may attract more young voters (we will see) but right now the GOP’s strongest group is older, white voters.

  78. SoHope says:

    But….but…pop shows Obama leading by 18%

  79. Tina says:

    You represent me, I never said the RCP average was the be all end all.


  80. SoHope says:


  81. Michael says:

    @63 no I am trying t get information on what people think on a poll, a none living or breathing poll. Us being mad at someone who were probably chased into an ideology or born with an ideology is not going to help explain while Liberals have bad connections in Europe @53 is the only one to explain logically. I don’t like liberals, I had to deal with a lot of them in the ghetto schools in Charlotte for 11 years but my mother (a conservative taught me through many church lessons to treat people with respect and kindness because we never know how long we will be here).

  82. Tina says:

    I only see two old men representing the Drats. One looks like he escaped from a mental ward too. The other is in over his head.

  83. IwantAnOpenConventionNotABrokeredConvention says:

    I only trust polls that use a D+19 sample

  84. MFG says:

    Use the proper term


    Thats what they REALLY are no matter what they call themselves

  85. future Wobbie post w/ link on how Mitt’s doomed in 3…2…

  86. Tina says:

    I only trust private polling.

    Rasmussen lean right.

    The others are centrists, but private polling is the best.

  87. EML says:

    Why is are strongest demo group young?
    Because young people are stupid, clueless, and indoctrinated by the public education system. They have mooched off of people their entire lives, and think that is the way the world should work.

    Once they get into the workforce (may never happen under Obama), have to work for themselves, get older and wiser, they become more conservative in their politic views.

  88. Tina says:

    Romney and Ryan need to go after $4 gasoline. How ridiculous.

  89. Michael says:

    @86 that’s a nicer term I could go along with that, I one time told my democratic grandma that she was a socialist.

  90. Bitterlaw says:

    A Mormon-Catholic ticket. LaZebra must be in shock.

  91. Tina says:

    Mitt Romney Gets Liberated
    By Kathryn Jean Lopez
    August 13, 2012 6:58 A.M.

    Having Paul Ryan on the ticket liberates Mitt Romney to be a little more of the data geek he is. And that’s a good thing. You saw this dynamic during Sunday’s 60 Minutes interview. We have seen Romney in his NAACP speech (I thought it a turning point) and his Poland speech (which an ad wisely returned to last week after a near media blackout), among others, articulate the big-vision thing voters need to hear from a presidential candidate. Ryan, as we have seen both from his work in Congress and this weekend, complements the forward-looking vision with optimism and urgency, and doubles down on the competence. And isn’t Romney’s “I love policy. I love solving tough problems” quote from last night such a direct contrast to the tone of the current president, who so often seems peeved the job is harder than he bargained for? Mitt being Mitt, with his “Young Gun” running mate, could just win this.

  92. Michael says:

    @89 hello I am not stupid, clueless, and indoctrinated by the idiotic public education system.

  93. Report: 10,000+ at the WI rally for Ryan

  94. MFG says:

    Tina you should do standup youre cracking me up!

  95. Robbee says:

    92 – I am extremely concerned that Romney didn’t pick an evangelical. Catholics have a very poor electoral history. Should have picked Palin or huckabee.

  96. SoHope says:

    I thought the bus tour was supposed to be VA, NC, FL, OH?

  97. Tina says:

    MFG, I was told that I would be best working as a Walmart Greeter, when I retire.

  98. pitchaboy says:

    After visiting the Monte Carlo casino and reviewing these numbers, MD is the one gambling. Romney by a handful, baby.

  99. Michael says:

    @98 they added Wisconsin.

  100. MFG says:

    Young voters by and large are morons

    Gene McCarthy, George McGovern, RFK, Gary Hart, Captain Communism

    One error after another

  101. EML says:

    94 – In general, it is true. That’s why 2/3 of the young vote went Obama in 2008. They have no idea how the world works since they have mooched off their parents their whole life. Kids who are raised right, taught right from wrong, and taught a work ethic don’t vote Dem.

