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Obama Leads By 11% in NM, McCaskill Up 6% in MO

Another poll done by Public Policy Polling for “a coalition of environmental groups” for the state of New Mexico claiming Barack Obama is up by double digits.

PRESIDENT – NEW MEXICO (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%

US SENATE – NEW MEXICO (PPP)
Martin Heinrich (D) 50%
Heather Wilson (R) 41%

This poll was done September 7–9 among 1122 likely voters. Meanwhile, Scott Rasmussen revisits Missouri and shows Claire McCaskill still below 50%, but ahead of Todd Akin by 6% in the race for US Senate.

US SENATE – MISSOURI (Rasmussen)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 49%
Todd Akin (R) 43%

This poll was done September 11th among 500 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 11:45 am
Filed under: General | Comments (420)

420 Responses to “Obama Leads By 11% in NM, McCaskill Up 6% in MO”

  1. Bitterlaw says:

    First. Please hammer Bunu today.

  2. rdelbov says:

    Frist–okay second but the former senator/Doc and his wife are divorcing after 31 years.

  3. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Bunu sucks

  4. GA Voter says:

    Later today…..Viva Las Vegas!!!

    Sigh! But no golf.

  5. SusyQue says:

    Rass Report

    Missouri Senate: McCaskill (D) 49%, Akin (R) 43%
    The fallout appears to linger in the Missouri Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill still holding a six-point lead over Republican challenger Todd Akin. But the race is tightening.

    53% Now Say Auto Bailouts Were Good for the Country
    Support for the bailouts of General Motors and Chrysler and the financial industry have jumped following the Democratic National Convention.

    Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Obama 46%, Romney 45%

    Swing State Daily Tracking: 50% Approve of Obama Performance

    50% Confident In Stability of U.S. Banking Industry

    47% Say America’s Best Days Lie Ahead, Highest Since 2010

    Clinton Myths: A Commentary By John Stossel

  6. rdelbov says:

    PPP finds a lot of democrats as its 51D-33R in this poll.

    In 2008 the exits were 44D-28R-28I

    Romney is winning indies by 5% so this D heavy poll is smelly to me. +11 is a joke as its likely 6% for Obama and not 11.

    Wilson-Heinrich is probably a bit closer like 5% as Heinrich trails Obama.

    Obama gets only 63% of hispanics in this poll.

  7. RB says:

    I think it is funny how all the pundits are speculating on how Romney’s and Obama’s reaction will shape a race 50+ days away. The average person like my wife will only hear that there was a tragedy in Libya, but not rush to blogs to see how the pundits react. That being said Romney should be prepared at anything the media will try to throw his way, as they will try to play gotcha.

  8. nOpe says:

    Hilary: We deplore religious intolerance… …and on the same day… Bill: …but how about those wacky Mormons?

  9. jenny says:

    yawn, more blue polls. Romney gave a great statement. He looked presidential. Obama looked weak!

  10. SusyQue says:

    BREAKING NEWS: Marine Contingent Being Sent to Libya

  11. Annie says:

    Did you all see on Drudge the article on how the DNC put up video of Russian warships on the big screen when a retired American admiral was speaking at their convention?

  12. Annie says:

    Ha! And just what will that small number of Marines do in Libya? It’s all for show – to demonstrate that Obama is a tough guy. Unfortunately, he is a “tough guy” after the fact. Anyone who knows anything about the culture, history, and politics of North Africa and the Middle East could have seen what happened yesterday coming the day Obama took office, and certainly after the so-called “Arab Spring.”

  13. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    10.BREAKING NEWS: Marine Contingent Being Sent to Libya

    Comment by SusyQue

    A day late and a dollar short. They need to maintain a rapid response force in the area. Obammer ia too busy slashing the military budget.

  14. Wobbles says:

    No marines were protecting the embassy. It was outsourced to the Libyan extremists.

  15. GA Voter says:

    Would love to hear my bro-in-law take on this. He is stationed at Central Comm and has a pretty high rank. Flies to the region monthly. I know he wants this administration gone.

  16. Annie says:

    RB – The thing is – People should judge how a president and potential president react when there is a crisis. Like I stated, it took Obama over three days to react in 2008 to the fact of Russia invading the country of Georgia, while McCain immediately made a statement against the aggression. And then, there was the apology tour when Obama first took office. Even with the current happenings in Libya and Egypt, Obama waited to come out with his statement this morning (a weak, rather shaky statement). We heard more from that frowzy frau Hillary Clinton… Romney, on the other hand, looked and sounded strong and on point.

    Obama seems like another Jimmy Carter. Only without the gut instinct for what constitutes American values and interests. And, though there will only ever be one Reagan – Romney seems more like the great man of the 1980s than I’ve seen in quite awhile.

  17. DW says:

    This seems to be developing into Obama’s version of Jimmy Carter’s failed hostage rescue by helicopter.

  18. Songandaprayer says:

    rdelbov, Frist is speaking at my fundraiser Saturday night. Kinda awkward timing, considering we spent a lot to get him.

  19. hugh says:

    This is not good for obama. There is no one to bomb. Lob missiles at who??? Its not like in Iran in 1908 where you know who to blame. So the reaction is not the important thing here, its how did it happen. All you need to know is that obama had the libyans not our marines defending our embassy. That can not be explained away. Finally, reality is setting in pretty fast on the obama bounce. Once this thing is back to even and its clear that obama is not a sure winner as is being said by every dem and oh btw many of our loser republican pundits, what does he have left to keep his base together and ours depressed?

  20. hugh says:

    1980 oops

  21. rdelbov says:

    On a side note say goodbye to Wolf Camera as they are closing their 260 stores. +1000 people will lose their jobs as lots of ugly retail space will open up.

  22. Annie says:

    Did anyone see how Iran supposedly was the one who started stirring things up with telling everyone in the ME that Coptic Christians in the USA were responsible for a film that wasn’t flattering about Mohammed? As if the Coptic Christians have not been suffering enough since the Muslim Brotherhood took over. The events of the past day in Egypt and Libya were planned out, and not the result of passions of the moment. I heard there are rumblings going on in Tunisia and Algeria now, too.

  23. Annie says:

    Maybe people were subconsciously thinking Bill Clinton was running for office when they gave Obama a post-convention bounce. It seems the numbers only moved for Obama after Clinton’s glowing speech and the barrage of ads featuring Clinton speaking appeared on the tube. Thing is – Bill Clinton governed as a moderate and worked with the Republican Congress, and Obama is the opposite.

  24. RB says:

    Annie- I agree with you, but the MSM is trying to make the statements the story, not the actual story the story. I do think that this story along with the Isreali/Iran story will make Americans more apprehensive to our current foreign policy.

  25. DW says:

    26 – witness says?

    Which one, the guy with the cell phone in his mouth dragging the body?

  26. Ho-Dogg says:

    This was a coordinated attack on 9-11 to avenge the killing of Bin Laden. The protests were cover CNN is now saying. Maybe if Obama still attended security briefings it could have been prevented.

  27. Frank says:

    Rasmussen Swing-State 7-day Tracking Poll

    no leaners

    45/46

    with leaners

    48/47

    indies
    34/48
    40/50

    Romney 12% of Dem
    Obama 6% of GOP

  28. Hugh says:

    Indy numbers out of line relative to about every other poll. Still I will take it

  29. Wobbles says:

    Frank,

    Romney-O #s?

  30. Jeff G. says:

    It’s clear that only solution is to restrict freedom of speech. We need to have a law that bars people from speaking out in an offensive manner about a religion that may react violently to the slightest criticism. Since that is the de facto standard by virtue of the Obama Administration’s support for it, why not make it the law of the land?

  31. BayernFan says:

    What are those numbers?

  32. Frank says:

    Those numbers posted are from Rasmussen’s 7-day Swing-State tracking poll.

    The first number is always the GOP.

    The leaners are falling Romney’s way.

    Frank

  33. Ned Stark says:

    When numbers are reported, please indicate which numbers belong to who so that everyone is on the same page.

  34. Ned Stark says:

    Gallup 50/43 Obama leading.

    On Fox last night, did Rove say that Gallup was using a D+8 model?

  35. SusyQue says:

    #34…Jeff…That will never happen. Freedom of Speech and freedom of religion are in our constitution.

  36. ericinky says:

    the problem with gallup is that it’s a 7 day track. still has alot of those big nights for O on it.

  37. J T says:

    Gallup D+8 and RV? Just criminal. Axlerod got to them

  38. J T says:

    Can we trust Gallup now, that they have been rousted by the DNC?

    How do you trust a pollster that says it will not do LV polls until October?

  39. Pitchaboy says:

    Gallup used the convention bounce as an excuse to change their model

  40. Bitterlaw says:

    SusyQue really never gets sarcasm.

  41. Wobbles says:

    Breaking News:

    AQ attack behind yesterday embassy seizures.

    Intelligence failed. Obama did not listen to the intelligence reports.

    He is off to Vegas baby.

  42. J T says:

    Yes Pitch. Gallup was awful in 2008 too. They were only 17th rated in accuracy on final polling.

  43. jenny says:

    I saw the video for the first time this morning and I was horrified. Obama is toast. The media is trying to deflect attention away from Obama’s incompetence by criticizing Romney.

  44. rdelbov says:

    Here is the RCP map from today:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html

    221 Obama 191 Romney

    Its been this week for a week or two. Actually since before convention.

    So how does this square with the idea of using RCP averages in early september to say anything? Even RCP calls states tossups where polling is unclear and foggy.

    Oh I guess you can say is ahead 221 to 191 but but that’s another way of saying Obama is nearly 50 votes short of a EC win. Yet clearly neither Obama or Romney, per RCP, have a clear advantage in getting to 270.

  45. Emerica says:

    Ingraham says throw the bums out

    INGRAHAM: And I’ve said this time and again. If you can’t beat Barack Obama with this record, then shut down the party. Shut it down. Start new, with new people. Because this is a ‘gimme’ election, or at least it should be. And the millions of dollars, I keep going back to the millions and millions and millions of dollars that are paid to these political consultants. Election after election, we hire people who’ve lost previous campaigns. Who’ve run campaigns that have failed. Who have messaged campaigns where the message fell flat and they keep getting rehired. I don’t understand that.

