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Thompson Wins in WI, Romney Fights Back, King Under 50% in ME

As much as I would love to pile on Public Policy Polling, the truth is that neither PPP nor Marquette University ended up having polls that were that accurate. PPP gets punished for having the wrong winner and showing Mark Neumann doing a lot better than he ended up doing, but Marquette claimed Tommy Thompson was going to win by 8% and the final tally only has that at 3%. After trying to defend their poll from Missouri last week, PPP did throw in the towel on Twitter last night.

Our primary polls in MO and WI the last 2 weeks were not among our better ones this year. Glad to be done with primary polling for the cycle

I’ll just say especially for Wisconsin, we will need to take anything PPP puts out with a grain of salt.

A short snippet from Mitt Romney in Ohio worth watching.

We have a new poll from the state of Maine showing Angus King dropping under 50% in the US Senate race and Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 15%. The poll comes from Moore Consulting.

US SENATE – MAINE (Moore)
Angus King (I) 46%
Charlie Summers (R) 28%
Cynthia Dill (D) 8%

PRESIDENT – MAINE (Moore)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 37%

This poll was done August 5-6 among 500 registered voters. Meanwhile in New York City, Quinnipiac University has a new Democratic primary poll int eh race for mayor and it shows Christine Quinn ahead of the field.

MAYOR – NEW YORK CITY – DEM PRIMARY (Quinnipiac)
Christine Quinn 29%
William Thompson 10%
John Liu 9%
Bill de Blasio 9%
Scott Stringer 4%
Tom Allon 1%

This poll was done August 8-12 among 1298 voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:52 am
Filed under: General | Comments (227)

227 Responses to “Thompson Wins in WI, Romney Fights Back, King Under 50% in ME”

  1. Todd McCain says:

    ROMNEY ON THE ATTACK!

    Keep at it Mitt.

  2. rdelbov says:

    I personally think Maine will get closer. Not sure we hold the seat but the GOP/Super PACs will toss a few million towards this seat. I think the D label is worth 12 to 16% in this state. Not sure the GOP gets to 42% but we will see. King has no resources.

  3. jenny-if mitt were a christian, he would have a 10 point lead says:

    great speech by mitt!

  4. rdelbov says:

    As a side note thankful Thompson won and I feel 100% better about that seat.

    I actually feel better about MN8 as well as Nolan has been underfunded and is a figure of days gone by. Ditto for FL2 but CT5 & FL27 look to be tougher for the GOP.

  5. Todd McCain says:

    I dont think its worth it. I would spend the extra million in NM or HI before I tried for Maine — or throw it into MI.

  6. Michael says:

    Hey everyone check out the Nh governor numbers I justed posted on the last thread?

    Dave should add them to the next post.

  7. Tina says:

    We must only use private polls now. No more PPP.

  8. rdelbov says:

    Good Morning layoff report from NOLA as 130 at the local U will be gone:

    http://www.nola.com/education/index.ssf/2012/08/uno_will_lose_130_jobs_in_hist.html

    You can pick nearly every job market and see discomfort.

  9. Michael says:

    It was number 727 if anyone wants to look, GOP has a real chance to win.

  10. EML says:

    Senate elections roundup:

    WI: The Republican Senate primary was of course the big one of the night. Ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson held off 3 challengers: Eric Hovde, ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, and state Rep. Jeff Fitzgerald. Thompson took 34%, Hovde came in second at 31%, Neumann third at 23%, and Fitzgerald brought up the rear at 12%. Thompson gives the GOP the best chance of taking over this seat from the retiring Herb Kohl. Democrat Tammy Baldwin was unopposed

    CT: Both primaries went as expected. On the Dem side, Rep. Chris Murphy easily defeated ex-SOS Susan Bysiewicz 67%-33%. On the Rep side, Linda McMahon had an even easier time with ex-Rep. Chris Shays. She walloped him 73%-27%. Murphy should be favored in November.

    FL: In the Republican primary, Rep. Connie Mack IV cruised as expected, taking 59% of the vote. Ex-Rep. Dave Weldon was second with 20% and Mike McCalister ended up with 14%. Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson faced token opposition, which he dispatched 79%-21%. This will be a closely watched race in November.

    MN: There was even a Senate election in Minnesota last night, although you wouldn’t have known it from the thread. Paulbot Kurt Bills won with 51% of the vote. Dave Carlson was second with 35% and Bob Carney was way back at 14%. Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar had no problems in her primary, winning with a whopping 91% of the vote. Klobuchar will romp over the Paulbot in November.

  11. EML says:

    Now for a word on turnout. Although primary turnout is an unproven predictor of general election results, one of the signs that it was going to be a good GOP year was the excellent primary turnout on the GOP. I believe we are seeing the same thing this year.

    In CT in 2010, GOP primary voters were roughly 40% of all primary voters. Now in 2012, that number was up to 45%, possibly showing even more enthusiasm than in 2008. In the competitive CT-05 district, there were more Republican voters than Democratic voters (51R-49D).

    In WI, it’s hard to make comparisons since Democrats ran unopposed in both 2010 and 2012. The Republican Senate vote was down slightly (591,107 in 2010 to 582,119), but that’s actually pretty good. Primary vote totals are down across the board from 2010, but Democratic numbers seem much more depressed than Republican numbers. I take this vote total in WI to be very good news for Republicans, considering how 2010 turned out.

    In FL, the raw vote totals were 1,124,591 for Republicans and 874,370 for Democrats. This represents about a 7.5% drop from 2010. In 2010, 58% of the primary electorate was Republican vs 42% Democratic. 2012 is down slightly from that, 56%R to 44%D. Still a big advantage for Republicans.

    The numbers in Minnesota are just amazing. No doubt some of it can be attributed to a blowout for Klobuchar, but still:

    2012 MN-Sen: 123,751R 195,327D
    2010 MN-Gov: 130,408R 442,137D
    2008 MN-Sen: 143,429R 251,205D

    The Dem total represents a 56% drop over the 2010 number and a 22% from 2008. Don’t want to read too much into this, but that can’t be great for Democrats.