  102. Bitterlaw says:

    MFG – The reason that I do not consider them communists is because they are not stupid enough to go for governmental ownership of everything. Why not? Because they know that all of those businesses would fail lie the Post Office and Amtrak. They need private companies to succeed so they can tax them and drain them. They don’t want to own everything. They just want to tax everything.

  103. btw we’re due for Purple Strategies polls

  104. MD says:

    Marxists is the correct term. They favor centralized gov . Boeing wasnt allowed to move operations! Done.

  105. IPSO FACTO MO FO says:

    29.oops – count

    Comment by Phil

    Freud would be amused.

  106. MFG says:

    Tina I’m thinking about the concession stand at the movies when I retire…

  107. as a young voter I must say the young are EPIC tolls

  108. EML says:

    105 – I’ve been checking them daily. Seems like they should have something this week.

  109. DW says:

    I am still stunned that I was right about the invitation I received a week ago inviting me to attend the rally in Norfolk at the battleship WI to meet the Republican Team, and that I posted right here it could be the event where the veep is introduced.

  110. btw Dave’s Orioles and my Rays seem to be in a battle for a wildcard spot

  111. IPSO FACTO MO FO says:

    89 hello I am not stupid, clueless, and indoctrinated by the idiotic public education system.

    Comment by Michael

    Freud would also be amused.

  112. MFG says:

    Oh I disagree

    Their end game for this country is Cuba or Venezuela

    The malignancy has intermediate stages to be sure, but Cuba is the endgame for them (and the press will cheer this every step of the way)

  113. MD says:

    Pitch – you need Romney to win by 8+. I am feeling as though I can’t lose that bet .

  114. MFG says:

    DW be prescient

    Good call

  115. Bitterlaw says:

    Tina – I don’t see you as a greeter. I think you would be better suited to store security:

    Warning. Shoplifters will NOT be prosecuted. Tina will deal with them.

  116. MD says:

    The only way I lose the ca bet is if Obama losses ca by less than 12. The way I see it, I have no downside and only upside.

  117. Tina says:

    Exactly, MFG, the Obumbler wants a national security force. I wonder why.

  118. Michael says:

    @103 thanks, I just wanted to make sure you weren’t saying that for all youth, a general statement can get some people fired up.

  119. Michael says:

    110 I can’t find their site for some reason.

  120. MFG says:

    The big next move is a gun grab

    Some “penumbra” will be found by SCOTUS for all private weapons to be confiscated

    Then the march to Cubaism can advance in earnest

  121. Tina says:

    PBS Jim Lehrer, first Pres debate, Oct 3 Denver…
    CNN Candy Crowley, town hall, Oct 16, Hempsted LI…
    CBS Bob Schieffer, third Pres debate, Oct. 22, Boca Raton…
    ABC Martha Radditz, VP debate, Oct 11, Danville VA…
    FLASHBACK: CROWLEY: Some Think Ryan Pick ‘Some Sort of Ticket Death Wish’…

  122. Tina says:

    Why a phuquin CNN moderator?

  123. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – Marxism is not defined just be control. It is defined by ownership as well. We just disagree.

    Why aren’t you on the beach (unless you are)? If you get bored, drive an hour to see the wild ponies on Aseteague (I can’t spell it). Your daughters will like that.

  124. Tina says:

    Who agreed to these moderators?

  125. DW says:

    MD – feeling better about Ryan yet? The more I think about and talk to people, the more I am solidly convinced Romney made the right call.

  126. MFG says:

    These people hate you they want you destroyed

    They want this country to become Cuba they will never stop

    Wake up

  127. SoHope says:

    PBS Jim Lehrer, first Pres debate, Oct 3 Denver…
    CNN Candy Crowley, town hall, Oct 16, Hempsted LI…
    CBS Bob Schieffer, third Pres debate, Oct. 22, Boca Raton…
    ABC Martha Radditz, VP debate, Oct 11, Danville VA…
    FLASHBACK: CROWLEY: Some Think Ryan Pick ‘Some Sort of Ticket Death Wish’…

  128. SoHope says:


  129. Bitterlaw says:

    The big next move is a gun grab

    Good thing I never spent money on guns. Now, if they try to seize my HD TVs I will be pissed.