  46. J T says:

    46. The MSM will cover for him, Wobbles. The Kardashin’s 24/7 ya know.

  47. tanda says:

    Anybody have last 10 days Gallup results?

  48. J T says:

    49. Rdel, I will not even follow RCP, until they only include LV polls in their average

  49. J T says:

    52. You better look at RAS, troll. He uses LV, RCP uses bogus RV polls from PEW and Gallup

  50. Jeff G. says:

    #40,

    Again, sometimes sarcasm does not need to be followed by “/sarc” to be obvious … or maybe it does for some.

  51. Wobbles says:

    Newhouse: Ohio is going to be a very tight race. There has been some stuff written about us pulling out of the race there, or something like that. My response: When hell freezes over. We feel confident that we’re going to win the state. Make no mistake, it’s tough sledding, and we understand that it’ll be a challenge. It’s a difficult state for us. But we pull out when hell freezes over.

  52. Songandaprayer says:

    JT (55) You have a link to Ras, no Toss Ups?

  53. jenny says:

    Who is Newhouse?

  54. Jeff G. says:

    Gallup’s final poll in 2008 had Obama up 53-40. The fact that Obama won does not mean their polling was accurate – not by a longshot.

  55. rdelbov says:

    RCP does a listing without tossups for folks who don’t understand what polls and polling means. Its not a surprise a troll posts that map here.

  56. Robbie says:

    On Fox last night, did Rove say that Gallup was using a D+8 model?

    Comment by Ned Stark — September 12, 2012 @ 1:08 pm

    I watched, but was unaware if he was referring to the current model or one earlier in the year.

  57. Wobbles says:

    Head campaign person for Romney, an actual live body, not an anon. source.

  58. Wobbles says:

    It is d plus 8, the current model.

  59. Robbie says:

    59.Who is Newhouse?

    Comment by jenny — September 12, 2012 @ 1:23 pm

    Romney’s pollster.

  60. RB says:

    Gallup and Ras are seeing 2 different elections. Ras has Obama’s lead down to 1 and today the JA numbers started to decline. This indicates a fading bounce. To know what Gallup is seeing now, I look at the 3 day JA numbers. Gallup had shrunk from 52/42 to 50/44, but today that number ticked up to 51/42 showing Obama maintaining the bounce. Does Gallup post their party ID?

  61. J T says:

    Jeff, what was the final in 2008? 53-46? If so undercounted GOP turnout by 6% on final polling

  62. Robbie says:

    63.Head campaign person for Romney, an actual live body, not an anon. source.

    Comment by Wobbles — September 12, 2012 @ 1:25 pm

    No, he’s Romney’s pollster.

    Matt Rhoades is the campaign manager

    Stuart Stevens is the chief strategist.

  63. J T says:

    RB, Rove said D+8 in a RV poll last night

  64. jason says:

    ” Wow… Obama up 100 EV according to RCP. ”

    Wow is right, in this map Obama already loses 3 of his pickups from Bush 2004 for a total of 41 EV’s and FL is blue due to one single poll.

    Give Romney FL and he is only 22 EV’s short. Ohio and Iowa or NH would do it.

    But if it gives you comfort enjoy it.

  65. Songandaprayer says:

    Rasmussen No Toss Ups gives Obama 265 with Colorado being undecided.

  66. J T says:

    Back to Kos, Robbie. did you chat with Halperin or ABC news today?

    Frickin Union Troll

  67. jan says:

    At least they know it wouldn’t be a cake-walk. There won’t be any Bush circa 2000 caught flat-footed.

  68. voice of reason says:

    If we adjust PPP for plus and minus three it comes to 50-45 Obama. 5 point lead is the same as the last NM poll. And Wilson is only down three. Why would the GOP superpacs leave NM and not run ads for Wilson???

  69. jenny says:

    I thought Rove said that Ohio, Virginia and Florida belonged to Romney?

  70. bio mom says:

    gallup 7 day includes all of the DNC convention days as well as the weekend. Will stabilize probably next Tuesday.

  71. J T says:

    Funny how Robbie, never posts anything negative or leaks from the Obama campaign, like how they lost NC and Indiana already.

    Only bogus tweets from the MSM and Faux News. Robbie probably works for the Dem Party in KY.

  72. J T says:

    Wow Mom. Thats a long time. Of course it is RV with a D+8 sample.

  73. Wobbles says:

    Halperin and Karl are right wingers.

    I am now quoting Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers for a more centrist view.

  74. bio mom says:

    Media are just trying to do CYA for Obama on his spectacular failure on the “Arab Spring” and leading from behind and his pathetic initial statement last night. They know this can help Romney so they are going to concentrate on idiocy like when he made his statement, etc. Baloney. We want a president who will lead, not this nothing one we are stuck with right now.

    Ingraham can go soak her head. Let her run for office if she is so smart about politics instead of just running her big mouth and throwing darts at the only man who can defeat Obama, making his job harder.

  75. Polaris says:

    I am not shocked that Gallup is using D+8. It’s wrong but I’m not shocked, and yes it would seem they used the convention blip to cover the change.

    The important point is that Gallup seems to be very afraid to switch to the traditional LV model even though they should since it’s after Labor day. One has to wonder why (Justice Dept to Gallup: Nice Polling Co there. Pity if something were to happen to it…..)

    In addition to all that, please remember that Gallup unlike Ras is a SEVEN day track and they still have some outlier samples on the track. It won’t be until Monday that they are gone.

    -Polaris

  76. jan says:

    Gallup is being blackmailed. I don’t know if you can call them reliable now. There should be a cliff note next to each poll from them stating such.

  77. Pitchaboy says:

    This Libya thing is making it look like 1980 all over again. Okay Bitter, this is written to annoy you.

  78. J T says:

    Bottom line, is that Gallup had Obama winning by 13% in their final 2008 polling?

  79. J T says:

    Jan, I have a feeling gallup will never show Romney leading. They are dug in with their bogus RV haevy Dem sample polling.

    RAS is the only one to watch

  80. Polaris says:

    #84 Yes, and that was their base RV poll (the same one we are talking about now). Gallup in 2008 was horrid, but because they were horrid in favor of Obama, no one really remembers that.

    -Polaris

  81. J T says:

    Polaris, RCP is no better. I realize they are a left center site now, but they should throw out all RV polling at this point

  82. rdelbov says:

    Ironically when RAS and PPP had the same numbers Scott was Gold but now he’s back to being a political hack.

    I should have know to assume trolls would know what “tossup” means.

  83. bio mom says:

    Look at gallup this way: In a 7 day tracker you are replacing the same weekday one week apart. So today we are replacing last Tuesday with this Tuesday. The big Obama days, W, R, F, Sat, Sun are all still in the tracker. They must roll off before the gallup poll can stabilize away from the “sugar high” of the convention.

  84. voice of reason says:

    What happened to all those NC trolls saying that demographics made it impossible for Romney to win their state? Haven’t seen them in a long time.

  85. Polaris says:

    #87 If they did throw out all RVs (as I agree they should) it wouldn’t fit the “Obama is inevitable” narrative that the MSM is desperately trying to sell and is getting more and more theadbare by the day…no by the hour.

    The fact is that anyone that really fisks these polls can see at a glance that this is a close election likely determined by turnout. This augures a 2004 type election.

    -Polaris

  86. Greymarch says:

    Since the Gallup poll is a 7 day tracking poll, Today was bound to be Obama’s best day, because all of the Romney RNC convention bounce would be removed from the poll, and all of Obama’s DNC convention bounce would be added to the poll. Slowly, but surely The Gallup poll will even out. However, if Gallup is using a +8 Dem to skew the poll, then Romney will never tie nor take the lead in the Gallup poll.

    A week from today, Romney will be within 2-4 points of Obama in the Gallup poll.

    When Gallup switches to LV in October, it should also help Romney. However in October 2008 Gallup switched to LV, and it didn’t really help McCain.

  87. messy says:

    #83: How? Romney isn’t looking at all like Reagan, he’s looking like Landon.

  88. Robbie says:

    72.Back to Kos, Robbie. did you chat with Halperin or ABC news today?

    Frickin Union Troll

    Comment by J T — September 12, 2012 @ 1:28 pm

    Nap time must be over at day care.

  89. Polaris says:

    #92 Gallup in 2008 was terrible because the circumstances around that election were so anomalous. In that election the energy and momentum and enthusiasm (all of which tend to help LVs) were clearly on the side of the Dems. In hindsight in 2008 it should be no suprise that the LV model didn’t help McCain. I should not LV MODELS because Gallup clearly didn’t know what they were doing in 2008 and came out with three different polls….all badly wrong.

    -Polaris

  90. Pitchaboy says:

    When you skip national security meetings to go campaign and raise money, you get a national security disaster. MSM trying to cover it up as a protest gone bad. The morons dont know or dont care that most of us can put 9/11 and Al-Qeda attack together.

  91. Polaris says:

    #95 I meant to say…”I should note LV MODELS…..” in the noted post.

    -Polaris

  92. Wobbles says:

    In Ras, Romney should be up 1 or 2.

  93. Polaris says:

    #93 Not really. Landon was pre-internet and even pre-mass global communications. That makes a big difference.

    In this type of election, it’s a referendum on the incumbant…and that’s not where Obama wants to be. Obama himself said that if he couldn’t fix the economy in three years, he’d be a one term president.

    -Polaris

  94. Wobbles says:

    This was not a protest over a movie. It was an AQ attack.

  95. Sir Albert says:

    I watched the whole Romney statement and he kicked much arse. The press unhinged. He showed manliness, moxey, tough resolve. Great taking questions. Great fuel for the debates. He will crush ooo.

  96. Polaris says:

    #98 Wait until tomorrow. Obama had a huge outlier sample on Sunday in the Ras Track. It rolls off tonight.

    -Polaris

  97. Polaris says:

    #100 Indeed, and it was coordinated to happen on 9/11 as payback by AQ.

    Nice going Potus, and really nice going Sec Clinton for APOLOGIZING to AQ.

    Nice.

    -Polaris

  98. voice of reason says:

    Romney sure looked like Reagan at his news conference today.

  99. Wobbles says:

    The embassy was also not secured by marines.

  100. rdelbov says:

    JT

    I tend to agree. RV polling is mostly junk right now.