  12. dylan says:

    Why did shays get utterly vaporized in CT?

  13. EML says:

    House primary recap:

    CT-05: In a pleasant surprise (for us anyway), ex-state Rep Elizabeth Esty defeated Democratic Party-endorsed (and ethically challenged) state House Speaker Chris Donovan 45%-32% with third candidate Dan Roberti taking 23%. And in an additional twist, Donovan is already on the Working Families Party ballot line. It may be interesting to see how that plays out. On the Republican side, state Senator Andrew Roraback defeated a handful of candidates. Roraback took just 32%, but it was enough to defeat Mark Greenberg (27%), Lisa Foley (21%), and Justin Bernier (19%). Surprisingly, more Republicans than Democrats voted in this district. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pundits move this seat towards the Republican side, especially if Donovan stays on the WFP line.

    FL-02: In a slight upset (to me, anyway), ex-state Sen. Al Lawson defeated state Rep. Leonard Bembry 55-26 in the Democratic primary. Lawson hasn’t raised much money, so I can’t see him defeated Republican Steve Southerland, even though this district became 2 points more Dem in redistricting.

    FL-03: In another upset I wasn’t expecting, incumbent Cliff Stearns is losing (hasn’t been called yet) the Republican primary to Ted Yoho by 829 votes. I guess I will have to read up on Yoho. This is a Safe R district (59% McCain).

    FL-06: Welcome Republican Ron DeSantis to Congress. He won this crowded 7-way race with a very respectable 39% of the vote, 16 points clear of his nearest competitor. This is another guy I don’t know too much about; hopefully we picked a winner. This is a 53% McCain district and Rep primary voters outnumbered Dem primary voters 62K to 37K.

    FL-07: In a member-on-member battle, John Mica defeated Sandy Adams. This is unfortunate for Adams; I was hoping she’d do well here. Hopefully we’ll see her somewhere else soon.

    FL-09: Osceola County Commission Chairman John Quinones, the only guy that got any press from this district, got beat pretty badly by Todd Long, 47-28. I fear this may mean a second term for moonbat psycho Alan Grayson. Don’t know too much about Long, though.

    FL-18: Allen West wins! GOP voters walloped Dem voters, 61.5K to 33.5K.

    FL-19: In a crowded 6-way race for Connie Mack’s open seat, radio host Trey Radel held off all comers with only 30% of the vote. Chauncey Goss finished a distant second at 22%. Radel is headed to Congress in this Safe Republican seat.

    FL-22: On the Dem side, ex-West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel defeated Broward County Commissioner Kristin Jacobs 61-39. Frankel will now take on Adam Hasner in this newly-drawn, Dem-leaning seat. However, Dems might be disheartened by the fact that less than 30K primary voters came out for this competitive primary.

    FL-26: Democrats got there man in Joe Garcia, who took 53% over 3 other candidates. He gets to take on the oft-attacked David Rivera in this south Florida seat. Again, Democrats turned out only 26K voters, something they can’t be happy with. Despite Rivera’s troubles, this seat probably leans Republican right now.

    WI-02: Democratic state Rep. Marc Pocan destroyed fellow state Rep. Kelda Roys 72-22. Pocan will replace Tammy Baldwin in the House.

    MN-08: Democratic ex-Rep Rick Nolan beat back 2010 MN-06 nominee Taryl Clark and Duluth Councillor Jeff Anderson 38-32-29. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but Dems had a pretty decent turnout here. Republican freshman Chip Cravaack is going to have a difficult race just because of the natural lean of the district (D+3ish). Tossup for November.

  14. EML says:

    12 – I would say $$$$ (McMahon spent $11 million, Shays $1 million) and Shays doesn’t pass the Republican primary voter litmus test.

  15. Michael says:

    Guess what? Next month my county will have over 40,000 republicans!

  16. MD says:

    A good shot at the sen seat in WI. A decent shot at POTUS. Zero percent chance for Maine. If less than zero was possible it would be less than zero. Not 1 dime should be spent there.

  17. mnw says:

    12

    Because Shays is the penultimate RINO, & nobody gave a tinker’s damn about him.

    When people are “underfunded,” it means they’re lousy fundraisers.

  18. MD says:

    Very good news with Thompson. Also, Tommy admits that the polls he has been making up at times are suspect. No kidding .

  19. Bitterlaw says:

    EML – Did Jul back any winners last night? I hope not. We need victories more than we need to send a message.

  20. mnw says:

    I dunno about TT– is he running better than the others against GLBT because people like him, or just because of name rec? Will the old gentleman wear well in a long, competitive campaign?

  21. MD says:

    When you get beat by more than 10, it means you sucked big time. Shays should just be quiet . When you get beat by 40 by someone with her background, well…..

  22. MD says:

    Jul is still going to accept a salary from the taxpayers. Won’t practice what he preaches .

  23. EML says:

    19 – Julian probably supports Kurt Bills in MN. I don’t know about these guys in FL, Yoho, DeSantis, Long, and Radel.

  24. Michael says:

    @13 I don’t know about you, but it sounds like the GOP will finally retake Shays old senate seat and force the democrats into defense.

  25. MD says:

    MNW – Thompson should do well in the immediate burbs. That would have been an issue potentially for Hovde. Not guaranteeing victory. Baldwin is stronger than many here wan to think and the universities will be in session. Shod be very close.

  26. MD says:

    Anyone really think McMahon wins?

  27. jason says:

    I have to disagree with Dave’s assessment which puts Marquette’s and PPP’s performance at about the same level.

    There is a huge difference in picking the wrong candidate vs. missing the final count of the winner by 5%.

    Marquette picked Thompson by 8, he won by 3, that is slightly outside the margin of error.

    PPP picked Hovde to win, a blatant attempt to influence the race and get a weaker R candidate in the GE.

    Apples and oranges.

  28. mnw says:

    Scanning the MSM this morning, you would think last night’s biggest story by far was the SURPRISE victory of …. Linda M. in CT!

    Tommy T.? Rep. Mack? Never heard of ‘em!