  130. MD says:

    I hate the ponies unless I am betting on them.

    I just ran 4.5 miles. Headed to the beach in 45 minutes.

  131. voice of reason says:

    I like the term libtard. It’s fake but accurate.

  132. Scott says:

    Maureen Dowd,the NY Times old maid,finds the R&R ticket elitist and aloof. She is becoming more and more bitter and jealous in her older age.
    If you were Michael Douglas,would you have taken Maureen over Catherine Zeta-Jones?

    Me, HELL NO!!!!!

  133. MD says:

    127 – I will wait and see DW. I won’t endlessly drone on about my concerns. I’ll have an open mind.

  134. Bitterlaw says:

    I’ll have an open mind.

    Comment by MD

    That is not your job, MD. Play your assigned role.

  135. IPSO FACTO MO FO says:

    Full circle:

    Beginning times~~ Hairless,toothless,can’t walk,drooling pants crapping.

    18 to 22~~young skulls full of idealistic leftist mush.

    23 to 30~~Reality sets in to replace idealism.Must work to stay alive.

    31 to 55~~Can’t understand the new generation. Adjusts to mainstream.

    56 to 65~~Starts worrying about retirement.

    66 to ~~~ Joins the ranks of the grey panthers,willing to suckle at any gubmint tit available,returns to altruistic idealism .

    End times~~Hairless,toothless,can’t walk,drooling pants crapping.

  136. Bitterlaw says:

    I found video of MD’s run:

  137. MD says:

    Video didn’t load bitter.

  138. bio mom says:

    Glad they are not using Fox News. CNN has been more fair to Romney lately (seriously).

  139. DW says:

    Fair enough MD. I fully appreciate that every option had a down side to it. But when I compare Ryan’s to the others it does make a lot of sense. The attack on Ryan by Obama will have to be about economic and spending issues, not abortion (McDonnell), not perceived inexperience (Rubio), not going back to Bush (Portman).

    And when the arguement is about the economy and spending issues, Obama holds the short end of the stick.

  140. Howard Dean says:


    Ryan reminds me of Palin.

  141. Bitterlaw says:

    Try again.*

    *If it doesn’t load, it’s Baywatch star David Hasselhoff running in slom motion.

  142. EML says:

    Ryan reminds me of Palin.
    Shows some desparation from the Obama campaign. They can only hope to Palinize the VP in order to win. However, the media already perceives Ryan as an intellectual and will be unable to attack him on the experience front.

  143. MD says:

    Must be a licensing issue with the iPhone.

    Palin = Ryan? Lol! Ryan has been one of the few adults in DC and write an entire budget . The Marxists are so predictable. Tomorrow? Ryan = Bush.

  144. voice of reason says:

    Palin?? Have they finally driven that car off the cliff.

  145. DW says:

    And the clown at is saying Ryan was picked against the better wisdom of Romney’ inner circle and it was basically a hail mary pass to shake up the race in desperation.

    –This is a good thing, it means liberals are believing their own lies (the D+19 sample polls).

  146. Wobbles says:

    Only Jeb Bush could save Mitt. Wrong call.

  147. voice of reason says:

    Wednesday: Ryan is the son of satan.

  148. voice of reason says:

    I wonder who Ryan murdered with his budget cuts.

  149. MD says:


  150. MD says:

    27 million seniors.

  151. DW says:

    Ryan’s budget would never kill as many as John Roberts will.

  152. bio mom says:

    Why is it always David Axelrod who gets sent out by the Obama campaign? Very telling. His political guy. Not a policy guy or a cabinet member or someone who deserves real respect. When will the public catch on to this?

