Marist: Obama Leads in FL, OH an VA

NBC News and Marist College have come out with new polls for the states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia and it shows Barack Obama leading in all three states by at least 5%.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 43%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%

Here are the results for the US Senate races.

Bill Nelson (D-inc) 51%
Connie Mack (R) 37%

Sherrod Brown (D-inc) 49%
Josh Mandel (R) 42%

George Allen (R) 46%
Tim Kaine (D) 46%

These polls were done September 9-11 among likely voters in each state.

Posted by Dave at 8:54 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (478)

478 Responses to “Marist: Obama Leads in FL, OH an VA”

  1. SusyQue says:

    Be confident…Romney will win this election!

  2. Michael D. says:

    Marist is so pathetic.

  3. jason says:

    Wow, third and 22 lets just run up the middle.

  4. rdelbov's flusher says:

    Trashy trashy trashy. flush them. trash polls….!!!

  5. BayernFan says:

    Blitzer still attacking romney

  6. david d says:

    Polls don’t look good for the good guys …but Im thinking there is a silent majority that will fill up the voting booths in November much like they filled up the Chick-fil-A stores…When do the debates start? That should be interestinga and methinks Romney will wipe up Obama and Ryan for sure will destroy Biden.

  7. Michael D. says:

    No cares about what Blitzer says about anything. No one even watches CNN anymore.

  8. RB says:

    This is why CNNs ratings are awful. While the middle east is burning, lets talk about Romney’s statement 2 days ago. Unleash Sanunu.

  9. jenny-Romney=Dewey says:

    yawn, more blue polls!

  10. jason says:

    I very much doubt Allen is doing better than Romney in VA. That being said they will both win.

  11. jenny-Romney=Dewey says:

    another thing, if the events of this week can’t get conservatives excited about romney nothing will1!

  12. Sir Albert says:


  13. Robbie says:

    Dick Morris makes a reasonable case why Romney still has a good chance.

    I would say it’s always dangerous to assume your opponents voters won’t show up, but I definitely agree the 2008 model won’t happen in 2012.

  14. Scooter Boy says:

    I agree with MD. Get our people out of the Mid-east. I can’t believe we continue to send billions in aid to these countries who only want to kill us. It wouldn’t suprise me if our embassy in Cairo gets overrun tomorrow, they are reportedly expecting over 1 million people in the streets. We better get our people out of there.

  15. jason says:

    Hey Bunu, one down two to go…

    “One of the Republican appointees to the Electoral College has resigned abruptly from her post after publicly questioning whether she would support the GOP’s presidential ticket when casting official votes after the November election.

    Melinda Wadsley of Ames, Iowa, tells The Associated Press that she could not in good conscience vote for party nominee Mitt Romney.

    Wadsley was among three electors who had told the AP for a story published Thursday that they were exploring alternatives should Romney win their states. Wadsley had backed candidate Ron Paul”

  16. Ray says:

    Not thrilled with state polls today but let’s see where we are next week.

    With Gallup, looks like Obama has built himself a lead with RVs post-DNC. O had a good night last night (51-45-ish) but a big night rolls off tonight so we could shave 1-3 pts off the margin depending on what comes on (Tomorrow’s Gallup if R Poor night: 49-45, Good night: 48-45, Great night: 47-45). Net approval consistently solid post-DNC.

    While Rasmussen’s topline was good news today, potentially great news with Obama’s approval ratings. To go to 49-51 on 3 day tracking, I have last night’s approval at 45-55 give or take a point on each side. Could be an outlier but represents his worst night in 3 weeks. Swing state #s should stay 47-45 tomorrow; I have O needing a 49+ night and Romney a 50+ night to move their #.

  17. SusyQue says:

    They did to our ambassador what they did to Gaddafi!

    A news report made by the Libyan Free Press is also reporting that Ambassador Stevens was sodomized before he was killed:…libya-reporte/

  18. jason says:

    The idea that the MSM did overplay their hand is getting out there….

  19. Jeff G. says:

    Here’s some data for comparison. The numbers use CNN exits polls from 2004 and 2008 to compare with the D/R/I of the Marist polls:

    Florida: 2004: 37/41/23 R+4; 2008: 37/34/29 D+3; Marist: 35/33/30 D+2

    Ohio: 2004: 36/40/24 R+4; 2008: 39/31/30 D+8; Marist 38/28/32 D+10

    Virginia: 2004: 35/39/26 R+4; 2008: 39/33/28 D+6; Marist 31/26/43 D+5

    In summary, the Marist polls released tonight all show LV models in line with 2008 results. Take that for what it’s worth.

  20. lisab says:

    carter corrects obama

    Former President Jimmy Carter spoke to students at Drake University in Des Moines today and was asked if he agreed with what Obama said about Egypt:

    Carter: “Egypt is an ally of the US, we know Egypt well.”

    President Obama had earlier stated during an interview, “You know, I don’t think that we would consider them an ally, but we do not consider them an enemy.”

  21. jason says:

    Wow the Bears got suckered big time.

  22. Dylan says:

    So every set of polls from the swing states I have seen show Obama with slight to significant leads. And I am supposed to “feel” this is somehow different from 2008 and that a “secret silent majority” will save us from another Obama term?…..

    Ok, I am not going to eeyore but I will say that it does in fact appear we have passed the tipping point as a functional nation. For christ’s sake, our president just appeared on ” pimp with a limp”. On 9/11 for heavens sake.

  23. Brandon says:

    Sweet play.

  24. lisab says:

    “Melinda Wadsley of Ames, Iowa, tells The Associated Press that she could not in good conscience vote for party nominee Mitt Romney.”

    she found out she was looking at prison time

  25. Robbie says:

    In the last thread, I talked about how Kerry shook things up in early September 2004 and found his footing heading into the first debate.

    Here’s the story. The point is there’s plenty of time and if Romney decides a shake up of some sort is needed, there’s plenty of time for it to work.

    At this time in 2004, Kerry trailed by 6 or so and nearly won. Romney’s just down 3 or so.

  26. Michael 1 says:

    As someone who distinctly remembers the Doom ‘n’ Gloomers back in the fall of 1980 saying RR was going to get CREAMED by Carter, may I suggest that everyone do his/her work on getting 10 friends to turn out at their respective polls – – – – – – and leave the rest to God. My sense is that the Lib Media is deeply afraid that BHO is going to RUIN them for a generation (like Reagan did) and they will move heaven and hell (mostly hell, however) to get Obama re-elected. Work, Pray, Vote- 1,2,3:WE WIN!

  27. lisab says:

    “Ok, I am not going to eeyore but I will say that it does in fact appear we have passed the tipping point as a functional nation.”

    slight difference this time

    4 years ago people had jobs, money, and were excited to vote for obama

    it may be anecdotal, but i do not get the feeling people are itching to vote for obama

    i do know people who will crawl through broken glass to vote against him

  28. lisab says:

    if obama loses, the dem party will shatter

    any riots will be in the big cities like LA, NY, Chicago

    will blue states fire on black rioters?

    will black voters show up in 2016 if obama loses?

    Jewish people are dropping away from obama as we speak, i cannot see them supporting obama in the percentages dems normally get

  29. Wobbles says:

    It is over, Mccain gave a pass to Obama on Hannity. Stockholm Syndrome.

  30. jason says:

    There is a huge difference between 2008 and 2012.

    In 2008 Obama was playing offense.

    Now he is playing defense, we all know he won’t do as well as in 2008 and he is trying to run out the clock. Even the “favorable” polls are not so comforting, the ARG and Ras polls today give him a one point lead in Ohio, 2 in Colorado, 2 in FL (losing by 3 in one FL poll) down 19 in MO even in one poll. Yeah, the Marist polls are good for him, but why only believe them?

    I see nothing that reminds me of 2008.

  31. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Jay Cutler(notes) 4 9 37 44.4 4.1 3 30 0 1 16.7

    Where is addisonst, these are some ELI(te) stats thru 1-1/2 qtrs!!

  32. lisab says:

    Papers run porn king’s ad, reject anti-Obama filmmaker

    Flynt offers $1 million for Romney dirt via Washington Post, USA Today

    USA Today and the Washington Post turned down full-page ads for Joel Gilbert’s documentary exposing Barack Obama’s past, but they have published pornographer Larry Flynt’s full-page offer of $1 million to dig up dirt on Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

    Flint, the publisher of Hustler magazine, is offering up to $1 million for verifiable information about Romney’s unreleased tax returns or details of his offshore assets, bank accounts and business partnerships.

    Gilbert’s documentary, “Dreams from My Real Father: A Story of Reds and Deception,” presents evidence Obama’s biological father is his teen mentor, the Communist Party activist Frank Marshall Davis, not Barack Hussein Obama, the student from Kenya.

  33. lisab says:

    for some reason

    mccain does not like romney very much

  34. jason says:

    If Obama tried to speak surrounded by fake Greek columns now he would be laughed out of town.

  35. lisab says:

    not in germany

  36. TM says:

    The Obama Administration is apparently denying a report that the Embassy Attack in Libya was premeditated … and US officials got warning 48 hours prior.

    The Administration would have to deny … because if true … it would represent a major political problem for Obama’s reelection.

    My sense (as a former journalist) is there is some truth to the report by The Independent paper.

    The MSM can not avoid this story … as they tried to at first … opining over Romney timing of his Obama criticism of the White House response.

  37. lisab says:

    Kristen Stewart’s Bacon number is 2

    Kristen Stewart and Michael Sheen appeared in The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1.

  38. jason says:

    Is Cutler playing? Maybe he is just saving himself for the second half.

  39. lisab says:

    Lindsay Lohan’s Bacon number is 2

    Lindsay Lohan and Matt Dillon appeared in Herbie: Fully Loaded.

  40. jason says:

    The Greek column speech was in Colorado.

  41. W.PA Observer says:

    Well yeah, what are they gonna say– “We **cked up and were negligent on intelligence and security, and now an Ambassador, staffers, and former Navy seals are dead.”?

  42. Dylan says:

    North of 60 pct of the Jewish community will vote tonreelect the president. This is a significant reduction from the 80 plus pct of Jews that votedbform him in 2008 but is still shockingly high. Deems never pay the high price for failure as easily as repubs do. The electorate is so much less forgiving with republicans. Just sayin……

  43. Bitterlaw says:

    I am back from back to school night at my son’s high school. He never has 2 consecutive classes on the same floor. I am exhausted.

  44. Wobbles says:

    Well, if Politico says it is untrue, then it is untrue. Robbie what do your sources say?

  45. SusyQue says:

    Obama Administration Still Not Ready to Call Benghazi a Terror Attack

    By Patrick Goodenough CNS News Asked directly on Wednesday evening if Tuesday’s deadly violence in Libya was “linked to a terror attack”—possibly al-Qaeda—a State Department official demurred: “Frankly, we are not in a position to speak any further to the perpetrators of this attack. It was clearly a complex attack. We’re going to have to do a full investigation,” the unnamed “senior

  46. Ned Stark says:

    Really, these polls have every so self-defeated? And Author, c’mon, of all people you should know better. I’ll go through and break these down and we will see reality v. MSM spin.

  47. Ray says:

    Agree. It’s just different out there. Even in NJ, just not not seeing the enthusiasm. Best indicator is lack of Obama 2012 stickers out there. Polls are no doubt causing me some anxiety but seem disconnected from the feel out there.

  48. Wobbles says:

    According to senior diplomatic sources, the U.S. State Department had credible information 48 hours before mobs charged the consulate in Benghazi, and the embassy in Cairo, that American missions may be targeted, but no warnings were given for diplomats to go on high alert and ‘lockdown’, under which movement is severely restricted.”

    Shawn Turner, spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, emailed: “This is absolutely wrong. We are not aware of any actionable intelligence indicating that an attack on the U.S. Mission in Benghazi was planned or imminent.”

    Office of National Intelligence is not the State Department source, however. But since it is Obama, he deserves a free pass.

  49. Greymarch says:

    Romney losing Ohio would be bad news, but it wouldn’t be a disaster for Romney. If Romney holds all the states McCain won, and also wins NC, IN, VA, FL, IA, CO and NV, then Romney would tie Obama 269-269, which throws the election into the House of Representatives. The House will certainly remain in GOP hands, so Romney would be the next president. It’s an ugly and narrow path for Romney, but it’s entirely possible.