  101. Wobbles says:

    Media and some phony Republicans are attacking Romney. They know this has hurt Obama.

  102. Wobbles says:

    When the media hates a Republican, it is a good thing.

  103. jenny says:

    #104
    Yes, Romney looked great!

  104. Jeff G. says:

    #93,

    With the exception that Romney will get at least 262 more EVs than Landon won.

  105. Corey says:

    There is a liberal blog out there this week in which it was said that Mark Halperin of MSNBC and Time was a Republican and a former political adviser.

    They apparently think he is the same person as former Bob Dole speechwriter Mark Helprin.

  106. Bitterlaw says:

    Are 107 and 108 by the same Wobbles or dueling Wobbles?

  107. voice of reason says:

    Romney took questions from the press. I am the President Obama …. not so much.

  108. Wobbles says:

    112. Those were not the real Wobbles.

  109. Polaris says:

    #113 Of course Obama didn’t take questions from the press. I strongly suspect WE know more about what’s going on in the middle east than Obama does right now…and it just bit him in the posterior.

    It’s amature hour. Anything that Obama can say right now would make him look even worse.

    -Polaris

  110. Dustbin & Melistless says:

    ” What happened to all those NC trolls saying that demographics made it impossible for Romney to win their state? Haven’t seen them in a long time.”

    We are on assignment.

    Isn’t Robbie filling in ok?

  111. jenny says:

    Why is Romney struggling in Ohio?

  112. hugh says:

    Bio Mom you are absolutely right. With the 7 day polling Obama should be at his best numbers possibly through Friday and then we should see a quick correction in gallup. Btw when switching to the lv model gallup even said it could be a 5 point swing.

  113. Polaris says:

    #118 Yeah, but that’s Gallup doing “CYA” so they can suddenly change their model to show a Romney surge. They’re right but that’s because the RV model they are using is so bad…so it gives them room to “get it right” when they go to LVs. The fact they haven’t already done so is….let’s not go there.

    -Polaris

  114. Dem Troll Headquarters says:

    You guys are too hard on Robbie. He worked his ass off trying to make Romney into a loser in the primaries, and was given a couple of months off to lick his wounds and attend some re-orientation.

    But you have to admit he returned in full force and has doggedly stuck to his Romney bad – Obama good assignment through good polls and bad polls and relentless attacks from the troll patrol.

    We think Robbie is one of our finest trolls, and if Obama wins he will be justly rewarded and promoted to trolling a larger website like Hotair.

  115. Polaris says:

    #121 Like I said before: It’s amature hour at the White House.

    That said Obama is the clear winner in Foreign policy. I know this because the democrats and media tell me so (sarc).

    -Polaris

  116. Wobbles says:

    ” Why is Romney struggling in Ohio?”

    80% of Republicans in Ohio hate Romney.

  117. Robbie says:

    This place is classic.

    I’m talked about more than Obama.

    Priorities, anyone?

  118. BayernFan says:

    Its been amateur hour for almost 4 years in the White House.

    I am going to go ahead and worry some that this may form a rally round hte President moment. You would think that incidents like this would either do that or the opposite, and if so, polls would move solidly one way or the other.

    Maybe not, if the electorate is as divided as it is.

    Just think what will happen to the campaign were Bibi to attack Iran before Election Day.

    The media will want to put a cigarette holder in Obamas mouth and call him FDR, and treat Romney like Willkie.

    As I said earlier, Romney and all the GOP have to completely ditch the bipartisan foreign policy model and not give Obama room to breathe on that issue. It is a matter of national security to replace this administration, and Romney needs to be ready willing and able to engage in all out trench warfare here.

    His statement today is a sign that he understands this. No McCain Suspending Campaign garbage here.

  119. jenny says:

    #125, Romney is much better politician than McCain.

  120. jason says:

    ” This place is classic.

    I’m talked about more than Obama.”

    If by talked you mean ridiculed it could be.

    “Priorities, anyone?”

    THIS is classic considering Obama can do no wrong in your eyes and you have given him a free ride since you have been here.

  121. janz says:

    I think it was bio mom who said that the two political sides will see one event in a completely different light.

    For instance conservatives see Romney as stepping up to plate, answering questions in a presidential way — taking charge like a POTUS is expected to do, when they are the leader of the supposed ‘Free World.’

    Leftists, though, are saying this is Romney’s “campaign suspension” moment, tieing him to the McCain debacle in ’08. They are chiding his actions, saying this is yet another event that could derail his run for the presidency.

    We have become two nations of people, having opposite visions and expectations, all living in one country, of late….

  122. rdelbov says:

    One must do all that golfing and campaign fundraising events.

    Those briefings are just so deathly dull with all those warnings.

  123. Frank says:

    98

    “In Ras, Romney should be up 1 or 2.”

    Comment by Wobbles — September 12, 2012 @ 1:42 pm

    Wobbles,

    He is with leaners, 48-47

    Frank

  124. BayernFan says:

    janz… if the weirdly weighted polls are right insofar as independents are concerned, and Romney is winning independents, then I hope that an event like this can solidify his standing with them.

    As I have said to my Dem friends here in Indpls, if Romney wins GOP voters by over 90%, and wins independents by over say 5%, then he wins.

    Right?

    2004 anyone?

  125. DW says:

    By any objective measure, this lack of Obama preparation and response is at least ten times worse than Bush’s Katrina prep and response. The problem is the media isn’t using objective measures.

  126. Wobbles says:

    Frank, I meant about tomorrow w/o leaners. Also, look who headed the cairo embassy assault:

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/zawahiris-brother-cairo-embassy-assault_652217.html

  127. jason says:

    It’s come to this:

    MSNBC host: ‘Who’s More Dangerous, the Supreme Leader in Tehran or Netanyahu?’

  128. jason says:

    Objective reporting:

    “LAWRENCE O’DONNELL: One point we know with Netanyahu, as Joe can tell you, anybody’s who’s who’s been in the room with Netanyahu, you don’t have to be with him long to know that there’s only one way, only one way, to get along with him and that is to agree with every single word he says, which Mitt Romney apparently does.”

  129. BayernFan says:

    Obama is NOT entitled to a pass on foreign policy issues. Not now. Not ever.

  130. DW says:

    RI_01

    Cicilline 49
    DOherty 43

    D – internal – 9/10/12

  131. jason says:

    This will make Robbie proud of his Messiah:

    “US to fly unmanned spy drones over eastern Libya to look for jihad camps tied to attack on embassy”

    Will the camps have “Jihad Camp Involved in Embassy Attack” signs to facilitate identification.

  132. DW says:

    Paladin/CFP tweet: VA poll out very soon. Results validate the Gravis poll from yesterday.

  133. Robbie says:

    THIS is classic considering Obama can do no wrong in your eyes and you have given him a free ride since you have been here.

    Comment by jason — September 12, 2012 @ 2:11 pm

    Show me one comment where I’ve praised Obama.

    You can’t because I haven’t.

    And I don’t talk about Obama because I believe he’s irrelevent in this election.

    If Romney does what he needs to do, the election is over. It won’t matter one bit what Obama says or does.

  134. BaynernFanFan says:

    Romney is NOT entitled to a pass on foreign policy issues. Not now. Not ever.

  135. bio mom says:

    Apparently several of the usual Republican beltway types are criticizing Romney too. Peggy Noonan this morning on FoxNews apparently, and Ed Rogers and some McCain ex staffers. I think these people really want him to lose.

  136. NedStark says:

    There had to be some intelligence out there on this attack.

  137. brucefdb says:

    http://conservatives4palin.com/2012/09/governor-palin-apparently-president-obama-cant-see-egypt-and-libya-from-his-house.html

    We already know that President Obama likes to “speak softly” to our enemies. If he doesn’t have a “big stick” to carry, maybe it’s time for him to grow one.

    – Sarah Palin

  138. MD says:

    Romney stuck to his guns. Awesome.

  139. bio mom says:

    I have been trying to link to the press conference by Romney with no luck. I like to hear things myself instead of relying on press reports or from others, even friendlies.

  140. Yolanda says:

    Obama is *soaring* in InTrade right now. Don’t know what to make of that….

  141. Wobbles says:

    It’s the same group of Losers, including Noonan, a belt way person, who voted for Obama in 2008.

  142. MD says:

    Noonan has been dead to me since 2008.

  143. Waingro says:

    Romney did an EXCELLENT job today in front of the State Run media.

    I’m actually very happy that he decided to answer questions.

    It showed that he can handle the heat and be strong and articulate on his feet.

    Honestly, he did Barry’s work for him today, while Barry refused to answer questions and got on a plane to Vegas.

    Who looked more presidential today? It’s not even close.

  144. Waingro says:

    #150, biomom, here you go. The video is below the fold linked back from politico:

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/332801.php

  145. DW says:

    http://www.rollcall.com/politics/2012_race_rating_map.html

    Just noticed that RollCall, whose predictions in the last election were horribly wrong…totally missed the GOP wave…THEY are now saying that in the house, Illinois 10, 11, 12 and 17 are ALL tossups.

  146. Wobbles says:

    And look at Noonan and that other person’s remarks. They are always a cliche or vague.

    If we remember, Harry Reid declared the War in Iraq lost – I believe he was on the floor of the Senate (it does not matter). Was he not allowed to be critical?

  147. MD says:

    Any “conservative” who stays home, votes third party or through sheer lumay votes for Obama in Nov is dead as well.

  148. jason says:

    I thought Obama always said that as a state senator in IL he “vehemently opposed the Iraq invasion”.

    Is it ok for state senators to comment on foreign policy but not Presidential candidates?

  149. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    Romney did fine in that video, Christ I hate the press

  150. MD says:

    Obama was also against raising the debt ceiling in 06.

  151. jason says:

    “And I don’t talk about Obama because I believe he’s irrelevent in this election.”

    LOL

  152. MD says:

    That should be a debate question but it won’t be.

  153. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    Pravda

    Izvestia

    Solzhenitsyn was right, it CAN happen here…

  154. jason says:

    The truth comes out, but let’s blame the movie, more convenient for Obama:

    “The deadly attack on the U.S. Consulate in Libya may have been a planned operation and not a spontaneous protest that turned violent, U.S. officials told the New York Times and CNN on Wednesday. Initial reports suggested that protesters in Benghazi, Libya, were angry about an online video that mocked the Muslim Prophet Muhammad, and then attacked the consulate, killing U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other foreign service workers. But now, according to the New York Times, officials suspect that “an organized group had either been waiting for an opportunity to exploit like the protests over the video or perhaps even generated the protests as a cover for their attack.”