    The MSM (heart) Linda because they can play her up as the national poster girlfor right wing zaniness. Oh you kraaazy kid, you!

  29. mnw says:

    Oh, f me! I agree w/ the Perfesser. Where did I go wrong?

  30. MD says:

    Agree Jason. PPP screwed the pooch again. Making up polling numbers isn’t as easy as it looks when your team is not in a wave cycle.

  31. mnw says:

    I agree that beating Baldwin is gonna be rough. Tossup.

  32. Todd McCain says:

    The only thing McMahon does is get the DEMS tangled in CT — maybe allowing us to sneak one out in HI or NM.

  33. Marv says:

    RAS Ohio US Senate:

    Brown(D)—-44
    Mandel(R)—44

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

  34. mnw says:

    “NY Manufacturing Gauge Slides”

    I thought this was Recovery Summer IV?

  35. mnw says:

    RAS = outlier

  36. mnw says:

    It’ll scare green krap out of the DEMs, tho.

  37. Phil says:

    RAS this morning.

    Romney 47-43

    50-44 with leaners.

    more to follow…..

  38. mnw says:

    I sure hope RAS is ahead of the curve, finding out the real deal before other pollsters do… & not just wrong.

  39. J T says:

    13. EM, thanks for the analysis.

    Very happy Thompson won. He will win rather easily over Baldwin.

    What is it with these GOP Reps from CT? Simmons and Shays look good on paper, but cannot raise a dime.

  40. Tina says:

    We need to stop with Ras, he is making up these #s. Private polling indicates that Romney loses.

  41. J T says:

    31. Why do you think Baldwin will be tough?

    Ryan on the ticket, Thompson won statewide three times against a Marxist rep from insulated Madison?

  42. MD says:

    I think the truth may be in the middle somewhere.

  43. J T says:

    40. LOL Tina, are you playing Robbie today?

  44. MD says:

    The McMahons connections in CT makes fundraising difficult for anyone else.

  45. J T says:

    PPP is still very credible with many posters here though. I will not name names.

    WI recall, MO Senate, WI Senate. Jensen knows Thompson will crush Baldwin, so he tried to prop up Hovde

  46. Marv says:

    Phil,

    I checked the Aggies’ schedule again and figure them for 7-5. Mizzou at home in their last game should get them their 7th win.

  47. J T says:

    44. True MD, but you would think Shays could raise $$ in Greenwich at least

  48. MD says:

    French 10 yr at 2.11. A joke

  49. J T says:

    $4.30 a gallon in Chi suburbs Tina.

  50. J T says:

    MD, the 75% tax rate for French Rich is killing their future economy. I was in Paris and Normandy recently, and even the MSM there thought Hollande was an idiot

  51. david says:

    dave;

    If PPP is so bad, why are you using in your electoral vote page? In at least several states, PPP is the reason, Obama dominates.

  52. MD says:

    JT – how can we short French bonds? It is so obvious to me. Do u know of an ETF in French Bonds?

  53. Marv says:

    #37 Phil,

    RAS this morning confirms a 2-3 point bump with, with leaners included, for Romney since the Ryan pick.

    50-44 today probably would be 52.5/46.0/1.5 on election day.

  54. MD says:

    David – they make up the most polls by far. What can u do?

  55. DW says:

    Paladin/CFP’s EXTREMELY Clear Politics Average of only credible Likely voters polls:

    Romney 47.7
    Obama 46

  56. Marv says:

    Mornin’, MD.

  57. Marv says:

    You too, DW.

  58. EML says:

    Rothenburg already making changes:

    FL-02 moves from Lean R to Likely R
    FL-09 moves from Lean D to Likely D
    CT-05 moves from Lean D to Tossup

  59. MD says:

    You as well Marv.

  60. Marv says:

    MD,

    I’m starting to feel fairly sanguine about our prospects in November. This time, unlike my Perry campaign, I actually mean it.

  61. EML says:

    Good posts Marv and MD!

  62. J T says:

    52. Sorry MD, really tough rules on Foreign bonds. Hard to short individual French stocks also. I will ask one of my bond trader buddies if you can buy some PUT options somewhere

  63. MD says:

    The Phil’s staff starts pitching like the staff they thought they had in the beginning of the year . Great.

  64. MD says:

    That’s what I thought JT. Such an easy call.

  65. J T says:

    51. David I agree. Between bias PPP and the awful left wing debate moderators, it is irritating

  66. Phil says:

    Marv,

    7-5 with a bowl victory making it 8-5 would be a pretty darned respectable year one in the SEC.

    I’d take that.

  67. J T says:

    Believe it or not, the French build a lot of cars. Peugot etc.. that sell well in weiner Europe.

    Hollande next will try to nationalize their auto industry

  68. Michael says:

    Breaking news! Judges uphold PA voter ID law.

  69. MD says:

    Btw – prepare for soaring food prices. The drought will get all the blame but the fed is equally culpable as well. You have to wonder how the bernank would have handled things if we had a potus who the business community trusted.

  70. MD says:

    Michael – don’t get too excited. They will get their injunction when they need it.

  71. DW says:

    The final Paladin/CFP poll of Wisconsin posted here yesterday was more accurate than either PPP(D) or Marquette:

    WISCONSIN GOP SENATE PRIMARY

    Thompson 35%
    Neumann 28%
    Hovde 24%
    Fizgerald 8%

    500 Certain to vote

    Paladin/CFP – 8/13/12

    Comment by DW — August 14, 2012 @ 11:56 am

    So here it is again with the actuals:

    WISCONSIN GOP SENATE PRIMARY

    Thompson 35% (actual 34%)
    Neumann 28% (actual 23%)
    Hovde 24% (actual 31%)
    Fizgerald 8% (actual 12%)

    So Hovde surged a little more than what our polling picked up, but we feel good about nailing the Thompson support within 1%.