    The above scenario doesn’t even include WI or NH. Include one or both of those, and several Romney winning options become available without OH.

    The state Romney MUST HAVE is FL. Romney loses FL, it’s over.

  50. TM says:

    41 … Exactly.

    If this is shown to be true … it will be a game-changer … and will sweep Romney into the White House.

    You know the MSM wants to avoid talking about this … but they can’t. And I believe that confirmation of administration’s negligence will come out.

  51. Bitterlaw says:

    America past the tipping point? GFY. Fight or cry. I choose to fight. There must be something still good here. I keep going back to the landscapers I see in my town. They aren’t out working at 6:30 a.m. to be on foodstamps. I will trade one American Democrat for one hard-working illegal alien any time.

  52. Robbie says:


    No Republican in the modern era has won election without Ohio.

    I agree Romney could win without Ohio, but it’s hard to envision.

  53. TM says:

    The Independent quoted “diplomatic sources” … that’s state department … not NSA or CIA.

    Someone at state department has the damning emails.

    We will soon begin to hear the questions … Who knew what and when???

  54. W.PA Observer says:

    It’s much better to have Ohio, then to not have Ohio, so let’s win Ohio.

  55. Wobbles says:

    TM exactly two different agencies.

  56. Dylan says:

    Bitter. I will stay here in the California trenches even if the whole system crashes. But I will tell you, California is past the tipping point and it is a microcosm of the country. So many people struggling daily for the chance at an American dream that sadly is so out of reach. There still is a lot good even out here, but the parasites are doing their best to destroy it for the rest of us.

  57. Ronaldus Magnus says:

    Patience, patience my children. Better days are ahead for America. Always put your trust in the wisdom of the American people.

  58. Bitterlaw says:

    Dylan – I take the long view. Someday, I will be dead. It is comforting. Of course, not everybody can find the peace of the Irish Catholic American.

  59. Marv says:


    The American people are on probation until November 6th. If they elect Obama again, srew’em. I don’t care that the economy will tank and unemployment will skyrocket, too bad they voted for it.

  60. Michael says:

    Cook has made some senate flips.

  61. Marv says:


    Is there a rec center in Heaven? Maybe we could hang out and catch some football games in the TV room.

  62. Dylan says:

    Yes, you will be. But hopefully you won’t be sent to the reeducation camps first. I’m sure they will try and sell you on the viability of the American dream even in there.

  63. rdelbov says:

    Trash polls from Marist-shame on them–I already apologized to Scott on the last thread. I just assumed they would have reasonable crosstabs–how wrong I was.

  64. 100% agree Marv. It’s been my slogan this election – If we vote for 4 more years of this, we deserve the pain that’s coming

  65. Wobbles says:

    I know Romney cannot offer an opinion on the Middle East, but Hillary years ago said he (or anybody else) could. She said the following:

    “I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you’re not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration.”

  66. DW says:

    There is no need for pessimism. WE KNEW that Marist would show these kind of numbers. They had all the cover they needed from the convention bump. Why didn’t they poll right after the GOP convention? Why didn’t ANYBODY poll right after the GOP convention? Its going to take another full week to get fully out from under the shadow of this D convention. Give it another week and we will see where the race is. Its a long way until November. There were plenty of good polls for Romney today, and there will be more tomorrow. Right now, Romney is leading in all the McCain states, will easily win IN, and is leading in NC. I believe he is also leading in VA and FL is very close, with Romney probably ahead by a whisker. OH we are probably just a little behind. But I believe we also stand a great chance to win WI IA NH NV and CO.

  67. Bitterlaw says:

    Marv – Heaven? For me? God has to have some standards. Maybe General Grant will watch football with you.

  68. Dylan says:

    65. The problem with that is that the rest of us also will have endure the pain which if hyperinflation hits, will be severe.

    Marv—your Mai tais at dukes on Waikiki are gonna be 30 bucks each.

  69. jason says:

    Bitter is going to heaven???

    Who knew?

  70. Marv says:

    #65 Author…..

    Personally, I’ve made financial plans sufficient to withstand another four years of Obama. Unfortuately, there will be Romney voters who will be badly harmed by Obama’s re-election. Obama voters will be harmed too, even the food stamp welfare people. That’s because the money for them will run out. Too bad, they will have caused their own hardship……..I, basically, have little sympathy for them.

  71. Marv says:

    #69 Dylan,

    Hawaii will actually be cheap again, because the tourists won’t be able to afford the trip. Longboard draft on tap will be 50 cents per draw, so I’m set.

  72. jason says:

    Cutler looking really good…

  73. dblaikie says:

    Folks need to calm down. We should reject any poll that uses 2008 as its model. On that level alone Marist needs to go into the trash. Other polls today show Romney ahead in Florida. ARG shows Romney within one point in Ohio.

    Sometimes I think that some on this board jump from one poll to another which gives their brains whiplash.

    In the polling world the big news is that Scot Rasmussen has Romney back up and Obama back in the mid 40’s. I sure believe Rasmussen a lot more than Marist for NBC for God’s sake. Obama with a reelection number at 46 would loose to Romney to by 3 to 5 points. With Obama at 46, Romney would win over 300 electorial votes. So I will not worry or fret over a few stupid marist polls.

  74. Surfnut says:

    Denial is not a river in Egypt. Rather, it is what you all are in on this message board. Obama is well ahead right now under any objective analysis. Will he be in November is another question? But Romney is a bad candidate and his campaign is inept. Plus, he is a serial liar and the American public does not trust him and does not like him. The fantasy of a Reagan like 1980 election is laughable.

  75. Monetarist says:


  76. “I, basically, have little sympathy for them.”


  77. Dylan says:

    76. So America trusts Obama? Sheesh. The reason I am sufficiently pessimistic is because I think we see 2008 style turnout but not as a result of excitement. I think the electorate has simply “evolved” into a more robotic almost trancelike state and will show up to vote dem to perpetuate their pathetic lives. THAT is what concerns me. Deems don’t seem to need excitement to win anymore.

  78. Marv says:


    I’m still p*ssed that Vander Platts endorsed Santorum, instead of Perry in IA. Scr*w those mofo’s in Iowa. I hope the House withholds all their dang ethanol subsidy money.

  79. Hunter says:

    Most of you pretend to be politically astute but you’re actually not…

    You claim that you know the media is biased yet you fall for their crap… ALL THE TIME…

    It’s an emotional rollercoaster here…every week…

    Zero awareness by most of you…

    It’s embarrassing, really…

    All you can do “consistently” is to call anyone who disagrees or says something contrary to popular belief, a troll…

    This is the worst I’ve seen in the 8 years I’ve been coming here…

  80. jason says:

    ” Obama is well ahead right now under any objective analysis.”

    Actually he isn’t. He is marginally ahead with generous analysis.

  81. Monetarist says:

    Hi Marv,

    I agree entirely.

  82. jason says:

    Hey Hunter, feel free to get lost.

    There are thousands of blogs out there, if you don’t like it here.

  83. Wobbles says:

    Hunter, hi!!!!

  84. bio mom says:

    I will not allow Surfnut to call Romney a liar.mHe is one of the finest men ever to run. Obama is a phoney, He is the liar and incompetent.

  85. Dylan says:

    73. Ya think even at that point—when no tourists can afford the trip—-Hawaii wil go red??? It did vote Ronnie in 1984.

  86. Travis says:

    I’d be worried if I were a hired concern troll. If reports are to be believed, lefty pacs are stiffing payments left and right.

  87. Sir Albert says:

    The cake has been baked since 2009 and the obamacare cramdown. As someone who voted for Obama and who got caught up in the hoopla, and NOW, as someone who has turned, I can tell you that my friends and neighbors, all tricked by Obama in 2008, can not wait to vote for Mitt. The news pays for the polls, the pollsters don’t want to pizz off their clients. It’s called taking care of the customer.

    This is why the stand alone pollsters like Ras, Gallup can generally be more accurate. They have no one to please but their customer base which is smaller but more consumer-based. Not one big network customer. Duh!

  88. Wobbles says:

    Really? Dang it, the bastards own me for 5489 hours just here at HHR.

  89. Wobbles says:

    Well, they owe me AND own me.

  90. jason says:

    Can Cutler throw more interceptions than Vick? Stay tuned….

  91. Monetarist says:


  92. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    Christ, Cutler is stinking up the place

    Positively BrINTesque…

  93. Diamond Jim says:

    Cutler is well on his way to being the MVP this year.

  94. janz says:

    bio mom — calling Romney a liar is an across-the-board talking board on social progressive blogs and the media. It’s something they all cooked up and they keep dishing it out in unison.

  95. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:


    Ugly as Helen Thomas making out with Jabba the Hut

  96. Sir Albert says:

    Hunter you disappoint me, son.

  97. Travis says:

    Another horrible day for Obama. Lefty newspapers reporting his administration people knew at least 2 days in advance of the attack and did NOTHiNG?!

    Coming off a convention that has been universally panned and fraudulent polls, he’s gotta be thinking what everyone else is: President Romney

  98. jason says:

    The Ficus is calling the Suicide Hotline about now….

  99. Wobbles says:


    or C*NT.

  100. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    Cutler is one of the best ever Diamond Jim

    He has 70 passing yards tonight, imagine that

    If they didn’t have Forte Vanderbilt would be better than this team…

  101. Bitterlaw says:

    MFG – Cutler is not “BRINTesque.” Favre has a ring.

  102. jason says:

    Thank God Cutler is a top ten QB, or the Bears would be down by 40 instead of 20.

  103. Diamond Jim says:

    Where’s Corey to talk trash about the Packers?

  104. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    It refers to his ability to chump up picks, BL

    Cutler is BrINTesque in that

  105. Monetarist says:

    2012 Interceptions Thrown:

    C. Ponder (MIN): 0
    J. Cutler (CHI): 5

  106. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey – I wish there was a way to discuss Cutler that would only hurt Add. I’m sorry that you are collateral damage.

  107. Sir Albert says:

    I can’t even watch the news anymore. What are they reporting right now?

  108. Eli Manning says:


  109. jason says:

    Cutler almost got his ass kicked.

  110. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    Cutler can’t play at this level he just can’t how many games has he had just like this with sub 20 passer ratings?

    Ten? Twelve?

  111. Monetarist says:


    I agree.

    Corey, no offense.

  112. Jay C. says:

    When is this game going to be over???

  113. Diamond Jim says:

    Da Bears

  114. Monetarist says:

    Mitt Romney = The Green Bay Packers

    Last week, people said they were done.

  115. Wobbles says:

    The Niners looked better against the Packers than the Cutlerettes.

  116. sickofdems says:


  117. jason says:

    Maybe Cutler can get to 100 yards in garbage time.

  118. jason says:

    Where is the ficus to tell us how Cutler player really well, it’s all Brandon Marshall’s fault.

  119. jason says:

    That was stupid. All they had to do was waste about 5 minutes off the clock.

  120. Bitterlaw says:

    Rodgers pulled a Cutler.

  121. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    The next time the bullsh*t about Eli starts, remind Ficus of this game…

  122. Michael says:

    @123 that’s how my Panthers beat them n 2010, whe the Panthers went (2-14)

  123. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    When you adjust these lying fraud polls for sanity you get three more red polls.

    Tee hee

  124. Bitterlaw says:

    As an Eagles fan, I hate Eli. However, no matter how he plays in the regular season (he lost to the Eagles twice last year), he gets it done when it matters most. Comparing Cutler to him is just absurd.

  125. INDIA PAPA 727 says:


  126. jason says:

    GB gave the Bears a TD just to be nice.

  127. Michael says:

    Good night, I hope that tomorrow Obama begins to crumle in the polls

  128. Sir Albert says:

    there is no excitement for ooo. No bumper stickers. No signs. No casual water cooler talk. The only place in the world where ooo is a legend and causing excitement in on the news. H…..mmmm….

  129. jason says:

    Cutler is 10 for 25. Top 10.