  153. MD says:

    The day after never.

  154. bio mom says:

    I still cannot stand smug, smarmy Bill Krystal. And I do not believe for a minute that he has some secret sources and is so very tapped into the campaign. He is just blowing smoke.

  155. SoHope says:

    1006 adults on Sunday

    Ryan pick is:

    39% Excellent or pretty good
    42% Fair or poor

    Is that they best they could do on a Sunday poll of adults?

  156. MD says:

    Kristol has had a long term hatred of Romney. I can’t recall why. He is past his prime and not taken seriously anymore. So he lashes out.

  157. “And the clown at is saying Ryan was picked against the better wisdom of Romney’ inner circle and it was basically a hail mary pass to shake up the race in desperation.”

    considering Ryan was picked before all those over-sampled Dem RV polls, his analysis is a joke

  158. Tina says:

    The Faux News panel

    Largely incoherent.

    They cough more than they talk.

  159. DW says:

    RCP strangely slow updating the Rasmussen tracking numbers today.

  160. rdelbov says:

    +10% for Romney among indies in GW poll

    That’s getting to be the standard for legit polls. Trash those that show otherwise.

  161. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – Only 364 Days Until Maxwell Day!

  162. should be noted the Politico’s DRI is a D+7 electorate

  163. Waingro says:

    #129, UGH. HORRIBLE moderators. 2 liberal dinosaurs in Leher and Schieffer.

    And Crowley?! She’ll be worse than Gwen Iffil in ’08.

  164. Bitterlaw says:

    Wain – Who would you approve of as moderators for the debates?

  165. DW says:

    I was available to be a debate moderator, but they never called me.

  166. Howard Dean says:

    BG poll has Generic R +2.

  167. Howard Dean says:

    MSM- America doesn’t want a debate over the size of gov’t.

    WTF? Really? How do they know that?

    Methinks they are nervous about the outcome.

  168. rdelbov says:

    Yup +7D is GW!!!

    Three ways to judge polls:

    1st D-R-I blend. RAS and Gallup are decent while these +7 or +9 D models are living in the 2008 world or better for Demos.

    2nd Obama should lose more Ds then Romney loses Rs. That’s been the history of voting since say 1940 except for 1964. Even in 2008 Obama only got 89% of Ds while McCain got 90% of R vote.

    3rd +10 for Romney ahead in indies. Legit polls are showing 8 to 13 % edge for Romney here.

    Yet even then its a virtual tie in GW because of +7D. Make it +2 or +3D and Romney is 3% to 4% ahead.

  169. Robbee says:

    165…I agree its 2008 all over again. Conservatives and evangelicals will sit out because they don’t like the mormon/catholic ticket.

  170. Jeff G. says:

    I’m delighted to see that I was able to get the trolls all worked up with a single word (@41). I agree with those who think the more appropriate term is “Communist.”

  171. Waingro says:

    #167: some new blood. But ideally guys like: Chris Wallace, Jake Tapper, and even someone like Chuck Todd, who is clearly a liberal but is actually fair when asking questions of both sides. (He should have gotten the MTP gig).

    Leher is ok. But he was past his prime 4 years ago.

  172. Howard Dean says:


    That data suggests that Republican voter turnout could top Democrat turnout, according the to poll. However, polling after the conventions — when Democrats have more of a reason to tap into election news — is likely to better indicate engagement among the two parties.

    Read more:

    H/T PP

  173. MD says:

    I am staying with Marxist .

  174. EML says:

    Topics for first debate:

    1) How many seniors will Paul Ryan kill
    2) Forced ultrasounds
    3) Presidential tax returns
    4) Why do Republicans hate minorities and gay people
    5) How Obama saved the auto industry
    6) How many jobs did Romney destroy while at Bain Capital

  175. Robbie says:

    2)once again facts destroy Wobbie’s poll trolling. this LV polls proves how this race is the close/tied race it’s been in months. as i’ve said Obama wins today, but his lead is so shaky and weak that could change

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — August 13, 2012 @ 8:12 am

    There you go again. I must have missed my own post where I said this race was a blowout for Obama. I’ve never written that.