  72. EML says:

    Hottest TV ad markets, 8/13-8/19:

    1. Roanoke-Lynchburg
    2. Colorado Springs
    3. Des Moines
    4. Denver
    5. Charlotte
    6. Richmond-Petersburg
    7. Cedar Rapids
    8. Quad Cities
    9. Sioux City
    10. Tampa

    Our big takeaway: Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. Four of the top 10 markets are in Hawkeye State — Des Moines (#3), Cedar Rapids (#7), Quad Cities (#8), and Sioux City (#9). Also, Team Romney (the campaign, RNC, outside groups) is outspending Team Obama by more than 2-to-1, $25 million to $11 million.

  73. Good Morning! Nice to see Romney up by 4 in Rasmussen. BTW Ras finds the OH Senate Race tied 44-44

  74. Marv says:

    #71 DW,

    The staff was very pleased at our morning meeting.
    I released them for the day, with pay.

    (The G-650 is available again this weekend if you want it.)

  75. Michael says:

    @70 true, but in the end I think we will win, we need ID to board a plane, to buy liqueur, to drive a car, etc. that is probably all that was needed to be said.

  76. EML says:

    A Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday refused to stop a tough new voter identification law from going into effect, which Democrats say will suppress votes among President Barack Obama’s supporters.

    Commonwealth Court Judge Robert Simpson said he wouldn’t grant an injunction that would have halted the law requiring each voter to show a valid photo ID. Opponents are expected to file an appeal within a day or two to the state Supreme Court as the Nov. 6 presidential election looms.

    The Republican-penned law – which passed over the objections of Democrats – has ignited a furious debate over voting rights as Pennsylvania is poised to play a key role in deciding the presidential contest in November. Opponents had asked Simpson to block the law from taking effect in this year’s election as part of a wider challenge to its constitutionality.

    Republicans defend the law as necessary to protect the integrity of the election. But Democrats say the law will make it harder for the elderly, minorities, the poor and college students to vote, as part of a partisan scheme to help the Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, beat Democratic Obama.

    “We’re not done, it’s not over,” said Witold J. Walczak, an American Civil Liberties Union lawyer who helped argue the case for the plaintiffs. “It’s why they make appeals courts.”

    Simpson didn’t rule on the full merits of the case, only whether to grant a preliminary injunction stopping it from taking effect.

    Votes by four of six Supreme Court justices would be needed to overturn the ruling by Simpson, who is a Republican. But the high court is currently split between three Republicans and three Democrats following the recent suspension of Justice Joan Orie Melvin, a Republican who is fighting criminal corruption charges.

  77. Frank says:

    Rasmussen:

    August 15, 2008: 45% / 47% / -2%

    August 15, 2012: 47% / 43% / +4%

    with leaners (3-day averages)

    15-Aug: 50% / 44% / +6%
    14-Aug: 50% / 45% / +5%
    13-Aug: 50% / 45% / +5%
    12-Aug: 48% / 45% / +3%
    11-Aug: 48% / 45% / +3%
    10-Aug: 49% / 44% / +5%
    9-Aug: 49% / 44% / +5%
    8-Aug: 48% / 46% / +2%
    7-Aug: 47% / 47% / +0%
    6-Aug: 47% / 48% / -1%
    5-Aug: 48% / 45% / +3%
    4-Aug: 47% / 45% / +2%
    3-Aug: 50% / 44% / +6%
    2-Aug: 49% / 45% / +4%
    1-Aug: 50% / 45% / +5%

    7-day rolling average (with leaners)

    15-Aug: 49.14% / 44.57% / +4.57%
    14-Aug: 48.86% / 44.86% / +4.00%
    13-Aug: 48.43% / 45.14% / +3.29%
    12-Aug: 48.00% / 45.57% / +2.43%
    11-Aug: 48.00% / 45.57% / +2.43%
    10-Aug: 47.86% / 45.57% / +2.29%
    09-Aug: 48.00% / 45.57% / +2.43%
    08-Aug: 48.00% / 45.71% / +2.29%
    07-Aug: 48.29% / 45.57% / +2.71%

    I’ve converted this data into a graph and it is stunning.

    The data falling off tomorrow in 49-44, so the 7-day average will be hard to improve. 49% will keep Romney’s average constant. 50% will increase it slightly. 48% or below will decrease his average.

    If Obama is 45% or above, then his 7-day average will improve.

    Enjoy this fantastic news.

    It clearly shows a significant bump after the announcement on August 11.

    Frank

  78. DW says:

    74….thanks. Will have to go somewhere nice for the weekend.

  79. Phil says:

    Scanning the morning RAS crosstabs

    -Romney up with indies by 6

    -Obama continues to have a much tougher time holding Dems than Romney does with Rs. In 2008 it was the opposite.

    -47/52 approval

    Hopefully, Frank will be along soon with more numbers and insight.

  80. Frank says:

    August Avg / 48.67% / 45.13% / +3.53%

    This includes the outliers.

    Frank

  81. Frank says:

    “in” shoulda been “is”

    Frank

  82. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – PA law should go right to State Supreme Court. I will have to read decision. I am in court now.

  83. mnw says:

    Frank

    It’s because RAS underpolls cell phone-only households, & thus he’s missing the coming Obama/DEM tidal wave.

  84. Frank says:

    Wow. This is even cooler.

    The leaners today are in a 3 to 1 ratio.

    The “other” is at the normal 2%.

    So, if the “not sure” falls out at the same 3 to 1 ratio, then check out these numbers.

    2012: 52.14% / 45.57% / +6.57%

    2008: 45.60% / 52.83% / -7.23%

    Wow.

    Frank

  85. mnw says:

    RE: Shays

    Would YOU write a check to “the most prominent anti-war, pro-choice GOP voice in Congress”?

    Go ring some doorbells on a Sunday afternoon for THAT?

  86. Todd McCain says:

    84. What do you mean by that, Frank?

  87. Frank says:

    More interesting Rasmussen statistics.

    Month of July: (no leaners)

    Men / 50% / 41%
    Women / 44% / 47%

    Month of July: (with leaners)

    Men / 52% / 43%
    Women / 46% / 48%

    Not much of a typical gender gap.

    Frank

  88. Phil says:

    RAS

    51% say media will try and help Obama the remainder of the campaign

    9% Romney.