  130. Bitterlaw says:

    Predict Add’s excuses:

    The O-line sucked

    The refs gave the game to GB

    The wide receivers let Cutler down

  131. jason says:

    The weather could have impacted Cutler’s performance too.

  132. Diamond Jim says:

    Looks like the Bears are the “Fudgies” since they took it up the tailpipe tonight.

  133. lisab says:

    oh no

    Egypt intelligence warns of attacks on Israel, US embassies
    09/11/2012 16:58
    Egypt’s General Intelligence Service warned that a jihadi group is planning to launch terrorist attacks against the US and Israeli embassies in Cairo, according to a report Tuesday by Egypt Independent, citing a secret letter obtained by Al-Masry Al-Youm.

    According to the report, the attack is being planned by Global Jihad, the group suspected of killing 16 Egyptian border guards in Sinai on August 5.

    Al-Masry Al-Youm reportedly obtained a copy of the September 4 letter, sent to all Egyptian security sectors, warning that Sinai- and Gaza-based Global Jihad cells were planning attacks on the two embassies.

    Egypt’s military is engaged in an ongoing campaign to root out Sinai-based terrorists.

  134. Monetarist says:

    So was that Interception #4 for Cutler?

  135. Diamond Jim says:

    The sun got in Cutler’s eyes when he threw those picks.

  136. jason says:

    I guess the play stood as called so it’s an interception.

  137. Bitterlaw says:

    They don’t poll cell phone users.*

    *That excuse gets used a lot. Why not use it for Cutler?

  138. lisab says:

    the dems are just trying to piss off the Jewish voter

    nyc Board Votes To Regulate Circumcision, Citing Risks

    The New York City Board of Health passed a regulation on Thursday that will require consent from parents before an infant can have a form of Jewish ritual circumcision, prevalent in parts of the ultra-Orthodox community, in which the circumciser uses his mouth to remove blood from the incision.

  139. lisab says:

    In an effort to educate parents, the city will now require ritual circumcisers to inform parents in writing if they will use direct oral contact during the circumcision, and must receive their written consent. The consent form states that the health department advises against the procedure because of the possibility of herpes transmission, which may cause brain damage or death. The mohelim must keep that permission document for one year.

    Failure to comply may result in warning letters or fines to the mohelim. Enforcement, though, will be based on investigation of specific complaints and herpes cases, not spot checks or raids, and there are no mandatory punishments, said Dr. Jay K. Varma, the city’s deputy commissioner for disease control.

  140. Dylan says:

    I just spent he last 30 minutes reading the last 60 or so comments on It is a different universe over there. Wow. Just wow. They actually believe theirnown bs that Romney is the Devi incarnate and Obama will win in a landslide. Just stunning. Perhaps their reality is reality. Who the he’ll knows. But very entertaining to read

  141. amy busch says:

    jerusalem post = bibi’s mouthpieces.

  142. W.PA Observer says:

    143- in 2010 they were still claiming that the Dems would GAIN seats in the House and Senate if only the populace paid attention and progressive rallied. Very pompous, “Fellow Progressives!” type of nonsense- also an absolute faith that the red states would be purple by now due to demographics. How they process that there’s been an actual drop-off in latino/afr-amer voter registration in the past four years in absolute numbers (ie there are actually fewer in number on the rolls than in 2008), is a mystery to me.

  143. W.PA Observer says:

    It’s also funny to see the conservative “trolls” or just visitors over there– except they make far better arguments than the trolls/ libs here generally.

  144. Dylan says:

    They are surprisingly vicious to the trolls there too. Very unsportsmanlike.

  145. Corey says:


    I wish the outcome of the Bears vs. Packers game tonight was different, but I am not all that surprised. Packers really needed this one as almost a “must win” situation.

    Thought though that there would be more points scored by both teams. Hopefully, the Bears defense can continue some of the things they did, and the Bears will be in good shape.

    Bears and Packers still play one more time this season. Compared to last year, I would say the Packers have clearly taken a step backwards and the Bears are clearly better.

    Jay Cutler does not deserve all the blame, by any stretch, but he did not have a good game and just does not play well at Lambaeu Field for whatever reason. The site of some of those Green Bay fans and their mustaches could adversely affect anyone, and that’s just the women!

    So, if Cutler and the Bears have to go to Lambeau again this year, it will be in the playoffs. I would prefer that they find a way to play post-season games at Soldier Field.

    I hope Paul Ryan is happy tonight and energized like never before on the campaign trail for the next week plus.

  146. jason says:

    Corey, the Bears AND Cutler REALLY sucked. Not much more to say than that.

  147. Corey says:

    The Bears did not have a good game, but besides for Clay Matthews, I don’t think the Packers were really that much better. They are nowhere near the team they were last season.

    Only two of the interceptions were Cutler’s fault. The last one was definitely not even an interception.

    Cutler threw as many TD passes as Aaron Rodgers did and the Bears defense gave up just 1 TD, as did Green Bay.

    Cutler’s offensive teammates really let him down at many points,and losing Matt Forte to injury for most of the game definitely hurts too.

    It will be an interesting rematch later this year in Chicago, but the games before that matter right now more of course.

  148. Corey says:

    I was happy when SF beat the Packers last week, but I knew GB would be all a ngry and stu.ff. They gotta live in that small town and run into their fans in the They had no choice but to win this week.

    Bears vs. 49ers for the NFC title is my guess right now.

  149. Polaris says:

    I realize this will sound a lot like what I said in 2008, but bear with me:

    If you see someone make a mistake in putting together a machine, then whatever that machine makes is going to be flawed. If you repeat that same mistake for 10 different machines, all ten machines will be flawed the same way.

    What we have shown is that virtually all the polls we have seen today are flawed the same way: They are assuming an electorate that looks like 2008 when there is NO collaberating evidence (other than the polls themselves which is circular) to support this.

    Look who’s paying for the polls, and ask who the pollster has to please and ask yourself why you are believing the topline number.

    That’s not to say the polls are worthless. They each give us a picture of how the race is going….but we have to DIG to get there.

    The bottom line is this:

    1. The state polls are (after their usual lag) now reflecting the sugar high that we started to see in the nation tracks last week.

    2. A lot of these polls are designed to MAKE news and INFLUENCE opinion and not to report on the new and opinion of the electorate itself. In this Phil is dead right.

    I am not saying all is well, and Romney will win. Right now Romney IMHO would probably lose very narrowly, but I promise you the electorate even today would not be D+7. It wouldn’t even be close.

    If you honestly believe that the electorate today even after 2010 and other races is more liberal than it was in 2008, then by all means despair and believe the top line numbers….becuase THAT is the basic assumption that most of these polls are making. If you don’t, then look at the internal data and adjust to an electoral model that is more realistic….just admit that you are doing this and don’t be polyannish.

    Honestly a lot of the polls today are VERY good news for Romney with even a fairly robust D+4 advantage, and I frankly think it will be (at worst) half that (D+2)

    For example notice in Rasmussen today (Fla and Ohio) that almost all the undeclared vote was republican (easy to show using simply algebra). Who do you think they will vote for in November….Obama? Yeah, me neither.


  150. jason says:

    ” Cutler’s offensive teammates really let him down at many points,and losing Matt Forte to injury for most of the game definitely hurts too.”

    Bingo, Bitter, except it was Corey not the Ficus that came up with it.

  151. Corey says:

    For a point of reference that I can memorize, does anyone know what the partisan turnout was in 2008 on Election Day (including early voting) for CO, FL, OH, and VA?

    Thank you.

  152. jason says:

    ” I realize this will sound a lot like what I said in 2008, but bear with me:”

    It would read better without that introduction.

  153. jason says:

    Bears are not playing for any titles if they play like tonight.

    You read it here first.

  154. Mr.Vito says:

    11-27 126yds and 4int

    Too late to trade for Tebow?

  155. Polaris says:

    #155 If I didn’t include the introduction, then people would lamblast me for that too. It is what it is. If you really think this is 2008 then go ahead and ignore what I posted.


  156. Corey says:

    Any QB in the history of the game would have struggled tonight in light of the offensive line and dropped catches, etc. There was some bad offense from both teams tonight. The Bears actually had more third down conversions than the Packers did. I actually sort of good about how the Bears D played tonight and I really do think this will be an aberration for the offense.

    I am convinced jason just misses Cutler in Denver and feels jilted.

  157. Polaris says:

    #154 Yes. The DRI in 2008 was:

    D39/R32/I29 iirc


  158. Corey says:

    Not that it really matters, but that 4th INT was clearly an incomplete pass. One INT was totally Earl Bennett’s fault.

    Of course, if they play like they did tonight, they won’t win much, but I don’t think they will. If the Saints played like they did in Week 1,they won’t be going anywhere either for example.

  159. Corey says:

    Thanks Polaris for what have to be the national numbers.

    Maybe somebody knows about the specific swing states.

  160. Polaris says:

    #161 I think it also shows that Indy is still a bad team (at least for this year), not that that is any great revelation.


  161. Polaris says:

    #162 Sorry, I thought you wanted the national numbers. I believe that someone else posted key state numbers here. See if I can’t find them for you.


  162. Mr.Vito says:

    “Any QB in the history of the game would have struggled tonight in light of the offensive line and dropped catches, etc.”


    What, no?

  163. Polaris says:

    h/t #19 reposted here by request:

    19.Here’s some data for comparison. The numbers use CNN exits polls from 2004 and 2008 to compare with the D/R/I of the Marist polls:

    Florida: 2004: 37/41/23 R+4; 2008: 37/34/29 D+3; Marist: 35/33/30 D+2

    Ohio: 2004: 36/40/24 R+4; 2008: 39/31/30 D+8; Marist 38/28/32 D+10

    Virginia: 2004: 35/39/26 R+4; 2008: 39/33/28 D+6; Marist 31/26/43 D+5


  164. Corey says:

    Poor Tebow. He’s totally going to be wasting an entire year of his career where he is now. Not that I think he is really a good QB at the NFL level.

  165. Polaris says:

    #167 Poor tebow makes more (probably) than the two of us combined. I find it difficult to be too sorry for him.


  166. Mr.Vito says:

    Tonight’s update of the trashpoll-o-meter…

    87.4% of the polls are wrong!

    This update brought to you by Socks Emporium of Lower West Albuquerque…

  167. Polaris says:

    #170 In other news 83.4% of all statistics are made up! (jk)


  168. Corey says:

    I think we are seeing in general throughout the league that these replacement referees are giving most of the iffy stuff to whomever the home team is.

  169. Corey says:

    Yes, Tebow makes more than any of this on the blog combined make (including MD)and has more women who want him too I guess.

  170. Polaris says:

    #171 Yeah, I noticed that too. I suspect (will definately have better data by next Mon) that the louder the home stadium, the more the replacement refs will give the home team the benefit of the doubt.


  171. Dylan says:

    The electorate changes every election cycle in some fashion that is not predictable from the previous election. So in 2008, you saw huge excitement for the dems. In 2004 you saw huge excitement and motivation from both sides but bush had the gotv juggernaut and squeaked it out. My concern, and this is not intended to be an eeyoreing, is that the electorate change we see in 2012 is just mindless automatons showing up and voting Obama but without the excitement. Maybe that is one possible explanation for the polls. I fully realize this is not scientific, just a bad vibe I’m getting.

  172. Corey says:

    There is a big difference in telling a pollster, automated or not, that you are going to vote for Obama, and maybe they even really think they intend to, and actually making it out to vote.

    The message being absolutely permeated though throughout the mainstream media an throughout pop culture is that you are only “cool” if you vote for Obama and voting for someone other than Obama makes you “lame.”

    There are people out there who are probably to afraid to admit to anyone that they do not want to vote for Obama.

    I know that people were anticipating some of that in 2008, but back then he had the benefit of the doubt in regards to the hope and change. I don’t know if it will be a huge difference, but I do think in this cycle he will always poll better than he will eventually fare at the polls.

  173. Sir Albert says:

    Dylan, I agree. These obamabots are simply stupid, brainwashed skulls of SPAM. So manipulated. I find it rare that individuals actually think for themselves anymore. Still, I think the right direction/wrong direction is the key to the election and Romney will win handily.

    Rasmussen is the gold standard.