  155. MD says:

    We don’t have a free press.

  156. Wobbles says:

    Noonan also claims that she was bamboozled by Obama.

  157. DW says:

    VIRGINIA

    Romney 50
    Obama 44

    500 Certain to vote

    9/11/12

    Paladin/CFP

  158. jenny says:

    Dave please ban fake polls!

  159. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    Jesus, its alternate realities, hearing the press report it you’d think Mitt shiit his pants in public and t*tty groped a reporter

  160. MD says:

    Dead to me. I don’t care. Same with Smerconish and Powell.

  161. DW says:

    169 – Yes, Dave, please ban PPP(D)

  162. Wobbles says:

    Time to pull aid from libya and egypt.

  163. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    Can you imagine if Bush were President, embassy staff being murdered due to insufficient security and Bush was out campaigning?

  164. MD says:

    No bias! None! That is worse than Baghdad Bob.

  165. MD says:

    It would be the lead everywhere. I fuucking hate them.

  166. Waingro says:

    #169, please ban people who use “!” after every post.

  167. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    Gallup!

    2008!

  168. bio mom says:

    Thank you Waingro. I was now able to hear the statement and press conference. Romney looked calm, in control, and presidential and pointed out that the press was mixed up about the time frame of events, confusing the Cairo rioting, the embarrassing apology from the administration, Romney’s condemnation of it, and then the Libya thing which happened after. But I am beginning to despair. Not because of Romney but because I think the deck is so stacked against him to protect this loser in the White House. And when the Republicans pile on too, it is just the last straw. Very depressed about our country right now.

  169. GF says:

    168- DW, with leaners it’s 52/47, right? ;-)

    Good afternoon, all.

  170. Bitterlaw says:

    Breaking News – I am now authorized to report that MD was on a secret mission for the past several days. He has safely left the city of Chicago. He actually did visit Addison Street (not Addisonst). He wants to thank GF for arranging safe transport.

  171. DW says:

    180 – We don’t ask for leaners in our poll, but that would be about right.

  172. Bitterlaw says:

    Is today the day to make “banning requests?” Good. I would like to ban the “possessive tense” in regard to sports teams/ Statements like, “We aare going to beat . . . ” or “We look good this season” are annoying. Unless your name is on the roster, you are not beating anybody.

  173. Waingro says:

    Ugh. I didn’t realize Ras’s generic ballot shifted to the Dems as well.

    Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight

    Four generic ballot polls released this week: Dems +2 (Rasmussen), Dems +4 (YouGov), Dems +6 (Ipsos), Dems +6 (PPP

  174. Marv says:

    I am very proud of Gov Romney. He acted the way a traditional American President should act at his press conference this morning. He will make a great Commander in Chief. His opponent in this election, that would be Obama, high-tailed out of town for a fund raiser in Las Vegas. He is a pathetic figure, non-deserving of the respect normally afforded a US President.

  175. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    2008.

  176. Wobbles says:

    ” Can you imagine if Bush were President, embassy staff being murdered due to insufficient security and Bush was out campaigning?”

    The Democrats would not comment out of respect for the Presidency.

  177. jason says:

    Let’s ban people who call for banning people.

  178. GF says:

    BL, I’ve been out of contact since bringing him home, but let him know that as fun as it was, we can’t afford bring the Delilah’s crew again; that and the Goose bill drove the trip costs WAY over budget. The A-Hole account is dwindling fast, and I am short on ideas as to how best replenish the coffers.

    (An anonymous note from Texas said we should host a fundraiser on Borad Street with a Santa in a pillory; $5 for the beer cans/bottles tossed at point blank range. What say you?)

  179. Jenny Red Balls says:

    “2016” is better. Watch it.

  180. GF says:

    *”…on how best to replenish the coffers.”

    Also, “BROAD STREET.” Typos are killing me today.

  181. SoHope says:

    as long as bunu is banned, im cool

  182. DW says:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

    anyone insterested in seeing how RCP has drifted to the left over the years, just look at their electoral college map.

    They have AZ IN MO GA and SC as only LEAN Romney. Incredible. Arizona? Their own RCP average is Romney +10.3, and PPP(D) could only twist it to Romney +9 in a poll taken right after the D convention.

    If that’s not a Likely R state, I don’t know what is. But there is more…on the blue side, they have NJ as a Likely Obama state, which is accurate, but the average is the inverse of AZ at Obama by 10.5 points.

  183. jason says:

    We can always dip into the A-hole Endowment Fund and pay it back later.

  184. BaynernFanFan says:

    148: He has a bunch of big sticks in the form of the drone army.

  185. GF says:

    RCP has never impressed me. I was taken in when I first read them in 2000 and they had Bush clobbering Gore 446-92 in the EC (they had Bush eking out all the big states except for NY. and Gore clung to his NE base and HI; it was ridiculous).

  186. Brendon says:

    Ban me! I’ve been a long term plant.

  187. Resident A-Hole says:

    194- Hopefully that “endowment” is not based on B cups…

  188. Bitterlaw says:

    GF – The Santa incident was in 1967. There is no market for it anyw more.

    MD has to either stop submitting his claims to be paid for mileage when he runs OR we have to stop paying him for parking at the Philly A-hole Clubhouse (which still makes no sense since we own the lot).

  189. DW says:

    PPP(D) is out with MT poll

    Romney by only 5

    Tester by 2

    what a pathetic bunch of trash

  190. Robbie says:

    John Fund has a pretty good take on the current polling at NRO.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/316565/much-ado-about-polling-john-fund

  191. DW says:

    also PPP says the GOP house candidate up only three points

  192. GF says:

    BL, we shouldn’t have to pay; he threatened to take your spot as I recall.

  193. GF says:

    201- I believe a number of Hedgehoggers were spot on with the PPP MT trash.

  194. Bitterlaw says:

    GF – the A-hole Calendar was a good idea until we got too literal.

  195. DW says:

    So PPP(D) has the same spread in MT that they had back in April, but the new poll was taken right after the D convention.

    Rasmussen’s 55/38 from last month sounds much more accurate

  196. Bitterlaw says:

    MD did a lot of strange things when the Goose was loose.

  197. Polaris says:

    I think the Paladin/CFP polls are legit, but I can’t get much info on them which is why I tend to discount them unless confirmed by other polling. I know that Paladin (CFP) is a legit registry of Certified Financial Professionals.

    As for RCP, even as late at 2004 I would have called them slightly right of center, but Tom Bevan has apparently drunk the Obama kool-aid and once you go “Obama” you never go back. I know that Jay Cost fairly recently left RCP in disguist and now submits his work to the Weekly Standard (among other places). I am not sure how much longer Trende will put up with RCP.

    -Polaris

  198. GF says:

    I concur; the close-ups were particularly unsettling (March’s pictorial tribute to Nat’l. Colorectal Cancer Awareness Month scared me silly).

  199. jason says:

    RCP wants to appear balanced. However they are heavy on articles from far left sites sprinkled with a few mainstream conservatives.

    They can’t resist one article from Kornacki, Krugman, Dowd, Robinson, Reich, Shrum, etc. and the New Yorker and TNR writers who are just bent on attacking the GOP and covering for Obama.

    Tom Bevan is definitely a Dem. But I like Sean Trende.

  200. J T says:

    DW, good to see the IL-10 and 11 moved to tossup. IL-17 and IL-12 should be lean GOP though.

  201. Brandon says:

    209 can’t possibly be a serious post about Paladin…

  202. J T says:

    Yes, Sean Trende is the only Rightie left at RCP. Bevan is in the tank for Obama

  203. jason says:

    I think DW can now retire in triumph.

  204. jason says:

    213. Polaris is not a jokester.

  205. Polaris says:

    #213 I did say that I wasn’t able to find any information about Paladin/CFP so I didn’t take them seriously. If it IS a fake poll (which is what I thought at first), then that should be stated clearly.

    The reason I wonder, is I am seeing their posted results in other places than here, so I wonder. For the record, no show work…no count by me.

    -Polaris

  206. GF says:

    Brandon, he is totally serious. With his blessing, Paladin now moves into it’s rightful place at the forefront of modern polling.

  207. GF says:

    217 merely confirms what jason and I wrote.

  208. Polaris says:

    #218 I didn’t say that. Show me where I can contract Paladin/CFP and see their unvarnished polls. Then we’ll talk. I said I *think* they’re legit…I am not sure. For a long time I was sure they were phoney.

    Regardless, no showie workie, no credit by me (deliberate misspellings).

    -Polaris

  209. GF says:

    Polaris, where else have you seen Paladin/CFP? I know that the Atlas dedicated a full thread to taking apart and examining the firm’s methodology, but I had not seen the results elsewhere…

  210. peepeepee says:

    “it IS a fake poll (which is what I thought at first), then that should be stated clearly.”

    We will try not to forget.

  211. GF says:

    220- I don’t know how to tell you…I’ll leave it to MD or DW. We could be in for a Chuck Graham caliber moment…

  212. jason says:

    221. Are you referring to that hit piece Natehack did on Paladin?

  213. Uncle Joe says:

    STAND UP!

  214. Cory (MMMMMMM) says:

    The cognitive dissonance is getting out of control around here.

    As Romney’s loss gets closer and closer, you can see the cracks opening up in the Republican party. Not here though. Everything is rainbows and sunshine around here. Look how Presidential Romney looked while he was pissing away the Presidential election!! He’s the man! Reminded me of Reagan.

  215. GF says:

    jason, did I miss Silverfish fisking CFP? I was referring to a comedy gold USelectionatlas.org forum that resulted from our German friend Benny publishing the results of a poll over there. Total classic thread from those Marxists.

  216. Polaris says:

    #221 I have seen Paladin/CFP quoted in a spinkling of right-leaning sites. It’s possible they are taking them from here, but that didn’t seem to be the case. I’ll try to look up the Atlas analysis.

    The point is this: Whoever is posting the Paladin/CFP polls should tell us where he’s getting that info so we can see for ourselves. Otherwise, it should not be counted by any of us…regardless if it’s real or not.