    Pretty much a no brainer for us, but at least it shows the bias is well understood by the masses.

  89. Tina says:

    MD, ficus says no food inflation.

  90. Frank says:

    Todd,

    In today’s with leaners chart,there are 4% undecided. If they fall in the same percentage of 3:1, the 7-day rolling average increase by 3% for Romney and 1% for Obama. That is what is listed.

    2008 is the final percentages for McCain/Obama.

    Frank

  91. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    720.Bitterlaw says:
    August 15, 2012 at 7:27 am
    Tim – May I suggest that you copy and paste part of the post you aare responding to rather than just the number? We’re lazy. Don’t make us work

    That’s the way his daddy taught him, and that’s the way his Grandaddy showed his Dad, and that’s the way…….LOL!

    Ok, that’s it, gotta stop beating that dead horse.

  92. Todd McCain says:

    thx Frank.

  93. sir Albert says:

    How is a tie-breaker handled in a state Supreme Court like PA?

  94. Clinton's Cigar says:

    93 – typically a duel

  95. mnw says:

    The same way as every othercourt: tie means the lower court decision stands.

  96. mnw says:

    Yes… I wish Palin would somehow self-vaporize.

    McPain has SOOO much to atone for, & bringing that Palin idiot to national prominence is near the top of the list.

  97. Tim says:

    Answer to posts #720, and #724 in previous thread:

    1.No
    2.No

  98. mnw says:

    Pelosi “I hope Paul Ryan will make me Speaker again.”

  99. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    #94 Todd
    Actually, it is pretty smart for Palin to say that, because now Obama would be hard-pressed to do something that Sarah Palin suggested, imho.

  100. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    #98 – Shocker!

    (Hudson and Medlen – I owe you for those 2!)

  101. mnw says:

    I really like the way Crossroads GPS (Rove’s PAC) spends its money. Lotta bang for the buck there. Heat-seeking missile, turn on a dime outfit.

    They hit Sky Queen hard the day after the GOP primary in MO, & today they’re up against GLBT in WI already.

  102. DW says:

    VIRGINIA

    Romney 47
    Obama 46

    Paladin/CFP

    500 Certain to Vote

    8/14/12

  103. Tina says:

    A lot of people are saying that Gaffe has mental issues, and thus, is not fit for VEEP. I believe Guiliani echoed very similar thinking yesterday.

  104. mnw says:

    I credit Crossroads (partially) w/ Akin’s unusually good showing in that first SUSA poll after the primary.

  105. Robbie says:

    1.ROMNEY ON THE ATTACK!

    Keep at it Mitt.

    Comment by Todd McCain — August 15, 2012 @ 7:56 am

    What I’ve been hoping to see since late June.

  106. Todd McCain says:

    DW, Was that closer than before for Mitt?

  107. mnw says:

    Sky Queen has a hell of a challenge: How to sell herself to indies (where she’s losing by appx 15 points), while simultaneously feeding her lefty base (AA churches) the socialist red meat they love?

  108. DW says:

    111 – yes, but just statistical noise, nothing major.

  109. Robbie says:

    26.Anyone really think McMahon wins?

    Comment by MD — August 15, 2012 @ 8:44 am

    PPP suggested the race could be a headache for Democrats. I suppose if there’s some sort of collapse in the economy (Lehman), it’s possible, but not likely she wins.

  110. Tina says:

    Wyden

    Bowles

    BJ

    All expressed support for Ryan’s plan.

  111. Tina says:

    Sky Queen is a moderate though.

  112. MD says:

    Tina,

    Wtf? Really? The price of corn alone will have a huge ripple effect. You just have to go to the supermarket. The research isn’t that difficult.

    As for the voter Id thing in PA, I can see Melvin siding with the D’s thinking it will help her. Still, it will be solid law one day.

  113. Howard Dean says:

    Gasoline prices are up sharply in the past month on surging crude oil costs and refinery woes, and now are likely to make 2012 the costliest year ever at the pump.

    ….

  114. Todd McCain says:

    The race will be a headache for them. She could potentially commit 20-30 million to the race — it will force dems to shore up Murhphy and leave, OH, NM, FL and HI open.

    I think that is what PPP is getting at. McMahon will not win — but because of her drainage of DSCC resources, Mandel, Wilson or Lingle may win.

  115. mnw says:

    McMahon spent $50 million smackers in 2010 (anybody think of a better GOP year?) & still lost the GE by… 11%.

    So she’s gonna do BETTER in 2012? That’s a bad joke.

    (In 2010, she spent more running for Senate than all but 2 other candidates… in the entire history of the republic, btw.)

  116. MD says:

    MNW – at the end of the day, she is not electable. Not sure why the McMahons want to spend so much of their money.

  117. MFG says:

    8 rdelbov

    Nasty budget cuts for UNO sorry to see that

  118. argh! always bothers me to see so many people jump on McMahon. Look, the polls prove she’d do better then Shays could versus Murphy. I do think if there was a financial panic she could pull it off there. That said, i’tll most likely be a Dem win. I do think she can do better then 2010. Shoot me, I like her and hope the best for her.

  119. mnw says:

    Now, I do confess that I confuse CT & DE all the time– hard to tell the difference, so…

  120. MD if the Dems hadn’t pull that switchero in 2010, she would have beaten Dodd

  121. mnw says:

    ALM

    I hope she wins too.

    But I don’t see that the big DEM committees will ever see any need to pump in monet there.

    I think she’s been “defined.”

  122. MD says:

    Maybe Author. He was a dead duck.

  123. Tina says:

    He tried arguing with me the other day about it. He said that the CPI is low – steel low – housing low.

    I told him I am only looking at “food inflation” and it is quite high. I could care less about steel and housing.

  124. Tina says:

    $4.29 in my locale. Up 5 to 10 cents every day since Saturday.

  125. notice how quiet the media has been about the surge in Gas prices?