  174. Polaris says:

    #174 Actually that isn’t true Dylan. The partisan of the electorate changes very slowly unless there is some massive outside shock or a realignment election. In the case of 2008, it was due to a massive outside shock.

    If you consider 2008 to be anomalous for that reason and look at all other election cycles both presidential and “off year” since 1980, you find that the Partisan balance changes only very slowly (1-2% tops) over a period of YEARS.

    Futhermore the change can be predicted not only with new registration surges (which are public record) but also PEW does a decent job (at least until it’s election season) of monitering how the partisan balance of this country slowly changes.

    If you followed that change, you’d note that 2004 was PUSH, 2006 was D+2, 2010 was PUSH, and the trend in registrations has been GOP trending but the Pew data has been slightly Dem leading. I note to compare that 1996 was D+5 and 2000 was D+3.

    I think you see immediately that 2008 was a BLIP. It was a REAL blip (which is the fundamental thing I got wrong in 2008) but a blip nonetheless caused by collapseing money supply and economy in general over a period of weeks in the middle of an election campaign.


  175. John says:

    How is Romney losing Ohio by 7 when he is up with Independents by 3?
    How is Romney losing Virginia by 5 when he is up with Independents by 2?

  176. Polaris says:

    #179 It makes perfect sense if you’re dreaming like it’s 2008.


  177. Dylan says:

    I hear you Polaris, and your points are cogent and credible in that regard. I am simply trying to supply some out of the box explanations for the bad polling that are separate from the “flawed assumption” analysis on the composition of the electorate. Assume for the sake of hypothetical that the electorate has hit some sort of “tipping point” that causes a partisan change of greater than 1-2 pct (maybe more like 2-4pct) that shows up in presidential elections only from this point forward and manifests itself by “mindless” support of an incumbent that supports policies that they perceive they benefit from regardless of whether the country as a whole is hurt by them. My concern is more along these qualitative lines than anything that can be supported by hard math or stats. Just musing here late on the left coast.

  178. Dylan says:

    Otoh, I could see 2012 being a much closer version of 2004. I just hate the thought of multi theater recounts. I just don’t have the stomach for it.

  179. Polaris says:

    #181 I hear ya. I think we are periously close to the tipping point where those that take and don’t contribute can out vote and will want to outvote those that contribute. That said, I choose to be somewhat optimistic and think we aren’t quite there yet.

    If we are, then there is no point in the entire exercise.


  180. Authortrian Government Forever says:

    “The nature of government, of course, is coercive and authoritarian. Even though I favored a forceful response to 9/11 to apprehend the guilty, I continued to see the government as the primary threat to liberty. This pre-9/11 mentality is informed by thousands of years of history. All those thousands of years of governments subjugating their peoples, more often exposing them to foreign threats than protecting them, should weigh at least as heavily as the emotional power of September 11, 2001. Much more happened in the world before 9/11 than after.

    The week after 9/11 I remember thinking about how, even after the murderous attacks of 9/11, the U.S. government still had a far greater American death toll to answer for. It had killed many, many thousands through the FDA. It had killed hundreds of thousands in its wars, conscripting men to die for causes they might not believe in. In terms of liberty, the terrorists could never take that way. Only the government could. And it did, through airport security theater, destruction of the Fourth Amendment and habeas corpus, warrantless wiretapping, indefinite detention and torture, and trillions in taxes to pay for it all.

    We have come to where perpetual war abroad, even in pursuit of bin Laden’s ghost, is accepted as a natural component of American reality. We surrender our dignity at the airports without thinking. We see the militarization of local police and figure it must be necessary and wise.

    Before 9/11 I saw government as a necessary evil, the greatest threat to its own subjects’ life and liberty, but an essential bulwark of protection against domestic criminals and foreign aggressors. The experience shortly after 9/11 challenged this important element to this thinking. Bush’s wars in Afghanistan and, via the Patriot Act, on the American people demonstrated that even at its one most celebrated function, the state is the opposite of what it pretends to be. It doesn’t stop threats; it exacerbates them. It doesn’t shield freedom; its every action, particularly in the name of protection, undermines freedom. It does not defend life; it treats human life as an expendable commodity for its own ends. I no longer saw government as necessary or effective in defending its people.

    Four years ago, a new presidential candidate won the presidential election. Here we are at the end of his first term and there is no sign of the stampede toward the total state letting up any time soon. Two major wars based on lies and propaganda that have hurt more Americans than 9/11 did, to say nothing of millions of foreigners killed, maimed or displaced from their homes; myriad military operations throughout the globe; thousands rounded up without justice and dozens tortured to death; the presidency adopting the absolute power over life and death over any individual on earth,

    and priceless liberties shredded on the altar of power without anything to show for it.

    But the experience has surely disabused me of my pre-9/11 mentality. Before 9/11, I was naive enough to think that government, however clumsy and dangerous at home, might protect us from foreign threats. Now I realize that is perhaps the biggest lie in human history.”

  181. david says:

    I hate to be negative…but, I feel these MSM bias polls are starting to hurt Romney by decreasing the Republican morale and creating a “bandwagon” effect towards President Obama. It’s ashame that some people vote like they support their sporting team….voting for the candidate that is ahead…they want to be with the winner. So Sad and the media knows this.

    I hope I am wrong…I am more concern with the bandwagon effect than the morale issue.

  182. Tim says:

    Ah, here we go again. The polls are all wrong because they don’t deliver the desired result.

  183. Scott says:

    Here are the bottom lines on the Marist Polls:
    1) all three are Dem heavy
    2) after tons of negative advertising against Romney and for a poll taken within days after the Dem convention,Marist has shown almost no movement toward Obama since its last poll in May. Obama has gained 1 pt. in each State since May.
    3) Yesterday, I warned everyone about Marist.In February,Marist had Obama up by 17% in VA and 13% in Ohio.
    4) If Obama’s approval ratings recede, Romney will gain

  184. Scott says:

    By the by,because of yesterday’s Fed action crude oil is trading at $100.32 per barrel.

  185. Brandon says:

    Obviously Obama will win because Romney voters will see the polls and decide to change their support.

  186. Tim says:

    Why, of course they will, Brandon. LOL

  187. Tim says:

    That’s what Rasmussen and ARG had planned in individual state polling, all along. It’s a vast, left-wing conspiracy.

  188. bio mom says:

    The electorate doesn’t seem to care a fig that the economy is going over a cliff, that our lack of coherent foreign policy is endangering us, that he doesn’t even take his security briefings seriously,or that the president is an incompetent fool. They care that he is cool, engages in jive talk on radio programs and late night TV shows, and tweaks their resentments by blaming “the rich” for all of their and the country’s problems. In short, the electorate is composed of ignorant, immature people, uninformed people. They will probably reelect this loser and then he can look around for someone else to blame everything on that he inherited from…..himself.

  189. Scott says:

    #191- Tim
    No,Tim. The Left wants to feel good and be talked to gently and sweetly. The Left has sh-t for brains!

  190. Scott says:

    #192- bio mom

  191. BayernFan says:

    I’m seeing a lot of Obama 2012 bumper stickers the last week or two. Still it’s Indianapolis do there you go.

  192. Todd McCain says:


    Obama 49%
    Romney 46%

    LV, Sep 8-12

    Good news for Mitt.

  193. Todd McCain says:

    Also, according to the poll, Romney leads indies by 11 points.

    I am skeptical of polls from Ohio and Florida showing Romney down among this group — polling consistently — Gallup, CNN, CBS etc is showing Romnmey winning the Indy vote.

  194. RB says:

    Not a bad number considering it included Obama’s big weekend and the early part of this week.

  195. Todd McCain says:

    Not bad at all.

    Here are more tid bits:

    R 90% Romney 7% Obama
    D 91% Obama 5% Romney
    I 51% Romney 40% Obama

    I wish Romney could get to 10% of D’s.

  196. Wobbles says:

    Romney up 11 among indies – what is the party ID?

  197. RB says:

    Romney probably gets around 10% crossover, unless the southern democrats who gave canadate ‘none of the above’ 40% of the vote in some primary states are now telling pollsters that they are independents.

  198. Todd McCain says:

    Maybe Brandon, Polaris or Frank can figure out the DRI numbers. From the looks, it seems to be at least D+4

  199. Wobbles says:

    Rs more enthusiastic than Ds in the cbs poll.

    Also, no party id found?

  200. Frank says:


    CBS poll: D+7 or D+8

    D+6 would be 48/46
    D+5 would be 48/47
    D+4 would be 47/47
    D+3 would be 47/48
    D+2 would be 46/48
    D+1 would be 46/49
    D+0 would be 45/49
    R+1 would be 45/50
    R+2 would be almost 44/50


  201. Hunter says:

    Consistent thread starting to occur with a majority of these polls…

    Indy’s are starting to break towards Romney…

    Seems as if there are higher %’s being captured recently…

  202. BayernFan says:

    Romney was doing better when he and the GOP were attacking Obama for raiding Medicare. Pure Alinsky in attacking Obama on obama’s perceived strength,

    The same thing is called for here. Obama’s strength is foreign policy? Then attack him for siding with the terrorists by apologizing first the way he did. Relentlessly. If any McCain or noonan types resist, muzzle them.

  203. Wobbles says:

    It is not MccAin, he slammed Obama for the feckless foreign policy. It is the Peggy Noonan and Joe Scarborough types..

  204. BayernFan says:

    On this stuff I think after a good start the other morning Romney is a bit slow in the trigger. I would call for suspending all aid to Libya and Egypt immediately and for a thorough review of all aid to the ME Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pure political gold that would be.

  205. Hunter says:

    Who cares what Peggy Noonan says…

    Honestly, the only people who give her a second look are Beltway has-beens such as herself or Dem media trying to push the meme that Repubs are turning on Romney…

    Honestly, Repubs are really good at eating their own while Dems are loyal to a fault…

    We listen to the media narrative way too much and actually want to be liked by them…

  206. BayernFan says:

    People are suck of watching slovenly ME people milling around all day and night burning stuff and railing against the USA. They work all day at tenuous jobs and have to come home and watch that on TV?

    Romney needs to capture that anger and leave Obama stuttering. Go after Libya and Egypt.

    It would be as if McCain in 2008 had called for the complete rejection of the bailouts back then.

  207. Obama +3 and under 50% in a D+7-8 poll? sounds like good news to me.

  208. Wobbles says:

    The poll is very good news. Rs are alsmo more enthusiastic by 9 points, over Ds – see page 2.

    We continue to see double digit leads among indies.

  209. rdelbov says:

    Historically, as in 2008, the Rs were loyal to their candidate then the Ds were to theirs. Even in 2008 we saw that. +8D among likely voters seems very possible in this poll.

    CBS is projecting 2008 on steriods.

    I do not buy it.

    I might add for our concern trolls 3% is safely within the MOE of this poll. So while Obama leads in this poll statwise a Romney win is possiablity as its within MOE. So per RCP standards this race is a tossup with no clear leader based on that stat.

  210. mnw says:

    It’s hard to be REALLY, REALLY, REALLY enthusiastic here in “legitimate rape” ground zero country.

    I sent Crossroads GPS (Rove’s PAC) another check yesterday. At my age, I don’t have the time or energy to do any more than that. My days of phoning & doorbelling are over. I’m afraid.

  211. mnw says:

    gold hit a 6-month high yesterday… $1775/oz.

    “The real question is: do you have faith in policymakers to deliver a solution?”

    May I see hands of those who have such faith?

  212. Zogby/JZ Analytics

    Obama 48%
    Romney 42%

    Dems 43%
    GOP 39%

  213. SoHope says:

    So, Egypt….ally…not an ally…

    Marines…no marines….

    Ammo…no ammo…

    State Dept had warning….didn’t have warning…

    Blaming American citizen’s free speech…not blaming free speech…


  214. mnw says:

    Romney’s political default mode seems to be “risk aversion.”

    It’s not working. It’s funny that such a bold entrepreneur would try to run this kind of strange campaign.

    Attack or die. Fill in the specifics or die.


    Guess that’s Rasmussen

  216. Wobbles says:

    Retail sales exc. autos up 0.8%. Rise was mainly due to gasoline prices.