    -Polaris

  217. jason says:

    DW has pulled in a whopper, I am not competing with him in any fishing contests.

  218. DW says:

    STAND UP CHUCK!!! WE ALL KNOW YOU CAN DO IT!!!

  219. GF says:

    Cory, look how your boy appeared when he was asleep at the switch and the Muslim Brotherhood Express careened off the rails into our embassies…

  220. rdelbov says:

    Joke poll from MT from PPP as they find as many democrats in this state as in 2008.

    Moreover the indies are more liberal then 2008.

    Plus 8% for the liberterian candidate for US senate.

    Total joke.

  221. jason says:

    The Rs are coming apart at the seams….

    Surreal.

    I guess Kommie Kory must think the jobs report was, as Biden says, a sign of a turn around.

  222. GA Voter says:

    If this crisis does not reset the polls, then we are really hosed. I look for the independents and those with military extended family to rally behind Romney.

    This was an attack not an incident based on a youtube video. The number of hits on the video were really low.

    Obama’s fundraiser was moved indoors. His flyer was printed in English, Spanish and Arabic. Guess he doesn’t want to be seen with his donors.

    Why did Canada close their embassies last week? What did they know. Something was a brewing and Obama failed to attend intel meetings.

    Can hardly wait for the foreign policy debate. Look for Obama to bail on this one due to issues in D.C.

  223. Polaris says:

    Look, it’s not hard people. If the poll is real, then the people posting it should provide evidence (and not much would be needed). If not, then then those posting it should fess up. Honestly it’s somethig I should have said years ago. Well, I’m saying it now.

    -Polaris

  224. Brandon says:

    Damn it people, don’t you know Polaris sets the rules around here.

  225. jason says:

    “I’ll try to look up the Atlas analysis.”

    Thanks, let us know.

    I would too but I am busy trying to think of ways to keep the A-holes from financial disaster.

  226. DW says:

    Here is a place where Paladin/CFP is referenced on another site:

    http://polipundit.com/?p=32545

  227. jason says:

    I think Paladin is quoted in too many sites for there to be any doubt as to their legitimacy.

    But that’s just me.

  228. Polaris says:

    #236 Oh come on, it’s common courtesy. This is a POLLING SITE. If you have a legit poll say so. If it’s a joke poll (and IIRC EPH did a few of those) then it should be labeled as such (and EPH did as I recollect).

    Saying that “I am trying to set the rules” is inaccurate. If we are going to post polls that look valid, then they should be valid. We can’t control what the hacks do outside this site, but we can at least police our own, right?

    -Polaris

  229. Polaris says:

    #240 That is why I said they were *probably* legit, but it *is* possible that all these sites are looking here and assuming that Dave wouldn’t allow polls to be posted here unless they were legit (since this IS supposed to be a polling site).

    -Polaris

  230. DW says:

    and another…

    http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=printpage;topic=153727.0

    …this one, sadly was trying to disparage us.

  231. Real Poll says:

    Hedgehog Report Poll

    Do you believe Polaris is an ass?

    Yes: 74%
    No: 20%

    Completely Real Polling, Inc.

  232. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    206.Bitterlaw says:
    September 12, 2012 at 3:41 pm
    GF – the A-hole Calendar was a good idea until we got too literal.

    210.GF says:
    September 12, 2012 at 3:45 pm
    I concur; the close-ups were particularly unsettling (March’s pictorial tribute to Nat’l. Colorectal Cancer Awareness Month scared me silly).

    -Polaris,
    These are 2 of the posters here. Incredibly funny, but most definitely warped. As to Paladin polls, they are as real as the rest of the polling going on, they are scientifically imprecise.
    Is that a good characterization, A-Holes?

  233. jason says:

    ” but we can at least police our own, right?”

    Actually, this is not OUR site.

    It belongs to Dave Wissing.

    I think he should police it as he sees fit.

    And the busybodies and hall monitors should butt out.

  234. J T says:

    Cory is nervous. Obama is tanking in RAS, but he hangs on to the RV pollsters with high Dem Samples like a life jacket.

    Cory it is over, Obama lost. The DNC was his last hoorah, and Clinton cannot save him anymore.

    With Harper and Romney, 101% will finally have to move from his parents basement.

    How about France, Cory? Get that passport first though

  235. jason says:

    Polaris, I think you should not worry about Paladin and go back to telling us why Romney will win.

  236. Polaris says:

    #244 I remember that initial exchange here and that is why I was sure for the longest time that Paladin/CFP was fake.

    If it IS fake (and after reading that last think I am starting to change my mind again), then this is malfeasence, joke or not. Too many people are trusting that it is real since it is being posted AS real on this site.

    -Polaris

  237. DW says:

    Also, very much real (go back and check the comments from 2010), was the fact that Paladin/CFP used their polls to correctly call the number of house seats the GOP would net gain. Our forecast model called for between 65 and 70 seats all summer long, and in the end it was 66 seats.

  238. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    And to Mr Vito, who did not list me when he listed the locales of some of those on this forum, I have officially thrown out all shoes/sneakers needing socks, I shall trod this earth in Crocs and/or sandals! ALL of your cousins will spend their days making sure my linoleum floor is SPIC N SPAN!!
    Viva la air fresho!

  239. GF says:

    248- PRI finally won in Mexico; he can make a run for the border and see how Mexicans treat illegal immigrants on their own soil.

  240. Polaris says:

    #250 Sorry I mean now that I’ve read that last thread I am starting to change my mind back (to where I think they are probably fake again). I bungled the syntax.

    -Polaris

  241. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Do you believe Polaris is an ass?

    Yes: 74%
    No: 20%

    -6% undecided? who are these hacks!??

  242. Yolanda says:

    You guys are being a little cruel to Polaris right now.

    I, for one, have long not been a huge fan of the “Paladin” postings. I don’t know what I’m supposed to find funny about them. I sure as heck don’t find them informative.

  243. DW says:

    But Polaris, for years, Strategic Vision and Research2000 had polls posted here as though they were real, when in the end, both firms were outed as frauds who made up their polls. PPP(D) is very likely doing the same now. So if Dave W wants to ban fake polls, he should start with PPP(D).

  244. Polaris says:

    #249 Can’t do that Jason. If posters here are passing off fake polls as the genuine article, then that should be stopped. If the poll IS genuine, then we need some sourcing.

    As it is, I will continue to take the middle position of ignoring any “Paladin/CFP” posts.

    -Polaris

  245. Real Poll says:

    A few respondents did not have the mental ability to comprehend the question.

  246. Hunter says:

    So one candidate made a statement and left while the other made a statement and took questions…

    One candidate went to the Lion’s Den of the NAACP and took a stand on principles while the other candidate decided to send the Village Idiot…

    One candidate went to NO right after the hurricane while the other candidate decided to go 3 days later AND after said-previous candidate changed his campaign plans…

    Hmmmmm…

  247. J T says:

    Jason, remember the night before the last Canadian Election? Cory was calling us all fools and morons to believe that Harper would get even close to a majority.

    He was also in fine form in late Summer in 2010, when he and Nate Silver said that the GOP would not win the House, and that Obama would rule without any say from the Republicans.

    But Cory’s best, is when he said the American Public would embrace Obamacare, and that RAS would show it in polling. He even called WES a fool.

    The Guy is a drive by idiot, that studied Math at a 3rd rate Hoser Trade school

  248. Poll Watcher says:

    ” Do you believe Polaris is an ass?

    Yes: 74%
    No: 20%”

    Can we have a recount? Who voted no?

  249. GF says:

    251- Paladin’s only error was in forgetting to subtract the three likely GOP losses. I did that and ended up with 63 on the dot on my final list (I was almost screwed due to the close races in KY-6 and VA-11, both decided by around 600 votes if I recall).

  250. Wesley says:

    Just because I’m a scumbag doesn’t make me a fool!

  251. Michael says:

    PPP has Republican up by 3 in house race

  252. DW says:

    If someone who does not belong to a polling org decides to post a fake poll here, in the name of that pollster, and with numbers that are half-way believable…then that is posting a fake poll.

    I agree, that is wrong.

  253. Polaris says:

    #257 That was the fault of SV and R2K, and ultimately they paid the price. Two wrongs don’t make a right. Just because others clearly make up stuff doesn’t mean we should. Not only that, but being fooled by a fake is one thing. Perpetuating one….that’s different matter altogether.

    -Polaris

  254. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Polaris,

    One clue is that there are always exactly 500 respondents. How does that happen every time?

  255. GF says:

    I will only say that DaveW NEVER posts the results of P/CFP on his blog. Anything more would be a giveaway…

  256. J T says:

    Get Help Cory

  257. Ned Stark says:

    I have to ignore the Paladin polls also, until I can see cross tabs and/or party ID, something more than just top lines. Its nothing personal, I just have to be able to verify some of the data before I include it in my election model.

  258. JayT says:

    Damn My sHift Key is BroKen Again.

  259. jason says:

    Right JT, the Kory has that knee jerk reaction that every Marxist running is going to win and every Marxist idea is going to prevail because, well, that would just be so wonderful.

    But as we can see Harper is the PM with an absolute majority, Obamacare is as unpopular as ever, and percentages still don’t add up to 101.

  260. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    D M H K B K A

    ??

  261. jason says:

    Personally, I can only think of one person who was fooled by Paladin, but I could be wrong.

  262. Bitterlaw says:

    Polaris may have finally found a way to top his 2008 poll analysis. Wow.

  263. Polaris says:

    #268 That’s not good enough. It’s quite possible to always get 500 respondants by legit methodes depending on your screening and what you call a respondant.

    Based on what you’ve said, I will regard all Paladin/CFP polls as FAKE, but THEY SHOULD BE CLEARLY LABLED AS FAKE.

    As DW actually showed, there are too many people that believe them to be real in large part because this is supposed to be a reputable polling site.

    -Polaris

  264. bio mom says:

    There is a tweet from a reporter from Wisconsin saying that the response of patrons at a Wisconsin diner who heard Romney’s statement and press conference was 180 degrees opposite of what was being said by the twitter bloggers about it. Guess Romney scored a hit in Wisconsin!!

  265. jason says:

    Polaris what you can do is just use Paladin as an aid/accessory to your arguments, instead of relying purely on their analysis. That way you will have the bases covered.