  126. Bitterlaw says:

    As for the voter Id thing in PA, I can see Melvin siding with the D’s thinking it will help her. – MD

    MD – are you basing that opinion on something other than your usual belief that bad things will happen? State Supreme Court Judges run statewide and need their party’s support. I doubt that any Dem or GOP judge is stupid enough to trust the other party to reward them in a retention election. If she was counting on becoming a Federal judge someday by rescuing the Democrats on voter id, she can forget it. There are probably a hundred Dems waiting for a Federal appointment and they would raise hell if a GOP judge took their slot.

  127. MD says:

    Tina ,

    I have been a huge critic on how the CPI is constructed for a long time. You cant eat your home or hdtv.

  128. Howard Dean says:

    So the Dems are going hard after West and they got doubled up in the Primary?

    Hmmm

  129. SoHope says:

    Aparently I missed last night’s debate that CT is more blue than MA because Scott Brown is a Senator.

    I guess MT, CO, VA, MI and WV are more blue because they have 2 dem senators.

    lisab,
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo-YVqV0v4Q

  130. mnw says:

    There are 6 SEN races where Crossroads GPS is spending $$$ right now, & their choices are interesting to me: NV; MT; VA; MO; OH; & WI.

  131. MD says:

    Bitter – she is trying to stay out of jail.

  132. DW says:

    my take on McMahon is that she is a placeholder candidate. She is on the ballot, and will lose if there are no surprises…but if the Dem suddenly decides to go full Spitzer two weeks before the election, then we have someone reasonable and credible on the ballot who can win.

  133. MD says:

    Bitter – perhaps you should strive to be more current before posting.

  134. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    #128 – same thing that happened in NJ with Torricelli, although that was with only a month left in the race.

  135. mnw says:

    So… all she needs is a major hooker scandal & she’s in?

  136. Bitterlaw says:

    I skimmed the PA Decision. 2 main points:

    1. The Dems/Petioners picked a crappy witness who was not believable when he testified as an “expert” on the impact of the law.

    2. The judge said that while he was sympathetic towards the people who claimed they couldn’t get a photo id (but who managed to get the Hearing), they suffered no harm because they could all vote by absentee ballot.

  137. DW says:

    143…no, not a guarantee, but a likely win in that scenario. But it is important to have a name on the ballot in case something does happen like that.

  138. DW says:

    144….lol…clever judge, they face hardship getting a voter ID, but managed to make it to the courthouse.

  139. Robbie says:

    Everyone knows I’m a glass half empty person when it comes to Romney’s chances, but he’s done himself very well this week.

    I watched the CBS interview and Romney was very good. He’s actually always been quite good in those settings and he ought to avail himself more throughout the remainder of the race.

    Most importantly Romney seems engaged in a way he hadn’t been previously. He’s aggressive on the stump and now he’s offered his 5 point plan for the economy. That’s what I’ve wanted to see since late June.

    Now, I can’t be totally optimistic or people might think someone highjacked my name so let me say this. Romney must stay on the attack and engaged like this for the next 83 days. This can’t be a one week thing and then he returns to a defensive crouch.

  140. Tina says:

    Media talk about gas prices? They will not decline rapidly post Labor Day and will stay high.

  141. MFG says:

    Calculated spontaneity will be the key for Mitt going forward

  142. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – Orie-Melvin is suspended and won’t be voting on the ID law. Try to keep up.

  143. SoHope says:

    uh oh….somebody has leaked Robbie’s strategy for the GOP online. It’s all there. We are sunk.

    http://www.oxymoronlist.com/

  144. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – You were wrong that Melvin would be in a position to vote on the voter ID law. My response was written as if she could vote and why she would not side with the Dems. Let us not start a war that will lay waste to HHR. Cream soda.

  145. DW says:

    Drudge is great at juxtaposing photos. Ryan and Romney pic shows them steady, in control, presidental, and the pic of Biden–he looks like raving lunatic!

  146. SoHope says:

    In order to prove my non-racist, anti-anti-gay mentality, I propose we switch from cream soda to yoohoo or a nice red wine.

    Any takers?

  147. Bitterlaw says:

    Wine is for chicks. I don’t give a damn how many HHR men like it. I stand by that statement.

  148. EML says:

    Civil Beat: we got the HI-Sen race wrong because the person asking the questions was a white woman and Asians are conformists so they just gave the answer they thought the white person wanted to hear (Ed Case)

    http://m.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/08/15/16857-civil-beat-poll-what-the-heck-happened/

  149. SoHope says:

    Can we atleast get together wearing skinny jeans a dark turtleneck and watch Titanic…come on help me out. I have to get lisab off my back.

  150. @157 agreed. wine sucks. I drink beer & liqour

  151. EML says:

    NY-27 American Action Network

    Collins (R) 47%
    Hochul (D) 34%

    Siena will release a poll of the race on Sunday.

    http://www.buffalonews.com/city/capital-connection/washington/article1004944.ece

  152. Bitterlaw says:

    SoHope – Watch Brokeback Mountain. You will be stunned at how incredibly boring gay people are. Apparently, they just sit and sit and sit for hours by a river and drink coffee while not speaking. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

  153. GeorgeIllinois says:

    notice how quiet the media has been about the surge in Gas prices?

    Yeah, like we don’t notice when we gas up. the media thinks it it just buries its head in the sand, it will all go away.

    Just makes it easier to give them a kick in the keister.

  154. EML says:

    I am a beer snob, as many have figured out. Bourbon is my liquor of choice.

    However, as I live near the 100+ wineries in the Finger Lakes I can tell you…it’s really hard to beat a relaxing weekend day cruising down the shore of Seneca or Cayuga, tasting wines at each stop along the way.

  155. DW says:

    161…
    Two things to think about in regards to that poll

    1) Keep in mind that the new district voted for McCain over Obama 54/44, and both Cook and Rothenberg have this race as a tossup.

    2) Re-read #1.

  156. SoHope says:

    If I finally watch Brokeback Mountain, will lisab final let me live in peace. I grow weary of he constant logical superiority…

    Ohh…by the way, Day 10 of lisab being a racist, bigoted, communist, supporter of genocide (with no end in sight).

  157. EML says:

    165 – I don’t have it as a tossup I have it Lean to Likely R.