  217. Wobbles says:

    Oh no, that result shows that Romney’s attack on foreign policy was brilliant.

  218. Wobbles says:

    A poster here wrote that Romney is ceding foreign policy to Obama, and backing down. This is not the case in the WP article I mentioned above.

  219. mnw says:

    The Ryan pick was bold, but since then he’s regressed.

  220. bio mom says:

    I sadly must agree that Romney is too cautious. A tweet this morning said that in his ABC interview(I guess this morning) he pulled back from criticizing Obama foreign policy on Iran and seemed to agree with it. He also tried to actually help explain what Obama meant by the Egypt not an allay comment. I admit I do not understand that. He really must be running a get the indies and disaffected Dems strategy. We would love him to be an attack dog. This disappoints me.

  221. Wobbles says:

    Author, the polling results should show Romney’s robust challenge on foreign policy.

  222. Wobbles says:

    The tweet is incorrect on Iran. He offered multiple points of differences.

  223. bio mom says:

    Thanks Wobbles, That is why I usually reserve judgment until I myself can hear the interviews, etc. I should have known better. I will try to find some time to go to the ABC website to listen to it online.

  224. mnw says:

    Gotta break some eggs if u want the omelet.

    British royals should simply assume that cameras are always on them, & therefore not get naked. Kind of the way that good radio & TV announcers work on the principle that “there’s no such thing as a dead mike.”

  225. FWIW

    RCP Averages

    09.14.12: Obama +3.3
    09.14.08: McCain +2.4
    09.14.04: Bush +5.7

  226. Scott says:

    Zogby is still polling? And showing a nice lead for Obama.I remember in February, 2004, Zogby went on the Larry Elder Show in LA and said that Bush 43 had no avenue to beating John Kerry!

  227. iligitimi publieye says:


  228. Frank says:


    North Carolina: Romney 51-46


  229. iligitimi publieye says:





  230. GA Voter says:

    Look to the debates. Independents will tune in given the middle east situation and the infusion of $ by the Feds. No surprise there.

    Given the finiky voter base, Romney does not want to peak too soon, but needs to be within the MOE to win.

    Also, when have we seen polls with a MOE at over 3% be accurate? I saw one on TV with a MOE of 6%. In my stats class, that was considered bad data. Thoughts?

  231. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    The problem is that yesterday Bernanke basically endorsed EmptyChair for President

    I’m still amazed by the open ended unlimited QE

    A big market rally makes our position very tenuous

  232. Wobbles says:

    In the interview, Romney cited polls in Florida and Ohio showing him up. They must be internals.

  233. phoenixrisen says:

    #221 — Holy crap, Romney had a big day. This Egypt/Libya thing could be hurting Obama big time.

  234. Todd McCain says:

    Romney will win NC 53-47

  235. iligitimi publieye says:

    The executive power of government was exalted to be the paramount power, uncontrollable, and the exquisite Constitutional mechanism of three co-equal powers — the Congress to make laws, the President to execute the laws and the Supreme Court to interpret the laws — no longer functioned

    the people’s pottage

  236. Wobbles says:

    With Qe3 – inflation will only rise. The gasoline prices will just go higher and higher too.

  237. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    NC – Red polls all the way to November 6th.

    Tee hee

  238. Todd McCain says:

    If the polls dont show +8 dem weights, Romney would be up in these states.

  239. phoenixrisen says:

    #237 — Won’t happen. The higher gas and food prices resulting from QE3 will cause people to spend less and decrease economic activity.

  240. iligitimi publieye says:

    Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

    ~~~C. S. Lewis

  241. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    God bless Drudge

    If it weren’t for him none of these disasters from this despicable administration would see the light of day

  242. robbles says:

    I think Romney got burned on foreign policy and is now a bit gun shy.

  243. iligitimi publieye says:

    Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the Government’s purposes are beneficent. Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.

    Justice Louis D. Brandeis, dissenting, Olmstead v. United States, 277 US 479 (1928)

  244. mnw says:

    “a big market rally”:

    Thin trading.

    Two things zero does REALLY well: 1) sell handguns; & 2) world’s premier gold bug.

  245. SwahiliParakeetsForRomneyRyan2012 (Louisiana) says:

    I dunno Phoenix

    All this @sshole has to go is get through these next seven weeks and he’s home free…

  246. iligitimi publieye says:


  247. robbles says:

    Romney is all bark and no bite. He is by nature risk averse. I think we already knew that.

  248. mnw says:

    Based on his BUSINESS career, Romney is Amarillo Slim.

  249. Clubber says:

    248- It’s a sad day in America when we have depend on the foreign press for the truth!!

  250. DW says:


    North Carolina: Romney 51-46


    –looks like the Dems had a brilliant call there to put their convention in Charlotte.

  251. Wobbles says:

    The interview was a bit passive overall, but he had some good /funny lines.

    He said that while the goal is no nukes for Iran (he and Obama have the same goal)- he was critical of Obama’s approach. Interview discussed his family household – eating – kids throwing food- chaotic.

  252. Wobbles says:

    We need to see the Ras #s because it appears that Romney had some big evenings the last two days.

  253. Frank says:


    2008: 14-Sep/50%/47%/+3%
    2012: 14-Sep/50%/47%/+3%

    August & September trends (no leaners)


    August & September trends (with leaners)


    Rolling 7-Day Averages (with leaners)

    Romney had a 49 fall off, as he will tomorrow.


    Rolling 7-Day Averages (no leaners)


    McCain/Obama/2008 (with leaners)

    7-Day Rolling Average:

    This was the middle of McCain’s bounce.


    Difference 2008 vs. 2012 (with leaners)


    August Average:

    (no leaners) 45.55%/44.74%/+0.81%
    (with leaners) 47.74%/46.10%/+1.65%

    September Average:

    (no leaners) 46.43%/45.79%/+0.64%

    (with leaners) 48.14%/47.00%/+1.14%

    Continue to stay patient, my friends. Rasmussen has ALWAYS been right.


  254. mnw says:

    But based on his presidential campaign, Romney gets up every morning & puts on a belt AND suspenders.

  255. Frank says:

    Rasmussen: JA 48/52


  256. Frank says:

    Rasmussen, Indies:



  257. Wobbles says:

    Bounce is over.

  258. Scott says:

    Good news from Ras on a day when a big Romney number burned-off!
    You gotta love the Tar Heel State!

  259. RB says:

    Good national numbers from Ras. Is he seeing the same race as he saw 2 weeks ago or is the spike the result of the chaos in the middle east.

  260. Frank says:

    Romney (Total/GOP/Dem/Indies)

    no leaners
    Romney 48/86/13/44
    Obama 45/9/83/42

    with leaners
    Romney 50/88/13/47
    Obama 47/10/83/47


  261. SoHope says:

    you are welcome

  262. Pitchaboy says:

    Huge Romney day yesterday. Middle east?

  263. Robbie says:

    This all comes down to party ID and who we believe has it right. In one corner, we’ve got Rasmussen. In the other corner, we’ve got most of the public data.

    Given Rasmussen’s public track record with national polling, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. And I’m also a firm believer party ID will not look like 2008 in 2012.

  264. Todd McCain says:

    8 pt swing in one week. Wow.

  265. Wobbles says:

    Party Id needs to be plus 10 for the Ds. If it is not, toss the poll.

  266. Todd McCain says:

    What is Ras’ current weight? D+1?

  267. Hunter says:

    Ras and Pew have been the most consistent last 2 cycles…

  268. Frank says:

    Rasmussen: Virginia @ noon

  269. Wobbles says:

    Before we get more politico stories, Romney is not backing down on foreign policy. See the WP article I linked to earlier. Also, in the interview on GMA, he said that he stood behind the statement. Wish that he added that there needs to be an investigation and why the consulate was not protected.

  270. wow Frank Ras is really aggressively polling states now, I hope it’s a new trend

  271. SoHope says:

    Samuel L. Jackson will film a provocative spot supporting President Obama’s re-election bid as early as tomorrow — telling voters to “Wake the f–k up, Vote for Obama.”

    The ad is a riff on Jackson’s viral video “Go the F–k to Sleep,” where he narrates a children’s book written by Adam Mansbach.

    It’s paid for by the Jewish Council for Education and Research Super PAC — which earlier this summer aired an ad of comedian Sarah Silverman offering “free lesbian sex” to billionaire Sheldon Adelson if he stopped supporting GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

  272. DW says:

    The Marist polls came out after hours, so I missed out on the dissecting of them…just wanted to remind everyone the sample sizes taken between the gravis VA poll and marist

    Gravis 2238 – Romney +5
    marist 996 – Obama +5

  273. Frank says:

    Rasmussen is using a R+1 (approximately) for their national poll. State polls depend on the state.


  274. Ray says:

    I have Romney at least +4 (48-44) last night (w/o leaners) to edge up to 48-45.

    My last 3 nights (w/o leaners):
    T: 46R-44O
    W: 49R-48O
    Th: 48R-44O

    I have Approval at 48-51 last night to get to 48-52 (Terrible approval day yesterday, 45-55, will roll off Sun)

  275. Frank says:

    I had Romney 50/47 yesterday with leaners.


  276. DW says:

    I guess rasmussen will be the tiebreaker on VA

  277. Frank says:

    I had approval at 47 yesterday.



  278. Frank says:

    I hope that Rasmussen polls states at least once/week.


  279. dblaikie says:

    Well it looks the disconnect between the media and what people actually think is alive and well. It just goes to prove when you stand up for America, our right of free speech, and tell Arab Brotherhood to go to hell, the media may not like it, but the people do. Just three days ago all the pundits believed Romney was toast. The joke is on them.

  280. Yolanda says:

    Romney should just steer clear from a lot of foreign policy talk. Here’s the thing: most voters don’t care!

    Romney should only utter four words between now and Election Day:

    –Broken promises

    Just keep repeating those, on a loop, and the dense undecideds and swingers will eventually get it. Words like “Libya” and “Iran” are just going to make them change the channel to Honey Boo Boo, or whatever the f**k abomination is on tv nowadays.

  281. Bitterlaw says:

    Well, Kate Middleton is no Senator Ayotte or Mrs. Bitterlaw.I guess Eiropeans just like to go topless and can’t stop themselves.

  282. Yolanda says:


    Dear Mr. Jackson:

    “Shut the f**k Up!”

    Respectfully yours,

  283. Yolanda says:

    Where are the topless paparazzi photos of Newt Gingrich?!!

  284. dblaikie says:

    Let’s see Romney in CBS’s world is 3 points behind nationally but 11 points ahead independents. I want the number crunchers here to figure that one out with party id.

  285. SusyQue says:

    Barack Obama’s Passivity in Crisis
    The Chair Really Is Empty

  286. robbles says:

    And now they are nagging Romney again about his taxes. Geez, if the guy doesn’t want to disclose information to the public, we should just leave him alone.

  287. DW says:

    Great numbers from Rasmussen – a 3 point national lead translates into about 300 EVs for Romney.

  288. Jeff G. says:

    Does anyone know the partisan weights Rasmussen had on its Florida and Ohio polls from yesterday?

  289. leesa bee says:

    I’m not flat. I’m Duchess-like.

  290. Scott says:

    Industrial Production down 1.2% in August according to the Feds. Utilization Capacity also down by 1%.
    If we are not already in a recession,the move by the Fed’s yesterday by weakening the dollar and causing food stuffs and petro prices to inflate,will surely cause one!

  291. Ray says:

    If Obama’s talking about taxes again something’s got him rattled.

  292. Todd McCain says:

    Very happy to see the approval flip back to negative. Cant wait for Gallup to go to LV.

  293. Scott says:

    There is a lot wrong with the Marist Florida Poll,but the biggest crock is that Obama will receive 96% of the Dem. vote this year. Marist obviously did not survey Dems. in the Panhandle or disaffected Jews,especially the older ones.

  294. SoHope says:

    “When we said that Steve King … is pro-life and believes in cutting Social Security and voted for the Ryan budget, no one cared,” Arnold said. “When we said Steve King’s a racist, Steve King believes that immigrants ought to be put in electric fences, people moved.”