  266. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Polaris

    see chain, start yanking

  267. RB says:

    I am at work and curious, how is this Libya story playing out on TV. Are they taking about the story or itself or the politics of the story

  268. Polaris says:

    #276 I’m I am to be blacklisted for pointing out FRAUD then so be it. Making up a fake poll with believable numbers and then posting it as real IS FRAUDULENT.

    We hate it when others do it, we should not sanction it ourselves.

    -Polaris

  269. Wobbles says:

    Russian ships displayed at tribute to American vets…

    Backdropped John Kerry’s speech…

    Surprised?

  270. J T says:

    What is shocking Jason, is that Cory feels he is respected here. LOL. I still smile when I remember the day you and Wes humiliated the fool, andgave him a Statistics class lesson on his pathetic 101% theory

  271. DW says:

    In fairness to Polaris, he has been gone for most of the last four years, and Paladin/CFP has been around for just over two years now.

  272. Polaris says:

    #279 No can do. Now that I have been essentially told CFP/Paladin is a FAKE POLL, I will not only ignore it but call it what it is:

    FRAUD.

    Fraud is fraud regardless of party.

    -Polaris

  273. Robbie says:

    Ed Henry tweets that a Fox News poll will be released at 6 PM.

  274. J T says:

    Paladin is more credible these days, that is for sure

  275. J T says:

    Who cares Robbie. We know it will be bad. It is Faux news after all.

    Get your gloomer hat on Union Troll

  276. Polaris says:

    #285 So DW, is Paladin/CFP genuine or not? There seem to be too many people out there that think it is, and if it’s not that’s not good. This goes beyond practical joking.

    -Polaris

  277. hugh says:

    Bio Mom. I love you, but how is it a good thing that the few Romney spoke with had a favorable impression and the tweets and reporters all report something else? That is our problem. No one watches the candidates they listen to and watch the sound bites mainly from the msm. We are getting killed on that front. That is what morons like ingram dont get, what we cant explain in costly 30 second ads gets filtered through a hostile biased and coordinated press corp. its no wonder we cant get our message out the way we want to.

  278. Bitterlaw says:

    This is a defining moment for Polaris. Here are his options:

    1. Acknowledge the error (a little self-deprecating humor would help).

    2. Post indignant rants about the integrity of polling and how that math is a sacred rite of all civilized societies.

    3. Leave . . .return to say he is leaving . . . leave . . . return to explain why he had to leave . . . leave . . . return . . .

  279. hugh says:

    polaris. It is not. its humorous how their polls get picked up and used. What is sad is they are more accurate than most of the so called real polling outfits.

  280. J T says:

    No worries Polaris. You are a welcome poster here. What would be your breakdown on gallup today, if they used a LV screen with a D+3 sample.

    Cory, listen up. You need the help

  281. GF says:

    285- I was going to point that out. Polaris, take notice of when P/CFP popped up on HHR during your absence. You’ll see it is no fraud but rather something quite different. Everyone here knows about it; you are forgiven in light of your lengthy absence.

  282. Marv says:

    #287 Robbie,

    If those b*stards at the Fox News poll oversampled Dems again, I swear, I will never watch those lefties again.

  283. Annie says:

    Just saw a bit of Wolf Blitzer’s show on CNN. Comments dealt with the question of whether or not “the Arab Spring” was worth it. Then the commentators turn around and state that although Romney said “the Arab Spring might turn into an Arab Winter” (the same thing they were just discussing) – that “Romney might have done himself a lot of harm today”!! These people on the MSM just don’t make any sense! Do they even hear themselves? They certainly are out of touch with the thinking of most Americans, and have demonstrated that they will say anything to prop-up Obama and be negative toward Romney.

    Rush Limbaugh played an open mic moment between two “journalists” just before Romney’s press meeting this morning – caught planning how they would twist the story-line to question the value of Romney’s response and to paint it as disrespectful to Obama’s role as president. Obviously, reporters want to craft the story to suit their agenda, rather than simply report the news.

  284. J T says:

    293. Exactly Hugh. It is not a real poll, but DW does it , because he wanted to show how things looked using a LV screen.

    He was quite accurate on the WI recall, much better than PPP or Faux News

  285. Polaris says:

    #292 No, how about option four: Ask for a little integrity. I know that’s a novel concept. Posting a fake poll and psssing it off as real is vile. We correctly despise others that do it and lampaste them. We should not do it ourselves.

    That isn’t a hard concept I hope.

    -Polaris

  286. RottiLargo says:

    GF,

    If you’re around, is a Persian 98/29 really better than a Turk 98/22. I own 2 of the latter and am deciding if one should be used to purchase one of the former (or possibly a vz 24).

    Ever since I got my C and R collectors license, things have gotten a bit out of hand.

  287. Paladin says:

    JT thinks we’re real too? Oh my….

  288. J T says:

    Marv, Faux news will pile on. Just like the RINO’s on Fox All stars.

    Faux news totally gloomed Walker too, and had Prosser losing.

  289. DW says:

    Did I ever share the story about when I was in college, the dorm rooms had a max capacity of six per room, but usually only about four were assigned. So this one year I was in a room that had only three, and across the hall there was a room that had five. Being good at math, I could foresee what was going to happen. So the the other two roommates and I conspired to create a fake roommate. Put his name on the door, circulated his name on college paperwork, took phone messages for him. Asked people if they have seen him around. By half way through the term, most in the dorm believed he existed. Even got his name called out at a basketball game half-time contest.

    We never had a fourth person added to our room.

  290. Brandon says:

    Vile? Oh come on.

  291. J T says:

    301. As I said Troll, not a real poll. Duh

  292. bio mom says:

    hugh, these were diners in Wisconsin. Romney was not there. They responded to hearing what he said live while they watched it.

  293. Polaris says:

    OK Hugh and DW, if it’s not fraud what is it? If you are using an LV screen on posted polls, I’m with you 100%. That’s the sort of analysis we should be doing.

    However, IMHO it’s gone too far. There are people out that that DO think this is a legit poll, and that’s not right. If we are reworking established numbers, then that should be clearly stated. Otherwise we are doing what we accuse the MSM of doing.

    -Polaris

  294. Paladin says:

    “It is not a real poll, but DW does it , because he wanted to show how things looked using a LV screen.”

    How is DW applying an LV screen if there is no poll?

  295. Marv says:

    I think that Fox probably polled, on Sunday and Monday, or Saturday and Sunday. They likely have a D+5 sample again, or thereabouts. I can already tell I’m not going to like their poll. I can already tell that I’m not going to appreciate the Fox All-Stars discussing it without questioning the party ID.

    Am I wrong to jump to those conclusions?

    Bret Baier, I hope you had a discussion with the polling unit about the party ID issue.

  296. J T says:

    Jason, do I remember Robbie dooming Scott Walker also?

  297. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    303.DW says:
    September 12, 2012 at 4:28 pm
    Did I ever share the story about when I was in college, the dorm rooms had a max capacity of six per room, but usually only about four were assigned. So this one year I was in a room that had only three, and across the hall there was a room that had five. Being good at math, I could foresee what was going to happen. So the the other two roommates and I conspired to create a fake roommate. Put his name on the door, circulated his name on college paperwork, took phone messages for him. Asked people if they have seen him around. By half way through the term, most in the dorm believed he existed. Even got his name called out at a basketball game half-time contest.

    We never had a fourth person added to our room.

    -I think that 4th roommates name was Paul Ares, wasn’t it?

  298. Bitterlaw says:

    We correctly despise others that do it and lampaste them. We should not do it ourselves.

    That isn’t a hard concept I hope.

    -Polaris

    I knew Polaris would take option 2.

  299. Marv says:

    #302 J T,

    I remember that you and I were the main ones here who were virtually certain about both Prosser, then Walker.

  300. J T says:

    Marv, Robbie is drooling on the anticipation of a heavy Dem sample Fox Poll.

    He has his tin foil hat already on

  301. DW says:

    Actually Paladin/CFP does not use a Likely Voter screen, it is a Certain To Vote sample that was developed by MD and his team.

  302. jason says:

    It’s going to be tough to adhere to the new “LABEL AS FAKE” rules.

    Every time I mention Robbie’s name I have to say “FAKE” right after it?

  303. J T says:

    Marv, I was high on Walker, but Fox News had me down on Prosser. that is why Faux News is worthless these days. A bunch of RINO talking heads.

    Marv, you were high on Prosser, you were the man

  304. Bitterlaw says:

    I thought the fake roommate was Captain Tuttle.*

    *How is that for watching too much tv as a child?

  305. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    I picked Prosser and Walker on the days that the recalls were announced.
    Doesn’t anyone els remember? It’s seared into my memory!

  306. DW says:

    I refuse to reveal the name of the fourth roommate–some people out there still believe

  307. Robbie says:

    310.Jason, do I remember Robbie dooming Scott Walker also?

    Comment by J T — September 12, 2012 @ 4:31 pm

    Nope. Never posted one comment about that race. I was in training switching aircraft when that race was in full steam. But nice try.

  308. J T says:

    No Jason. No need to label Robbie. He is Public Troll #1

  309. Polaris says:

    #312 So it’s wrong for the MSM to post poll fakery and PPP to (likely) just make it up, but we are allowed to do it? Really? I hate being the scold, but wrong is wrong people, and posting fake polls as they they were real is just as wrong if we do it as if someone else does.

    -Polaris

  310. J T says:

    321. You mean in the Union Hall?

  311. DW says:

    PPP(D)

    MONTANA

    Romney 50
    Obama 45

    Disclaimer:
    THIS IS A FAKED POLL!!

  312. GF says:

    Jul, depends on what you want it for. Persians are generally very well made and will lay ordnance on target on demand. If you can lay your hands on one in pristine condition, I’d say go for it.

  313. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    “…that was developed by MD and his team.”

    Uh oh, bringing in the BIG money behind the machine, that is never a good outcome for anyone.
    I am outta here for a while.

  314. Pool Aires says:

    Now come over here you bad boys so daddy can punish you.

    -Pool Aires

  315. Bitterlaw says:

    DW – Could Paladin conduct a poll of HHR? I bet more than 75% believe that Polaris is a petulant, self-important, humorless jerk who sells dreams to voters who hate Obama every 4 years but I want the survey to be legitimate.