  158. rdelbov says:

    #155 PPP had 9% of AA’s going for Romney in their national poll. Big deal as that matches Bush43 numbers. Yet 9% is better then 4%!!!

    I do not see AA’s turning out in the frenzy they did in 2008.

  159. jason says:

    ” 29.Oh, f me! I agree w/ the Perfesser. Where did I go wrong?”

    Law of averages.

  160. SusyQue says:

    #166….So Hope…get your little nose into the Bible…what does the Lord say about “strife”…?

  161. Bitterlaw says:

    EML – do you wear a bikini or one-piece while cruising from winery to winery?

    SoHope – If you can stay awake during that movie, she has to relent. The only thing worth seeing is Ann Hathaway topless.

  162. jason says:

    162.SoHope – Watch Brokeback Mountain”

    A Philly A-hole watched Brokeback Mountain???

    Sometimes I just can’t deal with the disappointments in life….

  163. EML says:

    Its european

  164. DW says:

    As long as there is a DEM Potus,

    these conditions don’t seem to exist in America according to the media:

    High Gas prices
    Homelessness
    Hunger
    Poverty
    Inner City violence
    Despair
    Corruption
    Government waste

    –But just as soon as we get a GOP Potus, then…well, you know the drill.

  165. ssq says:

    The Lord will turn Brokeback Mountain into an exploding volcano for allowing gay cowboys on its slopes.

  166. SusyQue says:

    #176…Bitter…speak for yourself!

  167. jason says:

    175. Right, Romney will OWN the bad economy starting on election day if he wins.

    THe MSM will talk about the Bush-Romney economy.

    I can see the headlines now “Unemployment tics down to 7.5% in a JOBLESS ECONOMY”

  168. ssq says:

    I am not bitter, I am quite happy because the Lord will smite anyone who votes for Obama.

  169. Bitterlaw says:

    jason – unlike some conservatives who rant about things they have never seen, I watched it to see what the fuss was about. Gay people should demand that the movie be burned as it makes them look incredibly boring. I also watched Black Swan but only because I heard Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman hook up. It was worth it.

  170. Bitterlaw says:

    The worst movie I ever endured:

    The English Patient

    Runner up – Shakespear in Love.

  171. Jeff G. says:

    Today rising gas prices are good because it proves that the economy is revving up. In four months those higher prices will mean that Romney and his “oil buddies” are getting rich off working familes.

  172. rdelbov says:

    Bitterlaw–clearly you never had to take kids to any of the Pokemon movies. Oh my goodness they were so so so bad.

    I do agree with English Patient. Still confused by that movie and not sure why anyone cared for it.

  173. Scott says:

    #182- Jeff G.
    Well said!

  174. John says:

    Has anyone else noticed that in the Florida primaries yesterday that Republicans had more than 270,00 voters cast their ballots than Democrats?

  175. EML says:

    186 see post 11

  176. Bitterlaw says:

    rdel – the first movie I took my son to see in a theater was Thomas the Tank Engine. Why would a movie targeted to small children be 9 hours long? It seemed like it.

  177. Barrett says:

    #178 – A slight edit to your statement

    “Unemployment EXPECTEDLY tics down to 7.5% in a JOBLESS ECONOMY”

  178. lisab says:

    “If Barack Obama gets his way and raises taxes on everyone making $250,000.00 a year or more, the amount of money he brings in will not close his own budget deficit. Nevermind the national debt — he won’t close this year’s budget deficit.

    In fact, if we get the Democrats’ their wet dream of tax policy and take 100% of all annual income of everyone making $250,000.00 a year or more, we still won’t close Barack Obama’s budget deficit.

    So what do we cut? What do we do? That’s the genius of the Paul Ryan pick. He forces the Democrats to confront the reality of their policies, not just their bumper sticker demagoguery packed in grade school marxist rhetoric about fair shares and the rich.” redstate

    “Do you believe any of that?” tim the toady

    i believe that there is not enough money to pay off our current obligations even if the taxes go up to 100%

  179. Barrett says:

    Let me put it this way, if they increased taxes on all brackets by 5%, and they were able to effectively eliminate the deficit and the debt, balance the budget, lower unemployment, etc – I would not complain.

    Since I know this is impossible under the current administration, I feel comfortable saying it.

  180. pitchaboy says:

    Thomas the Tank Engine, far and away the worst followed by Rugrats in Paris. Having said that, I caught up on my sleep in both.

  181. SusyQue says:

    You are in dangerous territory when you speak a falsehood of what the Lord said. He hates lying! It is blasphemous…
    Don’t mess with that which is sacred.

  182. lisab says:

    when the headline was

    “King under 50% in Maine”,

    i thought Dave meant obama was under 50%

  183. lisab says:

    “Unemployment EXPECTEDLY hits 7.5% in a JOBLESS ECONOMY”

    none of this tics down crap

  184. lisab says:

    have you seen the current Time magazine cover?

    it implies the gop is buying the election

  185. Marv says:

    #186 John,

    Yes, I noticed the GOP advantage over the DEMs in the FL primary elections yesterday. The 270,000 vote advantage is significant because neither primary was particularly contested. The GOP had at least three good candidates, but all the attention was directed toward Mack IV, rendering that primary as a no contest proposition.

    This situation indicates high GOP enthusiasm, which will count in November. In addition, the Ryan rollout is spectacular so far. The early indications are, both empircal and anecdotal, that Romney/Ryan have at least neutralized the Medicare issue so far. There are some indications that Romney might even be able to have the Medicare issue turn out to be a net plus for him.

    “If, you want to save Medicare, dump Obamacare”

    “716,000,000 was taken from Medicare to pay for Obamacare”

    I am seeing those ads up here in FL.

  186. Mr.Vito says:

    Tim Bishop’s bar mitzvah episode could spell trouble

    “Eric Semler wanted to throw his son a Bar Mitzvah bash that he would never forget — capped by a fireworks show near the hedge fund investor’s Southampton, N.Y., home — but he needed Rep. Tim Bishop’s help…

    …Bishop agreed to intercede. But before Bishop and his aides completed their work on his behalf, Semler received a request from the congressman’s campaign staff, according to documents obtained by POLITICO and multiple interviews: For a contribution of up to $10,000 to Bishop’s reelection campaign.”