  295. Jeff G. says:

    If RAS is using the same method to determine the partisan ID, then I am confident in its national number. RAS was using D+7 in 2008, which is exactly what CNN’s national exit polls showed. And RAS’s final topline number was 52-46, which a few tenths of a percent off each number. He was even closer in 2004. Yet, the liberal pollsters say he is a partisan hack.

  296. “Yet, the liberal pollsters say he is a partisan hack.”

    they base that on ONE bad HI poll from 2010, Silverhack has been the most prominent in claiming this

  297. DW says:

    today’s gallup tracking will finally filter out the poll taken the day after Clinton’s speech.

  298. mnw says:


    No half measures! Just call King a “serial child killer” & get ‘er done.

  299. Sir Albert says:


  300. rdelbov says:

    Scott spot as industrial productions drops and yes manufacturing in August is dropping and going down fast.

    Yup inflation went up at .6% at the consumer level but based the increase in wholesale inflation from TH its likely we will continue to see more inflation.

  301. Phil says:

    I’d love to get a peak at the Romney campaign’s state by state tracking numbers – if only for one night.

  302. rdelbov says:

    D corps +5 Obama (+11 D model)
    CBS +3 Obama (+8 D model)
    RAS +3 Romney (+1R to even model)

    Of course Party ID does not matter in polling?

  303. Phil says:

    Scott, I suggest you go to the Economic Cycle Research Institute website. They put up an interview with the head guy yesterday.

    He says we are in recession big time and the revisions over the next three months will prove it. Very informative.

  304. Unknown says:

    There is no way this ticket can win!!! These 2 clowns need to step down and a Sarah Palin /Ron Paul or Newt should replace them. This is the worst ticket ever worse than Dole/Kemp,Ford/Dole or Bush/Quayle. If this ticket stays on is a for sure winner for Barack Obama can you say 4 more years!!! Romney/Ryan ticket just plainly Sucks!!!!

  305. hugh says:

    dw someone said yesterday that gallup was going to 14 day tracking starting today. I am not sure its true, but if it is we will see the post clinton numbers for another week.

  306. Known says:

    There is no way this ticket can win!!! These 2 clowns need to step down and a Mark Warner/Andrew Cuomo should replace them. This is the worst ticket ever worse than Dukakis, Gore/Lieberman or Kerry/Edwards. If this ticket stays on is a for sure winner for Mitt Romney. can you say only 1 term!!! Obama/Biden ticket just plainly Sucks!!!!

  307. Middle Of The Roader, Swears He's On No One's Side says:

    “Of course Party ID does not matter in polling?”

    of course not, you guys are in denial! ha ha! But I have no dog in the hunt, I swear.

  308. Known says:

    313—that was me, and it was a joke to point out how believable something like that would be.

  309. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    I see our troll team did a great job last night! Those Marist polls were the shot in the arm we needed here at the DNC troll center.

  310. Middle Of The Roader, Swears He's On No One's Side says:

    @317 you bet! I mean, oops. I don’t know

  311. PBGNick says:

    Do we know what Party ID breakdown Gallup is using? A week or so ago,a post here claimed that Rove had said it was D+8. That seems unlikely to me; and I don’t recall that anyone ever provided a link or verified the claim. But I also don’t recall that anyone has suggested another number. So do we know, or think we know, what Gallup is really using? Thanks.

  312. DW says:

    Number of polls of the key states of IA and WI since either convention:


  313. DW says:

    One thing for certain…after this election there is no such thing as an honest moderate/independent. The GOP offers up a moderate candidate in Mitt Romney, against a radical big government socialist, who has been an abysmal failure on the economy and utter ineptitude in foreign policy. Any moderate/independent who votes Obama was clearly a hard leftist all along.

  314. Middle Of The Roader, Swears He's On No One's Side says:

    New Jersey: Romney vs. Obama

    Fairleigh Dickinson
    Obama 52
    Romney 38

    Obama +14

    haha! I mean, um, I have no dog in this hunt

  315. DW says:


    Romney 38
    Obama 52


    Fairleigh Dickinson

    So this poll was taken during the sweet spot after the Dem convention (about the 100th poll it seems taken at this time, while almost none were taken after the GOP convention), and yet their late July poll had it 49/36 in Jersey, so not much difference.

  316. John says:

    Little known fact and buried in CNN’s news…

    Are You Better Off Today Than Four Years Ago?

    37% Yes 44% No

    33% Yes 50% No

    This is from CNN of all people

  317. Phil says:

    RAS swing state


    with leaners

    Romney 48-47

  318. Frank says:

    Rasmussen Swing-State

    48/47 (R/D)

    JA 49/51


    So, a whole bunch are leaning Romney


  319. Phil says:

    One thing consistent in the RAS polling. Romney holding his party better.

  320. Wobbles says:

    I now think Romney was too aggressive in his response to the crisis in the Middle East. He should have been more passive.

  321. DW says:

    Frank, and don’t forget that PA and MI are in that Ras swing state weighing down the numbers.

  322. Wobbles says:

    Enthusiasm is higher among Rs than Ds. This is evident in the CBS poll, as an example.

    Also, one thing, post convention, Obama is losing independents by high single to low double digits.

  323. Phil says:

    RAS releases Virginia late this morning.

    Jensen finishing up his Virginia poll tonight I believe. Marist should give him cover to throw out any outrageous number he wants to trot out.

  324. Viceroy Argus says:

    Also remember that the swing state poll is seven days.

  325. Robbie says:

    This tweet was retweeted by James Pethokoukis. It speaks to the difficulties Ohio presents for Romney.

    Dan Hirschhorn?@DanTheDaily

    Romney insider on #Ohio – “It’s been stubborn for us. Even when we pick up a few points overall, we’re still down in Ohio.”

    Retweeted by James Pethokoukis

  326. Ray says:

    Ras SS: Good night for Romney rolled on (R +4-ish), next 4 days have good Obama nights rolling off (O +2 to +4).

  327. Obama insider says:

    Obama insider on #Ohio – “It’s been stubborn for us. Even when we pick up a few points overall, we’re still down in Ohio.”

    Retweeted by Doufus for Obamus

  328. DW says:

    I predict Rasmussen will show Romney +2 in VA and PPP(D) will show Obama +4

  329. Robbie says:

    Honestly, I’m not sure why Ohio has been so tricky for Romney. Maybe it’s cultural. Maybe it’s the auto bailout.

    In 2010 though, John Kasich had to hold off a late charge from Strickland despite his very low approval ratings.

    Romney just needs to make sure he campaigns in Ohio every single day between now and election day.

  330. Wobbie Tingles says:


  331. rdelbov says:

    Retail sales were up in August due to higher gas prices. Just the recovery we were looking for

  332. SusyQue says:

    The Abandonment
    Not since its birth has Israel been so cast adrift by its closest ally.
    Woe, Woe Woe to obama, he has chosen to be cursed by God himself. “Those that bless Israel will be blessed, and those who curse Israel will be cursed.” American Jews who voted for ooo need to change course, and vote for Romney in this election. Why can’t Jews see that ooo has nothing to offer except continuous failure in all his endeavors. May the conscience of every Jew in this nation be pricked and their blind eyes opened to see how a vote for ooo is a vote agains Israel…sacred to God.

  333. rdelbov says:

    Wobbles all of this good news for Romney today and our concern troll finds bad news. The 1st positive post will be his 1st positive post.

  334. Wobbles says:

    I am twubbled and concern and concerned and twubbled.

  335. DW says:

    Report from VA: I Took a bike ride around several neighborhoods last night. These are very racially diverse neighborhoods. AA families are very well represented, probably at about 40%. Another 40% white and remaining 20% either latino or asian.

    I counted signed and bumper stickers. Take a guess the total number of either Obama yard signs or Obama bumper stickers I counted…How many did I see?

  336. Wobbles says:

    Whoops – reporter is from one of the
    Pittsburg pubs, but the event occurred in WI.

  337. Robbie says:

    341.Wobbles all of this good news for Romney today and our concern troll finds bad news. The 1st positive post will be his 1st positive post.

    Comment by rdelbov — September 14, 2012 @ 10:19 am

    It’s called reality. Story after story says Ohio is a tough sled for Romney and you want to ignore them because they go against your hope.

    I want Romney to win Ohio, but what’s wrong with acknowledging things are tough there with 53 days to go?

  338. Phil says:

    RAS VA

    Obama 49-48

  339. Phil says:

    Party ID

    R38 D36 I25

  340. Wobbie Tingles says:

    i’m starting to think Obama leads by a MOE in VA, OH, and FL

  341. Robbie says:


    Romney’s own pollster told NRO that Ohio is tough sledding. Is he lying too.

    Newhouse: Ohio is going to be a very tight race. There has been some stuff written about us pulling out of the race there, or something like that. My response: When hell freezes over. We feel confident that we’re going to win the state. Make no mistake, it’s tough sledding, and we understand that it’ll be a challenge. It’s a difficult state for us. But we pull out when hell freezes over.

  342. DW says:

    Virginia will go 52/47 for Romney in the end. Strange that Rasmussen had so few undecideds.

  343. Wobbles says:

    Politico poll indicates that Romney is down 4 in Ohio. The reporter claims to have obtained an internal or private poll from somebody. It is from a tweet.


  344. John says:

    What new GOP poll are they talking about?

    And is it the same poll they mentioned last week that stated Romney was behind in Ohio “in high single digit” number?

  345. Wobbie Tingles says:

    Guys are these insiders trolls too? Don’t get mad at me because Romney is losing. But I swear i’m on your side.

  346. Phil says:

    Ok, this is strange.

    Obama winning Dems 96-4
    Romney winning Republicans only 84-12
    Indies – Romney up 55-36! In 2008 Obama won indies 49-48 in exits.

  347. DW says:

    350 – look if American Research Group says Obama is up only 1 point in OH, it is very much in play, and Romney will take it in the end. It was close in 2004, but Bush took it.

  348. Wobbles says:

    9/14/12 10:18 AM EDT

    A new GOP poll fresh out of the field in Ohio has good news and bad news for Republicans. The good news: Mitt Romney’s deficit in Ohio is perhaps not as bad as the seven points the NBC/WSJ/Marist survey released last night has him down by. The bad news: Romney is still losing in the Buckeye State.

    The Republican poll, an internal survey not taken for Romney’s campaign, shows President Obama leading Romney by four points in Ohio. It was conducted this week.

    The numbers underline Romney’s longstanding problems in Ohio, where he’s taken a beating from Obama’s campaign and liberal groups. But it’s actually a sign of the depth of Romney’s hole in the state that the results were greeted favorably by Republicans. Polling in Ohio before the conventions last month showed Romney with an even larger deficit, closer to double-digits.

    So, last month he trailed by double digits, now it is 4..

    It is OVER….

  349. jason says:

    ” acknowledging things are tough there with 53 days to go?”

    Nobody here denies Ohio will be tough to win. Nobody. I have not read one post from any regular here that thinks it will be easy. Some are more positive than others, that’s about it.

    However, only a troll mentions it 87 times a day out of context.

  350. Scott says:

    #347- Phil
    So our three must State–Florida,Virginia and Ohio are all within 1 to 2 points within the glow of the Dem Convention last week according to Ras. NOT BAD!!!

  351. Wobbles says:

    The internals of Ras in VA shows that Romney is actually ahead and will win by 5.

  352. Wobbles says:

    It was tough in 2000 and 2004. It does not take a PhD or ladivadobbie to point out something so obvious.

  353. Todd McCain says:

    Could be trying to lower expectations. Ohio has always been a hard state for Romney. Remember during the Primary??

    Santorum had 20 pt leads in the state — yet in the end Romney won by 1.

  354. DW says:

    In VA there are many religious conservatives who are still pining for Santorum, but in the end will show up and vote for Romney because Obama is so terrible.

  355. janz says:

    How many Obama signs did you see, DW?

  356. DW says:

    364—I was calling for guesses…

  357. Wobbles says:

    Ladivadobbie Tweet:

    Romney backing down on Foreign policy.

    When in reality, we have this:

  358. John says:

    Ohio polls within the past few days:

    ARG (Obama by 1)
    Ras (Obama by 1)
    Zogby (Obama by 2)
    NBC (Obama by 7-oversampling D’s by 10)

  359. Mr.Vito says:

    I drove through my neighborhood… and guess how many Obama windsocks I saw?