  316. J T says:

    308. Take your meds troll

  317. Annie says:

    We need to have a means to flood the info world stating the bias and propaganda machine of the MSM – it needs to be discredited on a huge level. To some extent, people who are informed, really informed, already see the MSM bias and take what they say accordingly. However, there must be a way to make the general population aware of what is going on, so that everyone will view the MSM with open eyes. Part of this will come through word of mouth, co-workers speaking to each other, etc. But there must be a way to break-through their monopoly of media. Love him or hate him, Glenn Beck was communicating the realities of corruption within the media and the ways the Obama administration was interwoven with a global agenda. Of course, he “disappeared” and his message is now hard to find for most people. Beck really got senior citizens inspired, too. Maybe people are afraid to confront the power structure, after all – Breitbart is dead (yes, yes…natural causes and all that).

    The MSM had decided to pan Romney’s commentary this morning before the candidate ever opened his mouth. Personally, I totally agreed with Romney, and thought he showed strength and character – just what Obama lacks.

  318. DW says:

    I do agree with others who value what Polaris has to contribute here. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and I welcome his contribution.

  319. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    But first, who the h*ll is Captain Tuttle??

  320. DW says:

    329 – Our three polling teams are maxed out right now trying to keep up with our schedule. Maybe after the election we could do some other polling.

  321. Polaris says:

    #329 I call you out for backing a FAKE poll and passing it off as genuine and you say “I am a humorless jerk”.

    Here’s a clue tid-bit: Most people don’t like fraud. Posting fake polls as real IS fraud.

    -Polaris

  322. jason says:

    Internet rumors say Fox will show Romney ahead by 2.

  323. Marv says:

    DW,

    “The Fourth Roomate”……..that’s a great title for a Vince Flynn or Brad Thor novel. Robert Ludlum or Frederich Forsyth would be good candidates too.

    I have a suggestion, let’s have our publishing unit explore that possiblity.

  324. J T says:

    Jason, I find that hard to believe. Fox would never be that responsible

  325. jason says:

    Polaris, you have an image as an insufferable ass.

    This is not helping.

  326. Marv says:

    #336 jason,

    If that’s true, then I apologize in advance. Otherwise I remain quite skeptical of the Fox Poll. There’s a dang fifth column over at Fox and they better weed them out of there.

  327. jason says:

    JT, I have no idea what the Fox poll will show. I am just trying to start an irresponsible and fake rumor that will be picked up and disseminated throughout the Internet.

  328. Scott says:

    DW
    In the PPP/Jensen Poll of the Senate race in Montana,in the 2006 CNN Exit Polling in the Tester-Burns Race,Tester carried Indies by 24 pts.(59/35). In the PPP/Jensen Poll,Indies split as follows:
    Tester- 41%
    Rehberg- 33%
    Cox(Lib.)- 18%

    Tester beat Burns by 1% and according to PPP/Jensen,Tester leads this year by 2 pts. although he is doing 18% worse with Indies! Absurd.

    PPP/Jensen uses the same Party ID split as 2008,basically 1/3 to each Party.Do any of our polling experts see that this year?

  329. lisab says:

    i think i remember correctly paladin had blog site, but they had to take it down after kossians raided it

    do i remember that correctly?

  330. Annie says:

    Back in 1980, I remember that Jimmy Carter was always talked up on the network shows, too. And, Reagan was always talked down…as the “cowboy” and “stupid actor.” However, we the people were living through really hard times similar to today, and among ourselves, we always talked about what a loser Carter was, and that we wanted to live in “Reagan Country” and have hope for the future.

  331. RottiLargo says:

    GF,

    Suppose I’ll have to spring for one of the Samco “New” condition ones then.

    Gahhhh you’re killin me!

    Really the only reason I want a pre WWII long mauser is because 1.) They look cool 2.) They’re czech made. 3.) Did I mention they look cool?

  332. DW says:

    342 – thanks for doing that work…my suspicions that this PPP(D) MT was FAKED seems to be confirmed.

  333. J T says:

    Marv, Fox will use a D+8 Sample, with Obama up at least 7.

    They have to give their RINO talking heads something to gloom about

  334. Scott says:

    Pitch
    Is it true that Gallup is now using a D+8 model in Party ID? When did Gallup switch from a D+3 model?

  335. GF says:

    Jul, I have an 1890 Spandau issue that I bought off a Bedouin in the Saudi desert; his grandfather picked it up off a dead Turk on the road to Damascus in 1918. You are welcome to it but I don’t know if I would try modern ammo on a chamber that old.

  336. Viceroy Argus says:

    I’m with Polaris. It is fraud.

  337. lisab says:

    my husband has a school friend who has a favorite gun which he calls a large bore mauser, i think that is what he said.

    a.) who has a favorite gun?
    b.) who would buy a mauser?

  338. Sir Albert says:

    DW,
    Whatever you say now or ever. I’m with you. Phoenix, that goes for you, too. So many times I don’t have to comment because you guys always say what I’m thinking. Great work!

  339. jason says:

    Was just polled for President, Senate and Congress.

    I said I was a Republican voting for all the Democrats.

    I know, Polaris will now think I am a terrible person.

  340. DW says:

    Looks like a case of cream soda is needed here. Everybody take one…

  341. RottiLargo says:

    As some of you may or may not know, I’m compulsive about remaining on good terms with my ex gfs.

    Direct quotes from the last 24 hours:

    “Well, guess I’m going to have to vote for Romney” (Libertarian/Objectivist/Ron Paul supporting ex)

    “Idk why but our ambassador to Libya being murdered is really bothering me” (Fmr. Fiancee/”Prisoner 45098″ as Bitter calls her)

    Going to check with the current gf as soon as she gets back in town (Sunday). She’s an undecided, registered Dem, who has never voted.

  342. DW says:

    353 – why do that? If I was polled, I would say I am a Democrat voting for all the republicans so I could mess up their sample and show better results for the GOP

  343. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    EGG CREAMS dang it! Just once try an egg cream!

  344. Bitterlaw says:

    Polaris – I have never promoted CFP/Paladin. I could not care less about it. I’m not involved in it in any way. This is a blog. If you don’t like it, leave. You have done it before.

  345. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Only FRAUDSTERS drink Cream Sodas!

  346. Marv says:

    #347 J T,

    Bret Baier and Stephen Hayes, in particular, lately have been pushing back hard on the spate of Dem heavy polls. Carl Cameron mentioned that too, and was quick to point out that the ABC/WAPO showed it at 49-48 Obama in the LV sample. It was discussed the context of O’s diminishing convention bounce.

    If the Fox poll shows Obama up, I bet that Baier will mention that the poll was taken at the height of the convention bounce and that later polls, ie RAS today, show that the bounce has ebbed. It would be a ballsy move, let’s see if he does it……if the Fox poll shows Obama up by any margin.

  347. RottiLargo says:

    GF,

    Were it a czech or one from “my people” (I’m very very German), I’d be all over it. I’ll pass for now, but thanks for the offer.

    LisaB,

    He probably has an 11mm mauser. Cool, but impractical.

    80+ year old mauser actions are so well built that they are frequently the basis for modern super magnum cartidge African safari rifles. The Germans know how to design their war tools.

  348. lisab says:

    Top U.S. military officer calls pastor over film

    (Reuters) – General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with Pastor Terry Jones by phone on Wednesday and asked him to withdraw his support for a film whose portrayal of the Prophet Mohammad has sparked violent protests – including one that ended with the death of America’s envoy to Libya. “In the brief call, Gen. Dempsey expressed his concerns over the nature of the film, the tensions it will inflame and the violence it will cause,” Dempsey’s spokesman, Colonel Dave Lapan, told Reuters. “He asked Mr. Jones to consider withdrawing his support for the film.”

  349. GF says:

    24601, you should hook-up with 45098 again if the current CommieBabe doesn’t pan/put out.

    In true A-Hole fashion, I have been buying cream sodas from the ship’s store in the last few days. Damn, if they aren’t tasty.

  350. Ned Stark says:

    Scott,

    Last night on Fox, Rove said that Gallup was using a D+8 sample, he also said that Ras was using something like an R+1.3 or something like that.

  351. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Imagine a Martian coming upon Mr Wissing’s blog, reading everything, trying to figure things out, and then all of a sudden this line: “Jul, I have an 1890 Spandau issue that I bought off a Bedouin in the Saudi desert; his grandfather picked it up off a dead Turk on the road to Damascus in 1918. You are welcome to it but I don’t know if I would try modern ammo on a chamber that old.”

    Priceless, I say, to you beautiful whackjobs, PRICELESS!! Tears to my eyes!

  352. Marv says:

    #351 lisab,

    My favorites are the M1 Garand and my single shot 410 gauge Mossberg shotgun. What are your favorites?

  353. J T says:

    362. Lisa, the Pentagon now wants to get rid of Free Speech

  354. Bitterlaw says:

    Jul – I’m starting to see a pattern. Maybe they wouldn’t be ex-girlfriends if you didn’t constantly ask, “Who are you voting for?” Just a suggestion.

  355. Mr.Vito says:

    “And to Mr Vito, who did not list me when he listed the locales of some of those on this forum, I have officially thrown out all shoes/sneakers needing socks…”

    Well, “NYCMIKE”… I figured that Scooter is not a moron.

  356. J T says:

    The MSM has decided to attack the Pastor, to protect Obama’s awful Mideast Policy.

  357. lisab says:

    “He probably has an 11mm mauser”

    no idea.

    he has a bunch of guns though.

    farmers have guns.

  358. RottiLargo says:

    NYCMike,

    Every time I’m in your fair city, I make an effort to have a chocolate egg cream. Damn good stuff, sir.

    MD and Bitter (and Brandon) all have easy access to nearly-as-good egg creams at the Pop Shop in Collingswood NJ.

    They need to take their kids/wives/girlfriends there. Cute little 50’s style soda shop with really solid food. Family fun as well as a great date place.

  359. Mr.Vito says:

    I just showed up and see that Paladin is taking some more flak.

    How come no one questions WASSUP?

    I think it’s because they are legit.