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79722.html

  187. jason says:

    ” 180.jason – unlike some conservatives who rant about things they have never seen, I watched it to see what the fuss was about ”

    If I was understanding, I wouldn’t be an A-hole. But if you are brought up on any charges concerning this issue by the Philly A-hole member activity review committee, I promise to take an objective view.

  188. lisab says:

    sorry, prior week’s Time cover

    For Sale: Asking $2.5 Billion

    How to Buy the White House, the GOP Architect’s Grand Design

  189. Marv says:

    #196 lisab,

    I sure as heckfire hope so. The is America, everything is for sale at the right price.
    My side has more money than their side, so we’ll probably win. It’s the American way, it is one of our founding principles. It’s why we invaded Normandy Beach.

  190. Marv says:

    *”This” is America, everything is for sale at the right price.

  191. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    157.Bitterlaw says:
    August 15, 2012 at 10:56 am
    Wine is for chicks. I don’t give a damn how many HHR men like it. I stand by that statement.

    -Try making wine one year, champ, and then your opinion might change.

    “I also watched Black Swan but only because I heard Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman hook up. It was worth it.”

    -Agreed, although there should have been more.

    “Thomas the Tank Engine.”
    -Saw him in Strasburg (?, near Lancaster),PA. Wonderful little guy, I love his buddy James.

  192. Bitterlaw says:

    have you seen the current Time magazine cover?

    Is this a trick question? Is Time Magazine still published?

  193. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – James is ok. Percy is a whiner. I liked the shows on tv but the movie was long, Really looooooooooooooonnnnnnng.

  194. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Bitterlaw,
    How old is your son? Have you read any of the How To Kill A Dragon series? They are great, very funny!

  195. jason says:

    “193.You are in dangerous territory when you speak a falsehood of what the Lord said.”

    I think you are in even more dangerous territory when you make yourself the judge of what the Lord intends or says.

    “Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s

  196. DW says:

    Surprising observations today, regarding the OH senate race:

    1) The number of PPP(D) polls that have been conducted on this race:

    NINE

    2) The number of PPP(D) polls of this race showing Obama above 49%:

    ZERO

    This race is very much in play.

  197. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    #205 – I never saw the movie, and we had the shows on tape. Lots of laughs Saturday and Sunday mornings.

  198. Marv says:

    #207 jason,

    Roger that and come next year, Ceasar is going to lower our taxes and blow up the EPA……I hope.

  199. jason says:

    ” 204.have you seen the current Time magazine cover?”

    Huh, I didn’t plan to go to the airport today…. I hear they still sell them at Hudson Newstands.

  200. DW says:

    208…correction, of course meant brown, not Obama.

  201. Marv says:

    DW,

    Our G-650 Captain called in said the crew wants to go to Bermuda for the weekend. Is that OK with you?

  202. Barrett says:

    #207 – I agree. As Christians, we walk a fine line when it comes to interpreting what the lord says.

    Some would ask if it’s even our job to dictate his words.

    I say it is, but we must be careful. I don’t think One World Trade Center is going to come crashing down like SusyQue does

  203. newsweak says:

    “I hear they still sell them at Hudson Newstands.”

    Us too… somebody got ripped off for a dollar when we got bought out, but we can still be found at 35 dentist offices in the U.S.

  204. Marv says:

    My basic idea is to just go ahead and follow the Ten Commandments to the best of my ability. Everything will probably work out OK then.

  205. Barrett says:

    #216 – Good call. Though I don’t have a lot of self-confidence, so I find myself constantly praying for the best

  206. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – he is 14. Books? Are they on XBox? He reads for school but he is not a big reader for fun. My 9 year old daughter is a reading machine.

  207. Em Dee says:

    I try to avoid trouble and be a ray of sunshine to everybody.

  208. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    #218 – that is funny. My son is 9 now, and he is a reading machine. Him and my wife got stuck on the train yesterday coming home from NYC, and he practically read a whole book. Everyone else was moaning and groaning, he was sitting in a corner with his book. I told my wife I hope he is like that as a teenager, which seems to be where you are at with your son.

  209. DW says:

    213…sounds great.

  210. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Xbox? – my wife got rid of cable, forget about video games. My son loves going to his friends’ house.

  211. Bitterlaw says:

    My son doesn’t watch much tv (he likes Fox news). He spends time on games, facebook and youtube. He doesn’t talk about girls but that may not be something he wants to talk about with me (since I am so cool).

    No cable? I could not live that life.

  212. walt says:

    USA Today has front page article today about the 90 million U.S. voters who do not plan to vote in November.

    This is a big group of potential voters that Obammer is trying to micro identify various subgroups and target them to turn out in Nov.
    ********************************
    –36% of them could not name the curent VP of U.S. (vs. 59% of general public)

    –44% of these voted for Obammer in 2008 and I assume many of the rest did not vote at all in 2008

    –if they were forced to vote, they would go by a margin of 43% to 18% Obammer over Romney

    –19% say NOTHING could persuade them to vote in Nov.

    —-75% support strong voter ID laws.

  213. Kate Upton says:

    –19% say NOTHING could persuade them to vote in Nov.

    What about me?

  214. janz says:

    A good HHR thread today!

    The Romney ad Dave posted is an effective way to deal with Obama’s divisiveness, in not only his campaign, but how he conducts himself as a leader. He is a leader of ‘groups’ not of a nation.

    EML & Franks — thanks for all your informative comments.

    Marv — I think you may be on to something in saying that the whole Mediscare issue may turn on Obama, where people will be ‘scared’ of his way of dealing with medicare. I’ve never seen so many explanatory articles on Ryan’s medicare reforms — and most of them are positive towards his ideas.

  215. EML says:

    Registrations in FL, NC, NH, PA, IA, CO, NM, NV since 2008:

    -800K D
    -80K R
    +500K I

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html