    All I ever wrote was the polls of last week, when compared to the previous iterations of them, showed movement towards Obama. No where, did I say blowout, landslide, or anything else.

  176. EML says:

    Last minute moderator replacements:

    Rachel Madcow
    Keith Olbermann
    Al Sharpton

  177. Pitchaboy says:

    One tenth of Ryan’s frontal lobe is Palins brain from political knowledge standpoint. As far as political gut feel Palin is superb
    MD I believe it is 8 or more for my win and 5 to 8 is a draw. It may end in a draw but I am increasingly confident looking at crowds, cash raised, MSM desperation that it will not be that close

  178. Howard Dean says:

    Since 08, Dems/Obama have lost voters in 95 of Iowa’s 99 counties… @rick_wiley’s memo: Hawkeye Hyperventilating

  179. Howard Dean says:

    I’m guessing we should see a poll from Gallup/USATODAY.

    My next guess is it will have Mitt leading.

  180. Michael says:

    I wouldn’t mind Crawley as a moderates if we could replace Schieffer, with someone less bias.

  181. Pitchaboy says:

    The race if you correct Battleground poll to real world is a 49-46 Romney which in effect will be 53-47

  182. dylan says:

    Candy crowly is just awful. That’s an unforced error to have agreed to her.

  183. Robbie says:

    23.@22 Tina did you catch Wobbie, the same guy who slammed Dick Morris’ “real polls” telling us that Bill Kritsol’s “private polls” we’re showing a big Obama win? this guy is such a hypocrite and when you call him out on it the answer is the same “I know you don’t like me, but please stop lying. You didn’t read me right.”

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — August 13, 2012 @ 8:24 am

    Please repost my comments where I wrote Kristol said private polls indicated a big Obama win.

    It will take a while to find them because I wrote no such thing.

    Your obsession with me is odd.

  184. oh! I should have mentioned this earlier. Intrade fails yet again. O-care & Romney’s VP pick – wrong

  185. EML says:

    Obama campaign STILL hasn’t announced cash on hand? Awful

  186. Fact Checker says:

    “Please repost my comments where I wrote Kristol said private polls indicated a big Obama win.”

    Here’s a big reason why Romney may have picked Paul Ryan. Bill Kristol on FNS said private polling over the last few weeks had shown Romney “collapsing” in Ohio and the Midwest.

    Comment by Robbie — August 12, 2012 @ 11:07 am

  187. Howard Dean says:

    Evan Bayh: Democrats must disavow Priorities ad

  188. Wobbie’s motto: “I didn’t say that!”

  189. Robbie says:

    73.@65 what a joke. Kritsol’s private polls show Obama up big

    – Wobbie

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — August 13, 2012 @ 9:10 am

    Yes, that’s exactly what I wrote, except I didn’t.

  190. Phil says:

    Axelrod says Ryan reminds him of Palin.

    Of course it does, David.

    Here we go. Same ol playbook.

  191. SoHope says:

    Paul Ryan & Sarah Palin’s DNA is 99% the same…confidence?

    I think not!

  192. Ned Stark says:


    How are you deciding how to correct the poll, I was looking at it very briefly earlier. Are you re-weighting Party ID or going of typical pollster error?


  193. Waingro says:

    #191, too late. Barry has already dug in and will say nothing.

  194. am I the only one glad Palin didn’t get a speaking spot at the convention? I also hear she’s got some sort of event of her own that week. narcissistic much?

  195. SoHope says:

    Paul Ryan & Sarah Palin are both right handed!!!

  196. Bitterlaw says:

    Who cares who asks the questions? Romney and Ryan have to give the answers and steer the debate back to reality:

    Gov. Romney – why do you want to kill women by forcing them to have illegal abortions?