    NONE! NONE! Clearly this is a sign of good things.

  360. Waingro says:

    We really need a Wisco poll.

  361. jenny-Romney=Dewey says:

    i’m disappointed in virginia poll! romney should have a lead. again, if romney isn’t
    leading in ohio, va, or florida next week, he will lose. maybe, the american people are leeches who love welfare and don’t care about the national debt.

  362. Wobbles says:

    I saw a dozen on Priuses in Los Angeles.

  363. Robbie says:

    361.It was tough in 2000 and 2004. It does not take a PhD or ladivadobbie to point out something so obvious.

    Comment by Wobbles — September 14, 2012 @ 10:30 am

    Yet the polling generally showed Bush ahead, sometimes narrowly and sometimes by more.

    This place gets more and more like the bunker in Berlin in April 1945 when news we don’t want to hear comes out.

    No one says Ohio is lost. No one. But recognizing that it’s a real sore spot is just living in realville.

    Anytime a story comes out and says Ohio is tough, everyone here goes bonkers and says the story is a lie. That’s not always the case.

  364. jenny-Romney=Dewey says:

    maybe, conservative christians really hate mormons and they will never vote for a mormon.

  365. DW says:

    in Sept 2004, Rasmussen said VA was Bush 50 / Kerry 44. In the end, it went 54/45 for Bush.

  366. Wobbles says:

    Link to the 2000/2004 polls in Ohio please.

  367. DW says:

    on my bike ride last night through the racially mixed neighborhoods, there were Romney signs everywhere…lost count. ZERO Obama yard signs, and only two faded Obama bumperstickers from 2008, and they were on separate cars parked in the same driveway.

  368. rdelbov says:

    Robbie lies and distorts what pollster for Romney says. He says “we feel good” and the race “is in margin of error”.

    Sob sob lie distort.

  369. Wobbles says:

    Everytime a story says Ohio is tough, I get tingles for Dear Leader.

  370. Wobbie Tingles says:

    you guys are just big fat meanies because Romnney isn’t winning. bwhahahahahaha. But i’m totally on your side

  371. Walt says:

    I am awaiting the answer to how many YoMama signs/bumper stickers you saw.

    Also, how many empty chairs did you see in people’s yards?

  372. ericinky says:

    I am not surprised Romney is slightly behind in OH. For weeks Obama was hammering him with nasty ads that built up a lead there. On Fox Sports Ohio they ran the Clinton ad at least every hr during Cincy Reds games, while I never saw a single Romney ad. That has changed. Romney is now battling back with his own ads and I think that will eventually make the difference. The Cincy area is the key to victory in OH, and my guess is he’s running slightly behind Bush in 04. If Romney is ahead by 2/3 points nationally he is even or down a point or two in OH, but there is plenty of time to changed it.

  373. jason says:

    I see Corey has a new standard for interceptions.

    If the interception is “the fault of the receiver” its no longer an interception.

    The NFL has announced that it will be a few weeks before they update all the stats and records to reflect the new policy.

    Corey thought the Bears played “almost as well” as the Packers, notwithstanding they never led and their only touchdown was a gift in garbage time and the score was 23-10.

    In the real world here is how it was seen at ESPN:

    “GREEN BAY, Wis. — You can assemble all the shiny new toys in the world, all the pass catchers and runners and freakish athletes. But an offense, any offense, is only as good as its quarterback. And Jay Cutler was awful against the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night.”

  374. Wobbles says:

    They evidently made up 12 points in a month or so (if you even believe that margin). Ohio is tough, as are other states. NC is tough for Obama.

    Pointing that out 100Xs a day, does not change the obvious.

  375. Phil says:

    One slight difference in the Berlin Bunker and Hedgehog, Robbie.

    Hitler’s situation was hopeless and the war was lost. You are comparing Romney’s tight race to the hopeless last days of the Third Reich?

    Not quite.

  376. Walt says:

    YoMama: “Romney shoots before he aims.”

    Sot of like YoMama with:

    –“the police acted stupidly”

    –jumping in to Treyvon Martin shooting before knowing the facts

  377. Robbie says:

    376.Link to the 2000/2004 polls in Ohio please.

    Comment by Wobbles — September 14, 2012 @ 10:38 am

    Here’s the last bit of data from Ohio in 2004.

    Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 49 43 – Bush +6
    FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 50 47 – Bush +3
    SurveyUSA | 10/29-31 816 LV 3.5 49 47 – Bush +2
    CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31 1111 LV 4.0 46 50 – Kerry +4
    Ohio Poll/UofC | 10/27-31 877LV 3.3 50.1 49.2 – Bush +0.9
    Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 48 46 – Bush +2
    Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31 600 LV 4.0 50 46 – Bush +4
    Clev. Plain Dealer | 10/26-28 1500 LV 2.6 48 45 – Bush +3

  378. Todd McCain says:

    What do we have today, Ddub? NH?

  379. Wobbles says:

    McCain – WH pursuing feckless foreign policy.

    Where are Boehner and Mitch McConnell?

  380. Wobbles says:

    I think Romney has been too aggressive on foreign policy, not aggressive enough on domestic policy this week.

    Next week it will be the opposite.

  381. Wobbles says:

    You are comparing late October polls to early to mid September ones?


    Are you that stupid?

  382. Todd McCain says:

    Romney is following the same game plan for Ohio as in the primary — opponent builds up a lead — pummel the state w rallies, ads and win it in the end.

    Romney will win Ohio. I am actually more worried about Florida to be honest.

  383. Wobbie Tingles says:

    let’s compare late Oct polls to mid Sept polls! yes! yes! bwhahahaha!

  384. Wobbles says:

    Ladivadobbie did not understand the 3 day tracker in RAS and how one single night could be really high for one candidate or the other.

  385. Wobbles says:


    Ladivadobbie lives in a basement.

  386. Wobbie Tingles says:

    Wobbles keep talking like that and i’ll pull the race card on you!

  387. Wobbles says:

    Please go back to KOS – you really should not be here.

  388. Wobbles says:

    Ladivadobbie Tweet:

    Elections are tough.

  389. jason says:

    Some people watched a different game than Corey:

    “Against a Packers defense that was there to be deep-fried, Cutler made bad decisions, repeated bad throws off his back foot, was late with passes when receivers had been open.

    He publicly and animatedly ripped teammates when they made mistakes even though he committed a shopping cart full of his own and did not take back one word or gesticulation afterward. Cutler, for the record, had the same number of touchdown passes Thursday night as the Packers punter, Tim Masthay, in a loss much more humiliating than 23-10 makes it sound”

    Ok, I am through beating up on the hapless Bears.

    How many stupid things has Wobbie Troll said already this morning?

  390. Hunter says:

    I am VERY disturbed by the topless photos of Princess Kate in the French tabloids…

    I would like to burn them in a trash can to show my support for her…

    If someone would be so kind as to send said photos to my personal email account, that would be much appreciated…

  391. Wobbles says:

    Cutler has a bad attitude and is overrated. He cost them the game with 4 INTS.

  392. SusyQue says:

    DW…….no empty chairs

    No signs

    No bumper stickers

  393. Robbie says:

    378.Robbie lies and distorts what pollster for Romney says. He says “we feel good” and the race “is in margin of error”.

    Sob sob lie distort.

    Comment by rdelbov — September 14, 2012 @ 10:39 am

    I am not lying. You just can’t handle what the current situation is.

    Those comments are the comments made by someone who acknowledges they are down.

    What would you expect the pollster to say? We feel bad about the situation?

  394. Wobbles says:

    The center-left daily Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

    “Since the Arab Spring broke out, there have been many difficult moments in the relationships between America and the Arab nations. But few have been as delicate as this one. America hardly has influence in the region any longer, and now sees itself confronted with anti-American sentiment in places where it no longer controls the dictators. Meanwhile, forces that simultaneously exploit and spurn America are gaining influence.”

    “Middle Eastern policy is a thankless task for America. But for precisely this reason — and despite the election campaign — it would be unwise to pour oil into the fire. The fact that President Obama has deployed destroyers and marines to Libya, and may soon send out drones, isn’t a good sign, though. … Should Washington fall into defense mode, as it has in Yemen against al-Qaida, where the anti-terrorism fight is the top priority and there have been civilian victims, then the tables could turn quickly. People in the Arab world want to be more than just a security risk.”

    No, he gave the speech with foam columns.

  395. bio mom says:

    Didn’t someone above say in his interview Romney claimed he had a slight lead in Ohio and Florida?

  396. DW says:

    404 – here is my response from above:

    377.on my bike ride last night through the racially mixed neighborhoods, there were Romney signs everywhere…lost count. ZERO Obama yard signs, and only two faded Obama bumperstickers from 2008, and they were on separate cars parked in the same driveway.

    –I would also point out that in 2008, these neighborhoods were flooded with Obama signs.

  397. Robbie says:

    Hitler’s situation was hopeless and the war was lost. You are comparing Romney’s tight race to the hopeless last days of the Third Reich?

    Not quite.

    Comment by Phil — September 14, 2012 @ 10:40 am

    No, I’m not comparing Romney’s race to a hopeless situation. I’m comparing some of the delusions I read here to the delusions that were believed by those in the bunker.

  398. janz says:

    Romney to receive intelligence briefings starting next week, a courtesy extended to candidates once they achieve the nomination.

  399. jason says:

    I can already see what Wobbie Troll would say if Romney clearly pulls ahead of Obama.

    “If he was a better candidate he would have pulled away sooner”.

  400. Obama insider says:

    Tweet from ObamaDoufus@

    “I just heard this exchange last night between Obama and Biden:

    ‘Joe, I just don’t understand it! When I was 18, my university prof said all we needed to do was befriend radical extremists and they would love us…what went wrong?’

    ‘Barack, they don’t love us?'”

  401. jason says:

    Of course, in the Third Reich they didn’t call Robbies “trolls”, they were spies and traitors.

    And they were shot or hung.

    Robbie is lucky the most that could happened already did:

    He got outed.

  402. Robbie says:

    411.I can already see what Wobbie Troll would say if Romney clearly pulls ahead of Obama.

    “If he was a better candidate he would have pulled away sooner”.

    Comment by jason — September 14, 2012 @ 10:55 am

    Please point out where I have said Ohio is a lost cause.

    It’s amazing how tense people have become that acknowledging what the Romney campaign pollster acknowledged, Ohio is tough sledding, is trolling.

  403. jenny-Romney=Dewey says:

    The Mormons were persecuted and driven out of rural Ohio. Good luck in persuading those conservative Christians in rural Ohio to vote for a Mormon.

  404. Robbie says:

    413.Of course, in the Third Reich they didn’t call Robbies “trolls”, they were spies and traitors.

    And they were shot or hung.

    Robbie is lucky the most that could happened already did:

    He got outed.

    Comment by jason — September 14, 2012 @ 10:58 am

    So now you’re making veiled threats against me?

    And just how have I been outed, because you have said so?

  405. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    A sea of blue except….

    Rassmuslican and some R firm out of FL!

    Everything else, solid blue!

  406. Wobbles says:

    It’s all about me, me, and me!!!

  407. Robbie says:

    So let’s recap the latest insane fight at HHR.

    Acknowledging what Romney’s own team acknowledges, Ohio is tough terrain, is trolling.

  408. Wobbles says:

    Don’t threaten me, I may hit you with my purse.


  409. Todd McCain says:

    417. BLUE BALLS!

  410. Robbie says:

    418.It’s all about me, me, and me!!!

    Comment by Wobbles — September 14, 2012 @ 11:03 am

    Then ignore my comments. I know you can’t because you’ve built your whole parody persona on me.

  411. Sir Albert says:

    The trends are all that matters. The trend is your friend. The trend will reveal the end.

  412. Wobbie Tingles says:

    jason you’re name should be whitey. you people need to stop getting mad at me for cheering on that Romney is behind

  413. Wobbie Tingles says:

    I can’t stand not having attention. But you people are demented for giving it to me.