  360. DW says:

    358 – Correct, this is totally the organization run by MD, Marv and myself. In 2010, Eph (also known as Eph Rove) left HHR, but he had started CFP (Christian Family Polling). When he left, he passed this fledgling company to Marv and MD. I had just undertaken to create Paladin polling in the wake of the demise of Strategic Vision and Research2000. After a brief deliberation, we decided to merge and became Paladin/CFP.

  361. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Mr Vito,

    My locale includes Broadway, I NEED to see my name in bright lights, please please me, as they say on Abbey Road in London…..GFY Bitter!

  362. J T says:

    Well said Marv, no matter what the poll shows though, the Fox News All stars will still shred Romney.

    Robbie is slobbering in anticipation. GO RINO’S!!!!!

  363. J T says:

    GF, is Dempsey another Obama hack, like Mullen?

  364. Scott says:

    A Reuters/Ipsos Poll has just been posted by Real Clear Politics.It is a Likely Voter D+5 in Party ID and is O48-R45

  365. RottiLargo says:

    Bitter,

    One I broke up with, the other is for the best.

    Current gf doesn’t “get it” but gives me big pretty doe eyes when I rant and seems to enjoy it.

  366. Ned Stark says:

    Ok below is the D/R/I for Idaho and Montana, can someone with some knowledge of these states explain why there is such a difference in party ID between two states that seem similar in demographics and region.

    Idaho D R I
    2004 22 50 27 99
    2008 24 48 28 100
    Avg 23 49 27.5 99.5

    Montana D R I
    2004 32 39 29 100
    2008 33 33 34 100
    Avg 32.5 36 31.5 100

  367. Mr.Vito says:

    WASSUP (Wardrobe, Assorted Socks, Suspenders, and Undergarment Polling)

    Missouri

    Romney: 54%
    Obama: 42%

    WASSUP — “run by knitwits… you reap what you sew…”

  368. Scott says:

    #364-Stark
    Thanks.

  369. Marv says:

    #362 lisab,

    General Dempsey has been irritating me lately. He also weighed in on the former military and intelligence officials who have formed a PAC critical of Obama’s intell leaks. If Dempsey was asked by Panetta to call Jones, he should have respectively declined to do so.

    I suspect that if Gov Romney becomes President that Dempsey will retire, at least, I hope so. Romney should them deep select the next Joint Chiefs Chairman. That’s the advice I would give.

  370. GF says:

    11mm is quite impressive, those Krauts were always trying to one (or ten!) up the rest of the world in calibres. I give you Gustav and Dora!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schwerer_Gustav

  371. Polaris says:

    Ok everyone,

    I have just looked at the internals of the current Gallup track. The problem is while Gallup does report their crosstabs they do so for a period of Aug 20 to Sep 9 which means the data does not quite match with the tracking poll. Nevertheless I will do my best.

    According to gallup’s data (see Caveat above) the reported DRI is 33D/34R/30I, but that is clearly nonsense (or outdated). You can not get the thop line number (50-43 Obama) with the cross tabs as reported with an R+1 sample. I will determine what the true DRI is in a future post (but D+8 looks about right).

    However, we DO get good info on the LV screen. According to the “certain to vote” criteria (the LV screen) 88% of GOP respondants were “sure to vote” while only 83% of Dem respondants said the same. This drops to 72% for Indies.

    Once we apply the LV screen to the reported DRI in the tabs, I get a DRI of:

    35D/38R/27I or R+3 which would translate (again from the same data and crosstabs) to a topline of:

    46 Obama/49 Romney (with rounding)

    Basically when Gallup warned we’d see a huge shift when going to LVs, they weren’t kidding. Makes you wonder why they aren’t….no it doesn’t.

    -Polaris

  372. hugh says:

    Polaris

    OK Hugh and DW, if it’s not fraud what is it? If you are using an LV screen on posted polls, I’m with you 100%. That’s the sort of analysis we should be doing.

    I for one am very happy you are back. However, this is not about fraud it is about a good sense of humor and having a few laughs. nd sadly they have an excellent track record of educated guessing over the so called expert polling outfits.

  373. jenny says:

    According to National Review Online, Romney will lose Ohio! How can this be true if Rove says Romney will win?

  374. J T says:

    Montana has a lot of Californians, Ned

  375. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    RottiLargo/Jul/MusicMan,

    Thank you sir!

    Oh, and if anyone wants to see a good show, I just saw Once, The Musical. Great show, the wife loved it, if I play the air guitar right, it is almost like forepl……oops sorry about that, TMI!
    Cheers!

  376. jason says:

    ” a.) who has a favorite gun?
    b.) who would buy a mauser?”

    I do. A Browning HP 9mm.

    As far as Mauser’s, many are collectibles especially machine pistols. Some were adapted to full auto like the C-96 Model 712.

  377. DW says:

    378 – the range of that poll, if its real, is Sept 7 to 10. The sweet spot after the Dem convention.

  378. J T says:

    Jenny, Robert Costa Wrote the NRO article. The same fool who said for months that Obamacare would never pass

  379. Marv says:

    DW,

    I really appreciate the fact that you and MD have taken over the polling unit. It allows me to concentrate on our flight department and special operations units.

  380. J T says:

    378. Scott, go D+3 and ipsos is tied

  381. GF says:

    380- My understanding is that Montana had a larger union population for years (timber and mining), plus a decent Native population in relation to the rest of the state and a sizeable university campus (Missoula). Lots of Pinkos packed into a small voting population of less than half a million.

    377- Don’t know much about Dempsey, though few have uttered his name in the ranks. People talked about Mullen all the time.

  382. J T says:

    391. Good catch Jason

  383. Greymarch says:

    Where is today’s Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll? Should have hit the net by now. It hit the net around 4pm east-coast time yesterday.

  384. Marv says:

    GF,

    Prediction…….General Dempsey will retire early and his replacement will be nominated by President Romney. What say you?

  385. DW says:

    393 – no problem…we have a great executive team.

  386. jason says:

    356. Oh, fiddlesticks, I forgot to add “THIS IS FALSE” after I said that.

    No, actually, I was truthful to the pollster.

  387. Polaris says:

    Ok, I can confirm that the current Gallup is D+7 to D+8. It’s particularly easy to eyeball since the GOP number is Obama6/Romney 92 and the Dem number is Obama 91/Romney 6 and the Indies are flucuating around a tie.

    This is about a D+7 or so poll.

    -Polaris

  388. J T says:

    Pentagon has to be in a panic. They backed Obama’s policies in the MidEast.

    Romney will be looking to push Mullen out

  389. Scott says:

    #385- Polaris
    Excellent analysis.
    The big Obama days in Gallup start burning-off with Friday’s posting.So from Friday until next Thursday we shall see what occurs with their polling.

  390. GF says:

    Marv, I would nominate my new commander, but he would need his 4th star first and would be promoted over others in waiting a la Nimitz in ’41.

  391. lisab says:

    Marv,

    Cheytac .408 cal
    m-110 semi auto

  392. Polaris says:

    #386 Look Hugh, A good sense of humor is one thing, but when outside readers genuinely believe the polls are real (and actually have a better track record than many real polls which is appalling but I admit funny), then there is a problem.

    I don’t take issue with WASSUP because it’s clearly by the way it’s posted a fake.

    That’s all I’m saying.

    -Polaris

  393. GeauxLSU says:

    I can understand the Paladin/Polaris dust up. Years ago when Polaris was here, posting fake polls and posting under multiple names were strictly forbidden and those who violated the rule were banned. The discussions were more issues based and respectful of differing opinions. That was when Dave had more time to monitor. It has become more of an “anything goes” type of blog. Not making judgements on it being better/worse. Just saying.

  394. Scott says:

    #401-Polaris
    You are the best. So Gallup sees 2012 Party ID the same as 2008 with Obama winning by 7% again. Why don’t they just phone it in?!

  395. Marv says:

    #404 GF,

    LOL……with respect, of course. I absolutely knew that you were going to say that, at least that’s what I was looking for. I agree with you 100%!

  396. jason says:

    We pay this guy’s salary…

    ” National Public Radio’s White House correspondent has generated controversy after he wrote a blog explaining why he did not stand for the Pledge of Allegiance or the National Anthem at a recent Mitt Romney campaign event.”

    “This is always an uncomfortable moment for me,” Shapiro wrote, referring to an announcement asking people to stand for the pledge and the Star Spangled Banner. “

  397. Marv says:

    #405 lisab,

    Now, you have be wondering. When did you ever learn out those weapons? BTW, my next favorite is the 1903 Springfield 30 caliber rifle. I want one of those.

  398. Polaris says:

    #408 Actually compared to 2008, Gallup sees Romney doing a full 6-7 points better. His final 2008 poll of RVs (to compare apples to apples) was D+13!!! Gallup was horrid in 2008 and if they keep this up, 2012 isn’t looking much better.

    IMHO they (Gallup) gets one chance to fix it when they go to their traditional LV model….and from the verbage on their analysis (warning of a big shift when LVs are used), they might just try to do just that.

    -Polaris

  399. Marv says:

    #385 Polaris,

    Thanks for the analysis. I appreciate it. Why on earth the heavy D sample in Gallup? They should know better by now.

  400. RottiLargo says:

    NYCMike,

    Going to an Edgar Allen Poe festival with the ladyfriend next month, so I’ll get my dose of theater. Thanks for the heads up though!

    LisaB,

    1.) Thanks for your input yesterday on the suggested reading list issue. I just needed to make sure my basic ideology wasn’t getting in the way of doing the morally correct thing. You’re actually a pretty good measure of that and more of the HHR community should realize that.

    2.) I love that you have favorite guns.

  401. Michael says:

    PPP
    Washington Governor
    Inslee 48
    McKenna 42

  402. Polaris says:

    #413: Holden to Gallup: “We don’t like your polling model”

    Gallup: “It is what it is. You can believe what you want, but you don’t get to make up your own facts.”

    Holden: “Of course we do.” Pulls out supeona (sp?). “Oh by the way, nice polling company….SHAME if something were to happen to it.”

    Gallup: *ulp* “We’ll fix it honest.”

    -Polaris

  403. Michael says:

    Washington President

    Obama 53
    Romney 42

  404. Michael says:

    New thread

  405. Robbie says:

    Robbie is slobbering in anticipation. GO RINO’S!!!!!

    Comment by J T — September 12, 2012 @ 4:56 pm

    You need to spend some time with a mental health expert.