    The left talks about “choice” but doesn’t want women to live in a world where they are not forced to make difficult choices/ I want women and their partners to have good jobs so they can afford to have the children they create rather than feel trapped into ending pregnancy.

    Get the idea?

  197. Pitchaboy says:

    #196;: Correct D plus 7 to a D plus 2 (optimistic IMO as it may be dead even electorate). Split the undecideds 80-20 to challenger (historic norms)

  198. DW says:

    200…precisely, and Ryan is the master at that game.

  199. Michael says:

    Ron Wyden is becoming a key shield t Ryan, who knows it might help in Oregon and pull the polls down enough for a PAC or two to force Obama to spend time and money there.

  200. Pitchaboy says:

    MD how was the sixty minutes interveiew

  201. Howard Dean says:

    The SUSA poll shows Obama getting 85% of the black vote.

    We now have multiple polls showing him in that range.

    It’s a result of high unemployment and gay marriage.

  202. Robbie says:

    Here’s a big reason why Romney may have picked Paul Ryan. Bill Kristol on FNS said private polling over the last few weeks had shown Romney “collapsing” in Ohio and the Midwest.

    Comment by Robbie — August 12, 2012 @ 11:07 am

    Comment by Fact Checker — August 13, 2012 @ 10:28 am

    In those comments, where did I write Obama was going to win in a landslide. I went on to write that Kristol’s use of “collapsing” was inappropriate.

    If Romney and Obama were tied and Romney fell to -3 in those states, that would be a big difference, but not one that said landslide.

    People are putting words in my mouth simply because I’ve not been a big believer in Romney.

  203. Howard Dean says:

    #191, too late. Barry has already dug in and will say nothing.


    That’s ok, we keep clubbing him with it.

  204. SoHope says:

    Ryan…Palin….they Rhyme…think about it darn you!

  205. Robbie says:

    192.Wobbie’s motto: “I didn’t say that!”

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — August 13, 2012 @ 10:29 am

    I didn not say Obama was winning a blowout. I repeated a comment Kristol made and then wondered if Ryan was picked as much about geography (Midwest) as conservative credentials.

  206. Pitchaboy says:

    If Obama only gets 85 percent of black vote he is in big trouble. He needs 95 percent to keep this competitive. He will underperform with Hispanic and Asian vote compared to 2008

  207. Michael says:

    Several articles show the GOP are digging in, worst case scenario Medicare will hurt both republicans and democrats.

  208. SoHope says:

    Paul Ryan (R)
    Sarah Palin (R)

    Need I say more?!?!?!?

  209. Marv says:

    Good morning, folks. It’s another lovely day in America.

    The Republican National Convention starts in two weeks and the college football season starts the day after the RNC closes. Is this a great country, or what?

  210. DW says:

    The pick of Ryan is very simple. Romney has a lifetime’s experience of hiring people, after examining the resumes. He looked at all the data, did all the interviews, and felt that Ryan was best suited to do the job. His job is to preside over the senate and assist President Romney as he attempts to pull this country back up the cliff and onto stable ground.

    He also gives us a regional advantage in the upper mid west. Name the last time the last time we had a POTUS candidate or VEEP who was from the upper mid-west…

  211. Frank says:


    R / D / R – D

    August 13, 2008: 46% / 48% / -2%
    August 13, 2012: 47% / 44% / +3%

    With Leaners:

    13-Aug: 50% / 45% / +5%

    7-Day Average (with leaners & outliers)

    13-Aug: 48.43% / 45.14% / +3.29%

    7-Day Average (with leaners, no outliers)

    13-Aug: 48.80% / 44.70% / +4.10%


  212. SoHope says:

    “They only thing that ends Medicare as we know it is to keep medicare as we know it.”

    Best line on Medicare I have heard in a while.

    *they have to be clear on the fact that they won’t change it for older americans.