  414. dylan says:

    Obama should carry far less of the jewish vote in Florida this year because of his recent shananingans with Netanyahu and how he has handled the Libya/Egypt Debacle. That coupled, with juiced up panhandle turnout and the Tampa GOP convention should give Romney a narrow victory, but Florida is going to be tight–in many ways, it isthe new “Ohio” maybe even more bellweather. I would feel a lot better if Connie Mack were running an aggressive campaign and if the jews in general weren’t so darned clueless about voting their own self-interest.

  415. janz says:

    A cogent Victor Davis Hanson column dealing with President Obama needing to review radical Islam 191.

    No one in this administration seems to fathom what the attacks on our diplomatic missions on the anniversary of 9/11 were all about. Instead in adolescent fashion, the president, our ambassadors, and, most culpably, the secretary of state remain sort of stunned that reset, the Cairo speech, the al Arabiya interview, the euphemisms, the ad nauseam “we are not Bush” apologies — all that and more — did not prevent the assassination of a U.S. ambassador, the sacking of a consulate, and the attempted storming of a U.S. embassy.

    Hanson goes on to warn Obama about his own self-promotion in the OBL killing as well:

    In addition, this administration — and particularly the president himself — needs to stop spiking the ballabout killing bin Laden, releasing details of the Special Forces raid, spilling the beans of Cyber warring against Iran, presidential joking about the Predator-drone program, etc. All that comes across as empty braggadocio, and serves to incite our enemies without awing them.

  416. dylan Mack’s campaign has been utterly pathetic. There’s no urgency from him which he needs to beat a incumbent Senator.

  417. Wobbles says:

    I am ladivadobbie.

    I am right.

  418. dylan says:

    Romney needs to put $3-5 Million of his own money into GOTV efforts in OH and FL, now. Triage style. That has to include requesting and filing absentee ballots from any and all people possible. PLease please tell me this is on your radar, Mitt.

  419. dylan says:

    428–I just don’t get it. Who is running this guy’s campaign? I guess these candidates from time to time live in a bubble and cant see the forest for the trees. It is just beyond shocking.

  420. DW says:

    430 – Romney is in this to win it. I am sure he knows exactly what needs to be done to win OH. And I am sure he is doing it.

  421. Wobbles says:

    I need attention!!!!!!

  422. Todd McCain says:

    I am worried about the future of the party electorally. FLA 20 years about was an almost reliable GOP state — now a toss up for the most part/leans GOP.

    The GOP needs to make strong inroads in the midwest — WI, MI, IA and MN to counteract the trends and losses off CO and NV.

  423. Todd McCain says:

    I agree that Mitt needs to use some of his money to leverage an advantage. 10 mil from one of his cayman accounts should do the trick.

  424. rdelbov says:

    I think its been hard for Mack to get through all the Presidential ads. Florida is a big big state and TV is a must.

    I think the race is still winnable but we need either a break on national or state level for him to pull it out.

    Not out of reach but I would suggest that many campaigns, on either side of the aisle, have the same look in early september as the Mack campaign. Then just whammo he wins. Frankly his Dad’s campaign in 1988 looked alot this current one.

  425. dylan says:

    432—One would think. My concern here from Day 1, and i have expressed it frequently, is that Bush narrowly carried OH in 2004 with the juggernaut of all juggernauts of GOTV there. It was a sight to behold. You have had 8 years of atrophy from that effort (that is to say, McCain didn’t do squat to maintain the network). That means Romney has had to rebuild that while at the same time facing a demographic shift that makes OH a little more democratic. Granted, they also lost two EV’s from 2008 with redistricting, but we still need those EV’s. OH needs to be on more that just the radar. Mitt needs to be wringing the washcloth right now with a full fledges assault on all fronts there.

  426. maybe rdelbov but while I remain confident that win/lose Romney will take FL, I am starting be doubtful that Mack can win the senate seat no matter who wins the main event.

  427. MD says:

    Todd – that is why I maintain that the GOP must find a way to become a viable option for thew latino community. The stupid rhetoric of “send Jose home” must end. I am NOT for amnesty at all. I am for showing some restraint.

  428. dylan says:

    Florida is admittedly a VERY expensive state to run ads in. Too many TV markets. It’s like CA. You gotta have major bucks to run comprehensive ads.

  429. Robbie says:

    Here’s the key line.

    Credit for this fog goes to that inner circle of Romney advisers who never liked the Ryan pick and have reasserted their will over a candidate who is naturally cautious. In the la-la land where adviser Stuart Stevens presides, Mr. Romney wins by never saying a single thing, ever, that might rock a single boat, ever. Just keep the focus on Mr. Obama. After all, no president has ever won with an economy like this.

  430. dylan says:

    Win or lose, the GOP needs a soul searching summit post-election where they develop a plan to recruit attractive articulate Latino candidates to sell the brand and the message. Someone credible to go up against the empty suits like Villaraigosa and Julian Castro. It can be done, but it needs to be someone who is “real” and can themselves sell the message.

  431. Robbie says:

    I am starting be doubtful that Mack can win the senate seat no matter who wins the main event.

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — September 14, 2012 @ 11:15 am

    When Mack announced last year, I thought he was a sure fire winner. Is he even trying at this point?

  432. ViceroyArgus says:

    O isn’t writing off NC, just yet. Michelle Obama campaigning there next week.

  433. Robbie says:


    They already have Rubio, Cruz, and Martinez,but I get what you’re saying.

  434. DW says:

    dylan – you are starting to sound like Robbie. You assume Mitt is doing nothing, then lecture him to get doing what you think he ought to do.

  435. Wobbie stop replying to me, you and I will never be friends/get along. Might as well reply to others who are willing to reply.

  436. MD says:

    The deal with Ohio is that it is a huge market for the manufacturing of auto parts. Thus, the “Reagan Democrat” who has an affinity for conservative values is, at the same time, very happy with the bail out of the auto industry. Thus, many who might vote R are tentative or may vote D.

    Don’t shoot the messenger. Go do some research first. It is a big issue in that state.

  437. dylan says:

    I’m not saying he is doing nothing. What I am saying is “overkill is barely adequate” and “too much is never enough.” When it comes to OH and FL.



  439. MD says:

    We already have latino superstars. Now, Cruz joins the list. That is a GREAT start.

  440. I agree MD. I’m not sure folks here realize just how many folks are bending over backwards to find reasons to vote for O. It’s a “can’t quit him” effect that has helped him stay competitive and w/ fairly high approvals w/ so much gone wrong for him. We MAY win this election, but too many out there are g-go-gaga over him and want to feel good by voting for O.

  441. Robbie says:

    447.Wobbie stop replying to me, you and I will never be friends/get along. Might as well reply to others who are willing to reply.

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — September 14, 2012 @ 11:20 am


  442. MD says:

    Some of those have peeled off Author but there are still plenty left. The people at this conference all seem to love him. It is perplexing.

  443. SusyQue says:

    #408…DW…wow…am so glad you shared that with us. What state are you in?

  444. Polaris says:

    Very good news in Ras both normal track and swing state. It confirms the movement towards Romney…and actually once you use the same DRI is consistant with a lot of the other polling out there…which tells me that everyone is seeing about the same kind of race, but some polsters either believe (or are paid to believe) that the final electorate will look like 2008.

    CBS does seem to be a D+8 poll. I fisked Gallup’s internals a day or two ago, and I got a partisan number of D+6 using their own data. I also showed a HUGE movement towards Romney (4-5 points) when I applied Gallup’s own LV model to those numbers…which Gallup themselves alluded to.

    As for Ohio, I think in many parts of Ohio the GOP still has mud on it’s name from some scandals and such a few years back. Also Ohio is always a contest between Cincinatti and Cleveland and that makes Ohio a challege at any time. I can believe that Romney might be behind in Ohio but it’s surely not 7. If Romney is behind, I think it’s within MOE.

    Remember that this is September and a lot of pollster are paid to essentially make news instead of report it. Paid by who? Media outlets mostly.

    Who does the media want to win? Who do you THINK!?


  445. Phil says:

    Thanks, Ben. Oil up a buck and a quarter. Should cross 100 bucks a barrel anytime now.

  446. Robbie says:

    454.I guess our trolls missed posting this blue poll:

    +6 for Romney in NC

    Comment by rdelbov — September 14, 2012 @ 11:25 am

    Nope. I said earlier in the week Obama has given up on NC. Add NC to IN as states Romney has won back.



  448. DW says:

    Even with these state polls still under the shadow of the DNC bump, the battleground states are still MoE races. Once another week goes by, I would expect Romney/Ryan to start polling ahead in these states.

    But with all the gloom here today, you would think that nobody noticed that the Rasmussen tracker is Romney+3, and CBS/NY Times, infamous for their rescue polls could only twist it Obama +3 in their poll taken the weekend after the DNC.

    Then we have the fact that even though the Dem convention was in NC, the state has since gone harder toward Romney. This is because they ran an anti-God, big gov’t convention in the heart of the Bible belt. Dumb move, and it costs them NC and any shot at VA.

    If there is any gloom out there, it should be on the Obama side as they clearly could not hold any convention momentum.

    Then they exposed this week their foreign policy ineptitude.

    Don’t anybody let the trolls get you down. They are the ones that are scared.

  449. MD says:

    We take NC. No worries there.

  450. rjt says:

    459: troll admission

  451. DW says:

    456 – VA

  452. Robbie says:


    WSJ: Protestors storm US Embassy in Tunisia. Embassy on fire. -Tunisia State News

  453. Robbie says:

    463.459: troll admission

    Comment by rjt — September 14, 2012 @ 11:28 am

    Darn, was I that obvious. Shoot!


    415.The Mormons were persecuted and driven out of rural Ohio. Good luck in persuading those conservative Christians in rural Ohio to vote for a Mormon.

    Comment by jenny-Romney=Dewey

    They were driven out of nauvoo illinois, not ohio, and they would rather vote for a mormon than a commie.

  455. Marv says:

    Good morning, Ladies and Gentlemen.

  456. Sean says:

    Concerning RAS swing state, I would think there’s still a couple days left that cover the “sugar high” from the Democrat convention. I’m thinking it’s likely to return to +2 Romney or so by the end of the weekend. Do you all agree?

    Happy Friday everyone!

  457. Walt says:

    Coal prices from 8/10/12 to 9/7/12

    Central Appalachian 12,500 BTU
    Up from $59.90 to $63.85

    Up almost $4 per ton

    Northern Appalachina 13,000 BTU
    unchanged at $65.10

    Illinois Basin 11,800 BTU
    unchanged at $47.75

    Powder River Basin 8,800 BTU $8.50

    Unita Basin 11,700 BTU
    unchanged at $35.60


    Guten Morgen aviator

  459. Walt says:


    My post must have prompted a new thread.

    New Thread.

  460. Ron Burgundy says:

    People, please stop wasting your time and driving yourselves nuts pouring over meaningless polls. The only poll that matters is election day and Romney is perfectly positioned for an EV landslide. Now go do something productive and meaningful with your day.

  461. Marv says:

    #457. Polaris,

    Nice summation………..if the CBS poll is calculated using the RAS party ID, then the result is the same as RAS……Romney leads by three. So, RAS and CBS have likely identified the current state of the race. I would expect that the state polls will begin to fall in line with the RAS national poll by next week, or so.

  462. DW says:

    Arguably the most important poll right now is Rasmussen’s swing state poll, as it eliminates the noise from states like CA and NY that have no bearing on the outcome. The fact that it is tied is very good news for Romney when you consider the states in the poll:

    Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

    NC PA and MI are not really in play at this time.

    So of the remaining states, Romney needs:
    FL OH VA and any one other state.

    In that PA and MI are dragging down Romney’s numbers more than NC is propping them up, Romney has to be doing very well in these other states.

  463. Marv says:

    #461 DW,

    Nice post. You are correct…….the trolls are the ones who should be afraid. A dispassionate examination of the race shows that Romney has withstood the DNC convention and the attending afterglow. Reality has set in again with evidence of a deteriorating economy and a major foreign policy failure.
    Gov Romney’s performance this week has been exemplorary and the voting public is beginning to show their approval.

  464. AuH2ORepublican says:

    #343 and 344, Wobbles, I don’t think that Pittsburg, Massachusetts has anything remotely like suburbs. Did you mean Pittsburgh (notice the spelling), PA?