  213. SoHope says:

    They = The

  214. DW says:

    As to timing, the GOP convention is much better…summer vacations will have winded down, people getting ready to go back to school. The Dem convention however, will be right during the time schools have just started up, and people will be much busier as they adjust to being back at school.

    Of course for the people who just sit on their front porches and whose only work each day is to go to the mailbox and remove welfare check, the timing doesn’t matter.

  215. Michael says:

    Washington Post helps Romney with new and improved Romney article titled, “Romney goes on the offensive in Florida while Ryan flying Solo in Iowa.”
    Perfect way to start skewing independents that Romney is not the chicken in this race.

  216. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    56.explosiveliberal says:
    August 13, 2012 at 9:03 am
    Ok, someone help me out here, does it not cheapen this site to use that word? I can’t be alone here.

    -Yes, it does cheapen the site, but for some reason, I also agree with Bitterlaw in #68. Is that inconsistent on my part?

  217. Michael says:

    The post says that Romney can salvage Florida and Ohio’s older voters, however they said that it might be too late for PA +65 voters as the state is starting to shift against Ryan as ads begin to pour om.

  218. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    91.Michael says:
    August 13, 2012 at 9:15 am
    @86 that’s a nicer term I could go along with that, I one time told my democratic grandma that she was a socialist.

    -No dates, a Grandmother who probably doesn’t bake cookies for you….you are a hip dude!

  219. addisonst says:

    I get that Obama/Biden’s ideas are old, tired and status quo. I get that Biden is a blithering idiot and senile.

    I also get that Romney/Ryan is a fresh approach and Ryan is young.

    I’m lost at how the top of their ticket at 10 plus years younger than the top of our ticket is older.

    Must be the new math.

  220. Michael says:

    @222 she doesn’t like me actually she told me that she will be a democrat until she dies and that if she had known that all of the family would have been republicans she would have drowned us all.

    How terrible.

  221. DW says:

    RCP has finally gotten around to posting today’s Rasmussen JA numbers, but they are still not quite getting around to posting the daily tracking.

  222. Michael says:

    Does ras have a state poll today?

  223. addisonst says:

    finally getting some traction on intrade.

    Mitt back with a 4 handle. The market is going to pick up on the energy of the gop ticket.

  224. DW says:

    And with the addition of the battleground poll, we have our FIRST Likely voter poll outside of Rasmussen for the month of August. In August 2008 we had SEVEN national Likely Voter polls not including Rasmussen.

  225. DW says:


    Romney/Ryan 49
    Obama/Biden 44

    500 Certain to Vote



    –Always a step ahead, Paladin/CFP gets out the first poll of FL after the Ryan announcement.

  226. Robbie says:

    I don’t know if this is good news or bad news since it come from John Zogby.

  227. Waingro says:

    Today’s Ras head-to-head poll now included in RCP average, which stands at a +4.0 lead for Barry.

    Hopefully, the trash from Fox and CNN on Friday come rolling off soon.

  228. PurpleDeac says:

    As an investor first and political junkie second, can’t say that the markets are loving the Ryan pick today. Way premature but my more right inclined friends would have said a spike in the market today was Ryan euphoria. Hope the market comes back today. Despite what I think of the Dems, the market has done very well on their watch.

  229. Tina says:


  230. Waingro says:

    #232, troll alert?

  231. EML says:

    Despite what I think of the Dems, the market has done very well on their watch.

  232. SoHope says:

    232, Let me guess, you are from NC?

  233. Bitterlaw says:

    New Thread

  234. IPSO FACTO MO FO says:

    Despite what I think of the Dems, the market has done very well on their watch.

    Comment by PurpleDeac — August 13, 2012 @ 11:03 am

    In spite of their attempts to destroy the economy

  235. Michael says:

    @229 can you provide a link please?

  236. Michael says:

    PPP says it has a closer race than most other recent polls, Obama is under six points

  237. Michael says:

    @243 that is for Ohio

  238. Michael says:

    However Obama is ahead in Ohio, Ryan favorable 34/33 there.